Poll puts Obama ahead for the first time
May 1st, 2007A new poll tonight from the US firm, Rasmussen, has put the black senator from Illionois, Barack Obama, ahead for the first time in the race for the Democratic nomination.
The pollster notes that most of the survey took place before last week’s TV debate of all the democrat challengers in south Carolina. A general view was that Hillary Clinton came out of that on top.
Rasmussen has been the most Obama-friendly pollster for some time and this latest survey compares with the 21% Clinton lead reported earlier in the month by Murdoch’s Fox News.
In the Real Clear Politics polling “head-to-heads” which averages all the major surveys Obama has been performing better against all the Republican challengers than any of his democrat opponents.
Thus the GOP front-runner, Giuliani, is 4.3% ahead of Clinton but is nearly one point behind Obama.
This race has got a long way to go although Betfair make Clinton the 1.32/1 favourite for the nomination with Obama on 2.5/1.
Those who got on Obama when we tipped him at 50/1 in May 2005 must be feeling pretty pleased with his progress.
Mike Smithson
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As perhaps the only person on pb.com who is in the odd position of actually not having bet on Obama and staked my money on Edwards, I’m pleased to see that my man is nice and steady and broadly on an upward trend, I don’t expect to see him on more than 20% in a hurry though.
That short odds lay on Clinton is beginning to look very interesting if this kind of polling continues and makes its way through to punters.
o/t new market at WHills (if you fancy losing your cash for 10 years…)
Who Will Be P M In Ten Years ?
AS BLAIR CELEBRATES TEN YEARS IN OFFICE - WHO WILL BE PM IN TEN YEARS’ TIME?
With Tony Blair celebrating the tenth anniversary of his accession to the position of Prime Minister, bookmakers William Hill are inviting gamblers to look ahead another decade to predict who will be Prime Minister in May 2017 - and they make David Cameron 5/2 favourite, ahead of 7/2 second favourite Gordon Brown.
Hills also offer 6/1 David Miliband; 6/1 George Osborne; 12/1 Ed Balls; 12/1 John Reid; 16/1 Yvette Cooper; 25/1 Chris Huhne; 33/1Lembit Opik; 50/1 Charles Kennedy;100/1 Cherie Blair or Euan Blair; 500/1
1 “As perhaps the only person on pb.com who is in the odd position of actually not having bet on Obama”
Don’t worry, we”l have a whip round for you, Yokel.
2 They quote any odds for David Herdson?
6/1 George Osborne! They’re having a laugh!
C4 says two polls showing Labour drawing level with the SNP are out tomorrow…..
6. but which pollsters?
A serious one or the strange ones (like SO and the other one with many consonants)?
6. Alex Salmond is terrifying…but extaordinary polls nonetheless!
7 MURK?
Yokel, don’t worry about not being on Obama. The amounts we could get on were tiny.
In Mike’s book (why is there no pb.com shorthand for that?) he states that some political bets — such as this one—are for the satisfaction of being right, rather than for generating piles of cash.
Evening all
Re: 2 - Well, I wonder what price you would have got on John Major being Prime Minister in 1992 back in 1982. Blair to be Prime Minister in 1998 would have been more predictable in 1988 though.
Looking at the “field”, I think we can discount Brown and Reid fairly quickly and, much though I would like to see it, an LD majority Government doesn’t seem that plausible either so we can dismiss Chris, Lembit and CK.
On the Labour side and assuming the party goes into opposition at some point in the next ten years, Miliiband and Balls look the likely favourites to succeed Brown especially if the party stays in Government beyond 2009 but loses in 2013-14. 6s about Miliband is very cramped and I’m not sure about Ed Balls so 16s Yvette Cooper is a possible.
On the Tory side, IF the party wins power in 2009, it’s far from certain either Cameron or Osborne will make it through to 2017 without mishap and if the party loses again next time, both may be out. Looking for a Conservative longshot, however, may not be a bad idea. I hear good things about Brooks Newmark and I suspect Hills might be tempted to offer 33s or similar. That would be my bet if I were forced to get involved.
On BBC radio they said there were two polls consistent with what has gone before. I wish they’d make their mind up.
9. yup, PtP
11 - the idea that Cameron could become Prime Minister and be deposed without losing an election is a bit far-fetched.
one will defo be ICM.
12.
It could be both things! the SNP could be 2-4% ahead but that could mean level on projected seats.
Told you it was gonna be interesting.
2. You have to factor in the possibility of Scots being excluded through Scotland becoming independent.
5. And if Osbourne has been chancellor in those 10 years, will 6/1 cover inflation?
7. Reminds me of a body-builder - Mister UK.
9. Oh, no, Peter, I checked and it’s Mruk and not Murk.
Re: 11 - No, Alex, you’ve misunderstood me. I think there are two scenarios:
1) The Conservatives win the election in 2009 and then lose power in 2013/14 after which Cameron resigns/stands down.
