French election competition - round 2
May 2nd, 2007-
Can Ségo still beat Sarkozy
Predict the winner of the French Presidential Election and their share of the vote to up to two decimal places.
Your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result. If you predict the wrong winning candidate, a penalty of three percentage points will be added to your score.
The entry with the lowest score will win the competition.
Tie-breaker
What will be the highest percentage vote score by either candidate in any of the 96 départements in metropolitan France (ie the mainland + Corsica only)? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places.
The competition will use official final results as released by the Interior Ministry and verified by the Constitutional Council. In the event of any dispute, the Organiser’s decision is final.
Entries close at 9pm BST Saturday 5th May.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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I predict Sarkozy 53.5%, Royal 46.5%. The highest vote will be 67.0%.
BTW, am I alone in spotting a striking resemblance between Sarkozy and Mr. Bean?
Royal 50.1 Sarkozy 49.9 - Not sure that I would back this with real money though.
sorry highest vote would be 64%
Sarkozy 52.35
Royal 47.65
Highest vote 65.85
Sarko 52.75
Royal 47.25
Highest vote 63.21
Sarkozy - 50.07%
Royal - 49.93%
Highest Vote will be 68.24%
Sarkozy 51.1
Royal 48.9
Highest vote 64.7
Sarkozy 51.09%
Royal 48.91%
Highest vote=67.55%
Sarko 52.5%
Sego 47.5%
Top 65.0%
Sarko 53.3
Sego 46.7
Top 70.9%
Sarkozy: 51.4%
Royal: 48.6%
Top: 71.2%
Sarkozy 54.13
Royal 45.87
Highest 68.82
Hopefully this time, some people will understand the meaning of the word “win”.
Sego 53.5
Sarko 46.5
Top: 62%
Tbh I don’t expect Sego to win in the sense of thinking it is the most likely result, it’s more like when you play the pools and you know that there will be an unlikely result occasionally, so you just stick down Wigan to beat Man U etc. and pray for the best!
On that not: come on Sego! The debate starts in 5 mins I think?
Royal 51.2
Sarkozi 48.8
Highest vote 71%
Actually looks like the debate starts in two hours, whoops.
If the polls keep showing that Sarko has a smallish lead, why are so many happy to write off Sego. Are the polls really that reliable?
Have to say I would still rather see Sarko win. Sego strikes me as deeply anti-British and uninformed about international affairs. One of those French people who rants about Les Anglo Saxons etc.
Just makes me wonder why Nick Palmer is backing her. Could he explain how it is in the British national interest for Royal to win?
Sarko 51.83%
Sego 48.17%
Highest 71.55%
Royal 50.9%
Sarkozy 49.1%
Highest 69.34%
16. A French President as pro George Bush as Blair should terrify all of us. Royal will hopefully distance France-and perhaps Europe- from the insanity that is the present US administration.
2 & 3 Don’t you normally have two goes, Icarus?
Anyway, my shot is….
Sarko 54.76%
Royal 45.24%
Highest 76.76%
15 Mike O’Carroll
Don’t suppose you know any way we can tune into this debate? Should beat the crap out of watching AC Milan v Man U.
Sarko 51.7 Royal 48.3
Highest 60%
Sego 50.8%
Sarko 49.2%
Highest 73.4%
Just as us brits couldn’t vote for a bald, ginger, Welsh, socialist in 1992, so the French will fall short of voting for a Bush/Blair admiring dwarf of Hungarian origin who wants to take away their 35 hour week and minimum wage.
Hope Sego wins. It’s probably not in our national interest that she does, but I’d like France to retain some of the unique things that make it French.
23 Watch it, Jez, or you’ll be in trouble with the PC wardens.
I got in trouble for using the verb ‘to welsh’ the other day.
13- No it starts at 9 pm in France, which is 8pm in Britain.
One tip for the tie-breaker :in 1995, last comparable election (2002 was a landslide for chirac against le pen), the highest score was 65.38 for Chirac, the eventual winner, in the Alpes maritimes.
