Will retaining Scotland be Blair’s final victory?
May 2nd, 2007
Could Tony’s leadership close with a dramatic triumph?
Two polls by mainstream pollsters suggest that Labour is closing in on the SNP in the final phase of tomorrow’s Scottish election and hold out the prospect of Blair’s premiership ending on an electoral high.
As has often been said here - “nobody ever got rich betting against Tony”
ICM in the Scotsman found that the SNP is still ahead - by 2 per cent on the constituency vote and 1 per cent on the regional vote which would give Salmond a margin of one seat in the new Parliament. It’s projected SNP shares is 34% on the constituency vote and 30% on the regional list vote. Labour recorded 32% in the former 29% for the latter.
Populus for the Times reports a breakdown of SNP 33%: LAB 29%: LD 15%: CON 13% in the constituency vote.
Frustratingly the online editions of both papers do not have the results in tabulated form. The Scotsman states that the poll is pointing to the SNP have a one seat lead while the Times suggests that its poll is indicating a 2 seat SNP margin.
What a relief it would be for Gordon Brown if at the last just before he prepares to move into Number 10 that Labour was able to hold on in Scotland
The critical and deciding thing tomorrow is whether Labour and the SNP can get their vote out. Last time the overall proportion was a respectable 49.4%. Both Populus and ICM weight their final numbers in line with answers to the likelihood to vote question - so that is factored into these latest findings.
Another element is that there has been a tendency in Scottish polls, as we looked at here last week, for both Labour and the SNP to be over-stated. In 2003 all the polls overstated both parties in the constituency vote while all but YouGov over-stated Labour in the regional list.
If Labour do make it it will once again show what a formidable force the party is in the final days of an election campaign. Blair and Brown have thrown everything at it and it might just come off. David Cameron should take note.
In the betting the SNP has eased and Labour has tightened.
Mike Smithson - author of “The Political Punter”
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It’s getting tense. That £12,000 placed on Labour the other day strongly suggests some insider knowledge. Coupled with the traditional “cold feet” factor, I think this just might go the wrong way.
No surprise there then. I have been saying for months that it will be very close between the top two parties.
The ICM/Scotsman poll shows that the only statistically significant change from from last month’s (3 April) is a squeeze of the Liberal Democrat vote to their coalition partners Labour on the 1st vote only - pretty clearly a tactical decision by a significant chunk of Lib Dems at the last minute (they are sticking to the Lib Dems on the 2nd vote though). All the other changes are too small to be meaningful, which is quite surprising, considering we have had a full month of campaigning.
1. SNP 34% (+2%)
2. Lab 32% (+5%)
3. LD 16% (-3%)
4. Con 13% (n/c)
1. SNP 30% (-1%)
2. Lab 29% (+2%)
3. LD 16% (-1%)
4. Con 13% (+1%)
But, rather at odds with The Times’ headline (“Scots nationalists cling on as Labour narrows the gap”), Populus actually measures a swing from Labour to the SNP! Although it is too small to really be statistically reliable. Bit at odds with Mike Smithson’s spin too though.
Same Liberal Democrat drop as ICM found though, so I think the pollsters are on to something here: the big squeeze!! Are the Tories going to be immune in the last 24 hours, or will some of them jump ship too? And which way
1. SNP 33% (+1%)
2. Lab 29% (-1%)
3. LD 15% (-3%)
4. Con 13% (n/c)
Strangely, The Times makes no mention whatsoever of the list voting intentions.
Sitting in the desert in Texas, I’m not entirely surprised that Labour is narrowing the gap. The huge assault on the SNP’s raison d’etre - independence - has paid off.
Basically, IMHO, the Scots don’t want independence - at least not yet. And even if they do want independence, there are too many imponderables - EU membership, the future currency, the end of oil, trade with England, monarchy or republic - for independence to ever be that desirable. If Francophone Quebec can’t quite secede from Anglophone Canada…
This is a dilemma for Salmond. He is clearly the most talented Scots politician of his generation, bar maybe Brown. Maybe. He must know that the commitment to independence is, paradoxically, a vote loser. If he went for a more Catalunyan or even Plaid Cymru approach - more autonomy - he would be a shoo-in, given the massive
unpopularity of Labour. But presumably he has fundamentalists in his party who will not allow him to backpedal from outright independence.
I still think the SNP will edge it, but I think it might be very close, close enough for Labour and the LDs to justify keeping the SNP out of power.
Anyway the elections should be fun. And nicely timed for margarita hour in the Texan outback.
O/T Sarkozy up again before the debate
new Ipsos daily poll
Sarkozy 53,5 (+0,5)
Royal 46,5 (-0,5)
Sarkoy is back to a 7 points margin (around 2 million votes) quite near his best Ipsos results (54) and up has almost wiped out last week’s dive.