2) The Conservatives lose the election in 2009 after which Cameron is challenged by a Right-wing candidate and loses/stands down.
If you think Cameron will win in 2009 and still be PM in 2017, then take the 5/2 with Hills though I think it’s an incredibly skinny price.
3. Behave….
No denying it. I missed the bet/lay potential of the man in its enterity because somewhere in my head was the phrase ‘too risky a choice’ completely forgetting that its not always about picking the winner…..
Its becoming obvious that the more risky choice for the Demycrats is the current favourite in this contest so my lay at short odds is ok.
As for the bouffant loving Edwards, I expect his odds to drop becauise, if he can hang in, he will poll better early in the primaries than his numbers suggest. From what a couple of people I know in the US who take an interest in these sorts of things he looked rather well in the TV ‘debate’. If he keeps it up he’s going to well responded to.
Edwards owes me no favours now after making money out of the wild fluctuation in the odds before his announcement on his campaign.
All this, however, pales into insignificance Peter compared to a story in the Sun today. It suggests that Lawrie Sanchez doesn’t think he’s actually going to keep the Fulham job. Tghe Irish FA have a bit more money floating about thanks to that TV deal signed with Sky the other day and rumour has it Lawrie would like a bit of it….
Wikipedia:2017
In 2015 the European Federation’s decision to transfer London to the euro region Nord et Pas-de-Calais caused great unrest in England. Col. Harry Windsor led dissident English troops from their enclave in the Kingdom of Scotland on a triumphant march to the capital. After attempts by Alex I to establish a puppet regime under Andrew Murray were thwarted, leading London financiers urged George Osborne (renowned as the slayer of Brownite socialism) to come out of retirement and accept the restored title of prime minister.
If these Scottish polls are confirmed I’d be interested in seeing if there is a market & bookies reaction. Anyone who took decent odds on Labour that have been available in recent days could be even more quids in.
I’d certainly be interested in getting on the SNP to top a previous bet on them a while back because if they drifted. There might be an even more profitable no lose situation emerging than the one discussed on here in the last day or two.
By the way Hazel Blears at 14/1 with Hills for Deputy Leader still looks interesting, especially if Harman doesnt make it. Those odds would drop if that happened. If only Betfair would bother I think there’d be money playing the variations there.
18,I think it more likely Cameron will narrowly lose in 2009,and as is likely,the Tories gain a good harvest of extra seats,DC will stay leader of the Opposition.
One thought has occured to me-whoever wins the next election will,as a late filip in thye next parliament,the 2012 Lodon Olympics.
Yes,it is expensive,but beautiful,exhilarating to comtemplate.Might the winner of the next election have a very good chance of the Olympics adding a huge start in winning the 2013 election?
21.
Betfair was at 3.7 at 5pm, now it’s at 2.5 for Labour.
Re; 22 - Patrick, the presumption is NOT that Cameron is challenged immediately after the 2009 election. If after a couple of years, the Conservatives are not seen to be making headway against Labour, I think there could be a challenge.
O/T but just looking at the polls recently done on the site and the average expectations work out as the following.
Lib Dem - 26.75% vote share, 80 net gains
Conservative - 40.75% vote share, ? gains.
Labour - ? vote share, 521 net losses
How do the missing figures work out, will others be static? If so it suggests that the consensus of opinion thinks about 440 tory gains would be the expectation. Not sure what labour vote share would lead to their suggested number of losses.
The other consensus figures are as follows (it will be interesting to see how close the collective wisdom of the site is to the actuality).
Labour in Scotland - 40.5 seats
Labour in Wales - 25 seats
17 Andrea - Sure it’s not SMERSH? Or U.N.C.L.E. ?
Just noticed that R & T have about 90 seats disappearing from the main three so that would make 350 tory gains, the consensus figures are remarkably similar to the R & T predictions by the way, maybe they should just ask us next time.
Talking to myself here but the R&T vote figures are more different than our seat predictions. R&T expect tories to be on 1.75% less and Lib Dems on 2.25% more.
23. There’s clearly a feeling that Labour are firming up.
13/5 on Labour is still be available with Paddy Power idf anyone fancies topping up.
Anyone wanting to try to bet and lay via Betfair has missed the boat for the moment as the gap between bet and lay on Betfair is large. If you fancy that the conventional bookies will start to ease the SNP though maybe there will be more opportunities in the next day.
I’m always bemused how quickly these things move on what is essentially hearsay - they correct themselves even quicker too!
Who Will Be P M In Ten Years ?
Ed Milliband.
Polls showing Labour closing on SNP. I’m disappointed but not surprised.
