The final Blair Commons seats market
May 9th, 2007
How will this move in the Brown era?
On the eve of the Tony Blair’s historic announcement the table shows how punters were assessing the chances of the main parties for the next general election in the Spreadfair commons seats market.
In this form of betting you buy or sell seat numbers and you can trade them day in and day out right until the final election is known maybe three years hence. You also do not need to tie up any cash now with an easy to open credit account.
The big question is which way is this going to go. Will the polls about Brown being leader be correct and could we see an increase in the Tory spread and a decrease in the Labour one?
Or will Gordon bring a stability and sense of direction to the party that will see the markets moving in the other direction
Who knows - the choice is yours. As a reference point a party will need 325 seats in the next parliament to be sure of forming a majority government.
Mike Smithson - author of “The Political Punter - how to make money betting on politics”
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It’s interesting, Mike, that the table suggest a Hung Parliament. You can still back that at 11/8 on Betfair.
I’ve layed off all my risk on GB at 1.04 - he’s got to avoid any sort of accident for 7 weeks - not worth it IMHO - taking my profits and running..
My gut reaction is that the spread will drift up on positive sentiment for a short period then drift back down again.
As in a little bit of a Brown bounce, then a decline.
That said I don’t know if it will be big enough to cover the spread gap.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Westminster election pans out for the SNP.
If they form a functioning government and increase their credibility, are there actually many seats vulnerable to them in Scotland?
47. I’m pretty sure there will be a leadership resignation tomorrow. If not, why not make the announcement weeks ago! There would have been no justification for a delay. The reason why Blair had to delay is because tomorrow will be a leadership resignation, to trigger the party election process, and will also contain the announcement of a PM resignation date.
Reid said the PM resignation date would be at the end of June, as have other Cabinet ministers. June 30 has been published in the press - 7 weeks and 2 days after the leadership resignation on May 10.
1 - isn’t a hung parliament something that is very, very unlikely to happen? Doesn’t the possibility only exist in a very narrow set of circumstances, i.e. a tiny swing either way produces a majority for one side or the other?
Q2 now 1.36 Q3 now 2.9 …
Q2 now 1.34 Q3 now 3.0
Radio 4 says he is not resigning as leader - hand over will be in early July - sounds like Q3 again!!!!
Peter the P. Re solution to lost bets on the dog. Have you thought of …gulp… betting on one of the other dogs. I know it would be grossly disloyal but you might clear enough money to get him some biscuits every now and then.
Jockeys are not allowed to bet!!!
Fleas can’t bet either.
9 I can see Brown becoming leader on June 30th but Blair not going to the Palace until Monday morning then Gordon (going in limo with darkened windows) kissing hands around lunchtime on July 2nd. So Q2 for ceasing to be leader, Q3 for ceasing to be PM.
9. There website contains no confirmation. How can there be an election if he has not resigned as leader.
July 2nd a Monday the weekend is the clincher - hand over before or after the weekend - which looks likely ?
FLIP FLOP on Betfair - Q3 now the favourite !
16. Someone seems to have fallen for the R4 story. Just not going to happen. Q2 for leader, Q3 for PM.
Remember there was a lot of flip-flopping on the SNP election, they still won. A lot on Q2, will still win.
17,18 - shh - your spoiling the fun - good trading ops..
9. Icarus. You are a star! Betfair position nicely improved on both Q2/Q3.
Blair Switch Project - Q2 and Q3 joint favourites at 1.76
No doubt it will be an emotional speech (for him not for us) which pretty much sums it up. I imagine he has been planning it for months, thinking he’ll do another Diana and become the people’s politician one more time.
Sorry Tony you had your chance and we’re not that gullible. And no-one really cares what you have to say anymore. Now go off to America, where people actually like you, and make some money. The one thing you’re actually quite good at.
22 - isn’t he pretty bad at it? Seems like he’s made a right bllcks up of his property situation.
Q2 now 1.76, Q3 back to 2.2
SNP no value at 13 seats - would be a sell if the spread weren’t so ridiculously wide. Very little value in Plaid seats at 7 either.
13 For what its worth, on 30 June the Queen will not be at Buckingham Palace, as she is addressing the Scottish Parliament that day….
According to that, the forecast changes and vote shares are:
Con: 291 seats (+81) on a vote share of 38% (+5% on 2005)
Lab: 273 seats (-76) on a vote share of 33% (-3% on 2005)
LDm: 57 seats (-5) on a vote share of 22% (-1% on 2005)
Oth: 29 seats (n/c) on a vote share of 7% (-1% on 2005)
This is great!
