Could the exhaustive ballot favour a woman?
June 1st, 2007
Should you cover yourself on Harman/Blears?
Even though the latest YouGov Labour members poll on the deputy leadership battle closed on Monday there’s no sign yet of the findings being published. In any case the survey took place before Tuesday’s key televised hustings which might have had an impact.
Meanwhile I have been going back over the polling data that we do have to see if there are any further clues that might point to the winner. For, as many have been saying, each voter in each part of the electoral college will have the opportunity to express second and third choices and given the number of candidates this could be crucial.
Not many voters, surely, are going to ignore the gender issue completely when they make their first, second and third selections and, if so, who will be the beneficiary?
Tucked away in the detail of the March YouGov poll of Labour members and trade unionists was the above finding on the gender question. My reading of this is that a high proportion of voters will include either Harman or Blears in their choices and the transfers could have an impact on the overall result.
So which is it to be Harman - Gordon’s choice - or Hazel Blears who has been coming over very well at the hustings meetings? This is a hard call but my money will probably be on Harman.
All the signs are that Gordon desperately wants Harman to get it and his team is working very hard on her behalf. I should report that I am being lobbied ferociously.
So the 8.8/1 that is currently available on Harman looks like a good insurance bet.
Mike Smithson
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It works both ways. A lot of people might be put off voting for Harriet Harman, specifically because she has made an issue of being a woman per se. This might put people off voting for Blears as well. I suspect that for the vast majority of people it wouldn’t make a difference anyway.
I expect the final round will be Benn v. Cruddas.
19% think it’s vital to have a woman candidate in a field of six. So do I. But what percentage think it’s vital to actually elect a woman deputy leader?? Presumably it’s far lower.
Given the quality on offer in my opinion all 4 men are better. Harman’s too dreary and Blear’s lack of finesse can’t work in the south (where Brown needs to be most careful). I backed Johnson with a side bet on Benn. But what an opportunity for Johnson to cement his position with the Tories and poor Mr Willets in turmoil. So far he’s been disappointing vapid.
In fact they’re all pretty dismal come to think of it so yesterday’s article with Straw for DPM is beginning to make a lot of sense!
“All the signs are that Gordon desperately wants Harman to get it and his team is working very hard on her behalf. I should report that I am being lobbied ferociously”
By whom? To do what? To write favourable commentaries here? Do you have a vote?
re 3. I am being lobbied by members of the HH campaign team presumably because they feel that what is discussed here can be influential. We saw last year how the Huhne campaign saw the importance of betting odds as a way of changing views.
3/4: That’s probably the most interesting development in a while. But does this really mean that Gordon is behind it all, or just that the Harman campaign is well-organised?
As someone who has mysteriously not been lobbied by the HH campaign, I think she’s well down the pecking order in an admittedly close race.
So what price for Mike Smithson for next Chancellor should Harman make it?
4. The Blogs Rule.
Obviously it would be a great advantage to have a woman. It’s odd that the two most senior female members of the Cabinet didn’t choose to stand. HH has made herself a hostage to fortune after her performance on Newsnight. You could see what she was trying to do but suggesting government shoud cap David Beckham’s salary is a difficult one to argue. And I worry whether Hazel projects the right image. A great pity Oona king didn’t win her seat. She’d have been ideal.
3/4. Another indication of the growing importance of the site - well done Mike.
The question is: is that lobbying representative of Harman’s campaign as a whole? In particular, how will she do in the MPs’ section? She’s not starting from a particularly strong position in terms of nominations, but then none are - even Johnson. If Gordon can help her to pick up a lot of second places (especially among the weaker candidates - seconds to Johnson / Benn won’t be terribly useful as they probably won’t be counted until the last round, if at all), she could come through the field.
Trying to influence the members’ and unionists’ sections will be harder and probably not something that’s too easily done behind the scenes. Basically, she’ll have to walk the walk - win the votes by being among the best candidates. This to me seems only fair. After all, I’d have thought most Labour members would want the best person for the job, rather than just Brown’s choice.
On the gender question, it never ceases to surprise me how sexist and/or racist some left-wingers can be providing if fits with their notions of political correctness. I’ve no doubt that Harman and Blears will benefit from that attitude to some extent, though whether the votes will be that transferable between the two is a different matter.
To be quite honest, if Labour chose Harman as deputy leader, as a Tory I’d be delighted. She’d be as unsackable as Precott was, is not a particularly good minister, lacks the connection with the party that Prescott had and Cruddas aspires to and does little except provide a slightly dull backdrop against which Brown can shine that little bit brighter. Did Labour learn nothing from when Beckett was deputy leader? Actually, I think they probably did, and while Harman might poll that bit better because of her patron’s (unannounced) backing and her gender, she’ll still not win.
7. “A great pity Oona king didn’t win her seat. She’d have been ideal” - why? Her unparalelled understanding of and sympathy for public opinion?
PS Mike.”All the signs are that Gordon desperately wants Harman to get it and his team is working very hard on her behalf. I should report that I am being lobbied ferociously.”
I guess you mean you are being lobbied by Harman’s team not by Gordon’s on her behalf? So what makes you so sure that Harman is Gordon’s choice?
