What does Scotland’s loss do for Gordon?
May 4th, 2007
Has the Chancellor what it takes to turn the party round?
So Scotland is now lost and the question must be asked about what this means to the Scotsman who looks set, within the next few weeks, to take over at Number 10?
Even though the final result is nothing like as bad as might have been feared a week or so the news within the last few minutes that the SNP is top party must cast a shadow over the man who has sought after the premiership for so long.
In spite of everything there can be few who still doubt that Gordon is going to get his promotion. The latest betting price is at 0.08/1 and that might look like a bargain in a day or two.
But what an awful moment to take over?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Who knows, Where is Gordon???, Mcavity is nowhere to be seen.
Think its a good moment to take over, Lib Dems getting squeezed no free shots at the next election.
Its make your mind up time Cameron or Brown.
There is no reason that The Conservatives have to win or Labour has to loose, in 2010.
How feasible is a SNP/Tory/Margo MacDonald coalition as between them they hold an absolute majoirty (of 1) ?
BBC - Tory gains in England now number 860. 13 councils left.
Great picture! This result has been so widely predicted that it probably wont make much difference. When Blair goes it’ll be a completely new game. i doubt it’ll do much damage to the relationship between London and Edinburgh either as it didn’t when Livingstone won London as an independent. They just have to work to-gether.
A bad hair day though for Ming. I’d worry that when Gordon takes over there might be pressure from his party to step aside just to stop them being sidelined.
PS. Is it true-as Tony Blair says-that Labour have done better than they did three years ago against Michael Howard?
Can someone explain why the pundits were so far out in their seat predictions?
5,
Surely Lib Dems have to change leader now to combat the Cameron effect.
They shouldn`t be too nice and act like Labour did by keeping Foot in 82 after Warrinington by election.
They should be ruthless to get an electable leader.
Labour doesn’t have a mandate to rule Scotland, but they rule England on Scottish votes. How many times will we hear that? Not enough times.
3 - It’s impossible. The SNP wont even sit in coalition with the Tories on local councils.
Disapointed we went down a seat up here but not horendously bad under the circumstances. Still always 2009 to look forward to!
6 - Labour has done “better” (in percentage share) but so have the Conservatives. One feels that the percentage share calculations are a bit dodgy though.
Has Rik popped in today, btw?
Wow - spent much of the campaign in Waverley! Us Tories felt we could possibly win enough to take control, but for the council to go from LD 27 CON 26 in 2003 to LD 3 CON 51 is truely sensational. Remember this was a top 3 target for the LDs in 2005 GE. Some of these wards have not been Tory for 40 years!
Would we say the 40/27/26 vote projection is wrong, then?
I’m delighted to find myself living in Conservative Lincoln today. 27 years of Labour rule ended! Fantastic - the air is that bit fresher this evening.
O/T. If i just heard right, Radio 4 news have said that a Downing St spokesperson had confirmed Tony Blair will make his announcement on Thur next week.
Paddy Power have priced this date at 4/5 (1.80) in their Blair resignation market. Free money (?) but you may have to be quick
So, SNP/LD/Green majority (65), Unionist grand coalition, or a minority administration?
14 - dodgy’s probably a bad choice of word.
Steven @ 15 - feels great doesn’t it! Might even start taking my hols in Blackpool now!
I’m wondering - why is Tony Blair referring to the plank that Labour is being made to walk as “a springboard”?
13
What odds would you have got on that, even a tenner would have been enough to retire on. Gt result
I’m going to allow myself to feel ever so slightly smug in running a campaign that bucked the national trend, especially as my target candidates got nearly 60% of the vote on a very high turnout (54%)
1
‘Where is Gordon???’
He always does the dissapearing act when there is bad news,somebody needs to tell him that he can’t do that when he is PM!
Lets us embolden ourselves in the new landscape that offers us the chance of freedom and security, truth and justice, after 10 years of darkness and despair.
And I hope I get the much deserved apologies on the Scottish Election from some overly harsh critics and sceptics.
Justice is slow, but sure. The SNP won - no gloating, just humbleness.
Hey look at the electoral arithmetic. It’s almost imposssible to put together a majority coalition.
The only two-party coalition that adds up is SNP-Labour, which everyone had assumed was politically impossible. Failing that, it’s either persuade BOTH Tories and Lib Dems into the same coalition with SNP or Labour, also unlikely since everyone had assumed no-one would talk to the Tories.
Or, it’s one of SNP & Lab, one of LD & Con, and one two or three out of Greens and Independent, and even then that only adds up to 65,66 or 67, giving both negotiation problems across three parties, and whipping problems because of the small majority.
A minority coalition government is surely impossible, and it would be far too weak. Could we get an SNP minority government, putting together majorities issue by issue?
Most likely SNP-LD-Green with a majority of 1?
20,
Because he knows how to win General Elections ,and it could still be possible to win a fourth, if the fight is still in the Labour Party to achieve it, like the Conservatives did in 92.
16. Caveman. Where you lead, I will follow.
I did quite well on the Scots parliament election thanks to you noticing the initial arb and then levelling my position as the polls moved against the SNP. Close run thing. I owe you a pint.
Conservatives could end up gaining over 1,000 seats. The most momentous day in the last 20 years in England, 50 years in Scotland, and 100 years in Wales.
