Is being on the right side of the polls enough?
June 21st, 2007
Can Brown be liberal and illiberal at the same time?
At the recent British Polling Council conference I got into a debate with a Labour party official about being mis-led by polling findings and that the only thing that mattered was the electoral impact. Thus pursuing a policy that was broadly supported was not necessarily the right thing to do.
He quoted the national ID card issue which poll after poll has shown has broad public support and on which he said “Labour was on the right side of public opinion”. Indeed a big YouGov survey last year had 52% in favour to 37% against.
Yet that same survey found that unlike those backing the main two parties the declared Lib Dem supporters were against.
I know a Lib Dem member who has supported the party and its predecessor all her life who feels so strongly about the issue that if she thought that the only way of stopping the cards was by voting Tory would possibly do so. Her decision could be crucial because unlike the vast majority of electors she lives in a highly marginal Labour seat. The last thing Labour wants is for electors like her to vote tactically.
It is doubtful that her actions would not be off-set by supporters of ID cards moving to Labour over the issue.
A massive challenge for Brown is having policies on crime, terrorism and immigration that keep Labour’s core support together and at the same time to try to win back some of the 6% who switched from Labour to the Lib Dems in 2005.
This is the battle-ground for the next election. My sense is that Cameron knows it but I’m not certain about Brown.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike,
I know a good few Lib dems who are considering voting Tory next time round purely because of ID cards. When the system is in it will be really hard to get rid of, and consequently people are willing to hold their noses and vote for the only party which would be in a position to stop the project in it’s tracks.
1 “I know a good few Lib dems who are considering voting Tory next time round purely because of ID cards.”
Oh, come off it, no you don’t.
I want to see more of Biggle Harista Grandol…
What a great name!
Looks a babe ! ( Fills out his form for PC retraining course)
I know a good few BNP members who are considering voting Labour at the next election purely to annoy the Conservatives to oust Cameron, to reposition the Conservatives to the right, in order to destroy UKIP who are their worst enemy who….
COME ON!!!!
All sorts of people vote for all sorts of parties for all sorts of reasons. These are specialist issues which, whilst important, don’t bother anywhere near the hundreds of thousands needed to significantly affect an election.
There is no critical issue that will nail the floating voters.
It will come down to perception on which leader is best for Britain, as it always does.
ID cards will be Labour’s poll tax if they pass it. While a majority might be vaguely in favour those against the cards feel highly strongly about it. If Labour win the next election, I expect widespread non-compliance, which will cause any Labour government to lose its authority. However, I still expect the Conservatives to win the next election so I don’t think it will happen.
4. A mere 22 years of age, too. Lives in Milton Keynes - friend of Tpfkar’s perhaps.
3/4 Bob/TB. It’s a fella !!!
I think what you need to remember is that the proportion of electors for whom this is a big issue is (depressingly) small. The more pertinent question to ask voters is “what would make you back a different party to the one you backed in 2005?”
I suspect that “position on ID cards” won’t be high enough on the list of answers to decide the election.
I think most floating voters weigh the government’s record against how attractive the alternatives look.
EEkk - Shock horror !! (re-books course for resit of sexuality exam !)
8. Ha, we need more evidence.
9 I think that’s right Steve..
There’s a big element of ‘1992′ about the next election to me.
If DC can break through in a big way and force a sea change to the public’s perception of the party, well played him.
Equally, our old mate, the great clunking fist remains the tried and tested old pro, who’s seen it all, sat at the top table, and as irritating as hell as it is for low tax Tory Boy’s like me has managed to avoid (more by luck and via the booming Global economy
than judgement IMHO) falling houseprices and directing ever rising increases in the share that Taxation takes from GDP without causing any discernable disatisfaction to the voting public.
I continue to believe that as long as the fickle finger of fate stays on his side, both opposition parties remain stymied.
When it all begins to disentigrate, as it will, economic cycle are just that, sometimes, even quite often, irrespective of the policies of the Government of the day, will be the time when NuLab’s popularity begins to really turn.
Whether it will happen this side of the next GE or not is anyones
guess.
Roll back to 1987, most people polled were in favour of the “Community Charge”. Move on three years and it’s top of the agenda. Because ID cards barely feature at the moment, or indeed a majority favour them, does not mean this will always be the case.
What is important is not how many people oppose an issue, but how devotes to opposing the issue the people are. Hence the Poll Tax sunk Maggie, because those who opposed it were willing to go the barricades. I think you’ll find: ditto ID cards. And damned right too!
Of the people who oppose ID cards, an unusually large chunk are militant about it.
And when people say, they will vote Tory, this means in marginals. The anti-ID card type are almost always internet literate (which is why they oppose them) and will know about tactical voting.
If No2ID starts running a tactical voting campaign in 2009, it could get interesting.
“When it all begins to disentigrate, as it will”
People have been saying this for the last 8 or 9 years.
“If No2ID starts running a tactical voting campaign in 2009, it could get interesting.”
What if the general election is in 2010 and they’ve already been introduced?
The majority of those who are not politically active could care about ID cards.
What they do care about is having to pay for them.
At about £100 each this is a major issue and a vote swinger.
If they really are going to do so much to combat crime, terrorism and fraud the government could afford to fund them out of savings made in the police budget.
O/T, re the Pantsdown approach - have there been any illuminating words or comment from our great leader-in-waiting on this yet?
Or has he gone into hiding behind his blacked-out windows again?
Much as would wish it otherwise ID cards are no poll tax I am afraid.
ID cards are supported by too many people who just haven’t thought beyond the slogans (it’ll cut crime; it’ll cut immigration) and I think it may turn out to be a popular move.
I loathe the fact that our civil liberties have become such a low priority but we have the sensational press in a devils pact with new Labour between them spouting that there are terrorists, rapists, murderers and child molesters everywhere to blame.
