So is Labour winning the expectation war?
May 4th, 2007
The election thread - part 3
With the BBC national vote share projection showing CON 41%: LAB 27%: LD 26% there’s little doubt that the party that has done better than expectation is Labour. The talk of an electoral “meltdown” has been somewhat premature.
Yet there is still a long way to go before we see the full results from yesterday’s and today should be very exciting.
The stories about electronic counting and the number of ballot papers declared void might take the edge of any survival glow that might attract to Brown-Blair’s party.
What a recipe for confusion?
This thread will be replaced by another as soon as it gets too long.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike, who has won the Bedford mayoral racE?
Reposted from old thread
“415 I heard 600 Cons gains, that’s plenty for me. But 100 Lib Dem losses is just dire, even the LibDem super-spin expectation management here, trying to go as low as possible, had predictions like ‘30 LD gains’ to be equal to where they were last year.
Leadership challenge surely
When will LibDem voice blog with some degree of impartiality?
by Test May 4th, 2007 at 7:50 am ”
Mike what happened in Bedford
SNP GAIN Cunninghame North from Labour
On topic it seems to me that we are seeing an exact replay of last year when Labour were spun by bbc, murdoch bias into “not that bad” and then as the full scale of the disaster became clear the results could no longer be spun
Correct me if I’m wrong but I’m seeing strange Tory gains in Scotland, good results in Wales, kicking Labour in England and perhaps most importantly David Cameron’s party taking seats and councils off the LibDems - seen by most Tories as the tougher target
Firstly I think that as the dust settles tonight Labour will look to be in far worse shape
Secondly, the present winner of media management are the LibDems because nobody is commenting on their meltdown & total failure to advance
But when it sinks in that instead of substantial gains they have 100 losses… you can’t hide actual results forever
re 1. The Bedford count is today. It is likely to be very close and I’m still optimistic that we, the LDs, might have just squeezed it.
Stuart, how many marginals still have to be declared?
Aberdeen Central (Lab/SNP)
Eastwood (Lab/Con)
Linlithgow (Lab/SNP)
Livingston (Lab/Snp)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden
Western Islands (Lab/SNP)
Argyll & Bute (you never know with the Libdems tonight)
any other interesting seats still to declare?
Summary of FPTP changes:
SNP gains from Lab:
Central Fife
Cunninghame North
Dundee West
Glasgow Govan
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Stirling
SNP gain from Ind (Canavan):
Falkirk West
SNP gain from LD:
Gordon
Con gain from LD:
Roxburgh & Berwickshire
LD gain from Lab
Dunfermline West
Oops, posted and then discovered Mike directed us to a new thread. (Thanks for the great service, Mike - I went to bed at 1230 but enjoyed myself reading last night’s thread this morning before any news sites.) Broxtowe not counting till 10am. Nottingham, which the Tories had said they hoped to win, produced a massive Labour victory - 42 Lab (+6), 7 Con (-1), 6 LD (-5). I’m cautiously optimistic, but who knows?
I’m cautious about the Scottish final outcome since d’Hondt usually evens things up pretty accurately, so the small SNP lead in % may produce a tie or even a tiny SNP lead. But overall Labour seem to have headed them off at the pass quite dramatically in view of the polls (so much for YouGov’s panel! - I’m convinced it is overweighted by third parties). Wales was clearly bad for Labour, but the English results seem all over the place. What’s happening is not that one party is gaining a bit in most places, but that parties are getting swept in and out with spectacular local changes in seats, and I don’t think that can really be spun as a great victory for anyone.
We can all point to local triumphs while skating over the fact that we got chewed up somewhere else: it’s a score draw. The Tories can consle themselves with being net seat gainers but it’s patchy to say the least.
Given the national polls and the chortling here in in the press about the terrible drubbing Labour would get, I’m pretty happy with it: a better than expected starting point for Gordon.
by Nick Palmer MP May 4th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Did I hear at some point last night that it is fairly certain that Jean Turner (Ind) has lost badly in Strathkelvin & Beardsden? Or was it just a dream?
Who has won that seat? Not LDs I assume.
8.”Wales was clearly bad for Labour”
I tend to agree because you’ve been run close in many seats where it was expected. But in the end Labour has won 26 seats. And they started from a notional 28 total. So in terms of seats it got the most optimistic end of many predictions. I don’t think there were many people prediction more than 26 seats for Lab in Wales
8. Nick Palmer MP
Should that not be: “a better than expected starting point in Gordon.”
O/T France - It’s all over
Socialists had started to believe their own spin abour Royal’s “brilliant” performance in the debate. They were devastated by yesterday night post-debate poll results (some Royal advisors were in tears).
4 post-debate polls yesterday
- Opinion way 54/46
- CSA 53/47
- TNS Sofres 54.5/45.5
- Ipsos 54/46
Average: 53.87
Is Allan Wilson, Deputy Minister for Enterprise and Lifelong Learning, the only Lib-Lab minister to lose their seat thus far?
Score draw? I’ll give you a “score draw” of 41-27 any day.
I will also happily “console myself” with a mere gains across the country inc North, Wales & Scotland, 600 seats added, 15 councils, gains from LibDems in SW as well as Lab everywhere, 41% of the vote (at least) and a 14-point lead over Labour.
