Local Elections Round-Up
July 13th, 2007What can we tell from last night’s results….?
Camden LBC, Haverstock
LD Matt Sanders 1160 (43.4; -0.2), Lab 1000 (37.4; +3.0), Green 299 (11.2; +0.4), Con 213 (8.0; -3.2).
Majority 160. Turnout 34.1%. LD gain from Lab. Last fought 2006.
Craven DC, Cowling
Con 351 (64.3; +47.4), Ratepayer 136 (24.9; +24.9), Ind 59 (10.8; -34.3), [Ind (0.0; -38.1)].
Majority 215. Turnout 31.2%. Con gain from Ind. Last fought 2004.
Hounslow LBC, Hanworth Park
Con 1054 (41.1; -3.3), Lab 729 (28.4; +2.1), LD Simon Martin 507 (19.8; +4.2), Ind 201 (7.8; -5.9), Green 73 (2.8; +2.8).
Majority 325. Turnout 32.3%. Con hold. Last fought 2006.
Kent CC, Maidstone North East
LD Ian Chittenden 1620 (56.2; +12.5), Con 831 (28.8; -1.3), Green 187 (6.5; +2.5), Lab 164 (5.7; -12.5), UKIP 81 (2.8; -1.3).
Majority 789. Turnout 24.3%. LD hold. Last fought 2005.
Kidsgrove TC, Kidsgrove
Lab 231 (43.8), LD Gary Turner 171 (32.4), UKIP 126 (23.9).
Majority 60. Turnout 10.1%. Lab gain from Ind.
Newcastle Under Lyme BC, Westlands
Con 696 (60.9; +1.2), LD Michael Shenton 229 (20.0; +5.2), Lab 126 (11.0; -2.9), UKIP 92 (8.0; -3.5).
Majority 467. Turnout 24.8%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Rotherham MBC, Valley
Lab 781 (43.8; -1.5), BNP 348 (19.5; +2.0), Ind 308 (17.3; +17.3), Con 197 (11.0; -10.4), LD Eric Shaw 150 (8.4; -7.4).
Majority 433. Turnout 19.5%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Staffordshire CC, Keele and Westlands
Con 1067 (41.9; +7.8), LD Marion Reddish 1005 (39.5; +6.6), Lab 268 (10.5; -13.9), UKIP 204 (8.0; +4.7), [Green (0.0; -5.3)].
Majority 62. Turnout 20.4%. Con hold. Last fought 2005.
Wells City TC, Central
Ind 282 (54.2), LD Denise Boulton 238 (45.8).
Majority 44. Turnout 31.4%. Ind hold.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns on 16th July
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Election Results: Thursday 12th July 2007.
Camden LBC, Haverstock
LD Matt Sanders 1160 (43.4; -0.2), Lab 1000 (37.4; +3.0), Green 299 (11.2; +0.4), Con 213 (8.0; -3.2).
Majority 160. Turnout 34.1%. LD gain from Lab. Last fought 2006.
Craven DC, Cowling
Con 351 (64.3; +47.4), Ratepayer 136 (24.9; +24.9), Ind 59 (10.8; -34.3), [Ind (0.0; -38.1)].
Majority 215. Turnout 31.2%. Con gain from Ind. Last fought 2004.
Hounslow LBC, Hanworth Park
Con 1054 (41.1; -3.3), Lab 729 (28.4; +2.1), LD Simon Martin 507 (19.8; +4.2), Ind 201 (7.8; -5.9), Green 73 (2.8; +2.8).
Majority 325. Turnout 32.3%. Con hold. Last fought 2006.
Kent CC, Maidstone North East
LD Ian Chittenden 1620 (56.2; +12.5), Con 831 (28.8; -1.3), Green 187 (6.5; +2.5), Lab 164 (5.7; -12.5), UKIP 81 (2.8; -1.3).
Majority 789. Turnout 24.3%. LD hold. Last fought 2005.
Kidsgrove TC, Kidsgrove
Lab 231 (43.8), LD Gary Turner 171 (32.4), UKIP 126 (23.9).
Majority 60. Turnout 10.1%. Lab gain from Ind.
Newcastle Under Lyme BC, Westlands
Con 696 (60.9; +1.2), LD Michael Shenton 229 (20.0; +5.2), Lab 126 (11.0; -2.9), UKIP 92 (8.0; -3.5).
Majority 467. Turnout 24.8%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Rotherham MBC, Valley
Lab 781 (43.8; -1.5), BNP 348 (19.5; +2.0), Ind 308 (17.3; +17.3), Con 197 (11.0; -10.4), LD Eric Shaw 150 (8.4; -7.4).
Majority 433. Turnout 19.5%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Staffordshire CC, Keele and Westlands
Con 1067 (41.9; +7.8), LD Marion Reddish 1005 (39.5; +6.6), Lab 268 (10.5; -13.9), UKIP 204 (8.0; +4.7), [Green (0.0; -5.3)].
Majority 62. Turnout 20.4%. Con hold. Last fought 2005.
Wells City TC, Central
Ind 282 (54.2), LD Denise Boulton 238 (45.8).
