Has Gordon of the”Courage” book got the guts?
May 31st, 2007
Should we be betting on a 2007 election on Betfair’s new market?
Is it worth betting on a 2007 general election on the new date market that’s just been opened on Betfair?
You have to select in six month bands going through to January 1st 2010. There’s little money on offer at the moment but this will build up as the market becomes known.
What are the chances that the author of the new book on Courage, Gordon Brown will take the chance and go for a new mandate that would guarantee him a full five year term?
Looking at the way the polls have move since Tony confirmed he was going then Gordon should surely take the possibility seriously.
Things are going well for Labour and the chances of a post-Blair media honeymoon must be quite strong.
The great thing is the party could still retain an overall majority even if the party was 2 per cent behind on the national vote. The Tories, by contrast. probably need a vote margin of 10 per cent so there’s a lot of margin wiggle room.
Whatever the new Betfair market is going to be fun to play in the lead up to the next election. I don’t think Brown will do it - a decision that he could regret. My money, when the prices are right, will be on Gordon going in 2010.
Mike Smithson
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Six month bands is silly IMO. That’s the problem with long term markets. By the time it could get interesting the chances are that the particular six month band will be decided.
Great market. Thanks for encouraging Betfair to really engage with political markets Mike.
I don’t think that the 23 MP’s on this projection would like to be sacrificed?!!!
I am assuming the nominal majority is 48 by the way and the LD gain, which was succefully held in the scottish elections is not included (The seat next to Brown’s). I think it is very unlikely that Brown will call an election for financial and more importantly political reasons. The Scottish set back - It was after all a GE that Labour just lost not a set of council elections. Brown and Blair campaigned flat out, i may also add.
An election this year is out of the question, Brown is not a couragous man in political terms although you might well look more positively in his private hurdles from leaving school and indeed ongoing.
Not a chance of an election before 2009, more likely 2010, I would say. Brown will get a good honeymoon, but going to the country so soon would look like caving in to Tory demands.
As i said on the previous thread it makes Cameron’s job easier even if he only won the 269. Brown won’t do that - not a chance.
Brown surprised everyone by announcing Bank of England Independence in his first week as chancellor.
However don`t think there is a chance of an election in his first year as PM.
Labour has a 64 seat working majority until June 2010.
Brown won’t go this year because he doesn’t need to and has little to gain by doing so. What are the chances of him gaining seats? Close to nil I’d say, so why wait thirteen years for the leadership only then to risk everything for the possibility of an extra two and a half years that might not prove to be of any use anyway (if Labour loses a majority)?
I agree with both Mike and SBS - 2010 should be favourite.
6. Yes but there was nothing anyone could really do about it!
They had just completly trounced the opposition (Conservatives) in an election and the Blair/Brown team swept all before it. They had a very strong mandate and a huge parliamentry majority to push anything sensible through (Plus loads of new backbenchers wanting to get promotion!!!).
Brown will not risk it, he has waited 10 years plus to be PM. He will want a fair crack of the whip first to try and get the game to play on his terms instead of the tories dictating the weather.
Six-month bands is fair enough. Same as asking “May or October”. This year? Although I don’t think he’ll do it, I’m sure Gordon will now be asked to seriously consider it by his advisers. Gordon could persuade a lot of voters not to take the risk of change, but the majority would almost certainly be cut, and there are still 3 whole years of this parliament left to run.
I think a lot of Labour folk don’t relise how many people were persuaded over by Blair and once he has gone they will go back to the tories or LD’s. Even if we consider the polls to be reflected in a GE, this could through up some very different results in my opinion.
I would like Brown to call an election at this time, I think it is the right thing to do and even if Labour win a 2 seat majority provide a more cohessive opposition / government challange.
I think a lot of Labour folk don’t relise how many people were persuaded over by Blair and once he has gone they will go back to the tories or LD’s. Even if we consider the polls to be reflected in a GE, this could through up some very different results in my opinion.
I would like Brown to call an election at this time, I think it is the right thing to do and even if Labour win a 2 seat majority -provide a more cohessive opposition / government challange.
