How 54% of voters will get the news this morning?
June 28th, 2007
What do today’s front pages suggest might happen?
Reproduced above are the front pages of the four main tabloids that will greet millions of people this morning. This includes those who buy the paper and those who just have fleeting glances at news-stands and in newsagents shops the length and breadth of the land.
The hostile front page of the Express compares with the welcome it gave Blair in 1997 and the support for Labour in 2001. But the paper is not what it was and has much less influence.
The Daily Mirror’s approach is entirely what was expected while the Sun remains tantalisingly non-committed.
The one interesting front page is the Mail whose editor, Paul Dacre, is a close friend of Brown’s. There’ll be disappointment at Number 10 about the negative tone which might be a pointer to the future.
According to YouGov’s newspaper readership ratings these tabloids and their Scottish counterparts are read each day by 54% of all GB voters. By contrast the other nationals - the FT, Times, Indy and Telegraph - are seen by just 13% with the balance not being regular readers of a national paper at all. There’s a lot to play for.
The main betting story of Brown’s first day has been a market launched yesterday afternoon by William Hill on “what will happen first during Brown’s first term”. Eagle-eyed PB-ers spotted the 10/1 that was available against Labour losing a by election. Given the other possibilities listed in the market this looked like a great bet especially as we have contests at Ealing Southall and Sedgefield coming up.
Clearly the money started piling on and by the close of business last night the price had tightened to 5/1. Let’s hope that the bookmaker puts it up again this morning.
Mike Smithson
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Yes influential, but surely there’s a lot of people who only watch TV or use the internet and never see these front pages? The on-line version of the Mail is showing headline ‘New broom Brown wields the axe’ right now so thanks for those! I’m in Canada at the moment so don’t get to see them.
Re the Mail: It’s the EU, stupid.
I mean that rhetorically, Mike
Dacre really wants his referendum. Remember last time he was so angry about the Constitution the Mail actually organised its OWN plebiscite, with boxes all over the country (2million voted).
Dacre won’t give his whole-hearted approval, or even much approval at all - until and unless Brown gives in. Same goes for the Sun. People consistently underestimate the passion of tabloid euroscepticism, I’m not sure why. It’s not some lightly-held passing fad. These guys really mean what they say. The editors also know that euroscepticism chimes with their readers’ beliefs.
But I think the papers will keep their powder dry until next Spring, when the damn document starts going through the Houses. That’s when we’ll see the real battle. Until then expect sporadic euro sniping from the tabloids, and judgements generally withheld.
Congrats on the phenomenal popularity of the site, btw. How many posts yesterday? You are fast becoming THE political blog in the UK, if you aren’t already. I imagine many journos, MPs and activists must now read it. You used to report the political weather, now you are starting to make it.
Well, it’s not often one is proved satisfyingly and completely RIGHT three minutes after posting - but as soon as I logged off pb.com I went on to Google News (as you do when you are trying to avoid writing that difficult eleventh chapter of a thriller), and whart’s right at the top?
This main leader from today’s The Sun. Prove Yourself on EU, Gordon.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2007290622,00.html
Like I say. The tabloids really mean this. Gordo has a nasty battle on his hands, and he must know it. He should give in gracefully, and reap the media rewards.
Hello err Solihull. I hope nothings happened to Lorely Burt. Do you mean Southall
O/T but Brogan says Rifkind denies defection rumours.
I agree with sean t above. Labour are making a mistake if they think the press or Cameron don’t mean it on a referendum.
re 4. Thanks. Corrected
By the way, what an utterly crap first speech yesterday by Brown. All commenters said how nervy he looked. Awful contrast to Blair. “Let the work of change begin.” Not snappy, is it? Especially when you’ve had ten years to change things already.
Isn’t that what he’s trying to do - avoid looking overly-smooth and polished and look reliable, trustworthy and so on? An end to spin and all that. A ‘now is not the time for soundbites but …’ moment wouldn’t have chimed in with the mood I think he’s after. Whether he’ll be able to get away with it is another matter - his last budget was just the best example that he’s as happy spinning as Blair, he’s just not as good at it.
BTW, Mike - bit cheeky to inlude The Express in the four tabloids given that its circulation is lower than either The Telegraph or The Times.
It’s surely to be expected that until Brown has a bit more of a record in No 10, the papers will hedge their bets, playing to their readerships general views while giving themselves a bit of wriggle room. The jobs of chancellor and PM are different in many ways and basing future expectations on his performance in the last job can only take anyone so far. Gordon hasn’t got that great a reception? Well no, Labour’s behind (just) in the polls and the national mood isn’t one of celebration; papers have to follow their readership rather more than they lead them.
Just back from hols in the evil European Union and feeling rather smug that Harriet won the DL leadership. Expect the patronising comments to continue (”Harperson” etc) but it won’t bother her a bit, nor will it harm Brown.
The cataclysmic Quentin Davies resignation shows how Europe still splits the conservatives. I was amazed to see Hefferlump’s article in yesterday’s daily telegraph - he is so pissed off with George Osborne that he described Davies, by contrast, as “honourable”. Yes, Gordon will have to play the press carefully but poor old Dave Cameron really has problems.
