The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition
June 20th, 2007Part 1
For each of the six candidates, predict their overall percentage share of the first preference votes to one decimal place (ie for all three sections of the electoral college combined – do not make a prediction for the three individual components).
To assist in running the competition, please make your predictions in the following order:
• Hilary Benn
• Hazel Blears
• John Cruddas
• Peter Hain
• Harriet Harman
• Alan Johnson
Part 2
Select one candidate that you think will be the new Deputy Leader and predict their final vote share to one decimal place (ie their overall score for the whole electoral college).
Scoring
In part 1, your score for each candidate is the difference between your prediction and the actual result. In part 2, your score is the difference between your predicted vote share for the winner and the actual vote share for the winner. However, if you have not correctly predicted the winning candidate, a 15-point penalty will be added to your score, and if your predicted winner finishes outside the top two, this is increased to a 20-point penalty.
The player with the lowest overall score for Parts 1 & 2 combined will win the competition. In the event of any dispute, the competition organiser’s decision is final.
Entries close at 5pm Thursday.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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Benn 20.4
Blears 10.3
Cruddas 17.3
Hain 13.6
Harman 13.7
Johnson 24.7
Winner: Johnson - 51.5
Part 1.
Benn 18.0%
Blears 9.0%
Cruddas 22.0%
Hain 12.0%
Harman 15.0%
Johnson 24.0%
Part 2 Johnson 58%.
Part 1:
Benn 17.0%
Blears 24.2%
Cruddas 16.4%
Hain 5.8%
Harman 15.5%
Johnson 21.1%
Part 2:
Johnson 59.6%
Part 1:
Benn 19.0%
Blears 12.2%
Cruddas 18.4%
Hain 13.8%
Harman 15.5%
Johnson 21.1%
Part 2:
Johnson 54.6%
Benn 19.8
Blears 15.5
Cruddas 14.7
Hain 5.5
Harman 23.2
Johnson 21.3
Winner: Harman - 53.9
Benn 17.0
Blears 12.9
Cruddas 20.1
Hain 10.8
Harman 13.8
Johnson 25.4
Winner: Johnson 53:4
Well, I don’t fully understand the question but here goes:
Hilary Benn 20.0
Hazel Blears 12.5
John Cruddas 15.0
Peter Hain 7.5
Harriet Harman 25.0
Alan Johnson 20.0
Winner: Blears 51.5
Round 1 Total
Benn 20.9
Blears 13.3
Cruddas 19.2
Hain 13.0
Harman 13.9
Johnson 25.2
Winner: Johnson 51.8%
Benn 22.0
Blears 9.0
Cruddas 24.0
Hain 8.1
Harman 12.5
Johnson 23.0
Cruddas - 50.1
Benn 17
Blears 13
Cruddas 18
Hain 10
Harman 20
Johnson 22
Benn 52
Blears: 61.9%
Johnson: 14.2
Benn: 10.9
Cruddas: 7.0
Hain: 4.0
Harman: 2.0
Direct winner: Blears
Benny 24
Bleary 11
Crudite 15
Vain 10
Heman 10
Johnners 30
Benny 51
(I can only do whole numbers, sorry!)
11 should be disqualified for sequence offences.
Benn 22.4
Blears 9.3
Cruddas 24.2
Hain 7.1
Harman 13.5
Johnson 23.5
Johnson = 57.1
Round 1 Total
Benn 19.1
Blears 9.9
Cruddas 22.4
Hain 10.4
Harman 16.3
Johnson 21.9
Winner: Johnson 54.9%
Benn 16.7%
Blears 9.1%
Cruddas 23.4%
Hain 13.2%
Harman 17.6%
Johnson 20.0%
Johnson = 54% (where final total of top 2 runners = 100%)
or
Johnson = 38% (i.e. 0.76 of quota where 2 runners plus votes which did not transfer = 100%)
Benn 23.5
Blears 5.9
Cruddas 20.1
Hain 6.6
Harman 17.4
Johnson 26.5
Johnson 50.2
• Hilary Benn 20
• Hazel Blears 10
• John Cruddas 14
• Peter Hain 14
• Harriet Harman 18
• Alan Johnson 24
Johnson 54
Hilary Benn 18
Hazel Blears 9
John Cruddas 22
Peter Hain 7
Harriet Harman 20
Alan Johnson 24
Winner: Cruddas 51
following order:
• Hilary Benn 25
• Hazel Blears 20
• John Cruddas 15
• Peter Hain 10
• Harriet Harman 5
• Alan Johnson 15
Hazel Blears 51
Hilary Benn 23.4%
Hazel Blears 8.8%
Jon Cruddas 24.2%
Peter Hain 7.7%
Harriet Harman 10.9%
Alan Johnson 25.0%
Winner: Johnson, 57.8%
Hilary Benn 20.5%
Hazel Blears 11.0%
Jon Cruddas 19.5%
Peter Hain 9.0%
Harriet Harman 18.0%
Alan Johnson 22.0%
Winner: Hilary Benn 51.0%
and the prize is?!
