Election night on PBC: let the spinning begin!
May 3rd, 2007-
Keep posting your news, comment and opinion…
10pm and the polls are closing at last. For many we’ve got a longer wait than usual to wait for the results. A lot of councils which normally do overnight counting have opted to do their main counting in the morning.
Still there should be enough coming through to get a sense of what has happened throughout Britain today.
If you’ve got any information or comments then this is the place to file it.
Mike Smithson - author of “The Political Punter - how to make money betting on politics”
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The Tories win!
Well the odds on the Scottish election haven’t moved much all day - on BF the market has now cemented at around:
1/2 SNP
2/1 Lab
Gonna be close!
Evening all :). My first inactive local election polling day for over twenty years and of course very quiet in London. The Tories were at Waterloo with a rag called “The Moon” for the commuters but it wasn’t getting nearly as many takers as the London Lite and thelondonpaper.
I’ll be fascinated to see the turnout figures. It will be fun watching the activists spinning gains and losses on derisory turnout figures of 25% or lower. It tells us nothing anout the next GE.
Second thought - fast forward to 2011. We might be in the second year of a Cameron Government and it will be fascinating to see how many of the Tories who win tonight will be under pressure as and when the Cameron Government hits trouble.
Anyway, all this for the future.
I think most tories will settle for that stodge!
I think The Moon is fantastic. I love that leaflet.
I suspect the turnout will be quite high in non-Labour areas.
Any exit polls from Scotland/Wales?
I suspect the bookies (and Labour backers on Betfair) are going to make a tidy sum out of the Holyrood elections. Fingers crossed that I’m wrong.
I find this story hard to believe, but if true, it’s a significant development in Hertfordshire.
http://www.hertsessexnews.co.uk/news/observer/2007/05/03/bnp%20set%20for%20election%20triumph.lpf
Turnout v low in Lutterworth -perhaps less than 30%. Had to vote Labour (I like the candidate) no Lib Dem. Have been to Manchester and Halifax today - hardly any posters anywhere - one Tory and a few dozen Lib dems in Levenshulme. Not a single Labour poster all day
Re: 5 - I’ve never seen it before. Have the Tories produced it before ? There really didn’t seem to be many takers at Waterloo but then people were perhaps more interested in getting to their trains.
Due to helicopter problems the Western Isles wont count untill twelve o’clock tomorrow.
Jeremy Vine talking out of his arse on the Ten O’Clock News just now - trying to tell us that in the North, it is the Lib Dems who are the main opposition to Labour, Tory wastland, Cameron needs to breakthrough in Manchester, blah blah blah - yet behind him a map of Britain showing the whole of northern England pockmarked with blue dots amidst the red. And not much yellow.
Sloppy.
My prediction is that all the parties will claim that they have achieved something in these elections.
What is more, they will be right.
Tories will have most gains, but not enough of them, nor a high enough vote share to make a convincing claim that they are more than a converted try in front at half time.
Labour will have most losses - but will lose fewer seats that R&T predict and will take a couple of scrums against the head.
Lib Dems be somewhere in between - and level pegging with labour on vote share. Three party politics will be shown to be alive and well - and the team will be poised to do well next season.
Scots Nats: will have progressed on last time, but not met their won expectations at the beginning of the campaign.
PC: dunno.
Betsan Powys (BBC Wales’ political editor) has just blogged that the tories think they’re giving Labour a good run for their money in Newport West! It was a 16% majority IIRC, so if true, very very good for the tories.
Plaid confident in Carmarthen West.
And turnout apparently low in Vale of Glamorgan’s Labour wards. SO good for the tories
13 - Peter, I couldn’t agree more with your analysis and preditions.
Thought I’d repost my comment from the previous thread…
Just finished a two hour stint telephone knocking up in Inverness and it’s going to be interesting. Lib Dems vote very enthusiatic.
Labour vote seems to have gone en masse to the Lib Dems, but the Tories were pretty firm.
This one is going to the wire, but wouldn’t it be interesting if Fergus Ewing scraped back in on the back of the Conservatives and Unionist voters?
A reliable source has also told me that Salmond will struggle to take Gordon and amazingly that Labour is set to hold Llanelli.
Maybe it’s not going to be the Nats night?
And I agree Max - Fergus Ewing is probably too right wing for many Tories.
