The end of an era
May 10th, 2007-
What will politics be like in a world without Blair?
We have known for months that this was coming but still the hard fact that Tony Blair will not be Prime Minister from June 27th still comes as a shock.
Politics have been so framed for so long by Blair that’s it’s going to be hard adjusting to what things will be like without him.
Will this mean that Labour can start to rebuild its popularity or has Blair been the bridge for Labour to reach groups of voters who would never have considered the party? Is his party going to be a more or a less formidable election winning machine without him?
Life is going to be very interesting and uncertain and I cannot wait for that first PMQ clash when Brown is facing Cameron across the chamber.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
In short Mike, Brown is not the vote winner or bridge builder that Blair was.
This is definately Labours loss. I have to say I am pleased he is no longer our opponent!
Does anyone thing that Brown is going to have what it takes to do weekly PMQ’s? He never seems to want to answer the difficult questions himself in the past - something he will not be able to do facing Cameron in the future. He can’t let junior ministers answer Cameron’s questions.
Actually, all this Q2 stuff - isn’t it Q3?
Although McDonnell will be announced the winner of the contest on June 27th, he won’t actually replace Blair as PM until July 2/3. The winner of the contest is the new Labour leader. It’s a few days later that he’ll become PM???
reposted by Pimpernel May 10th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Watching Blair’s plea for clemency just shows what a masterful operator he has been. As a Tory supporter, it simply beggars belief to me that Labour has forced from office the only real electoral asset it has, in favour of a dull, dour, inarticulate performer like Brown. Watch how Cameron has grown in confidence in his Commons performances over the past 18 months. He’ll wipe the floor with Brown. Unfortunately, nobody watches PMQs and they rarely get shown on the news. That said, Brown’s public appearances have all been embarrassing, toe-curling affairs - he is going to have to change his entire personality if he is to become electable. And I can’t see that happening.
Labour are finished, as of today.
The reign of the charlatan finally comes to an end. The embarassing epilogue remains to be played out in the courts.
As the water reaches the deck of the Titanic, Blair boards the golden lifeboat leaving Brown at the helm.
The Conservative victory at the next general election was virtually sealed today.
But Cameron doesn’t ask difficult questions. Brown wipes the floor with Osbourne, he shouldn’t find Cameron tooo difficult.
O/T local Tories in Harborough have headlines in the local paper that they will move to weekly rubbish collections. In the article it says they are looking into it. If they do, council tax will rise dramatically if they don’t they will look like frauds.
Rather like the Tories nationally methinks.
7. Have you been watching treasury questions in a parallel universe ?
Brown can’t even look GO in the eye - turns his back on him and rants at the speaker.
7. Last Thursday’s election results would suggest the general public has a different view of who the real ‘frauds’ are.
3 - no, because the Betfair market is
“When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?”
Apparently, he will cease to be the leader of the Labour party on June 27th. Then he will be replaced on July 2nd/3rd. So there is a small interregnum by the looks of it.
4 and 6 - I assume you have both heavily backed a Tory GE win at 2.9 on Betfair then.
Incredibly good odds for something that is “virtually sealed”.
4 Bob. “Labour are finihed, as of today.”
A level of Tory compalcency that Labour will be pleased to see replicated.
5 Scallywag. Do tell us when you get sent down !!
3. Blair goes to the Palace on 27th - his replacement also goes to the Palace on 27th….its Q2. Assuming it is Brown I think we may see technically more competent government (goodbye sofa) and less dazzling Commons performance - the latter only really impacting the morale of Labour back benches, unless there is a parade of howlers from Brown or thrashings from Cameron….which I doubt. Net, in the short term, for the public, things may appear to get ‘better’. Longer term Brown is obviously not ‘a nice Tory at heart’ that many middle-England small c conservatives thought Blair was….so, as Tony frequently said he wished, the next election may be fought on policies…..
As to Blair’s ‘legacy’ I think the short term view of ‘a success domestically, a failure internationally’ may unwind as the true cost of PFI becomes clear - and who knows how Iraq will be in a decade. Its a pity, he could have been in the league of Atlee or Thatcher - instead he’s more in the MacMillan/Wilson category.
The BBC homepage is (currently) not for those with weak stomachs……..
Re 10, Eddie, if he ceases to be Labour Leader on the 27th Brown can take over as leader then and Brown can become PM on the 2nd.
pimpernel - Yes I am jealous that Blair was able to persuade people that he was a tory and I am glad he is no longer our opponent. I always remember the Economist front page “Tony Blair: the greatest tory ever sold”.
Patrick and others should be proud of Blair, he enacted a lot of socialist policy whilst playing at being a middle class tory. The effect of the policies is normal for socialism, but Blair is a supreme politician and I commend him for that - he’s still directly responsible for hundreds of thousands of needless deaths and that should haunt him forever more but it won’t.
