Should the UK have weekend elections?
July 13th, 2007Or should we stick with the traditional Thursday?
As part of the package of constitutional changes unveiled by Gordon Brown recently, possibly moving the day of general elections received a cameo appearance. It has been the convention for decades now that UK elections are held on Thursdays, although this is not laid down by statute.
Election days vary widely around the world, with Canada on Monday, the USA and Israel on Tuesday, the Netherlands on Wednesday and Australia on Saturday. Ireland seems to be the only other country that opts for a Thursday, Fridays seem non-existent at present, while the most common polling day is Sunday, which is standard throughout most of Europe and Latin America. European election nights are a much more civilised affair, with even big countries such as France, Germany, and Spain pretty much all complete by midnight-1am, although undoubtedly this is also due to the fact that votes are counted at a much more local level than in the UK.
So, should the UK move to a weekend? Would it actually make much difference in terms of turnout - mightn’t significant numbers of voters be away? Wouldn’t a much more significant reform be introducing four or five-year fixed term parliaments and removing the choice of election date from a sitting PM?
Meanwhile:
the US House has voted for a troop pullout from Iraq, Douglas Alexander may have signalled a shift in UK foreign policy, and the Daily Telegraph reports that Boris Johnson will run for London Mayor.
Finally, on the Betfair market for Southall, Labour currently trades at 1.68, the Lib Dems at 3.55 and the Conservatives at 4.2.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns on 16th July
Paul Maggs runs The Election Game - click on the logo to email for more information.
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I’m not really convinced of the need to change something that has been working for decades - but I guess that is the one of the defining characteristics of a Conservative!
I mean - exactly how many people who would otherwise vote and increase turnout, are prevented from finding the time to go to the pools, because they only have 15 hours in which to do so on a working day?
polls not pools!
If people have to make a special effort to go to the polling station, rather than calling in on their way to work, nobody will vote at all!
Boris will run? News of the day afaic.
A quick comment on the betting first (well, this is pbc). When was the last time that a third favourite in a by-election was as short as 3.2/1? It’s rare enough to get three-way consituencies at general elections, but the added pressures of a by-election tend to concentrate support on the favourite and closest challenger. It’s very unusual for the third (or lower) not to get squeezed. If that’s not happening, it ought to favour Labour but 4/6 is pretty stingy given who the candidates are and the campaign reports posted on here. And there’s still time for plenty to happen before Thursday.
Which leads me nicely on to the main topic. I like Thursday elections. They might be quirky in international terms but then so’s much of our consitutional settlement and that doesn’t mean it doesn’t work - and they’re no more quirky than any other weekday.
I’m not sure that the turnout would be increased by holding elections on a Sunday which is a very leisurely day traditionally, and certainly not on a Saturday with all the other distractions. If Brown wants to improve the electoral system, he could start by tidying up the postal vote mess which is a recipe for fraud. Asking people to vote in person (other than those with a genuine reason), is a small enough thing and gives a sense of both involvement and certainty that voting by post (or worse, electronically), doesn’t. These things matter in maintaining confidence in the system.
Yes. Both days to overcome any religious objection.
I think it’ll boost it but slightly. The only thing that would really sharply boost it it, is a close and hard fought election, and that only DC and GB can provide us with
Not so sure about that, Punter. The Tories dropped to 4th place in Camden yesterday.
6 kjh. Indeed.
Both days. Sat …7am - 10pm. Sun 7am -7pm.
Saturday boxes to count centre to begin secure sorting and counting from 5pm Sunday.
Sunderland South declares at 7.49pm
First Torbay recount about 8.38pm.
First Tory gain in Crawley at 8.54pm
First Lib Dem gain in Watford at 9.02pm
First Broxtowe recount at 9.26pm
Second Torbay recount at 9.57pm
9 Except Jack that weekends would mean overtime for council staff, people wouldn’t want to work weekends and so many councils would put off counts till Monday morning
Sunderland South declares at 9.49am
First Torbay recount about 10.38am.
etc.
11 But they count European elections on a Sunday evening, don’t they?
10 Ted. Sod the staff. They’re bloody lucky to have a feather bedded job in the first place. Write the requirement into their contracts !!
They are there to serve the public not the other way round !!
If you want to increase turnout lets get PR introduced. I would like my vote to accuatly count at some point!!
12- In France the counting is done by volunteers (around 300.000!).
And the staff required for all other voting operations is also volunteer because they get some overtime pay.
Other results from last night :-
Craven DC Cowling Con gain from Ind Con 351 Ratepayer 136 Ind 59
2004 result Ind 374 Ind 316 Con 140
Kent CC Maidstone NE LIbDem hold LibDem 1620 Con 831 Green 187 Lab 164 UKIP 81
2005 result LibDem 3249 Con 2237 Lab 1350 UKIP 303 Green 298
Rotherham MBC Valley Lab hold Lab 781 BNP 348 Ind 301 Con 197 LibDem 150 - May result Lab 1271 Con 603 BNP 491 LibDem 445
The 2 Staffs byelections are counting this morning
If Boris does run at what odds ? 4/1 with Ken @ 1/6 ?
I agree with 6,7 and 9, and don’t care if we have to pay a few quid extra to counting staff - we’re talking about a one-off every four or so years in the most important element of parliamentary democracy. It needs to be on both days to avoid religious issues. An alternative is Sunday all day + Monday up to lunchtime, quite common on the Continent - this enables people who go away for the weekend to vote before work. But as Tressage says it’s a close race that really boosts turnout.
Startling Maidstone figures - the electorate seems to have gone on strike, with everyone at least halved! Swinfg to LD as they had the least awful drop.
Third Torbay recount 11.15pm …..
18 Nick - Don’t forget the 2005 poll was on election day so a much lowe turnout is expected .
Robin - It’s not working!!!! How can you be so blind - 60% turnout.
