Tipping Lines
July 7th, 2007A guest article by Mighty Fella
There is no such thing a Tipping Line for political betting but it occurs to me that PB.com operates in some respects like one and I have occasionally thought that maybe this aspect of its activities should be formalized and converted into a regular service.
Tipping lines are associated normally but not exclusively with horseracing and fall into two broad categories.
Subscription lines typically charge a flat rate fee, perhaps quarterly or annually, for a regular advisory service. The client is given directions to phone a number at a regular time, using a pin number for access, for the latest information. Costs vary enormously but generally range from about £600 to £3,000 per annum; the type and frequency of bets also varies greatly.
Premium lines can be accessed immediately from the numbers advertised in the media and normally charge about £1.50 per minute, although the real cost depends very much on how promptly the information is given.
I think it’s fair to say that Tipping Lines do have a bit of a doubtful reputation. Critics question why tipsters would pass on valuable information, rather than simply bet on it themselves. It’s a fair point, although I can understand why even the most expert might like to hedge their bets with regular income from client subscriptions, rather than rely exclusively on the wildly unpredictable high and lows of betting for a living. And if the service is a good one, it saves the client the time and trouble of finding winners in much the same way as the plumber saves me the effort of fixing the pipes myself, despite my belief that were I not otherwise occupied, I could do as well myself at much less expense.
Over the years I have tried a variety of services with extremely mixed results and whilst most have ranged from the mediocre to the near scandalous, the very best do provide a genuine and worthwhile service.
Could PB.com do so in the realm of Politics?
In the couple of years I have been a regular poster, I have backed tips for Cruddas (50/1), Obama (50/1), Ivanov (9/1) and numerous other good things; in addition, my betting bank has benefited regularly from ‘Free Money’ alerts posted by helpful contributors.
The trouble from a punting point of view is that an awful lot of material has to be sifted to find the gems. An official Tipping Line could solve that problem without necessarily detracting from the varied and lively exchanges which have made the site such a success.
At the Launch Party I mentioned the idea to a couple of PBers and the immediate response was along the lines of ‘why fix what ain’t broke?’ It’s a view with which I have much sympathy. Nevertheless I throw the question open to general debate.
The site continues to develop apace. Would a Political Tipping Line be a welcome development?
Mighty Fella
(PtP is indisposed)
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When you say a tipping line, do you mean a page with consolidated tips that are vetted or do you mean some service at some cost?
Hold on, we are mean’t to be discussing the wisdom of a greyhound?
Bloody hell…
I have to say though I think its better to keep things as they are. Quite simply its the job of the dedsicated to sift. There is a possibility of affecting some markets by means of providing straight tips without the clutter.
For example. I have gone against both Wiggins & David Millar in the prologue in the Tour De France today and fancied Fabian Cancellera. If I’d posted here some people may have picked it up but I suspect most won’t. With a straight tipping line, it would be easy for people just to simply plug into everything without any thought.
Secondly it’ll only be the subject of moaning.
I assume Benedict that it has to have some cost attached to it, however modest. To filter everything through will take time and resource.
Speaking of which..woohooo Cancellera looks a winner unless theres a shock.
Re 4, Cool, but as I don’t know anything about cycling I have not played in that market. I may have a look later and do some dabbling.
If you have any tips or guidance I would appreciate it.
I also look forward to the snooker when it is on, as it seems to me there is money to be made in knockout tournaments bay backing and laying alone.
Thanks Paul for getting me out, if only temporarily, to field responses. I’ll sort that bloody greyhound out later.
Now, there’s a lot I could say about this but my idea was, with Mike’s permission, to canvass opinion and get a few ideas, so I don’t really want to get on my high horse just yet. Nevertheless I’ll try to expand a bit as and when necessary….
Re my 5, oops, bay = by.
Silly me for the typo!
Re 6, Peter, I thought the dog wrote the article, surely it would be best if he answered questions
like my one at 1.
By the way, somewhat belatedly:
Happy Birthday Anniversary, Andrea
1 Benedict
There’s any number of ways this could work but the most obvious one would be a subscription service which gives access to the better information coming in to the site from the numerous sound judges out there. At present, it is given free, which is fine but there are certain drawbacks and a subscription line might deal with some of these as well as providing the site with a source of income.