9. David. Young, very articulate, a woman and black and if she’d won her seat she’d very likely have been a senior minister or in the cabinet by now
Oh god I just don’t know WHAT to do with my DL vote. I can see good points about all the candidates. I want Cruddas to be made party chairman if he fails. I quite like Benn and Johnson has a great backstory and will play well in the south. Hain is trending left with Harman - too opportunistic perhaps - even though I agree with them. Blears is sparky and not the drone most thought. What shall I do? I need advice!
12. Reports from the Labour NEC suggest that Brown will abolish the chair’s post and move responsibilities to the new deputy leader.
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2007/5/19/131156/656
This means if you want Cruddas to run that chairman role then the only way is to vote for him as deputy leader.
4. Wow.
Brown can’t cope with the idea of a man as his deputy - too threatening. Gordon’s such a girl. Blair was a narcissist but at least he was a man.
10. “Young, very articulate, a woman and black”
So that’s one genuine quality and three pieces of discrimination. And Labour wonders why the BNP does well in some of its heartlands?
7. Rog, Oona King managed to lose one of the safest Labour seats in the country. Not sure she really has the golden touch. Who would your second vote go to….. Barbara Roache?
I hope all the lefties saying that the deputy should be a woman because they are under-represented blah blah… voted for Mrs Thatcher when they had the chance.
16 It depends what you think the function of a Deputy Leader/MP is. If you think they should represent the country as far as possible then all four become qualities. If you think only intelligence and articulacy is required then perhaps we should choose all our MP’s/deputy leaders from Oxbridge debating societies.
Why are they lobbying you ferociously Mike? I thought you were a Lib Dem
Lots of rumblings of discontent amongst the Lib Dems in London here over their candidate selection:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/gla-selection-results-855.html#comments
Ian. Though Maggie ticked the box of being ‘a woman’ which were seriously under represented in the Tory Party she also ticked the box of ‘right-wing swivelled-eyed loon’ which the Party were overflowing with at the time and which it’s taken twenty five years to partially get out of their system!
21 - I see the old bag is still milking the Falklands for all its worth.
re 4. I am being lobbied by members of all campaign teams presumably they feel I’ll use my influence in ensuring that Roger doesn’t endorse one of them as the likely winner !!
20 Rik ??. May we ask in future that Rik tags his contributions so we may determine whether they are from him - Rik W (Reading Consul) or from his horse - Rik W (Incitatus) ??
21. Only teasing Rog! But to be serious, I struggle to understand the obsession of some to select a person for a job because of their gender or the colour of their skin, and not on what they can offer.
I guess the argument put forward in this case is that a woman would attract more votes. (Actually I’m not sure that is true.) A better argument might be that Harman would be a good balance to Brown, and might actually make him look a bit more polished and articulate than he really is. Whereas Blears’ bouncy enthusiasm might re-enforce Brown’s dour image.
18
‘If you think only intelligence and articulacy is required then perhaps we should choose all our MP’s/deputy leaders from Oxbridge debating societies.’
No they tried that with Prescott and it didn’t work.
Jack, I found this picture of you trying to get into the Labour Party hustings
http://www.visitdunkeld.com/Latest%20Photos/Concealed%20Weapon%20250.jpg
Well-timed article Mike! After much deliberation Spaulding finally signed up for the Hattie campaign yesterday. David Herdson – you say “On the gender question, it never ceases to surprise me how sexist and/or racist some left-wingers can be providing if fits with their notions of political correctness.” But it’s nothing do with being lefty, it’s all to do with winning. Worcester Woman lives on (you polling enthusiasts invented her in the first place) and, come the next general election, her vote could make a difference. The next leader is going to be a man, and a man/woman team is more attractive than two men, especially when it’s a talented middle-class woman like Hattie. When I ask party colleagues “would you like us to go into the next general election led by two middle-aged blokes?” they think very hard, and sometimes they change their minds.
27 Roger. Touche !!
… Sadly I had nothing to declare and she agreed !! 
As always Planet Roger is off to an early start. Margaret Thatcher wins elections (three out of three), Oona King manages to lose a safe seat (and served in PArliament for eight years without a hint of office except from her own publicity machine)and yet….. well this is Roger, bright early and as batty as ever
Ian.I think the Cap’n has it right. It’s not just about equal representation-though that’s important-but more about giving an outward inclusive looking image. And these days nothing is quite as dull as a duo of white middle aged middle class males-well not when you could have say Kate Moss and Peter Tosh.
18. “It depends what you think the function of a Deputy Leader/MP is. If you think they should represent the country as far as possible then all four become qualities.”
Young black women do not make up a very large proportion of the country so how do those “qualities” make her “represent the country”?
The gender of Deputy is of course entirely irrelevant, as well articulated by AJ when he said (to paraphrase): “Yes, some people want a woman, but the operation is very costly and wouldn’t be completed in time”.
But then Labour (and Dave) are still struggling with the contradictions of “positive discrimination”, as well as exactly what this Deputy Leader / Deputy PM is for.
Talking of Labour confusion - does anyone have any idea what Gordo is actually doing during this 6/7 week gap?
‘All the signs are that Gordon desperately wants Harman to get it and his team is working very hard on her behalf.’
It’s probably a tactic by Brown to prolong the grammar school debate,Harman was vigorously against them when in opposition,then sent her son to a selective grammar school in Kent,some 10 miles from her constituency,anyone know what her policy is on them this week?