I guess if Sarkozy wins his best will be one of those 4 : Alpes Maritimes, Var, Haut-Rhin or Bas-Rhin.
If it is a Royal victory, it will probably be Ariège or Nièvre.
23,24 Snaarrrl…..
Sego 51.46%
Sarko 48.54%
74.2%
Go Sego Go!
Are there anyt exit Polls in Wales.
23-24- I think the reference to the “dwarf of Hungarian origin” is one of the most insulting comments I’ve ever seen on this site. Only far-left lunatics or Le Pen use that kind of expletive in France…
Actually I’ve never seen a sarkozyst use as an equivalent of Royal the “botoxed and fake-teethed 50-something” for example… But obviously the difference is that at least we have other things to criticize in her!
Sarko 52.43%
Sego 47.57%
67.52%
29. Assuming Sarko wins, what can Chirac and Villepin expect. Le Canard Enchaine is saying Chirac has done a deal, and Villepin seemed to be trying to bend his knee to Sarkozy in the run up to Campaign. So will Sarko exercise mercy or will it be off with their heads.
31- I think he will just ignore them for a while (there are legislative elections to win in June)/
I think it will be more clear cut than the polls suggest:
Sarkozy 56.5%
Royal 43.5%
Highest individual: 69%
32. True, but I take your reticence to mean That Nicolas “Gerald Ford” Sarkozy has already de facto pardoned Jacques “Richard Milhous Nixon” Chirac. But what will Sarkozy do with Villepin treacherous without any doubt, but like Talleyrand he has his uses for any newq Master.
Looks like I’ve caused a stir. I guess my point is that in many instances the substance of what politicians are putting forward is drowned out by image. Two Blair landslides and the rise of Cameron pretty much confirm this.
24, 26 - Just to clarify the bald, ginger, Welsh comment doesn’t indicate a personal prejudice about bald, ginger, welsh people. I personally believe that Kinnock should have been elected.
29 - Same applies for the Sarko comment. His stature and ethnic background SHOULD have no bearing on the outcome of the election. I just happen to believe it will. Le Pen has played it extensively throughout the course of the election and urged his followers to abstain rather than vote for Sarko, this will hamper his chances of success.
Sarko will win with 52.36% - just giving some decimal places for a pre-tie-break.
Tie-break: 82.12%
Sarko: 53,14%
Royal: 46,86%
Highest: 65,89
Sarko: 53.67
Royal: 46.33
tie break: 65.36
Nicolas Sarkozy 51,22%
Ségolène Royal 48,78%
Le Tie-breaker 65,33%
royale 50.32
sarko 49.68
highest 83.65
Sarkozy 50.1
Royal 49.9
Highest 70
Sarko 53.87
Royal 46.13
Tie Break 75.82
Sarko 54.5
Ségo 45.5
Highest vote (I don’t believe this, but it’s the best I can do), Corse-du-Sud, Sarko 65
I would warn people, there’s a “shy” Sarko vote (I’m one
) Shades of John Major in whenever it was.
21 http://www.france24.com says “a suivre en direct sur france 24″ (follow it directly(live?) on france 24) which I think means they’re showing it live but it might just be a live blog or something I suppose.
26 LOL Penddu
Humour - the best antidote to prejudice, intended or not.
Sarkozy 53.27
Royal 46.73
Highest vote 6.74
oops highest vote should be 64.74!! I think both candidates might get more than 6.74% of the vote in some departments
Sarkozy 51.71
Royal 48.29
Highest 68.29
Sego 50.37
sarko 49.63
Highest dept: 67.93
Sarkozy - 52.67
Royal - 47.33
Highest - 64.15
23,Your description of Sarkozy made me laugh out loud-after a crap day at work,cheers for making me smile again:wink:
Sarko to win 54.10 v 45.90
highest 70.37
Sarkozy: 53.00%
Royal:47.00%
Highest: 64.50%
44. If you have Sky, the debate is France 24 which is on Channel 517 with a live english translation.
If you want the debate in French you can watch it on channel 805 on Sky.