Also spent some time in Woking earlier today. Lib Dems need just one gain to take control. Looks like they’ll get it by winning the Labour wards, but the question is can the Tories win the three or four seats of the Lib Dems to stop them doing it. Another knife edge result…
15 - but I think the Tories in Wales could be one of the stories of the night.
OK, here are some last minute predictions. I may be forced to eat humble pie later, but I will give it a go.
I think the SNP will just get their victory in Scotland. I predict they will be ahead by a couple of seats, but not much more. As for constituencies, Tories to gain Dumfries and Stirling, but not Eastwood. SNP to makes gains in Aberdeen, Dundee W, Fife, 1 or 2 gains in Glasgow and Renfrewshire W.
In Wales Labour will remain the largest party in terms of seats and votes, Plaid to probably hold second. I am predicting Tory gains in Clwyd W, Presli Pembrokshire and Vale of Glamorgan. Trish Law to hold Blaenau Gwent. I take Plaid to gain Aberconwy.
As for where I am in Nottinghamshire, I believe the Tories will gain Newark and Sherwood and Gedling, but not Broxtowe.
As for possible upsets I’m looking out for, SNP to make a suprise challenge in Dunfirmline West, and in Wales the Tories to come close in Montgomersyshire and Anglesea.
There some of my predicitons, look out for all of them being wrong by the end of the night
14. Such a shame there have been no constituency markets either in Wales or Scotland.
12 it’s a well embedded myth, it is 5 metropolitan boroughs and 1 unitary (York) - that’s not good and it needs to change but the tories still have way more councillors and councils across the whole country including the North than any other party and in the South Labour have been wiped out in many many places but the BBC don’t refer to that.
I concur in Wales partic Ynys Mon. PC voters there know PC will have a good night elsewhere. If they vote Tory they could have DW as an an AM or evem First Minister!
I also agree Mont, but I will doff my hat to Mr Senior if he is right and the Liberal Democerats increase their majority. What you think Wrexham.
Yes!
Britain is great again.
Conservatives win everything in England.
And as the scots and the welsh realise how much they owe their English paymasters, the little regional councils head for unprecdented Conservative gains!
Never forget!
I voted for 2 Conservatives and 1 Green in the, safe Labour, Abbey Ward in Lincoln. (I didn’t consider the 3rd Conservative to be a suitable candidate so couldn’t bring myself to vote for him)
Actually I rather liked splitting my votes anyhow. I could get a taste for it.
14. Before any of my predictions go other way. May I claim credit for that one Andrea. Also Vale of Glsmorgan knew that and told you Tuesday that the super turnout she needed in Barry wasn’t happening. Goes off to puff chest…………
SNP claim they are challenging Labour closely in Glasgow Kelvin. Could be the first seat to declare.
Hats off to BBC Wales for giving us some early gossip unlike their Scottish colleagues. As Andrea noted BBC Pol Ed saying Tories looking ‘good very good’ in Newport West!
Are the BBC going to stream their election coverage?
does anyone have a link to when results are expected for each area?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6621677.stm BBC Wales poll on the Assembly
Thought I’d repost my reply to Dan’s comment from the previous thread…
338. Dan, I hope you’re not giving me false hopes. I’ve written a predictor spreadsheet and fed the latest Yougov poll into it.
It gives us (Scottish Lib Dems) 16 seats - according to this, we lose Tweeddale without compensation on the list, and lose the list seat in Central, but gain (!) one in the West.
I’m waiting nervously for the real results.
Why no exit poll?
Confused in Texas.
24, Punter, yes, I recall that you said it about VoG
Projection: Con gain Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend
National share: Labour 19.3%
Lowest since 1896
Good vibes in Dundee for the SNP.
32 and I agreed with him !!!!
21 - Not sure if that was for me, but I’ll answer anyway. I’m going to go for Labour to win in Wrexham.
