Could this man win Southall for the Conservatives?
July 9th, 2007Will it be their first by-election gain since 1982?
Two by-elections are being held on Thursday 19th July. If the markets are to be believed, Sedgefield, where voters are choosing a successor to Tony Blair following his appointment as envoy for the Quartet in the Middle East, looks a shoo-in for Labour, as they are trading at just 1.04 on Betfair. Labour are defending a majority of over 18 thousand, with Blair taking 59% of the vote in 2005.
However, the West London seat of Ealing Southall, vacant following the death of 82-year old Piara Khabra, looks less clear cut. Labour defend a majority of 11,440 and took 49% of the 2005 vote to 24 for the Lib Dems and 22 for the Conservatives. It’s the Tories’ audacious choice of Tony Lit as their candidate that has led some to believe that an unlikely victory could yet be achieved.
Until very recently, Lit was managing director of Sunrise Radio, which caters specifically for the Asian community and is based in Southall - and indeed he didn’t actually join the Conservative Party until he had resigned his post at the radio station. Lit’s father Avtar, owner of Sunrise, stood as an independent candidate at the 2001 general election, taking 12% of the vote, which was one of the best showings by an independent in the whole of the UK.
Labour have selected the 70-year old Ealing councillor Virendra Sharma as their candidate, while the Lib Dems are fielding Nigel Bakhai, their candidate in 2005. The Greens, Respect, and UKIP are all fielding candidates, and pb.com regular John Cartwright (JohnLoony) is standing for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party - if you think he will become the new MP, “Any Other Party” is available at 30 on Betfair. Full lists of all the candidates are available on the links above. Despite the choice of Lit, it should be noted that the Conservatives are still only third favourites on the markets, currently 5 on Betfair (4 to 1 in “old money”) behind Labour at 1.42 and the Lib Dems at 4.5.
The by-elections will of course be Gordon Brown’s first test at the ballot box for Commons seats, and there have also been rumours that third place for the Lib Dems could put Ming Campbell’s embattled leadership under very severe pressure. Finally, don’t forget that the Betfair markets (current Sedgefield prices are here and Southall’s are here) will be “in-play” on polling day and will trade right up to the declaration of the result, allowing punters the excitement of betting on election day rumours and news from the vote counting. Will these two by-elections be as exciting as the Lib Dems’ sensational victory at Dunfermline or an unlikely recount being forced in Bromley?
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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Mike Smithson returns on 16th July
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The answer to your question is “no”.
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Quick test
Last night the Tory odds were 7 not 5.
I’m a non-gambler (except for charity). As I understand it on Betfair you can make money if the odds drop as well as absolute win/loss. I want to strongly suggest (esp to Mighty Fella and Mike S) that posters read the last couple of lines of my post 227 in the prior thread and act accordingly as soon as possible. Health warnings apply, no guarantees, take it or leave it, posted in good faith.
Tony Lit is a fantastic candidate. Urbane, charismatic, known in the community, with a radio station. Grant Shapps MP, our answer to Chris Rennard, is running a vibrant agressive campaign. Young Tory volunteers are matching the LibDems drop for drop. Labour are being very lazy. Keith Vaz MP has and will have a lot to answer for in derailing the selection process. Tory MPs and PPCs are also flooding the seat. They even have loudspeaker cars. Lit is working it every day. We are going to do very well.
4 - I can absolutely confirm what Test is saying! I got in last night when the odds were still 7 on Conservatives winning. Overnight they have risen to 5, almost matching the Lib Dems. I advise anyone to get in while there is still good value!
4. “Keith Vaz MP has and will have a lot to answer for in derailing the selection process.”
He wasn’t alone in the selection Panel (it’s probably the 100th time I say it). He has probably led the way, but the others followed him. So if something will go wrong because of the handling of the selection, the others who supported his view are equally responsible.
“Labour are being very lazy”
They’re probably doing telephone canvassings.
6. Andrea. By all accounts I read online and elsewhere Vaz drove this through, overriding the women’s lobby and the Sikh lobby as well. It is on Vaz.
Labour was walking through the streets banging a drum but no leaflets/canvass that I saw on Sat. Sean F saw some Lab posters. LDs seem to confirm Labour taking the seat for granted. I saw plenty of LDs, no Labs when out on the beat
Ealing Southall has the potential to be one of those mould breaking elections. However, realistically in a 3 way split the incumbent party probably has too many advantages. Worth a punt when it was 12 to 1 though! But what if?
A loss for Labour would be a big blow for Gordon. Tom Watson’s “campaign” reputation would be dented, Vaz would be rightly derided in the BME communities for his actions. A win for the Conservatives would change their image as parliamentary election campaigners. Cameron would look like a winner. For Labour they have somewhat cast aside some principles. Their NEC abandoned AWS and backed the old male asian hierachy in Ealing Southall. Pragmatic, but the fall out internally will be bad if Labour lose.
It would be the first Conservative gain since (I understand) 1982 and that was in very different times. Even if the Conservatives only push the Lib Dems into 3rd place, then their reputation as by election experts will take a severe dent. The LD campaigners will say “it is our national image” and then the focus will all be on Ming, in getting too close to Labour he may have fatally undermined his party with the anti-Labour vote.
A Conservative win or 2nd place, will also shore up their CCHQ (soon to be Lord Ashcroft) control of campaigning. It will weaken the ability of constituencies to say “we know best”.
Amazingly I was told that Labour didn’t have any leaflets because they had only just selected the candidate.
The Labour Party called the election, they set the date, The late MP, Piara Khabra had already announced that he was standing down at the next election. Keith Vaz may be responsible for the candidate selection but whoever runs the Labour party election machine has a lot of to answer if things go wrong for Labour.
My nice Tory, I met on Saturday said he was a possible candidate but because the consituency had no Conservative organisation the decision was made by Central Office!
