How should Tony view his last elections?
May 4th, 2007
With Scotland not being quite the disaster that had been predicted how should the great campaigner, Tony Blair, view his final election in charge?
As I have often observed - “nobody ever got rich betting against Tony Blair” and certainly that might hold good with Scotland.
While the Tories have moved forward it is not just Labour that has suffered losses.
Carry on the election discussion here.
Mike Smithson
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After the SNP gains in Edinburgh East and Argyll, I believe SNP should be the favourite, and have entered the BF market.
I don’t know about the 840 Tory gains (unless you are counting Scotland & Wales) that one poster suggested. In England they look like topping out at around 750 gains. Still, all spin aside, that’s pretty darned impressive.
Even more so, in England they look like having taken almost exactly 50% of the total seats up for grabs.
Looks like a “win” to me.
Posted in the last thread just as you created this.
715 Councillor gains so far and still counting. I don’t recall anyone claiming we’d do this well.
Could finish around 250 losses for the Lib-Dems. Biggest news of the night I think, and if they keep their heads in the sand we could see a big swing back to two party politics returning to being normal.
More disaster for the Liberal Democrats, who have lost control of York, one of their flagship Councils. They have lost 6 seats to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour, with 2 wards to declare.
The Conservative have wildly exceeded expectations. Considering that Labour were down to their core vote in 2003, this is the equivalent of a general election landslide. In the last 100 years, no one with the current Conservative seat total has gone on to lose the subsequent general election.
This is no longer the 2000, or 2004 mid-term result, it is 1977 turning point on seat totals. The Conseratives are now the government-in-waiting.
And Labour are now a lame-duck administration. They have no moral authority to govern.
5 - best of all is that The Dour Unelectable One hasn’t even started to work his magic yet on the voters of Middle England! I am amazed at how well the Tories are doing, particularly the upsurge of the last hour or so!
It’s not a 1977 type result, but still pretty impressive.
Excellent performance form the Conservatives. Lib Dems, despite the hard losses to the Tories, still have won almost 200 seats more than Labour, so some small crumbs of comfort there.
Cameron superb soundbite:
“We control more councils than Labour in the North West”
“We control more councils than Labour in Yorkshire”
Perfect riposte to Labour spin.
With some relief and some disappointment.
To be ten years in office and be fighting the SNP to a standstill, winning wales comfortably is pretty good. If (and it’s a big if there are Lab led coalitions in both places that’s a major victory)
On the other hand, it’s clear that our base support in Local elections is now 26-27% (last three sets have been in this area.). That’s nod as bad as it could be (we won 2005 after getting 26 in 2004), but leaves us vulnerable to Tory progress.
It’s no 1997, but neither is it 77/8 or 68/69. For Labour that’s real progress.
1 - So has everyone else it seems, they were 8 or so just a little while ago, crazy movements but not much money I suppose.
Tony Blair has stated he views the Labour results as a “good springboard” to winning the next general election. One advantage of being deluded is you can believe your own spin.
5 - calm down! The Tories are a *long* way off 1977 figures. As for “no moral authority to govern”, how about Lab’s general election victory in 2005…?
Ming’s days must be numbered,with such an unpopular government a truly disastrous performance by the Lib Dems.
Did they take any councils at all from Labour in the North of England?
I helped the LD cause in Mid Dorset and North Poole and in this constituency we achieved 3 gains from the Tories ( all Poole Borough seats) and no losses. The “constituency led” campaign went very well acheiving all its targets comfortably and I offer this as just one example of how well the LDs can do in most places where they have a sitting MP and an effective party organisation.
This also surely shows David Cameron and his “New Conservative Party” they will have great difficulty in taking these constituencies in the next General Election!
2 - The Tories will have passed 750 council seat gains in a matter of minutes.
So this is the ‘doing OK but not really enough’ that the BBC were speaking about. I thought that York was one of the big Northern Cities we are ‘unable’ to make progress in. These results do just get better and there is one clear winner from these elections. Ming must surely now be concerned about Clegg and Co. Are they going to be happy to work with a stalled party that has about 55 MPs after the next GE?
TB has succeeded – in a Dunkirk sort of way. Labour is now penned back into its 1980s strongholds. With all due respect, it really isn’t the end of the world that the Tories have little presence in a few economically stagnant, depopulating northern cities. Especially since they are now the dominant force in the nation’s two largest cities. The Manchester/Liverpool/Newcastle argument is a complete red herring.