Why the wait until 2/3rd July? Is the Queen too busy?
Only the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and those rebels should come out of the Iraq Invasion without being haunted - Both the Labour Party and Conservative Party including David Cameron voted for it - it makes me laugh that Conservatives blame Blair when they are just as complicit
“I think we may see technically more competent government (goodbye sofa)”
Gordon Brown is always on the GMTV sofa, with that strange smile of his.
14 - yes… those interest rate rises are making me feel a little queasy!
It would be churlish of anyone under 60 to claim they have lived under a greater Prime Minister. Listening to his leaving speech you realize (if you’d ever forgotten) what a unique class act he is.
That he presided over record levels of public spending coupled with a unique 43 consecutive quarters of economic growth not to mention devolution and the minimum wage would be an achievement in itself. That he presided over the first ten years I can remember without the country moving from one crisis makes it special…..but
His greatest achievement is that he presided over a society that finally spurned classism racism and homophobia and helped the country forget the nightmare that was Margaret Thatcher.
15 Benedict. Brown will follow Blair to the Palace on the 27th … perhaps even in the same car (continuity etc) and then Gordon returns to No 10 solo …. and walks up Downing Street with flags flying !!
….. and 10 more years of NuLab begins. 
15 - makes much more sense than wot I wrote. Thanks Benedict.
21 - while I accept that things are better than under Thatcher, I don’t think he has put a stop to Thatcher’s culture of endless individualism to the utter exclusion of others though. That has continued. There still is no society.
When are the next national opinion polls;it could be intriguing to analyse effects of today’s events
25 Patrick. My ARSE is now back to full operational order and I expect some fresh offerings fairly soon !
25. Expect a bounce for Labour in sympathy for Blair, then a decline, then another bounce when Brown is elected, then… who knows?
Re 21, Roger, Thatcher faced much bigger problems and much grater challenges. So take your rose tinted churlish nonsense and *cough* somewhere.
Re 22, JackW, I don’t think Gordon will be around that long, nor will Labour be in power that long!
Who thinks there will be a challenger to Brown? Mike might do one of his polls where we all vote on this? Obviously largely if not solely depends upon whether the McDonnell/Meacher candidate can muster 45 names.
Re 30, Stjohn, Meacher has no chance at all, McDonnell may have a slim one.
I think the question is, has Blair’s clinging on so long allowed fatal damage to be inflicted onto the “New Labour” brand? Because of Blair, the whole project has been easy to hit from both sides by both Con and Lib - Iraq, civil-liberties, cash for honours, corruption, etc…you know, the list goes on…and much of this was associated with/because of Blair. If he had gone sooner, a line could have been drawn under those things and maybe Labour could have kept moving forward.
Brown needs to be astonishingly radical to try to blow away the stench of Blair’s failures. I just dont know if he’s got the guts or the inclination to do that.
BTW, Tories who think that life will be easy-peasy from now on are in la-la land. The idea that it is only Blair and nothing but Blair that has had them whipped three elections in a row is laughable.
CarlottaVance: agree that Blair is in MacMillan/Wilson category, not Thatcher/Atlee.
Re: polls this month, I expect the extended period of emotional outpouring and eulogy butt-kissing to produce a fair bounce for Labour. After the takeover it depends all on Brown’s policy announcements.
20. There was a half page picture of Blair grinning which has now disappeared…..I did warn you!
21. Roger - your visceral loathing of Thatcher blinds you to her achievements - without Thatcher, no end to clause 4, and no Blair either….Thatcher ‘made her own weather’ - Blair might have done, but has been brought down by ‘weather made in Washington’..I agree that Blair has done good work on homophobia, some on racism, but classism - he has presided over a decrease in social mobility…..
And as for ‘won three elections’ - he only won the third one by promising to go…
re 21 Roger if St Tony has finally rid us of classism, racism and homophobia, why all the guff anout what Mrs Middleton calls a toilet, why are there BNP councillors and why did Lord Browne feel the need to lie and hence lose his job?
[29] You fall for it every time, don’t you?
BLAIR - “I decided we should stand shoulder to shoulder with our oldest ally, and I did so out of belief,” he said of his decision to back the war in Iraq.”
Oldest ally? Tosh! What about Portugal??
“Re: polls this month, I expect the extended period of emotional outpouring and eulogy butt-kissing to produce a fair bounce for Labour.”
This reminds me of when Thatcher left and Major became PM. Lots of tv/media coverage which helped the Tories no end. Expect major poll boost for Labour. The difference being, of course, Brown will not be the fresh face to the public that Major was.
