So how will Betfair decide?
May 10th, 2007
Uncertainty over the betting market continues until the last
For months many have been saying on the site that the terms of the Blair departure date market added a level of real confusion so that what punters might be betting on is not when he is going but how the betting exchange interprets the rules that it itself set.
Given that all the consensus is that at lunchtime in his Sedgefield constituency Blair will announce that he is stepping down on the final day of June with the new leader being installed as PM on Monday July 2 you would have thought that this was going to be easy.
Yet the Betfair market has been on which quarter Blair will “officially stop being leader” and Q2 finishes on June 30th with Q3 starting on July 1st.
As can been seen on the chart overnight the there has been a changing view on what exactly this will mean with the sentiment at 0200 being on Q2. For by then, it is argued, the new party leader will be in place.
From bitter experience I have learnt never to trust that my interpretation of how Betfair will react
In September 2003 I got it badly wrong on the timing of Alastair Campbell’s departure when the exchange ruled that he had gone on the due date when he was still at Downing Street.
Then there was the mess-up in November 2006 on the US mid-terms market when Betfair decided that there had been a tie in the election for the Senate when the Democrats took control by 51-49. The only problem being that two of those who said before the election that they would caucus with the Democrats did not stand on the party ticket.
Even a clarification to Nick Palmer MP before election day that one of them would be counted was over-ruled when the exchange finally got to settling the market.
So take your chance if you want. I’m not risking anything.
Mike Smithson - author of “The Political Punter“
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Wise comment. Not worth the risk.
I have never done betting at all, so I don’t know what Betfair is like. How did they resond after-the-event to the other events you mention? Did they give a reasoned explanation? What have they said about the current Blair question? Surely lots of people must have asked them for clarification? Have they just not said anything? Are they making up the rules as they go along? Are they making their own profit, or is it one of those things where they balance one lot of people’s money against another lot? And can I get odds on Q4?
2 You cannot be serious - but if you are, Betfair’s price for Q4 is currently 130-1
3. Maybe there won’t be any announcement at all today, and no resignation. It will be a non-event which was never going to happen, and nobody ever said it was going to happen.
When people look through the archives of the newspapers, television news reports and websites, they will only find references to Blair stating that he will stay for a full third term, right up to a general election. Any thought-criminals who falsely remember otherwise will be vapourised.
If Nick had the clarification in advance sounds to me like a verbal contract that they breached
I’m going q3 on this
Me too. I believe it will be Q3 but owing to uncertainty over Betfair’s interpretation, have greened up on Q2 as well.
JohnLoony @ 2 — Betfair make money whoever wins, since they take commission from winning punters. They will make a bit more from one winner than the other but I doubt there is much difference in most cases.
The problem is that this factor — that they make money either way — leads Betfair to open up markets at the drop of a hat without considering how to settle them.
re 7 I wish they has opened a “Deputy leader” market “at the the drop of a hat”. They are actually very cautious in the political area and now do not do the “will they survive in their jobs” markets which attract a lot of attention. Betfair has become boring, unimaginative and very sloppy in the political area. My major political betting is on the Spreadfair spread-betting exchange.
Mike Smithson @ 8 — Betfair probably realised they need the government (and politicians generally) onside to defend the exchange model from attacks by conventional bookmakers.
8. I quite agree. It is absurd that the major domestic election at the moment has no market on what is the primary betting exchange (I’m not counting the leadership election as that’s now become a non-event). Unlike the foregone conclusion that was the Welsh Assembly election, which predictably attracted hardly any money, a deputy leadership election might actually make them some profit as well.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/tonyblair/story/0,,2076201,00.html may interest some of you - shows public opinion somewhere between me and seanT, if you can imagine anyone slipping into that space!
…and possibly bad news for Q3 punters:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/the_blair_years/article1769387.ece
7 surely the rational thing for betfair to do will settle on the Q that makes them the most money. Even if it’s a small amount that would make sense.
Nice to see Lucky Tony bemoaning the fact that public service reform hadn’t gone far enough fast enough because of sticking to tory spending plans in 97. Now whose idea was that? surely he couldn’t be criticising Macavity?
Oh Happy Day!
OT - PtP (or others) - today is the annual outing for Mrs W, when we go off to Chester Races to fritter away the kids’ inheritance. Any tips from anyone? Or shall I revert to the usual strategy of picking topical horses - today I suppose I shall be looking for horses with names like “End of an Era”, “Unfulfilled promise” or “Brown’s Toast”
Betfair won’t pay out til he’s actually gone to the palace to resign right?