High Peak and Harborough now offically Tory gains, 2 more East Midlands wins to add to the long list.
Given that there seems to be a kernel of credibility to the claims from Labour last night that a shortfall in Conservative progress in northern urban areas was grounds for (Labour) comfort, the fact that the Conservatives are outperforming expectations in results across England as a whole would suggest that the north/south gap is widening. I can well understand Tony Blair taking the view that “I’m glad it’s your problem, Gordon, not mine!”.
Am I right in presuming that the regional top ups in Scotland work along the lines of party x gets 30% of the regional ( second vote ) but it already has 5 fptp seats so it is very unlikely to get any more top up seats ( ie 15 x 0.3 = 5 ). Party y gets 20% of the regional vote but 1 fptp seats so is likely to get 2 top up seats ( 15 x 0.2 = 3)? Clearly it is possible for a party to get more than its quota of fptp seats so deprive the others of the regional ones.
Cllr Lindley The capacity of the LDs to mess things up when they take control of councils is truly extraordinary what with parking schemes in Islington or ridculous neighbourhood councils in Tower Hamlets. If they stuck to something as boring as trying to run essential services efficiently and well they’d do a lot better. Instead it’s one silly gimmicky scheme after another. As for their performance this time overall the dreaded Con Lab nutcracker seems to me ever nearer MC’s nether regions. If they had any sense they would give MC the bottle of whisky and the revolver and move on. The choice is either CK if he’s truly dried out or a more intellectual young leader which means Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne ( who looks safer and safer in Eastleigh). ‘Oh don’t worry he’ll go after the GE and we’ll modernise then’. Why wait?
SNP say based on current seat count totals they have won a higher seats total and will be largest party. Reported on Sky News.
Remember the Bush victory in 2000. During count came from behind on a knife-edge to win.
5. ‘No moral authority to govern.’
Aside being elected for a five-year term of government two years ago.
Great night for the Tories here in Norfolk, average for Labour and pretty dire for the LibDems.
Conservatives hold West Norfolk, with both Lab and LibDems seeing their numbers reduced again.
Conservatives hold Broadland, with Tory majorities rocketing - LibDem and Ind seats lost.
Conservatives hold Great Yarmouth - honours even with Labour. No LibDem breakthrough.
Conservatives gain South Norfolk from LibDems - LibDems plummet to just 7 seats as the blues triumph in this once-flagship LD council. Cons gain 20 seats.
Conservatives set to hold onto Breckland (reuslts not through yet, I believe).
Conservatives make gains in Norwich, matching the Green Party advance and winning as many seats as the LibDems.
Finally, a night of good cheer for the Norfolk Tories!
22 Right on!
And now North Dorset goes blue
24. Moral authority comes from consent. Labour no longer have any! Labour have lost big, and lost everywhere.
Don’t the percentages of the popular vote (41-Cons, 27-Lab, 26-LibDem) look uncannily like the 1983 General election result? (Which I think from memory was something like 43-28-26)
A divided left is a gift to the Conservatives, going back even into the 19th Century.
Trying to work out the scores on doors. Assuming lab win Edin N and LDs win Edin W (no idea if either in doubt), that puts Lab on 40 and SNP on 36.
Then it’s just the 4 regional lists remaining. Then my tired brain goes ga-ga working out the permutations.
21 jgc, yep, you’ve got that about right, and that’s exactly what Labour did in Glasgow, taking 9 seats out of 17 instead of the 6.5 that their 38% share of the vote would get them.
28. Who you vote for to empty your bins is not quite the same as deciding who has their finger on the nuclear button.
Conservative now have more than 750 gains and going up quickly
15
If the current mood for change continues to the next election, i don’t think the electorate will let 64 bed blockers get in the way.
30. IIRC Lab won 4 list seats in those regions still left (2 in Highlands and 2 in NE Scotland). If they hold Ed North (it’s less safe than East, but swings are all over the place) and confirm those 4 seats they’re at 44.
Marcia, have you heard some potential figure for list vote in NE Scotland? If so, is Labour likely to hold its 2 list seats?
Tories heading towards around 850 councillor gains. They will have widened the gap with Labour by over 1300 seats.
Former Milton Keynes Lab MP Brian White elected on Milton Keynes Council
Great result in Folkestone - 16 Cons gain…
35 I was led to believe that the SNP vote in the NE is in the 40%+ range
29 - the % split is less favourable to the Tories. In 83 the Toreis were focused and the rest was divided across the board. In particular the Alliance had lots of good % votes but lost the seat. Wasted votes as it were.
