Thompson GOP move sees his price tighten to 4/1
May 30th, 2007
Could the Republicans choose a movie actor again?
Big moves on the Republican White House ‘08 nominee markets following the news this afternoon that the lawyer turned movie actor turned Senator, Fred Thompson looks certain to run. He’s now trading at just over 4/1 and has moved into the third favourite position.
The idea that the party, which had its most successful years when ex-actor, Ronald Reagan served two full terms, might choose someone similar has been the cause of much speculation for weeks and Thompson has been attracting double figure support in the opinion polls.
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What’s driving the move to Thompson is that none of the three front runners in the GOP race appeals to conservatives within the party. McCain is seen as being just too old, the thrice-married Giuliani is portrayed as not standing for traditional values while Mitt Romney is a Mormon.
The 64 year old from Tennessee first came to public notice in the early 1970s when he was one of the lawyers in the Watergate inquiry. He then got involved in a case against his state governor over allegations that pardons to convicted criminals were being sold for cash. The scandal became the subject of a best-selling book and later a film, Marie, in which Thompson portrayed himself. This led to him appearing in a total of 18 movies, including In the Line of Fire, Die Hard II and The Hunt for Red October.
In 1994 he became a senator for his home state taking over the unused part of Al Gore’s term. When he stepped down he continued to remain in the public eye through his broadcasting work. He’s an analyst with ABC.
It’s all starting to look very interesting.
Mike Smithson
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Looks like the GOP have found their “anyone but” candidate. If the GOP do go with Thompson I can see the Dems going for the ’safe pair of hands’ that is Edwards.
He was certainly a better Actor than Reagan, lets hope he makes a better President. No reason to say he couldn’t go all the way to the White House. As Mike has outlined above, none of the 3 ‘leading’ candidates are really palatable to the Republican right and neither Clinton or Obama would be able to beat a Republican who commands the suport of their whole supporter base. Would have liked longer odds than 4-1 though for an 18 month bet.
Mike, have you tipped this man before? Is this someone else I hadn’t heard of, I’d been encouraged to back?
Mike, have you tipped this man before? Is this someone else I hadn’t heard of, I’d been encouraged to back?
3. http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/04/07/is-this-the-man-to-take-on-hillary-or-obama/
Sell Perma tan shares now! Hain out to 19/1. Ha Ha this should be funny.
Hmm. Giuliani - married three times, Thompson - married twice. McCain - early 70s, Thompson - mid 60s. Romney - Mormon, Thompson - Church of Christ. For someone who’s got a fairly short political CV and is best known as an actor, that’s not the strongest set of personal details to fight on.
Thompson’s odds may come in a bit further yet if/when he announces his formal candidature, though he’s already passed McCain into third place and is therefore already into the big league.
While the comparison with Reagan’s been made, it’s worth pointing out that Reagan had been a successful governor of California and was already by far the leading Republican candidate by late 1979 / early 1980, in no small part because of his run in 1976. Thompson by contrast is coming to this race having had a much shorter political career (if a more successful acting one). That career includes involvement with the defence team for Scooter Libby - a fact which will surely gain more airtime should he decide to go for it.
4 He was certainly flagged up by some on PB.com, if not Mike himself.
And if he runs, you’d better acquaint yourself also with the name of Bloomberg, because I think a Thompson nomination would be just enough to tempt the New York billionaire to run as an independent.
Btw, did you back Ivanov for next President after Putin? He’s in to 2/1 now, you know.
OT. Some significant movements in Benn’s price on Betfair in the last couple of minutes. Back price in to 2.14 from 2.74 and the best lay price is now 2.16. Is there a YouGov poll due out????
Mike, thanks for the article.
“It’s all starting to look very interesting.”
Yes it is. I was for McCain personally but he seems to inspire as much as IDS which is a shame.
Any one any idea what his platform will be?
Ten IDS or McCain.
Reply to point on previous thread.