It’s scant “consolation” for not winning every seat in the nation but I think we’ll just about live
LD have won the initial media management game except on Sky who have rightly described the LD results as disastrous. Sky show 136 LD councillor losses.
136! It gets better and better
HF, I’m telling you, they can’t hide forever
the blogs will pick up on this when everybody drags themselves out of bed and starts to analyse and then the dead tree press will have to tomorrow
Much of key English patches like the East Mids count today, no?
Will the Scottish election have to be rerun This I thgink from the guardian blog:
”
Just back from the NE count.
The reason for so many spoiled papers lies in four little words “you have two votes” printed at the top, in the middle of your two Holyrood ballots.
Many, many people put more than one X in the regional ballet - some also did same constituency.
Angela Gorrie, Dundee, United Kingdom”
If true no wonder there were so many mislead voters.
Derwentside district council (my ward) a lot closer than expected:
Labour 29 (-11)
Lib Dem 2 (+1)
Others (mainly Derwentside Independents) 24 (+10)
In this council, which is usually very safe for labour even in it’s worst of times (they’ve held it ever since it’s creation), this is pretty bad for them.
why hasn’t the South Scotland been declared yet? They’ve finished to count all FPTP consituencies hours ago
17 - I have to agree with that actually. Very poorly worded papers. Scots disenfranchised?
Central Scotland list seats
SNP 5
Con 1
LD 1
19. Andrea
I just cannot understand it Andrea. They counted both the const plus the list votes at the same time. ie. they have the numbers!
LD results very poor. They did badly in Horsham. They won a couple of seats but lost 8. A softer vote than Labours which went up, enough to deprive LDs of seats.
I think the Beeb is actually ahead of sky ws website for once …
Stuart Dickson and Andrea, have either of you had any sleep?
BBC Good Morning Scotland saying that overall Turnout will be up by approx 3-4%? So, about 54% overall?
22. Exactly, Stuart. They should already know them
21. Andrea
Central Scotland List, compared to 2003:
SNP 5 (+2)
Con 1 (n/c)
LD 1 (n/c)
SSP 0 (-1)
SSCUP 0 (-1)
25. Test, not yet.
But I had breakfast!
Italian breakfast = a tiny cup of espresso drunk very fast standing up at a bar plus possibly a roll or pastry
I worry about you Andrea!
28. Overall in that regione it’s a 5 seats gain for SNP (2 list seats and 2 constituencies). Labour is down 1.
Con and LD returning their MSP.
SSCU and SSP losing their seats (appaling score for SSP)
30. Test, milk and biscuits this morning.
NOC HOLD Falkirk Council:
Lab 14 (+2)
SNP 13 (+2)
Con 2 (n/c)
oth 3 (-4)
Stuart/Andrea, when is Eastwood expected to declare?
I thought the Stirling result in particular was fascinating and great result for SNP.
34. Alexander. Earlier I saw a “Eastwood count suspended”. I don’t think if it has been resumed.
Just a quick comment before heading off to the count. I thought Bullseye had it summarised well on the previous thread.
Labour is winning the expectations battle. This is a poor night for them, but not a disaster by any means. They might lose to the SNP in Scotland, but it will be so close that they will probably stay in power anyway and the local results look acceptable for a party mid-term.
The Lib Dems have had a much worse night, losing nearly as many councillors (net) as Labour - not something that should be happening if you’re in opposition. But that’s offset by a neutral outcome (so far) in terms of council control.
It’s been a good Conservative performance, but again with caveats. 700 gains - if it comes about - is very healthy, but it would be nicer if it was more smoothly spread. I am a bit miffed about the coverage of Bury though: OK, it wasn’t a Tory gain but it has gone from ‘Labour largest party’ to ‘Conservative largest party’ which is a good consolation.
SNP: So near yet so far?
Plaid: Could be better, could be worse.
Minor parties: Nothing to write home about yet.
Overall - a good night if you’re a spinner as there’s no incontrovertable story coming out.
With 11 out of 32 Scottish councils declared:
SNP 107 councillors
Lab 88
LD 54
Con 39
oth 72
NOC: 9 councils (+5)
oth: 2 councils (-1)
Lab: 0 councils (-4)
Leader happiness rating (IMHO)
DC 7.5/10
TB 5.5/10
MC 3/10
I posted yesterday what a special day polling day is. After a very bleary-eyed count and bed at 5am, the morning after is feeling rather grotty!
I can barely string sentences together. But, spinning apart, it seems that a national vote share of 41% is good progress for us, but not stratospheric. Labour vote seems to have held up better than expected at 27% - particularly in Wales. Lib Dems had a mixed night, and from what I can see so far, they will be rather disappointed and worried to have stayed in 3rd place on 26%. Will Ming be able to survive this, I wonder?
From the N Wales perspective, we did very well in Delyn and Vale of Clwyd, but bitterly disappointing to have missed out on taking both those seats off Labour (by 500 and 92 votes respectively).
Turnout was up on 2003 by around 10%, with big regional votes for the BNP in NE Wales. Gut feel is that somehow eyt again Labour have managed to get enough of their core vote out to hang on.
In Alyn & Deeside where I was agent, a big surprise vote for the independent candidate damaged Labour (down around 8%), we held our vote share and increased our absolute vote. Lib Dems badly squeezed into 4th place.
