How should we judge the performance of Team Cameron?
April 30th, 2007
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What will be the Tory vote share on Thursday?
There’s no doubt that all the parties will be spinning like mad in the next couple of days to talk up the prospects of their opponents and to dampen down expectations about themselves. We have this silly game every year so that whatever the outcome all the parties can claim that they have done better than expected. Yawn…Yawn.
But what performances should we be expecting and what, in particular, will be a good result for the Tories. The numbers I will be looking for on Thursday night and Friday will be the national party vote share projection from the BBC based on the outcomes in up to 1,000 key wards.
Last year this gave:-CON 40%: LD 27%: LAB 26%: OTH 7%. If the polls are right and there has been an increase in the Tory position since then then I would expect a share something in excess of 40%. A share below 40% would be bad news and show that the momentum has not been carried forward.
In the Scottish Parliament election and that for the Welsh Assembly I would expect bigger Tory shares than current projections. Polls in those parts of the UK have traditionally overstated Labour and the nationalist parties and understated the Tories.
Mike Smithson
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“The numbers I will be looking for on Thursday night and Friday will be the national party vote share projection from the BBC based on the outcomes in up to 1,000 key wards”
Last year’s BBC projection was based on just 700 wards
I represent 50% of the vote in the poll so it may not yet be very representative! Anyway I think anything below 400 gains for us is bad, anything below 600 good anything below 750 v.good and anything else amazing. Libdem gains below 30 will be a real backward step. Labour will just get thumped; the bigger the thumping the better, even if it means 100 Lib Dem gains in central Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester.
oh and if vote share is below 40% then that’s bad , though I could live with 39.5%+
I see the Tories on about 41%.
It will be interesting to gauge the impact of the terror convictions today on the elections? I know people should vote of local issues, but will people think, good old Blair getting terrorists of the streets, or will the conviction remind them of the dramatic increase in the threat to us since his Iraq adventure?
More locally, news emerged today of the death of a British soldier from Reading. I can’t imagine that any party would use this on the doorstep, but some headlines in the local evening papers about this may not help Labour.
Are there any other news stories that may break in the next couple of days to damage or help Labour?
The good weather, however, will help Labour. It will assist turnout, and people will recall how awful the weather was up to 1997.
Well the Lib Dem vote share is down by 0.00001%. I have been dis-enfranchised because I am working away from home and my postal vote hasn’t arrived in time
4 - I should of course make it clear that the death of a Reading soldier is very distressing news for the town. Deepest sympathies to the family. I hope the local press do not intrude too much. (They tend not to in Reading.)
I think your figures sound reasonable. I don’t think these results will give us any sort of a clue to the next election because thanks to Mr Blair’s ineptitude they have become a good bye message from the electorate to him personally. Imagine you were a Lebanese or just a simple Labour voter watching that delightful little country being pounded to ash ….what message would you want to send him?
Mr Cameron is irrelevant to this election. It’s 100% about Blair. Good riddance to the man. If it wasn’t that it might make the Tories look good I too might have registered my feelings about his last two years in office by voting Lib Dem. Brown though deserves better and for this reason alone I expect Labour not to do too badly. 26-28% The Tories under 40%
4.”Are there any other news stories that may break in the next couple of days to damage or help Labour?”
Last year in the month ahead of the locals they managed to have: Patricia being heckled by nurses after having tried to patronise them, Tessa, her husband & Silvio, Prezza and his erections and the Home Office fiasco with some prisoners…
I wouldn’t rule out Hewitt being heckled by someone between now and Thursday. I suppose they won’t schedule any appearance for her in the next few days!
I say 41%. The best quote I have heard:
“It is Tony Blair’s 10th Anniversary of Power tomorrow. The elections will be a final focus group on his premiership, and a first focus group on Gordon Brown”.
Matthew D’Ancona, on the Today programme on Radio 4, this morning.
8.Andrea, very interesting reminder to the back drop of locals last year. Didn’t it get dubbed Labour’s black Wednesday or was it Tuesday?
7
‘or just a simple Labour voter watching that delightful little country being pounded to ash ….what message would you want to send him?’
Do you really believe that many Labour voters or any other voters, are going to change their allegiance because of what happened in Lebanon 8 months ago,even if Blair had not supported Isreal it would have still happened?Iraq yes but Lebanon?
That’s very true Andrea. I’d forgotten about all that. When you think about it Cameron being on 36-37% under the circumstances must be pretty disappointing.
7. How about what is happening today in both Iraq and Afghanistan being a lot more relevant? Imagine you are a British serviceman or one of their relatives or friends.