General Election 2005. Labour lost the popular vote to the Conservatives in England. Labour does not have the mandate to govern England right now. I’m surprised so many are in denial about this. Labour has done disastrously in England since 2004 and the Kelly affair - i.e. the sudden death of Dr Kelly. They lost the popular vote in England, have never got it back, and lose by a wider margin with each passing year. Currently they are doing worse than 80 years ago. (The Liberals have a real chance of replacing Labour.)
England contains over 80% of the population of the UK, so this is significant. Compare with even 1992 (let alone 1987) and you will find the situation was no where near as strong for the Labour opposition - as for the Conservatives in 2005 in England. Labour actually lost the popular vote in England by a huge margin in 1992.
The situation for Labour was already extremely bad before Cameron came to lead the Conservatives. That he has led on PM is a clear sign that there will be a stronger swing in the marginals which need to ‘catch up’ with the rest of the electorate. Justice is slow, but sure.
Not everything Labour has done has been bad. Don’t get me wrong. Its just that MOST of what Labour has done has been bad - abolishing the Grant Maintained schools, anti-selection prejudice, undermining school disciplinary procedures and punishements, and deliberate grade inflation caused a collapse in school standards nationwide. Never before have so many fled to the private sector to escape state sector ruin. We are officially the worst in Europe now in many categories of attainment. This is just education. Of course, I won’t run through the full list of failure now - this is the tip of the iceberg.
Let do something, make a change, and let us look forward to a Liberal-Conservative coalition at General Election 2010.
4. Again I must claim I was the first person to mention his name on this website
American friends of mine were talking about him
I think he has a shot.
Just when you thought that the Tories were begining to close down the headlining of the grammar school debacle up pops the boy Osbourne from the tuck shop and says that the Conservative will actively oppose any attempt to open any further grammar schools regardless of local wishes. Very NuLabour
Cue spleen venting in the suburbs and a rush of blood over at Mrs Dales Diary !!
No great surprise there then as it had been assumed that he would eventually declare himself himself a candidate, hence his 2-3 month long positioning as fourth favourite on Betfair.
Personally, I’m disappointed since I had Sam Brownback as the “anyone but” candidate, but he has not managed to achieve that all important critical mass level of support when the dollars really start to pour in and my guess is that he will now withdraw, which is a pity since by all accounts he’s both able and charismatic and as such might just have given the Democrats a good run. IMO if any of the three current Republican frontrunners gets the nomination, he will face humiliation in November 2008.
4-1 seems a bit skinny to me for someone who hasn’t even confirmed he’s standing. I will wait on events.
15. No. American have I think had their fill of an activist foreign policy for a few years hence. Brownback might come back in the future. But right now for all his abilities, his is a message the American people don’t want to hear.
14. Jack w. I think you may have mis-read the emphasis of Osborne’s speech. He is not anti-grammar in tone. He is simply reformist and localist in the speech - inviting the public to have a greater say in deciding how services are provided in education and health. He contrasts this with Brown who he describes as anti-reformist. And may be this is also a dig at the horrifying display of the Labour deputies on Tuesday. God save us, if these candidate ever get a say in government. Hain is a real threat to democracy and needs to be watched closely (security services take note). We can’t allow an ‘all-out Stalinist’ like Hain to get their grubby hands on power.
How I long for the old days of ‘gentle grandad socialist’. How can the Labour Party have become so nasty, mean and ugly? These Marxist hate rants must really be putting off the public. The Labour Party was never anti-grammar prior to the late-60’s. As mentioned before, the early-20th century socialists played the biggest role in creating them in the first place.
I am realistic. I don’t expect grammars to re-appear overnight as a formal system. That would be unrealistic as the public statement in favour of City Academies has already been made by the Conservatives. City Academies could benefit from a ‘bonfire of state regulations’ - as they are given more control and independence, and draconian entrance regulations are scrapped. This isn’t a true grammar system, as there isn’t a formalised nationwide test at 11, yet it is still a lot better than the atrocious ‘bog-standard comps’ we have to endure right now.
It will probably be in the second Liberal-Conservative term, that the argument could be won. ‘Time converts more than reason.’
