Why did we get the Lib Dems wrong?
May 4th, 2007
Was Ming’s party the big loser in yesterday’s elections?
The above instant “poll” was taken on Tuesday amongst visitors to the site and shows how people were perceiving the possibilities for Britain’s third party earlier in the week.
On the face of its things were looking up for Ming and his team. In the three previous national opinion polls, albeit on general election voting intention, the Lib Dems had shown significant improvements.
Yet with about half the results from the English councils still to come in it is clear that the 7% in our “poll” who predicted Lib Dem losses of more than 150 seats are the ones who got this right.
This surely is the big shock from Thursday and could it have lone-term implications.
Mike Smithson
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Mike - it may also suggest Tory visitors trying to ramp Lib Dem expectations in the hope they’d fall short!
The overall losses are not a national problem for the Lib Dems (though I’m sure the local parties will be upset). The only problem is where they occur in places the Lib Dems need to win at the general election. News from Lib Dem marginal seats is, in the main, pretty positive.
When the LDs win the defeated party is like rabbit with a headlamp in its eye. they go blind and think they can never recover. DC has reversed that light.
BBC confirm C gain Blackpool
The LD’s (at least on this site) have long been in a state of denial about both theur own party and the effect of Cameron. Hope it stays that way!
how is the BNP going?
They have failed in Sandwell this time. Are they going well somewhere?
With 15 out of 32 Scottish councils declared:
SNP 150 councillors
Lab 126
Con 74
LD 69
oth 83
NOC: 13 councils (+6)
oth: 2 councils (-1)
Lab: 0 councils (-5)
Lab lost Clackmannanshire, East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire.
Ind lost Moray.
3 - more grim Tory news from the wastelands of the North then. Shame, as Blackpool has two former Tory seats they could do with winning back. What a dire performance in Lancashire then.
Cameron out!
For those of us old enough to remember the Liberal ‘winter’ of 1977 Mike this election is like a balmy spring day.
Yes some places like Woking and Torbay have gone down but there have been a good number of places like Eastbourne and Caradon to balance the scales.
All in all, quite a good night to be a Lib Dem when a mid term wipeout would have been expected in the past.
In my view, it was a horrible night for the labour, could be worse?yes, but it wasn’t, so lets see what was, and not what could be, and labour scored badly, the liberal democratas have had a horrible night too, what a poor perfomace!, and the conservative, good gains, but not enough.
7: if the Tories have won Blackpool then they must have done well there as they previously had just 13 seats in a council of 42.
It will be ignored by Nick Robinson et al…
NOC HOLD Dundee City Council
Dundee is now the 2nd Scottish city to declare (Aberdeen was quite early on this am)
SNP 13 (+2)
Lab 10 (n/c)
Con 3 (-2)
LD 2 (n/c)
oth 1 (n/c)
Fascinating! It was previously a Lab-Con-LD Unionist ‘grand coalition’. Same again?
Blackpool - Possibly a reaction to the Casino issue?
Manchester was one of Labour’s better performances, but it may just be a coincidence.
http://www.stoke.gov.uk/elections - so far in Stoke on Trent the BNP have won seat - yuck - they held 5 before the Elections - the local website does not say if this is an additional seat or not
11 - It may not be this time as the Tories lost seats because of it.
NOC HOLD Scottish Borders Council
Con 11 (n/c)
LD 10 (+2)
SNP 6 (+4)
oth 7 (-6)
14 - How do you know, what with the change in voting system?
26% when the best poll says 22% (and some recent ones 15%) shouldn’t be considered too bad but inevitably the loss of seats looks bad and is for the councils concerned. In England 755 councillors compares to Labour 874.
Locally won Hinckley - waiting to hear about Harborough.
8 that’s an interesting set of scales you’ve got there! There’s only 2 sets of activists who are going to be happy and motivated and that’s the tory and SNP ones. PC’s will probably squabble as to what went wrong, Labour ones will pretend to each other that it could have been worse and the LDs will start throwing darts at pictures of Ming. Him standing on Eastbourne beach pretending everything was OK was rather sad.
It was a bad night for the Lib dems nationally and the agonised pretence at anything else by posters on here won’t do.
