My by election bets
July 14th, 2007
Just arriving in Calais after my short holiday in time to focus on the next five days of intense activity for the by elections.
How will Gordon go down when real voters cast real votes next Thursday? Will the bounce that we’ve seen in the polls be sustained with Labour comfortably retaining both seats, albeit with reduced majorities?
I’ve got £400 at risk already and no doubt I’ll be tempted more in the coming days. These are my bets:
£200 at 6/5 that Labour’s Sedgefield share will be down on 2005. This is my banker bet because Labour always finds it hard to get its votes out when the government of the country is not at stake. My expected profit here should cover any losses on the other riskier bets.
£100 at 12/1 that Labour will not make the top two in Ealing Southall. This will probably a loser but with the race apparently so close there must be a greater than 8% chance that this will happen. William Hill offered me this price after I had put out a wager offer on the site.
£100 at 10/1 that Labour will lose a by election before Gordon either goes to the country, withdraws fully from Iraq, has another child or sees Raith Rovers win promotion. The great thing about this bet is that it will still stand even if Labour are returned safely in both seats.
I might also put a speculative bet on the Lib Dems in Sedgefield provided the odds are right. Never write off the Lib Dems ability to pull of by election sensations however unlikely it might appear. In February last year Labour were at 1/5 even as the Dunfermline returning officer was about to announce the result.
I’ll be back posting normally on Monday.
Mike Smithson
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I was in E.S. again today, and this time I noticed far more Labour posters in ordinary homes than before. Ealing town centre was a political ghost-town, but in Southall there was a great plethora of activity all day, including Vince Cable, Keith Vaz, Theresa May, a lot of Labour Party placard-bearers, the usual gaggle of excitable young sandal-wearers frantically waggling their orange placards in a frenzied media mating-ritual, several cars with loudspeakers (1 Lib Dem, 2 Respect, 3 Labour), street stalls (1 Green, 2 Respect, 1 Conservative), 1 van full of electiony stuff (Jasdev Rai), and fungus-type plague of little yellow stickers sprouting on lamp-posts, children and balloons as well as bona-fido yoghurt-knitters, and several people spontaneously bigging up Tony Lit.
As far as the result is concerned, there is no sign of a third-party tactical squeeze, but I wouldn’t rule out a big Lib Dem win (like in Brent or Dunfermline). For the top three positions, all I would rule out is Labour coming third, or Conservative winning. Tony Lit might lose by only 1000 or 2000, but probably not win. Ealing Southall has always been unpredictable, and Lib Dem could easily win, or come third, by a large margin.
Today I also spotted a new most-parties-in-one-shop-window record: a bakery near Southall station had five posters (for Lit, Sharma, Dhillon, Bakhai and Rai).
Labour out of the first 3? God that is brave.
I’d rather back that Amir Khan gets put on the seat of pants at some point in this fight. Lets hoep his chin gets tested and he passes.
For the record I took a very small dip into the Tories for Ealing, mainly for the hell of it and the fact that the whole defection business hadnt filtered through so I could lay off for a few pennies profit. I still think labour will win it.
I’ve got a good amount on Labour losing a by-election before the other events with a covering bet on Iraq withdrawal. Also a reasonable amount on Labour getting less than 58.9% - will be staggered if that one doesn’t come through.
Apart from that I’ve been playing the betfair markets on Sedgefield and Ealing and am currently all green on both thanks to the way the odds have been all over the place. Lots of cash if Sedgefield goes Lib Dem, thanks to some of the silly odds that have been offered.
I’ve been tempted into my first by election bet putting a modest amount on the Lib Dems to win Southall in the hope that I might be able to lay it off once the bar charts start to have an effect.
For anyone watching ITV boxing there may be opportunities in running on the Khan Limond match up mainly due to Khan’s popularity and Limond’s enthusiasm for the job in hand.
Mike:
1. £200 bet re vote share in Sedgefield is free money and you have thus covered your other bets.
2. Labour not to make top 2 in Southall is nearer 100/1
3. looks good value. Gordon wont have another child; Raith cannot win promotion till May 08
Good luck!
To Tory Eurosceptics. I would rather the UK split and an independent England joined fully into the EU than remaining part of a disunited Kingdon consisting of a union of four countries who don’t really like each other. I will soon start to push the ‘English independence within Europe’ argument soon because I am sick of the current UK setup.
I can’t see Labour dropping into the low 20’s in Southall Mike which is what they’d need to do to fall below Tony Lits share, especially with the coverage this labour donation+photo is going to get in the run up to the election. Still its covered by bet 1 so worth a go.