Alan J - hope the results are better than yougov…
Where are you based?
peter dot pigeon at gmail dot com
Lower turnout? Not here. Spent all day in Stapleford SW ward in Broxtowe, which was narrowly LibDem last time but where we won a by-election a couple of years ago: turnout was around 30% not including postal votes (so probably nearer 40%, which would be quite a bit up from last time). We got out over three quarters of the vote we were targeting and are reasonably hopeful of holding our seat and gaining the other one. Elsewhere in Broxtowe there were scattered reports of odd things to come - a big BNP push in Kimberley (hitherto a split ward Lab/Lib marginal) as well as the widely-advertised Brinsley battle (straight Lab-BNP party fight: they got 43% last time), a Tory assault on the LibDem bastion of Bramcote, and a LibDem attempt at the Tory stronghold of Toton. Labour-held Beeston West, where Cookie lives and I spent a lot of canvassing time, was an unpredictable three-party scramble - a senior LibDem says he thinks the Tories were winning it, but I’m blowed if I know. Overall potentially confusing results but certainly not a low turnout - will report tomorrow after the count.
I suspect the English results will be completely overshadowed by Scotland this year, though there may be some interesting conclusions for professional observers.
Loved Paxo’s introduction there.
Well… the news from Peppard ward in Reading.
Looks close. I did a graveyard stint of telling… and boy was it cold. It may be Cllr Rik tomorrow morning, but then again it may not. It won’t be Cllr SBS in Minster ward though!
The Reading counting staff have the onerous task tonight of verifying the postal ballots handed in today at polling stations. Business restarts at 9am tomorrow.
Not sure where the Westminster LD 91 seats on sky comes from….
More like 30
Sky News has Duncan Smith, Estelle Morris and Ed Devay to comment results
33. Where is that coming from.
36. It was. BUt no any other year you’ed be right but not this. Only the LIb Dems can save Labour in that particular Seat.
Brian Taylor not giving us much info on Newsnight. It’s really close, he says. What a newsflash.
Labour now out at 3.3 on Betfair, longest I’ve seen since last night. Any significance in that?
8% of Dundee East counted - SNP with a comfortable lead so far.
43 - approximate figure. No inducement to bet is implied or intended.
38 - enjoy the final salary pension soon
But it is total labour meltdown!!!!
PS where is tyson
8: we had that on the previous thread - motivated me to vote against them since that’s where I live!
Hope the story isn’t true, not sure why Bishops Stortford would attract a BNP vote, it’s about 99% white at a guess, and is a conventional and dullish place with a large middle class and not many of what I had previously imagined were stereotypical breeding grounds for BNP voters. Counting tomorrow apparently.
37. Oslo at the moment! Renfrewshire normally.
25. Yougov/AJ spreadsheet says: SNP 400 votes ahead of Labour, but 1800 SSP votes to go somewhere!
Any indication of Scottish turnout compared to last time?
Daft question: Most wards only have a few hundred votes to count, why aren’t most of the results in (in England) by about 11.30? Especially with a low turnout? How hard can it be?
newsnight saying indications turnout up in Scotland
49. That’s good news for the SNP. Very little of the SSP vote is likely to go to Labour. I hear Govan may not be going so well, though.
47. I’m confused. That is just your very own hunch/wind up then.
BBC project SNP 45 Lab 41
Charlie Kennedy having fun with William Hague.
SNP will once again be disappointed - they will never win - scottish voters know who pay for them
thats only on polls
According to Newsnight projection (just based on earlier polls, I think), Labour + Lib Dems + Greens *still* wouldn’t have a majority. Sounds too good to be true to me.
56 looked like the other way round to me!!
Anybody know what’s happening in Essex?
57 Wasn’t there the small matter of some oil?
Nick Palmer - perhaps its a Nottingham ‘burbs thang … turnout seemed brisk here in Rushcliffe, with a lot of postal votes already metaphorically in the bag.
Blowed if I know how we’ll do, though. Just hope there’s an anti-incumbent vibe going down, but the national picture means the Tories are in the box seat.
Elaine C Smith, columnist on the Daily Record’s sister paper, the Sunday Mail, calls the Record “Pravda”!
Highlands & Islands list results also to be held up because of Western Isles delays.
RE 8
I am a Liberal Democrat activist who comes from Bishop’s Stortford, but have been unable to help in the campaign as i am studying at York University.
I would be absolutely astonished if the BNP made gains in Bishop’s Stortford, as it is essentially a typically affluent market town. The local press were astounded by the fact that the BNP were even standing in the first instance; hopefully raising the possibility of a BNP victory has ensured that the Stortford people have come to their senses and repelled this abhorrent threat.
I will post here if i get any further information
(Looking pretty good for the libdems in york though!)