That’s it in a nutshell.
Thoughts?
Re 10, hmm… Where would this information be made available and how much?
2 Yokel
The moaning shouldn’t be an issue. People always moan.
As to people using the service blind, yes I suppose they would, but that’s up to them. The idea is to sift out for them the crap, the ramping, astroturfing etc.
3 Yokel (again..I’m trying to deal with these in sequence)
I don’t think it would take a great deal of time and effort to run. You would have your list of trusted informants. They come up with something - it looks good - you inform your subscribers, quite possibly by email or text and then it’s up to them.
No reason why the information should not then be released on site. The subscribers will have had the chance to snatch the early value, which is not to say there will be none left by the time it becomes public property (no doubt very soon after the subscription service has released it.)
10. Peter, my initial thoughts are of the “if it aint broke don’t fix it” school. But I wonder? Obviously the cost would have to be a consideration. If it resulted in more frequent high quality political tips and we could get on to reasonable money at reasonable prices then I would be very interested. Quite a lot of ifs there.
5, Benedict
Sorry, I bloody knew I should have mentioned the Prologue on thread. Probably the most predictable bet of the entire Tour. I was very confident about it in the run up to it.
The main reason that I didn’t mention it is that I’d decided to desist in saying too much outside of political betting (and getting on my soapbox on occasion) stuff on thread. I think the reason is that whilst there are a number of people who clearly understand the ups and downs of betting, particularly on the the wonderfully unreliable world of the nags I think there are plenty of people who simply don’t and have other reasons for being patrons of pb.com and I suppose I find that holds me back.
That’s not their fault, its not of much interest to them and I’m probably not the most confident public tipster. I have enough crises of confidence on half my own bets never mind someone elses cash being involved! Sensitive soul that I am…..
I am however perfectly happy to communicate such non political betting stuff off thread. If I see another potential Cancellera, I’ll email you.
15. Yokel. Didn’t have you down as a sensitive soul.
11 It depends, Benedict, but people will only pay what it’s worth and until it has been going a while and establishes a track record, charges would have to be modest.
Just to elaborate, you had an example today of a good tip from HenryG. Henry is known by regular site users to be a sound judge and, bless him, he gives out his advice for no better reason than he enjoys it. It’s obvious people piled on because the price dropped. The PBers who benefited would have been those who, like me, happened to be around at the time. Regulars who were not around, missed out. Newcomers to the site might have ignored the information, not knowing Henry’s reputation.
A tipping line would alert all subscribers as soon as the information is available and would guarantee the authenticity of the advice, whether the subscriber knows the informant or not.
By contrast, there was a post recently from a certain ‘Charlie’ about an impeding defection from the ranks of Tory MPs. It turned out to be wholly without foundation, and may even have been mischievous in intent. A tipping line would screen out that kind of thing and *all* site visitors, newcomers or old hands, would know to be wary of such unreliable sources.
13. Peter
Understood.
The tips that move the markets are those provided by our host in his introductions. I’d be prepared to pay to have say 2 hours notice of an article including a tip. I need plenty of time, as I’d have to get someone else to place the bet for me. You need to have won surprisingly little for the bookies to have your card ‘marked’. Even with fresh accounts, they are prepared to lay only tiny amounts.
If anybody other than our host has something hot, then it becomes the subject of an article by our host. Again, the subscribers have two hours start on the bookies. If these tipsters need paying, it could be done in a number of simple ways (the most efficient would be some proportion of the subs paid).
A couple of months ago I knew definitively that Sven was headed for Man City. I wasn’t told in confidence but when I heard Peter and Yokel talking about it as a possibility and that they were thinking of having a bet on it I was in something of a quandary.
The temptation to unblot my copybook as worst tipster on PB.Com was strong but the information was from such an insider that morally I couldn’t have placed a bet myself and it didn’t seem right to tip something which I knew to be a certainty. ‘Dear Marge (Mighty Fella)’ What is the morality in that sort of situation?