Ah well, blinked and you missed the opportunities on the boxing….now for two fat blokes slugging it out, slowly….
7 - Exaggerating your own importance a bit, aren’t you?
7 - have to say we (england) dont really like the other 3 countries but would rather the Union was retained - although like to see the handouts to Scotland and Wales stopped…..
2. Who said anything about Labour being out of the top three? (confuzzled)
5. I was being distracted by Amir’s gorgeous rippling muscles too much to think about betting.
9 LOL! We both called it right, Yokel, but I didn’t bet.
Did you?!
re 12. That was the only reason I switched it on too! Still thanks for the tip Yokel, I managed to go all green before Limond went mammaries up.
With reference to Tony Lit, a prominent Conservative today contemptuously rejected the idea of going to campaign for someone who “only joined the party ten days ago”. Perhaps Comrade Sunshine is more popular with the proles than with the party hierarchy.
How can the Conservative Party contain so few people who understand politics?
What has happened to tabman and book value? I haven’t seen them posting for ages.
15 - it’s no wonder the Conservatives seem keener for people to defect away from them (see ridiculous thread on John Bercow on ConHome) than to defect to them!
My assessment of your bets:
1) Labour vote share down on 2005 in Sedgefield: Very likely, the average Labour drop in the by-elections this parliament is 9% so that looks like a £40 profit on that one.
2) Labour not to make the top two in Southall: What were you thinking? If Labour was to come third (no matter how close the result) in Southall, it would be a Labour disaster. The Brown bounce would fade, Cameron and Campbell would be tussling for the poll leads and Labour would be panicking. That’s a £100 loss.
3) Labour to lose a by-election between now and the election: Almost certain, especially if reports from Sedgefield are to be belived. £1,000 for certain.
Net: £1,000 + £240 - £100 = £1,140 from £400. Not bad I think
11 “have to say we (england) dont really like the other 3 countries . . .”
You speak for yourself! I am English but love Wales, Ireland and Scotland. The only European country that I find any difficulty in liking is France, in fact - and then only on one limited set of circumstances, i.e. when selfishly trying to make the EU run for the benefit of France and French interests to the detriment of other countries. It is one thing to defend your national interest - it is quite another to want everything your own way! Still, it’s a beautiful country with a lot of nice people and a lot to teach us.
20 - good call re France!
The problem I have with Wales and Scotland is that they love rubbing our noses in their own ‘nationality’ and then expect England to pay for everything!
Actually I have no problem with NI.
20. Perhaps the Tory Europhiles should play ‘English independence within the EU’ and the Tory Europsceptics ‘English Independence from both the UK and EU’
13. I dropped you an email. If the superhighway is more than a country B road you should have got to you.
17 - Hello: I’m around now and then, but busier with non-political stuff than I used to be. I think likewise for Tabman…
I think this is new news, but just seen and cannot yet x-reference. Big Labour leads in 2 polls:
>>
Press Association
Saturday July 14, 2007 9:43 PM
The prospect of an early general election moved closer as a poll showed Gordon Brown is backed by almost twice as many people as David Cameron to lead the country.
Labour also enjoys a seven-point lead over the Tories as the “Brown bounce” continues, according to an ICM survey for the News of the World. The poll came as it emerged that key Cabinet ally Ed Miliband had been told to get to work on Labour’s manifesto for the next general election.
The process is expected to continue through the autumn, but will fuel speculation that Mr Brown could go to the country next spring - two years before an election is necessary.
The ICM poll found that 53% of people felt Mr Brown was best equipped to lead Britain, compared to 27% for Mr Cameron.
Earlier this year, the same pollsters gave the Tory leader a five-point lead over Mr Brown on their personal ratings. Labour also established a significant lead over the Tories, by 35% to 28%, having fallen behind in many polls during the final months of Tony Blair’s tenure.
Sir Menzies Campbell’s leadership is likely to face further questions after the poll put the Liberal Democrats on just 13%.
A second opinion poll also gave Labour a seven-point lead over the Tories when voters were asked who they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow.
An ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph put Labour on 40% compared to 33% for the Tories and 19% for the Lib Dems - enough to give Mr Brown a majority of more than 100 seats. It was the biggest poll lead for Labour in an ICM poll since September 2005.
The poll gave some encouragement to Tory leader David Cameron, however, suggesting strong support for his stance on the importance of marriage. Some 70% of voters felt it was better for parents to be married.