15 - I would agree that one is likely to be ICM although in the past couple of years IIRC the Scotsman (who have been running the ICM polls) has brought out its final poll on the day of the election itself.
I assume they’ll mention them on the later editions of the Scottish news or on Newnight Scotland so if I hear anything I’ll let y’all know.
You will need to flick between that and the leaders debate on STV
25. I’m curious as to how Mr S thinks Labour is overstated in Wales and by how much. Bear in mind they got 37% in 1983.
My view is 24 seats at present. They could stagger up to 25 or dip to 22 depending on whether the ant bloc in several seats ege Bridgend, Swansea West,Cardiff South and Wrexham is cohesively against them.
19 Sorry, Yokel. Couldn’t resist it.
Glad to see you’re keeping your priorities in order. Had a soft spot for Fulham until they sacked Chris Coleman. Now I hope they get what they deserve. Laurie full time for NI must be good for NI.
The Democrat nomination is like a 16 runner handicap in which you can safely delete 12. Shame they don’t pay 1/4 the place. I make Edwards third favorite - reasonable value at sevens. And the race has barely started.
Thanks for the article Mike, but I have little enthusiasm for anything other than my own battles at the moment!
There is an awful lot of walking in this campaigning game!
33 - I’ve seen more than enough of the leaders debates allready. Unbelievably tedious. With the obvious exception of the wonderful Ms. Goldie!
31 - It depends. The last one was a YouGov poll showing (IIRC) a 9% SNP lead. ICM have tended to show a smaller SNP lead so the reports may not be comparing like with like.
37. and consider that they have 2 sets of figures. If they have a trend narrowing in 1 vote and not in the other, how would they report it?
I assume based on what I heard on Channel 4 that the SNP are still ahead but because of the bias in the system (surprise!), the SNP need to be 2% or so ahead to break even on the seats. I guess if they both get the same number of seats but the SNP get more votes, there will be quite some argy bargy as presumably Labour as incumbents would get first go at forming a government.
If the LDs refuse to get into bed with Labour (and I hope they do refuse), will the Tories get into bed with Labour in order to prevent an SNP led government?
37. Since for the Tory Party it is all really about building for Westminster and trying to give David Mundell company, how many FPTP seats you expect and will any of them help get you more Westminster MPs.
40.
If they did, I don’t think I’d be a happy bunny.
40. Their wisest strategy will be to give the SNP the rope of a Minority government and let them hang on it.
42 - to all Scottish Tories, what would you prefer, a Lab / Tory government or an SNP / LD one?
40. But it’s possible that they won’t have the numbers in any case. SNP+LD+Greens+potential survivor Trots is likely to outnumber Lab+Con if SNP is the largerst party
41. The Tories will win Edinburgh Pentlands. Otherwise, hard to see them winning many other FPTP. Perhaps Ayr and/or Eastwood.
I would love to think that someone could remove that charlatan Jim Murphy from Eastwood, even if it was a Tory!
46.
We will hold onto Galloway, Ayr and Pentlands and gain Dunfries. Things are also looking good in Renfrewshire West and yes Eastwood.
40. Scottish Tory ’strategy’ - to have policies, but no intention of being in government to implement them. Might as well say ‘a Tory vote is a wasted vote’.
Scary scenario:
Lab and SNP with the same number of seats
LD and Con with the same number of seats
2 Greens, Margo McDonald and Tommy Sheridan
who would run Scotland in that scenario?
Tommy and Margo?
There has been some evidence of the Labour vote solidifying in Scotland. Suggestions to this effect have appeared on pb.com and not just from Labourites.
The key issue is whether Labour can get the vote out. If they do, even with a lot of shedding of their previous vote they would still be hard to beat such was their superiority and could still be close to the SNP seat tally at worst. If those still inclined to vote Labour don’t turn out, its most definitely lights out for Labour.
That to me is really whats going to decide it.
There is also the phenomenon of shy Labour types, even in Scotland.
46. Pay attention, Stuart. Jim Murphy is the MP for East Renfrewshire/Eastwood - not the MSP.
47. With the relative positions in the polls of the SNP and the Tories, they won’t overtake the SNP in West Renfrewshire and will lose Galloway.
50.”If those still inclined to vote Labour don’t turn out, its most definitely lights out for Labour. ”
Why isn’t comment in UK to give partial turnout figures at various hours of the day as it is done in other countries?
It could be useful.
44. An SNP minority one would etheir best bet I think. Letting the SNP get mired in unpopular Govt decisions periodically stopping them when they ebb back they might not only be vulnerable only to Labour.
40 - There is absolutely no chance of the Tory party going into coalition with Labour.
47 - That’s pretty much what I’ve heard but with another possible surprise.
51.