Sad but true, but we have become a country who would rather feel safe than actually be free.
17 No I don’t think Cameron has made any comment at all .
8: Seeing as Grandol Biggle Harista is an anagram of “Girl gear and a shit blog”, then surely it is in fact Benedict…?!
Interesting article Mike. The other thing is taht those against something are more likely to vote than those a bit for it.
So a double whammy. Labour could lose lots of key support.
Apologies if this has been posted before (as I dont have time to read all 300 posts on the previous thread) but Nick Robinson has an excellent time-line on his blog showing the events that led to today’s story about Ming and Brown’s cosying up:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2007/06/timeline_the_de.html
This rather undermines the idea that Ming knew nothing about it or that he instantly refused such a preposterous offer. It suggests that the gullible old fella went shuffling off after any junior Ministerial crumbs that Brown might be willing to throw him!!
Now he is reaping the whirlwind from within his own party. A good friend tells me of a furious row between three MPs about this today in a senior Lib Dem front bencher’s office!!
22. The ‘d’ word will soon be on everyone’s lips again
Re 5, Casino Royal, it is not hundreds of thousands if they are in the right seats, it is tens of thousands, and the anti ID card mob are a lot more motivated than the pros.
Dear Bally Eric,
I didn’t say when of if it will happen, only that it will.
I also said :
“irrespective of the policies of the Government of the day”
So chill out. If I post something anti-NuLabour you’ll know !!
Regards
That’s economics in a nutshell.
Another one of Peter the Punter’s tips has just got a place, Desert Dew. Well done Peter.
Labour/Lib Dem swing voters are *an* element of the vote that Labour needs to retain its majority, but I’m not sure they’re the crucial element. I would suggest they’re heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of constituencies.
Like it or not, I don’t see ID cards swaying that many votes.
Re 27, Sean, I can’t see the pro’s being swung, but I can see the anti’s changing.
22 It is a great timeline and I posted it with quotes. Ming was actively considering this deal.
28. Exactly Benedict, I too can’t see pro ID card voters being swung but I can see the anti lobby being organised enough to mount an awareness campaign of tactical voting on this. Could attract quite a few of the younger voters who would not normally bother to vote?
Marcus. “Sad but true, but we have become a country who would rather feel safe than actually be free”
And what kind of freedom can we enjoy if we aren’t safe? What a weird trade off.
1. ID cards is a Tory idea taken up by Tony Blair and supported by all sorts of Tories who have dared to be honest. They are jealous because if they tried to bring in draconian right-wing measures the combined Labour/Lib Dems and the media would have painted them into the unpopular corner. As would having a series of Atilla-like Home Secretaries…starting stupid wars….. destroying NHS dentistry… creating centralised super-councils….
This ID card policy was opposed opportunistically by Cameron and co for short-term political gain. You can be absolutely certain that no Conservative government worthy of the name would ever dream of not deploying whatever excuse they have probably already agreed/ identified privately for deciding that the national security interest requires them to retain these unpopular measures, blah blah….
So let’s make sure that Tony Blair’s is the last Conservative Government worthy of the name?
22.
Can any of you clever mathematicians out there post up a Venn diagram showing the intersection of Nick Robinson’s reporting and verity?
31. Roger joins the ‘ordnung muss sein’ crowd…now that is weird. Or perhaps not. Sometimes one feels that if Labour were proposing a massacre of the innocents Roger would support that, too.
I’ve always argued (as the MP who first proposed them) that the argument can be won, and I went as high profile about it as I could last time - challenged my opponents to debate it in a public meeting, wrote to every household summarising pro and con arguments (the latter from a LibDem leaflet) and asking them to let me have their views, featured it prominently in my election address, etc. I’m only aware of a single voter who I lost over the issue, though I also don’t know anyone who I gained from it - by the end of the campaign people shrugged and voted on other issues. The position next time round will be much stronger since they will already have started to be issued to those who want them and the Register will be in place covering everyone who’s applied for a passport in the meantime, without the roof fallnig in. Remember that the cards won’t be compulsory - ‘resistance’ is a bit ineffective if it amounts to refusing to renew your passport (’OK, don’t then’).
I do think the LibDems have some potential in the general civil liberties area (detention is a much hotter issue), but they’re mistaken to think this particular aspect is going to be a big vote-winner. As with CCTV, most people really don’t see a problem, and the minority who feel there is are largely already hostile to Labour. Remember No2ID were predicting a general revulsion of sentiment by now and said we’d never get it through Parliament.
To preempt challenges, I should say that I’m not really willing to debate the merits here - I’m just contributing on the likely voting impact, which in the end I suspect is going to be not much either way.
33.
X
31.
“what kind of freedom can we enjoy if we aren’t safe?”
Roger obviously doesn’t go ski-ing too often. Freedom is an experience, a perception, rather than a reality. A feeling of lack of freedom produces angst, irrespective of how restricted or threatened you truly are.
Precisely one of those issues where those nominally in favour actually care very little are more exercised about other issues, wheras those against tend to be passionately so and prepared to change their votes on it
35 Nick P. Thank you for that non debating post of several hundred words !!
35. Pity you are not prepared to debate the issues. But I think you will find the Tory proposals to scrap this costly authoritarian measure, and replace it with 10,000 armed border police (not uniformed immigration officers, Labour’s choice) will be highly popular.
Civil liberties tops anything else on my list of voting priorities; if a party was likely to introduce ID cards, for example, I would vote for who would best stop them in my constituency. Given that I’m in Guildford it doesn’t really figure so I still vote lib dem but, if I was in a Con/Lab marginal I’d vote Con (as long as it wasn’t one of the tory auhoritarians who would quite like them).
Surely the point of an ID card is to, well… identify someone.
On the basis of the above photo, this looks like another great success for the government.
Or am I missing something (resist, roger, resist!)
