So what job has Jack been promised?
May 31st, 2007
What’s his reward for delivering Brown his coronation?
Looking back over the past three months the move that secured the leadership and Number 10 for Brown without the bother of a contest was the appointment of Jack Straw to run the Chancellor’s campaign.
At the time Straw himself was being tipped as a contender and everybody assumed that he must have been promised something big. But what was that going to be for the former boss of both the home and foreign offices? Blair had moved him out of the latter, it was reported, because of protestations from Condoleezza Rice.
The only one of the the major posts that he hadn’t held was Chancellor and on the markets all the money starting going on him to be Brown’s successor there. From a price of more that 8/1 in February the Straw betting moved to him becoming the 6/4 favourite for the treasury.
Given the sensitivities about having too many Scotsmen in top positions and the assumption that Gordon would not want to upset the White House by giving Straw back the foreign office the chancellorship looked the obvious one.
But the money began moving away from Straw in the past week or so following the suggestions that he might be being lined up for Deputy PM.
Now the messages that are coming out are that the winner of Labour’s deputy leader contest will, like John Prescott, get that role.
If the latest deputy PM speculation is to be believed then we are back to the question - what’s Jack been promised?
In the “next chancellor” betting Scotland’s Alistair Darling has now tightened to what seems to be an incredibly mean 2/5 while Straw is the 8/1 second favourite.
At these prices I think it’s worth a punt again on Straw.
Mike Smithson
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If Jack Straw reappeared as Foreign Secretary, that would do a lot to ease the tensions in the Middle East - and now that the USA has got as far as talking to Iran (Straw said it was nonsesne to think of invading Iran - which is wht Condie wanted him out) and Condeleeza’s moved on, it would be a bright move to put Straw back in place. The Blair sucking up to Washington era would be over. Phew!
If Jack Straw reappeared as Foreign Secretary, that would do a lot to ease the tensions in the Middle East - and now that the USA has got as far as talking to Iran (Straw said it was nonsense to think of invading Iran - which is why Condie wanted him out) and Condaleeza’s moved on, it would be a bright move to put Straw back in place. The Blair sucking up to Washington era would be over. Phew!
Tapestry @ 1 — It seems unlikely Brown would wish to start his premiership by pointlessly antagonising our major ally.
So if not Foreign Secretary, why not a return to the Home Office? Well, because Blair and Reid have broken it up for no very good reason. Ladbrokes have Jack Straw as even money favourite to be next Home Secretary but I cannot see Straw wanting to return to a lesser department nor Brown annoying Blairites by putting the Home Office back together agin (at least not for a year or so).
After ten years of confident budget leaks that never came true, I am disinclined to believe that Brown has leaked his first Cabinet or that the money for Darling is inspired. Straw must be the value selection at anything above 4/1 (implying a 20% chance of Straw being Chancellor).
Whatever the White House wanted, it should be No 10 that decides the appointments in the British cabinet. Given how Bush defers to Cheney over Blair (or Rice), the idea that the British PM should have to seek approval from Washington before appointing a foreign secretary is laughable. Or at least it should be were it not that the strong suspicion is that Blair behaved in exactly that way. Anyhow, the point is that the Blair era is the exception, as Tapestry implies.
The Iran comments from Straw have been proved in the light of events to be entirely right, as should have been obvious at the time. Developments in America - the mid-term results and the Bush presidency now entering its last 20 months - just added extra momentum to the diplomatic route.
But if Straw can be considered for Foreign Secretary again, the question is does he want it, or would he prefer Chancellor if it’s on offer?
The obvious choice would be to return to the Foreign Office. After all, the Treasury won’t be an easy job with Brown as PM and Balls (probably) as Chief Secretary. Blair going will also make the FO a more attractive appointment, especially to someone like Straw who has at least as much experience as Brown in foreign matters. Still, Straw is surely better than an 8/1 shot.
How about Lord Chancellor? Loads of money and you get to dress up! Perfect for a lad from Blackburn.