However, opinion was split on giving tax incentives for marriage, as backed by Mr Cameron this week. While 49% backed the plan, 44% opposed it.
© Copyright Press Association Ltd 2007, All Rights Reserved.
It seems that talk of a fundamental change of emphasis in out foreign policy has been premature . . .
QUOTE
“Foreign Secretary David Miliband has insisted the United States will continue to be the UK’s “most important partner in the world”. . . .
“With a new Brown government some people are looking for evidence that our alliance is breaking up.
“There isn’t any. The US is our single most important partner in the world. Nothing has changed.”
END-QUOTE
Full article at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6899222.stm
Should end the honeymoon for one or two people.
See last thread Jon. One poll, the 40% is correct, the other is voodoo figures gussied up by notw.
25 - Nope. It’s old.
23 Yes thanks Yokel. Have replied.
Just re-reading my own post - those NoW poll numbers (if correctly reported L 35%, C 28%) are weird!
30. It is one poll reported two ways and those figures are BS. The straight figures are the telegraph ones. See end of last thread.
25 - interesting.
I think increasingly the view is that Cameron cannot win a general election. (In the same way, that retrospectively it was clear that Kinnock could not win a general election).
Certainly Cameron has no support at all in the North, Wales or Scotland.
So although Brown is not popular in large areas he is ‘old Labour’ enough to guarantee 250+ seats in north/Scotland/Wales and perhaps retain enough support from those who dont really want a change in other areas in England.
That being said he only needs to lose 20 seats (post boundary changes) to lose overall control and that still looks the likeliest outcome.
Remember the polls ALWAYS overstate labour support
18 - I wonder why the Conservatives are still hating Bercow so much that they want to get rid of them. I would have understood it better before Cameron became leader, as his views differed radically from the official party line, but now when Cameron is trying to lead the whole party to Bercow’s direction, you’d think that the Tories would hail Bercow as a pioneer, and celebrate his courage to support those views before anybody else in the Conservative party.
Re 32 Ave It, “Certainly Cameron has no support at all in the North, Wales or Scotland”
In the north? Where we have more councilors than any other party? Are you sure?
34 - local Councillors count for nothing
Remember labour in the 80s/early 90s - lots of councillors - no GE wins
Re 33, M, perhaps it is just a few daft people and a bunch of trolls?
The Sky news paper review, featured ‘Tony Lit’s’ sudden conversion to Cameron’s Conservatives only 8 days after appearing with TB and his company making a £4,800 donation to Labour, think this will run quite strongly up to polling day.
37 - So they can vote conservative *and* labour at the same time, canny positioning that.
Re 35, Ave it, “local Councillors count for nothing”
No, that is tosh, they are not the be all and end all but they are important and a frequent portent of the future.
39 - remember in the 80s Labour winning big on councils in Harlow Slough Brighton etc - no GE seats!
40 Call a GE if you think you’re hard enough!
Re 40, Ave it, remind me, what was the majority in parliament of this governments most popular ever PM? And you still argue that councilors make no difference?
Perhaps you have a different recollection of GE results for the last 30 years.
How the Sunday Telegraph is reporting the poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=S1NTLBP1TNIZPQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0?xml=/news/2007/07/14/nbrown214.xml
37 - what, exactly, is the ‘issue’ here?
37. Not really - it could backfire badly. Tony Lit could say that his company made a donation to Labour which entitled him to meet with TB and other bigwigs in the Party. After meeting them, he was so disgusted he decided to fight them.
Remember Brecon & Radnor 1985?
Conservative (i.e. government party) seat, relatively safe outside by-elections, big Labour lead in the by-election opinion polls, big swing to Liberal in the last few days, unexpected Labour defeat.
Translate into Ealing Southall: Labour seat with substantial (but not overwhelming) Conservative bandwagon, perhaps a last minute surge by the Lib Dems (caused by cold feet from Southall voters and big turnout in Ealing town areas), Lib Dem win?
I just don’t get the suggestion which I’ve heard from various people that the Lib Dems have flopped, or that they are going to lose badly, or that they are going to be squeezed by the Litites.
46 JohnLoony “I just don’t get the suggestion which I’ve heard from various people that the Lib Dems have flopped, or that they are going to lose badly, or that they are going to be squeezed by the Litites.”
“…squeezed by the Litites” - My God! That sounds painful!