Broxtowe
Region: East Midlands
MP Nick Palmer (LAB) Electorate 69,943 Turnout 68.62%
2005 Votes 2005 Share User Prediction
LAB 20,028 41.73% 40.34%
CON 17,897 37.29% 40.30%
LIB 7,721 16.09% 12.78%
OTH 2,351 4.90% 6.58%
LAB Majority 2,131 4.44% Pred Maj 0.04% LAB Hold
Don’t think Nick Palmer will be egging Brown on for an election this year!!!
Although it could put him in an interesting position if Dunfermline and West Fife stayed LD!!!
I think if the turnout was the same their would be just 1 or 2 votes in it!
It would be like Winchester and what happened to Mark Oaten (Only the election).
Martin - that’s 4 in a row …
And now for war and peace!!!
What’s in it for Labour to go early?
They have no chance (currently) of holding seats like Finchley, Dartford, Medway, Harlow etc., so why throw them away?
That looks like a fun Broxtowe election, Martin - where do you get the projection? I can’t speak for anyone else, but if we get a lead of say 6% sustained over a couple of months, I’d say let’s go for a fresh mandate. Gordon can keep it open - when DC presses him, the reply is “Be careful what you ask for…”
Had a closer look at MORI - contrary to what we supposed, most of the Labour imrpvoement is reflected in the ‘preferred party’ figures without the turnout filter (Lab +3, Con -1; with the turnout filter it becomes +4/-1). So although there’s a bit of increased certainty to vote in there, it’s mostly switching from other parties.
They also had a recent survey on general attitudes, showing improvements across the board (but remember that this one doesn’t have adjustments for turnout etc., so it’s only useful as a comparison to previous surveys, not as raw figures):
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2007/mdi070513.shtml
also, labour simply cannot to fight an election. major held out until 1992, brown will hold out until 2010.
Brown go for an early election. LOL, that takes “courage”. GB has none of the required “courage” IMHO
O/T
I have been singing the praises of my frien Ron Paul for a little while now on this site.
Seems punters are nibbling at his long odss,most interesting.
I will try to keep you informed “ahead of the game”
Ron Paul Odds Slashed Dramatically: 15 to 1 from 200 to 1
It was only two weeks ago that 2008 Presidential candidate Ron Paul was listed at Sportsbook.com with odds of 200 to 1. In fact, early in the month he was not even offered on the political betting menu. My how things have changed in the past month.
Carrie Stroup here with some startling news concerning Ron Paul. Sportsbook.com (see website here) had experienced such a dramatically insurgence of betting action on Mr. Paul over the past two weeks they were forced to slash odds from 200 to 1 to the current 15 to 1 odds.
“Ron Paul is a serious contender whose grass roots campaign is growing dramatically,” explains Payton O’Brien, Senior Editor of Gambling911.com, one of the world’s leading political betting news sources. “No other single candidate for US President has received the type of interest generated here at Gambling911.com.”
Case in point, articles on Ron Paul in some cases generated four times the amount of interest than both Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani articles combined.
Catholic MPs supporting Abortion to be refused Communion.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23398838-details/Top+Scottish+Cardinal+attacks+Catholic+politicians+for+backing+abortion/article.do
This will impact on Labour and Lib Dem. MPs will alter behavior. Voters will alter votes.
ps. Hello Benedict White. Cameron listens to the Horses Arse.
18 Sorry Nick , there is a bit of dreamland here after a few polls showing a small recovery in Labour support . Let’s wait and see what the next couple of weeks byelections show with real people going out to vote . I suspect that they will still show dismal Labour votes .
Brown doesn’t have a mandate to govern either England (2005) or Scotland (2007). What a strange position he will be in. My advice would be to seek consensus and compromise in the interests of the country as a whole. Reach out to the Conservatives and build a consensus with Cameron where both can agree. This is my advice. Whether Brown accepts or not it is another matter.
Cameron is doing well - got into a lead in overall UK opinion polls, holding this lead for nearly 2 years, huge lead in England, significant improvement in Wales, holding in Scotland. Keep up the good work.
On a general election, there SHOULD be one this year. I would be the first to agree. This is a moral argument - with a better constitution it would be required. The reality is, as things stand, Brown will hold on to the bitter end in June 2010. He knows he cannot win a GE.