4 - there’s this assumption here - based on the composition of the site’s readership, I think - that everyone will delight in hating a slightly awkward Scottish chap with a thick accent and working class origins, but will absolutely delight in seeing Cameron toff it up.
Wait until they actually ARE head to head, then make you’re judgements. Blair has been a lame duck for a while, and Cameron and he aren’t so dissimilar anyway.
I’m not saying Brown will be a great success, but Cameron may be a pretty blunt tool for attacking him.
29 Benedict. At least 2 years Benedict and then two terms in coalition with the yellow peril !!
Just think your blog might have to wait until its millionth hit before Iain Dale enters 10 Downing Street …… for an interview with Prime Minister Soames.
25 and 27- Tory 10 point election leads in the polls will be a thing of the past- it will be fun to read the Tory posters here explain the Blair departure bounce, the Brown honeymoon bounce, the conference season bounce. And what happened to cash for honours- in reality no one will really care.
these overall have been 10 good years, that is what is important. Blair leaving now is already generating the kind of positive reflections people have for the last 10 years, and it will remind them of Lab’s achievements. Brown will be a tough and effective operator. I would expect the Tories going firmly on the negative in about a years time in a desperate hope to regain the sort of leads they have now. They will increasingly play the Scottish card with the one aim of attracting middle England votes to stop Brown claiming a 4th outright Labour majority.
38 - yet we’ve not actually seen that much of Brown to date, because he hides himself away all the time. Even those ordinary members of the public who follow politics, like myself, don’t have Brown’s measure yet. He has considerably more name and face recognition than Major had when he took over, but still most people know little about him and he could potentially win them over, despite the gnashing of teeth of the Eton&St Pauls mob who are riled at his impudence for existing at all.
Again, I’m not saying he’ll be a success, I just think the Tories on this Tory-dominated site are jumping the gun in presuming he won’t be.
The Times has a timetable for hand-over:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/the_blair_years/article1771972.ece
Suggesting new PM June 27
“Just think your blog might have to wait until its millionth hit before Iain Dale enters 10 Downing Street …… for an interview with Prime Minister Soames.”
PM Soames will come first, I’d wager
39 - Only Brown has neither a thick accent or working class roots. And the electorate know all about DC’s background. The evidence so far is it doesn’t seem to bother them.
Nick Robinson even put my eulogy in the shade. I didn’t realize he was such a Blair fan!
Thatcher was the only friend the apartheid regime had in the world. I wouldn’t suggest that her husband’s business interests there played a part because I don’t believe they did. But her son who has recently been jailed for four years (suspended) for taking part in an attempted African coup I think illustrates the family’s imperialist values better.
45 - he hasn’t run in a General Election campaign yet. So the evidence so far doesn’t add up to much.
46 - sorry to mention Portugal again, but apartheid had chums there. Also the Israelis like to mix it with them behind the scenes, did they not?
By the way, while I’m here, does anyone have views on the likely outcome of the Tory party primary to take place in Ealing North?
44 Stonch. The door to No 10 would need widening and a hoist fitted to the Prime Ministerial bath.
The government Jag replaced by a Hummer and of course a Jumbo jet for air travel !!
Oh, it thrills me to see the Tories on this site behave in such a complacent manner! Now that Blair is going, Labour may as well hand the keys of No 10 over to Cammy right now - why wait for an election when *everyone* knows what a tongue-tied, secretive, Stalinist no-hoper Gordon “Broon” is!
I cannot wait for the cocky little smirk to be wiped off DC’s face. GB should just be himself and ask CAmmy come PMQs - “how many more one liners do you have written down there in your script?” or “don’t laugh at him please - he delivers them so well, in front of the mirror no doubt, checking his parting as well.”
47 take that up with 911 new Tory councillors as to whether the evidence means much
38 “Brown will not be the fresh face to the public that Major was”
Er….seeing as Major had been both Foreign Secretary and Chancellor plus various other ministerial posts hardly a fresh face.
However I am not so convinced ( even if I hope it will )that Labour will get quite the boost some here believe. Clearly all the coverage in the next few weeks should be good for the Labour Party ( assuming that the duputy leadership doesnt descend into a slanging match ) but after that it will depend on whether Gordon can be seen to move on from the Blair years and also whether the economy remains on a even keel, much still to play for.
Is Peter from Putney about?
I’m curious about this interest in Switzerland for Eurovision. I may have missed any postssz previous to the one earlier today.
51 Test. “911 new Tory councillors”
All these Porsche driving Conservatives … clearly things have only got better !! ….. all sing “Things have only better ….”
54. Either than or they all work for the emergency services in the USA.
55 Yokel.
50 - Given that Gordon Brown seems to be going out of his way not to be himself what makes you think he’ll do that come PMQ’s.
