The bombs: Was Gord upstaged by Alex?
July 1st, 2007
Whose statement came over better?
The strangest part of the latest terror crisis is that there’s no Tony Blair. We’ve got so used to the ex-PM’s approach that to watch a crisis evolve without Blair’s trembling voice is something that we are simply not used to.
Just contrast the short piece to camera that Gordon did after his Downing Street meetings with Blair’s performances on similar occasions. As well as the presentational differences between the two men there was no need for Gordon to justify himself over Iraq. His objective was simply to reassure. My only criticism was his over-use of the “British people” phrase which he mentioned three times. It sounded a touch awkward and contrived and appeared as though he was trying to peddle a point.
Then we had Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond, who only hours earlier had been with the Queen at the opening of the Scottish Parliament. He’s an altogether different form of communicator and came over reassuringly giving little snippets about what Scottish people could expect.
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Scotland’s First Minister caught the mood better and interestingly this morning it is Salmond’s statement and not Brown’s that’s the main lead on the BBC Politics page (see above).
The person I would have like to have seen is Jacqui Smith - the new Home Secretary - and who was, arguably, Brown’s most imaginative cabinet appointment.
Whatever this has kept Cameron off our screens for a bit longer and that can only help Gord’s poll ratings.
Mike Smithson
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G’day.
I thought Brown did OK - ish. He did nervously repeat “British people” but it was his first serious task, to be fair. He also looked slightly crumpled (even in his direst straits Blair was always immaculate) - and this matters, a little bit - a crumpled and dishevelled PM gives the imprsssion of a panicky or uncomfortable PM. Not good. He should employ a tie straightener.
He also used the word vigilant too many times - or maybe it’s just cause I’ve heard the word “vigilant” 6000 times from everyone in the last two days it’s starting to grate.
Try “watchful”, guys. Please.
But on the whole GB did a fair-to-middling job. He might improve.
No, what is depressing about the government’s reaction - and I saw it in Nick Palmer’s response last night - is the kneejerk reflex of reaching for more powers, looking for new laws, abandoning more civil liberties.
This is pitiful, and a surrender to the terrorist agenda. The British police already have powers coming out of their ears. We are the most CCTV’d nation on earth. We have 28 day detention which is the longest in the free world.
What we need to do is use the powers we already have - properly. I’ve read a report today which thinks one of the Haymarket bombers might have been one of the Islamist suspects who has absconded while on house arrest.
That says it all.
Furthermore, we need to tackle the underlying cultural, social and psychological problems causing such alienation in British Muslims - arguably more alienation than we see in other European countries with large Muslim poplations. I think the words “multiculturalism” and “Iraq” are fairly prominent in any explanation.
And no, we don’t need ID cards. If these guys are British citizens what difference would ID cards make? If they were tourists or asylum seekers what difference would ID cards make?
Tut.
oh god - i’m so drunk - but i’m so glad we don’t have T Blairs grinnning/pausing face on the tv. i’m know i’m one of the few - i’ve hated his grinning face since the mid 90s but the general population have voted so counclusively ever since. i’ve so glad i don’t have t blairs grinning/pausing mug on my tv. i know i’m one of the few.
The general approach of Brown and Salmond seems to be to keep things calm, stiff upper lip, as opposed to the tanks, ID cards and scrapping civil liberties approach of the previous regime. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up.
(I nearly wrote “the British and Scottish governments”.)
Somebody posted last night that Ming was to get a leadership challenge.
LibDem patience finally exhausted with the LDs joining the govt as advisers when he said they would not?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/01/nelec301.xml
Sunday Telegraph also reporting an autumn election. Yeah right.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/01/nelec101.xml
Observer says maybe Spring 2008. Again, I don’t buy it at all. Makes sense he would keep his options open, but he has no guts.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/gordonbrown/story/0,,2115984,00.html
1: SeanT, what Nick Palmer post are you referring to?
Totally agree that the government should be using the law enforcement options they’ve got rather than using this as an excuse to take away more civil liberties or push through unrelated things like ID cards - but just looking at internet sources (I’m in Japan and don’t get British telly so maybe I’m missing something) it looks to me like - refreshingly - that’s what they’re doing.
The Telegraph article suggests Ming was openly confronted by the PLDP last week
“Sir Menzies has been struggling to maintain his authority for months amid rising unhappiness over his poor public performances and lack of impact in the opinion polls. Tensions in the party boiled over at a private meeting of the party at Westminster last week at which one senior Lib Dem peer openly called him a “liar” for failing to inform the party of his talks with Mr Brown.
“There is now outright rebellion,” one senior Lib Dem said. “We are absolutely livid.”
Sir Menzies faced an explosion of criticism from within his party for holding secret talks with Mr Brown, a long-standing friend and -neighbour in Scotland, about possible cabinet roles for a number of senior colleagues, including the former party leader Lord Ashdown.
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In an attempt to scotch rumours of a deal he then ordered party figures to refuse any offers to join Mr Brown’s government, despite revelations that a second meeting between him and the new Prime Minister had earlier been planned.
Neither the instructions to MPs nor the denials seem to have been heeded and the effect, say party insiders, is a shambles which has significantly weakened what remaining command Sir Menzies still has.
On Friday, two Lib Dem peers, Lord Lester of Herne Hill and Baroness Neuberger were appointed advisers in the new administration, and it is understood that Mr Brown remains in talks with Baroness Williams of Crosby with a view to making her an adviser on nuclear proliferation.
Matters have been made worse by a major poll dip, including a YouGov survey putting the Liberal Democrats at just 12 per cent.”
I find it strange that Tory posters, now seem reluctant to admit the possibility of an early election. I think the evidence for one is growing every day. As I said before, Labour politicians remember the consequences of Callaghan’s decision to delay. An NOP poll commissioned by the Daily Mail in October 1978 actually gave Labour an 8% lead, the then editor of the Mail refused to publish it, (don’t think they’d be shy today) the Mirror found out about it, bought the poll and did publish it. Brown will come under increasing pressure over the summer recess, to go to the country to seek his own mandate, I think he will go!
Interesting suggestion in the Guardian article linked at 6 that:
“…the speculation about an early poll may be a deliberate attempt to panic the Tories into speeding up their policy formulation process.”