16. I reckon it’s teenage angst that has stubbornly survived into my early 30s……I’m sure I could write a poem about it, but I couldnt be bothered..a kick in the backside takes less time and is just as catharthic.
15 Yokel
Of course, the advice wouldn’t have to be limited to political betting. Your cycling tip fits the bill perfectly. I’ve got one for the dogs tonight, if you’re interested. Corals are (or were) going 7/2 about trap 2 in the Wimbledon Trap Challenge. It’s great value, but you can’t really go putting that sort of thing up here for precisely the reason you gave.
Much the same applied to the Sven tip. That was well sourced. It didn’t just come from ‘a bloke down the pub’. But how is the casual visitor to know that?
On a tipping line, as long as the information is authentic and reasonably well-sourced, you could give out value bets on any subject. Wouldn’t just have to be politics, although given the orientation of the site, the majority would be.
20. Good point Roger. For this to be successful the tipping line would need to have and establish sources of reliable information wwho would be deserving of reward. But when does this become insider trading and illegitimate?
Wish you had told us about Sven. Then again we wouldn’t have believed you!
19 Thanks David, that’s a very helpful contribution of exactly the kind I was hoping to generate.
20 Roger
It’s the legality of the situation you have to watch. The morality is up to the individual.
It is very unlikely any tipping line would be privy to information so sensitive that it might be illegal to advise on it.
Peter. There’s the danger it would then morph into a betting line. Nothing wrong with that if profitable. Whoever ran it would need to have the skill to correctly identify the reliability of different sources of information. Quite a responsibility. Anyone wanting to offer tips on, for instance, horse racing would need to demonstrate their recent betting history and success to the betting line.
23 Regarding Sven, my information came from a friend who punts for a living, but usually on the horses. He does however have colleagues who punt on Sports and related matters generally so when he told me about it, I guessed it was a value bet. It was no certainty however. Thaksin might not have got the 75%, or he might have been blocked by the regulatory authorities. Or Sven could have said no.
The point is however that the source was a bit better than the legendary ‘bloke down the pub’. That’s the kind of thing that would be filtered through a tipping line. Results are not guaranteed, but the bets are very likely to be good value because they are of good provenance.
That’s the key Peter. A proven track record. A year in Provenance?
26 StJohn
It would indeed be a betting line - from the outset.
There shouldn’t be a great deal of difficulty in identifying the right sort of information. For starters, we know who the reliable informants are already. You could probably reel of half a dozen names yourself because you are a regular here. Anybody new would of course have to establish their credentials but that shouldn’t be too difficult.
You forget also that a lot of the best ‘tips’ are in fact no more than ‘arb’ or ‘free money’ alerts. No skill needed in relaying these, but punters do have to be quick off the mark, because they generally don’t last long. (Unless it’s Hills in which case there’s plenty of time!)
I don’t imagine there would be many racing tips. It’s far too difficult. Political betting is very much easier. Believe me. I’m deeply into both.
23. Oh he mentioned the rumour alright shortly after PtP suggested it might be worth a bet. Roger didn’t suggest backing it though..but the reinforcement that the story was doing the rounds was enough to make it doubly interesting. This was especially the case in that Roger simply mentioned it in a straightforward way and it was totally off his his normal posting path. Made it all the more significant to my eyes and had me running off to back it again with some more money a few minutes after I’d read Peter’s original post and got a bet on.
I think that illustrates one of the more interesting aspects of how people post suggestions and reflecting that in a more formal tipping mechanism. For example, I would couch most things whilst Henry G is straight to it in a reporting style.
28 LOL!
Yes, very witty, but I’m serious about this, not least because I’m conscious it could be changing the nature of this terrific site we all enjoy so much.
More on that anon, maybe, but I reckon it will change as it grows ever more popular and influential. The question to me is how, and will Mike and his co-administrators be able to control and direct that change?
More food for thought.
30 Incidentally, the price actually drifted after it was mentioned on here! Maybe it was the ‘Roger effect’!
I wish I was the receiver of hot tips like some of you guys. I must move in different circles.