The country still has an “anti-tory vote” - Labour in some places LD in others. There are fewer “wasted ” anti Tory votes. This is after 25 years of tactical campaigning by both parties.
As a result seats lost in 83 were held this time - Cardiff West and Vale of Glamorgan come to mind. So no it is not 83. And I was there so I should know!!!
In addition the cultural zeitgeist is not the same. In 83 Labour was completely (and I mean completely) out of tune with the country. The Tories are now winning by copying Blair. The rebuild that Labour have to do is just not of the same magnitude
22: Seems to be true. If York was a flagship council they majorly screwed up with a botched sale of a swimming pool — was the only issue on the door in my York ward and everyone else was making hay with it. They didn’t even deliver leaflets…
That said they have to be sure that the Tories have not got past the “tipping point” which in the last hour they may have
34 …….and in “the current mood for change” what is the gains/losses tally going to be for seats in LD constituencies only?
Anybody got the numbers yet?
My BBC ticker-thingummy has stopped working.
is there any chance of a new scotland election?(because of the spoiled ballots)
LDs have clung on as the largest party in York, losing 7 seats to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour. Conservatives also picked up a seat from a retiring independent to finish on 8, having been wiped out in 2003. The Liberal Democrat PPC for York Outer (a notional LD seat) has a Conservative Councillor for company in Strensall.
Final tally LD 19, Lab 18, C 8, Green 2.
congratulations to Sean Fear. With the Tory gains at 775 and counting, his 800 forecast looks pretty good compared with other expectations.
Salmond says SNP won “most votes” in constituencies and regions… Labour has “lost” the election…
Someone said West of Scotland totals included in BBC total. Not true. SNP now certain to stay ahead.
BBC TOTAL - SNP 40, Lab 39
With West of Scotland SNP should win.
And thank goodness that the BNP have gone bacwards despite Sean Fears talking up their chances week after week…
While that speech was on the SNP seat total has gone to 40.
west of scotland has now been added to the BBC total. so the 40 includes that.
How will the other 3 regions split?
SNP now ahead on seats. 40 to 39.
Anyone know what happened in Boston? The others appear to have swept to power. Which others might these be?
I’m getting “403 Forbidden” whenever I try and access http://www.labour.org.uk. Anyone else?
Salmond also seemed to be hinting strongly that they’ve got the most seats, saying it’s increasingly likely that the SNP will have the task of trying to form a Government or maybe I over-read him.
46,
Lib Dems always going to struggle in York after they took the council in 2003, and how they have run it.
This was reflected in their 2005 GE election result in Rydale which was terrible.
Good for the Conservatives prospects in 2010 for taking the new seat of outer York.
Those bar charts will be out again.
with regard to the regional top ups, to get 7 seats ( assuming a total of 16 seats ) a party would need around 43.75% the SNP in NE already have 6 so it must be pretty tight to get the 7th. Lab have 1 so will need to get around 18.75% to get 2 regional top ups. Am I right in thinking that the vote redistibution system tends to favour those with smaller percentages of the vote?
49. Err. That 40-39 does include WoS.
Interesting, UKIP have actually managed to gain a seat. No idea where but it is up on the BBC site total.
SNP favourites again on Betfair.
60 - UKIP have gained a few and lost a few - net +1 so far.
60 - Staffordshire Moorlands I think, buried amongst a Tory landslide and Labour disaster…
Projected Total
SNP 45
Lab 44
Unless the SNP make unexpected gains on top of this (which is possible), this is highly likley to the outcome. Wow - how close.
49 - Yeah, that was me. I had to correct myself rather quickly because I was looking at the 2003 results …
Looks quite good for the SNP now. Careful though, because Labour can still expect quite a few list seats in the North East and Highlands & Islands, where they’ve only won one constituency.
62 - Sorry, yes I meant they are actually up on the total they started with. I have sympathies with but don’t support them so I am always interested in seeing how they do.
this page http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/msp/elections/2007/07index.htm seems to be more up to date then the beeb.
Labour have lost slightly over a third of their council seats that were up for election.
Sorry. I meant a fifth!
64 Projected by whom?
Any votes for the best and worst council election websites? Leicester has one of the snazzier election ones - too bad that they can’t count faster.
58 jgc, no, the d’Hondt method used in Scotland slightly favours big parties.