Assuming that Cameron wants to avoid a revolt in his party over policy, it would presumably be in his interests to make actual policy announcements reasonably close to the election, when right-wing Tories will be focussed enough on the election not make too much trouble.
If Cameron announces policy soon, it would make sense for Brown to go for a later date to give the Tories a chance to fight each other. Conversely, if Cameron holds off, it might be worth his while calling a sudden election in the hope of catching him with his policy pants down.
Either way, Labour have every reason to spread disinformation about their real intentions.
This is also worth a look, expect more of this sort of thing over the next few weeks.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2115712,00.html
“Assuming that Cameron wants to avoid a revolt in his party over policy, it would presumably be in his interests to make actual policy announcements reasonably close to the election, when right-wing Tories will be focussed enough on the election not make too much trouble.”
That would be to ignore all available evidence IMO.
Coldstone, there is almost nothing more I want than an early election, apart from winning the lottery, but I think the two are about as likely as each other
1 Morning SeanT and I hope the sun is shining on you in Bangkok, or wherever. It has made a brief reappearance here today but we are promised business as usual from tomorrow.
Sorry about the jibe at the Creatures last nite. You are quite right. They have as much right to rant as I have, especially when panicked. It was getting late and I was almost as fed up with knee-jerk reactions as I was with terrorists.
On reflection, people took it all pretty much in their stride, as they tend to do here, and there are no calls for anybody with an Eastern accent to be rounded up and detained in Wembley Stadium for the duration. Not yet anyway.
I’m off to the cricket, which seems quite a sensible thing to do in the circumstances. Hope it’s all nice and quiet when I return.
Apart from the odd defection, of course.
Sawatdee.
11 Yes you’ll see those sorts of stories. As a Cameroon I want him to stick to his guns, it never hurts to move a party forward.
Re 4 and 11. Hardly surprising that right wing papers seek to talk up risk to Ming and left wing papers talk up risks to DC.
14. Greetings to you too Peter. I was quite strident last night - and quite drunk after a splendid night on the Bangkok razzle with the great great nephew of a Tory Prime Minister (yes! how weird is that? I’ll leave you to guess which one).
So this morning I woke up and thought, oo-er, I’d better read through my posts to see if I’d say anything daft - but as it happens, I didn’t say anything daft. I was just forceful and vigorous as ever. I don’t resile.
Anyway, I won’t rehearse my argument, FWIW I’ll just refer people to the Sunday Telegraph leader today, which basically expresses my continued opinion, albeit in more temperate and boring language:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/01/dl0102.xml
Enjoy the cricket!
7. Last night Nick Palmer suggested we should quite possibly have “extra security measures” in response to these new attacks. He’s entitled to his opinion, and I don’t want to second guess what he means by that, but given his enthusiasm for ninety-day detention and indeed ID cards, I imagine he doesn’t see much problem with more restrictions on our civil liberties.
But who knows I could be wrong as to what he means.
Certainly there is talk in the papers today of revisiting the wretched 90 day legislation…
Sawadee.
There are currently no bids at all for LibDem seats on Spreadfair. Personally I don’t feel a sense of panic but clearly others do.
Providing it is moving ‘forward’ test.
Looks to be stuck in ‘neutral’ at best right now, possibly even begining to slip ‘backwards’ ?
Tory Boy “Have you rushed out to get a large supply of “I told you so” T-shirts printed yet?
went a bit worng with the quotes there
Grdon Brown’s assumption of office has the effect of a large boulder thrown into a small pond and destablises al the opposition parties. Cameron’s appearance destabilised the Lib Dems quickly and had a part in Blair’s earlier than planned departure. Need to see what the situation is when the waters settle again.
IMHO Cameron has the firmer footing and, while it make take time to adjust, could get back to a small lead by Autumn, if the idiots in Cornerstone and their allies remember that their party could face an election early.
Ming I’m not to certain off. The Mail today reports a very worthy speech on Rural Poverty - sorry but London & Glasgow hit by terrorists, people across the country recovering from flooded homes and Ming highlights road tax breaks for country dwellers, increased council tax on second homes, boosted funding for pupils at rural schools and more police and post offices. Couldn’t that have waited a few weeks? Then his peers eagerness to serve a Labour Government shows a blatant disregard for party loyalty. If as seems likely the LDs are beaten into third place in Southall think it will be an early departure there.
22 We shall see if ” as seems likely LibDems are beaten into 3rd place in Southall ” comes true , certsinly the Conservatives are boosting the chances of their candidate a member for of their party for less than 1 week . If they end up with a poor result after all this hype then perhaps the pressure will be back on Cameron with a vengeance .
If I were a Tory candidate who had worked for the party for years and fancied fighting that by- election I would be absolutely furious at the candidate choice.
24 It appears that some of them who live in the constituency and are on the candidates list are none too happy . I wonder if Mr Lit’s radio station will break the law this time as they did in 2001 when his father stood for parliament .
It’s surely dangerous to base the likelihood of an Autumn election on a couple of polls released in the immediate aftermath of excellent coverage for Brown and Labour across the board. That will have had a significant effect on opinion and skewed the figures to Labour’s benefit. I expect that Gordon and his staff are well aware of that and the implication that an Autumn election is an even bigger gamble than normal as he and they won’t know the underlying position - it won’t be teased out in July or August as we’re then out of the ‘political season’ when people have politics even less on their minds than normal.
The comparison with Callaghan has been made again. This is a bit of a false analogy. Callaghan was already four and a half years into the term; Brown is barely more than two years into this one at the moment. The assumption Labour must base the calling of an early election on is that things will get worse for them. This is certainly a question that will be put, amongst accusations of ‘cutting and running’ in advance of bad economic news, for example. I do not believe that Gordon believes things will get worse. He is a very confident man in general and will expect to have the answers to deliver a decent fourth victory in due course.
That’s why I expect a 2009 or 2010 poll. Policies need time to work through and there is no need for him to go earlier.
The rumblings in the opposition parties are if anything a reason to hold off as well. From his point of view, if Ming is in trouble, let him stay there for as long as possible. It will be extremely difficult for the Lib Dems to force out their leader a second time in a parliament, though a retirement on health grounds could happen. Still, as long as an early election remains possible, it will be difficult for them to move. Therefore, keep the options open as an outside bet but don’t take them.