Just made an easy guaranteed £10 by laying off Q3 at 2.0
Question as always, why didn’t I put more on Q3 when it was 7.5/1 on Mon?
27. Will the Labour-Liberal Coalition deal go ahead in the Welsh Assembly. All the Council Leaders are out against it. For some reason they think the voters might punish them next year at the Polls.
27. If those were the results. Realistically you’d have to say a net Lib Dem gain was on. They target so efficiently I think they’d easily pick up more than five Labour seats leaving a better spread seat range 62-69.
10 Blue Moon
I would bet on on Le Pen, Australia, Manchester United, even Scotland, if I thought the odds were right, but never, ever, against my dear Fella.
Go wash your mouth out.
30 - But do you not think there are more than 5 of there seats vulnerable to a Tory advance?
20 Flipflopping favorites, StJohn - you can’t beat ‘em! Got many a desperate punter off the hook before and I’m sure it’s done so again here.
All green now and looking forward to tomorrow.
32. If that was the Tory vote share I’d say ten. As the Tories hit 40% fifteen. And the Tories have to be touching 42% I’d say before my present upper limit and I say present of fifteen Tory Lib Dems gains comes into being.
26 For what it’s worth, Paul M?
It’s worth an awful lot. That could just be enough to tip it into Q3.
Thanks. I didn’t know that.
34. Opps as Conservatives hit 42% that should be twenty.
Q2 now 1.76, Q3 back to 2.2
Where are the boys at Bletchley Park when you really need them ?
Q2 now 1.95 ! Q3 1.82
31 Crikey! Mouth duly washed out. Enough said.
We shall soon find out - only a day away.
54 seats looks like a buy to me.
That’s for the Lib Dems obviously.
Rubish value for Plaid or the SNP
41. But it’s 57 isn’t it.
26. This is all very strange. It is still highly unlikely that the LEADERSHIP CHANGE will occur after June. The PM changeover is irrelevant! How can you bet on Q3 when only the PM changeover will occur then, and we are actually betting on a Labour Leadership Resignation. Is this the donkey money coming in? I will watch with interest.
Just to be update when the deputy race officially begins, how are candidates supporters called?
Hain=Hainites?
Cruddas=Cruddasites? Crudites?
Hilary Benn= Bennites? Hilarites?
Johnson=Johnsonites?
Blears=Hazelites?
Harman=Harmanites?
45. Are those that don’t want Hain called Hainalphobes ?
45. ‘Harpeople’, surely…
Q3 Now FIRM fave - 1.7 with Q2 at 2.1
Got back to all green after carrying a big bet on 2008 for a year or so..
Is Mr Smithson on Doughty street then again, and where is the Waller program. Can we have a link like for the earlier Smithson program.
44 Will L
If I keep repeating posts it will start to annoy people, so may I suggest you refer back to post 35 two threads previous.
Thanks.
49.”and where is the Waller program”
http://doughty.gdbtv.com/player.php?h=942ade29da7d6f2154bc7e64746670a1
(health warning: Dale’s tie)
44. The whole reason why Betfair got into this mess is that they haven’t defined the terms of the bet well enough. No-one is absolutely sure what ‘official’ leader means. If he resigns but is appointed interim leader, does that make him the official leader or not? You can make a case either way. Labour has no such thing as an ‘interim’ or ‘temporary’ leader catered for in its constitution, and in any case, such a person might still be considered the ‘official’ leader.
When the leader resigns, a new one is appointed until the vacancy is filled on a permanent basis, according to the rules that Andrea quoted on an earlier string. The NEC could (and indeed, in all probability will), appoint Blair himself to be the leader during the period between his resignation and the completion of the election. How Betfair would interpret that scenario is anyone’s guess.
The Betfair rules on the Blair Switch Project market are very badly worded.
‘When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?’
Clearly it all depends on his form of words tomorrow, does he resign as leader thus triggering a leadership election? or does he order a leadership election, to replace him in due course?
This could be yet another Betfair mess up. See my thread on the Betfair politics forum for the full debate.
Why does Labour need a leader anyway?
45.
Hain = Heinousones
Cruddas = Crudds ‘R’ Us
Hilary Benn = Hilarious Bennies (as in Crossroads/Falklands)
Johnson = Backward Sinjohns.
Blears = Hazeltinies? (not taking the Michael); Cheapmanques.
Harman = Ha-ha-ha-ha-harpersons.
But what is a collective noun for wannabe Brown number twos?
55
52 David
You have provoked me into repeating for the third time the following post. I apologise to those who have read it before.
