Where have all the voters gone?
May 3rd, 2007
Is turnout low all over the country?
The strong impression in Bedford where I have been working today is that turnout is remarkably low and certainly is substantially down on where we were on previous local election days at lunchtime.
If this is happening here is the same going on elsewhere? And if there is going to be a really low turnout which parties are going to benefit and which are the losers.
One feature we have here for the first time is a new anti-vote fraud procedure. Everybody has to sign for their ballot forms and each elector has to answer a specific question that they are the person they say they are. If voting was at all brisk then this could cause problems at the polling station. As it is it is hardly an issue.
What’s your experience of today so far?
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Very, very quiet in Horsham 8-10am. One man and his dog. Saw a total of only FIVE people including me at two stations in 2 hours.
Sunny day won’t help…possibly things will pick up in the late afternoon/early evening.
All 3 leaflets from the main parties through my door were basically the same, but why should I believe them anyway? I don’t know who controls my council, I don’t know what they do, or why my council tax is so high. More to the point, I have no idea what anyone else would do differently. I think voting on national issues is a bit daft, although I admit the temptation to give Blair a kicking is there.
If it’s sunny tonight I might vote, but i doubt it.
3 - I sympathise, Jon - it must be very difficult to choose if you can’t be bothered to find out the answers to these questions.
3. Don’t you have some responsibility to find out who controls your council Jon? All councils have websites and you should be able to find out within 3 or 4 clicks.
I’m amazed at how few people know there are elections on. Back off out campaigning now. Fingers crossed.
Certainly it is quiet at my local polling station. Hardly surprising as my ward is Conservative unopposed, though.
Thanks for changing the thread Mike! I’ve just posted a piece on the previous thread about the first poll post the french debate; it’s not good good news for Sego.
3- Don’t the leaflets give any clue as to who controls the council?
1. Jonathan, do you think is ahead after 5 people turning out?
Yet another PP Blair market…..
When will Tony Blair announce his resignation?
When Will Blair Announce Resignation?
Applies to the date Tony Blair officially announces to the public that he will be resigning as Prime Minister. Other dates on Request
Thursday 10th May 2007 1.80
Friday 11th May 2007 3.50
Wednesday 9th May 2007 3.75
Tuesday 8th May 2007 7.00
3. Then why not find out something about these matters that so exercise you, rather than whining about them from a position of complete ignorance?
Went round to vote at 9.45 this morning, and I was only the third person to have been in. Still, they had a rush on as my girlfriend was their fourth at the same time!
Incidently, surprised to see how the (not-so-mighty) are fallen… our former MP, Harold Best (Labour) was doing a session of telling in the polling station doorway. Can’t be up to much since he got ousted by L-D Greg Mulholland.
I reckon the turnout in Birmingham will be well down. This is the first year there havne’t been any streetlamp posters - which in a safe ward like mine was usually the only indication that an election was going on at all. I haven’t seen a single poster for any party during this campaign.
When I voted this morning in North Stockport at about 9.0am, it was very, very quiet but the ladies there expected ‘business to pick up later’.
Turnout could be low as election coverage seems suppressed on the news.
UVF, Iraq and Alan Ball are the headlines on BBC News.
However, like most people, I have a full-time job which precludes me from voting in the morning. It’s enough of a rush to get to work as it is without queuing a polling station.
Those I know who are voting are all going this evening. I can’t believe turnout will be lower than last year.
This is a very significant set of elections.
12.”Can’t be up to much since he got ousted by L-D Greg Mulholland”
Best didn’t stand when Mulholland won. He retired (and I suppose he’s enjoying his pension now). Mulholland defeated Judith Blake
O/T The Scottish election betting market has been very good for trading this morning mainly due to low liquidity - I backed the SNP at 1.82 an hour or so ago and just laid at 1.43 - no effort at all.
@12 Harold Best retired there was a different Lab candidate in 2005 who got beaten by G. Mulholland. I would add that whilst I prefer Lib Dems to Lab (barely) give me Harold over Greg any day!
Heavy Labour defeat on a low turnout would give quite a lot of room for spin…
Sorry to harp back to the previous thread.
The candidates you vote for may be from the same party, from several different parties or be independents – but every single choice counts!
From the http://www.votescotland.com/stv/39.html website mentioned in the previous thread.
Pretty poor for an official explanation which will tend to mislead voters that they are voting for lots of people when in reality there vote will only elect one person - why do they think it’s called SINGLE transferable vote?
Re: 17
Yes, my mistake. I do recall Best retiring.
As for your second point - I agree wholeheartedly. On any press articles or LibDem election propaganda he looks nothing but shifty and slimy. There are plenty of examples in Parliament where that is not a default!
Maybe the voters would bother if the parties bothered. Although my ward is safe Labour (Reading BC - Abbey, I have not seen or heard anything from the 3 major parties. Not one mangy leaflet! The only leaflet I’ve had is from the wonderful named Roman party who’s main policy is to deport all prisoners to Siberia (if Putin doesn’t mind of course. Crazy but not much worse than the one way IDR though! Still I will give them my endorsement as I think effort should be rewarded.
21.”The only leaflet I’ve had is from the wonderful named Roman party who’s main policy is to deport all prisoners to Siberia ”
and the money saved from prisons can be used for NHS
Turnout seems up at normal levels in the polling stations I’ve been to in Birmingham - despite the lack of lamp post posters. My guess is that it will go down in safe seats and be normal or up in contested seats.
Well turn out was good at my polling station in yorkshire.
I went in to vote around 9AM and as i came out 3-4 people arriving in seperate cars walked in to vote. Two were old aged pensioners one was a women with a very nice car! (Nice T-shirt!) and there was a bloke in a suit!