Sarko seems to have come out keen to display his reasonable kinda guy side, whilst Sego seems to be out the traps swinging at anything that moves. I assume she’s trying to goad him into Mr Nasty-mode? Problem is she’s majoring on ‘why we should hate Sarko’ and I’m not getting loads of positive reasons to vote for her - this could of course be my poor French getting in the way of a deep understanding of her platform!
Sarkozy 54.9%
Royal 45.1%
Highest: 74.1%
Sarkozy - 52.9
Sego - 47.1
Highest - 72.65
55 my impressions exactly - Sarko is trying to show he isn’t so nasty and macho after all while Sego is trying to show that she’s no rollover wimp out of her depth. Sego is going very negative (e.g. bringing up the peadophiles thing again for no real reason) but there is probably more anti-Sarko than pro-Sego vote so that is probably a good idea. Sego a bit nervous at first but is coming across much more presidential than she has done previously. Sarko is doing fine too but he there were less doubts about him from a confidence/public speaking/presidential-ness perspective so it dones’t do him so many favours.
Sarko will win.
Vote Conservative tomorrow, everyone!
I suppose we should feel flattered, Sarkozy seems to think the UK is some kind of paradise.
Sego certainly holding her own. Maybe doing a bit better than that.
61 Au contraire, I’d say she’s mixing meaningless pieties with personal attacks on Sarkozy.
While he addresses the wider audience, she is only talking to him.
62 But on the battle of expectations do you think she’s over-delivering (from a low base I accept)? She appeared to land some blows on the 35 hour week vs tax-free overtime (note- I am not agreeing with her economics, just the debating dynamic). Can Sarko keep his temper under control for another 25 minutes?
62 She’s coming across far more Presidential than I had expected. Maybe my expectations were too low.
Though - responding to myself in 63 - she is appearing more authoritarian and bolshie than Sarko at the mo. If I had a vote en France it’d go to Sarko right now (with a frisson of fear!).
Oops…she’s struggling now. He’s got her on tax.
My favourite bit was when she claimed that allowing firms to pay more to people working beyond 35 hours would cause unemployment. It’s like watching a British political debate circa 1983.
She’s not stupid but she’s hamstrung by her programme.
Wow - he just got the ‘gaffe’ on her plans during the pensions debate - her response ‘No I don’t have any figures …. that is my right’…. fluent French speakers - did I get that wrong?
64. To me she seems unbearably patronising, but the French do seem to treat the Presidency as a a kind of elected monarchy, so perhaps that’s not a bad thing for her.
68. He asked her for figures and she said that she was just explaining the general principle. He then asked, “You don’t have any figures but it’s your law?” And she replied, “Yes it’s my right (law).” So just an unfortunate choice of words.
Re 70 - aha - many thanks - she was dodgy during that phase though wasn’t she? (maybe that is politically obvious - leftwinger looking uncomfortable during tax debate - that is until Anthony Lynton came along)
Nice exposition of his low tax philosophy there.
Sarkozy 49.65%
Royal 50.35%
Highest: 76.1%
Sego’s continuous interupting seems to be annoying Sarko! He really looked to be close to losing it for a moment there.
74. Yes. I don’t know if it was a deliberate tactic to rile him but she was certainly annoying me.
You can see that he could easily explode, but he’s managing to stay reasonably cool.
She addresses him; he addresses the wider audience.
Only 3 of us have voted for Royal, so if she wins its a one in 3 shot, I can live with that…
Betfair certainly has crowned Sarko as winner. Latest traded at 1.18, lowest ever. This was Royal’s last chance - game over.
Just read Stodge’s rant about Poles. Remind me is he a Lib Dem.
76. Sarkozy’s certainly trying to address the wider audience but his language is all over the place. At least Blair doesn’t usually switch from Fettes to estuary mode in the same appearance.
76. Copycat!
At the moment, I’d say Sarkozy’s on top.
