Sean Fear’s Friday slot
June 29th, 2007-
Do Local Elections Point to Parliamentary Results?
Very often, the answer to this question is No. Good sets of local election results for the Conservatives in 2000 and 2004 were followed by big defeats in general elections the following year. More specifically, seats where a party has a big lead in local elections one year, may produce an equally big lead for another party at Parliamentary level. To take one example, the Liberal Democrats have been a strong force in Liverpool local government since 1973, yet have largely failed to transform that into success at Parliamentary level (David Alton’s success notwithstanding).
There are several obvious reason for this. Firstly, people split their votes in different types of election. The same voter might vote Liberal Democrat at local level, Labour at Parliamentary level, and UKIP at European level, for example. It is clear, likewise, that lots of people who vote Conservative in Wandsworth’s local elections, will have voted Labour in the last three general elections. Secondly, an incumbent MP can build up a level of popularity that outweighs that of their party locally. Gisela Stuart, for example, is popular in Edgbaston, and held her seat in 2001 and 2005, notwithstanding that the Conservatives generally lead by 20-25% in local elections in her constituency. Thirdly, local elections are usually held at different points in the electoral cycle to general elections. A proportion of voters will use local elections as a means of protesting against the government of the day, or will stay at home, before going out to vote for that government in a general election.
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However, local elections cannot be dismissed as entirely irrelevant to Parliamentary contests. Sometimes, they do point to long-term shifts in political allegiance at every level.
One example of this is the London overspill towns and estates, which were, for many years strongly supportive of Labour. In recent years, however, towns like Hatfield, Borehamwood, Crawley, Hemel Hempstead, and Harlow, have shown marked shifts away from Labour, which were backed up by big swings to the Conservatives at the 2005 general election. Such towns had shown considerable support for the Conservatives at Parliamentary level, in the 1980s, while continually voting solidly for Labour at local level. In the future, they can probably be regarded as Conservative in anything other than a bad year. Likewise, the collapse in Conservative support in the 1994 local elections, in places like Streatham, Hornsey and Wood Green, and Croydon North, pointed to a permanent shift in outlook among the voters in those places.
All parties depend on local councillors to keep going in many places. A local party can probably survive the occasional heavy defeat at local level, and keep its organisation going, but when it is beaten year in and year out in local elections, its activists will tend to drift away. At the same time, the voters will have got into the habit of voting for its opponents. There are quite a few parts of the country where one party was dominant for many years, and where there now seems to be no way back for it.
Last night’s by-election results were generally quite good for Labour, although there were some unusual local circumstances.
Sandwell MBC, Charlemont/Grove Vale. Conservatives 870, Labour 801, BNP 544, Liberal Democrats 238,Greens 71. Conservative hold. On the face of it, this shows a strong swing to Labour, compared with May. However, the outgoing Conservative councillor had been found guilty of a serious criminal offence, and the Conservatives actually did rather well to hold this.
Nuneaton & Bedworth DC, Slough. Labour 862, BNP 582, Conservative 499, English Democrat 102, Liberal Democrat 83. Labour gain from Conservative. The Conservatives won this ward in 2004, but Labour won it in 2006. This was still a very good result for Labour, and a very good result for the BNP also.
Milton Keynes UA, Whaddon. Labour 1108, Conservative 914, England First Party, 221, Liberal Democrat 129, UKIP 109, IND 49. Labour hold. The respective positions of Labour and the Conservatives are almost unchanged, compared to 2004.
Wigan MBC, Tydesley. Liberal Democrat 784, Labour 619, Independent 377, Conservative 170. Liberal Democrat hold. This showed a huge swing to Labour, compared with May. However, it must be pointed out that the outgoing Liberal Democrat councillor had been disqualified, and the victorious Liberal Democrat had just finished a period of disqualification. In the circumstances, the Liberal Democrats probably did well to retain the seat.
Pendle BC, Craven. Liberal Democrat, 632, Conservative 260, Independent 241, BNP 237, Labour 76. A solid Liberal Democrat hold.
Sean Fear, a London Tory, writes a weekly column here.
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Very good results for Labour and BNP, ok for the Tories. Poor results for the LibDems where they are becoming or are weak, reasonably good for the two results where they are established (Wigan is a good hold in the circumstances).
Milton Keynes UA, Whaddon.
3rd-England First Party, 221, 4th-Liberal Democrat 129
LibDems beaten into fourth place by a party that no-one has ever heard of! This won’t do. Maybe the problem really is Ming. Whatever - that is for the LibDems to decide.
The LibDems have worked very hard to get themselves into the credible third-party position that they now hold. Unless they pull their socks up, they risk throwing it all away.