I decided to vote Tory due to the dogma i saw on these pages yesterday - peddled by Jonathan i think it was!
19 - Perhaps it should say “every single choice might count”. Then again, with fractional transfer of surplus votes, it’s very likely that a small part of your vote will make it down to your lowest choices.
O/T
blue moon, in case you missed this on previous thread….
146 - blue moon, thanks a lot for this. I’ve been looking for one of these all morning. Where can I find the raw numbers?
so what will a low turnout mean for the Tories and Labour?
3. Jon’s position is entirely rational.
Individual members have extremely little power even when they pursue a particularly issue vigorously. If they don’t belong to the controlling group their power is further reduced. Within the controlling group even the strongest portfolio holders generally need to refer to their leaders, whose own ability to deliver change and / or good management is dependent on an unusual degree of competence and professionalism from senior officers. The local newspaper is generally difficult for the sake of headlines rather than because it wishes to properly scrutinise government and further limits a council’s scope for action (or sensible inaction). National targets, stretched budgets, an impossible audit regime and the increased mobility of senior staff further damage the good delivery of local services.
Much like the national picture. No wonder then that turnout is falling. Apathy is a rational response to a dysfunctional system and a lack of vision. This is to the benefit of those who do still believe strongly in something: the nationalists, the environmentalists and all the other mentalists.
27. Depends if it is differentiated turnout. You would think it would benifit the tories in England. Apart from Nick palmer i think most English Labour MP’s have written it off and concentrated on Scotland and wales. Certainly that’s where they have sent Blair and Brown. Parodically maybe they will do better in England because of that!!!
We also have to remember that the BBC were reporting a big increase in postal vote applications, so maybe that will boost turnout.
I find that turnout usually gets high in the evenings due to people finishing work, the morning and early afternoon are usually pensioners.
Labour voters I spoke with are abstaining - or spoiling papers.
28. That post looks like the product of some form of obsessive compulsive disorder.
The news websites dont seem to be covering the election very well, Sky News website hardly mentions it at all!
My theory has long been that people are more easily energised to vote AGAINST individuals and parties than FOR them. If this holds, then a low turnout is unlikely to bode well for Labour.
This could be bad for Labour but it is likely to be pretty marginal less than half a percent of the vote!
Still it shows how disgusting it is that people have been able to do this. On a personal point i had a dream last night that i was disenfrachised at an election because we had to vote via computer in polling booths. I dreamt i could not fill all the pages in the required time and my vote was voided along with many other people. It would be funny if it was not so far from day to day life!
Maybe i should be dreaming about naked women not voting!!!
35. Sorry the link to the times!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1739250.ece
32. Sniping again? Do you use a different identity to make contributions which aren’t insults?
Is there an election on today? Gosh- would never have known.
I have heard that the Tories have a cunning ruse this year - they are going to intercept the BBC like Max Headroom and have an hour of Cameron on at 6PM to drum out the Tory voters!!!
OT. Thanks Yokel for the info on the Irish GE in the previous thread. Your view that 45-49 seats for FG is within reach certainly ties in with my view based on the price movements on Paddy Power which I presume are the most liquid market.
The market for 49+ seats for FG on PP has been backed down from 3.5 to 1.9, so the odds of 2.0 (Evens) that Hills are offering for 47+ seats and 2.25 that Boyles are offering for 48+ seats look interesting.
The likelihood of FG gains also means that a FG/LAB/Green coalition is the current favourite for next government at 2.75 with PP, but the 2nd favourite of a FF/LAB coalition has now closed to 3.00 (2/1) with PP, based I presume on Bertie Ahern’s status as favoutite for Taoiseach, and this being the most likely coalition option if they lose seats. Therefore there looks to be value in the 4.33 (10/3) price that Hills still have for FF/LAB.
Any thoughts?
When I voted in Ceredigion today, there were two people in front of me and when I left there were five people waiting to vote at 10.30am.
41. You still hold your predictions.
11 et al: They don’t exercise me at all, i’m not whining, just answering the question at the top of the page. I will just for you clicked and found out who my council is…,(drum roll)…. Wow I feel a whole lot better now…
I suspect i could have read the leaflets a bit harder and gleaned the info from that - I didn;t give them my whole attention, shame on me….
But this thread is about where the voters are, I think there must be a lot of voters like me, in fact I strongly suspect most people are far more apathetic than I am - I read this site quite a bit for one thing, and I bet most leaflets go unread into the bin.
I thought the point of this thread was to genuinely find out why voters can’t be bothered. It’s no good you getting on your high horse. No-one has addressed the point that in general people aren;t interested. Why not? Many reasons, but partly because the parties have converged, because politicians are not well thought of, because of years of spin, of style over substance etc. We just don’t believe any of it any more.
O/T John McDonell has crept up to 3.25/5.25 on Cantorspreadfair (the runner up in the Labour leader market gets 10, winner 25).
As I have mentionned on a previous thread, there were four people in front of me at 7am this morning - an an old lady came in when I went out at 7:05am. Swansea West, Uplands Ward.
O/T France - re blue moon’s post, I found the Opinion Way post-debate poll ….
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/opinionway_03_05.pdf
I spent a couple of mornings delivering a few hundred party leaflets two weeks ago. They were in the form of a newspaper - 4 pages. They were on my kitchen table for a day or so. I haven’t a clue what was in them. I’m reasonably committed and interested in politics but when I tried to read one it was indescribably dreary and boring.
43 it did seem odd you explaining where one of the voters had gone and then being attacked by the ever-spewing fount of wisdom that is ColinW.