Finally got the Broxtowe results - took so long as they spent all morning verifying the votes, and there were seven recounts in different places. Many points:
(Broxtowe constituency): Lab gain 1 from LD, lose 2 to LD; lose 2 to Tories (so I lose my two £5 charity bets made here - a Tory in Kimberley won one of 3 seats from nowhere on a big personal vote).
(Ashfield constituency but Broxtowe borough): Lab lose 1 each to Tories, LDs and BNP.
no overall control as before - the Tories are largest party at 17 seats but fel lwell short of their objective of control (needing 24), partly because of failing to unseat two pro-Labour independents.
The key battlegrounds were Beeston W, which as predicted was a scrum with LDs beating Lab in the end by 70, with Tories unexpectedly third; Stapleford SW which we gained from the LDs with a 20-vote margin; and two split wards where we lost a councillor each. The Ashfield Tory gain was with a majority of 1 over the LibDems. The BNP gain was comfortable, alas, partly as there were two independent anti-BNP cnadidates as well as ours.
Nationally, the result seems to me passable - not the frightful start for Gordon that many of you were hoping!
28. I don’t think so. Your maths is wrong - 900 is still possible, but unlikely.
24,
The SNP won the most seats by one.
Not a working majority, so should be given a change to form a minority government , good luck.
A thought about the outcome in Scotland, The SNP and Lab got around 30% each ( SNP slightly more ) so the result is actually a good reflection of the votes cast - 45 seats being approx 34.6%. Compare this to Westminster where Lab got a 60 odd seat majority on just over 35% of the vote. All this despite complaints about Labour’s over representation in Glasgow.
The only option I can see is for a minority SNP administration, I cant see how the SNP could do a deal with the tories as part of the SNP pitch is to appeal to a decidedly left wing anti tory segment of the electorate ( even if another substantial group of support are tarten tories ). I suppose a deal with the Libs is possible but that would still leave a minority administration. We could see a wide grouping of the SNP, Libs, Greens and Margot MacDonald but how stable would that be? It might be interesting though to see how a green party would fare with its first experience of power in the UK.
The best option for Labour seems to be to a spell in opposition in Edinburgh. Two years or so of watching the twists and turns of minority coalition government should help to ensure good results for Labour come the general election and a return to government in Scotland in the not too distant future.
21
If you had tried to get odds - even the bookies would have rung for the men in white coats.
The Tory performance in Wales almost makes me smile as much. We are good 2nd places in loads of seats….we are now even polling well in bridgend amongst others. There is scope for some great prospects at the next GE. Shame we did not get the Vale of Glam this time though.
Incidentally, the Conservatives have more council seats in England than all other parties, major and minor, and independents, put together
why didn’t LD Gordon MSP also go for the list? If she had done so (and assuming she would have been ranked in the top 3 along with Stephen and Rumbles), she would have got in.
Tory Alex Fergusson has gamble in deciding not to stand in the list, but he got it right as he won very easily his previously ultra-marginal seat
Karen Shirron’s failure to win Aberdeen Central target seat costed her the chance to go to Holyrood.
It has done better for other SNP candidate failing in target seats. For ex Jamie Hepburn failed in K&C but he will go to Holyrood thanks to list seats
Was Cunninghame North the most marginal victory?
I note that Ochil was very close. I thought that the national trend would have made it more confortable for SNP even without Reid
Theoretical majority (65) combinations with the SNP:
SNP/LD/Green (65)
Nick Palmer you have got to be kidding? Scotland a Labour Kingdom for 50 years has now fallen. Labour is set to lose almost 1000 seats and you sitting on a majority of just over 3000 in a key marginal and you try to fool us by saying ” not the frightful start for Gordon that many of you were hoping!”
I think you may need to find another line of work these past 10 years have made you confused. Hopefully we can help you along come the next election.
Nick Clegg: “we are the only party fighting in rural AND urban areas” lol
Well I didn’t quite get the number of seats right but I hope people managed to get on the SNP at 7+ this afternoon.
These results are truly stunning for the Conservatives and disastrous for the Lib Dems. I remember the usual Lib Dem suspects being scathing at those of us who suggested that they might lose more than 100 seats net and setting a bar of 700 gains for the Cons to claim success!
Well the results are now:
Cons +861
Lab -468
LD - 252
Across Berkshire the Lib Dems have been anihilated - see West Berks and Windsor & Maidenhead!
In Reading the LDs consolation was picking up two seats off Labour. BUt they slipped back in several other wards they had been in second place.
ITV news have just said that 41/27/26 translates into Tory Majority of 19.
H&K suggests 20 but Baxter gives Tory Majority 96
Why the disparity and who is correct. Given that 41/27/26 is pretty well the 1983 percentages which gave the tories a majoirty of 140 I’m inclined to side with Baxter.
There is a rumour that the results are so bad for Labour that there will have to be a serious candidate to oppose Brown.
May be today is the day that Brown lost the leadership election. A week is a long time in politics.
Nick you know what, I really like you.
Not just because you are indeed a personable bloke and you have the courage to stand up here under your real name and leave yourself open to the old slings and arrows, but also because you do, every once in a while, bring a real smile to my face.
How on earth can you honestly stand there and say that Tory gains of almost twice as many seats as most predicted, Labour losses over 450 seats and losing the Scottish elections is a ‘passable result”?
Labour got stuffed mate. If I were Gorden I seriously be starting to wonder if the lecture circuit might not be a better career move.
PS. Come to the Newark show on May 27th and I’ll buy you a pint. You can even declare it on your members interests
29
‘Nationally, the result seems to me passable - not the frightful start for Gordon that many of you were hoping!’