RedFlump - As it’s AV, you can express several opinions at once. The case for voting Hain first is simply that he’s the only candidate who has been consistently ‘inside left’ (arguing for a green/left tilt but accepting cabinet responsibility) for the last 10 years. I know them all, and you can take my word for it even if you disagree with the consequences or would prefer an ‘outside left’ (arguing for left-wing policies and never mind party unity) position.
If he’s eliminated, you can then express a further view with your 2nd preference, which could be Cruddas if you want to send a clear left-wing view or Harman or Blears if you want to promote gender balance or acknowledge Blears’ sparkiness or Harman’s southern appeal.
Then, given that most people probably expect a Johnson/Benn finale, you could help decide that with your third preference. It can all go wrong if the eliminations are in a different order, of course! (Yep, I haven’t given up hope…)
OT. The ever so umble Scottish First Minister decides he can ignore most Holyrood votes !!
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1440261.0.0.php
OT. Meanwhile the SNP decides to chuck the fertizer over Scottish farmers !
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=854642007
31. I agree up to a point Rog. It should be all about selecting the person who will give Labour the best chance of winning the next election. I remain to be convinced that the person must be a woman for that to be the case. For example, I can see a good argument for Cruddas to be selected as he could try and re-connect the party with the voters it has lost to the BNP. I don’t see Harman managing that trick. Anyway, there are plenty of women in the cabinet who can take a prominent public role if that is deemed important.
Perhaps this debate leads us to the question of what the role of deputy leader actually involves. Is it to be a DPM? Is it basically an internal Labour party role? Is it to make GB look good? The best person for the job may differ depending on what the role holder is expected to do.
36 Moi. “Fertizer…”
…. a new drink ?? … no I meant crap !!
OT. With grammar school friends like the “Daily Telegraph” who needs six of the best around the arse of a Conservative education policy :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/01/ngram101.xml
Thank you Nick Palmer - I may actually follow your advice! I agree that Peter has consistently been on the “inside left”. Remember when he flew the kite about higher taxation - only to be slapped down hard by Gordon?
Mike, thanks for the info. It shows just how backward a party the Labour party are that the gender of the candidates is important.
Of the 6 standing, 5 of them are standing for what they believe in and one appears to be standing because she is a woman. Just how vacuos is that?
41 - Just goes to show how backward the Tory party are that they don’t understand how important gender actually is to many people in this country. The old “ooh, it shouldn’t matter that we are all middle-class white men cos we represent everyone” is a load of old crap. And Labour are the old party to have had the guts to do anything about it. Laving the system to “chance” would mean that women (and others) were sidelined.
Re 5, Tpfkr, “As someone who has mysteriously not been lobbied by the HH campaign, I think she’s well down the pecking order in an admittedly close race.”
Re 42, Redflump, Don’t talk daft, we have done things like the A list, but no one on the A list is standing as “the female” or the “ethnic” candidate. Like Hazel Blears they are standing as the best for the job regardless. All credit to Hazel for that.
That someone can get elcted or indeed voted for purely because of their gender is daft.
As for the general voter, if they see a set of representatives who by chance or design are all from one group, then they may think that is odd, but I suspect many would find it odd if someone got elected soley on the basis of group.
41. “Mike, thanks for the info. It shows just how backward a party the Labour party are that the gender of the candidates is important.”
Like so many others at the moment Benedict you aren’t in agreement with the leadership of your party who thinks gender equality is very important.
44 - Yes, that A List worked wonders, didn’t it?
What shows how backward the Labour Party is is that in over 100 years not one of its women members has ever been credible leadership material… oh, silly me, intelligent women have got better things to do with their lives than run political parties…
If people were asked: “Should a person get a job solely on their abilities to do the job well, or should their gender / ethnicity / class be taken into consideration?” I think it’s pretty obvious what the results would show.
In fact the British Social Attitudes survey may ask such a question.
Of course there has been (or maybe still is) a problem in certain areas of people being favoured due to their gender being male and their ethnicity leading to them being perceived as “local”. This is wrong, and has arguably resulted in homogenous working environments (such as Westminster). Wrong-ing the wrong, naturally, does not make it right.
45 & 46 - I think it’s important that the Conservative party is more representative of the UK as a whole but I don’t see why that should preclude someone from criticising a politician who thinks they should win primarily on the issue of their gender.
37 - how is Cruddas particularly well placed to win back voters from the BNP? People are voting BNP because they support the view put forward by Margaret Hodge - and Cruddas was at the forefront of her critics on that.
CLPs supporting nominations in the Deputy Race close today
50 - Cruddas is seen (rightly or not) as a link to the white working-class communities who have traditionally voted Labour but who are now tempted either by the BNP or just stay at home.
Cameron has flunked it on grammar schools. I think this could be the start of the veneer cracking now.
He was right on the money with his original policy, and he should have faced down the rebels just like Blair did in the mid 90’s. But he has backed down, and this shows that the Tory party has not changed, and - most importantly - it shows that he would not be in total control of his party if elected PM.
The thing that made Blair so electable was the knowledge that he would always take on his opponents in the party, and that he would win. Cameron has shown that if he dares to take on his opponents in the party he will lose. The same was shown with pulling out of the EPP.
Cameron simply cannot deliver the Tory party to the country on matters of policy. This has been exposed now, and I cant see how he can turn it around in the public’s eye.
Re 52, Redflump, why? Do lots of them live in Notting hill?