I think you’re wrong, I don’t think the parties have converged. I think they have been very poor at explaining their vision and executing it in a way people understand.
Part of this is the obsession with handing power over to unelected bodies so that ministers can wash their hands of responsibility when it suits them. A process started under the tories but taken to a whole new level by the current government. At local level almost no real power is left in the hands of councils; again a process started by the tories and continued by Labour. Now they all talk about localism but none of them (LDs included) really want power exercised locally.
‘Certainly that’s where they have sent Blair and Brown. Parodically maybe they will do better in England because of that!!!’by Martin Day May 3rd, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Parodically is this a misspelling of paradoxically, or have you used the stem of parody to form a new adverb form of the word.
Either would seem to fit.
Surely the reason for the low turnout is simple:
It’s probably the case that no-one wants to vote for Labour, but those who have in the past have no interest in voting for the Tories or the Libs either.
By the way, if you want to feel nice and patriotic without dipping into politics, check out the latest post on my website-
Stonch’s Beer Blog - we’re best in the world at something, and better still you can drink it!
Cheers!
40
What about Sinn Fien? They got 5 seats on 6.5% of the vote while the Greens and PD’s got 8 and 6 seats with less votes (4% and 3.8%). It would follow that they must have just missed out on a number and so a small increase in votes might give them relatively more seats?
No idea if this is a correct assumption though. You reckon that 11 to 12 seats at 7/2 is a decent bet?
46- Obviously I share the impression of the majority in these polls…
The press this morning was mixed : only Libération and L’Humanité (both rabid anti-sarkozysts) tried to explain she won the debate. Most others shared the opinion of a draw or a small sarkozy victory. In particular, the regional press (which has many more readers than the national papers) was not good for Royal, except in the 2 south-west papers (La dépêche and Sud-Ouest) who are read in the most socialist-leaning regions.
Le Parisien (quite pro-Royal during the campaign)gave a small advantage to Sarkozy.
At least the apathetic are working hard keeping this blog going whilst our betters are out servicing democracy.
43 jon c- good post- what we should be asking is “why should voters be bothered to get out and vote?”
The French election shows that people can be engaged in politics. The 2004 US election as well.
You know the recent call for Miliband and Clegg as party leaders to mimic Cameron who in turn apes Blair is symptomatic of where politics is heading to in this country, Sanitised, risk averse, spun politics spearheaded by accountants.
There is not an election in Central North Oxford today, but I have long gone past the point of voting for Labour, would never vote Tory, and get bored by the blandness of the LD’s. All three parties will be expounding the same policies, albeit with a different spin by each. This will be replicated in a general election.
Bored, unimpressed, depressed, disengaged, disenchanted- the British public should rightly say sod off to the lot of you, and not take part in this charade that voting makes a difference. It does not.
49. It was a typo! paradoxically
When i was at the polling station this morning, there had been a bit of a scene earlier. I did not want to mention it but a mother and child went into the polling station. Unfortunatly the father had passed away recently and the poll tellers asked how the husband was to the lady. She replied he had passed away - too which they replied that the deceased had been in and voted Labour first thing this morning. The child was extreamley upset as his daddy had voted for tony blair but not come to see him - He did not understand!
On Betfair, apart from £2 available to back SNP at all prices from 1.40 down to 1.10 (2/5 down to 1/10), there is only £856 available to back the SNP between 1.35 and 1.31. Is such a lack of liquidity good news for SNP backers?
43. Jon C, we get the politics and politicians we deserve. There is nothing like a high turnout and a clear message from the voters to focus the minds of the politicians.
“I think they have been very poor at explaining their vision and executing it in a way people understand.” I have to disagree, I just don’t think that as many voters bother to read leaflets or follow politics as keenly these days. I also think that the confrontational manner of some political interviews turns people off and does little to enlighten the viewer about the politician other than a few sound bites.
People who are getting reamed by this govt - ie taxpayers - are all out working - probably busier this evening
55 - you managed to tell that story in a very crass way. Either you’re making it up, in which case shame on you, or its true in which case shame on you.
There was a queue of two (including me) in Birmingham at 7.45 this morning - still that’s one more than I usually encounter at that time.
They seem to have stopped punching the official mark in Birmingham too. I queried it when they handed me my paper and was told that they now print it on and indeed there was a printed mark on the paper. Another retrograde step if you ask me - still it’ll fit in with the image of Birmingham voting if ballots get stuffed with photocopies.
48: At local level they seem to have converged. Everyone wants better street lights, better schools’n'ospitals, more efficient management of the leisure centre blah-de-blah. At a local level i couldn;t realy disagree with any of the headlines on the leaflets I skim read from any party.
At a general election i would certainly vote, at the moment for Cameron, but even this would be more for negative reasons, to get rid of the current government. I certainly haven;t got his poster on my bedroom wall.
51 GH, I don’t know much about Irish politics except that they use the Single Transferable Vote system, but I’d guess that the Greens and the Progressive Democrates pick up a lot of second preferences from Labour and each other, whereas Sinn Fein are a bit more isolated.
59-stonch- the story is a complete fabrication. The tellers would not disclose voting intentions in this way, even to a deceased relative. They would of had to open up the ballot box, retreive the vote, reconcile it with the voting number, and then break the law and tell a 3rd party the voting intention.
55-Martin Day- I like reading your posts, but for gods sake grow up.
Bit of a mixed story here in Darlington. Slow on the ground at first today, but apparently the rate of return of postal votes was way ahead of “normal” at the end of last week. Hard to be sure, given that Darlington was an all-postal pilot in 2003 - which boosted turnout to over 50% last time and makes benchmarking a bit tricky.
Labour look set for a few losses but to retain control of the council.
