Could Thompson soon be the front-runner in the GOP race?
June 12th, 2007-
But will he stand up to the scrutiny that being favourite will bring?
The latest polls on the race for next year’s Republican nomination show that the attorney, turned movie star, turned politician, Fred Thompson, has been making even more progress against front-runner, Rudy Giuliani.
Even though he is waiting until July 4th before making a declaration Rasmussen has him polling at 24% - exactly the same as Giuliani. Another poll, LA Times-Bloomberg, has Thompson moving up by six full points and is only 7% adrift.
This is having an impact on the betting with the Dublin-based but US focussed, Intrade betting exchange now making Thompson the firm favourite.
In the UK the Betfair market has Giuliani at 5/2 and Thompson at 2.7/1.
Although I backed him a month or so ago and now stand to make a fair profit I am still not convinced that he is the man the party will go for. His poll ratings might just reflect the novelty of somebody new in the race and all the media attention he is getting. But hey - this is American politics and I’m not getting out of my spread-bet yet.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6746017.stm
1. “The building houses the campaign office of Labour deputy leadership contender Hazel Blears.”
The Lord moves in mysterious ways….
I’m wary of this talk of explosion. If something collapses internally you can bet the sound will be an almighty bang. We can only wait and see wat the circumstances are.
On topic, as a beneficiary of Mr Law & Order’s phoney war I think his position in the markert is interesting. In think it’ll go one of two ways:
a) he gets massove momentum and storms through in style
b) when he gets into the detail of debate he will be put firmly behind whoever is the Republican front runner, at this stage Guiliani.
I’m sure he’ll be the front runner for a while, just reflecting his greater media exposure. But that’ll be a good time to buy some of the other candidates at lower prices.
FWIW, there is even less interest than usual in politics in the US at the moment - the weather’s nice, Paris is in prison, the Sopranos are over and every week some talk show host or other causes a kerfuffle by saying something off-colour. So I wouldn’t take much notice of the polls until after Labor Day.
It’ll be interesting to see how the other GOP campaigns adjust to Thompson. I’d be inclined to buy Rudi and Romney (especially) on any more Thompson fever. Romney’s got a lot of money to burn and is the only candidate who seems to be advertising at the moment. (OK, that may be a silly thing to do if nobody but me is watching CNN or Fox at the moment. But it suggests that Romney is going to have to unleash his spending early in order to gain momentum, and surely some of that money will translate into opinion poll points).
5. Will Romney get it. I mean how widespread is ant mormon prejudice in the US. I suspect quite a few of the GOP base will be afflicted. So long as the other Candidates haad flaws, ege Guiliani pro choice. McCain “Falwell is an agent of intolerance,” then maybe. But Thompson just seems to tick all the boxes, and if he’s not into detail so what Reagan makes him look a Professor.
6. The power of momentum is always crucial in the primary race, but will be especially so this time with the schedule being so front loaded. Whoever performs well in Iowa, New Hampshire and the others in the first few weeks will probably be unassailable - if someone can outperform the rest. Romney’s religion, McCain’s age, Giuliani’s marriages (and policies) and Thompson’s inexperience will become secondary to the fact that one looks like a winner and the rest don’t.
But all that does depend on peaking at the right time. Subject to something going very wrong, Thompson is likely to hit a peak when he formally declares in July, and that could well put him in the lead. It’s a long time from then through to Iowa and that’s time for the more seasoned politicians to hit back. To get the nomination, he’ll probably need to peak again in six months time as I don’t think a long campaign would suit him.
It remains a very open race and there’s still time for another candidate to break into the top four. Possibly the best question to ask at the moment is ‘what are the chances of each candidate self-destructing’, which seems the most likely way of whittling the field down as things stand.
Seems the PC/Labour coalition is back on. I think that’ll put Aberconwy, CW&SP and Cereedigion out of reach.
Not sure about that Punter. Although I am a “rainbow warrier” a deal with Labour would make Aberconwy more winnable as we can run a fairly credible “we can beat the tories” to win over Labour voters. I think it would make ceredigion a little harder and Ynys Mon a bit harder.
