Who’ll win the polling battle of Scotland?
May 3rd, 2007
Are punters right to put their money on YouGov?
For nearly six years a battle has reigned in the UK polling industry over the internet pollster, YouGov, which first appeared at the 2001 General election and has now become a serious force within the industry.
It’s methodologies have been very different and has attracted an enormous amount of criticism - usually from parties which have not shown up well in its surveys. In the run-up to the 2005 General Election I repeatedly expressed the view that I hoped that the final results would settle once and for all this debate.
Alas, it will be recalled, all the pollsters converged on the morning of May 5th 2005 and there was nothing to suggest that one type of polling was better or more accurate than another.
The argument over polling methods will all change after today - for in its final survey for Scotland YouGov is presenting a very different picture from the traditional firms who use the telephone
For this morning’s poll for the Telegraph is showing that Labour is in a much worse position in relation to the SNP than that being reported by the leading national phone survey firms ICM and Pollster. The difference compared with the non-British Polling Council members, MRUK and Scottish Opinion, is ever more stark.
The table above has been adapted from the excellent entry on the election in Wikipedia.
In the betting the YouGov survey has caused a big tightening of the SNP price which now (0400) stands at 0.19/1.
The Welsh Assembly most seats betting, which has attracted very little money, has seen Labour move to 0.02/1 - which is even tighter than I predicted on Monday.
Mike Smithson - author of “The Political Punter - how to make money betting on politics”
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While I was feeling in a grumpy mood earlier today, I was thinking to myself “Which idiot came up with the stupid idea of calling it the “first” vote and the “second” vote, instead of the “constituency” vote and the “list” vote?”.
My understanding is that this time, the two votes are both on the same ballot paper, but are they still in the “wrong” order (with the constituency section first, and the list section second)?
I usually tell myself that of course people understand the system, and of course people are not stupid enough to think that the regional vote is a “second preference” (as is sometimes reported). But I fear that I may be subconsciously trying to shelter myself from the reality of so many people being stupid.
How much information does the average elector in Scotland (or Wales) get about the working of the system, and is there any real evidence that significant numbers of people do actually vote incorrectly through a misunderstanding of the system? I am sort-of hoping that it is an urban myth and not really a problem.
And why are the Lib Dems against having a referendum on independence? As a unionist, I would be happy (if I were an MSP) to let the SNP have one. The result would be “No” (and would thus kill off the idea as an issue for the next XXX years (thereby letting the SNP get on with governing Scotland day-to-day on bread-and-butter issues)), but even if it were “Yes” then I would accept it as the will of the Scottish people.
A ridiculously early morning for me - delivery of a “Good morning leaflet” followed by the first two hours telling. Here in Bedford we have a mayoral election going with an electorate in excess of 100,000. The Lib Dems are fighting this like a parliamentary by-election in a bid to oust the multi-millionaire retired media tycoon who won on a independent ticket last time. The party came second in that election which has proved a good platform for today’s vote.
Yes I am partisan but all the mainstream parties here will be cheering if the incumbent goes down.
Alas I’ve not been able to find a bookie who will take a bet on the result.
3 - ditto Mike - good luck!!
3. Although this is a betting website, I’ve necver actually done a bet on anything. The nearest I got to it was in my very first election campaign in 1994. I went to a betting shop and wanted to bet that I would get more votes in the local election than the People’s Choice party. (This was before I joined the OMRLP and I was standing for the Chocolate Fudge Cake Party). They said they weren’t doing bets on the local election, so I didn’t pursue it any further.
(The result was CFCP 175, PCh 108)
Morning everyone - we’re a weird species, aren’t we? 7 am telling coming up, then breakfast, then 13 hours of knock-up! What was normal life like, I forget?
1 - isn’t the situation possibly made worse by the STV elections on the same day?
3, 6, Yes, also off down for the bleary-eye telling slot. Usually I’m also the first to cast a vote at exactly 7.01 am - I may then call off the election ;).
Best of luck (within reason) to all pbc candidates.
3, 6, Yes, also off down for the bleary-eye telling slot. Usually I’m also the first to cast a vote at exactly 7.01 am - I may then call off the election ;).
Best of luck (within reason) to all pbc candidates.
3- Not a criticism honestly but a question. Is it legal to vote on an election you are standing in?
10 - Absolutely. And you can vote for yourself a couple more times (if you are also a proxy). Nice feeling.
As far as the Scottish polls go, YouGov have an excellent record in all forms of election and their result on this can’t be dismissed lightly. That said, Scotland’s population is less than a tenth that of the UK, and polling is about changes at the edges, so there’s always the possibility that the problems in using a pre-determined set of people (which haven’t thrown the results out for elections in a larger area) are multiplied by enough to significantly affect a lead / deficit which is still in the low single figures.
Hope that made sense. Brain still not fully in gear after being up until 2am last night printing out marking off sheets!
p.s. Good luck for those involved today.
Morning. Anybody got a link to a definitive timetable for tonights action?
Good luck to all PBers standing for election - especially Benedict who I suppose might possibly blog about his experience.
2. JohnLooney - “even if it were “Yes” then I would accept it as the will of the Scottish people.”
Ahhh… but you see, the thing is, you are an upstanding democrat John, and clearly a jolly decent liberally-minded individual.