How the telegraph is reporting the, The Tony Lit ‘conversion’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/14/nbrown314.xml
45, “After meeting them, he was so disgusted he decided to fight them”
Has he never heard of them before meeting them? Labour is not exactly a new party with some strange secret policies, ideas, people who can lead someone of forming a wrong opinion of them until the last minute
45. he looked quite happy in the photo of him and blair
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/14/nbrown314.xml
“From Labour donor to Tory candidate” … -this is no news anymore, but pay attention to this part:
“Nothing, it seems, has been too much trouble. When The Sunday Telegraph visited the seat last week, it found George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, standing barefoot behind a counter in an orange hygiene hat serving lentil curry and rice pudding to worshippers in a Sikh temple.” - This is like straight from a Jack W joke.
45
Perhpas he just didn’t recognise the guy he was standing next to
41 - I think we support the same party (?)
42 - not sure I understand your question (?) PS I think we support the same party too!
I think some of us have been around a bit longer and genuinely understand what really matters (GE votes) and what is peripheral (local elections and especially by elections/polls!)
51
Thank god, at last they’ve found George Osborne a proper job!
49 Andrea. Isn’t it possible that when you meet people in the flesh they can be different to the image that you may have formed of them just from seeing them on TV? Or do you think that TV is an accurate guide? Do you really believe that a man can fly?
Hi guys, heres some stuff from the ‘Campaign for Independent England’ about GB.
“Since Gordon Brown has been Chancellor English people have been pummelled by taxes to fund a spending binge on health and education that has failed to deliver the improvements taxpayers had a right to expect. The money has been wasted. Where has it all gone?
———————————————————
Removal of pension tax relief has led to the destruction of English pensions for many adults who must now work longer to get their pensions. It’s been reported that Gordon Brown knew of this but went ahead with a policy which punished English people.
———————————————————
Brown has been accused of Stalinist behaviour by a Senior Civil servant.
———————————————————
Gordon Brown has insulted English people by putting an image of a Scot, Adam Smith, on the reverse of the new £20 English note. Yet no English person is allowed on Scottish £20 notes.
———————————————————
It has been revealed that Gordon Brown boasted of Scotland’s ‘humbling’ of the England team that won the 1966 tournament.
He claimed Scotland were the real world champions because they beat Bobby Moore’s heroes soon afterwards. And he revelled in the ’sheer joy of defeating the English at their own game’.
The Chancellor also saluted Scottish hooligans who tore up the Wembley turf and broke the crossbar after another victory over the English.
In an article entitled Why Scotland Means The World To Me, self-proclaimed “Tartan Army” member Mr Brown invokes ancient battlefield defeats by the English at Flodden and Culloden to explain why he enjoyed beating the Auld Enemy at football so much.
Pouring scorn on ‘envious England’, he praises ‘the fanaticism of Scotland’s following - of which I have been a part for many years’ and proudly recounts appalling hooliganism after two of Scotland’s most famous Wembley victories.
“You need only to recollect the scenes of delirium among Scots fans,’ regales Brown, ‘when they tore up bits of turf to take home - to realise there was more at stake than the result of 22 men kicking a ball around.”
He shows no concern about even worse violence in 1977 when Scots fans ripped up more turf and broke the crossbar after Scotland won 2-1.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the hundreds that took a lump had eaten a bit. Some, I know, jumped on to the crossbar and broke that up too.” He says one of the rioters was an MP colleague, though he does not name him. Gordon Brown apparently has anti-English colleague, what does that say about Gordon Brown.
Brown rues Scotland’s poor form in the Eighties and Nineties, but concludes with an anti-English rally cry: “Who knows? Some day… And if the worst comes to the worst, we still beat England sometimes”
———————————————————
In July 1988 and Gordon Brown signed the Scottish Constitutional Convention’s Claim of Right:
We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs, and do hereby declare and pledge that in all our actions and deliberations their interests shall be paramount.
So why does he believe this for Scotland but not England?
———————————————————
When Gordon Brown and Tony Blair achieved devolution for Scotland they also, quite wilfully and with complete disregard for England, created a democratic deficit that allowed Scottish MP’s to vote on English matters but forbade English MP’s from voting on the same Scottish matters. So what we now have is a union between two nations in which the Scottish electorate foists foreign MPs upon the English electorate.
———————————————————
The Scottish electorate elect MP’s like Gordon Brown to represent them on matters at Westminster, yet they know full well that these Scottish MP’s will meddle in English health, education and transport - devolved areas over which Gordon Brown has no democratic mandate in England and no authority in Scotland. Why are Scottish MP’s determining policies in England when they cannot determine those same policies in Scotland.