18 - “it really isn’t the end of the world that the Tories have little presence in a few economically stagnant, depopulating northern cities.”
They’re only the way because the Tories callously f*cked them up - for which they’ll never, ever be forgiven.
Lab hold Edinburgh North
40 John, I remember it too. I was younger and idealistic in those days!
I wonder about the conventional wisdom of lumping the Labour and LibDem vote together, and saying that it shows the strength of the overall anti-Tory majority. I think that there IS an anti-Tory majority, but it is much smaller than that. Don’t forget that a significant number of the LibDem votes comes from Conservatives who vote for them for tactical reasons AGAINST Labour, in seats where their preferred choice has little chance of winning.
These tactical voters should really be deducted from the headline figure of the anti-Tory majority.
I wonder if anyone has done any deep studies into the breakdown of the LibDem vote, to get a better idea of how much of this tactical voting really goes on?
Labour marginal favourites again - 1.84 v 1.9
Expectations of Labour’s vote were massaged down by Labour Party spinners and their friends in the media so they can now turn round and claim: “we did much better than expected”.
It’s called “managing expectations” and anyone who falls for it is a clown.
Fraser Nelson - “Ming Campbell is trying his best not to look shell-shocked. Truth is, the Tory “love bomb” deployed on LibDem voters actually detonated.” I was too slow to capture it but Ming was just interviewed in Eastbourne (on Sky) with LibDem canvassers holding balloons in the background but all looking in the other direction. It looked dreadful.
Current English councillors tally with 40 councils still to fully declare - Tories up 776; Labour down 424; LDs down 228 (my favourite number); Others down 126. I expect pressure to mount on Ming Campbell over the weekend. Expect real rumbling by Sunday.
The minor parties seem to have little to show in England despite fielding a record number of candidates. Might we see the ‘others’ numbers now start to come down in the polls as the Conservatives increasingly look like winners?
Dave is playing a long game, and playing it quite well.
Labour hold Edin. N., LDs hold Edin. W.
77 - not really. They’re neck and neck in Scotland where they were expected to lose, and they’ve pretty much won in Wales. They’ve not done TOO badly. They deserved to do worse, and they didn’t. What does that tell you? A vast section of the population just won’t hold their noses and vote for anyone else.
Welsh Assembly all counted
Lab 26 (down 3)
PC 15 (up 3)
Con 12
LD 6
Ind 1
So there seem to be three regions remaining to be included
Lothians, NES, and H&I. Last time round, the SNP got 5 seats from these regions, Labour 4.
However, this time round in those regions constituencies,
SNP gained 2 seats in NES, 2 in Lothians, 2 in H&I, whileLab lost 1 in H&I, 1 in NES, 2 in Lothians.
I assume that will mean the SNP will get fewer list seats and Labour more. The precise proportions will decide who is ahead on seats.
BTW, I thouoght Salmond was impressive in his statement. Would like to see McConnell come out soon too.
47. Many thanks. But I was right for the wrong reasons. I believed that (as last year) Conservative and Labour losses would be close to parity, that the Lib Dems would break even, and that the minor parties would gain more seats than proved to be the case.
Current Total - SNP 40, Lab 40. Add based on counts -
Highlands
SNP 3
Lab 2
Lothians
Lab 0
SNP 2
NE
Lab 2
SNP 2
It looks like result is :
SNP Total - 46
Lab Total - 43
Tories now on 802 council seat gains. 30 councils still to declare.
Conservatives over 800+ councillor gains! Excellent result
How come the Tories are stuck on 12 in Wales when they have made 3 FPTP gains and seem to have done better than Plaid in terms of votes who seem to have 15.
Correction.
It looks like result is :
SNP Total - 46
Lab Total - 44
I wasn’t aware that I was “talking up” the BNP. I drew attention to the fact that they had performed strongly in local by-elections over the past 12 months. Like the Greens, I expected them to perform well in this round of elections.
I expect the minor parties became overconfident, and fielded too many candidates, when they should have concentrated on fewer seats.
All constituencies counted. Now I hope they declare the list votes fast as they should already have them!
here are the Highland seat votes - in some seats the SNP actual top the list vote - I think they are waiting on Argyll to produce figures and then we will see the Region List votes.
http://www.highland.gov.uk/yourcouncil/elections/electionresults/constituencyresults2007.htm
It looks like STV wasn’t really the problem at all, but the constituency and damned list vote on the same paper.
Solution: STV for everything!