39 Nick P ….. And further as you didn’t ask I’ll say :
ID Cards - No !! on grounds of cost effectiveness :
Cost - To the public purse - Several £Billion and rising.
Cost - To the public’s purse - Who knows - £100 ??
Effectiveness - The July 7th Bombers !!
Effectiveness - Government record on IT projects.
Mark Senior can you go to 136 on the Ashdown thread you misunderstood (perhaps mischievously)what I was asking
I like the idea of ID cards. That’s because as a non-driver, I don’t normally have photographic ID to carry around - when I’m in Italy (which I often am) I have to carry my passport, as a ID is complulsory. I don’t like carrying my passport.
Now you might remark that my reason for supporting ID cards is very banal.
Personally I think the trumped up nonsense about civil liberties coming from those who want to make a big issue about this is too, though.
45 - Some people understand the idea of liberty and some don’t.
Much of new labour doesn’t, especially those who grew up in Stalinist/Trot circles (many of their big hitters in fact). The idea that people can be compelled is in their blood. Although much of the tory hierarchy are instinctive libertarians their activists aren’t, look at conhome to see the hangers and floggers out in force, can they fight off the hordes who demand blood?
It’s up to those who understand liberty to make sure those who don’t are not going to wake up and suddenly wonder why they didn’t complain about losing it in the first place.
“The Polish prime minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, made the extraordinary claim that it would be eligible for more votes in the EU if the Nazis had not invaded Poland in 1939.”
Interesting point. Can’t imagine it’s gone down well in Berlin though.
I wonder is quite a few Tories wouldn’t vote Lib Dem on this issue in Lab Lib seats as well
40. Labour would far rather oppress UK nationals than inconvenience foreigners (who might after all be potential future voters).
45. All your posts are banal.
47. Rather depends which set of borders you are using I think - Germany might be able to claim it would have more votes on pre-1945 borders…but then the Poles might counterclaim that if Prussia and Russia had not dismembered the old Polish kingdom in the 18th century it would have even more votes…and so on…
46. Tory activists are generally more libetarian when it comes to their own liberties. By and large (and I know I’m setting up the punch line here but there is a serious point as well), the hanging and flogging is of others.
ID cards will affect everyone or at least just about everyone - as is usually the case, those who oppose will do so more vigourously than those who approve will support. I don’t think it will be a Poll Tax-type issue - not enough care enough to generate a crisis on that scale - but I do think it will be a consistent theme over the next few years if pursued by the government.
47. As in excess of 50 million people died in World War II, there are no doubt many countries that would have had larger populations today had Germany not invaded Poland in 1939.
I agree with Stonch and for similar reasons. They are likely to make life simpler. Today I needed a new tax disc. Instead of sending an MOT a log book and an insurance certificate to the DVLA I just phoned a number and gave them my car registration number and a credit card number. They have the rest on computer. It was blissfully simple. Travelling around Europe is now simple. Not belonging to the Shengen agreement makes it more difficult for the British but once away from here it’s easy.
These are freedoms. The freedom to get on with your life not to spend forever proving your identity and filling in forms.
“The Libdems aren’t interested, it will be a long time before the Libdems sit around the cabinet table and there is good talent within our own party.” Thought the last part of Alan Johnston’s comments on ITV news were very telling!
Poor Ming has been getting all the strife so far from his own party for having discussions with Brown, but I am pretty sure that one or two Labour MP’s and candidates will have been equally unhappy even if they are not being so vocal about it. Could Brown have done himself some damage within his own ranks which might not be immediately apparent?
36 Roger - Could go into deep philosophical arguments about freedom versus security but the point about ID cards is they don’t make you more secure just less free. Didn’t help in Spain, wouldn’t have stopped the good British lads who blew themselves up on the Tube. Will not reduce crime, fraud etc (certainly haven’t in any country I’ve lived in with ID cards).
What they do is limit the freedom of law abiding citizens. Fines if you don’t tell the Government where you live. Monitor your use of state services - no longer public services but services the state licenses you to access. They cost you a fortune in taxes to set up then in for having them just to priovide the government with more data about your activities.
The Tories might have been attracted to the Dark side under Howard and the Davis compromise in letting the legislation through while still being anti rather defeated the principled opposition but I think they will prove a damaging thing to Labour electorally, with both Tories and LDs benefiting. Most people don’t get het up about things until they impinge on them personally and ID cards will. It’s also guaranteed that the technology will throw up stupid errors - “my dog got a fine for not having a card”"104 year old Jacobite banned following because Romanian impersonated him to gain free NHS treatment.”
46. UKPaul. So what have you got against ID cards that you haven’t got against Passpoirts, Driving licences, credit cards and sundry other forms of identification that most people need on a weekly basis?
.
44 Evening Punter , my misunderstanding was not mischievous . Just home from work and out for a couple of hours soon but will ponder your rephrased question .
Lokking at Nick Robinson’s timeline , it looks unlikely to me that the Guardian story would have come via Paddy . I would not have thought that he would have wanted to say anything until after his meeting with GB which was not until Wednesday pm .
55. Roger, they are compartmentalised. I don’t mind doing the census every ten years but I resent the government having any more information than that at their disposal, I also object to plans by this government to include a question on the household income in the next one. After all the incompetence Labour has shown on IT projects like tax credits I would not trust them to correctly process and secure this information.
But most importantly I think that a politician like Brown who has to micromanage and control everything in such a Stalinist way really will become Big Brother watching and processing our every move. What of the opposition parties will they be able to access some of this information as well?
55 - They will make us less safe.
Governments want to control and it’s down to the people to fight that tendency. I haven’t renewed my passport and will only do so if I’m sure that it will not be used in ways that compromise my identity. I will also not visit the US while they insist in treating visitors like criminals by fingerprinting them. I don’t drive and all my other identification is for private concerns, separate to government.