For Cameron, the problem with Cornerstone is less about policy than polls. The reason some of that tradition are more confident now is not the lack of policy so far, it is the dip in the polls. As long as Cameron is comfortably ahead, they have little ground to work on. For Brown, the longer he can sustain his lead or at least prevent Cameron from getting back to the 6-8% lead seen earlier this year, the more pressure he can put on Cameron. The prospect of an early election will release all that pressure.
16
I don’t know which papers you read, but the ‘right wing’ press are hardly supportive of DC!
Most of the right wing press seem to be, (at the moment) fairly supportive of GB, in fact if you read them this morning, GB seems to be getting a more than fair press.
Gordon’s speeches are like his actions. He doesn’t quite get it right. Outside Downing St, he repeated 8 times - Change, Change, Change. After terror attacks, he does it again - British people, British people, British people. He’s not called ‘Clunking’ for nothing.
It might work to his advantage, as speech difficulty did for Iain Duncan Smith. Cameron should not show Brown up too much. Brown might get the sympathy vote.
28 I am not sure I agree with you that GB’s speeches aren’t quite getting it right . They are aimed at the vast majority of voters who do not analyse or think on what he has said but would have taken on board the Change Change Change emphasis for example in the Downing St speech .
28
A few weeks ago this site was bursting with posters, stating with out any doubt at all, that GB becoming PM, was of great advantage to the Tory Party. That as anyone can see, (but the most blinkered) was not true. All the talk this morning is not if GB is going to survive, but if DC can survive! There has been a perceptible shift in attitude, its now, ‘Buy David Davis sell David Cameron’. The spotlight has shifted, its the Tory Party and its leadership that is now being examined, prepare for ructions.
30. It’s perhaps a bit early still to give a definitive answer on that one.
Just a quick comment referring back to the election date, the price on the Betfair market on a 2007 election has come in from a high of 19/1 and a midweek price of about 12/1 (from memory) to about 15/2 at the moment. That said, most of it seems to be a single bet with small amounts since. Even so, worth noting perhaps.
BTW …. The Prime Minister on the Beeb with Andy Marr shortly.
Presumably the Labour and Liberal Democrats at Southall will make much of the fiercely critical words of the defecting Conservative MP last week, one other thought, the Conservative candidate selection for Southall could be criticised for showing once again that DC puts PR first and substance second.
Anyway we will see how it all develops, Lib Dem by election history suggests that being in second place is major boost to them in a campaign.
On paper Labour should hold, but so many times in by elections paper goes up in flames.
Should get good odds on the Lib Dems winning both by elections, must be worth an outside gamble.
31
Agree it is early, and wouldn’t want to commit myself either way, but this Telegraph piece is worth reading.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/01/do0102.xml
Meanwhile …. The “Brownite”
Mail on Sunday helpfully showers the “cad” James Gray with the proverbial !
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=465364&in_page_id=1770&in_a_source=
30. But the “can Cameron survive” posters are as hysterical as the “will Brown implode” posters a few months back.
Basically everyone’s getting over-excited about nothing. Cameron has definitely nudged up the Tory vote - no surprise, he’s taken them nearer the centre. Everyone agrees it’s not enough for a win or even a hung parliament. Yet.
Brown has now started a predicted honeymoon - and he’s winning back votes - but more from the Lib Dems than the Tories. Again this was predictable - so many Labourites fled Blair’s Iraq adventurism, they went to the Lib Dems. Now they are tentatively returning.
So there we are. Brown has slightly edged ahead after a period when the Tories had slightly edged ahead. No biggie. Not exactly the October Revolution.
It’s all still to play for. So much could go wrong for both sides - Europe, cash for honours, Iraq, terrorism, strikes, immigration rows, NHS, education bust-ups, events dear boy events, etc.
The only party who should REALLY be worrying is the Lib Dems. They are in danger of disappearing. But again this was predictable - 2005 was their highpoint, because of their moral stance on Iraq and the ongoing feebleness of the Tories.
As these factors recede and the other parties crowd the centre, the point of the Lib Dems becomes evermore difficult to perceive. That’s why their hobnobbing with Brown is especially self-destructive. People are already wondering why bother voting Lib Dem. If they are seen as Labour Lite then its curtains, people will just vote Labour (or shun them for the Tories).
Call for that EU Referendum, Ming. Have some policies. Do something. Or resign.
Meanwhile II …. Even the MoS leader comment gives the new PM two cheers !!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/newscomment.html?in_article_id=465074&in_page_id=1787
seanT - perhaps you are a bit remote from things in the far East, but the LD problem is never a shortage of policies. It’s just making people aware of them (and killing off the less well-considered ones before they see they light of day).
I wouldn’t expect the LDs to make a decision on the referendum until we know precisely what is in the treaty. If it is very similar to the constitution then I would expect that referendum (or there won’t be any bids for LD seats again!).
It will be the usual vacuaous rubbish. Does is he think that the Iraq war has contributed to the terrorist threat??
Meanwhile III …. the fragrant Dominic Lawson in the “IoS” lambasts the new PM for his reticent media policy :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/dominic_lawson/article2720053.ece
apols for spelling
30 Coldstone I still think Gordon Brown will be a less effective opponent the Blair for Cameron. He’s had a great start politically, and the bombing attempts will help the government as people look to them for leadership.
There are however hopeful signs - the Cabinet isn’t really new more of a re-shuffled pack, much of his programme seems based in pre-1997 territory (what I would have done if you hadn’t elected Tony) or re-packaged and relaunched earlier stuff. Most importantly the spin culture is alive and well - read the Patrick Hennesy column in the Sunday Telegraph. Bits of constitutional reform agenda might worry and wrongfoot the Tories but are equally dangerous for Brown with his own party and if they are about England, will be open to challenge on basis of whats this Scotsman doing playing with the English Constitution.
As Mike has identified Gordon Brown (or his acolytes) can’t help but use these events to further his re-election campaign. The repetition of British people” shows that. In ST article we get:
“Mr Brown convened a meeting of the Government’s Cobra … committee ..but, crucially, the vast majority of those who attended were officials and not ministers. Those close to Mr Brown have long felt that, under Mr Blair, far too many ministers packed into Cobra meetings, afterwards using their attendance to enhance their own political profile. “There was a tendency to grandstand,” a supporter of Mr Brown said sardonically, this weekend.”