“So what job has Jack been promised?”
I’ve been offered none so far …. however the rumour mill has it that I’m to be the new regulator, the head of OFMISS. It’s certainly very much a hands on job !!
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2007-05/26/xin_470504261729037541912.jpg
“what job has Jack been promised?”
Certainly not ‘Consort to Condoleza Rice’ after all the hoo-hah when he took her on a presidential motorcade of the North West.
Dangrous Prescott-potential if you ask me. And I’m not talking croquet.
4: That makes a lot of sense David. Brown doesn’t have all that much experience in foreign affairs so appointing someone respected and with extensive FO experience himself is more and more plausible.
I looked through the headlines on the BBC News website this morning: a suicide of a prisoner in Guantanamo, Blair to speak in South Africa to “subtly encourage” pressure against Robert Mugabe, over 100 US soldiers killed in Iraq this month - and it’s hard to find details on the number of Iraqis killed as there is nothing ‘newsworthy’ of hearing of daily shootings, bombs and attacks.
To be a bit franker than usual, the American foreign policy we have followed so closely is a life-destroying, value-ignoring shambles, and if Gordon Brown doesn’t have the balls to have a Foreign Secretary who doesn’t always secede to the Washington line, then there is no real hope for improvement. Straw is hardly radical, but I can think of worse…
OT, but. There’s been further movement on the Aussie exchange. For a Labour win, the average of the Australian bookies, which I’d previously reported as going from 1.85 on 19th May to 1.75 on 24th May, is now 1.75. Labour is trading at below 1.80, with some recent trades in the low 1.70’s. Meanwhile, the Coalition, who about three weeks ago were below 2.0 on Betfair, have now traded at 2.40.
As Alexander reported a couple of days ago, the latest Newspoll put Labour at 60% on a TPP basis. Another one a few days earlier had them at 55% TPP, so the underlying 57-58% is being sustained.
I agree with John L that it’s extremely unlikely that GB has leaked his likely appointments, and I’d go further: I doubt if he’s told Jack what to expect - appointments are not usually promised weeks in advance. Clearly Jack will be given a senior job, and I shouldn’t think he wants the Home Office again. So if the market has made one candidate odds-on it’s probably crowd psychology.
On the other hand, remember that Labour doesn’t really buy the “public is wary of Scotsmen” line (except for people who don’t vote for us anyway) - the refusal of the WLQ to catch fire and repeated polls saying that whatever other reservations they might have had, most people aren’t bothered that GB is Scottish, mean that people are vastly more likely to care whether they think the new Chancellor looks competent than whether he was born in Edinburgh or Vladivostok.
OT. Just read Graham Brady’s resignation letter on ConHome. A much classier effort than Cameron’s reply. Con Home is an interesting mixture of the grovellingly sycophantic and the out and out hostile. My guess is that Cameron wont make it through till the next election. He doesn’t seem able to deal with even the simple things. God help him when he starts on policy!
7/1 best available on Straw on Betfair now which may represent a smidgeon of value. The Foreign Office appears such a logical move however that it’s hard to get enthusiatic about such odds. Darling is poor value at 2/5 but remains the obvious choice. If he is preferred elsewhere, there are better candidates than Jack for the Treasury. Not Balls, whose sudden elevation could create problems, but Timms would have the edge over a fairly large pack.
Meanwhile, there’s easier money to be made on the Aussie elections. Alexander Drake and others gave us the heads up a while back on the likelihood of a Coalition defeat. Opinions now seem to vary as to whether a change of government is very likely, or very, very likely. There’s probably good value in backing Labour at 1.70, as the polls continue to indicate but even better is the 3.55 on offer against Howard experiencing a Portillo moment in his Bennelong seat.
Fill your pouches, possums.
11. Phew, the Rogeracle has spoken. Means Dave will be leader for at least 10 years
What are the really big jobs in the next Cabinet? Besides the usual suspects there are Health and Defence (though what the MoD really needs is a competent junior minister to sort out procurement and logistics). The Environment is probably the most fun, with lots of grandstanding at conferences in exotic locations but whether it would tempt a serious politician is unclear.