Majority 44. Turnout 31.4%. Ind hold.
the Camden figures don’t add up, if it’s a LD gain…
Camden’s a split ward (2 Lab, 1 LD prior to last night). Depending on which figures you take you can get those percentages - and changes - above
To veer very slightly offtopic, I believe we were talking about cartoons, and why they are so much better than most ordinary movies.
Yes, Triplets of Belleville - quite right - very good. And I forgot to mention Finding Nemo, Happy Feet, the 2nd film by the South Park guys, and Who Framed Roger Rabbit - the movie which probably kicked off this animation renaissance. I remember literally gurgling with delight at Roger Rabbit.
Maybe it’s because screenwriters can be more imaginative in animated films; maybe it’s because producers and directors of cartoons don’t have to worry about actors’ egos, so the creative process is purer.
Whatever. But it is definitely true: the most fun I’ve had watching films in the last 5 years has come from animation.
And with that exuberantly OT remark, I’m off to bed. Ciao.
Very strange results, impossible to read anything from them, perhaps it reflects the very confused political picture at the moment.
5 - To a Labour voter they mean “we’re going to win the next election”
To a Tory they mean “we’re going to win the next election”
To a LibDem they mean “we’re going to win a load more seats at the next election”
Sad to see the Maidstone North East result. I used to know Margaret Featherstone whose seat it was, and I hadn’t realised she’d died.
6. All points to hung parliament and WLQ will explode. I just wonder how many seats to SNP will win at the nest GE
8. You’ve probably already discussed this at length, but my thinking is the SNP are unlikely to win more than about 8 or 9 Westminster seats in the next election, if that. Especially if the elction is close (which it’s pretty well bound to be).
I agree. The SNP may have trouble running Holyrood and if they do, they’ll do rather badly next Westminster election.
9. Even if they do well at Holyrood this could perversely hit them at Westminster. They will no longer have the allure of a Protest vote, and will be vulnerable to the charge of why vote in a party at Westminster that does not want to be there. There could potentially be several “Ceredigions”, interestingly of course a major beneficiary in that scenario would be the Tories
Re 6, Paul, well read and absolutely right
11. ‘a major beneficiary in that scenario would be the Tories’
I’ll believe it when I see it. We’ve been waiting for the Great Tory Revival in Scotland for some time now. I would have said they’ll be lucky to add even 1 Westminster seat next election.
I’m more interested to see how the Lib Dems will do- I can imagine a very broad range of possible results for them.
Well the biggest challenger in most SNP Westminstr seas being rural are the Conservatives. I did not predict it, I only said in that scenario. The Lib Dem opportunities lie far mre against Labour I think
14. ” The Lib Dem opportunities lie far mre against Labour I think !”
yes, 2005 was a good for LD making them the challengers in quite a number of seats. In particular there’re a couple of Edinburgh seats where they were near misses in 2005 for them and so they can do it next time.
On ther other hand SNP didn’t do very well in 2005 GE, so there aren’t many Lab/SNP marginals. Certainly Ochil & SP (1.5% maj). Then the next Lab/SNP marginal should be Dundee West which is a 14.6% majority
13. The LibDems have only advanced glacially in Scotland from 1983 (8 seats) to 2005 (11 seats), although their Scottish share of the vote has fluctuated wildly from a high of 25% in 1983 to a low of 13% in 1992 and 1997….
Their targets next time are Edinburgh S, Aberdeen S, Edinburgh N & Leith, with Glasgow N and Edinburgh E as very long shots….
Overall the results show that local circumstances have quite an impact on local by-election results.
The Camden gain is actually a better result than those figures suggest for the LDs as the top Lib Dem in that ward is very well established - one of the reasons it was split in the first place. The Maidstone result is very good for them.
Locals show some poor Labour results.
As an indicator for by elections would expect a drop in Labour support of around 15%.
RogerH
13
‘I’m more interested to see how the Lib Dems will do- I can imagine a very broad range of possible results for them.’
Don’t hold your breath on the evidence of the past two years!
Maidstone result is extremelly good for the Lib Dems although I think a number of Tory helpers (there were plenty to be seen in the first few weeks) may have been dragged to Ealing.
Interesting series of ramping e-mails in my inbox today. One from Rennard, lets not lose Ealing by 633 votes, one from the Policy Unit “Tories abmit they cannot win” plus regional and other local party e-mails (and mailshots). Happy to have done my ’shift’ yesterday and back again tomorrow. Genuinely though I have no gut feeling which way the election will go…
The vacancy on Elmbridge BC, Surrey will be contested in a by-election August 9th, with 5 candidates including UKIP and the local Walton Society residents group.
Walton, Ambleside is a small mixed social and commuter housing residential ward, generally with a low turnout 20-30% (only 57% in GE). C defending a seat gained by 26 votes in 2006 (resignation).
The ward swung strongly to C in 2007 locals following defection of the remaining Residents councillor to C.
Labour won here in the 80s and 90s but after a Residents phase during their control of the Council it now appears to have reverted to C - 430-280 over Residents in May against 305-279 in 2006.