The Brown Era - the opening prices
June 27th, 2007
Will he lead Labour to a fourth victory
This post is partly for the record so that we can refer back to what the betting prices on the next general election were within Gordon’s first hour at Number 10.
I must admit that I cannot read this and I have now closed down the buy spread bet on Labour which I bought a month ago at 271 seats.
Will he do it? Will Cameron return to the early form? I’m not risking anything at the moment.
Mike Smithson
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Most seats market - I matched bets at 1.98 on the Cons yesterday - they’ve blipped down since.
Many thanks for the article Mike, looks like you got a good bet, and no I can’t see which way sentiment is going to ride for the next few montsh either.
On the William Hills 10/1 against Labour losing either Ealing Southall or Sedgefield, correct me if I am wrong but that is like saying that if Labour lose Ealing Southhall they will give you £10 for every £1 staked, am I right?
If so, taht looks like a good bet as the Liberal Democrats have got to have a better chance than that surely?
2 - Some people would think that with the Libs at 12% in the polls (with YouGov), and the Tories a close 3rd in the seat it won’t be possible even for m’lud Rennard. Personally I would just point to Dunfirmline and Bromley and say ‘Don’t ever write off the Libs’
the 10/1 is in the list of brown related bets. you have to hope he doesnt withdraw all troops from iraq or call a G.E. before the by-elections take place. i think 10/1 is good value, but my heart wont let me back against labour
3. Byelections are a thing on their own, current overall polling standings are not related IMO
5 - I agree, my point is simply that lots of others will (naively) factor that point in.
Re 6, Lennon, like William Hill.
Basically I see value in that. 10/1 for the Liberal Democrats to take Ealing Southall looks value to me. Peter the Punter seemed to think now. Why?
4 - yes you have to be a little careful. The only other one that looks a serious possibility before the by-elections is that he might announce troop withdrawl from Iraq.
I’ve put a wodge on Labour losing a by-election and covered myself by betting on the troop withdrawl.
The odds on the Lib Dems winning Dunfermline were around the 12-1 mark for most of the campaign enabling a few of us to make a packet. Personally I think the backdrop to the Southall by-election is much more favourable for the Lib Dems than when they went for Dunfermline.
Any odds anywhere on Chris Patten for FS ?
8. One potential unpredictable thing about ES is some kind of “ethnic politics” in a seat with a large BME population. Candidates selected can have an impact on it too
9 - I think CP would make a great FS. Really knew how to get on with those Chinese!
7 Benedict - I think I misunderstood the bet, but I can’t find it on Hills site. Can you help?
When do we expect to hear who’s in the cabinet?
Darling at 1.02
Hope I watch the right thread this time!
13. Mike Sole, I think the Chancellor is expected to be announced today and the rest tomorrow. Not sure on the Home Secretary though
Sources tell the BBC we will get the Chancellor and maybe the Home Secretary today, the rest of the Cabinet posts tomorrow.
13. Darling today then the rest tomorrow from what I understand Mike.
I’d better stay near the phone then! (Well it would make it a cabinet of all talents!)
Re 12, Charlie is your man. He found it, I walk to my bookies.
Re: 16,
It’s noticeable that the FS is not to be announced until tomorrow. Does this add weight to the possibility that the “big surprise on Thursday” that Ed Balls leaked about (with most of us assuming a bigger defection than the hapless QD) could be Rifkind? His desire to return to the Foreign Office is well known - could an offer of this post from Brown be enough to tempt him to walk the floor?
Re 12 Peter the Punter, Charlie is your man. He found it, I walk to my bookies.
Sky rumours: Miliband for Foreign Office, Beckett in tears, Hewitt has said farewell…
Ming Campbell 1/7 as leader to go first. Value? Probably a bit too tight for value.
If Ming hangs on to the next election, and Brown loses, it may be down to the definitions of “going first”. I would have thought that Brown would resign first (and I think he would resign if he lost), but Ming would be replaced first as the mechanics for a new LD leader are simpler.
If Ming hangs on to the next election, and Brown wins, Cameron may well not resign.
Can’t see either Cameron or Brown going before the next election barring personal reasons, so bet looks a dead cert if Ming goes before the election. I would rate the chances of Ming going first at about 80%, so the odds are not quite good enough, but the 1/5 on offer recently looked nearer the mark.
re 8. The “Labour losing a by election” from the list of what will happen first to GB looks great value at 10/1. I got a £100 on.
I wonder if it includes council by election…???