However Royal had a great success for her last public meeting yesterday in a Paris stadium. The free concert offered by singers and bands supporting her helped to get more people in. It is at least a good answer to sarkozy’s success on sunday.
All in all Royal stil has a mountain to climb and tonight’s debate is probably her last chance to swing back the votes of centrist voters : today Ipsos gives for the first time a small lead fo sarkozy in bayrou voters’ second round choice.
One ineresting element is that Le Pen called his voters to abstain. This might cost a few votes to Sarkozy but it will be hugely helpful for him to resist Ms Royal’s attacks on what she calls his “unclear relationship” with Le Pen
Several months ago I was in Scotland and a local radio program with three ‘experts’ were discussing whether the SNP who were well in the lead at the time could actually win. John Curtice-one of the experts-said you have to subtract 7% of the Nationalist vote for people who change their mind at the last moment! I posted that on here at the time. If it turns out that this has happened then well done to the psephologists.
If this is the case I guess it’ll also be the story of the night.For what it’s worth my Scottish contacts say Labour are still are going to lose.
GB now into 1.08 - coming in at 0.01 per day steady..
5. SeanT - “the Scots don’t want independence - at least not yet”
This may surprise some people here at pb.com, but I tend to agree with Sean, from most recent polling evidence (although by no means all).
However, I think that there is only one overwhelming explanation for this - and it is not “doubts” about North Sea/North Altantic oil, the monarchy, continued EU membership, nor the Euro - but it is a far more base political judgement by the British Establishment. A very, very ancient political tactic, which has often worked throughout the history of the entire world: good old-fashioned bribery.
The name of the bribe is the Barnett Formula, and its nemesis? The West Lothian Question. And there are only two West Lothian Answers:
1. full, symetrical federalism, with England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales a partnership of equals, inscribed in a full, written constitution (note: this is not the same thing as the Liberal Democrats proposals to split England up: a classic “divide and rule” strategy)
2. dissolution of the Union
Now, for every day that Labour and the Tories cling on to the status quo, Option 2 becomes the more likely West Lothian Answer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_Formula
http://www.abdn.ac.uk/crpf/barnettoriginal.pdf (note: PDF file)
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=51&id=34822004
Why do the Unionist parties not support an independence referendum? If Sean and I are correct, the Unionists would win it! But the longer you wait…
9. No, Stuart. The reason the unionists don’t want a referendum is partly because your lot might win it - however unlikely that might be, but a much greater reason is that simply asking the question formally is a massive and irrevocable step. It’s like a couple asking ‘you don’t really want a divorce, do you?’. The other party might answer no, but from that moment on their relationship will be changed and not for the better.
On topic, I’ve not been active in this market despite some strong advice to back the SNP (which if I had done, I’d be thinking of laying off now). The main reason was that I’m not convinced that the Scots are yet in favour of an SNP administration. Going against that is that virtually every poll has put them ahead, the country as a whole is fed up with Blair and co at Westminster and Salmond is a popular - and clearly capable - leader. Yet I still have doubts.
The electorate could vote SNP because they’re the only realistic alternative administration, but that might still let the independence cat out of the bag - and those are extremely high stakes and ones that may cause enough people to think twice to allow Labour to sneak back in.
Having seen the straw poll, I was surprised to be in so much company - I thought it might be about 3:1 in favour of the No option. Obviously, it’s not scientific, but then neither’s betting. One point to note though: if it is within two or three seats, Labour could hold on to the First Minister’s position even if they’re behind. Due to server traffic, I don’t know what the odds are, but if McConnell is any longer than about 6/4, then that looks decent value to me.
Report in the Times says the Lib Dems would still 23 seats, as per their last poll.
Presumably that is based on holding their first past the post seats, think they were about 15% last time, and having a better representation from the list system.
If that holds or remains very close to those figures then Stuart may be shouting too soon and making presumptions that may not happen in the final result.
Would be a superb result if Labour can pull it off - and they’d surely win heavily in Wales at the same time. It would have been more interesting had the Lib Dems surged and the SSP been strong, but it does look close between Labour and the SNP.
But if its close then the Lib/Lab pact can stay in power (as does McConnel)..
Anyone think it would be rather good for the Tories if Lab hang on (assuming they do respectably themselves)?
Firstly another SNP ‘failure’ would open up a route to limited Tory recovery in Scotland - Scots might have to start looking elsewhere for opposition to Labour. Second maintaining Labour in Scottish govt will put back any regrouping in Scotland, leaving them to possibly reap a bigger whirlwind in 2009 (cf Tories 1992/1997)
I have been feeling for the last few days that the SNP will be disappointed and Labour will be pleased. I now expect Labour to be 2 - 3% ahead of the SNP tomorrow. I am not very pleased, and I think the LDs will find it difficult knowing what to do.
O/T took a lottle tootle around Gower/Mumbles yesterday. LOADS of LAbour banners - Edwina Hart has clearly been working the seat. NO Lib Dems and a few Tory banners here and there.