Losing your monopoly in Scotland,majority in Wales,hundreds of council seats in England and a third world electoral system in Scotland where over 100,000 votes are discarded is passable ???
Can this rumour be traced back to a post on politicalbetting.com at 6.43pm on 4th May?
Nick, that kind of spin won’t help. It’s been a very bad day for Labour. You’ve lost Scotland for the first time since god-knows-when. Your council losses (standing at almost 500) are very bad, and would have been even worse if the Liberal Democrats hadn’t had so bad a night. The Tories are set to gain around 900 seats, far more than even the most generous commentators had been willing to give them.
So no, sorry, I don’t believe it’s any kind of “springboard” as Blair wants to make out. It is “frightful” for Labour, and things can only get more uncertain for them as a Nationalist government sets up shop in Holyrood and an unpopular Prime Minister in waiting attempts to put an end to all this discontent and unpopularity.
41. I believe H&K adds lump sun swings while Baxter uses percentages. e.g. Say Party A went from a national share of 20% to 30%. Thats a lump sum increase of 10%, and a percentage change of 50% increase.
In a ward which last time got 40% for party A, H&K would predict 40% + 10% = 50%. Baxter would predict 40% x 150% = 60%.
Personally, I think Baxters more reliable, but its probably somewhere between the two.
Frankly, if Labour’s results aren’t as bad as they could have been then it just gives everyone a reason to look forward to next years elections
46
‘So no, sorry, I don’t believe it’s any kind of “springboard” as Blair wants to make out.’
I would have thought it was more of a trap door than springboard.
Rik W, a very good result indeed in Reading.
For Labour, this was a result along the lines of 1996 for the Conservatives, rather than 1995.
40,
Have to agree, Cameron must be hoovering up Lib Dem voters, surely the hierarchy of the Lib dems will wake up soon, or maybe not.
The hope of PR for UK GE could end with Ming, for another generation.
47 - my understanding is that Baxter uses a “lump” for parties going up, and percentages for parties going down, or something like that.
41. Wells would give a Tory majority of 47. However, Kinnock got 45% at the same point in the cycle, but lost in 1992. If the Tories fell back as much, they’d be looking at about 31% next time….
What Ming really needs now is another by-election. Sedgefield, anyone? (though that WOULD be a big ask!)
Congratulations to Dr Adam Pringle, who won as an independent in Telford, with a campaign based on the themes of:
“The government has wasted billions of pounds of NHS money(on NPfIT, NHSDire, CfISSA, ISTCs), is permanently damaging medical training (MMC,MTAS, replacing excellence with minimal competence), and is distorting clinical priorities with micromanagement by fiddled targets.”
Telford isn’t that far from Kidderminster, and you will be hearing a lot more from Dr Pringle by the time the general election comes round. Put your bets on now.
52. Fair enough… my fault for trying to seem knowledgable.
Anyway, the last two council results means the Conservatives result extended for the remaining 10 councils would mean a gain of 900 seats. Its going up and down for every new result though.
42. Reid wouldn’t be drawn on Sky today. He said “wait for my announcement next week..”
53. The difference is that Cameron will continue to push a centrist course. Unlike Kinnock who revealed his class warrior instincts at the last minute, which cost him the election.
45. Anyone who followed my recommendation on the SNP made money. I recommend again. Watch and wait.
May be Milliband now regrets a statement he made several weeks ago. Too bad he fell for the Brownite propaganda.
Had Milliband stood now, he would be a shoe-in.
27. Glad to be of assistance. I just wish I’d got the £16 that someone got on at 19/1 on the SNP this afternoon before the price tightened. That would have been the icing on the cake!
The story below from yesterday seems to support what i thought i just heard on the news, with an announcement on PM/leader on Thur and one on an MP on Fri, but obviously the PP punt isn’t risk free.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6618389.stm
here is an example of a springboard to success if i understand Blair correctly - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDpw2rtUWMU
59 - How’s your sego Royal prediction coming along.
58. Yep. Kinnock was doing well until the campaign started. It then all started to unravel for Labour. Quickly. Culminating of course, in the utterly cringeworthy Sheffield Rally and the last few days of the campaign when Labour swanned about as if they were simply *expecting* to be the new government in a few hours time…
… they were too complacent. Complacency is not a trait I associate with Cameron.
53. The difference is Labour only scored 35% of the national vote at the last GE!!!
The Tories are the only party in 6 years (2001 - Labour 40%) to score 40% or above! Cameron is no kinnock!!!
The other problem for labour is there huge shrinking in local govt north of the border due to PR and obviously the fact that the SNP is unlikely to loose all the FPTP seats they picked up yesterday!
Adrian at 37: um, the loss is not nearly 1000 but under 500. But yes, maybe pleasure that the local Tories were foiled from coming even close to control is influencing me more than it should - I’ve only recently come out of the count.
Richard: a tempting offer!
Bet winners: where do I send those fivers? Harry H told me but I’ve forgotten, and I don’t think John O named his charity.
and this could be a mixed bag - http://www.thewormman.com/international/images/activator1.jpg
fertile ground for improvement!
I wonder how much SNP’s win here will affect their increase in seats for Westminster at the next election. Labour will face the impossible task of fighting a left-wing SNP in Scotland and a centre-right Conservative party in England.