51 - The usual system is to get the ballot boxes in for the whole town/city to one central point and for the same counters to count all of the wards. I don’t know if this means counting wards one at a time but probably nobody counts all the wards at once. You would need a lot of counters for that.
53. Why would SSP voters not go Labour, now the SNP are backed by some of the richest businessmen in Scotland?
46. Err, Dundee East is already held by the SNP
64. It’s usually called the ‘Daily Ranger’ or the ‘Daily Rebel’.
Nick P, Tabman - any guesses at turnout? As high as 50%?
Agree local polling station seemed busier than normal. But that was just a snapshot from the time when we voted.
First result from Motherwell & Wishaw expected within 30 mins.
Tories reported to be pushing PC very hard in Anglesey. See 21. This could be ******* funny if it happens.
it’s very satisfying to see Patsy getting an absolute pasting, especially given her ridiculous comment about buckets in schools. Perhaps she’d like to come and inspect the buckets in my hospital department the next time it rains.
51 - we’re counting in two tranches. There is the added complication in multi-member wards of ensuring you capture all the permutations of vote-splitting.
68 previous majority 90
69 - not overall, but in some wards where there has been a big battle could be that high. IIRC one of the wards in Rushcliffe had the highest turnout of any in the country in 2003, admittedly on a all-postal ballot.
67: As a fellow Stortfordian (If that’s a word) I’m glad it seems unlikely the BNP would win, and I agree it would be astonishing.
But disillusionment is high with politics in general, and a protest vote for a local councillor might be less of a moral hurdle for disgruntled voters fed up with the mainstream parties’ bland sameness than a vote for the BNP in a more important election. I hope i’m wrong.
71 punter, apparently the turnout wasn’t very high in Ynys Mon
Reports: Ochil too close to call. Con gains expected in north, central and lowlands Scotland.
Con to gain Ynys Mon.
Con to gain Montgomery. Its cheeky time!
72. I dearly hope to be ‘up for Hewitt’ at the next GE
Is the BBC doing the Scottish election coverage as a web-feed the Welsh coverage is easy to find on the homepage but a link to the Scottish would be appreciated if it exists as I can’t seem to find it!
68. And Labour isn’t? Plus, an anti-nuclear and pro-independence party would presumably be more likely to chime with SSP voters. The 2003 figures suggest most of the SSP’s success in that election came at the expense of the Nats.
71 - Yes, that would be great.
Just heard Welsh blogs being monitored on 18 Doughty Street are reporting Labour in serious trouble in Newport, against the Tories in the west and the Lib Dems in the East. I used to live in Newport, the though of Labour losing it would be hugely amusing.
OK found it off this page
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6614789.stm
Not made obvious!
What’s happened to Vote 2007?
72 - Leicester West?! That’d take some doing… though it wouldnt be totally impossible for either the Tories or LibDems to give it a decent crack.
Not the only one Mike - I hadn’t been able to find it either!
80 - The Scottish coverage is on BBC Parliament: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/bbc_parliament/default.stm
85. Yeah I know…but wouldn’t it be great?
BBC Parly is simalcasting Scotish election.
Sean T; there are no exit polls because they’re vastly expensive. I led national polls for Harris for ITN in the 1987-92 period and they cost a couple of hundred thousand pounds even then. Regional polls really wouldn’t be much cheaper, as they still need the sample size and the number of sampling points to be valid.
The audience for other than a general election will not justify the cost for the media. We’re just going to have to keep watching real results - elsewhere and here!
80 go to BBC Parliament
78. Explain. Is this your view or hard opinion from BBC etc.
LibDem Voice:
“News from Bristol - big problems with the postal vote in one ward as more postal vote ballot papers have come back than the council issued! Most likely explanation so far is a bad printing error which results in one ward’s ballot papers going out across a much wider area.”
The start of the pattern for the night…
84 - Vote 2007 has been off most of the day. Earlier there was a message reading, “this account has been suspended”. A shame, as it was quite a good source of advance info from around the country last year.
94. There’s now a new message saying something along the lines that the traffic volume has crashed it and it won’t be back before tomorrow.
92. Punter, beware of Ave It. Simple Tory ramping, don’t bother with it.
Vote 2007 - suspect Iain Lindley has other things on his mind today - guess most days this would have been rectified straight away. A bit frustrating, but these things happen.