It is a task of persuasion and it will take a few years to win it. Win it we will, I am sure.
Your talk of Liberal-Conservative coalition is failing to provide a reaction. Where is AHM?
18 Will L. Interesting “localist” position from Osbourne that puts two fingers up to locals who might want a grammar school !
There’s certainly no mis-reading the views of many Conservative activists on the blogs !!
If the leadership of the Tory party want to close down the grammar school issue they need to remember the rearranged adage :
Hole When Digging A Stop In
UKIP need issues other than Europe to steal Tory votes on. They have a solid one in Kent now. Not that UKIP will win a seat, but there a half a dozen Labour held marginals.
1. Spomeone else who thinks Edwards might surprise, thats two of us on pb.com.
I think that constitutes a supporters group.
4. I think his odds are reasonably short though still viable at this stage but if you are going to dip in, I wouldnt say go in big. Others may disagree.
I should add that people need to be careful over this emphasis on the republican right. Whilst they represent a strong, organised group they by no means necessarily be the decisive group in deciding the Republican nomination.
18. There is no need for a formalised national test at 11 - that all forms part of the top-down bureaucratic centralised approach that’s done so much to damage education in this country. Simply let all schools set their own admissions policy. As long as it is in compliance with discrimination laws, the school can choose the kids they want in accordance with it from the applications. If they have a shortfall, they’ll have to fill the spare places from the kids who didn’t get their first choice.
Under that system, there is no need to rig in favour of grammars as they wouldn’t formally exist - any school could select on academic ability, but only the best could fill all their places that way. Similarly, there would be no ’secondary modern’ stigma as they too wouldn’t exist (although of course there would still be bad schools that parents would want their kids to avoid).
24 As long as there are parents who do not get their kids into the schools they want , there will be unhappy voters with whoever is in charge of education and whatever policy they have set .
For myself , now my kids have long left school , it is of no great interest to me any more .
Being pedantic Gore became VP in 1993, meaning he’d have had to go from the Senate then right. So unless it was musical chairs, that’s when T got apppointed. Speaking of Senate any odds on Bill filling HC’s term if she makes the Presidency.
22. Isn’t one of the biggest problems for Edwards that without Hillary or Obama stumbling badly, he’ll have difficulty catching either, never mind both; and if one or both do have serious difficulties, there’s no guarentee that Edwards will be the one to benefit.
Ultimately, it boils down to the question: what’s his campaign about? Being a photogenic nice guy (with nice hair) is a good start but what does he offer that others don’t?
I still wouldn’t write Richardson off should a Hillary / Obama sized hole open up in the field. And waiting in the wings, hoping for the call and running a fine non-campaign campaign, is Al Gore. Some may see him as yesterday’s man - too old, too fat, too Green (now), and above all, too much the loser in 2000 (even though he won more votes) - but I for one wouldn’t rule him out at this stage by any means.
27. Edwards is an outsider ok but he is by no means quite as much the outsider many see him as.
As for Gore, he would kill off one of Obama or Clinton. Take your pick on which one. Secondly he’s anything but a loser in Democrat eyes. He lost by a controversial handful of votes in George W’s brother’s backyard. This loss was after a two term Democrat president and a comparatively republican Congress, something that showed a bit of a shift in people’s votes though they are not totally directly translatable.
All in all he did well to get the close.
Thirdly, a one time loser is not necessarily seen as a loser especially one so well branded as Gore has been in recent years.
26 Punter No - Gore’s term would have been 1990-1996. What happened was after Gore became VP the Democratic governor of Tennessee appointed someone else (Harlan Matthews) to serve out the just under two years until the next round of elections. Thompson then ran for the seat in 1994 in a special election and won a two year term. He hen had to run again in 1996 for the full 6 year term.
28. If Nixon can do it. Gore sure can. His activities mean at the flick of an energy saving light switch his campaign is ready to go plus it’s fresh and dramatic, Americans love dramatic.