Who could they be thinking of? Perhaps the follwing will throw light on that:
“After the meeting, Ms Smith briefed the full Cabinet. In contrast to the mere rubber-stamping forum that such gatherings became under Mr Blair”
“there was a perceptible contrast to the Blair era, when some of those close to Mr Brown felt that previous home secretaries had been too keen to “play up” the terrorist threat for political ends”
Not saying Mr Hennesy hasn’t a mind of his own but there are whole bits of the column which read like notes from a discussion with Brown’s spin machine.
Gordon has a very professional operation but it’s not meant to exist in this new changed world and if Cameron (or Mr Coulson) can expose the tricks and spin Gordon will be damaged.
Interesting that the article about getting rid of Ming if byelections won’t be a good performance put the bad performance level at LDs finishing third. I find it quite unlikely that “kings of byelections” LDs will finish third considering their starting point.
GB on Sunday AM - Scottish leftie interviewed by Scottish leftie - ooh will there be anything interesting said ? Don’t hold yer breaths..
38. Most of the Lib Dem policies are irrelevant to the political scene as most voters have no idea what they are. The only three in recent times that the public really caught on to are: PR, a penny on income tax for education and opposition to the Iraq War.
The Iraq War will be several years in the past by the next election, possibly with no remaining British military involvement in the country by then. The penny on income tax has been dropped (though how many voters realise that I don’t know), and PR’s not the kind of issue to turn most voters on. So Sean’s point is right: unless the Lib Dems can find a niche for themselves, a new USP if you like, then they will have to rely on the old ‘neither of the above’ - an increasingly crowded field - or wage a series of almost independent local campaigns.
20 Far more in sorrow than in anger Jon !
30 Coldstone, what are you like ?
You are right though(IMHO) to identify a slight shift in attitudes of late, the touchstone for which was the Grammar School fiasco.
Not only did it confirm their worst fears to many in the activist base who had been hoping against hope that their growing concerns about DC were misplaced, but it flagged up the simmering internal discontent that had erstwhile been confined to places such as this to the general public. Neither grouping liked it one little bit.
DC’s problem now is that he can’t tack right now even if he wants to. Not only will the resentment linger internally that ‘he doesn’t really mean it and is only doing so out of expediency’, he will also be cricified by the media.
So what’s credibly left for him to do ?
He can only plough on with the Liberal Conservative (his words not mine) agenda that he’s been advocating and hope for the best whilst attempting to maximise populist feeling on a referendum and English Parliament without appearing unduly opportunistic.
Even here, we are not masters of our own destiny as Brown could decide any time to cook our goose on either at any time.
The opinion polls are certainly increasingly critical.
If we fall back to May ‘05 levels, watch out !
“Everyone agrees it’s not enough for a win or even a hung parliament.”
Nobody agrees that, not least the punters on the markets.
I see the Sunday Telegraph saying Ming will be ousted if they don’t perform well in the BY Elections. But really if perhaps they do do well, how much of that was to do with Ming. Remember Dunfermline anyone. So not sure what good results would prove. The piece was very optimisitic on the Tories in Ealing, any early gossip as to whether that is justified or not at all.
Likewise on early election. Labour’s funding maybe going well, but so well they can make it all up over the Summer. Doubt it. Next spring at the very earliest. I also think GB will surely want to avoid being conned as Wilson was in 1970, so he’ll want to be bloody sure about the Polls
To respond briefly to Edmund’s query: you can see the exchanges on last night’s thread, but to summarise - seanT proposed a wholesale clampdown, with restrictions on Islam, a ban on all immigration from Pakistan, and later a ban on all immigration from anywhere outside the EU - no Canadians, no Swiss, just everyone keep out because they might be terrorists. (Unsurprisingly he says at 17 that he was drunk, but still sees nothing odd in any of this.)
I argued that this was an extreme overreaction to a few nutters. I’m in favour of considering stronger powers to deal with the small minority of people (whether they’re Muslims or anything else) who are actually suspects (yes, including longer detention while the case is assessed, if balanced by weekly judicial review), but I’m against taking any kind of action against the Muslim community as a whole (let alone all non-EU visitors). Firstly it’s unfair, since the vast majority are innocent of anything whatever, and second it’s stupid, as we want them on the same side as the rest of the sane population.
This shouldn’t be taken as a trailer for whatever Gordon proposes - I’m just expressing my own view.
49 Nick P. Surely we have learnt from our experiences in Ulster that moving to de facto internment of “suspects” will only provide a recruiting sergeant for terrorist organizations !
Such a move would be a victory for our enemies who detest our cherised liberties that have been long fought for and worryingly from Labour appear to be too easily disposable !
36 The biggest shift in opinion from March to now is not from LibDem to Lab but from Conservative to Labour
March Yougov Con 39 Lab 32 LibDem 17 Change to latest Yougov Con -4 Lab +7 LibDem -2
March ICM Con 41 Lab 31 LibDem 18 Change to latest ICM Con -6 Lab +7 LibDem N/C
If LibDems have been switching to Labour then Conservatives must have been switching to both Labour and LibDems .
defection alert
Michael Mates, John Bercow, Ian Taylor, Sir Anthony Steen, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Lord Patten all rumoured to be thinking of leaving the Tories (and mostly denying it).
Is there a market on this?
“Remember Dunfermline anyone.” - The point about Dunfermline, surely, is that national opinion polls are less important to a party that holds only 60-odd seats out of >600, and has realistic general election targets in less than another 50 (?)
The Lib Dems can lose votes “across the board” and still increase them in target seats. They’ll get swamped in the air war over the media, but hope to win localised battles in a guerilla campaign in individual constituencies.
Having said that, the strategic problem that seant identifies remains. Whether the Lib Dems can convince electors, where they campaign hard, that they are simply “better” remains an open question.
49.
A few nutters.
A few nutters?
You REALLY don’t get it, do you.
From some recent polls of UK Muslim opinion:
1 in 10 British Muslims think the 7/7 bombers were justified. 1 in 10. That’s 160,000 British Muslims think mass slaughter of the rest of us is “justified”.
40% of British Muslims want sharia law in the UK.
56% of younger British Muslims think that someone who leaves the Muslim faith should be put to death.
13% of the younger Muslims say they admire al-Qaeda and what they did on 9/11.