Labour still favourites on Betfair….looks like they’ll squeak home by 1 seat, though could still be a dead heat.
84. The Lib Dems have done very badly indeed. They have lost masses of councillors to the Tories in the south, getting thumped in councils like S Norfolk, Uttlesford etc. which they controlled and losing ground in ‘targets’ like North Dorset and Aylesbury.
They have also failed to make much ground versus Labour in the north. Aside from a few ‘guerilla warfare’ gains here and there, it has been a bleak night. Under Ming, they are back to being an occasional party of protest.
85. I think you’ve just taken the 2003 list results there. The SNP constituency gains (and labour/LD losses) will probally reduce SNP regional list seats.
I’d make Labour v. v. marginal fave now, but it’s all down to D’hondt.
Final total vote shares:
SNP 32.9%
Lab 32.2%
Just a question of whether the 2 Glasgow distortion effects make up the difference for Labour.
Constituency seat
Lothians snp 2 lab 4
NE snp 6 lab 1
Highlands snp 4 lab 0
Intuituvely would seem to favour lab for top up unless SNP poll v high, maybe Salmond stresssing higher popular vote at this stage is significant
82 would the LDs prefer to come to an arrangement with a failed Labour government in Wales or let them carry on as a minority govt? Can’t see any likelihood of a PC CON LD coalition, it would play into Labour’s hands.
Will you say ‘based on counts’ Do you mean based on your intelligence on what’s happening in the counts? Let’s be really precise. Someone said that the SNP would get fewer list seats and Labour more in these three Regions. Presumably that’s balanced a little by the surge in the SNP list vote here?
92 I meant to say in previous elections the SNP polled more votes on the list in some seats than the party that won the constituency seat.
88 - it’s the mysteries of PR. Tories get more votes than PC but fewer seats. This isn’t inconsistent however, as PR just means “system that LibDems like”.
73 - hm - did you visit Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield in the late 70s or early 80s Stonch? Did you visit them again in 1997? They were a lot nicer, richer and more congenial in 1997.
95. What a fool.
Labour consolidated as favourites again.
Highland Council Final
Lib Dem - 21
Lab - 7
SNP - 17
Ind - 35
85 Will L, your numbers don’t make much sense. Highlands & Islands have 15 seats altogether, and last time Labour had 22% of the vote. In the other regions Labour have more or less stood still so they”’ probably get at least 20%, and thus 3 seats. The SNP had 23% last time, and assuming the same 10% swing towards them that they had in other regions, they can expect around 33% and and therefore five seats. But they already have four constituencies there, so they’d only get one list seat.
The betting market seems to be totally irrational today. Bettors are confusing the ‘counted total’ with the ‘projected total’. All pundits said it close, so Labour should never have been a firm favourite. What is going on?
Does this prove there is no such thing as a ‘rational market’ - well at least not in the short-run with imperfect information. This volatility is pretty extreme. Evidence supports evens price for both, or slight edge for SNP.
so its deuce between the SNP and Lab. Top ups seem to be approx
H & L
Lab 2 - 3 ( assume vote approx 18 % )
SNP 0 - 1 ( assume vote approx 30 % )
Lothian
Lab 0 - 1 ( 20% )
SNP 1 - 2 ( 24% )
NE
Lab 2 - 3 ( 20% )
SNP 0 - 1 ( 43% )
very close a tie still seems possible
Stonch - a vast section of the population?
Last I looked the Tories were heading for 800 more seats. A magnificent performance from an already high base. They are ahead of Labour by 14 points. I’m sorry but the spin on here is just absurd and not even very good spin. Cameron is cruising.
By contrast it now looks like Labour may LOSE their ultimate heartland, Scotland - when they are about to instal a scottish PM over the rest of us. It’s constitutionally disastrous for Labour, the West Lothian question, in big neon letters, is going to be shining into the political bedroom for the next three years. Keeping us all awake.
OT you could have got 8 on the SNP to win two hours ago - extraordinary money, no?
104 what a moron
Tories gain North Wiltshire with 16 gains, 9 LD losses. So much for the James Gray effect.
107. As far as I can tell Wills numbers have consistently failed to make sense.
102. The Lib Dems want STV.
If the Tories don’t have more seats then it’s because they didn’t get enough votes to earn more seats. It’s not rocket science.
Why haven’t Broxtowe declared yet? It must be the second easiest borough in the country to count. It’s geographically tiny, with has tiny wards. It’s very frustrating. I hope nothing controversial’s going on.