80. What do you mean? As I haven’t studied French for some time, I’m not really in a position to judge how “street” his language is.
78 Yes, Jan. It wasn’t a drubbing but he only needed a draw to win. He’s got that - comfortably.
82. Well for the first 15 minutes he seemed to be on a mission to sound statesmanlike and so he spoke softly and correctly - like an impersonation of Chirac or Mitterrand. But from time to time he slips into a kind of thrusting businessman persona and says things like, “j’suis pas d’accord”, “si ça se trouve” and even “OK”.
Sarko is not an enarque. That’s the real him.
Sarkozy: 53.51%
Royal: 46.49%
Highest share: 71.08%
They’ll vote for the man in the (possibly correct) belief that it doesn’t matter that he’ll try and pursue liberalising economic reform; when push comes to shove, he won’t have the public or political backing to get the legislation enacted and enforced. And he has looked more presidential throughout the campaign.
84. Quelle horreur! Will the man on the St. Germain omnibus care though?
BTW Do read that article by Stodge. I was amazed by it. I mean I thought I was on a UKIP site not a Lib Dem. “Invasion” etc etc. What’s he on.
Tut tut Madame Royal, one shouldn’t lose one’s temper.
Not very presidential at all.
Hammers and tongs on TV5, Sego’s going for it…….
I think she’s lost centrist voters tonight.
I have been watching off and on, with a French colleague in the office translating the best bits. It does appear he got the upper hand though in this contest - and the loss of temper just confirms it. Given differing expectations, I would say “pas change” overall after this evening, surely Sarko still in the lead?
I thought that was her best moment - talking from the heart, whether ‘en colere’ or not, is what she does best. A mistake from Sarko to let her get there and he should have treated her with more respect. Reading his papers whilst she sounded off didn’t look good. Doubt it cost him the Presidency though.
Her unique selling point for centrists versus Sarkozy was that he is dangerous, opinionated and quick to temper. She was the “tranquil” force like her mentor Mitterrand. Instead, she has come across as attached to the left in her policies and hectoring in approach. I know people who’ve worked for her and they always said that was the real Royal.
Hills appear to have left their French market open overnight with Sarkozy still available at 1/4 (1.25) if anyone wants to top up.
Sego got into a real mess over nuclear energy claiming it to be 17% of electricity production when in France it is actually 78% - this is a gaffe that could play big in media reports of the debate.
95 Merci, mon vieux.
I think 17% might be a global figure, or an “energy consumption” figure including non-electricity uses of energy e.g. cars - but I’m really not very sure.
She seems rather calmer now, dealt with immigration not badly.
96 I thought she was way out when she said that. Sarko clearly didn’t know the figure either, just saying it was over 50%, but she’s been banging on about alternative energy sources all week, it’s unbelievable she didn’t have the right figures.
sadly;
sarkozy 53.4%
sego 46.6%
anyone watching the debate tonight- I think when sego said that we should boycott the Beijing games- my god!!!!
Sarkozy is beatable- sadly not by sego
Sarkozy is smooth and engaging, pity about the things he’s saying……….
Sarjozy 52.34%
Sego 47.66%
Highest - 68.75%
‘Ow long this going on for?! Cor, they can’t arf rabbit ‘n pork, these Frenchies!
Closing statements Pete………
59- I would rather spend the night rubbing my eyes with tobasco sauce and eating my cat litter.
Gosh to vote Conservative would surely represent a low point of life one could never recover from. Life would surely have no meaning from that point on.
and again, but still sadly,
sarkozy 53.4%
sego 46.6%
with highest turnout at 69.7%
101 - she didn’t suggest boycotting the Beijing olympics. What she said was absolutely typical of her. She said we should consider deploying the threat but not actually do it.
106 - I take it your cat isn’t called Cameron then!
All looking good for tomorrow night!
South of England Labour free zone - warm up for 2009 GE.
105 Enfin. Je crevais d’ennuie.
So, what do we think, boys and girls?
I gave it on points to Sarko - not by much, but enough.