Why is it not possible for the Orange Ones to just accept that they had a disappointing evening?
I am genuinely surprised, I expected gains for them from Labour and more holds from us: I really did believe the polling in recent weeks that had shown a small but significant LD surge and a falling back in Camerons support.
1. Joe FairW - “it may also suggest Tory visitors trying to ramp Lib Dem expectations in the hope they’d fall short!”
Aye right! Pull the other one
With rampant Lib Dem rampers like Mark Senior, the Tories and Labour did not need to bother.
Menzies Campbell does not need enemies when he has ‘friends’ like Mark Senior.
LOL
Sorry if this is off thread, or if the news is already known, but we now have to refer to COUNCILLOR Rik W. His majority in Peppard Ward, Reading, was about 500. More spectacularly, SBS scored 225-or so votes in his contest. The Lib Dems in Reading have immediately declared it to be a Target Seat, and are insisting that he visits the Ward at least once next year.
SNP lose Angus to NOC although I think that was predicted anyway due to STV.
7 - “more grim Tory news from the wastelands of the North then”
Wastelands? The Tories now control more councils in the North-West than any other party. Its easy to cherry-pick individual areas where one party is not winning, but the overall picture is one of a Conservative resurgence - including in the North.
20 - Stuart, merely questioning Mike’s rather touching belief that all those who voted in his site poll will have taken an entirely objective and impartial view of Lib Dem prospects…
21 - Well done Rik!
And can anyone confirm this for me. If a councillor in a Scottish ward steps down/dies/dissapears etc do all the existing councillors have to recontest the seat at the subsequent by-election?
South Wales Central regional seats:
Con 2
Plaid 2
No change
22. Max
Yes, very much so. And the only other non-Labour council, Inverclyde, is also a ‘Nominal’ NOC as well. In fact, only about 4 councils are not Nominal NOCs.
Tayside North: SNP hold by 21.4%
SNP hold Perth and Tayside North with increased majorities.
Mike - Any news on your Mayoral election yet?
29 thanks for this - I was worried about Perth.
After 63 Scottish constituencies, on total national vote share SNP lead by 1.4%:
SNP 33.8%
Lab 32.4%
Con 16.6%
LD 15.4%
7.2% majority for Roseanna Cunningham
NOC GAIN from SNP: Angus Council
SNP 13 (-4)
Con 5 (+3)
LD 3 (n/c)
Lab 2 (+1)
oth 6 (n/c)
25. No Max, they don’t.
Burnley Council final result: Cons, Lab and LD each gain one seat from BNP - Labour winning their’s on a draw of lots! BNP continue to wither away in Burnley then, down to 4. Tories up one to 6 - as far as they can get in Burnley with only 2 winnable wards of 3. I expect the LibDem/Tory joint administration will continue.
SNP HOLD Perth
SNP 39.4
Con 32.3
LD 13.7
Lab 13.0
FSP 1.6
2.4% SWING from CON to SNP
32: so the predictions of a Tory squeeze down to 10-11% looking unfounded then…
38. Yep Scottish polls rubbish again
SNP HOLD North Tayside
SNP 51.6
Con 30.2
Lab 9.2
LD 9.0
4.0% SWING from CON to SNP
Labour has unseated Jean Turner
There’s a bit of (not unexpected) excitement about these results, but actually they are to be expected (other than the Lib Dem poor performance in Scotland).
I said a few days ago that anyone expecting Lib Dems gains in council seats was deluding themselves (unfortunatley including Mark Senior). I said keeping the losses below 250 would be a good result for the Lib Dems. Why? Because the seats that were up this time were those last fought when IDS was leader - and his result was so bad the Tories decided to get rid of him. A minimum of 750+ gains for the Tories in council seats is the benchmark and I think they’ll get them.
Scotland (and Edinburgh in particular) is a dissappointment - Central should have been a easy gain (particularly when you look at Dunfermline). And the result in Roxburgh and Berwickshire (hat tip to Max) was not entirely unexpected was down to laziness and arrogance from the outgoing MSP.
Given the circumstances Gordon and Inverness weren’t bad results for the Lib Dems, but again with a bit more work from the previous incumbent in Gordon Salmond would have found it tougher.