The rainbow would be the better long term option as we would be the dominant party(the LDs would back us on almost every issue) and the Tories would have to adapt to us as they already have to an extent. The red green option makes us look weak and makes us the junior party but more likely to help in Aberconwy than hinder.
Also I think the party now wants the rainbow and the left may get a surprise at the national Council.
Barak ahead by a whisker( 51 to 49) in the vote for the leadership of the Israeli Labour Party according to an exit poll. I had a feeling that he was in favour of withdrawing support from the current PM but I’m not sure. Anyone have an idea what a Barak victory might mean?
Punter, I’m not arguing that Romney’s going to win - just suggesting a trading opportunity. At this stage opinion poll numbers are a function of media exposure, which in turn is influenced in part by campaign spending. Romney’s numbers will get hit further by Thompson’s launch publicity - I’m just suggesting that he has the funds to subsequently claw back a few points.
One could make the same argument, on a bigger scale, for Rudi. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Rudi’s numbers might tailspin once he loses his front-runner status. Rudi’s prospects are just too volatile to justify heavy unhedged betting.
The Mormon thing might put off a few of the most doctrinaire religious voters, but most church-goers are more moderate than that: abortion (Rudi’s ball-and-chain) is a far more emotive topic for them.
You could be right about Thompson ticking the right boxes - but arguably so did Kerry and Dole.
I got 8 on Thompson and 6.4 on Romney in early April, so I’m pretty pleased with this news.
McCain and Guilliani just don’t work for the GOP and I can’t see either getting the nomination, so an ‘outsider’ was always going to emerge.
Looking at the Republican field, you have got to be worried at the moment if you are Senator McCain. On the political front, if he is going to win, realistically he is going to have to win in New Hampshire and probably South Carolina of the early voting states. But winning NH as he did in 2000 is going to be very difficult. For one less independents are likely to vote in the Republican Primary than last time (which is where he draws his best support from) and two he faces two politicians who arguably have a much stronger pull in New Hampshire, in Romney ex-Governor of neighbouring Massachusetess and in Giulain ex-Mayor of New York unlike last time when there were no credible North Eastern Republicans in the race. As for South Carolina if the Fred Thompson bid is serious, you would have to make him a putative favourite there.
Further to this, McCain is suffering on his two flagship policies, the Surge in Iraq and Immigration, each of which must hit his potential support amongst the Republican base. It is too early to count him out like Kerry last time, but politially he is in a weak position.
As for Giuliani, his strategy seems to be based on winning in Florida and then sweeping up on Super Tuesday. The problem is that strategy is highly risky, considering the way Primary politics is heavily based on momentum you build up from early wins. He is going to need to target one of the early states heavily (New Hampshire would be my bet) in order to keep the momentum for his late run when his name and money should help him out.
As for Romney, I think he is actually in the best position of all the candidates potentially. While his movement in the polls is undoubtedely partly based on his spending, you have to be impressed by his early leads in Iowa, where he has basically forced the field to concede Ames and arguably victory in the Caucuses and New Hampshire where his reputation from neighbouring Mass is helping him to a decent lead. Wins in the first two states would surely set him up with huge momentum for South Carolina and Super Tuesday where the immense amount of money he will able to spend can kick in.
9. In a rural seat I think not. I think Labour are a poisoned chalice right now.We saw the anti Labour vote coalesce in many places, Newport Cardiff, Llanelli behind the best placed opponent. In Caerphilly only Ron stopped you. I think there’s a danger that vote will go elsewhere. The Lib Council Leaders thought so which is why they torpedoed the Rhodri/MG deal. If this happens I know gve Mark Williams 50-50 chance as opposed to previous 60-40 Plaid gain.
I’ve been out today, they let me out of the home sometimes. I’ve just seen this on Iain Dale
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2007/party-leaders.shtml
Has it been featured on this site?
Looks like Brown and Cameron are now equally mistrusted. So could be the first time in political history, that both party leaders will actually lose the next GE.