22.”Beckett in tears”
why is she crying? She should have expected a potential loss of the Foreign Department
Sky(Adam Boulton): rumours of second Tory MP defection, can’t give name but he was seen “nodding vigorously” at Tony Blair’s statement on Monday (?)
Re 24, Mike, sorry what exactly is the bet?
25. Shortest reign as FS ever ?
This is of course the Same Sky TV that called the Dep LEader race for Alan Johnson.
Everyones just guessing.
Interestingly, BBC are reporting that Lobby has been told that Patricia Hewitt is standing down.
28. Isn’t that John Major?
Hills are offering 10/1 that Labour will lose EITHER one of the two Westminster by elections.
So if Lab win both you lose.
If Lab win 1 or 0 you win.
Hence why I think its worth a punt.
20 - Rifkind could cross the floor. An anti-war FS would be good. Rifkind used to have a reputation as a Europhile but he tempered that considerably when reaching high office, leaving him probably not far from where Gordon is on Europe.
Although reselected, he is deeply unpopular in his constituency, and perceived as past it. Kensington and Chelsea (both as one seat and two) has had a succession of odd MPs. Dudley Fishburn (stood down as he saw it as a part time job), Nick Scott (collapsed in gutter drunk), Alan Clarke (who had already retired as an MP once), Michael Portillo (lost appetite for politics),… and now Rifkind.
Rifkind is sharp, forensic, and Scottish (ah!).
On another note, to have an anti-Iraq war Jewish Foreign Secretary probably puts Rifkind in a very strong position with regard to helping sort out the Middle East. He would, I hope, be trusted on all sides - more than say Tony Blair…
Unusually, some bookies appear to be offering better than 2.06 on Lab most seats (though check the small print). I would say these are the value bets today…if you have an account and can avoid tying up your money.
Even better value is 1.27 on Federer to reach final on B/F. Given he’s 1.41 to win, I think that implies something like 90% chance of him winning a final, if he gets there. Obviously too high, so a mismatch between the two markets. Either take this or lay Fed on the win market, according to your judgement. I took some of the former but there is still £300 left for PB punters. that’s 81 quid for, what, 10% chance of loss or injury before final?
Patricia Hewitt resigns as Health Sec!
34 - I wasn’t aware we’d had a health sec for the last couple of years.
Perhaps I could also suggest
CoE - Peter the punter
Foreign Secretary - Chris(from Paris) to job share with Andrea
Scottish Secretary - Jack W
Minister for Blogs - Benedict White
Home Secretary - SeanT
Minister for the Regions - Sean Fear
re 34 are you sure…sacked, I would have thought!
31 - Actually I think you need to be sure you know the bet, although it sounds a great one - my understanding (although I can’t check this as I’m behind a firewall) is that Hills have a list of ‘What will happen 1st under Gordon Brown?’ at differing prices, of which Labour losing a by-election is 10/1. Now if he withdraws troops from Iraq, or calls a General Election before a by-election then you would lose. Conversely, if Labour won both by-elections, but then another MP died such that there is a third by-election in, say December, then that could potentially win the bet if the other things have not happened.
Will Brown win a 4th term for Labour.
Interesting question - From what i have seen today i would not put any money on Brown calling an election and winning in the near future.
I think Blair still outshined Brown by a huge amount today. People mistake Blair’s election winning charesma for the contamination of Iraq. If i were a Labour MP or activist i would interdict Blair on that train where he was spotted intermingling umungst the people and beg him to come back before he quits his seat (Assuming he has not done it already and he is going theough the motions).
Certainly Brown’s entrance to number 10 while dignified failed to ignight or set the touch paper going in the way Blair did in 1997. I don’t mean the people waving flags and all that crap. I mean what Brown actually said and the delivery (Not impressed!). I would say i was impressed that he did it off the cuff though.
I think Brown was also hoping that Blair would bring up the defector in the commons with Cameron. I heard beckitt mention it and Brown said ‘Nevermind’!!!!
:lol: 
I have noticed that MP’s and now former cabinet ministers have tried bringing it up also and the media are not really interested. Think that trick has lost it’s potency.
20. I was interested in the Malcolm refkind contribution - I doubt Brown would want another Scot even if he has an English seat, I think soon to be abolished as of today! So he has nowt to lose, just hope if he goes he has not got the baggage Davies had!!!
Can anyone verify Pimpernels age?
28. Marquess of Reading (Rufus Isaacs) was FS for only 10 weeks in 1931…
Major did it for what 6 months?
40. I’ll put a £1000 down that he is under 25…..oh actually i won’t
42. I think it was 3 IIRC.
If not a very short time!
