Who’ll get it if Benn isn’t on the ballot?
May 15th, 2007-
Is Harman ready to pick up the lion’s share of Benn’s support?
The above is the last poll of Labour members on the coming deputy leadership election which was taken just over two weeks ago.
Clearly if Benn gets the nominations then he is worthy of his 7/2 third favourite status - particularly as he is picking up so much of the female vote as can be seen in the chart.
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But how are the 36% that placed Benn top going to react if the International Development Secretary fails to come up with the 44 nominations that are required - somthing that is starting to look possible?
Will they go to Alan Johnson or will the desire to have a woman in the position see Harriet home? The fact that the latter has the backing of Brown’s close supporters makes it more likely that Harman will get it.
You can see why Gordon is so keen to get a gender balance on the leadership ticket particularly as the battle for women voters generally is going to be a key fight at the general election.
My guess is that Benn is not going to be there and Harman now appears to be a value bet at 3/1.
Mike Smithson
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I wouldn’t advise anyone to back Harman at 3/1, I think you are ignoring the way the electoral college works. Harman may well get a lead in the PLP if heavyweight Brownites line up behind her, but I cannot see rank and file party members backing her, and even with her husband’s help I can’t see here getting any joy in the union section.
I seriously wouldn’t be surprised to see her finish bottom in two out of three divisions of the college.
So the assumption by some strategist is that with Harman that’ll hoover up the women’s vote vis a vis Cameron?
Shoot the strategist?
Doesn’t Harriet Harman have a bad rep?
I don’t know much about her, but for some reason I have a negative impression of her.
Alan Johnson on the other hand seems a proper dude, as does Hilary Benn. I like them both a lot.
All the candidates provide a serious challenge for the Tories - none are Scottish, so they won’t be able to resort to racist attacks, thinly veiled as angst about the “West Lothian Question”…
I think without Benn - Johnson has to be clear favourite, although sentiment in the membership may want to see a woman ‘to balance the ticket’. But with two of them they may well cancel each other out.
“resort to racist attacks, thinly veiled as angst about the “West Lothian Question” ”
So Tam Dayell was an anti-Scots racist ? I think we should be told….
3 Scots are not a race, granted in VIctorian times people thought of the people of a country as representing a race but that’s so last century. Concern about Scottish MPs voting on English only legislation is something shared by the SNP. It’s probably something to do with fair play.
I agree with you about Benn but not Johnson.
5. I am aware he was the first to raise the issue, way back when.
I’m sure he wouldn’t agree with the current Tory stance on the issue which seems to be that a Scots MP can’t be PM. I’d have less of an objection if:
1. The Tories advocated a solution to what they claim is a constiutional problem - i.e. repeal of Scottish Parliament Act, or an English Parliament in a fully federal Britain - but they advocate neither.
2. Didn’t pay a bag piper to follow Gordon Brown around when out and about in SE England.
6 - “Scots are not a race”
Yeah, but you know what I mean.
“Concern about Scottish MPs voting on English only legislation is something shared by the SNP”
Yes, but only because the SNP want to break up Britain. Do the Tories want to break up Britain? I’m beginning to think that secretly lots of them do.
If Benn’s not on the ballot the race is wide open. In a five horse field where Benn’s votes could go anywhere and where there’s very little separating even Johnson and Blears in terms of votes, as well as there being a complicated three-way electoral college, it’s going to be very interesting.
Without Benn on the ballot paper, I’ll stick my nose out and suggest Blears will win, Cruddas second, Johnson third, Harman fourth and Hain to finish last. With Benn on the paper, he’ll win quite considerably.
Surely Peter Hain won’t come last? He’ll look a right tit.
Its AV so they have to rank. I would have thought most Labour members would pause before putting both the two women candidates at the bottom of the ranking, so Harman may end up picking up a lot of second and third places. Hain on the other hand could be a more polarising candidate which would perhaps be favoured in straight FPTP, but mightn’t do so well with transfers under AV as he could be many people’s last pick (Henry G for instance
).
Guidance on the Labour Party Leadership elections has been issued to Civil Servants, including Special Advisers :
Following announcements by the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister that they are intending to stand down from their positions as leader and deputy leader of the Labour party, head of the civil service Gus O’Donnell has reiterated the ground rules for civil servants, including special advisers, on their conduct during the subsequent election campaign.
This note also provides guidance to ministers in relation to the requirements of the Ministerial Code.
Ministers
During the leadership/deputy leadership election campaign, ministers remain in charge of their departments. Government business continues as normal.
All costs associated with the leadership/deputy leadership campaign - travel, accommodation, printing and so on - should be met by the individuals or the Party not the taxpayer.
Under the terms of the Ministerial Code, ministers must not use government resources for party political purposes. They must uphold the political impartiality of the civil service and not ask civil servants to act in any way which would conflict with the Civil Service Code.
Special advisers
Under the terms of the Special Advisers Code of Conduct, special advisers are able - with the approval of their minister - to assist with the leadership/deputy leadership campaign. But they must do so in their own time. This could be while on annual leave, or unpaid leave or at times which do not interfere with their normal duties, for example, out of normal working hours.
If a special adviser plans to support an individual in a relatively full-time capacity and/or campaign on behalf of a candidate in a high-profile way during the campaign, they should take unpaid leave.
Under the terms of the Civil Service Code, civil servants should not undertake any activity which could call into question their political impartiality or give rise to the criticism that public resources are being used for Party political purposes. Particular care needs to be taken with regard to official announcements and communications activities during the election campaign period (where civil service support should not be given for events that are Party political/campaigning in nature) in order to avoid criticism.
Other than civil servants in the ‘politically free’ category (staff in industrial and non-office grades), civil servants are not expected to have any public involvement (such as canvassing and campaigning) in the leadership/deputy leadership campaign. The rules on involvement in political activities are set out in section 4.4 of the Civil Service Management Code .