14% of British Muslims think it right to attack Danish embassies because of the cartoon row.
13% think it right to act violently against those deemed to have insulted Islam.
37% of all British Muslims think Jews IN THE UK are a legitimate target for attack.
etc etc. I could go on.
Now I accept that the majority of British Muslims are peaceable. They just want to make a life for themselves and their kids and good luck to them. But in the light of all these polls, to dismiss the attempted mass murder of the last two days as “just a few nutters” is a remarkably asinine remark even from someone as myopic, deluded and silly as you.
These “few nutters” are merely the ones prepared to kill themselves in order that the rest of us die. They are the tip of the iceberg. And they draw their support from a frighteningly large and poisoned well of alienated British Muslim opinion, as the poll data shows.
What is particularly worrying is that this anti-western hatred and hostility is especially high in the UK’s Muslims, as compared to other countries. Maybe that is why we have had homegrown suicide bombers, unlike other countries.
Why should Britain be particularly unfortunate? Two words: multiculturalism, and Iraq. Or maybe one word: Labour.
51 Mark S. Whilst on the polls Mark did you notice that the ConHome poll of polls was rip off from my ARSE ??
If Tim Montgomerie and his mighty organ wanted to use my ARSE as his plaything he should have had the courtesy to ask for the pleasure !!!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/06/brown-bounces.html
43 Indeed not while there’s breath left in Chris Rennard’s body I’d have thought. If the Tories do do well, I’d have thought it was Labour not the Lib Dems that might be beaten into third place in Ealing.
53 Correct. Hence the difficulty in relating Lib Dem seat count to opinion polls or overal %. Most notoriously they dropped^% in 1997 viz 1992, but doubled their seat numbers. A gigantic if, but assuming they only lost a point or two off their 2005 score next time, it is not inconceivable they could perhaos make a net overall gain of a few seats
50. Naive of you to expect a former (?) communist to have any respect for individual liberties Jack W.
btw. can’t Brown get a suit that fits properly?
46
First of all I’m male and married!
Sceptical about most things, cynical about some, but most importantly a non-believer. I can have preferences but no belief.
Politically; a wishy-washy sort really, but, (contradicting myself I do a lot of that) I have one belief, that there will be change of government. The reason I believe that, its always been that way. I no more believe that the present government will survive forever, than I believed that the last Tory government would last forever, despite many Tories at the time telling me it would. What we don’t know yet, is what is going to replace the present government. I also believe, (there we go again) that the present Tory party cannot survive in its present, (I’m with Peter Hitchens on this one) form, you cannot weld together leftist Liberal Conservatives and traditional Tories, something has gotta give. As I say over and over again, Labour did not win three elections on the trot because it didn’t split, it won three elections ‘cos it did! Most Tories cannot face losing a fourth GE, even if you mention it, their minds shut it out, well if it happens, then the real work begins. A fourth election defeat did wonders for Labour it might do wonders for the right of centre political party that will be created in its wake.
50. Picking up on a historical point Jack there is a big difference between indefinite internment without trial and what the government propose now.
In addition internment, accurately targeted is an effective tool. In fact in comparatively recent Irish history it was used, including by the fledging Irish government to decent effect. The difference was that in the 70s when it was deployed in NI, it was very poorly executed indeed because the intelligence stank. It seemed to be used as bit of a gold panning exercise in the hope of finding some nuggets
In fact there was even misinformation spread to the military and police about the likes of completely harmless old geezers who were then scooped up causing massive community ire.
I’m not in anyway ssupporting its deployment just stating the technicalities. What the whole say 90 day detention situation, which I know isn’t supported by many police chiefs suggests is that, as well as allowing them some breathing space, that the security services are gold panning a little bit.
At least this time their intelligence at the start is a bit better than in NI in the 70s so it should be a more selective process.
“Whatever this has kept Cameron off our screens for a bit longer and that can only help Gord’s poll ratings.”
Well yes but I’m not sure how much attention Cameron would have got anyway. Let’s be honest all the focus would still be on the novelty of a new PM, and it is certain GB would have had a few “iniatives” to announce, so I’m really not sure how much in practice this affects the Tories more than if it had not happen
Regarding a focus on who are the high risk terrorists. A minority are married, a tiny minority are female, all are muslims, few do not have Pakistani roots. Few are over 40 and most have visited Pakistan in recent years.
What are the number of Males, 18-40 with Pakistini roots, Muslim, unmarried that have visited Pakistan in past 2 years? 10,000? With modern communications techniques using systems that are not oppressive or erode our liberties, I would have thought it very possible to cut that down to less than a 1,000 possible suspects.
What we then would need are 5,000 agents to monitor them 24/7.
49 - Thanks Nick, that’s what I thought I’d seen. So not much evidence of a “kneejerk reflex of reaching for more powers, looking for new laws, abandoning more civil liberties” yet.
Anti-authoritarians like myself will have to wait and see if the Brown administration turns out better than the Blair one.
PS. While I think agree with Nick that stopping immigration from Islamic countries would not be particularly helpful, I agree with Sean that we should act decisively in this case and ban the Canadians.
59 Yokel. Relying on decent intelligence from the current administration ?? Mmmhhhhhhhhhh.
The message we should be sending out is that the Britsh nation will not be cowed, threatened or intimidated into shredding our civil liberties in the face of lunatic theocracy and their evil fellow travellers.
‘At least this time their intelligence at the start is a bit better than in NI in the 70s’
Hopefully yes, but it is really not clear that it is the case. The impression is rather that the government has not taken domestic islamic extremism very seriously in recent years - except as a source of good material for scaremongering. If so, then the intelligence is likely to be relatively poor.
seanT: the expression of extreme and unbalanced views is one thing and - how shall I put this to you delicately? - not restricted to some Muslims. The willingness and serious organisation needed to commit acts of terrorism is rare - that’s why there aren’t very many of them, and why we shouldn’t impose some sort of collective restriction on Muslims.
Jack W: the problem about internment was (IIRC - before my time in Westminster) that it was used against large numbers of people on scanty grounds with no pressure to release people quickly if the evidence wasn’t there. By contrast, detention up to 28 days (which might be increased to up to 90) is used for a small number of people and subject to weekly judicial review.
