Could the postal vote leak be pointing to a sensation?
July 19th, 2007
Why have Labour called in the police if its not true?
The very first intimation in February 2006 that something sensational was about to happen in the Dunfermline by election was when it started to emerge that the Lib Dems were doing well with the postal vote - which are opened and verified in front of party officials before the polls open.
At the time I reported that amongst Lib Dems “There was a buzz amongst their workers after the first postal votes were opened yesterday and some heady souls were even putting their money on a win.” The LD price on the day before the election was 7/1.
So it’s no wonder, then, that last night’s “leak” that the Tories and Labour were neck and neck in Ealing Southall should have had an impact on the markets. The Tory price has moved in from 6/1 to 3.2/1. According to this morning’s Guardian the leak showed that the “Tories were neck and neck with Labour and the Liberal Democrats trailing in third place, about five points behind”
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If this is a line that is being used to position the Tories, not the Lib Dems, as the main challenger then I would have expected contradictory information to come from other partes. Instead Labour has called in the police which reinforces its authenticity.
The level of postal votes is usually an indication of good on the ground organisation. Thus in Sedgefield there is massive total of 13,000 on the postal vote list which probably indicates the efforts that Tony Blair’s old local party has taken to ensure that he got good results.
In the Southall seat Labour has more members than in any other constituency in the entire country. From that you would conclude that the party would have the lion’s share of the postal votes.
So if the leak has any foundation whatsoever it could be pointing to a sensational result.
One factor with postal voting is that electors usually fill in their ballots and get them off almost as soon as they arrive. So it’s highly possible that many of them here voted before the embarrassing pictures of the Tory candidate, Tony Lit, at a Labour event with Tony Blair hit the streets.
Until that story came out it was widely assumed that having Lit as candidate could give Cameron’s party a big boost in a seat where they came third at the general election.
It is, of course, a criminal offence to reveal information about the postal vote count and the police are now investigating.
Mike Smithson
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Assuming the postal vote leak is correct, I would say the Tories are headed for third place, but in a close three-way race. Postal voting happened before the news broke about Lit’s donations to Labour, so I can’t imagine the Tories improving on the postal vote today. The question then is whether the Lib Dems will benefit enough from that inevitable Tory decline to overtake Labour. I’m not sure, but I rather doubt it. We shall see, I suppose.
PVs are obv outstanding for the Tories.
I have no idea what will happen in ES.
I point out to LDs who are going to try to spin a 7pt deficit as good for them that Nick Palmer has now (twice) posted that according to his sense of the campaign, Tories, not LDs, are second behind Labour - and yet in fact, IF true, we are neck and neck.
I have no info at all on the state of play. All to work for today.
As the posting has gone from the Telegraph, you won’t have seen my comment on there
But it pointed out that during the Leicester South by-election the Tories pulled the same trick of leaking supposed postal voting information, claiming the contest showed they were poised to take the seat from Labour. But what actually happened was the Lib Dems took the seat, the Tories were third and indeed their vote fell.
3. It is worth pointing out, of course, that no one seriously thought the Tories had any chance at all of winning Leicester South. The Conservatives certainly had a shot at Ealing Southall, but they’ve blown it in the last few days (or blew it in the beginning with their choice of candidate, depending on how you want to look at it).
Oh blimey, look at the spinning now.
It was Labour who made the complaint which almost certainly means the figures are true. Not the LibDems. Bloody stupid of Labour to complain and confirm the truth of the figures since we were all not quite believing of them last night.
If Labour do win in ES it will be despite and not because of Tom Watson.
4. Not according to the Labour MP posting on this site, they haven’t (see my 2)
Tom: the Tories made great play in the media and in their leaflets claiming that they could win in Leicester South.
Tom: the Tories made great play in the media and in their leaflets claiming that they could win in Leicester South.
5 “It was Labour who made the complaint which almost certainly means the figures are true.”
It might - equally it might mean that Labour wants maximum exposure for these figures, believing they will help them squeeze out the lib dems. I don’t buy your argument that Labour are “bloody stupid” on issues like this.
5 “It was Labour who made the complaint which almost certainly means the figures are true.”
It might - equally it might mean that Labour wants maximum exposure for these figures, believing they will help them squeeze out the lib dems. I don’t buy your argument that Labour are “bloody stupid” on issues like this.
5 “It was Labour who made the complaint which almost certainly means the figures are true.”