Maybe Straw would go to the House of Lords with a remit to sort out the dog’s breakfast that has been made of constitutional reform.
11 Roger: “Graham Brady - classy”.
Now I know he’s lost the plot…
It’s DC’s first major cock-up - and even then, it might prove to be a masterstroke if it reinforces the public perception of a changing Tory party. And all publicity is good publicity - we’re hearing more of the Tories and their policy ‘debate’ (such that it is
) of late than we are from the Government.
10 Nick P
May I echo your view that most voters don’t care where the next Chancellor was born. I would go further a say that if the entire Cabinet comprised born and bred Scots, few would care if it did a decent job. Political journalists would of course have a field day but then as Mark Twain pointed out, newspapers have to fill the same amount of space each day regardless of the amount of news available.
My reluctance to back Darling at such cramped odds stems from the suitability of other posts as well as Chancellor. He is a close ally of GB and reputed to be a very safe pair of hands. GB doesn’t have a surplus of such candidates and he will want to deploy Darling to best effect.
I’ve a feeling that Chancellor will be a post Brown has few concerns about. He already has a strong team there and knows them well. Treasury policy has been determined by Prudence himself and he may feel he just needs somebody sound, reliable and unspectacular to mind the till. Perhaps he would feel Darling’s skill, competence and loyalty could serve him better at Health, Defence, or the Foreign Office if for some reason it doesn’t go to Straw. This is why I won’t back him at 2/5 for Chancellor.
The safest bet is that Brown inserts one of his rivals into the treasury. With the economy about to implode wouldnt it be the ideal job for Miliband? The shameful performance of the deputy candidates will allow brown to have a massive clearout of the utter rubbish in the cabinet and promote the equally rubbish, but younger, Brown supporters like balls and the other miliband.
I think Brown will wait and see who wins the deputy leader job. If he likes the winner and considers them not to be a loose canon he will make them DPM, if not then bring in Straw.
Can you really see Brown allowing Cruddas to stand in for him when he is away from the country?
16. PtP, I agree, I wouldn’t touch Darling at 1.5ish. He may well be one of the favourites, but there is no value in those odds. If for some reason neither Darling nor Straw were to be next Chancellor then Timms would be a fair possibility. I know I have been banging on about Timms for ages and of course he probably wont get it, but as of yet Roger hasn’t backed him, so he is still in with a chance!
OT. The SNP government body swerves its first parliamentary defeat :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1436656.0.0.php
If the Dep Leader is not necessarily going to be Dep PM then that leaves the obvious Dep PM role for Straw!!
re 11. Roger - you can get 4/1 on Cameron being the first leader out. If your view is right then that might be a good bet. I trust you are backing up your prediction with hard cash.
My future cabinet (if I were Gordon):
Chancellor: Dave M.
Foreign: Jack S
Home Office: Hazel
Health: Johnson
Education: Caroline Flint
Defence: Keep Dez there
Culture: David Lammy
Chief Sec to Treasury: Ed Balls
DPM - Harman - even if she doesn’t win.
Leader of the House: Tessa Jowell
Dep Leader - Benn
Chairman (with place in cabinet) Cruddas (yes!)
Environment: Ed Miliband
DfID: John Denham
The rest can stay where they are for the time being.
What do you think? Ben and Cruddas to work together to rebuild the party.
OT. Will Alex Salmond offer the boy Osbourne a role in the government …… it’s looking promising :
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=848602007
I don’t know what Jack has been promised, but it must be big. That said as Nick pointed out he may well have not been promised anything specific.
Just to confirm that Roger, as always, is wrong. Jack Straw is from Essex and attended Brentwood School (Brentwood is in Essex, in case Roger thinks it is near Monaco).
As a fully paid up wealthy socialist Roger has yet to enlighten as to his opinion on Margaret Hodge, although the Gorbals Kiss from Roger will probably ensure that she is re-selected by acclamation.
