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Could Thompson soon be the front-runner in the GOP race?

June 12th, 2007

    But will he stand up to the scrutiny that being favourite will bring?

The latest polls on the race for next year’s Republican nomination show that the attorney, turned movie star, turned politician, Fred Thompson, has been making even more progress against front-runner, Rudy Giuliani.

Even though he is waiting until July 4th before making a declaration Rasmussen has him polling at 24% – exactly the same as Giuliani. Another poll, LA Times-Bloomberg, has Thompson moving up by six full points and is only 7% adrift.

This is having an impact on the betting with the Dublin-based but US focussed, Intrade betting exchange now making Thompson the firm favourite.

In the UK the Betfair market has Giuliani at 5/2 and Thompson at 2.7/1.

Although I backed him a month or so ago and now stand to make a fair profit I am still not convinced that he is the man the party will go for. His poll ratings might just reflect the novelty of somebody new in the race and all the media attention he is getting. But hey – this is American politics and I’m not getting out of my spread-bet yet.

Mike Smithson






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