******************************************************************
- Anybody betting now on this market needs to be extremely careful. It is far from clear how it will be settled. There are at least four imponderables.
1. What will TB actually say?
2. How will the NEC interpret what he says?
3. How will the NEC interpret and implement the Party rules?
4. How will Betfair interpret 1,2, and 3 above?
It may all become blissfully clear tomorrow. He may simply say something to the effect of ‘I am resigning today - X is taking over as Party Leader with immediate effect - the next elected Leader will be announced by the NEC on June 30th.’ Betfair will then pay out on Q2 and we can all start thinking about something else.
Somehow I suspect it will not be so clear cut. Of the many possible scenarios, the one suggested by Benedict strikes me as amongst the more probable. Blair will tender his resignation, triggering an election, but will continue in post until the NEC announces a new Leader. This could still result in a Q2 pay out, especially if there is no contest, but Q3 is every bit as likely, given the 7 week time span which the Party constitution appears to allow for the process.
In view of these imponderables, I haven’t bet the house but I have been attracted by what I regard as very generous odds on Q3. Personally I was interested in any price above threes but have have found, to my surprise, that much larger odds have been widely available over the past few days. I have not therefore needed to risk much cash for a potentially nice pick up.
In short, Q3 may lose, but in taking odds between fives and ten, I believe I got very good value.
57. Peter, thanks - I entirely agree: proceed with caution. I see that your instinct has proved right re the Q3 price - well done!
“Why does Labour need a leader anyway?”
‘Coz they’ve given up on finding followers?
Peter the P The risks of the third quarter position seem to be:
1 The Will L scenario ie Labour has no offocial leader for 7 weeks. Pretty unlikely IMHO. Labour will likely tell Betfair that he is still ‘officially’ leader as in practical terms a caretaker
2 TB ceases to be leader in the view of Betfair( and the Labour Party) when nominations close if there is no challenger. Clearly more of a danger.
3 GB is officially declared leader on or just before June 30. The seven weeks do allow for this. If 1 and 2 don’t come to pass there must be a high risk that this scenario will.
If I’m right the third quarter looks a low possibility. Quite what odds you’d need to justify a punt I’ll leave to others much more knowledgeable to answer but quite high odds, I would have thought.
59.
Nick Palmer has been hinting for a while that a bet on q3 might be a winner… and he is a rather well informed source. Someone just hit 1.4 for q3 - surely you wouldn’t do that unless you pretty much knew. (Maybe Tony earning himself a bit of cash for that mortgage which will be more expensive come tomorrow - only joking of course…)
58 Thank you, David.
Of course we don’t know the answer yet, but there’s no doubt Q3 was the value. I wouldn’t like to say what’s the value now.
55 reminded of a comment on Kerron Cross: that the plural of Hain is “A Smug of Hains”
Let’s face it, as long as ‘Tony Blair’ isn’t the answer, any old question will do!
Just to clarify - I’m not making any prediction of use for Betfair, since I gather that it depends not on the objective question of when TB hands over but on the subjective question of what a random person on the party phone line tells Betfair when they ring up. But I think it is quite likely that the day on which the NEC declares the result could be (just) in Q3.
60 Yes, I agree pretty much with that, Blue Moon. The only fact I would add is that apparently the Queen is in Scotland on June 30 so if the NEC announce on that day (perfectly possible, imo) the formalities are unlikely to be completed until the following Monday. This apparently minor detail could just make the difference.
But the main point I have been trying to make is the number of imponderables involved. I take it we are agreed on that?
62 “Maybe Tony earning himself a bit of cash for that mortgage…”
Jon - If he had a bet, there’s no guarantee he would get it right. The outcome depends not just on what he says, but on the interpretations of both the NEC and Betfair. Even the Great Leader cannot read their minds!
67 PtP. Brown could kiss hands with the Queen and take the seals of office at Holyrood Palace on 30th June !!
Will L, exactly what are the 30 year “solar cycles” you are talking about? If you’re talking about the Schwabe cycle it lasts about ten years and has no real effect on the atmospheric temperature of the Earth. If you’re talking about Milankovitch cycles they last tens of thousands of years and have no real effect in the decade-century timeframe.
Your little rant shows your prejudices. Most eco-campaigners are ex-communists are they? This is based on what evidence? I’ve campaigned on environmental issues yet I believe in capitalism, detest communism and vote Conservative. And bless those “impressionable” university students just swallowing everything they hear from “Marxist” professors. The truth is that most politics students I know work out the political views of their professors in the first couple of weeks and appreciate what they are being told is coming from a certain viewpoint.
