“Labour 4% ahead with ICM” - reports
June 29th, 2007
Gordon gets his predicted bounce at last
There are reports of two polls for tomorrow’s papers showing Labour leads with the ICM survey for the Guardian having a the party at 39% against the Tories on 35%.
I’ll report more as soon as there is news.
UPDATE 2130: The actual shares in the polls are changes on the previous poll from the pollster are:
There can be no doubt that these are very good figures for Labour but it would have been surprising if they had been anything else. The way the transition has been so orderly without any problems and the huge, largely positive, media attention over the past weeks should have given Labour this massive shot in the arm.
Will it be sustained? Who knows? But this evening I entered the “length of Gordon’s first term” spread market and sold at 85.5 weeks. The better Labour poll the more people will start talking about an earlier election and the lower this number will go.
Mike Smithson
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Well, that is a Brown bounce and no mistake. I wonder how long it will last?
1. It was to be expected, but polls still usually overstate Labour support. I think Brown will not call a GE until he has to and that’s just less then three years away, on current form no one will win outright, but the conservatives will win an English majority which will ignite the WLQ.
So much for your “dead-cat bounce” eh, Benedict?
One of the questions is: Does Cameron have the nerve not to be rattled by it?
Poor old Brown. He’s not having much luck with the news agenda, is he? First his defection was swamped by the floods and now his bounce is blown sideways by the bomb.
1 - I think it’ll last for a long time.
Even I can’t bring myself to hate this government now that Blair has gone. I’m actually feeling quite positive towards them now, if I’m being totally honest (and there’s no point in not being honest).
1,3. There was always going to be a ‘West Lothian’ bouce because TB was extremely unpopular the question is for how long can Brown distance himself from Blair - I would say six months maximum because he will be challanged by the press.
1. Three tenths of a nanojiffy
It’s a definite bounce, a seven point jump in a month, no quibbles. I expect Nick P is smiling. However, if Gordon has the nous or guts to call a snap election on good polls now I’ll eat my hat. And it won’t last.
5 - I agree largely with what you say. A year ago, had we to give a second preference on ballot papers, Mr Cameron’s party would have had it. But not now… give Brown a chance. Let’s see what he’s made of.
3. It is a dead cat bounce.
You’ll see that in no more than six weeks.
This only confirms my view a September election is now on the cards, clear your diaries for the third Thursday in September. If you are involved in politics, clear the decks, go to your action stations. Those who deny this, are the heirs to, the following statements,’Its impossible for the Germans to get their tanks throught the Ardennes’ ‘The Japanese will never manage to get through the Jungles of Malaya’
‘When appraising the enemies intentions, always decide what the enemy is least likely to do, when you know that, then you know what the enemy is going to do’
10 Some bounce, some cat.
Anyone know how the LibDems did - that may be as big a talking point as the Brown bounce?
1,5 - It actually depends on policies, strange I know… If Brown were to stick religiously to the Blairite script (ID cards, 90-day detention, denigrating public service, etc) then people will get disenchanted very quickly, as they will see that the “change” rhetoric is all spin and no substance.
However, if there really is concrete change from the things that Blair did and would have done were he still in charge, then things could get very uncomfortable for Cameron.
The unions and pay restraint are an accident waiting to happen though. Whether it’s another fuel crisis, that blows over quickly, or something more serious, is hard to tell. It could go off pretty much at any time I would have thought.
11 In a similar vein, Coldstone, I like the advice to figure out what your opponent would least like you to do, and do it.
Rightly or wrongly, I associate this advice with Richie Benaud.
15 What? Richie Benaud led a Panzer Division in the Ardennes offensive?
lib dems on 14?
12. You think not?
Come back to me in six weeks. (I actually doubt it will take that long. A month.).
Or, you know, if Gordon believes that this is a true bounce from a resurgent party, pleeeeeeeeeeese call an election and get your mandate!
Then the Lib Dems would be in the 13 - 17 range on the figures quoted in the article.
16 They were terrified of his googlies.
Of course, it’s not just Blair who’s gone. Also gone with him are all the worst members of his cabinet (Reid, Hewitt, Prescott, Falconer, Goldsmith etc). Apart from Hain, there’s nobody left to really hate in the cabinet!
I genuinely wish the government well - I now see how much of my (seemingly deep) hatred of the Labour Party was down to Blair. I’m officially a floating voter now.
re 3 Timothy, (the one who likes Zebras, I could tell you a story about that) Cameron has no choice but to hold his nerve, for as you observe in 14 we have yet to see if there is change.
For example will regional assemblies be resurrected as well?
Re 11, Coldstone, yes I am ready where I am, and whilst he isn’t going to do it, he will if we are not ready.
My view is if Labour hold both by-elections against an anaemic Tory performance the General Election will be on!
Lib dem figures must be appalling, as the bounce isn’t from the tories.
Another ‘I told you so’ I’m afraid as this is what you get for cosying up to labour. Ming’s days are very, very numbered. If the tories can manage to hold off Brown then so should lib dems.