14.”think Labour are a poisoned chalice right now.We saw the anti Labour vote coalesce in many places, Newport Cardiff, Llanelli behind the best placed opponent”
In Cardiff all main opposition parties were up in both West and South. In Llanelli the good Plaid result was due by Lab to PC switchers too, not just the squeeze of LDs (who selected at the last minute to replace the previous candidate. The tories were up in Llanelli).
In Newport West Con, Plaid and LDs were all up, not just the second placed tories.
9 I also smell a trap for PC. If I’m right this has to go past Welsh Lab MPs right. Want a bet a quarum clause finds its way in for the refer. By that time the next WA elections could be looming and knifing you in the back then would make sense strategically
16. I think Cardiff South the Tory incrase was minimal, the Lib Dem presence was non existent only a few years back. In Newp West the Tory incrase still dwarfed others, likewise Lib Dems in East. Yes I know Llanelli Lab-PC, but still think it suppports me. In Swan West IIRC the Lib Dems firmly saw off the notion of any PC challenge to them as the main anti Labour threat
To me the strong perfomance of 2nders even in neigghbouring seats like Gower and Swan West augurs something
Tories were up 1.8% in Cardiff Sth…not massive but not minimal either and no signs of the tactical voting for the Lib Dems that was suggested might happen.
O/T: If we can leave aside for a moment our differing views on Tony Blair, I think this speech is genuinely of all-party interest:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1922074.ece
John Major made similar points more briefly in his autobiography. People who believe in their ideas should rarely be afraid of facts, and we are all equally at risk from media hyberbole.
The speech is longer on diagnosis than cure, but the point that there is a neglected market for judicious discussion is borne out by this forum, where we support each other against the Creatures of the Night and try to talk across our prejudices and preconceptions. People who believe in their ideas should rarely be afraid of facts, and we are all equally at risk from media hyberbole. Perhaps this sort of dscussion on pb.com in our better moments is a future trend?
10: Barak was the candidate least in favour of withdrawal from the coalition.
I don’t know a lot about Welsh politics but why would ambitious PC AMs be Labour’s lapdogs when they could be running the show? it might take a few months but I think there’ll be a rainbow over Cardiff - carries risks for Plaid, but surely better to get your hands on the levers of power and prove to people you can really do it than bottle it at the last minute.
For the tories of course it’s part of the detoxification process and the LDs don’t want to miss out or be cast as Labour’s reliable sure thing, to be used when all the more attractive options have said no.
20. ‘John Major made similar points more briefly in his autobiography’
Hardly an endorsement methinks - indeed it’s rather pathetic that Blair should resort to the same kind of sullen whingeing as his predecessor.
19. I think that was due to the very very strong Tory candidate former Welsh Woman of the year no less, and the fact the Lib Dems have no Local Govt base, in the non Cardiff bits where 99% of the Tory vote resides. Had the Tories fielded a weaker candidate and the Lib Dems a stronger one, bizarrely opting for a Student we could well have seen more of this occurring
22. The pundits are saying the Tories are winners in any scenario now. Rainbow they’re in power, detox complete. Lab/PC, they will get the benefit of the anti Labour vote with a few Lib Dem exceptions portray PC as Labour lackeys in rural seats Aberconwy & CW & PS, and still get the profile of being lead opposition. They played their cards very very shrewdly
I certainly hope Thompson will soon be the frontrunner in the GOP race. It will enable me to go green on all four leading candidates
On Plaid - I certainly hope they jump into bed with Labour.
26. They’ll be drinking the hemlock your party stopped MG drinking
20 Nick. I think I can wholeheartedly agree in the part of Tony Blair’s speech where he observes:”…the often extraordinarily brutal treatment meted out to Gladstone…”
18.”In Newp West the Tory incrase still dwarfed others, likewise Lib Dems in East. Yes I know Llanelli Lab-PC, but still think it suppports me”
I don’t think it fully does. You said “We saw the anti Labour vote coalesce in many places”, but it’s pretty much predictable that people tend to switch to parties campaigning hard in that seat compared to parties at 10% not doing much (or at least less than the other opposition party). So it’s normal IMO to see a biggest increase for the tories in NW or for Plaid in L than the others parties in those seats. It wasn’t a situation where third and fourth placed parties collpased to rally behind the second placed party
18. “To me the strong perfomance of 2nders even in neigghbouring seats like Gower and Swan West augurs something”
In Swansea there wasn’t a strong performance of 2nders. Plaid was second in 2003 and it ended up in 4th place
25 they do seem to have shown themselves to be effective operators and I would expect this to be reflected in future elections.