I, along with thousands of others, will not just oppose ID cards we will work to bring the whole system down through civil disobedience.
I’ve had my identity nicked twice and I’m not about to put it into the one stop identity shop that is ID cards, especially as the government will have their paws all over it.
58. With that sort of paranoia I would suggest Harley street!
55 Roger. As it’ll not be compulsory to carry the ID card the point of them is errrrrr …… ????
56. Its been the drip drip way that the information has filtered through. Firstly the details only appear to have been known to a very small group around Ming, and they would have been aware of how damaging leaking this would be within the party. Paddy Ashdown kept his chats with Blair secret for quite a while and would have been the last person I would have expected to have leaked this.
59 - It’s not that I think they will automatically use it for nefarious means, it’s that I don’t think they should be giving themselves the opportunity to do that in the first place.
If you’d had your identity stolen you’d understand.
Going back to Marcus’ original post, the verbs are the important bits:
“Sad but true, but we have become a country who would rather feel safe than actually be free” (my italics).
OK, the being free is probably an exaggeration - not having ID cards won’t make people free, nor will introducing them make them slaves to the government - but they will reduce people’s freedom and seriously change the relationship between the government and individuals. All this so that people can feel safer, whether or not they actually are.
60 As an authoritative source on all things Lib Dem got any psephological view on 136 on the Ashdown thread. Interesting point can the Lib Dems win Labour seats that do not have a relatively recent Tory History
I wish they’d hurry up and bring ID cards out on a voluntary basis (if they haven’t already, that is, I may have missed it) because for the reasons I stated at 45 I would find one useful.
I would be very amused if Cameron decided again that ID cards were a good idea and it’s not impossible! A couple of focus groups and it’ll happen. After all he supported them when Michael Howard was incharge. Watching the Tories on here genuflect backwards as they have done so often in the last two years would make it all worthwhile!
Paul. We havent got ID cards so if you’ve had your identity stolen twice maybe it’s time to give a different system a chance?
66 - Only part was stolen, put it in one place and all of it will be. Just how difficult is that to understand?
People hacked into a site that had my credit card details for one of them, given government cock ups and IT meltdowns it’s asking for trouble allowing hackers, other criminals and insiders the chance to access the whole package, indeed it would appear to be you that needs Harley Street.
66. As of now it is still mildly challenging to steal things like that, several documents needed to be obtained etc. But they won’t need bother with ID Cards, because a one stop shop will have been created for criminals! Plus no IT system ever runs to time and budget in this country. GB knows this after having to shell out for the Home Office, the Passport Office……………. Ad Infinitum. I would still think he will find a way to kick it into the long grass, and leave it to be implememented say after a reasonable gap when technology is efficient say 50 or 60 years
Is this really credible?
“Neil Stewart, political secretary to Kinnock at the 1992 general election, said DC’s chances of becoming Prime Minister were much greater. He then raised the prospect of Mr Cameron entering No 10 with as few as 230 seats as long as Labour had lost its overall majority.If other parties allowed a minority Tory administration to get its Queen’s Speech programme through, Mr Cameron could survive as Prime Minister.”
Well yes but 230 seats I mean really. Is this a variation on the one in ten campaign
66: ‘After all he supported them when Michael Howard was incharge.’
Did he? Says here Dave’s voting record is ’strongly against’.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/david_cameron/witney
I think the quoted labour party official demonstrates the importance of the sometimes maligned tools of qual political research - the dreaded focus group.
In a quant survey you can get simple majorities for something like an id card. But to truly test public support you need to know how deep that support really is. To do that you need to resarch how responses might change when confronted with having to pay £100 for an id card. Running through every day realistic scenarios about when people might be expected to produce an id card, and what problems might arise if they don’t have it on them. If then, you still get majority support, well, there you go. But I suspect when presented with id cards in those, practical, terms the levels of support will change.
Mike’s point is a good one. “Who” is most likey to support and which sub groups of voters really dislike the idea. Are the ones who like/dislike likely to switch vote based on that policy? I can’t see anyone switching TO Labour cos of id cards, but I know for many left of centre voters, it’s a real turn-off.
66 Roger - reminder it’s facts that win arguments. Cameron did not support ID cards, many Tories did not support Howard on ID cards.
Gordon Brown however did stand as a supporter of the 1983 Labour Election manifesto - gosh what a flip flopper that man is, obviously puts office before principles. how he can stand up and defend Trident after what he said he believed etc etc
ID cards - What is the point?
The use and availability of technology to organised criminal gangs is that great that counterfit cards or biometric details will be easily produced. No doubt about it!!!
What is their purpose, so the police on an undercover operations can give the game away and say - Please could i look at your ID card?!!!
It is a pointless gimmick and i would not want to pay for something like that. Waste of money, If it is a case of anti-terrorism then it is wiser to target the resources at the troublemakers rather than the whole population. You are not telling me that the intellegence agencies targeted Japanese or German people when hunting down IRA cells?
Indeed i am pretty sure that apart from the odd rogue bin laden cells the authorities are just as aware of them as they were of the IRA. Indeed they used to get people to help the IRA from the intellegence forces!!! They would of course try and scupper any acts of terrorism but i bet some got through and are licience to 100 years secrecy.
The support for ID cards by people like Roger and Stonch shows how the Left shares more in common the Far Right than either does with the Centre & Centre-Right. Both the earlier positions have a Rousseauian view of society that the sacrifice of the individual must come for the sake of the greater good. That they are willing to give over to government the power to track their daily lives for the sake of convenience or the claim of more security is truly disturbing. The introduction of ID cards is bad enough, but the database that they want to go with it will be the most invasive and comprehensive system any government has on its citizens in the world. No doubt road pricing and the ability to track every car journey in the UK will probe to be a great complement to ensure government vigilance is complete. I consider myself a political moderate but I am genuinely willing to be arrested over protesting this.