23. Bring it on! I could wish for nothing more.
12 Sorry, Test, but I couldn’t help but take the mickey out of an absurd attempt to belittle an unexpectedly large swing.
If you read my posts (and why on earth should you?) you would know I’ll not take too seriously any poll before November.
It’s good news foe Labour but it’s a mid-summer poll in an unusual political climate.
Very good news for Nick’s cats though. They are bouncing - and very much alive!
23. The problem is Tory voters may tactically vote against Labour in these by-elections so may give Brown a false sense of security.
On Cameron, he will surely continue with his strategy. He can only be knocked of his approach by a serious rebeillion within his party - who may yet start to panic if the poll lead remains in place for a few months - in which case I look forward to seeing Cameron appearing in a Hague like badger gassing jacket at a countryside alliance rally holding up a pound coin for the cameras
I’ve sold the number of Gordon Brown weeks on the Spread market at 85.5 weeks. The chances of an earlier election must be that bit higher after these polls. Yesterday’s by elections were also very revealing.
I think Brown will win the early battles against Cameron but then DC will improve just as the Brown bouce dies down.
26, in what sense belittle it?
“It’s a definite bounce, a seven point jump in a month, no quibbles.” to quote myself.
However, the point of the dead cat bounce is that the bounce is really there but the cat is really dead. And this cat is dead. That means the bounce is wholly due to novelty value and will wear right off, with none of the anti-Gordon, pro-Cameron underlying values having shifted at all.
Anthony Wells has some argument to the same on his polling report site today.
“The increasingly positive poll ratings that Gordon Brown is receiving elsewhere suggest that people wish him well and are willing to give him a chance, but these figures suggest that they don’t actually have very high expectations of him and in most cases think David Cameron is actually more likely to deliver.”
Dead cat. Real but temporary bounce. You’ll see I’m right and it won’t take long.
Not that I’ll ever bet on anything, but is there a “book” or whatever you call it, on a National Government being created before the expiry of the natural term of this Parliament?
Calculate the risk, the risk is in not going! Brown has a window of opportunity for 12 months, leave it longer and the window starts to shrink. The natural inclination of the voters of, ‘Time for a change’ will kick in, at the moment Brown is the change in 12 months, he will not be. Test, I wouldn’t be so confident of Tory prospects as you obviously are, the Tories screwed up the last three GE’s they could easily screw up a fourth: could be sack cloth and ashes once again. Also the bounce,(which of course I didn’t think would happen) when those polls were taken, the bounce may have been still on its upward trajectory. Today will not have done the government any harm, watching SKY news the Telegraph political guy, was gushing in his praise of Brown’s handling of it so far.
In a fit of plagiarism, here is a post from Conservative Home:
I like to keep old newspapers on historic days. I’ve just dusted off my copy of the ‘Independent’ from Thursday 29 November 1990 - the first day of John Major’s Premiership, with reports on the appointment of his first cabinet - and the first opinion poll.
I remember at the time Labour using the old “Tories have had saturation coverage” argument. But the reported poll is striking:
Harris/ITN poll, 29 November 1990
Voting intention:
Conservatives: 49%
Labour: 38%
LibDem: 9%
Best candidate for PM:
Major: 49%
Kinnock: 24%
Who do you think will win the next election?
Conservatives: 60%
Labour: 29%
Don’t know: 11%
Labour’s bounce now doesn’t seem so big in comparison, does it?
So a smaller Brown bounce that Major had,
31 Definitional problems, Test.
My understanding of the phrase ‘dead cat bounce’ is that it originated amongst stockbrokers who noticed that just before a share price collapsed to zero and was wiped out, it would often give a little jump.
I therefore think of the ‘bounce’ as tiny and the object as completely moribund.
Perhaps that explains why I said ’some bounce, some cat’.
Mike @ 29. Philip Gould at the BPC seems to have read it better than others on the current evidence. He was, as you remember very persuasive, but he is obviously pretty bloody good at translating what his focus groups into numbers - a pretty tough task, I can tell you.
Re 29, Mike, good trade, though I would buy them back in 3 weeks after a move in the market and take the profit.
34 - but the moral of the story is that the incumbent party changed a long term high profile leader and put the chancellor in charge and then went onto the win the subsequent general election….non?
32 Well Agingjb, you could back ‘any other party’ on the Betfair Most Seats market.
I think a Government of National Unity might qualify, but you’d be well advised to get a ruling from Betfair on this.
re 33, Coldstone, yes Brown has a narrow window and if he does not take it, he will lose. That does not imply that he will win if he does.
PtP. I agree the bounce is significant and not tiny. However, the cat is moribund, dead as a dodo. I think you will see this by July 30th. Only time will tell.
34 I was tempted to plagiarise that as well Benedict - Hat Tip due to Liberal Tory
34. You are right, but so too is coldstone. Brown’s best chance of winning is to go to the country within the next six months but the danger is Labour are unlikely to win an overall majority - it is likely the Conservatives will obtain an English majority and this is when the WLQ will explode. Brown being a unionist does not want to expose this WLQ because DC will have to play the English card.
41 Oh knock it off, Test. You’re guilty of hyperbole and I’ve got you bang to rights!
What would you take as evidence of this cat’s death?