OT I am happy to report that my close friend Loic Rich has been voted on to Truro City Council for Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish Nationalists.
Kernow bys Vyken!
104. Now now Colin lad, no-one likes a bad loser.
West Wilts C Gain and N Wilts C gain - ‘Ming must really do better’
Tories now on 831 council seats.
Is 900 a possibility?
Tories now on 831 council seats.
Is 900 a possibility?
Tories now on 831 council seats.
Is 900 a possibility?
Tories now on 831 council seats gains.
Is 900 a possibility?
Tories now on 831 council seats gains.
Is 900 a possibility?
Blair is deluded, 831 seats gained and 35 councils,on that basis What counts as a bad result for Labour and the Lib Dims???
108: Nah! Looks to me like lots of people trying to do dodgy calculations based on less-than-complete data sets
. Given the margins involved its making the likely results swing back and forth. Electoral systems (*any* electoral system — ejit at 102) are notorious for creating anomolous results…
I think we may be looking at Feb 74 scenario
115. Cookie, you can see some Broxtowe results on their council website. You now have a BNP councillor. Can’t recall which ward though
Tories gain Erewash, from the results I have seen Tories will make gains in Broxtowe but not take the council.
125 2Jamie Labour are certain of getting over 40.5 seats now right ?
SNP NOW 1.15 TO 1 ON BETFAIR
107. Actually you will find that even where labour have stood still on the constituency vote, Labour have done much, much worse on the list vote, and the SNP have won a landslide on the list.
Labour themselves appear to have conceded defeat when McConnell spoke on 40 minutes ago. Clearly they know how the last 3 list counts are going and they are very bad for labour..
Huge moves to SNP on B/F
116. Very good result for the Tories in Carrick in Cornwall…10 gains to become biggest party. 9 LD losses.
All over the place again now: you practically can’t back the Nats.
127 - thanks Andrea - but can you post the link? I can’t find the results.
Have we seen the BBC “winners and losers”? Staggering
117. Indeed so.
Whatever the spin-meisters and expectation-managers said before the election, there is one sure way of telling who has really won, or done better, and that’s by assessing the provenance of ill-tempered, churlish and mean-spirited remarks on this blog.
We could call it the pb.com Bad Temper-ometer.
It is clear that all the grumpy, sour and downright ugly comments are coming, today, from the Lib Dems and Labour. By contrast we Tories and the SNP are beacons of sunlight and good humour.
On the pb Bad Temper-omer, the true winners are obvious.
103 - I’m from one of those cities, you eejit. The city centre of Newcastle is nice enough. The outlying areas, where the industrial workers used to live, are full of sinks estates and people with little or no prospects.
Sorry, but you are a total idiot for saying that.
SNP now firm favourites on bf: £170 at 1.12. Lab at 3.3.
Im hearing that the Tories have taken Broxtowe
133 yup - with a lot of work and some good Cornish candidates it might be time to repaint the south west blue
110 - SeanT - everyone (me included) wanted to see Labour get a TOTAL KICKING, a real hoof up the arse. God knows, they deserve it. Instead, what’s happened? They’ve lost a lot of councils in England they can win back, but they look like they’ll retain power in both Wales and Scotland. That’s not so bad, is it?
Chrisco When Jan from Norway speaks we should all sit up and take notice. By the way Jan you can lay off some of your Sarko winnings at a cheap price. Interested? No? I thought not!
The problem with the spinning in these elections has been the Friday afternoon vote count. Because there’s been that delay from early results to final counts, it means that the Labour spinners have managed to get in there early with the “Bad but not meltdown” line, and have managed to perpetuate that throughout the day.
This is despite much better than predicted results for the Tories in the English locals. They’ll probably go at least 850+, and that truly is a good, good result for them.
Broxtowe 3 from labour to Tory 3 from Lab to Lib dem
New council 16 Con, 15 Lib Dem, 8 Lab, 1 BNP, 2 Ind
Still NOC
135. Cookie, uhm, the page seems to have disappeared. Earlier I clicked on “live results” from the homepage and it took me to a page where some results were posted as they come in. Now it takes me to the councillors pages!
I couldn’t agree more. This tory in Surrey is very happy.
Sky News
SNP 42
Lab 42
Very bad for labour, they should have got 1 more than lab on this list. They cannot win more as things stand.
“how should Tony view his last elections?”