He’s in, isn’t he?
Sarko 53.9
Royal 46.1
I taped it and have only seen the last 20 minutes so far but Sarkozy looks fairly certain to win it. I sensed that Madame Royal upped her game though, about time too…..
109- never liked the south of england- selfish, self interested lot; without the sense of heart, soul, commaraderie, compassion, warmth, community of the north- so let them have the politicans they deserve!!
It’ll be a close one, but it’s Sarkozy in the end.
Sarkozy- 50.68
Royal- 49.32
highest % in any department- 64.80
75 I couldn’t agree more. I think he deserves a medal just for putting up with it.
I think he must have got bored at the end of it. I know I was.
Can anyone tell what she would do on: pensions; the 35 hour week; immigration; the Olympics etc etc.
I hope he wins, she’s incompetant.
95. Hills have pulled their French market now. Does someone stay up this late, or is it some automated cap they place on their overnight markets?
peter the punter- am still hanging on to my royal bet- you never know.
I think there is a significant soft vote going to sarkozy mainly because they (frenchies) simply do not have enough confidnce in a sego presidency. And to think that Sarkozy is presenting himself as the candidate of change after 12 years of Chirac. This really is an election that the left has lost rather than Sarkozy has won.
111 PtP I would agree Sarkozy came off better in the debate, but whether he’s in I don’t know. My nagging concern (purely from a betting perspective - I am +400 Sarko) is that there will be an enormous GOTV effort in the suburbs to stop Sarkozy.
114 - thought you lived in Oxford (?)
All - see you tomorrow for exclusive Ave it analysis!
114. “…selfish, self interested lot; without the sense of heart, soul, commaraderie, compassion, warmth,…”
You might (arguably) be describing that self-selecting group of blackguards known as BMW drivers, but I don’t recognise your description of Southern England’s inhabitants at all. To me, they seem pretty much the same as everyone else in the country.
And they brew better beer! (Beam me up Scottie - Quick!)
114 - Living in Oxford must be so utterly soul destroying. Your fortitude is an example for us all.
Segolene didn’t seem as lightweight as she had before but lost her cool a bit.
Sarkozy was solid as ever on policies and avoided being the grand mechant the left paints him as.
Overall I’d say Sarkozy came out slightly better.
120-ave it- well done- I live in Oxford. 2 great advantages- Tory free zone, and the most likely city in the UK where you will encounter a foreigner. Multicultarilism rocks!
Anyhow, see you tomorrow and will wait with baited breadth to read your exclusive, election analysis.
Sarkozy -51.9
Royal -48.1
Highest -73.5%
122 john O- admittedly Oxford is a city where if it came to light you got your demi-gods and demagogues confused you would forever hang your head in shame
Anyway, our secret. Good night
royale 48.3
sarko 51.7
highest 73.65
Charlie. Are you sure? Royal was far better than expected, and Sarkozy was desperately trying to pretend he was user friendly. She took him out when she pointed out that having held high office for 5 years he can’t really pretend to be the outsider coming in to clean up the system - he never really recovered from that on the night. Royal won without a doubt. But is it too little too late for Sego?
I’m going for Royal to shade it
Royal - 50.34
Srkozy - 49.66
highest % - 62.79
128 I agree that Sego was better than expected but Sarkozy was pretty solid and didn’t show his nasty side much.
For me, Sego’s problem has been a lack of substance and not looking very presidential and she didn’t convince me otherwise tonight.
I’m no real fan of Sarkozy, but he didn’t do anything much wrong so I think he’ll be able to pick up the votes he needs from the centre.
24. And righly so.
Sarkozy 51.26%
Royal 48.74%
Highest 63.5%
131 Oi, wotchit Cymro. Double jeopardy. I can only be done for the offence once.
The other way of looking at it Charlie is that Royal had little to lose and everything to gain, and the opposite for Sarkozy. He will have gained very little out of this performance - only knockout blow would have suited him in some ways. She OTOH may have gained that little bit of traction that she needs for the final run in. In a tight race like this, a second wind for Sego may prove crucial.