O/T but thought people might be interested in this on the voting in the Deputy Leadership race:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/philip_cowley/2007/05/how_to_come_third_and_still_wi.html
OT France - new TNS Sofres poll and seats prediction (only the 555 metropolitan seats)
UMP + allied centrists 410 to 430 seats
PS + allies 101 to 142 seats
PC 4 to 10 seats
MD 2 to 6 seats
MPF 2 to 3 seats
Green 1 to 3 seats
More poll gloom for socialists and pretty everyone except the UMP.
The underlying poll (and comparison with 19 may poll) is :
UMP and allies 42% (+2)
PS 27% (-1)
MD 10% (-5!)
FN 4% (+0.5)
PC 4% (+0.5)
far-left 4 (+0.5)
Green 3 (-1)
Other right-wing 2%
MPF 1.5%
CPNT 0.5% (-0.5)
MNR 0.5%
Others 1.5%
This poll was the first by TNS Sofres to use the names of the actual candidates in each constituency : this explains the sharp fall of the MD (Bayrou is much more popular than the bunch of unexperienced nobodies he rapidly named as candidates) and the rise of “others” and “other right-wing”.
All pollsters note that the widened gap between left and right is a consequence of a weaker turnout from left-wing voters (the uninspiring bitter fights between socialist leaders does not help in this regard…)
Deputy
HB 2.44
AJ 3.75 (and drifting)
JC 7.6 (time to trade out ?)
HH 9.8
HBle 13.5
PH 20 - the future isn’t orange…
I thought HH was GB’s choice ?
I know this wouldn’t happen, but I am right in thinking that when Brown becomes Leader of the Labour party he could the ask Straw to be Prime Minister?
In a similar way could Blair have remained leader of the Labour Party but just asked Brown to be PM?
Presumably this can happen as haven’t there been times when the leader of a party has not sat in the Commons?
The article by Philip Cowley in the Guardian ( link at post 27 ) is a very good and clear explanation of how the whole deputy leadership works. Anyone thinking of putting money on the contest should read it especially with regard to turnout in the affliated organisations section and transfers. If the markets were for who is going to get most first preferences they would make sense but given the complete uncertainty over transfers the prices for Cruddas/Harman and even Blears make no sense but are a potential source of profit ( dont even think of laying any of the candidates unless it is to cover an earlier bet at a much higher price )
31 Yes, I agree very much with that jgc, especially the last bit about not laying except to cover.
There is one small caveat, more of a query really. I wouldn’t have thought Cruddas would pick up many transfers. You may be able to correct me, but intuitively I feel that he rather divides opinion and is likely to get plenty of sixes along with plenty of ones.
Any thoughts on that jgc, or anybody?
22. Thanks for the tip Mike. Unfortunately I think it might be a toss up between him and Ming so 4/1 doesn’t sound too attractive.
32. Harman could be the value as she will be in a lot of top 3s IMHO.
Perhaps its best to look who might be in a lot of bottom 3s : Hain (obviously), Blears (from Brownites) and even AJ.
Gordon should get some new blood into the cabinet. Denham, Flint, Lammy, Burnham for starters.
27 - yes - this is what I’ve been trying to point out for ages on other blogs!
I think it will be the candidate with the largest number of top 3 positions in the ballots.
So - no help for Hain or Cruddas, but very helpful to Benn, Harman and Blears. Johnson? I just don’t know tbh.
As for the Strawman’s job - Chief Scarecrow? Or could he be in line for the Attorney General role - not sure just how qualified you have to be for that one?
OT, back to my celtic cousins in Ireland.
Sinn Fein have reportedly ruled out supporting either Bertie Ahern of Fianna Fail or Enda Kenny of Fine Gael as Irish PM unless they get a cabinet seat.
This is unlikely but the possibility of a universial SF abstenstion lowers the bar for both blocs with a big fight for to support of the Progressive Democrats (2) and the Independents (5).