The general impression I am getting is of Labour’s vote holding up - turnout is however the main issue.
Alex. If you are suggesting that the Tories might become the principle opposition in Scotland I think you might be at least fifty years away. I think there are less Tories pro rata in Scotland than in Bootle.
Bootle was a Tory council in 1970.
15. SBS
I totally agree. If Labour do end up as the largest party tommorrow then it puts the Liberal Democrats in a very difficult position.
Also worth bearing in mind that it is highly unlikely that Labour and the Lib Dems could form a majority on their own. Would they run a minority government, or take in the Greens?
And another minor consideration under that scenario: are we going to have another SNP Presiding Officer, to follow the retired George Reid?
17. Roger
Agreed. That is total Tory fantasy territory. If the SNP are very close this time, then the Unionists will reap the whirlwind in 2011. The Establishment cannot lock the SNP out forever.
37 years then!
A young girl came to a casting once and her mother said to me she was doing really well she’d just won a competition. “That’s great” I said “What competition was that?”.
“She’s Miss Bootle Rose”!
O/T France new BVA poll
sarkozy 52 (-1)
royal 48 (+1)
average of the 6 pollsters
sarkozy 52.41
royal 47.58
Thus the average margin is around 5 points before tonight’s debate that should be entertaining (I certainly hope so as I organized a “debate party” with friends at home!)
Punters on Betfair still think that the SNP will get more seats than Labour. Prices available Labour 2.82 SNP 1.47. Are those that are heavily into the SNP going to cover their positions?
22. I did yesterday now all green 50% on each.
Still think SNP may sneak it but in the brown stuff if there is a tie !
The best result would be a narrow SNP win on seats but with a weak Lib Dem performance which rules out a ‘coalition of the crackpots’ (or at least a two party one - perhaps the Greens might add a third leg to the chair).
I think Dead Heat rules would apply. But what would the Lib Dems do then?
split?
Undoubtedly a failure by the SNP at this stage would be portrayed as a major blow-but one aspect of the story of the night will be of many SNP gains. Particularly if the Tories are in power by 2011, the electorate really would have no meaningful option (unless Labour are to be in power for ever) except to give the SNP a comfortable lead in seats.
re 11. Lots of people seem to not realise how the Scottish and Welsh system works.
If you win too many FPTP seats you get NO list seats.
28: People who don’t follow politics closely might reasonably assume that the system devised was halfway sensible, sadly they are wrong as this list thing is just bizarre and absurd.
Has there been much official promotion of the way it works, adverts etc? I heard some people in Scotland think the list vote is a second choice, which would clearly produce a result not representative of the people’s wishes.
22,23. Icarus,Jamie. I’ve bottled out on my SNP bet. I had covered half my win stake @4/7 SNP by backing Labour at 7/2. Now covered the remaining half 4/7 SNP win stake by backing Labour at 5/2 with Ladbrokes. So guaranteed a profit if SNP win and no loss or gain if Labour win most seats. “When the facts(polls) change, I change my mind. What do you do Sir?”
I think the SNP will be fine.
Stories today will boost Lab’s turnout, though.
Hi All- Just a quick post before I go and visit a few more people before tomorrow! All the very best to all candidates tomorrow (even my Tory opponent AFLeitch- LOL) and I hope I will be celebrating on Friday morning! I still believe the SNP will win most seats, lead the first (fptp) vote by 4% and regional list vote by 3-5%. As for the Labour vote firming up I would say that a common response our campaign team is getting on the doors is ” I havent made up my mind how to vote, Ive always vote Labour but one thing is for certain I wont be voting for them this time”. re-canvassing of undecided voters has shown approximately 60% of those who have now made up their mind are backing the SNP! Watch for the Hamilton South result, it will be amongst the first to declare between 12-1. It will also be a very interesting result- you heard it here first!
Best of luck all and I will be looking in on Thursday night via my lap-top at the count if possible!
There were some indications in UK polls earlier this year, that the LD vote had the largest % of people prepared to consider another party.
In a squeeze between SNP Vs Labour, it is therefore plausible that the LD vote would be more easily attracted away and is this what is happening in Scotland?
What turnout are we expecting in Scotland? Low 40s?
If the Tories do get in at Westminster in 2009 it will greatly improve the SNP’s chances in 2011 and will make a referendum on independence much more likely to succeed.
31. Test - “Stories today will boost Lab’s turnout, though.”
Agreed. But I think that they will also motivate the anti-Lib/Lab turnout too.
I think that today’s headlines are almost certain to boost both the Labour Party and the SNP vote, at the expense of the Tories and Lib Dems.
And here’s more good news for turnout (which I reckon will be about 60%) and bad news for the Tories and Lib Dems: it’s the weather forecast folks!