14 Robin
If you’d like to ring me about lunchtime, I may be able to help.
Always back Piggott at Chester.
12 If that’s true then it makes even more nonsense of Blair going to the EU summit on 21st knowing he’ll not be PM the following week. He should be at least taking Gordon and Gordon should be doing the negotiating.
Otherwise it would be like the Lib Dem Council in Bournemouth signing off a significant redevelopment that the Tories opposed at 6:30 pm on local election day when they were about to be kicked out - Tony signs up to a number of measures that Gordon has to deliver. No democratic accountability as Blair will be gone.
17. I hear Greville Starkey does well there too…..
19 …and Fred Archer.
Seriously though, Barry Hills horses do very well. And horses with a low draw as it is a very tight track. However I haven’t looked at the card.
15 - No, the Blair Switch Project market is for when he will cease to Labour party leader. Not when he will cease to to be PM.
It could be on the same day, but on the other hand it might not.
22. I can foresee the possibility of Betfair paying out as a dead heat Q2 and Q3 if he ceases to be Labour leader end June 07 and ceases as PM early July 07 although strictly this would be a Q2 result in my opinion.
The possibility that the leadership election will be accelerated is I think starting to shift the balance significantly towards Q2 - though still with major uncertainties (both about dates and Betfair’s interpretation). So I’ve now equalized my position on Q2 and Q3 (previously I was at break even for Q2, with a potential profit on Q3), and am going to call it a day at this point. My first foray into political betting has been a real roller coaster over the last couple of days (when I originally decided to lay Q2 when the price fell to 1.11). In hindsight, I should have equalized my position yesterday, when the price on Q2 had moved out to around 3 (which I was very close to doing) - but you live and learn! I’ll use a bit of my profit to buy Mike’s book, and look forward to my next foray into this new world….
Thanks for the kind comments of those welcoming me to the forum (Peter from Putney, Peter the Punter) - much appreciated.
24 You are very welcome, Martin.
You will find that most markets are much easier than this one and with Mike’s book to hand you should have fun and make a few bob.
Good luck!
23 you might be right stjohn, but I think not - my guess is that Betfair would be very likely to count this as Q2 - going on the ‘ceasing to be labour leader’ as soon as Brown is formally elected by the electoral college (which I think is increasingly likely to be Q2). Which, as you say, they should do according to a strict interpretation of the rules. But there is sufficient ambiguity in all this to make any bet at current prices rather a gamble (which is Mike’s position, of course). I was only happy to enter this market because I was able to lay Q2 at 1.11 (i.e. the equivalent of backing Q3 at 9/1) - which certainly seemed to offer value. I wouldn’t risk money on either position at current prices (between about 1.5 and 2.5).
By the way, in thanking those who welcomed me to the forum in 24, I forgot to thank you for your friendly comments on my initial post a couple of days ago - so thanks! It’s nice that this forum makes new people so welcome.
26. Pleasure Martin T and good luck. Fully agree with all your points above. I have also equalised Q2/Q3 and now expect Q2.
27 Yes, StJohn, the market has settled down at last and I should say 4/6 Q2 is about right, in all the circumstances.
I take it we’re all green now anyway?
O/T - new French poll (BVA/Orange) on the June legislatives.
The UMP is set to win an absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale with 288-344 seats (357 today), the PS 158-200 (141) and the PCF 14-18 (21). Bayrou’s new Mouvement Démocrate is set to trail the commies with 8-13 seats. The current UDF has 29 seats but 22 of these MPs have already pledged to join Sarkozy’s presidential majority as a semi-independent group.
If Connell/Meacher stand how can the leadership election process be somehow speeded up and how can they ignore the Labour Party’s rule calling for a minimum 7 week election period after the date it has been called at an Extraordinary Meeting of the NEC?
Is Blair making his announcement in the Trimdon Labour club? What a cracking sense of irony……..
If there is an accelerated process of 6 weeks I’ll be very pleased.
Not least because this is the timescale that I estimated and punted on heavily towards Q2. This was before the Labour Executive decided it would take 7 weeks.
I know a few people here have been taking value odds for Q3 that were available in recent days and I’ve dipped in myself to a small extent as my previous profit on Q3 was tiny so it tops things up a bit and makes the percentage gain look a bit better.