Further Information
Further advice and guidance may be obtained from the Permanent Secretary’s office
Guidance on the Labour Party Leadership elections has been issued to Civil Servants, including Special Advisers :
Following announcements by the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister that they are intending to stand down from their positions as leader and deputy leader of the Labour party, head of the civil service Gus O’Donnell has reiterated the ground rules for civil servants, including special advisers, on their conduct during the subsequent election campaign.
This note also provides guidance to ministers in relation to the requirements of the Ministerial Code.
Ministers
During the leadership/deputy leadership election campaign, ministers remain in charge of their departments. Government business continues as normal.
All costs associated with the leadership/deputy leadership campaign - travel, accommodation, printing and so on - should be met by the individuals or the Party not the taxpayer.
Under the terms of the Ministerial Code, ministers must not use government resources for party political purposes. They must uphold the political impartiality of the civil service and not ask civil servants to act in any way which would conflict with the Civil Service Code.
Special advisers
Under the terms of the Special Advisers Code of Conduct, special advisers are able - with the approval of their minister - to assist with the leadership/deputy leadership campaign. But they must do so in their own time. This could be while on annual leave, or unpaid leave or at times which do not interfere with their normal duties, for example, out of normal working hours.
If a special adviser plans to support an individual in a relatively full-time capacity and/or campaign on behalf of a candidate in a high-profile way during the campaign, they should take unpaid leave.
Under the terms of the Civil Service Code, civil servants should not undertake any activity which could call into question their political impartiality or give rise to the criticism that public resources are being used for Party political purposes. Particular care needs to be taken with regard to official announcements and communications activities during the election campaign period (where civil service support should not be given for events that are Party political/campaigning in nature) in order to avoid criticism.
Other than civil servants in the ‘politically free’ category (staff in industrial and non-office grades), civil servants are not expected to have any public involvement (such as canvassing and campaigning) in the leadership/deputy leadership campaign. The rules on involvement in political activities are set out in section 4.4 of the Civil Service Management Code .
Further Information
Further advice and guidance may be obtained from the Permanent Secretary’s office
I think the Tories are quite legitamate in raising the west Lotian question. I think they have only not raised it for fear of damaging there electoral prospects further north of the border.
The Status Quo is absolutly unacceptable, this bullshit about doing something about Scottish MP’s voting on English matters becoming second class MP - It has already happened!!! MSP’s do most of the domestic politics anyway. I do not see why the English have to support a bunch of ungrateful whingers who get better public services and more pointedly medical attention (Expensive Drugs) that the English pay for but cannot recieve.
As covered many weeks ago - Oil screwed the manufacturing base in this country (England) in the 70’s & 80’s - something which has got even worse in recent years. I remember Brown in opposition saying how bad it was that manufacturing had declined and the growth in manufacturing in the 90’s was due to it being from a low base etc. Well it has not really grown at all under his watch!!!
3. But if Hain was elected they would probably start bleating about the ‘West Glamorgan Question’ as well.
14 - “I do not see why the English have to support a bunch of ungrateful whingers who get better public services and more pointedly medical attention (Expensive Drugs) that the English pay for but cannot recieve”
Proving my point really. “Ungrateful” whingers, eh. You are a tool, aren’t you Mr Day!
The Tories DO raise the West Lothian Question, they raise it all the time to undermine Brown.
They’ll never get more than a few seats in Scotland anyway, so they probably calculate they have more to gain in England by playing on the worst side of people’s nature (a common Tory tactic).
Do you advocate breaking up the UK?
Do you advocate reversing devolution?
Do you advocate an English Parliament?
If so, by all means raise the WLQ. If not, then I’m afraid you can’t use this as an excuse to have a go at people for the crime of not being English. Same goes for all you Tories.
If Benn doesn’t get the nominations, whoever he throws his support behind will win.
15. No because Wales has a much more unified system with England than Scotland. England and Wales have the same legal system and the powers of the assembly are not that great.
I would also say that being the deputy leader of the Labour party does not have any nationality implications particularly if Brown scrapes the office of deputy leadership.
I think Hain will be a problem for Labour due to his image and voice - he comes across as being a bit of tw*t!!!
16 - Stonch given how appalingly anti-Scottish and racist this policy is why have polls found support for it in Scotland?
You could equally argue that the supporters of devolution were playing on anti-English sentiment in Scotland and Wales to garner support their.
18 - “No because Wales has a much more unified system with England than Scotland. England and Wales have the same legal system”
What real difference does having the same legal system make?
Do you really think that point is relevant, or did you just know a basic fact and thought you might regurgitate it?
17. I think Benn would back Johnson if he didn’t get on.
20. Zzz - talk about ruining a thread with a seriously off topic partisan poorly thought out rant..
19 - not intelligent enough to respond to.
22 - why partisan? I certainly don’t vote Labour, matey boy. Never have. May never do so.
Not everyone with a strongly held opinion is partisan. Not everyone who comes on this site is involved in politics (or thinks they are). Some of us just call it how we see it and think the lot of them are crooks!
22 - and by the way, it hasn’t escaped my notice that despite attracting opposition to what I’ve said, no one is willing to say they advocate a solution.
The only justification I’ve been offered so far for this daft WLQ stuff is Martin Day’s view that the Scottish people are a nation of “ungrateful whingers”, which rather proves my point, don’t you think?
Groan - I’ve had enough - 10 pints before 4pm…
24. Personally I’d find it hard to ever get angry with someone who has a Beer Blog regardless of whether I agreed with them!
26 - again, not much of an effort at actually answering the question, is it?
Do you, or do you not, support any of the obvious solutions to the WLQ?
If not, presumably you don’t see the WLQ as an issue, so why keep raising it, other than as a cynical ploy to undermine Brown at the price of stirring up anti-Scottish sentiment in England?
28 - 26 - again, not much of an effort at actually answering the question, is it?
Unlike your well thought out response to my post at 19?
27 - maybe I should stick to the beer! Don’t really like mixing with Tory Boys anyway, sniff!
29 - you didn’t pose a question, you just stated some related but not directly relevant points.