Glasgow: 22 degrees, sunny
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1946
Edinburgh: 17 degrees, sunny
Inverurie (Gordon constituency): 14 degrees, overcast
Portree (Ross, Skye & Inverness West): 17 degrees, sunny
Selkirk (Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale): 17 degrees, sunny
Stromness (Orkney): 9 degrees, overcast
Stranraer (Galloway & Upper Nithsdale): 19 degrees, sunny
I predict turnout to hit just over 60% nationally!
32. HamiltonNat
All my very best wishes to you and your team there. I’ve got a very good feeling about the SNP’s prospects throughout West Central Scotland, but particularly in Labour’s Lanarkshire bastion.
33. HF
Yes. The Lib Dem vote is famously soft. It is “easy come, and easy go”.
Morning all! Mike, I have to say I don’t think Labour can beat the SNP, the only question is how close it will be.
Last time turnout was 49%.
33/38 Yes the LibDem vote is being squeezed so well that they are going to end up with more MSP’s than in 2003 and the Conservatives have had such a good campaign that every single poll shows they are going to do worse than in 2003 .
41. Mark Senior
Ho ho ho
We’ll see Mark, we’ll see.
Mark, how many losses would make it a “good result” for the Liberal Democrats? Two? Keep spinning pal…
Exciting and energising stuff - there’s nothing like an election campaign where you think you’re closing fast from behind. It looks as though the Tories will fall back in Both Scotland and Wales, doesn’t it? A point of more long-term interest is that this sort of polarisation is what we can expect at the next GE - we’ve not had a close race since 1992, and I think the LD vote in England will get heavily squeezed except in the seats that they already hold.
Anything in these two recent Scottish polls on propensity to vote? I do not mean how the respondant voted last time but likelihood to vote. Last poll to give this showed SNP voters more likely to vote. Made a difference of 1 % point.
43. Nick Palmer MP - “Tories will fall back in… Scotland… ”
Mmmm… I am still not convinced about that. I just do not believe that the Tories are quite as low as 13%. I have seen them underestimated too consistently, for too many years, to trust the polls. Plus they always do better in a limited number of constituencies, and are pretty much non-existant in all the others.
The race between the Tories and the Lib Dems to be the 3rd largest party is going to be just as tight as the 1st spot Lab/SNP contest.
My impression from talking to friends and people at work about the scottish election is general apathy. I wouldn’t expect a higher turnout this time even though it is a tight contest. I do think that alot of disillusioned labour voters will in the end go out and vote labour just because they don’t like the alternatives but not with any great enthusiasm. I reckon SNP to be just ahead but only just (1 to2%).
As for independence I don’t think there is currently a great ground swell of support for it. Most people kind of like the idea and think of themselves as Scottish rather than british. However if asked in a referendum I think most people would think is it really worth the hassle.
Re Lib Dems in Scotland. Because I don’t have a very good handle on the Sottish elections I am very risk averse. To cover the theoretical possibility I have put up £2 on Betfair to back the Lib Dems at 910. Someone has matched me to 12p! So £1.88 still available to match.
What can you do with 12p nowadays? Hope who ever wins my 12p invests it wisely.
43 Scotland unlikely but possible. Wales however, you are, as you do ever more frequently just lately, deluding yourself and no-one else. Tories may or may not be 2nd largest party but ‘falling back’ - not a chance. In England it will be mixed. That is mixed in the way Sean Fear put ‘bad’ ‘terrible’ and ‘horrendous’.
O/T. Postal voters in Birmingham wards down 80% following checks after the fraud allegations.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6614067.stm
47 LOL StJohn
That’s the most prudent punt I’ve seen in a long while!
I’ve sent you an email. Received?
I reckon high turnout will favour Labour and this election is now getting too close to call. Great fun!
Nick carried over from yesterday How long after Tony Blair announces that he will resign on such and such a day will it take for the NEC to meet?
Q2 is still clear favourite on Betfair but it seems more and more possible that the changeover will take place on Monday July 2nd which is Q3 - I assume that you cannot disturb the Queen’s weekend.
50 agree about the turnout. If it starts to go up it will be mostly Labour voters worried about Alex Salmond become first minister.
47/50 - am trying to lay them at 270
perhaps we can meet in the middle somewhere?
43 - OTOH, Nick, where the Lib Dems are established as the main challenger, which is quite a few seats now*, then it will be Labour votes (something that’s happened for a number of years now) and Tory votes (especially in the North, and a new phenomenon) that will be squeezed.
* one for Andrea - how many LD second places to (i) Conservatives and (ii) Labour?
43. I’d have to agree that a Lib Dem squeeze come next GE in particular is probably likely. At least my money on the Tories to win next time was partially based on this being so.
I would however disagree on the Tories falling back in Scotland, Stuart is right at 45, their support is localised. Thus despite the national poll picture I expect them to hold on to what they have, if not gain a seat because of that.