50. I was making the point that depending on what role the deputy leader was expected to carry out, different candidates would be better suited to different roles. I can’t see Harman making much progress in attracting back the white working class Labour vote in places like Dagenham, Bradford, Oldham etc… But I can see Cruddas having the ability to engage with that section of society.
44 since the A list around 40% of candidates in winnables are women - and we did it without aws.
53 - It’s like they want to lose.
Does anyone know anything about this poll - I assume it is for the Telegraph?
Are they holding it for Sunday? As Mike rightly says the longer they hold it, the less value it has.
58 - The Telegraph can’t “hold” polls for Sunday. The Sunday Telegraph isn’t the same paper.
Some Tories close to Cameron (maybe even Cameron himself, who knows?) perhaps started to believe their own rhetoric regarding Gordon. How terrible he is, how anti-social, what an asset for the Tories he is next to a bright young thing like Dave. How he can barely even speak in public - practically a social retard.
Unfortunately this is far from the truth and as the polls are starting to improve for Labour, DC and his team are starting to make mistakes. Serious ones. I believe MBoy is correct in his analysis. Blair CHOSE Clause IV as the subject to show that he would defeat the left - and he won. Cameron blundered onto Grammer schools, and has effectively made a mess of the whole issue.
This is another instance of a so-called Tory policy unravelling under the slightest scrutiny - just like tax breaks for married couples.(another non-starter).
O/T up the thread a bit Oona King - I like her because I like her - regardless of the anti-discrimination brownie points. She was beaten by one of the most disreputable of modern politicians who was pandering to basest prejudice - Galloway.We can look back to Horatio Bottomley as his natural precursor.
King stood up to him, and the fact that she lost should be lamented - but her principled stand should be applauded. She is an honourable politician.
61 - at least two gains in 2009 for Labour - Bethnal Green and Blaenau Gwent.
61 - Agree. But she took one of the safest Labour seats in the country and lost it.
There are barely sentinent Labour MPs who have avoided doing that.
Oona King was undoubtedly a “nice person”. But she was a leadership-compliant MP with no achievements under her belt in 8 years. There is nothing honourable about going against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of your voters’ wishes.
When you get given a safe constituency like Bethnal Green to represent you know that you do not have free reign to simply vote as you wish all the time. You have to take their views into account - especially on a matter of such importance as war, where you may well be voting for the relatives of your voters to be killed.
So, she wasnt ministerial talent, she wasnt a popular constituency MP, she wasnt a wily scrutinising genius. She simply wasnt that good… No wonder Labour want her back!
Right - having got the King rant out of my system at 61 - because Galloway is such a charlatan it makes me so cross, back on topic.
Two things about the CLP electorate I know
1. They will favour women with their second or third votes.
2.The Left will like an “anti-establishment” candidate who appears “safe”
So Cruddas Blears and Harman I think will do well on the second and third preferences.
There is no genuine left candidate - Hain definitely does not count. Cruddas is not the real thing but his pitch will resonate well with the Left.
HH probably anoys fewer people - wrongly in my view
So Harman and Cruddas to compete with Benn - Johnson to seriously disappoint
1.Benn 2 Harman 3 Cruddas 4 Blears 5. Johnson 6 Hain
Personaly I am finding this contest really interesting as it is the best measure we have had for some years as to whether the labour membership has finally grown up and heeded the lessons of the Blair years rather than just seeing it as tactics to get into power. If they elect Cruddas, it means they have not learnt
“All the signs are that Gordon desperately wants Harman to get it and his team is working very hard on her behalf”
Does Brown really desperately wants Harman? Or are others assuming it because many of his allies (excluding Balls who is backing Johnson and a couple of Brownites who have not nominated anyone) are supporting her?
Gordon Brown’s CLP (well, the CLP of the seat he represents) didn’t nominate her. They went for Benn. I suppose he doesn’t interfere much with their nominations choice (IIRC they even nominated a CLGA candidate in NEC elections), but if he really wants her, he could have lobbied a bit his CLP to support her.
Do you ever wonder if King was undone by her race?
The difference between Cameron/Tories today and Blair/Labour in 1995 is that all parts of the party believed Blair could deliver victory in the next GE and so signed up to the programme. Additionally the concept of “New” Labour was actually part of a long slog mostly under Kinnock which developed a cohesive if minimal set of policies which everyone ridgidly stuck to. This may have produced various barbs in the press about control freakery etc but it did mean that the party presented a very united front. It helped also that Labour enjoyed a clear lead in the polls in the aftermath of Black Wednesday.
Cameron is trying to copy the Mandelson/Campbell strategy in different political circumstances when it is not clear that it is the right one. If the polls continue to run well for Labour and it is not clear there will be a Tory government there will be repeats of the Grammer school debacle as the right of the tory party agitate for their favoured policies over the “move to the centre ground” seemingly favoured by the Cameroonies. Whatever sort of PM Gordon Brown becomes he is likely to focus far more on Tory policies ( or lack of ) than a clearly distracted Blair has done for the past 18 months, again something that Cameron is going to struggle with as he tries to define those policies.