27. Interestingly ,any Christian Conservatives have become increasingly allied to the environmentalist movement recently, caring for the Lords creation and all. Gore’s greenery could just could give him a route to nibble away at a key plank of the Republican coalition.
O/T but Guido is seriously embarassing Peter Hain over on his blog
Time for Nick Palmer to jump ship to Benn I think
Presumably the “Christian right” is only a decisive factor for Republican candidates who don’t appeal to the centre ground.
The problem with grammar schools is that they enable the hoi polloi to move up the social ladder.
Which is why our leadership will go to any length to stop them.
20 The problem with grammar schools is that they enable the hoi polloi to move up the social ladder.
Which is why our leadership will go to any length to stop them.
33. IF they don’t win the nomination they never get to the center ground.
34. Out of interest is it a rock solid Tory seat you live in.
18.Second Liberal-conservative term dream on for the utopia.
I live in Brent North. The association I’m Chairman of is Hertsmere, which is indeed rock solid.
38 Though Labour held the council outright from 1996 to 1999 (they held it in coaltion with the Lib Dems from `1994) and came within 3,000 votes in 1997.
More great publicity for Respect over the next few weeks - they’ve got another member in the Big Brother House.
Perhaps 99.999% of the population were wrong to think there last appearance a disaster?
40 - I think Tracey - an exponent of the ‘Ave it’ policy - will win!
Or maybe Emily who is a Conservative!!
Tuck in
My God £90k bet on Big Brother already.
A good each bet is Ron Paul
Ron Paul Most Demanded GOP Candidate
May 29, 2007
Congressman Ron Paul is the most demanded GOP presidential candidate on Eventful.com and the third most demanded candidate overall, trailing only Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Watch the CNN report from today by going to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZL6pVRb_YA
Latest Fred Thompson price now up a lot on Intrade market (on much greater liquidity than Betfair).
Last price traded of 26.9 implies odds of 2.7/1 (73.1/26.9)
For reference last Giuliani price was 25.6, so he’s now (temporarily at least) favouite!
Can some one remind me what the Labour equivalent of grant maintained schools is called?
40 - I did notice the striking similarities between her and the Viz character Millie Tant.
14,
Jack W - can you link to the speech with “active opposition” to local attempts to open selective schools with the proposed extra independence to schools?
All I can find is the speech at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6705263.stm which doesn’t have that in it (it does say that the Conservative party won’t actively promote the setting up of grammar schools - which isn’t exactly news - bit doesn’t say that they will interfere with new school sepection policies).
Oh, and Sean Fear at 34 and 25 - actually, the problem with grammar schools is that they aren’t very good at “enabling the hoi polloi to move up the ladder”. I went to a grammar school - but my mother “gamed” the system by scrimping and saving to an absurd degree to get me 3 years of private school at the start of primary school (and 4 years for my older sister). We were the only two pupils from our primary school to pass the 11+ in about 8 years. At least 2 members of my year were brighter than me (in my opinion).
My sister’s eldest sat the 11+ last year - he’s every bit as smart as either of us were back then. The only difference is that my sister could not provide any private assistance to him. He failed.
If 62% of bright affluent kids pass when only 30% of equally bright poor kids pass - is it doing its job? (It’s like basing it on the cycling abilities of kids - and allowing the richer ones top turn up on super-duper lightweight well-geared racing bikes while the poorer ones use clapped out heavy old-fashioned bikes. Sure, some of the best poorer kids will get across the line in the appropriate time while some of the richer kids lag behind - but it’s hardly an appropriate way of measuring their cycling ability)
For those 30% of bright-but-poor kids - sure, it’s great. Removing the existing grammar schools would be a negative step. Introducing new ones - if there were nothing better we could do - would also be useful, even though it isn’t properly fair and no longer works as well as in the past (I suppose you could posit a way of scaling the results of kids who couldn’t get private tuition to try to give them places at the expense of some of the less-able kids who did have tuition - but that would be fraught with problems, not least of which would be measurement and targets, so I’d rather not go there, as well as the backlash from middle-class parents whose kids got demoted).