47. I reckon its the same bloke that rumour had it backed Labour with 12k recently….
Labours bet and lays are beginning to converge on Betfair.
42 - I’m afraid your anti Lib Dem prejudice is showing there Stuart.
I don’t expect the Lib Dems to make lossess and from what I’ve heard Lib Dem constituency gain from both Labour and the Nats are very possible. I’ve also heard that Alex Salmond is stuggling to win a seat at Holyrood.
Will the SNP be pulling their campaigns out of Dundee West and Aberdeen Central, to ensure a place on the list for Salmond?
55 I expect the SNP to take Galloway from the Conservatives , but they should take Dumfries from Labour so keeping 3 FPTP seats , I expect their number of list seats to fall unless the Greens lose many of their list seats .
55 - OK, perhaps it would be interesting to see:
(i) number of Lab-held marginals with Tories in second place
(ii) ditto with LDs in second place
(iii) number of Tory marginals with LDs in second place
54. Tabman
The Lib Dems are in 2nd spot in only 3 seats in Scotland, all in Labour seats:
-Edinburgh Central (but this is probably a 3-way Lab/LD/SNP marginal, if not 4-way!)
-Greenock and Inverclyde (but this was a disaster area for the Lib Dems at the 2005 UK GE, where they moved from a strong 2nd to a poor 3rd due to the shenanigans of the LD-controlled council)
-East Lothian (but they are miles away)
5 You must feel right at home with the rednecks Sean! You’re missing all the street parties for Labour’s 10 years though, bet you’re gutted………..
That didnt take long for someone to lay at 3.0 Labour on Betfair…
59. I’ll let the statistical genius people on here do that.
49. There have been comment on electoral fraud and the new voting systems in the Guardian as well. The comment by David Hecke yesterday was good and there is another piece by Simon Ardizzone. It seems the stink surrounding electoral fraud in these elections has reached such a high level that even the most Labour friendly papers can no longer ignore it.
The sheer scale of what seems to be going on in places, 20,000 votes in one Birmingham borough alone according to that BBC article means that it may even be large enough to effect the results and hence the betting. If the Conservatives don’t do so well in the North where they have postal voting it may be less to do with David Cameron not appealing to Nortern voters and more to do with Labour rigging the vote.
58. Mark Senior - “I expect their [the Tories] number of list seats to fall unless the Greens lose many of their list seats”
Agreed. The final number of Tory MSPs is going to depend to a large extent how well, or badly, the Scottish Green Party perform. We simply have too little information about that to make predictions, but I would guess that the Greens will stay about the same, or maybe even lose a couple, so probably good news for the Tories there, because they are very, very heavily dependent on the final list places.
60 The LibDems came 2nd in 14 Labour held seats at the 2005 GE .
60 - Sorry, Stuart, in my arrogant English-centric way I was thinking of Westminster rather than Holyrood
66 - according to Pippa thingummy’s database, its 106 seats:
Aberavon
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Barnsley Central
Barnsley East & Mexborough
Birkenhead
Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Birmingham, Ladywood
Birmingham, Perry Barr
Bishop Auckland
Blaydon
Blyth Valley
Bolsover
Bootle
Bradford North
Brent South
Bristol East
Bristol South
Burnley
Camberwell & Peckham
Derby South
Doncaster Central
Dulwich & West Norwood
Dunfermline and West Fife
Durham North
Durham North West
Durham, City of
Ealing Southall
Easington
East Lothian
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Gateshead East & Washington West
Glasgow Central
Glasgow North
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Greenwich & Woolwich
Hackney North & Stoke Newington
Hackney South & Shoreditch
Hartlepool
Holborn & St Pancras
Houghton & Washington East
Huddersfield
Hull East
Hull North
Hull West & Hessle
Islington North
Islington South & Finsbury
Jarrow
Knowsley North & Sefton East
Knowsley South
Lanarck and Hamilton East
Leeds Central
Leeds East
Leeds West
Leicester South
Lewisham Deptford
Lewisham West
Leyton & Wanstead
Liverpool, Garston
Liverpool, Riverside
Liverpool, Walton
Liverpool, Wavertree
Liverpool, West Derby
Manchester, Blackley
Manchester, Central
Manchester, Gorton
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
Middlesbrough
Midlothian
Newcastle upon Tyne Central
Newcastle upon Tyne East & Wallsend
Newcastle upon Tyne North
Newport East
Norwich South
Nottingham East
Ogmore
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oxford East
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Pontypridd
Redcar
Rotherham
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
St Helens North
St Helens South
Salford
Sheffield, Attercliffe
Sheffield, Brightside
Sheffield, Central
Sheffield, Heeley
Sheffield, Hillsborough
South Shields
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Streatham
Swansea East
Swansea West
Tottenham
Tyne Bridge
Vauxhall
Walthamstow
Wansbeck
Watford
Wrexham
If the SNP win the most number of seats albeit without a working majority, but Labour hold onto power because of a deal with the Lib Dems or another party then we are sleepwalking into another constitutional mess. Scotland will then have a government it had just rejected! Doesn’t this sound familiar with the 1980’s? Devolution was supposed to correct this but only if it is in Labour’s interest. England narrowly voted Tory at the last GE but because of fiddled boundaries Labour won more seats. This was typical NuLab fixing results, and now they are resorting electoral fraud using ethnic minority community leaders to remain in power? I urge all non Labour supporters to put their differences behind them and tactically vote this corrupt lot out, otherwise democracy is finished in the UK.