While not being happy with these results they are pretty much in line with what Ming and the parliamentary party was expecting.
And I’d be interested to see what the results are going to be in the seats that matter - the Lib/Tory marginals in the south rather than the safe Tory areas. We know about Eastleigh, Eastbourne and Torbay, but I suspect the other areas with Lib Dem MPs challengers will prove a whole lot closer than the Bournemouths of this world.
Oh and I was one of the 7% who voted for 150+ losses…
LAB GAIN from Ind - Strathkelvin & Bearsden
Conservatives hit the 400 mark - with nearly half the results still to come.
Is the BBC including the Scottish local results in the “locals” scoreboard, or just the English ones still?
Isn’t it virtually impossible now for Labour to win most seats? Who is putting the money on Labour? Very strange. Simple addition and subtraction. The current seats change on last time means its virtually impossible for Labour to win most seats. They have lost too many FPTP seats, and are doing far too badly on the list to make up for this.
Someone correct me if I am wrong.
That is why the BBC and Sky have ben hinting the SNP have won most seats for over an hour.
SNP have won the consituency vote, list vote and most seats now almost certain.
45: 400 gains that is
NOC GAIN from Labour: North Ayrshire Council
Lab 12 (-8)
SNP 8 (+5)
Con 3 (-2)
LD 2 (+2)
oth 5 (+3)
Broadland - LDs wiped out!!!
Jean Turner finished thrid beated also by SNP.
LD (part of the seat is in Swinson’s constituency) a poor 4th outpolled by the tories
31 - Marcia - very parochial question! - but which wards did the Tories win in in Dundee?
Also I think I’ve just spoken to the only unhappy SNP member in Scotland - oh the dangers of standing for the council as a ‘paper’ candidate!!!!!
50. ops, LD 5th
#46 Will L -I hope you are right but the voting system has a deliberate in-built bias to the Labour Party. They created this in built bias and now cannot even run the election properly-if a party ever deserved to lose, it is Labour
According to BBC Lib Dems have lost all their councillors in Broadland (Norfolk)..can this be true??
Utterly appalling Liberal Democrat result in Strathkelvin. What on earth have they been up to during the last few months???
46 - 5 Areas still to declare - West Central Scotland list - SNP have one one constituency seat in that area so should gain a couple from this. Lothians count very slow but SNP stacking up votes there compared to last time.
Green elected in Glasgow in Partick West.
46 Will L - I would very much expect Labour to gain several seats on the lists north of the central belt, none of which have been declared so far. So there is a very good chance that they, not the SNP will come out ahead.
Max - 2 in Broughty Ferry (Ferry) and one in the Riverside (WestEnd) ward.
yes, all LDs defeated in Broadland and Labour has apparently gained 9 seats there. Or maybe BBC is drunk
C gain Braintree
Strathkelvin & Bearsden
Lab 31.1% (+1.2)
SNP 21.9 (+8.2)
Ind (Turner) 18.4 (-12.7)
Con 14.2 (+2.8)
LD 12.7 (-1.3)
SCHP 1.7
So much for the Lab Dims “rising star” Jo Swinson MP. What on earth…..
59 - Thanks Marcia. Couldn’t really see us winning any where else in Dundee!
Broadland
LD -11, Ind -2, Lab + 9, C + 4
New council: Ind 3, C 35, Lab 9
It also looks like the SNP have won a landslide in the Councils.
If the Labour lose a net of 8 FPTP seats, and gain only 3 list seats (which is extremely optimistic for Labour) then their total is only 41. Vice versa the SNP have a strong chance of totalling 50 seats. It is virtually impossible for Labour to win most seats.
65 - I think they’ve picked up two in Mid-Scotland and Fife.
57 Bill Kidd elected in Drumchapel was also elected as MSP as the 5th List Member for Glasgow. By-election?
SNP now taken the lead in FPTP votes with 9 to go
SNP 33.6
Lab 32.4
C 16.5
LD 15.3
after 3 regions the Greens are only on 3.5% so it’s looking near wipeout. PtP I hope you got your 6 Greens or fewer bet on.