———————————————————
Whilst the Scots and Welsh have their own legislatures to debate their own national life and politics, in England hypocrites like Brown are allowed undue influence over English national life that they helped deny English politicians in Scotland.
———————————————————
Gordon Brown now refers to Britain as the ‘nations and regions’ of Britain (Scotland and Wales the nations, England the regions). It seems Gordon has achieved his life long dream of destroying the English nation and replacing it with 9 regions.
———————————————————
Gordon Brown spends all his time in England. His wife is English. Yet just before his English wife gave birth to their children, he sent her to Scotland to have their children. Why didn’t Gordon Brown want his children born in England?
———————————————————
Gordon Brown was told, in 1997, the effects that scrapping the tax relief on pension contributions would be - to date £75bn taken from pension pots that hard working men and women strove to make in readiness for retirement. Gordon Brown himself has a very large and protected pension.
———————————————————-
Gordon Brown is so determined to tax the English people in to oblivion, he now has satellites spying on English homes to check for improvements. Any English person that dares to make any external improvements to their home will be taxed. This policy will not be introduced into Scotland.”
Do you still realy want Gordon Brown as Prime Minister? I don’t
56 - lets send Brown back to Scotland now!
Bit late now.
Has anyone pointed out to francis that we talk about Political Betting here?
I do get the impression that he is unaware of this.
55. “Isn’t it possible that when you meet people in the flesh they can be different to the image that you may have formed of them just from seeing them on TV? Or do you think that TV is an accurate guide?”
you know, politics is also policies, ideas, values…they can survive even if you don’t find someone nice or funny in person…it’s not just personalities…
59. What are the odds of Scotland getting iindependence by the next GE?
58. “Bit late now. ”
Better later than never…
55 - They sure can: http://andymayer.blogspot.com/2007/07/tory-and-labour-campaigns-almost.html
Ealing Southall two interesting approaches:
Cheese and wine:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmkGBEMqmc
Campaign and grind:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gzponRHUXs
61 - tomorrow hopefully lol
62 - true
Any chance of implementing a restriction on the number of characters in any given post, and the number of characters posted per hour?
Posting an article disguised as a comment is NOT ON!
Who will come last in Ealing Southall?
“Mr Lit himself appeared to have taken the seat by storm. At one point he was mobbed and chased down the street by screaming schoolchildren”.
Reminds me of my favourite TV clip of the 1983 GE where Michael Foot was mobbed by over 1000 screaming schoolchildren in the centre of Skelmersdale - Labour lost in the seat by a VERY large margin.
67 LibDem or Labour.
67 - possibly one of the small minor parties, LDS etc…
68. ” where Michael Foot was mobbed by over 1000 screaming schoolchildren in the centre of Skelmersdale - Labour lost in the seat by a VERY large margin. ”
Galloglas, that’s because those schoolchildren couldn’t vote
69. Test, is your favourite dream?
Re 53, Ave it, Maggie won a landslide in 1983, Tony Blair in 1997, yet John Major the most popular PM ever only had a majority of 20.
Part of that was down to the relative size of councilor base.
I agree that it is not the be all and end all.
72 - I note Major got the largest absolute vote in ‘000s of all time - but would not recognise him in substance as ‘the most popular PM of all time’
I think we agree there are different interpretations on the value of local councillors - it is good to have a base but it doesnt guarantee GE success
60 - Very true, Policy should be vitally important, but in the current era, the calibre of the person is more important than policy. I can image meeting someone in person and it altering my whole perception as to whether I really want this person to be running the country. Policies may seem important, but politicians don’t seem to have any difficulty in ignoring what is in the manifesto, once they have gained power, or reversing previous decisions (e.g, Casinos).
71. Certainly Andrea and those same schoolchildren in Ealing can’t vote for Labour donor Mr Lit either
Don’t think he’ll finish last though as the 2 guys who withdrew but are still on the ballot paper should finish below him still
Re 73, Ave it, “I note Major got the largest absolute vote in ‘000s of all time - but would not recognise him in substance as ‘the most popular PM of all time’”
Wouldn’t you? He was in terms of votes. Does anything else count? How many “pundits” like him?
76 - he was not in terms of majority (which is what counts) or seats or % lead over next party.
Lib Dems now second favourite in Southall - I guess tonight’s revelations have stopped even the most enthusiastic Tories from parting with their cash.