What is so special about Thursday - it is just a day in the week? If we want true tradition we should spread it over three weeks and give candidates the chance to get elected towards the end of that period, having been beaten in an election at the start of the period.Churchill once got in that way.
Richard A - wrong. How many people have the coincidence of the polling station - usually a school in the middle of an estate - being on the way to work. Heaviest polling is tea time and after.
As a use of time voting is quite poor value (and all the research says it is time as much as money that people feel short of). There are so many counter attractions, competing for time
A raft of stuff is needed to give voters the maximum opportunity to cast their vote if they want to, and to remove the most obvious barriers - like being at work. 56% of houses have no person at home during the day - people are at work. The window to vote is therefore a couple of hours, allowing for commuting etc.
I am not so sure what the religeous objection is - Europe has its vote on Sunday. If its a problem, extend to Saturday
18 Nick P. You agreeing to the Broxtowe recount Nick ??
The unimaginative siting of ballot boxes is the first thing to tackle. One of the local villages has its polling station in the first school, up a hill on the outskirts of the village, difficult for the elderly. Lets start looking at the possibility of siting in post offices, supermarkets etc.
16 Interesting! Rotherham, obviously not an area where the Cons. can expect much of a vote, but to be pushed into fourth place, BNP result very interesting, whose votes are they picking up?
13. Spot on. Any voter who does not support the winning candidate in any given constituency may as well have stayed at home for all the difference their vote has on the final composition of the HOC. A further consideration is that voters will actually vote, as their first preference, for the candidate they want rather than voting tactically to keep a candidate out. It’s a no-brainer.
Not much Brown bounce in Maidstone - Lab vote down 78 %. More union jacks required ?
Personally speaking I would like to see a few pilots run for Saturday and Sunday elections to see how they do work out.
The thing about a working day is that some people start early, commute and arrive home both late and tired.
1.Robin Wiggs- of course as a good conservative you want to keep things as they are. Why have a party Conservative party if not to conserve?
Isn’t it becoming increasingly clear that the name Conservative Party is simply stupid? Of course when marxist revolution was afoot, conservatism meant something, but now how does Conservativism relate to a modern day world that is thriving on change. Of course elections should be weekends, and we should encourage internet and text voting systems. Embrace modernity.
Robin- you are a senior executive in the health service- the majority of your job is about managing change. The people in your jobs who say we need to keep things as they are, we need to conserve, to consolidate wouldn’t last 5 mns.
Don’t believe changing the polling day will make any difference to turnout,potential voters are switched off by the behaviour of MP’s,the recent £ 8 million extra so called communication allowance they just voted for themselves is yet another example of how out of touch with reality they are.
27. The Con party set up purely to fund David Cameron’s bear baiting hobby - in your mind anyway.
26-benedict- as soon as someone says pilot something I want to throttle them slowly- we have more bloody pilots in the health service than the RAF!!
Why can’t polling days be made bank holidays, thus removing (or at least reducing) opportunity costs of voting?
The only reason why this change of polling day is being “mooted” by the government is the fact that it is benificial for Labour. They might be able to get more people out to help them get the vote out? Or badger people into voting.
I do think that these gimmicks that keep being deployed by Labour miss the point. PR systems and various hybrids etc are used in European elections, Scottish parliamentry elections, Scottish local elections and the welsh assembly elections not to mention the Northern Ireland assembly.
This leads me to the conclusion that it is not the voting system but the product that is defective!!!! Politicians have to stop farting in the room and wondering where the smell is coming from - It is them!!!
While the Republic of Ireland usually holds elections on Thursday I do remember voting on a Friday once (maybe on the Good Friday Agreement). The election day was a source of minor controversy this year with the opposition parties calling for a weekend election to boost turnout (though they were mostly thinking of 3rd level students living away from home and unable to make it back to the home constituency where most were registered). Anyway I don’t see any reason to stick with Thursday come-what-may, if it makes sense to change it - change it.
o/t Interesting piece on Paul Linford’s blog that the unelected regional assemblies are going to be scrapped,not a minute too soon in my opinion.
Seems that virtually everything Prescott was involved with over the past 10 years has or will be dumped,I wonder what the cost has been?
29-Jamie- thanks for the link yesterday about game shooting. Must be great fun shooting animals for pleasure. How have I missed out?
BTW Cameron has particpated in numerous hunts with hounds, foxes, stags, aswell as taking pleasure in shooting stags with high velocity rifles, and the obligatory game shoots. Can do it all year now. The guy just loves killing animals. He looks great in barber, cap and wellies to boot. Pity we cannot see the Bullingdon Dave pictures anymore- he looked so fetching in his tailored tails.
Re 30, Tyson, “as soon as someone says pilot something I want to throttle them slowly- we have more bloody pilots in the health service than the RAF!!”
Well, that is the result of an incompetent government always looking to be seen to be doing something. If it bothers you that much, vote Conservative.
The interseting thing i find is Brown wanting to change all the wrong things: Stopping English Children learning about Churchill, enabling Brown to become some sort of Cromwell figure by being “Lord Protector” and disestablishing parliamentry tradation. The only difference is Cromwell believed in Democracy and Brown does not. If Brown wants the publics involvement call an election! Instead we get B*llocks in the press about elections next year, Perhaps? I very much doubt it. It is going to be 2009 due to Labour party finances, the unifying affect of costs from European, General and local elections.
31 Julian H- turnout on bank holdidays would go down to about 2% as the whole country is either caught up in traffic jams on the M25, or being slowly processed through terrorist checkpoints at the airports. When would be the time to vote?