21. What makes you think that?
28. Actually i would like to see an independent Scotland.
I would also say that if we should have a Scottish PM here - please swap Alex Salmond for Brown. The Scots can keep Brown up there.
The reason i would like to see an independent Scotland is the fact the two populations are completly different in terms of ideological preference. The Scots are quite welcome to their “Socialism” and in England we can have a more efficient and effective market driven politics. We will not in England have to suffer a democratic deficit that currently occurs on legislation that is enacted on English people by Scottish MP’s who do not have a mandate on these issues for their own country.
The reason why i mention the legal system is due to the fact that some of the devolved powers to Scotland are much stronger than to Wales due to this difference.
Alex Salmond says Scottish MP’s should not vote on English matters, he is quite right.
An interesting side story from the lovely Slugger O’Toole website, purely co-incdental I’m sure, about Hain’s bid to be Deputy. Thanks to devolution Hain has sent two of his junior ministers in NI back home, David Cairns & David Hanson.
Two other junior ministers stay on, Maria Eagle & Paul Goggins.
Can you guess which two junior ministers are backing Hain & which two are backing another candidate for the Deputy post?
34. You are joking right?
33 - well at least you’re honest.
What about the North of England and Wales - if Scotland becomes independent, can they get out of this horrendous “efficient and market driven” independent state of England you want to see? They don’t vote Tory either.
Such nonsense.
23,24,25, 26, Would you like to play with my little soldier? Col doesn’t really have many friends, and you seem just up his street.
28. I would also say i mentioned “Oil” because the English economy has suffered due to the pound becoming a petro- currency. Where as the position some Scots take is it has been a Scottish asset taken by the English. I should imagine that we would have far more manufacturing jobs in England at this time had Oil not been discovered and a much healthy B of P.
I think the opportunities for employment in manufacturing would have assisted in the areas that jobs have melted away.
I would also say that expressing your views in such a personilsed way is counterproductive. I have actually been keen to give Brown the benifit of the doubt. After experiencing your attention today i will rubbish him at every opportunity!
34 - Yes but David Hanson and David Cairns have been promoted, which perhaps says something about what TB thinks of it all.
34. Will if the information is correct no. Hanson it appears though has been shifted to the new Justice ministry.
Cairns and Hanson are on Johnson’s supporters list. The other two are on Hain’s supporters list, I’ve checked.
I’m sure its just co-incidence but it can look odd.
Latest IFOP poll for the french Presidential elections.
UMP 37 (+3)
Soc 28 (-1)
Dem 14 (+2)
FN 7 (-)
Com 4 (-)
Ver 4 (-)
Seat projections are
UMP 336-390
Soc 144-190
Com 9-13
Dem 0-8
Ver 0-4
As can been seen the UMP are headed for another landslide. The Socialists are arguing that the Right should be denied a ‘monopoly of power’ but the Right counter that France needs a ‘cohabitation’ like it needs a hole in the head. Having just elected Sarkozy the French are disinclined to neuter him right off the bat. Bayrou’s Democrats are polling very respectably at 14% but they’ve lost almost all their MPs who would rather shelter with the UMP. Needing 12.5% to get into the second round the Democrats are facing the brutal realities of modified FPTP and look likely to get a low to non existent total of MPs. For the Socialists the interest will be in the postponed blood letting that will inevitably take place after June. Hollande vs Sego vs Strauss-Kahn vs Fabius. No prisoners will be taken…
34
That’s hilarious, Yokel.
The guy has just gone up in my estimation. Previously I wouldn’t have thought him that smart. Maybe some of that famous Irish wit and ingenuity rubbed off on him during his visits.
38 - I couldn’t care less what you think of Brown. I’m certainly no fan of his. He seems pretty awful to me.
As you can probably tell, this whole thing about the WLQ annoys me, it just seems so cynical for the Tories to exploit it against Brown despite supporting the current constitutional arrangements as they stand.
Anyway, we can agree to disaagree. I’d shake your hand, but the “whinging Scots” comment makes me think you’re a total tit.
39. Oh as I say, coinincidence I’m sure.
Aren’t the other two good enough for ‘promotion’? What does that say about them?
Only two realistic answers to the WLQ, assuming reversing devolution isn’t an option:
1 - break up the UK with outright independence to the 4 nations (E&W could remain as one with some local power devolved to Cardiff I suppose)
2 - a federal structure with each country running its own affairs but with a British Council (a bit like the EU in minature) running a common foreign policy, common currency, a common British head of state, the BBC etc. Head of the Council could rotate among the 4 PMs. Can’t see that lasting too long though…
However, there is a third way which is to stay as we are and put up with it when we have a Labour Government in power. When the Tories are in power, it’s not an issue given majority in England and lack of representation in Scotland and to lesser extent in Wales. Any tinkering with this, such as the EVFEL model, is just going to lead to 1 or 2 eventually.
I vote for the third way. It’s like gay weddings - I don’t like the idea, but am prepared to tolerate it…
Part of the problem with the WLQ for the Tories is that the suspicion is that despite being a “Unionist” party they have, with only 1 Westminster MP, little to lose by proposing EVOEM.
Additionally when Stormont was in session there was no call for such a debarring proposal from Conservatives on Ulster MPs, but of course the Unionists were part of the Tory club !!
38. Why bother to argue with the Tory retards that pollute this site?
Much more fun to just insult them….
You’d find more intelligence in a stagnant pond.
43. Hold on a minute - the “whinging Scot’s” comment is directed at the fact that Scotland due to the Barnett formular provides Scots with varstly enhanced public spending in comparison to England and at the English taxpayers expense. Do the English get any thanks - No! No! No! as Maggie thatcher would say
I have no problem with the Scots persay but i do believe that they are getting a very good deal and when any person brings up the question of making representation proportional and indeed balanced in terms of what Scots MP’s can and cannot vote on then you get people like you ranting about people being Tit’s etc. Far from persuading someone you do exactly the opposite.
