Bookie refunds stakes on losing casino bets
July 13th, 2007Paddy Power, the Irish bookmakers, have decided to cough up some cash and refund money to all those customers who placed bets on where the first UK super-casino would be located.
This follows Gordon Brown response at PMQs when he sensationally scrapped plans for the project to go ahead.
This will cost the firm a packet for those who received winnings in January on Manchester won’t have to hand the money back.
Let’s hope other firms follow suit.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I don’t see why they should be refunding people
Everyone was betting on the outcome of the selection, not on the location of the physical construction.
Although it is good PR.
It is brilliant publicity PP are always doing it - but am sure they calculate what their “generosity” costs them before they do it!
Wow. Perhaps I need an account with paddy power?
I had a good winner the other day on the horses which I backed with two bookies. One deducted for 4 horses dropping out the other didn’t. My winner today saw the same thing, though I was daft enough not to back it with the more generous bookie.
By doing this Paddy Power are clearly aiming to make people want to put their money with them rather than anyone else. To be fair as I am considering opening an account it looks like an excellent policy.
This is surely one of the joys of political betting, or indeed any of the ‘novelty’ markets. The amount of money traded on them is minimal compared with the sporting events and the companies probably make a good deal more out of the publicity than the betting itself. Put another way, there’s more chance of getting it right in the first place, and there’s more chance of a windfall like this if you don’t - because they don’t have to pay out all that much.
One example: the biggest Betfair political market this year was the Labour leadership which I think ended up with over £1.8m traded over about a year. Most of the televised games at Wimbledon traded three times that amount or more in the space of at most a few days and more regularly, a few hours.
I can’t remember how much was traded on the Betfair super-casino market, but would be very surprised if it reached six figures. As the vast bulk of that was on London or Blackpool, I can’t imagine that the payout on Manchester at PP was much at all.
How safe a seat is Liverpool West Derby?
5 Punter. Labour won with almost 63% of the vote in the 05 GE !!
West Derby is probaby the safest Labour seat in the country and liable to stay that way too, despite its history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_West_Derby
5. LDs usually do well in locals (as they often do in Liverpool), but it never translated in GE results. And Liverpool West Derby also has a strong Liberal Party base (their Liverpool ward falls in that seat). IIRC At last GE it was one of the top 10 biggest Labour majorities.
7. I don’t think it’s the safest one. In 2005 the safest one was Bootle. West Derby was number the 9th safe Lab seat (I checked after posting the previous comment). After boundary changes, I don’t know which is the safest one.
In 2005 GE the safest Lab seats were: Bootle (Joe Benton), Easington (John Cummings), Liverpool Walton (Peter Kylfoyle), Sheffield Brightside (David Blunkett), Rhondda (Chris Bryant), Makerfield (Ian McCartney), Islwyn (Don Touhig), Coatbridge and co (Tom Clarke), Liverpool Derby West and Cynon Valley (Ann Clwyd)
7 Ah yes Wavertree is the Lib Dem hope. Regarding West Derby then no wonder Hilton and Twigg want it so badly. Knew there was a reason
The sitting MP is West Derby (who is old and left wing) lost the reselection trigger ballot and he now has to face an open selection, potentially against high profile names (with that majority you can guess why the seat it’s attractive.
I wonder if Bob Wareing is still planning on standing at the next GE in West Derby.
12. yes, but he lost the reselection vote. However it seems he wants to contest the open selection against other applicants (some of them labelled as voltures by Wareing)
By safest, I mean the one least likely to be lost in the foreseable future Andrea. Even in a by-election (which considering Wareings age might happen) the Labour vote would not drop too much.
OK just got permission to go to London tomorrow - Have to drop the wife and her friend in Oxford Street, but I can spend 6 hours + in Ealing!!!
Sounds like an expensive weekend.
Will report back on E & S!
15. She must think you’re off yr rocker with the weather like this…………..
14. I don’t know, Galloglas. You can be right, but I don’t want Wareing and one of the MP is other big majorities seats to die soon to test the hypothesis!
17. I’ll drink to that Andrea
17. I wonder if ousted he might do a Blair and opt for the Gottdammerung option and force a BY Election just to drop his enemies right in it……….
18. Gallaglass, I’m not sure it’s so enjoyable to drink thinking about Bob Wareing!
Punter - _ I think she thought that already - but as the alternatives were cutting the hedge or watching the cricket - both not much fun in the rain. Tramping the streets of darkest West London seems the best option!
Well Andrea I live rather close to West Derby and my thoughts were entirely on NOT walking its not-so-sunny streets delivering leaflets for 3 weeks or so
22. Gallolass, I trust you
Not all CLPs have finished the trigger ballot (I read somewhere the party told them to do it by the end of July), but he’s the only sitting MP to have lost it so far.
It’s usually difficult to lose it…the only people who seem to have lost it since 1997 are him, the Fugitive and the Venerable Helen (is there anyone else who has lost it and I forgot about?)
Hmm the venerable Helen I know but who was the Fugitive?
I see that Liverpool West Derby was a Tory seat until 1964! Admittedly the boundaries were quite a bit different.