40. The problem for the FG/Lab/Green Coalition is that on current form it still has a fair way to go to get the numbers required. And thats before the horse trading starts. FG & Labour seem to be well tied into each other as first choice partners but I have no idea what status the Greens are on lining up with FG & Labour. I’m assuming they’ve discussed it and again its the first preference for coalition on the part of the Greens.
But.
The rainbow coalition has only become favourite recently and I understand where the bookies are coming from regarding Bertie staying on. He was favourite as next PM even though the FG/Lab/Green coalition became favourite largely on the back of some stinking polls for FF.
FF’s previous partners, the Progressive Democrats may face a serious cull at the polls and combined with FF’s ineviatble losses, then the only realistic options open to FF to stay in are to go with Labour and possibly the Greens. Either way the PD’s look to be out certainly with FF as a FF/Labour coalition won’t likely need the PD’s and secondly(maybe Neil can confirm this) I don’t think the Greens would touch being involved with the PDs.
Thus Hills bigger odds are not too bad at all, especially if you could line up and arb with a FG/Lab/Green coalition at some point if the market swings appropriately. A FF/Lab pact is likely to be the only open option for FF to stay on as the PD’s won’t be enough alone. It may need the Greens as well but possibly won’t.
As Neil pointed out elsewhere, FG & Labour would almost certainly need the Greens to get a majority (short of a stunning FG & Labour seat tally) whilst FF could possibly make it without the Greens.
52 - Chris(from Paris), I agree. I think it was a profound mistake by Royal’s team to encourage her dark side. All she did was alienate UDF voters who could have been delivered a combination of calm centrism and today’s semi-announcement from Bayrou that he’s supporting her.
Speaking of which, what on earth is Bayrou’s strategy now? Is he assuming a crushing Royal defeat that will deliver the right of the PS into his new party and a strong showing in the June legislatives? Because, if not, it seems to me he’s committing suicide in slow motion.
56. Those markets have dried up badly. The Labour market is was even worse.
62 - correct Sinn Féin have a huge problem atracting transfers, however that is less of a problem now (even speaking personally I would consider transferring to them now when I would never have done so in the past). As well as that they will improve in 1st preferences too. Expect them to make gains in Dublin and Donegal and one or two surprises elsewhere perhaps - unfortunately gains are already priced in by the bookies.
65 - I would have thought there was zero chance of a FF / PD / Green coalition getting passed the Green membership. That said I know it’s on the wishlist of quite a few PD supporters but probably only because it is their only route back into government.
61 I think you probably speak for millions of people -
Where I live Labour couldn’t be bothered putting up any candidates at all and the LDs only 16 out of about 40. That denies the electorate a proper choice. I was almost tempted to stand as an Independent Labour just to give the voters the option of voting for a leftie, but as there is a crypto-trot LD running (disguised as a nice old lady worried about litter - think Rose Addis in sandals) there was no point in my ward.
57 you make the point I was trying to and failed - people aren’t as interested and the nature of the modern political scene puts people off. I do think though that politicians need to respond in a more imaginative way (and not by gimmicks like the Big Conversation)
O/T France
Punters on Betfair seems to have picked up the results of yesterday’s debates : last prices are 0.18/1 for Sarkozy and 5.2/1 for Royal.
Still very good odds for a quasi-certainty
The SNP’s YouGov “bounce” didn’t last long, did it? They’re back out at 1.39. I still think Labour are just going to make it: “fear, not hope, will win”, as one of their spokesmen put it.
Incidentally, does anyone know what the best way is to damage a party under STV? Should you rank all the others, putting them last, or leave out altogether the one you want to disadvantage?
All quiet in Reading - but I have been in two wards with notoriously low turnouts. Oxford Labour Party rumoured to be in town helping their comrades, but I haven’t seen them.
Off to my own Polling Station now - I have to go, because I cocked up my Postal Vote. Deeply embarrassing.
GB out to 1.1 from 1.07….. surely not on Guido’s story ??
69 Where abouts are you KB? Sounds a bit rubbish - democracy wise - up your neck of the woods.
A methodology question for results tonight
When calculating swing in multi-member council seats are you supposed to compare the candidates with the lowest votes, the highest votes, or use an average of candidate votes for each party???????
66- About Bayrou
His “I won’t vote Sarko” stand today is principally motivated by his bitterness in seeing all his MPs flee to Sarko. He certainly expected SOME to do so, but not the whole pack. very revealing detail : he watched yesterday’s debate in the UDF HQ but no other MP was present…
I don’t know how he imagines that his anti-sarko stance will help him to secure more votes in the legislative elections…
The thing he needs is a sarko victory to help a possible Socialist party split
[I met yesterday night one guy from Strauss-Kahn's team of advisors that acknowledged their intention to "strike" against Royal and Hollande as soon as possible after the (unavoidable) defeat. The idea is to get the party's leadership and either to expell the left-wing or to provoke them to leave by themeselves]
But Bayrou needs that sarko’s margin of victory stays small. If Sarkozy wins convincingly, Bayrou might be seen as an irrelevant sideshow quite soon…
69 kingbongo, I don’t think it needs all that much imagination to re-engage people. Changing the election system to something better than FPTP, ideally STV, would immediately abolish all the rotten one-party wards where there really is no point for people to go and vote. Second preferences would also reduce the need for cloying party unity and the crowding of the centre.
I enjoyed voting in the Scottish council elections today because preferential voting gives you a lot of choice without having to worry about wasting your vote, and it might actually make a difference to the make-up of the council. I hope people aren’t too daunted by the new system and get a taste for it so that perhaps next time round it replaces that ridiculous Additional Member System for the Parliament elections.
re 71. the best way is a co-ordinated campaign for certain parts of the electorate to rank in a particular way, others parts another etc. That way you try and prevent an unpopular candidate from being eliminated by failing to attract enough 1st preference votes.