Tell me why Scottish MP’s who do not have a mandate for Health, education etc in Scotland (MSP’s conduct this business) - should have the ability to vote on matters in England? Do the Scot’s have a devine right to have a non - reciprical arrangement. If Scots want a union fine - but there must be a quid - pro Quo arrangement and a readressment of the financial and political settlement. Unfortunatly for Brown he is the personification of this problem - If he had taken on Blair in 1994 and not chickened out and besmerched Blair whilst in government maybe this would not have happened.
45 Bob. Gays will be thrilled at your “toleration” !!
45 - don’t Labour have a clear majority of seats in England though?
46. Depends on whether the current UUP MP defects…..
48 Martin. Scots will be thrilled at your magnaminity !!
48 - there’s too many grocer apostrophes in there for me, I’m afraid.
What do you base your assertion on about the Scots getting such a good deal? Do you know the exact figures? No? Do you know your arse from your elbow? Probably not. Do you sometimes start sentences with “I’m not a racist, but..”? Perhaps. Am I interested in reading anything else from you? Yes, I am, but only for entertainment value.
Back jarringly to the thread….
This is proving a wonderful betting market. The odds keep fluctuating and now we have a new favorite. Anybody who still doesn’t boast a fully green position should immediately buy Mike’s book and not return to the site until its contents have been fully absorbed.
The bookies have been well behind PB.com in identifying the probable market movements, starting with Cruddas at 50/1 and more recently offering as much as 5/1 on new favorite Harman. They seem to have the numbers about right now, although with the uncertainty about whether Benn and Cruddas will make the ballot there still a good bit of fluidity in the market.
I wouldn’t be backing Harman at 3s. Might be a bit of value left still in Hain at 62 and if you missed the Cruddas bonanza earlier, 8s is still pretty good value.
Otherwise it’s a case of watch those nominations and move swiftly when the Benn/Cruddas situation appears to be settled.
Good luck everybody!
3
‘All the candidates provide a serious challenge for the Tories - none are Scottish, so they won’t be able to resort to racist attacks, thinly veiled as angst about the “West Lothian Question”’
You sound exactly like many of your friends in the Labour party that would just smear anyone as racist that had the audacity to raise concerns about immigration levels.
Naturally when members of the Labour party started to voice their concerns it was no longer racist,this childish slur didn’t work then and will not work now with the WLQ which is about the democratic deficit created by devolution.
When devolution was introduced by Blair,Dewar et al we were told that it would be see the end of Nationalism in Scotland & strenghten the union,of course the results of two weeks ago showed how spectacularly wrong this assumption was; in the meantime we have had to endure the establishment of two classes of MP’s at Westminster,two classes of higher education fees.two classes of care for the elderly together with the select few enjoying free prescriptions in Wales.(all supposedly in a single UK).
Meanwhile the 80% + majority of the UK electorate is denied the same mechanism to also join the gravy train,but is expected to keep quiet and pay for it.
I think Alan Johnson is great value at 7/2 with William Hill and have punted accordingly. I agree that it now seems odds against that Benn will get onto the ballot and even if he does then limping in like this could derail his campaign. Harman seems the danger so I have covered my position with her. Now neutral on Benn and negative on the other 3.
I have never been able to bring myself to back Harman and still won’t. I just don’t see how she can get it. Same with Cruddas. But hey, I’m not in the party. Money on everyone else though for good profits.
I think this gender balance issue is overplayed. If she doesn’t come across right to Joe & Josephine Soap of 8 Average Household Lane, Averagetown it won’t make a difference whether she is woman or a man.
53. I have Scottish relitives and am descended from Scot’s land owners.
The question should not be whether you are interested in any of my contributions but whether any of us are interested in your contributions.
We are laughing at you!
55 - “You sound exactly like many of your friends in the Labour party that would just smear anyone as racist that had the audacity to raise concerns about immigration levels.”
You sound exactly like someone who assumes everyone is as partisan as you are.
I’m not aware that any of my friends are members of the Labour Party. I know one of them is an active Tory and another a member of the Lib Dems, but that’s it. Most people don’t identify with a political party, let alone join one. I am among that majority.
I can’see what your ranting and raving about a gravy train is actually about. Why does devolution represent a gravy train for the Scottish people? They pay their taxes too, you know.
If more money per capita goes to Scotland as a whole than England as a whole, I expect that’s for the same reasons that more money goes to people in the NE of England than people in the SE of England (if indeed that is the case).
As I suspected, raising this issue brings out the very worst in some people.
Arguments along the lines of “I’m not racist/sexist/homophobic, but [insert thinly veiled racist/sexist/homophobic views]” don’t work.
re 54. PtP “This is proving a wonderful betting market. The odds keep fluctuating and now we have a new favorite. Anybody who still doesn’t boast a fully green position should immediately buy Mike’s book and not return to the site until its contents have been fully absorbed. You are so wise Peter.
58 - the royal we? I think so. Mind you, it may just be another genuine mistake, your written English seems very poor.
61. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
61. As somebody of your immense intellectual and inspirational contributions will know. Most people are related to some sort of infleuntial or wealthy figures of the past. But i am more concerned about my future than being terribly interested in titles (Or lack of them).
60 Can we discuss my commission rates now please, Mike?
63 - looney tunes.
Now listen I’ve made my view clear and in the process brought an illiterate, right-wing loon out of his coffin and ruined a thread. I will bow out.
Back to work. Soz all.
Yokel (I know you are out there) - I’ve two shouts for Huntingdon this evening. Check your emails.
57 Just a small wager on Harperson to cover myself on the others.
All looking nice and green now;-)
Yes, but only because the SNP want to break up Britain. Do the Tories want to break up Britain? I’m beginning to think that secretly lots of them do.
I wouldn’t mind, as long as it’s before May 2017 - have £200 on at 50/1
Certainly from a rational (vote & influence-maximising) perspective it makes little sense for the Conservatives to back the Union; if anything their current support for it is somewhat anachronistic and increasingly seems lukewarm.