33 Erm…actually, they don’t all win, St John.
Re 15, Yokel many thanks, though a few general hints how it works would be handy. Anyway I will have a look and see if there is any value to be hoovered up for later re-sale
Great thread by the way Peter. And all about betting! Now off out to dinner. Lobster apparently! Not sure I will be allowed to contribute further tonight at the dinner table via the Blackberry but who knows?
33. They are rare stjohn so you probably are not missing too much! Most of what we see on here (at least I think so) is based on people doing their own analysis or talking to people who do their own analysis.
Its more grind than rumour, which I think lends a bit more solidity to it.
Enjoy dinner, St John, and don’t let me distract you. However, I would welcome your further thoughts, so maybe on a later thread…or you could email me?
Bon appetite.
28. Very good St John!
30. The irony is that I didn’t bother to mention it because I didn’t think it was particularly interesting. It’s only when I heard from you and Peter that there was a betting market on it that I realized I couldn’t really say anything because it must be sensitive so all I did was say I’d also heard a rumour.
Andrea. Happy Birthday! The Anoraks Anorak! A PB.Com phenomenon! Without doubt the most knowledgeable poster on the British electoral scene AND an Italian AND in his early 20’s! Hard to believe
Re 17, Peter the Punter, fair enough. It has to be said that the advice was useful because as a new customer to betdirect I got to pick free money off the floor at the same time as the easy money.
……but you would not achieve value from the traditional bookmakers who would be amongst the first subscribers to the tipping line, under whatever pseudonym they were to choose. Would it not remove some of the, and I am in difficulty in finding the right word, niceness of this site as it currently is?
……but you would not achieve value from the traditional bookmakers who would be amongst the first subscribers to the tipping line, under whatever pseudonym they were to choose. Would it not remove some of the, and I am in difficulty in finding the right word, niceness of this site as it currently is?
……but you would not achieve value from the traditional bookmakers who would be amongst the first subscribers to the tipping line, under whatever pseudonym they were to choose. Would it not remove some of the, and I am in difficulty in finding the right word, niceness of this site as it currently is?
re 19, David Kendrick, have you tried Betfair? They don’t care if you win or lose loads of money.
Re 22, Peter the punter what time is the wimbledon trap challenge? (as all my accounts list time and venue not name
45 No idea, Benedict. Just phone Corals. They’ll know.
Re 46, Alas I don’t have an account with them
35. If anything really decent does crop up on the Tour, it will be in the next week before the mountain stages really kick off. Probably everything will be straight win or each way bets either on Betfair or with the conventional bookies.
The markets are thin at the moment and I’m hoping for a bit of a shake out as things get underway. Its often this way, the bookies just don’t take any risks at all and they don’t often make mistakes before the race starts. Cancellera was an exception, he was favourite to win today and rightly so but because of the presence of two British contenders who were in with a chance I think they left Cancelleras price too big.
Good Idea
43 “…The traditional bookmakers … would be amongst the first subscribers to the tipping line.”
Extremely unlikely, Ian. We know how little time and attention they give to political betting. It’s part of the reason why we get away with daylight robbery so often. If a PB tipping line ever got big enough to be an issue for them, they would protect themselves in other far more efficient ways. We are light years away from all that so let’s not go there.
As for the niceness of the site, I agree and wouldn’t want to do anything to jeopardise it. I see no reason why a tipping line should though. In fact, if it works, it should help to preserve that niceness.
One of the *nasty* aspects of the site is that some people post misleading information which can seriously damage a punter’s wealth. SeanT in his most splenetic mood doesn’t bother me a jot but when somebody purports to reveal information that is relavant to a sizeable bet I have had and it turns out to be misleading, deliberately or otherwise, I don’t see the funny side.
JackW pointed out recently that the site’s influence is reaching far wider than many who post here realise. I would agree with that and add that the sums that can be made by following the better PB tipsters are now quite substantial. There are however those with their own agendas who have realised this and come on site to disrupt, inconvenience, and, sometimes, cause financial loss.
Very nasty.
The tipping line is potentially a way of rendering such Creatures innocuous.
49 Noted with thanks, fr.
47 In that case, you’re beat, Benedict, unless you’ve got a local branch nearby.
Incidentally, the bet is based solely on value. There’s nothing special about trap 2 at Wimbledon. It’s just that the odds compiler got his numbers wrong and came up with 7/2 when it should have been 15/8. That’s a 14% edge. Of course it may not come in, but if we could bet on those terms all the time, we could give up the day job.