40
How much would you actually put on a Tory win, Benedict, hand on heart, don’t be a Tory for one moment, clear all your beliefs out of your mind, cleanse yourself of every political loyalty, make a judgement based on facts, not what I want to happen, free yourself of all that, remember evidence plus analysis equals conclusion.
Re 38, Labour humanist, the moral of the story is the bounce was massive by comparison and had almost been lost in the period leading up to the election.
Take 10 points of our 1992 GE position and add some to Labour and see where it gets you.
41 According to Wikipedia a “moderate rise” (not that Wiki is always the most correct)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce
As Labour has been in the lower 30’s in a pretty stable picture for months this looks like a bit more than a moderate rise and going into summer recess it could be a sustained one.
Didn’t Wilson go to the country early in 1970 on the back of some good polls against the previous polling tide?
On the side of whether Brown would be wise to go to the country - well, the chances of losing (or at least drastically reducing) his majority are high. I’d say that in his shoes I’d want a 10-12 point lead over two months before calling it.
In hindsight, I’d have got Blair to call the election for early July and step down at about the same time, maximising the chance that Labour could nick as much of the “Time for a change” theme and capitalize on the “give the fella a fair crack first, eh?” theme.
If he calls one for October, I’d see a hung Parliament as very very likely. We all think that his chances will dwindle as the Parliament lengthens, but who knows what events are going to occur over the next three years? Any pilot will tell you - if in doubt, land long.
That’s the stuff. It’s clear there is a bounce (maybe even Bob Sykes will admit it, who knows?), not yet clear how long and how high. What happens next is Brown’s new policy announcements (which should push the bounce higher) vs everyday ‘events’ (which tend to be difficult for governments). I do like francis calling it the West Lothian bounce, after months of argument that the WLQ would be our fatal flaw once GB took over. WLQ? Euro-referendum? Cameron’s charm? The search for a Tory magic bullet continues…
Came a day early for me to cash in on the Cats Protection bets - the deal was IIRC first bet in July. But I’m reasonably confident that the kitties will grab the kitty.
48. Can anyone tell us why Brown has to call a GE? Labour has a comfortable majority so they don’t need to call an election until 2010. If he thinks this will solve the WLQ he is wrong.
45 “How much would you actually put on a Tory win, Benedict, hand on heart…”
Not a fair question, Coldstone. It depends too much on the precise circumstances at the time.
If you are imagining a snap election right now, I would say Labour would lose, not least because the decision would look opportunistic. Depends how exactly it happens, how it’s sold etc, but to me Brown is some way off a position where he might be tempted.
Re 45, Coldstone, “How much would you actually put on a Tory win, Benedict, hand on heart, don’t be a Tory for one moment, clear all your beliefs out of your mind, cleanse yourself of every political loyalty, make a judgement based on facts, not what I want to happen, free yourself of all that, remember evidence plus analysis equals conclusion.”
On an early election, I wouldn’t, however I would put a fair bit on a hung parliament.
If he goes in sept/Oct the Labour majority will be roughly where it is now perhaps a litle less. Every month after that it will shrink if it goes the full term and then a GE, a Tory majority but probably not a working one, i.e. single figures, 30 being my calculation of a minimum working majority.
46 - I think there is far too much certainty on here. I would say, a la rumsfeld, we know that we don’t know, how things are going to turn out. After 1990 the tories had a good bounce but for a long period Labour regained a clear lead in the polls right up to the calling of the 1992 general election - and lost by a clear margin.
I say it is all up for grabs, and anyone who claims to know what is going to happen by looking at polling from 17 years ago is whistling in the wind!
48 Didn’t the World Cup play a part in 1970 - England being defending champions, and Wilson setting the election date for after the quarter finals. We lost to the Germans after having a
2-0 lead and somehow the ensuing national depression allegedly led to the government’s defeat…
53 I think Labour would win the most number of seats but unlikly obtain a working majority. Boundary changes and the Tories improved ratings in the Polls since 2005 (despite the ‘West Lothian’ bounce) should result in the tories winning at least 260-270 seats (nearly all in England).
re 49. I was planing a headline Nick - “Will the Broxtowe pussies die?
Given the timiig we have another few weeks of waiting
55,
There is that theory, yes, but I wouldn’t put too much credence in it.
Besides, have you any idea what actually happened in the alternate reality where we won that game (Banks played)? Anthony Wells recovered some texts from some kind of cross-time rift and published them at http://www.btinternet.com/~chief.gnome/
Scary stuff …
59 - Of more importance, I think, were the 1970 locals - where Labour did reasonably well, compared to their almost uniquely abysmal record in previous years.
re 58 Anthony Wells’s web book is completely brilliant. Read it and have fun.
57 Mike. No no … PALMER’S PUSSIES POSSIBLY PARDONED ????
58 Very scary stuff indeed !
YouGov - Lab 38, Con 35.
63- that is a dire poll for the Tories, and probably for the LDs too.
I think we’ll see the Brown bounce continue as we pull out of Iraq and ID cards are scrapped.