David, a solid speech of substance, delivered in a calm manner, would indeed have been great and backed up his perceived positives.
Not what he gave us - quoted the old school motto, threw in his soundbite as used on the front page of the Mirror, except it was a rubbish one - and instead of playing to his perceived strength of “strong” is described everywhere, including on the BBC by Nick Robinson, as “nervous”.
One bad speech does not a premiership make, of course - Thatcher’s was not that inspiring - but as Mike’s graphic shows, the press corps was underwhelmed, and post the amazing PMQs, it was a real “bubbles gone flat in the champagne” moment.
Already, without Tony, Labour’s looking lessened. CF: Daily Mail.
By the way, on the defection we all expect today. It needs to be somebody big, because Labour have failed in expectations management. Instead of a shocker we are all anticipating it, and big names ilke Rifkind were chucked around. He denied it. They need now to provide a real splash otherwise there’ll be another “oh well” feeling.
2. Why do politicians underestimate the tabloid euroscepticism? They dont, it’s more that they’re aware but ignoring it.
Essentially, it comes back to Baldwin’s point about what the press are aiming at when they launch political campaigns. Politicians have an electoral mandate - not a perfect one by any means, but a mandate nonetheless - newspaper editors and proprietors do not. They have sales figures to be concerned about, but all sorts of things contribute to those.
The EU is a particularly difficult subject. Benefits of membership are frequently taken for granted, not least because they now have little publicity, while the drawbacks are widely publicised. The EU is not infrequently its own worst enemy in providing ammunition. Arguing the pro-EU case is therefore difficult practically and of little reward electorally - so it doesn’t happen all that much. Even so, MPs - whose job it is to understand the issues better than the average voter - are more aware in general of the benefits it can and does bring than the man in the street.
The natural result is a position where MPs are ‘out of step’ with public opinion. Not a healthy situation.
The constitution / treaty under discussion at the moment is obviously the main case in point. The first thing to say is that there is still an IGC for it to go through, but assuming it comes out in more or less the same shape the tabloids will demand a referendum. Given that Labour promised one on the constitution, Brown really ought to concede it if the final treaty ends up like the first one.
It is perhaps slightly ironic that one of the biggest threats to handing over more powers to unelected bureaucrats comes from unelected plutocrats but therein lies the politicians’ difficulty and the domestic political basis for the need for democratic reform of the EU.
[9] I think it was Sean Fear who made the point yesterday that there is a generation of Tory MPs who have been denied their birthright of ministerial cars and bagmen and are consequently disgruntled. The 11th successive year of opposition is, after all, very much terra incognita for them: still, you’d think by now that they’d have the smell of victory in their nostrils and would be behaving accordingly. But they aren’t.
As to the referendum, surely it’s just code for populist xenophobia. Those who want one really want to quit the EU altogether. At least UKIP are honest about that.
Brown is, I daresay, pinching himself that he’s actually made it - I’m still trying to figure out why he spent a whole hour with HM - the cynic in me assumes they were capping each other’s stories about how awful Blair was…
2 (again). “Congrats on the phenomenal popularity of the site, btw. … I imagine many journos, MPs and activists must now read it”
On one of the evening bulletins (Beeb or Sky) they mentioned the possibility of another Tory defection and specifically mentioned the names Rifkind and Patten as being speculated about without saying there was any substance to the rumours. It may not be entirely coincidental that these two were prominent in the discussion on yesterday’s pbc threads. (Then again, it might be coincidental - the factors that raised those names in the first place are ones that any informed person could identify and apply).
Baghdad bomb kills dozens; Britain unprepared for a spot of weather; Henman struggles at Wimbledon; Teenager stabbed in London; 3 British soldiers die in Iraq; House prices still rising.
“New” Prime Minister - same old country.
Great exit by Blair yesterday - he really was masterful and Labour will miss his style and electability. He went with dignity and cheers, when he should have reaped shame and opprobrium.
Nervy entrance by Brown. What will be his “big” announcement to start his premiership?
Game on and everything now to play for for Team Cameron.
13 “Brown is, I daresay, pinching himself that he’s actually made it - I’m still trying to figure out why he spent a whole hour with HM - the cynic in me assumes they were capping each other’s stories about how awful Blair was…”
My guess is he has some big constitutional surprise up his sleeve.
Morning
15 The trouble is that “Team Cameron” is getting smaller every day!
re 2. Thanks for your kind comments about the site Sean. Yesterday we got over 1,000 posts and had 39,088 hits.
16 Abloish the monarchy maybe?
16 Abolish the monarchy maybe?
Go ahead! We’ll be the 1660 party
16 Robin - sounds like a good guess
I think Bangkok just got hit by a tornado. No joke. Absolutely extraordinary. 5 minutes ago blue skies - now a raging wind, which has smashed a tree down outside my hotel, and is shattering windows.
F*ck me.
16 - Well if he was going to change the way “Royal Prerogative” is exercised (or not, as the case may be), then I suppose that would be something to run through with the person whose Prerogative it is (technically, anyway).
An alternative is that he spent the time recounting facts and figures about his brilliant handling of the economy…
Quentin Davies will not stand in his seat at the next election.