Well, that’s not good for the Lib Dems. Even if the ward is weak for them, Milton Keynes is an authority where they tend to poll well.
England First was created by ex-BNP members who regard the BNP as too liberal. They got two councillors elected in 2006, in Darwen. Bizarrely, one of them left to found a new political party with an ex-Lib Dem councillor, called Forward Darwen, which I think won a seat in May.
3 “England First was created by ex-BNP members who regard the BNP as too liberal.”
Too liberal! Too liberal! May the saints preserve us!
Isn’t there a fourth reason why local results and GE results may diverge Sean, i.e. structurally differential turnout among the voters of different parties?
Some weeks ago I mentioned a poll, which seemed to suggest that BNP and UKIP were second choice for the majority of Tory voters. I was not right in this, although a considerable percentage of Tories were inclined to BNP/UKIP and had been misled by the way the poll had been reported on Conhome. Looking at these poll results it may be, that the majority of Tory voters second choice could be the BNP or UKIP and when asked by pollsters, and others are reluctant to admit it. The majority of Tories actually said their second choice were the Libdems, these results do not confirm that.
5, Possibly, but it’s hard to disentangle from the other three. With general election turnouts at c.60%, I don’t think it would make much differnce (ie the party which benefits from differential turnout at 35%, is probably still benefitting at 60%).
Or the effort put in by the parties. I know a few Conservative Associations that devote their lives to winning local elections but care little for the parliamentary seat.
4. It’s actually worth checking the BNP website now and again (just to see what the awful Nazis are thinking obviously..)
It’s a very strange brew. Not quite the racist insanity one might expect. Indeed a lot of it could come straight from UKIP, or from the manifesto of some old fashioned patriotic Socialist of some decades back - Peter Shore, maybe, or even Nye Bevan.
It certainly ain’t liberal, but it’s not overtly fascist either. It doesn’t want to go to war, it doesn’t like Europe, it just wants nice British families to be left alone to read about Robin Hood.
It’s a kind of wistful 50s paternalist socialism with a strong ethnocentric bias.
So I’d say there’s still a MAJOR opening in the market for a proper Fascist party.
9. Don’t kid yourself. Behind the rosy packaging this is the same bunch of Hitler worshippers it ever was. They have just finally cottoned on that goosestepping and sieg heils aren’t great vote winners.
9 If you visit the Stormfront website, you can see what Griffin’s critics are saying. Basically, they think he’s sold out over the “Jewish Question”, he’s too friendly to ethnic minorities, has made too many compromises with capitalism, and has betrayed the legacy of the Fuhrer.
10 I wouldn’t be so sure of that. When John Tyndall was in charge, the party numbered about 1,500 and were indeed Hitler-worshippers. Now it probably has about 10,000 members, and a lot of people who were involved with it under Tyndall have left. The Hitler-worshippers may be a relatively small proportion now. Certainly, many genuine Hitler-worshippers think Griffin is a sell-out.
10. Well, no. I disagree. I’m sure there is still a hardcore of bootboy ****bashers, and outright Holocaust deniers, etc etc, just as there is a hardcore of communists and ex communists in Labour. Like our very own Mister Palmer.
But the BNP these days is a more interesting, weird and insidious party than that. For instance, did you know that they propose that Britain reincorporates Ireland - or that the two nations unite - in a kind of British Isles alliance?
I didn’t. But they do. An utterly ludicrous policy, of course. But interestingly insane. The BNP can be seen as a weird pathology revealing a deeper sickness in the British body politics. A bizarre symptom which helps Doctor House diagnose the problem that ails us as a nation.
Just in case you’re wondering, I’m on my third glass of overtaxed French wine, here in Bangkok.
6 nor do these results support your thesis. On your simplistic view most BNP support is coming from the LbDems.
11 & 12. Almost sounds a bit like the die-hards and Cameron….lol
Report on UK Polling Report re YouGov poll in The Economist about expectations of Brown and Cameron.
Cameron seems to come out of this much better than other recent polls.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php
13 I am acquainted with a former Conservative Parliamentary candidate who’s now quite a prominent BNP member, and while he’s very socially conservative, he’s no Hitler-worshipper.
4
England First :its not uncommon amongst far left/right groups to splinter. The classic was the Imperial Fascist League, run by Arnold Leese, Leese was convinced that Oswald Mosley was an agent of the Jews, in fact he used to refer to the BUF as Kosher Fascists. For those on the left, fed up with the Labour Party were do you go? there is no real left wing party left in this country. The Communist Party split and irrelevant, the various Trotskyist groups, meet in pubs, one pub could probably hold all of the members, come to think of it one bar could! For the right (I use that term with some misgiving) there are alternatives. Fed up with the Conservative Party the BNP, which is probably attractive to a certain type of white working class voter, (not exclusively Conservative) who probably supported the Conservative party but does not feel comfortable with Cameron’s Liberal Conservative message, and UKIP which does appeal to the Simon Heffer type Conservative. That’s the difference, for the left, giving up politics is the alternative, for the right, there’s a home for you.