BBC Radio Scotland: Seats thus far:
Lab 36
SNP 33
LD 12
Con 10
Grn 1
Sarko now has the same chance of winning as Gordon Brown!
Both at 1.09.
BBC interview with Robin Harper: “It is just going to be Patrick and me.”
So: Greens to get 2 seats (-5)
John Reid very coy on Sky. Refusing to rule himself out of the leadership. Will make an announcement next week!
re 46. Will I wouldn’t say it’s entirely cut and dried yet. Despite being in second place in the FPTP votes Lab still lead the SNP in FPTP seats by 33/18. It’s still touch and go that the SNP can make up enough list seats to correct this imbalance.
Now if even the BBC are saying the SNP have probably won most seats, then the current odds are very strange. Who on Earth is laying the SNP?!! Back them before it’s all gone.
74. Will L
I am not a betting man. And this is why!
I think it may well be a dead heat!
Are you all going to lose your money?
Poor Greens
65 Will L, are you considering that constituency seats are effectively deducted from list seats? Therefore constituencies don’t matter, unless a party wins more constituencies in a region than their share of the list vote entitles them to, like Labour did in Glasgow. The +/- will be skewed because so many constituencies have already declared while most regions are still missing.
Stuart. I notice that an Electoral Commission spokesman was saying that the voters had no significant trouble with STV but had screwed up on the voting for the Parliament even though this is the third election with this sytem. Was there a particular error which voters kept making? If they ranked candidates 1234 then surely the vote for the first choice would be acceptable if, as is supposed to happen, the electoral officers tried to determine the intent of the voter? As for the failure of postal ballot papers to arrive in time, that is an absolute disgrace. Heads should roll but of course won’t.
73. Haven’t the SNP already made up the balance.
And if we extrapolate the current list results then the SNP should hit 50. Labour hasn’t lost a lot of seats - only a net of 9. But the SNP are gaining far more than expected, and required, from the list - which should put them on a total 50. We forget that the small parties have given greatly to the SNP, dramatically increasing the SNP total - from an expected 43 seats to perhaps 50 seats. It just doesn’t seem like Labour have any chance on this.
Just trying to be objective.
73/74. With 9 constituency seats left, SNP leads national vote share by 1.2%. But if you look at the 9 seats to come, very few look strong for SNP. So looks likely SNP will win national vote share by around 0.5%.
If this is the case are they really guaranteed most seats?
Both list and constituency were on the same ballot in opposing columns, and the instructions said you have two votes, so apparently lots of people placed two X’s in the same column.
74 Will L - I imagine the people backing Labour are the ones that have looked at the available list totals for the Highlands, NE Scot + Mid Scot & fife and have seen that its Labour who will be gaining the most list seats from these areas.
Highland Council results coming through here
Chris A
Thanks for the enquiry but no, I passed on the Greens bet. Too obscure and risky.
How you doing? Up on this election generally?
The silence of Mark Senior, ColinW, Zebedee etc is unusual. As for Dan (Kingston Dan) just re-read his entry as polls closed last night. The “informed sources” about Salmond losing in Gordon, the Lib Dem sweep in Woking. Denial and Hubris all mixed together, but nine decades of consistent defeat breeds something.
Apart from that most contributers from Lab and the Cons are being restrained and quite interesting.
One final point, before I join Heat and Kitchen to have a good weekend, from which of his three addresses did Roger vote? It would be interesting to see if he made a difference
Its seems clear to me that nobody knows yet for sure which party will win the most seats in the Scottish parliament. If you were certain of the maths then there is £100 at 1.46 SNP or else £100 at 1.7 Labour. Free money if its all over one way or the other.
Chrisco So people voted for two candidates instead of one candidate and one for the Party?
I’m now worried about an SNP/Lab TIE ! All green on both - who collects on betfair if equal ?
So far in Canterbury:
3 Tory losses to LibDems (Little Stour, Barton, Heron)
1 Labour loss to Tory (Marshside)
Is Douglas Alexander’s head going to roll over this election fiasco? People are very, very angry indeed.
ahaha, an handful of people have transfered from Solidarity to Conservatives in a Glasgow ward
Good Lord! Has the Viscount’s lady wife been elected in Thurso?