One thing that does occur to me is that whoever speaks to Betfair from the Labour Party will be making a highly political statement. If an official Labour Party spokesman tells Betfair that TB has ‘officially’ ceased to be Leader it will be creating an awkward interregnum between that day and the day TB resigns as PM. This will be instantly a very newsworthy story.I’m sure TB will present things tomorrow as a future resignation and be furious if there is any subsequent announcement which interferes with this choreography. The Labour Party surely have discretion to go along with his wishes.
66 In other words, Nick, you don’t know. How could you? It’s simply unknowable.
69 Indeed Jack. Or it could take place as the clock chimes midnight! What would Betfair do then?!
72. Just sent you an email you might want to read PtP.
74 Got it. Thanks Henry.
Since Lib Dems are saying look at target seats not whole country, will one give me analysis and portents from Thursday’s results in Hull East, Bristol East and Swansea West.
Is Bristol East a target?
74. We crossed emails - check you got my second email Peter.
68. Likely only if her Maj has Salmond committed to the Tower in the same ceremony.
Looking at that snapshot of the spreads two things come to mind.
-Buy Tory
-Sell Liberal Democrat.
76. Long shot but I would argue yes. Let me throw another into the pot after a spectacular Thursday surge Newport East. If Lib Dems are to grow they have to gain from Labour, I think 99% would be ecstatic just to stay steady against Tories (IMHO v unlikely), so my challenge is show me you can do this.
78 Punter. We live in hope !
For about 24 hours I had softened on my hostility for Peter Hain, but now he’s surpassed himself with this interview with Labour’s Progress magazine. Two quotes which in a nutshell sum up why Hain won’t win.
1) ‘In a dig at the campaign tactics of some of his rivals, he describes himself as ‘the only deputy leader candidate who’s actually put forward ideas for renewal and debate. None of the others have put forward any policies or new ideas, and frankly, I think there’s been quite a lot of vacuous stuff around.’’
and…
2) ‘I don’t think anyone has done as difficult jobs as I have in government in bringing people together, negotiating solutions and finding ways forward.’
Pure narcissism.
78 - it’s a good call!
76. If it’s a target, LDs didn’t do well in locals as they were third last week trailing both Con and Lab
Forget to add the link. Sick bags at the ready.
http://progressonline.org.uk/Magazine/article.asp?a=1729
I think Mike would say buy Lib Dems - but lets wait for the price to drop another couple of points.
On Q2/Q3 I am now positive on both but make money on Q3. I think Tony Blair will be leader of the Labour party until Gordon is declared leader. On the other hand……
82 - Wasn’t his Northern Ireland strategy built around alienating absolutely everyone? And a stonking success it was!
87 Pleased to hear it, Icarus. You had me worried for a minute.
87. Yes, but apparently that’s his strategy for Deputy Leader as well!
82. This from the man who was still telling the DUP that the deadline date for devolution was sacred….when Tony had already agreed to a delay.
Thats a man at the cutting edge.
Give him his credit through Henry he’s a willing, do what is required, kind of servant.
The tower? Why not give him the Wallace treatment?
6: No I don’t think so. Tories need a fairly small swing for hung parliament but a big one (7%?) for a majority. Or put it another way, if they take 30 seats off Labour it’s hung, but they need a whopping 125 gains off anyone to get a majority. Hung parliament very likely IMHO.
78 OK Henry. I think we’re in sync now.
I’ll be sending a third shortly.
92 - it doesnt often happen but I think its quite likely this time……
86. Has anyone be following what has been reported on Radio 4?
I assume its been reported elsewhere on the Beeb but basically No 10 ’sources’ are saying Tony announces his intentions tomorrow, he doesn’t resign. He stays on as leader and PM, does all the handshaking etc at some big international meetings and is still at the helm.
See my post at 9
95…until the new leader is selected…
96. There ya go, it has two listeners….
84. I am surprised I thought the Conservatives were focusing laserlike on the new Bristol North West. Any views on the others, or am to infer what I will from Liberal Democrat silence on this.
99 Even if I had the list of LibDem targets I would hardly post it here! Though anyone with access to Wells/Baxter can have a pretty good guess where they might be. Toss in a few where the local party is strong/wealthy/has a good PPC/a very weak main opponent and that won’t lead you far wrong.
Re 64, Ted, “reminded of a comment on Kerron Cross: that the plural of Hain is “A Smug of Hains””
The Lib Dems are very pleased with the aggregate vote share in nearly all their held seats (not just ahead but ahead by more than previous rounds of locals) and in the vast majority of their target seats.