Afternoon all :).
An interesting and pretty accurate analysis by Sean F. as per usual. LD successes have tended to come on the back of solid local Government success and the key to taking for example May’s local election performance forward is to see where LD losses and Conservative advances equated to the Parliamentary situation. For example, the LDs took seats off the Tories in Eastbourne so that may be a seat to watch. On the other hand, Conservative successes in Windsor and Maidenhead probably suggest the LD challenge there is receding.
It is far too simplistic to look at local elections in terms of seats won and lost. Turnout, vote share and vote distribution is more interesting and illuminating. It probably means less for Conservatives to recapture dozens of seats in Conservative constituencies than to capture a few in Con-LD marginals.
Re: 9 - I do agree Sean T that BNP and the NF are two very different creatures as are UKIP and the Conservatives. I don’t agree that there is room for a “fascist” party but I do think there is a huge opportunity for a right-wing radical english nationalist party whose main tenets would be withdrawal from Europe, tax cuts, huge cuts in Government spending and an end to immigration.
The BNP don’t fit that criteria as they are a statist authoritarian party while UKIP has yet to fully engage with the electorate. We’ve seen in Europe how nationalist anti-immigration tax-cutting parties can gain significant support and this isn’t a new phenomenon. Back in 1973, Mogens Glistrup formed such a party out of nothing and finished second in the Danish General Election.
One scenario is that if the Conservatives were to suffer a fourth severe defeat, we could see a breakaway on the Right and a union with UKIP to form some form of English National Party which would advocate UKIP’s anti-EU policy in tandem with Thatcherite economics.
13. Oh come on. Doesn’t the Britain-Ireland thing have rather obvious parallels with Hitler’s views about ‘ein Reich, ein Volk, ein Fuhrer’? How all the historical German lands (and a few more) had to be reunited?
I repeat - the BNP leadership remains full of Nazi sympathisers, they are now just much cleverer at covering it up (not difficult if compared to Tyndall, really). The fact that openly Nazi groups are attacking Griffin et al. only shows how thick the former are - Griffin has done more for fascism in Britain than anyone since Mosley (excepting the substantial indirect contribution of Tony Blair).
18 You’ve got Respect if you’re on the Left, but their appeal is limited to some heavily Muslim areas. There’s also the Green Party.
If you’re a BNP member who thinks Griffin is a sell-out, there are a number of exotic alternatives. The National Front, England First, Third Way, White Nationalist Party, November 9th Society, and perhaps even more.
18. Cameron’s difficult challenge is to bring back on board the UKIP and non-racist BNP voters (probably most BNP voters) without alienating the centrist Worcester woman.
Margaret Thatcher managed it, but she was opposed by Michael CND Foot, so it wasn’t hard.
Cameron should certainly let Hague and others press the Europe button, and not worry about the consequences. He’ll get the approval of the press, he’ll chime with the people. Even better Hague’s opponent is the deeply awakward and rather unlikeable europhile policywonk Milliband. Hague will win that populist battle hands down.
[Hague should of course be leader now. *sigh*]
But Europe ain’t enough to reel in the UKIPs and BNPs. Cameron needs to send out some robust signals on immigration that won’t alienate “nice” people. Attacking arranged/forced marriages and the scandal of honour killings might be a way of doing it. You sound feminist and progressive, but also wary of more immigration. He could also attack Muslim homophobia, without the Guardian being able to lay a glove on him.
Go for it, Dave.
22 - I don’t believe most BNP voters are “non-racist”. I’d say the vast majority of them are.
Remember, to be racist you don’t have to seek the extermination of all other races.
22 - I’m afraid I and many others think Milliband is rather likeable. He’s gone down extremely well in his constituency.
Ben`Brogan on some new ministerial appointments
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/06/m-is-made-secur.html
22. Yes - a clever way to do this would be to use the ‘Pim Fortuyn Critique’ of immigration, which emphasises the threat immigration poses to liberal society. Ought to be especially effective with women and gay voters. With theatre performances being closed down due their being picketed by religious fanatics this critique has plenty of relevance in the UK.