How do I know he got the sums wrong? Friend of mine who is a professional odds compiler monitors this type of bet and tipped me off about the anomoly.
Re 52, Peter, what is so special about trap 2? And why are the odds wrong?
53. Wouldn’t know, Benedict, but it’s his livelihood and he wouldn’t be putting me away so I just take it on trust.
Occasionally I pass him political tips. He takes them on trust.
That’s how it works.
Given Jonathan’s quick response to my comment on the last thread i wondered if it was like me insulting a family member. Then i saw this in the daily telegraph:
Mr Brown’s nephew Jonathan, 29, is staying at the flat after his return from an overseas trip with his girlfriend.
He told The Daily Telegraph: “I got back from travelling a few weeks ago. Gordon and Sarah offered me the keys. I only picked up the keys and that was it.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/07/nsarah107.xml
Re 54 Peter, fair enough.
50. Currently it is necessary to trawl through quite a lot of rubbish to find a few betting-related gems among the posts on this site, but I wonder if the fact that these diamonds are obscured by a mountain of dung isn’t actually advantageous for the punters among us. A site that was dedicated to providing tips only might attract a lot of attention from both punters and bookmakers, so that misprices would more quickly be arbed away/adjusted.
Post 55 and the first one off thread! Is this a record?
And by the way, how come Yokel is out and about? Didn’t the Disciplinary Committee banish him too?
58. No committee is the boss of me!
58 Peter - Do you have to wear a tracking device around your ankle, whilst out on parole?
Mike’s idea of recording bets between pbers is a good one, but I would like to see this expanded, whereby, perhaps on a separate sub-site, we could offer bets in stipulated amounts and stated odds to others on here. After all, many of us have our own notions on how particular events will unfold, but are unable to find a suitable market to back our judgement.
An example would be my hunch that Gordon Brown will no longer be Prime Minister one year hence and I am looking for odds of 6-1 against for my stake of up to £20.
60. Whats behind the hunch?
57 Well that’s OK if you’ve got the time to do the trawling, Casual, and you can accurately distinguish the gems fom the dung. Anyway, the idea is not to turn the site into ‘tips only’. That would be neither desireable nor possible. The proposal is simply to regularise what happens already in a haphazard way.
Political betting is an immature betting market. By that I mean that there are relatively few practitioners, the level of expertise is relatively low compared to mature betting markets such as horse racing, and margins are high. This will change. It is happening already and will continue, regardless of what PB does. One day, the market will probably be just as competitive as any other, although I expect I’ll be dead and gone by then.
Meanwhile, us PB anoraks have an opportunity to exploit exceptionally favorable conditions. There is just enough liquidity in the markets to feed our appetities, but not so much that the hogs from other better markets shove us out of the way to get their snouts in.
I think we should make hay while we can. The suggestion of a tipping line could help us do that. It is unlikely it will help or hinder political betting’s entry into the mainstream. That will be determined by forces well beyond this little backwater. All we can do is influence a little what is going on here, hopefully for the better.
OT Happy Birthday Andrea. Which Party do you support? Lid Dems, Labour, Tories, Other?
62…other betting markets.
63 Well today, the Birthday Party of course.
61 He could simply call a GE and lose - very unlikely.
Frankly, I just don’t see him having the bottle for it and staying the course.
63 Which Party do you support? Lid Dems, Labour, Tories?
Tories….LOL …Clearly Francis, you’re very new here.
60 Sounds a good idea, PfP. I’m sure Mike would be interested.
Betfair makes your bet about a 3/1 shot but I’ll give you 9/2 if you like.
On?
68 … and here was I thinking I was being generous - I wasn’t aware that Betfair was offering anything close to this type of bet, but I’ll pass on your counter offer thanks - perhaps I can entice another punter, like the lobster-munching stjohn, perhaps?
Happy birthday Andrea.
