Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?
June 30th, 2007
Is July a good by election month for the LDs?
One of the big bets of the Gordon Brown era has been that “Labour losing a by election” might be the first to happen from a range of options listed by William Hill. Given that almost all the other items in the market - “Raith Rovers winning promotion”, “A full UK withdrawal from Iraq”, “Gordon and Sarah having another child” etc - seem far more remote the 10/1 that was available on Wednesday looked great value.
This was one of those bets you just had to go for quickly and punters stormed in. Within hours the price tightened to 5/1. It’s now at 3/1. What makes it attractive is that even if the party holds Southall and Sedgefield on July 19th the bets will still be valid until one of the other options comes about.
So could those who got money on, including me, be looking forward to a nice profit in less than three weeks? How vulnerable is Labour in Sedgefield and Southall?
A site regular, pobedonoscev, has sent me the above table showing how the support for the main parties changed, compared with the previous general election, in all the by elections that have been held in July over the past quarter of a century.
So of the 13 seats that have had July by elections the Lib Dems have picked up four and safely defended another one. The chart also shows how even in those places that it failed to win the party saw biggish increases in its vote share.
Quite why July is special is hard to explain - but the hours of daylight are much longer, the summer holidays are starting, and many more volunteers are available to flood into the constituencies.
Where the Lib Dems out-gun the other parties is in the literature that they produce and the ability to deliver it, sometimes almost daily, to nearly every household. They have also got great expertise in knowing what messages to put over when.
On June 29th last year, almost in July, the party nearly pulled off a sensational result in Bromley even though the national polls were all going for Cameron’s Tories. From third place at the general election they overtook Labour and got to within 633 votes of victory.
A challenge for Labour is that it finds it harder to get its vote out when the government of the country is not at stake.
On a personal note I was due to host a Lib Dem quiz night in Bedford this weekend. It got cancelled on Friday because all the key players are off in Southall 70 miles away.
Mike Smithson
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Re the previous thread.
No two ways about it - that’s a nice bounce. I think I did predict one, though - along with many other people - a while back. I reckoned it would last six-nine months.
Let’s wait and see. Congrats to the lefties, anyway.
However, a report in this morning’s Mail might cloud, somewhat, all the Labour optimism:
“Two of Tony Blair’s most trusted former aides are set to be charged over the cash-for-honours affair.
The Crown Prosecution Service is poised to bring the pair, and possibly a Labour donor, to trial over claims peerages were traded for loans to the party.
Mr Blair’s chief fundraiser Lord Levy, No 10 gatekeeper Ruth Turner and millionaire Sir Christopher Evans are expected to be informed of the decision to press charges late next month. All three are on police bail.”
This could be a seriously unpleasant distraction for Brown. Might shorten or tarnish the honeymoon.
Today’s Wimbledon tip Berdych to beat Lee 3-1 in sets @ 3/1 with http://www.skybet.com
Interesting coverage of the polls. They were taken 27-28, during Blair’s last PMQs and Brown’s trip to the palace/Cabinet.
“After a difficult month, Mr Cameron will be relieved to see the Conservatives rise to 35%, up one on last month.
The main losers are the Liberal Democrats, whose support has shifted to Labour. The party is on 18%, down three on last month. The rating suggests the Lib-Dems have been trading too heavily on Labour’s unpopularity, especially over Iraq . It also suggests that the orderly transition betweeen Tony Blair and Mr Brown has gone down well.
The Conservatives had been bracing themselves for a Brown bounce, and privately believe the new prime minister is going to dominate the agenda for at least a fortnight. Mr Cameron’s staff were relieved the Tory vote remained solid, but will be worried that leads on a raft of policy issues, including health, have dissipated. The Tories are holding back their policy review reports for some weeks and Mr Cameron will soon reshuffle his shadow cabinet.
Research for the poll began on Wednesday after Mr Brown became prime minister and was completed on Thursday night, after the new Cabinet was appointed.”
Iain Dale has this from Norfolk Blogger. I think it spot on, and while Dale would say that wouldn’t he I think his headline is right too “Come Hither said the spider to the Fly.”
“I am at a loss as to what the Liberal Democrats or the country gains from having two Lib Dem peers act as advisers to Gordon Brown. collusion. Does anyone in their right mind believe that Baroness Neuberger or Lord Lester will hold sway or influence Gordon brown in their advisory capacity ? Will it further the cause of Liberal Democracy ? Or will it allow the Liberal Democrats to be labelled as Gordon Brown’s Poodles? As far as I am concerned, anyone who wants to work with the Labour government whilst the Labour Party has a majority should resign their party membership and join the Labour Party. Alternatively they should be stripped of their membership.There are enough grassroots campaigners working their socks off on the ground without these peers undermining everything the party campaigners are trying to do by allowing the Lib Dems to be seen as working with Labour.This is a gift for the Tories and a major gaffe by the Lib Dems. Wake up Ming to what is going on!”
1. considering he was the chap that spent the money can he be charged with handling stolen goods ?
Mike S. “I was due to host a Lib Dem quiz night…. ”
Mmmhhhhhh ……
Q1 - To the nearest square inch how much space should a bar chart cover on the front page of election literature ?
Q2 - What is the subject on page 587 of Rennard’s By-Election Guide ?
Q3 - How many variations of PR operate in elections in San Marino ?
Q4 - Name the favourite four quiche flavours found in the Cheadle Cooks Companion of 1997 ?
Q5 - To the nearest dozen how many 2004 female Lib Dem district councillors had beards ?
Q6 - What is the average sandal size of Sutton and Cheam Lib Dem members ?
Q7 - Which company provided Ming with his House of Commons stair lift ?
2 Thanks Henry. I’m on.
Are you keeping a tally of your Wimbledon results? I make it you are about five points up, but I’ve not been sticking to your staking plan. I’ve been betting about £30 per tip and am now £150 up.
Btw, I’ll repeat my tips for today’s Northumberland Stakes (3.20 Newcastle) - Monolith 33/1, and River Alhaarth 10/1 - both small stakes e.w. Good place value in this race - 1/4 odds for first four home.
6 LOL!
Brilliant Jack, and if Mike bans you, I’ll conduct the appeal on your behalf.
7 River Alhaarth just taken out of race. No reason given.
re 6. A couple of the questions were:-
Whose campaign slogan was “Vote for XXXX and your children will weigh more?
and
What was LBJ talking about when he said..“Did you ever think that making a speech on XXXXXX is a lot like pissing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else.”
PtP - is Monolith still your tip for the Northumberland Plate? It’s moved to 59/1 on Betfair
The Lib Dems and the Conservatives might turn a byelection by working on Gordon Brown’s three Achlles heels.