4.”More locally, news emerged today of the death of a British soldier from Reading”
didn’t you also have a Tory candidate being beated up a couple of days ago? I read it on Jane Griffiths’ blog
You’d be surprised John. Labour have always set a great store by doing the right thing. You might have disagreed with Iraq but most people I believe gave Blair the benefit of the doubt and thought he did it for the best of motives however misguided. Lebanon proved he didn’t. He really was in the pocket of George Bush. And this hasn’t been forgotten.
12 - people always go on about how “poorly” the are doing considering the Govt’s woes. But leaving aside the question of whether polls today are comparable with those that showed the main opposition doing remarkably well in the past, this doesn’t really hold up. It would be an issue if the Labour vote was holding up “remarkably well” but it isn’t. The reason the Conservatives aren’t doing better is primarily because of the large presence of the LibDems and secondarily due to the consistently large “others” vote (which in probably irrelevant in terms of general elections - I generally argue that for GE purposes we should look at percentages after disregarding others, ie. Con 40, Lab 30, LibDem 20 = 44:33:22).
So it does not simply follow that “Lab woes should equal Tory triumph”, especially outside of a GE election run up when people aren’t really thinking about the next govt when being polled (something which is likely to benefit the Tories significantly if people decide decisively that they want to get rid of a Labour govt, but not if they don’t).
Roger, Labour may “have set great store by doing the right thing” however, what most people regard as the right thing is somewhat different from Labours. A bit like your grasp of reality, not wrong exactly but very different from most earthlings.
How much correlation is there between LibDem councils and Lib Dem MPs. I am familiar with Liverpool, where the LibDems have always done well at council level, without getting any MPs. Does it work the other way ? The South West has lots of LibDem MPs - do they typically have LibDem councils as well ? Maybe one for Andrea
15
So why isn’t this picked up in any of the questions asked by pollsters?
Iraq yes, NHS, Education,Inflation,Trident, Sleaze, Waste etc, but a few weeks of fighting between Israel & Lebanon that has been going on for decades and would have happened whether Blair supported it or not!
We can’t even get the US military to co-operate with a Coroner’s court,the so called special relationship is yet another Blair myth.
I’m not sure the Tories will do as well as many of you are thinking (at least in Kent where I have some idea what is going on!) Labour did get thumped 4 years ago and, whilst there are still a number of vulnerable seats of course, the chance of a 500 plus seat gain I think is stretching it.
Second point, obviously I have a biased hat on but are all the local Conservative associations using the ‘blended’ blue and green Tory stake board? I saw my first few today and they look awful. The text is tiny, the Oak almost impossible to make out (especially if you are driving) and for the first few boards I honestly thought it was for a local independent candidate.
The hand and the flame might have had an ‘image problem’ but the fuzz that has replaced it really lacks impact.
18-Apart from David Alton? or was he simply a Lib?
I think the Tory green tree is great. Far and away the best thing they’ve done in years……however.
BlueFlag. Very funny!
John.and ChisD. I think it was the moment he lost his party. And he hasn’t been able to get it back. All the crazy decisions- education Saudi arms, Trident, Becket at the FO, botched Cabinet changes all stemmed from the fracture between No 10 and the rest of the party and supporters. Sure people cant remember Lebanon but they remember suddenly wondering why they had been supporters of Labour.
Roger if you really believe that dribble about Labour always wanting to do the right thing you are more deluded than I gave you credit for.
Leeds Labour have just been uncovered totally disregarding the code of conduct, and most probably the law, of the Electoral Commission. Is flushing down people’s postal votes down the toilet ‘wanting to do the right thing’?
15 you are now entering snowflake bunker mentality territory roger. Just like the Mistress of Magical Realism you see the same world as everyone else just through a unique and quite disturbing prism.
People are not going to change their vote because of Lebanon; it’s the madest proposition you have ever succumbed to.
I must have missed all the occasions where Gordon stood up to protest at Israel for defending itself. It’s funny but I can’t remember him allocating any troops for the peacekeeping force or anything. Did I miss his great speech where he extolled the virtues of Hizbollah gangsters using Iranian money to finance their fascist worldview’s realisation - the destruction of Lebanese democracy (and if they can Israel out at the same time so much the better).
Blair and Brown - morally indistinguishable and one day you’ll be forced to accept that fact. With upper middle class twits like you pontificating about what Labour stands for it’s no wonder the working class are abandoning the party in droves.
21 Alton, of course. Can’t believe I forgot him - I voted for him in fact. He was a Liberal and then a LibDem. His constituency (Mossley Hill) was abolished in 1997.
20. The tree cont…..It makes them look modern green and tasteful and it has presence. Quite an achievement from one logo. I’d put it up there with ‘O2′ and it might even be longer lasting.