12 - Much the same thoughts, although I wish the DL contenders would spend their time lobbying me personally rather than pbc. Just to give people an insight into the thought processes of Labour activists, this is how I currently perceive the field. Blears came to knock doors in our election campaign, generally like her and what she has to say, people are arguing that she can’t win therefore don’t back her but it is a preference ballot so that doesn’t really matter. Johnson seems good but I am worried that he wants too cut the Union vote at conference. Benn is good but despite inviting him to speak on a number of occasions in the past he has never replied, yet you often see him speaking at non-Labour party events. Cruddas will be too oppositional to the leadership. Hain was a Liberal. Harman has banged on to much about being a woman and the South.
68 Exactly right - Kinnock did the hard miles, Smith consolidated and Blair took it on to win - the size of the win was his doing (helped by Major to a large extent)
The model is replicable though
I think Oona now considers Bush “more stupid than Mickey Mouse and more dangerous than Saddam Hussein”
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,1843593,00.html
70 John it is only replicable if the whole party signs up and it is far from clear that is true in the tory party today. It would have been completely unacceptable for all shades of opinion in the party for senior members of the party, including the leader, to carry on as the tories have for the past 16 days.
67 Do you mean Islamic anti-Semitism, John?
67: No, Oona was undone by voting for a war that probably 90% of her electorate was opposed to; which was additionally a war that was blatantly against Muslims, when her electorate was mostly Muslim. If she had voted against the war she would have won easily (and Galloway would have stood elsewhere anyway).
71: Yes, I’m sure she does consider that now - after all, she wants to be an MP again.
55. Anyone would think Cruddas had a monopoly on the white working class vote from some of the ridiculous comments on here. Erm - Blears and Johnson might qualify don’t you think?
Frankly Labour needs someone who is going to have crossover appeal and go down well with middle class voters in marginals too - the DL campaign has been disappointingly introspective.
Had our nomination meeting in Horsham for what it’s worth. The result was…
1. Cruddas
2. Benn
3. Johnson
Interesting discussion I thought.
74 I think she has put her name forwards for the Streatham nomination.
77 I should also add so have Stephen Twigg and Steve Reed, Labour leader of Lambeth Council
71. As mickey mouse is a cartoon does he have an IQ or any intelligence. Imean if she had used goofy or daffy duck as an example well she might have had a point
65 - John
Can you confirm whether that the DL candidates you have listed are in *your* order of preference or the order in which you expect them to finish?
Thanks
Re 76, Johnathan, please vote for Crudda, Please. Failing that Harman!
Re 76, Johnathan, please vote for Cruddas, Please. Failing that Harman!
75. JamesB, you may call my statement ridiculous if you wish, but please look at what I actually said before launching into comments like your one at 75. I used Cruddas as an example of someone who could appeal to a particular section of the electorate that I do not believe Harman can appeal to. I certainly do not believe he has, to use your words, ‘a monopoly on the working class vote’, I just used him as an example.
Personally, I couldn’t care less who wins.
80 Cruddas got the nomination, but overall the word on the street is that it’s still Benn’s to lose. But we’ll see.
81 Be caerful waht you wish for… On the face of it I understand where your coming from, but I have been really pleasantly surprised by Cruddas.
69: To be fair to Benn, he came to speak in Broxtowe last month even though he knows I’m supporting Hain. I suggest ringing his Parliamentary office (020-72193000, like all MPs) to find out what’s happened to your invitations.
74: MBoy, you seem to be arguing that she should have represented her constituents even if she thought they were wrong and it would cause greater suffering for Muslims and others to leave Saddam in place?
With respect, I don’t agree. I listened to the arguments from constituents on both sides as widely as possible and then decided what seemed to me right; I don’t think there is any other way that representative democracy can work. Yes, one then accepts that at election time constituents will in turn do what *they* think is right (I certainly lost votes over it in 2005), and maybe Oona lost because of that. But if so, and she could see it might happen in her constituency, it was pretty brave of her. MPs who vote against their beliefs because they think their constituents would like it should switch careers to become, say, marketing executives.
68- Very interesting. It almost looks as if some Tories have thought “oh we’ve been doing far too well. Very good local election results,ahead in the polls for a long time. Let’s go back to what we’re good at - disunity and a silly row about nothing. The BBC - who really love us- will make sure it gets maximum publicity”(and they have). There certainly seem to be problems with discipline and handling the media which compare very unfavourably with Nulab.
Peter My expectation as of today at 11.36
Benedict’s comments about Cruddas confirm my analysis. Rejecting Cruddas will be the grown up thing to do. However I remember my own initial attraction to the Bennite cause in the early 80’s was on the basis of the empowerment it offered (in theory at least). That is why I think he will run well.
86 - Perhaps Cameron is clever, wanting to make sure that grass-roots Tories don’t get complacent and stop leafleting etc.
Harman would be the worst possible choice for labour, she manages to rival Hewitt in the patronising stakes. As a foil to Brown cheery Blears would be much better and they will need someone who can rally the troops. Johnson looks like a safe pair of hands but his education cock up doesn’t bode well, neither does Benn’s poor performances so far. Cruddas would be interesting and, as much as I disagree with a lot of what he says he reminds me of what labour was like when I voted for them. Hain looks like a vain opportunist and that will be held against him.
Blears or Cruddas for me as the opposition would be more stretched by them, if I wanted an easy target I’d tell labour members to vote for Harman.
Re 84, Johnathan, “81 Be caerful waht you wish for… On the face of it I understand where your coming from, but I have been really pleasantly surprised by Cruddas.”