Another device found in London, I assume in this car in Park Lane. So much for my belief that there was unlikely to be more than the one found this morning
Does anyonw know of this underground carpark is under some particular building?
Very odd that we have had two failed detonations.
re 63, many thanks Mike, I have added that to the post on my blog..
Fate of Felines Hangs by a Thread - Moggies Muse over MOE.
last two yougov polls were
Con 37 Lab 35
Con 39 Lab 33
I am content with this!
65 If it’s the one I’m thinking of Yokel, no, it goes under Park Lane and would be partly under Hyde Park.
Sounds however as though the car was towed there by the Parking Police. It was illegally parked, so they clamped it and hauled it away to the Pound.
Those boys are fearless, I tell you.
Might be a while before the bombers go back to claim the car. They’re going to have the mother and father of all fines to face when they do.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that ARSE is showing a lead for Labour in the poll of polls for the first time since Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative party :
Con 35.8% .. Labour 36.2%.
More from my ARSE later.
Re 69, Peter the Punter “Might be a while before the bombers go back to claim the car. They’re going to have the mother and father of all fines to face when they do.”
Got any more racing tips?
44 - why do I think Labour is dead? Fundamentals - time for a change, interest rates up, NHS in crisis, EU, teen stabbings, you name it, coupled with lack of money, our leader advantage that plays in a GE, and of course the large numbers of new Tory cllrs and lack of Labour ones.
The bounce is substantial but I have no reason at all to suppose it is anything other than temporary. If you want to believe these polls (I do), you must give the same credence to 10 months of Brown-Cameron polls where our guy wins. Findings repeated in the detail of the last YG poll, see my quote from Anthony Wells above.
Brown thinks the cat is dead, too. It’s exactly why he won’t be going to the polls. You’re a gambler and you know this instinctively. Brown has no faith in these numbers that suggest he’d win an election called tomorrow, or he’d call one tomorrow.
Dead cat. Just make sure you admit it when the default position comes back in six weeks or so! (And by that I mean a Tory lead).
Of course I am hoping that my grannies will beat Nick’s cats in less time than that - my only consolation is that it is still June tomorrow!
I see Cantor Spreadfair punters are still betting on 70 Tory gains, while Betfair still puts the parties about even (which comes to much the same since an even result would need 70+ gains). Unless one thinks the polls are wildly out this looks a bit heart over head (I assume Cantor gets lots of City punters who might like a Tory win). Note that Yougov shows a Con->Lab swing rather than the LD->Lab ones of earlier polls.
I see Cantor Spreadfair punters are still betting on 70 Tory gains, while Betfair still puts the parties about even (which comes to much the same since an even result would need 70+ gains). Unless one thinks the polls are wildly out this looks a bit heart over head (I assume Cantor gets lots of City punters who might like a Tory win). Note that Yougov shows a Con->Lab swing rather than the LD->Lab ones of earlier polls.
69 Peter the Punter
One of the fellas who did the first World Trade Centre bombing in 1993 was caught when he tried to get the deposit back on the rental truck…
Am I right to see these scenarios as the following for GB By Elections : Hold Both = Brilliant, magic Hail King Gord
Win one beaten in one = Ok about expected
Bad= Lib Dems win both
Nightmarish = Lib Dems win Sedgefield, Tories win Ealing Southall
72. There is another way of reading it, Test, which is not predicated on prejudice and/or pure hope, and that is that Dave and co went for broke early. They tried to occupy the centre ground and at the same time divide their opponents and stir up doubts / knock out their biggest fear - Gordon Brown as PM. That they have failed has seen them heading inexorably back to their box. Anyone for a tack to the right, immigration and Europe, core vote strategy?
69. Can you imagine some jobsworth car clamper sitting at hgome realising that it was them that towed that motor.
That house is empty of beer and Silk Cut I can tell you.
On a more serious note, and assuming the bombs were actually rigged to go, something doesn’t register here. Without detailing too much there’s generally only two reasons car bomb detonation goes wrong.
Secondly, unless the motor was left in the street where it was to be picked up and for some reason it wasn’t or London has efficient clampers, this doesnt look like a now traditional suicide attack.
If its Islamic inspired terrorism, either they’ve ran out of people who want to go to heaven at this juncture, the would be suicide bombers both had an attack of the collywobbles (which again suggests they are short of the right types) or they’ve shifted tactics.
Those poll figures stink by the way. The Tories only have themselves to blame though, they are the wealk link themselves in winning the election. Labour haven’t suddenly turned a corner, the Tories are just farting about looking at their collective navels.
70. The recent polls clearly show that Brown has benefitted from the ‘West Lothian Bounce’ but not by a significant margin. Many Labourites are returning to the fold but DC managed to get many centre right voters back. Even if the polls remain as they are for the next two years I would predict a hung Parliament. Will DC play the English card or the EU referendum card or combine them with immigration? I think he will as he knows this is the way forward for the Tories and that’s how they can woo their core voters.
76: seems a fair summary, Punter
Any opinions as to will perform the best at the next PMQ’s.?
