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Labour’s wannabee leader continues to trail the Bullingdon boy

Two threads this morning both from new YouGov polls in the Daily Telegraph. The first coverered in the previous story shows a sensational rise in support for the Greens ahead of next week’s election for the Edinburgh parliament.

The second, which is the papers main lead, is from the main April survey by YouGov. The focus is on Gordon’s position in relation to Cameron in the forced choice question of whether, if people had to choose, they would go for a Brown led Labour government or a Cameron-led Tory one. The graphic above reproduced from the paper shows the results.

This is, of course, a phoney question because it ignores the Lib Dems and other possibilities. But the fact that YouGov have been asking it in this form for so long gives us a real chance to observe trends - which don’t look good for Gordon and Labour.

The main general election voting intention has some good news for Blair’s party - a significant cut in the Tory lead. The headline figures are with changes on the last survey by the pollster - CON 37% (-2): LAB 32% (+1): LD 18% (+2): OTH 14% (+1).

Although their numbers are different - the trend of a decline in Tory support and an increase in the Lib Dem position - are the same as that found by ICM on Wednesday.

What’s extraordinary is that even with the Tory lead being slashed back the Brown-Cameron position continues to get worse for the chancellor. Still we have to assume that Labour MPs know what they are doing.

In the Labour leadership betting Gordon is now at 0.11/1. In the general election “most seats” betting the Tory price continues to tighten.

Mike Smithson

YouGov finds 9% support for the party in the Scotland elections

An extraordinary poll next Thursday’s Scottish elections by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph shows a big surge for the Greens suggesting that they might provide the biggest sensation in next Thursday’s election - and maybe not just north of the border.

Given YouGov’s record in Scottish elections (they were by far the most accurate pollster last time) today’s figures add further weight to the evidence that the SNP is going to end up as top party in the Scottish parliament next week.

The “funny” polls that have been appearing from firms that are not listed as members of the British Polling Council and don’t following the industry standard transparency rules should be ignored.

So what are we to make of the big surge for the Greens? An explanation might be that there’s been a change in YouGov’s approach to the smaller parties. The following is from Peter Kellner - the boss of the firm:-

He says that in previous Scottish polls “..those people who responded ‘some other party’ were then taken to a list of smaller parties, such as the Greens and Solidarity, and asked which they would vote for.In this week’s poll, we presented the full list of parties together – starting with the four larger parties, and then the four significant smaller parties: Greens, Scottish Socialist Party, Solidarity, Senior Citizens Unity Party..It may well be that the apparent rise since last week in support for the Greens is largely the result of this change in our methods. If so, it is consistent with past polling experience: that if respondents are reminded of the names of smaller parties when they are asked how they will vote, support for those parties is generally higher than if they are not named.”

This sounds spot on and I very much welcome the change in YouGov’s approach.

The big support for the Greens begs the question of whether there maybe similar increases in party support in Wales and in some English local elections next week. My guess is that there will.

In the Scottish election betting the 0.44/1 of the SNP to win most seats looks even more tempting this morning. Take almost everything you can.

Mike Smithson

Could there be a shock west of Offa’s Dyke as well?

While all the focus for the May 3rd elections has been on the possibility of an SNP win in Scotland is there a possibility that Labour’s position might not be as secure in Wales as the betting and the limited number of polls have suggested?

Certainly, unlike Scotland, the battle for the Welsh Assembly has failed to attract the interest of punters, as the above Betfair prices show, with barely £2,000 having been traded since the betting exchange opened its market three months ago.

The real problem is that there has been very little polling data about and what there is has showed Labour to be holding up remarkably well. A new survey is expected in the next couple of days which might give us a clearer idea.

Betting interest has probably been dampened by the one major voting intention poll that showed that Labour was only down 2% in the top-up list section on what it achieved in the totally different political environment of 2003 when the party was enjoying a 42% share in the national opinion polls.

Polling in Wales has a history of inaccuracy and I simply do not believe that the Labour vote in the Principality is immune from the massive decline that has taken place nationally.