One is the conomy. Contrary to the continual praise of Brown’s economy in the media, people will have noticed that inflation is going up, and that the CPI is a gross distortion of actual inflation excluding housing costs and taxation. Household bills are also rising fast, and people are getting short of money. At what point will voters notice that the economy is heading for/is in choppy waters?
Another potential issue that good campaigning could chrystallise for voters is the EU Constitution and the lack of the promised referendum. These issues are equally good for Conservative campaigners, but Lib Dems will probably hit them harder.
Then there is the Iraq War.
Good campaigning could hurt Gordon Brown as he is far more vulnerable to criticism than has been realised so far, given that the coronation and the glitz has been taking centre stage. People obviously want the building up of hope and expectation but reality lurks around every corner.
Just out of interest I asked Labrookes yesterday for odds on the Liberal Democrats winning both by elections. Thought might get
100-1!
Response, there is only one Sedgefield and we have no odds yet!!!!
Very suprised to learn about Southall.
Lib Dems seem organised there, judging by the mailings being sent out. Seems they feel that they missed out at Bromley because they did not get active enough in the first week. Looks as if Mr Rennard is in charge.
Personally I think Sedgefield offers the better opportunity, nobody will expect them to win, and their vote appears to be holding up better in the North.
But to win either in the current overall situation would be an achievment. They would need Conservative votes particularly in Southall.
11 Yes, Mike, but you’ve got to weigh the better win odds with Betfair against the place odds available with the bookies.
I’ve had £75 ew at 33/1 with Bet365 (guarantee better of price taken and SP) and a small top-up win only with Betfair at 60/1. I may lay that off if the price shortens.
The place odds for this race are very attractive though.
Pervese it may seem but they may find Sedgefield easier. The Tories have a stronmg candidate and it looks like Grant Shapps is running a tight ship, obviously light years from the master but enough perhaps to prevent the mega squezze we’ve seen previously. BY contrast as the Tories throw the kitchen sink at Ealing the Lib Dems may well have Sedgefield to themselves. Throw in a quite a few Labour voters raw that after 24 years Blair threw them away like used kleenex as soon as he had no more need of them, not even bothering to see out his term as MP like Major and it could be closer than many think. There may well be a squeeze on Tories in Ealing but resistance seems tougher than usual. In Sedgefield, if the Lib Dem approached Reg Keys that could be a seriously good idea
6 Jack W is on fine fettle this morning.
7 peter the punter giving his saturday tips.
1 seanT wittering on about some non event, that is cash for honours probably lower on people’s political radar than the EU treaty, which is marginally less interesting than reading the telephone book
4 punter- the collective neurosis that has become the LD’s- I heard Woody Allen was interested in making a film on them- excellent comic material
3 and squadron leader Test (formerly commentator)- obviously people loathe Brown, despise Lab- they all just got carried away when they were polled on Wednesday
and pbCOM carries on its merry way meandering through another Saturday, safe in the knowledge that its comments will be recorded forever.
I’d like to associate myself with debbie lunn’s amiable post last night - I agree with all of it.
On topic, I don’t currently expect Labour to lose either by-election, but I’d think Ealing the more likely because the other parties can focus their efforts in London more easily.
The poll shift on issues like the NHS and education are an illustration of an oddity that has been pointed out before by, I think, Anthony Wells. People mostly don’t decide on issues and draw conclusions about the parties. They do it in reverse. So if Labour is popular, they are seen as doing well at nearly everything, and if they’re not, then they’re rubbish at nearly everything. There are adjustments for certain issues - e.g. Labour tends to do relatively better on the economy and the NHS and relatively worse on immigration - but all the ratings shift in parallel.
16 LOL
Like it!
14 TYPO ALERT - Sorry that should be £25 ew!! It’s far too speculative for a £75 stake. Pologies.
Be a bit careful about the William Hill bet on which event will happen first. It is not full withdrawal from Iraq but merely the announcement of that withdrawal. I think.
I ‘ve heard on the local grapevine that a number of the team that organised labours hodge hill campaign were sent to Sedgefield on wednesday.
nothing about southall, make of that what you will.
10 Mike S. “Vote for Nick Soames and your children will weigh more.” ?????
……………………..
19 PtP. I’ve managed to spread with various firms £500 ew on Monlith !!
Thanks also to Henry for the tennis tips that together with my own have paid for the latest installment of Mrs Jack’s Versailles project !! …
7 & 9 Bloody hell, mayhem this morning. River Alhaarth DOES run. Apologies on The Morning Line just now for incorrect information. Sorry if anybody here was misled.
As regards stakes, I’ve had £50 ew. This is a bit less speculative than Monolith.
16 You don’t think I’m a Lib Dem do you
I we all agree that the Lib Dems by election machine is the most polished and therefore they musy be in with a good chance of another ’shock’ result (if not necessarily outright victory) in one of these at least.
But increasingly I wonder what is the point? I mean the whole tactic of throwing hundreds of volunteers into a single constituency to create a few days headlines with a shock result I suppose keeps the party breathing but in the wider scheme of things what are the Lib dems actually trying to do?
Do they want to Govern? (No, if you look at the negotiations in Wales, Scotland and over the Cabinet fiasco).
Are they speaking up on any subject that the main parties have forgotten? No, at least not since the Tories started taking the environment seriously again.
And its not just me that is wondering these things, the Lib dems sagging poll ratings reflect a view that they have truly lost their way.
Being the ‘anyone but the Tories’ party in some seats and ‘anyone but Blair’ in others has led them nowhere.
25 Marcus. But would the Tories prefer their Bromley headlines or the Lib Dems ones ??
Notwithstanding the Tory win, for all the world to many it felt like and appeared a loss. Sometimes political smoke and mirrors have their place.
Sorry to have missed all the posts last night , a night out in the pub . Labour should hold Sedgefield with a comfortable if reduced majority/share of the vote . Enfield Southgate will still I think hinge on the LibDem choice of candidate . I do feel the Conservatives have made a mistake in their choice . At first glance it seemed an inspired choice but to pick someone who was apparently not even a Conservative party member and lives in Richmond gives too much ammunition to the opposition .
16. Wittering on? High praise from the Zen Master of Dreary Left Wing Prolixity. i.e. You.
Have to agree though, that our new friend Test does sound AWFULLY like Commentator, pb.com’s previous Official Slightly Priggish Cameroonie Tory. Do you think he has reincarnated?
If he has, I’m pleased. Because Commentator retired hurt, not long after I was especially vicious during a pb.com dust-up - and I have felt obscurely guilty ever since.