43. Boom boom!
42. He was only Chancellour for about a year - that is why it is so different this change in PM now to then. It was a case of Major - Who???!!!
Apparently the ex-Soviet states did not even have a file on him. I bet they did on Brown though!!! 
rumour Bercow will join Cabinet as Overseas development, but REMAIN a Tory MP !!
A thought just flashed…does the chancellor have to be a member of the government?
47. If true bloody silly idea!
48. You thinking Bercow for Chancellor ?
48. Yes, but i think what you are saying is a member of the Labour party. Probably not but it would be very odd to oppoint somebody as an Chancellour (MP - being on the opposing side!!!!).
47. I was just thinking that if Refkind were to be FS he could remain a Tory. Cameron could “lend” his talented MP to Brown for this role. It could work well for both parties and make the LDs look silly for dismissing the idea earlier.
47. I’m not sure how that can fly, something would have to give.
36 CofE, Mike?!!
You really want the national debt going on the first favorite at Kempton??!!!
One of the options on will hill’s what will happen first is a referendum to LEAVE the Euro?
What is taht about?
52 - not a chance after Brown’s comments to the NEC this week.
35.”34 - I wasn’t aware we’d had a health sec for the last couple of years”
Constitutionally, has the whole government resigned today or just Tony Blair? So in those hours between Blair’s resignation and Brown’s appointment of his government, are the previous ministers still ministers?
Some hours ago on Sky Yvette Cooper seemed unsure if she was still currently the housing minister or if she has resigned along with the whole government
Rifkind is a tribal tory, he’d never defect in a million years.
Bercow on the other hand…
I do think the PM and his central cabinet should be directly elected. Maybe Brown will suggest this due to his lack of electoral mandate?
If Brown can get people to defect for government jobs, fair play to him but they will only be seen as fig leaves to cover his modesty!!!
It does not say much for somebody after 10 years in Govt that they try and con people into a sort of quasi- national government does it?!
The Hon Member for Mid Sussex has allegedly crossed the floor much akin to one of his forebears….footage of the aftermath as he sat down on the Government benches can be seen here > http://146.74.224.231/archives/sf%20earthquake.jpg
phew - dragged that out
54. Why not?
47, you must be hallucinating, surely? Would he vote with the government or with the opposition?? Cabinet collective responsibility? Party whip?
47: ‘rumour Bercow will join Cabinet as Overseas development, but REMAIN a Tory MP !!’
Out of interest. Is there anything in the Labour constitution that would debar a former member of a far-right group such as the Monday Club from becoming a member?
Beckett in tears? Very implausible - she’s one of the toughest people in politics.
Those Cantor figures are still assuming a big Lab->Con swing of 60-70 seats IIRC - looks a bit like Tory punters betting with their hearts at this stage, though obviously it’s possible.
Re 60, Jimbo, Oi, leave my MP alone!
64. As your seat is probably one of those 60-70 I’d perhaps look closer to home for a heart over head moment.
64. Did not see you in the commons today! Last week you were bobbying up and down a lot trying to catch speakers eye and looked well hacked off!
This is a serious question, do they ever let you ask a question - If not why do it? I can never understand!
61 Hmm…well I suppose that one way or other, Mike, it would end all the country’s economic problems. If it wins, endless cash. If it loses, we go broke and sell the country to the highest bidder.
Has its upsides.
63, no - everyone has the right to change their mind!
I think I’m right in saying that there is a case of a BNP councillor defecting to Labour after saying they were duped and didn’t realise what the BNP were really about.
If Pimpernel returns, check my post and confirm that this is the rough basis of the bet that you are looking at.
With a minor bit of jigging we may be able to do something.
heard a rumour Chris Patten will be given a Cabinet job?
Confirmed that Blair becomes UN Envoy. Another winning bet for PBers!
Another hat-tip to Caveman too.
Please could we have a bit of a reality check? I know it is possible to get a bit excited on here, but I think a bit of rational analysis is called for.
There is slightly less chance of Malcolm Rifkind defecting to the Labour Party than there is of one of Nick Palmer’s cats winning this year’s Women’s Final at Wimbledon. It just ain’t gonna happen. The man is a Tory from tip to toe, has not had any great falling out with his party, is widely admired within it and has not been sidelined.
67: Martin - the way it works is that the Speaker calls you if he sees you’ve been making a persistent effort over half a dozen weeks - he may, but is unlikely to, call you sooner. You can also put in for a random draw, and about half the questions are people who come up lucky in that. In addition the Speaker always alternates backbenchers.