The security services (and, I believe, the LibDem peer and security watchdog Lord Carlisle, whom you may know personally and can ask) say there are two current weaknesses in the legislation. (1) Because of the need to grab suspects early before any risk of terror attacks, it’s difficult to accummulate all the evidence for charges within 28 days and (2) the control orders (introduced by the Government by the court rulings that Belmarsh detention wasn’t lawfal) are not really adequate to prevent escape. I’m willing to consider changes that address these two problems. Obviously it depends on what they are, though!
61. The number will be greatly in excess of that. Many in the Pakistani communities retain strong ties with their families in Pakistan and visit on a relatively regular basis.
The retention of this link - and certainly the strength of it, often reinforced by renewed marriage ties - is one of the reasons that large numbers in the Pakistani community have failed to integrate in the same way that the vast majority of other immigrant communities have, where they’ve been here for the same length of time.
65. So there we are SeanT - you are morally on the same level as terrorists and their fellow travellers who believe in murdering people. Expect a control order against you any day now.
63. Yeah ok I understand the political point about the government. I know there will be some within it who will use it as a political and PR tool but we need to sort the bull from the straight whilst there is that doubt about the legitimacy of what pronouncements come out.
64. It is better, by how muvch we wait to see but they do have some ideas on networks etc. The possible problem they have is that they’ve rolled some of those up and may be in a comparative start again situation. I would assume, however, there are some they can’t jail at this stage or sensibly they have left some out to provide a continuing source of intelligence.
Having said that the 3 weekend attacks are potential nuggets. 3 failures, lots of material and a couple of arrested people to study. In addition he who drove the car in Haymarket apparently is very visible on CCTV. If its an already previously identified individual then they should have a series of links.
Mark Senior, you’re on 12% - 15%. Nothing can spin that away.
I see on Sky this morning that Gordon has had an ill advised experiment with some black hair dye he must have found in a bathroom cabinet in No. 10. He can send it next door when he’s finished with it, “Please try this, Darling.”
re 49. It’s not a far step from “rounding up the usual suspects” to arbirary detention. If they’re suspects then let’s have the evidence, try and convict them and lock them up.
I’m surely not the only one worried that in response to a threat which has as much chance of killing me as being struck by lightening our elected representatives roll over and head down the authoritarian route.
Well that’s it for me for a few weeks I’m off on holiday!
69 Test , there has been no genuine poll with LibDems at 12%. No attempt at spin on your part can disguise that it is the Conservative poll figures that have gone down most .
65 Nick P. Who says the number would be small ??
There would clearly not be a limit within the legislation.
Control orders are a security “no mans land” and IMO are ineffective. Either a suspect is a threat or not. Not proven is not an option.
Beef the security services up by all means. Use the cash from useless ID cards if necessary. Wouldn’t have helped yesterday would they !!. Like wise border guards are a stupid and ineffective idea.
Don’t let terrorism undermine our way of life by chipping away at our freedoms.
65. Yes Nick, I get your biting sarcasm. Trust me, I’m not about to blow myself up on a bus. I might get frothy in pubs about the EU Constitution, but it’s slightly different.
Actually, Nick, I should admit something. I have come to a conclusion in recent weeks. I have decided that, how shall I put this to you delicately?, you are just an idiot.
When I first came across you, your position as an MP and your obvious education made me afford you a kind of reflexive respect, if not admiration. But that’s changed.
I now think you are a seriously foolish if well-meaning man, unable to think outside the box. Over the many months I have read your views on this site I’m not sure you have once accepted that you might be seriously wrong, that your opinions could be questionable, that your peculiar ideological stance, comprised of one half politically correct primness and another half ex-communist authoritarianism, might not necessarily be the ne plus ultra of philosophical positions. This is, to me, the mark of someone not actually interested in debate, but someone who simply wants to put their angle and spin across, to propagandise, in the guise of argument.
Ergo, it’s impossible to debate with such an adolescent dogmatist. I’m sure you feel the same about me! Therefore I suggest we call one of our truces, and argue with everyone else instead.
I genuinely wish you well. Everyone who met you at the party says you are very nice. Some people are just meant to differ.
59,
Yokel I agree ,” accuratley targeted it is an effective tool” one we shouldn`t through out of the box, without any thought because of the 1970`s.
Different circumstances and threats must mean a state has to consider everything at its disposal to protect innocent citizens.
So if the intelligence supports action to prevent loss of life, and a independent judge concurs , it might be needed in extremis.
This is a completley differing phenomena on a differing world magnitude, to the Irish problem and its relationship to the United Kingdom.
69 Look even that well known Lib Dem Sean Fear doesn’t believe that. None of the other pollsters show it. So it is as unfair to highlight YouGov wrt Lib Dems as it can be Mori to the Conservatives
The odds on a 2007 election have now been backed down to 6.2/1 - about a third of what they were at the peak (and have resulted in a pretty overround market).
Interesting one this. For all the talk of an Autumn election, the only realistic opportunity is to call it immediately after the Labour Conference with the election in mid to late October. To go before then means cancelling the conference - something that will hit Labour coffers hard (and deny it a week’s worth of what it will assume to be good publicity); to go later will not only give the Conservatives an equivalent launch-pad but push the election back into the dark evenings of November making campaigning difficult.
The thing is, conferences these days take a lot of organising. So do general elections - even more so. To ask a party’s staff to get everything sorted in ten weeks over Summer is asking a lot.
72 I believe you had some thoughts pending on that Lib Lab seat question from the other week
Excellent point made by Ashdown today. Labour is soft on terrorism, excused by the causes of terrorism. He also said that from his experience as a UN high representative the real problem is a ‘virulent’ hate that has wide currency amongst the Islamic community as a whole. It is not just a fringe group of extremists we are dealing with, but the entire Islamic community as awhole. The Islamic ummah is at war with us.
Looks like the Lib Dems are getting serious about defending liberty against the enemy.
74 Another political lovers tiff between seanT and Nick.
They’ll be back together soon. PB’s very own Tom and Jerry !!
78 Yes , Punter , had forgotten that . I think that Labour at their worst in 1983 had just over 200 seats . Before the last GE they had nearly 400 , any LibDem gain from Labour was and is therefore highly likely to have been a Conservative seat in the 80’s . Of the gains at the last election most were but not Rochdale . Some of the near misses were not Islington , Durham , Blaydon , Liverpool Wavertree for example .