But… hrmmm… on the other hand… the Laberal Dimocrats are a bunch of #=!¤ ?¤* %!&?***%¤# t*ss*rs.
13. 2jamie
Here you go:
Scottish Parliament and National Assembly for Wales estimated declaration times:
http://www.election.press.net/ScotWalesDecs.html
English and Scottish local authorities:
http://www.election.press.net/CouncilDecs.html
15. This really is pathetic. As an (all to aware he was an) Englishman previously living in Scotland I’m pleased I’m not there anymore when I hear that kind of drivel.
17. But thanks for the link
Sorry — but I really disliked the effect the nationalist movement has in Scotland –
11 - sorry I made a typo when I posed my quesion in 10. Wat I meant to ask is whether it is legal to BET, not vote, on an election you are standing in.
Anyone know?
What wonderful special days polling days are. Early morning vote, work all day, bleary eyed count til the early hours. How I love them.
Good luck to all PBC candidates today - even the Labour ones!
19 - yep
Well, as a paper candidate, it is a normal day at work for me today. The count is tomorrow, which is a shame, as I will be at work too.
The ward where I am standing is a Tory / Labour battleground. So it will still be interesting.
Looking forward already to my graveyard shift of telling (in a rather more key ward) followed by a Chinese takeaway.
Hello Everyone.
I was the first to vote in my ward this morning (Swansea West - Uplands Ward). There were five of us waiting outside and we were ushered in at 7am. They were still closing the ballot boxes with those damn plastic tags! Tut tut, I thought - should be ready at 7am on the dot!
Still, I had my two ballot papers and voted for Andrew Davies and then Labour on the regional list. My papers were the first to go in the box! How sad am I? But I really enjoyed it!
1 - The local news yesterday evening was all about - “How to Vote”, so there’s no excuse.
And as for this ‘Plaid Surge’ - where? Plaid coming first? Not in my lifetime!
18.
Jamie, some of us really dislike the effect that the British nationalist (otherwise known as ‘Unionist’) movement has on England and Scotland.
Remember, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru and Mebyon Kernow are not the only ‘nationalist’ political parties in Great Britain. Just have a look at how Gordon Brown has used crude British nationalism to further his own career. “Last refuge of the scoundrel” and all that…
Why not ask these ‘nationalists’ what they think?
http://www.thecep.org.uk/
16.
First parliamentary results due:
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 01:00
Midlothian 01:30
Shetland 01:30
Angus 02:00
Clydebank & Milngavie 02:00
Dumbarton 02:00
Moray 02:00
Strathkelvin & Bearsden 02:00
Western Isles 02:00
First assembly results due:
Llanelli 01:00
Montgomeryshire 01:00
Caerphilly 01:30
Islwyn 01:30
English council results are meant to start coming in at midnight. The first Scottish council to declare is meant to be Moray Council at about midnight (I doubt that!)
Ahhh not long to wait now
Best wishes to everyone involved today. I haven’t been as involved this year, but will be knocking up after work. Our polling station is in a pub - I think they’ll do fairly good business today somehow. A majority of 2 - can we hold it?
22 - when I say key ward, I mean the one where Rik is the Conservative candidate!
Anyone know how Jack W is? It won’t seem a proper election day without him posting.
25. I am predicting that all 4 of those Welsh seats will be delayed by recounts!!!
When I voted today in Leeds the polling station officals did not place an official mark with a stamp on the paper in my presence. I grumbled and they said “The ballot papers are all watermarked nowadays so we don’t need to do it.” The elections office in the city confirmed this.
Its a shame theres nothing really interesting to bet on today
Coming back on topic. I really do not know what to think.
After being a very big cynic back in the early days of YouGov (I was trained in ‘traditional’ quantitative market research methodologies), I have to admit that I have been won over.
Although it may at face value look reasonable to say that a self-selecting panel of respondents will be more accurate in measuring the voting intentions of a population of 59 million (GB) versus the views of a population of 5 million (Scotland); in reality, I cannot see why there should be a significant statistical problem there. It misunderstands the importance of sample size in opinion polling - it is not really as critical as is generally assumed (weighting techniques are far more critical; as are unbiased questionnaires).
One clear advantage of YouGov over ICM and Populus is that because of the design of their questionnaire, YouGov are not underestimating support for the Greens, SSP, Solidarity, Independents etc etc etc. These myriad minor parties are going to have an important effect on the list results (even though they do not themselves win much) - and it could really hit the Lib Dems very hard indeed, which YouGov are picking up.
For some reason, Lib Dem voters seem to have a short attention span, and are prone to wandering off to the Greens and other oddball candidates.
28: Instead of the French presidential prediction thread, the Rik W prediction thread was an opportunity missed. I wonder what the great man himself would have gone for. Most Liberal Democrat voters committing hari-kari on their way to the pollng booth so they don’t have to vote against him, the Lib Dem candidate defecting to the Tories halfway through the day, and a 25% increase in the turnout from the doorstep community (well we’ve heard how well things are going on the doorsteps)
Sorry Rik
Out of the 41 people who have already voted in Mike Smithson’s wee poll at the time of writing, only one has voted for “Scottish Opinion”. But, I have news for those of you unfamiliar with Scottish opinion polling: Scottish Opinion were the most consistently accurate pollster at the 2005 UK general election in Scotland!!