BBC Election 2009 :
Truro 1223am …. I Fanny Mingeworthy being the acting Returning Officer for the parliamentary division of Torbay do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the election is as follows :
Bent .. David Peter - Gay Seaside Palm Tree Alliance …….241
Cross .. Mary Verity - UKIP (Free Farage From France) ….1,021
Francis .. James William - The Labour Party Candidate ….6,932
Sanders .. Adrian - Liberal Democrat Party Candidate ….20,675
Willis .. Richard - The SDP Equine Lovers Party Alliance …351
Wood .. Marcus - The Conservative Party Candidate …….20,67
Quickly of to Broxtowe for the recount result ..
Re 35, Tyson, “The guy just loves killing animals.”
Do you eat meat?
For me, Thursday is the optimum day to hold elections *provided* they actually start counting at the close of polls, rather than waiting until Friday or even later.
It means you can take two days off work, spend all Thursday working for the party getting the vote out, stay up late celebrating and watching the results coming in (the 2005 GE party I attended went on until about 7 AM IIRC). Then on Friday you can sleep in, check the late the late results, mentally familiarise yourself with the make up of the new government or council over the weekend, then go back to work on Monday.
Perfect.
I *love* Election days and nights. Be nice to have them more often really…
PA reports:
Labour’s struggling campaign in west London’s Ealing Southall by-election has received a boost from a council contest in next-door Feltham and Heston constituency.
Tories defended a seat at Hounslow Borough’s Hanworth Park ward which they gained last year.
But the swing back to Labour was 2.8%.
If this movement is repeated next week, the party will hold Southall with a majority more than halved by Tories.
Liberal Democrat Matt Sanders gained at Haverstock, Camden London Borough, caused by the resignation of Labour’s former council leader Roy Shaw.
Tory Jan Ackroyd took the former independent Cowling seat at Craven District, North Yorkshire.
Counting is still under way in two contests at Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough and Staffordshire. Results are expected early in the afternoon.
RESULTS: Camden London Borough - Haverstock: Lib Dem 1160, Lab 1000, Green 299, C 213. (May 2006 - Three seats Lib Dem 1417, Lab 1118, 1106, Lib Dem 1085, 1058, Lab 1034, C 362, 338, 337). Lib Dem gain from Lab. Swing 1.2% Lab to Lib Dem.
Craven District - Cowling : C 351, Ratepayers Action Group 136, Ind 59. (June 2004 - Ind 345, C 140). C gain from Ind.
Hounslow London Borough - Hanworth Park: C 1054, Lab 729, Lib Dem 507, Ind Alliance 201, Green 73 . (May 2006 - Three seats C 1418, 1385, 1374, Lab 840, 804, 795, Lib Dem 498, Ind Alliance 440). C hold. Swing 2.8% C to Lab.
Kent County - Maidstone North East: Lib Dem 1620, C 831, Green 187, Lab 164, Ukip 81 . (May 2005 - Lib Dem 3249, C 2237, Lab 1350, Ukip 303, Green 298). Lib Dem hold. Swing 6.9% C to Lib Dem.
Rotherham Borough - Valley: Lab 781, BNP 348, Ind 308, C 197, Lib Dem 150. (May 2007 - Lab 1271, C 603, BNP 491, Lib Dem 445). Lab hold. Swing 1.7% Lab to BNP.
35.
Any evidence ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/03/11/nstalk11.xml
Shooting a deer with a high powered rifle (not not chasing it down with hounds - but stalking) - is no more cruel than stunning a sheep and cutting its throat as performed in abbatoirs every day. Are you saying you’d like to ban all hunting, shooting and fishing ? Are you a vegan ? Do you really hate all country dwellers ?
I don’t mind your spin and froth - its the lies that really hurt.
35.Pity we cannot see the Bullingdon Dave pictures anymore- he looked so fetching in his tailored tails.
Shame we will have to do with Harriet Harmenr’s picures and Hilary Benn’s!!!
:lol: 
Why keep mentioning Cameron’s background etc - Do you have a problem with it? Should he be banned from seeking to lead his country because he went to public school?
27 Tyson “Isn’t it becoming increasingly clear that the name Conservative Party is simply stupid? Of course when marxist revolution was afoot, conservatism meant something, but now how does Conservativism relate to a modern day world that is thriving on change.”
Not all change is progress. True Conservatives are not against change. They are very much in favour of ‘improvement’, but believe that the burden of proof that a suggested change will actually improve things lies with the proposer.
As you intimate yourself from your experiences in the Health Service (and others in Education), the constant “change-change-change” philosophy can sometimes be extremely counter-productive. Chaotic even.
Truro …
… Sorry meant Torbay !!
36- benedict- I am looking forward to taking that tenner off you next week. Can you make sure it is a crisp new one- I don’t want any scraggly notes where you do not know where they have been.
Not being a theologian, what religious issues are there with Saturday.
Ten Easily solved. For that one week, the staff are given Thurs/Fri off as compensation for the weekend Work
Local elections round-up - Sean Fear is away so there won’t be an article this afternoon. However, if someone can provide a link to a full list (not just those that are good / bad for a particular party!) of yesterday’s by-elections, I will try to do a results thread later on.
Nick at 18, I know Italy does the Sunday/Monday voting, Julian at 31, some US states I think have election day as a holiday, eg Michigan. John Wheatley at 21, agree re religion, some quite conservative Catholic parts of Europe vote on Sundays eg Bavaria, Austria, Switzerland, and it doesn’t seem to be a problem there - are for example the Western Isles really more religious and observant than areas on the continent?
Double Carpet
35. Given that in the last few weeks the Tories have suggested backtracking on 28 days and launched numerous ridiculous moralising proposals over alcohol and marriage, Dave’s toff-ness isn’t really the area to be attacking them is it? He can doss around in a barber jacket as much as he likes if it makes him happy. Each to their own.
42 - Richard H - thanks for list - will use for results thread later.