Rik overly glossy expensive leaflets do not a campaign make! Expect the unfortunate policies (sorry not actual policies yet -please ignore them) being announced by the Conservative policy groups to have a more significant impact on the voters.
The difficulty with Ealing Southall is that all the main parties are going for it (labour maybe less visibly). As such I think it may well not change too much from last time apart from a lessening of the labour lead. If there’s an independent who scoops up votes from a particular party that might have an effect, does anyone know the status of the non party runners?
Sedgefield should be solid labour too but, although Dunfermline raises the possibility of an under the radar win, I still think that Brown’s honeymoon will stop the protest vote. All in all I’ll be very, very surprised if there aren’t two labour wins, I’d like there not to be but, even at my most optimistic, I can’t see it.
8 An interesting analysis, HF. I must confess that I have been examining this by election from the perspective of how the Parties will project the results to the wider electorate, after the result is known, whereas the impact on their internal organisations might be much more long term. If the Conservatives win or do very well, then Tory HQ will also be able to show that parachuting in an external, non-member candidate (call him an A List candidate if you wish) can be worthwhile.
ukpaul, you are a great guy. please see 4 and 5. Led the horse to water…
last post for a little bit.
11 Augustus, thank you for the remarks. I would suggest that it looks like the electorate regard Tony Lit a a member of the community (through Sunrise) and living a few miles outside the boundary is not exactly “external”. The lesson would be that you have to have a candidate with local connections that resonates with the community.
I do wonder why the LDs were slow to select Nigel when he had been the PPC in 05? In a campaign lasting under 20 days, throwing away 3 days to publicise a candidate maybe fatal.
After today there are only 9 campaigning days left.
There has not been this much ramping in an election since Chris Huhnes’ campaign for the LibDem leadership . The Betfair market is thin enough for a couple more bets to make them ” favourites ” . Appears now that the so called defection announced yesterday was another false story - ok lie - designed to boost the Conservative campaign . Of course at the end of the day , it is the result that counts and a poor Conservative performance will destroy their credibility just as talking up their chances in Manchester City Centre and Brooklands did there .
LDs claim that they canvassed more people this weekend in Ealing than they have managed in any by election in the last decade.
Getting the impression from some posts that the LD by election m/c is getting a reputation for being able to win anywhere. It pulls off some spectacular wins and Ealing fits the catagory for that potential(although there being no clear cut 2nd makes it more of a challenge), but there are by elections that they don’t go for. From memory (and this may be a poor memory so please correct me Andrea if I’m wrong, but The Wirral and Uxbridge by elections fell into this catagory I think- clear Lab/Con fights).
Labour should win this seat.
According to Susanne Lamido “Postal votes go out on Monday and so the very first votes will be cast on Tuesday. Campaigners know they are the now the decisive factor in election campaigns.”
I agree with her last point. The question is, who will have the most influence at this stage to influence those votes?
Tony Lit has had the most publicity partly because he was chosen first and the Sunrise link gives him a high recognition factor.
Nigel had the benefit of the 05 campaign but has been relatively quiet since and failed to win a local councillor seat.
Virendra has the “20 year” factor of having been involved in local politics as a councillor etc. But his election material may at best be 1 delivered leaflet by the time postal voters are deciding.
http://susannelamido.blogspot.com/
It’s a tough call for the Lib dems to win such a short campaign -nad the same goes for the Cons.
However main problem for Labour will be getting out their vote.
Best guess is that labopur hold both with a dsignificantly reduced majority.
Wouldn’t like to call on second and third positions between cons and Lib dems.But a lot rides on this for Dave.Third places could intensify the pressure on him after a rocky few weeks whilst two third places could be the final nails in Mings coffin
Rogerh
Just to add to my post above and I make this point for the punters on here.
The Lib Dem candidate Nigel Bakhai lost in last year’s council elections in Ealing Common. He was 5th in a 3 member ward. Another Lib Dem was elected, the other 2 elected were Conservatives.
http://www.ealing.gov.uk/services/council/elections/results/council/council_elections_may_2006/ealing_common.html
14 on occasion Mark Senior makes a valid point, infrequently but it happens, and I think he has made one here. If the tories come second it will be a major achievement. I hope we win but I don’t think tories should get carried away and there does seem to be a bit of hyping. Having said that it makes a nice change from the LDs by-election chances being ramped into hyperspace.
Anyway best of luck to JohnLoony - who makes some of the best posts on PB - he’d get my vote.
19. Not relevant. This is a Parliamentary By election, with a cast of thousands, not a local ward election for the Borough council with a bit of enthusiasm but no resources.
If John Loony does win, do all the other party leaders have to resign?
(BTW thanks for the article Paul)
18 - it would be interesting to see how two third places would affect Ming.
I haven’t been involved in by-elections for a long, long time, but in 2005, I would have been tempted to go and help the Tories in order to get Kennedy to resign as leader (as I knew quite a lot about his “difficulties” then). As it was, Kennedy went within a few months anyway.
I wouldn’t wish LD humiliation in either of these in order to get Ming to stand down.
The betting is pretty thin now. I wonder if the fact that the Tories are now second favourites with Betfair will be used in their campaign literature (”It’s a straight fight etc…”). Suggest Chris Huhne gets his mates to shove a bit of money on a LD situation to redress the situation.
Yokel - of course Labour will win this seat. Losing it would be inconceivable.
Anyone in the campaign able to say what % of the voters have postal votes? (Yes I have asked before).
I think we can take Rik ‘I’m the next MP for Sutton’ Willis’s predictions with a pinch of salt.
And as for the notion that Grant Schnapps is somehow the equal of Rennard…
I think punters wanting to bet on Southall should ignore the Tory ramping and look at the facts.
I asked the question on a previous thread to which no-one has yet replied - when was the last time the Conservatives won a by-election from third place? In fact when was the last time they won any constituency from third place?
18 - it would be interesting to see how two third places would affect Ming.