YouGov are miles ahead on 59%.
The punters certainly seem to have opted for YouGov, but even on their numbers it is by no means guaranteed that SNP will emerge as largest Party.
Gonna be an interesting 24 hours!
10. and 19. Yes, as far as I am aware. David Sutch used to make various bets about his results in order to win back his deposit money, I believe. And I was wanting to bet on my getting more votes than someone else, so there wouldn’t be a conflict of interest. And in any case, if I went into a betting shop and made a bet, wouldn’t they give me the necessary slip without needing to check/know my identity?
O/T, but Blair has reportedly said that he plans to quit as MP for Sedgefield at the same time as leaving the office of Prime Minister. The announcement will apparently be made next Friday - that’s the 11th.
Up here, we’re betting on a by-election to coincide with the Labour Party Conference.
38 - That’s seriously harsh on Gordon, lumbered with potentially losing a by-election to the Libs within weeks of taking office. That’s just cruel.
On Thread - Good luck to all PBers standing today.
37. Thanks. I had always thought it was similar to the football situation where it is against the rules to bet on a match you are involved in.
Thinking about it I suppose there is little you could do to ‘throw’ the game in an election unless you wanted to do yourself permanent political damage.
cheers
Tricks
Jody Dunn for Sedgefield!
37 LOL JL!
I wouldn’t rely on the not being recognised, JL, as Graham Bradley once found to his cost. But as far as I know it is perfectly legal to bet on an election in which you are a candidate. I guess the likelihood of skulduggery is pretty remote.
36. peter the punter
Here are the seat predictions for today’s final YouGov/Telegraph poll, using the Weber Shandwick/Scotland on Sunday seats calculator:
1. SNP 46 seats (+19)
2. Lab 39 seats (-11)
3. LD 17 seats (n/c)
4. Con 15 seats (-3)
5. Grn 11 seats (+4)
6. Ind 1 seat (-3)
(SSP 0 seats; -6)
A Unionist coalition could still lock out the SNP if they like:
Lab+LD+Con = 71 (you need 65 to form a majority)
I dare them
Since denied by blairs agent apparently
6. On election days I often tend to sleep a lot in the daytime and then have excitement all through the night. In 2005 we (”we” = Croydon electiony people) were all up until 7am due to multiple recounts, and then had to catch 2 or 3 hours sleep before going to the funeral at 12 noon on Friday of the former leader of the Council.
7. No; it’s the other way round. Everybody will be filling in their list of preferences with great joy and rapture in the STV election, and it will then be made worse by the awkward AMS elections.
8. Except for the Labour desperadoes, the Conservative bourgeois imperialists, the Illiberal Undemocrats, the separatists of the SNP and SSP, the British Nazi Party, the little-Englander-Democrats, and the Illiberal Party. But yes, good luck to all the others.
15. Oh yes. How clumsitanical of me not to think of that.
31. I am glad they got rid of the “official mark” thing. In the 2005 general election, the main difference which came out of each recount was the discovery of more and more ballot papers which had to be rejected for want of the official mark (there were 90 such papers in the end). The official result was therefore less accurate than how people had actually intended to vote. The number of papers which had been wrongly sorted into the wrong piles was very minor in comparison.
33. What is the design of the questionnaire vis-a-vis the small parties?
34. [pedantic] hara-kiri [/pedantic]
There need not be any by-election for Sedgefield. TB will just stay on until the next GE.
43 Thanks Stuart, that’s very helpful. Note however that I only said those percentages don’t necessarily result in SNP with most seats and of course you are looking at the most favorable pollster from the SNP’s viewpoint.
Personally I think the SNP will do it but it’s likely to be close and I’m glad I have an all-green betting position.
38. Drew SW London
For background to a Sedgefield by election:
Result GE 2005 Sedgefield:
1. Lab (Blair) 24,421 (58.9%)
2. Con 5,972 (14.4%)
3. LD 4,935 (11.9%)
4. Ind (Reg Keys) 4,252 (10.3%)
5. UKIP 646 (1.6%)
6. National Front 253 (0.6%)
7. Veritas 218 (0.5%)
8. Ind 205 (0.5%)
+ 7 other minor candidates
Scottish Poll of Polls (adjusted for error 2003) with forecast
Constituency:
Con: 16% (-1%) winning 3 seats (n/c)
Lab: 28% (-7%) winning 28 seats (-20)
LDm: 20% (+4%) winning 14 seats (+1)
SNP: 35% (+11%) winning 28 seats (+19)
Oth: 1% (-7%) winning 0 seats (-2)
Regional:
Con: 16% (+1%) winning 17 seats (+3)
Lab: 24% (-5%) winning 10 seats (+6)
LDm: 13% (+1%) winning 6 seats (+1)
SNP: 31% (+10%) winning 10 seats (-6)
Grn: 7% (n/c) winning 9 seats (+2)
Oth: 9% (-8%) winning 4 seats (-6)
Overall:
Con: 20 (+3)
Lab: 38 (-12)
LDm: 20 (+2)
SNP: 38 (+13)
Grn: 9 (+2)
Oth: 4 (-8)
Coalitions: Lab + Lib Dem = 58 + Green = 67
Christ, for how much longer do we have to put up with Stuart “SNP bore” Dickson posting here?