66 - and 2nd in 83 Tory-held seats:
Aldershot
Arundel & South Downs
Aylesbury
Beaconsfield
Bedfordshire Mid
Bexhill & Battle
Bournemouth East
Bournemouth West
Brentwood & Ongar
Cambridgeshire South
Cambridgeshire South East
Chelmsford West
Chesham & Amersham
Chichester
Christchurch
Cotswold
Devizes
Devon East
Devon South West
Devon West and Torridge
Dorset North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Epsom & Ewell
Esher & Walton
Folkestone & Hythe
Gainsborough
Guildford
Haltemprice & Howden
Hampshire East
Hampshire North East
Hampshire North West
Harborough
Henley
Hertfordshire South West
Hitchin & Harpenden
Horsham
Huntingdon
Isle of Wight
Kensington & Chelsea
Leominster
Ludlow
Maidenhead
Mole Valley
New Forest East
New Forest West
Newbury
Norfolk South
Orpington
Penrith & The Border
Poole
Reigate
Ribble Valley
Ruislip - Northwood
Ryedale
Saffron Walden
Salisbury
Sevenoaks
Skipton & Ripon
Southend West
Stratford on Avon
Suffolk South
Surrey East
Surrey Heath
Surrey South West
Sussex Mid
Tewkesbury
Tiverton & Honiton
Totnes
Tunbridge Wells
Wantage
Wealden
Wells
Westbury
Weston-Super-Mare
Wiltshire North
Windsor
Witney
Woking
Wokingham
Woodspring
Worcestershire West
Worthing West
29 - I think your fears are justified. Even though we’ve already used this election system twice, only few people actually know how it really works and that effectively only the list vote really counts (unless a party wins more constituency seats in a region than they ought to be getting via their proportion of the list vote, in which case they get to keep them and the other parties lose seats accordingly).
The STV system used in the council elections makes much more sense, yet it’s hardly been explained at all, and most people won’t even know that they’ll have to numerically rank individual candidates, never mind who the candidates actually are. So particularly the choice between candidates of the same party will be pretty random.
66 - whereas the Tories are 2nd in 221 Labour-held seats.
So I make that 221 where they are vulnerable to a squeeze, and 189 where they can squeeze others.
12. There’s no reason to believe that a recovery in Scotland for Labour would mean a recovery in Wales. The circumstances are quite different. Put simply, for Rhodri Morgan to win a majority, he’d have to be some sort of Svengali and I would still put your money on 24-26 seats.
43. I understand Nick Palmer’s point about polarization, but he should remember that the Tories have 3MPs in Wales whereas they had none in 2001. His optomism is starting to remind me of a certain Sheffield rally in 1992………
Still maybe you need that if you’re campaigning 24/7.
I see the Lib Dems have one person standing for election in two neighbouring councils (Gedling and Nottingham) - is this a first?
Looking forward to tomorrow, 15 hours in a community hall on a sink estate, managing the long lines of people exercising their franchise……….!!
Anyone else doing similar?
50. Ptp. Yes thanks. I’ll send you a reply.
53. Aaron. 26p now matched at 910. £1.74 still available to lay at 910. No longer showing as available to lay at these odds. Presumably because less than £2. But its there if you want it. In fact I have just reduced it to 900 in the spirit of PBC fraternity!
74. And he’s not a paper candidate as they’re 2 LD held wards
60 - the SNP have no chance in Edinburgh Central. Indeed they won’t be returning an SNP MP at all in Scotland’s capital city.
77 - exactly - I know there’s been a few cases of people being MEPS as well as MPs, but a cllr in two different areas???
76 - you will get matched I’m sure - if no-one else does I’ll do it on Thursday. I am just trying to squeeze the last drops out of a massive arb - since I backed the SNP with Hills and laid them on betfair I have large greens on LD/Tory/any other which I intend to get rid of.
re 71. it depends on how much canvassing the individual candidates have done - no free vote in STV which is why we should have it for all our elections.
49. Further to the Birmingham report, it will be very interesting to see the effect of the new postal voting rules on the overall number of postal votes across the UK.
Very little has been said in the media (or on this site!) about the new rules - everyone in the UK with a postal vote had to reapply in January/February 2007 giving an up to date signature and date of birth.