26 - I must admit the the tree is excellent. Labour’s rose now looks all thorny. And after 17 years, the bird of liberty must be due a make over…
kingbongo seems to proffer himself as an expert in upper middle class twits. Perhaps lower middle class twits elude him? I wonder why?
O/T
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6609385.stm
Very irresponsible and a bad decision.
29.Disagree completely. In fact I am gobsmacked that the government ever allowed the media frenzy surrounding this decision. It is one of those times that a news blackout would have been appropriate for all those involved.
Like his uncle, we should have been discussing his contribution in detail after the event not before.
The cynic in me has pondered the fact that this story has been stoked back into life on more than one occasion over the last few weeks.
Des Browne should have done his job, but then he has maybe been too busy trying to keep his own backside out of the fire in recent weeks!
28 no I can recognise one of those wage slave - people who pretend they are drudges toiling on behalf of the evil capitalist machine whereas they are actually ambitius failures who can never reconcile themselves to the fact they haven’t succeeded.
Tend to be less preachy than the rogers of this world (who are always charming and good company) but are boorish moaners with little sense of how they fit into the world, just an inchoate rage that they are neither as clever or talented as they hoped. Me - council estate born and bred working class tory. Twit maybe but definitely a working class one.
30 - they thought it was a PR coup. And believed their own propaganda about the security situation.
31,How do you find a lower,lower middle-class/skilled manual working class late 30s-,who is only just left of centre,and found Mrs.T far too harsh and right-wing,and who is a private home owner?
(I usually say it as I see it,and am realising middle-age is approaching too fast for my liking!!)
What was the Tory PEB about earlier, the environment or the NHS?
A shambolic mess in my opinion.
33 noble, idealistic, heart in the right place and probably a good mate to have. Wrong on economics but for the right reasons; will drift slowly rightwards but will never bring him/herself to vote tory as there is an underlying unquenchable optimism that the Labour movement will make people’s lives better. What the Labour party was made for.
32.No the fact that he and his brother joined the armed forces was the PR coup, this latest example of media mismanagement or manipulation has been down right dangerous.
This story has suddenly become very prominent again following Des Browne’s difficult time in the Commons recently, and the whole media disaster of the returning hostages. But most important we have just lost our 12th soldier in one month.
We have often seen the press respect a media blackout on various occasions when good reason has been given. The operational safety of our troops in general and Prince Harry as an individual seems an excellent reason to me.
As another genuine working plass poster, Roger is simply an insufferable bore. What would be interesting to know is from which of his three UK homes will he be voting? Which authority will be the benificaiary of his Labour vote, assuming that Labour have managed to run a candidate. Roger being Roger his homes are probably in very exclusive areas.
The ridiculous gyrations (first Blair, then the Libs, then Brown, then Miliband, Brown again) and total lack of any political knowledge make the postings somewhat amusing, except when the schoolboy jibes are on show.
It would be interesting for the oaf to get off his keyboard and canvass for the party he so loves. He could go to Slough or Thurrock. Actually meeting real people, might be quite frightening for Roger.
As he has said he dislikes the accents of John Cruddas and Jack Dromey almost as much as that of David Cameron.
36 - I didn’t say it was a PR coup, I said the government thought it was a PR coup. Probably the army did as well - they’re struggling for recruitment for obvious reasons. Simply having William and Harry in the army but not actually being in any danger didn’t fit the bill.
I have never liked the way that so many males of the royal line join the forces, not least because it gives the impression that military service is in some way better then any other form of public service.
But the present situation highlights a pragmatic reason for discontinuing the practice, namely that it is not possible for them to function as a normal member of the service.
Tony Blair was asked the other day what he would have thought if his son had said he wanted to fight in Iraq and he said he “would be delighted!”.
I find the whole Prince Harry debate annoying - it should be a non story. He’s in the army, he should go and if he does, his sacrifice will be no greater, nor will it be smaller than any of the other thousands of men and women who have gone to fight for his Gran. If he doesn’t then some other poor sod who may already have done a tour will need to go in his place.
41 - it is a problem though. Because he will make his grouping (whatever they are called) more of a target. They may cop flak as a result. Better if he does not go.
An analogy: to avoid copping flak in the local elections, Labour should have retired their prince a few months ago.
kingbongo: you really do spurt some drivel.
roger is right that Lebanon was significant, and that is why it was the event that caused the “failed coup” against Blair that in fact didnt fail - it forced him to declare his end-game. It was significant, not for those who left over the Iraq war, and not for right-wingers, but for “liberal interventionists” who were still clinging on to Labour believing that Blair had acted on Iraq on the information given him.
After all, if Blair believed in intervention to stop war, death and destruction, then why didnt he support a ceasefire in Lebanon? The answer was: because Bush said no - the Israelis must be able to do what they want. And Blair agreed.