Why are the odds on Betfair so difference to William Hill:
Bet Fair (as above):
Lab 1.68
LD 3.55
Con 4.2
William Hill
Lab 1.61
Con 2.87
LD 6.00
Big difference in LD & Con odds
52. Probably just their bets received - perhaps LD supporters prefer betfair and Cons prefer Will Hills ?
Jamie- Cameron has been on hunts with hounds, numerous times. The guy likes shooting animals- listed it as his favourire sport once. But there again that is his upbringing. Gordo loves footie, Cameron loves killing animals.
52 Mike S. There’s very little liquidity in the market. Additionally Hill’s may take a position not entirely dictated by their liabilties whereas the exchange simply operates on volume and demand.
There’s probably some arb on the Lib Dems if you watch the market closely. Much will depend on how much the conventional bookies allow you.
54. Nice dodging the vegan question - enjoy your bacon roll - I’m sure the pig died of old age.
Ah yes - Gordo and his footie - his favourite goal being Gazza’s versus Scotland in Euro 96 - Lol ! He probably watches a repeat of it every morning while listening to the Artic Monkeys.
No Comment !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jack W is not amused and 104.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6897023.stm
52 Those are Ealing Southall odds I take it. What odds on Sedgefield then
54: I hope you’re a vegetarian Tyson. If you are then I don’t have any problems with your views on blood sports. If not, isn’t it a bit hypocritical criticizing a person for killing animals when you’re prepared to let others to the same for your own benefit?
37 Martin Day Ollie Cromwell certainly did not believe in democracy. He bleived in his squire oligarchy in Parliament, and relied on it, until it turned against him. Then he did the remarkably modern thing of having a military coup and turning himself into the Lord Protector with dictatorial powers backed by a specially trained army and a rubber stamp ‘parliament’.
He banned mince pies, maypoles, dancing and any discourse that he thought ‘injurous’.
A remarkably modern authoritarian.
And this cartoon should give you fair warning.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/graphics/2007/07/13/ixd13big.gif
58 Punter. Sedgefield betfair market here :
http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=20477184&ex=1
60. So Sorry he believed in democracy until he got power, where as Brown has never believed in it! He just wanted to be PM, It amases me from the limited cutting of AC’s diaries how much of a tw*t Brown is.Blair after won 1997 and 2001 and Brown still thought Blair should go so he could have his turn.
54. I like killing animals too. There is nothing wrong with it. BANG BANG > dinner
PS …. A reminder for new punters .. if using the exchanges use the link on the right as Mike gets a small commission for the referal that helps to defray this sites costs.
54
Tyson,why doesn’t your rant include fishing?
Hard to think of anything crueller than having a live fish dangling around on a sharp metal hook that has just been inserted through its mouth.
I suppose too many Labour supporters enjoy fishing to enable you to be consistent and include it on your hate list?
54
Tyson,why doesn’t your rant include fishing?
Hard to think of anything crueller than having a live fish dangling around on a sharp metal hook that has just been inserted through its mouth.
I suppose too many Labour supporters enjoy fishing to enable you to be consistent and include it on your hate list?
61. Thanks Bookies gave me 20/1 on the Lib Dems so come on Lord Rennard!
Martin Day He never believed in democracy.
if you had suggested his servants should have a vote for an MP he would have had a fit. That was the trouble with the Levellers. They actually thought everyone was equal (well, more or less).
Because of this ingrained stratification the Protectorate was no less authoritarian than the monarchy it replaced, and far more so than the one that succeeded it.
It took another 250 or more years to get universal sufferage - for men that is. Women had to wait a little longer.
37
Gosh Cromwell believed in democracy did he Martin, obviously history was your subject, this is what Cromwell believed in.
Calvin defines predestination as “God’s eternal decree, by which he compacted with himself what he willed to become of each [person]. For . . . eternal life is foreordained for some, eternal damnation for others.” So predestination is an act of God’s will through which God elects or chooses those whom God calls to faith and thus to eternal life, and through which God chooses those who will not receive faith. Other theologians have seen in predestination only a positive calling to eternal life. Still others have seen it as God’s foreknowledge of who would choose faith.
You was either in the elect or you was damned, don’t think democracy had much to do with it. You couldn’t vote yourself into the elect or out of the damned.
I’d prefer Saturday & Sunday finishing at 7pm, I don’t think it would change turnout but I’d get more sleep.
Re Animals; human beings kill them, that’s how we evolved and you try and change human nature at your peril.
48. Atheist myself so no personal objections to either day, but suggested it to prevent objections. Somehow think Saturday is more important than Sunday to some non Christian religions
Martin Day You have triggered the old historian in me I am afraid. And historians are never pedantic, as you know.
Boris to run ?
http://www.boris-johnson.com/archives/2007/07/boris_confirmed_as_london_mayo.php
Cromwell - it was the 1640’s guys. He was a middle calss squire, and thought like one.
At that time the key “democratic battlground” was not the vote but religious toleration. It was Charles 1’s perceived catholicisation of the protestant church that really wound people up
In that arguement Cromwell was on the side of the angels, although as with 95% of others he did not extend toleration to catholics
He was a reluctant authoritarian grappling with a unique situation which he failed to solve in his life time. He initially handed power over to the Rump, but when they messed up he tried a parliament of selected “good people”, then he tried the Major Generals (very unpopular), and then he took power himself in 1657. But he specifically rejected the crown.
The settlement in 1689, much loved by Conservatives, would have been quite acceptable to the Parliamentarians any time up until 1648
We all like killing animals, it’s called the hunting instinct. That’s why it’s fun to go shootin’ and fishin’. That’s one of the reasons we like violent computer games and indeed football: sublimated hunting instincts. Read Desmond Morris.
Given that the world is not about to go vegetarian, those who oppose hunting - but aren’t themselves totally vegetarian - are the purest puritanical hypocrites. They still want their bacon sarnies, they just don’t want anyone else to have fun making them.