Such an assesment does not reflect the reality of an individual constituency campaign both in Galloway and elsewhere.
I read that counting machines will give a live update of the count…but can just candiates and agents next to them see them or will they be projected somewhere on a big screen for TV (and us)?
50.
Early postal vote turn out in my area shows it is up, even though there has been some probs with getting the votes out to people.
Also nice day on thurs and Lab vote defo firming up.
The SNP here have hired a company to cover th eplace with posters (seem them at it today) this has had a negative affect here and peed people off.
56. I like that idea. No interviews with the politicians just cameras on the big screens and the candidates faces.
That’ll do nicely.
56 - So far as i understand the media will have access to them and will ‘call’ results prior to the count being finalised.
57 - IIRC there are more postal vote applications than in 2003 so it’s no surprise that the number of them returned has increased. So it may not be a true reflection of turnout although I suspect it will increase a bit.
Great news about the Obama poll. Not so good about Labour eroding the SNP lead.
2. What about Anthony Blair as PM in 10 years time? Are Hills laying a price on him? I’d be interested at long odds. Mind you its a long time to tie up your money.
59. Thanks Max. Very good as things can be a bit faster
Anyone know the likely time of declarations in Wales, will it be relatively early i.e say 11pm - 1 am.
Re. 19, is that the Irish Football Association (NI) as opposed to the Football Association of Ireland (Republic of Ireland)? As a Republic of Ireland fan, I’d be very pleased to see Sanchez replace the woefully overpromoted Staunton.
57. 59. Of course it helps if your postal vote arrives before you go to work abroad
62. The Press Association election 2007 site has a full list of expected declaration times, for Scotland, Wales and the English Councils.
64. “The Press Association election 2007 site has a full list of expected declaration times, for Scotland, Wales and the English Councils”
http://www.election.press.net/ScotWalesDecs.html
65. Hmm doubt I’ll be staying up til 4am. But seems odd some of the big city ones have the later dec time. Would have thought the larger & more rural the place the longer the declaration time, not the the other way around.
Not sure how reliable the Press Association expected declarations time since they expect Leicester City Council being declared at 2 AM. The only problem is that Leicester will count on Friday afternoon
44. SBS, there is more chance of a Lab/Libdem coalition and they do have a bit of previous form together.
Annabel Goldie ruled out any coalition deals, the SNP will work with anyone but the tories, Labour will not be seen as a popular coalition partner by anyone and the Libdems…..
Yet more voting concerns in Scotland.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/6611191.stm
68. And, of course, the better the Greens do, the harder it is for a 2-party coalition to have a majority - exciting times.
Somones been betting heavily on betfair
An extra 8000 quid since an hour ago.
The reason for the strange Hills price movements….
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007200168,00.html
71 - Apparently somone placed £12,000 on labour today.
On another thread someone asked about odds on Nicola Sturgeon as next first minister. 8/1 with William Hill.
72.
You don’t do that unless you know.
74.
Must have the job of filling in the blanks in the postal votes then
Is there a WA Special on Doughty street tonight, Anyone got link.
63. I do indeed refer to the original Irish Football Association, and the one that currently controls football in NI.
There’s no chance of Sanchez going South. None. I suspect this will be his last international job. Sanchez really wants to be a league manager again. Whilst he will no doubt do so at some point, he’s going to do better staying where he is for now with NI on a fulltime basis.
He can’t lose by staying put, his stock is likely to go only one way and thats up. He’s dropped into a team thats just getting a decent pack of players that he plays to a distinct and consistent working system. Many are still fairly young. The granny rule and half interested types have been kicked out and those remaining really want to sweat. Some are better than the league standard that they are playing in at the moment. He also has a striker with a Lineker like instinct for the net, given the chance. Priceless.
There’s apparently an improved handcuffs deal available to keep Sanchez in NI for another 2 and a bit years at least if Fulham don’t hand him the job. Sanchez is now apparently keeping his options open and is looking to see if the IFA wish to invest some of their Sky TV money in both him and a few other developments. The Sun report is just the latest suggestion of a few over the last few days that he may not be leaving NI, as everyone expected. Other clubs may come looking for him if Fulham dont hand him the job but the IFA should be in first if they have half a head between them.
You guys need Brian Kerr back now that McCarthy is in a sound job. Ok Staunton is a bit cack and can’t add the magic ingredients but the issue is also the players. You just don’t have the quality in depth you used to. Everybody knocks on about the Charlton days but Charlton had a good set of players, he simply added that bit of something that got them performing and qualifying for tournaments that they should have done so before he came along.
76. Err, … at the top of this page!
Funny they are not doing a special on Scotland, huh?
The Times’ “leader” suggests to vote Labour in the first vote (or Libdems when they can beat SNP) and Conservative in the second vote
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article1733810.ece
O/T, Liverpool- Chelsea has gone to pens. Robben’s just missed one!