Depending on events in Scotland over the next few weeks and years, a putative 2010 Conservative government might well be tempted to come to an arrangement with the SNP of further devolution; and the further we go down this road the more of a slippery slope it becomes, especially with Europe fulfilling so many of the overarching functions (such as trade agreements, free movement etc.)
Benn will get the 44 nominations.
“I will bow out.”
That’s a relief
47 Raising the standard of debate as always.
69 Welcome back, SISOSIG! Long time no post.
How you know?
Doesn’t Harman have “previous”? Surely the Mail is going to go for her like a rat up a drain if she gets elected. Her track record before she became an MP was well to the left of today’s New LAbour, and if that brand is going to be ditched then the Red Tops will assume that the Old Order will return. And then there’s her hubby. OK, I know it’s wrong to tar and feather one spouse because of the views of the other (much to Mrs Carp’s relief, I suspect) but Jack Dromey was a highly contentious figure. Remember Grunwick? And all the other strikes he was involved with?
65. Wait for meeee.. hic !
73. Yes, and also remember the ‘Freedom’ Association & the Tory involvement on the other side in the Grunwick strike. Both left & right wing authoritarians treating workers as pawns in their political game.
Your prejudices are showing.
75. Your flies are undone
The reality is all the arguments that Labour can deploy against EVFEL apply equally well against Scottish devolution.
Moreover we shouldn’t forget Labour’s initial plan was to also create devolved asemblies for Labour voting regions in England(up North). Basically their plan was that in event of a Conservative government, the Labour regional assemblies would retain powers over a whole range of issues, frustating conservative attempts at reform, whilst if Labour won the conservative regions would come directly under the control of central government.
The current constitutional arrangement is manifestly unfair and must to be reformed. Either you
1)abolish the Scottish, NI and Welsh Assemblies.
2)You create an English assembly
3)You bring in EVFEL
Alan Johnson “Asked if he felt Labour needed a female deputy, he joked that it was too late now for him to have the operation, adding that he was “in touch with his feminine side”.
too late? I think he’s still in time…
75 Colin W, I have absolutely no idea how you have come to that conclusion! As it happens, I don’t rate Harman, or her husband, but my point was that she is (in my opinion) going to be a bit of a liability to the Labour Party if she gets the job, because the gutter press are going to go for her in spades! Do you think that she is going to get an easy ride? Or is it that you don’t share my prejudices on the shortcomings of the British Press?
is the first update not about to come out>?
77. Or you bring in proportional representation and the inbuilt Labour majority in Scotland/Wales disappears. And it would solve the ‘Tories got more votes in England but fewer seats’ problem.
80. 6pm yes but no update yet..
77 The policy the Conservatives are likely to adopt is the English Grand Committee - so an English Lower House in all but name. This would deal with devolved matters - couple of issues still to be covered off are Wales and House of Lords. Wales would need its law making devolved in same areas as Scotland (and Northern Ireland similarly) which would then mean EGC had same powers and competence as the other assemblies. HoL would however still remain a second chamber for English legislation, as peers are representative of the UK not constituencies. If HoL reform though results in geographical representation then a similar arrangement in HoL would be possible.
Process would then lead to a call for English ministries and then an English first minister. After a few years a federal system would be in place.
See link for nominations:
http://www.labour.org.uk/leadership/nominations_update_-_6pm_tuesday_15_may
Leader:
Brown 282
McDonnell 27
Deputy Leader:
Benn 34
Blears 48
Cruddas 44
Hain 48
Harman 60
Johnson 64
86. Hain is at 49
Cruddas’ 44 are including himself or not?
Cruddas 1 short.
He must be able to find 1 more.
86. Hmm : so there are only 2 issues to be settled - Benn and McDonnel ?
I’m assuming nominations cant be withdrawn/switched ?
87. My figures are per Labour Party website.
91. My too. Lab website says Hain 49
Candidates for Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
Hilary Benn 34 nominations
Hazel Blears 48 nominations
Jon Cruddas 44 nominations
Peter Hain 49 nominations
Harriet Harman 60 nominations
Alan Johnson 64 nominations
McDonnell’s out.
92. Sorry Andrea - Hain is now 49.
Hain was 48 when they originally put the numbers on the website. They have then changed it about 2 minutes later!
93 liitle too early to make that assumption, are still best part of 2 days to go.
Hmm…doesn’t tell us a lot we didn’t know already.
Cruddas is almost certainly in. Benn is struggling but by no means out of it yet.
Agree with jgc (95). Too early to count McD out. Plenty of time for him to gather the other nominations.
94. Mike L, maybe they hired a Guardian writer to type them and they made a typo. Or an MP arrived with his nomination paper at 6 o’clock!
McDonnell needs 18 out of around 43 who haven’t nominated anyone for leader.
Cruddas needs 1 and Benn 10 out of around 53 who haven’t nominated for DL.
McDonnell nominations
Abbott MP, Diane Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Campbell MP, Ronnie Blyth Valley