But that’s lefties for you, joyless hypocrites. Ugh.
68. Yes I believe in one notorious incident, after the Putney debates where alarming ideas of one man one vote without proprty qualifications were aired by junior officers, he embarked on a bloody purge of the army, with several executions and only the previous friendship of Cromwell with their leader Col Lilburn seeing him imprisoned rather than being shot as well
74 John W. You mean the 1688/89 coup much loved by the Whigs.
73. I think that is a big mistake. I like Boris, but he is prone to ‘foot in mouth’, which funnily enough actually makes him liked by the public because of the sort of character he is. However under the exposure on a mayoral campaign I can see lots of cockups and history being dragged out by his opponents and the press to make it a real mess. I could be spectacularly wrong.
76 - Punter (here we go again) - evidence.
However Cromwell was the Macavity of his day (sounds familiar)- curiously absent at crucial times such as Pride’s Purge - he let Ireton take the rap - when they expelled those that would not execute the King.
The Levellers did not believe in democracy either. They wanted votes for property owners,they were the lower middle class townsfolk by and large.
78. I agree - its either going to go spectacularly right or horribly wrong… its certainly not going to be boring tho
77 A King who had a mental breakdown and abandoned his own numerically superior army on Salisbury plain to run away was clearly not suited to leadership Jack W………
76
Cromwell’s one concern, was the preservation of the elect, i.e. those that God had smiled upon, if you had property etc. it was because God had willed it.Cromwell’s hatred of the monarchy was its secret papist leanings ,the pope being the anti-christ. By executing Charles the First, Cromwell believed he was striking a blow against the anti-Christ, once the anti-Christ was destroyed, ‘the Lamb of God would once more walk upon the earth’ To Cromwell the Putney lectures were an attempt by the un-elect to take over the earth, that would never do!
77 JackW No I don’t. Don’t you remember John Stokes (tory mp of the 80’s) always waxing lyrical on the Glorious Revolution. 1689 was a cponservative revolution - maybe I should have not put a capital “C”.
The people that lost out in 1689 was your lot - the Jacobite / Tories….
78. I’ve changed my mind on this. I too hope Boris stands just for the fun of it. I think he’ll lose but he probably has the best chance, however slender, of unseating Ken out of any of the suggested Tories. He might just win through sheer Bozza-esque chutzpah.
Moreover I don’t think he’s giving up much of a ministerial career. He’s too gaffe prone, punchy and controversial to ascend the greasy pole, Cameron wouldn’t risk it. For some reason being gaffe-prone, however, punchy and controversial is a positive advantage when it comes to being a big city mayor - look at New York. And even if he fail he’ll still be an MP for a very agreeable town, and a fine journo.
Go for it Boris. Brighen the political scene.
79. This sounds pretty democratic to me in prot sort of way:
“At this meeting Leveller Colonel Thomas Rainborough argued the case for universal suffrage as the only way of ensuring the consent of the governed:
I think the poorest he that is in England hath a life to live as the greatest he; and therefore truly, sir, I think it’s clear that every man that is to live under a government ought first by his own consent to put himself under that government.”
78 kjh. Boris off to a false non start ??
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/londonmayor/2007/07/boris-confirms-.html
…………..
81/83 Punter/John W. Be gone you wrethched latter day Whigs !!
83 John Stokes!! O Ye Gods! just by mentioning the name, you have just caused me to have a series of very unpleasant flashbacks…..
Jamie/Sean: You’ve convinced me. Probably no other Tories stands a chance (although I do like Norris) and it will really be great fun.
Aah Rainsborough (not english by the way - I beieve his name was an anglicisation).I knew he’d come up.
I think the broad point is that at that time there were very few, very few indeed, who thought democracy in the modern sense what what was required.
Secondly, and rather counter intuitively, the % of the population with the vote in the 1640’s and so on was much higher than in 1832, when the vote was extended for the first time
86. Excellent. I think this will be par for the course.
85. My understanding of the Levellers was that some of the more “extreme” amongst them did, indeed, want universal suffrage - even male and female! Related questions were aired at the Putney Debates. Maybe for the first time in human history.
Paul Johnson’s The Offshore Islanders is good on this. So is Diane Purkiss’s brilliant book on ‘the people’s civil war’.
In response to Benedict, Jamie etc. “Do you eat meat?” - irrelevant. Try “do you enjoy killing?” (dubious but not illegal).
For the record, yes I am vegan, but that is my choice. I don’t have a problem with other people eating meat or slaughtering their own livestock etc. That’s rather different from actively enjoying the process and turning it into a sport. And while I’m at it don’t bandy about the the human nature argument either - there are a whole lot of things humans used to do which we now find utterly unacceptable and which we seem to manage without despite allegedly being built into our genetic makeup.
On the other hand there are a lots of other things I’d rather get worked up about apart from so on that note I’ll shut up and trundle off.
Ben
fyi at Burford, near where I live, the levellers were imprisoned ina church for several days. At least one carved his name on the font, which you can see today.
Rather like Tolpuddle this home of radicalism is now deepest blue
I thought the Levelers’ main centre was St George’s hill in Weybridge - another place not noted for its radicalism.
Paul Routledge in The Mirror suggests that Labour main problem is Sedgefield can be apathy and that if turnout is low (low 30s compared to 78% in 2005), LDs can make it
Discussing seventeenth century politics is all very well, but did the cavaliers bet on the results (obviously the Roundheads wouldn’t)?
And none of us have first-hand knowledge of what it was like to live through those times - except maybe JackW!
96 Disraeli, do you, or does anyone else, know of any magnificently large (foolish?) political bets that were placed in days of yore? Any Victorian Bucks and Mashers betting the famiily estate on the outcome of the West Middlesex or Co. Durham Outer by elections in 1857 or whenever?