I haven’t been involved in by-elections for a long, long time, but in 2005, I would have been tempted to go and help the Tories in Cheadle in order to get Kennedy to resign as leader (as I knew quite a lot about his “difficulties” then). As it was, Kennedy went within a few months anyway - and Cheadle was comformably held anyway.
I wouldn’t wish LD humiliation in either of these in order to get Ming to stand down. The situation is different to what it was with Kennedy.
The betting is pretty thin now for ES. I wonder if the fact that the Tories are now second favourites with Betfair will be used in their campaign literature (”It’s a straight fight etc…”). Suggest Chris Huhne gets his mates to shove a bit of money on a LD win to redress the situation
Can’t see how having a 70 year old candidate will damage Labour. Given that Piara Khabra was 82, this guy is youngster. Electors are used to having a senior citizen as an MP.
26 - “In fact when was the last time they won any constituency from third place?” - the answer is Old Sarum in 1728.
This is a genuine question (for Andrea perhaps?) when was the last time the Lib Dems failed to win a by election which they started in second? Ever?
I don’t ramp.
Can I commend Rik for making his first political bet? He has frequently been accused here of ramping when giving us his view as he sees it. He has this time put his money where his mouth is, and we await the outcome with interest.
There may be markets on defections that will interest him too!
Even Interpol are complaining about the government’s lack of border controls.
ttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/09/nterror109.xml
A year ago this would have been a clear Lib Dem win with Labour limping in second. It would have had as much national impact as Dunferfiline ie none. This time though it’s different.
If the Lib Dems win it’ll shore up Ming. If they come a poor third it could be the end of him.
If the Tories win Dave’s bandwagon will start rolling again but if they come third those already sick of his modus operandi like choosing a non Conservative candidate who he met at a coctail party because he was Asian and owned a radio station will start asking serious questions about his flim flam leadership.
By contrast Labour don’t have a lot to win or lose. Win and it’ll be Brown bounce lose and it’ll be typical incumbent by-election. And Sedgefield being a certainty will offset any bad result in Southhall.
23. 27 - SBS - Tories are third favourites for both Southall and Sedgefield.
In fact the Lib Dems odds in Southall are nearly twice as short as those for the Tories (2.32 to 4.5).
33 - “If the Lib Dems win it’ll shore up Ming. If they come a poor third it could be the end of him.”
So what is the best result for the LDs in the long run?
35. A good question. The LDs will come third in Southall, I imagine second in Sedgefield.
26 - Dan, “This too will pass” Little, if anything, stays the same. When was the last time Labour were in government for >10 unbroken years? When was the last time Labour fought such an inept campaign, with such a poorly chosen candidate?
Well, on the second point, Labour have a lot of track record: Falkirk West, London Mayor, That Welsh seat… they’ve only ever lost such contests to “independent Labour” so far, but I can easily envisage Labour losing lots of votes and the… unconventional Tory candidate attracting them.
Personally, I suspect that the Lib Dem vote will hold up/increase sufficiently to prevent the Tories taking it. I’d have thought it likely only a small percentage range would cover the top three parties.
Lit will beat the Lib Dems into second place, and slash the Labour majority, but I think winning this seat is a bit of a tall order.
If we were 10% ahead in the polls maybe I might think differently but, alas, we are not.
I imagine Con vote share will be stable at 23%, add something like 10% for Lits personal support, the result will be something like..
Conservative: 10211 (33.6%)
Labour: 11792 (38.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5896 (19.4%)
Other: 2492 (8.2%)
Majority: 1581 (5.2%)
Turnout ~ 37%
OK, gauntlet thrown down
Beat that!
Labour are certainly doing themselves no favours by picking a 70 year old candidate, the Tories choosing a young go-getter should boost their vote, but win thats a tall order.
33 no roger - Lab lose and it’s the official end of the Brown Honeymoon. Anyway, how come ‘incumbent’ government - I thought we had a brand new government with a brand new PM and a brand new set of superstar ministers who were busy rescuing Britain from the slough of despond that was ten wasted years of Lucky Tony.
for someone who accuses others of partiality you certainly provide good lessons in how to achieve it.
33. So where was this cocktail party? Probably in your fevered imagination as usual.
33 - You sound like you are preparing us for bad news, Roger! It would be pretty awful for Brown to lose either seat - instant rejection.
He was supposed to be “change”. To become a mid-term incumbent within a few weeks would be a bit of a blow.
36 - but will a third place in Southall help the LDs more in the long run than winning it?
34 - “Tories are third favourites for both Southall and Sedgefield.” Yes, they are now, but the Tories have had shorter odds on Betfair for about the last hour, till just now. IT’S NECK AND NECK!
“In fact the Lib Dems odds in Southall are nearly twice as short as those for the Tories (2.32 to 4.5).”
I’d say it’s VERY safe to lay off the Lib Dems in Ealing.
I’d risk oooohh, £120 to win £50?? Nice little earner.
*Sigh* if only I had £120 spare…
Sometimes when you are close to a by election it’s easy to get carried away. Tories are fighting this well, and appear to have learned many lessons from Lib Dems in by election technique. The irony is that the better the Tories do, the less likelihood of Lib Dems causing an upset - if it’s ‘three way’ it’s easier for Labour to cling on. Difference is that Tories are unused to doing well in by elections and therefore getting over excited about their chances. I don’t think they are ramping - they are genuinely being over optimistic! I don’t believe Tory Central Office believe they can win this - but they do know they would gain kudos from coming second.
15- We were not slow to select - we were bloody quick considering we followed our open selection procedure and didn’t ‘parachute’! This has been a big advantage for us since we haven’t had to deal with the local internal ill-feeling that has dogged the other two campaigns!
All I see is a lot of very small money bets shifting the Betfair odds almost by the minute. It’s a game. More interesting, I see that the William Hill “first event” Special isn’t yet back up today, and I wonder whether it will be if the background remains as silly.