Akin to Scotland but on a much smaller scale, there were consierable numbers of regional (”2nd vote”) papers where voters marked 2 candidates.
Off now to work, to try and put in a day’s hard graft. Looking forward to some more of the Englsih results as they come through during the day.
NOC GAIN from Labour: East Ayrshire Council
Lab 14 (-9)
SNP 14 (+6)
Con 3 (+2)
oth 1 (+1)
Ming has gotta go.
Luton results so far:
Barnfield: 2 LD hold
Bramingha: 2 Con hold
Crawley: 2 LD hold
Farley: 3 Lab hold
Hightown: 2 Lab hold
Icknield: 2 Con hold
Leagrave: 3 Lab hold
Lewsey: 3 Lab hold
Limbury: 1 Lab hold and 1 Con gain
Northwell: 2 Lab hold
Round Green: 3 LD hold
South: 3 Lab hold
Stopsley: LD hold
Sundon Park: 2 LD hold
Wigmore : 3 LD hold
BBC Good Morning Scotland: “100,000 spoilt ballot papers and 7 counts are “suspended”"
Anthony Wells elected in Dartford
Test. I didn’t realize that William Hague got 36% or that IDS reached 38% or that Michael Howard reached 40% just before Labour won their third overwhelming General election victory….
It was something of a mistake to predict losses of over 500 for Labour because the story of the night-spread particularly by Nick Robinson-is that Labour havent done too badly and the Tories will be disappointed.
The reporting is not quite as bad for the Tories this morning but the tone was set last night. The Tories mistake was to ramp their chances too much and to suggest Labour would fall too far.
44 and Nick Barlow in Colchester. Pity Mike wasn’t standing
-177 net losses is the Liberals or predecessor parties worst ever performance.
Is this going to be worse?
“The Tories mistake was to ramp their chances too much and to suggest Labour would fall too far. ”
Was there such a suggestion? The impression I got from a few sources that the good/bad mid point was 500 _gains_ for the Tories, regardless of where from (and at present it looks to be a fair bit more than 500). Taking them from the Libdems is just as important, because there will be a need to win Westminster constituencies from them in the next GE.
47 from what base? Lib Dems were defending highest ever share of councillors.
LD gain Caradon and bring themself under 100 losses at the moment
The election losses in seat terms suffered by the lib dems seem to be due to a huge amount of seats changing hands to the tories in some southern seats (Bournemouth and Windsor&Maidenhead for example).
Bournemouth:
Con 41 (+23)
Lib Dem 7 (-23)
Labour 3 (N/C)
Others 3 (N/C)
Is this sudden huge swing really due to the tories getting so many more votes in Bournemouth and the Lib Dems losing so many, or is it due to the fact that a lot of the seats in question only required very small swings to change hands?
O/T France
This morning Royal called voters to “make the polls lie with their massive vote”. She maintained that Sarkozy is “a risk for France” and that her candidacy is the one “without risks”
Her campaign director added that victory is “still possible”.
49 - er no, 1995-7 was a higher share.
Still too early to call in England - 132/312 - not even a third of the way.
Should be a fun day in here - keep it nice y’all…
48. It is significant where Tory votes come from. On here few Tories were suggesting Labour losses of less than 500. Certainly not Sean Fear one of the most knowledgable of Tory posters. So I’m sure that would have been the opinion on most Tory sites and this is what Nick Robinson reflected. I don’t see it as a particularly bad night for the Libs. Their results are rarely in their own hands
This reminds me of 1990 - Labour advanced all over the country, but it wasn’t the wipeout that many had predicted - so the Conservatives were able to come out smiling having held Wandsworth and Westminster. Draw from that whatever analogies you will.
Where we are is where most serious Tories predicted we’d be. But hints were made of massive gains - whether by over-excitable Tories or by mischievous Lib-Labbery - and little effort was put into damping down expectations to realistic levels. The Tories have had the better night electorally, but come off third-best in the spin war. Again.
PA reports Lib Dems -97 councillors. (-14 in Torbay and -23 in Bournemouth)
55 - So Roger, this is a bad bad night for the Tories, gaining, so far, 15 councils but a brilliant night for Lab and the Lib Dems?
Caradon win for Lib Dems is the 1st time theyve ever taken control down there.
Right, I’ve gotta get away to bed. But before I go, here is the Scottish council scoreboard so far:
With 11 out of 32 Scottish councils declared:
SNP 121 councillors
Lab 102
LD 54
Con 42
oth 73
NOC: 10 councils (+6)
oth: 2 councils (-1)
Lab: 0 councils (-5)
Ind lost Moray.
Lab lost Clackmannanshire, East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire.
Actually looking at the councils left to declare, I think the end picture in England is going to be better for the Tories than it looks now. Most of the mets have declared, and they rarely allow big gains or losses with their one-third approach. Many of those left to declare are all out elections with multi-member wards - which allow for bigger than average swings.
But there again, maybe I’m just being over-excitable.
sorry, meant 12 out of 32 (too tired)
Finally, finally: BBC Radio Scotland: “Electoral Commission are to launch a full, independent review.”
“So I’m sure that would have been the opinion on most Tory sites and this is what Nick Robinson reflected”
Well, i’m definitely no authority on Tory blogs, but the CH poll was showing an average expectation of +437.