9 - much as I have expressed concern as to your deep interest in far right politics Mr.T I think this:
“It’s a kind of wistful 50s paternalist socialism with a strong ethnocentric bias.”
is very well put
kingbongo @ 14 re BNP support coming from LibDems — although simplistic, that may be right insofar as both parties attract large protest votes. It is easily possible that the protest vote has merely swung from LD to BNP, rather than there being any great enthusiasm for a new Anglo-Irish reich or whatever it is the BNP proposes.
“The classic was the Imperial Fascist League, run by Arnold Leese, Leese was convinced that Oswald Mosley was an agent of the Jews, in fact he used to refer to the BUF as Kosher Fascists.”
Arnold Leese was a vet who served in the Indian Army, and wrote the definitive work on diseases among camels. In fact, I think there is a form of bacteria found in camels that’s named after him. Many of his followers actually believed that Mosley was secretly a Jew.
Unlike most Nazis, he didn’t deny the Holocaust. He thought it was a good thing. After the War, he even trained his pet cat to give the Nazi salute.
Interesting article Sean. Many tahnks.
24. Miliband is an extremely bright idiot. I’ve met them before. So bright he’s gauche and off-putting.
But maybe he will prove me wrong. Let’s wait and see. I think he’s crap on TV.
23. This all depends, natch, on yr definition of “racism”. Mine is the fairly tight definition of ‘believing in the inherent superiority of one race over another’. I don’t think most BNP voters really believe that, or even think that deeply about it.
I think they are xenophobic and ethnocentric. They don’t particularly like foreigners and they prefer to hang out with people like themselves. In this they are probably like the majority of human beings on the planet.
Indeed scientific data shows they are: I’ve done articles on this and read the research. ALL races are ethnocentric. Interestingly, probably the least ethnocentric are the British, probably the most are the French and the Jews. A finding backed up by anecdotal observation.
26 - there’s as much threat to liberal society from Christian fundamentalists (in fact more), and that can’t be blamed on immigration.
23 - I would adopt a less conveniently tight definition that, but in case I think most BNP voters would fit it.
There are some people who vote BNP as a protest. Those people are stupid and probably a little bit racist. The rest are equally stupid but much more racist.
32. Rubbish. When was the last time they set off bombs in London? Or engaged in ‘honour’ killings? Or organised forced marriages? 1650 perhaps?
29. “Unlike most Nazis, he didn’t deny the Holocaust. He thought it was a good thing. After the War, he even trained his pet cat to give the Nazi salute”
This may be one of the funniest paragraphs I’ve ever read on pb.com
SeanF, I salute your dry humour. I also liked your extremely understated yet hilarious description of that disgraced Tory councillor on the previous thread. The one who “pimped his mentally ill wife”.
You have to laugh, or you’d cry, as Jack Straw would say after a major terrorist incident.
32 What threat do fundamentalist Christians pose to liberal society?
36 Christian Rock Music. Aarrgghh!!
36. its the methodists …they want to stop his beer
32. Yes stonch, this is utter drivel. The kind of stuff trotted out by silly people who won’t admit there is a problem within certain ethnic communities. Oh but look at all the bombed abortion clinics!
What. In Britain? Please. Desist. You are a smart guy. This argument demeans yr intelligence.
Mm - I’d say most Christian fundamentalism comes from outwith these shores, Stonch. Certainly not much of it in the CofE. The only really home grown variant is the wee frees.
38. Nonsense, everyone knows us Methodists drink the most. We just keep it quiet!
35 Thanks. I admit, I laughed out loud when I first read about this, in a book called “The National Front”, by Martin Walker, the Guardian journalist. It was written in 1976 when the NF looked as though it might make an electoral breakthrough. What makes it a very good book is that Walker actually liked some of the NF leaders, while detesting their politics, so he writes humourously and sometimes sympathetically about them. It’s difficult to write a good book about people you hate.
I just want to say that on a day when a bunch of nutters try to kill hundreds of Londoners that whatever differences I have with anyone on this site are nothing to the total and utter contempt I have for them.
I hope they are found, prosecuted and sentenced according to the best traditions of British justice.
32. Perhaps well-known Christian extremists are the ones leaving these bomb-device cars all over London today. Has anyone seen Cliff Richard this afternoon? He certainly wasn’t at Wimbledon, I saw the coverage.
Suspicious, if you ask me.
I hope they are found, prosecuted and sentenced according to the best traditions of British justice
No chance. labour abolished hanging a long time ago lad.
32 More of a threat to Liberal society from Christian fundamentalists?
Get a grip, Stonch!
I believe Cliff was once associated with a group called the Shadows. How sinister is that! BTW there money to be made on Cliff…
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,11014-2007300042,00.html
10/1 is a pretty poor price on Cliff singing at the Wimbledon Men’s Final.. given that, according to Stonch, he’s gonna be singing like a canary in Paddington Green Police Station, explaining what happened to all his patio heaters.