The printed questions are the ones who won the draw. So if e.g. Qs 6 and 7 are both down as Labour backbenchers, an Opposition backbencher of the Speaker’s choice (i.e. one of those who’ve been trying for several weeks) will get called in between them.
Hope that helps. I don’t always bother with PMQ (usually such a pointless beargarden) but get called now and then.
I was just looking at the times piece on the defection - It looks like it took 10 weeks to come to fruition. Which means that Davies voted against Brown in a no confidence vote after he started talks on defection. Men of Principle
exert: About ten weeks ago, Mr Davies went to see Mr Brown for a chat about various economic issues.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1991075.ece
70 Will do, Yokel.
74. Yes very helpful sorry about the comment imbertween not aimed at you!
I could never understand this up and down and not being called that sheds some light on things!
50 No, I’m thinking a non politician - high status banker of some sort. Probably ridiculous idea but….
In addition to the picks identified earlier by various contributors, 5/1 Brown to leave office in 2010 (WH) also looks a fair punt.
78.
“high status banker”
Your cockney rhyming slang implies another Tory MP?
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/newsroom_and_speeches/press/2007/press_72_07.cfm HM Treasury confirms appointment of Anthony Charles Lynton Blair to the Chiltern Hundreds.
78. What central banker like Mervyn King or Eddie George (I think he is probably past it!). There would be merit in it. But why if everything is so good would he need to get an outside appointment in.
My view is they should only appoint from within a party. This is because some MP’s have to sacrifice or waterdown not only their own opinion but maybe not represent their voters in the way they had intially whished to do so. Why should these people follow policies not in the manefesto they were elected on if they have no chance of office? If i had been an MP and defended on occasion the indefenceable and then seen some chancer who may not even be elected either on the platform the government put before the electorate or even to elected office i would be a bit hacked off!!!
Any chance of Hewitt or anyone else chucking it all in? Tony B may need a bag-carrier or two.
81: Oh, I thought he was going to be peace envoy to the Middle East.
82 Martin, it happens all the time! Look at the recent appointments to the House of Lords for sveral good examples. MiLords Sainsbury, Levy and Falconer have never, as far as I am aware, stood for elected office. But there they are, in Government jobs of one sort or another.
Sky tipping July 18th for by-elections…
84 - Not sure if that is a serious comment, but see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_from_the_British_House_of_Commons and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiltern_hundreds for an explaination
86. Not much time for the oppo to mount a serious campaign !
64 Nick I agree with you the spreadfair market ( and betfair ) only makes sense when you realise that most of the money comes from tory inclined dealer types. It is always important to try and divorce personal hopes from a dispassionate analysis but it is not always easy. Labour is under priced ( relative to the current polls )on both markets at the moment but as Mike says the next few weeks are very unpredictable. I have taken the view that I should keep some of my positions as even on a bad outcome for labour, less than 270 seats seems unlikely and if the polls go bad for labour it is easy to close the positions with little exposure but on balance I do think labour is still underpriced and so positions under 280 are good longer term value ( especially as an account at spreadfair requires no initial deposit ).
I hope Nick Palmer’s phone is turned on!
There is a wonderful irony that one of Brown’s last acts in office as Chancellor was to appoint TB to the stewardship. I wonder if he enjoyed signing that piece of paper?
86 That’s a Wednesday. Unusual for a by-election - Thursday 19 would be more likely.
87: Thanks for that, but twas on a feeble joke on my part.
Three Hundreds of Chiltern
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed the Right Honourable Anthony Charles Lynton Blair to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern.
I’m amazed Brown didn’t think of doing it years ago
OK, not a good idea then (-: If you feel that the economy should rest upon whether someone has been elected, been loyal and is part of the clan.
Just thinking of “government of all the talents” and fact that chancellorship is probably the most important job. Hope Darling is up to it. Have to admit, don’t know a lot about Darling. Will go and do some internet research.
I wonder how Blair applied for the job? Did he have to fill in a Form, provide a CV and two referees and write a short piece about why he thinks he would be a great Steward & Bailiff? was he interviewed?
sorry, my 95 comment was directed at 82
95.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/370000/images/_374343_captain_darling.jpg
96 “was he interviewed”
Ah but was it under caution?
Surely the position should have been advertised in the European Gazette?
86 - Thursday is the 19th - and must be the earliest possible date.
I’m sure the sandalwearers are dusting down their bar charts as we speak.