Say your 3 lab candidates were Jack Straw, John Cruddas and Tony Blair - you’d try and convince a third of the Labour voting electorate to give each of them their 1st preference, otherwise TB would be eliminated as an unpopular choice for a Labour supporter.
re 75. I think the Irish go on the percentage of 1st pref votes for each party.
75 All of those methods would give very similare overall results . Sean Fear used highest votes and I used average votes for the london elections last year , the results were almost identical but his method was rather faster to calculate .
71 Colin - rank them all, in case it comes down to a fight between your most hated candidate and a slightly better liked one. As an example, not ranking any of the Conservatives, UKIP and the BNP might unintentionally let the BNP in.
69 kingbongo- consultation politics- the big conversation are a nonsense.
Political leaders need conviction and courage to bring people along with them- not asking what the public want, trying to deliver it, falling short, and losing credibility.
Our political leaders are probably the most underwhelming in history- Cameron, Brown aside, who of note is there. The bumbling Boris, tough man Reid. Hardly exceptional, and who else?
Politics over the last generation has attracted a crowd of average political wannabees. People like Osbourne, Miliband, Balls, Clegg, Davy- boring, underwhelming, unexceptional.
When Labour last faced a succession for PM they had Benn, Callaghan, Crossland, Jenkins, Foot, Healey. All visionaries articulating a different path for the party. This was faced by a Tory opposition led by Thatcher, with Carrington, Joseph, Whitelaw, Heseltine.
What a difference a generation makes!!
Jon writes, “All 3 leaflets from the main parties through my door were basically the same, but why should I believe them anyway? I don’t know who controls my council”
Maybe you should find out, Jon, or do you just want to sit there and be spoon-fed? Quit whining and grow up!!!
71 Colin - having read your question again, actually it doesn’t matter whether you rank your last preference or not, as long as you do rank everyone else.
75. You add up the total first preference votes for all candidates of one party.
In Ireland, the odds for Fine Gael-Labour are looking better by the day as Bertie refuses to comment on the matter of the ca. STG £30k (or rather suspiciously the almost exact exchange rate of the day in question for USD $45k). The last MRBI-Irish Times poll (which is normally better for Fine Gael than Red-C) had them with a big jump to 27%. At the time I had considered this an outlier, but I suspect the next poll will show increased support for Fine Gael, with Fianna Fail and the PDs sinking further (in contrast to the last election, PD leader Michael McDowell appears to have forgotten what, in the minds of the electorate at least, is the PD’s raison d’etre: Fianna Fail’s watchdog).
The key to the outcome of this election will be the performance of the independents v. that of Fine Gael.
78 ChrisA - That sort of thing usually doesn’t make a lot of difference. If the three Labour candidates among them have enough votes for three seats, the lowest one would survive via surplus transfers from the other two anyway, and if not, he’d go out of the race at some point anyway. It takes quite particular circumstances for a candidate to accidentally get buried in the early rounds.
Very slow, 120 voters from 0700/1100 Castle Point.
Have been given a list of Postal Voters around 600 out of a pop on my ward of 5000. Ours is a “dormitory” area so when the workers start to come home it may pick up.
76 - That’s such a high-risk strategy. If your DSK-man is right, the Democratic Party won’t be ready for June. And that means Bayrou loses everything.
80, 85 - so it’s ok to use an average or take the highest by the sounds of things?? No common orthodoxy!?
89. No. With STV you use the total first preferences.
76 - also Chris, do you mean the whole left - Fabius through to Besancenot - would merge as suggested by Emanuelli but outside the PS? The PS would be taken over by the likes of DSK, Bockel and Kouchner? Do they have the base to achieve that and kick out all the National Education teachers?
77. Pants. The way to engage people in politics is to have a real difference of opinion on very serious issues, it’s got little to do with voting systems.
The trouble in Britain is that all the parties are trying to dance in the same tiny part of the disco, there’s a conspiracy of silence on issues that really matter to people.
Imagine we had a proper debate over immigration, rather than the mealy-mouthed PC mimeshow we have now. Imagine one party came right out and said: we want lots of immigration, from everywhere. While the other party said: we will put a stop to all immigration from - for example - non European countries.
I think then you would find voters engaging very seriously.
Similarly over Europe. If one party came right out and said: we are happy to integrate further into a European superstate, and one said: we will go no further and we will renegotiate membership if necessary - again I think you would find a serious turnout. Because this stuff matters.
Even the Iraq war would engage people if there was a serious division between the two major parties. Labour could say: we believe what we did was right and the Tories could say: we now think it was a total disaster and we want to prosecute Tony Blair and the rest of the New Labour cabinet for lying to the British people.
Again, I think that campaign might be rather fun, don’t you? Certainly a tad livelier than the bland rubbish we are fed now.
Politicians are always going on about how people really care about the small issues - schools, hospitals, wheelie bins. This is true, people do really care about this stuff. But that doesn’t mean they don’t care just as much or even more about bigger issues: war, identity, sovereignty, migration, morality, the fairness of society.
I think politicians use this “let’s talk about schools and hospitals” mantra as a way of avoiding the big stuff, because they are afraid of what the people think.
The French election shows that, even with the most cynical and disengaged of electorates, when there is a serious divide in the parties the people will turn out.
We need some of that here. But it means addressing the Serious Stuff.
83: I refer the honourable gentleman to post 43
90 - But obviously any such headline swing figure provides a rather incomplete picture of the results in STV elections, where lower preferences can be very important.