Call me Notts obsessed if you like, I do live here after all, but I think what happens here will be a good barometer for the Tories.
Terrible night
Tories fail to take Newark and Sherwood and or find themselves inexplicably in trouble in Rushcliffe. Even the most ardent Tory has to except Cameron is in big trouble. The furture’s either bright or dark depending on your view, but it is certainly Brown.
Poor night
Tories gain Newark and Sherwood narrowly, but fail to take Gedling. The ‘Roger’s’ of this world will be smiling about Brown’s new revolution, the Tory right will begin asking questions of Cameron’s strategy.
Good night
Tories gain Newark and Sherwood and narrowly take Gedling by taking 5/7 of the key maginal seats. Politics goes on much the same, Cameron can claim a success, Tories will continue to believe they are on the right track, their critics will insist Cameron will crash again Brown. Basically a no change night.
Very good night,
Tories gain Newark and Sherwood and take Gedling by taking all of the 7 key maginal wards fairly comfortably, and maybe a few more they did not expect. In this territory Cameron should hit roughly 40% of the vote and can claim a strong success on the night and he is on track to number 10. His critics will look quite weak.
Wonderful night
Tories gain Newark and Sherwood and Gedling easily, and the icing on the cake, they also take Broxtowe. (Poor Nick P) If this happens it is probably fair to say the Tory gains will be right at the top end of expectations and they will be over 40%, maybe well over. Labour would now have a mountain to climb and the view that Cameron is well on course to number 10 would be very difficult to refute.
15. Kingbongo. I hope I wasn’t sounding pretentious but the Labour Party has always been an idealistic Party and doing the ‘right thing’ has usually been the motivation of it’s members. I wasn’t making any judgements on those values but it has always been what has separated it from the Tories. I agree that Labour voters might not have always shared the same motivation and during Blair’s time a certain managerial competence seems to have taken over. Funny you should mention Snowflake because she seems to represent these new values more than most.
Well, I have gone with between 40 and 41.99%!
Another good evening canvasing!
I thought it was a great PPB by the tories, although the Swindon rally did seem rather lacking in people.
45 LOL!
Jealously is not idealistic.
It starts with taking other peoples money to fund council jobs and ends with OAPs being put down in filthy NHS hospitals.
45 - purity before power?
45.”I wasn’t making any judgements on those values but it has always been what has separated it from the Tories.”
Roger, I despair sometimes at this kind of blinkered view, there are people in all political parties who try to do “the right thing”. It is like taking 6/7 different routes on different modes of transport, but everyone trying to get to the same destination.
It is the reason that many including all those regulars on PB.com who are out there campaigning to make these elections happen and give us a choice.
50 - don’t be silly. All Tories are evil. Heartless bastards at best.
Pot and Kettle at 37: that was pretty sour stuff about a fellow-poster - are you training to be seanT? If you don’t care for roger’s presence, why don’t you go and post on Devil’s Kitchen or the like where you’re unlikely to find Labour supporters? And yes, I’ve been meeting real voters eight hours a day, and haven’t met a frightening one yet…
Kevin A at 44: the Tories do think they’ll win control of Broxtowe on Thursday, but they are IMO deluding themselves. They also think they’ll win Nottingham, apparently. We’ll see!
Attn Mike Smithson, These new polls are interesting, but do you take any cognisance of them, or are they just a bit of fun ?>
regards
MTF
I should have added, the ones on your site.
43 I said people won’t change their vote because of it. If you think that’s drivel then you are nuts. How would you describe the Jordanian, Saudi , UAE, Egyptian, Moroccan and Algerian Yemeni Turkish etc governments who also wanted the Israelis to be given a free hand at squashing the Hizbollah loonies. Brown’s attempted coup was an embarrassment and I wouldn’t dredge it up.
45 roger; poking you with a stick is irresistible sometimes. I do wish you would reflect on the fact that most people in all mainstream parties feel they are doing the right thing. Most of us want a better life for our fellow citizens. As for your comment on managerial competence I can only say there are many words to describe the current government but competent isn’t one of them.
52. Got to agree, P&K seems obsessed with Roger. Nobody’s anybody til they get their own stalker Roger
42. Either that or sent him out on the front line knocker so he can be told first hand that he’s a lying, warmonger, who allowed himself to be kept in the pocket of an imbecile and managed to outsleaze the tories (a fine feat in itself) by selling honours out the back of a lorry. Allegedly.
Much as I’m sceptical about tree hugger Dave and his newly repackaged pals, I do hope the electorate takes the opportunity to give Tone one last kicking as he exits the stage. I’d hate him to feel he was going out on top and could have won one more time had he stayed.
52 - I too would be surprised if the Tories take Broxtowe, which is why I would consider it some night for the Tories if it happened. as for Nottingham, I would be absolutely stunned.