7.”By all accounts I read online and elsewhere Vaz drove this through, overriding the women’s lobby and the Sikh lobby as well”
Test, he certaily pushed for it and that outcome. However he should have had someone backing him to reach that outcome. So the “followers” are IMO also responsible as the “driver”. They can’t just hide behind him.
The rejection of the AWS itself is probably not a cause of problems for Lab. Gurcharan Singh was very vocal against the AWS and tried to claim it was a way for Khabra and his supporters to stop him.
37 “Personally, I suspect that the Lib Dem vote will hold up/increase sufficiently to prevent the Tories taking it.”
or… personally, I suspect that the Tory vote will hold up/increase sufficiently to prevent the Lib Dems taking it.
Brown will look bad if the Labour majority suffers in either seat.
Look at how Bromley affected David Camerons image?
Brown not only needs to win, he needs to win handsomely to vindicate his leadership.
Anything less will be a failure.
Like I said, I don’t ramp.
5 LABOUR COUNCILLORS DEFECT TO EALING TORIES
INCLUDING CLLR SINGH WHO HAS A PERSONAL VOTE OF 3000 PLUS
SEE IAIN DALE
Sorry you guys did not believe us. But we did everything we could.
THE INDEPENDENT SIKH CANDIDATE IS ALSO THROWING HIS WEIGHT BEHIND TONY LIT
Really Mark Senior, try to think better of people. I very very rarely advise people to risk their own money and when I do I am sure of my information. Rik tried to help also, obviously without leaking early anything that might not assist our party. Well done to anybody who got on last night when I first suggested it and the odds were 7s or higher
“INCLUDING CLLR SINGH ”
and he showed why he wasn’t suitable to be shortlisted. He didn’t go Indy, he went Tory
From Iain Dale, including statement by 5 Labour councillor defectors and one Sikh independent candidate defector to the Tories
“Tom Watson MP, Labour’s by election campaign manager in Ealing Southall, has just had the shock of his life. Five Labour councillors in Ealing Southall have just defected to the Conservatives and the Independent by-election candidate, Gulbash Singh, will this morning abandon his own campaign to become Ealing Southall’s next MP and instead join Tony Lit’s campaign. The Ealing Five, as they are bound to become known, have just released a joint statement…
It has become increasingly obvious as this by-election campaign has progressed, that the Conservative candidate Tony Lit is the best person to represent Ealing Southall as our next MP. He’s energetic, dynamic and displays the kind of qualities that would make him ideally suited to represent the people of Ealing Southall. We wanted to provide him with our backing and joining the Conservative Party sends the clearest possible message.
Locally since Conservatives took control of Ealing Council in May 2006 we have noticed that they have been making great strides towards trying to improve the quality of life for all our residents. We’ve finally reached the stage where it has become blatantly obvious that we would be doing own voters a great disservice if we continue to dogmatically stick with a disorganised and divided Labour Party. Our goal is to see genuine improvements for our residents. We believe that the Conservative Party now provides our community with greater opportunities and is genuinely interested in improving services for all.
At a national level we are extremely impressed by David Cameron’s modern Conservatives and, with the changes that he has now made, we feel that the Conservative Party now best represents our views. In a sense we believe the
Conservatives have become our natural home and we are very excited about the opportunity to play a full part in a Party which we believe is destined to form the next government.”
As for Keith Vaz, he is the self appointed most important Asian politicain in the country. He comes from west London, he was educated at Latymer School, his sister was once Labour candidate for Richmond upon Thames where he was a council official and he lives in Stanmore.
He should know west London and its politics, perhaps better than those who have never been there.
49 - This is more ramping. So not only does Labour have to hold on to 2 seats (and in any other period I would expect Ealing to go LibDem) but Labour must have nice, substantial majorities for Gordon to claim success?
Next you’ll be telling us that anything other than a 75% Labour vote will be a disaster for Gordon.
Look, Sedgefield should be an easy Labour win, Ealing will be a closer battle, but I still expect Labour to win it. The Tories are starting to believe their own propaganda.
49 is exactly right. A very weakened hold in Bromley was a blow to Cameron at the start of his leadership. Clinging on by your fingernails to a safe seat (IF they do) will end Broon’s honeymoon.
38 - I doubt the Lib Dems will lose vote share. So I’d go for something more like:
Lab - 35%
Con - 30%
LD - 25%
Oth - 10%
WITAN - if you look at the last thread I’ve responded to your point about tax on alcohol. As you will see I am more or less restricting my argument to one type of alcoholic beverage.
The 5 councillors seem to come from Lady Margaret and Southall Broadway wards
54.”Labour candidate for Richmond upon Thames where he was a council official and he lives in Stanmore”
She was also involved in Ealing politics IIRC
40. Kingbongo. That was a rare impartial post! I’m surprised you never mention Witan. Irrespective of topic he rolls out CCO press releases all day long providing link after link to Tory praising or government criticizing articles (See post 32). She or he is almost certainly a Tory party worker employed for this purpose.
56 - You say you don’t ramp, Test, yet you agree with those that do!
Well I am delighted that news of the 5 (+1) defectors has broken this morning. Some of us were sworn to secrecy. So Dan at 26 - care to apologise now?!
Does anybody know what percentage of the electorate in ES is Sikh? And how the Sikh community has traditionally voted?
60 Another crazy statement from the Village Idiot.
Do you think that Labour will send Lord Mandeslon around canvassing?
Surely anyone who says “I don’t ramp” is, er, ramping…
spent a bit of time in Southall yesterday, mainly around Broadway and the station.
Sunday is a busy commercial day, shops open til 7. Sikhs going to temples etc.
Had trouble parking, so did cover quite a few residential streets, Labour leafleting well in evidence and some posters for Virendra Sharma. Several all-male Labour canvassing teams including Sikhs in the Broadway.