58. Not at all. I’m discussing the thread header which is about expectations and as Cookie describes so well the Tories have turned reasonably good into rather disappointing
Night night folks! Have fun
Add in Windsor and Maidenhead (Lib Dems - 18) so Torbay, Bournemouth and Windsor and M. account for more than half Lib dem councillor losses.
I do predict massive Tory gains, and I am surprised by the extent of the LibDem meltdown, 100 losses was my prediction (and go back to prior threads to find out how it was mocked at the time) but admittedly I am always an optimist
600 gains if true is phenomenal
Perhaps I should wait and see if it actually happens, plenty of councils to come
63 Thanks for that timely retrospective piece of info!
66 - All in the South. Is this a worry for the Lib Dems?
Stuart sleep well and rise refreshed to battle Labour!
69 Of course it is - in those areas. I was making the point that half the 100 or so Lib Dem losses (so far) are in just three council districts.
Too many commentators are questioning Mings future and all it needs is a senior figure to break ranks and the ball could start rolling………
PS Very impressive Tory on the BBC panel last night. Unfortunately I didn’t catch his name but bright and young. Much more likeable that George O
Not wishing to sound like a broken record, but listening to the radio on the way in to work it was depressing to hear the “Tories not doing enough to win”, “still pointing to a hung parliament”, “no councillors in Manchester” nonsense. They are 14 points clear of Labour on a national projection (the 41/27/26 projection not being the English “result”, but a UK-wide projection I understand), and picking up councillors in all the marginal areas they need to win back, so how can than point to anything other than a Tory win next time?
I can see the BBC News headlines in May 2010 being “Cameron under pressure after winning no MPs in Manchester, Liverpool or Newcastle; small consolation of working majority of 10 in the Commons; appointment with Queen later…”
O/T France - It’s all over
Socialists had started to believe their own spin abour Royal’s “brilliant” performance in the debate. They were devastated by yesterday night post-debate poll results (some Royal advisors were in tears).
4 post-debate polls yesterday
- Opinion way 54/46
- CSA 53/47
- TNS Sofres 54.5/45.5
- Ipsos 54/46
Average: 53.87 / 46.12
73 Bob Sykes exactly
But they won’t be able to hide from the final results
Tories 41 to Labour’s 27
Tories projected a massive 600 gains
Tories take (at least) 15 councils
Tories win in Wales & Scotland
Tories largest party in Birmingham first time in, what, 27 years?
Tories unexpectedly hammer Liberal Democrats - worst case scenario staring them in the face
Tory majority in GE predicted at 41 seats…
Oh how can I “console myself” with such results?
re 8. Nick you know that a small SNP lead will not be enough for them because of Lab’s over-representation in Glasgow (won 9 seats, but deserved 6) and Central 9won 8 seats but deserved 6/7).
“Tories win in Wales & Scotland”
Which Wales and Scotland was that?
77: “Tory wins” might have been more accurate semantically
All the results for the Aberdeenshire Local Elections are in and the best news is that there are no Labour Councillors in the whole of Aberdeenshire yet again.
State of play after all counts is
Liberal Democrats 24(-4)
SNP 22(+7)
Conservatives 14(+3)
Independent 8(-6)
78 Or Whines?
Can someone with BBC connections ask Jeremy Vine where he bought his trousers? I would like a pair just like.
Or ‘tories win one MSP and are static in the welsh assembly - so far’. But why let the facts get in the way.
I suppose the rest are fair, albeit slightly skewed to the writers POV.
Morning all :). Apart from the partisan rantings of “Test”, who we can and should ignore, there’s still a long way to go with this so only early indications of an analysis from me.
As far as the LDs are concerned, some good results (Eastbourne, Hull) and some shockers (Windsor, Torbay, South Ribble, Bournemouth). Some other Council “losses” have been on the turn of one or two seats in “third-up” authorities such as Woking where control oscillates between Con, LD and NOC. A change of one seat can make a headline, so to speak.
The bigger losses are harder to deal with though it’s happened before in Torbay and may well happen again. Elsewhere, a recovering Conservative vote would have been a factor. I suspect the activist base weas sitting on the Council and was probably unable to keep up the work on the ground. It is to be hoped that the campaigning will resume now the Councillors are ex-Councillors (though the experience will be invaluable). It may well also be that the Council wasn’t well run. However prepared you may be for power, campaigning for office and winning office is the easy bit.
Providing good governance in all its forms is the real art of the politician. Clearly, in some areas, we’ve done that, in other areas we haven’t. As the results indicate, in places like Salisbury for example, Conservative incumbents have suffered too.
In the event of a tie in Scotland between SNP & Labour for seats can I suggest a tie breaker question a la Readers Digest.
‘We were the moral victors tonight because…..’. In 20 words or less.
83: Stodge
“I suspect the activist base weas sitting on the Council”
Well that’s just disrespectful…!
83 - indeed as Marcus is fond of pointing out, there are significant local facotrs in Torbay. Which is as it should be - any council not up to scratch, regardless of colour, should stand on its record and be judged accordingly.
Talking of which, just off to the count ….
Human rights lawyers will no doubt be rubbing their hands with glee this morning in Scotland with the thought of how much money they can make from the problem with Spoilt Ballot papers.