A better way would bemoving towards freeing schools from central interference and moving towards an Education Voucher style of “funds attached to the pupil”. Kind of a like a system where all schools are independent and Assisted Places are provided for all pupils - which is very like the one proposed by Willetts. I’m surprised that you are so vehemently opposed - it seems good Conservative practice to me (reduced state interference, freedom of choice, action of free-market, leveraging successful institutions of the past, permiting social mobility).
Straight from thr horses mouth
I’m backing Balls for Chancellor !
Who will take the poisoned chalice?!
Alistair Darling [ 6 ] [21.43%]
Jack Straw [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Ed Balls [ 12 ] [42.86%]
David Milliband [ 3 ] [10.71%]
Stephen Timms [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Ruth Kelly [ 1 ] [3.57%]
Hilary Benn [ 1 ] [3.57%]
Alan Johnson [ 0 ] [0.00%]
John Hutton [ 1 ] [3.57%]
John Reid [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Peter Hain [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Charles Clarke [ 1 ] [3.57%]
Alan Milburn [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Patricia Hewitt [ 2 ] [7.14%]
John Healey [ 0 ] [0.00%]
Des Browne [ 1 ] [3.57%]
Re 47, Andy Cooke, I agree, and also with the local provision and money following the pupil. That said the other thing is setting and streaming, and a proper sense of discipline.
49, Benedict,
“That said the other thing is setting and streaming, and a proper sense of discipline.”.
Indeed - and those were specifically the only dictates that the Government would make, according to Willetts.
Re 50, Andy, yes. Now apart from city academies, what are labour doing that is like grant maintained schools? I can’t remember the name of the type of schools!
51, Foundation schools?
Re 52 Andy, No that is what they did to grant maintained schools, which then got their funding from the LEA as opposed to central government.
There is a class of school, maybe it is city academies that are not LEA controlled.
Umm.
Voluntary-aided schools?
Although I think that they predated GM schools, I don’t think that they are controlled by LEAs.
Re 54, Are not voluntary aided schools just another name for Catholic schools? (and similar state funded faith schools?)
I think it may well be city academies which are a bit like, oh what was out old version of those!
Sugar my memory is going!
City Academies are a bit like the City Technology Colleges (CTCs) set up under the Conservatives, if that’s what you’re after?
55 - City Technoloogy Colleges.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Technology_College
Where is JackW, when you need him, he probably sent his children to school around the time primary education became compulsory, he may remember!
Technoloogy? I’ve just got a new keyboard that doesn’t play up as well….
Re 56 and 57, many thanks. UkPaul what are the new schools Labour is setting up that are not LEA controlled? Are they city academies as well?
Re 59, UKPaul, I just put that down to modern educational standards
47.Agree with you on grammar schools Andy.
Finally someone has noticed that neither Blair or Brown has been in contact with Salmond, this pair of “soor plums” obviously don’t like seeing devolution working unless it is putting Labour in charge.
http://www.order-order.com/2007/05/downing-street-sore-losers-ignore.html
Re 62, ChrisD, Yes that is no surprise!
Oh, in Wales, Rhodri will be out on his ear to be replaced by a Plaid first minister and a Conservative deputy. More of course on my blog!
From Claire Lawson [Hain 4 Labour]
URGENT
Dear all,
This is very urgent indeed - please can everyone make sure we
have as many votes as possible for Peter on the Newsnight
website. We’re currently getting squeezed to last.
Please vote now before the poll closes….
I’ll be in touch soon,
Many thanks,
Claire
http://www.order-order.com/2007/05/help-hain.html
Did anyone miss Peter make love to himself on TV yesterday? He gave the amazing line… ‘I led the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa’. Move over Mandela - Tango’s in town.
Re 65, Timbob, Not only did Peter Hain lead the anti apartheid movement in South Africa, he single handedly brought peace to Northern Ireland, and crucially invented motherhood and apple pie.
Mock ye not
And dont forget the Labour majority he achieved in the recent Welsh election………..
And dont forget the Labour majority he achieved in the recent Welsh election………..