93. Are you referring to this: “An attempted mutiny by radical regiments in Berkshire was crushed at Burford church, and three Leveller soldiers - Corporals Church and Perkins and Cornet Thompson - shot by Cromwell’s men. John Lilburne was tried for high treason, convinced the jury of his innocence and was acquitted - only to be re-tried by Parliament a year later, convicted and sent into lifelong exile in the Netherlands.”
95 I have them at 20/1 so I bloody hope so!
Burford - strictly it is where Cromwell’s troops caught up with them. But like Tolpuddle it is a place of pilgrimage for Lefties.
St George’s Hill was the Diggers, not the Levellers (arcane detail I know)
But enough of this - did they execute the King on a Thursday or a Sunday?
92. It’s not the killing as such that people enjoy in fishing, shooting, etc - it’s the hunting. The thrill of the chase. The pursuit. La chasse. If people liked the actual killing you’d see fishermen jumping up and down on the heads of perch, with gleefull cackles.
Get over it. It’s an instinct. Given that animals are gonna die anyway because we (nearly) all like meat, you might as well let people enjoy the hunting of them. Same goes for culling vermin like foxes.
Would you ban deer stalking when deer need to be culled? Perhaps the shooters should have forks stuck in their thighs as they stalk the beast, to make sure they are in pain and to prevent any possibility of their enjoying the process. Maybe we could engineer hunting robots to do it for us, in case someone somewhere gets an ounce of pleasure from it.
Cromwell liked hunting.
92 - “For the record, yes I am vegan, but that is my choice. I don’t have a problem with other people eating meat or slaughtering their own livestock etc. That’s rather different from actively enjoying the process and turning it into a sport.”
I don’t have children, that is my choice. I don’t have a problem with other people procreating. That’s rather different from actively enjoying the process and doing it just for fun.
(I know, an old tactic but…)
You can’t change human nature, some may try and deny our essentially animalistic psycbe but we are, and will always be, an animal who got lucky.
[96] Well, Jack’s not quite that old, Dizzy (although no one expects anyone with that name to be any good at sums - as Lord Derby told him when he first became Chancellor, “they give you the figures” - they gave him the wrong ones, as it turned out).
By my reckoning Jack would first have voted in 1923, the election that first returned a Labour government - I suspect our Jack was a right Bolshie youth
92. Judging people’s enjoyment of activities is rather a dubious thing to do both morally and politically. Some people enjoy riding around the countryside chasing a fox. Others enjoy extremely violent sex. Others enjoy eating lamb. Others enjoy frantically following political elections whilst staring at a computer screen.
This is not about an individuals’ enjoyment / motivations, it’s about the consequence of actions. Eating battery-farm eggs is likely to be causing more harm to animals than shooting a pigeon.
17. Jamie, Hills were offering 8/1 on Boris being Mayor previously but they never put it online afaik and won’t take bets on the phone now its looking more certain he may run, though they said they may put a new price up later today.
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=8344
Ladbrokes also appear to have pulled the 5/2 they were offering on him being the conservative mayoral candidate.
Jack W Well spotted. My suspicion is that Boris hasn’t squared his constituency yet and was a little embarrassed by the Telegraph story. However, I expect him to put his hat in the ring and having done so to get the nomination.
On topic I wouldn’t mind voting across a weekend and I do think it would put up turnout. As for postal voting unless much more stringent safeguards are put in place the case for restrictions is overwhelming. Even then there will be concerns about abuses in some inner city areas with pressure being put on members of some of the ethnic minorities to vote in particular ways. On the face of it the experiment to allow postal voting on demand has failed the democratic test.
Finally on the Ealing Southall by election everyone is flying blind to some extent so following every twitch in the Betfair market to see whether it offers us clues is a fool’s game. It does look like a genuine three horse race with Labour favourites and the Tories second closely followed by the LDs but no one should be surprised by any of the Parties winning or any of them coming third. I’m a great believer in local information from campaigns frequently leaking out into the betting odds but there are huge difficulties in accurately canvassing south asian voters because of their propensity to be unfailingly courteous to every canvasser who comes knocking.
Ugh, should have said: “individual’s”
On thread, a while back I put a little on the 8/1 that Hills were offering on the next election being on a weekend, but I had to phone it in if any one is interested.
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=8323
The trouble about voting on a Sunday is that a number of Churches/Church Halls are used as polling stations, if the churches put a stop to this as I expect many would it blows it right out of the water and new polling stations would have to be find. Saturday is a more neutral day, ok it is the Jewish sabbeth but as it sunrise to sunset they would still have time to vote and other arrangments could be made to accomodate them.
I suspect what will really kill the idea off is the likely overtime implications as many Council staff will quite willingly do it on a Thursday and get the extra money, they would no doubt want much more for working a Saturday. Costs would rise across the board.
I happen not to believe it would have a significant impact on turnout, in fact turnout may even drop further.
The trouble about voting on a Sunday is that a number of Churches/Church Halls are used as polling stations, if the churches put a stop to this as I expect many would it blows it right out of the water and new polling stations would have to be find. Saturday is a more neutral day, ok it is the Jewish sabbeth but as it sunrise to sunset they would still have time to vote and other arrangments could be made to accomodate them.
I suspect what will really kill the idea off is the likely overtime implications as many Council staff will quite willingly do it on a Thursday and get the extra money, they would no doubt want much more for working a Saturday. Costs would rise across the board.
I happen not to believe it would have a significant impact on turnout, in fact turnout may even drop further.
21 “Robin - It’s not working!!!! How can you be so blind - 60% turnout”
John Wheatley - I think you’ve got it wrong. The drop to 60% turnout (which I agree is dismal) is not because we vote on a Thursday and would therefore be resolved if we voted at the weekend. Otherwise how come we had turnouts in the past >80% on a Thursday?