27 Mark S. “Enfield Southgate” ?????
Where you up for Mark Senior’s Portillo moment ???
An all out attack by the Opposition on the UK economy should bloody Gordon’s nose, but the Opposition is so feeble I just despair.Give William Hague a chance to savage Gord at PMQ’s.
Sweeping up after Gordon Brown
By Jeff Randall
Britain’s new Prime Minister
Whole article here: - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh…6/29/do2902.xml
Excerpts here:
At precisely 10.15am yesterday, the CBI sent me a press release, welcoming the “appointment of Alistair Darling as Chancellor”. Funny that, because it was not until an hour or so later that Gordon Brown formally announced his successor.
So much for the incoming Prime Minister’s promise to break with Labour’s bedrock tactic of pre-emptive leaks and follow-up spin. The pledge lasted not even 24 hours.
He says that he has been listening. And what he has heard is “the need for change”. A burning desire among decent folk for “a new government with new priorities”.
Setting aside the probability that, when people told Brown they wanted new faces, his wasn’t on their list, let’s examine the prospects for meaningful change now that the furniture from Number 11 has been moved next door.
In the case of Brown, I suspect, doubly so. If we are to enjoy a new age of open, responsive, two-way, collegiate government, Flash Gordon, the control freak who believes he can save the world, must transmogrify into a leader with an appetite for delegating important decisions.
Ooh, look! There goes a spotless leopard. Sorry, it ain’t going to happen.
For 10 years, the Blair-Brown regime had a concentration of power that would not be tolerated in a publicly quoted company. Blair was, in effect, the chairman, head of marketing and international sales officer; Brown was the chief executive, finance director and auditor. In terms of good corporate governance, it was a disaster.
At the Treasury, Brown used his control of the nation’s coffers to influence domestic policy more ruthlessly and effectively than any chancellor in modern times. He wasn’t simply in charge of raising revenue; he told every other department how and when the money could be spent.
When he decided to play out his fantasies on health and education, frightened ministers did his bidding or were frozen out. When he raided our corporate pension pots, nobody dared complain. If the books didn’t balance, never mind. Brown made up the rules, fiddled the numbers and published the accounts.
His fiscal omnipotence allowed him to rescript an old joke: “Let us be happy and live within our means… even if we have to borrow to do it.”
None of this, however, will be part of the new Chancellor’s brief. Instead, as bankruptcies rise, homes are repossessed and Britain’s economic performance sags under the burden of rising taxes and sluggish productivity, Darling’s task will be to sweep up the piles of dung left behind by Brown, all the while tugging his forelock and thanking Gordon for the job. —- Good Stuff!!!
22 Well stakes are your own business, Jack, but it’s definitely a value bet and it may well shorten up as we near the off.
On the subject of stakes, I think I should clarify for those who do not punt regularly that most serious punters will back to a range of points per stake. Mine goes up to 10 points, although the vast majority of bets are in the 1 to 4 point range.
The amount per point varies according to the size of my bank, or how well I’m doing. At the moment I’m on £100 per point and have been for a while. Generally, I don’t like to vary the amount per point very much because it distorts results. Whatever your standard stake, it’s best to have a points system like that in mind.
The Monolith bet is obviously right down at the bottom of the scale. This is mainly because you can’t expect too many 33/1 shots to dot up. If you get one in twenty, you’re doing well. You would need deep pockets as well as a lot of patience to stake more than the odd point or so on such longshots.
River Alhaarth is a bit less speculative, but as I’ve already had one bet in the race I’ve kept stakes low again - just half a point each way.
That’s what I do. I thought in view of the earlier confusion I ought to explain.
Pologies to those not interested in racing for the digression.
29 Any view on 15. BTW The residents of Ealing Southall must feel like the resident of Georgia in the caucasus always being conflated with somewhere else!
25. It has helped propel them from a dozen seats to more than sixty. And each days publicity from a By Election win is a day they otherwise would not have had from the media
Southall will be interesting because clearly the tories will be fighting it very hard too, Sedgefield is more likely to be Lab v Lib. The tories might well have most to loose, say labour holds on but the libs do well and the tory vote is badly squeezed the big story will be how badly the tories performed which will up the pressure on DC.
Another factor might be that electors often dont like what they see as “unnecessary” elections ie when the previous mp resigns which might add to the libs case in Sedgefield.
A big positive for the Labour party in Southall is the demographic make up, Hindu and Sikh voters have been some of the most loyal(more so than muslims) to Labour’s case in recent years, there is a possibility of upset if there are issues over the candidate selection but assuming not then this does give Labour a big head start. The tories clearly have made a clever selection with the son of the independent who did reasonably well in 2001 pushing the libs into 4th place, it seems many of Avtar Lit’s votes went to the libs in 2005. I suspect this is going to make it much more difficult for the libs to run the traditional dodgy bar chart/only the libs can beat… tactics that they normally employ as to win they clearly need to persuade normally tory voters to support them on this occasion, could lib dems agreeing to act as “consultants” to the government damage their by election campaign?
Jack at 26. My point too. What is the purpose of existing purely to win headlines?
Surely the point of being a political party is to bring about change; to do that you need to win a mandate from the public to actually do things - you need to win power.
The Lib dems problem, it seems to me, is that they have forgotten this entirely and instead have become obsessed with politics for it’s own sake, as if politics is a sport.
29 Oops Still too much of last night’s Baccardi in the bloodstream .
32 . Sorry , Punter , don’t know enough about Mr Keys but I suspect his interest in politics is confined to the one issue of Iraq . I think Labour tribal loyalty in Sedgefield is very strong and will see them home easily .
35. See 15 for counter argument to Sedgefield. Re Keys So what if that’s his only beef. Dr Taylor had only one beef in Wyre Forest and that worked. I do think as a name he would be powerful force in a By election. I think it could work
25 Marcus, not often I agree with you but it does seem that the Libs really have lost their way at the moment. Perhaps if the Brown administration falters it might change but hanging on to see what might turn up doesnt seem much of a strategy to me.
There was always part of the Lib Dem vote that was a howl of protest at the large parties. If, as so many of you hope, the Lib Dems dwindle, then who do you suppose will attract that protest in future?
31 PtP. Indeed. I’ll not bear grudges if your nag fails …. just send the chaps round for a chat ….
http://www.edinburghcavalcade.com/images/200608.JPG
36 I think you underestimate Dr Taylor in thinking he is only a one issue person . On Sedgefield we can agree to disagree .