I fear abstention will sweep the board on Thursday.
As well too that ‘Minor Parties’ (where were the the Libs /LD’s in 1970 ?) will emerge as the nights only sucess story.
Shouldn’t be thus and I (obviously)hope it isn’t.
Re 45, Roger, Us Conservatives normally are looking to do the “right thing” as well. We just differ about what that is because we have differing views of what works and what does not.
57
‘I’d hate him to feel he was going out on top’
Hang on,he’s still got his appearances on Blue Peter and Songs of Praise,don’t forget he’s leaving with us wanting more!
i think it is daft really to try to assess Cameron by these locals, one way or another.
Where I live, the Conservatives are in terminal decline. The lib Dems won five out of seven seats in the constituency last year and are likely to win another this year. Does this mean that the Conservatives will get less seats at the next General Election? i think not.
Much of the Tory gain at the moment is anti-Labour (more specifically anti-Blair) feeling in places where the Lib Dems are not strong enough to give the other pair a run for their money, rather than any grat love for the non-conservative Conservatives of Cameron.
Having just finished two weeks of canvassing, I still remain a little sceptical of the prediction of widespread Tory gains. The north/south split looks the most likely scenario with Labour losing big-time in the south but performing reasonably in the north (by expected standards).
Labour’s by no means popular, but I’m not convinced that the northern areas that voted for Thatcher and Major from 1979 to 1992 are anywhere near convinced by Cameron yet. A much more prominent role for the likes of Hague and Davis wouldn’t go amiss. That said, I’d still predict an advance of one sort or another in more or less every region (except perhaps Scotland), but it will be a very varied picture.
Re 62, Zebidee, where abouts do you live?
44 - “Tories fail to take Newark and Sherwood and/or find themselves inexplicably in trouble in Rushcliffe. Even the most ardent Tory has to [ac]cept Cameron is in big trouble.”
Very interesting …
Regarding the prognosis for Cameron, I read recently that for the Tories to have the same proportion of council seats they had the last time they took power from Labour in 1979, they would need to make 2,000 gains on Thursday. Puts it into perspective, doesn’t it.
ChrisD and Benedict. You’ll have to explain how Mrs Thatchers support for the South African apartheid regime could be seen as “doing the right thing”. It’s true her government and husband and son had strong links to the regime but that doesn’t exactly equate to doing the right thing
31.
Class is what you are - not where you came from.
Kingbongo is as middle class as they come - and his denials only compound the certainty! As for the twittery - readers can draw their own conclusions.
64. Southport, Lancs these days, Benedict, although I am being tempted to move again.
Re 66, Roger, thatcher did not support apartheid, so stop talking b*llocks. What she did was not to put in sanctions, keep nagging them behind the scenes.
Re 68, many thanks Zebidee. No Conservative areas near by?
Good post Mike because its important that we can see through the spin (and expectation management).
I’ll start with some facts. Last time round IDS was Tory leader, they were at 32% in national polls and ended up getting 36%. This was a very week Tory performance four years ago - so week that people may remember Chrispin Blunt appearing at the close of polls to call for IDS’s removal. He was forced out later that year.
Given that the Tories are around 6% higher in the polls than four years ago then 42% should be the target for them. Given the nature of these elections (with a strong bias towards the shires) then getting a vote share well in excess of current poll ratings is a must.
IIRC four years ago Labour polled around 30% and the Lib Dems around 27%, so bearing in mind current polls with Labour 4 or so points down and the Lib Dems 1-2 points down a 42/26/26 split would be expected. This represents a 5% Lab to Tory swing and a 3.5% Lib Dem to Tory swing.
On these sort of swings then Labour will be looking at net losses of 750+ and the Lib Dems of 300+.
1,000 gains for the Tories is therefore representative of their current opinion poll ratings compared with four years ago.
There’s an interesting article from Lib Dem campaign guru Mark Pack on Lib Dem Voice which compares 1977 and 1995 local elections (both two years before a change of government). His calculations suggest that 2,000 Tory gains would be indicative of an general election winning performance:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/why-are-the-conservatives-being-so-downbeat-about-their-election-prospects-734.html
D’oh
‘week’/'weak’
65
‘Regarding the prognosis for Cameron, I read recently that for the Tories to have the same proportion of council seats they had the last time they took power from Labour in 1979, they would need to make 2,000 gains on Thursday. Puts it into perspective, doesn’t it.’
Did you by any chance read it in one of the Lib Dem leaflets that youv’e been distributing?
65 clutching at straws when New Lab are going to get a hammering , whatever gloss you try to put on it, 700= seats is my guess, and several councils to boot
71 - Excellent point Dan re spin and expectation management.