76- chris (paris)- do you think this is an election that the left has lost after the unpopularity of Chirac?
Sakozy I am sure would have lived to fight another day, and would be contending the next 2or 3 elections leading the centre right, even if he had failed this time.
The left in France are in a complete mess. Probably not the first time this has been said, but when will they learn their lesson?
Golly - a low tunout/the abstention party is doing well -
Hard to see that coming !
Three virtually identical Labour parties to pick from and the electorate are shunning all of them…
My only prayer is that the BNP don’t benefit as a result
90 - I’m not thinking stv i’m thinking fptp in english councils
88- One thing he will certainly save is money : he will have candidates in all constituencies because public funding of parties is linked (for half) to the number of votes they get in legislative elections. Even with no group in the national assembly he would still probably gather enough votes to build a war-chest for the next presidential campaign.
You’re right, the key will be the relationship DSK ans Bayrou could build, and especially who could get the top job in a possible common party. Bayrou has the legitimity of his votes in the presidential election but DSK would almost certainly command more votes in the National Assembly.
However, all this is pretty much hot air before we know Sunday night’s results…
The legislative election will be interesting as well !
94. To be honest, not really, as these are all 3-seaters. The lower preferences generally only really count in deciding the last seat in a 4/5 seater and overall the system is relatively proportional with regard to 1st prefs/seats, although bigger parties do tend to get a bit of a boost.
92 seanT, a decent election system would enable parties to talk about those big issues, e.g. it would allow the right wing of the Conservative party to split off and shout about immigration and Europe without fear of handing victory to Labour, because their voters could still give their second preference to more centrist Cons. Same thing with Old and New Labour. And one-issue parties like the Greens or UKIP would get a fairer hearing, because once again people wouldn’t need to fear that they’re wasting their votes. It’s the cloying party unity and the fight for swing voters in the centre enforced by first-past-the-post that produces look-a-like parties.
97. As Mark Senior said, the 2 methods produced very similar results in 2006 London locals. The only problems can be in places like Tower Hamlets where in the same ward the Muslim Respect candidate can poll 1,400 votes and the white Trot just 700.
95 - Tyson, I think Sarkozy only has one shot. He has managed to unite the right around him - including many reluctant chiraquiens -because he controlled the party and enthused the base with his promise to end the 1968/1981 settlement. If he fails, there’s too many powerful UMP people to turn against him - people who have more in common with Bayrou than with Sarkozy.
92-seanT- good to see you again- I am only posting around election time- but couldn’t agree more with your post.
UK Politcis is underwhelming, politicians are all trying to look the same, speak the same, and appeal to the same groups. If Cameron wins the next general election it is likey that the politcial leaders for this country will be Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Tweedledum, tweedledee, and tweedlethree, all mimicking the master- one Tony Blair. How deppressing that would be! They could maybe do secondments in each others parties- noone would realize.
Blair’s legacy- he has turned politics into the equivalent of football- whether your team wins or loses may brighten you up the following Monday, but actually it will not make the blind bit of difference to yours or anyone else’s life.
103. ‘it will not make the blind bit of difference to yours or anyone else’s life.’
Why do you assume that is a bad thing?
103 Sadly oh so true….
91- Yes the creation of a party uniting the left of the PS + the Greens + the Communists (and maybe some anti-globalization movements) is a possibility.
I think they would not include the trotskysts though. Besancenot definitely hopes to stay the leader of the far left.
The teachers you talk about are the ones that pick Royal, seen as very right-wing by many left-wingers in France…
95- Yes I think a good socialist candidate could have given much more trouble to Sarkozy. It’s not sure that DSK or Hollande (much better public-speaker than his companion)would have won though, because the first round results have shown how the total left votes are particularly low.
About “learning their lesson”, my point of view is that they really need a very bad electoral defeat to provoke a change.
They have not yet reached that point as not a single government has gained re-election in a legislative election since 1978 (30 years of alternating governments). Thus, the opposition didn’t need to bother reforming itself, only using anti-government rhetoric in the campaigns.
If they stay out of power this time they might understand they have to change, just as Sarkozy has changed the right to be able to stay in power…
102-Master chip
Maybe so- but I think that someone who has exhibited the ruthlessness and blind ambition of Sarkozy would not be pushed out of the way too easily. Sarkozy is a throwback to Napoleon and de Gaulle- and the French yearning for a tough man populist as their leader navigating them through times of change.
102- I cannot see who you are thinking about concerning possible replacements for Sarkozy. What he has managed to do, as Chirac brilliantly did 20 years ago, is to appear way above the other leaders of the right?
Thanks Chris- Sarkozy is a formidable politician, and although I couldn’t support someone of his politcis, a galvinising leader of his ilk for the Tories would have made politcis much more interesting here.
SeanT and Tyson.
As I understand your position a clear ideological divide is important to drive up voting - regardless of whether that divide is good for the country in any other way. The post Thatcher harmoney has clearly been good for the country in everyway except electoral turnout (92 was a Thatcher election)
You cannot run an economy in 5 year blocks - it works in longer cycles than that.
We love voting, but not for elections to assemblies. Get the voting system in line with all the pother things we do - get it into the home
74 I’m in the Cotswolds - which is nothing like as rich as people sometimes think and it is shameful that Labour can’t even put up some candidates
77 sorry, there’s nothing wrong with elections where the person with the most votes is the winner. It’s simple and produces clear results for good or bad. Backroom coalition talks are one of the things I object to.
82 I agree with you again Tyson; thinking of the intellectual battles that raged between the likes of Keith Joseph and Tony Crossland really brings home the pygmy stature of too many modern politicos. Seant’s disco metaphor is about right.