I’d vote for any party with a cast iron guarantee to scrap ID cards
55 Roger stop being so perversely thick. You know full well that the problem is not ID cards per se - which would be quitew useful - but the register behind it which will record every time you proffered it for the rest of your life.
73. Mind you we have got used to Labour wasting cash.
Look at the most recent things £6,000 on Lord Levy’s leaving party, the 10K a year for incumbant MP’s to “promote” their work - Have they never heard of they “Work for you” or creating good relations with local and regional newspapers??!! That costs Nowt and is likely to get a far wider penetration of a local electorate than a website. “You would have to be pretty board to look at an MP’s Website” - Nevermind naked self promotion !!!
I suppose that was Chris Bryant’s idea to do a pilot test of Naked self-promotion!!! 
Personally i think that this LD in the cabinet stuff will rebound on Brown - It just looks like a cynical exercise with decietful intentions. Plus if it is his side leaking the information - it does not say much for his integratory. I still think this has something to do with the By - election in Eailing as they were aware of the MP’s impending demise for a few weeks according to comments on this site and the UK polling report. It rather bust’s the LD’s momentum does it not? If the LD’s won that seat Brown would have a very short honeymoon indeed!
ID cards a just the beginning. Remember, if you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear.
Stage two - your post, emails and phone calls being intercepted. Remember, if you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear. It’s all for the security of the country.
Stage three - CCTV in your house. If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear. Could stop a few terrorists, after all.
Roger is right (again!). ID cards are great - or at least a great start!
78. Stage three - CCTV in your house. If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear. Could stop a few terrorists, after all.
Well if you are into pornography and dirty videos/ DVD’s - then a job doing that would be paradise!!!
I think it is a shocking waste of Time plus money and i object to being on so much government information. Everytime you move house it’s more costs and hassle plus they will probably impose fines for non- complience. Poll Tax 2 - me thinks!!!
78 Stage 4 An implant in everyone’s brain to record your every thought . If you have no evil thoughts you have nothing to fear .
79. Then you have those silly home information packs as well.
I think Labour have planned this well Harriet Harmen will win the DL and visit our screens nightly and tuck us into bed - because mummy knows best!!!
80 - this implant is available for Labour PPCs already. Many have taken up the opportunity. But who defines evil.
80. Or a chip in the back of the neck - If they are good enough for dog’s they are good enough for humans!!!
82 Big brother sorry Labour ministers know best .
75 then I welcome you as a Conservative party supporter as we have promised we will immediately scrap them - David Davis got into a fight with NuLab’s IT bods as he wrote to the Cabinet Secretary, and to them, warning them not to tender for the contract to supply ID cards as a Tory govt will instantly scrap them and will not be bound by any contracts.
84 Entertaining scrap but any thoughts on earlier
86 Not yet Punter , Baccardi dulling brain at moment .
Oh for gods sake would you all wise up. ID cards are not some thin end of a liberty wedge. They won’t change how 99% of us live.
The problem is how the government as sold the concept which has been poor…and its cost. Paying something like £80 to be identified is a bit of a joke on top of other ID methods. Yet again some consultants and companies are having a laugh with taxpayers money because civil servants haven’t a notion and are demanding too much complexity. All they really had to do was look a slightly more sophisticated photographic NI card. Fraud attempts will always occur, it isnt an excuse to drop the idea, its simply a question of degree. If every ID carded indivdual is issued with a unique number a la an NI number then if the cops ask someone to produce an ID card, it can be checked off rapidly. The only way someone can then fake is by identity theft or outright card theft and alteration rather than just forging cards. I don’t see anyone calling for credit cards to be dropped because of identity theft.
What does get on my goat is how the Tories in particular have reacted to this issue. Most of those shouting loudest havent a notion of the practice of security measures because few of them are actually affected by them in anyway whatsoever, of which ID cards are just one part of a very big jigsaw.
Look at Northern Ireland, we had a partial ID card system long before the rest of the UK, it was called a photo driving licence. We had stop and search where you could literally be stopped in the street, asked your details by soldiers or police and asked questions akin to where you were going etc. The forms they filled out, C1’s were a very simple but effective peace of ground level intelligence gathering.
I didnt hear very many Tories or Liberals or anyone complaining about either such measure whatsoever. It could smell of rank hypocrisy couldnt it, and that comes from a broadly Tory supporter.
88 I thought you were Lib Dem/Irish Nat
89. Everyone is entitled to their best guess Punter….
Ted and Robusticus. Have a look at the detail of Cameron’s record on voting on ID cards. Maybe I’m misreading them but it looks to me like he voted in favour every time? (While you’re at it you could look at his record on gay rights which is less than impressive as his record on the Iraq war!)
I understand that it’s all about the information they have on their computer which is why I gave the example of your motor car. The DVLA now have on computer all the details of your car including insurance details any accidents you’ve had and your MOT details. The result is you can get a new road tax without showing your details which they already have. It saves time.
Apologies it doesn’t look like he voted in favour. His record on gay rights though is disappointing.
78 - If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear.
A phrase that, oddly, tends to come from those with net curtains in their window.
An interesting thread – I attended Nick Palmer’s debate about the ID issue and in my opinion he won it however the theme is whether Labour should try to regain the “left” former Labour lost to the Lib Dems or keep it’s core support together by having good policies on crime, terrorism and immigration - at present it appears to be losing this core vote to “others” and not to the Tories.
I am unhappy with Labour re these policies and in May did not vote Labour – it was my intention to vote UKIP but had to settle for Independent however should GB move the party leftwards [for want of a better word] to attempt to regain these lost votes then there is a danger that I might be tempted to put the boot into him by voting Conservative in the next GE. I’m fortunate that I share most of NP views so the temptation would be clouded by this.