With spreads like these its safe to say that the election winner will be Betfair. Rip-off Britain strikes again!
market is swinging pretty firmly to q3 now
104 ?!
Slec - Betfair does not determine ‘the spread’, the punters do. It makes its money from commission on profits.
Darling at 1.57 to be Chancellor with Ladbrokes, that’s a crazy price!
106. Especially if you got on him at bigger odds a while back. Woohoo!
It seems to be him or Straw but I’m not sure on the latter for the Chancellor post. I could see him doing Foreign Office again.
PtP thank you - I was looking at the Plaid spread and it seemed like a pretty good business opportunity!
Re 102, Park Town boy, in Eastbourne, the Liberal Democrats did well, however I did not see them doing well elsewhere. They went backwards in Lewes, Mid Sussex and Horsham for example. They were never anywhere in Crawley and continue to be nowhere in Crawley.
Lewes is already a Liberal Democrat seat, I presume some effort is being made in Mid Sussex as the PPC was dropped in, I have no idea about Horsham, but Sussex seems to be a bit of a problem.
I could see Straw back in the foreign office too, his short price for next home secretary seems way off beam.
109 You are welcome, slec (in NY). You are thinking of Spread Betting firms, like Sporting Index, which do set the spread and make a profit on it.
You need to buy Mike’s book! It explains all this, and much more besides. I’m sure the must be a bookshop in NY that stocks it.
The Lib Dem Cllr Fudge (true name) on Newsnight is terrible!
HenryG, there are few enough Labour posters here - we should try not to fall out! You’re just bitter that you’re about to lose your bet
Oh, BTW only 112 hits to get to 30,000 hits on my blog!
Wow, only a couple of months ago I was struggling to get over 10,000!
Your blog Benedict? Pray tell us more…….
Re 115, Matthew, funny you should ask, I do normally like to keep it as my little secret, but I do have a blog which you can find here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
114. Listen Benedict having meta tags on your site including ‘next door wives’, ‘Free music downloads’ & ‘honeys on cam’ will get anyone more visitors to their site….
Tsk, young people these days…..
For the record this confusion has meant I stay out of the market. Let’s wait and see.
Question to the floor…
Will the Ministry of Justice deliver justice by by-passing the Law?
Oh dear, I fear Boris may be in trouble again judging by his appearance on Channel 4 just now. Done up like a kipper, but I can sense half a million chips on Scouse shoulders twitching away right now…
Again…
119
I would prefer: “Will the Ministry of Justice deliver justice by by-passing bylaws?”
Bye!
Re 120, Bob, where exactly did he stick his foot?
111 - Mike’s book is great - see my review on Amazon.
Perhaps somebody else should put one there… along the lines of the improve your assertiveness / spelling / giving up smoking book adverts.
“UNLOCK THE SECRETS OF BETTING ON POLITICS: AB of Trottiscliffe says ‘I was a complete novice until I read Mike’s book. Now I have a regular second income… last month I made £30,000 on political betting.’ YOU TOO COULD MAKE A FORTUNE BY FOLLOWING MIKE’S SIMPLE STEPS.”
I can see a full page ad in Old Moore’s Almanack already.
122 - for reasons best known to himself, the Shadow Higher Education Minister chose to relive the Bigley/Scousers editorial affair in a Channel 4 documentary on offensive humour. Due to some choice editing no doubt, he ended up defending Ann Winterton’s cockle gag, jokes about the tsunami, and having a good laugh about his display of contrition to the people of Liverpool - “we were going to sign a book of condolence for Mr Bigley, but when we got there, someone had nicked it. [PAUSE] Now, I’m going to get in trouble for that again now, look what you’ve made me do…”
He’ll probably get away with it…
124 - I think he got confused and thought he was on HIGNFY.
75: Swansea West 2005 notional and 2007 Assembly
2005 Notional: Lab 42% Lib Dem 29% Con 16% Plaid 7% Green 2% UKIP 2% Others 3%
2007 Assembly: Lab 32% Lib Dem 26% Con 19% Plaid 16% UKIP 7%
Re 92: Con swings
1% swing to Con: Lab maj 28
2% swing to Con: Lab short by 7
3% swing to Con: Lab short by 21
4% swing to Con: Lab short by 29
5% swing to Con: Con short by 20
6% swing to Con: Con maj 6
7% swing to Con: Con maj 48
Re 100: Top 25 Lib Dem Targets as of Notionals 2005
1 Guildford
2 Solihull
3 Rochdale
4 Oxford East
5 Edinburgh South
6 Hampstead and Kilburn
7 Eastbourne
8 Islington South and Finsbury
9 Watford
10 Ealing Central and Acton
11 Aberdeen South
12 Weston-Super-Mare
13 Ludlow
14 West Dorset
15 Meon Valley
16 Central Devon
17 Edinburgh North and Leith
18 Torridge and West Devon
19 Wells
20 Totnes
21 West Worcestershire
22 Newbury
23 Filton and Bradley Stoke
24 City of Durham
25 Norwich South
I’m not sure whether the following from the Press association helps, but to me it does sound rather more likely to be Q3:
Tony Blair will announce on Thursday that he is standing down as Labour leader after a decade in Downing Street, paving the way for Gordon Brown to succeed him as Prime Minister.