It might - equally it might mean that Labour wants maximum exposure for these figures, believing they will help them squeeze out the lib dems. I don’t buy your argument that Labour are “bloody stupid” on issues like this.
7. What the Conservatives said and what the Conservatives (and everyone else) believed about Leicester South are two entirely different things.
6. I’m a Conservative, and Palmer is dead wrong on this one. We’ve lost; these PV results, if they are true, show that unequivocably. There is absolutely no chance of improving on the PV with the Lit-donating-to-Labour story out there. Since we didn’t win the PV decisively (which I didn’t really expect anyway; it was always a big ask for us to win Ealing Southall), we’re going to lose, probably coming in third.
It is very embarrassing that Lit was at a Labour fundraising.
Labour lost another supporter to the Conservatives.
More defections. More embarassment for Labour.
12 lol.
According to this story, and even the Libs above, the Tories leaked these figures (or a Tory did) because they thought it would help.
And I have to say, the press coverage, if read by LibDem waverers today (Guardian, Independent) may well squeeze their vote.
Clearly Mike and also the betting markets are not reading it that way. I don’t think a corporate donation to Labour not made by Tony Lit but by his Dad will have any real effect on this election one way or t’other. The reason I think Lab will win is just because it’s a safe seat and the ask is too great, nothing to do with Avtar Lit’s cheque.
“Schedule 6 of the amendments passed in 2000 to the 1983 Representation of the People Act states: “No person shall, in the case of an election to which this section applies, publish before the poll is closed any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted.”
Mike sounds as if you should delete posts that gave the figures that the Telegraph quoted from a Conservative source.
They don’t seem well up on electoral law - posters of Lit didn’t have the printer and publishers name on them.
Bet against the truly awesome LD by election machine at your peril.
No-one had an inkling how close they would finish in B&C (including the LDs)right up to the count, and we breezed the postal votes there.
Fingers crossed our man can stagger across the finishing line in front, but there’s no doubt that this donation business is hurting him badly.
It seems pretty clearcut that Mike is breaking the law in this post.
15 - Icarus - yes they do have the correct imprint! I have seen them! The agent is Chris Scott and he is a stickler for that kind of detail.
I dont know why you persist with your silly spinning on here. It completely lacks credibility and undermines everything you have to say!
If our posters didnt have an imprint you can be sure Labour would have tried to make something of it by now.
Lab/Lib scrapping it out for victory. Cons some way back in third. That’s my completely uninformed opinion.
Rik - it is the large ones - outside Sunshie radio - they were also on council property - fly posting!
Betfair E & S - Labour 1.7; Lib Dem 3.7 Conservative 5.0 Other 300.0
Could Rai or the Green candidate (0ver4% in last two elections) come through!!!
5 “It was Labour who made the complaint which almost certainly means the figures are true.”
Intrinsically it almost certainly means the opposite. At a number of Parliamentary by-elections in recent years word has seeped out (mostly from the Tories) that they’ve done well at the postal vote. Mark Pack is spot-on about what happened next.
(Though I have no problem with Tory fools being parted from their money!)
Jackie Smith admits taking cannabis - should imagine snowflake is calling for her to resign immediately as unfit for office (as she was with DC).
Well I have no idea whether the postal vote figures are true or not and I suggest no-one else on here does. However, where we have done well in postal votes before in elections I have been involved in, it has usually presaged a good result for us!
17. From the intro (1): “It is, of course, a criminal offence to reveal information about the postal vote count”
From the intro (2): “the leak suggested a LAB x%: CON y%: LD z% split.”
These two comments do seem contradictory and I do think Mike should be very careful on this one and might want to reconsider his wording.
Once the thread gets going, it will take on a life of its own - and the days events will add to that momentum. Keeping the figures and speculation (and that is all it is at the moment - postal votes are only so accurate in predicting the final outcome anyway), seems like taking an unneccesary risk.
23 - Rik. That ignores the case being put that the Tory campaign has fallen apart in the last week, something which would not be reflected in the postal votes.
The FT sets the bar for Cameron
In Thursday’s by-election in Ealing, Mr Cameron needs to look like a man who can stop the rot and demonstrate that the “Brown bounce” will not flatten the Tories all together.
Some of Mr Cameron’s critics would go further than this. They would argue that the Ealing by-election is also a test of the Tory leader’s judgment. In recent days, Mr Cameron has invested considerable personal authority in the outcome of the Ealing contest, visiting the constituency five times. The Tories should therefore expect to secure a decent result – coming no worse than second, ahead of the Liberal Democrats and halving Labour’s 11,440 majority. If Mr Cameron achieves that, his decision to train such a strong focus on Ealing will be vindicated.