Hi Vino! I’m not sure what the Tories have to offer on crime terrorism and immigration? Like most other policies there has just been silence so far.
88. You talk about the NI card in the past tense - were they withdrawn?
95 - Roger - policies wouldn’t matter - if I fell out more with Labour than now my way is to put the boot in by hurting them the most which in Broxtowe would be voting Tory however I recognise they might attract more Lib Dems votes to counteract voters like me!!!
Just doing some back of the fag packet calculations….
The LibDems could expect to win Ealing Southall by the following majorities, if they replicated recent by-election swings…
Bromley or Dunfermline…..4000….majority in Southall
Leicester South…………9000………”"
Brent East…………….15000………”"
88. You’re right - it’s not the “thin end” of the wedge. It’s the middle chunk. The differences between Northern Ireland are huge. NI didn’t have a huge database system detailing all your transactions and movements. And in NI there was a potential end in sight once the two sides could come to an agreement - similar to Churchill bringing in ID cards (although again without a database) during the Second World War, for them to be removed when the war was over. What Labour is proposing is a permanent reduction of liberties (with a far greater degree of surveillance than the previous examples). I’m not arguing against this scheme from a partisan point of view. If the Conservatives had been bringing it in I would vote Lib Dem to stop it. This isn’t a Left-Right issue, its an authoritarian-liberal one.
91. You clearly don’t understand the problems and dangers with centralising of information. Even a country like Germany (which has more of a culture of society over the individual) has laws preventing databases being centralised to stop control and abuses from the centre. If people like you are willing to hand over your privacy and protection of liberty for time-saving purposes, I would have no problem with a voluntary scheme for people like you. Why should I be forced to do it though? As for your point at 95, the reason the Conservatives don’t announce policy so far ahead of an election is that Labour steal most of them, like Brown’s recent backing of increased setting in schools, just a couple of weeks after Cameron’s announcement. Don’t you get tired of always being so partisan?
And for the record, the only gay “right” that Cameron has voted against is adoption, on the basis that he thinks that children need a male and a female role model. I disagree, but its hardly homophobia.
98. They have the handicap of not much Local presence. That said probably 2/3 of their manpower is within two hours drive unlike D & WF. On paper it looks a tad easier than Dunfermline and West Fife, but how soon can they hold it. Labour will surely think speed is of the essence both to capitalise on any good publicity from GB’s arrival and because as both big parties know to their cost a long lead in time simply means more time for the Lib Dem banwagon to gather further steam. I think the Lib Dems should have a real chance of a win though. Labour’s best chance though must be to hold it in July. Can they
88. One other query, how are Tories not affected by security measures? The highest Conservative support is in the home counties commuter belt to London - i.e. the business men and women who commute on the tube on a highly frequent basis and work in the prominent sky scrapers in the City. Surely these people are the most at risk from terrorism, which is what the ID card proponents claim they are protecting us from.
Well, I don’t regard ID cards as “a thin end of the edge”. Merely an expensive intrusion that serves no useful purpose.
31 That’s an interesting point. Sallust said “most people don’t want freedom. They want just masters,” and I think he was quite right, in polical terms. I think that freedom is desirable, in itself, but that’s a minority viewpoint.
891. It’s clear from this series of idiotic posts that no-one would want to steal Roger’s identity.
100 For the record, Cameron was in favour of retaining Section 28, when he stood in 2001.
The ID cards themselves are almost irrelevant to the ID cards bill (Like Sir Humphrey always said - get the title right and the support comes naturally). I could probably come round to them, if they were voluntary. Kind of like a “non-drivers” drivers license. Might even be a good idea, if that (in a voluntary sense) was all there was to it. It is the proposed monolithic master ID Database that, as has already been pointed out, is the issue.
Firstly, the system is pointless. It will do nothing against terrorism - 80% of the countries most hit by terrorism have ID cards. It will do nothing against benefit fraud, by the Government’s own admission. It will do nothing against crime - muggers and burglars are not typically asked for ID when carrying out their crimes.
Secondly, it will be colossally expensive. The Government estimates for this monolithic computerised data register have risen from £3 billion to more than £10 billion. Independent experts have estimated £20 billion. That’s the equivalent of over 100 new hospitals. We will, of course, still have to pay for the card to go with it, at a cost of £85 per person. It won’t be compulsory - you’ll merely need it if you wish to drive, leave the country, use the NHS, work, or claim benefits …
Thirdly, it will actually increase the chance of identity theft. The experiences of other countries suggest that if someone can get hold of your unique master number, they can take your identity far more comprehensively and easily than at present. The cards will, of course, be forgeable.
If they won’t be, why are huge penalties proposed for doing so?
Fourthly, the Bill assumes that the system will work perfectly and without leaks, despite the failure of this Government to successfully implement almost any major IT system that it has undertaken, despite the experience of the current criminal register where at least 193 innocent people have been incorrectly accused, despite the experience with the DVLA official leaking the home addresses of selected individuals to animal rights organisations. So anyone with “something to hide” - such as abused spouses escaping their partners, witnesses in witness protection schemes, investigative journalists, policemen and armed forces members (criminals and terrorists will love this database, with its home addresses) - will live in fear.
Fifthly, I resent being required to turn up at a time and place of the Government’s choice to be fingerprinted, at the threat of a £1,000 fine, being threatened with another £1,000 fine if I forget to notify the Government when I move house, having my details disclosed without my consent to a variety of agencies, and then facing the possibility of losing my basic rights to travel, use the health service, and work if I don’t have my card or if it is defective.
It is pointless, difficult, expensive, dangerous and intrusive. What’s to support?