88 re the by-election dates makes sense from labour party point of view to have them asap to give Chris Rennard and co as little time as possible to push dodgy bar charts. Getting candidates in place is going to be a bit of rush to say the least. Does anyone know if the funeral of Piara Khabra has been held ( parliamentary tradition is that the writ for a by election is not moved until the funeral of the previous mp has happened )
Blinky 4s for chancellor , Captain Darling out to 1.11
80 It’s “merchant banker”, Wage Slave. Cockney rhyming slang, one of the few things I know something about.
Am I the only one to have noticed that Cameron request a general election now?
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=137317
What do PBers make of that?
If David Curry does cross the floor, it’ll make a bloody great mess of the political map of northern England. Such a huge constituency, and next door to William Hague’s massive expanse of blue, it makes Tory representation in northern England look rather better than it really is.
And the Labour vote in Skipton and Ripon is tiny, it would like having a Tory MP in Govan or a Liverpool seat.
As far as I know, Curry IS a real lefty-pinko Tory, but I think he’s been a Tory MP since 1970, or longer. The Tory Party must have been part of his life for decades, and he’s not (unlike QD) been made to look a bit of a fool in Parliament by his party leadership of late (as far as I know), so I can’t think why he’d suddenly go now.
I think this is idle mischief. Davies is a freak, an oddball, a toff joining a party that despises everything he stands for (save for the EU). It’s just one of those things, and it reflects worse on Gordon for having him than Cameron for losing him.
Anyone else going - that’s a political earthquake. I’m bracing myself…
101. Tony Blair’s former constituency agent pushing for the 19th, the next week parliament breaks up.
On who might be in the cabinet, what about Geoffrey Robinson returning?
BBC also reports that Beckett is out as Foreign Secretary
106 - another thought, what about that Europhile Tory MP in south Devon (is it Totnes?), he’s getting on a bit and has been fending off a LibDem/UKIP pincer movement on his seat, plus I think the local Tories tried and failed to replace him.
Or Sir Patrick McCormick? Has the saga of him being de-selected by his local Tories been resolved yet? He’s a One Nation, pro-Europe Tory isn’t he?
I think a major Tory will be part of the team somewhere- contenders include Rifkind, C Patten but my bet will be Portillo as defense secretary. A veritable coup
Old Carp’s Almanac solemnly predicts that there will be no further defections this week.
107 - he says he does want a job and wouldn’t be offered one.
110 - Portillo? Come off it. Just cos he slagged off Cameron in the paper the other day? He isn’t even in the Lords, never mind the Commons!
113 - wouldn’t be a defection anyway, as Portillo has surely already ceased to be a Conservative. He always refers to Tories as “they” (but then so do I… ;-)), and presents himself as the independent voice of reason. Except when caught off guard on This Week when he accidentally says “We..” then quickly corrects himself to “The Tories…”
Fool.
110 - what a stupid comment!!! He is not an MP or Peer. And the post is Defence Secretary NOT Defense. Even Blair did not Americanise us that much!
Can we have a dose of common sense please?
This is one of those days I miss being in England. All the nostalgia and sentimentality looks rather odd from afar. Still, given his new job at least we know why TB gave the Saudis a free pass over the BAE affair.
re 34 what a shame - if anyone dervered the sack it’s her.
I still don’t understand exactly why Cameron called for a general election this afternoon. Is it a way to call Gordon’s bluff?
115 - Rik W - “Can we have a dose of common sense please?”
Say that to yourself in the mirror each morning. It might help with the condition.
109. Yes, Totnes. Anthony Steen. I could see it, but Labour’s vote is pitiful there (12%).
115 The Cabinet is a Committee of the Privy Council so theoretically Gordon can appoint any Privy Councillor to its membership; though in practice a non MP would be granted a peerage so as to be available in Parliament.
Gordon has been quoted twice in recent days as confirming to Labour audiences that “all the talents” means “all the Labour talents”. Surely he wouldn’t say one thing and do another? Not Spin Free Gordon.
115 - Rik W - Can we have a dose of common sense please?
Or a list of all those MPs about to defect to the Tories Rik?
118. I think that Cameron is the one bluffing, and if so he is being very shrewd. The last thing that the Conservatives want is an election with Brown in his honeymoon period. The more that you make it appear that you want an election, the more doubt that you put in Gordon’s mind (What are they up to? Have they some good private polls? etcetera). If you make it look as if you don’t want an election, you appear weak, and persuade Gordon to seize the moment.
re several
Charles James Fox 1782 (100 days)
Earl Temple 1783 (4 days)
Earl Bathurst 1809 (56 days)
Earl Granville 1851/2 (63 days)
Lord John Russell 1852/3 (55 days)
Marquess of Reading 1931 (103 days)
Patrick Gordon Walker 1964/5 (98 days)
John Major 1989 (93 days)
the case of PGW is particularly interesting as he was the only Labour MP to lose his seat in the 1964 election, Wilson made him Foreign Sec nonetheless and he lost the subsequently created by-election.