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Should he fail, though, the questions about Mr Cameron’s judgment will come thick and fast. How did the Tories manage to pick a candidate recently photographed smiling alongside Tony Blair? Was Mr Cameron right to give the eccentric Boris Johnson carte blanche to put himself forward as Tory candidate in the London mayoral election? Others will ask the biggest question of all: after 19 months in office, just where is Mr Cameron’s project to reform the Conservative party going?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/aecbc616-3568-11dc-bb16-0000779fd2ac.html
I love how all the supposedly “Tory” yet we’ve never seen them on political betting before posters are popping up to say “Oh no! The LibDems have victory sewn up! Disaster! As a Tory I totally believe the Tory candidate is imploding! All hail Nigel Bakhai!”
It may well be that the LibDems can win and it’s a three way marginal but the astro-turfing should be a bit less obvious. These postal vote figures are great for the Tories, and that is why Labour called the police.
17, Alex, and other LibDems,
As this story - including figures on how far back the LibDems were - appears in every single broadsheet paper today, I highly doubt it would be running if it were against the law.
The Times, Indie, and Guardian are all running it, all with statemens that Tories and Labour are neck and neck with LibDems behind.. I haven’t gone through the Telegraph yet.
Can I suggest we stop posting about the by elections and spend the day honing our excuses when the results aren’t as we expect/hope!!!
I think the newspapers should get new lawyers then. I don’t see how the law could be read any other way.
Surprised to be accused of being a LibDem. That’s a first.
29 Rik doesn’t seem to have heeded the requests for his exact prediction other than saying that the Tories ‘will do very well’. Unless I’m wrong?
29 - sensible advice for once!!!
“Thus in Sedgefield there is massive total of 13,000 on the postal vote list which probably indicates the efforts that Tony Blair’s old local party has taken to ensure that he got good results.” Sigh rips up Sedgefield betting slip…………..
But wait how many Postal votes in ES. Does a high turnout have to mean good news for the normally dominant local Party. How many PVs cast in ES
re 17. I have amended the piece to take out the reported figures and to replace it with a quote from this morning’s Guardian.
Gordo’s new policy - make the people believe the tractor production figures rather than solve the problem..
“A strategy to move public perception of crime into line with falling figures is due to be launched by ministers. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6905769.stm
29: Very wise, Icarus. My foot is still interesting shades of black and blue so I’ll spend the day after Defra questions (I’ve got a pro-badger one down) on the phone, but won’t offer any more predictions!
33: The ES postal vote was relatively low - someone posted a provisional estimate (something like 6000) a few days ago.
29 Icarus,
Just to say I only take the PVs for what they are, the number doesn’t seem to be huge.
I don’t think we will need excuses, whatever happens. Having volunteered in this campaign myself I’ve witnessed first hand large crowds of CFers many of whom were there every single day, professional loudspeaker cars and lots of posters and leaflets and activity. Also we had 5 Labour and two ex-Labour local councillor defections, and tons of press.
I think Grant Shapps, therefore, has run a masterly campaign in totally safe Labour territory where we were nowhere at all.
FWIW, I give credit too to the Liberal Democrats for a perfectly good workmanlike campaign. As I stuffed leaflets we passed LibDem teams doing the same. It was almost French farce as we met them in blocks of flats and rows of streets. They were making their usual, very good, by election effort. They also cannot be faulted for anything other than lacklustre candidate selection IMO.
It’s Labour who I think have run the truly poor campaign, and while they remain favourites to win, I put that down to their incumbency and safe-seat status and think it will be despite not because of, as i said.
Whatever the result, masses of effort was put in by Tories and LibDems and I feel both opposition parties can reflect on it to their credit. So even if we are disappointed and make little progress since the GE I can’t see it being the local campaign that made that happen.
26 Wowee the FT, with its fanatical New Labour supporters Philip Stephens and Roger Blitz. Tell me would you regard the Daily Express as a good resource for Labour, or the Sun for the Liberal Democrats by any chance at all then…………..
36 How many PVs cast in Sedgefield then…………
34 I will point out without being specific that the Guardian piece, in stating a Liberal Democrat deficit, understates the reported deficit.
Having checked out the Labour candidate I wouldn’t rule out another bye election before too long in ES.