Simon Hughes was there for the Lib Dems. Various young spotty sandal-wearers were coming off trains with bundles of their propaganda to distribute. Shops had quite a few Bakhai posters but more in the Halal/Muslim businesses many also with Respect posters (they also had a guy with a loudhaler on the street corner).
The Tories had huge prominent banners for Tony Lit around the businesses but I asked myself how many of the owners were local voters. He had a car driving around with recorded messages in various languages.
I didn’t get to the more Tory-inclined Ealing areas.
My sense was that a short campaign and replacement of Khabra with a lookalike local veteran Sharma (albeit a Hindu) should mean a Labour hold.
What are you talking about Flump. I knew this news last night. I also knew the party was holding it til this morning. I had zero intention of leaking it. I would never betray any sort of Tory party confidence. However I did my level best to advise bets on the Tories (first at 227 last night). I have no money on the outcome, I don’t gamble except for charity. It was a public service announcement and I went as far as I could within the bounds of party political propriety.
Not one not two but FIVE Labour councillors, including the former leader Cllr Singh, who Sikh posters on Wells’ site claim has 3000 personal votes AND the Sikh independent are behind Tony Lit. Obviously, LibDems are totally finished now. Tony Lit’s campaign has all the momentum. A terrific vote for him and massive increase of the Tory position is guaranteed.
Re 65, SBS,”Do you think that Labour will send Lord Mandeslon around canvassing?”
We live in hope!
Well if the Lib Dems are pushed into third place after this amount of effort, it is a nail (final?) in Ming’s leadership coffin.
Chris Rennard told activists over the weekend “we have canvassed more people than in any other by-election weekend for over a decade.”
All that effort and then third would point the finger at Ming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2042340.ece
Mandy news…
The Tories will not win Southall. They will come 3rd as usual with a lower vote share than the GE and the LD’s will push Labour hard.
This has been the pattern of every by election in the last 10 years- why should it change now?
27. There simply will not be two 3rd place Lib Dem finishes. The Tories are non existent in Sedgefield as they throw everything they have at Ealing Soutall. The only question there is whether the Lib Dems can actually put Labour under pressure for first place. Highly unlikely, but watch this one. I think Labour’s majority will be a lot less comfortasble than people suggest. Re Ealing, as the Labour campaign seems the most gaffe prone ever, the odds on them finishing 3rd just seem to increase they could well end up being squeezed this time I think particularly by the Lib Dems who wil point to Lit as a reason for Labour voters to support them
Is there any chance Labour can come third in Southhall - would be funny?
Oooohh!! Temper temper “Redflump” (hahaha - your name says it all)
“49 - This is more ramping. So not only does Labour have to hold on to 2 seats (and in any other period I would expect Ealing to go LibDem) but Labour must have nice, substantial majorities for Gordon to claim success?”
Couldn’t it be that it’s YOU who are trying to manage expectations by saying Labour don’t need to improve their majority?
Remember, Gordo only took over less than a fortnight ago, he’s supposed to be “change”, be “popular”, be “strong and serious” and voters are supposed to like it. Not to mention right in the middle of his honeymoon!
If you can’t improve on the 2005 result when everyone who voted Labour did so with clothes pegs on their noses on the lowest % share of the vote for a governing party since the war AND when Blair was at the height of his unpopularity and did abysmally in Labours safest seats, then Gordon has achieved nothing. Zilch. Zero. Nada..
He will have totally failed to convince his own people he is the change.
That is a seriously bad position to be in.
Inside you, you know it too. You’re just too damn partisan to admit it on a public forum.
Labour need to improve on their 2005 result; else Gordon has achieved nothing.
Why on earth did Labour allow Watson and Vaz,two complete losers anywhere near Ealing Southall?
72 Because the Tory opinion poll ratings are better than they have been for ten years possibly……..
And while the Tories are not yet in Lord Rennard’s class all the reports say their campaign is at last beginning to look professional again
So, the Conservatives now hold most council seats in Ealing Southall. Plainly, there does seem to be some sort of momentum to the Conservatives’ campaign, but our awful track record in by-elections makes me cautious about predicting success.
Southall is something of a misnomer though, for a seat that takes in Ealing Common.
Test, I meant you agreeing with post 49, not about these councillors. Casino Royale is setting the bar higher and higher for Labour and you are agreeing with this analysis - which is complete ramping! Setting Gordon and Labour up for a fall is boring!
Links: Iain Dale story
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/07/five-labour-councillors-defect-to.html
ConHome: Bombshell for Brown
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/07/bombshell-for-b.html
72 Tyson “The Tories will not win Southall. They will come 3rd as usual with a lower vote share than the GE and the LD’s will push Labour hard. This has been the pattern of every by election in the last 10 years- why should it change now?”
Er 1. Lowest poll rating in many years for Lib Dems?
2. Ming?
3. An effective Tory campaign?
4. An uninspiring LD candidate?
Has the “Southall Five” story been confirmed anywhere yet?
78. That is why the actual constituency name is Ealing Southall.
Anyone remember quentin twofaced-tool? Revenge is sweet.
72. “The Tories will not win Southall. They will come 3rd as usual with a lower vote share than the GE and the LD’s will push Labour hard.”
*snigger snigger!*
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you; “Tyson” and “Redflump”.
Two of the most delusional Labour party supporters on the planet!
Maybe you two should team up with Chris Paul and go on tour or something?
Could do with a laugh
79, Flump, I don’t think there’s any danger in Sedgefield. But I ask you in all honesty. When we held Bromley with a massively reduced majority, did you at that time, or did you not, post anywhere that it was a blow to Cameron’s leadership to cling on just barely to a safe seat?
Did Mark Senior?
Can any of you anti-Tories say you did not?
I don’t think so. If Brown either actually loses or almost loses a totally safe seat, it will be a big blow to his credibility. The paralell with Bromley is absolute.
There’s going to be an awful lot of by-elections in Ealing as these 5 Labour elected councillors resign their seats and fight under their new colours !!