110 what, so your bullying husband/wife/religous elder etc can make sure you are voting the right way? Why do people object so much to the little private booth with a curtain?
74 I’m in the Cotswolds - which is nothing like as rich as people sometimes think and it is shameful that Labour can’t even put up some candidates
You might well get some Labour represmetationn-nice place for Margaret Beckett to pitch up her caravan.
Surely even the sheep are true blue and proud of it in the Cotswolds.
65, 68, 85. Thanks everyone for the insight. I’ve taken a few opening positions and will see how things develop.
John Wheatley- in one sense you are right- it took Blair and his cronies one term to understand the mechanics of government, one term being obsessed with all things foreign policy, and half a term trying to do some tinkering around the edges, to little effect.
Thatcher changed the political landscape in the UK, and her politics dominate British social, economic, and cultural life now, albeit with a softer face. This was true also of the other great post war reforming government- Atlee’s- which led to a consensus in British domestic policy until the late 1970’s.
92 - seanT - “Politicians are always going on about how people really care about the small issues - schools, hospitals, wheelie bins. This is true, people do really care about this stuff. But that doesn’t mean they don’t care just as much or even more about bigger issues: war, identity, sovereignty, migration, morality, the fairness of society.”
That’s bizarre. There was me thinking people cared about the education system and the health system, both being things that effect them on a daily basis, and together using up the bulk of their taxes.
seanT, could you tone down your blog - I used to enjoy reading it, but when I try and log on from my new work it’s blocked - the server says:
“Warning! You have attempted to access an internet site that is blocked by our Firm. The Firm blocks access to this site because it falls in the following categories:
· Adult/Sexually Explicit
· Intolerance & Hate”
!!!
It seems to me that the people will only allow politicians to be “giants” if they have been through a war and a) seen the consequences of the failure of politics and b)earned the right to be forthright and use rhetoric convincingly. The superficial politics of glitz and presentation is the small price we pay for living in peaceful times.
114 - There will almost certainly be a poll this Sunday, probably leaked on Saturday evening. Might be worth waiting for that before investing any more - if it a RedC poll and people wrongly compare it to the last TNS/MRBI one then that might be a good time to back Kenny as Taoiseach or FG / Lab / Green as government coalition. (Actually another area to bet on might be to look for discrepancies in the odds of those two events for any arb opportunities - try as I may I cannot think of a situation where Kenny is Taoiseach and FG / Lab / Green is not the winning coalition so for all intents and purposes I think it is the same bet.)
Personally I bet on Kenny at 3 on betfair around the time of Bertiegate and my only other betting so far is to look for long priced Green or Sinn Féin candidates that the bookies aren’t expecting to win but might sneak in if things go very well for these parties (I expect them to and their odds suggest they will gain lots of seats too).
111 Shameful is perhaps a little harsh, but I agree it is pretty bad.
Even in the Cotswolds I am sure there are loads of legitimate issues that only Labour candidate would raise and there must be many people who aren’t represented by the Tories and LibDems.
I think our electoral system has alot to answer for in this respect. In my town, Horsham gets roughly 10,000 votes at a GE and gets zero councillors. I am sure that the situation is reversed elsewhere in the UK and that some in my own party don’t care.
But I feel that for local elections the case for PR is overwhelming and then you might get a broader range of candidates, including some Labour ones.
Some (potentially) worrying news from Bishop’s Stortford.
Mrs Goldspink, a councillor for 16 years, said: “I am seriously worried I might not get back. There’s much more BNP support than we ever imagined.
Labour candidate John Battersby said: “We have mixed messages. Some have been taken in by their message but others have said they’ll vote for anybody but them to keep them out. The BNP do pose a threat unfortunately.”
Conservative branch chairman Graham McAndrew said: “We were surprised by the support for BNP in Thorley and St Michael’s Mead.”
http://www.hertsessexnews.co.uk/news/observer/2007/05/03/bnp%20set%20for%20election%20triumph.lpf
Sarko price tightening rapidly.
Now 1.15. Last matched 1.16.
110 John Wheatley, SeanT & Tyson — we don’t have debate because parties are scared of the media. Take schools, where everyone wants improvement. There is Brown’s policy of increased spending; there is Blair’s policy of giving up and relying on “the market” to improve schools. These cannot be debated for fear of headlines about Labour splits. Cameron probably has a policy too but won’t announce it.
To have debate between parties we need internal debate inside parties but this is ruled out by hysteria about so-called splits. Tyson @ 82 and kingbongo @ 111 lament the passing of political heavyweights but these days they’d be damned as heretics.
Any views on this from Iain Dale?
“This is strange. Andy McSmith has written a story in the Independent which appears to suggest that the Labour Party knows the result of postal voting in Scotland. Unless I have missed a change in electoral law postal votes are not counted until the proper count this evening. How could they possibly know these figures?
Labour’s organisers in Scotland think they have won a last-minute victory
over the Scottish Nationalists in a battle for control of the Scottish
Parliament. Results from postal voting in key constituencies have reinforced
opinion-poll evidence of a swing to Labour. In Ochil, a seat currently held by
the SNP, Labour has taken 457 out of 981 votes cast by post. The SNP has 322,
the Tories 127 and the Liberal Democrats 75. In another key marginal,
Strathkelvin and Bearsden, Labour’s David Whitton,a former aide to the man who
created the Scottish Parliament, the late Donald Dewar, has picked up 202 postal
votes out of about 700. The other main candidates have between 100 and 150. The
seat is held by an independent, Jean Turner.
This is deeply worrying.”