Perhaps with a better cabinet he could improve his legitimacy. I do now think Darling would be a competant Chancellor (looked into his performance - he had had a steady hand and tremendous experience at the Treasury), Straw could do either Home Secretary or Foreign Sec well, Miliband, Benn and Johnson need promotion.
On the Tory side the shadow cabinet looks strong, Cameron Future PM, Osborne Chancellor, Davis Home Secretary, and Hague Foriegn Secretary. This is an excellent team. Perhaps bring back Howard for some contribution (he did win the popular vote at GE 2005 in England - a dramatic turnaround from the previous two elections).
I would have to say about Willets - just move him sideways. He is bright and deserves a second chance. Most of all the Conservatives need to be the ‘Ideas Party’, leading with a vision that unites the country and gives every person purpose. The UK should aspire to be the greatest country in the world (I agree with Blair). The Conservatives are best placed to realise this vision.
Let us look forward to the Liberal-Conservative coalition.
Nick,
On my brand-new Curtice-probability-swingometer (based largely on John Curtice’s paper on how he produced the 66 majority prediction in 2005 from the exit polls), off of the MORI figures and with the following assumptions:
-Pollster bias (if any) will be unchanged from 4/5/05
-Ignoring regional variation in swing
-Ignoring any tactical vote unwind
-Ignoring local factors (eg, you seem to have an above average personal vote which would help you)
… Broxtowe has an 86.5% chance of being lost.
Which gives you a fighting chance anyway (about one in seven before you bring your email list/ personal vote into play).
Re 25 - I meant to say that you have a fighting chance even with the current MORI figures.
Could Labour actually afford to fight a General Election?? They owe millions already.
Heard two reliable is sources about a snap poll. Interesting
I think that a 2007 GE is now an absolute certainly.
There’s no way that the British people will throw out a newly installed PM - unfortunately.
Poor David Willetts. He had a sort of cool confidence when John Snow emasculated him earlier on Channel 4 News now under Paxman he’s become a hollowed out wreck. That’s what happens when your leader lands you in the shit because he’s not up to the job.
Incidentally what is the Shadow attorney general ‘fact finding’ in Israel? How to treat prisoners?
Is Gordo a chancer, is there a gambler lurking beneath that bluff exterior, will he go for it. Could do! the Tories are looking discomforted, will he twist on 18, might be worth a flutter.
30 Roger. He’s looking for some kosher grammar schools !
Oopps …. there are plenty in his own county of Bucks !
24 - Govern by consensus with the tories! That’s exactly what happened on Iraq and see where that got us. It was also happening on ID Cards until Cameron stepped in and changed tory policy.
Wouldn’t the Libdems just love Labour to govern by consensus with the tories. That would leave them as the effective opposition.
30 Roger. Just watched the tape of Willetts being Paxoed.
Some Tory turkey, some stuffing !!
Gobble … gobble
29 If you hurry, Steven, you can scoop up a couple of hundred quid by laying all the options other than 2007 on Betfair.
I wonder will Gordon Brown be interviewed by Paxman on the day he becomes PM.?
36 AnnaK. Don’t bet your pension on it !!
“Brown doesn’t have a mandate to govern either England (2005)”
Will L - why? Because they got very slightly less votes than the Tories, but won most the seats? Do you favour straight PR Israeli-style then?
wot planet do you people live on? NuLabour are utterly unelectable. the country voted recently and they voted against labour in a massive way. This in the context of a totally ineffectual opposition. Gordon Brown is a dead man walking and it is highly likely the labour party itself doesnt survive beyond the next election.
NuLabour have ruined the country, bankrupted the country and ruined our international reputation………..they will never escape that legacy. there is zero chance of a voluntary election until the very last moment.
39 If you hurry, Steve, you can scoop up £25 by laying all the options other than 2010 on Betfair.
39 - if you carry on spinning like that, you’ll soon be in orbit!
“ruined the country, bankrupted the country” - eh?