Anyone have any idea to what extent the LibDems byelection successes depend on Tories voting tactically for them to keep out Labour?
I’d assumed that this, along with Labour problems turning out their supporters, was what allowed them to pull off such spectacular swings.
If that’s the case, I’d have thought we could assume that:
a) The Tories coming from third place won’t be able to get a bunch of LibDems switching to them however good their campaign, so they won’t win.
b) If the Tories have a reasonably strong campaign this time, the LibDems won’t be able to get the tactical switchers, so they won’t win either.
So the byelection will be won by either the Labour geezer or John Loony.
Or is there something wrong with my assumptions?
E-mail from Ming received this morning contains the following information:-
“Chris Rennard tells me that over the weekend we have canvassed more people ( in Ealing )than in any other by-election weekend for over a decade.”
Identifying supporters and getting them out on the day with a substantial knocking-up team will have a major impact on the final result.
“Setting Gordon and Labour up for a fall is boring!”
Come now Redflump, be honest. It’s not “boring”, it just upsets you and makes you unhappy
Three candidates, all male. One has hair.
So who will win?
Time for Jack W’s ARSE analyser? Or ask a person with taste such as Andrea?
The reason I think it unlikely that the Tories will take southall however popular their candidate is that his recently chosen party doesn’t have the ‘everyman’ appeal of the Lib Dems.
Anti government voters can always coalesce around the lib Dems in a way that they can’t around the Tories who have their own anti voters
86You mean if Labour just hold Sedgfield that’s the best equivalent to Bromley. Although Ealing Southall is a safeish seat I think it is not iirc in Labour’s top twenty
72
‘The Tories will not win Southall. They will come 3rd as usual with a lower vote share than the GE and the LD’s will push Labour hard.’
Maybe you are right as it would be a massive ask,I think a Labour hold is more likely,still all is not lost if the Tories come second and manage to piss into the Lib Dem’s soup.
75 - absolute tosh of the highest order!!
Labour has had the most terrible last 18 months in government. We have now regained a (slim) lead in the polls. Listen, Labour would be almost certain to loose Ealing before Gordon took over. The fact that we are still favourites to hold on to the seat is someting to be thankful for (even though I won’t believe it until the votes are counted).
I am a partisan poster and I have never denied it. I always, however, try to be fair minded and neutral when it comes to anlaysing trends, polls, results etc. I simply do not buy your analysis that anything short of a 2005 style result for Labour will be terrible for us. Holding both seats will be good - believe me, after that last 18 months, getting two holds will be a good start for Gordon.
And I’m afriad I can’t help what your perceptions of me are, old fruit. I’m far too old for name-calling.
Well, we are all in agreement at last. It’s a two horse race. Now let’s see if we can agree which two horses they are. Perhaps it’s between the Lib Dems and the Tories, with Labour out of it?
Can anyone imagine Roger in Southall? That would be a joke and a half
60 roger You are unreal. I wish someone would pay me for the pleasure of being on this site. Sadly they do not do so.
Stonch, thanks for the reply on the earlier thread. my brief reply is there. Nothing earth shattering.
The Tories have NEVER won a by-election from 3rd place. You would have to go back to the break-up of the Coalition government in the 1920s to find even a weak analogue. (Mabel Phillipson succeeds her husband, “gaining” Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1923 for the Tories. He was a Coalition Liberal, and there was no Tory candidate in 1922)
I don’t think the Tories have ever gained a seat in a General Election from 3rd place either, although there may be similar “Coalition disintegration” examples in the 1920s.
The last time the Liberals failed in a by-election to win a seat in which they started second was the Liverpool Walton by-election, 1991.
Is it possible Labour could finish third in Southall? That would be a FIRST (apart from the special case of Mitcham & Morden, 1982)
Could it be like Brecon & Radnor, 1985, with a close finish between the two opposition parties?
Or could Labour hang on with a ridiculously low share of the vote, say 30%, due to a fragmented opposition?
I somehow doubt it, although it’s shaping up to be very interesting, However, I guess the result will have more to do with local Asian politics than any clear indication of the national picture.
88: No I agree. A strong Can and LD campaign simply neutralises each other and ensures a Lab win on reduced majority.
However, if this multi-defection story is true, it changes things. If the Lab campaign implodes then it could become a straight fight between LD and Con for the seat. In this scenario, I think the LDs could win if they hoover up the remaining anti-Tory vote.
89. did that e-mail from Ming mention Sedgefield at all?
Looks like they’re taking ealing far more seiously (understandable I suppose) After all, even the Sedgefield Lib dem website has a button saying “ealing will prove a tougher test for labour”..
100. It’s perfectly true MBoy, links are above.
91 HF. It’s PISSED you’re after !!
The SOAMES weighting will also have to take in the substantial fnick analytical difficulties in this seat.
101. Only that the level of canvassing was acheived whilst ‘ many people ‘ were also working on the Sedgefield campaign.
66 IA So if you say your are innocent your must, er, be guilty?
A defeat for Brown in Ealing Southall, would be catastrophic for Brown. Double that if the Tories were the victors or close runners up.
LD wins can normally be put down to local factors and “laughed” off in that they are not repeated all over the country in the next GE. If the Tories win or come a close runner - up then that puts a different complesion entirely on things. When Labour were in opposition and won seats like Dudley and Wirral west by large swings it was quite obvious the writing was on the wall. Should be interesting anyway as i like watching by-election results anyway!
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A point i noticed yesterday on the declassification of Cannabis worried me intensly. It was made by a law maker: I would refer the said lawmaker to any mental health centre, clinic or charity and speak to the consultants at those places about the “triggers” of Phychotic episodes and more serious illnesses in the under 30’s.
Any drug like this is very Harmful - I have seen when at University Cannibis warp yung peoples mind’s - one bloke used to smoke the stuff all the time and he became petrified of Black bin bags because he thought there was a void inside them. The same bloke also thought a goblin vaccum cleaner was a darlek!!!