FWIW most Tories are not in the least bit complacent but we would rather be facing GB than TB given the choice.
hain announcing he has 45 mps backing him for deputy leader.
can we also hear from that handful of nutters who have been posting on here for months that blair would have to be ‘dragged kicking and screaming’ and would never announce his own departure?
47: Yes, Israel and apartheid S Africa exchanged nuclear secrets, technology and materials. Good palls. Something about both not liking angry dark skinned types wanting their land back…
The destruction of the Labour Council/Councillor base is a significant problem for Brown. The next set of elections are the smallest, so he has no hope of any serious gains next year even if he brings a Labour recovery.
“Er….seeing as Major had been both Foreign Secretary and Chancellor plus various other ministerial posts hardly a fresh face.”
I know, but I can’t remember him being part and parcel of the election campaigns alongside Thatcher in 79, 83 or 87…
He was pretty much unknown to the general public unlike Brown.
60 - didn’t they cooperate on developing forms of biological warfare, too?
57 You will still be facing both of them anda lot more besides. It’s just that TB won’t be PM that’s all. He’s not dead.
61 - but how many of the voting public have a sufficiently strongly held view of Brown that his reception by them in the next few months is already predetermined? Not many, I’d wager.
You’re being complacent, Tory Boys.
60. And who gave the know how & kit to Israel in the first place?
62. No certainly not at any official level and by all acounts not an any informal level either. South Africa’s bio warfare was pretty much homegrown and was based on very different uses to any Israeli bio-warfare plan.
“I know, but I can’t remember him being part and parcel of the election campaigns alongside Thatcher in 79, 83 or 87″…
IIRC, he appeared at one of Mrs. Thatcher’s final morning press conferences in 1987, which puzzled the politico journos present. It was the first indication that Mrs. T was taking an interest in promoting him. But, in general, I agree that his identification with Thatcher’s government was way less than Brown’s with Blair’s.
61 - Quite a few I would have thought. (Or maybe its just I know a lot of people who loathe Brown because of their perceived view of the way he has damaged their pensions etc).
One way or another people have their views of Brown like they did of Blair and Thatcher.
“It would be churlish of anyone under 60 to claim they have lived under a greater Prime Minister. ”
Well, I’ve lived under Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, and Major, all of whom were better. I’ll grant you Edward Heath, though.
21 - rubbish
28/34 - I agree!
41 - it is possible Brown could have a small bounce but I doubt it. I suspect that after a couple of months he will be seen as “no change” and the Cons lead will widen!
“You’re being complacent, Tory Boys.”
Of course people like Tyson or Roger are much more realistic…
32-Mboy- looking back a bit in history- I agree there is a point when government’s become fatally wounded- the tipping point. Apart from the 1970 and 1974 elections which could have gone either way every government that lost a election could not have changed the course of the outcome. The only exception is the Tories in the 1990- a fatally wounded government managed to renew around a leadership change.
This does not have the look, feel, attitude of a party that is fatally wounded with or without Blair. 2 years of economic growth to look forward, a reasonable record of delivery, and a new leader. Labour is not a party in crisis. This government is not in crisis.
Note that Blair has just resigned the Labour leadership in Trimdon. Will cease to be PM on 27th June - about 6.5 weeks.
70 - maybe not, no.
71 - the same could have been said about Major’s govt in ‘92. When things are sliding they can slide very fast. The end of new Labour is now in sight. Rejoice, rejoice!
59 - Indeed. Apologies.
(although to be fair I havn’t been saying it for the last couple of months, but I was at the turn of the year.)
68 “Well, I’ve lived under Wilson, Callaghan, Thatcher, and Major, all of whom were better.”
Do you mean the same man. Major? John Major? Mr Underpants? Edwina Currie’s source of Eggstasy. The greatest gift to the Laboru Party before IDS.
What planet are you on? The man redefined useless.
74 We can’t count on that Rik. Winning a vote share of 26% for three sets of local elections in a row is pretty grim, as is being pushed into having fewer local councils under their control than in 1983. However, they may still turn it round under Brown.
Brown’s an utter coward, where was he on Friday and over the weekend?
He’s quick enough to give good news to the Murdoch press when it suits but will soon be exposed as a fraud when the first ‘crisis’ hits. ‘Fit for purpose’? Hardly…….
“Blair quits: ‘I did what I thought was right’”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/the_blair_years/article1771045.ece
So are you betting on this RikW? Time to put up the cash. CU on betfair.
76 Well I’m not saying Major was very good, merely preferable to Blair.
And as I said, I rate Blair above Edward Heath.
81 Heath had the EU legacy, which surely pushes him up the league table. Arguable that he acheived the greatest impact; he changed more lives with that act than anyone except Atlee and the Welfare state.
Meanwhile in Hull…
80. Stick yer money on Rick, I know I have. People are misreading the polls with all their seat calaculators and the like.