It seems there’s a Populus poll in The Times
80. All over…
79 The leader mentions a Populus Scottish poll in the paper “today” ie tomorrow Wed .
Yeah says small lead (for snp) but does not give numbers!
Can someone tell me why Mr S sees a Lib Dem stand still, ie.e matching gains frrom Labour with shipping seats Tories as not good. The Tories are on the up, and where the Lib Dems have space to attack Labour it is their most entrenched positions. Views.
For comparison, Populus had SNP 4% ahead in constituency vote and 7% in regional vote in mid April
84 - thought you were in the know according to your earlier posts.
Not on the polls just the result
88 - fixed the counting machines have we?
lol.
nope just on the ground in a seat the snp need to win and have said for a while there is no surge.
90.
Well in ”12% swing” Hamilton South there is quite a different..air. This election is very local.
I think you are right and here there is no huge local issue.
Do you think you will win Hamilton?
Aaaaagh! 10 years ago how we believed and we were wrong! I was Labour then and now like millions of others have learned the error of my ways!
Looking forward to Camo leading Britain forward to new greatness!
92. “Do you think you will win Hamilton? ”
Afleitch is a Tory. I’ve never been in Hamilton South, but I would eat my hat if the tories will win it
94.
I believe our candidate will come in strong 3rd and increase her vote share. Margaret Mitchell will also be returned to represent Central Scotland in the regional list.
So will the snp ?
Is this really news if it repeats the same lead?
And to my knowledge the chances of Tory voters, voting against the SNP, to keep Labour in power is utter nonsense. This insults our intelligence. Telling Tories to vote Labour, is like telling McCarthy to join the Communist Party! Clearly someone out there is totally detached from reality.
Why is the Times even making such a suggestion when it has only a handful of readers in Scotland anyway? Aren’t they going to alienate all of their readers in the UK? This is commercial insanity.
icm poll has snp with one seat lead.
populas has snp two seat lead.
not got the figures yet.
Hamilton South is more likely to fall to the SNP than East Kilbride even though EK requires a smaller swing. As to whether it will depends on the turnout.
95. ” Margaret Mitchell will also be returned to represent Central Scotland in the regional list”
I don’t think it was in any doubt, wasn’t it?
Even if the tories won’t have a great Scottish elections, I thought that John Swinburne and Carolyne Leckie would have fallen before Mitchell anyway. So SNP list gains would have come from them
100.
Thanks for info.
I thought Hazel B looked much better than I’ve seen her for a while. It was a pity Paxman was on such tedious form. He was even worse with Salmond. It’s a pity he doesn’t allow his guests to speak. Looks like Scotland is on a knife edge. There was a radio program several months ago when I was in Scotland and in Curtis (?) they said that the Nationalists always lose at least 7% of their vote in the last few days!
100. “As to whether it will depends on the turnout.”
I think quite a lot of seats will depend on it. If the “I always voted Labour, I don’t like them very much now, I won’t switch, but I can stay at home” type of voter will show up at the polls or not. If they vote, Labour can save some seats, if no, it’ll be a bloody mess for them
99. It depends what kind of seat predictor they are using. scotlandvotes.com uses the ‘Baxter’ method. In one recent poll, the Tories were on 12%(-4) and Labour on 30%(-5). Under the Baxter method, this meant the Tory vote was reduced by 1/4, while the Labour vote was just reduced by 1/7, so it predicted NO Tory FPTP seats in Scotland! I think uniform swing is a better predictor.
99 -based an a uniform swing, may happen may not but it will all come down to turnout. This may disadvantage Labour if they cannot get their vote out. From what I can see on the doorsteps they are not that enthused at the moment. Ours are more enthusiastic.
Hazel Blears has just said on Newsnight that we can’t have a general election after Brown’s succession ‘because general elections can destabilise the economy’. This is horrific on so many levels.
Also I’ve come across something from the Mail on Sunday a couple of days ago which confirms Benn is in difficulties with getting on the ballot paper. Recently he was reported in the New Statesman to have asked for MPs from Jon Cruddas’ campaign. Now this:
‘Labour deputy leadership candidate Hilary Benn is so short of support he has asked front-runner Alan Johnson if can ‘borrow’ some of his. Benn fears it is the only way he will get the 44 MPs’ signatures necessary to make the start line. Londoner Johnson gave viscount’s son Hilary a traditional cockney two-word reply.’
The recent YouGov poll of Labour members was very good for Benn. But it won’t count for anything if he doesn’t get on. I wonder what is it about him that MPs dislike/mistrust/feel ambiguous about?
91. Hamilton South might be a good example of how successful the SNP will be on the night, but it would be interesting to know if their activists are reporting a uniform swing in Labour heartlands generally or if it is very patchy?