Q2, though is really where its at for me. Come on you lefties, no 44 signatures!
32 Sign you, bast*rds, sign!
(Guess which Q I’m on.)
I’m green on both Q2 and Q3, so other than a dead heat I don’t mind!
OT. The SNP attempt to lock out Labour from running local councils :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1387388.0.0.php
31: it’s a safe refuge though - the only part of his empire where a Tory candidate polls zero votes!
I see that Blair has now told the Cabinet of his big decision. Bet that came as a bit of a shock…
34 Dead Heat rules would surely make no difference to you, Dan?
In fact due to the flipflopping favorites, I’m also also green both quarters now, but slight preference for Q3. Just trying to wind Yokel up. Hobby of mine.
33. Don’t sign, think about party unity!
Right I’m off for a meeting, should be back just in time to see Tony’s announcement.
36 They’ll be logging into Betfair any moment now then…
re 33. Absoutely PtP. I’m on McDonnell at 1.8 in Spreadfair’s 0-10-25 market so if he is the only runner I do very nicely. This means I lose 1.8 my stake level if he does not stand but get (10 - 1.8) * stake level if he does stand and ends up as runner-up.
38 Yeah…think about Yokel’s bank balance more likely.
July! Just been on Radio 2 news…….it’s all over folks!
Guardian reports electoral college will be 30th June. That makes it Quater 2? At the moment of the declaration in the Hall, Blair ceases to be Leader, but not necessarily ceases to be P.M.: doesn’t that occur when Brown actually goes to the palace, which could be the following day 1st July, Quarter 3?
I can see you betting lot getting royally screwed one way or the other!
Don’t forget that 1st July is the date of the big Diana concert. Knowing this lot’s obsession with news management they’ll want top billing in the news bulletins so perhaps Saturday 30th June might seem more appealing.
Just a thought, I have no financial interest in this matter because Betfair is not for mere mortals such as myself!
The Guardian reports there is a meeting of the NEC this Sunday. Add the minimum 7 week period to that and you get 1 July.
45 - perhaps they’ll announce the result live on stage during the concert, and St Tony will then ascend to the heavens as a grateful nation, and world, looks on in awe…
47. That’s what ‘I’m hearing’ Bob!
O/T (reply to competition thread):
Mister Chip - I very much appreciated, and I’m sure many others did too, the input from yourself & Chris in the runup to Sunday - it added greatly to understanding the election. I think one of the great strengths of pb, as well as the betting info and unrivalled election night coverage, is having informed posters on the site. (PS – what do you actually do – obviously I’m not asking you to “out” yourself but if I remember correctly you’re a European policy analyst, is that right?)
PtP – will have a bash at doing a combined spreadsheet, and if there were a Betfair market on the overall winner, I think Jan from Norway would probably be trading at 1.02 already.
Benedict White – good to have seen you at the book launch so can put a face to the name – I won’t pretend not to have heard of your blog (!) but will you be standing for election again next May?
Andy Cooke – many apologies for not including you in the entries. I had actually made a note to add you in, but by the time I got round to compiling the results, at the end of a very long but exciting few days, forgot – profuse apologies.
Plus of course a special mention to Mike & Robert for keeping the site going in the small hours of Friday morning.
Obviously I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled as events unfold today, but I’d be interested on people’s views on the following questions:
Do we think Brown will face a challenger, and if so will it be McDonnell or Meacher?
Are we agreed that a minority SNP government is now the likeliest outcome?
Is there a now a strong chance that Bertie Ahern will lose power?
Finally Mister Chip & Chris, another question on France (!) - is there any significance in the regional differences between the Left / Right swing on Sunday (Left = Brittany, Paris region, Atlantic coast, Massif Central, southwest, DOM-TOM, Right = North, East, Normandy, Rhone-Alpes and Med coast). Economics, politics, a combination of both, or does each region have differing reasons? Thanks again.
By the way, the blanket coverage of this non-event is staggering. Wall to wall “news” coverage, special supplements, retrospectives, correspondents on Sedgefield village green reporting on nothing - fair enough when he’s gone, but he’s only making the bleeding announcement!
You’d think he’d just died, not simply about to confirm what we already know anyway.
My particular favourite is ‘live pictures’ of a car travelling to an airfield and then the excitement of a plane taking off, it’s all just too much!
[49] DC, it’s simple. The French are a logical people, so they vote according to which side of the map they live in
Ah, that old betfair uncertainty!