48 Ian Gibb selected for Ealing North
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2007/05/ian_gibb_select.html
82 That doesn’t make him a good Prime Minister. Simply one who had a big (IMHO malign) impact.
Re 40, JackW, PM Soames!
Now taht would be a surprise!
Angela Smith (the Sheffield one) has declared for Harman. HH has 42 names listed on her website now.
Good grief, Lennon, when somebody mentioned ‘handful of nutters’, I certainly didn’t expect you to put your hand up! Anyway, somebody who admits they may have been wrong is almost by definition not a nutter.
We should be grateful to the true nutters though. They help to sustain generous prices.
Personally, I would like to thank all those who so stridently insisted that Inspector Yates would clap Blair in irons. Their rantings began last summer and continued through the winter and spring. Thanks to them, my Blair Switch profits ended at around £800.
They are too numerous to mention individually but no doubt they will step forward and claim the credit they deserve in due course.
87 A Big surprise…
69-Rik W- of course the Tory lead will widen, after all the front bench is brimming with talented big hitters with eye catching policies;
and this dreadful Labour govt- 10 years of prosperity and investment in public services- 2 years more to be expected- the architect of all this misery coming to power- the public rightfully will turn to the deserving Tory opposition-
I am afraid the brief Tory flirtation with winning an electoral majority is over, never really was on the cards- but that fleeting moment of insanity seemed to capture you, and in that moment a few journalists and even labourites got caught in the fog. Oh how we will laugh about people predicting Tory landslides and majorities. Not going to happen is it? All a bit embarrassing really.
“UK trade deficit widens to £4.5bn”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6641971.stm
Mike asked in the article “Will this mean that Labour can start to rebuild its popularity”.
In my view Councillors provide (with Members) a useful measure of the base support of a party. Today the figures stand as a % of all Councillors, Conservatives 43%, Labour 25%, LD 20%.
The only election since 1974 that Labour has fought with a number near this was 1979 with 26%. Conservatives had 48% at that time so are just 5% below that peak. At the 2005 election Conservatives fought that with just 7% more councillors than Labour and 15% fewer that Labour+Lib Dems. Today the Conservatives have 18% more than Labour and only 3% fewer than Labour+Lib Dems.
Re-building a party in whilst in Govt would be an achievement that no party has managed to do in the records going back 33 years. The reality is that since 1997 Labour councillors have halved from almost halved from 48% and its Membership has more than halved to below 200,000.
Looking at the Conservative 92 election this was fought with C = 33% of Councillors with Labour just 7% ahead. But by 97 this had changed to a 19% gap over the Conservatives.
The Labour party is in a precarious position and needs a person to re-build and unify it, not a divisive clunking fist. In the words of that Jock on Dads Army “You are all doomed”!
(All figures quoted are from the year end prior to the election).
Blunkett talking about the need for competance and transparency from the teaching profession on Sky News………what can I add to that?
The truth is that Brown is neither the incompetent buffoon that some argue, nor the brilliant knight in shining armour others do. However, his strengths and weakness are largely irrelevant now as public opinion has already turned against him, and once that happens there is no turning back. His government might have an air of freshness for about a month, but after that people will still see it as the same Labour government, which they are tired with.
In addition, no matter what Blair did, he had a charisma about him that kept a significant chunk of middle England thinking “yeah, he has his problems, but I still trust him to be an effective leader”. That section will now turn Tory, and coupled with the gradual, but continuous, decline in Brown’s popularity, it will cost Labour the next election.
Re 59, Bally Eric, Are you calling me a nutter?
Re 65, Yokel, “And who gave the know how & kit to Israel in the first place?”
France.
91 - Who predicted a lanslide for any party at the next election? Other than Roger of course.
None of us know for certain what will transpire in the weeks and months ahead. Although the polling evidence we have thus far does not bode well for Gordon Brown.
63 - I’m sure there is nothing GB and his supporters would like more than Tony acting as a back seat driver.
possibly - were you one of the tin foil hat brigade telling us all that blair would never go voluntarily or that he’d be calling a general election before leaving downing street?
89. Arent you donating to the nutters fighting fund?
re 71, Tyson “This does not have the look, feel, attitude of a party that is fatally wounded with or without Blair. 2 years of economic growth to look forward, a reasonable record of delivery, and a new leader. Labour is not a party in crisis. This government is not in crisis.”
The problem is disposable income growth is either very slow or going backwards. That is how people will judges the economy (the pound in THEIR pocket) not by what some statistician says.
97. Correct, 10 points.
ptp: guido fawkes, that brilliant political analyst, was confidently telling us all last week - LAST WEEK! - that Blair was preparing to stay on as PM!