The issue, of course, is that PC is nothing like as strong as the SNP and any major move away from Labour is likely to split three ways benefiting the Tories, the Lib Dems and PC. The result, given the electoral system under which this election is taking place, is that a diminished Labour will still probably end up with most seats - which is what the betting market is about.

I never let a UK election go by without putting some money on and I have risked a tenner betting against Labour. This seemed a much more interesting bet than putting the same sum on the party to win a maximum of 50 pence.

Mike Smithson

Last Thursday I suggested that a good French election bet was to buy Royal on the Spreadfair 10-25 spread market. This gives 10 points to the runner-up and 25 points to the ultimate winner.

I bought at the 10 level taking what proved to be the right gamble that she would make the second round. This means that the bet cannot be a loser. If Sego loses I break even. If Sego wins I make 15 times my stake level as profit.

The question I now face is whether to close the bet down at the current 13 level making a sure profit now of 3 times my stake or do I hang in to a week on Sunday and hope to get the full amount.

Which way will the polls go? Does Sego still have a chance?

My knowledge of French polling is limited and certainly at the 49-51 splits there must be a chance.

There’s also the gender issue. Will France vote for a woman? In other countries when faced with the prospect of a female leader for the first time voters have tended to back the woman.

My instinct is to stay with the bet but to keep watching it closely.

Mike Smithson

The Guardian steps up the rhetoric against a Brown coronation?

The feature of its ICM poll that the Guardian focuses on this morning is the hugely negative response to questions about whether Gordon Brown should take over from Tony Blair unopposed.

Under the heading “When in doubt, trust the voters” the paper’s main leader notes “Many Labour people have persuaded themselves that a leadership contest to succeed Tony Blair would not be, in that dreadful word so beloved of party loyalists, helpful.”

The leader argues, “Our ICM poll today exposes the trap into which Labour risks falling as a result of such understandable but misguided views. When ICM asks about the way Mr Blair’s successor should be chosen, the response is conclusive. Fully 78% of all voters answer that Labour should have a contest, against only 16% who think they should rally around the chancellor and elect him unopposed, as Labour orthodoxy increasingly favours. Most striking of all is the finding, by a three to one margin, that Labour’s own supporters think there should be a contest too. Labour leaders, in other words, are out of touch with the mood of the public and of their own voters…Labour MPs and activists are betting the house on a strategy of electing Mr Brown unopposed. “

With all the recent focus on whether or not Miliband was going to put his hat into the ring there has been hardly any discussion of what voters will think if this is how the country’s next prime minister is chosen.

One key factor - a contest would have blocked Cameron and the Tories generally out of the news for nearly two months and whenever this has happened the opposition party’s ratings have slumped.

A reason why the Tories are down substantially at the moment is that it has been hard for them to get a look in because of the focus on Labour. Oppositions need constant publicity.

As it is Labour has made itself a sitting target for the Tories especially as Gordon looks set to wait in the wings for seven weeks as the only candidate while process in gone through.

Latest Labour leadership betting has seen the Brown price tighten to 0.13/1.

Mike Smithson

Big boost for Lib Dems in latest ICM poll

The ICM April survey for the Guardian tomorrow is just out and the headline figures show a reduction in the Tory lead and a three point increase in the Lib Dem share. The totals with changes on last month are: CON 37%(-4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 21% (+3). Of the minor parties both UKIP and the Greens are on 2%.

There was also a drop in the Tory lead when voters were asked the “named leader” question - “who would you vote for if it was Cameron’s Tories against Brown’s Labour and Ming’s LDs?”. These are the shares compared with last month - CON 40% (-3): LAB 28% (nc) : LD 20% (+2).

The survey took place at the weekend after a bad week for the Tories when there was a series of poor Commons performances and the Greg Dyke issue.

The big winners in the polls are the Lib Dems who have seen a big increase in their vote share in the two surveys that have come out today. CR had good numbers for Ming’s party this morning.

UPDATE: Other points from the poll:-

Mike Smithson