Rumours will soon be going round that Cherie Blair has arrived in Scotland to see if she can get her snout into the trough as Tony has given up with his day job.
The LibDems results were anaemic in Horsham.
83: “a recovering Conservative vote would have been a factor”
Would be interested to hear your measure of “recovering” - 50% projected share? 60%?
100%?
well roger Sky reckons LAB are going to lose 500 seats. As they have done for a long time the BBC predict a good night for LAB and slowly roll back as time goes on. Nick Robinson this morning is adjusting his position by the second. It is not that the tory spin machine has failed to get their message over it is BBC journalists lazily failing to accept th evidence of their own eyes.
Nick Palmers idiotic delusion about England being a mixed bag of results is just sad.
Anyone have that link for the timetable for todays results - PA I think -(Yes I’ve tried google..)
Stodge. Spin free facts: you are projected to LOSE well over 100 councillors in the face of one of the most unpopular Labour governments ever
Before the election, LDs on PB were predicting that the equivalent of “stand still” for the Lib Dems was 30 gains (iirc) and that takes into account that all partisans underplay their true hopes.
There is nothing mixed about the following
2006: Tories 316 gains, Lab 316 losses, LD 2 gains
2007 Tories 600 gains, Lab 500 losses, LD 136 losses (projected)
That is not the record of a party of true opposition
OK off to work
At the risk of being parochial, I am delighted by our results in Peterborough - where we took 3 out of 4 target wards (2 Labour and one Independent)and our colleagues in NW Cambridgessire took both their targets (1 Lib Dem and 1 Labour). Labour are now officially the 5th biggest party on the City Council with 2 seats!
A little spice has been added by the arrest in Central Ward of three people over election irregularities yesterday morning.
93 Congratulations Stewart.
I saw you on BBC News 24 just before the election and thought you put your views forward very well.
This could end up being a bad night for the Cons - if Ming gets chopped and Clegg gets in..
Re: 92 - I acknowledged a good result for the Toriers, Test. Perhaps you ought to read what people write once in a while
One other thought - I’ve seen nothing on turnout. As we all know, the Conservatives are and always have been good at getting their vote out while both Labour and the LDs have often struggled.
If, as I suspect, turnout has been very low, this election will tell us nothing more than the Tory vote is motivated. It tells us nothing about what will happen in a 60-65% turnout election and Tories who think it does should remember 2000 when William Hague went around visiting the Tory gains that night only to walk away from the leader’s job a year later.
Does anyone have any turnout from the English Council elections ?
93 Stewart why do you think the very strong tory performance across the whole country - way stronger than the BBC prediction is being reported as ‘OK’ - is it a failure of our PR teams or is it because it doesn’t fit the BBC worldview.
many many congrats on Peterborough, my old stomping ground and very glad to see it back firmly in the blue fold
Tories did well but not amazing. Labour’s vote was similar in 2004 one year before GE win. All to play for. LD’s a busted flush under Ming. Can’t rely on them in the South.
Well it was the most dirty campaign I have come across and although the Bury result was disappointing especially to lose Unsworth by 4 but I finally won my seat, after three recounts (they put a boundle of my votes into my opponents. So for just this one time I’m going to be pompous and sign off as
Cllr Penketh (Cons) Radcliffe North
76. Based on those very consistent averages for Sarko, the Unibet market for % of vote may have value now, in particular 53.51 - 55.00 at 4.5/1, with small saver bets placed above and below.
48.00 or below 22.00
48.01 - 49.00 15.00
49.01 - 50.00 8.00
50.01 - 51.50 5.00
51.51 - 52.50 4.25
52.51 - 53.50 4.00
53.51 - 55.00 5.50
55.01 or above 6.50
99 nice one Councillor Penketh! largest party in Bury - what a disaster that was for the tories
101. They cant win in the North !
SNP clean sweep of list seats in South of Scotland!
101 + 102. was dissapointing but as I said was a dirtly fought campaign, still we made gains and on losses so it could have been worse. We gained Chester and South Ribble.
MSPs so far Lab 32, SNP 31….
96 Turnout seems to be about the same as last year not as low as some were saying it looked like it was going to be yesterday pm .
LibDem performance mixed but too many more poor results than good ones . Losses heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of councils . Labour performance not good but better than the dire results many including myself expected . Conservative performance good but not as good as some forecast . Back to number crunching .
Did the SNP really get 51% of the list vote in the South of Scotland? Green loss even though we bucked the trend there and increased our vote. Not looking too good for the Greens in Scotland overall.
107 What on earth happened to the Tory top-up vote in South of Scotland?
when are the next likely council results to come through?
re 103. If the BBC is correct the figures look extraordinary. SNP +23, Lab -21, yet they didn’t win a single consitutency seat. If this is repeated in the other regions (SNP do much better in the list vote) then they’ve won.
108. I think because the won a seat they get less on the top-up ?
107. Neil, what do you think? Will the Green be reduced to 2 seats?
The first Lothians one will be held. Anything else?
104 don’t forget making gains in Blackburn Barrow Wigan SUnderland winning East Riding of Yorkshire, picking up 11 seats in Wyre and a few in Crewe etc etc - Northern tories are being way too modest if they don’t think this is a performance to be proud of. Labour scraping into 2nd place overall because of a dreadful LD performance is false consolation - it hs been a truly terrible night for Labour
95. The truth is that an LD squeeze is likely in teh run up to teh next GE.
The Lib Dems have a high base and they’ve already hit it. they are the 3rd oarty in the UK and will be for some time. End of.