42 Stonch “the gnashing of teeth of the Eton&St Pauls mob who are riled at his impudence for existing at all. ”
Is the St Paul’s mob the 42 MPs who have declared for St Paul’s old girl Harriet Harman ?
46. I have a sneaking suspicion that when the secret records come out, it will reveal the Thatcher government was propping up the de Klerk government in public, while forcing them to accept a negotiated transition behind the scenes. If the British and the Americans had simply pulled the rug out from beneath the SA government, collapse, anarchy and despotism would have followed. As it was, they managed to get Mandela in there, rather than a Mugabe-clone.
101 - benedict, can i ask how old you are? do you remember the two recessions in 80s and 90s? my god there’s no comparison to now, not even close.
Re 90, Jonathan, no, a HUGE surprise!
An attempt at a voice of reason for 2010.
Labour Advantages: Incumbancy, massive 130 seat plus advantage, historically benign economic backdrop. Intellegent leader.
Tory Advantages: Shiny new media savvy leader, poll lead, owns the green card, lots of councillors and the “mo”.
Labour Disadvantages: Iraq, longevity in office & baggage, NHS reforms. Tory memories fading.
Tory Disadvantages: Right wing loonies & pre 2005 Nasty party “not part of the human race” image, Poor Economic reputation. That car following the bike. Invisible/weak shadow cabinet.
Honours roughly even IMO now
100 Only if it supports genuine, fully paid-up, Grade A nutters, Yokel. Lennon and Benedict don’t even get close to qualification.
Hain said he has 47 MPs supporting him (+ himself).
Re 99, Bally Eric, no, I just thought the only way to get him out of number 10 was kicking and screaming, and he would take some of the door frame with him as he clung on.
I didn’t think he would call a GE, because that would be silly. That said, politically he has been dragged out kicking and screaming.
108 - I’m not sure if it’s entirely reasonable if your going to have ‘that car following the bike’ and ‘Iraq’ as comparable disadvantages.
Also terms like “loonies” and “not members of the human race” tends to undermine any supposed balance as well.
The question we should be asking now is when will Gordon Brown step down as Prime Minister. Will he serve two terms? Three possibly?
Regarding Tony’s legacy, one of his great problems is that he never went in for short termism, gimmicks or quick fixes. His political decisions tended to be of the monumental kind: years may have to pass before they yield their fruit. Thus, in perhaps a decade’s time when all of the Middle East is a peaceful democracy with Iraq as its beacon of inspiration, we will thank Tony. When crime and disorder is all but eradicated, and people in every part of the country, not just London, can leave their front doors unlocked without so much as a fleeting concern, we will thank Tony. When public services have standards of delivery that exceed the wildest dreams of any Liberal Democrat at a cost to the tax payer lower than the wildest dreams of any Tory, we will thank Tony.
In some ways it’s a bit unfair on Gordon - he may have to play St Paul to Tony’s Jesus - but another new dawn is about to break, and for new Labour, the nation and the world there are wonderful times ahead.
Re 106, Bally Eric, old enough to remember the booms and busts BEFORE the 1980’s that Labour helped to build, old enough to remember how Labour, the unions and “corporatism” had brought this country to its knees.
100. Oh come on, I’ve had coaching and everything….
99 I still can’t beleive he’s going voluntarily - largely because I think he’s the greatest asset Labour have ever had, it seems crazy to me that he’s stepping aside from the job because some miserable nutter next door fancies having a go.
101 joyless growth for the next few years as the country’s finances can’t take any more of the splurging of cash. Real wage cuts for public sector workers and reduced disposable income for most others - “it’s economic growth Jim but not as we know it”.
All is set for a great battle to which I look forward. Labour will provide a great opponent in Gordon but a beatable one. Far from there being lots of tories predicting easy victory all I’ve read is a lot of lefties joyful at the departure of their greatest ever leader.
Re 108, Johnathan “Honours roughly even IMO now”
Possibly, but remember we are swinging more of the public service vote beghind us, even those who were in them before 1997. (Which may seem odd I know)
I just used quotes from Tory party spokesman.“loonies” and “not members of the human race”. It was the parties image… Cameron clocked that and has done well as a result.
I would never equate iraq and the bike. But the bike could be used to ruthlessly underwine Camerons image in a short camapign IMO.
113 Adrian Harper is on the money once again!!
98-Max- my feeling is that the Brown bounce is unlikely to put Labour ahead, but probably put the 2 main parties trading leads in the mid 30’s in the years to come, probably the Tories averaging slightly better.
Consistent 10% leads are over for any party, a lead of 5% would represent a breakthrough.
Brown will be happy to call an election in a 1992 scenario- trailing slightly in the polls, and a 2009 election still presents the best opportunity for him.