Does anybody watch QT these days. Sarah Teather was better than usual; Simon Schama was excellent; Greg Dyke just came across as a very bitter man - no match for Ken as mayor of London; Hattersley was a wise old Lab statesman; Caroline Spelman good in parts, but awful on the grammar school question - poor love!
23: There’s no way that the British people will throw out a newly installed PM - unfortunately.
They did in 1923 - and I think they would here. “Cutting and running” would be the obvious rejoinder.
25: Thanks, Andy! The Beeston Central by-election next week should give a useful pointer since the Tories have brought in help from all over the city and are spending lavishly on leaflets: we’ll see if it works. We’ve canvassed everywhere twice and are going round for the third time. All three major parties say they expect to win (yeah, so what else is new?).
43: Difficult to demand an early election and then moan about cutting and running if you get one. Not impossible, but difficult.
Mike, Brown may have a bounce, but trust me, he is piling up the votes in all the wring places and even if he did win an overall majority, it would be a very hard time trying to rule with his awkward squad.
I would also point out that whilst he writes about courage he does not appear to display any.
29. Ha ha ha! I just don’t get why so many people are even considering the idea that a 2007 general election is remotely likely. The Labour Party doesn’t have enough money; it’s got a mandate for a full term; it is dodgy in the opinion polls at the moment
Nick, why don’t you join the Tories, retain your seat at the election and help build a better Britain.
47: You’re the second person this evening to urge me to change my mind for supposed personal advantage (someone else wanted me to drop Peter Hain). Certainly not. And we have seen the Tories attempting to build a better Britian - I’ve no wish to revisit the experience. Brrr!
Re 44, Nick Palmer, “Difficult to demand an early election and then moan about cutting and running if you get one. Not impossible, but difficult.”
Well you lot got away with scrapping our policies and then bringing them back with a fanfare so that is just politics!
I think it is outrageous that Brown is not going to call a 2007 election. He has no mandate.
He should follow the example of John Major, who immediately called an election as soon as he became Tory leader.
oh no he didn’t
Has an opinion poll showed Labour ahead?
18. I put the figures 37 (Tory) 35 (Labour) and 18 LD.
Think you would have a few recounts if that happened!
52. The poll on previous thread!
The loss by Joe Higgins (Socialist Party TD) of his seat in the Irish Parliament may lead Marxists to some pessimistic conclusions.
As the Socialist Party Ireland in its post-election analysis correctly says: ‘the economic situation is likely to change quickly and bring with it instability.’
The Southern Ireland economy, like all Anglo-Saxon countries, has experienced debt-fuelled bubble mainly centred on the building of houses and flats.
It is therefore necessary for Marxists to have a correct understanding of the period we are passing through. Historical analogies can play a role in this.
Tony Cliff, the late leader of the British Socialist Workers Party, incorrectly in my view, described the political situation in the 1990s as: ‘the 1930s but in slow motion.’
Instead, I can see similarities between the political situation in 2007 in all the Anglo-Saxon countries with those present in the USA just before the 1929 Wall Street Crash.
The big difference between 1929 and 2007 is that in 1929 it was share prices which were the vehicle for financial self-destruction whereas in 2007 it is property prices.
Mrs Thatcher’s ‘property owning democracy’ has definitely had a political effect on the home-owning working class, not only in the UK, but also in Southern Ireland.
Marxists must therefore have a correct understanding of the prospects for property prices in the UK, Southern Ireland, and all other Anglo-Saxon countries.
So what are the prospects for property prices worldwide? The recent developments in the housing market in the USA give a glimpse of what will happen elsewhere.
Following the collapse in the ‘sub-prime’ mortgage market in late 2006 / early 2007 property prices in the USA are falling, especially in Florida and Michigan.
The two recent quarter percent rises in interest rates by the Bank of England, with a further rise expected in August, will have an effect on property prices in the UK.
However, for a collapse in property prices to take place in London and the South-East Marxists may have to wait until the financial bubble in the City of London bursts.
A trigger for the bursting of the City of London bubble may be a collapse in the Chinese stock market, a rise in US interest rates, or an implosion of Hedge Funds.
If the bursting of the financial bubble is delayed, Marxists must be prepared for similar election results in the UK as those which occurred in Southern Ireland.