Considering we are talking about the notional national vote calculated by Rawlings and Thresher can anyone recall their forecast for this year (couldn’t be as awful as last years but would like to know how much trust we can put in their calculations)
41. To be fair on the vote i fiddled around with it keeping the tories at 40 and boosting labour into the low 30’s and dropping the LD’s back to 20% ish. That said there is no written rule that all LD support from local elections will co-elese around labour. Particularly as Brown is less likely to attract these voters.
In addition, the huge increase in some LD seats of Tories obviously means that the tories can get more help in electionering in the future.
61 - ROFL, but I don’t think Prescott will be the next leader.
Should Nick Robinson be hung, drawn and quartered?
42. Will. Perhaps you could check out the rumour with Herbert Propre and Will Herbert?
The offer is real Nick. It is the beer festival that weekend. I might even see if Pat Mercer wants to join us though I am not sure he is talking to me at the moment as I have been nasty about him in the local papers on local issues.
These results are superb for David Cameron. Nearly 900 gains is certainly at the top end of any predictions made in the last few weeks.
I suggest that Nick Palmer would be wise to study them in detail as I fear his analysis is wildly optimistic and buys into the the “Once Blair is gone, everything will be beer and skittles with Gordon…” approach familiar to many Labour MPs, which borders on delusional.
I think the Tories have been all smoking some of Cameron’s wacky backy. Guys- this is as good as it will get for you. Last time Labour fought these seats it was on the crest of a gulf war success, and facing the most hapless leader in memory.
The results last night show that the Tories have not the proverbial hope in hell to win a general election majority in the UK. The best that you can hope for is the most seats, and even this seems too steep a challenge.
Re 29 Nick, this is where you and I part company: interpretation of results and the political tides. This is not passable for Lab. Overall, it’s bad and looks a lot worse now that nearly all results are in than it did based on the early declarations. Not quite completely awful; not hopeless in terms of stopping a Tory majority. But very problematic.
75. Tyson, just please please promise us you will be around this board during the next General Election. I can’t wait!
Canterbury & Whitstable constituency result:
Con 13574 (43.8%) LD 9824 (31.7%) Lab 4539 (14.6%) Grn 1233 (4.0%) Oth 1831 (5.9%)
Con 19 (+1) LD 14 (+3) Lab 2 (-4)
What is the explanation for the fact that the Conservatives have surged towards the end of the vote counting? Is it that the councils with only 1/3 of the seats up were counted first, and the all-ups later, meaning more council changes?
65 - I’ve just been ‘moderated’ - Mike obviously doesn’t agee with my choice :(. I’ll try again. Nick, Many thanks - a fiver to Amnesty International (aw, go on, double it
would be appreciated.
This shows that Blair was right to call his departure date for after these elections- the sting will be taken out, and Brown will start with a clean slate.
I am now far more optimistic than I have been for a long time that the Tories will be out of power for at least one more term- hopefully long enough for their superficial unity to be pulled apart again, and the creatures from the night to re-emerge. Labour will unify behind Brown now- its ambition for power is still there.
75. I Know what your saying but two things - Brown is going to be caught between a pincer action.
The Scotish dynamic is going to inflience the next UK election far more than is generally realised. Firstly if Salmond becomes first minister, he is going to be dictating the agenda north of the border. If Labour and the other parties vote him down then that will just boost his standing. If Salmond does well in office then the SNP are going to catch more votes - new people converting to the product.
In England people are already against Brown and the percieved lack of fairness in the legislation of English laws will do Brown no good. Plus the Tories are much stonger in the areas close to where they need break throughs in England. That’s where most of the seats they need to form a government are!
An interesting thing would be next GE in the uk, if the SNP hold on to their 21 seats won yesterday. Whilst i don’t discount the possibility of a hung parliament. What are these potential 21 SNP MP’s going to do for english laws - likely to sit on there hands by all accounts because salmond thinks Scot’s MP’s should not be voting on English laws.
I think you need to readjust your conception of the political landscape, the mountain that cameron has to climb up has just been changed from a 15,000 ft to 4,000 ft - still hard byt not as hard as it was before!!!
I have to agree with Tyson. There was no motivation whatever for Labour voters to come out to vote. I personally knew several who will certainly vote at a General Election who just didn’t feel inclined to give the government a pat on the back! On the other hand Tory voters had every motivation to vote and probably did. If this count only gives the Tories a 19 seat lead then complacency is the last thing I’d recomend!.
tjm- of course- I think there will be many blue humble pies to be scoffed- the last election was a real hoot as Howard tried to sound upbeat after experiencing a rout worse than Foot’s in 83, the next one looks to be even funnier
67.”I wonder how much SNP’s win here will affect their increase in seats for Westminster at the next election. Labour will face the impossible task of fighting a left-wing SNP in Scotland ”
In 2005 GE SNP didn’t do very well outside target seats and in many of them fell. So that produced a not so big number of Lab/SNP marginals. IIRC there’s just a Westminster constituency where Lab is defending a majority of less than 10% over SNP (Ochil). The next Lab/SNP seat is Dundee West with a 14.6% majority (today’s swing in DW would produce a close result though)
Labour may have ambition, but I don’t see why that will make the public give you another term.
Glasgow Council
Lab 45 seats
SNP 22 (all of their candidates?)
Greens 5
LD 5
Con 1
Solidarity 1
79. rural seats?