I think strategically Brown would take a 2009 minority party victory, even if Labour polled 2-3% less than the Tories but winning more seats- IMO opinion by far the biggest probability outcome for that election. And probably Cameron would take this same outcome if you presented it to him now.
Anyway- see you on the cash for honours outcome- to gloat, or eat humble pie.
“The question we should be asking now is when will Gordon Brown step down as Prime Minister. Will he serve two terms? Three possibly?”
And that will just be the start of the 1,000 years of New Labour reign
“but another new dawn is about to break, and for new Labour, the nation and the world there are wonderful times ahead.”
And the universe. They must be dancing with joy on Mars as we speak.
I have the audio of Mr Blair’s speech posted here:
http://www.mattwardman.com/blog/2007/05/10/tony-blairs-speech-i-will-be-leaving-on-27-june-2007/
114. The term “corporatism” brings back associations with that even more dreadful idea, “national champions”!
From the Guardian:
“There have also been last-minute moves by two of the candidates in the deputy leadership contest - Peter Hain and Hilary Benn - to see if they can get a deal to back Mr McDonnell, in return for his supporters backing them. ”
Benn must be pretty desperate if he’s really try to get McDonnell’s supporters.
113 - Adrian, LOL
113 Superb satire!
120 - I don’t, so far as I remember, think I’ve said anything very much on the cash for honours outcome.
I’m still not convinced about the Brown bounce and in particular who it’s going to win back to the Labour fold. I don’t quite see why people are going to suddenly warm to him. I’m also not sure that Labour would win by polling 2-3% less than the Tories at the next election.
115 Yokel, the Club is not formed yet, nor its Constitution written, but when it is, no doubt there will be automatic exemption for anybody living or working in the vicinity of Belfast.
John McFall MP (West Dunbartonshire) has been added to Harman’s endorsements page. She has now 43 public supporters.
I suppose she has made it to the “real” contest.
I think David Milliband’s enthusiastic response to today’s historic events deserves wider appreciation
“It wasn’t tears and huge emotion but you felt you were there at a relatively historic occasion”
clearly he’s traumatised by Blair’s departure.
114 - you just come across as considering politics to be a jolly lark. It can be, I know, but don’t get into the big stuff as you’ll get shot down like that again.
130. Prescott’s thanks to the people of Hull is also worthy:
“But most of all I would like to thank you, the East Hull Constituency Labour Party and all the people of East Hull, for your continued support - I couldn’t have done it without you all”
132 - Thanks Hull!
You go out for a while and when you come back the PM announces he’s going! They managed to keep that as big a secret as the fact that Benedict has a blog.
After all the days, months and years of speculation it just seems like one big stage managed announcement which screams fake, it will largely leave a lot of people uninspired or interested because the whole event has been advertised for years. Without a leadership contest there is just not the momentum to keep Brown’s coronation front page news for weeks and it will not ignite the mythical poll bounce. I am sorry but the Hain, Harmen & Co race will interest political betters and the party faithful but it just won’t grab the voters attention either.
Darling down to 1/3 on the Ladbrokes ‘next Chancellor’ market.
133 - Ah yes Hull, a blessed city, the Greatest City on Earth.
Or failing that Humberside.
Re 120, Tyson, “my feeling is that the Brown bounce is unlikely to put Labour ahead, but probably put the 2 main parties trading leads in the mid 30’s in the years to come, probably the Tories averaging slightly better.”
I think we will have to agree to disagree.
“I think strategically Brown would take a 2009 minority party victory, even if Labour polled 2-3% less than the Tories but winning more seats- IMO opinion by far the biggest probability outcome for that election. And probably Cameron would take this same outcome if you presented it to him now.”
Actually I think you are wrong there. Looking at the local elections in some of Labour’s safest seats, the Labour vote seems to be climbing lots there so to keep the same vote share they will lose it it marginals, handing us seats.
I have decided to steal Ming’s sounbite and I think it is fair to say that the Blair Years were a “mixed bag”
Lynda Waltho MP declares for Blears
“He (Hain) said he was pleased to get such support as it is not possible - mathematically speaking - for all six declared contenders to get on the ballot paper. ”
well, not sure what type of maths he has learnt, but 44*6=264 here. So theoretically speaking all 6 can be nominated.
Re 131, Stonch, “you just come across as considering politics to be a jolly lark. It can be, I know, but don’t get into the big stuff as you’ll get shot down like that again.”
What sort of a load of old b*ll*cks is that?
This country was in an appaling state in the 1970’s and going DOWN hill fast.
So when I hear rubbish talked about how bad the 1980’s were, I remember how bad the 70’s were as well, with the caveat that we were definately going the wrong direction.