Turnout is down because of spin, broken trust and a concerted disregard for elector enagagement. We know who to blame for this over the past 10 years.
Quite frankly, I don’t particularly have a problem with cockfighting. I’ve seen a few out here in Asia - particularly popular in Vietnam and Bali. Good fun. One of the chooks lost an eye but they soon sewed that up, and then he seemed pretty keen to get going again, after they gave him some vodka.
Roosters like fighting. Why not have a bet on it and invite your friends to watch the fun? It’s only cruel if you put spurs on them.
If anyone still believes the Tories can win the next election, there’s a good price of 3/1 on Betfair that Cameron survives in the job as Tory leader past Jan 2011… That has to be after the next election, and if he wins, it’s fairly certain he’d stay as leader until 2011. It’s also a nice fall back when they lose the next election but he hangs on for a year or so instead of resigning next morning and going off to watch cricket.
108. I agree, hence I didn’t bet the house, but since this is one of Gordon’s big ideas about how to rebuild trust with the public(and increase Labour turnout) I’m sure he’d find the money/get the polling station issues sorted. Whether it works with the public is a different question.
94
Obviously Winstanley would have made a good property developer, he had an eye for land, thats for certain.
109 Surely there are many more places available on a Sunday (and Saturday) that would otherwise be busy during the week. Schools or council offices for example. Finding places for polling stations at the weekend may actually be a lot easier.
I notice these days that the supermarkets are busier on Sundays than Saturdays. To hell with schools & halls - put the polling booths in portahuts outside the supermarkets
Money and hall space are piffling objections. The voting process underpins our whole democracy. If we can spend on a war plane or road, we can spend on voting
This thread has moved me to look at THE PUTNEY DEBATES on-line. It is truly shocking….shocking that the intelligence, fluency, and standard of political debate has declined so much since then.
109. All the schools would be free.
On topic. Weekend voting must be more convenient and I can’t see we would lose anything by adopting it. If some people are going to object to a sunday, then fine, why not try saturday. Given the problems of postal vote fraud and all the dubious methods Labour want to pursue to try and raise turn-out, I think weekend voting is the least of our worries.
Off topic. Still fairly perplexed by all this Tory marriage guff. Okay you might expect it of the Party, but I thought Cameron was supposed to be all things new. Saying that kids in 2 parent families do better than those with single parents is just trite. There is no clear evidence that most kids with single parents would be better off were the other one around (wife beaer, drug abuser etc) and even worse it is hard to see many families staying together for the sake of a few quid. Instead the priviledged will help themselves to a nice tax break - maybe that’s where Dave thinks the votes are.
Agree with Blue Moon [105] You should also beware the richer supporters of a particular party putting a few pounds on his (girls are not so daft) candidate to get the activists excited.
I really think that Ealing is far too big an ask for the Lib Dems. They were only just in second place at the GE and have no real presence on the council.
The Tories have some momentum (though probably not as much as Rik thinks) and the dedicated Tory here is unlikely to switch to the Lib Dems to give Labour a kicking. At Bromley the Labour share dropped from 22.2% to 6.6% !!!
I originally laid labour at 1.5 - have now backed them at 1.73 to go all green but not enough potential winnings with anyone to pay the petrol costs of getting there!
27 - Tyson “Robin- you are a senior executive in the health service- the majority of your job is about managing change. The people in your jobs who say we need to keep things as they are, we need to conserve, to consolidate wouldn’t last 5 mns. ”
Quite right Tyson. There is a distinction though. Conservatives are not by definition opposed to chnage per se, but to random unplanned change for change’s sake.
To suggest that changing the polling day to a Sunday will drive up turnout, without any supporting evidence, seems to me to miss three important points:
a) low turnout is a function of many variables (spin, borken trust, disengagement, etc, etc). I would address these before worrying baout the day we vote;
b) we have had historically high turnouts on a Thursday, therefore the day itself is not the issue;
c) changing the day could have unforeseen imacts - reducing turnout if people are away, devout, not passing the polling station on the way to work/school, etc, etc.
I’m sure you’ll agree that good change management is all about properly planned and evidenced change that is implemented in a consstructive and ordered way.
Simply selecting a headline off the shelf, for the sake of looking “new” is not good change management. Maybe that is a reason turnout is down???
Boris will run for mayor. I think he’ll beat Ken.
The delay in announcing his candidacy was because he insisted that George Bridges commission a private poll for the Tories on the likely outcome of a straight BJ v KL fight. I’m not privy to the result but I do know that Boris IS running so draw your own conclusions.
Checking Boris web page to see if his London Mayor bid is on/off/on again, His lead story starts:
“The other day, I was giving a lift to a group of 14-year-old girls…..”
Is this wise, has Boris been police checked?
20: Mark Senior - am I being thick, or is there a typo in this post? Elections are usually held on polling day…
122
I cannot believe that the Tory Party cannot find a credible candidate in the whole of London. The moment that Boris announces he’s a candidate, certain tabloids will have a field day. Interviews with Petronella Wyatt and ‘others’ will appear with regular monotony: Ken Livingstone will not be losing any sleep over this.
124 - I think he was meaning that the 2005 local (which you are comparing to) was held on a GE day, and so is liable to higher turnout for the local than ‘normal’. (Hope that makes slightly more sense…)
125 Look the public know all this about Boris and don’t give a t$$$. Boris doesn’t lecture anyone else on their private life so your pointless moralising is likely to leave people cold. None of that means Boris will win, but Ken is at least as colourful or controversial as you like. This one will be close, you watch
Nick, sorry you are being a little slow, if the voters have gone to try and vote out La Widdecombe (or even the mad ones support her) then they are more likely to vote in the simultaneous council election!