Mr Blair will first tell Cabinet colleagues of his intentions at their regular 9am Thursday meeting at No 10, then travel to his Sedgefield, Co Durham, constituency to make a public pronouncement.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman ended weeks of speculation by saying: “There will be a Cabinet tomorrow morning at 9 o’clock. I don’t think that will be quite as long as usual. The Prime Minister will then go elsewhere to make an announcement and that will be all that happens.
“There will be nothing said in Downing Street.”
Mr Blair remains as Labour leader until his successor is formally elected at a special party conference, and as Prime Minister until he hands in his seals of office to the Queen.
Labour’s National Executive Committee will meet within 72 hours of Thursday’s confirmation to draw up a detailed timetable for an election to replace both Mr Blair and his deputy John Prescott, who has already announced he will quit at the same time as the Prime Minister.
The whole election process will take about seven weeks, meaning Mr Brown - if he is elected - will take office some time in early July.
95.”but basically No 10 ’sources’ are saying Tony announces his intentions tomorrow, he doesn’t resign. He stays on as leader and PM”
Am I right in thinking that the Labour party and political opinion had favoured him standing down as leader to trigger a leadership contest, but remaining PM till handover?
If this is true it suggests that the NEC, Blair and Brown have reached an agreement on a coronation date which will accommodate the deputy leadership contest because they do not realistically expect a leadership challenge to emerge from McDonnel & Co?
Excuse my confusion but the story seems to change day by day this week.
130.PtP, you read my mind!
Re 124, Bob, He didn’t did he?
I cringe every time Boris opens his mouth but frequently laugh as well!
130 Brilliant, PfP. That is the clearest and most comprehensive statement I have seen so far.
It is not definitive. Nothing can be, until TB has spoken, the NEC has acted, and Betfair has ruled. Nevertheless, this points in the direction of Q3 and I will be punting accordingly.
Many thanks.
132 Chris D - Such a helpful post should be properly attributed. He is PfP - Peter from Putney - and not yours truly.
Wish I had posted it, but I didn’t.
Re 126, Harry Hayfield, I am not quite sure which planet you are from, but your Welsh assembly elections, notionals seem to show the Liberal Democrats 13 points ahead of the Conservatives, yet they managed to get half the seats.
Is there a problem in the way PR works in Wales?
133 But note the huge shortening of the odds on Q2 over the past hour - I give up!
137 My dear friend, Peter, back form, not whispers.
129&134.Apologies and many thanks Peter from Putney.
137 - PtP, I agree. This is a lively maket for almost 1.00am, the odds are now shifting to Q3!
136. PfP/PtP. Curiouser and curiouser.
To me it now seems very likely that Betfair will adjudicate that Blair officially ceases to be leader of the Labour party when Brown replaces him as leader. However this still looks tight between Q2 and Q3 to me as it could easily be June 30th that Brown becomes Labour leader and then July 2nd that he becomes PM. For the time being I would call it roughly evens the pair and worth backing either significantly odds against.
141 It could be 30th June, if there is no slippage whatever in the timetable. Remember too that HM is in Scotland on that day, so no rush to meet that deadline.
I would now back Q3 down to evens.
140 Yes PfP, this has kept me from my be for an hour, but who needs sleep while this is going on!
You are a star for publishing that PA report!
What’s going on? (As Harold Wilson once famously joked).
It looks like someone knows something. Odds on Q2 have collapsed!
140. I agree, stjohn, this is exactly my reading - that Betfair will rule the transition being when Brown becomes party leader, which is going to be pretty much on the cusp of June/July, slightly leaning towards June 30th.
I’ve chosen an interesting 24 hours to have my first political bet and make my first posts to pbc!
140 Just been looking at today’s “quality” papers - they all seem pretty bvague as to the likely procedures/dates re change of leadership. I always understood that Blair had to resign first to even trigger a contest.