The Iraq factor has lost some heat and more significantly the country is moving more into Red & Blue camps as the Tories are moving forward and Labour types move in response to their more regular home. This squeeze will likely continue no matter who the leader.
Other point not mentioned is that Lab did not meltdown - hence GB now shoe-in for PM…
111 In 2003 they had 63,287 votes, in 2007 15,619. I think the turnout for the top-up list looks a lot lower than the constituency turnout.
112 - I have no idea I’m afraid - mixed results, they were unlucky in the South (lost despite an increase in vote) if they get increases elsewhere they could still hold 4,5,6. We’ll have to wait and see.
What have we learnt so far?
In Wales particularly the Tories have done well, but not so well that they’re in any danger of having to get into bed with anyone to run the place: just what they wanted, I imagine.
In Scotland the story has to be, first, the spoilt papers - no wonder there’s been a review announced: any candidate who’s lost by, say, half the number of spoilt papers or less must be thinking in terms of going to court to have the result voided. Dunno how many seats that applies to, doubtless someone will tell me.
Second, “candidate power” - Salmond, Alexander. And anything that persuades parties to select good candidates has to be cheered to the rooftops - although the dirty secret they all share is that they can’t find anything like enough of them. Would a Michael Foot or an Enoch Powell even seek to get into Parliament to-day?
English council results in aggregate good but not stunningly so for Tories, poor but not desperately so for Labour - the party story is the poor Lib Dem result (so far). But that’s only in aggregate: very wide local variation. Again, arguably very healthy: people were voting on local factors in local elections - isn’t that as it should be? Good controlling groups re-inforced, poor ones thrown out. The academics will doubtless want to do regression analysis of these results against Council Tax levels, Audit Commission ratings etc.
I wonder, too, if the Tories haven’t done best where Cameroonies run the show locally, and worst where they still toast IDS in private. Doughty Street: come clean now
The Lib Dem web page carries a rather misleading map of last nights results dont you think?
http://www.libdems.org.uk/
Around 400 votes costed the Greens the seat
Tories make a FPTP gain and lose 2 list seats in SoS. So -1
Good grief I`m astonished by the Tories on this site - we`ve had Iraq , Cash for Honours , meltdown in the NHS etc ,etc , rammed down our throats for the last 12 months and yet the Tories have maybe managed to win 400 seats - to suggest that the local election share of the vote will be in any way replicated in a Genral Election does little crdit to the sophisticated commentators on this site .
To give you an example I live in Warrington which is a thriving Northern town with low employement and a healty demographic - during the Seventies the Tories controled the local council yet last night they actually lost one of their 6 seats leaving them with only 5 seats out of a total council of 56 members and this is just typical of many areas in the North , cetainly I can see a reduced majority come GE time for the labour party but nowhere near the certain victory posters on here seem to imagine …
Certain victory for Camerons tories that is …
Labour vote share has gone up comapred to the last locals. Hardly a disaster. Was braced for a total drubbing. It has been the worst backdrop to fight an election. Proud of what the activists have managed to acheive on the back of that.
That’s an incredible 27 (in words: twenty seven) percent swing from Labour to the SNP in the South of Scotland! Without the SNP winning a constituency! That can’t possibly be right, can it?
Labour down 21% in list vote in SoS.
100- I you put a saver on “over 55″, keep it low…
In all left/right second rounds only De Gaulle exceeded 55% (in 1965).
53.5 to 55 would be my bet and I hope Sarkozy tops the 3 million votes gap (around 54.2,47.8 assuming the same turnout than in the first round)that would make (in my opinion) the difference between a large victory and a triumph. At that level the socialist party would not be able to spin it as a “close defeat” [it worked in 1995: Jospin 47.36% was hailed a a "good result" by many media, helping him to stay the leader of the socialist party]
Landslide territory would be reached with 55% (around 20 million votes and a 4 million votes gap).
One reminder : our presidents have a much bigger popular mandate than you PM : whoever wins on Sunday will have gathered around twice the Labour vote in 2005 !!
121/122: you’ve not factored in the “Brown bounce” that will lift the Tories to greater heights as from 1 July. I have yet to speak to a single person, even Labour supporters, who thinks Brown will be any good as PM.
Wait for the list vote in North East Scotland it is huge!
Stodge OK. Mark Senior seems reasonable. I would like to know if Libs here now want leadership change. Are you satisfied with Ming.
Re: Scotland I gave up trying to understand long ago. FPTP victories I do understand, Annabel Goldie did well there.
Are results as they come in worsening Labour’s performance. Looks that way.
124 Missing South of Scotland Tory votes, in the three FPTP seats which they won alone they polled 36,562 - yet only 15,619 across the whole region on the top-up vote.
LIST RESULTS IN SOUTH OF SCOTLAND IS WRONG.
Labour and the SNP have now disappeared from the BBC result’s thingy for the South of Scotland region.
128 - So you think it was a good idea to back the SNP at 4.5 and 5 in the early hours? Even if it comes off it will be small comfort to me if the results go badly for the Greens though. Why is the SoS list result section partly blank on the BBC website now?