24. Jane Griffiths from Reading East.
Shock horror: Owen Oyston at Labour fund-raising bash last night…..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,,-6778410,00.html
1 - I agree - I can’t see why they have chosen to do this but fairy nuff!
I saw lots of “Vote Rai” posters today.
There is a balance betweeen the substantial support for Tony Lit in the shops and streets, and the number of Lib Dem posters in residential houses. Thus it is still difficult to predict the result.
I reckon something like
Lab 35%
LD 30%
Con 21%
Respect 6%
Green 3%
Rai 2%
others 3%
JohnLoony - as you are a candidate, is your prediction a fair assumption or a straw in the wind? What is it based on? Do the OMRLP do any canvassing or the traditional work? Or do you do something far out like listening to the voters?
PS Naturally I always listen to every word my voters speak, but I find nationally I am an exception amongst councillors…
27: Well, money is money to the Labour party these days…
Presumably he was invited by or by friends of the noble Labour Lord Campbell-Savours.
Well we trust you to give a more balanced and unbiased view tham most posters here johnC.
So it looks like the money thats been going on the Lib Dems today isn’t just idle speculation. Still have doubts they can actually take the seat though. Hope you’ll give us another progress report on sunday night John any momentum for an upset will probably happen after the parties make their big efforts today and tommorow.
Funny how Rik W never saw any of those Lib Dem posters earlier today, could be a case of selective ‘Daltonism’ to yellow & gold maybe
29. That would be a sensationally good result for Labour, John, and pretty disastrous for the Tories, disappointing for LibDems. From my ivory tower ‘oop north I suspect it will be closer…
Not too sure it would be that bad for the Tories RodC. Yes they’ve been talking up their possible vote but in reality if they actually avoid being squezzed as JohnL is predicting then they’ll have done very well indeed.
30. Guesswork really. All I’ve done is several hours of walking up and down the main roads with my placard; I haven’t got the time or resources to do any sort of scientific sampling or canvassing or polling. I just get a general impression from the number of
(a) activists wandering about
(b) posters in houses
(c) posters in shop windows
(d) conversations with passers-by
(e) vehicles with loudspeakers driving around.
These are respectively
(a) several small gaggles of Lib Dems (but not the vast swarms that there were in Bromley), and quite a few Conservatives and Respect people;
(b) about 4 or 5 Lib Dems and 2 or 3 Labour;
(c) loads of Labour, lots of Lit, several Respect, quite a few Rai, and only a few Lib Dem;
(d) people making mostly positive comments about my policies, and quite a few people spontaneously bigging up Tony Lit;
(e) Conservative cars a few times and a Lib Dem car once.
I have been thinking that there is a discrepancy between the pattern of posters in shop windows (Labour, Respect, Conservative and Rai) and in residential houses (Lib Dem, but not in great numbers). There is also a discrepancy between teh amout of visible election activity in the Southall half of the constituency (lots) and in the Ealing Common end (virtually none).
Meanwhile, I was being interviewed by someone from the New Statesman magazine today outside Ealing Town Hall - we had been chatting for about an hour when we were interrupted by Charles Kennedy and Lord Rennard, who were busy orchestrating a gaggle of Lib Dem activists, frantically waggling their orange placards in their usual mating-ritual with the cameras.
29/32 - the claim by Mr Willis that ‘the wheels have fallen off the Lib Dem byelection bandwagon’ is neither sensible or true. John Loony (who had a crap experience in Bromley as a result of Lib Dem activism) is a good neutral pundit.
My experience of Southall is that Southall (the shops at least) are split three ways - the winner will depend on what they do in Southall AND the rest of the constituency. From what I saw in Hanwell Mr Lit is anonymous (apart from the poster in the Hanwell Conservative club).
“if they actually avoid being squeezed as JohnL is predicting then they’ll have done very well indeed.”
Oh dear, I guess if pb.c had been around circa 1981-1990, people would have been talking of Labour in similar terms….
Come on, if Cameron can’t lift the Tory share in a London seat under a Scottish PM, he’s going nowhere fast….
Well tbh I’ve never thought he was going anywhere fast
35. P.S. This time the Lib Dem gagglers asked me politely and reasonably to stay out of the way of their camera/publicity, rather than merrily shoving me out of the way like in Bromley.
Other things being equal, I would expect a higher % turnout in Ealing town centre than in Southall. The greater activity in Southall might equalise the turnout a bit, but I reckon that there are loads of silent Lib Dem voters in the eastern half who will be more than enough to outweight the apparent Tony Lit personality cult in Southall.
32. At the moment I reckon I will go back to Southall on Saturday but probably not Sunday. Apart from wanting/needing a rest, Sunday is the day of the annual Asian Mela festival in Croydon, which I don’t particularly want to miss.
21,16 Weather for Saturday should be dry (unless forecast has changed in last 12 hours)
Well if William Hill’s are still giving 5-1 tommorow on the Libs I might just be tempted to take a punt.