Any more news about the supposed defector? After the opprobrium received by Mr. Davies, might they think twice?
23. Sean. The wind of change perhaps?
seanT, thanks for the Sun link - they are not pulling any punches:
Labour’s chortling welcome for Tory turncoat Quentin Davis — an avowed pro-Euro fanatic — gives us no cause for comfort.
The Tories are well shot of this grinning fool. Mr Brown should have thought twice before welcoming him aboard.
25 - may not last that long either if shunted into the Lords as part of the deal.
Mike - not sure the Mail’s front page is negative to Brown - I read the headline as being Gordon’s imagined words to Blair, not the Mail’s message to Brown. I have never understood, personal friendship aside, the logic behind a paper like the Mail being warm to Brown. I’m damned sure its readers aren’t, even if its editor is.
As to the public mood, certainly from the people I’ve spoken to in the past 24 hours - work colleagues mainly - I’ve not yet encountered the remotest bit of enthusiasm, interest or excitement from a single person about their new PM.
23 - continuing the weather theme, it’s interesting that since Brown took over, the north seems to have been bathed in sunshine whilst the south looked pretty damned grim and wet on the news/Wimbledon last night.
An omen perhaps…?
26. Indeed. You’ll be glad to hear I survived. It’s all calming down now. Sun to hurricane to sun in 5 minutes - the weirdest, most capricious 5 minutes of weather I’ve ever experienced. And I come from Cornwall.
27. Yes that Sun leader is a doozy. They’re not going to give up on the EU thing. It’s a shot across Brown’s jowly bows. If GB persists in not calling a referendum, I think he’ll lose the Murdoch papers. He may not care, of course. And he’d be wildly applauded by the Guardianistas for doing so.
Bob Sykes. This may seem like I am ganging up on you, but there genuinely is no personal axe to grind, but I don’t think that there was ever likely to be enthusiasm for Brown. But that is not the point of what he is setting his stall out to be is it?
The real point is, that Tony was a showman, right through to his standing ovation at the end, when he took his final curtain. But did he govern well? It is perhaps no coincidence that politics became less participated in a time when our PM tried to turn the whole thing into just one amongst many West End shows. Perhaps Brown can pull off the seemingly improbable (I am not predicting here, by the way) and make politics more interesting by removing the packaging and giving more of the product.
According to the Indy Hewitt has been offered a new department but turned it down for personal reason (she has a 90+ years old mother living in Australia). She will now chair a group to draw up Labour policy on Europe for the next election (so she would probably be under seant’s scrutiny)
Said it yesterday - I’ll say it again now - Brown will have LOADS of surprises up his sleeve. He’s been planning it for years. I know not what, but he will try and pull some clever stunts.
We have all underestimated him. Very stupid thing to do (and I include myself with that criticism)
However, I *really* hate this mans guts and the thought of him not being trounced at the next election makes my stomach turn. I can’t stand the thought of him being PM.
I can only hope that “Dave” is prepared for the whirlwind that is about to strike and has his strategy worked out, otherwise the Conservatives are out of contention.
The next 6-9 months (maybe even less??) will determine it all, barring a major “event” that intervenes otherwise.
31. “Did he govern well”? We had a dual premiership, and Blair’s biggest mistake was allowing Brown so much power in the treasury. I would say that Blair’s biggest handicap to governing well was Brown.
I notice betfair’s most seats market has changed overnight, labour is now favorite to win most seats ( lab 1.94, con 2.04 )
OT -the Plaid / Labour coalition in Wales would seem to be the best possible outcome for the Welsh Conservatives
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_headline=what-this-means-for-the-welsh-conservatives%26method=full%26objectid=19367057%26siteid=50082-name_page.html
It also completely sidelines the Lib Dems!
36 But how many of the Welsh Conservative MP’s and AM’s are going to defect to Labour ?
31. I hate to be a bore (well, usually) and I promise not to mention Europe again (today!), but the one simple way Gordon could increase participation, give back the government to the people, dispense with the spin and lies, and move on from the Blair years of broken promises, would be to.. yes… give us a vote on Europe.
With that one bold and moral move, he would outflank his opponents and show himself a man of mettle, morality and courage. And make politics decent once more.
I genuinely don’t understand the problem. It’s not like they have some moral aversion to referenda, they promised one on the euro and the Constitution. OK, he’d probably lose, but who cares - he’d win so much more. He could make it a snap one, too - call it in eight weeks time and be done with it.
If Brown doesn’t do this, we can only presume that all this stuff about being honest and spin-free and not lying and changing things is just so much guff from yet another devious careerist.
But it’s early days. Let’s wait and see.
35 It’s been out of sync for a long while, jgc. It’s now pretty much in line.
Gordon is going down extremely well in the Lib-Lab floating voter section of the electorate - they were fed up with what they saw as showbiz and charm covering policies they actively disliked, and they positively like the fact that GB makes unsparkly long speeches with few jokes; modest changes already announced like allowing protest in Parliament Square again are being eyed with a hopeful optimism that they’ve not felt for years. Some of them have been voting Labour with a clothes peg, some have voted LD or Green, but they’re coming back in droves, including lots of former members. It’s not that they really expect GB to govern like the editor of the Guardian, but the people I’m talking about really wanted to be back in the fold and they feel they’ve got enough reason to return.