Blackpool confirmed 13 con gains
Well nearly right on Vale of Glamorgan. But should not sleep easy. THe momentum is now clearly very Tory. Rioght on CW&SP. I knew Plaid didn’t have the manpower to mtach the Tories there and in Aberconwy as well, especially outside North Wales. Cardiff West, well I predicted Rhodri’s majority would be halved, but I though Lib Dems not Conservatives. A first clas result for them. Maybe they could dream of the seat again one day. Lib Dems, Cardiff South, build on 2005 progress. I think they’ll be in second at General Election, next time with potential to win when Michael retires. Great result in Newport Eas Lib Demns well on their radar now, and Newport west Tories, Paul Flynn watch out I think.
Overall though having pushed Labour hard in many and taken key seats you have tosay the Conservatives are back with a bang in Wales.
78 - I’ve heard that the main error was to vote twice on the list vote, because the ballot said “You have two votes” and people didn’t read the instructions closely enough to realise that that meant one for a party list on the left, and one for a constituency on the right. Last time the votes were on separate ballots.
SNP gain Livingston - OMG
That is John Smith not sleep easy.
Prob is stjohn theres still the W of Scotland and Lothians list due as well so although I’d say the chances of Labour coming out ahead are good, they’re not good enough for me to put money on
88. Jamie. Usual dead heat rules. You win and lose half your bet on each outcome.
23 - Philip Thompson - my post at 7 was sarcastic! I should have put a winking smiley on it perhaps…
Aren’t the list totals extremely bad for Labour in the NE?
re 84. Ptp not bad thanks. I seemed to go the right way on most results last night - and as a resultthe green numbers kept getting bigger whoever won. Paying for it now though, I’m going to be in need of matchsticks before too long.
OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG
SNP gain Livingston.
Angela Constance. IIRC I liked her during the byelection
Labour get 3 top up seats in Mid Scotland and Fife.
What’s going wrong for the Tories in South Lakeland - this is true-blue Tory territory, but since the LibDem’s shock narrow victory at the GE, they’re slowly wiping out the Tories on the local council. I spend a lot of time in that area, and it depresses me to see it becoming a LibDem heartland!
Remember Labour are doing much worse than expected in most areas outside Glagow. South of Scotland Labour in meltdown, with evidence the situation is the same in NE and Highlands.
By losing Livingston and most probably Edinburgh East Labour are almost certain to have George Foulkes elected on the list - possible future Labour leader?
SNP GAIN Livingston
SNP 39.6% (+8.0)
Lab 37.0 (-6.6)
ASJH 8.5
Con 8.4 (-0.9)
LD 6.5 (-2.4)
7.3% SWING from LAB to SNP
Thanks Nimble. So the over vote couldn’t count because there was no way of determining the first choice and the under vote couldn’t count because there was no mark at all. Why on earth change the design of a ballot paper with which voters had some familiarity?
Mid Scotland and Fife regional seats
3 Lab
3 Con
1 SNP
21 - thanks a lot!!
I had a 458 majority over the Lib Dem deputy Leader.
Across Reading East constituency Labour only managed to win ONE seat (Abbey ward by 83 votes).
Reading is now:
Labour 25 (-7)
Cons 14 (+6)
Lib Dem 7 (+1)
BBC “SNP dropping very heavy hints about making gains in Edinburgh.”
Lib Dems have just slipped through the -150 mark. Get in!
Tories powering towards 500 gains now with 130 councils still to declare.
Why did the Lib Dems get it so wrong?
-Their leader,Ming needs to be replaced with someone that at least looks in touch with the new millenium
-With the emergence of Respect,Greens ,UKIP and BNP,the Lib Dems have lost their monopoly of being the the protest party.
-Lib Dems always do badly when the Tories do well.
-Labour vote in northern England it seems would prefer to stay at home than switch to the Lib Dems.
-Harrogate annoucement earlier this year that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for Labour.
“South of Scotland Labour in meltdown”
they held all their seats in South of Scotland!