He’s been ranting and raving like an excited puppy almost every day for the last 3 years.
Can’t you change the record?
It’s BORING.
45. JohnLoony
Mike Smithson covered YouGov’s questionnaire design last week. Here you go:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/04/27/could-the-greens-provide-the-big-shock-on-thursday/
50. Casino Royale
It really is terribly easy. I will bore you to death until Scotland regains her rightful place in the community of nations. So you better start praying for an overall SNP majority, and a prompt, successful independence referendum.
It is just one of the many costs of the Union you know
(By the way, if you think that I am boring, I ought to invite a bunch of my colleagues over here. You would just love it… )
52. Are they the people who fill up the online comments sections of the Scots newspapers with hysterical anti-English rants and bizarre conspiracy theories?
50 - I am not an SNP supporter (being English) but why are Stuart’s postings any more boring than anyone elses with a party slant.At least his tend to be informed and informative rather than simply ranting against one side or the other.
Long may he contiue to post even if I do disagree with him.
So Stuart what do reckon the result will be tonight?
I think
First vote
SNP 34
Labour 31%
LD 16%
Con 14%
(Hardly an orginally prediction I know)
with all the parties dropping a point on the second vote and the Greens getting around 7% to hold there number of seats. (I know alot of folk who are giving them their list vote but voting for the others on the first vote)
Are there odds for the western isles? A friend of mine is standing there and I was going to stick a few quid on him.
Have to say the whole campagin has been a bit underwelming. I haven’t had one person at my door and hardly any leaflets. Maybe it’s because it’s a safe LD seat but there are barely any posters up either.
53. Jock a loon
My my! Victoria Street are busy this morning. Touch tetchy are we?
54. Richard Tyndall
Thanks. How boring the world would be if we all agreed with each other. Variety is the spice of life; and Scotland has a great deal of spice to add to the rich variety of nations. Stop the world, we want to get on!
41. Kevin Maguire wrote in the New Statesman a while back saying that Jody Dunn had told him she was no longer a member of the Lib Dems.
55. GH - “Maybe it’s because it’s a safe LD seat but there are barely any posters up either.”
I have heard about this phenomenon in Lib Dem-held constituencies. I think that they have made a grave strategic error in concentrating their resources (very limited; eg. very few members) on targetting potential gains. (And what on earth were they doing wasting their time on Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber?)
They should have been concentrating on holding what they have. Witness Nicol Stephen’s panic visit to Gordon yesterday.
1 - I went to vote here in Edinburgh this morning, and the first vote on the left-hand side of the ballot paper was the list vote (if I remember it correctly among all the excitement :).
I agree about the stupidity of calling it the first and second vote, but at least they do have it the right way round, unlike in Germany where the more or less meaningless constituency vote is “first”.
I fear there will be a lot of confusion about the different voting systems. It won’t be helped by the parties giving their lists ridiculously long names like “Alex Salmond For First Minister - Scottish Nationalist Party”. I do hope though that the council elections give people a taste for preference voting. I enjoyed it so much that I ranked all ten candidates, but then I’m probably a bit weird.
One thing I was rather concerned about was the ballot boxes. Instead of folding the ballot paper and just stuffing it in the top, you had to slide it unfolded into a slit on the side of the box. Presumably that’s meant to speed up machine counting, but it also means that all the ballot papers are in order of people voting. The election officials also note down every voter as they come in, so theoretically they could find out exactly how everyone voted! Can’t be long until the secrecy of the ballot will be abolished altogether, so that people can start buying and extorting votes again.
’so that people can start buying and extorting votes again. ‘
Like in Leeds you mean?
I’d also like to put in a word for Stuart-the sites very own Braveheart. James Cosmo in full regalia! Anyway I find his posts interesting as I do most of the Scottish contributors.
58- It’s Ming the Merciless territory here but the only real evidence of posters is for the Torys (alot the local farmers have big signs in their fields, surprise surprise farmers voting conservative) Apart from that very little. I do think the LD’s take seats for this for granted. They will win here but it would be nice to feel a little love!Ha Ha
Labour and SNP are a distant 3rd and 4th but you’d think they’d still want to be out and about and have a presence to try and get list votes.
We took the children along to the polling station this morning as a special treat(after all I’ve had them out delivering leaflets and they’ve had to put up with the sunlight being blocked from the windows by our posters)
Oh do do so enjoy the feeling of putting that cross in the box. My son ran from where I was voting to where my wife was and shouted “Oh Mum, you’ve voted for little bird like Dad did!”
So much for a secret ballot.
Hopefully there will be a few others voting for the little bird where I’m standing!
Prepare for the Labour meltdown in Kent and expect some surprise Lib Dem Gains!
55. GH - Election Prediction
Oh lordy. I was not really wanting to do this, cos I’ll probably be a million miles off
I am a vain b*gger you see…
But as you insist, here goes.