I’m available for panto this year.
Election Results: Thursday 28th June 2007.
Barnoldswick TC, Craven
LD Shelley Franklin 706 (59.3), BNP 253 (21.3), Ind 231/201 (19.4).
Majority 453. Turnout 35.2%. LD gain from Ind.
Milton Keynes UA, Whaddon
Lab 1108 (43.8; +0.9), Con 914 (36.1; -1.4), England First 221 (8.7; +8.7), LD Alfred Vella 129 (5.1; -3.3), UKIP 109 (4.3; -3.4), Ind 49 (1.9; +1.9).
Majority 194. Turnout 39%. Lab hold. Last fought 2006.
Nuneaton and Bedworth BC, Slough
Lab 862 (40.5; -2.4), BNP 582 (27.3; +27.3), Con 499 (23.4; -15.0), English Democrats Putting England First 102 (4.8; +4.8), LD Frank Mills 83 (3.9; -14.8).
Majority 280. Turnout 40.6%. Lab gain from Con. Last fought 2006.
Pendle BC, Craven
LD Shelley Franklin 632 (43.7; -3.2), Con 260 (18.0; -7.8), Ind 241 (16.7; -10.6), BNP 237 (16.4; +16.4), Lab 76 (5.3; +5.3).
Majority 372. Turnout 34.7%. LD hold. Last fought 2007.
Sandwell MBC, Charlemont with Grove Vale
Con 870 (34.5; -3.0), Lab 801 (31.7; +6.8), BNP 544 (21.6; +1.3), LD Martin Roebuck 238 (9.4; -7.9), Green 71 (2.8; +2.8).
Majority 69. Turnout not available. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Wigan MBC, Tyldesley
LD Robert Bleakley 784 (40.2; -22.9), Lab 619 (31.7; +16.4), Ind 377 (19.3; +19.3), Con 170 (8.7; -4.0), [Green (0.0; -8.9)].
Majority 165. Turnout 19%. LD hold. Last fought 2007.
37 No, Jonathan, it’s not Christian Rock Music that is their worst attack on Liberal society - it is their complete inability to clap in rythmn with it. Evangelical Christians have the worst sense of rythmn that I have ever come across.
50 Now this is the kind off stuff that we’re in the British Library for. Just to think that in a hundred years people will be reading this with owe.
48 A pb.com panto - now that’s a thing. I want to see Iain Dale’s widow twanky. On 2nd thoughts.
32 - utter nonsense
owe=awe
Whilst we meander through the lower reaches of the Brown government appointments ….. no doubt poor Nick Palmer glued to a phone awaiting his call to be Minister for Moggies, may I say how I laughed at the fag end of the last thread as two Sassenachs, seanT and kingbongo opined on the merits of malt whisky !!!
It’s like Tories discussing grammar schools or the Liberal Democrats the virtues of youthful leadership.
Now chaps leave important matter of state to the big boys !!
So has this bomb screwed up Browns start as PM, or is it something he will turn to his advantage?
To get slightly more serious for a moment - and I’m off to watch a DVD in a sec - am I the only one missing the tough and lugubrious tones of John Reid today?
I know he was hated by everyone on the left, and many on the right, but there was just something about him… he seemed tough but efficiently ruthless. A Glasgow bruiser but with a brain. The kind of man you want as Home Secretary during an ongoing battle with Islamic terrorism. And I think I’m not alone - I think lots of ordinary Britons rather liked Reid, for these reasons.
By contrast the huffing and puffing of Brown in his shed, the invisible remarks of Jacqui Smith, and the ludicrous statement of Jack Straw re the outrage ‘These things happen’ just don’t cut the Colman’s. At all.
Sorry guys, but when you sacked Blair and kicked out Reid you lost maybe 70% of the charisma quotient of your Cabinet. Now the nation needs reassurance and…hmmm….
56 Yeah, I think the way he responded to the Muslim extreminst when he was giving his speech, his “There will be no no-go areas for non-muslims” was something I think resonated with alot of people.
Jack Straw’s pitifully gay response to the Haymarket bomb - “these things happen” - is grating more and more, the more and more wine I drink, here in my hotel room.
This is the same man who was seen to bow - to BOW - to Valery Giscard d’Estaing at the door of Number 10. He’s also the same guy who said, live on TV, “the Prophet Mohammad, peace be upon him”.
One asinine gesture could be seen as carelessness. Two, you start to think.
But three??
56 Seant. The other day, you had a go at people for getting sentimental at the departure of Blair from the HofC, and now you say that you miss REID!? What! You miss “Mr ID cards”?