I understand in (compulsory postal voting) Stevenage 2000 votes have gone ‘to the wrong address’ - how can anyone still defend this cruddy system? Prescott has undermined the whole reliability of the voting process.
Doughty Street reports Hull to LD from NOC with 6 LD gains from Labour
71. Pushing hard usually means close but no biscuit though doesn’t it?
First result from Chorley Chorley East Lab 963 Con 388 Ind 242 big swing TO Lab from Con from last year
98 - Kingbongo, we probaby agree on very little, but I’m with you all the way in loathing the postal voting system. My wife filled in hers today and I was astonished to find she had to sign the outside of the envelope!
re 101….stop the counting, that’ll do.
re 101….stop the counting, that’ll do.
Chorley East last year Labour 798 Conservative 605
No no he is simply ensuring that the election results reflect the true interests of the people, not any deluded ideas about their interests they might have themselves.
Jeremy Vine on Newsnight looks like he’s been forced to wear an outfit chosen by a trendy Aunt who doesn’t realise her analy retentive nephew doesn’t do ‘relaxed’. His Peter Snow moves need a bit more work too
Salmond has virtually guaranteed that the SNP have won the Western Isles. How could he know this?
spent the day calling Clwyed West, Aberconwy & Arfon. Arfon looks like it could be a very close call between PC & Labour. Also heard that PC leader Ieuan Jones could lose his seat to the Tories. Now that would make my night!
108. er, cos they won it on a massive swing at westminter in 2005?
Chorley North East Lab 858 Con 597 New Party 251 very small swing TO Con from Lab from last year
107 - and that ‘tennis’ graphic is the most contrived, patronising and unnecessary for some time. If the BBC graphics department are doing it on purpose, I salute them.
111. Didn’t know the Blackshirts were standing in Chorley ! (New Party?)
69: I shouldn’t think turnout overall was high, Cookie, but Beeston West where you live was targeted by all three parties and had a new Green too so it’d be odd if turnout wasn’t over 50%. I canvassed there very intensively during the last week, but felt that most people would get themselves to the polls there anyway (the ward is full of Guardian and Telegraph readers…) so on polling day switched to the Stapleford ward. As it turned out, we had nasty computer problems in your ward on the day so our GOTV effort wasn’t up to much there anyway - it’ll be interesting to see if it matters.
111 - Mark - where are you getting these from? Not that I doubt their veracity - I’d just like some stats to pore over.
108 - from the TV screen it looked as though the rest of the seat is being counted but they won’t be able to finish until the boxes from Barra come in.
110. That alone hardly guarantees they’ve won it this time, especially after all the Angus MacNeil stuff. Labour had a chance of winning it back.
Turn to Sky the coverage is better in my opinion.
Chorley South West Lab 718 Con 548 Ind 441 not fought last year small swin from Lab to Con since 2004
Arfon looks like it could be a very close call between PC & Labour
Seriously?
115 Chorley Council website
114 - interesting, Nick - thanks.
Rather lively discussion on Dinner with Portillo. Lauren Booth threw water at a former Sun editor, and Portillo declared himself a Blairite!
113 See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_Party_%28UK%29 for the New Party got 272 votes in Chorley in 2006
16.”Labour vote seems to have gone en masse to the Lib Dems, but the Tories were pretty firm.”
Dan, SNP activists I know in that constituency are reporting that the Labour vote has moved en masse to them. We will soon find out who is right, although I know one long time libdem voter there who went SNP for this election as a protest against Labour.
I heard a report on Newsnight that Scottish turnout up by about 10% and will possible be in the low 60’s!
120 -thats what i was told the othe rweek that Labour had made enough contact to win and this evening I was told that they had managed to get the supporters out especailly in the Bangor area.
121 - oh. I’d thought maybe there was some source of all results everywhere. If it’s just a case of looking on every individual council’s website, I’ll wait for you to do it for me (for which thank you).
Chorley North West Con 1349 Lab 1056 won by an Ind in 2004 small swing to Con from Lab since 2003
113. Not wanting to be pedantic or anything but the New Party werent the Blackshirts; one of Oswalds slightly earlier wheezes
123 No surprise about Portillo.
4 Con gains from Labour in South Ribble, so far.
BBC Scotland says ‘Labour falls well short of winning half the seats in the Welsh Assembly’.