116. Why am I oddly proud that my blog has been blocked?
lol
If you are desperate for more ME, then you can read this on the playboy website, published today:
http://www.playboy.com/blog/
Then again, maybe they won’t let you read that either!
I did say people DO care about health and education, and they are right to do so, I just think bigger, more sensitive moral and political issues are ignored because the pols are scared what the people think. There are so many things we just don’t discuss in Britain because they have been ruled off-limits by the lefty thought police: not just immigration, but abortion, race-and-crime, the death penalty, and so forth.
Here’s an example. At least half the British people - probably more - would like to see the death penalty reinstituted. But no major party represents them on this. It’s not even discussed. Why? It’s bad for democracy. I am personally opposed to capital punishment, but I still think the people have a right to be heard. On this and many issues. And it’s these visceral issues that get people really passionate.
124 Are you going to stand?
125. On Newsnight last night they said Labour had done ’slightly better’ in postal votes than polls had suggested.
126. I was replying to 123.
PS I say this because, you have a point and the ONLY way you will get your way is if people like you stand up and try to get elected.
You really should try to be an MP, even it was for the Tories.
124. “We” don’t discuss immigration? The Sun’s always on about it, and the Tories made it one of their main issues at the 2005 election. How much more mainstream can you get? Fair enough about abortion and capital punishment, though I strongly doubt that a significant section of the electorate are pro-life.
Not sure what “race-and-crime” means.
126. Wonder why that could be…
128. I have actually considered entering politics, but I have the vague feeling my past might just get in the way. A self-confessed ex-heroin addict, one time rape trial defendant (acquitted), professional sex memoirist - with a criminal record?
It’s not an obvious CV for a politician. Then again I would liven things up.
Quick post from Devon as I have a quiet moment. I’d say turnout in the two swing wards I have spent time in today is probably up - the first couple of hours this morning were brisk although it has got much quieter since.
I still think overall turnout will be slightly down, maybe as low as mid 20’s percent wise.
Lib Dems, in my experience, tend to vote later in the day whereas the angry Tory pensioners are out of the box as soon as the polls are open.
I’ve never understood why people think the government will get a bigger than usual kicking. Blair has got a kicking any number of times and people are no longer bothering with it.
Given the lack of national political leadership, it’s no surprise that there should be the lowest turnout imaginable. Aside from the independence issue in Scotland, this has been a nothing of a campaign.
I’ve nailed my prediction colours to the mast (sort of) here - http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/2007/05/nailing-my-colours-to-mast.html - for your general interest.
113 I want to move there!
129. Take your point, but the fact is a large proportion of the British people would probably say, if asked: end all non-European immigration now. And curb the rest. No major party has a position anywhere near that. I’m not saying that I believe this - just that this widely-held view is unrepresented in the Commons.
As for race-and-crime, this subject is so touchy and unmentionable in the UK I hesitate to go near it, for fear of arrest.
In America, where I am now, I note that the debate is much more robust. For instance, in the USA they break down crime stats by ethnicity - something not allowed in the UK, I believe.
133. Also it doesn’t affect London where most of the media live
131 IMO There are two types of people in this world: Those that do and those that criticise.
I think you are in the first group. So you should go for it and if people don’t like it because of the above - well they don’t have to vote for you. What have you got to lose? You would liven things up. Do it!
132 Good to hear from you Marcus.
128- jonothan- politics is so sanitised and PC that it would destroy someone like seanT if he was forced to play the party line. The thought police pervades the right as much as the left- the silly Boris and Jamie spat last year typified this.
Similarly, I think it would be fate worse than death for me to be sat in Nulab trying to spin their next policy announcement, although intrinsically I am left wing.
In my job I take huge satisfaction in making a difference to the most impoverished families across Oxfordshire. I think I have far more impact in helping people than an MP ever could, I influence national policy, and shape services. I am a maverick though, but I know how things work, and can get things done.
There are others more right inclined who will equally take great satisfaction from wealth creation, and contributing to the economy. seanT contributes his intellectual property. Their talents are far better disposed in these fields than in politics.
Whereas once there might have been a place for people like me in the mainstream political fold, this is not the case now. I can acheive far more somewhere else.
131 reads like a fairly standard backbench MP’s CV to me
136. Re. immigration, I believe the formula in the 1970 Tory manifesto would command overwhelming public support -
‘we will ensure that there will be no further large scale permanent immigration.’
Just back for a break before heading to polling station.
Where i am in Scotland turnout is very,very good.
Will prob be mid to high 60’s here last time was 49%
And the feel at the polling station is good for labour.
I will hold my seat on council (stv sucks and you know in most 4 member seats who will win) Looking good for Labour holding Livingston aswell.
Call me naive or foolish, but despite being increasingly frustrated about politics I refuse to give up on it. If people with passion don’t stand then we have no right to compain if the anaemic careerists and the men in grey suits take over.
That said, huge respect for finding another way to make a difference. Obviously, there are more rotues to make a difference than bl**dy politics.
I just think that it is a truely a dire state of affairs if intellegent, articulate, passionate people cannot enter politics. I am not sure I can sit back and accept that.
Very slow in skipton,nearly voted tory nice lady standing , but just could not make the x.
voted LD no labour standing.
Peter M
turnout patchy my way. I expect my ward turnout to grow later but it is not good. Elsewhere in the district some wards are up and some down.
Hmm…
Can’t stop, got to go bother some more voters! (well the ones who have not voted)
145 Keep it up.
OK, I’m off for a hike in the Davis Mountains. Though they look more like hills from my hotel window, frankly.
I shall be back in time for all the massive excitement!
Good luck to all pb-ers standing, canvassing or even just voting.
Re 146, Jonathan, many thanks! I will!
Just changed shoes as my blisters have blisters!