Bertie is still in the driving seat but this development could further open the door to a FF/PD/Indo minority administration (or combination thereof) if absolutely necessary.
33. Roger. A toss up implies even money. 4/1 about an evens shot sounds good value to me.
If you’d like to lay me 1/2 Ming I would be happy to oblige.
36. Pimpernel. Other blogs? I didn’t know there were other blogs.
I wonder if Benedict knows?
30 - the Prime Minister post remains in the gift of the Queen. Even New Labour have not subverted our Constitution THAT much!!
40. Well I’m sure they will find a way round it - they do tend to think of whats ours is theirs. More evidence in the Times today..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1862687.ece
32. Peter, not sure with Cruddas, he clearly is pitching himself as the outsider/left candidate (even if his personal history doesnt fit this profile) and this may suggest division though Harman, Hain and to some extent Johnson have been making leftish noises too. I agree he is not likely to get too many transfers from MPs though he does have some surprising supporters (checkout Tom Watson’s blog) but amongst the members and affiliates I think he will do well and may well pick up a good number of transfers.
Philip Cowley’s comments re Hazel Blears were interesting, from the London folk I have met whilst they think she is a good live performer they do not go for her politically (seen as too Blairite) but this might be a metropolitan thing and she might appeal more to northern members.
The problem from a betting point of view is the transfers are a big unknown, unless one of the candidates can get a big lead in first preferences ( I would guess getting over around 35% ) then the outcome could go a number of ways, as Philip Cowley says being third on the first round might be the place to be.
All this “gift of the Queen” crap makes me fume! The Queen will appoint as PM whoever Labour decides - she can do as she’s bloody well told. This isn’t the 1950’s!
10 I doubt GB is leaking appointments either but the burden of Webster’s piece was that he was very likely to give the DPM post to whoever wins the Deputy Leadership; personally I would doubt that this would include Cruddas but he doesn’t look likely to win anyway. He also wrote as I have posted for weeks that Straw will get one of the top 3 jobs; that means, as Webster made clear, HMT/Treasury/Home office. The latter simply isn’t credible; he would be furious at being given such a hospital pass after Reid’s various comments ‘not fit for purpose’ among them. That leaves Treasury ( which I’m sure Straw would like the most) and FO( I don’t buy this exaggerated stuff about Rice but the need for a fresh start on Iraq makes his appointment tricky to say the least..) Nick can say what he likes about the WLQ but GB is obviously very sensitive about the whole thing ( Gazza’s goal, his obsession about britishness etc etc). That is a strike against Darling but not a decisive one. I still think he’s favourite for HMT but if he doesn’t get it Straw will, mark my words. If you’re heavily green on Darling lay a few quid on Straw.
jgc. My feeling is that when one of the two female candidates is eliminated the other will do very well with tranfers and will go very close. Personally I feel Harman is the weakest of the 6 candidates but the betting and the various indicators seem to support her candidacy.
The challenge for Blears is to become the favoured female candidate before the ballot begins.
11. Roger, I must admit that I do sometimes struggle to see exactly what your purpose is. Why post something like that? You are posting on a forum where most people are a) partisan and b) moderately intelligent. You know you aren’t going to influence opinion with a comment of this quality. Furthermore most readers are aware that you yourself are unlikely to actually hold such an opinion. So it’s either so ironic that we are reaching the multiple levels of intellectual bluff and double-bluff. Or it’s just a joke falling flat.
Mind you it does undoubtedly engender amusement, albeit of the “laugh at” rather than “laugh with” variety, so it fulfils some social function – and, after all, are we not all reading this site precisely for that reason?
46.
???? Must be something in my cornflakes this morning. Seems genuine enough to me. A ‘comment’ rather than any attempt to gain more Tories to dine at Tony’s wake or pyre. Brady’s views, whatever you think of them are clear and coherent. Cameron? Views? Well on the one hand……
How’s about a double, Ming & Cameron to go before the next GE, odds Mike?