This could well decide David Cameron’s future as he has been somewhat lacklustre of late IMHO.
If I understand the location correctly, this couldve be a 1 - 2 attack. One bomb goes off people get moved, second bomb goes off in a possible gather and evac area.
If it is, clever but nasty.
The factor we are missing is when was the polling for these polls undertaken ??
If it excludes or partially excludes events from Wednesday then the first phase of the initial “Brown Bounce” may not have fully played out.
I have to say that Anthony Wells book is a gripping read, I would like to see it as a series!
http://bloobloo.com/catbounce.gif
There is no way that Labour could lose Sedgefield surely. Personality vote for Tony aside (just as there was one for Major in Huntingdon) there would still be a very large Labour surplus.
Nick P - I can tell just from your posts that the you and the PLP are feeling fairly upbeat at the moment. Could you give us some sense of the mood? How is the activist base? Do you think you could motivate more/same/fewer activist to run a campaign compared to 2005?
86 - Labour won’t lose Sedgefield. I think Blair actually increased his majority as a % last time round. Labour are now doing pretty well in the polls. I predict safe hold on derisory turnout. Ealing is the one to watch.
86 - Labour won’t lose Sedgefield. I think Blair actually increased his majority as a % last time round. Labour are now doing pretty well in the polls. I predict safe hold on derisory turnout. Ealing is the one to watch.
49 Nick, my bet with you is the first ICM poll in July printed in the Times (ie the rolling monthly poll) - I still think Macmillan Cancer releif will get their money. In fact if you win it will annoy me so much that cats are going to get any of my money I’ll send Macmillan a matching donation.
78 you’re bang on. the last 6 weeks of intense introspection and poncing about moaning about grammar schools has been a spectacular own goal; way too many tory activists don’t seem to want to win enough and prefer the purity of opposition.
“too many tory activists don’t seem to want to win enough and prefer the purity of opposition.”
I like this analysis. I have a friend who is an active Tory and former constituency chair. He once, semi-drunkenly, said that he did not agree with much of what Cameron said, but he remained the best chance to bring in EU withdrawal, hanging etc. This is looking increasingly less likely. Purity of opposition indeed appeals.
88.”I think Blair actually increased his majority as a % last time round”
yes, they increased it a bit, but mainly due to the fact that the tories fell even more than them
76 Punter
Hold Both = Expected but reassuring nonetheless
Win Sedgefield Lose Ealing = Ominous (if Ealing to Tories)
Win Ealing Lose Sedgefield = Wierd, put down as one off.
Lib Dems win both = Horrible PR wise but at least the Tories didn’t win so no LT impact…worse thing happen etc
Lib Dems win Sedgefield, Tories win Ealing = Nightmarish
77. David Cameron will not tack to the right. He has always been a Eurosceptic and he will remain one, but we will campaign on the NHS, on the economy, on education, on green issues.
Those looking for a 2001 campaign are going to be very sorely disappointed.
I am a political optimist, I admit it, but I feel no differently in my gut than I did last month. When the GE is called we will certainly be the largest party and we have a good chance of a majority and a slim chance of a working majority. I want Gordon to call an election, because I firmly believe it will destroy him, whether he calls it tomorrow or May 2010.
I can’t even see them lose Ealing myself not on the raw figures. Turnout wasn’t brilliant at 56% last time and the Labour incumbent was 20 odd percent ahead, so it would take Labour to not so much take their eye off the ball as to go blind, especially with the current feelgood factor.
Having said that I expect it won’t be sweetness and light for that long, unless the Tories continue to be so charitably lame in their opposition.
As it is, my saver on Labour has been executed a few days back. If the Tories start to show any robustness after what is bound to be a market shift to Labour, I’ll back them again
94 - “When the GE is called we will certainly be the largest party” - you’ll be putting your house on that then? The odds are about evens!
Full list of ministers, junior ministers and under-secretaries up on government website
93 now that is fair.
With these majorities and a new PM Lab really should hold both, of course it would still be reassuring to hold off M’lord Rennard after Dunfermline.
francis @ 79. Surely that is spinning. Labour have been on 32/33% since last October (on ICM) and only last month were on 32%. A 7% bounce is not small, in fact somewhat higher than ICM’s initial Cameron bounce of 4% between November and December 2005.
The Tories on here were all predicting that there would be no bounce at all a few months ago. As a Lib Dem, I never believed that. Let’s face it. These are not good polls for Labour and not so good for either of our parties. But trying to spin it away does not make it true, does it?
Some names:
HM TREASURY
- Financial Secretary to the Treasury - The Rt Hon Jane Kennedy MP
- Exchequer Secretary (Parliamentary Secretary) - Angela Eagle MP
- Economic Secretary (Parliamentary Secretary) - Kitty Ussher MP
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
- Minister of State - The Rt Hon Dawn Primarolo MP
DEPARTMENT FOR CHILDREN, SCHOOLS AND FAMILIES
- Parliamentary Under Secretary of State - Lord Adonis
DEPARTMENT FOR CULTURE, MEDIA AND SPORT
- Minister of State - The Rt Hon Margaret Hodge MBE MP
(she’s still around!=
SBS - I don’t believe the odds.