I’ve heard that tomorrow’s defector is Andrew Pelling…
re 57, Andrea, TB resigned his entire government so in effect there are no ministers
119 - Stonch you really are an obnoxious prat!
126. Thanks Chris.
125 - Dan - no you havent! You are mischief making!
re 81. Eh? We don’t have a CofE at the moment
129 - only passing on what I’ve heard from my Tory mole,
re 115 RIk I refer you to my post above, sveral cabinet ministers have been appointed being neither an MP or peer. AFAIK neither are requirements for the job.
Rik W: Remember posting this?
On the defection point, maybe, just maybe, some of us have been asked to talk about it less in order not to jeapordise sensitive discussions that may or may not be taking place!
by Rik W January 27th, 2006 at 8:47 pm
or this?
Lets all wait for the first MP defection then we can have fun, whoever he or she may be!
by Rik W January 28th, 2006 at 8:02 pm
125 Andrew Pelling - really? This would be a double gain for Labour, since he also sits on the London Assembly.
A former investment banker, he was one of the 18 Tory MPs who voted for the amendment to the Freedom of Information Act which exempted MPs from it’s provisions.
Says it all, really . . .
For the Tories, this would be more “addition by subtraction”.
124. Reading (Isaacs) was shorter than that. 72 days if my sums are right.
131 Mole, Dan? I am extremely interested in moles.
Care to elaborate?
132 - Chris A - I have not seen your comment but I would be surprised to see anyone who is not currently an MP or Peer appointed directly to the Cabinet. They would have to be given a peerage to get them into Parliament.
131 - knowing Andrew Pelling personally I would be stunned if he defected. I do not believe that he will and time will tell. There is too much silly speculation without foundation at the moment.
re 135. Rod you’re right I’ve added an extra month in by mistake.
132.But *if* IIRC Portillo was not only a former Defence minister but also a former director of BAE which would definitely rule him out whether he was an MP, Lord or neither?
Rik W accusing people of engaging in ’silly speculation’ - LOL!!!
130. And picking up on a point up-thread, whether we have ministers currently in place depends on what Tony Blair said to the Queen. As he is handing over to a successor in the same party, there is no need to resign the government, just as PM. As such, the other ministers can stay in place until Gordon makes his appointments. The chancellorship is a slightly special case though as it’s where Gordon’s come from.
20 etc. Re the possibility of Malcolm Rifkind resigning the Conservative whip this parliament - there’s got to be a possibility: he’d make an excellent speaker. No chance that he’ll join Labour though.
133 - bally eric - yep we can all drag up postings! I freely admit that I did not anticipate one of ours going over to Labour but I do know that three Lib Dems WERE in discussion with the Conservative party at the time I posted that. The Kennedy resignation and Ming’s election then intervened!!
Come on guys, don’t start a war about tittle tattle on potential defectors
re 137. Rik it’s 124 Patrick Gordon Walker was foreign secretary for 98 days in 1964/5. For all that time he was neither an MP or a peer. Alec Douglas-Home was Prime Minister from 23rd October to 8th November 1963 being neither an MP or peer.
Don’t forget there are two by elections pending and who can say how many more after today and Bliar’s resignation honours list.
Fraser Nelson on Spectator Blog “The upshot: no reshuffle news till tomorrow lunchtime. No outsiders in the Cabinet, it seems: Mr Ellam says we will only see what Mr Brown means by “a government of all the talents” when the ministers of state are named on Friday. ”
So wait for Thursday was perhaps either Mr Balls stirring the rumour mill, some defection unrelated to a Cabinet post (so unlikely to be a big beast) or possibly an appointment to some Gordon Brown study group (Mandela to …Bill Gates to…)
141 Speaker?? Now you’re talking. Rifkind would be a great Speaker, but then so would anyone who replaces Gorbals Mick.
For those on the 14/1 shot with Hills, Fraser Nelson has been briefed “No outsiders in the Cabinet”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/
Perhaps I’m reading too much into it, but Balls was just on the news. He said that Brown would be ‘bringing in talent from um, er, ah… all parts of the country’. Not ‘other political parties’ as Brown said earlier. Wonder if a potential defector has changed his mind.