From a couple of threads ago:
370 - argh. That result was a bit gutting actually as it meant the Lib Dems just stayed ahead of the Greens as 2nd largest group. Will you stay at home next year? How much would it take to make it worth your while…
by Neil May 4th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
Hi Neil - I was only in Norwich as I was working at the UEA for the day - so you could always have it closed before the next elections! I hadn’t realised that the implications were wider than the ward. Comiserations - but I was due some good news - first time I’ve campaigned anywhere we won.
Having just caught up on the results, congratulations to the Tories - 850 gains was right at the top end of what was being suggested, and some spectacular breakthroughs. I’m getting bored of this ‘no Tories in the North’ line, the facts show it’s simply not true.
I guessed the day before that it wouldn’t be good for the Lib Dems, when I caught Newsnight the night before for the first time in ages and saw Vince Cable being interviewed. I have a lot of time for Vince, but he came across like a man facing the gallows, and I feared that he knew something we didn’t. I suspect now he did! In fact the LD losses are even worse than they appear as there were some superb gains to offset some of the losses. While ‘mixed bag’ is probably the most optimistic way of looking at this, we do need some freshness in the party - not necessarily a change of personnel but a new approach, some of our campaign materials look dated and unchanged, and a new emphasis on getting supporters motivated by coming up with principled and distinctive policy.
SNP - I actually think they should have done much better than they did, and it is a moral victory only. For Labour to hold on as well as they did is some achievement. I suspect there will be a few pb.c articles coming up on the coalition possibilities.
Off to Scotland for a few days break now, so congratulations to all newly elected posters, even those in Reading, and I’ll see if they’ll let me back into England if Scotland haven’t declared war on it by the middle of next week.
That picture of Gordon is not from today - he is in hiding.
When I left the office the Tories were running at reported gains of a few hundred. Now they are sitting at gains of 800+. I have to say thats astonishing and I have no idea what happened in teh space of about 6 hours.
Two points come to mind though:
Re: Scotland. If the SNP do lead a coalition it’ll be a pain in the arse for Gordon but now this is done Gordon has one big target, the next GE. I do not expect Labour to take such an equivalent fall in Scotland at that election short of an atrocious government performance under Gordon. I say that as anything but a Labour supporter.
Re: England. That the Tories have been gaining well without a substantial percentage increase overall should be noted. The bare figures are less important than the concept of value of vote, i.e. that a vote in some constituencies matters more than votes in others. The Tory performance probably bodes well for them getting the best of those more valuable votes come next GE, particularly at the expense of the Lib Dems as well as Labour.
Congrats to the SNP. To actually get ahead of Labour, who did appear to have managed to get their vote out on the day is quite an achievement. Not that I’m a fan of the SNP.
Martin Smith: yes, well, see my further comment above. But I’m only confident talking about my own patch, and as there was a good deal of scepticism about my canvass reports I’ll note that they were nearly all from Beeston W (which we lost on a small swing) and Stapleford SW (which we gained on a small swing), and these turned out as predicted to be the two key swing wards - so not that far out after all.
If a GE were held tomorrow I agree I’d narrowly lose - but it won’t take a huge recovery to change that position, which is why the local Tories were looking a bit down today. The Labour landslide in Nottingham didn’t do any harm either…
87. The Tories have a seat in Glasgow? Have they always had one or two in recent years or is that new?
That reminds me of an episode of Rab C Nesbitt…
84. Well, my predictions is that the Conservatives will get around 330-340 seats at the next GE, and I’ll definitely be here either on the day or in the days following it. You make your honest prediction and we’ll see who’s closest.
Creepy. How come Gordon Brown can be PM of England when so much of the legislation passed by his government will have no impact on his constituents in Scotland, where so many matters are devolved? This is not democracy. He will be a non-accountable PM to the electorate in England.
Brown can be UK Prime Minister, but the UK parliament needs paring down DRASTICALLY if the UK is to continue, and we need a national parliament for England with our own First Minister.
At the moment, people can die in England for want of medication available on the NHS in Scotland and the people of England are discriminated against on a whole range of issues.
We need equality!! Those in politics in England are far too complacent and uncaring about the lower levels of society of society, worst hit by anti-England discrimination from this “UK” Government, and David Cameron wastes no opportunity to butter up the Scots and make anti-English speeches in Scotland.
“What does Scotland’s loss do for Gordon?”
If I was head of strategy in the Brownite camp I would have my head in my hands today, this has got to be the worse case scenario that Brown could possible face arriving in No10. And before the Brown fans jump up and down, these voters were not giving Blair one last kick out the door because it would have been wasted as he is already there. They were giving the Labour party a very strong message right across the whole of the UK about their recent record.
With the biggest pre coronation trailor in political history the voters don’t seem keen to give Brown a good luck card as he starts his new job.
67.I think the SNP will fall back in the next GE in much the same way as others did up here. If it is a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives I would be very worried if I was a Libdem.
Don’t underestimate just how many Conservatives, Labour and Libdem supporters lent the SNP their vote for Holyrood.
I am perplexed. Obvoiusly Parliamentary seats in the North West which have Lib Dem MPs are inhabited by a different breed of people, since across the board there were several Lib Dem gains from the Tories and Labour - and no losses at all.
Perhaps the container-load of those special glasses which, when worn, persuade one that David Cameron is not the re-incarnation of Tony Blair with the same mixture of rabid populism and vacuous nonsense, was hijacked on its way up here?
91. The huge increase in seats with an unchanged share of the vote means the Conservatives are picking up moderates from the other parties whilst the right-wingers are staying at home. This will surely be a huge plus in the next election.