129. “Are results as they come in worsening Labour’s performance. Looks that way. ”
Their list vote in South of Scotland totally collapsed, but they didn’t have any list seats to defend. And they held all their FPTP seats in the region
Swings all over the place…
Does anyone know what the projected national share of the vote for Cons / Lab / LD (41/27/26 IIRC) implies for the projected share in England alone?
This is, after all, the main front for the Conservatives, despite all the optimistic noises about recovery in Wales and Scotland.
I suspect that a hidden story behind these results is that the Conservative lead in England looks impressive at first glance, but is not quite good enough. To compensate for the weakness in Scotland and Wales, the Conservatives have not only to be the winners in England (which they are on these results, of course), but VERY BIG winners.
what the hell are they doing?!
Seems they’ve withdrawn the South of Scotland result now. What a mess!
118 - I will see what happens in my own local district (Nwark and Sherwood). Very much old Tory not Cameroonie. Be interesting if they gain from NOC there.
134. Tactical voting on a sizeable scale.
O/T Sarkozy now at 0.1/1 on Betfair
Thanks Chris, that’s just what I did. Too late now I’m afraid, odds have just changed to, but there may be value still at nearly 2/1 on 53.51-55
48.00 or below 40.00
48.01 - 49.00 25.00
49.01 - 50.00 12.00
50.01 - 51.50 9.00
51.51 - 52.50 7.00
52.51 - 53.50 5.00
53.51 - 55.00 2.85
55.01 or above 3.25
Another example of how the Lib Dem challenge in the south is evaporating - the Waverley (aka SW Surrey) results - 2003 Lib 28 Con 27, 2007 Con 49 Lib 3 (!) Ind 3. Nearly a wipeout.
It wouldn’t be the first mistake on the Scottish results tonight. Earlier Sky News were reporting LD gain on Western Isles, even though they hadn’t even started counting.
Either the machines really are fooked, or the PA election wires are sending out duff info…
141. Risky business Caveman to enter at this stage
140. It does look all over doesn’t it
Here’s my take on things
Labour: - Bad night, bad results, but not meltdown. Helped by weakening in Lib Dem vote. They’ll be glad they haven’t done as poorly as some had feared.
Conservative: - Good night, some good results, gains from Labour and Lib Dems, can say they’re still advancing. Probably not the blue wipeout that some had predicted, but still a competant performance considering that they seem to have won against Labour and the Lib Dems on two fronts.
Lib Dems: - So far, an incredibly poor performance, and the story of the night. Yes, there have been some gains in certain places, but to be down by around 100 council seats so far in a midterm poll is a poor, poor result for the third party. I think it suggests a squeeze effect - voters are flocking back to the Tories and Labour. This accentuates the Tory gains but doesn’t make the Labour losses seem too bad.
97 - Kingbongo
Due to the drive to produce instant news, I think the BBC is focusing on a snapshot of the overnight results - which are obviously concentrated on (mainly) urban areas and unitary authorities. The district council results this morning will confirm a strong Conservative performance and a poor Labour result. 41% - if it is that - is close to Labour’s performance in 1994, so is comparable for where we are in the electoral cycle. Hazel Blears et all are comparing now with 1995 - which was after 16 years of a Conservative government - not 10 years of Labour - and is disingenuous to say the least.
On a generous note, credit to Nick Palmer - Nottingham was a good Labour result and inexplicable for all that!!!
121 the Tories have maybe managed to win 400 seats try 600+. I am happy for Labour activists to think it’s OK to be wiped out completely in large parts of the country. Tories control more councils than Labour in the North West and are running the East Riding of Yorkshire for the first time - doesn’t mean the next election is won, far from it. It does show though that the LD squeeze is on and the tories are slowly rebuilding in the northern marginals. The Labour MP for Chester must be wondering what post-parliamentary life will be like.
Andrea do you have a reliable breakdown for the SoS list?
Yokel. Agreed, I’ll pass at these new prices but I made sure I got at the earlier prices befor I posted. You never know who’s watching…..
144- Today’s French press include last minute turncoat declarations of support for Sarkozy from former Royal supporters…
The most high profile are Jean-Pierre Jouyet (former head of French Treasury and currently heading the very powerful Inspection des finances) Claude Allègre (former socialist minister of education, Roayl was vice-minister under him), Jacques Séguéla (the legend of French advertising, he conceived all Mitterrand and Jospin campaigns)…
Dominique Strauss-Kahn carefully avoided the media in the last two days and is already preparin a run to become the socialist party “first secretary” (i.e. leader, position currently held by François Hollande)
Rats and sinking ship springs to mind for some reason…
What’s the latest betting in Scotland. Am at work so unable to check the markets!
147: ditto the South Ribble MP. And Hyndburn, Pendle, Rossendale, Chorley, Bury North, West Lancashire - the Lancashire seats that really matter, not the no-hope ones in Manchester and Liverpool.
Hi all.
Have just read the threads (1000 + posts! Good job I read fast).
Roger,
You said early on (ie on the first thread) that “BBC project Labour up 1% and the Tories up 1%. After the last locals on the equivalent figures Labour went on to win a 60 seat General Election majority”.