Good riddance to both of them!
58 Have you seen the response of the new Home secretary. Good I thought.
Sean, that wine you’re drinking……
it doesn’t travel well, does it?
Please note the difference between English Democrats and the England First Party. I was not aware that the England First Party thought the BNP were too liberal. The unionist BNP talk about creating a federal British isles whereas the nationalist England First Party are only interested in England.
58 seanT. If we added up your intersting gestures, might they add up to more than three ?? Mmmmhhhh
Baroness Neuberger and Lord Lester will be “advisors” to the Government.
According to the BBC website; “…the prime minister’s official spokesman said …they would be expected to take the Labour whip and vote with Labour peers.”
Excuse me, but isn;t this a de fact defection? What are the LibDems doing. Shouldn’t Ming expel them from the party?
61 Augustus. seanT’s probably drinking Laphroaig and Andrew’s Liver Salts !!
62 That’s not the main reason for the EFP’s existence though.
64 Yes, that is a defection.
64 Disraeli. I think the report is misleading. You might also read it as those presently without peerages would be expected to vote with Labour, whereas the Lib Dem advisors are already peers.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6251788.stm
59, 60, 61, 62, 63….
OK guys, I get the message. I am a tad squiffy. Probably talking rubbish. Espensive rubbish, too - Thais put a 200% tax on all wine. Yikes.
But I do miss John Reid, I kinda liked him. He was my secret guilty political pleasure. The way some people actually liked the Wombles, but would never admit it, I liked John Reid. Sorry. I suspect I was not alone, judging by the polls. Dont any of you guys have guilty political pleasures? An odd admiration for John Redwood? An inexplicable urge to vote for Tommy Sheridan? Come on, fess up.
And Jack Straw’s “these things happen” was a reasonable contender for the crassest remark of the year.
But yes, point taken - I’m off to watch a DVD. Stay safe, Londoners.
60 Jonathan. Yes the new Home Secretary was surprisingly good. A little nervous herself at suddenly being thrust in to the limelight, but very matter of fact and reassuring. So far, it almost feels as if a new party has taken power after a General Election!
The other thing about local elections,(surprise surprise) is that people often vote on local issues!
Throw in minuscule turnouts, uncontested seats, and strong independents and “fringe” parties, and I find it fanciful that any hard conclusions can be drawn from local results - especially from the entirely artificial “national vote totals” produced every year….
68 Yes Jack, you are right - you can read it that way. Whether by accident or design, though, the report DOES give the strong impression that the LibDems and Labour are cosying up together. The LibDems do not want the public to think this - it is an absolute gift to the Tories. (Not that this bothers me of course!)
FLEET STREET CLOSED AFTER ANOTHER SUSPECT VEHICLE FOUND…
69 OK, Sean since you asked…
I would like to confess to a Richard Shepherd, an Alex Salmon and (believe it or not) the late David Ervine. And I would also like a John Denham taken into consideration as well.
73 Fingers crossed we stay lucky and they don’t go off. Huge respect to the police and particularly the guys who make them safe. Keep up the good work!!
70. Do you think Brown will call for an early GE or is it too risky to lose an overall majority? From a personal point of view the next GE will produce a hung parliament with the Tories winning an absolute majority in England but Labour having most seats overall. Gordon Brown will be Prime Minister (and England First Minister but sits in a non English constituency - not very democratic) with the support of the Lib Dems, I think the devolution time bomb will explode, and the Tories will have to play the English card because its the only thing that will win them votes. Denying the existence of England and then breaking us into little ‘regions’ is nothing short of dictatorship and hatred of all things English. I don’t believe this regionalism is the work of the EU, its the combined works of unionists from all persuations led by their anti-English Labour masters trying to buy votes and support from Scotland, Wales and Ireland!!!
You’re not alone, I liked David Irvine too. Surprisingly sensitive and articulate. Indeed the extremists on both sides of the Irish Troubles were, perplexingly, often much more articulate than the moderates.
I always noticed that the statements made officially for the IRA (they had some special name, Patrick O’Shaughnessy or something) were very often written in the most lucid yet lyrical English.
Paisley, too, has proved himself an unexpectedly deep and intriguing politician.
77 - the IRA statements were signed by a P.O’Neill (of the Irish Republican Information Bureau in Dublin or something similar)
Guilty pleasures:-
Alex Salmond (so good it’s just annoying) but nobody else in his party at all, Peter Bottomley, Peter Tatchell - but nobody else in his party, Richard Shepherd… and of course, Caroline Flint.