This group isn’t enough to win an election, though it’s crucial in seats like Broxtowe. The Tories have been hoping to more than balance it with the people who were telling pollsters last year that they’d switch if GB became leader. That group seems to have been mostly former Tory voters who switched to TB for some of the 1997-2005 elections as they felt he was more modern, moderate and competent than the Tories, while still culturally very different from Old Labour. That group is I think still suspending judgment: they see GB as clearly more competent than DC but also as more obviously Labour. They are willing to give him a chance, but are not changing votes either way yet.
As for Europe, the number of constituents who have asked me about a referendum currently stands at two.
40 - I gave up after the first para, but in short form, I guess this translates as “please give me a job, Gordon…”
Interesting article Mike. However it is also going to be the headlines in the weeks to come.
39. Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch both live in Broxtowe??
The Mail’s front page may have been, ‘Lukewarm’ but the editorial is pretty supportive. I wouldn’t have believed I would have ever read this in the Mail about an incoming Labour PM.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=464813&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
The Evening Standard also had a pretty nasty cover for Brown on at least one of its editions yesterday. You had Blair in the commons, beaming triumphantly, with Brown sitting next to him, dour and brooding, huge bags under his eyes, looking for all the world like the Golem of Prague. Headline? “You can smile now, Gordon”
40. “As for Europe, the number of constituents who have asked me about a referendum currently stands at two.”
Great! Did you include a pledge to your constituents to let the British people decide the fate of the EU Constitution by a Referendum. If so do you stand by that pledge, or have you changed your mind.
Can you keep your promises, or can we not believe a word that you say? It’s really that simple!
I say that you are a man of your word, and you still want to hold a Referendum on the EU Treaty-Constitution-Treaty.
40 Surprised you got two, were they bored as well?
44
If you cant be bothered to read it, this is how it finishes.
The Labour Party, however, is very lucky to have him - and the Tories would do well not to underestimate this dour but formidable Scot.
He deserves a fair wind. We wish him well.
I’m pincing myself that was in the ‘Mail’
Hell has just frozen over!!
37 - none! ON the day that a senior Lib Dem seems poised to join Gordon’s team, I think you can leave the snide remarks behind Mark!
40 “they positively like the fact that GB makes unsparkly long speeches with few jokes”
Then perhaps your electors would be better served by having Fidel Castro as their MP?
38 SeanT and generally about participation. As a punter can say “Whether its an mp or an mep or an Brussels civil servant, who gives a t**s, none of them listen” - is a why it is not an issue. I am not particularly enabled by power being in parliament compared to elsewhere to any great extent
Gordon will be looking at the local level and local participation. He will reason that when people are given responsibility and power, they move to the left, they seek state / council intervention to solve problems. Disenfranchisement keeps people focused purely on their own immediate surropunds, and more concerned with keeping Council tax down. That is where we will see a lot of stuff (imho).
This is why I have grudging respect for the leader of my local Tory Council leader, because I suspect that if he was in Neath he would be in the Labour Party
Dacre has little control on the Evening Std.
The Mail is very supportive to Brown. Dacre is Brown’s mate and that is why he employs right wing attack dogs to go after Cameron.
Brown will have an easier ride with the Mail than Blair had.
44. agree - sign off from Mail op/ed:
The Labour Party, however, is very lucky to have him - and the Tories would do well not to underestimate this dour but formidable Scot. He deserves a fair wind. We wish him well.
Of course, possibly just a set up for knives yet to fall - but a lot more balanced than some of the other rants (including some on this board…)
I’m sure someone is already getting the previous elections figures ready for analysis…
Sedgefield By - Election Winner
Labour Party 1/200
Conservative Party 25/1
Liberal Democrat Party 33/1
Labour Share Of The Vote In The Sedgefield By - Election
60.01% Or More 8/11
0 - 58.9% 6/4
58.90 - 60 % 6/1
Does anybody else reckon the 3/2 at Will Hills on Labour getting less than 59% (what they got last time with Blair) of the vote in Sedgefield might be worth a punt..?.
DTel leader even more Brown-friendly, it seems - and putting Cameron on the spot. Think Brown will be delighted with the tone of the leaders, the exception being The Sun. As for The Times, somewhat rambling even by their standards, I thought
Douglas Alexander to International Development with added responsibility from DTI for international trade.
Re GB’s Cameronesque “let the work of change begin”, given that he’s effectively been in control of domestic policy for the past 10 years, does this not translate as: “I’ve cocked it up, big style. What a mess I’ve made. I’ve got 2 years to do something different and try to make it right. Shit, I’d better get on with it…”?
That may be how voters see it.
35, 39. Cons at 2.04 - yum yum.
49 - I think given the events of the last 48 hours and, if rumours are to be belived of the next 24 - you are in a pretty week position to argue about Lib Dem support for Gordon Brown.
I imagine also that if a Plaid/Labour deal is agreed the Lib Dems would be pretty happy too (although Mike German may not).
David Milliband is to be For Sec according to Sky
60 - but Dan, I dont believe your rumours are anything more than your fevered imagination!