79. LDs are strongly opposed to Islamism; and tolerant of Islam.
79. Ashdown said all that?? Where? Not very PC. Or Lib Dem. Hard to believe…
71. The chances of being killed by these Islamist murderers are indeed very low. But that’s not the only aim of their terrorism. It doesn’t take many bombs - or many deaths - to seriously screw an economy. Remember the IRA in the City in the 80s - a few more bombs like Canary Wharf and they could have done some bigtime damage.
London is booming at the moment. A sustained and serious al-Qaeda attack would kill that stone dead. Rich people would start to leave. Tourism would collapse as security becomes more oppressive. Insurance companies would go bust or ratchet up premiums. Recession would beckon. People would stop investing in the UK, turning recession into slump.
Nasty.
So no you might not die, but you could lose your job or your house could halve in value.
Regarding the Telegraph article on Ming and the “must go if we get 3rd place in by elections” mantra. It poses a real dilemna for the Lib Dems who want him replaced. Should they go and campaign in these elections or stay at home and help speed up his demise.
Cameron has a big opportunity in Ealing Southall to push the Lib Dems into 3rd place.
84 Good to see another Conservative talking up their chances in Southall . Will Tony Lit resign from the Conservative party as quickly as he joined when he loses ?
81.”Some of the near misses were not Islington , Durham , Blaydon , Liverpool Wavertree for example ”
Islington South was a very close Lab/SDP fight in the 80’s. Both in 1983 and 1987 Chris Smith won with very tiny majorities. So LD/SDP has a tradition to run Labour close in those areas (in bad Labour years).
Blaydon and Liverpool Wavertree are marginal, but it’s arguable to define them as “near misses”, it depends on what you think a near miss is (both were Lab by more than 10% in 2005)
81. Well let’s exclude the one off 83-87 type seats eg Cardiff West, Newcastle Central Still the same. Anyway the point it makes about theseseats mentioned eg Streatham, Lewisham West, Birmingham Perry Barr,seats with no real Tory History seem impossible for the Lib Dems to crack. Can they really hope to do. Interesting point I would saybecause there are only few Cambridge type seats left up for grabs
re 84. Read the form book HF. The Tories don’t DO by elections. They always perform below expectations and normally their vote share drops compared with the previous general election. Maybe Southall will be the exception. But don’t bet on it.
re 74. SeanT - can you cut down the personal abuse - please
84 see 56. If you do weel. I’d far rather bet on Labour being into 3td than the Lib Dems. To borrow a phrase nobody ever got much change out of betting against Lord Rennard in a By Election
58 Funnily enough, so am I and so (increasingly) do I !
87.”Anyway the point it makes about theseseats mentioned eg Streatham, Lewisham West, Birmingham Perry Barr,seats with no real Tory History seem impossible ”
Stretham was Tory from 1974 to 1992
90.”To borrow a phrase nobody ever got much change out of betting against Lord Rennard in a By Election”
apart maybe in Moray…was there a market on Moray Holyrood byelection?
I will snap up Paddy Power’s on Jaqui Smith being the first Cabinet Minister to resgn/be sacked, it seems a “racing cert”
What a fiasco in Glasgow and no doubt an inquiry followed by her swift sacking will follow.
When the guy who got burnt was taken to hospital it was found he had an explosive belt fitted on arrival at the hospital.
Did they not search him at the scene in case they were accused of an unacceptable stop and search ?
I`m sorry but that beggars belief
Over to you David Cameron,this is another open goal for this weeks PMQ’s
HF at 84. Unfortunately for you assessment significant numbers of Lib Dem activists are already going to the by elections.
Perhaps you are being too machiavellian by half.
88 I hope Betfair have a market and HF and other gungho Conservatives put their money where their mouths are .
77. David Herdson. I can’t see Brown going for an early election unless the polls were stunningly favourable. He knows that once we are into an election campaign a poll lead by either party could be quickly eroded.
I believe he will hang on until at least 2009. He has been waiting all his political life to be PM and has great belief in his own ability to be successful in the role. So he will implement his own ideas and expects these to benefit the nation. He will be thinking that the longer he is in power the more he will be able to achieve in impressing the electorate.
So I’ve bought Brown weeks on spreadfair. Probably bought them off Mike Smithson.
93 Think that was the Scots show. Don’t think the master was there himself in person.
88. I don’t think it’s true that Conservatives don’t do by elections.
Surely it’s truer to say that Conservative voters don’t do by elections?
Conservative voters are now so used to the Conservatives doing badly in by elections that they automatically assume that a Conservative vote is a wasted vote in every by election scenario.
92 Think the rest hold. Still interesting psephological point. Do the Lib Dems always need an ancient Tory base to beat Labour outside By Elections
89. Of course, boss.
But in my defence, can I just say in the last two days I have been called “a shabby racist”, a “racist”, a “bigot”, a “BNP supporter”, an “Islamophobe”, and now Nick has sarcastically compared me to extremist Muslim mass murderers.
I could, I guess, ignore all these remarks. But I like to give as good as I get.
So yes I’m happy to desist - but a little fairness, too, please.
98. Punter, he was there as I found a piece at the time saying “Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat candidate Linda Gorn was campaigning with the party’s president Simon Hughes and chief executive Lord Chris Rennard in Cullen and Elgin” (22 April, so around a week before the byelection)
I’ve been meaning to post for a while how impressed I was with Nick Palmer’s predictions on the Deputy Leadership. Very accurate. It doesn’t matter much how accurate the rest of us were but brave of Nick to put his reputation on the line. I wish he had posted his prediction here as I might have greened up on Harman. Any way well done.
And while I’m tying up loose ends, Jack W, what’s with all the Roman numerals?
He’d have showed up like most MPs and peers, Andrea, but it doesn’t mean he was there full time and running it. In the case of Moray, I can tell you for certain he wasn’t.
Well, for once I’m not complaining about the noise of planes taking off and landing at Glasgow Airport. (I live about 3 miles away). Fingers crossed I may still get to go on holiday today.
re 101. Sean - agreed and I hope that others note. Let’s stop calling each other names.