Was at Ealing and Southall today along with 250+ Lib Dems. What a strange constituency - it seems to be a strip 400m either side of the Uxbridge road. India at one end and £1m houses the other. Augustus was also there and I met a very nice Sikh Tory - who said he was in the running for the seat but ‘cos there was no local Conservative organisation; Central office decided on a bloke who wasn’t even a member. My chap seemed to accept this - Have to say it was a severe shock meeting a nice Tory!
Also saw the Raving Loony candidate but no sign of Labour, have they given up? The Tory literature(that I rescued from letterboxes) seemed to be based on Lib Dem stuff - surely they aren’t learning are they??
70. Labour really, really shouldnt lose that seat even in a by-election.
66. Interesting hypothesis.
69 Sorry PfP, I was a bit hasty there. Betfair’s Election Date market works out at about 3/1 if you aggregate the first two options, but I was forgetting that for you to win, Brown has to actually *lose* the election. Given that he’d be unlikely to call an election unless he thought he would win, odds of 6/1 must be the *minimum* you should take.
My apologies. Yes, see StJohn.
beer
Tipping Line?
NO!
Not till we get byelections every day!
OT apparently Republican man of the moment Fred Thompson had an interesting role in Watergate.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,,-6764276,00.html
Thanks for all the good birthday wishes!
There’s apparently an ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror. Labour lead cut to 2% (37/35/17)
76
Bang on! my forecast for the GE result this autumn.
77 Er…. and what GE would that be? Not the remotest possibility in my view.
76 have checked the mirror website and can’t see anything. Do we have the changes from the last ICM. Would that be the guardian one?
(OT) Today in Southall (four hours of walking up and down the high street in the western half of the constituency):
Loads of shops with Labour posters in the windows
Lots of shops with Tony Lit posters
Quite a lot with Respect posters
(many shops had all three next to each other)
but
only one with a Lib Dem poster (and only about two Lib Dem people with stickers on).
Maybe the Lib Dem campaign is going to be a big flop, or maybe the big swarms of Lib Dem midges buzzing around the constituency just haven’t hatched out of their larvae yet until the final week.
Changes would be Lab (-2), LD (-1), Con (nc)
79. It’s in tomorrow’s edition. I saw it reported on ConHome
81. Thank You. Difficult to see what would send 3% of people back to “others” over the last week so perhaps just margin of error churn.
80. Lots of Asian shops in my area have two or three parties posters. Its often the only way of getting everyone off there back!
Coldstone Keep calm. With the MoE that cold really be a Tory lead. I am not saying it is, you understand, but let a little caution in.
The ICM poll is posted on the reliable UK Polling Report website.
82. Andrea, if we do get a tip line i insist its you that gets the gig for the recorded voice. If you press 2 we would get you in Italian.
ICM Sunday Mirror Lab 37%Tory 35% & Lib Dem 17%
Yesh - but I got it from Andrea
83 - Easy ‘They’re all the same’, they may have thought that Brown would be different but all he’s doing is carrying on Blair’s policies, hence a drift back to others.
re 87 that’s good for Lab…the last ICM was so good that it looked freakish, which was rather suggested by the fieldwork timing. This is more solid…pretty much neck-and-neck, which is good half way through a Parliament.
Mandy is set to become a Lord…Lord Mandelson of Hartlepool or Lord Mandelson of Hampstead…with this wonderful news, I can retire to bed…good night all
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2042340.ece
87 If I put these figures into Baxter, I get:
243 Cons
354 Lab
23 LibDem
(Lab Majority 58)
Sorry, but there is no way that these figures will cause the LibDems to lose 2/3rds of their seats.
Anyone know how I can make adjustments to Baxter to force it to look more realistic.
91. I though he was ment to become Lord Mandelson of Rio! Still at least it will disbar him from the Commons or the Euro List. A few years in a pre abolition HoL is probably the safest place for him.
re 92 :I understand that 23libdems is probably too low. But if the libdem vote does drop into the mid-upper teens at the next GE, these votes have to be lost somewhere.
92. With those numbers, Anthony Wells model gives:
Lab 346
Con 234
LD 41
Lab majority 42.
93.”I though he was ment to become Lord Mandelson of Rio!”