Caton MP, Martin Gower
Clapham MP, Michael Barnsley West and Penistone
Clark MP, Katy North Ayrshire and Arran
Cohen MP, Harry Leyton and Wanstead
Cook MP, Frank Stockton North
Corbyn MP, Jeremy Islington North
Cryer MP, Ann Keighley
Drew MP, David Stroud
Etherington MP, Bill Sunderland North
Fisher MP, Mark Stoke-on-Trent Central
Flynn MP, Paul Newport West
Gerrard MP, Neil Walthamstow
Gibson MP, Dr Ian Norwich North
Heyes MP, David Ashton-under-Lyne
Hopkins MP, Kelvin Luton North
Jones MP, Lynne Birmingham, Selly Oak
McDonnell MP, John Hayes and Harlington
Meacher MP, Rt Hon Michael Oldham West and Royton
Prentice MP, Gordon Pendle
Riordan MP, Linda Halifax
Simpson MP, Alan Nottingham South
Skinner MP, Dennis Bolsover
Taylor MP, David North West Leicestershire
Wareing MP, Robert N. Liverpool, West Derby
Wood MP, Mike Batley and Spen
98. Sorry, Benn needs 11.
Breaking News from Sky:
Gordon Brown Nominations: 282 out of 352 MP’s
Remainder: 70
Hilary Benn nominations
Austin MP, John Erith and Thamesmead
Banks MP, Gordon Ochil and South Perthshire
Battle MP, Rt Hon John Leeds West
Bayley MP, Hugh City of York
Benn MP, Rt Hon Hilary Leeds Central
Blunkett MP, Rt Hon David Sheffield, Brightside
Burden MP, Richard Birmingham, Northfield
Caborn MP, Rt Hon Richard Sheffield Central
Clark MP, Paul Gillingham
Dean MP, Janet Burton
Hamilton MP, Fabian Leeds North East
Healey MP, John Wentworth
Howells MP, Dr Kim Pontypridd
Kumar MP, Dr Ashok Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Lammy MP, David Tottenham
Levitt MP, Tom High Peak
Mallaber MP, Judy Amber Valley
Marris MP, Rob Wolverhampton South West
McCartney MP, Rt Hon Ian Makerfield
McGovern MP, Jim Dundee West
Miller MP, Andrew Ellesmere Port and Neston
Morley MP, Rt Hon Elliot Scunthorpe
Mullin MP, Chris Sunderland South
Naysmith MP, Dr Doug Bristol North West
Pope MP, Greg Hyndburn
Shaw MP, Jonathan Chatham and Aylesford
Skinner MP, Dennis Bolsover
Slaughter MP, Andy Ealing, Acton and Shepherd’s Bush
Smith MP, Rt Hon Andrew Oxford East
Soulsby MP, Sir Peter Leicester South
Thomas MP, Gareth Harrow West
Timms MP, Rt Hon Stephen East Ham
Turner MP, Neil Wigan
Winnick MP, David Walsall North
Thanks Kevin L - That makes the task look tougher for Benn and McD.
Cruddas should be OK though.
Interesting that , on the face of it, hardly any of Meacher’s supporters have agreed to nominate McDonnell. Newsnight said the latter had 24 himself…
Cruddas nominations
Abbott MP, Diane Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Burgon MP, Colin Elmet
Cohen MP, Harry Leyton and Wanstead
Crausby MP, David Bolton North East
Cruddas MP, Jon Dagenham
Cryer MP, Ann Keighley
Davidson MP, Ian Glasgow South West
Dobbin MP, Jim Heywood and Middleton
Dobson MP, Rt Hon Frank Holborn and St Pancras
Efford MP, Clive Eltham
Farrelly MP, Paul Newcastle-under-Lyme
Flynn MP, Paul Newport West
Gapes MP, Mike Ilford South
Gerrard MP, Neil Walthamstow
Gibson MP, Dr Ian Norwich North
Hamilton MP, David Midlothian
Havard MP, Dai Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Heyes MP, David Ashton-under-Lyne
Hood MP, Jimmy Lanark and Hamilton East
Hopkins MP, Kelvin Luton North
Hoyle MP, Lindsay Chorley
Humble MP, Joan Blackpool North and Fleetwood
Jackson MP, Glenda Hampstead and Highgate
Jones MP, Helen Warrington North
Jones MP, Lynne Birmingham, Selly Oak
Kilfoyle MP, Peter Liverpool, Walton
Lloyd MP, Tony Manchester Central
Mahmood MP, Khalid Birmingham, Perry Barr
McKechin MP, Ann Glasgow North
Meacher MP, Rt Hon Michael Oldham West and Royton
Mitchell MP, Austin Great Grimsby
Olner MP, Bill Nuneaton
Prentice MP, Gordon Pendle
Rooney MP, Terry Bradford North
Salter MP, Martin Reading West
Singh MP, Marsha Bradford West
Smith MP, Geraldine Morecambe and Lunesdale
Strang MP, Rt Hon Gavin Edinburgh East
Stringer MP, Graham Manchester, Blackley
Todd MP, Mark South Derbyshire
Trickett MP, Jon Hemsworth
Truswell MP, Paul Pudsey
Watson MP, Tom West Bromwich East
Watts MP, Dave St Helens North
79. I simply meant there were plenty of authoritarian right wing loons involved in Grunwick, not just authoritarian left wing involvement.
Harman is, of course, totally useless anyway, like all NuLabConners.
104.”any of Meacher’s supporters have agreed to nominate McDonnell”
Are we sure Meacher did really have all the supporters he claimed to have?!
Just heard Cruddas has just tabled his 45th nomination. They missed the 6pm cut off by 5 minutes.
106. No prizes for guessing which of the loon categories you fell into, is there?
108. Who is the 45th, Henry?
I see Wareing wasn’t in anyone’s list. I suppose he can go for Cruddas
108 From Wanstead, my best wishes, thanks and goodwill waft north-eastward to wherever you dwell, dear Henry.
(Btw, I notice Harry Cohen backed our man. Good on yer, Harry!)
Michael Meacher’s comments in his own local paper tonight are not exactly effusive about transferring support to McDonnell. I think he is severely disappointed and showing it somewhat. This might not be exactly enthusing potential transferees.
Things don’t look good for McDonnell. The 43 not having nominated so far include also people like Charles Clarke, Frank Field, Milburn who will never nominate McDonnell
110. Michael Connarty MP
Ed Balls has nominated Johnson
Andrea that’s what Newsnight’s political editor said last night. 24 McDonnell 21 Meacher. It must have been reasonably close or they wouldn’t have had one meeting where they couldn’t agree who was top in pledges. As I posted last night there may also have been some vague pledges which have-so far at least- not been translated into signatures.
Julian H Conspiracy Theory Alert
McDonnell: Micky, I have 13 nominations
Meacher: Excellent, I have 14
McDonnell: Is that it?
Meacher: Yep, that’s us done.