He could try viewing the map on the BBC site - it’s startlingly blue!
Cameron must be pleased, Blair is true to form spinning himself to a standstill, but the Lib Dems must be disappointed and Ming especially should be looking over his shoulder I would have thought. Where are our resident Lib Dems? Hope they aren’t drowning their sorrows, given the precedent of their erstwhile leader…
i.e. Labour should have got 1 more than SNP
What is the BBC on? The Conservative vote was not “the surge many had been hoping for,” apparently. They’re going to gain almost 900 seats from an already high base! What else counts as a “surge”?!?
142. They are about to lose Scotland. This is the ultimate defeat for Labour, short of a UK general election. This IS a kicking.
Moreover, the constituional ramifications for Labour are hideous. This comes just as we are about to have a Scottish PM governing England, many of whose decisions will not apply to his own people.
It’s hard to believe a democracy can survive such anomaly without radical reform. And that’s setting aside the mischief salmond will make with Brown.
Labour are doomed in England.
145. So much for Nick Palmer’s predictions then, quelle surprise.
Sky News have just said the tories have so far gained 447 seats. Is the actual number of 837 (on BBC) just too big for them to cope with?
One Broxtowe decision by lot - God was looking after the Lib Dem.
jgc are you ramping Labour. Very dodgy figures you put up over the last 2 hours. Very bad for labour, they cannot get the extra seat now. Lothians should give SNP an extra 2 over Labour. NE Labour/SNP equal
143 Thanks Blue Moon, but the whole Scotland thing is extremely difficult to read just now.
No, I keep my Sarko money, thank you very much. Pays for a nice trip to Pari””, methinks.
152 - yes it does look they’ll lose Scotland now, doesn’t it! Exciting stuff! So to some extent I qualify my post.
Labour aren’t dead in England, though. That’s just wrong. There are parts of England that will never vote Tory, ever, ever, ever.
“Moreover, the constituional ramifications for Labour are hideous. This comes just as we are about to have a Scottish PM governing England, many of whose decisions will not apply to his own people.”
Spin and nonsense is what I call that… come off it. Why is that a constitutional crisis?
Tories only have 40% of the vote.
Lib Dems spinning hard on Five Live
So result is
SNP Total 46
Lab Total 44
v.pleased (for political and personal reasons) to see Tories take North Devon in a stunning victory (plus 12 seats) after innumerable years of trying - the writing must really be on the wall for Ming when they lose this heartland - roll on the general election……
140 - Unless Broxtowe’s own web site is telling lies, The Tories have 3 gains with one more ward, where they could make 2 more, to come. As a result they can only gain 5, they needed 10 to take the conucil.
Can someone just tell me what would have been bad for Labour, if 27% and losing Scotland is “not bad”. Were they expecting Gordon Brown to get drunk and grope some student nurses, live on TV, before throwing up over the Queen? Would that count as “bad”?
Similarly, what do the Tories have to do to do “well”? Win in Poland? Take control of St Petersburg?
Boston - By pass group have taken 25 seats and control!
159 its actually 41%.
…into outer space
161 Will - I have 500 quid riding on this election. If you are going to put up numbers at least give a source. Thanks.
152 - It’s hard to believe a democracy can survive such anomaly without radical reform. And that’s setting aside the mischief salmond will make with Brown.
It is hard to believe that Labour can get away with gerrymandering the voting system into a “banana republic” and creating assemblies only where it think it can win. Maybe Salmond can sort it all out for all out for us!
136 Ross Nick Asssinder is always pro Labour but that piece is exceptional: straight out of the Labour song book. No thinking needed by Grub Street hacks.
After all the spin from CCO, they have exactly the same vote share as last year. Labour have 1% more and the libdems 1% less. Hardly earth shattering.
how about a headline of LibDem gains and Conservative losses? OK some might say that it is only in sleepy South Lakeland, but nevertheless we gained 3 seats from the Cons, and they were very relieved to hang on to 2 others.
pre LD 31 Con 18 Lab 2 Ind 1
post 34 15 2 1
(the Lab seats and Ind seat were not in the cycle)
In my ward (2-member, not me in the cycle)…….it was last fought in 2003 where Cons won 906 to 812, with Lab getting 198. This time, straight LD/Con fight:
Pru Jupe LD 1516
David Clarke Con 661
t/o 60% maj 855
……..so why the difference?……I could say that it is all down to me as the “other” DC (and County Councillor), but I am a little more modest than that! It was down to teamwork that saw a good campaign, with an attractive candidate, and a lot of hard work. And……what the local Cons are calling “the Farron factor”. Tim Farron, as the local MP is showing not only that the LibDems really do work all year round,but that voting LibDem really can (and does) make a difference.