Sorry should have said that one of their guests a psephologist called Curtis said that the Nationalists always lose around 7% of their vote in the last week of an election
54. Max - might your ‘extra surprise’ be Roxburgh and Berwickshire by any chance?
107. Blears’ comment on the economy was hilarious - a real classic of the political bullsh*t genre.
109
Labour also loose a share of their vote as past opinion polls have shown (to give a less slective analysis).
109.
John Curtis knows his stuf on all things Scotland.
108. Chris. I think another variable is the 2003 SSP vote all up for grubs in constituencies this time. Some seats have an higher SSP % to get than others. It can make the difference.
107. Henry. Have you seen that Blackman-Woods has backed Blears? I recall she was with Harriet some months ago, do you recall the same?
And I checked Ann Black’s NEC report. Those who tried to cut the number of nominations required to 22 were Wolfgang and Shawcroft. It speaks volumes of the confidence they have in their candidate to achieve the 44 figure
Do you agree that Meacher probably lives in another world?!
I heard Hilary Benn say some weeks ago that he had 34 signitures and was confident of getting the others he needed.
Curtice, isn’t it?
On a side issue jo swinton is looking hot on newsnight scotland
109.
I’ve met him! He knows a great deal, but he was offering quite a selective opinion - look at the final 03 and 99 polls and see the Labour share fall.
I don’t know about Scotland, but after the wobble that I reported last week I’ve become more optimistic - personally swung nine LibDems to Labour in this evening’s phone canvass. I’m still running into a steady trickle of ‘not this time, maybe at the GE’ responses but it’s looking better than a week ago.
Oh and 43 and 38 were Labour’s final poll ratings in 2003. They got just under 35% on the night.
103 - surely even you can’t believe that represented a good performance from Hazel?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1733913.ece
the Times poll but the list vote figures are not mentioned
119. Afleitch, some can argue you’re being selecting too as you can also quote the System 3 final poll where Lab was over-estimated by less than the Mori you’re quoting.
The thing is not that SNP or Lab lose support in the final week IMO. It’s that those polls were rubbish in first place
Aaron she wasn’t good but if a bully keeps asking an impossible to answer question there’s a limit to what she can do about it. As I had nothing good to say about her performance I thought I’d mention her looks!
122. Quite right Andrea. I’m sure we can place 100% trust in Nick Palmer’s personal canvassing results though.
107 Its a different constituency Henry. The MPs are looking at things from a much different view. We’ve seen the sanee thing with the Tories in the past.
14/1 with Blears ….umm. I have bets on Hain, Johnson & Benn…no Cruddas and I don’t intend to. There’d be room for Hazel at 14s because I’m beginning to think Harman is in a few diffs. Those odds would fall a fair bit if she made it.
121. Marcia, the constituency lead is unchanged. Always 4%.
I suppose the regional lead is down or the headline wouldn’t make sense
113. Yes I read Ann Black’s report and was going to flag that up that point to you on here, but I thought no-one else would be interested so didn’t. Roberta Blackman-Woods was a Harman supporter. I’ve known her since she was a councillor and let’s just say she is a career minded politician. The fact that she’s so clearly ditched Harman for Blears speaks volumes to me - I think she thinks Blears will get on the ballot, but Harman won’t. And she’s probably right.
As I said in an earlier post the electoral system has an in-built bias in favour of Labour which means that Labour can lose thevote but win the election. Now that really has the potential for a crisis -especially if the seats are even!
124. Sooty, I won’t comment on canvassing. I was already told off last year for being doubtful about voters telling the truth to canvassers. I don’t want to repeat the experience!
113. Michael Meacher appears quite delusional. The Guardian diary had this in today:
· Exciting news, next, from the seemingly unstoppable Labour leadership campaign of Michael Meacher MP. From a promising 30 confirmed nominations in February, when he launched his bid to succeed St Tony (Sky News, 22/02), we see the MP for Oldham West and Royton has, by his own admission, advanced to a splendid 55 signatures in March (Sunday Mirror, 11/03) and an even more mighty 24 last week (Guardian, 27/04). Quite a feat.
125. Yokel, yes there’s a case for a bet on Blears at 14s. Her parliamentary support has cut into Harman and Johnson’s a little. I’ve got a saver on her at 50s.
130. Henry, I think last week in the same interview he claimed 24 supporters in 1 question and then a couple of questions later they were 22.
From the list of McD’ endorsements, I think it’s ahead of MM (but probably not enough anyway) as some people like Cryer and Abbott who clearly use the word “nominate” (so they can nominate him just to let him run) have backed him. If an MP wants just nominate someone to have contest, he/she will back the one with more chances to reach the threshold not the other one. Does it make sense?