McDonnell: But the Left needs some publicity
Meacher: Ok, let’s tell some porkies and pretend we have 44 between us. At least we can gang up on Gordo at the Fabian.
Quick perusal of the lists ( Harman link currently going to Hain ) Ed Balls is down for Johnson and Yvette Cooper is backing Harman which is bound to raise the odd comment - though, as all experienced canvassers know, there is no reason why members of the same household should have the same politcal views.
list of Harman nominees
Alexander MP, Rt Hon Douglas Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Atkins MP, Charlotte Staffordshire Moorlands
Baird MP, Vera Redcar
Barlow MP, Celia Hove
Blizzard MP, Bob Waveney
Brennan MP, Kevin Cardiff West
Brown MP, Rt Hon Nick Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
Bryant MP, Chris Rhondda
Buck MP, Karen Regent’s Park and Kensington North
Butler MP, Dawn Brent South
Clarke MP, Rt Hon Tom Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Coffey MP, Ann Stockport
Cooper MP, Yvette Pontefract and Castleford
Curtis-Thomas MP, Claire Crosby
Darling MP, Rt Hon Alistair Edinburgh South West
Dismore MP, Andrew Hendon
Doran MP, Frank Aberdeen North
Eagle MP, Angela Wallasey
Follett MP, Barbara Stevenage
Foster MP, Michael Jabez Hastings and Rye
George MP, Rt Hon Bruce Walsall South
Gilroy MP, Linda Plymouth, Sutton
Goodman MP, Helen Bishop Auckland
Griffiths MP, Nigel Edinburgh South
Harman MP, Rt Hon Harriet Camberwell and Peckham
Hewitt MP, Rt Hon Patricia Leicester West
Hodge MP, Rt Hon Margaret Barking
Hoon MP, Rt Hon Geoff Ashfield
Jones MP, Kevan North Durham
Keeble MP, Sally Northampton North
Kidney MP, David Stafford
Mackinlay MP, Andrew Thurrock
MacShane MP, Rt Hon Denis Rotherham
Mactaggart MP, Fiona Slough
Martlew MP, Eric Carlisle
McCarthy-Fry MP, Sarah Portsmouth North
McFall MP, Rt Hon John West Dunbartonshire
Miliband MP, Ed Doncaster North
Mole MP, Chris Ipswich
Moon MP, Madeleine Bridgend
Moran MP, Margaret Luton South
Morgan MP, Julie Cardiff North
Osborne MP, Sandra Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Purchase MP, Ken Wolverhampton North East
Riordian MP, Linda Halifax
Ruddock MP, Joan Lewisham, Deptford
Sarwar MP, Mohammad Glasgow Central
Seabeck MP, Alison Plymouth, Devonport
Sheridan MP, Jim Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Smith MP, Angela C. Sheffield, Hillsborough
Smith MP, Angela E. Basildon
Starkey MP, Dr Phyllis Milton Keynes South West
Stoate MP, Dr Howard Dartford
Stuart MP, Gisela Birmingham, Edgbaston
Thornberry MP, Emily Islington South and Finsbury
Vaz MP, Rt Hon Keith Leicester East
Walley MP, Joan Stoke-on-Trent North
Williams MP, Betty Conwy
Wright MP, Iain Hartlepool
Wyatt MP, Derek Sittingbourne and Sheppey
I heard somewhere that Prescott was going to endorse Johnson. Does the team think that Johnson’s supporters did not have enough cash to pay him not to?
116. well, it’s not that because the Newsnight’s political editor says something, it means it’s true. And 24 and 21 were the pledged they claim to have….did they really have it?
When the first meeting didn’t produce any result, some people were doubting at the various lists (names in both lists and things of that type)
hilarious that mcdonnell - mr no spin - has been spinning that he had above 45 when he’s got less than 30!
also - interesting that clarke, milburn and byers couldn’t bring themselves to nominate gordon brown. at least they’re not hypocrites.
I see Blair has nominated Brown.
I think it’s very difficult for McDonnell to make it.
Some people of the Left have nominated Brown (John Austin, Bob Marshall Andrews) making it even more difficult for him to make it.
I guess there will be quite a lot of complaint from McDonnellites against those people…
As far as I can make out the following campaign group members ( list of members from wiki ) are nominating Brown
David Anderson
John Austin
Bob Marshall Andrews
and so far have not made a nomination
David Hamilton
Austin Mitchell
Andrea If you want to believe Mcdonnell lied on TV be my guest. He seems to me like a reasonably genuine person even if I couldn’t disagree more about his views. He certainly indicated on TV that he plus Meacher had enough to challenge. That in turn pretty well ties in with what Newsnight said.
I’m not surprised that McDonell is finding it hard to find people willing to nominate him. Lets face it Gordon is not known as a forgiving man and having the party leader and prime minister as a sworn enemy isn’t going to make anybody’s time in the Labour Party easy.
Won’t there be outrage in the Party if the MPs are seen to be conniving against the memberships choice
124: From previous thread:
85. Well yes majority control then. How do you think they did in Cardiff. Strong progress in South but not in West. Were you as surprised as me by how well the Conservatives did in Cardiff West. Lastly what is the out look in Bristol South for Red Dawn, boringly safe no doubt.
111. Yes I think it’s good news that he got on without relying on the support of the hard left. That would have defined his campaign as too left wing.Glad he got the support of Lynne Jones though. Lots of decent, thoughtful unpretentious MPs there.
mitchell said brown was leading labour into a recession….in 1998. i don’t think he’s gordon’s biggest fan.
anyone got a list of those yet to nominate for leader?
126. Blue Moon, well, I was suggesting something else, but it can be a bit libellious and so I won’t develop it if you don’t mind!
Andrea that’s not on. Tell us.
`123.
“I see Blair has nominated Brown.”
Two-faced to the last!
Has Patricia Hewitt resigned yet? If ever there was a shining example of a woman who knows no shame.