It was interesting that David McLean, the neighbouring MP (remember the problems that Westmorland & Lonsdale Cons had a few months ago in getting rid of their PPC?), stamping his shepherd’s crook on the floor…….and then disappeared when it was evident that his party were doing poorly. We were also blessed in Kendal by the presence of the Con regional campaigns director….so presumably he had a “helping hand” in the local campaign. He became increasingly tetchy as the day progressed. The joy of relief in the faces when Sedbergh was held was marked.
And what of the local Conservatives? Their blue-eyed boy (lost one of the Windermere seats) confirmed the slogan about starting off blue and going green! ……another political career demolished before it gets off the ground; and their parliamentary agent had decided to fight a seat which the Cons won by 17 in 2003. He lost 664 to 445……not even close! So where from here? Further internicine strife?
However, what this local flavour tells us is simply that these are just that…….local elections, with twists and turns that are affected in many cases by local factors. The spinmeisters may say what they want, but the big picture is made up of lots of little pictures, and there may be pixels which are out of place. This might make the overall picture not one to focus upon. After all, certainly in South Lakeland the future is both definitely bright, and orange!
……….oh, and I expect to continue a Chair for a second year! Off to welcome some attractive, young (well young-ish for some), and female, new District Councillors.
Vince Cable of just on Five Live blaming there election disaster on the media and lack of attention.
Still calling it a “mix bag”
158. The whole dynamic of politics in the last 10-15 years is that those parts of England don’t need to vote Tory now to get rid of Labour. Across Britain, there are Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Green, BNP, Respect and Independent options available. You won’t find many Tories in Blaenau Gwent, but that’s not stopped the Labour Party winning it the last few times.
Stonch, if you can’t honestly see the constitutional problems an SNP victory poses for a Labour party dominated by Scots and led by a Scot, trying to govern England with laws that don’t apply to Scots, then I suggest you have a nice sit down and a long think.
I’m sure Alex Salmond is going to delight in showing you what I mean over the next three years.
The question is, will the Tories play the West Lothian card from now on? It will be extremely tempting - and its kryptonite for Labour. Incendiary stuff!
164 - excellent post. Made me laugh out loud!
seanT, I sense I’d be repulsed by your views, but you are a very witty man…
Benedict White did not win his seat in Mid Sussex LibDem 941/923 Con 597/536 . Turn out was well up though .
159. Which, with the Lib Dems on 26% and Labour on 27% would give the Conservatives a working majority at the general election. Plus its an 8% increase on the Tories’ last GE result. Pretty huge swing.
156
no I am just looking at the figures from last time and also doing the maths using the percentages used in the last post. The SNP may have done considerably better and Lab considerably worse in the regional lists and in that case the seats would be different but the figures I used were based on comments here eg SNP getting 40+% in NE. Not sure where the 2/2 result you mention comes from?
168. What I have done is taken the previous results, current results, swing on the list, and projected to other lists yet to declare using an excel spread sheet. Took me many hours to do.
These calculations have been reliable so far in predicting the existing list results.
152 Lets hope so. Scotland has long been a tiefdom of the Labour Party and I would love to see that sorted out.
Broxtowe complete - One ward voting later.
175 - no, I don’t. Maybe as someone who thinks of the constitution in terms of a grasp of constitutional law, as opposed to Tory spin and an instinctive dislike of anything or anyone “foreign” (which is where most the Tory media are coming from), I’d see what you meant. But I don’t.
179. The 2-2 result is on the BBC web site. Will L. was right on this on.
Lab and SNP get 2 each in NE
Has there been any cause to revise the vote shares in the light of what has happened today? It seems bizarre that the vote shares are better for Labour than some of the direst predictions but Conservatives have done much better in seats than ANYONE predicted.
As for the BBC - they’ve just been pathetic. Not anti-Tory, but this was the stupidest thing i saw on their website!
155. Well, he is one of the beard and sandals brigade…
175 - no, I don’t. I think of the constitution in terms of British constitutional law, as opposed to Tory spin. There is no problem with Gordon Brown being British Prime Minister, other than the fact no-one likes him. Him being a Scots MP is irrelevant.
SNP have won the seats battle - just.