Betting on interpretations rather than facts, only for the foolish!
51 etc - The legacy of 24 ‘rolling news’. They’ve been waiting for this moment for months now - all planned ahead. Live report of the speech from Trimdon, vox pops with locals and no doubt from ‘marginals’, The Legacy, what next for Blair?, What will Brown do/bring to the table?, Do you like Brown vox pops etc etc etc ad nauseam ad infinitum.
Lost a fortune have you Ben?…….My sympathy!
I look at Betfair and haven’t got a clue what it all means but I guess the ‘regulars’ have bagged all the juicy profits already…..
Re 55, Matthew, if that was directed at me, know, because we all established that there was uncertainty in the wording years ago.
It was meant for you Benedict, in a tongue in cheek way!
Hey, I even clicked through to your blog last night. It’s a bit dry isn’t it……….?
Well, if betting on politics gets too boring, you could always trying betting on how many of the Windies squad get sent home before their cricket tour’s over:
http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/engvwi/content/current/story/293601.html
Not a dry eye in the house! I knew they’d miss him but I didn’t realize it would make Diana’s demise seem like another day at the office! Anyway he wasn’t all bad and listening to the tributes you remember what a breath of fresh air he was. Even those of us who despaired of some of his foreign policy must give him credit for being such a human being after those stuffed shirt Conservatives that we had to put up with for 18 years. History I predict will be very kind to him…..
…..Talking of predictions I understand I missed the wooden spoon in the French election contest by two places! Like Labour it looks like my luck’s changing!
59. Roger, I am not sure if history will be kind to him if his only lasting legacy ends up being Iraq in the minds of voters 20 years from now.
At the rate I going with the New Year predictions I can see you handing over the wooden spoon to me!
Q3 price back in again - deary me.
Dispatches on C4 next Monday should be fun…
http://forums.digiguide.com/topic.asp?id=20459
Gordon Brown: Fit For Office?.
Gordon Brown is about to be Britain’s Prime Minister. And yet some very senior figures on his own side are certain he is unfit for office: one has called him a “control freak”, another “psychologically flawed” and one serving cabinet minister has said he’d be a “f***ing disaster” as Prime Minister.
51: and now the pictures of him leaving Teesside Airport in a Jag. I do feel the BBC is letting down licence-payers though by not having helicopter footage of his motorcade journeying up the A1 to Sedgefield. That would really have added something to the coverage…
Re 57, Matthew, if it was wet, the computers would get frazeled
61 Ah, a hagiography then?
61 - Old news! So some people in the PLP don’t like Gordon - whoop-de-do! Go on, wheel them out again. Let them bury their careers even further in the sh*t! C4 must be scraping the barrel.
62 Bob. Cameron saying “Vote Blue go Green” didn’t mean green with envy !!
Kelvin McKenzie on ITV, this is the ‘real’ analysis folks!
66: not at all, I am much looking forward to 2010 and TV coverage of Cameron cycling off to Buckingham Palace and then back to Downing Street…
Any sign of Bob Marshall Andrews?
64 Witan. I thought a “hagiography” was Christine Hamilton’s memoirs !!
69. Today is not a day for soundbites……!
62 especially with shots of a grateful nation standing on all the A1’s bridges, scattering rose petals in front of his car….
49 - Double Carpet, yes I work as an researcher/analyst on European economic policy and political risk in the City. I don’t bet myself but find some of the comments here very useful - Chris(from Paris) and blue moon especially.
Chris will be better than I on regional breakdowns but, like here, there are certain areas that are traditionally left and right - largely based on where heavy industry is or used to be. What was interesting May 6 was how well Sarkozy did in PS bastions in, for example, Pas-de-Calais. Royal’s 52% score there compares with Mitterrand’s 57%, 58% and 65% in 1974, 1981 and 1988. Left strongholds Dunkerque and Tourcoing actually fell to Sarkozy.
GERMAN ELECTION question to anyone out there with some knowledge or expertise. I’m interested in the Bremen state elections this weekend (Paddy Power is running a book). My interest in how well the CDU will perform - compared with its dismal 2003 result. Any thoughts from anyone?
68 Bob. Why ?? … is the Tour De France coming to London again ??
Will Prezza be running into Hull later with the Chariots of Fire music playing in the background ?
Keep forgetting about Prescott. It’s a 2 for the price of 1 situation isn’t!?
…isn’t it!?