144 Welcome Martin T - this market is enlivened because of the very fine timing between the months of June and July. Believing in beginners luck, which way have you bet pray?
May be its because the NEC has announced that they are shortening the campaign to 6 weeks. And both Blair and Prescott will have resigned the leader ship by this weekend. I don’t know what time the PA report was published, but this is what all tomorrows papers are saying just published right now - Times, Guardian, Telegraph, etc. They all mention that this has been confirmed by Downing Street.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/the_blair_years/article1769545.ece
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/tonyblair/story/0,,2076222,00.html
146 thanks for the welcome, Peter from Putney. My own intervention was based on my judgement that there were so many unknown factors that a price on Q2 which had dropped to 1.11 must indicate a value lay, which I took. I then traded this out when the price rose to 1.36 the next morning - leaving me with a nice profit on Q3 and a break even on Q2.
147. Will L. In neither of your references @ 147 is there a statement that the NEC has announced they have shortened the campaign to 6 weeks. Please correct me if I am wrong or else direct me to the reference which supports your statement.
147 Will, I missed the six weeks announcement, which rather pushes things back towards Q2. The odds are all over the place.
The Press Ass’n piece was timed at around 6pm Weds evening.
149 In fact the Guardian link says “Mr Blair will not quit as prime minister until the beginning of July, giving the party seven weeks to conduct its contests for leader and deputy leader.
It also states that the electoral college will be conducted on June 30..
149 stjohn I am still green on both quarters - hope you are too.
Tip for you - lay Derby not to gain the third place promo slot at approx 3.2-1!
Welcome Martin T, but if this is your first political bet, you certainly picked a tough one!
151 Paul - but it’s not about when he ceases to be PM, but rather when he quits as leader.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/the_blair_years/article1769545.ece
“But for much of his remaining six weeks in power Mr Blair will be absent from Downing Street”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/the_blair_years/article1769387.ece
“Party sources pointed out yesterday that the NEC could accelerate the process and shorten the election to six weeks”
155.
The Times (and The Sun) tends to be the ones that get the ‘exclusives’.
153 - Peter did you get onto Q3 at threes + ?
They also confirm that if there are no other candidates then Brown will become leader automatically without a conference. Any way I’m out of this market. And am off to bed. Good luck, whatever you choose to do.
156 - True, but I thought the Times piece was vague - anyone seen today’s Mail?
155 PfP - What I think Paul is pointing to is the difficulty created if there is any delay between appointing a new Labour Leader and the change in PM. Looks like the NEC meeting could be on Saturday 30th June, but Queeny is in Scotland.
Would they go ahead with the announcement while she’s out of town? Brown would presumably then pop round on the Monday (does the Queen work weekends?) and take over the seals. Hmmm. Possible, but awkward.
Hairline decision. It’s bang on the cusp. And that’s without any timetable slippage.
LOL! Tricky!!
158 I’ve been backing it down from tens, PfP!!
152.Hi Peter from Putney. I am effectively also the same though trading prices at present but able to “green” things back.
I will consider your Derby recommendation. I hesitate because I know how some football fans tend to be overly pessimistic about their team from a self protection basis?! However I note your previous comments that you have made money laying Derby this season. Can you briefly support the case for laying Derby? 3.2/1 does look good odds when there are 4 contenders. Is it as simple as that and who is laying the odds? Betfair I guess.
The NEC is meeting on May 12th to trigger the election. It is the Electoral College Conference that would have met on June 30 - and now may now meet on June 23rd. Good night, and good luck.
147. June 30th seems doubtful to me: it is a Saturday. Surely Gordon won’t want the news announced on a Saturday, which will hit his media coverage hard…
It seems to me it’ll be either June 29th or July 2nd.
162 - stjohn, yes Betfair. Derby have a really tough play-off opener on Saturday away to Southampton which I expect them to lose - thereby providing an opportunity to trade out at a profit. Even were they to survive this “semi, I expect WBA to win the final. Derby had a great season until mid February, but have really lost their way since.
155. Will L. Very useful reference to the possibility that “party sources could accelerate the process and shorten the election to six weeks”. I did not know this and agree this is important and useful information to inform all our judgments. But to be EXACT your post at 147 is inaccurate when you state that the NEC has announced that they are shortening the campaign to six weeks. They haven’t done so and your statement that they have done so has the potential to mislead punters.
I don’t mean to pick an argument with you as I welcome the useful references you post but I am sure you would accept the need for accurate information.
Good night all - plenty more excitement on his market early tomorrow I fancy!
Yes and it’s goodnight from me too.
What a fascinating night, and plenty more to come tomorrow.