55 Reckon so - it an’t really be odds on that Labour would lose less than 5% of the vote on a by-election turnout in a seat that was previously held by Blair.
54 - GE 2005 Results from Wikipedia here - Personally I think less than 58.9% would be a worthwhile punt… Turnout likely to be very low given the fact its a by-election, and percieved ultra-safe Labour.
Re Douglas Alexander to International Development and Ed Balls to Education and Children - it is clear that his strategy is to give his acolytes the `soft and cuddely’ jobs to help them make their reputation. However, both, particularly Ed Balls, suffer from weak presentational skills, so I am not sure it will work.
48, 52 53. Yes the Mail editorial is positive in many parts, but it also has notable caveats. Some of them coded, some not coded. You seem to have missed the major one, perhaps there has been an outbreak of national dyslexia while I’ve been away.
So to help you out, here it is:
“The same goes for Europe, where Mr Blair has handed his successor a bitterly poisoned chalice. Should Mr Brown go ahead and ask Parliament to ratify the new version of the European Constitution, agreed in principle by Mr Blair in Brussels last weekend? Or should he call the referendum promised to the British people at the last election?
As this paper has repeatedly stressed, we believe he should honour his party’s word. As the decision day draws closer, we shall see if he has the courage to do so.”
That’s not even coded. What the Mail is saying is: If you don’t give us a vote we shall withdraw all our support and you can expect a savaging. If you do give us a vote we may swing behind you for the G/E - giving you a great chance of winning.
It’s practically an identical line to the Sun’s, discussed upthread.
You guys may have missed this, you can be sure Brown hasn’t, he’s too smart. It must be very tempting for him - if he gets the Sun and Mail behind him - he’s halfway home. If he loses them, hmmm..
Morning all
Re: 49 - “seems poised”..Hmmm…perhaps we could also say that another Tory MP “seems poised” to defect to Labour. Let’s see what the day brings, Rik. I suspect that many of those dancing the dance of the seven veils on here are going to be left overdressed
Following seanT’s comment yesterday morning, I would just like to say that while other things have been said about my behind “flabby” and “centrist” are new to me. I’m an LD, let’s have a referendum. There, happy now ?
The reason there won’t be a referendum is that NEITHER Labour NOR the Tories want a referendum. Cameron can ask for one safe in the knowledge he won’t get one. He has the same problems on Europe as Labour - how would the electorate react to seeing Dave on the “no” platform and Ken Clarke on the “yes” platform (presumably)?
As for Wales, an extraordinary turn of events and I think a comment on how much politicians need to understand how coalition politics works. The Tories are now the Opposition to PC/Labour and, as the newspaper story suggests, that probably won’t do them any harm. This is of course the same Tory party in Wales that was only too happy to jump into bed with Plaid just a few weeks ago..and they accuse the LDs of opportunism !!
Final comment on yesterday, extraordinary scenes in the HoC and elsewhere on a day the like of which not seen for over 30 years (since Wilson resigned). As others have said, the manner of Thatcher’s demise made yesterday unlike November 1990. I suspect that had it not been for Iraq, Blair would still be PM and be looking forward to scrapping it out with Cameron.
Pimpernel
Sorry for the delay, I was busy last night.
Ok we look to be almost there then on this bet.
As I see it the terms are as follows: Let settle on the next 3 elections. As per your agreement to what I said on a previous thread and so the neutral arbiters are clear.
-For this coming general election I get the effective equivalent of 2/1 on there being Conservative PM at the end of it from you to a £100 stake. If I win, my profit paid by you to me is £200. If I lose, I give you £100.
-In the event that there is no Conservative PM resulting, for the next general election after that I get the effective equivalent of 2/1 on a Conservative PM from you to a £100 stake. If I win my profit paid by you to me is £200. If I lose, I give you £100.
-In the event that there is no Conservative PM resulting, for the next General election after that I get the effective equivalent of 4/1 on a Conservative PM from you to a £100 stake. My profit paid by you to me is £400. If I lose, I give you £100.
As per all such bets of this type on pb.com no money is exchanged upfront and money changes hands once the results of each election are known. All stakes & winnings are in UK Sterling, or its successor as official currency of the UK.
The only riders I have are as per I stated previously on the UK Tory (for clarity it is Party generally recognised as the UK Conservative Party, the one with David Cameron as its current party leader) Party’s existence or that generally and most widely recognised as its successor should it change its name or split in anyway.
and
The electoral system remains as currently is the case ie FPTP. Obviously if the system changes then its a completley different situation. If the system changes the bet is void which I hope you’d agree is fair.
Your only rider as I can see is that the bet will lapse on the death of either individual who made this bet which I accept.
I trust that is acceptable. If so, and subject to anything that the good people of pb.com may see as being needing clarified to ensure that the bet is considered fair and watertight, I’m game.
I await your reply,
Best regards
Yokel.
Reading both the Mail and the Telegraph this morning, you realise how the press has changed. Even though both newspapers are still ‘Tory’ they are not tribal as they once were. The Telegraph’s criticisms of Brown are muted, its comments on Davies, and the Tories in general, is almost weary in tone, almost as if it can’t be bothered.