OT. Beeb reporting that Labour MP Mohammed Sarwar will not seek re-election in Glasgow Central :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6228920.stm
Hey, am I the only person part of the blogging operation for Election Day at http://www.votesaxon.org.uk? (Yes, I know it’s a spoof but just look at these results)
Dumfriesshire
Saxon 13872 31.09%
Conservative 13796 30.92%
Labour 7785 17.45%
Scottish National Party 5286 11.84%
Liberal Democrat 3476 7.79%
Others 397 0.88%
Saxon GAIN with a majority of 76
Wigan
Saxon 28031 69.60%
Labour 7221 17.93%
Conservative 3225 8.00%
Liberal Democrat 1681 4.17%
Others 112 0.27%
Saxon GAIN with a majority of 20,810
The Hitchens on QT !!
96. David its the driving licence which you guys now have. The photographic license was introduced in NI some time before elsewhere in the UK and it was no accident that it was. The DVLA systems here have long been linked to police & miltary systems as it was. Thats how cops can radio in a check on a suspect vehicle or indeed a vehicle that they see driven by a suspect?
TJM, get your facts right. There is no government system that tracks a citizens every move, simply your demand for government services, or if you are suspected or convicted of criminal activity enables the authorities to question you. Government today simply can’t function without such technology that records information. The question is what they do with it. Those systems are not generally very joined up at all and are only analysed in any detail regarding a mere fraction of the population.
All the other systems tracking people’s actions are commercially based and require the government to request the information, they do not have walk in access at all to it.
Secondly when the measures in NI were put in place we were in the midst of the violence, it wasn’t trowards the end of anything so that claim doesnt stand. In fact improved sustems have been put in post ceasefires.
Thirdly in NI, in there was a security database and amongst the data fed into it was recording all people who were subject to a C1 form filling check, which could happen on the street if you were stopped. That database was filtered so that whilst estensive records were held on it the only ones that got tracked in any detail were those who were players. The rest were essentially dead and archived off. Everytime the cops stopped someone, who an individual officer may or may not have recognised as a player and recorded their details, the C1 details would be fed into the system and the names, addresses etc checked off. If the person was a player then the details of their location where they were stopped etc could be kept and crossed checked for future reference against crimes etc. The C1’s were a very blunt meausre, I suspect 10s possibly hundreds of thousands of C1’s were done and tracked through the systems to build up pictures of players activities and movements. Add that to other forms of intelligence and it wasn’t wasted because the cops probably knew what underwear some players were wearing on a particular day.
I was C1′d at least twice in the street as adult in the early 1990s that I can recall, once in 1994 coming home from work…the first IRA ceasfire was 1994. That just proves your argument above on the end in sight idea doesnt stand up. Secondly its perfectly possible that my name and details are on military & police records, but they are simply passive because I wouldnt have been of interest.
Post IRA ceasfire the army & police were improving their systems including number plate reading technology around certain sites that could again be linked into owner checking sytstems. The old computer system for storing details has been upgraded so it allows more intuitive and predictice checking and pattern formation as the technology improved.
In the days when we introduced the photo driving license the cops had a simple check on people for personal details confirmations.
If you think thats just restricted to NI, forget it. I’ve been stopped on taking the plane home from Heathrow to Belfast once by Special Branch long after the ceasefires were in place. My idenitifcation driving license was taken into a side room and no doubt my details were checked off. 5 minutes later i was given my licence back and that was it. Maybe they thought I looked suspect, maybe they thought they recognised me as someone else. Frankly I couldnt give a fiddlers they were doing a check, just as they do at the Belfast gates at Heathrow for years on years. I would bet that that interaction wasnt recorded in any other detail other than my name and address were checked off against a criminal/terrorist suspect database and proved negative. End of.
The truth of the matter is that the government information on an average citizen will in fact be less used and analysed than what Tesco do on their clubcard because in government they only really put any focus on people of interest who are in any single situation a small minority.
Before you suggest that the cops knew everyone who they wanted to monitor in NI there is human error. I’ve seen off duty police and miltary stopped and questioned by the police and army at checkpoints before they were either asked what they did for a living or they showed some kind of ID and it became clear. Its perfectly possible the cop or squaddie thought they had someone of interest or confused the persons appearance with someone they saw on a photo montage.
108 Saxon really is the master
Defection alert Widdecombe Defects along with Sharon Osbourne!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/doctorwho/ram/312_trail2?size=16×9&bgc=CC0000&nbram=1&bbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1
101 Harry. Amazing count speed in rural Cyldesdale and Tweedale !!
112 Jonathan. Has anyone told Rik ??
70.
“Dave’s voting record is ’strongly against’.”
bit like his memory then?
106. Bravissimo! Great Post, Mt Cooke - Well said! You have put into words most of the vague uneasiness and fears that I have about ID cards.
Here’s a thought, however. Suppose that Mr X is both a passionate opponent of ID cards, and a passionate europhile. What does he do if the EU says that we must have ID cards? Something would have to give!
110. Now given all that was already in NI, I didnt hear too many people who are now complaining about ID cards and the associated big brother concept moaning about it. Where were the Tories who seem to knock on abotu big brother and so forth then? Often in government administering all these measures and quote rightly too.
ID cards are simply a measure to bring rapid and easy assistance to identification for any number of reasons. The systems to analyse citizens actions are already there but few are actually linked. Its how they are used thats critical and in my own experience in Northern Ireland the answer was they werent analysed in any detail unless you were a problem case of a criminal kind.
78.
“CCTV in your house. If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear. ”
Will they pay us when the output is used as sex-training for John Prescott?
85.
“David Davis got into a fight . . .warning them not to tender for the contract ”
If you peek at Guido, Mr Davis is not the man to go to for contracts for the tender!
116, Gladstaone - thanks.
On the “europhile” vs ID cards …
Well. If you are an EU fan, what would you do if the EU lurched in authoritarian directions? Would you follow the EU away from your liberal values, or would you regretfully regard the EU as “what might have been”? Of course, working to shift the EU back in the direction that you want it to go is an option, but if it lumbers towards authoritariansim, that in itself reduces the capability of sheperding it back by democratic means.