In which case, if he is any good, please please vote for Harman
87 Thanks John. I wasn’t being critical, just curious.
It surprised me you placed Johnson so low, since he was first in the PLP college and is unlikely to do very badly in the other two.
Last night I did some simplistic back of an envelope calculations, allocating points to each candidate according to where they finished in each contest (a la Eurovision Song Contest Scoring System). It gave me Johnson first and Cruddas second, ahead of a field so closely bunched you’d have to say anything could happen.
Re 87, John “I remember my own initial attraction to the Bennite cause in the early 80’s was on the basis of the empowerment it offered (in theory at least)”
That is the problem, it only worked in theory whereas the right to buy worked in practice.
I think there are quite a few objectives Labour and the Conservatives agree on what we disagree on is how to achieve those things.
54
It’s called the aspirational vote,bijou residence in Notting Hill Gate plus selective education for their kids.
re 91, Peter, “It gave me Johnson first and Cruddas second, ahead of a field so closely bunched you’d have to say anything could happen.”
Agree, anything could happen in my view bar Hain winning. If I had a vote and wanted the best for Labour I would probably vote for Blears, because she is irrepresably optomistic and she does cut through the ideological leftie cr*p when it comes to some important issues.
Benedict you are not comparing like with like. Benn offered the membership.
1. Elected leader
2. Reselected mp’s
3.Conference control over policy
These were deliverable, and I personally lament the passing of no 2 in the list
Emotionally, this is the area that Cruddas - in a different way - is addressing. How do you keep membership involved. It was only indirectly to do with the policy to the wider world.
53 - Cameron backing down is pretty disastrous for tory chances, he was starting to look as though he wanted to cut adrift the ranting right but maybe not.
The problem he now has it that, with the right that has lost the tories the past few elections, he cannot expect to get a majority next time (37% max I’d say), facing them down could get him a majority government with a more liberal stance however (40% or maybe a point or two more). By trying to accommodate the right his best chance of government is ironically with a lib dem coalition who would, of course, neuter the right’s policies! Good news for lib dems and a no win situation for the right, sounds good to me!
94 Anybody can do the same simple and instructive exercise, Benedict. You give 6pts to Johnson for coming first in the PLP section, 5pts to Harman and so on down to 1pt for Benn who came last. Then you do the same for the other two colleges on the evidence of figures to date. It’s a crude device but useful.
The most striking feature of the result is just how close it is. It would take very little to reshuffle the order. Johnson does emerge as clear winner and Hain as last but the distance from first to last is so small it could easily be bridged.
I have no idea who would be best for Labour. I know I like Harman least and somehow find it difficult to warm to Hain, for no good reason. The others would be equally acceptable to me. I’d probably vote for Blears, because she’s so cheerful but then a bit of skilful lobbying could easily make me change my mind.
Benedict White @ 92 — it worked electorally but in the longer term the shortage of social housing is one factor undermining communities and causing support for the BNP (as Cruddas and Hodge can agree).
Pete - I reckon at this stage its so close that Johnson could just easily be first and Benn fourth!
I am guilty of putting Hazel third partly because I like her.
I don’t know the viral impact of the good performances she has put in at the hustings
I reckon the snotty nosed southerners will go for the toff Harman as their token woman
Re 95, John, fair enough.
“I reckon the snotty nosed southerners will go for the toff Harman as their token woman”
Or maybe because Blears is an arch-Blairite?
WRT various points.
Cruddas wouldn’t win back Southern white working class voters, because he believes their concerns are purely economic. His proposed amnesty for illegal immigrants would only make matters worse for Labour.
It’s a mistake to assume that only right wing Conservatives were unhappy with Cameron over the grammar schools. Unhappiness existed across all wings of the Party. Grammar schools just aren’t a Clause 4 equivalent.
There’s no reason to assume that the Conservative Party gains support if the party leadership trash the brand. On the contrary, it just demoralises the Party and gives the impression of disunity to the public.
98 - Yes, housing is the new terrain. Gordon is astute here.
Re 98, John, The assumption that the right to buy causes a housing shortage is a little misguided.
The reason is this: In general people who move in to social housing are there for the long term and are fairly unlikely to move out, so the fact that you sell them their house takes one off the social housing requirement as well as one off the list of available housing. It does not change the number of people chasing houses which don’t exist much.
97. PtP. That’s an interesting approach to working out the likely winner. Where it works well is that each college is getting the same weighting. What it misses is the percentage support each candidate will get from each of the colleges. I think Cruddas is going to do very well from the ordinary members and pretty well from the Unions. Whether this will be enough to overhaul his weak PLP showing as predicted by Nick Palmer is a big question. I think it just might.
Crudites of the world unite!
98. Not really, seeing as it reduced the demand for housing by the same amount it reduced the supply. The current shortage would have occurred regardless.
102 - Given the Telegraph’s involvement and the Hitchens/Daly’s of this world the right are the ones who are overwhelmingly behind this. It’s a visible show of power and Cameron flunked it. Why should anyone switch to the tories if all they are is Cameron fronting the party that lost the last three elections?
103. “I will not let house prices get out of control.” - Gordon Brown, 1997. He didn’t actually do anything to stop a speculative bubble from inflating in the housing market though…
“I reckon the snotty nosed southerners will go for the toff Harman as their token woman.”
It’s good to see the Labourites continuing to fight all forms of prejudice!
105 ‘Crudites of the world unite!’