Reinforced by the superb example you go on to give. I’ll remember to be on the look out for similar posts.
I can’t imagine that many people will judge Cameron on what happens this week. Create a bir of momentum and cheer up the faithful perhaps, but if we’re looking to an election in 2009-2010, I can’t see many people looking to this Thursday as being decisive.
The week after, however, with the NI assembly likely to sit and Blair to resign, and the Labour leadership/deputy leadership contenders coming into the open, now that could be the one that sets the public mood. One thing we haven’t talked about is how Cameron will handle Blair’s actual resignation, apart from the obvious trashing of Brown - will he damn with faint praise, condemn outright, or weep in public about how much he wants to be like Tony?
My view based on canvassing in Worthing as to how national politics will impact our local elections:
There has been a strong feeling that people want to give Labour a kicking, but as the local elections are, and have been for a while, a straight LibDem-Con fight, people can do that by voting for either of us :), and are continuing to vote their normal preferences as a result. Lots of Labour voters are either not turning out or voting LibDem (they say), but interestingly this year Labour have managed more candidates than for several years - core getting more zealous as the support degrades?
Cameron has hardly been raised on the doorstep. Those who do mention him tend to be from one of two groups: either fairly right-wing Cons who are vaguely dissatisfied, but will probably still vote Con except where there’s a UKIP candidate; and Greens anxious to tell us they don’t believe the blues are green, and who will vote LibDem where there’s no Green candidate.
Ming has, interestingly, been mentioned more than Cameron to me. Sadly, but not unexpectedly as far as I’m concerned, voters are not impressed with him (I’ve only had one Ming-fan, tonight, after 6 weeks!). Quite a bit of nostalgia for CK, so if he was to get a prominent role within the party at some stage, I think we might even get a bit of a bounce!
Local issues are dominating the campaign, as a result of which I don’t think there’ll be to much evidence to draw on for national trends; but hopefully something to keep me smiling on Thursday night.
Interesting post by Guido regarding our soon to be prime minster’s attitude to working with an SNP led coalition in Holyrood.
http://www.order-order.com/2007/04/gordon-shant.html
RadioClyde report,
http://www.clyde1.com/article.asp?id=13532
73 - No. But the facts are correct - see Dan’s reference to Mark Pack’s article.
Re 77, James D, I take it you are an LD? If so do you have contact with Mark Senior?
Oh poor Dave comes to Glasgow…and he almost met Rosie Kane’s megaphone
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1365920.0.0.php
Ah, all those related people standing for Holyrood, sometimes for different parties against each other
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1365921.0.0.php
Rik W are you there? I have just got back from this evening’s Reading/Newcastle game and apparently there is local news about Tory Controlled Wokingham Borough Council objecting to Reading Football Club’s current planning application to extend the Madjeski Stadium from 24500 to 34000 capacity. After Reading FC’s magnificent success over the last 2 years there are probably 50000 plus local fans who will take a very dim view of this. Can you name the Councillors who have made objection to Reading FC’s plans and are they seeking reelection this time?
81.Andrea, priceless.
82 - In D&G there are two brothers standing in the same council ward. They haven’t spoken in four years and one has reported the other to the electoral commision!
85. Max, what happens when the cold air emanating from Brown in No10 meets the hot air coming from Alex Salmond in Holyrood?
86. Or better still the artic blast.
85. Max, are they Indies or standing for some parties?
88 - IIRC one is SNP the other a Liberal but don’t quote me on it!
‘do you have contact with Mark Senior’
The Seti project has finally produced some results?
89. Max, do they have chances to get elected?
If it’s the last seat comes down to a fight between them, it can be entertaining!
83 - Goupillon - I am here but I am not aware of Wokingham objecting to an extension to the Mad Stad! They are objecting to the one-way IDR scheme!
Re 92: I shall check it out tomorrow.
Nick Palmer at 52. Nothing I have ever said has stooped to the level of the adjectives by your party supporter Roger. Sleazeball, Slimeball, Pompous oaf, deranged are just a few. He also makes comments that are frankly slanderous, he was at it again yesterday.
Strangely your silence on these is somewhat similar to your silence on your party organiser in Leeds. So come on instead of being like Gordon brown at a Governemnt announcement, are tose regular Rogerisms “sour” or just fair comment.
I post about Roger no more or less than many others. As for stalking, Roger’s weird obsession with Cameron and his cycle shorts is strange, but as a Labour supporter his superiority allows him to do this.
80 Benedict , James and I have had contact . In fact it caused a little confusion because there is apparently a 2nd Mark Senior who also lives in Worthing of whom I was totally unaware .
79
If a Lib Dem says it then it must be right!
65
ATTENTION !