42. As soon as I heard of the death of Piara Khabra, I thought Lib Dem had at least 50% chance of winning. If it were not for the idiosyncratic Tony Lit bandwagon, I would be expecting a big tactical squeeze on the Conservative vote and therefore odds of c. 1/3 for the Lib dem to win. As it is, I would say 3/2 for Lib Dem to win and 2/3 for Labour.
Thanks for th einteresting neutral assessment, JohnLoony. As a matter of interest, why are you standing? I’m not against it, but why is it fun to do, given that you clearly are not expecting to win?
44. Are Labour expecting to win, Nick? If not, why are they standing?
The likes of Bill Boaks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Boaks
5 votes, Glasgow Hillhead, 1982, may have actually achieved more than scores of lobby-fodder who haunt the Palace of Varieties…..
Isn’t British Democracy great…. Let’s keep it that way….
32,36 etc - well I can tell you that in the large area I and my colleagues delivered on Thurs in Southall we saw not a single Lib Dem poster in any of the residential streets we were in - not one! We saw several Tony Lit posters and a couple of Labour ones. You may not like what I am saying but it is true!
The shops were more three-way with interesting combinations of parties’ posters.
Thursday will show who is the best judge!
I note that Conservatives remain on shorter odds to win ES than the Lib Dems and apart from a brief blip last night have been consistently so on Betfair!
44. Nick I think JohnLoony has noted that past OMRLP polices have been adopted by the major parties in the past and looks forward to many of his own being adopted too.
http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/croydonloony/bromley.html#twelve
Have a read of John’s policies on the above link. I think you’ll be rather surprised.
Best political manifesto ever? This one’s hard to beat…
“Guy Fawkes was the last man to enter Parliament with good intentions. You need another like me to carry on his good work.”
Lieutenant-Colonel A.D. “Freddie” Wintle, MC, Liberal candidate in Norwood, General Election, 1945…
3,944 votes…
47 - The DPRK has remained sturdy and steadfast against repeated imperialist aggression by external powers for many decades. Its self-confidence and strong self-defence against external threats, and steps towards self-reliance in its economy, have ensured its survival as a continuing socialist state in a world where others have been swept away by weakness and revisionism. Now, the DPRK (unlike Iran) has not been subjected to threats of attack or invasion by the USA, because it has the ability to defend itself. A large standing army of conventional soldiers, combined with an independent nuclear weapons capability, serve proudly as a deterrent against neo-imperialist invasion. It is the USA, not the DPRK, which has threatened first-use of nuclear weapons to end conventional wars. If the USA chooses to make it necessary for the DPRK to defend itself with nuclear weapons by retaliating against a nuclear attack, then the USA will be to blame for the outcome. The DPRK thus stands as a significant contributor to international peace and security, and has helped to keep at bay the imperialist sabre-rattling which is developing against Iran. Any internal deficiencies on the subject of “human rights” or material standard of living are a matter for the people to address and develop themselves, within the democratic structures of the DPRK.
http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/croydonloony/threemain2.html#two
It ought to be blackly funny seeing such a pastiche of North Korean propaganda, but really it just filled me with sadness.
“Democratic structures”? I should not think there are many opportunities to stand in by-elections there.
Morning all, new thread now open.
Liverpool, West Derby constituency was the political base of the odious Sir David Maxwell-Fyffe, later Lord Kilmuir. He had a majority of over 3,000 in 1945. The last Conservative MP for the constituency was John Victor Henry Woolam.
The Liverpool wards have been redrawn and renamed, however from 1955 the wards in West Derby were: Clubmoor, Croxteth, Dovecot and Gillmoss.
44. I do hope to win, of course; but otherwise it’s for the same reason as all the small parties, i.e. to communicate policies, to persuade people to be converted, to advance the level of political consciousness of the party and of the principles I support, such as restoring civil liberties, struggling against imperialism, withdrawing from the EU etc.
49. I don’t think there is anything “funny” about the USA threatening the DPRK with nuclear weapons, blockading it, applying sanctions, interfering with its energy policy, denying its right to self-defence, occupying South Korea with dozens of military bases, and prolonging the division of the peninsula. The DPRK and China have both explicitly stated that they will not use their nuclear weapons on a first-use basis, and only if they are attacked first.
46. The Lib Dem posters (in residential areas) I have seen were mostly in the eastern end of the constituency.
52 - you think North Korea has “democratic structures”? You think Amnesty International is “sabre-rattling” when raising human rights issues there?
Rik, 46 That does not really mean much, honest.
I can recall seeing a ward once littered with Labour posters, hardly any Conservative, and the latter won.
Posters only really boost party workers, they carry hardly any influence with voters, who make up their own minds.
If it is a close election it is going to depend on getting the vote out on Thursday, my guess is that the Lib Dems will have a more detailed and thorough canvass, and the number of workers on the ground to conduct the operation.
53. It has its own form of Juche-style democracy. There are three political parties, and discussion of policies within them. One does not need to be a communist in order to understand the concept of respecting the independence and sovereignty of nation states. “Sabre-rattling” would be the description of the USA seeking to interfere in the indigenous political system in the DPRK, which is a matter for the DPRK and not the USA.