My philosophy is based upon the very simple, and I would have thought fairly common-sense, principle that Labour cannot possibly poll higher than they did in May 2003 (those polls are just nuts). Far, far too many appalling things have beset them since then. So, here goes:
Constituency votes:
1. SNP 34% (+10%)
2. Lab 30% (-5%)
3. Con 17% (n/c)
4. LD 16% (+1%)
Regional list votes:
1. SNP 32% (+11%)
2. Lab 25% (-4%)
3. Con 15% (-1%)
4. LD 11% (-1%)
5. Grn 7% (n/c)
Therefore, seat distribution:
1. SNP 44 seats (+17)
2. Lab 40 seats (-10)
3. Con 18 seats (n/c)
4. LD 17 seats (n/c)
5. Grn 8 seats (+1)
oth 2 seats (-8)
“We took the children along to the polling station this morning as a special treat(after all I’ve had them out delivering leaflets”
Mike, must admit that we always tried to take the kids with us when they were a wee bit younger in the hope that it would make them more interested in voting when the time came. Enjoy the help leafleting, mine are now passed the stage where it is fun and a novelty to help!
62 - “alot the local farmers have big signs in their fields”
That was one thing I found bizarre about Stirling Council banning posters on lamposts. There are hardly any Labour posters at all in Stirling but there is an excellent crop of Bob Dalrymple posters - what difference it makes I’ve no idea.
Just voted myself - although obviously I won’t say for who! - but now back out onto the campaign trail.
“you’ve voted for little bird ”
Sarah Teather??
63 & 65 - If going to the polling station is a treat I shudder to think what you do to them if they’ve been bad!!!!!!
64 - interesting seat distribution, considering you can still get 9/4 on the Conservatives to beat the Lib Dems (Hills).
(May I also join with others in welcoming your presence, Stuart - it may occasionally be a bit one-eyed but it’s a useful perspective nonetheless!)
6. Nick, no-one will be telling or knocking-up in my ward - roll on STV…
64 Don’t think you’ll be too far off the mark with those.
What on earth happens after that is anyones guess. Minority admimistration with vote by vote coalitions??? Could be interesting.
O/T New Blair Watch market with Paddy Power ;o)
What will Tony Blair do next?
Applies to what Tony Blair does first when he gives up the Leadership.
Motivational speaking tour of America 2.20
Go on tour with Ugly Rumours 34.00
Takeover from Bernie Ecclestone as Head of F1 41.00
Have a best selling book 2.50
Be Gordon Brown’s Deputy PM 34.00
Launch a clothing range 81.00
Attend the 2008 Ryder Cup with Bill Clinton 9.00
Replace Peter Snow as presenter of the Swingometer 34.00
Have a tattoo of the American flag 101.00
Launch a PR Agency with Alistair Campbell 11.00
Become president of the TUC 41.00
Launch a tour operator selling hols to Iraq 101.00
American chat show host 17.00
Appear on I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out Of Here! 41.00
Next President of America 501.00
Morning all! I wish you a pleasant day of voting and last minute betting…
yesterday night was a pleasant evening with friends watching the French presidential debate. One thing is for certain, Royal has not won the debate (no serious commentator pretended so this morning) and that was her last possibility of winning…
re 43
My calculator gives similar results
SNP 45
Lab 40
LD 17
C 15
Gr 10
SSP 1
Other 1
72.
Admits that invasion of Iraq was possibly a mistake 1000/1
Releases cover version of My Way 50/1
Stuart Dickson - Keep posting! The punters here appreciate you, if nobody else does.
69 Aaron - Agree with you about the Tory/Libdem odds (and Stuart Dickson!) but I notice Hills have just pulled down all their Scottish markets. Something happening?
Any idea when exit polls are due to be realeased?
75 “Stuart Dickson - Keep posting”
Agree with that. The more regional/local “correspondents” this site has the better.
As to voting this lazy voter (in Edinburgh) is waiting for the haze to lift so he can wander along in the sunshine!
77. Is it not straight after the polls close?
74. That 1000/1, how do we define saying it was a mistake?
76. Don’t they always pull them down on polling day?
I just popped by to say it is going well where I am! (Ashenground)
Somebody just laid a lot of SNP on Betfair - 1.9 was matched - now to back price is 1.53, to lay price 1.93.
Defo worth backing at > 1.5 I think.
72. Caveman. My favourite novelty bet was when Prince Andrew and Fergie were expecting their first child. Hills, I think, were betting on the name of the child. One of the outsiders was “Greavesie” at 500/1 and someone placed a bet. Needless to say they didn’t collect.
83. For novelty bets you can’t beat the 1000-1 offered the other year on Father Dougal McGuire to be the new Pope.
68. Max, they had the perfect revenge in our house and even now I still shudder at the sound of the teletubbies.
Hunky Dunky trying to give away blue ballons up North.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/05/03/wholl-win-the-polling-battle-of-scotland/
77. Will be surprised if there is an exit poll. They are very expensive and only benefit is giving prediction an hour or so before first results come in.
Am in Woking where interesting lib dem - tory fight in progress. Tories defending 5 lib Dems 4 labour 3. Lib Dems need 1 gain for overall control. Shd get at least 1 gain from labour but also need to avoid any loss to tories. Labour cd and probably will lose all 3 which would lose their last representation on the council.
83 StJohn - Log on to Paddy Power and you can back Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island) for next Pope. Odds are 1000/1.
85.Oops wrong link.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a06179c2-f927-11db-a940-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=34c8a8a6-2f7b-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8,_i_rssPage=34c8a8a6-2f7b-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8.html
86.Not even for the Welsh assembly or Holyrood?