As a political hack I think that when it comes to it, tactical unwind, plenty of airtime for DC, and the understanding that a vote for Brown = another 5 years of this, will push the Tories way up. I am extremely confident. I don’t feel even slightly depressed by today’s news. In a way it cheers me as does any slim hope that we might get a General Election soon. A fair wind to Brown, if it’ll tempt him into going to the country!
94 Test - If we are to avoid boring everybody else rigid tonite, we’re just going to have to agree that we have different ideas of the meaning of death.
And now I’m off to check my pulse.
98.”With these majorities and a new PM Lab really should hold both”
Byelections are a case on their own. The tories should have held Bromley easily (and they would have probably done it on a GE held in the same day) but they risked to lose it anyway
Primaolo is interesting.
Expect cuts.
Joan Ryan MP to be Special Representative to Cyprus.
erm, maybe she should stuck with Ealing trying to save her seat more than Cyprus
90 - lol, kingbongo - you’re a good sport.
87 - Jon - Labour MPs generally pretty cheerful at the moment - not just the polls but the fact that the whole transition went smoothly and GB has been well received while TB has had an affectionate send-off. We’re all aware that the last our days have given us exceptionally good coverage, and not making rash predictions - but in general I think every Labour MP feels there’s a sporting chance of retaining his or her seat.
The activists have been trickling back for some time. The local elections had only a moderate stirring from armchairs but the June by-election produced a marked increase (partly the general improvement in mood, partly something more concrete to focus on). If the election was next month, I’d expect more helpers than in 2005 (when Iraq depressed it) and 2001 (when we could see we were going to win, so neither side really mobilised) but fewer than in 1997. We’ve got the money to fight it whenever it comes.
DEPARTMENT FOR BUSINESS, ENTERPRISE AND REGULATORY REFORM
- Minister of State - The Rt Hon Stephen Timms MP
105. What seat.
Since all have moved on:
“Afternoon all .
An interesting and pretty accurate analysis by Sean F. as per usual. LD successes have tended to come on the back of solid local Government success and the key to taking for example May’s local election performance forward is to see where LD losses and Conservative advances equated to the Parliamentary situation. For example, the LDs took seats off the Tories in Eastbourne so that may be a seat to watch. On the other hand, Conservative successes in Windsor and Maidenhead probably suggest the LD challenge there is receding.
by stodge June 29th, 2007 at 3:44 pm ”
Well Ok Stodge and Lib/Lab battlegrounds. These now assume major importance. I know no one apart from Mark Senior who thinks the Lib Dems will not end up net down against the Tories. How much net down is another argument whether one or fifty. Therefore to “make progress” you have to net gain against Labour. Did any Local results give you hope and if so in how many seats
What about the further defections confidently predicted?
Have they been delayed by today’s security issues?
Do we now expect them on Monday?
Prior to these two polls (and allowing for drift during a general election) the average of June is: Con 34.67% Lab 34.50% Lib Dem 18.17% Others 12.67%. This represents the following change on May 2007: Con -0.04% Lab +1.64% Lib Dem -1.12% Others -0.47%
Lib Dems at 18% in ICM (-3) and 15% in YouGov (nc)
105. Does she represent Enfield North Andrea? If she does the Cyprus thing may be a smart move as there are loads of Greeks in that seat.
Minister for the Olympics and Minister for London (Paymaster General) - The Rt Hon Tessa Jowell MP**
Does Tessa get Primarolo’s old job too?
112. Ian Jones, yes, sorry, I wrote Ealing, but I meant Enfield!
105. There is a large Cypriot community in Enfield.
101 - you must have put rather a lot of money on it then, if you are so sure. If free money is available…
Assistant Government Whip - Tom Watson MP
2 of the resigning PPSs also become Assistant Whips
I do think this is a Brown bounce that Labour will sustain for months. What happens after the party conference season is another matter.
But it could be a blip… like the flash of Tory leads during the fuel crisis in 2000. (I quite enjoyed the fuel crisis. Didn’t have enough petrol to go for our planned break in Suffolk so booked a last minute trip on Eurostar instead.)
I do think this is a Brown bounce that Labour will sustain for months. What happens after the party conference season is another matter.
But it could be a blip… like the flash of Tory leads during the fuel crisis in 2000. (I quite enjoyed the fuel crisis. Didn’t have enough petrol to go for our planned break in Suffolk so booked a last minute trip on Eurostar instead.)
No more Flint as “minister for Fitness”
DEPARTMENT FOR WORK AND PENSIONS
- Minister of State and Minister for Yorkshire and the Humber - Caroline Flint MP
112/116. Ok, thanks, I didn’t realize it, sorry
Malcolm Wicks has kept his position as Minister of State in the new Business department - I’m hopeful of continuing as his PPS as well.
78 Yokel
It is now clear that the second car was towed away to a Pound by the parking police. This casts a whole new light on the matter.
Either it is a new terrorist group targeting traffic wardens and their allies, or Al Quaeda is using new tactics to gain positive publicity and draw new recruits by attacking these targets.