29.
So it’s likely to be tight at the finish.
Blears Splits to Johnson-Harman
Cruddas splits to Harman-Benn
Hain Splits to Benn-Johnson
Benn-Johnson? Time for a dope test?
48. I’d say DC should be about 8-1 so 8-1 the double
42 Yes, it’s interesting, isn’t it, and a difficult election to call.
The only certainty we punters can rely upon is the nominations by MPs. These are unlikely to change much. However, they were fairly evenly spread across the candidates so the lead Johnson had can easily be overhauled and it is well within the bounds of possibility that Benn could come from last to first if he polls well enough in the other two colleges.
The trouble with those colleges is that we can only surmise how they will go and even that will involve huge amounts of guesswork. We know what the CLPs think, and they favour Benn. We know what the Unions think, and the largest favours Cruddas. We do not know what percentage of CLP and Union members will vote, nor if they will tend to follow the recommendations of their leaders. It would be very dangerous to assume that Benn and Cruddas will get a major vote boost from their public backing by Union leaders and CLP executives.
Nor do I expect the YouGov poll to be particularly helpful when it comes. PBers know full well how difficult it is to interpret any poll but the DL poll seems to be hedged around with more uncertainty than most. How can YouGov be sure it is tapping into the right respondents and getting sensible replies? It’s difficult enough with a standard ‘which party’ vote but the DL leadersip under an AV system? If the MOE is less than 5% I will be mightily impressed.
It may be that the best form guide in the two most unclear colleges will be from anecdotal evidence. Who is doing well at hustings? How are bloggers and the like reacting? Even the jokey Newsnight poll might tell us something, if it wasn’t doctored.
As I’ve said before, I wouldn’t be taking short odds about anybody in this election. Hain did seem to offer good value but he doesn’t seem to be getting any momentum. Blears’ odds look OK but again she doesn’t quite seem to be convincing enough people she’s a DL in the making. Harman? Possibly, but some don’t like her at all. Benn? Odds too short and he does have ground to make up. Johnson? The safe choice, but not exactly setting the world alight. Cruddas? Not sure there’s much value left in him at 7/1 and he doesn’t seem to have much backing amongst parliamentary colleagues, outside of his nominators.
I seem to have ruled them all out. Time to stop typing.
51. I’ve heard that Stephen Byers’ CLP (North Tyneside) has nominated Cruddas last night. That’s what you get when you call for the abolition of inheritance tax.
In an attempt to gain the upperhand on Harriet Harman Blears HQ are launching another T shirt with the slogan:
Pistachio Labour or Pasticcio Labour the choice is yours!
51 - don’t forget that although only MPs had the nominations, the rest of the actual college includes MEPs, MSPs and AMs too - and I would think the MEP vote will be overwhelmingly towards the right as most of them got to Europe by being ultraBlairite and therefore high up the favoured lists… Though there ain’t too many of them!
52. Seriously? I really can’t get my head round that. I know people in that CLP and they are pretty centre-right Johnson types. Have Darlington nominated TimBob?
54 Thanks Pimpernel. No I hadn’t forgotten but I don’t know how they have declared.
We need Andrea.
Calling Milan, calling Milan….
OT. Meanwhile over at Mrs Dales Dairy the head udder puller is reporting that Andy Coulson, former editor of the News of the Screws, is to appointed as Head of Communications at CCHQ !!
Well, at least he’ll now have the insider track on all the Conservative sex scandals that are fit to suppress !!
54. I don’t think AMs or MSPs count as having the same weight as MPs and MEPs. I’m pretty certain that they have no more voting power than a regular party member.
56 PtP. It’s nearly Andrea’s “D Day” !!
56 - I think Andrea (or someone) previously reported that Johnson had by far the most MEPs backing him (half of them maybe with about one or two for each of the other candidates).