1. Not guilty. I really thought the Lib Dems would break even, and perhaps gain slightly.
5. V. mixed. They’ve gained, I think, 3 in Stoke, 2 in NW Leics. 1 in Charnwood, 1 in Bradford, and 1 in Staffordshire Moorlands, and seem to have won about 5% of the Welsh vote, and nearly won an assembly seat. But their vote is down in a number of their target areas, and they’ve lost 6 of the 8 seats they were defending.
LAB HOLD Eastwood
Huge Tory disappointment there!!
Hertsmere, Con gain 1 from Labour, and lose 1 to Lib Dems. New council Con 28, Lib Dem 7, Labour 4. Frank Ward lost his seat, but still won 20% of the vote.
112 - an extra seat with Prof Chis Harvie
113
Well done Rick,are there more seats up for election in Reading next year?
2.2% majority for Lab in Eastwood
123: shame, only 900-odd votes in it. Never mind.
17. Correct, Labour held 3 S of S FPTP seats. However, in relative terms SNP gaining much ground via the list vote. So overall Labour down markedly RELATIVE to SNP. This is all they need to win more seats, as mentioned above.
113 Congratulations Rik!!
Can we look forward to even more exclamation marks now??!!!!
Con gain Uttlesford.
Will L - I hope you are right. I got SNP at 1.48 and 1.7 ages ago and have held on until now…
Maybe more !! from Rik but not from Uttlesford LDS - another one down
Eastwood
Lab 35.8% (-0.1)
Con 33.6 (+7.3)
SNP 18.9 (+6.7)
LD 8.5 (-4.5)
Ind 3.2
3.7% SWING from LAB to CON
124 - Very dissapointing. More so as the independent Conservative polled over 1,000 votes.
Including Eastwood, SNP now only lead national vote share by 0.7%.
SNP 33.3%
Lab 32.6%
Surely this is the best indicator of final result?
Many congratulations to ,well now,Councillor Rik Willis:wink:
Council latest
Cons +476, Lab -225, LD -167 Others -85
(186/312)
Others had a bad night too !
Nottingham Evening Post reporting bad news, BNP gain a councillor in Broxtowe, a sad day for Nottinghashire in that respect.
128. Why are you replying to yourself?
Tories thrash Lib Dems in Uttlesford and S Norfolk - Ming’s problems deepen…
111 blue moon, yep. I guess they could have counted them as half votes for either party.
The previous design had the constituency vote as the “first” vote, even though the list vote is much more important. (That’s why the small parties did so well previously, because people thought, why not give the second vote to the Greens etc.).
So they decided to change that, and presumably they thought might as well put them on one sheet of paper, to have one ballot for the Parliament and one for the council. The two votes should have been clearly distinguished using different background colours, but I can’t remember now whether they actually were.
So who will be largestSNP or Labour. Goodnight or not for the Conservative Party Max.
128. Haha it’s Will L trying to convince himself…
I actually meant to sign that Will E! Sorry for the confusion..
113 a stunning victory Reading will go blue at the next GE I’m sure, now that you’ll be around to do the leafletting! - I’m sure Mark Senior will pop up to congratulate you soon.
South Norfolk - c gain 20 from LD…
500 Tory gains achieved. LDs very close to -200 - will Ming even make it through the weekend?
Prof Arbuthnott saying that Scottish council elections MUST be held on a separate day.
Things changing quickly Cons now +515, Lab -237, LD - 195 (190/312)
Applying the swing in the regions so far declared to those yet to declare and using the FPTP votes already eeclared as a basis for those results I reckon the list %age should come out as
SNP 30.5
Lab 29.2
C 14.4
LD 11.9
Gr 4.5
and putting thse into my calculator I’m going to stick my neck out and say the final result will be
SNP 45
Lab 44
C 20
LD 18
Gr 2
If this is right remember you read it here first!
136 Brit Spin
He sometimes forgets to change the name before posting.
139 - I would have said good if we’d won Eastwood. It’s OK though. Not as bad as some had predicted.
I think if we hold 18 seats we’ll have done OK. Have to see how the council results go too.
There have been some amazing CON LD battles Uttlesford must have been dire for the LDs (the BBC are getting very slow at putting up figures)
On the councils themselves Con +22, Lab -5, LD -1 (NOC - 15)
Conservatives win Elstree and Borehamwood Town Council for the first time ever by 9-4. When this was Borehamwood Urban District Council, Labour managed to hold it even in 1968.