Glyn Davies must think the momentum can be maintained as it’s going to take something special in tory fortunes to depose Lembit at the GE.
29. No escaping you is there. Re Swan West I was taking my cue from the 2005 GE. Re Newp East Figs.
30. TBH He might as well. He can always return to the Assembly in 2011. For him to succeed Lembit would have to get ever more outlandish, and were that to happen I suspect his local Party would move in first and move out Glyn Davies’s chances.
BTW Is TB a Roman poisoning GB’s well before he leaves. Describing the media as feral beasts is hardly likely to endear them to Labour
An unexpected eulogy for Mrs T from Mr Jackie Ashley, sorry Andrew Marr:
“She left Britain richer, stronger and more self confident. We are not Wilson’s children, Blair’s children, John’s Major’s children or Callaghan’s children. We are all Thatcher’s children, whether we like it ot not.”
Quite so. Maggie changed the country. Blair tinkered. And then invaded Iraq.
31. “No escaping you is there”
it sounds as it’s what you want/hope for…
SeanT It was an excellent programme, I thought, presented with characteristic energy by Andrew Marr. One point which is worth remembering; Thatcher was against ending the first Gulf War as quickly; she wanted to get rid of Hussain but was of course out of power by then. I haven’t any chapter and verse but I would be very surprised if she was against the second Gulf War although one could argue that she might have had a greater impact on avoiding the post war disasters. In truth we’ll never know.
32. He probably won’t get supper tonight. But he may get the leftovers for describing Maggie lack mention North Sea Oil in her memors as “shameful.”
33. Right beat your 5 minute best 2003 & 2007 New east % Changes.
34. Yes, much as I would love to revile Andrew Marr as an unreconstituted pinko, and his programme as evidence of the Beeb’s liberal-left bias (which I do believe exists) - this series has been a model of watchable documentary TV. Lively, personable, enlightened and witty.
And very fair on Maggie, when you might have expected him to put the boot in.
Hmp.
34. Whether she could have altered the internal dynamics of the Bush Senior Whitehouse is moot. Let’s remember Cheney! backed the decision not to go out all the way. As for the latter who knows because of the millions of things and all decisions she would have been part of before that and could have altered everything
35. Lab -12.5%
LD +11.5%
Con -1.7%
Plaid -0.6%
Ind +6.8%
ED +2.2%
It was probably the best LD result of the night and they confirmed the 2005 GE advance (9.6% swing at that time). The swing this time was greater than the 2005 GE one which can suggest that Labour position is still eroding. That’s exactly one of the seats where the “Punter” rules can apply. If there’s a consistent drop in Con % in 2009/10 (I don’t mean 2/3% but something bigger), LD would be able to take it with a reasonable (and achievable) amount of Lab to LD switchers.
34.Didn’t Norman Tebbit say the 2nd Iraq war was a mistake and in fact described it as not being “a conservative war”? I don’t think that she would have invaded a country on the level of evidence put in front of Blair, or would have allowed herself to be blindly led because she had a special relationship with an American President who was going to go invade already with or without the UN backing or the need for evidence of WMD.
38. Tut tut 9 minutes. Must get back in training!
It certainly was their best result. How does the GE picture look any chance of momentum spilling over, not win but to bring t on the radar. IIRC they had a good swing in 2005
Punter I was just trying to comment on Sean T’s comparison with Blair. As far as Saddam Hussein is concerned she was at least as hawkish as Blair. I’ve no idea whether she would have prevailed on G Bush senior( quite possibly not) but she would have argued for continuing. I do think she might have at least got a ban on the use of helicopters by Hussein( fixed wing aircraft were banned) which ensured the defeat of the Shia uprising. My point about the second Gulf War is even more speculative, I agree.