Thank you is due to Henry G for his Wimbledon tip today - Ferrero. Those who followed the advice could now either hang in there for fair chance of full pay out…or hedge and go comfortably all green. Very good spot…the odds should clearly have been much closer to evens.
77. The IRA used to sign their statements “P. O’Neill”, a pseudonym invented by IRA Chief of Staff Sean Mac Stiofain (born John Stephenson in London, 1928 of English Protestant parents.)
The theory that “P O’Neill” was a reference to Sir Phelim O’Neill who led a rebellion against the English in 1641 was denied by the IRA.
81. It’s quite funny that the original IRA founders were from Protestant and/or English backgrounds, however more recently I have heard some very strong pro-English comments coming from Irish catholics who are far more pro-England than any other minority group. Irony? Its Britain and unionism they dislike and Irish nationalists now know the English are their natural ally!
79 SBS - Peter Tatchell ?!?!?!?!?!?
In the words of the Good Doctor Paisley, and King Lear, “Never, never, never, never, never!”
Good to see both Sean’s (T and F) on excellent form. :-):-):-)
The discussion about fascists is an all time classic, it will keep me laughing through the weekend.
cheers !
83 - I saw Tatchell at Any Questions in Reading in 2005. He came across really well, but did didn’t have much competition. Sarah Teather, David Lammy. Two-brains Willetts was there but he was totally kebabed on the first question - can’t recall what it was - and never recovered his composure.
We won’t go into the thorny issue of Tatchell in Oxford East. That really annoys me. I used to know Steve Goddard, and he would be a fine MP.
Green politicians are usually so dull. Remember Sarah Parkin, Penny Kemp. No, you do surprise me! Even David Icke was dull before he went gaga. But Tatchell has a star quality needed for a maverick in a loony party. As does Salmond. And Nigel Farage. (Kilroy, on the other hand induces nausea in me.)
Press sources I cannot elaborate on, so don’t ask, suggest bad poll for the Tories in one of the papers tomorrow. I have no further details.
86 - as I keep saying, expect a sustained slender Labour lead for the next few months.
87 - does anybody (other than Test) know which poll is due?
Stonch Is your opinion of the BNP as extensively evidence based as your opinions on Conservative party members?
If so it can be discounted.
O/T but re 115 last thread.
John W what a load of rubbish. You think that what’s happening in Iraq at the moment is “practical” and is “working”? Also if it’s one rule for the Africans - they’ve got to take responsibility for “their” continent - then why not the Arabs? We should be out of Iraq now and if we say we have influence with Saudi Arabia then their troops should be there if it needs foreign troops to keep the peace.
88. I think ICM (Guardian) and YouGov (Telegraph) are both due.
Both are dire is what I hear.
90 - we had our chance at creating a beacon of democracy in the Middle East. The time was 1991 and the place was Kuwait. Never really understand how the “liberation” involved handing it back to the Emir. It’s a bit like the line in Schindler’s Ark / List about being “liberated by the Soviet Army.” (I watched the film in Czech Rep first time, and this line drew an ironic groan!)
Now the Emir is a decent type, perhaps, but it was not a liberation if you hand it back to an autocracy. Should have made democracy work in the Middle East a long time ago.
85 - “We won’t go into the thorny issue of Tatchell in Oxford East. That really annoys me.”
What annoys you about it?
Jack W: no, I’m here, just stupefied by the last thread featuring a zillion posts by seanT and a zillion more by Martin Day, all with a hundred smileys each. Have you thought of starting your own blogs, fellows?
94 - recently in the Indy, PT said “The Labour MP for Oxford East, Andrew Smith, supported the Iraq war, foundation hospitals, student top-up fees, ID cards, nuclear power and restrictions on civil liberties. He deserves to lose. The Tories don’t stand a chance in Oxford East.” - can’t disagree with that.
Oxford East is nominally a LD seat next time on the new boundaries. The LDs opposed all those things. The net result of PT standing may well be the re-election of Smith who supported all those things.
What relevance is whether the Tories stand a chance there? They are in a poor third place.
Wayne David (Caerphilly) is the new Welsh whip, Kim Howells (Pontypridd) stays at the Foreign Office, Huw Irranca-Davies (Ogmore) becomes Hain’s Deputy. Nick Ainger (Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire) returns to the backbenches
97. Wayne David was one of the resinging PPS last September
96- Andrew Smith is a decentish MP. But if I lived in Oxford East (as I one did), I would rather get either Tatchell or Goddard next time round. But I suspect that the good folk of Cowley, Iffley and Headington will get Andrew Smith again. Thanks to Tatchell.