99
‘possibly - were you one of the tin foil hat brigade telling us all that blair would never go voluntarily’
Are you trying to rewrite history already or just had a memory lapse and forgotten the events of September last year when Blair was pushed out by his own backbenchers?
ID cards costs Jo Moored http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6642339.stm
141 - you know what I’m getting at. You must.
141 The 1930s were pretty bad too under Baldwin.
143: that’s next week’s PMQs material written then!
137 - a situation where the Tories get the most votes but miss out on seats, and Brown forms a minority government, would be a dream come true for Cameron. He could do with a bit more experience and time in the job, and half his front bench are a bunch of overexcitable twts that need to calm down a bit.
Cameron could end up being a success, as long as he doesn’t become PM at the next GE.
Ken Purchase MP (Wolverhampton North East) has declared for Harman. She has now 44 names listed in her website.
So she should be on the ballot
Re 144, No stonch, I don’t. Politics affects peoples lives, and I take taht seriously.
Re 145, Jonathan, Thing is Thatcher did not inherit the mess Baldwin left did she?
Hi all,
A quick question- does anyone have any figures relating to turnout for the Local Elections in England last week? I can find individual turnout figures for each council but don’t really fancy wading through each result…
As for Blair, “I did what I thought was right” isn’t exactly the most ringing epitaph in the world- I’m sure most people do!
Btw, the mood here in Parliament is pretty subdued- there’s none of the Tory triumphalism some posters appear to be expecting from us. I think everyone is quite aware that the preliminaries are now over and the real fight is about to begin. Did anyone spot Alan Duncan’s speech last night? It hardly mentioned Blair- it was all about Brown, and was very agressive stuff. This is certainly the shape of things to come.
145 Personally I had a low opinion of Lord North, but I doubt if many others here remember him.
So it seems McDonnell and Meacher couldn’t come to terms then!
145/149 - Benedict, the fact you didn’t realise he was pulling your leg highlights how out of your depth you are.
151. Not to mention the Marquis of Bute.
Cheer up everyone - The Unelectable One announces that he will become a comedy legend when he takes over from Blair:
“Perhaps I will soon be able to talk about things other than financial figures…. I give news about the economy, and so the scope for great humor isn’t really there. I can’t just start cracking jokes about taxation.”
Is he going to turn into William Hague?
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/05/10/brown.profile.reut/index.html
149 You can blame who you like till the cows come home. The govt before that could arguably blame their outcome on the three day week, 1973 oil price shocks and governing with a microfine small majority. And so it goes on till the Romans.
Thatcher has to take significant responsbilitiy for both her recessions esp the latter one fuelled by political budgets. No doubt you think differnt. But who cares it was last century. Thankfully we live in the here and now, which lets face it isn’t too bad…
Anyway surely we can agree on teh 80’s that the shoulder pads were a real disaster, but the action movies were better.
150 - during the “real fight”, the public seeing the likes of Osborne and Duncan carp in a swivel-eyed fashion about Brown will do the Scotsman no end of good. The Tories need to chill a little bit.
135 Darling = 1.51 on betfair
152. Either that or they don’t have 44 names between them.
Re 153,Stonch, I don’t think Bally Eric was pulling my leg about the recessions of the 80’s or 90’s. I don’t think he is the sort of pr*t who would do that. Do you think he is?
Re 156, Jonathan, “Anyway surely we can agree on teh 80’s that the shoulder pads were a real disaster, but the action movies were better.”
We can agree on that!
157- I think it rather depends how Brown behaves, of course if he manages to rise above it then I agree that carping on will look silly. But that said, I think it’s rather instructive how successfully Osbourne has needled Brown over the last few months. If Gordon loses his temper then I think a ‘good cop- bad cop’ routine may work rather well. We’ll see I guess…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6638231.stm
Pretty damning indictment on New Labour spin by Andrew Marr!
I am no fan of Ming but I think he does hit on something when questioning the appropriateness of Blair’s “greatest country on earth” speech. This was a curiously disconnected piece of rhetoric and I am not sure it strikes a chord with people on the streets, Labour supporters or otherwise, at this current moment. It would have been different in, say, 2005 after wining the Olympic hosting, 7/7, G8 meetings et al, but not now. So, what is he up to? It makes it sound otherwise very pre-drafted.
Has anyone noticed the remarkable similarity between post 21. and post 113. I can’t tell which is the spoof and which is serious!
Just read on the BBC website that Blair, regarding his first meeting with Cherie, “I found her immensely physically attractive.”
He was delusional from the start then!
I wonder which country Ming feels is the greatest country on Earth?
Rhodesia, Ceylon, The Ottoman Empire or maybe Gaul?
160 - i’m talking about the ref. Baldwin in the 30s. Get a grip
164. I’m sure it is a great place from inside no 10 with flunkeys and private jets…
169 Cameron will feel right at home