Righ O/t on newspapers. No surprise to see the FT bigging Davies up into the biggest thing since Churchill. No surprise since they backed Kinnock in 1992 iirc. But maybe a surprise amongst readership which I imagine includs a fair few Tories. Is there another paper that is on the face of it so at odds with apparently a large number of its own readers
Rik W “Even Blair did not Americanise us that much!”
Should that not be “Americanize”?
What is fun about this thread is that people only have to suggest the name of a Tory as someone who might possibly defect and all the Tories here immediately rubbish him. “Huh! HE’s an idiot.” “Hmph! HE’s past it!” “Pah! They’re welcome to HIM!”
Next step is to forward the comments to them all, whereupon they all defect in high dudgeon, having discovered what their colleagues think of them. Psst! I’ve heard that David Davis and George Osborne are about to defect, what do you have to say, chaps?
144. Oh c’mon Labour aren’t mad to give more targets for Chris Rennard aka Billy Bunter to aim at are they. Unless TB is being really vindictive. Lord Prezza perhaps then………….
149 The Sun
152/3 Sorry, fast finger problem!
The Sun’s readership were always supposed to be much more inclined to Labour than the Conservatives when it was peddling a relentlessly Tory line.
149. The FT is also absurdly pro-Europe at a time when Europe has just written OUT of its Constitution a commitment to a free market! Bet that went down well with its City readers. Though to be fair a couple of its columnists have just, for the first time, started questioning the EU project…
Back on topic, sorta. I may be in sultry Bangkok but I’m getting emails from mates in the UK saying the weather is terrible back home. One called it ‘the worst June I can remember’.
Superstition, of course, but remember what it was like the day Blair came to power? That sunlit promenade down a cheering Downing Street? Now Brown comes in and its dour, dreich and penitential Scots rain…
If we were Romans we’d say the auguries were bad. Like a bride who breaks a heel on her wedding day.
There must be more defections and better ones. If Quentin Davies was the only one, it would not have been done yesterday, but saved for today or tomorrow, or for the weekend.
Hills close the book on another Tory defection. Spokesman: “We fully expect an annoucement..” (Iain Dale’s Diary)
Has anyone else mentioned the WH odds on the Sedgefield by-election? Tories 25/1, Lib Dems 33/1. Don’t fancy the Lib Dems’ chances too much, but at those sorts of odds, I thought perhaps worth a tenner…? (I’ve already got £5 on Tory MP defecting to Labour, which was all the mean s*ds would let me have online before taking it off altogether) I’ve also risked a tenner on Labour losing a by-election before any of those other multifarious happenings (though that’s now down to 5/1). Last of the big spenders, me!
148. He was either stirring the pot or being stupidly indiscreet with his comment last night. Having said that if I was watching the way that the Davies defection was handled by Labour and the media’s reaction I might think twice. Davies wanted to stick the boot into Cameron, Brown used him as a PR stunt on the eve of becoming PM and the press smelt a rat about the end of spin and manipulation under Brown with the timing of the defection and the resignation letter.
151. Nick, I think that defections to any party always come with a sting in the tail for everyone. But to keeping whinging about “those nasty tories who did not wave him off with their hankies and a tear in their eye after giving him a going present” is hilarious. There is nothing more tribal than Scottish Labour politics, and should we ever see one of them going to the other side I would expect what you have witnessed here to seem very muted.
158. If it’s true they’re offering an either seat Lib Dem bet that’s fantastic value. I really think the Libs will bag one.Of the two for symbolic reasons I bet they’d love Sedgfield, but for practical ones I bet it’ll be Ealing Southall. If they then pulled both off all Lib Dems should build a golden statue to Chris Renard in Cowley street
152.”Oh c’mon Labour aren’t mad to give more targets for Chris Rennard aka Billy Bunter to aim at are they. Unless TB is being really vindictive. Lord Prezza perhaps then”
Prescott seems to want to carry as MP until next GE as he wants a place on UK delegation on Council of Europe (I think you’ve to be an MP to be part of the parliamentary delegation there).
Rumours were of Milburn going in Darlington
158. Managed to get £10 at 5/1. They had to take advice on phone before they took bet.
160: Punter: What I mean is that I’ve got in on the same bet people have been on about all afternoon: the selection of ‘events’ to take place under GB’s premiership — you bet on which one happens first. Labour to lose a by-election (it doesn’t specify parliamentary, but I guess that’s what it means… so either Ealing or Sedgefield would do, and indeed, any other party than Labour winning would, too) is at 5/1, and I think that’s pretty good (though not as good as the 10/1 earlier). Nasty chance of being trumped by announcement of a full troop withdrawal from Iraq (5/4), but still a decent bet, I think. And as I say, I think 33/1 on Lib Dems in Sedgefield is good, too.