66. PS, indeed I bet Cameron is praying that Gordon does NOT allow a referendum.
On this one single issue, Cameron can get practically all the important papers to switch sides and firmly support him and the Tories. It’s probably the only issue that can do this.
If Gordo calls a vote, he shoots Cameron’s choicest fox.
44 the mail editiorial is almost unbelievable. Given the bile that has been directed towards the labour party by the paper over not just the past 10 years but at least the past 50 years, it feels like something from some political novel for the paper to give an incoming labour prime minister such a warm welcome especially one who is rooted is the traditions of the party that GB is.
re 55 it seems very good value to me
65 - it works for me…!
More of the same please, Gordon. “Government of all the talents” my arse!
70 seanT. Is there any prospect that we might allow the supremacy of Parliament to reign and stop all this dubious whinnying for referendums on any vague European issue that passes by ??
I take the old Conservative line that we elect our MPs to consider these issues and why should we allow the buggers to abrogate their responsibilities ??
49 Rik , as you are pb.coms resident “expert” in predicting defections and of course have personal experience of it , I will defer to you .
59 They will be out to around 2.2 next week , I would think before starting to come in again .
67. Dude! Morning to you too. I never said YOUR behind was flabby and centrist, just the general bottom of the Lib Dems. I’m sure yours is pert enough to bounce pingpong balls off.
Er, maybe I’ve spent too long in Bangkok.
Anyhow I’m very glad to hear that you want a referendum., Good for you. Do other Lib Dems feel the same? Would be nice to know their official policy. What is it?
The rest of your analysis of the EU issue is lamentably unsophisticated, but then again few have the in-depth obsessive knowledge of myself on this matter, and, besides, I’m not going to say any more nasty things to you because I’m still feeling guilty about the bottom thing.
I simply refer you to my posts at 66 and 70, for your leisured enlightenment.
73 Bob. I think you’ll find my ARSE trumps yours !
55 Where is this market, Tipster? Not on my internet.
One of the mysteries of the present scene is the way that Cameron (given his relative success as leader) seems to have lost the press. The FT and the Economist, once Tory stalwarts, seem very pro-Labour these days.
Darling at 1.01 on betfair - looks in the bag.
Iain Dale suggesting Dame Shirley “Alzheimers” Williams was in Gordos office - could be the big defection ?
67.”I suspect that many of those dancing the dance of the seven veils on here are going to be left overdressed” Stodge, I was just thinking yesterday that Brown was doing the dance of the 7 veils and I wondered if what was underneath would live up to all the spin and briefing this week.
Completely O/T - I notice that Dizzy and Guido had a recorded bet on the Pb.com recorded wagers page about Cruddas coming in the top 2. When Mike’s got a few spare minutes (I appreciate probably not today) - it would be nice to have confirmed that the bet has been settled as agreed and record the winner of the bet as well for historical posterity. Just a thought…
Douglas Alexander to be international development secretary in Cabinet. BBC
44/71: Ageed, though to be honest I can’t see the Mail staying friendly past a honeymoon phase. (Isn’t their claim that a large majority of English voters voted Tory last time simply false, by the way?) But apart from Dacre’s friendship I think it reflects a general ‘give him a hance, there’s nobody obviously better’ mood in the public, and the press always have an eye to staying on board with their readers.
Tonight on Question Time:
Yvette Cooper
Michael Howard
Ming Campbell
Piers Morgan
5th guest still to be determined
78. It was up with Hills briefly but has been pulled. The market on the first GB event is still up but a by-election defeat has tightened further to 3/1.
74. JackW. Just for once, you are missing the point entirely. The new way of legitimising constitutional changes is via Referendums. We had them about UK devolution, elected mayors etc. That is why Labour promised a referendum on the EU constitution. Get with the program! Heck, I’m pro-Europe and I am desperate for a referendum. I just want the beggers to keep their election promises!
Two education jobs - one for skills and universities one for Schools and kids
Denham for Home office -
BBC just now
Is it true - the rumour that Prawn Dimarolo has been given Culture and Leisure? Oh the comedy!
79.”One of the mysteries of the present scene is the way that Cameron (given his relative success as leader) seems to have lost the press.”
The Conservatives have not had the press behind them for years, and I disagree with the assumption that the Mail has been fervently supporting us even before Cameron became leader. The relationship struck up between Dacre and Brown has been cultivated and nurtured for a few years now, we are just given it more prominence now.
85. Should be a good fiesty affair - Mrs Balls could be out of her depth in that company tho…
80. Woohoo!
Apologies Peter. I fear almost as soon it was tipped on here Hill’s took it down; strange that…
87. Disraeli indeed !! …. your namesake would be spinning like Alastair Campbell on speed at your attitude !!
I say humbug to referendums !!
Here’s clue. Brown will favour people who “do” rather than “grandstanders”. Dawn Primarolo has doen the grunt work for Gordon at the Exchequer. Given the agendas at that ministry, maybe that is what the ministry needs
84
On the morning of the GE that William Hague lost, the Mail led with the Barrymore case. I could not believe it, no rallying cry to the troops, no urging to go to the ballot box and vote Tory nothing! Since Thatcher’s demise the Mail’s heart doesn’t seem to be in it. I think that goes for much of its readership, still Tory to the core, but they just can’t enthuse themselves over the present Tory Party or its leader. They’ll go out and vote Tory because they hate Labour, not for any other reason.