It turns out that those projected national vote shares seem accurate - so where did you get your “locals on the equivalent figures” from. The Topries have only twice got into the forties since 1982 (1992, 46% (looks like a freak result) and last year, 40%). At the same point in the last Parliament, the shares were 35%/30%/27%. The closest direct comparison seems to be 1982, with 40%/29%/27% (cf todays 41%/27%/26%) - and the next election was fairly good for the Tories, as I recall…
Nick P at 8 - rather than a score draw, I’d call it a 3-1 Tory win, with Labour snatching a possibly valuable away goal. Going in to the Labour home tie (the GE in 2 or 3 years) with a Tory advantage but all to play for on the pitch.
Roger at 45
Actually, Hague reached 38, IDS reached 35, Howard reached 37 (rather than 36, 38 and 40 respectively).
100. Percentage France - Sarkozy 53.5-55.0 at Unibet: Seems many have taken the advice from Caveman. Odds now down to 2.85, IMO not worthwhile.
Betfair Sarkozy now down to 1.09 and falling. The markets declare the election more or less over
Galloglas. No, the previous weird result has disappeared.
To back on betfair SNP 2.08, Lab 1.4
1000 bar
Re: 145 - No, Matt1, 150-200 (which is where I think we’ll now finish) will be disappointing of course but not terminal - that’s when you lose 2,000 seats in a single night (see 1995).
If the old memory isn’t completely gone, the LDs lost 88 seats in 1999 so we’ve lost ground some years and picked up in other years to keep our total number of Councillors not that far removed from 1997. In the past, (1968,1977) a big swing back to the Conservatives has virtually swept the LDs away but not last night.
A small (so far) of major reverses have obscured some better performances in other areas and of course the frantic partisan spinning of the Tories is trying to turn a drama into a crisis.
99. Well done Stuart! I’ll look forward to Start Penketh MP!
142 Indeed in Horsham
2003
LD 18 seats
Con 20 seats
2007
Con 31 seats
LD 11 seats
149. Sounds perfectly fair to me.
On the locals, I think we are missing a few major points here.
1. If there is a descernible pattern of drift to the Tories where is it coming from? Is it largely Lib Dem to Tory is it direct from Labour to Tory swing voters? is its a fairly even mix
2. Once you start getting over 40% I would suggest that its hard going to pull the final few percent.
142. Not trying to make any excuses for elsewhere but SWSurrey is a special case. There was split with a number of LDs going Ind just prior to the last GE (expulsions etc). it was all personal stuff. Loads of these Inds standing this time spliting the LD vote completely everywhere and letting the Conservatives it.
It happens!
160. I think the main issue is translating 41/42 % in locals into a GE result. 42% gives a majority in most scenarios.
154- Actually the markets got the results of the debate better than the press : the press saw a draw but the markets saw a sarkozy win, just as the polls have confirmed since.
Everybody knows it’s over. The allocations of ministries by sarkozy is now the only point of interest for the high-ranking civil servants who are positioning themselves for the next two weeks…
its a bit tighter on betfair between lab and SNP
Despite a major tory breakthrough in Wales, Rhodri Morgan’s core vote strategy has helped create quite a few Labour-Tory marginals for the next general election. UKIP seemed to have thwarted the Tories in a few areas aswell, particularly the Vale of Glamorgan and a disturbing rise in the BNP vote in places.
Sorry meant not a major breakthrough!
Am I correct in thinking we havn’t had any new results for a while. When would we expect the first results through from those councils that started counting this morning - presumably from 11.30 - 12.00 onwards?
165 no I think you were right the first time - the tories have taken 4 or 5 constituency seats and come very close in others - the constituency vote share on Sky has CON 2nd, just above Plaid. Next GE will see some more Welsh tory MPs
165. You’re right Frank, UKIP did well in much of northeastern Wales - in some cases on first attempt.
The question for Lab and Con in all these new marginals is now whether it was simply a single-issue protest vote against the existence of the Assembly (which appears to result in a Lab to UKIP swing which appears in some places and may go back to Lab in a GE), or whether it was a disaffected Right vote unimpressed by Cameron (which could hamper further Tory growth in Wales) .
162. Jamie
I’ve openly said that I have my money on the Tories to win the next GE and have had money on from a long way out at some decent odds that I suspect won’t be seen again.
I’d agree that 41% or so is going to see a Tory majority but I believe that the issues of differential swings are being understimated by a lot of pundits, seat calculators etc and that some of the generally regarded consensus on how far the Tories have to be ahead are just wrong. Labour will in no way be runnng at 27% at the next GE, short of a total mess up by the much maligned Gordon.
What I think is being underestimated though is what I call the value of a vote. The Tory vote boosting by 10% in a strong Labour seat in the next GE probably isnt going to mean much because the votes may be wasted in that Labour are likely to get that seat anyway. 10% however in certain areas will see a raft of seats going Tory straight from labour.
It is those areas where it most matters that I suspect the Tories will most score in the next GE, ie where the vote has greatest value. Combine that with what I expect will be a squeeze on the Lib Dems (which we may be seeing the first signs of with this election) and I believe that the Tories will still win with a slightly smaller margin between them and Labour than many think will be required.
Whether I’ve had a great foresight or I’m way off beam, time will tell.
If Punter is about, how are you doing on the Welsh Assembly so far?