72 - fantastic! They could splice together footage of Blair’s journey to Sedgefield with Diana’s final journey - classic. Has anyone got Armando Iannucci’s email address?
It all reminds me a bit of OJ being chased down the freeway in LA all those years back crossed with Diana’s funeral parade.
Great moment in Treasury Questions just now. The speaker intervened and referred to Gordon Brown as Prime Minister instead of chancellor…..cue lots of jeering and an embarassed retreat by the speaker
62: no, just seen some overhead footage of the motorcade. I spoke too soon. No rose petals as far as I could see…
Breaking news: Blair motorcade just turned off Sedgefield bypass!
79. The important difference being that at the time OJ was just a suspect!
80 Bob. Blossom falling from the trees….
“I wept, for I had longed to see him hanged.”
Is Sean T still in the States? Probably watching on ‘Fox news’ if he is! His contribution would be very welcome…….
84.
This huge “love-in” is surely bad news for El Gordo - he’s going to be Camilla to Blair’s Diana…
85 Matthew. “Fox News” approve of a right wing leader !
87 Jamie. More like the Prince Philip !
Not long to go now. In the words of Charles Wesley: Rejoice, again I say, Rejoice.
Blair shows us how aPM should leave office. Genius!
89. Without the jokes ?
91. With a police investigation still ongoing……very dignified,yes.
So we’ll get the exit speech and the rate interest rise on screen as ‘breaking news’ at the same time………genius!
91. I think that it shows us how beneficial GE’s are, especially if it means that we don’t have to watch Blair making several encores as he leaves the stage.
91
Still time for the sleaze charges before he leaves in 7 weeks time.
They’re not bopping to D Ream, please no……..
William Hill’s 5/2 about Darling next chancellor (they have Balls fav at 9/4) is a cracking price (as well as an arb). They let me have £100 on the phone.
Ladbrokes still have Darling at 1.57!
96 john. Party pooper !!
Still some 1.1 on interest rates going up by 0.25 on b/f
98 They only let me have £50 the swines….
ITV have Campbell on hand………
98. Thanks Aaron.
102 - you must officially be twice as good as me
100
From the TV scenes at Sedgefield the locals seem delighted that he’s going with background music of’things can only get better’.
106. I bet D:Ream are rubbing their hands at the royalties for this month
97 - I would have thought the Evita soundtrack would be more appropriate
Where do we go from here? This isn’t where we intended to be.
We had it all You believed in me I believed in you …..
Hills also have a “D Primarillo” in the betting at 50/1 - what an awful concept for a love-child!
Flip-flopping between Q2 and Q3 over the past 15 hours has improved my green position by £30 on both - better than a poke in the eye I suppose, but quite hard going. This market was more active at 1.00am this morning than it is now!
I’ve seen several ‘Thank you’ banners…….
Right I am off to walk the dog, let me know if there are any political developments while I am out.
112 Chris D. “Walk the dog” has a slightly different inference to our American viewers !!
Here is a site devoted to thanking Tony if anyone wants to shed a tear or two….SeanT might enjoy
http://www.thankyoutony.com/messages.html
William Hill cut Daling to 6/4 for Chancellor
114 great site, particularly liked this
“P.S. On a lighter note: My wife has shifted her home decorating tastes from French Country to English Country in the aftermath of the war.”
That’ll teach them!
0.25% up interest rates
117. See 101 I hope !
117: let’s hope they keep that banner there during Blair’s speech
At long last……here we go…….
Q3 price now weakening yet again - doesn’t anyone know what this timetable is to be?
How much of a raise is it to go to 5.5%?
98 Would only let me have £25, Aaron.
Must be scared of me. Grrr!!!
Estuary English mode deployed……
71 …. but I feel the boot of history on my backside.
124: was nearly in People’s Princess mode then there for a minute
122. Just a quarter of a per cent. Leaves it open for another 25 bases pts next month though….
27 June
June 27th…..
Last day as PM 27th June - Q2 then
Free money on Betfair!
But not for long one suspects !
Self praise is no recommendation Tony……
131 Yes, and someone has just laid more at 1.05 if I’m not mistaken.
!!!
Masses of money is being laid on Q2
131, 134 and more at 1.06! Whatever is going on?
Remember the Labour party could still mess up the count - even with only one candidate - and if any thing happens to Gordon then Blair will stay on.