What his parets thought i don’t know but he used to say “Hay man……..even to them!” The bloke was completly mashed and he was only 19/20.
88 (and my 57) - Looking at the 2005 result, it seems that the Lib Dem vote last time was boosted by votes they took from the independent Lit snr, who ran in 2001, but not in 2005. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that many of these votes will now swing behind Lit jnr for the Tories. So the Lib Dems could well fall back, contrary to my earlier suggestion.
Losing, or coming close to losing, would indeed be bad for Brown (49, etc), but not nearly as bad as Bromley. It’s governments that generally lose by-elections, not oppositions (ref RodCrosby and his swingback analysis). Bromley was a shocker, but I seem to recall it was a shocker due to the actions of the local party, rather than the Tory central organisation. Not sure you could say the same for Labour here.
95 RedFlump
“Holding both seats will be good - believe me, after that last 18 months, getting two holds will be a good start for Gordon.”
Will you please answer my question Flump in honesty. Did you say holding Bromley just barely was a blow to David Cameron’s leadership or didn’t you. You must apply the same circs to Brown in *his* honeymoon.
I have no problem with you being “partisan” - partisan is one of the most pathetic insults to fling around a political blog. It means you believe passionately in a philosophy and nail your colours to the mast, without the fake pretence of being all things to all men. But a lot of insults were flung our way last night and this morning (Mark Senior) for “ramping” when I was trying to help posters make money at 7-1. It would be nice, partisan or not, to just ADMIT IT if you said Bromley was a bad result for Cameron, even though we held the seat.
5 Labour councillors defected to Tories in Southall - bbc 24
Meanwhile …. since Rik W and his nag have removed to Berkshire it appears our doughty Squadron Leader has been busy on the population front !!!
“Rik W Breeding Here”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/6282462.stm
109. See 50
“We have now regained a (slim) lead in the polls.”
You are 1% up on 2005. Well done. *claps hands sloooowly*
“Labour would be almost certain to loose Ealing before Gordon took over.”
Er, you held Hartlepool, Livingstone and Hodge Hill? All Labour by-elections holds in the last 3 years. Losing would have been nowhere near a certainty in Ealing Southall. It has a very loyal Labour vote.
“I always, however, try to be fair minded and neutral when it comes to anlaysing trends, polls, results etc.”
Sorry, Redflump, but you don’t. You’re simply aren’t fair minded and neutral. In fact, that very phrase; “fair minded and neutral” is directly at odds with your earlier sentence; “I am a partisan poster and I have never denied it.” Make your mind up.
You are trying to spin Labours imminent terrible performance into a “not so bad” performance for the sake of shoring up Gordon Browns leadership. Unfortunately, the methods you use are so unconvincing it destroys your credibility.
Even Nick Palmer manages to command respect for his views, because he at least trys to see the other side of the coin.
Gordon needs to improve on the 2005 result to demonstrate he can win back those voters Labour lost to the Libdems in 2005 and that he can stave off a Tory revival.
If he can’t do it here amongst his natural supporters, he sure as hell can’t do it in the marginals.
13 Because the Lib Dems have a democratic selection process, even in a by-election, and have to allow time for members to have at least a couple of days notice of the selection meeting.
108 - Yes, I probably did say that Bromley was a blow to Cammy’s leadership. Which it was. BUT I believe 2 holds will be good for Gordon. Even if we keep hold of Ealing (albeit narrowly) this will be due to the Brown honeymoon. Without Brown, I really could not see us holding the seat at all. So you are not comparing like with like. Pre-Brown, I would expect us to loose Ealing to the LibDems. WITH Brown, I believe he will help us to hold the seat. I am coming at this from a very pessimistic viewpoint. And I am being honest here! The win would signal a Brown Bounce - however narrow it is.
108 Test. Bromley was a bad result for the Tories. Oppositions rarely lose or come close to losing safe seats !!
In comparison governments regularly lose mid term by-elections. There are surely non contestable electoral facts !!
Can I comment on this from a betting perspective?
Regardless of your politics, five local councillors defecting from an incumbent party in the middle of a by-election campaign is pretty major stuff, particularly as they are now supporting a young, charismatic challenger.
Test and Rik obviously knew this last night and gave regulars enough hints to allow us to make some money. Certain other posters allowed their Labour and Lib Dem sympathies to over-ride their gambling instincts and rubbished the story. Fair enough - this is POLITICAL betting and most of us have ideological sympathies.
What is inexcusable is for these same posters to continue to rubbish Test and Rik now that it is clear they were telling the truth last night. The news HAS shifted the market. There really was money to be made.
It would be nice to see some apologies.
109 I am surprised that this is not on the BBC Website.
101 I think they will kick themselves ifthey do not take Sedgefied seriously a good 2nd there helps balance any unexpected surprises from Ealing Southall, and if turnout is very low then any By Election even Sedgefield they could win. THey shouldn’t just dismiss it
112 - No Casino, I just don’t accept that at all I’m afraid. Just because you don’t agree with my analysis, doens’t mean you have the right to be personal about it. I don’t know you and you don’t know me. A win is a win and Gordon will be pleased to hold Ealing. Ignoring what has happened in politics since the 2005 GE is daft.
Oh, and about our poll lead, 1% up on 2005 will suit me fine, thanks very much!
99 - “However, I guess the result will have more to do with local Asian politics than any clear indication of the national picture.”
Well, yes it will, Rod, but it won’t necessarily be presented like that!
Since electoral politics is pretty much a zero-sum game, it’s plainly silly to talk about the result being important for Cmareon but not for Brown, or vice versa, or indeed more vital for Ming etc. etc.