I thuink Politicalbetting, should start a competition, ‘can you come up with a more pointless job than Deputy leader of a Political Party’ First prize a week in Basingstoke, second prize two weeks…..
ptp: I think it’s correct that Jon Cruddas will do much better in first preferences than others: he’s identified himself in a separate position from the others, which is both a strength and a weakness with AV. That may be why he’s toned down the left-wing rhetoric recently - Harriet sounded more left-wing than he did on Newsnight. Hazel also polarises people, I think. Hain, Benn, Harman and Johnson are all competitive in 2nd preferences in the PLP.
The GMB and Unison, the two big unions still to jump, both decide on their recommendations today. I suspect the GMB will go for Peter Hain and Unison will decide to be neutral, but it could be the precise opposite, or something else. If one of them does go for Peter it should shift the odds.
Meanwhile, Peter took time out to help in the Beeston Central by-election this morning - I don’t give my support for nothing, y’know.
The voters are bemused by the inordinate attention they’re getting from both Labour and the Tories - as it’s the only by-election in the Greater Nottingham area, the Tories have mobilised teams of 10 canvassers a night, and my opponent is fully engaged on doorsteps, as am I - I’ve been out nearly every day for several hours this week. The Tories have gone for high-gloss leaflets with pictures of Cameron looking determined; we are focusing on the ‘MP-councillor partnership’ theme with more informal leaflets. The LibDems, UKIP and Greens seem AWOL in the ground war, though there are lots of LD leaflets. The big unknown is the impact of the tram, which will run through the ward - the Tories are locally virulently anti-tram (while nagging Ministers in Westminster for not being sufficiently pro-tram) and see it as an election-winner. Voting next Thursday - last time the Tories came a fairly close second, the time before the Greens did.
51/54/60. MEPs nominations:
Johnson 9
Benn 3
Cruddas 2
Harman 2
Hain 1
Blears 1
1 has not used his nomination
59. Jack, D Day is approaching and not all figures make sense yet
Anatole. Very eloquent as always! Reading about the Grammar school fiasco on ConHome after ten days away and hearing about Osborne’s ‘heir to Blair’ nonsense yesterday I started to wonder whether the whole “Rebranding the Tory Party” was just a public school jape! An ultimate Bullingdon club dare where he destroys the Conservative Party and then shouts ‘April Fool’!
(The other possibility is that he’s way out of his depth and really doesn’t know what he’s doing).
NEW POLL AND NEW THREAD - Labour move to 35% with Ipsos-Mori
64 Andrea. Oh gawd !!!
You’ll have to put your figures through the “Robert Maxwell Computer Model” !!
67 Does he not have a Title yet? Wasn’t it something to do with the Angle of Dangle amongst Rutland Conservatives?
Editor, I’m not sure the suggestion that Jack Straw was removed from the FCO at the behest of Condoleezza Rice is correct.
They had a strong relationship, both personally and professionally, which makes that difficult to believe.
It’s probably true that the White House was behind Straw’s ’surprise’ demotion, but it’s more plausible that ‘the word’ came from Richard Cheney, not Rice.
30. Amusing
20. I had to go to the link to work out what you meant by “swerves”. Why confuzzle people with gobbledegook?
Call me naive, but isn’t it possible that Jack Straw agreed to be campaign leader because he thought Gordon Brown should be leader and that unity would be good for the party? He may well have been promised something. But he might not have been.
If he has been, chancellor seems less likely because I’d have thought Brown would want an economist or someone from a very numerate spending department e.g. Transport or DWP.
How old is Jack Straw? Could he have been promised Gordon’s endorsement for the leader after Brown?
Could I suggest on a previous theme Jack Straw job in Brown’s Cabinet as the new head honcho if the Department takes on an identity of its own - as Secretary of State for Science? Science Fiction that might be as after all I’m reliably informed by my son he is featuring on the Doctor Who websites as one of the scary scarecrows in the two part episode running at present- as they are called “Jack Straws”! We sometimes refer to them as the Wicker Men but certainly although Jack’s been around a long time he’s not quite a Time Lord yet!!!