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
- Parliamentary Under Secretary of State - Ann Keen MP
she was one of Brown’s PPS.
110. You were invting bets on the Locals in wales and next Election. I’m not minded to bet against you but I will invite your predictions to see what you want to bet on.
114 By Election - Fever!
119 Like a time trip back to the 1970’s was it not
110. Gives a Labour majority of about 11, if we throw in the SDLP and Dai Davies, and subtract the Shinners…
Btw, what does anyone think of the Nationalists future performance. Specifically, is there any point now in voting SNP in Westminster elections? They have been on a downward vote trajectory since 1997.
122 Thought you were PPS to Tango man
The main article has been updated
111. Any comments by LibDems on this now sustained mid to upper teens position.
Do you want a leadership contest, and if not, what do you think Ming can do to turn this around.
I am afraid I still just don’t see the LDs as at 15 points. Just cannot see it.
re 100 DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
- Minister of State - The Rt Hon Dawn Primarolo MP
Oh God! Well at least the good news lasted one day
PtP. I’ve taken your advice. But if Monolith likes the mud and Newcastle is like a bog, why’s it 50/1? Although you can barely get 13/2 the place on Betfair.
131 Well I didn’t know that Baroness Ashton was married to Peter Kellner (if Wikipedia is correct). So YouGov now has a connection with the Labour cabinet.
116 I doubt that Test bets, SBS, but your comment does rather remind me of a passage in Mike’s book where he indicates how he got involved in Political Betting, which was much the same way as I did. He noticed that people bet with their heads rather than their hearts and this could distort the odds and create value.
It can be argued, with some justification I think, that conservative punters bet heaviest and therefore when odds are wrong, they are more likely to skew against Labour, giving more value on the ‘left’ side. It depends on the market and it isn’t some iron law, but I think if you are going to discount the odds as a poll guide, you had better discount them in favour of Labour, and not, as I think Test is implying, the other way.
Anyway, a number of posters including me have been commenting recently that the value at present does seem to be in buying Labour seats or the equivalent in the various markets available.
The odds are however still behind the polls imo.
I’m a Lib Dem and would like to state this. Based on the average and allowing for election drift we seem to be at 18.25% (which if memory serves was the share of the vote in 1992, 1997 and 2001) so I think it means we’re being consistent.
133. “He noticed that people bet with their heads rather than their hearts and this could distort the odds and create value.”
Hmm?
See the Liberal Democrats in Southall are already pushing that it is them or Labour, using the Press Association briefing note of as supportive evidence.
Have they put a leaflet our yet?
“have they put a leaflet out yet”
129 - it’s a poor time for the LDs in the polls. I did not vote for Ming, and I think he will move on in a year or so. The party internally has some organisation now (there was very little a couple of years ago) and some good policy has been fleshed out.
The LDs are no longer courting the union vote that is fed up with Labour. CK would possibly have appeared on the picket line showing solidarity with the postal workers today to get union votes. Ming would never do that. That is sensible.
Personally I am very disappointed that “political principle” has prevailed over “the good of the country” so we have Shaun Woodward at the NI Office rather than Paddy. Bad call Ming! Coupled with the failure to work with other parties in Scotland, Wales and London, I do wonder where to next. If we can’t work with other parties are we to be a just think tank for the other parties? (In a sense we always have been.) And if so, is that such a bad thing if our policies end up getting implemented?
134 see 125
129 - mid to upper teens is historically high for the Lib Dems at this stage in a Parliament - see post at 34.
There is no wish to see another leadership election before the next general election.
131 Chris A
33/1 is the best you will get with the bookies. He’s fifties on Betfair because punters reckon that’s his chances of winning. His place chances are however reckoned to be very much better. This is very typical of Betfair. The place odds are true odds and not the result of some artificial formula - in this case 1/4 the win odds.
I would bet this one with the bookies, because although Monolith can win, its place chances at the bookies odds (effectively 8/1) give much better value than Betfair.
Incidentally, if you want another rather less speculative bet in the same race, River Althaar is also excellent valoe at 10/1 - again, go small each way stakes with the bookies.
135 It’s past my bedtime, Julian! You knew exactly what I meant!!
140. I think the Charles Kennedy era was highly abnormal because of the extraordinary weakness of the Tories. Was CK really so good or the Tories err the opposite I suspect the latter. I think the Lib dems would be fools to compare Ming or any future leader against that benchmark
142. Mine too, hence the inability to type anything other than irritating pedantry.
144 LOL
143- CK was able to connect with the public. He came across as less establishment than Ashdown. He was probably no more policy-lite than Ashdown. But he did well largely through circumstances. He only added about 1% in 2001, and profited greatly from Iraq in 2005.
However, if Ashdown had been leader in 2005 (and had opposed the war as leader too), I think there would be well over 100 LD MPs.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that a new ARSE poll of polls comprising ICM, CR, YouGov, MORI and Populus that gives :
Con 35.8% .. Lab 36.2% .. LibDem 16.6% .. Others 11.4%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 245 seats .. Lab 336 .. Lib Dem 40 .. Others 29.