David Miliband confirmed to Foreign Office - Beeb.
Shirley Williams to advise on nuclear proliferation - Beeb.
98. Lol - they’ll be shaking in their boots in Tehran tonight !
John Wheatley: When you say “people that do” you think that includes people who consistently screw-up? Two words: Tax credits.
Re 98. Beeb now saying Shirley “thinking about” the position !!
89 whats the source for this particular rumour? It would make sense as Dawn is very much part of team brown and GB is very unhappy with the way the olympics is being managed.
93 Yes, they clearly got that wrong. Did you manage to get any money down?
103, yes. I always find it prudent to bet first then tip on here later;)
sbjme19 @ 79, the FT has not supported the Tories since 1987 and neither has the Economist in recent memory, so neither is a real surprise.
98 what a moronic thing to offer her
Brown will look like a laughing stock
So will Ming, if she accepts or refuses. Brown looks idiotic to bring this clapped out old has-been into any kind of position, and Ming looks idiotic for saying on TV yesterday that “No LibDem” would serve in any capacity in a Brown govt. He can’t keep his own founders in line? He looks out of touch and clueless.
Yesterday Ming also said of Brown, to camera “He’s a friend of mine… a towering intellect…”
With friends like these, mate - as the saying goes.
Harriet Harman to be Leader of the Commons - Beeb
101. Fabulous - Brown recruits a mad old fruit who was spouting weird conspiracy theories on Newsnight just recently. A government of all the talents indeed.
106 - Will Williams resign first or wait to be sacked?
108. Correct - Mossad dusting down the umbrellas as we speak
To be honest though, it makes perfect sense, doesn’t it? Williams et al. left Labour due its anti-Europeanism and mad economic policies - both of these are now in the distant past. There is no longer any reason at all for them to remain outside their former party.
My feeling on reading the press was that there was a bit of a Boxing Day feeling. We’ve had the build up to Christmas, yesterday had the high emotion, today there’s the leftover treats, but the presents don’t look quite as good and there’s been a surfeit of activity. Brown’s concern should be that the January blues might appear all too soon.
The questioning is harsher today than yesterday, the claims for change being challenged. The press has seen the magicians tricks before - we had Blair bring in outsiders to the big tent, we had Blair sharing a platform with Heseltine & Clarke, we had the surprise announcement. “Where’s the beef?” is the big question and I’m not sure if the 100 days programme will answer that, it might well come across as more spin, no change.
94. JackW. Actually, I forgot to ask you . . .What was my namesake like in person
(Only pulling your leg)
113 Disraeli. Impudent puppy !!
Jack W is 104 …. not 144 !!
109. I must say I’m not a fan. I’d use the term “scared cow” but this could be misunderstood.
Darling to be Chancellor - Beeb.
Let’s not fall for all this guff about a ministry of all the talents. Remember Blair giving Heseltine a role in relations with China and sitting on a platform with Clarke to set up a group on the future of Europe. Blair invented the non-political Tsar for drugs and other issues.
All PMs do it, and Blair did it the most. None of what Brown will do - Shirley on nuclear proliferation ? perlease ! - is going to be new in the slightest, so let’s not fall for the spin, eh?
115 Scared, Julian? Absolutely bloody terrified, mate!
Ah i see someone else is perhaps tipping Primarolo for a nice move…Is she related to King Rolo?
116 - Hooray, makes up for missing out on Harman!
115 Julian. “scared cow” ?!?!?
http://twistededge.org/articles/Cow_Tipping/obj180geo68pg1p5.png
Ha, Freudian slip of the day is mine.
Btw, Augustus - I’ll be in touch soon via e-mail. The illness I had last time we met turned out to be a tad more obdurate than I thought so I’ve been out of action for a few weeks.
Sky: Hutton and Hain will stay in the Cabinet
Re: 76 - SeanT, your comments re: behinds general and specific are much appreciated and noted. I, too, have no knowledge of the LD “bottom” either general or specific and speak only as a lowly party member.
My analysis may be unsophisticated but that’s only because I’ve not read this new constitution/treaty. I think it reasonable that I should read this document and form my own view rather than relying on your analysis or that of the Daily Mail.
If a referendum means we all get to read this and understand it, so much the better. I was merely considering the politics of the referendum not how I would vote or advise others to vote.
I do agree that there should be a referendum.
Methink Gordon has rather over hyped his reshuffle! It is looking like a Government of the Junior Ministers!
The Emperor has no clothes!!
123. I bet they are both very relieved.
The writs for Ealing Southall and Sedgefield have been moved. This must be a record, as far as the latter is concerned, for the period between a vacancy and a writ.
123 Andrea. Keep the door locked though !!
125. Ministry of the has-beens and never-will-bes, perhaps?
123. I wonder where he’ll put Hain? I had a bad feeling he’d be stuck somewhere.
Actually I think he might stay here ……….