On Betfair that is…
All LDs - can ming lead LDs back to 1970 result????
re 75, Gallogalss, “Don’t think he’ll finish last though as the 2 guys who withdrew but are still on the ballot paper should finish below him still :D”
I welcome that concession
Re 77, Ave it, “he was not in terms of majority (which is what counts) or seats or % lead over next party.”
And what were you saying about how unimportant the number of councilors were?
82 (yawn, sorry its getting late) - not sure what your comment re councillors has to do with PARLIAMENTARY SEATS
83. what Benedict’s explaining to you with far more patience than I would have, Ave it is that without councillors who comprise a good proportion of party activists in any constituency any party without them will suffer and lose ground. As happened to John Major in 1992 and had happened to jim Callaghan in 1979.
80 - I take it you are referring to Jeremy Thorpe “leading” the Liberals to a glorious 6 seats.
You are deluded, Ave It. The LDs are struggling a little at the moment, but we have not pretended that we are going to be in Government in a couple of years. Tonight’s poll is dreadful for Her Majesty’s Opposition.
Will Cameron follow in Howard’s, Hague’s and Major’s footsteps and lead his party to one of the worst GE results in 100 years? This is the first poll to suggest so. (Let’s be fair to Ming, however bad things may go for the LDs, 6-12 seats is not on the cards!)
I have little idea of what is going on in Ealing. There have not been the usual begging letters from Cowley Street, probably as there has not been time. There has been huge publicity about the Sikh vote - which is 10% of the constituency only - perhaps 2,500 votes on a low turnout. This talk of one of the defectors having a personal vote of 3,000 is not entirely convincing.
reading through the posts on cons. home this evening really gave me a sense of deja vu, it was just like discussions in the labour party circa 1988. So many of the folk there do not get it and are not in touch with reality the ones that do then get huge loads of abuse. The stuff with regard to John Bercow is just bizarre, rule number one do not under any circumstances put down your own side (copyright Peter Mandelson, Alistair Campbell, Charlie Whelan etc etc 1994), I thought that the Cameroonies were supposed to be following the book.
Why is there twice the amount of money being laid on the betfair market on Sedgefield as opposed to Southall? There appear to be a group of muppets who seem to want to play with the Southall market and it is clearly more interesting and with a more uncertain outcome than Sedgefield yet the amount of cash is only half that of Sedgefield which seems to be a done deal??
re 83, Ave it, “(yawn, sorry its getting late) - not sure what your comment re councillors has to do with PARLIAMENTARY SEATS”
How many councillors did Labour have in 1983, when we got a landslide compared to us, and in 1992, when we should have thumped them with a massive popular vote but did not?
As Galloglass says, look at Callaghan as well.
85 Lot of exhortation e-mails, tho’
51 “George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, standing barefoot behind a counter in an orange hygiene hat serving lentil curry and rice pudding to worshippers in a Sikh temple”
- I thought it was illegal to treat voters with meals.
64 “Cheese and wine:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmkGBEMqmc “
- Are those people eating cheese and drinking wine voters or campaigners?
Sorry, my first link doesn’t seem to work. It was http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6519117.stm
87. “How many councillors did Labour have in 1983, when we got a landslide compared to us, and in 1992, when we should have thumped them with a massive popular vote but did not?”
In 1982 the tories held 41% of councillors compared to 35% for Labour. In 1991 Labour had 39% of councillors to 33% for the Tories
87 The Tories did thump Labour in the 1992 Local Elections which took place a month after the General Election - the re-elected Major govt still enjoying a honeymoon!
Re: 46: Conservative (i.e. government party) seat, relatively safe outside by-elections, big Labour lead in the by-election opinion polls, big swing to Liberal in the last few days, unexpected Labour defeat.>>>>
I was there - there was little movement over the course of the by-election. Yes! the Liberal’s probably moved forward, but the “big Swing” simply did not happen. The pollsters just got it wrong. There was a theory at the time (I do not know how much credence to attache to it) that the hill-farmers were heavily pro the Liberal candidate, that these people were hard to reach for face-face interviews (1985 remember) and that they did sit in a demongraphic grouping and were therefore there absense was not corrected for.
Re 72, “Ave it, Maggie won a landslide in 1983, Tony Blair in 1997, yet John Major the most popular PM ever only had a majority of 20.”
John Major’s Conservative polled 41.9% UK vote in 1992, just 0.5% less than Margaret Thatcher’s 42.4 in 1983. It wasn’t the council base, it was the voting system.
RE:93 - apologies for spolling mistecks - but also the “did sit in a demongraphic grouping” is clearly meant to read “did not sit in a demgraphic grouping”.