39 That’s fine, Jack…as long as they don’t raise their kilts.
28- seanT- your verbal assassination of commentator was one of my own personal highlights of pbCOM, but like Al Quaeda once you get rid of one of the buggers, another one even more hard line takes over.
This is true of “field commander commentator” who has been replaced by “squadron leader test”, identikit models.
40. He may not be now, but in 2001 he indisputably was elected on a single issue campaign. Of course he couldn’t win, but if he did why could not Reg Keys follow the same path as Dr Taylor
28 What does “obscurely guilty” mean?
Where can I place a bet on this “racing cert”
“the hot money” is on Caroline Spelman to replace Francis Maude as Tory Chairman. I have heard the same from two independent sources this week.
Michael Brown in the “Independent” on the impending Cameron reshuffle :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article2720046.ece
41 PtP. Only if two lose on the spin !!
47
48 PtP. You shouldn’t ask if the bad run continues ….
………………
The “Gruntfutock” on their own ICM poll :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/gordonbrown/story/0,,2115329,00.html
Paddy Power has opened an interesting book on the first cabinet minister to go
First cabinet minister to resign/be sacked? 1st Cab. Minister to resign/be sacked?
Jacqui Smith 2 - 1 David Miliband 6 - 1 Ed Balls 12 - 1
Ruth Kelly 3 - 1 Peter Hain 8 - 1 Jack Straw 14 - 1
Des Browne 4 - 1 Alistair Darling 10 - 1 Harriet Harman 16 - 1
Alan Johnson 6 - 1
30
In the cause of political balance, (to which I am dedicated) I think this article by the ever dependable Mr Simon Heffer should also be perused. As for Mr Randall didn’t he say, of Mr Cameron, ‘I wouldn’t trust that man with my daughter’s pocket money’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/30/do3003.xml
17- nick palmer- you are right as usual. I thought Cameron had some cheek to taunt Blair with the Tory opinion poll leads on the NHS without having one concrete policy on the NHS. It was obvious the public views were based on their wider disenchantment with the government.
51 coldstone. Yes the Hefferfrump clearly manouvering for a peerage from Cameron !!
Meanwhile …. the “Telegraph” on their own YouGov poll :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/06/30/nbrown130.xml
Brown’s first foreign affairs blunder is haunting him. He thought, a couple of weeks ago, that he could bully the Portuguese Justice minister like he does ministers in the British government. He was told in no uncertain terms to push off.
Portugal is a small country but proud and proud of its independence.
Portugal shortly holds the EU Presidency and they have not forgotten Brown’s discourtesy.
So not surprising then that they are reminding Brown he is committed to Constitution II and that it is indeed the constitution which most of the EU had ratified in the first place and have had to go through hoops to get back on track, and like many other EU governments they are hacked off by it all.
That little bit of Clunking Fist will bite him in no small way domestically in no time at all.
54 Witan. Quite clear from the polls then that the punters down the Rose and Crown are talking of nought else as they sip their Matheus Rose and maderia cocktails !!!
…………………..
Laters …. I’m off for a pint of Lisbon lager …..
The first residents surveys by the Liberal Democrats are out in Sedgefield and Newton Aycliffe this weekend. As Paden Powell said “be prepared”!!
Thanks for the Michael Brown link Jack W, interesting!
Can you imagine the reaction on Conhome if this were to happen.
Cameron will obviously re-shape his team in the near future. He must find some way of enticing Ken Clarke into his front-bench team now that the call for a Europe referendum is surely only a case of going through the motions. There will not be a referendum and, for the sake of Tory unity, Cameron must hope that the new PM will not concede one
Standby for Conhome melt down.
P.S. don’t think it could rain any harder if it tried.
44. “Obscurely guilty” means guilty without quite knowing why. To elaborate, a few weeks back Commentator was incredibly rude and punchy with me. So I just dished up prety much the same in return. But then suddenly he got all huffy and sad and left.
So as I say, I shouldn’t really feel guilty, because I just gave as good as I got. But I do. Which is why my feelings are obscure.
Anyway, it seems that everything is OK now, because Commentator has now become Test in some bizarre form of reincarnation, like a kind of eurosceptic Dr Who.
I’m SO glad the British Library is recording all this vitally important stuff.
55-Quite so Jack W- everywhere I go people are obsessed with the EU treaty, their lives will be blighted unless they are given an opportunity to vote on the finer details of Euro jurisprudence. And at night they can hardly sleep because their blood pressure is pulsating with the anxiety of cash for honours.
There is this funny little world that Tories inhabit, a kind of parallel universe where their lives are animated with the most trivial issues imaginable. Faintly touching in a mad kind of way.
Labour Party new appointments
Party Vice Chairs
Joan Ryan MP Campaigns
Rt Hon Stephen Timms MP Faith Groups
Stephen Ladyman MP South East
Ian Cawsey MP Animal Welfare
Martin Salter MP Environment
Dawn Butler MP Youth
Manifesto Groups
Rt Hon Patricia Hewitt MP Europe
Rt Hon David Blunkett MP Voluntary Sector
Rt Hon Hilary Armstrong MP Children
David Hamilton MP Scotland
Nick Ainger MP Wales
Alan Whitehead MP Local Government
Chris Bryant MP Constitutional Reform
Jon Trickett MP Housing
John Mann MP Drugs
Sion Simon MP Law and Order
Barbara Keeley MP Social Services
Eric Joyce MP International Security
Ann McKechin MP International Development
Mary Creagh MP Public Health
60 - Ah a crumb for Martin Salter!! lol
Portugal, our oldest ally, back in 1961 they wanted us to declare war on India, when India invaded Goa, funnily enough we didn’t.
57. A quite inept - or disingenuous - analysis from Michael Brown.
Clearly the EU referendum question is one of the best arrows in Cameron’s quiver. It brings the papers on his side and, if they succeed in getting a referendum, the entire issue will force Brown onto the back foot, to fight a plebiscite that Labour would probably lose. Even if they don’t succeed it will severely embarrass the governmentby making them look elitist and undemocratic.
Calling vigorously for a referendum is also the moral and correct thing to do. Moreover, it will split Labour and could help in many marginals in the south and west where the pitifully confused and europhile Lib Dems still can’t even decide whether to support a vote or not. It will remind people of how many Labour MPs promised a vote in their manifestos, further reinforcing perceptions of Labour spin, deceit and untrustworthiness.
It would also shore up his rightwing, bring back some BNP and UKIP voters, and generally make DC look more robust, leading a united party fighting a cause that is highly popular with the public.
As they say in New York, what’s not to like?
The only downside is that he might annoy Ken Clarke and Geoffrey Howe. Oo-er missus. These musty old europhile geezers are history anyway.