Channel 4 have been doing number crunching and say the swing to Cameron was much lower in the North and Midlands (7%) versus the South (11%), and also saying Kinnock did a lot better in 1990.
John O: that’s fine. I’ll give it to the local Beeston branch if that’s OK - I’ll tell them why and it’ll cheer them up (the Labour councillor who lost to the LibDems was a supporter).
Brown is finished before he’s even started. Even Major managed to win an election - it’s increasingly clear that Brown will not. His premiership will probably be ranked alongside the likes of Bonar Law’s.
One of the most interesting election days for a long time. And the potential for quite a bit of wrangling in the days/weeks to come.
Does anyone have accurate figures for the share of the vote in Scotland for regional and constituency votes? And the total number of votes that were spoiled/not valid?
The decision to combine the AMS of the parliament election with the STV system for the local government election, and to combine the regional and constituency votes on one ballot paper, must surely be reviewed. I hope that the SNP victory doesn’t deflect from the fact that the it has been a very dark day in Scotland for the democratic process.
25 seats to get for 900 gains.. 9 councils left, it’s just possible????
SNP have apparently (and amazingly) picked up 14 seats in Edinburgh. Looks like the Lib Dems will be the largest party with 16.
I know it’s not much to feel smug about but my asserion that an ‘as you were’ result of -250 for the Lib Dems has come about. Tories done a bit better than my +750 gains, but really the only winners of the night are the SNP.
Be interesting to see how some of the numpties will get on in government…
Martin Day- a far more realistic assessment of things- I think strategically the Tories can go upto 250 seats with their present strategy, after then they are really scratching around.
Labour can probably hang on to 250 without breakig a sweat- the next 50 are winnable, but at 300 they have to go foraging in middle England, and midland suburbs, Thames gateway, and south suburbs- where they will meet a strengthened Tory party. Brown has to make a realistic assessment of his prospects to hold Tony Blair’s coalition together- which secured parts of middle england.
The LD’s can hang onto 55 of their seats if they keep to some sort of discipline.
My preferred option would be a Lab minority govt supported by the LD’s indirectly. And I think our friend from Broxtowe will still be a sitting MP. I think this is by far the most likely possibility
Any indication of how much the turnout in Scotland is up from 2003’s 49.4%?
“I think strategically the Tories can go upto 250 seats with their present strategy, after then they are really scratching around”.
I’d say 250 was pre-Cameron - now, 280-300 is eminently achievable.
106. 51.8%
105. So for the Conservative of seats its my 335 vs your 250. May the best man win!
“Conservative no. of seats” I meant.
tjm- my honest prediction
Tories 261 (36)
Lab 304 (34)
LD’s 55 (21)
others 40 something
This will still be an OK election for the Tories- they will claim the democratic mandate, and winge on about the west lothian question and Brown being Scottish. The problem is that Jo public wouldn’t care.
104. “SNP have apparently (and amazingly) picked up 14 seats in Edinburgh”
12 seats for SNP in Edinburgh.
LD 17
Lab 15
SNP 12
Con 11
Green 3
Here in Bedford we have the wonder of electronic counting - and guess what we are still waiting.
Tories have made one or two gains and so have the Lib Dems. The big one we are waiting for is our elected Mayor contest.
I have to agree with Tyson and Roger. For the Conservatives to gain a mere 900 seats and 38 councils is truly appalling - on a par with Michael Foot’s performance in 1983. It’s laughable that they can pretend that winning more seats than every other party combined is a good result. If they had any chance of winning the next election, they’d have gained Liverpool, Glasgow, Easington, Wear Valley, and Durham. But of course, they failed miserably.
tjm- I am a bit more charitable to the Tories- I am sure that they will do enough to hold onto DC- any less than 250, and he will have to go.
105. Yes there is merit on those figures until you look at 1/
The tories will be on 214 or there abouts. I would think the tories could pull in another 35 seats just by the tatical voting stopping or even being reversed due to the likely “new politics”.
2/ The tories have risen in % of the vote from comparative local elections to a higher share of the vote.
3/ Time for a change.
Andrea That doesn’t include the spoiled papers, I suppose. Add on 100,000 compared with a much lower figure last time and it does make a difference!
101. Bonar Law won the 1922 election and only left office because he was terminally ill. Callaghan, Douglas-Home, Balfour and Lord Rosebery on the other hand have the rather less distinguished record of played one, lost one.
112. Given the closeness of the result - and the good weather on Thursday - its a very small increase on 2003.
114: Absolutely. After the shameful result of only getting control of five times more councils than the government, David Cameron should resign immediately.
sean Fear- I hope that you revert back to your objecticve self in your local election commentary. Tongue in cheek is not your style.
Anyway, would you or anyone else have expected annything less from Roger or myself? I found out last night that I once lived on the same street Roger is living now, so we share a number of other things in common.
Have a nice bank holiday weekend all. Maybe catch up to share my sorrow with my Sego losses!!
Tyson @ 105, You argue your case in a spirited fashion, but I find it hard to believe that the prospect of merely hanging on to their current seats in order indirectly to support a minority Labour government will be a good motivation to the Lib Dems to “keep their discipline”.