104. IIRC he wasn’t mentioned in the press in relation to Moray until the final week. As the LDs were claiming they had a chance of an upset, when Rennard names popped in the final week some believed that maybe the “upset” claim was true
The Moray LD agent was Alison Smith (who was the agent for Gordon in 2005 and an Aberdeen Counciullor. She then became PPC for Oldham East and the she left to go to Russia)
‘Looks like the Lib Dems are getting serious about defending liberty against the enemy’
No - Ashdown perhaps, but he is not representative. More representative was Kennedy, who happily marched with muslim extremists and shared a platform with them.
106. Bob’s yer uncle. I know I can sometimes be a little excitable and “forthright”.
Actually I might go to Insulters Anonymous, to sort out my problem. Others are welcome to join me. We can have a group session.
Sawadee!
101,
Seant dont stop putting your arguments and thoughts robustly though.
They are needed to make people think, wether they agree or disagree.
As you say out of their comfort zone.
Currently on this threat its good not to hear, just the same platitudes of vigilance, as you say guarded should be the new phrase, for civilans going about their daily business in the United Kingdom.
101: just for the record, I’ve not compared seanT to extremist mass murderers (or made any of the other comments about him in post 101: I try to avoid personal abuse, however critical I am of people’s ideas).
I’ve observed that some people express extreme and unbalanced views (and yes, implied that he might sometimes do this himself - I’m not sure he would even disagree with that) that they *don’t* convert into violent action. It’s post 65 - compare this to sean’s representation of it at 101 and you’ll see why I don’t feel he debates honestly.
Do LDs select today in Southall?
Are the Greens expected to stand (4.6% in 2005)? Respect said they will stand (they didn’t stand in 2005)
111. Mike wants us to stop arguing. I’ve agreed.
Your reaction to this is to say you don’t resort to personal abuse. You then immedately say I am “extreme and unbalanced”, and “dishonest”.
Nick, we’re as bad as each other. Maybe Jack has a point!
I suggest we both have a lie down.
101Seant sorry to misquote you the word should be watchfull.
SeanT is quite wrong I think. Most people in London will simply ignore even a pretty severe attack - one thing that seperates us from the Americans is our stoicism/fatalism.
Seant is always very excitable and anxious when there’re terror attacks or risks. He once called me a “stupid woman” on 7/7 (which also was my birthday anniversary)
I think Brown (and Salmond) did OK. I always thought Blair over-reacted in the American style to these events, and of course terrorism thrives on publicity, creating panic, feeling that they are important enough to disturb the way govt is run etc. Forcing Prime Ministers to take time out of their jobs to make statements is part of the power-trip the terrorists are on. Therefore the lower key the better.
I agree with John L at 3. - this is a return to the old stiff upper lip style of dealing with terrorists. Let the police get on with their jobs and the rest of us carry on with what we were going to do anyway. If we refuse to panic and give them publicity, these tiresome people will give it up as a lost cause.
I notice Lab have taken a clear lead in the most seats betfair market. As I have posted previously the Tories need 2 variables working in their favour- they need to present as a viable alternative, and they need Labour to screw up.
Labour need just one variable, if they do cock things up, but the Tories have not set out a credible alternative they will remain dominant- this happened in 2005.
I think a 2007 election could well be on the cards- 4 months of poll leads would make it tempting
115. Quite wrong where?
I agree that the British are more stoical than most. And usually this stoicism is a good thing. Occasionally, though, it can be bad - shading into a kind of fatalism, or even outright denial, as you hint.
However my point upthread was that danger to life and liberty is one thing - we can take that in our stride - but danger to our livelihoods is quite another! When the IRA started attacking targets in the City the government came under serious pressure from the financial sector to sort out Northern Ireland, because it was bad for business. Where was our stoicism then?
If al-Qaeda had any sense, and I hope they haven’t, they would go for the economic jugular rather than “immoral” targets like nightclubs. I fear if they did, such a policy could be horribly effective.
112 - I believe the Lib Dems will indeed select later today. I would fully expect the Greens to stand although I have no specific knowledge on that.
95 dave(s)”significant numbers of Lib Dem activists are already going to the by elections” to campaign for non-existent candidates?
Is Andrea’s question right that the Lib Dems are selecting today in Ealing Southall?
Only 3 more days to wait for the Labour candidate.
116. lol
Did I Andrea? Sorry!
You’re quite right about my particular excitability when it comes to attacks on the country. I’ve noted it before of myself. I even had a theory about this, which I once trotted out on pb.com
In brief it was this: that some people are genetically programmed to be aggressive, to defend the tribe - like soldier ants in a nest - whereas some people are much more unflappable, or they simply don’t care - they are the worker ants.
Obviously I’m a soldier ant. Nick is a worker ant.
However when I put this theory to a friend of mine he suggested that I might be neither - he thought I was a “wanker ant”.
1. Does your greeting indicate you are en route to join me here in Godzone, seanT?
In the sense that there will be no economic devastation in pretty much any plausible event here… though a bit of a market meltdown is pretty much a certaintly in my view anyway but not for that reason.
Let us hope our respective views are not tested.
“to campaign for non-existent candidates?” - Presumably to campaign for the Liberal Democrats!
Sweet & Sour
Salt & Vinager
SeanT & Palmer above
It’s publishable……….
122.”Did I Andrea? Sorry!”
yes, sean. I was deeply offended that you thought I wasn’t a macho man!
115, exactly. Big shrug to them.
It is very bad indeed that the Glasgow guy was not searched and therefore allowed to bring an explosive belt ino a hospital
Don’t try to put yourself on a level with Nick Palmer, Sean. You insulted him personally, he called your *views* extreme and unbalanced, which clearly they are. Nor did Mike ask Nick to stop arguing with you. He asked you to stop the personal abuse.
It’s perhaps just as well that my response to your post 101 was caught in a spam trap.
111. What a graceless post. It’s bad enough engaging in snide personal abuse in the first place, worse still to try to weasel out of responsibility for it later.
126: Repaste for you :
47 “Lambert - Best Roundhead general after Cromwell - and that is a high measure, when you consider the talent that rose to the top during the civil war – Harrison, Fairfax, Ireton even Waller. The Scottish campaign was much of his doing, and he was famously good at marshalling cavalry – the key weapon of the war” Err so why again did his army desert when he tried to confront Monck. Good General, but religious fanatic who inspired his men through fear rather than affection then I would guess