Focus on the Dacre-Brown love in. What a difference a knight (hood) makes.
“Though his newspapers regularly attack the chancellor on issues such as tax and pensions, they never do so with the ferocity reserved for Mr Blair and his acolytes. So when the Daily Mail serialised Tom Bower’s hostile biography of Mr Brown in 2004 the extracts chosen were - almost uniquely - mild rather than sensational. News International papers, notably the Sun, have been much harder on the chancellor.
If Brown can keep the Daily Mail and the Associated stable onside until the next election, it will be a remarkable feat. The two occasionally have breakfast. But more often Dacre will head to No 11 for early evening drinks, returning to the Mail’s west London HQ, sometimes invigorated, sometimes frustrated. He returned the favour with lunches the newspaper’s offices.”
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/media/story/0,,2115307,00.html
60. David Hamilton is a Campaign Grouper. Trickett (a leading Cruddas supporters) at Housing. Bryant (IIRC strongly for an House of Lords reform) at Constitutional Reform
64. But again Europe is the crucial issue, for Dacre if not the guy in the pub. If Brown grants a vote, I think he could actually get the Mail’s whole-hearted support (or at least half-hearted). A mighty big assistance in the GE. If Brown resists a vote, Dacre will go postal, and revert to full-on Toryism.
If Brown is determined against a plebiscite, then this might be anoher reason for him to call a GE very soon, before the Europe issue can damage him.
OT - there are some interesting stats here on national defence expenditures:
http://britainandamerica.typepad.com/britain_and_america/2007/06/america-still-a.html
58 SeanT
It’s curious, the Commentator/Test thing. I had some real good spats with Commentator, which I enjoyed and I think he did too. Like many others on the site, I found him a humane and civilised poster, and if I didn’t share his politics I certainly respected him for his point of view.
I have been finding much the same with Test. Until you mentioned it, it hadn’t occurred to me this was maybe a reincarnation but now you have, I think you could be right. People can change their names but it’s more difficult to change personality and Test certainly has the same ‘feel’ as Commentator.
I was disappointed when Commentator stopped posting, but you needn’t blame yourself. I followed that row you had with him. It was certainly lively, but no blood on the carpet and well within the bounds of PB decency.
If Test is Commentator in disguise, welcome back! I look forward to many more lively fights!
59 Tyson, if you are going to be a troll - at least don’t be so bloody obvious about it!
SeanT (again)
Btw, I keep meaning to tell you (and keep forgetting) that fanatical Europhile though I am, I agree with you - there should be a referendum.
OK?
66, SeanT. What does Dacre care for? A knighthood of course. He can attack the Labour Govt (and Blair) over Europe but not Brown. Meanwhile he can carry on employing the attack dogs of Littlejohn, Hitchins and Phillips on DC and the Tories.
Each of those attacks help undermine the Tories chances.
The bloggers are the one hope of challenging Dacre on this. He likes to stay in the background but his closeness to Gordon and attacks on DC will become an issue and people will start to shine a light in a very murky corner of the media.
Re. 33, yes, and they often take that irritation out on the party of the MP who’s put them to the inconvenience of having a by-election. Losses include Ashfield and Stechford in 77, Workington in 76, Ribble Valley in 91, and near-misses include Penrith & the Border in 83, Derbyshire West in 86, and Birmingham Hodge Hill in 2004.
So I agree with those who think Sedgefield could be the trickier of the two by-elections for Labour.
Oh, and I almost forgot, Newcastle-under-Lyme for Labour in 86, when John Golding resigned to campaign for a union position.
63 Very well put. I don’t think Michael Brown’s analysis has moved on from about 1995.
On the issue of Labour’s performance, it’s clear that the polls showing a huge Conservative lead when Brown took over were so much horses**t. That said, the underlying reasons for discontent with the government (over taxation, immigration, law and order, education etc.) will remain, and I’m not sure how Brown can deal with them. The precedent of John Major suggests that the bounce may start to fade before too long.
51 I think Randall has personal beef with Cameron dating back to Carlton. What it is who knows. But would it colour his view of whatever Cameron says/does thereafter. Better ask Jeff Randall
72.”yes, and they often take that irritation out on the party of the MP who’s put them to the inconvenience of having a by-election”
Austin Mitchell savaged Blair for having resigned his seat:
http://www.austinmitchell.org/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=271
68. Two or three things provoked my suspicion - apart from the obvious very close political parallels in their views.
Test is fiercely anti Death Penalty. This is a fairly unusual position for a Tory (in my experience most rightwingers are either mildly and pragmatically against the Death Penalty - like me - or they are actually for it). Commentator also held this unusual position.
Both have a tendency to fly off the handle, then calm down and appear just a touch rueful.
In a recent debate, I pointed out that Test and others were being a bit silly and sentimental in their adulation of Blair during his last Commons performance. My views were expressed with my normal vigour, but no more. In return, Test came storming back claiming I was a “crashing bore on Iraq” and a “shabby racist”.
Duh?
This made me think that there was some history between us, some underlying and unresolved tension, which clearly would be the case if Test is indeed Commentator.
Of course it is totally possible I am wrong, and even if i’m right - what the F does it matter? Commentator is entitled to come back as Florence Nightingale if he likes - and as you say his views are generally cogent, interesting and readable, which is a good thing in itself.
But the psychological parallels are intriguing. I’m sure the British Library will be able to work it out, in 2098, when they go over our discussions.
69- disraeli- what is a troll when it is at home?
70-peter the punter- sorry cannot agree with you, and I agree with seanT that the political classes do not trust the masses with a vote. I certainly don’t.
A referendum will be dominated by arguments like I cannot even buy a pound of bananas- I hate Europe.
60 - So that makes a nightmare trio of Ed Balls, Beverley Hughes and Hilary Amrmstrong in charge of children and schooling, is the intention to give them nightmares or something?!? Petulant swot Balls, lying sneak Hughes and school bully Armstrong - this *is* Brown’s little joke isn’t it?
seanT you can flush out the Test fox with a simple but cunning trap. Next time Snowflake5 and Test are posting at the same time, make a personal, sexist, below the belt attack on snowy. Would come quite easily to you.
Then if Test shows some chivalry and flies to the defense of his damsel in distress then we would know we have our man, Commentator.
“and I agree with seanT that the political classes do not trust the masses with a vote. I certainly don’t.”
Nor do I. But I trust the politcal classes even less than I do the masses.