You have nothing to lose but your vinaigrette?
53,68 - Very interesting. I haven’t been following the news recently so had missed the latter developments of this muddle.
I have to say I’m very surprised. Cameron always struck me as someone who knew what he was doing. He seemed to have a clear message, along the lines of “no child left behind”, and was able to gloss over the contradiction of not pledging to abolish the remaining grammar schools by the fact that Labour haven’t tried to do that either.
Now he’s been caught comprimising (engaging reverse gear no less) with the right-wing of his party, for the benefit of a small minority. It doesn’t look good. However…
Maybe this is a “lucky Cameron” moment. Labour seem preoccupied with their deputy leadership contest. Blair is busy gladhanding in foreign countries, and Brown has disappeared to commune with his own navel. Cameron might get away with it this time.
101 Timothy (likes zebras). Are you related filially or philosphically to Rik W (likes horses) …. or indeed to Rik W (Incitatus) himself ??
110. LOL!
107 Why should anyone switch to the tories if all they are is Cameron fronting the party that lost the last three elections?”
The usual reason. They’re fed up with the government. I simply don’t buy the argument that there’s some great number of voters who’d vote Conservative if only the sort of people who currently vote Conservative were driven away from the Party.
OT. Despite knowing nothing about horses, i feel as an Epsom resident it is my duty to have a small punt on the Oaks and the Derby.
Any suggestions?
A minor point on the DL contest, fascinating though the whole process is to the political anoraks who contribute to this site, the contest is really a sideshow. Whoever wins is very unlikely to have any effect on how “middle class southerners”, “BNP inclined white working class” etc etc voters actually vote. Most of the candidates are likely to be senior members of the government in the run up to the GE and if for example Gordon Brown feels that having a high profile middle class woman ( sorry for the stereotype ) is important he could give a prominent role to Harriet Harman what ever the result of the ballot. John Prescott has been important electorally not because he has been deputy PM but because he has been a prominent member of the the team ( not meaning to start a discussion on the merits or otherwise of JP!).
The result has some importance for internal Labour Party politics but that is about as far as it goes.
Re 102, Sean the reaction I have picked up from the Conservatives I know is “whats the fuss all about?”
CLP nominations:
Benn 77
Cruddas 68
Harman 59
Johnson 44
Blears 36
Hain 23
114 - Lib dems can benefit from things like this. Not being the government is not enough when there are competing parties.
112 - The relation of mine who was in the RAF was called… Jack!
117. Most Conservatives I know do support grammar schools, but only on the basis that they believe in a meritocracy where the most able reach the top. When its explained to them Cameron wants academic selection within schools through extended use of setting, their concerns evaporate.
114. The idea that a party should keep on peddling the old views supported by a small minority of the population and hope to get back in power purely through disaffected voters is pure stupidity. That’s what the Communists did in Italy and it left them out in the cold for decades.
115 Caveman
The two favorites should win the Oaks and Derby but the prices are ridiculously low, so I won’t be betting. (I will be cheering though, as a great fan of Henry Cecil and Frankie Dettori.)
If you want a decent value bet and don’t mind taking a chance, you could try Measured Temper ew in the Oaks, available at 10/1.
For the Derby, try a forecast - Authorised to beat whichever of the Aidan O’Brien horses you most fancy.
Good luck!
Neither British Conservatives nor Italian Communists (between 1948 and 1990) are a “small minority” of the population.
Re 121, TJM, “Most Conservatives I know do support grammar schools, but only on the basis that they believe in a meritocracy where the most able reach the top. When its explained to them Cameron wants academic selection within schools through extended use of setting, their concerns evaporate.”
I agree, so do those I have spoken to hence the “what is all the fuss about?” sentiment. In fact I also penned this:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/06/great-grammar-school-storm-in-teacup.html
121.”That’s what the Communists did in Italy”
They couldn’t radical change what they believed in just to get a couple of cabinet positions either…
117 Benedict. The “fuss” is double edged and potentially one of those significant moments in an oppositions passage from no hopers to government in waiting.
Firstly this totemic Conservative issue of grammar schools has been handled by the Tories with all the finesse of the “Big Brother Grope-a-Thon”. Of itself these problems come and go.
However, secondly and more importantly as Cameron and Osbourne attempt to position themselves as the heirs to Blair with knobs on amongst the punters, then this debacle will have said punters asking why change the organ grinder for the dyslexic monkey. The voters may just end up not giving a monkeys for the NuTories if they can’t organize the tins of fizz in the tuck shop !!
115. Caveman. It would be great to see Henry Cecil win the Oaks today and he has 2 serious horses running including the favourite. I’ve not studied the Derby yet. The favourite Authorised is very short but will take all the beating. I will probably back Archipenko each way as he is trained by Aidan O’Brien who has a tremendous record in the race and the horse won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time out which has been a very successful Derby trial in recent years. Best price at present 10/1 with Coral.
You could use one of your free bets if you’ve got one in the locker. Good luck!
120 Timothy (likes zebras). Jack(ass) me !!
118 Thanks for the update, Andrea.
Cruddas is hanging on in there, I see. Harman seems to have made a little progress too.
These CLP declarations strike me as similar to the kind of informal poll that appeared after the Newsnight programme. You can’t take them too seriously but you wouldn’t want to dismiss them entirely either.