113. Will be interested to see how Margot Macdonald and Tommy Sheridan fare. I know Tommy is running as leader of Solidarity, but I just feel that he is a one man show. Anyone think that both of them might suffer if there is a real swing against Labour on the day and people are determined to vote tactically on both ballot papers to see the other main parties strengthened?
I was asked to take part in a Yougov this evening - it has a closing date of 3 May 4 p.m. Seems a bit late for that poll.
131. I think whichever way you look at it neither McDonnell or Meacher will get on the ballot. Of the two I respect McDonnell more and think he has really grafted round the country. That said I can’t stomach he quotes on the IRA. Some of the policies of the Labour Representation Committee which he chairs are practically communist.
132. IIRC Margo has almost 2 quotas last time, so she can afford to lose some votes this time.
I think the great majority of people have already decided how to vote by now. The only thing will be if they’ll turnout to vote.
130. 50s…goddamnit! Good on you.
131. I think of those that will be nominating just for a contest they’ll go for McDonnell. Whether he gets on doesn’t really matter to them since those MPs in that boat tend to be under pressure in their constituency parties. I can’t see Meacher’s team (if he has one) putting leftish MPs under pressure through the grassroots, though McDonnell supporters will.
134. yes, I pretty much agree about their chances. I wonder if MM will stand down at next GE after this debacle bid.
“Some of the policies of the Labour Representation Committee which he chairs are practically communist” yup, they’re not much different from our Communist parties manifestos. Mind you, we give them Cabinet positions
137.”I can’t see Meacher’s team (if he has one)”
it seems he has no campaign manager. Or at least McD’s campaign manager couldn’t find who the hell he was!
136. I had a tenner on her at that price. Someone on this board alerted me to the odds after I’d dismissed her chances (it was prior to her officially announcing she’d stand) and I thought I had so much money tied up on other candidates it was small insurance. I also have Johnson at 6s, Benn at 10s, Cruddas at 100/1 and not a bean on Hain or Harman.
139. I saw a named press contact for him recently and googled his name and he’s involved in anti-privatisation of public services campaigns. Can’t remember his name now. I’ll never forget his ‘launch’ where he had only two MPs there who subsequently said to journalists that they were not even guaranteed to vote for him. The best part of the press conference however was Meacher’s own mobile phone going off. What a catastrophe.
133. Marcia, is it a Scottish politics one or is it more general?
138. Could we swap Meacher for an idiot politician from Italy then? Who would you recommend we got and do you have any daft pictures of them on a beach.
142 -it was only about Holyrood and only a few questions as well - just asked, would I be voting for? If so for whom on the different ballots and which party do you think ran the better campaign?. Maybe for the election night programme.
144 dearie me - should have typed would I be voting? ignore for! Bed! too much campaigning. Good night.
143. Henry, we can give you Vladimir Luxuria!
144 Marcia ,you seem to get asked to participate in every Yougov Scottish poll , I though they had a large panel from which a random sample was drawn . Perhaps there are not that many Scottish voters in the Yougov panel .
146. Just read her Wikipedia entry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Luxuria
Fair swap.
146. Thats a brand of upmarket vodka isnt it?
147 - still up - no I don’t get asked to participate in all of the Scottish ones. I got miffed when another Scottish Yougov poll was published and I was not asked. Maybe they pick me now and againbecause of what I entered into their questionaires. Anyway i’m getting nearer to £50 and the more the merrier!
Now off to bed.
150. I’ve worked out that I’ll be almost retired by the time I get my £50 from YouGov. And by then it’ll be worthless. Bit like my pension.
148 - That is a terrifying site. She certainly would not do well on the ever popular - http://sexymsp.com/v2/
Allthough I note her less than impressive looks have not precluded some noble gentleman from giving her an impressive pearl necklace.
And just to try and contradict me…
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2502080.ece
This article seems very lightweight, doesn’t mention names and doesn’t stand up for me. Yvette Cooper, a prominent Brownite is a Harman supporter. Nick Brown spoke at a Cruddas Campaign event and Tom Watson is rumoured to be backing Cruddas too. I’m sure every candidate has several Brown supporters on their books since so damn many MPs are supporting Gordon. It sounds like it’s come from Benn’s people - if Brown was not to get involved his people wouldn’t brief in the way. Last throw of the dice for Hillary?
I thought that Gordon Brown was trying to move away from the New Labour celebrity culture?
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=668872007
154. To be fair the Queen’s former press secretary hardly counts as a celebrity.
The fact is neither of these polls is that neither of these polls is from Yougov and they are therefore WORTHLESS. As Mike pointed out all other pollster were wildly innaccurate in 2003. The is a long history of over-estimating labour support in most polls. Take the by-election in Scotland last year as an example. A safe labour seat, with a majority worth weighing rather than counting, and an opinion putting Labour firmly ahead. They lost by a wide margin to the Lib Dems.