Goodness me, I come back from a game to find myself famous! The thrill of it all. Yes, I’m commentator - left pb for a month but could not stay away. Typical Sean T posting of course - leaving had nothing to do with him. Iirc (and I do) he attempted a charcter slur on another poster, whereupon I pointed out that he was a boy who couldn’t grow up, who had abandoned the mother of his child and spent months abroad even though he has a small boy here. Harsh perhaps, but no harsher than his original bile attack - might have been snowflake.
Me quitting was a desperate attempt to get some work done, nothing to do with his supposed demolition which was amusingly wrong in every respect.
70. Fair enough - and good for you. Welcome on board the good ship Referendum, midshipman Peter. You’ll find us a merry crew, stout of heart, as we prepare to face the evil Spanish armada of lies that is Labour’s euro betrayal.
But the question remains - where do the Lib Dems stand officially on this question? Either they want a vote or not. They wanted a vote on the previous Constitution on the grounds of democracy. Has anything changed? A couple of red lines? Or does Ming’s desperation to suck up to Gordo count for MORE than democracy?
Tsk. You guys are drifting badly, which is why you are languishing in the polls. You need to come out and be yourselves, tell Labour to go jump, and be morally courageous as you were over Iraq. People admired and respected you for that.
A good place to start being bold and correct would be calling for the referendum Labour promised us back in 2005.
Why the silence?
The ‘Brown Bounce’,(which I never believed in) what we don’t know is when the polls were taken, was it still on an upward trajectory, or even on a downward one, (unlikely) is it a bounce or something more substantial. My memory of the early part of JM’s premiership, was that reports started to filter into the press, that JM was feeling the strain, saying he was exhausted etc., he certainly never looked well. Some politicans, Thatcher, Blair seem to thrive on stress, Major struggled. We have yet to see if Brown, finds being PM, a buzz or dampner, his body language will soon start to show one way or the other. The happiest I ever say JM look was when he lost in ‘97, he went to watch the cricket and look so relieved, nice guy, but never should have been a PM.
74 But sensible, level-headed Conservative that you are, you do acknowledge that there has been a bounce, SeanF.
Not so long ago on this site, we were bored rigid by Party apparatchniks telling us that not only would there be no bounce, but Labour’s poll ratings would nosedive as Brown’s accession grew nearer and continue after the event. It sounded like tosh at the time and looks even bigger tosh now. Not many acknowledgements forthcoming though.
Rant over, I kind of agree with you that the bounce will fade a bit as the summer wears on. Personally I look forward to November, which I think is the earliest we can expect normal politics to resume.
We can then stop debating whether the bounce is strong, weak, or of the dead cat variety and focus a bit more on punting and policy.
76 Do you think there’as any chance at all Nanny Hewitt might exact a bit of payback on Gord by doing a Gould. What’s her seat and majority
O/T, but following yesterday’s discussion about British fascism. Would the BNP benefit if Isalmist terrorists are able to mount a considerable bombing campaign in London?
86. Leicester West. 27.3% majority over the Tories.
I don’t think she is after a revenge on Brown: she was apparently offered a new department, but she refused to have more time to visit her 90 years old mother in Australia.
She has now to chair Labour’s Manifesto Group on Europe (what are her views on Europe? Would she pass the seant test?
77 - i thought everyone knew that test was commentator, it doesn’t bother me in the slightest anyway as it’s so obvious (ust how many people do you get arriving early on a thread asking when the next polls are due?
)
On the by elections I agree that Sedgefield is the one to watch, Ealing Southall will, I think, change little in comparison. This is partly because the tories are, unusually, making a bit of an effort in ES and because of the sclerotic nature of a lot of the vote there.
Seant - I also agree with a referendum on the EU treaty, I’m one of those lib dem voters that sees the EU as a centralising organisation which militates against local decision making, so am quite happy to see its powers weakened.
82. We have our man! I’d just like it noted that I am a psychological genius of Freudian proportions. And, er, so is Tyson. And scallywag, Who also noted the psychological similarities between the two posters.
And it was Scallywag who first noted that you were as priggish as Commentator, not me.
I’m also curious to know why you have come back under a different name. Hope it’s nothing to do with your personal issues that…
Ah no. I’m only joking. I will rise above the fray and proffer the hand of peace. Shall we draw a line under these debates, old chap?
85 IIRC I did express doubts about polls showing a huge putative Conservative lead when Brown took over. It seemed clear to me back then that Brown’s underlying strength on ratings about trust and competence would be beneficial to Labour; I think I also wrote an article on PBC, in which I expressed the view that Tony Blair was dragging Labour’s ratings down, and the sooner he went the better (from Labour’s point of view). Brown doesn’t generate in me (and I suspect other Conservatives) anything like the feelings of antipathy that Blair did.
But it still remains the case that, regardless of Blair, levels of dissatisfaction with the government are high, and Brown will have to be a genius, and have a huge amount of luck, to turn that around.
78 Tyson. A “troll” is netspeak for someone who makes deliberately provocative comments to wind people up. They then gain amusement at the reaction.
Put aside for a moment that the background to this discussion is the EU, and this is an emotive one. Put aside, also, that it may have been unwise to promise to offer a referendum, for all the good reasons that you mention. let’s talk principles and morality here - qualities seemingly in short supply in all parties, unfortunately.
What you are saying in effect is this:
A political party can make a major promise in its election manifesto then just blithely ignore it in contempt of the voters.
And you think that this is morally right, because you think that they should not have made the promise in the first place. You think that anyone who believes that these promises should be kept have “lives are animated with the most trivial issues imaginable”. Keeping a promise is “trivial”, is it? So, your missus could break her marriage vows to be faithful to you, but that would be OK.
87 No, but we might start to see some tidier parking in Central London.
87 - Quite probably they would benefit, I really think that the main three parties are giving the wrong message in trying to provide a ‘big tent’ which smothers each other. Labour should have taken the cue from Cruddas and reintroduced elements of the old labour philosophy (rather than moving even further right), Cameron should be more robust on the EU and tax, lib dems should go to town on civil liberties issues and carve out a niche on personal liberty. At the moment too many see them as ‘all the same’ and those people are ripe for voting BNP (and it would seem are doing so in increasing numbers).
That ‘big tent’ is going to collapse under its own weight leaving those on the outside best placed to take over if we’re not careful.
87
To refer to the BNP as a Fascist party is not correct. Fascism, (not to be confused with National Socialism) is a stricly Latin, Roman Catholic phenomena. Fascism has never managed to establish itself outside of Roman Catholic cultures. Because a political party is racist, authoritarian, militaristc etc does not make it Fascist. The BNP has been handed a gift, Islamic terrorism, it will exploit that to the full, in fact I could see Griffin moving the BNP away from racism, to a culturism (if there is such a word)in which non-Whites could be accepted into the BNP provided they accept British culture, well he could offer it anway. The BNP is probably a more potent electoral threat now than the radical right has been for 60 years. We should remember however that Mosley have very little electoral success. Can Griffin improve the radical right’s previous poor electoral record, we wait with some interest.