This is apparently Benn’s best college. We know what he scored in the PLP and the Union college won’t be good for him. In order to justify favoritism in the betting market, I would have expected to see him miles clear in the CLP college. His lead is useful, but no more than that.
His price on Betfair (2.5) continues to baffle me.
Re 126, JackW, on the issue of “heirs to Blair” I wrote this:http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/05/damascene-conversion-of-conservative.html
In short we agree with Blair where he is agreeing with Conservative economic policy and where he is bringing back Conservative public service reforms. We would be daft not to.
115 Caveman (re 127 St.John)
There’s your forecast! Authorised to beat Archipenko.
Although I love opposing short-priced favorites, I wouldn’t be taking on Authorised. He’s a beautifully balanced horse and Epsom should present no difficulties. Also, he’s one of the few in the race who is bred to stay. The soft going won’t be a problem either.
Benedict - is your “storm in a teacup” argument aimed at people within the Tory party who are resigning over / criticising Two Brains’ announcement, or the ensuing talk in the media / blogs about it?
re 132, Julian, More at people in the party, but both really.
The Conservatives really have made a terrible balls-up of the grammar schools issue. The Labour position is clear - no more grammars, but leave the small number of existing schools in place. This policy may be unpopular with the Left, but it’s clear. Now that Mr Grieve has pronounced that there could be MORE grammars, and Dave, his supposed leader, has (as it were) followed him, Conservative education policy is as clear as mud. That’s why David Dimbleby persistently questioned the Conservative MP on Question Time last night, and why these questions will go on, and on and on.
129. Peter, deadline for CLPs nominations have expired. Labour website had a further update since my comment and they now have Harman at 60 (the rest at the same figures I provided at 118).
Peter Hain got NUM (National Union of Mineworks) nomination
127, 131. Thanks for the tips. I’ll let you know how I get on.
FWIW I noticed my garden has dried up nicely this last day or so (I’ve got the builders in!) and I’ve just read that this might suit Four Sins well for the Oaks this afternoon. Worth an each way bet?
Andrea
I (or rather excel) counts:
Hilary Benn (76)
Jon Cruddas (68)
Harriet Harman (60)
Alan Johnson (44)
Hazel Blears (36)
Peter Hain (23)
Do you think the first update mistakenly gave one of Harman’s to Benn’s?
Re: 127, 131 & 136: I’ve backed LUCARNO e/w for the Derby. I was very taken with his win at Newmarket last weekend. I’ve also had a little on YELLOWSTONE e/w at a big price because he ran better than his final placing in the 2000 Guineas and this trip will help.
133. Ok - I’d find it strange it if was aimed at the latter.
Graham Brady has resigned. Dominic Grieve has spoken off-Line. No doubt dark-corner briefings to hacks have taken place in Westminster.
There is clearly discontent - you admit so by addressing the “people in the party” causing the storm.
Sean Fear notes that “Unhappiness existed across all wings of the Party” regarding the grammar schools announcement.
To accuse the wider media / blog world of inventing all this would be positively Campbell-esque.
137. pregethwr. Using Excell, I still have 77 CLPs for Benn…where’s the mistake?
135 Thanks Andrea (and presgwthr)
Harman’s done well, hasn’t she. She’s the only one in the top three in the first two colleges but I suspect her weakness in the Union college will decide against her.
She may of course do well on transfers, especially if Blears is eliminated ahead of her, as now seems likely.
Mike S might be right. Wouldn’t be the first time.
If I’ve time tonight (whilst watching Ugly Betty), I can look at some stats on what type of CLPs nominate who (for ex having lots of CLPs from seats where Lab has few votes and I suppose few members or having many CLPs from strong Lab areas…)
For me as a Labour party member, it’s anyone but Cruddas. As a signitory to the letter to last Saturday’s Guardian supporting Chaves’ disenfanchising one of the major Venezualian TV stations, he is absolutely beyond the pale - has the left learnt nothing from its flirtation with Stalin?
Re 139, JulianH, fair enough. I just think the people who are so concerned about the policy should try reading it.
139 - Sadly, Julian (to whom I owe an e-mail) is correct. Whatever the merits of the original statement/policy - and there were several - the ‘clarification’ has entirely negated the positive aspects, and revived all those death-wish notions of divisions and incoherence. Bloody fools!
OT. Obama running a different race :
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1627031,00.html
…………….
145 John O. Fear not dear Sir …. I still hold out some hope the Tories may retain Beaconsfield !
“Marketing Executives” 85 Have you just given away TB’s retirement plan.
146 -
…And Hersham, whose governance by an Enlightenment of the truest blue Benevolence is a model to humankind.
Peter.
Benn has underperformed in CLP nominations- I tend to agree. However he might have piled up actual votes within the nominations. We just don’t know.
It is extraordinarily unusual to have a modern election with so little track record and information, plus a complicated electoral college to obfuscate further.That is why I’m finding it very interesting. The nuances between the candidates may seem trivial, but playing forward they are very important.The last thing they need is an ideological war - that applies to the country too. It is a proxy campaign for the leadership
If Benn, Cruddas, Johnson or Harman win it would be very easy to post rationalise. Not HB or PH - they would both be shocks.
146. Jack W. I hope your health is bearing up.
How do you feel Obama is doing? The betting market has stalled somewhat. Do you think he can win the presidency?
148 John O. Ok … Hersham too …. after a recount or three !!