All above assume the donation to labour story has hurt Lit. It gave him national recognition, and gives the message that he is successful as a businessman which commands far higher respect among Asians than for the rest of the UK. It makes him look smart, and his picture has been in very newspaper for days. A gift from labour to Conservative, I would say.
It has also raised Cameron’s profile. I think Lit’s support level will have risen as a result not fallen.
42. “Whizzo businessman supports Labour - until Gordon takes over when he switches to the Conservatives”
Thats how I see the story anyway
Very fair Test [37] - The Conservatives seem to have learnt how the Lib Dems fight elections matching us almost leaflet for leaflet. The one obvious mistake was the hand written letter. Liberal Democrat ones are always hand written and personally addressed by the candidate themselves - The Tories used photocopied ones which wont work!
The gamble for the Tories has been to make it a Cameron campaign - his candidate, his name on the ballot paper. As some of us on here know, gambles don’t always come off (copyright ptp). One “rule” is don’t bet more than you can afford. Another is if it wouldn’t hurt if you lost, then you haven’t risked enough.
Speak again at about 1.30 tomorrow morning.
tapestry,dream on.
Tories,well in third.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: anyone who thinks that a large crowd of CF-ers turning up in a constituency actually will help improve the Tory vote there is barking up the wrong tree!
When I was at University, my campaigning record was unparalleled: large swings against in almost every constituency I campaigned in! Then again, maybe it was just me.
I’m a Tory. I supported John Major in 1997 and Michael Howard in 2005. Now, however, I can’t bring myself to vote for the Tory Party led by David Cameron, which puts spin over substance, proclaims itself as the ‘heir to Blair’ and insults the electorate with gimmicks.
I’m also a resident of Ealing Southwell. Mr Lit’s campaign is in meltdown after the revelation that he was a Labour donor, and the Tories are set to come a poor third. The Liberal Democrats, in contrast, have run a superb campaign and I suspect a huge upset is on the cards.
NOTE: Mr. Turfer has never posted here before MS
47. Welcome aboard - you will be amongst like minds here - lol.
It seems I failed to enter the pb.com competition, I tried twice but I got back a “Delivery to the following recipients has been delayed” message
Given what happened with the donations scandal after the postal ballots went out, and the inherent advantage for PVs to older conservative voters, the PV data is not good enough I’d have thought to give the Tories victory. It might suggest that a Labour 3rd place is on the cards though, as Mike predicted.
Also, Home Secretary in “statistically normal” shocker. Gosh.
Where is Snowflake then? Presumably campaigning for Ms Smith to be strung up for her outrage?
49 Well, what was your prediction then…………..
BTW Got the answer 39
PV EXCLUSIVE NEWS **** PV EXCLUSIVE NEWS **** PV EXCLUSIVE NEWS ****
I can exclusively reveal to PB the nature of the PV in Ealing Southall. The Official Monster Raving Loony Candidate, PB’s very own John Loony, is set to mop up the pigeon vote completely !!
Don’t be pigeon-holed … Vote Loony !!
http://www.channel4.com/media/userpages/accepted/8543_apdstickernew.JPG
Re A Turfer.
Not sure how you would know that Mike - I get a new Ip address every time I reboot.
More tellingly, Southwell is in Nottingham - must be abig constituency.
I have just got back after a few days away - is it too late to enter the Competition?
Is it just me or do the posts on the site have a strange feel to them this morning?
“And I have to say, the press coverage, if read by LibDem waverers today (Guardian, Independent) may well squeeze their vote.”
I doubt it’s a prominent story in either of these papers, and I don’t think these two papers (combined circulation 700,000 nationally, in a country of 50,000,000 adults) will be widely read by voters in ES before they vote today.
Suppose turnout is 40,000, of which 36,000 are voting on the day.
I reckon that among these 36,000, about 500 copies of the Indy and Guardian are bought. Perhaps 20% of these voters will scour the paper and find the report on postal vote leaks - that 100. Of these, perhaps a third were planning to vote LD, and of these maybe half will switch to the Tories. That’s about 16 votes! Not much of a squeeze!
I stopped reading this bickering thread after the first few postings.
I don’t care anymore who wins the by-elections — I just want them over.
What I can’t understand is hwo some many casual observers seem to have such great insight into the minutae of the campaigns in Ealing, even those that live there.
Can anyonehelp me out here?
56 and the Independent (online) has a headline “Tories investigated over vote fraud” (from memory). That might move 3 or 4 voters in the opposite direction.