87. Yes.
Maybe the LibDems will pull off a spectacular “double” in July, like they achieved on 26th July 1973….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_by-election_records#Most_by-election_losses_in_one_day
78 Tyson the vast majority of voters want a referendum on the Constitution II, so who is it trapped in a small world of their own: the Brownies, of course.
In any case this is not about Europe but about democracy.
Labour have conceded that referendums are right for key constitutional issues with their one-sided efforts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland where England had no say. Why? Well because they feared losing if there were a referendum on a proper federal system, and devolution was mainly motivated by a desire to keep their power bases in Wales and Scotland sweet after sowing the whirlwind as a way of opposing the Tory government).
So the democratic instinct of Labour is to consult the people only when the people are decent enough to be certain to agree with the Labour party.
Funny democracy that.
The illogical argument deployed is that there was no referendum on any other EU treaty. This ignores the 1975 referendum on joining the EU (which so many Labour MPs opposed at the time and a party conference opposed in April that year) and goes totally counter to Brown’s own very recently declared desire to consult people before policy is enacted.
He will be seen to be a spinner if he fails on this first test.
88 Very true but how important was it. Don’t forget Brown’s people were the ones relentlessly rubbishing her recently. Throw in the personal bit you mention and it is conceivable albeit unlikely
94 Nothing irritates me more than the sort of pitying derision that some commentators heap on politicians who do have principles, on the ground that gaining office is the only thing that counts.
Lib Dem changes in July by-elections since 1945
Leicester North East (July 12th 1962): 34.3% (from no candidate in 1959)
Lewisham, Deptford (July 4th 1963): 22.5% (from no candidate in 1959)
West Bromwich (July 4th 1963): 17.6% (from no candidate in 1959)
Hove (July 22nd 1965): 16.9% (from no candidate in 1964)
Carmarthen (July 14th 1966): 20.8% (-5.3% on 1966)
Caerphilly (July 18th 1968): 3.6% (from no candidate in 1966)
Isle of Ely (July 26th 1973): 38.3% (from no candidate in 1970)
Ripon (July 26th 1973): 43.5% (+30.4% on 1970)
Thurrock (July 15th 1976): 12.2% (-7.8% on October 1974)
Saffron Walden (July 7th 1977): 25.2% (-5.1% on October 1974)
Manchester, Moss Side (July 13th 1978): 9.2% (-8.4% on October 1974)
Penistone (July 13th 1978): 21.6% (-0.2% on October 1974)
Average change: +9.66%
97 It would probably be in the Conservative Party’s interest if they did.
91 Yes I know, SeanF. You and a number of other Conservatives were perfectly reasonable and balanced in your judgements. You were all however regularly drowned out by the shrill cries by the ‘Party apparatchniks’.
You can tell they p*ss me off, can’t you. But then no more so than the ones from the other side. They’ve just had less to crow about for a while.
87. PS, remember it was Griffin who correctly predicted, before 7/7, that we would see homegrown Islamic suicide bombers in the UK. He was the only politician to predict this.
The reaction of the Establishment to his prescience and plain-speaking was to try and fit him up for racial incitement in an absurd Stalinist showtrial. Which, unsurprisingly, backfired when a jury refused to convict him.
That said, the one good thing to have come out of these latest bombs is that al-Qaeda, if it is they, or their associates, are a bit crap at bombing, and have some inept and or cowardly recruits. It’s not that hard to explode petrol in a car - yet they failed. Derrr.
They sure ain’t the IRA, on a purely technical level.
74 sean fear- to your credit you were one of the more sensible Tory posters here realizing that the previous Brown/ Cameron head to head polls were meaningless.
I think that that the previous low polls for Labour were as much dependent on the interregnum period, and the perceived drift in leadership in the party as they were with policy issues. Iraq, and Blair were also vote losers.
Losing Blair, stable leadership, and damage limitation over Iraq may well put Labour back in a dominant position that is hard for the Tories to shift. As they say it is governments that lose elections, and at present it doesn’t appear that Brown is in a hurry to lose his.
88 Andrea. Hewitt is pro-Europe but wants reform. For example, Hewitt gave a speech to the Labour conference in 2002 where she said:
QUOTE-
Conference, more than half our trade is with Europe. We are Europeans. Pro-Europe - and pro-reform in Europe.
But on this matter of trade, conference, Europe is two-faced: demanding market opening from the poor, but practising protectionism to defend their own special interests.
We cannot and we will not accept a system of subsidies that gives $2-a-day to every cow in Europe … but leaves one thousand, two hundred million men, women and children living on half that amount.
END-QUOTE
I can’t believe it - I find myself in full agreement with Nanny Hewitt!
104 In the early seventies, the IRA was often extremely inept in its bombing operations. Several dozen of them blew themselves up in the process (always entertaining, IMHO, so long as no innocents were caught up in it). I think as late as 1992, one IRA operative who was trying to bomb the TA in St. Alban’s blew himself up instead. There were bits of him all over the city centre.
82- welcome back commentator- you have been missed ever since your hasty departure the night when poor Benedict was getting excited about his blog. But there again with Test you have never really been away.
And the snowflake, seanT, commentator spat remains the best one I have followed on pbCOM.
Sean, I just chose a new name - as obvious to me as that Scally is Yellow Peril and various others. Happy to have a truce, but bottom line is I do think you have racist views and I tend to counterattack when you have a go at others, but I don’t go first. You were the other day a bit vicious to Stonch for his perceived failures - turned out he works in the city, which made me smile. But on PB.com all these things blow over in a day’s posts - there are always new polls or defectors or by-elections, and let’s face it, we are all anoraks and political junkies!
Test
Fwiw, I can confirm that SeanT was concerned that he may have driven you off the site. I remember telling him that I did not think it to be the case and am glad you have now confirmed it.
So, now I know you are the poster-formerly-known-as-commentator, welcome back (again) and I look forward to many more interesting disputes.
Wwhere did we get to on ‘dead cats’?
105. A massive and successful bombing campaign by Islamists in the UK - and let’s hope to God it don’t happen - would have unpredictable effects.
On the one hand it might make people support the government out of natural patriotic loyalty. With Labour seen as the more authoritarian and rightwing party on things like ID cards etc that might also attract voters.