Why still no result in last Welsh list region?
Broadland correction
Ind -2, LD -2, C + 4
New council: Ind 3, Con 35, LD 9
146 Chris A, does your seat prediction take into account the bonus seats that Labour won in Glasgow by winning more constituencies than their share of list vote allowed for?
146 Chris A
Looks about right to me.
And pretty damn close to my prediction yesterday
:) 
(I got Greens a bit wrong though - I think I said 8!!)
144 - They definately have to. He recommended it at the time.
A complete lack of suitable information given to voters as well WRT how the system works.
LDs hit -200
Is “No Zing” Ming still out there?
151 hopefully my stepsisters vote helped there -that’s a real standout result.
Re The original post. We were all focussed on Labour doing badly and totally took our eyes off the Lib Dems who really when you think about it have nothing going for them these days.
128, 140. I rest my case.
85 - Pot and Kettle - all I said about Gordon was that Slamond ‘would struggle’ - I think the Lib Dems were too optimistic there and in the end he won relatively easily - but if you are looking at figures that mean your vote is up, then it’s not often that you lose (unless you’re Rik in Sutton
).
Woking the Lib Dems appear to have wiped out Labour, but lost one more ward than they gained. And compared to other results in Surrey the vote held up well.
I notice you haven’t commented on my previous posts that say talk of Lib Dems gains was ‘deluded’ in this round of elections.
I invite analysis. How do others project the remaining seats?
Only people offering predictions agree SNP will be ahead. No one saying Labour have clung on. Surely the BBC and Sky can’t both be wrong.
Lab lose Sheffield to NOC
Greens hold Central ward
‘Tory gains achieved. LDs very close to -200 - will Ming even make it through the weekend?’
I hope so as he’s now proven to be a major electoral asset for the Tories!
159: at this rate, and as we are presumably left with a lot of rural/southern England battles now, could the LDs overtake Labour as the big losers? They’re catching rapidly…
Where are the BBC predicting that SNP will have the most seats?
Is there any good website that brings together the constituency and list results for each region, including the results from last time? The BBC thingy is just too slow and bothersome.
Based on the current figures on the BBC of lab 37 SNP 34 and looking at the results still to come and making some guesses on how the constituencies and top ups will work out ( constituency losses and gains are often balanced out by the regional seats )
High & Islands
Lab 3 more
SNP 2 more
Lothian
Lab 3 more
SNP 2-3 more
NE
Lab 3 more
SNP 1 more ?
West
Lab 0 more
SNP 3 more
on this basis this would give Lab 46 SNP 43. I might be being too generous to Lab but even so it does look very close not likely to be more than one seat in it either way
Winchester so far:
3 LD gains from Con
1 Con gain from LD
162. Will L:
National vote share (7 seats left):
SNP 33.3%
Lab 32.6%
The 7 remaining seats are mainly not SNP.
With Glasgow giving bonus seats for Labour this must still be a toss-up.
166. Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells
The SNP have won seats all over the country. broken out of their heartlands.
(I used to live in Royal Tunbridge Wells!)
165. Latest is Lab -239 vs LD 208 ….
Lab hold Linlithgow, according to Sky.
Looks like Lib Dems have held Vale of White Horse in Oxfordshire. Tories will be disappointed.
http://www.whitehorsedc.gov.uk/council_and_democracy/election_results/default.asp
Lab has gainged Luton fron NOC
re 154 yes my calcualtor calculates the list seats exactly as the reutrning officer would
167 - Ah, just had to click on “Parliament A-Z” on the BBC site instead of the map thingies.
Labour favourites again on Betfair.
I actually have no connection with tunbridge wells - just liked the handle.
Have the BBC explicitly said that the SNP are expected to win the most seats? I haven’t seen that anywhere.
I’m also all in green on the scotland result, i don’t really understand the dead heat rule - what does it mean?
Let me venture my prediction then Chris:
SNP 44
Lab 45
C 19
LD 18
Gr 2
Not too diferent from yours and it could go either way.
And on that not I’ll say goodnight from Aussie and will see you all + the final result hopefully tommorow.