LIB DEM SPIN ALLERT AT 65
Re 95, Mark, I was wondering how much you get out and campaign is all. I used to think you did, but now wonder if you are not an armchair campaigner.
Can you shed any light on that?
93 - I would be interested to know more.
On another subject a few Lib Dem posters are appearing in my ward. So far I have counted just four in extensive travels across the ward today. Comparing notes with a Councillor I used to serve with on RBC we agreed that a few years ago the place would have been a sea of revolting luminous orange.
The canvassing returns continue to be very good across Reading and I strongly suspect that on the Reading East side we are going to see some excellent results. Labour and the Lib Dems seem to be struggling to get their message out this year. The LDs seem to be focussing (if you will pardon the pun) on Redlands and Katesgrove. Despite being second last year in Park ward they appear to have given up there but the Greens are fighting a strong campaign.
As Andrea indicated earlier, Wazir Hussain (Conservative Park ward candidate) was subject to an assault from some bully boys outside the Mosque where he was canvassing. It has just made us even more determined to help ensure that he beats the Labour nasties in Reading.
Never before in my time in Reading (since 1995) have we delivered so much literature in so many wards, and done so much canvassing. It will be interesting to see what effect it has this Thurs!
98 Benedict , I have done very little active campaigning for many years so it would be fair to decribe me as mostly a settee campaigner .
I see a few people rubbishing as spin the point that the Conservatives need 2,000 net gains to take them to Labour’s 1996 or the Conservative 1978 position. I guess that is because they don’t expect the Conservatives to get anywhere near that 2,000 figure.
The serious question though is - why not? Why are 1996 and 1978 (i.e. the results before the last two times an opposition went on to win a general election) not a sensible benchmark to use?
To dismiss 1996 and 1978 out of hand because you don’t like the story they tell - now that really would be spin!
On the leaflet/poster front for my ward in Guildford (Stoughton), lib dems are outdoing anyone else with the orange diamonds, you can’t move without seeing quite a few in your eyeline.
Tories have been cannier with leaflets however. This morning, as a traffic problem on my road was happening as per usual (caused by schools, buses, too little road etc.) they put a leaflet through my door promising to deal with it. Great timing.
101 of course they are not!
Times are different and you dont gain 2,000 seats in one haul. It is typical Dan Falchikov spin!
99 - so, since this is a betting site, I have to ask, what are the odds on you winning? (Think you are in with a better chance than me!
)
Drove along your road the other day, and couldn’t see a single Tory poster? Are you sure you live there?
Nasty news about Wazir Hussain. Poor guy, I hope he’s all right, and not put off.
Agree Labour meltdown in progress…
Re 101, Mark P, Sorry, I don’t have the numbers to hand, but how many councilors did Labour have in 1996, and how many do we have now?
I thought the comparison was solely to 1978.
101. Careful you don’t trip over the Libdem benchmark of success whilst trying to place the Conservative one out of reach.
101
What are the comparable figures for 1964, 1970 & 1974,or don’t they fit the picture?
101
‘To dismiss 1996 and 1978 out of hand because you don’t like the story they tell - now that really would be spin!’
More a question of not believing Lib Dems.
The stupid Tories objecting to the Madj Stad objection may well lose them a ward in Reading (the one with 2 elections).
Yes the traffic is chronic but what an own goal! (groan, yes, I know….)
I’m expecting that Labour’s vote is still going to be fracturing all over the place, so that the Tories won’t pick up as much as they could from Labour’s decline.
That’s a situation eminently more recoverable than if the electorate were to start to move towards the Tories as the preferred instrument to get rid of Labour.
Taking last years BBC figures as a basis, then, I could easily envisage Labour losing 3%, with Con, LD and Oth each picking up ~1%.
107 - I’m not sure that 1964 would be useful. That is back in the days when a fair bit of the country was represented by Rural District Councils (largely independent of party).
1970 (from 1971 Whitakers)
Bootle - C 30 Lab 25 Ind 1
Bristol - Ind 74 Lab 38
Liverpool - C 102 Lab 48 Ind 6 Lib 4
Cardiff - C 57 Lab 18 PC 1
Oxford - C 44 Lab 13 Ind 8
Brighton - C 65 Lab 11
Sorry, no Scottish numbers
Times have indeed changed. The Tories do not need to sweep Liverpool and Bootle to have a good night. 2000 gains is not realistic - or needed.
I think Tory opposition to the stadium expansion could hit them in Wokingham Borough, which contains a large part of Reading and hence Reading fans (Earley, Woodley etc.). They are already in trouble over a school closure there. But they should hang on to the council.
It may of course all be Reading Evening Post pro-Labour spin. But I have to agree with Rik, that it does appear that Labour’s last strong fiefdom in the south outside London is cracking.