23 - to be the new Chief Whip!
Not really got a clue but will guess
Benn 18.1%
Blears 7.5%
Cruddas 22.7%
Hain 10.4%
Harman 20.3%
Johnson 21.0%
Winner Harman 50.2%
Benn 23pc
Blears 11pc
Cruddas 17pc
Hain 13pc
Harman 16pc
Johnson 20pc
Winner: Benn 54pc
Benn 17.2%
Blears 10.2%
Cruddas 17.2%
Hain 10.8%
Harman 19.7%
Johnson 24.9%
Winner Johnson 52.4%
Benn 19.8
Blears 9.6
Cruddas 14.2
Hain 8.6
Harman 17.8
Johnson 30.0
Winner: Johnson 56.2%
Benn 20.0%
Blears 10.8%
Cruddas 17.7%
Hain 13.1%
Harman 14.2%
Johnson 24.2%
Winner Johnson 56.2%
29 Copycat!
Anyone fancying averaging alll the PB predictions out and doing a accumulated wisdom of our crowd prediction?
Benn 20.0%
Blears 13.1%
Cruddas 16.5%
Hain 9.5%
Harman 20.6%
Johnson 20.3%
To win: Johnson 50.9%
Part 1 -
Benn 23.1
Blears 14.1
Cruddas 14.4
Hain 11.0
Harman 19.5
Johnson 28.9
Part 2 - Johnson 56.7
Johnson 24
Harman 22
Cruddas 20
Benn 17
Hain 9
Blears 8
To win: Johnson 53%
Benn 16.9
Blears 9.9
Hain 9.2
Johnson 27.0
Cruddas 17.5
Harman 19.5
Winner: Johnson 53.9%
As I’m acutally involved I’d better not post a prediction, but i’ll send it to Mike to pass on to Paul if he’s willing - don’t mind it appearing after Friday lunchtime (deadline for voting).
Part 1:
Hilary Benn - 23.8 %
Hazel Blears – 9.1 %
John Cruddas – 15.0 %
Peter Hain – 8.1 %
Harriet Harman – 14.7 %
Alan Johnson – 29.3 %
Part 2
Alan Johnson – 60.5 %
36. Can I propose a £10 side bet with Nick Palmer. I bet that Hain achieves a lower first round percentage score than Nick P. predicts. I don’t normally bet for charity but on this occasion I would be happy for the cats to take all winnings.
In this competition, shouldn’t the basic measure be the square of the differences rather than the differences? ISTR that ‘best fit’ is based on squares.
Part 1:
Hilary Benn - 23.8 %
Hazel Blears – 8.1 %
John Cruddas – 17.0 %
Peter Hain – 10.1 %
Harriet Harman – 18.7 %
Alan Johnson – 24.3 %
Part 2
Alan Johnson – 56.6 %
Hilary Benn 35.0
Hazel Blears 13.2
John Cruddas 23.4
Peter Hain 7.7
Harriet Harman 0.0
Alan Johnson 29.3
Benn 51.6
Benn 19.5
Blears 8.4
Cruddas 9.1
Hain 5.6
Harmon 21.4
Johnson 36
Johnson 61.4
Benn 19.5
Blears 8.4
Cruddas 9.1
Hain 5.6
Harmon 21.4
Johnson 36
Johnson 61.4
Benn 15.6
Blears 9.5
Cruddas 18.7
Hain 13.2
Harmon 18.8
Johnson 24.2
Johnson 53.6
Benn 15.5
Blears 15
Cruddas 19
Hain 14.5
Harman 17.5
Johnson 18.5
Harman 51
Bit of a shame the deadline is today as I am in Belfast with work and don’t have the figures I worked out the other day of all of this to hand. So a complete guess coming up. It’ll be interesting to get back and see if the guess is better than my calculated figures!
Benn, Hillary: 19.0%
Blears, nuts about: 8.4%
Cruddas, Gordon doesn’t want: 23.1%
Hain, only Nick wants: 10.2%
Harman, did you know I’m female by the way: 16.5%
Johnson, Alan: 22.8%
Part 2, Johnson to win with 55% of votes in final round, assuming as Mike O’Carroll says at 16 that votes are weighted to sum to 100%
Part 1.