John MacDonnell is not universally popular even in the campaign group, it is likely that some who would have nominated Meacher will not support MacDonnell he claims to be confident of getting the 18 names but it when even folk like Frank Dobson and Glenda Jackson are supporting Brown it is difficult to see where the names would come from.
Perhaps Stephen Byers and Alan Milburn will return to their far left roots and back a challenger to the man they dislike so much,
134. Is the pay off bigger if they’re made to leave the cabinet rather than do a Reid.
We’ll know who GB really wants to punish by who he makes Health Secretary.
“even people like dobson” - dobbo is and always has been a brownite.
137 yes I agree poor example, I was trying to point out MPs who have rebelled on notable occasions are not supporting MacDonnell which leaves him with very few MPs appeal to.
132. Nah, Blue Moon. It was just a supposition, but I’m not 100% convinced by it.
Let’s put in this way, I certainly agree that there has been a lack of transfer from MM to McD.
Some of the people not having nominated so far include
Ann Begg
Colin Burgeon
Stephen Byers
Charles Clarke
Vernon Coaker
Michael Connarty
Jim Cousins
Jon Cruddas
Andrew Dismore
Jim Dowd
Gwyneth Dunwoody
Frank Field
Bruce George
Nia Griffith
David Hamilton
Kate Hoey
Austin Mitchell
Alan Milburn
Ann Picking
Terry Rooney
The 2 Tony Wrights
Some of them will never nominate McDonnell
So what’s the consensus among pb.comers?
Cruddas has made it, Benn can still make it, McDonnell won’t make it…?
How many of the MP’s who have not nominated a deputy leadership candidate are cabinet ministers and might decide not to nominate anyone?
139. Yes Kate Hoey would be an unlikely McDonnell nominator. Refer you to 128.
These 25 MPs have nominated a deputy but not a leader - sorted by deputy nomination:
Benn Mullin MP, Chris Sunderland South
Benn Winnick MP, David Walsall North
Blears Dowd MP, Jim Lewisham West
Blears Hodgson MP, Sharon Gateshead East and Washington West
Blears McDonagh MP, Siobhain Mitcham and Morden
Blears McKenna MP, Rosemary Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Blears Milburn MP, Rt Hon Alan Darlington
Blears Pound MP, Stephen Ealing North
Cruddas Burgon MP, Colin Elmet
Cruddas Cruddas MP, Jon Dagenham
Cruddas Hamilton MP, David Midlothian
Cruddas Havard MP, Dai Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Cruddas Kilfoyle MP, Peter Liverpool, Walton
Cruddas Mitchell MP, Austin Great Grimsby
Cruddas Rooney MP, Terry Bradford North
Cruddas Stringer MP, Graham Manchester, Blackley
Cruddas Trickett MP, Jon Hemsworth
Cruddas Truswell MP, Paul Pudsey
Harman Dismore MP, Andrew Hendon
Harman George MP, Rt Hon Bruce Walsall South
Harman Mackinlay MP, Andrew Thurrock
Harman Mactaggart MP, Fiona Slough
Johnson Hall MP, Mike Weaver Vale
Johnson Hoey MP, Kate Vauxhall
Johnson Wright MP, Anthony Great Yarmouth
McDonnell’s bid is over.
Stonch, I have to say that despite the huge amount of animosity I have witnessed from all sides on this site, your posts on this thread have been the most obnoxious and rude I’ve come across. I don’t understand why people like you post. Is it just for some warped sense of amusment you get from insulting people? You certainly don’t seem interested in having a conducive exchange of views for greater understanding.
However, in my naivety, I always believe that that’s what people are interested in beneath all the antagonism. In that spirit, I will try to articulate my views.
The present constitutional framework clearly is not fair or equitable. At present, MPs for Scottish seats can vote on issues which affect the English, Welsh and Northern Irisih but do not affect their constituents. This is unacceptable as it means
the voting decision for Scottish MPs on such issues is entirely unaccountable to anyone. It is especially problematic when (1) the MP question is voting for something that he/she would vote against should it affect their constituency, or (2) had the Scottish MPs votes are discounted, a vote would have gone the other way. This is clearly anti-democratic and unfair to those that do not have devolved powers. For these reasons this will build up resentment amongst the population that is not under devolved government, especially when the area under devolved government is subsidised by the area that isn’t. For these reasons the system must be amended to return balance to the disenfranchised. There are several ways to amend this.
(1) Reverse devolution and return to a unitary state. This would be my personal preference, but it is clearly not acceptable to the Scots. As such it is not a viable solution.
(2) Give England her own parliament, and create a UK Federal system. This would certainly bring balance to the system, but, considering England’s population is 50m and the UK’s is 60m, it seems foolish to have two levels of government so close to each other. It would be a huge amount of bureacracy and another level of politicians, without being particularly closer to the people.
(3) Create regional parliaments throughout England, within a UK Federal system. This would be pretty balanced but it would create a heck of a lot of bureacracy. Plus, the North-East has already rejected the idea of having such a system. There are fears that powerful regional government would be dominated by the needs of the only major city in each region.
(4) Amend the devolved parliaments so they simply consist of, for example, the MPs for Scotland rather than MSPs. On two days a week the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs could meet in their respective countries to decide more local decisions on health, education while the English MPs decide such issues for the English at Westminster. On the other days everyone meets at Westminster for non-devolved issues. This would be the best solution in my book, can’t understand why it isn’t being talked about more.
(5) Allow whatever regions of the country to have devolved parliaments for certain issues, but make a rule that your UK MP isn’t allowed to vote on that issue at the UK level. This is EVfEL. Of course, it means that, under certain conditions, on devolved issues that PM might lose his authority, but that doesn’t have to be a problem. Labour wins votes on economic, foreign policy decisions etc, but the Conservatives wins votes on healthcare reform. This happens a lot in the US when the legislature and executive are in different hands.
(6) The break-up of the UK. But this is sad and would end hundreds oof years of shared history.
139. McDonnell would do very very well to get half a dozen of those
I see Tony Lloyd did nominate Cruddas in the end. So much for him not nominating then!