Guido is claiming that Bercow has pulled out of a Party parliamentary dinner tonight. I think this is a ploy by the Tory Party to prevent GB calling a general election. Can you imagine the Queen, ‘Tell me Prime Minister why do you want a general election, with all of the defections you have a majority of 250, surely that’s enough to be going on with’
161 - Prescott better stay as an MP - I have money on him not being made a Lord before January ;-).
163.”Labour to lose a by-election (it doesn’t specify parliamentary, but I guess that’s what it means”
maybe someone can challenge them and claim the money if Lab lose Whaddon ward byelection for Milton Keynes council tomorrow night!
151. Nick Palmer to defect to the tories
!!!
OT. Captain Darling’s back price now out to 1.2 on Betfair to be next Chancellor. Not much money going down for anyone else though.
Who are these outsiders going to be in Brown’s cabinet? They’ll have to be pretty big names to make a splash, otherwise the publicity will be nil.
With that expectation plus one (or more?) defections to labour I would imagine that it will take a week or so to judge the success, or otherwise, of this ’shock and awe’ beginning of Brown’s reign. The expectation has been put at fever pitch so surely there must be a couple of really big announcements on the way. Personally I thought that policy was more important but there you go.
I’d bet on a statist tory defecting, one who has backed things such as invasions of privacy and of MPs not being subject to the same. Who fits that description? A bigger plus for lib dems could hardly have been possible.
What if they defect and think sod this?!!!
That woodward bloke had a face like a spanked arse this afternoon, when Blair went!
151. With all this talk of senior Tory defections, the danger for Team Brown is that it could all appear a bit of damp squib if the defector is Richard Younger-Ross being offered junior ministry of religious affairs. Seriously, though, there is always a danger that the spin gets out of control and an otherwise significant move - MP defection - is seen as a disappointment because the defector is not important enough.
So it’s Bercow? Not Pelling? Dan what is your source for Pelling, how reliable?
Not all MPs clapped Blair today in the Commons…Jeremy Corbyn: “I wasn’t expecting the ovation because it’s never really happened before. But I stood up at the end and didn’t clap and I think that was enough.”
Clapping Blair would be too much for him!
Just a quick thank you for all the posts this evening - stuck in Belfast with work so a fascinating window into the events of the day. A bit like 97 all over again I think, let’s all get swept up in the euphoria, then the first scandal that crops up will be same old brand new government + media coverage.
I’m not convinced that the timing of QD is proof of another imminent defection, yesterday it was a headline but tomorrow will all be about the cabinet surely?
And 10/1 on either by-election sounds good to me also. Possibly just what the LDs need after the locals and today’s poll.
167: you’ve tried that one before, Martin - I’ll defect to the Tories the day that every other party is illegal except the BNP - not before.
My understanding is that there is no resignation honours list, by the way. Avoids tiresome squabbles over it.
160. I don’t think the by-elections are that easy for the Lib-Dems. A lot of their campaigning over the last two or three years has been based around Blair’n'Bush. Gordon Brown just doesn’t have the same negative association with George Bush. How often did Brown and Bush give joint press conferences?
re 175 not even an KG for Bliar?
Why is everyone assuming the next defection will be a Conservative. They should be looking at the Lib Dems.
Margaret Beckett will not be Foreign Secretary anymore but she won’t do badly at all.
OK, I don’t often do this - and I have just has a splendid evening in Bangkok with lots of wine, so it may be affecting my judgement - but I just saw, on BBC World, the full coverage of the Blair farewell in the Commons.
It was indeed splendid theatre. And yes it was touching the way the whole House applauded him - kitsch, but touching. And there were some deft and witty touches, on both sides. And it was an honourable departure for a man who, we can all admit, has utterly dominated our politics for a decade and a half.
So I backtrack, somewhat - and I apologise to Test and others for calling them “immature, drooling, fawning, Blair-fellating fools”. That was perhaps a tad harsh.
Still, I thought Cherie’s final, nasty remark at the press was graceless, and Brown’s quoting of his school motto was just weird.
Gentlemen, start your engines.
164- “Tory Party to prevent GB calling a general election” actually they requested a general election this afternoon
Sean thanks for that post
“Still, I thought Cherie’s final, nasty remark at the press was graceless”
Some common ground!
&n