92/96 - not hard evidence from BBC
All - Ave it is calling the biggest Con comeback in Wales/Scotland since 1955!
Merthyr - could it happen?
Sounds like a Tory disater inm the North is underway. Chorley is a target seat, isn’t it?
132 - Ave it is a Big Con. Says it all, really
133 - see 130
132 - Merthyr, no. lol
48 “Hope the story isn’t true, not sure why Bishops Stortford would attract a BNP vote”
Perhaps it has something to do with Labour’s open door immigration policy.
You shouldnt be surprised. Some have been warning about this for years…but they were dismissed as racist.
The BNP is just a counter weight to Labour. If the BNP is extremist, it is because Labour is extremist.
No other country discriminates against its own people.
125. ChrisD, presumably that Lab-to-SNP trend will affect who currently holds non-Lab seats as well as Lab seats, e.g. would that be good for Con in Eastwood and Dumfries, and good for SNP in Tweeddale, Galloway and Gordon? Just randomly plucking non-Lab seats out of the air.
‘Ello Tabman.
135: and 128…
on 18 Doughty Street they’re saying BNP gains in Epping
139 - hulloo there big man
137: Er, I think the racists are those who vote BNP.
[124] We could always have a whip-round for a bed in a sanatorium for Ave It, I suppose…
15 mins to first declaration in Scotland: Jack McConnell in Motherwell.
According to LibDemVoice: “look out for a poor Tory performance in Hinckley & Bosworth (East Midlands) as the Liberal Democrats make gains”
144 Ave It is funny - all the parties seem to have these characters who ramp shamelessly
Salmond to lose his seat? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha…
146 - Lib Dems upset Tories in the E Midlands … ?
Labour hold Sunderland - Labour down 2, LibDems down 1, Others up 3
137 - are you Nick Griffin or one of his skinhead goons?
“No other country discriminates against its own people.” Either way, you do talk crap!
He doesn’t have a seat to lose, no?
143. You are very sharp. There’s no getting anything past you, is there…
148. Source?
ConHome says rumours of swing to tories in Bournemouth, anyone able to confirm/refute?
Did you hear Lib Dems reckon they’ve taken Alex Salmond’s seat?
154 - I believe Nick Robinson, from Lib Dem sources. (According to 18 Doughty Street)
Robinson on BBC, doesn’t have seat at moment.. Should be ‘Salmond to lose the seat he is fighting to Lib Dems’.
134 - lolololol
Scotland: Cunninghame North close - could be 1983!
Wales: Con well clear in Ynys Mon, Bridgend
155. Wouldn’t be a huge surprise after the ‘bugs in the bins’ saga
A rallying of the unionist vote to thwart Salmond is surely not unexpected?
143. So everyone who votes BNP is racist?
Gordon is presently a safe Lib Dem seat which Salmond is fighting. In any other circumstance it would be an easy LD hold.
143. So everyone who votes BNP is racist?
Any more French polls out yet?
I thought 3 were due but only 2 reported so far on previous thread (54/46 and 53/47).
Apparently a recount to decide last ward in Hull. If goes right, Lib Dem will have overall control.
151. I put it to you that you talk crap.
I have being saying that the BNP will gain from Labour’s Open Door Immigration policy for many years. Often to be called a racist by idiots like you.
Labour does indeed discriminate against the British people. Resources are allocated on need rather than merit. That is why immigrants go to the head of the queue.
Me? I’m not racist. I’m not even white.
You? You talk crap and the BNP is the result of people like you.
162 - Well racists would vote for a racist party wouldn’t they.
Conservatives hold Tamworth - Con up 3, Lab down 3
143. Actually forget about replying. I couldnt be bothered.
Re the BNP. I said on this site about a fortnight ago that I’d been in Cornwall and heard quite liberal people saying they might vote BNP as a protest against immigration, multiculturalism, and just about everything. Cornwall has zero ethnic minorities.
The BNP is gaining as the other parties crowd towards the PC centre left. The mendacity of Labour on migration and the tendency of the liberal elite to shout “racist” at everyone who refuses to worship at the altar of ethnic diversity is the best recruitment agent for the far right.
By contrast, the easiest way to scotch the BNP is for a patriotic rightwing party to sound tough but sensible on these same issues. Sarkozy’s robust stance on migration and French identity has successfully scuppered Le Pen, and a good thing too.