164. Very good point Chrisco - interesting that nobody has picked up on this point.
TV news bulletins are far shorter on Saturdays and also not so much in prime time. BBC1 at 5.10pm and 10.10pm. ITV very late often around 11pm.
This is the sort of point Alastair Campbell, Mandelson (and indeed Blair and Cameron) would be right on top of and act accordingly. But is Brown even aware of it? I get the impression he may well not be. If so it gives an insight into one of his key weaknesses as leader.
(Unless of course he doesn’t want people to notice his election!)
169 Mike - after waiting 10 long years, I don’t suppose he much cares whether its a Saturday or any other day - and at least he’d be sure of massive coverage in the Sundays.
Re: 165 sadly, as a Rams fan I agree Derby should be outsiders to go up. EXCEPT the only predictable thing about the top of the Championship this season is that one was mug to make a firm prediction. When Wolves missed a last minute penalty against Bham, having been denied an earlier cast-iron claim, we entered ‘you could not make this up … or if you did you simply would not get away with it.’ So Rams blocking out Saints on Saturday and then winning 1-0 off a shin is not out of the question. And remember that when they hit top spot West Brom folded much more dramatically than Derby. They are under pressure. Much more exciting than two-horse Premiership!
Here’s how the Mail sees it, not everyone’s favourite it has to be said, but it does have generally well-informed writers:
The Prime Minister’s long-awaited confirmation of his departure will pave the way for a seven-week contest to confirm Mr Brown as his successor as both party leader and Premier.
Mr Blair’s last day as Prime Minister is likely to be July 2.
The Chancellor will seize the initiative tomorrow with a passionate statement of his beliefs, backed by a clear message that he commands overwhelming support among Labour MPs.
But many in the party fear the drawnout handover will do Labour yet more damage.
Tory leader David Cameron focused on their frustration on Wednesday with jibes at “the Government of the living dead” and seven weeks of “paralysis”.
Mr Blair will launch the final countdown on his ten-year premiership when he tells constituency activists in Sedgefield he is quitting as Labour leader.
The carefully-choreographed appearance at the Trimdon working men’s club where he started his political career will trigger a massive spin operation to shore up his battered legacy. Downing Street aides reeled off a list of activities they claim will keep Mr Blair busy.He plans to race to Paris tomorrow to be the first national leader to congratulate new president Nicolas Sarkozy in person.
There was also talk of a farewell visit to Washington, reviving speculation that he is preparing to collect the Congressional Medal of Honour he was awarded in 2003.
Although he is handing in his notice, Mr Blair will stay as Labour leader and Prime Minister until his successor is confirmed. But there were clear signs last night that power is ebbing swiftly away from him and towards Mr Brown.
I should have added that the second and last sentences are key as regards timing. Will Betfair’s punters make a dash for Q3 on the strengh of this piece - we shall see.
171 Martin - I’m a fan too, so I hope I’m proved wrong!
135. Er… 126. was talking about Swansea West, not the national total.
Pardonnez-moi for asking an obvious question, but why didn’t Betfair just set its betting prices on the date of Blair ceasing to be PM? Has anyone asked them? Have they given any reason/explanation?
Good Q JohnLoony. There’s been much criticism here of the way Betfair have worded this market. Unless he has to quit as leader in order to trigger an election, there doesn’t seem to be much logic in standing down until he ceases to be PM - does there?
169. That stuff about modern media communications reminds me of Enoch Powell:
(a) When he made his “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, Edward Heath was alerted to the fact that he had made it by media reports. Before making a decision to sack Powell, Heath needed to check the actual script of the speech. Therefore he had to speak to Powell on the phone. But Powell did not have a phone at his home, so he had to phone up Powell’s constituency agent to get him to go to Powell’s house and bring him to a phone.
(b) When Heath was defeated in February 1974, Powell did not have a TV and/or did not watch/listen to the results of the General Election overnight and/or went to bed early; he only found out the result of the election when he was the newspaper on the floor the next morning. The headline was “Heath’s Gamble”. What did that mean, Powell asked himself? He picked up the newspaper and the lower half of the newspaper flopped down to become visible: “Heath’s Gamble Failed”. Whereupon Powell sang the Te Deum in celebration.
177. Also, I understand that the Labour Party’s constitution is also open to interpretation about the meaning of the word “leader”, “acting leader” and so on.
173 - I should have referred to the second and penultimate sentences in the Mail’s article.
So that’s settled then, it’s July 2nd!
178 Whereupon Powell sang the Te Deum in celebration.
Doubtless in Latin - but then come to think of it, you can’t sing it any other way!