123. Second choice Hain stays at NI ? Ouch.
125.”Methink Gordon has rather over hyped his reshuffle! It is looking like a Government of the Junior Ministers!”
If you want to brig new faces in the Cabinet, you should pick them from junior ministers rank or backbenches or the government will be the same.
And frankly the names suggested so far are not worse than half of the Tory Shadow Cabinet
Observer at 127 - What are the dates for the by-elections? Thanks.
133 - July 19th.
133 DC. 19th July.
131. I’m blaming you if that is so! It’ll be messenger shooting of the highest order!
In a way this would not be surprising. In the absence of anyone else wanting or taking it I suppose its the easiest thing for Gordo to do thoyugh the Ashdown situation suggests that Hain was out of post, if not out of government.
But we shall await confirmation if that is so. Won’t realy suit Hain though if it does come about, that would be ladder at an end.
132. Julian suggested me there’s another way to bring new faces in: old LDs
137 Andrea. I understand we may have the odd surprise at Minister of State level and positions outwith the government but in the gift of the PM.
Hain to Work and Pensions.
Whither Hutton?
132. Andrea - Labour was close to being a Fuhrerpartei under Blair, with only Brown having any independent status. It is now clear that it will be even more so with Brown as PM - Williams, Davies etc. is just window dressing. The problem for Labour may be that Brown may make a brutally effective office manager, but a Fuhrer needs to have broader appeal than that.
Innocent Abroad - The point is that the old fossils know very well that even if the Conservative Party were to win the next election, *they* probably won’t be getting any ministerial positions, and even if they did, they would be at such a junior level that they’d never make the Cabinet.
WRT the Referendum on the Treaty, it appears that about 85% of the voters want one. While I’d like to believe that 85% of the population also want out of the EU, I doubt it.
Jack W - I’m sufficiently old-fashioned to believe that once a winning party makes a promise in its manifesto, it should carry out that promise, unless circumstances make it impossible.
Hain to Work and Pensions.
Ministers in Internatonal Development up from 2 to 4.
Source - Beeb.
132 - fine but it is hardly a government of “ALL the talents”!!
125. As I posted yesterday its hard work for Gordo to being outisders into cabinet for the reasons listed. It woudl need to be someone acceptable to the party and of serious heavyweight history. Getting both isn’t easy and straightforward though possible.
I would agree though, there may be a danger of over selling but we’ll see in an hour or two if he really has a big bunny to pull out of the hat.
Where can I bet on the next Home Secretary?
142 Beat you, Jack! Age catching up on you?
143. Maybe they should add Bobby Davro
So far this is a very timid reshuffle. It’s the same old faces in different jobs. It also looks like Brown has resisted calls for a Department for the Nations and Regions, if the news that Hain is going to keep Wales (source: BBC) is true.
Let’s hope Shirley Williams, that renowned non-backer of free speech, takes him up on this. I’d be so disappointed if she didn’t make a return to ‘frontline’ politics now. It makes Gordon a laughing stock if she does.
Ah, the wheels are coming off already…
142……….Woooohooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Well done Peter Hain on your promotion, shut the door on the way out.
145 Think the market is closed, Disgusted.
Seems to be at least three in the frame - Denham and Blears (who I have backed) and Jacqui Smith (who I have not.)
141 Sean. I’m sufficiently old to remember that political manifestos get binned in the remaindered fiction section when any government is elected !!
Re: 149 - Bob, I think you and Rik are getting a bit carried away here. IF, and it’s a huge if, Shirley is offered a job as an “adviser”, that’s light years away from being in the Cabinet or the Government.
ANY Government has the right to seek out expertise in specialised areas from wherever it can find it and apart from partisan posturing and petty points-scoring, I fail to see what all the fuss is about.
I suppose a future Cameron Government would therefore be precluded from seeking as advisers anyone who is not a card-carrying member of the Conservative party. That would be equally ridiculous.
143 - it’s not even a Government of ANY talent on the evidence so far.
Maybe Patten is due to defect - he’d be one of the biggest beasts in Government if he did…
142. Are there any pensions left (outside the Beeb and MPs) ?
143. Rik “fine but it is hardly a government of “ALL the talents”!!”
I’ve written Gordon to propose to appoint you too, but the bastard didn’t pay attention!
If Patten did defect, I don’t think it would make much of a stir, as he’s very much yesterday’s man, and has been detached from the Conservative Party for a long time.
Remember Patten was appointed as a European Commissioner by Mr T Blair in 1999, so Brown appointing him to an advisory post or whatever is less than earth shattering, even if true.
Sky sources: Jacquie Smith as Home Secretary
Oh No…she’ll yellow card all of you!
154, No, he has said absolutely not and I am grateful as he is a big figure in our history, and I like him, despite his ludicrous Europhilia. Same with Ken Clarke.
148, Eddie I’m not sure what people expected to be honest. The problem if there isnt really a big story kind of change somewhere is that it was played up as such, by Gordo’s people themselves. Really thouygh there is a comparatively limited amount that he could possibly do to really make people sit up and notice, outside of the anoraks.
No disrespect but Shirley Wolliams isnt going to really get the public thinking ‘wow, th