If the Tories do well, it benefits Cameron and hurts Brown and vice versa. The Lib Dem situation is more complex (since I’m sure some Lib Dems are covertly hoping for a failure) but whatever is good for them is cumulatively bad for the others and vice versa - though it is of course possible that Lib Dem success can help one of the other parties e.g. tactical voting / splitting the opposition etc.
This is shaping up to potentially be one of the seminal by-elections despite the dominance of local demographics and politics. It would do the Tories a power of good to even get close.
Radio 4 has just mentioned 5 Labour councillors in Southall defecting to the Conservatives and appearing on TV with Cameron.
114. Well, at least you answered, but come off it. Your majority is 11,000. If you look at ANY political website, before Tony Lit was selected this was a foregone conclusion and NOBODY suggested that Labour would lose either one. Labour, IMO, has no probs in Sedgefield. In Ealing, they really should hold narrowly. I’m not going to go as far as Casino and say the standard for Brown is to raise the majority, I think that is expectation management. But being fair, the standard is the same as it was for Cameron in *his* honeymoon - a comfortable hold.
The situation is a precise mirror right down to candidate selection. Keith Vaz MP must be the least popular Labour MP in the Commons today, and Tom Watson a close second. LabourHome aren’t even *mentioning* this story.
It would be miraculous for the Tories to go from 23% to a win, I think it is possible, but not more than that. A bloody good second and a bloodying of Labour I think is probable. And that will be very bad for Brown and the end of the honeymoon. It was bad for Cameron and the same rules apply.
If the Labour candidate is 70, and wins, he will be going into the record books…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_by-election_records#Oldest_by-election_victors
Or will we find out in the future, that like Khabra, he is actually older than he claims?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uk_general_election_records#Oldest_general_election_victors
If the Tories do “do” well the following excuse will be rolled out:
*Ahem*
(1) It was local politics, not any clear indication of the national picture.
(2) The Tories do well in London, not clear indication of the national picture.
(3) Piara Khabra had a large personal vote, not clear indication of the national picture.
(4) Celebrity candidate, not clear indication of the national picture.
(4) We held Sedgefield, so not clear indication of the national picture.
I accept there is some truth in all of these statements, but if Labour had more respect for its natural supporters, Gordon appealed across the divide and they hadn’t taken the voters for granted, they wouldn’t be in this position.
It will be amusing to see all the Labour Cabinet Ministers wheeled out on the BBC trying to make light of the sitution. As, of course, they must.
Wonder how many of those excuses they will actually use?
In defence of Test and Rik, it should be made clear that they did NOT “tell the truth” last night! I do not mean that they were telling lies, but, as Test said earlier, they did not say anything that might have betrayed a confidence. They merely said that things were moving their way, and that we should bet on the Conservatives. The fact that Rik put his own money down should have been the clincher.
They gave sound honest betting advice last night, because they knew that there was going to be a rapid movement in the price. Whether that move will be sustained, we will have to wait and see. Meanwhile, well done to everyone who believed them.
106 - re: the “hey man” stuff, has it ever occurred to you this immature young man was just affected? He might well be perfectly successful now.
I actually agree with you that cannabis is harmful though.
The independent not standing and backing the Tories is I am told by those clsoe to ground as significant and possibly more so in terms of votes than the labour five . This news is going to put the spotlight on the campaign which will also help the Tory challenge
116. Thanks very much.
There is some hype about on all sides this morning.
If the Tories come second to Labour that will have the same effect as the carelessness in Bromley.
And the most likely outcome with a charismatic local candidate standing for the Tories is second place. Defections or no defections.
But that will be enough to turn the Brown blip to dip.
And the Ming Fling will be over.
125 and indeed thanks for that too. I would never leak anything from my party. But I also don’t tell people to put money down on a regular basis and saying “back the Tories now” was innocuous and designed to help.
Rik got some beer money anyway!
126. Very true, i hope the person is successful but it is very disturbing to watch someone “degenerate” like that.
117. will be up soon - see 121
127 Is it too late for the Indepenent’s name to be removed from the Ballot Paper?
127: Don’t know, if JohnLoony is about he’ll know. There are normally a couple of days after close of nominations, so the deadline for withdrawal may be today.
122 - Test, thanks for being reasonable, but there is still one part of your view I don’t agree with. The Tories indeed got a hell of a shock in Bromley. Labour will undoubtedly suffer a cut majority in Ealing. They are not “like-with-like” comparisons. As has been mentionned, Governments tend to loose bye-elections (usually to LibDems on highly improbable swings, I’m afraid! Remember Dunfermline?) I have already said that the pre-Brown party would be bracing itself for another LibDem spectacular. Post-Brown I am reasonably confident of holding the seat. THIS is the difference Brown has made.
130 I am not an expert on these matters, Test, but I believe that pb.com rules dictate that Rik now has to give all his winnings to a Stray Cats Home.
127.”The independent not standing and backing the Tories”
which Independent?
Got to go but according to BBC24 bout half hour ago the five labour defectors were unhappy with the selection process and have a combined age of 140ish or 170ish - can’t remember - but implication was that they have been around for a while. Bye..
137. Replying to myself. It’s Gulbash Singh. He stood for the tories last year.
62 et al. Im not rubbishing your defection story - eventually the boy who cried wolf was right, but that it’s worth betting on the Tories to win.
Clearly five defectors helps your campaign, but it doesn’t change the actual dynamics of being in third place. I also wouldn’t overblow the effect on ‘Asian politics’ - often it’s those with least influence who jump ship.
The Tory by-election nag is still a very long odds outsider after this morning. I still wouldn’t throw my money away backing them.
134 I didn’t realise John Loony was standing, in which case, I saw him on Saturday. He was leafletting outside Macdonalds next to Shrek, who at first I thought was another of his party activists.
It’s up on the BBC Website now….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283674.stm
NB one independent supporting the Tories, and one supporting Labour!
Andrea - one of the other independents, Kuldeep Grewal, is withdrawing to back Labour. All fun and games in Ealing Southall!