127. Yeah, Boris the shagger and Scouse-baiter versus Ken the brawler and anti-Semite (allegedly).
I don’t think Bozza’s past is gonna do him any damage, seeing what Ken’s done and got away with.
Londoners don’t care about that stuff.
127
They know what they know, what they don’t know is, is there anything else! What else is sitting in an editor’s safe, in a plain brown envelope, with a label bearing the words’ Only to be opened at the time when maximum impact and sales guaranteed’
127. “Look the public know all this about Boris and don’t give a t$$$. Boris doesn’t lecture anyone else on their private life so your pointless moralising is likely to leave people cold”
oh, come on, calm down.
124/126 Yes that is what I meant to say .
120 - good post Icarus. I suspect Labour’s share in Suthall will be in the 35-40% range which would usually be enough to lose. But I suspect the strength of both the Tory and Lib Dem campaigns will see them both getting in the mid to high 20s, leaving 10% for the others.
If the Tory campaign had collapsed there would only be one outcome, but as it hasn’t Labour should win on a split opposition.
Anyone foolish enough to put money on Boris for Mayor deserves to lose their cash. Livingstone would think it is Christmas (or whatever his politically correct version of it is).
It’ll be very interesting to see the attitude of Roman Catholic Conservatives, (And of the RC church in general to this one) will they feel able to endorse a candidate, who forced his mistress into an abortion clinic?: over to you Ann Widdecombe.
133 Right, the next price to find is on Labour winning ES with less than one third of the votes cast. If it is a three way split, with good support for some of the independents and minor parties, it might well happen.
Ken, Boris…2 colorful candidates..can the LDs find a statesman-like person? Maybe it would not enough, but at least they would have a USP somehow (maybe)
133 - “Anyone foolish enough to put money on Boris for Mayor deserves to lose their cash. Livingstone would think it is Christmas (or whatever his politically correct version of it is).”
I completely disagree - I think Ken would have much preferred to face a non-entity or Steve Norris again. The Tories have enough support in London to win this - all they need is a candidate.
133. “If the Tory campaign had collapsed there would only be one outcome, but as it hasn’t Labour should win on a split opposition.”
In Dunfermline the third placed SNP vote didn’t collapsed (they went up in terms of %), but it wasn’t enough to save Labour
136. Mark Oaten for mayor of London? He’d get the meatrack vote.
Oh and then again there was his ‘Darius Guppy’ period, Boris was lucky not to face a conspiracy to murder charge on that one.
138 - indeed - but the dynamics of a four party fight are different.
An increase in the SNP vote in Dunfermline mainly damaged Labour (a bit like Respect in Leicester or Hodge Hill), but in Southall there will be lots of cross voting between all parties and factions.
Interestingly there’s been £3k more bet on Sedgefield than Southall at 1/200 there is no value in backing Labour (even for a week) and little prospect of an upset - so why the interest?
136 If Dyke reconsiders and runs “independently” expect the Lib Dems to stand aside and adopt him as their quasi official man.
138 Thanks for the Mirror article they say Lib Dems now at 17/1. I got on at 20/1. Makes me feel mildly optimistic
102 IA. Jack W .. DOB January 1903. Male franchise 21 years. First Election 1924 election.
141. Where did you get a 4 way fight in Dunfermline from? Lib Dems, SNP, Labour and err you’re not counting the Tories are you seriously.
130 Desperate stuff. Boris sells papers any day of the week. The press didn’t hold back on any previou stories id they, and what Editor would risk being scooped just on the off chance Boris might run for London Mayor. Something no one saw six months ago I would say
Coldstone is obviously unaware that the laws of libel apply to the internet:
“It’ll be very interesting to see the attitude of Roman Catholic Conservatives, (And of the RC church in general to this one) will they feel able to endorse a candidate, who forced his mistress into an abortion clinic?: over to you Ann Widdecombe.”
“Oh and then again there was his ‘Darius Guppy’ period, Boris was lucky not to face a conspiracy to murder charge on that one.”
These are malicious misinterpretations of stories that are themselves allegations. Mike is away on holiday and I’m sure he doesn’t want to return to find a writ for defamation on his doormat.
Look I’m not being all moral about this. I honestly think there are more important things to get worked up about, but Benedict explicity asked the question “do you eat meat?” to which the answer is “what’s that got to do with the price of fish?”.
We don’t live like our ancestors. Get over it or crawl back into your caves.
The “human nature” argument doesn’t hold water because killing things has gone out of fashion. Humans used to do a lot of (mainly violent) things that we no longer tolerate, why is blood sport any different? Face it, we no longer find it acceptable to get a kick out of killing.
As to “la chasse” I bet it’s a lot less thrilling if you don’t get to drag your carcass back home and plant it in the deep freeze for a century or so, or get your own back on the local vermin. Why would those thwarted fox hunters have made threatened to put all their dogs down otherwise?
Ben
Dan the more I look at Bromley the more I think it could be a guide.
Bromley GE was: Tory 51.1% Labour 22.2% and Lib Dem 20.3%
By-election: Tory 40.0% Lib Dem 37.8% Labour 6.6%
Ealing & Southall GE: Labour 48.8% Lib Dem 24.4% and Tory 21.6%
At Bromley the Tories had a shiny new leader and an OK candidate and still their share dropped by 11.1% (UKIP picked up 4.9%). Turnout dropped from 64.8% to 40.5% (Guardian says 24.8% but thankfully I double checked!)
Labour are running a poor campaign in E & S (sorry Nick) and have chosen a lacklustre candidate so a drop to about 35% is on the cards - The trick will be to convince the 35% of the elctorate who are likely to vote that only the Lib Dem/ Tory (delete as appropriate) can win here. I think it is likely to result in a stalemate with as Dan says both on mid to high 20s.
The only thing could shake this is if the disillusion with the Labour candidate is