The Daily Mail kindly informed us that his relationship with the fragrant Reinaldo from Brazil is rumoured of not doing so well at the moment…and there may be an Italian stylist now. So no Rio anymore
“Still at least it will disbar him from the Commons ”
Hartlepool CLP apparently don’t want him back…
I think I’m right in saying the LD’s were only on 17% in 97 when we won 46 seats and 18% in 01 when we won 52. Indded the big surge in 05 taking us to 23% nationally generated only an additional 10 seats? I’m sure some one will correct me if I’m a little out but my basic point flows.
Equally what looks like quite a big national drop might not be devastating. Indeed the 97 figure was a notional drop on 92 but we more than doubled our seats.
98. Lord Mandelson of Milan. Would you consider apply if mandy had a “vacancy” Andrea? Think of the perks! and you could sell the serialisation rights as well?
Many happy returns to Andrea.
Ealing Southall poster wars - I think people see what they want to see. One contributor to ConHome claimed that Southall Broadway was a sea of blue. As JohnLoony says a lot of shops, restaurants and pubs are displaying posters for more than one party. The Labour ones just started going up today. Once you get off the main drag, the striking thing is the complete absence of posters on private houses. I spotted a couple of solitary diamonds in Ealing Common ward today, there were many more prior to the local elections.
Received three separate mailings from the Lib Dems today. One sent by first class post, a pretendy newspaper, and an amateur risograpged effort with the back page upside down. Am I supposed to find their inefficiency and incompetence somehow endearing?
Is Henry G still about? I have a tennis related question.
What’s almost certainly happening with this poll is that there has been almost no change in the number of Tory and Labour supporters but the latter are just a little bit less inclined to say they will be certain to vote. Last week’s poll by ICM took place amidst the most favourable conditions for Labour possible with acres and acres of positive coverage in the media and the novelty of Tony not being there.
That’s started to ease off as, inevitably it would.
As I have been saying for months we really need to wait until the autumn, after the conference season to draw firm conclusions.
Mike Smithson - on my mobile phone
101: Yes, I agree with Mike’s comment, and also I think that terrorist explosions are not actually good for the government in power, no matter how wel lthey are handled.
However, the cats wish to make a claim! I believe that the original bet with tpfkar was on a Labour lead in the first ICM poll published in July, wasn’t it? If so, please send £20 made out to Cats Protection to me at House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA. There were two other takers, who I don’t have to hand - one (kingbongo?) specified the first regular monthly ICM poll, which this is not - I can’t remember the other one offhand and whther it was first ICM monthly or first ICM?
5.26 am - Nick are you OK!!!?
See Simon Jenkins in the Guardian (I think he is agin it unfortunately) and the FT magazine talking about the case for banning Cats and Dogs - would get my vote!
Nick Palmer, I owe you twenty quid for the Cats Protection League but must send it to them anonymously, or I can send you a twenty pound note (for obvious reasons I cannot send you a cheque). Well done the moggies, and I am happy to do it - lead slashed to 2% after coronation and bombs is just awful for Labour, and as I thought, reflects the completely distorting fieldwork period for the last polls. At this rate of decline it will be back to reality by the autumn and as we all know Gordon hasn’t the courage to call a snap election, you’l return to the sizeable Tory leads and the Tory majority of 20 seats or so I have been predicting.
Very happy this morning with the poll!
(Does Mike S being away mean no more early morning threads, Double Carpet? I love me some early morning threads).
PS if you prefer me to pay them directly please supply me with an address for them.
Test, and any other early risers, new thread now out.
99 Kevin. You mean you had three seperate items in the one day!
Amazing for so early in the campaign. If one was by post and the other two hand delivered they must have plenty of workers there on the ground. Crickey you might get another today!!
Wonder what next weekend may bring.
Reminds me, to go the bookies and see if they have the odds yet, I want to see what they would give for 2 Lib Dem wins, hoping for 50 or 66-1.
Tipping lines:
I remember an episode on Minder where Arfur tried to set up a tipping line service. The office suite was a set of three phone boxes and Terry was instructed to choose different horses for each tip to ensure some won, and then Punter would send in 10% of winnings. Arfur meantime was languishing in hospital with an ingrowing toenail.