80 I don’t think so, Yokel. Odds were up earlier, well after polling started.
84 Same thought as you, Ian! It’s still there though.
BBC Wales are starting their election programme at 10:35pm I believe, so possibly no immediate Exit POll as we all like to expect.
80 Hi, Yokel, OT, I’m looking at a couple of possible punts on the Irish GE and I’d be interested in a quick update on hows its going there as I know nothing about the situation except what I read on Wikipedia and haven’t time to pick up on the local press. Any views on the prospects for Fine Gael in particular are much appreciated.
Any possible punts will of course be shared here!
76 - maybe they (Hills) have just realised that the election is actually today?
84 / 87 - In real life Fr Dougal’s (ie Ardal O’Hanlon’s) dad is the speaker (Cathaoirleach) of the Dáil..
88 - You had me excited there for a moment Chris - I thought Mr Duncan might be visiting the ‘true north’ not somewhere 200 miles south!
I’m in the Conservative heartlands of Glasgow today but will return north this evening to cast my vote for Jamie Johnston in Inverness, followed by a few pints and attending the count. We’re looking for an improvement on 2005 (please God!) but I think Fergus Ewing will probably pull this one off. I think the Lib Dems expect to come within three figures of him but not sure about that.
I’ll also add my voice of support for Stuart - he’s not a bad type for an SNP supporter!
I’m not convinced about YouGov’s polls (and less so about their Scottish ones), because of the panel effect.
They can just about get away with it when they have 50,000+ panelists and interview 4% (2,000) each month, but when they’ve done three polls in a month with a panel of no more than 5,000, then the results are very likely to be unreliable.
For what it’s worth I’m not a million miles from Stuart - except I think Lab and SNP will be closer in the constituency vote. I think the Lib Dems will also sneak ahead of the Tories in the constituencies too. Because of the nature of the mixed system and the bias towards fptp seats, Labour may just sneak the largest number of seats, so there’s some value in backing them for the largest party.
96.”I’m in the Conservative heartlands of Glasgow today ”
you can have a chance to meet Rosie Kane’s magaphone!
I find Stuart Dickson’s posts invaluable and far more important than the bitter rantings of an anonymous sockpuppet
Please stop giving me compliments (kind of) everybody. Humility and gratitude is not my forté.
Next, you will be wanting the Scots to say “thank you” for all that Barnett cash. Good luck with that!
Will regional MSPs do their “winning speech” after the declaration too?
Test- what is a sockpuppet?
101 - I’d have voted SNP if they’d been standing in my ward.
So just to have fun…
how seats will the Greens get?
Will Tommy be re-elected?
And Andy Kerr and Wendy Alexander?
Will Salmond win Gordon?
which will be the colour of Annabel Goldie’s dress at the count?
Who will win Falkirk West?
There’s no prize though
96. “We’re looking for an improvement on 2005 (please God!)”
StephenB, I share that feeling. Also agree with your view about Fergus Ewing’s prospects.
Some photo’s that the politicians might not be putting in the campaign album.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/6608617.stm
I voted Conservative for the first time, as 9th choice in the council elections.
100 Stuart - I don’t think it was so much a compliment to you as an expression of distaste for an unpleasant and unwarranted personal attack. No need to do humility. It’s an overrated virtue.
Do like your posts though, and not just those relevant to betting.
106. how did other pb.comers rank the council candidates?
Max, Chris, did you rank SSP or Solidarity higher (if they are standing in your wards)?
In case Salmond doesn’t win his constituency, is he actually certain to get in via the list? And could he then be First Minister after being rejected by his constituents?
99. Is ‘test’ the same person as our quondam correspondent ‘Commentator’ ?
Andrea if Tommy S. gets re-elected it will surely prove the old adage that theres no such thing as bad publicity.
Oh and yes I do see him geting back in, unlike Alex S. who will have to rely on the list for his 1st minister post.
72. So Blair is 40/1 to go on I’m a celebrity…….
You can be sure that they’ll be offering him big ££££££££ to do it but I expect he’ll go after the $ first.
It does amaze me that he retains popularity over there. America is so polarised now and the left see him as a Bushite warmonger whilst the right don’t bother to take him seriously.
105 - that’s a particularly vile picture of Alex Salmond!
107-peter the punter- as always the gentleman of pbCOM- anyhow back to France- at present I am about 40% down on my sego bet if I lay now- do you think it is worth laying, or holding on for a bit of tightening.
I hate losing money, and Sego would be my first significant political loss, probably to be swiftly followed by Reid if he bows out.
The trick is knowing when to get out- I could have made small profits by getting out earlier on both, but have been too greedy I fear.
108. Neither standing in my area, but I would have to say that Solidarity would win by a perma tan.
102- a sockpuppet is somene who posts on a group under a false or anonymous identity making claims about or atacking an opponent or competitor. You see it a fair bit on groups concerned with trade or commercial matters
104/
6
Yes
both but only Just
Yes
Blue with a tartan scarf
Labour
Does anyone know how successful candidates’ votes above the STV quota are redistributed in the Scottish council elections? Do they randomly select ballot papers or do they do it properly using fractional votes?
Where are the Labour backers today? On Betfair I’ve got a £250 lay available on Labour in Wales at 1.04 and there don’t seem to be any takers?