Benn 21.3%
Blears 9.7%
Cruddas 15.4%
Hain 14.9%
Harman 18.6%
Johnson 20.1%
Part 2 Benn 52.7%.
Part 1
Benn 22.5
Blears 10.5
Cruddas 19.5
Hain 12.5
Harman 13.5
Johnson 21.5
Part 2 Benn 50.5
Part 1
Benn 22.5
Blears 10.5
Cruddas 19.5
Hain 12.5
Harman 13.5
Johnson 21.5
Part 2 Benn 50.5
Benn 25.0%
Blears 13.3%
Cruddas 17.6%
Hain 9.6%
Harman 16.0%
Johnson 18.5%
Winner Johnson 51.3
part 1
Benn 19.3%
Blears 7.9%
Cruddas 23.6%
Hain 16.7%
Harman 14.1%
Johnson 18.4%
part 2
Cruddas 50.7
sorry do not do decimals or odd numbers (never been picked up though in 14 years of completing mileage claims)
part 1
Benn 18
Blears 10
Cruddas 18
Hain 12
Harman 18
Johnson 24
part 2
Johnson-54%
Cruddas 50.7
part 1:
Benn 20%
Blears 12%
Cruddas 15%
Hain 18%
Harman 9%
Johnson 26%
part 2:
Johnson 58%
Benn 25%
Cruddas 20%
Johnson 19%
Harman 18%
Hain 10%
Blears 8%
Johnson 58%
Part 1:
Benn 18.7%
Blears 13.2%
Cruddas 20.8%
Hain 8.6%
Harman 17.1%
Johnson 21.6%
Part 2:
Cruddas 51.1%
Part 1:
Benn 22.7%
Blears 6.9%
Cruddas 18.8%
Hain 10.6%
Harman 18.6%
Johnson 22.4%
Part 2:
Johnson 56.3%
Round 1 2 3 4
Benn 20.4% 22.0 (+1.6%) 24.5 (+2.5%) 28.8 (+4.3%)
Blears 11.5% 12.8 (+1.3%) xx xx
Cruddas 19.3% 21.0 (+1.7%) 24.1 (+3.1%) 29.8% (+5.7%)
Hain 6.7% xx xx xx
Harman 16.4% 17.2 (+0.8%) 21.6% (+4.4%) xx
Johnson 25.7% 26.9 (+1.2%) 29.6% (+2.7%) 40.1 (+10.5%)
Final Run in Johnson 53.7 (+13.6) - Cruddas 44 (+14.2%)
Went a bit far and thought i could guess the transfers too!!
Benn 21%
Blears 10.5%
Cruddas 18%
Hain 9.5%
Harman 17%
Johnson 24%
Benn 20
Blears 12
Cruddas 19
Hain 10
Harman 17
Johnson 22
Benn 52
Hilary Benn 20.5
Hazel Blears 11.5
John Cruddas 18
Peter Hain 9.5
Harriet Harman 17
Alan Johnson 23.5
Final Johnson to win with 56%
Off topic but are the bookies offering a price on whether Blair gets a round of applause from his backbenchers at the end of his final PMQs next week?
Benn 20.0
Blears 9.0
Cruddas 19.0
Hain 11.0
Harman 17.5
Johnson 23.5
Johnson 58.0
Benn 18%
Blears 12%
Cruddas 23%
Hain 6%
Harman 16%
Johnson 25%
Johnson 53%
Benn 20.5
Blears 6.4
Cruddas 22.3
Hain 7.2
Harman 18.0
Johnson 25.6
Winner: Johnson 62.1
Benn 16
Blears 10
Cruddas 19
Hain 14
Harmon 16
Johnson 25
Winner: Cruddas 52
Part 1
Hilary Benn 18.4%
Hazel Blears 10.7%
John Cruddas 20.1%
Peter Hain 9.2%
Harriet Harman 20.4%
Alan Johnson 21.2%
Part 2
Winner AJ 52.4%
Benn 18.1%
Blears 11.5%
Cruddas 22.1%
Hain 10.2%
Harman 18.2%
Johnson 19.9%
Part 2 winner Harman 51.9% ( percentage of votes cast in final round ) or expressed differently 49.0% ( percentage of total votes cast )
thank god this Purgatory will soon be over…….
Benn 19.8
Blears 10.2
Cruddas 16.9
Hain 14.1
Harman 17.8
Johnson 21.2
Winner Johnson 52.3% of final 2
benn 17
blears 11
cruddas 19
hain 13
harman 15
johnson 25
winner Johnson 60%