OT I am streaming BBC election coverage, posting on here, and sipping my Californian Pinot Noir as I watch the sun set on the Texas sagebrush. I recommend this way of observing UK elections.
156. No, Alex Salmond is trying to win a Lib Dem seat. Keep up at the back…
But if SNP do well in the constituency section he could miss out on a seat alltogeher which would be fairly amusing as a First Minister in waiting.
Patten in Bath all over again - the mastermind without a platform. If only Brown would ship him off to the Turks and Cacoas islands or something…
162/164 - everyone who votes BNP is voting for racists.
164: Some may vote as a protest. There are shades of racism perhaps. Personally I would vote for anyone but (and did).
Welsh Assembly:
Rumours about Newport- Conservatives apparently doing very well in Newport West, Lib Dems doing very well in Newport East.
Patrick Harvie suggesting he’s easily been returned on the list in Glasgow. Hope so.
BBC saying rumours about Newport East and Liberal Democrats!
BBC Wales hinting that the LDs are doing well in Newport East.
The reds and yellows are obsessed with the lack of Conservative representation in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle. It’s three councils! Admittedly quite big councils, but still.
Tamworth: I don’t know whether anyone has seen the actual ward results, but the C gaining three of Labour’s four seats defended suggest a swing of around 5% from 2003.
150. BBC site has different figures.
161. I would expect it to be only as strong as the rallying of the anti-Labour vote.
Sky - sensible words from Ben Spencer, Daily Record.
Scottish know if SNP get in, cash lifeline from England gets turned off.
can’t see Labour losing the 2 seats in Newport. Also it would be a suprise if Labour lost Bridgend. Isn’t CArwyn Jones tipped to take over from Rhodri Morgan.
Too much spin on here, too much spin on the TV, there’s an opening for a spin free channel somewhere. Some of us see through it pretty easily you know.
170: sorry, had already half composed a message. I agree it’s not worth a pointless slanging match. I will post no more in reply to 167 or any of his other predictable posts either.
177 - And Andrea wouldn’t believe me when I said that was a safe seat..
I’m hearing the Green seat in Liverpool (defector from Lib Dems) has been held. But no other news.
Interesting: LDs were 3rd there last time.
tories take a seat of theyellow peril in Harlow LD held for 20 years (from ConHome)
Lib Dems take Hull, making the six gains needed
187. Oh come on. You started it.
After talking crap its a bit late to adopt a dignified silence.
What does the C stand for anyway?
180 - ditto the BBC. Even BBC North-West, which you would expect to have more of a clue than the chiefs down in London…
Everyone who votes BNP is indeed voting for racists. But that doesn’t mean everyone that votes for them IS racist. It’s not a logical progression. A vote for the BNP can be simply a big if irresponsible F*** YOU to the Establishment. I’m sure that counts for a lot of their recent support.
And of course it can also be a vote against further immigration - not in itself a racist desire - the BNP and UKIP are the only two parties promising to severely curb immigration.
(Newport I mean)
Tories doing well in eastwood
Mr eugendies reports
11:53pm: Stirling is Michael Forsyth’s old [Westminster] seat, and the Tories are trying desperately to take it “back”. They require a swing of just under 5% to capture it from Labour.
My man inside the Stirling Tory campaign says - and this is hard information, by the way - that the Tories were ahead on the postal vote, with the SNP pushing Labour into third. With half the ballots now counted, the SNP are in pole position - just - with the Tories second and Labour still third. The remaining votes are, they think, from more rural areas of the constituency, which tend to be more Tory. It’s going to be tight.
Labour has won the 2 byelections in Hustings. 2 gains from the tories
Hull can look forward to 30% increase in council tax next year……
I started posting a reply to 167, but I don’t really want to get involved either.
In one of the Hustigns byelections there has been a 11.8% swing from Con to Lab
so how is it looking for each party based on the results so far? as expected?
Salmond seems to be talking down the SNP’s chances a bit: whether or not they win, it’s “an historic challenge to Labour” etc etc. Labour’s Betfair odds are very long, though. We’ll see.
198, 201 - Hastings presumably?
I believe that enables Labour to regain control of Hastings.
re 201 what’s the source for this?
Salford
Pendlebury Ward: Lab hold
Ordsall Ward: Lab hold
where is Hustings? Is it Hastings? No offence, my Italian is terrible..
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