Sarko: 53.15%
Sego: 46.85%
Highest vote (for Sarkozy): 73.1%
Are French TV doing any instant post debate polls re who won and voting intentions?
Per Wikipedia, Ipsos poll to be published Thurs 3 May:
Sarkozy 53.5% Royal 46.5%
No change from Ipsos on Wed 2 May.
Honestly, those who say Sarko won aren’t thinking clearly. Its not that he did badly, but Sego outperformed expectations. She looked more competent, “presidential” than was expected of her. She benefitted from low expectations and she beat them. Sarko was OK - he didn’t screw up, but he looked a bit nervous, on his back foot at times - which wasn’t expected.
People here care to much about details of policy - doesn’t matter much
That said, I still think Sarko wins. But Sego helped herself tonight.
Final predict:
Sarko 50.4
Sego 49.6
Highest vote (for Sarko): 62.6
O/T Scottish Labour drifting from 2.75 to 3.05 in about half an hour. I wonder if now might be the time to get on, if you haven’t already. Still hope they don’t win, though.
A few weeks ago I warned punters not to go near the SNP at anything shorter than 4/5, because a last week Labour swing was pretty much nailed on (polls based on ‘protest votes’ can be very flaky when the ballot box actually looms).
My sense now is that the swing is underway but the SNP look surprisingly resilient. It will be very close, with SNP just the favourites. That makes 2/1 on Labour value.
Arb seeker have you lost your marbles? The Labour market has collapsed. No one will touch Labour with a barge poll. There is no ‘value’ in losing your money! If you still have any money in Labour get out before it is too late.
i.e. check out the yougov poll - its all over.
142 Will - the fieldwork on the latest large sample YouGov poll was April 17-23, whereas fieldwork for the ICM poll which showed a closer race was April 26-30.
143. Paul M
Errr… he doesn’t mean that YouGov poll!!
He means the one in today’s (Thursday 3rd May) Scottish edition of the Daily Telegraph. Apparently they were still interviewing respondents right up to 5pm Wednesday 2 May. SNP are 6 points clear of Labour on the const vote; and five points clear on the list vote. Lib Dems very badly squeezed.
Betfair: SNP 1.19; Labour 3.15
If you are stuck on Labour, get out while you can.
128
Hardy, everyone in France knows that Chirac and de Villepin hated Sarkozy and would refuse anything he proposed practically on principle.
royale 47.22%
sarko 52.78%
highest 75.01%
Sarkozy 51.8%
Royale 48.2%
Tie Break 68.4% for Sarkozy in Corsica
Winner: Sarkosy
Share of Vote: 53.72%
Tie Break: Sarkosy, 69.11%
Sarkozy 54.12%
Royal 45.87%
Tie-breaker : 69,71% (Alpes Maritimes)
Sarkozy 53.98
Royal 46.02
Highest vote 68.13
Sarkozy 58.08% Royal 42.92%
Tie breaker: Sarkozy 73.62% (probably in Corsica)
Sarkozy: 53.82
Royal: 46.18
Highest: 68.05 (Sarkozy)
Sarkozy: 52.5%
Royal: 47.5%
Highest: 72.5%
sarkozy: 49.8
Royal: 50.2
Highest: 70.5
Sarko: 53.0
Sego: 47.0
Highest: 69.5
Sarko: 53.07
Sego: 46.93
Highest: 68.25
Sarko 52.22%
Ségo 47.78%
Highest 64.12% Sarko in Alpes-Maritimes
Sarkozy to win, vote of 56.08.
Highest department - 66.39
Sarkozy 58.5%
Royal 41.5%
Highest - Sarkozy 72.5% (Department 67 - Bas Rhin)
Sarkozy 52.4%
Royal 47.6%
Let’s all hope Sarkozy wins. France is in dismal economic straits while the economy of other nation in the world is rapidly expanding. If Royal wins, France will be permanently written off.