64. Not totally sure but I believe that Lord Stevens is also a Lib Dem. The quesion surely that needs asking, especially by backwoodsmen Labour guys n gals, is why are they all so poor that they can be replaced as advisers by these Lib Dems. Is Gordon Brown actually secretly so impressed with what has happened in Scotland, where Labour have implemented largely Lib Dem policies over many years, that he’s looking for a way of doing the same in England and Wales and taking the credit? After all, remember, his first ever decision as Chancellor was to chuck the Labour manifesto position in the bin and adopt the Lib Dem policy of an independent central bank.
Thaks for the Ferrero tip reminder. £10 not bad for a few minutes tinkering.
Ferrero home and hosed. Thank you, Henry G.
Now £120 up on my Wimbledon book.
Looking forward to tomorrow’s tip.
ConservativeHome.com reporting two polls tomorow with leads for Labour.
ICM - Labour 39% - Cons 35%
100. Possible, but his English regionalisation agenda is the problem. We don’t want to be partitioned into powerless regions and that’s what Brown is doing. He hates England with so much passion.
Re 102,Peter the Punter, Ferroro won?
104. Change from last ICM (Sun Telegraph, fieldwork ended 31 May):
Con -2, Lab +7.
Change from last ICM in Guardian (fieldwork ended 20 May):
Con +1, Lab +7
106 Benedict he did. The price was fluctuating wildly with every point.
New thread on tomorrow’s polls
I was first with the news for once! Congrats Nick Pslmer but remember that tomorrow is still June.
Re 108, Peter, well, well done Henry, I look forward to tomorrows tip!
96. “Oxford East is nominally a LD seat next time on the new boundaries. The LDs opposed all those things. The net result of PT standing may well be the re-election of Smith who supported all those things.”
And that’s why Gordon should introduce PR! Right?
(I’m sure that wasn’t your intention, but honestly, you just gave as good an argument for it as I’ve ever seen.)
95. SeanT already has a blog - click the link on his name. But I guess he mostly prefers to post here for the arguments his posts always provoke.
105. “We don’t want to be partitioned into powerless regions”
This is a myth. there are VAST amounts of decisions already taken at regional level which neither MPs nor Council leaders get a look in on. To show you the power of these bureaucrats we have a situation locally where on a 6 million pound project some faceless berk in Wigan or Warrington or Manchester is telling local people that, in a major town centre re-jig, a bus stop for the park-and-ride can not be placed in front of the war memorial because it offends his sense of aesthetics. Never mind that all the local members and officers think there is nowhere at all else for this to go without clogging up a bus lane with parked buses and destroying the local traffic flow. Joined-up thinking nil, regional bureaucrats 6. The NHS, too, is full of monstrous regional decisions where there is effectively no local or national democratic input at all. Same with the Environment agency. Whether Gordon Brown wants to change any of that, we shall have to see.
zebidee: the point about having advisers from outside is that it shows a willingness to listen outside the party box. You feel we should insist on only listening to ourselves?
105 - That’s a bit over-the-top. It’s just that if you create a federation with England as one of the constituent parts you face the problem Yugoslavia had (of one partner - Serbia - dominating the others, and basically taking the p***)
We’ve avoided this for centuries (except for the Irish debacle) due to the fact that the English pretended to be British instead, and the Scots and Welsh were happy to hang around with us as they didn’t think we were taking the piss (too much). Or when the English did, mainly it was the Home Counties/London types that did so, and they took the p*** out of the Northerners at the same time.
Now we seem to have ballsed things up slightly with the mess of the devolution settlement, and introducing successful regional parliaments is about the only way to save the Union. If it can be saved. If it is even worth saving.
This isn’t about anyone’s personal vitriol (except, perhaps, yours).
Please leave the hyperbole at the door before entering.
Cheers!
107
So who’s for an early election now!!
Further to Arnold Leese. my sister-in-law’s husband, a policeman in Guildford during the war arrested him, under section 14b (?)
Went they took him to Guildford nick, Leese smashed up his cell in a rage, and tried to set fire to the police station.
112 - “(I’m sure that wasn’t your intention, but honestly, you just gave as good an argument for it as I’ve ever seen.)”
No, it was very much in my mind as I wrote it. I fear Oxford East will be like the Richmond by-election in 1988(?), where both the SDP and the Liberals piled up the votes separately, allowing a young chappie called Billy Hague to get in.
117 Exactly my thoughts. T’s celebrity status will do a Nader and let Smith in when he should already be planning retirement Status
97 Good news for Ainger actually. He can now devote 100% to saving his Parliamentary seat. The Tories winning in May rather than Plaid was seriously not any good news for him. The Tories were already clear challengers at Westminster. That they managed to win at Cardiff Bay as well only adds to the momentum