Labour majority of 22.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND …. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ….. Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …. Anonymous Randon Selection of Electors.
PISSED .. Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator.
SOAMES .. System Of Amending Measured Election Scores.
C’mon Dan. I told francis off for spinning for the tories before. ‘History’ was blown out of the water from 2002 onwards. Previous Lib Dem highs of mid to upper teens pre 2002 were teamed with other positives. These are teamed with negatives, and with downward trends.
Andrea - Re 100 - Please tell me the Hodge-keeps-her-job story is a sick joke. Surely that puffed up, ghastly, out of touch, my-husband’s-a-judge-don’t-you-know, inept, evil, tuscany flying member of the harperson coven is not still there. Please, pretty please!
146. But of course he was strongly in favour………………
Re 149 - Nick - if you’re reading this, I am a Labour voter and that’s what I think of that ghastly gaggle!!
150 - hence my “if”.
Who has been sacked at junior minister/under-secretary level?
Joan Ryan (who is off to Cyprus), Nick Ainger, Ian Cawsey (Assistant Whip), Barry Gardiner, Stephen Ladyman…who else?
149. Jon, it’s not a joke…and I can understand your disappointment
WRT Enfield North, there are lots of Greek Cypriots in the seat. But there also lots of Turkish Cypriots. I think their numbers are not that different, and I’d advise any politician to steer clear of that issue, save in the most platitudinous terms. I can remember really bitter arguments in Hendon North Conservatives between pro-Turks and pro-Greeks. You don’t want to go there.
It’s good news for Labour, but a bounce was to be expected. I don’t think anything is going to save about 30 Labour seats, under any circumstances, next time round, however optimistic their MPs are.
155 I can vouch for that, SeanF. Very, very touchy issue.
153 from previous thread:
97 Good news for Ainger actually. He can now devote 100% to saving his Parliamentary seat. The Tories winning in May rather than Plaid was seriously not any good news for him. The Tories were already clear challengers at Westminster. That they managed to win at Cardiff Bay as well only adds to the momentum
by Punter June 29th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Blimey!
Andrea - 154 - Oh No! I’m having another whisky, maybe even a cigar. I’m going to pretend she doesn’t exist!
123.. Stroke of genius by them. I think with a populist approach like that they may have won.
Regards
Mohammed Ahmed Yokel.
Total Quisling
Oh go on, won’t any of the people who rubbished Mori after their last poll (which showed much the same picture as these two) break cover now and admit that maybe they aren’t quite the psephological geniuses and Mori the utter dunces they thought?
Benedict
Just remembered that you asked if I had a tip for tomorrow. I gave it earlier. In the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, small each way bets on Monolith (33/1) and Royal Althaar (10/1).
Cheers, good nite everybody and to those living in London, I hope your cars are safely parked.
161. Nope Moris past record speaks for itself. They may occasionally be close to the mark more often they’re way off. ICM is credible hence this thread. Mori is not
What has surprised me is just how unprincipled Brown has been in terms of the expectations he built in his supporters. All the talk of Labour rather than New Labour has been jettisoned, he has spoken about doing away with Union block voting, even appointed Digby Jones (quoted as saying he would take the Labour Whip and that Labour would “increasingly” become less ” in thrall” of the unions, who he hoped would “get into a 21st century agenda”.) He is the Change but not the one expected.
George Jones had a column on the disciplined and thorough spin operation the Brown camp have (article shorter in later online than when I first read it in the early hours, had there been some pressure?). So we all heard about Brown calling Blair in EU negotiations; and despite the promise by his press spokesman that all Cabinet news would be given out at midday yesterday the morning papers showed that all the favourites had been briefed.
So Brown’s election campaign is underway; he’ll occupy the centre on Education and NHS, the right on immigration and, what used to be perceived as the right, on civil rights and national security, he’ll be as Eurosceptic as he needs to be. A few token gifts to the left perhaps but it’s Cameron’s ground he wants. His focus on winning at the cost of whatever he has to throw overboard to do so is awesome; shame the Cornerstone and “core” vote Tories can’t grant Cameron the same leeway in his campaign.
Question is will this centrist, all the talents approach last past a Brown victory or will it fade away like the payment towards Council Tax given before the last election and seen no more afterwards?
164.”What has surprised me is just how unprincipled Brown has been in terms of the expectations he built in his supporters. All the talk of Labour rather than New Labour has been jettisoned”
He has spent the last year saying how he won’t go Left…not sure who was expecting him to immediately run to the Left (apart some tories fantasying about it)
155. Dead right about Cyprus and North London voters, Sean. My other half is from the Greek Cypriot community in Wood Green. Whenever the subject of Cyprus comes up, I suddenly find the newspaper extremely interesting . . .
Given that we’ve been living in a one-party state of late, as far as media reporting (BBC particularly) goes, it’s remarkable to see the Tory vote slip just 2 points in these new polls. Most people have probably forgotten the Conservatives still exist.
I always expected a Labour bounce as the nation went all misty-eyed over Blair’s departure - as I said the other night, even I was a bit choked watching the final PMQs. This was the main event this week, not the ta