Bit off topic. but does anyone know if the BBC will be putting a lie feed on their website?
I expect so. The politicians on the panel usually feed us a few lies throughout election programmes.
Oh, you mean LIVE FEED! - dunno!
Some good points raised here today.
63.
The Conservatives have won the South - they have won a landslide - they now need to work hard to win the North, Scotland and Wales. Some credit is due to Cameron - more needs to be done.
I agree quite strongly that Cameron needs to do much more to win over the North of England. Giving Davis and Hague a higher profile presence would help. Cameron must virtually camp in the North - he must be seen in the North of England as much as possible. There must be more on policy. This need not be a detailed policy programme - no opposition has ever released detailed policy this far before an election. However he can still issue specific general policy ideas that will help the North.
The other urgent areas that need to be focused on are Scotland and Wales. The Conservatives need to reform and reinvent themselves here. It is a given that unchanged there will be no progress. In particular giving the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives more autonomy would help. They should be seen as equal goupings, with English Conservatives under the banner of a Federal Conservative Party - this could include the Conservatives of Northern Ireland.
Perhaps the Conservatives should also seek to make an accommodation with the Nationalists in both Scotland and Wales. These parties were moved too far to the left before, but they are changing now. The Conservatives should work with them to encourage a move to the centre ground and seek an alliance that can govern Hollyrood and Cardiff in the future. Being a Scottish or Welsh nationalist should not make a them anti-conservative, it should make them pro-conservative!
Other reform ideas should be developed.
101 & 103
It is true that we should not expect the Conservatives to gain 2,000 seats in one go - that is absurd - records show no one has ever won that many in one go. However I do agree the Conservatives need to hit the crucial 48% target before the next election. One of the first to raise this point 4 years ago on another forum. Before the next election the Conservatives need to be on 48% - that is the requirement. Requiring this 2 years before is not essential.
111 The number of Labour councillors peaked in 1996 at 10,929 . For those interested in year by year totals you can find them on Page 23 here http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-026.pdf
115 - “Conservatives need to hit the crucial 48% target before the next election”
No. That sort of thing simply does not happen these days. We are not living in the days when the Liberals got 3%, and there were virtually no other parties. I know Labour had some silly opinion poll ratings in the 1990s, but what was their best in the locals? And remember, the Tories do not need to win as big as Labour did in 1997. Cameroon would be happy with a 30 seat majority.
113.Rob, I found this for text message results but nothing else?
118. Cont. for Scottish results http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6575761.stm
re 116, Mark, many thanks, So 765 gains would put us around 1994 Labour levels, 3 years away from a must have election which is where we are now.
So 2,000 seats Thursday should be 765.
I have to say i would be very very pleased with those kinds of gains!
115
‘Perhaps the Conservatives should also seek to make an accommodation with the Nationalists in both Scotland and Wales’
They should be supporting the SNP’s call for an independence referendum, on the basis that it will clear up the uncertainty for inward investment and that they will vigorously oppose it.
I also note that Labour now have less councilors than in 1978, and are set to lose more, possibly as many as 700. That would be a serious problem for Labour if it is that bad.
According to Wikipedia list of opinion polls, Sarkozy lead back up to 53/47 in Ipsos poll being published on Tuesday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2007
114 -
freudian slip! I’m out of the country right now, and I don’t know if I can face watching it on the narrowband setting!
Weren’t there many thousands more seats available to win in 1979 - no unitary authorities etc?
Alex - that’s why the 2,000 figure is based on what proportion of councillors were Labour after 1996 or Tory after 1978.
115: If you want Welsh Conservatives to work more closely with Plaid, then you have to be seen to be less Unionist. You have started by dropping your vindictive plans to abolish Welsh Assembly, but need to go further and support a full Welsh Parliament. There is already broad support for this with some of your AMs & candidates - But you need to make it offical policy and attack Labour on their ’so far but no further’ stance, which is not supported by Welsh electorate.
The Conservatives don’t need 2,000 more councillors to be on track for victory. Back in 1979, the Liberals were far smaller in local government than they are now. The Conservatives would have to drive Labour down to a very low level to gain an extra 2,000 seats.
I’ve opted for 40-41.99%.
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http://politics.guardian.co.uk/tonyblair/story/0,,2069539,00.html
Dog whistle to John Reid ????
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44: Kevin,
The Tories effectively control Newark and Sherwood anyway which might not work in their favour. Having the second highest council tax in the country and with all the opposition to the proposed new Growth Point developments might well equate the Tories with being an unwelcome council even if some of those things are not exactly their fault. The advent of secret Cabinet decision making has also upset a lot of people.
Yes they may well take Newark and Sherwood outright but I would not be amazed or read too much into it if they don’t.