This will surely have an effect - when people have to go through a new level of bureaucracy normally a fair number don’t get round to it. Also this should weed out any postal votes previously applied for fraudulently (as per in Birmingham).
74 - Interesting. Which makes me wonder, is it possible for one person to hold two seats in the same council?
79 There have been a few similar cases in the past and of course it is quite common for people to be both District and County Councillors for different wards/areas .
81 ChrisA, what do you mean by “no free vote”?
84. If it was a Lib Dem, would that person be described as ‘your local candidate’ in both focus leaflets?
86 - LOL - you just know that would be highly likely or…
I’m Winning Here - and here…and…
Re Blair switch Project
See http://www.labour.org.uk/3865
I also phoned them and they confirmed that an extraordinary meeting of the NEC would be called after TB’s resignation announcement and this would take “upto a week to convene”.
If the Mole is correct and TB’s announcement is Thursday or Friday of next week then the NEC’s announcement of the appointment of the new leader is most likely to be 2 July or later.
78. Dan - “… they won’t be returning an SNP MP at all in Scotland’s capital city.”
Errr… Dan, I know that you Lib Dems think that you are ominscient and omnipotent, but the harsh reality is that it is the Scottish people who will elect their representatives at the next UK general election (if there ever is another one in Scotland), not you.
Is there going to be a thread later to mark Tony’s 10th anniversary. Must say I was quite shocked 10 years ago to wake up and find there was the first Labour government in my lifetime. And a complete annihilation for the Conservative Party. It hardly seemed believeable.
I was reading the final chapter of John O’Farrell’s Things Can Only Get Better last night and had to chuckle at it. The way Blair was being worshipped liked the messiah and the sense of euphoria in the country that I can’t remember anytime before or since and will probably never be seen again.
Who would have thought then that his lasting legacy would be a disastrous, illegal war whose justification he lied to us about. Strange world.
86,7 - ho ho ho.
There is a serious point here, in that election rules are quite strict about where you can stand. I’m sure there will be someone with more accurate knowledge, but IIRC in order to stand for a council you need to either (i) live within the council’s area or (ii) have a strong connection with the area, such as it contains your place of employment. I suspect that would apply to many of those who (as I do) reside outside the City boundaries in Broxtowe, Gedling or Rushcliffe but work in the City Centre.
I had a conversation recently with our Agent who, for many years, resided in Devon, who made a point about an Exeter City councillor who retired to the coast but who stood for re-election in the City. Technically he was no longer eligible as he neither resided nor worked in the City. I believe the case went to court but was thrown out.
86. Yellow Peril - “If it was a Lib Dem, would that person be described as ‘your local candidate’ in both focus leaflets?”
88. Holy good god…these people are so slow its like they are all civil servants….
89 - pedant alert - the voters of Edinburgh won’t be electing an SNP MSP anywhere (other than indirectly through the Lothian list).
My point is that the Nats have no chance in Edinburgh Central - regardless of your enthusiasm for it being a ‘three way’ marginal.
I’d expect the SNP may just about pull off second in East though. It interesting that voters in Scotland’s capital city seem singularly unenamoured with Scotland’s ‘national party’…
Totaly OT.
The story is that, just as parties are putting up their election posters for the Irish Elections in a few eeeks time, Dublin City Council is sending out its people to tear down any that aren’t at least 2 metres up lamposts and other vertical structures.
Talk about enforcing regulations.
On a more seripous note, rumour has it (according to the lovely Politics.ie) that the governing Fianna Fail party is going to reshuffle its campaign team a mere 2-3 days into the election campaign.
TOTALLY OFF TOPIC, BUT WORTH A LOOK
I found this on you tube. The X Factor meets politics. The panel all ex Prime Ministers.
Can it happen here?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znum8xoR3j
94. Dan
You keep thinking that Dan. Unionist complacency and arrogance is one of the SNP’s greatest assets.
96. The link doesn’t work Jon.
97 - care for a small wager on the number of SNP MSPs returned in Edinburgh fptp seats?
‘Unionist complacency’ - aye right.
Labour price shortening in Scotland. An hour ago Hills and Skybet went 9/4. Now Sky 7/4 and Hills 13/8.
Judging by the polls something is happening. Did Blair going to Edinburgh and saying he’d announce next week when he’s going, and saying next PM would be Scottish, make a difference?
While I very much want to believe that we’re making a late comeback in Scotland, I’m very cautious about it.
I remember posts claiming that only Yougov was anywhere near accurate last time and all thoe others overstated the Labour vote. We seem to have been a way back for a while and any comeback will have to be both late and strong.
Odd PMQs from Cameron this week, I thought.
Frank @ 90,
Perhaps some one can dig out a link to the Matt cartoon from the time, which showed a doting father in a maternity ward examining a new-born with the caption “It’s amazing to think he’s only ever known a Labour government”.