If these polls are right, and even if they are wrong by a couple of percent, we’re going to be in an odd situation, coalition-wise, in Scotland. LD+Lab won’t be enough. SNP+LD won’t be enough. No one will want to go into coalition with the Tories. Surely a three party coalition involving the Greens is going to be tricky to negotiate…
Leaving only SNP+Lab… or a new election!
Now that would be exciting…
re 109. Well the SNP won’t be in a position to provide the first minister if Alex Salmond doesn’t win a list seat.
110- scallywag- my own feeling. We really need a scenario of seanT verbally assaulting snowflake5, and if Test valiantly takes her side, we have our man.
As to me I am keeping to my personal self imposed rule only to post at significant election times-which fortunately has given me license to post for two weeks. So after next Monday you can breathe a sigh of relief again. I may want to gloat on the “cash for honours” mind depending how it pans out.
100 well your posts do achieve something Stuart - if this Englsih tory lived in Scotland he might be persuaded to give the SNP one of the many many votes Scots seem to have, particularly if it would damage the LD cause.
Talking to people in work today. Lots more seem to have voted than last time. I’m getting sxom of the old “I won’t vote Lab now, but I’ll vote LD/Plaid/Green”. Lab vote seems to be OK though. Still confident for Labour in Swansea West.
121 - Under this stupid hybrid system, if the SNP won more constituency seats in the region than their list vote entitles them too, no-one from their list would get through. What are the SNP’s chances in the constituencies up there?
112. Another New PP Blair Market! Destination Unknown
Where will Tony Blair go first on Holiday after being PM?
Must be an official family holiday lasting at least 7 days.
Barbados 15 - 8
UK 8 - 1
Ireland 25 - 1
Egypt 11 - 4
France 10 - 1
Iraq 150 - 1
Italy 3 - 1
Spain 12 - 1
Iran 500 - 1
America 6 - 1
Stuart: You are confusing me with someone who cares about Scotland.
You a ranting, raving Scots nationalist who never talks about *anything* else. You can also be quite insulting to English people - not just here, but on Iain Dale, UK polling report etc. etc.
52. I agree with you entirely. I’m tired of the bile that pours out of the mouths of Scots nationalists. They bore us here, they bore us there, they bore us bleeding everywhere.
At least the other politically partisan people on here talk about other subjects too. AND they’re funny. You don’t and, guess what, you’re not.
And as for all these people ganging up to “defend” Stuart - personal attack, “keep posting”, “I love you Stuart” blah blah blah.. you are as sad as he is if you find his rantings entertaining.
Test/Peter the Punter/roger etc. etc. etc. Don’t get all “high-horsey” with me - doesn’t bother me - you know he’s tedious as much as I do.
Sorry if it’s “personal”, but it needs to be said.
118
There is a downloadable pdf doc here that details STV
http://www.votescotland.com/stv/39.html
125. Nimble. In Scotland NE, SNP already hold Banff & Buchan, Aberdeen North, Angus and Dundee East.
They should gain Dundee West (4.3% Lab majority) and Abderdeen Central (5.9% Lab majority).
If today yougov is right, on uniform swing Gordon would be close, but even if he loses, he would get in with the last list seat
84. 87. I’ve had £10 each way. (Place money down to Bishop of Galway).
126. How about ‘where will Blair seek asylum when the various summonses for his court appearences materialise’
Afghanistan 1000-1
Pakistan 1000-1
Russia 100-1
Iraq 100-1
Cuba 50-1
White House broom cupboard 4-5
128 - Thanks for the link, HenryH. Glad to see that surplus vote transfer is done the way it should be done, using fractional votes. That does make it somewhat mathematically challenging, but I guess that’s why machine counting is being used.
116- Richard- thanks. An interesting insight into the world of business.
119-Mike Smithson- how much would you win from that bet?
129 Thanks Andrea, so could it get close for Salmond if some other constituency candidate sneaks in or they don’t quite get the list vote they expect?
Yep Casino Royal definately sounds like a sockpuppet
127 No Casino, I don’t think he’s tedious.
He’s been posting here for a long time, under his own name, and has a distinctive and consistent point of view. I respect that.
127-casino royale- I must say you put up an excellent defense of your position; almost, but not quite as acerbic, and cutting as seanT in full flow.
It’s strange - an election and all the excitement on Pb.com, yet I don’t have a chance to participate by actually voting. Anecdoteally, people in the office are talking about France and its election much more than Scotland, Wales or local councils.
*Sigh*
Yes, guys, I *am* anonymous. But I’m not a sockpuppet. Not SeanT or anyone else regular here!
Although I can’t prove it, I’ve been reading ‘politicalbetting’ for a long-time, and thoroughly enjoy it, but Dickson clogs up threads day after day after day posting the same old stuff - and I happen to find the way he expresses himself rather patronising and he can be quite nasty - and rude - to those of a Unionist persuasion.
There is room for every opinion here, naturally, but he should show more respect to those he disagrees with.
139 I wonder how many other “lurkers” there are here. Have you bought Mike’s book yet? It’s quite good.
93. Neil is probably a better source on this than I am.
What I would say is that Fine Gael seem to be doing relatively well. The question, obviously is how well. At this time I think the 45-49 seat range well within reach. Having said that, I am smelling really major problems for Fianna Fail and I am beginning to think there’s a live possibility of a serious thumping at the polls in which case over 50 for FG might be possible though that would take some going.