But the wording says ‘When will Blair be REPLACED’…
136 Position closing, pure and simple.
136 - someone with the cash and the inclination will eventually mop it all up, I expect - maybe leaving 1.01 available to reflect the uncertainty of events.
He’ll step down on 27/6 - Q2 wins. If anyone wants, there’s a lot of cash to clean up
139 - why… when they could wait until June 27th and get all of their money instead of closing it short?
142 Certainty dear boy, certainty.
A ‘mea culpa’ moment……
Now he really is talking bollocks…
125, lol, lebanon did for him
“I did what I thought was right” will be his political epitaph.
And his parting words to a nation facing life under Gordon - “Good luck” - seem highly appropriate. I think we’ll need it!
An excellent political speech … you just know why the Tories are glad to see the back of him !!
Tony won’t be PM, but the Tories will probably not see the back of him at the next GE.
147 - the simple fact is that almost everyone tries to do what they think is right. You often can’t question people’s sincerity… but the actual question is “Was it right in the first place?”
re 117. So to the bitter end bad news is being buried. Shouldn’t have expected anything else really. Perhaps it’ll get half a sentence on page 47 of tomorrow’s newspapers.
I liked the bit at the end when he said reality was in duller colours black and grey, shame he didn’t add Brown!
Eddie @ 142 — the people laying 1.05 are almost certainly those who backed Q2 at much bigger prices now freeing up funds. By taking profits now (and giving up 5%-ish) they can use the money to bet on other things.
That 5% the layers seem to be giving up is misleading. It has to be compared with the Betfair commission rate of up to 5%. The price for cashing in early will be zero for those on 5% commission up to 3% for those on 2% commission.
149 Jonathan. Only if Gordon is in trouble.
Does anyone know where i can find the contents of the memo by Mandelson to Brown in 1994 as to why he should back Blair because of his Southern appeal. I just want to see how applicable the contents of the memo is today still.
154 I think Brown will learn from Gore. We’ll see.
Good on ya,Tony,you’re probably one of the best PMs I’ll see in my lifetime
Can we get on on him being PM again? Could well pull a Gladstone after a disasterous Cameron.
Jonathan You sound like a Thatcherite around 1991. The Mummy never returned and nor will the Liar.
114 Here is a site devoted to thanking Tony if anyone wants to shed a tear or two….SeanT might enjoy
http://www.thankyoutony.com/messages.html
There is actually one person in the UK who wants to thank Tony (but you have to go to page 8 to find him/her)
154 - A former deputy who goes on to lose an election. Sounds like he’s learnt plenty from him allready.
O/T - Apparently the news of Tony’s departure has now reached the far east.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zYsUqAYg6c
At least he didn’t claim credit for inventing the internet……..
49- 73-
Regional swings have different explanations :
- Royal consolidated traditional strongholds in the south-west (traditional anticlerical, radical socialist area) she was helped in this region by the anti-sarko stance of Bayrou (the local man)
- In the south-west of the Massif central the Chirac effect disappeared : ever since he got elected there in 1967, this sub-region of the south-west hd abandoned its traditional left-leaning tendencies to support chirac adb his neo-gaullist friends. With him gone the left took back those places;
- In paris itself the “bobo” vote for Bayrou heavily reprted itself on royal in the second round. In the banlieues the polarization was heavy : leafy or average suburbs voted sarkozy, run-down estates voted Royal with impressive majorities
- Sarkozy progressed (compared to Chirac) in all regions where Le Pen used to be strong : le pen supporters voted more for him than they did for Chirac in 1995. This explains the swings in all the eastern half of France + traditional industrialized regions like Nord Pas de Calais + some parts of the south-west (Tarn et garonne, Lot et Garonne, Pyrénnées atlantiques)
Generally speaking the rural and peri-urban vote for Sarkozy was high, the cities (even some traditionnally right-leaning ones) voted for Royal
Blears on BBC2………. if you dare….!
What a humble leader Tony Blair was. What a great man.
From a citizen of the Greatest Nation on Earth.
161 - Gore didn’t lose the election - he won 500,000 more votes than Bush.
That 5% the layers seem to be giving up is misleading. It has to be compared with the Betfair commission rate of up to 5%. The price for cashing in early will be zero for those on 5% commission up to 3% for those on 2% commission.
Nonsense, I’m afraid - you pay commission on your net winnings from a market.
165 - That really desrves a vomiticon.
Well what a relief. It’s clearly Q2 and we can all forget about analysing the intricacies of the Labour Party rules and Betfair’s interpretation of them.