The appearent small lead picked up by the unreliable pollsters will be a wide lead in the actual result, as shown by the Yougov polls - of which there have been 3 in the last week - one a super-poll, and all showing a clear SNP lead, with labour on less than 39 seats.
I feel sorry for the chap who put £12,000 on Labour with Will Hill on Monday - obviously he or she does not read this site, and acted on the rumour of a Labour lead that has not materialised. The level of disinformation being put out is astonishing.
Scotsman poll now up via http://www.scotsman.com
156 - I agree to a point with you - the polls have really been static for a few months give or a take a couple of points. A bit like 1997 rather than 1992.
I see the SNP vote has also gone up in the Constituency vote.
The poll I think is again underestimating the Conservatives and smaller parties, as they always do. But to whose expense?
160.
prob at the cost of the snp as the smaller parties get their votes from the list as does the SNP.
So more greens less SNP also think the tories will do better than this poll again on the list.
160 from your own canvassing are the voters fed up with Labour or not?
155.Henry, the headline says it all. I am getting bored with these constantly trotted out lists of backers, it really is turning into Brown’s party piece. Back to the leaders debate.
162.
Yes; I expect current Labour voters (not those now in the SNP camp) to switch to minor parties if they are still ‘disgruntled’ by the time they reach the ballot box.
162.
From our canvass they are not falling over themselves to vote for us, however over the last few weeks it has become clear they don’t want the snp and will “hold their nose and vote Labour”
locally we are down about 3pts.
Where are you based Fred?
165 - beware - remember the Tory canvass results in 1997.
Livingston.
167. been in the game long enough to spot it
(also my snp mates tell me roughly the same)
Something to note:
”ICM found that support for the SNP has remained largely static since The Scotsman’s last poll, conducted at the start of the five-week campaign…”
So it’s it’s first ICM poll for over a month
While Labour are up 5, the SNP are up 2.
I expect Labour will be 8% behind the SNP on the Constituency vote, and 4-5% behind on the list vote. This takes into account the strength of the smaller parties - the SNP-Labour aggregate will be significantly lower for the list vote. This will damage Labour much than the SNP, as tactical voting in the constituency vote is set to hurt Labour hard.
Two excellent trading bets, not strictly arbs, have been identifed recently by Caveman and I have availed myself of both. 4/7 SNP versus 7/2 Labour and 4/7 Sarkozy versus 7/2 Royal. Identical opportunities. I have backed both to the same stakes. Basically backing both options at eg £7 to win £4 and £1 to win £3.50. Net result is £7 at 6/7 on the odds on shot instead of the available best odds of 4/7.
I am very pleased with both positions mathematically and intend at present to let the bets run. However I feel much more comfortable with the Sarkozy bet than the SNP bet!
I took Will L to task the other night for his lack of success in tipping a political winner and then met the full storm of Robert Cullen’s disapproval! Will L I am hoping you get this one right. We are on the same punting side at present. Here’s hoping!
In 2003 of the 7 polls conducted prior to the election all except Yougov over-estimated Labour support by an average of 4.5%.
If we make this adjustment for 2007 then the non-Yougov polls fall into line with the 3 Yougov polls. SNP 8% ahead in constituency and 4-5% ahead in list.
Goodnight all
The main debate on Scottish TV about the polls was on turnout. It is likely that there will be a much higher turnout than last elections according to the polls. This will probably be bad for the SNP who have a much more committed voter base than the other parties. If turnout looks high on Thursday my advice is to bet against SNP. I am beginning to get a feeling that Labour may scrap in. Jack McConnell seemed to happy on the TV tonight and Alex Salmond’s body language was not good.
174.
Why would turnout make any difference whatsoever. The point is that reliable pollsters pick this up - and reflect any increase in turnout when they survey people - Yougov expect 60% of people to vote - 10% up on last time, and gives the SNP a clear lead on this higher turnout. To argue about how McConnell or Salmond look is absurd - its what they say that matters, and it is McConnell who has been showing total panic and desperation.
Only something that changes people minds alters outcomes, and nothing has happened since the Yougov polls last week to change anyone’s mind. The arguments have all been the same.
Per Wikipedia, Ipsos poll to be published Wed 2 May:
Sarkozy 53.5, Royal 46.5
(previous day Ipsos was 53/47)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2007
I have always thought that the USA is ready for a woman president, (but not Hilllary) and that it is also ready to elect a black president (but only if he is a Republican like Colin Powell rather than a dodgy liberal northern Democrat).
Therefore, If Hilllary is the candidate, the Republican candidate will be elected President. If Obama is the candidate, the Republican candidate will be elected preside