Lib Dems all but wiped out in leiceser…paying the price of years of infighting…
120. One difficulty of comparing councils under control (or wards won, for that matter) is that they’re very far from all being the same - one large Met might be the same size as perhaps a dozen district councils. Does anyone know how the figures look in terms of population governed by councils under majority control?
re 92 Nottingham area was obviously a good patch and there were a surprisingly (if still modest) number of these. Here in Brighton, Lab 24 to 13 seats in one go. And it could have been worse had it not been for a very good ground game in at least a couple of wards which held back a bit of the Blue/Green tide. The Tories were a few votes from taking outright control and, as it is, have half the seats if the one (ex-Tory) independent goes with them. It’s time to do some seriously listening.
On the other hand, as I posted while you were at your count, it’s worse for the LDs. They were not expecting this and are going to be stuck to explain it or doing anything much. Lab morale and activity, I am pretty sure, will soon be on the up in many places. Just look at Hastings…or Nottingham… or Luton for what can be done. Question is, given the membership and candidate numbers, in just how many places have Lab got what it takes to get out, engage and deliver.
Scottish councillors after 30 councils out 32
SNP 324
Lab 279
LD 140
Con 130
Green 8
SSP 1
Other 190
Solidarity 1
99 Rod Crosby
Looks a mixed bag in the North West for Cameron doesn’t it. Some of the results were very impressive e.g.
South Ribble +24 (44/55 seats)
Wyre +11 (45/55 seats)
Blackpool +13 to win council
and yet in Sefton and the Wirral, no progress……..
The obvious dividing line is the influence of Liverpool.
29 - Clearly Broxtowe was not too bad for Labour, though of course the Tories there may point out they are the largest party and polled the most votes. But in Broxtowe given the Tories were saying there they were going to take control, I guess the result is passable there.
As for Tom Levitt in High Peak, Gillian Merron in Lincoln, Mark Todd in Derbyshire South, Judy Mallaber in Amber Valley, Liz Blackman in Erewash, David Taylor in NW Leicestershire and Vernon Coaker in Gedling however. Maybe not so much, all are facing new or renewed Tory councils, all have been defeated by the Tories, all in East Midlands marginal seats, maybe not so passable for them.
114 - Probably Blaenau Gwent and Tower Hamlets as well. Can’t rely on just Labour seats.
Re Broxtowe - do we know whether Nick Palmer had to pay out on his bet? I think that a £10 donation to the Cats Protection league is at stake.
118. Okay, maybe if he’s lucky he’ll just make it into Callaghan’s league.
Someone quoted the now amazing figure for the number of councils without a Lab member.
Here’s another ‘quiz question’ with a surprising answer given the overall results: What’s the net gain in Tory seats in Bristol, Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield and Nottingham?
Reading East constituency result:
Cons 40.3%
LD 28.4%
Lab 21.7%
Green 7.4%
UKIP 1.9%
re 134 and West?
131 It’s been done, Mike. Whatever else might be said about NickP, he is no Monolulu!
It’s a two horse race says Conservative councillor Rik W .
130.”Probably Blaenau Gwent ”
well, they almost caught 4th place yesterday. The gap between their last place and 4th place is norrowing. it’s a clear sign!
135 - I dont have all the Reading West, West Berks wards and results, so I dont know!
137 - the Lib Dems tried that in my ward - and lost!!!
It is interesting to note that it was the LDs that went negative in my campaign and it rebounded on them. I had a lot of comments on the doors yesterday that people didnt like Gareth Epps’ (LD PPC)personal attack on me - hehe!
131 - We do, and like the Hon Gentleman he is, he will (actually the moggies would have benefitted had he won; in the event, humans can sleep a little safer).
139 Yes but they cut the deficit from last year of 701 to 450 odd not bad as you say they fell back in most Reading wards .
Seats and councils are what matters in local elections, not percentage of the vote’.
Not sure if that has been mentioned, but what about the pollsters? ICM appear to be the clear victor in Scotland, with an average error of 1.6% on constituency vote and a lead error of only 1%. Yougov’s average error was 2.8% and lead error of 5%. Populus 3.2% and 3% respectively.
On regional vote, ICM did even better with 1.5% average and 1% lead error. Populus did great with 1.3% and 1% while Yougov have got to be disappointed with 1.8% and lead error of 3%.
Congratulations to ICM, it seems.
142 One shouldn’t get too worked up about the BBC’s projection, which is an artificial exercise.
BTW I was amused to see one Conservative in Sedgefield polled precisely 0 votes.
Re 143 ICM were better…but also probably luck. YouGov’s average error was higher but still within bounds of ‘reasonable’.
Is there a website where I can get the individual constituency result *easily*? The BBC website can’t be copy-and-pasted, and the Ceefax has only got the percentage (!) not the numbers.
142 both count but for different reasons, In the New Labour bunker, Bliar is saying it’s not all that bad, whilst directing non existent armies of New Labour luvvies. meanwhile McCcavity Brooooooooon is waiting for the bomb to go off in the bunker, whilst trying to negotiate cwith the Allies to fight against the real enemy, the Bliarites, Shades of 1944.
144 - In Tony Blair’s ward, apparently.
I’m having a bit of difficulty understanding the various interpretations/spin people have on the English results:
CON: People seemed to be expecting 500-800 gains and +20-30 councils. Actual gains 800-900 and +35-40 councils, so top of expectations and pretty good, at the least.
LAB: People expecting 600-900 losses and 5-10 councils lost. Actual losses 450-650 and 5-10 councils lost, so a poor night, but certainly not as bad as it could have been.
LD: People expecting flat to 200 gains and flat to +10 councils . Actual result 200-300 losses and around 5 councils lost, so worse than almost all predictions - pretty horrible.