BB 07 - what a pile of shyte!
Bring back Emily - I’m sure she didn’t mean that nasty word!!
40 They passed the tories in 2005 and they have certainly established themself as the main opposition there now. I suppose there’ll be gains at local level too next year. They can certainly advance again next time, the question is by how much they can advance (Lab majority is around 21% at GE level)
and yes, I’m not in full force, so I’m slow!
41. Vastly different eras. In 1990 Blair certainly wasn’t as hawkish as her or Cheney for that matter!
As for the 2nd I bet she would have insisted on finishing Afghanistan first, and finishing it properly. But that is another one we shall never know
43. Well I think they’ll do at least well in swing terms as 2005. Labour in Newport have a problem the Tories aren’t going to hold up the Lib Dems in east anyore than the Lib Dems the Tories in west, but Labour have to be everywhere, interesting
Punter I was simply disputing Sean T’s implication that Maggie did wonderful things whilst Blair brought us the Iraq war. Read his post please! She is clearly on record supporting the second Iraq war; as Simon Jenkins points out today she was pushing Blair on the issue strongly urging him to back Bush so you’re wrong about Afghanistan. There is a controversy about alleged remarks she made after the event in 1985 ( see internet) but she was 100% behind the decision to go to war.
45. Do you think there’ll be another 10% swing?
Mind I’ll recall your prediction
47. Probably not. But I would not be surprised. I think the Tory vote could well melt like snow, as every last one of them campaigns for Paul Flynn’s scalp. That said Lab hold naturally
46. I’m sure you’re right, I’m sure Maggie supported the Iraq war for, well, the same reasons I did - an instinctive Atlanticism, a hatred of Saddam, a disdain for Franco-German realpolitiking, and a sense that anything opposed by the mealy-mouthed muesli-eating liberal-left Guardianista do-gooder dickwads must surely be right.
How wrong we were.
However I don’t think Maggie would have lied about the war the way Blair did. She wouldn’t have spun her way to a dubious Commons victory and then tried to change the reasons for going to war after the event.
The difference between Blair is indeed this: that he is a liar and she isn’t. She may have been a crazed loon by the end, but I don’t think she was ever a liar, at least not habitually, like Blair and NuLabour.
34. The outcome might have been a lot better, if they had removed Saddam at the end of the 1st Iraq War. It seems strange now but it had the support of many Arab countries(some of whom), who even sent to troops) and it is likely that there could have been a far smoother transition.
48. I wouldn’t be either as it’s an area where LDs seem to still doing strong (so I would be less surprised by a LD gain here than in your beloved Cardiff South)
The WA results were quite interesting. After them, seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South looks more promising for the tories as outside bets than Delyn and Bridgend
50 I think at least Bush should have stopped Hussein using helicopter gunships to smash the Shias since they had been encouraged to rise up. In addition he could have cut off and disarmed those Republican Guard divisions which were isolated from Baghdad. In other words there was no need to go to Baghdad in order to cause Hussein’s downfall. However, Powell, Bush and Cheney were casualty averse and I suspect there was concern in the White House about Iranian domination of Iraq post Hussein’s downfall.
49.I remember an MP, it was Ming Campbell I think that praised the Conservative government for being so open and allowing complete access to all relevant documents (including top secret) during the enquiry by a group of MP’s following the Falklands war.
51. Absolutely not. I am predicting Lib Dem progress not gain. I’d be very surprised if that were to occur. As for Cardiff to be fair I’d been consistent in saying Cardiff West for them. But their not good showing in May made me re-evaluate, even if there was a Rhodri personal following
BTW Delyn et al you mean at GE or WA
54. I’m predicting LD progress too and if the tories collapsed there, it can be a gain…do we agree on this one?
I meant for GE…actually I meant that all those seats are between 14% and 19% majorities at Westminster level, so not easy gains for the tories unless they’re on course for comfortable overall majority. After WA elections, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South looks more promising than Delyn and Bridgend
Swing in WA elections last month:
Gower 9.8%
VoC 7.4%
CS 6%
Delyn 3.7%
Bridgend: 0.7%