What I’m meandering about above is: with that dichotomy, one would have to choose an authoritarian EU or a libertarian absence of EU. For me, an authoritarian EU would not win the day …
110/117. When ID cards were brought in during the Second World War there wasn’t any clear end in sight there either, but it was still accepted it was a temporary measure brought as the fighting would presumably be over one day, just like in Northern Ireland. The proposals from the current government have clearly not been an “I hate to do this but this is needed for the current Islamist terror threat and when it goes away we’ll remove it” basis.
And if you’re going to be pedantic about it, no you’re “every move” isn’t checked but every time an ID request is made from the central database it will be permanently recorded. I assume once we live in this ID-database society we will frequently be required to use this universal ID card every time we need to prove our identity for every service needing it. With access to that information, it wouldn’t be hard for goverments to record anyone’s daily movements. You’re right that basic information systems need to be in place but its a case of how intrusive it is. It should be kept to the bare minimum. The current government has clearly made it clear it wants complete centralisation, and thus a heck of a lot of civil servants being able to look at the database for a hell of a lot of reasons. I’m sure there will be official channels that you have to go through to request information, but do you really think with this massive central database in place it won’t be possible for those intent on getting this information from bypassing these channels. If you think that every major newspaper in the country doesn’t have an inside man on most government databases to get the information when they need it for a good story, you’re seriously naive. This central database (which will be the most intrusive in human history, and that’s no exagerration) will not just be accessed by the government but those with enough desire will be able to get information off it, whether its the News on Sunday or the Church of Scientology.
tjm. What central database?
113 - Two d’s in Tweeddale Jack! Somehow I don’t think we’ll be losing DCT anytime soon!
Re 106, Andy Cooke, Great post, particularly pointing out the dangers of ID cards as proposed to the state.
Re 112, Jonathan, I do like Dr Who!
I know Tony Blair stood on a platform that was pro-CND in 1983 - but that was 24 years ago.
Trouble with Cameron, is that he stood on a pro-ID card manifesto just 2 years ago. And the Tories only started to oppose them when they saw the escalating costs. Don’t quite trust Cameron on this one. Wouldn’t vote tactically Tory on grounds of civil liberties.
Hoping Gordon will scrap the cards anyway. It may be a bit of a humiliation for new Labour, but if it happens then it should be applauded. And I think it will!
126. If the cards were issued free the heat will go out of the debate for 90%% of the population.
Re 126, SBS, To be clear, the Home office has always been in favour of ID cards, no party has ever been intrinsically in favour of them, but from time to time a politician goes “native”.
The national Government brought them in for WW2 and possibly reasonably too. Labour did not scrap them the next Conservative government did.
The Conservative party has been against ID cards outside of wartime for time immemorial. The only exception to that was a Home Secretary going native at the home office, who got told to f*ck off when he was a minister, and only got it as the party line whilst he was leader.
Even then there was much heat generated.
So don’t try and portray the Conservative party as pro ID card when it seems to be a very small minority.
126.”Don’t quite trust Cameron on this one.” So you don’t trust the leader of the opposition who is opposed to ID cards, and his voting record supports this. But on the other hand you are hoping that Gordon who has been running domestic policy for 10 years will have a major U turn and scrap them even though it might be a bit humiliating.
SBS If I recall aright Blair’s first manifesto looked like something even Michael Foot might have rejected. I have no online reference sadly.
127 - very true, one almost suspects a Machiavellian plan to swing public opinion round at a later date by deciding to make them free.
Of course, if everyone has to have one, we all pay anyway - though some much more than others.
Re 127, Yokel, I think that those who object do not do so on price at all.
I think those who are in favour do so without knowledge of price and if they knew they would object, but furthermore they would start going off the deep end if and when they keep needing to produce said card, as was the case last time we had one.
Been out all day so just catching up. A few responses:
- Most people involved in the debate agree the issue is not the card (which will be optional) but the register (which is likely to become compulsory in practice - everyone with driving licences, passports, etc. will be included).
- The register as currently proposed has little that is not already registered on Government and private computers about us, except the identifying fingerprints to prove you are who you say you are. A neutral question that divides supporters from opponents is whether you find it sensible or worrying that it’s stored in one place. Another is whether more data should later be added (e.g. blood group or allergies), making it either more useful or more worrying, according to your basic view of the idea.
- The card being voluntary doesn’t stop the register being useful to check identity. The card is just a quick way to prove identity in low-security situations, and if people don’t want to bother with it, I don’t think they should have to.
- If the card ever became compulsory, it’s generally assmued that it will be free. As Aaron notes, that merely means it’d be paid for through taxation.
- Very few politicians of any party displayed strong personal views when I proposed it, and I had to get a friend who didn’t particularly oppose the idesa (Roger Casale) to speak against it, in order to get any kind of debate. My Bill was supported by a range of Tories and by the LibDem spokesman on the issue (Mark Oaten)as well as a range of Labour colleagues; equally it was opposed by (more) people in all parties. Nobody seemed to feel very strongly (I don’t even feel very strongly myself - I think they’d be useful, not the key to paradise). It’s only recently that the parties have made support or opposition a supposedly passionate belief, and I’d expect a Tory government to find reasons not to drop them in practice once they’d been introduced.
133. “Another is whether more data should later be added (e.g. blood group or allergies), making it either more useful or more worrying, according to your basic view of the idea.”
Oh dear, we are now using the emotive argument of life saving information. Considering one my of biggest concerns is the ability of the government to process and secure information this knowledge will not stop someone nicking my identity, but at least they will know what blood group I am or if I am allergic to dogs. The government might then be able to make a recommendation on how much I might cost the health service.