The governing FF party last time did disproportionately well due to a sound playing of their vote management and got proportionately more seats than their bare vote figures. This time however, they’ll not be that fortunate.
Back to Mike’s story. I don’t agree that YouGov and ICM present a ‘very’ different picture. Indeed it’s a rather similar picture! With one exception (LD 2nd vote) their estimates for each party on both votes are within 2-3 points. That’s well within acceptable error.
The fact that it matters a lot for the Parliament and for betting whether SNP is 5/6 or 1/2 ahead, should not lead us to make erroneous conclusions about the pollsters. They have not been commissioned to produce a level of precision which will distinguish these two distinct but close results.
134. Nimble.
Yougov poll regional figures for Scotland overall compared to 2003 have the following changes:
SNP +11.1
Lab -2.3
LD -1.8
Con -2.5
Green +2.1
Scotland North East regional figures in 2003 were:
SNP 27.3
Lab 20.2
LD 18.8
Con 17.4
Green 5.2
Applying those changes you would get
SNP 38.4
Lab 17.9
LD 17
Con 14.9
Green 7.3
FPTP seats if LD hold Gordon and SNP gains the 2 Lab marginals
SNP: 6
LD 3
Con 0
Lab 0
So SNP: 38.4%/7=5.48
Lab: 17.9%/1= 17.9
Con 14.9/1=14.9
LD 17/4=4.25
In the first stage, Labour’s Richard Baker is re-elected.
New Lab score is 8.95
Second stage: Con’s Alex Johnstone is elected.
New Con score=7.45
Third stage: Labour’s Marlyn Glen is re-elected
New Lab value is 5.9
4th stage: Con’s Nanette Milne is re-elected
New Con score is 4.966666
5th stage: Green’s Shiona Baird is re-elected
6th stage is Labour with 5.9
and then 7th stage would be Salmond with 5.4 (ahead if Con’s third seat with 4.966666
‘he should show more respect to those he disagrees with.’
Hmmm well yes, but if that is to be the yardstick a great many other posters should be shown the door as well.
re 119 Mike, you presumably don’t think 1.04 represents the true odds…nor do some of us still tempted to back Lab in Wales!
First post French debate poll by Opinionway. Sarko wins hands down. 53% judge him more convincing than Sego at 31%. That includes 51% of Bayrou supporters compared to 25% for sego. On growth, standard of living, unemployment, tax, pensions and the 35 hour issue Sarko was well ahead. They tied on helath. Sego won on the environment, the handicapped, inequality and education. Before the debate 56% thought Sarko would make a good President; afterwards it was 59%. Sego got 18% before the debate and afterwards just 14%. As the person most likely to bring in necessary reforms 56% for Sarko and 59% after the debate. Sego’s figures were 23 and 22 respectively. Among Bayrou’s voters the figures were 51 versus 26 for Sego after the debate. Both improved their competence rating after the debate ( by 6 for Sarko and 5 for Sego) but Sarko enjoys a 79 to 44 lead here. On image Sego gained on courage and dynamism but lost heavily on likeability.; 66 before the debate down to 53 afterwards; Sarko went up from 39 to 44 afterwards so the gap between the two went from 27 to 9. On the question who do you want to win (not quite the same as who will you vote for)48 plumped for Sarko before the debate and 52 afterwards. Sego got 36 before the debate and 37 afterwards. In other words a swing of just 1.5%. Among Bayrou’s supporters Sarko led by 51 to 30 after the debate.
All in all these are devastating findings for those who hoped for a Sego revival after the debate. Her aggression didn’t pay off overall and Sarko’s effort at appearing calm and Presidential won the day.Of course there will be other polls today and tomorrow and we’ll have to see whether they bear out these findings.
New thread - “Where have all the voters gone?
140.
Jonathan: There are hundreds, if not thousands.
You only have to compare the hits that this site gets daily with the number of regular commentators (what? 40? 50 tops? versus a few thousand daily readers?)
This site is read by many people nationwide. Very few comment!
146 - blue moon, thanks a lot for this. I’ve been looking for one of these all morning. Where can I find the raw numbers?
108 - Andrea I only voted Conservative!
No SSP or Solidarity standing in my ward just 2 Independents, Con, SNP, Lab, Lib Dem.
Anyway must head back out now!
Blue Moon @ 146: many thanks. From reading the live comments last night (although not the lame ramping afterwards) it was clear that Sarko was on course to walk the election…I am quietly confident with my prediction vote in the other thread but we will see soon.
Voted in Edinburgh Central this morning at 11.30.Had a wee peek at the clerk’s register and thought for that time of day rather a lot of names already crossed off. Is turnout high in Scotland, I wonder?
Anyone else got an impression?
152. My polling station was completely deserted, which I thought was a bit strange considering the nice weather - but this was about 2pm, and the clerk said turnout had been “not too bad”. My suspicion is that a low turnout would damage Labour, which is why I was hoping it would rain today.
106. If you put the Conservative candidate as your 9th preference, then it is very unlikely that you will end up voting for him/her!
OT. I can’t get access to http://www.vote-2007.co.uk.
Has it been hijacked by aliens?