On other hand a bombing campaign blamed on Iraq could damage Labour enormously, and see a Spanish type situation where the electorate turns from the war-mongering government in disgust/cowardice (strike out as you see fit).
108. The other day I was wondering if Mike would publish, in some form, a best of pb.com compilation album. We could call it Benedict Has A Blog?, and it would feature all our favourite posts, insults, arguments and pointlessly detailed latenight debates about the WLQ.
We could even sell it. To each other.
104 SeanT
Yokel made a similar point last night, prompting the thought that they were not intended to go off.
I don’t generally do conspiracy theories, but do you think they may have been a heavy hint to our guys who have been stirring up trouble in Iran?
A useful tip to punters on by-elections. Labour have ‘previous’ in recent by-elections. They promote the third-placed party as the ‘big threat’ e.g. in Dunfermline they said the SNP were the challengers.
92- Disraeli- yes sometimes troll exactly describes me. I do get satisfaction though just from writing silly things about Tories.
But to your post- politics is a dirty business, as Blair naively discovered. I have just watched a clip on uTube showing Thatcher lying blatantly to Parliament about when we knew Kuwait had been invaded.
Witan- 98- this democracy thing is all a bit overrated. Wilson only called a referendum in 75 to save his bacon. Brown at the minute is not in this position.
109. OK dude. Peace. I do, still, suspect your strangely and continuously angry reactions to my posts betray a certain hurt pride. And I think I can claim a fair insight into your character - having deduced that you were masquerading as someone else…!
But enough of my brilliance. Back to the excitement of the passerelle clause in the EU Reform Treaty Annexe 2. An outrage.
113. In Dunfermline they did it on the last few days, but it was too late to change things. In Livingston they did a better move: during the whole campaign they spent a day attacking SNP and then the next one attacking LDs. So it was a better way to confuse things on who they think they main challengers was.
106. Thanks Disraeli
Coldstone: 84. I thought Gordon Brown looked tired and drained on the News last night after only two days in the job.
95 What about Japanese Fascism?
111 seanT
the Spanish deserted Aznar (although not running again) and his people’s party because they foolishly tried to make political capital from the bombings and blame Eta when it was obvious they were not responsible. It was nothing to do with the association with Iraq.
Govt’s always can benefit from terrorism to boost domestic popularity, provided that is they deal with it competently.
The effects of an Islamic bombing would be difficult to determine. The IRA campaign did not produce anti-Irish riots as happened in WW1 to German residents,(German Shephard dogs being called Alsatians etc) no body bombed Irish Pubs, in fact Irish pubs started to open all over London: we British are strange aren’t we!
118. No, you are totally wrong, it was both. Yes Aznar and Co were stupid as F to blame ETA. I remember at the time of the Atocha bombs thinking immediately - this is al Qaeda, and being utterly dumbfounded when the Spanish government tried persistently to blame it on ETA.
But one of the reasons aznar was keen to blame ETA was that if al-Qaeda got fingered for it, he knew he’d be in trouble because it would be seen as blowback for Spanish involvement in Iraq.
And so it was. Don’t you remember the Spanish reaction to the bombs? The angry parades? The leftwing press reaction? They laid some of the blame for the bombs squarely on Aznar’s deeply unpopular Iraq adventure with Bush.
And that’s one of the main reasons Aznar lost. Notice Zapatero pulled the troops out of Iraq as soon as he could, after winning.
Update on River Alhaarth in the Northumberland Plate.
The horse definitely runs. Its ‘withdrawal’ earlier today was a clerical error, nothing more. The horse is fine.
The earlier incorrect announcement on The Morning Line caused the price to drift alarmingly and it has not fully recovered. If you haven’t already backed it, you can now get 11/1 with B365 (guaranteed SP if bigger) or 18/1 the win and 3/1 the place with Betfair.
I’ve topped up my bet with Betfair. It has as much chance now as it ever did.
114. So if lying to get elected is OK, and “this democracy thing is all a bit overrated” what system of Government do you think we should have?
I think that it is a fair question, so that we can read you posts in context. So is it absolute monarchy, dictatorship, autocracy, Tyson’s-Patent-System-Mark1, . . .what?
120-seanT- the reaction was based on the fact that the govt had deliberately lied to them for political purposes. Sure this was also mixed with a degree of anti war hostility.
I think if the spanish government had played the situation/ aftermath with a straight bat they would have won the election easily.
122-Disraeli- but all politicians lie. Cameron one day says he will delegate decision making to the professionals not govt, the next he is calling for draconian top down policies to have grammar sets in every school, probably against the views of the majority of professionals. The NHS as well- most local rationalsisation programmes are dicated by professionals, not govt, but he sends out Tories to support stop closure bandwagons.
I personally think we have it about right- to vote once every 4 years or so. Not really that democratic.
I see that Maude has announced that the Conservative 2008 SPring Conference will be in Tyneside! Well he can count me out then. I am fed up with trecking up to obscure northern places for conference. Its about time we had some spring conferences down south again! Whats wrong with Bristol or Reading?
This tokenistic crap is pathetic!
I think it is way too early to draw any conclusions from the polls and this failed terror attack.
Firstly the polls are encouraging for Labour but i think they are well out of line. I don’t think the LD’s will get only 12% of the vote in a GE. Not a chance - much the pity!!! I would say LD’s base line support is probably around 17 - 18%. The Tories seem stuck just North of the Mid 30’s and Labour have recently bounced to the high 30’s but that is it. I think Labour went into the 2005 election at between 38 and 40 % IIRC - so draw you own conclusions from that!!!
I don’t think if the terror attack had succecceded, which thankfully it did not (I have folks who live and work within a few hundred meters)that the ID cards would have become more likely. This is because it makes sense to target resources on the problem not waste money on a ineffective “safety blanket”. Non tergeted money is always a waste in public sector economics, whilst not wanting to be political on such an issue. You only have to look at public sector waste post 1945 on unspecified spending to figure that out!
125. Conservative 2008 Spring Conference - they always seem to be in funny places anyway. I do agree it is a bit tokenistic - I never go to conferences anyway waste of time plus money.
In terms of the By - elections, I would think it is likely that the LD’s are going to target one over the other. I should imagine that sedgefield will see a big swing anyway as Blair will have had a big personal vote like John Major in huntingdon. I think the tory majority went down by about 8,000ish (There was a big drop in turnout though in 2001). I was going to agree with Nick Palmer that the London seat was probably most likely to be the LD’s best bet. Having said that they are by-elections and to be honest i think the tories should cock - up the nomination papers and give the LD’s a free run as it is in the interests of the tories to