I’ve read all of the comments carefully. And it just seems like deja vu. Go back to last year, and we had all the same Labour activists on here discussing the comfortable Dunfermline win to come, and whether the 5% on Labour betting return made it worthwhile. Yet Labour lost by a wide margin to the Lib Dems. O what a tangle web we weive, when what we plan is to decieve. Often we are the first victim. Every good bettor know ‘Be Ojective’ for this reason.
For one and a half years in EVERY electoral contest in Scotland we have seen the same outcome - dramatic Labour defeats on huge swings. This is very different from 2003.
The question we must ask is - has the campaign changed anyone’s mind? And the feedback is a firm no. There has been remarkably little change in the opinion polls through the last three months. Populus and ICM never gave the SNP a wide lead in the first place. And traditional media bias is making a fuss out of nothing.
If the ICM or Populus showed a big CHANGE, or Yougov showed a close contest, I would jump on the IT’S CLOSE bandwagon. The evidence supports such a move. And would bet accordingly. But as things stand nothing has changed and we confuse propaganda with truth. A very dangerous thing for a bettor to do.
Take Nick Robinson - the Labour propagandist and fake BBC journalist who has been responsible for much of the disinformation and Labour dirty tricks being put about. First he claimed all polls would show Labour ahead in the final week - FALSE (it hasn’t happened), then he claimed it would be 1992 again - FALSE (Labour lost in 1992, not its opponents - and Labour is MORE over-represented in Scottish opinion polls than the SNP, and usually does worse for this reason), and now he is claiming that postal votes show it is close - again FALSE (either Mr Robinson faces arrest for a criminal offence or he is lying. As soon as his opinion poll claim was proven false he has then switched to a postal ballots claim). The man is pathetic and should be sacked from the BBC.
I understand from two of his contemporaries, with whom I am acquainted, that Nick Robinson was a tory activist when at Oxford Uni. labour, definitely not
104 He was National Chairman of the Young Conservatives
68, 72 - I think he meant in Scotland.
The point being that if they moved to second in a seat like edinburgh North and leith at the general they may be in a good position to challenge in these elections.
I would have though they would be fighting Dunfermline West pretty hard too.
14.”Anyone think it would be rather good for the Tories if Lab hang on (assuming they do respectably themselves)?”
Yes, that has got to be the best outcome for the Conservatives, combined with the fact that the Libdems will be faced with a really difficult decision on whether to remain in coalition with them. If they do then that will just continue to cement the view that a vote for the Libdems is a vote for Labour, a message already resonating with the voters in this campaign much more than in the previous two.
45&55.I agree with Stuart Dickson and Yokel’s comments regarding the Conservatives. Will be looking to see if we can improve our councillor base at these elections because that is vital if we are to continue our very slow and torturous recovery in Scotland. It was always going to be a much bigger task than in Wales and it is restricted to the area’s which we were traditionally strongest in the past, but it is happening.
A couple of observations about the last couple of weeks of campaigning. Annabel Goldie has led a good campaign (to the surprise of many including those in her own party!) and come across well on the television, in fact Alex Salmond was a great pains to point out that he agreed with her on certain issues last night.
From the noises coming from Salmond I would expect them to want to go into coalition with the Libdems if they become the biggest party on Friday. Salmond’s whole demeanour has changed over the last couple of weeks, maybe the closing gap in the polls or reaction to a hard fought campaign, but he is coming across on TV in a very statesman like fashion because of it.
The Libdems have been poor, only hand delivered leaflets in my area from the tories, and last night got one from the SNP. Have seen both the tory MSP candidate and councillors on the doorsteps around here. Why am I mentioning this? I have a Libdem council, MSP and MP and I cannot believe they could not muster a visit to my area on foot. Considering the very volatile mood of the electorate it might not be good to ignore area’s where they are already the incumbent and just concentrate on the marginals especially in constituencies where the SNP or Labour are not strong?
Jack McConnell has just looked desperate and will wait to see if his pleas motivate enough of his core vote in the Labour heartlands.
106. The Lib Dems came second in Edinburgh North & Leith in the 2001 election as well. It didn’t stop them coming fourth (!) there in the last Scottish Parliament election in 2003.
Just making the point that general elections and Scottish Parliament elections can be very different things. One is not necessarily a good guide to the other… for most seats, I’d think the 2003 results would be a far more relevant comparison than what happened in 2005.
Hi guys, apologies if this has already been answered but I presume 5 Live is doing a full night of coverage? I’m an impoverished uni student with no TV
A few weeks ago I warned punters not to go near the SNP at anything shorter than 4/5, because a last week Labour swing was pretty much nailed on (polls based on ‘protest votes’ can be very flaky when the ballot box actually looms).
My sense now is that the swing is underway but the SNP look surprisingly resilient. It will be very close, with SNP just the favourites. That makes 2/1 on Labour value.