Betfair off the hook! Wonder if they’ll learn from it?
166 - The US has always had an electoral-college system. Gore lost the election.
Aaron @ 167 — well, not quite nonsense but wrong in detail. Laying off reduces net winnings on which commission is charged. Of course, there will still be commission to pay on the other .95.
As a foreigner (and a right-winger) I’m sometimes a bit surprised about the hatred and disdain Blair seems to inspire, occasionally also at PB. Comparing him to the abysmal standard of Norwegian politicians (included the most famous of them, the authoritarian and pompous Gro Harlem Brundtland) and other Europeans, his personal qualities, achievements and not least oratory stands out.
History will be kind to him, and we will still see quite a lot of him on the international scene, I think.
BB - “Blair will stand down on 27 June”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6639945.stm
i.e. BBC. Another great exclusive from Will L.
via the BBC
170 - you seriously believe bush won more votes in florida than gore….er…ok.
A question-think back to May 2nd 1997 (for me,one of the most beautiful moments in my life)-would you rather be here today or then ,10 years ago?
172 Oh, PB has its share of yah-boo merchants, Jan, of all political colors. Fortunately it has many well informed and balanced commentators too and is vastly suprerior to most other comparable sites in that respect.
172 Jan. Tories hate Blair because he had the temerity to win three elections and pull the Conservative Party much further to the centre than they would ever want.
Charlotte Atkins (Staffordshire Moorlands) has declared for Harman. Harriet has now 41 public endorsements.
177 I had a general relativity final exam paper on that day Despite it being very sunny great day, I would rather not have to sit that exam again.
171 - yes. In principle laying off to all-green at a perfectly fair price actually reduces commission paid in the long run - you can even take a marginally unfair price.
However the greater force at work here is people’s desire to free up funds - eventually someone with thousands to spare will accommodate them all and wait for their interest.
At 4PM today McDonnell and Meacher will say who will drop out between the 2
re 168. I’d imagine that after today’s outpourings TB has just sent shares of all antiemetic manufacturers soaring.
I feel a sense of shame Patrick, perhaps I’m alone in that (I seriously doubt it though) but for me that’s indelible.
181,Fair play:wink:
179 - I don’t hate him. I certainly dislike him, but for reasons other than him beating us. And many, many of us are happy with the move back to the center DC has presided over.
There are plenty of Labour supporters who seem to hate Mre Thatcher. But I wouldn’t suggest this is just because she beat them three times on the trot.
183 Andrea. Did you see BMA’s bitter musings earlier ??
Sarko has contacted Hubert Vedrine the former French Socialist Foreign Minister to ask him to join the Government. Vedrine is said to be considering it.
188. Jack, no, I was at uni all morning. What did he do?
Betfair back price now 1.02 with a huge amount waiting to lay at 1.01 — probably a lot from people who took the 1.2 and downwards in the last hour or so.
187 Max. You’re just part of the soggy centre.
Are you dripping wet or faintly damp ??
June 27 is a Wednesday. Does that mean we’ll get one final PMQs from Tone?
Patrick-
the end of an era- Britain is a much more prosporous, confident, and tolerant country than it was 10 years ago, and it is for me the greatest country on earth. I could think of no better country to live and work. How much Blair and Nulab has contributed is arguable- at best they have led the way, at worse they have not stopped progress. This has been one of the best periods of British history, and I think the vast majority of us are lucky to be around at this time.
183. I seriously hope it is Meacher. McDonnell will get a lot of press, the media love a contest and the public will be intrigued. Crucially, McDonnell has the sort of soft-left manner that people like. He talks common sense/compassion instead of Prescott/Skinner type class war. Trident/Inequality/Iraq/Privatisation should all play wel for him.
Brown will still do it though.
190 Andrea. Apart from publicly giving Hain the kiss of death endorsement, BMA gave a vibrant impression of a man sucking a barrel of lemons on the Blair legacy.
I don’t mean to brag. Yet again anyone acting on my information for Q2 made money - although unfortunately I wasn’t active on this one for the reasons Mike mentioned. In the end it is cleanly Q2 - and no worries over definition of the question. Congratulations to everyone on Q2.
Three winners - SNP, Sarko, Q2.
The first two made me a net of £11,000. The last wasn’t active on.
193. Almost certainly - Blair would love to go out with one final theatrical act.
196. Oh poor Hain.
At least Clare can’t nominate anyone this time