I know I’m a bit of a novice compared to all the experts around, but please someone tell me where I am wrong on this?
I couldn’t help laughing at the notion that Blair’s parting gift to Brown is a ’springboard’. In the words of the old joke, if it wasn’t for the noose around his neck he’d have broken both his legs.
149. Often a nice simple non-expert analysis is perfectly correct and the big sweep picture just as important and significant than the detail.
In this case I wouldnt trust the apparent experts with figures as patently clear as you have laid out. They’ll only muddy the waters unncessarily.
Re: 145. I think they were all quite good performances, especially on 2nd vote, but it seems churlish to say the ‘winner’ was lucky. If this were a general election, would be find average errors around or above 3% acceptable?
149 That’s about right.
East Northants has become a one party state after Labour lost its last three councillors. Now Tory 39, Others 0.
I noticed that Blair’s interview had Tony giving the game away at times. He looked bewildered and a bit panicked at times. A bit like saddam, just before they hung him!!!
I have seen this once before in 2005 - when things were looking a bit more knife edged. I don’t believe a word the bloke says but you have to admire his acting skills!!!
You can look at the results in two ways A) they were not as bad for Labour as people thought or B) given the fact that last year there was Black Tuesday - Prescott, Patricia Hewitt and was it Jowell??!!! I mean things could not really have been worse for an election.
This year by comparison it was relatively calm for the GOVT - especially the last two weeks. So why did Labour not do better? I mean everything is waiting for Blair to get out of NO.10 and he has pre-announced that more times than it was worth. He leaves the Labour party in a much worse state than when he found it and the tide is going against Labour.
In some of my comments above i think i was being to objective. THis really is a very bad result for Labour.
I have looked at Broxtowe - firstly the council website is not the best and going on two wards is not really a very good indicator of Labour/ Tory preferences. But i don’t live there, so i will have to give the benifit of the doubt to the Broxtowe one!
Two Rogers…
“If you want to give Blair a kicking and you’re unenthused by Cameron-which seems to be the plat du jour -there really isn’t anywhere else to go! One of the stories of the night I suspect-Ming on the March! Libs to get between 28-30%
by roger May 1st, 2007 at 6:36 am”
“re lib Dem result.
Likely share 26% but good news is 2nd place in share.
Seats becase so amy councils are all up in south net los of 150+
of seats to Lib Dems
But key fact is that main message on Friday/saturday will be huge success of Tories and SNP in Scotland.
Council seats net losses in spite of the odd high profile gain like Hull.
Overall Lib dems going backwards in locals for first time in many years.
Roger H”
105: ” And I think our friend from Broxtowe will still be a sitting MP”
You heard it here first folks, Nick Palmer is doing a chicken run!
I assume that’s what you must mean?! Broxtowe can’t stay Labour after this surely….
I think the tories taking Roxburough and berwickshire is an interesting development.
I said ‘wait and see’ on the Sarko v Sego. Sego now has no chance. Back Sarko with everything. 8% is a good return for just a weekend.
The Welsh assembly seats are identical to the new GE seats.
If yesterday had been a GE in Wales, the seat movement would have been:
Lab -5
PC +4
Con +2
LD -1
On new GE boundaries if Labour lose 25 seats they lose their majority. I can’t see how they could possibly afford to lose 5 seats in Wales.
149: pretty fair assessment as I see it MikeG. The only point I’d add from a LD prespective is that some of our gains, such as Rochdale, Hull etc, are in key parliamentary seats for us at the next GE.
Will L at 28 claims that this is the most momentous day in the past 50 years. I suspect that it will struggle to be the most momentous day of this week for a majority of people, but if it is pointing towards a General Election then it may have more significance.
Fenland is now 39 Tory, 1 other as well…
161 - as a Hull resident, if the LDs can get anywhere here in the next GE, fair play to them. Hull’s been Labour for approximately eight billion years, but Team Yellow were pretty much nailed on to take it last night.
I think the Betfair market has been completely mad today and presumably people without much knowledge have got their fingers burnt.
Well, back from a day’s work where I was away from the ongoing results to find that they have, indeed, been quite astonishing.
Firstly, and most importantly, Labour are second in Scotland and far short of a majority in Wales, I feel like I should say that again because you might take it for granted. Despite the de facto bribes of the Scottish and Welsh electorate by labour, despite the vile, gutter press, particularly the scum at the Sun, despite the system being loaded to benefit labour, they could not hang on. It is, quite simply, a political earthquake and, while some think it just affects Scotland, we know that in fact it should have a greater effect on England and how it defines itself. The Union has to change before it dissolves completely, can the other parties come up with a bettr solution? They have to, and quick.
Secondly, the tories could hardly have expected better, extending beyond even the overreaching targets of their biggest critics to get 900-ish gains and, what will probably turn out to be, more than 41% of the vote. The South was predictable but not the way that they have scythed through large areas of the Midlands and North. Looking at my old home of High Peak the wards they have won are right in the heartland of labour territory. Noise about Manchester etc. is doing the tories a favour as they creep up elsewhere almost unnoticed.
Thirdly, and with sadness, Lib Dems, this has to be a wake up call. Too many times you see attacks on the tories and nothing on labour, people will not vote for an adjunct to an unpopular government. Attack labour, attack hard, steal their clothes, make tory/lib dem switchers actually like the lib dems, that’s the only way to stop the vast haemorrhaging of votes.
Labour; it’s their worst nightmare, you can see it in their eyes in unguard