Conservative losses to LDs in Mendip (Somerton and Frome constituency)
173. Linlithgow swing under 2%. Result very odd.
Net Lib Dem gains from Tories in Winchester is pretty impressive!
3.9% Lab majority in Linlithgow. Just 1.7% swing to SNP
Final results in Stoke - the BNP gain two seats, and are now larger than the Conservatives and the Lib Dems
New Council
Lab 24 Others 18 BNP 7 Con 6 Lib Dem 5
Yikes
Reid on BBC TV again. He is on TV almost continuously! Any implications - will he go for leadership?
3 Lab gains from LD in Newcastle
168. just seen lab hold Linlithgow which changes the maths slightly Lab seats still to come in Lothian 2-3 Lab total 44 -45
176 - So how are the SNP making up for Labour’s bonus seats? I think Labour are getting quite a bit more than they deserve in the Central and West of Scotland regions as well.
168 - if your calculations are correct, what coalitions are possible?
Looking at the edinburgh seats, is there any chance Labour could gain Edin South from LDs? It was very close last time, and the LD results have been very odd. I ask genuinely as I’ve no idea if it’s a ludicrous possibility or not. At this stage weird possibilities become very important.
Well as one of those who predicted considerable Lib Dem losses overall, I don’t know if I can join this thread…
But locally the LDs lost two seats to Tories, The Tories lost one seat to Labour and 3 to Independents, Labour lost one seat to Independents but took one from the Tories.
With one exceptionally good LD defence over a Tory, they were basically wiped out everywhere they stood this time. Next year could see them reduced even further.
Labour gained votes in nearly every ward locally, including some big jumps in some wards, including one where they more than tripled their vote.
No meltdown here - and we’re in the supposed heartland of Tory revival in Kent!
Morning y’all. Still going on, and still interesting! It seems to me Salmond could try and claim the moral right to govern if he has the plurality of votes cast but there’s a dead heat in seats, or he’s just one behind..
On the other hand: if he’s only one or two seats ahead it’s difficult to see how he can claim the moral right to try and break up Britain. The large majority of Scots voted for Unionist parties.
He may have to scrap his referendum plans to get a coalition going. How will that play with the fundies? Stuart?
191 - I don’t know it’s definitely possible bearing in mind the Lib Dems very poor night north of the border.
I’m rather pleased that Stuart Dickson doesn’t bet as it looks like the Nats have gained Edinburgh East, while the Lib Dems failed in Central.
141 Reading East already has a Tory MP
If the results are as is forecast from now on, then the only coalitions are surely going to be SNP+Lab or anything involving the Tories! Or am I missing something?
Congratulations to the hundreds of Labour councillors given the boot by the electorate. You must be absolutely delighted at your “good springboard” to winning the next general election, as your glorious leader described it.
As for the Lib Dems, maybe the time has come to bring back Charlie. Bringing back a previous leader worked for the SNP.
Just noticed the great Lib Dem results in Salisbury - +10 seats in total! 8 seats gained from the Tories, another 2 from Lab. Tories lose control of Council.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/councils/html/46ud.stm
193. Ming Campbell last night resolutely ruled out the possibility of agreeing to an independence referendum, whatever tag-ons the SNP may propose to include.
194 Dan - “I’m rather pleased that Stuart Dickson doesn’t bet”
You got lucky there!
The results are in from Penwith District Council in the far west of Cornwall.
The Conservatives have gained three seats, two from the Liberal Democrats (Goldsithney and Morvah, Pendeen & St Just) and one from an Independent (St Erth & St Hillary). The Liberal Democrats have gained Hayle North from an Independent.
(As a caveat, the Morvah seat is a split 3-member LD/IND ward. I don’t know if it was an LD or IND seat being defended. I think it was an LD seat but not 100% sure).
Turnout ranged from 35% in Penzance to 55% in Marazion
The split is now CON 17 (+3) LD 11 (-1) IND 7 (-2) LAB 1 (subject to above)
The issue for 2008 is whether the Tories can take overall control of this authority for the first time. Since its inception in 1973, Penwith has either been Independent controlled or NOC. The LDs have never controlled it although the constituency is solid LD with Andrew George as MP.