Anyway, there may be a sensational result. Lib Dems or Tories might be the beneficiaries. I don’t see much value in the market though.
but wouldn’t you feel sick if Lit wins by 16 votes!
58 - I agree. I am a partisan LD, but have never really pretended to know what is going on there, as I have not been near. Everybody who claims to have been there has posted things very positive for their party. So is everybody going to be a winner?
I still believe nobody will get more than 29%. I have entered the pb.com competition, but won’t say what I have predicted. Basically it’s largely guesswork.
Rennard has been fairly upbeat, but not massively so. When the Birmingham and Leicester by-elections were on the same night, he was very upbeat about Leicester (and we won)- less so about Brum (which we lost). Read into that what you want.
It would appear that the Tories have run a better by-election campaign than for years, and their by-election tactics are now approaching the levels of the Alliance 25 years ago, which were very successful. It could pay dividends.
Labour are the incumbents - and a split opposition may confuse the electorate and let Labour win.
Now… good people of ES. Vote early vote often!
Gwynfa, I couldn’t agree more. Read three posts and muttered to myself “what a bunch of children”.
I hate to say this but I read the comments on this site less and less as there’s more and more childish bickering over complete unknowns.
58. If it helps Yokel I can confirm that I don’t live there and I also haven’t a clue what the result will be.
For Andrea’s benefit I can also confirm that I haven’t been to an Ealing gym either, which would have obviously provided a clear insight into the result if I had.
62 - George - we’ve missed you; if/when you become an MP, will you post here as Nick P does? It would be interesting. (Stewart Jackson is an increasingly infrequent visitor)
Mike has advised there are other MPs who have posted here under assumed names, so if you did post would you do it as yourself or under another name?
Meanwhile …. Ben Russell of the “Independent” on the Sedgefield by-election :
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2782517.ece
A. Turfer - Anyone not see the pun in that?
61. I believe Rennard when he states that he believes they are in for at least a very good performance. Whilst he could be wrong because a lot can happen in a polling booth, I would suspect his educated guess is better than 99% of others even allowing for the the necessity of pumping things up to try to rally the troops and voters.
65 - not the most interesting or insightful article I have ever read.
Meanwhile II …. the cats are amongst the pigeons in Ealing :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2100341.ece
I’ve never really understood why everyone is so worked up about the “donation scandal” - I don’t think anyone will much care; particularly in the Asian community that makes up the majority of the electorate and in which it is customary to make warm noises to all the parties.
Grant Shapps, who is running the Conservative campaign in ES is ruthless in collecting postal votes. He personally signs up almost every Conservative pledge he canvasses; Welwyn Hatfield has one of the highest postal vote percentages in the country. A large proportion of the Conservatives total vote might have been by post.
47 - “I’m a Tory. I supported John Major in 1997 and Michael Howard in 2005. Now, however, I can’t bring myself to vote for the Tory Party led by David Cameron, which puts spin over substance, proclaims itself as the ‘heir to Blair’ and insults the electorate with gimmicks.”
This actually raises a serious point, in a convoluted way, with regard to opinion polls. If somebody really doesn’t like the government, might they say to a pollster that they were Labour at the last election, but are now Tory. By pretending they have moved over to the Tories (when are actually a Tory through and through), they may show their disapproval of the government doubly so.
Could this explain why the samples taken by pollsters always seem to have disproportionately many people who voted Labour last time round?
Meanwhile III …. The “Torygraph” says it’s becoming an Ealing comedy .. boom boom !!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/19/do1902.xml
re 50. I did not predict that Labour would come third. I suggested on Saturday that there was a greater than 8 percent chance that this would happen. All betting is about assessing the chances of something happening and comparing it with the odds
61 Yokel, I acknowledge Rennard’s electoral success in by elections. As to assessing his opinion on the numbers, well as I said yesterday, a man who spins the LD May 07 losses as progress is just a spinner.
73. What you assess that % chance at now. BTW Why is the predic comp now not open
In addition what’s happerned to the so called BY Election site. Not been updated for week
58 “What I can’t understand is how so many casual observers seem to have such great insight into the minutiae of the campaigns in Ealing, even those that live there. Can anyonehelp me out here?”
I think I might be able to, Yokel, if only a little bit.
This (i.e. ES) is a really weird By Election. Seriously, seriously weird. Despite the comparatively easy geography, the constituency is fragmented into numerous “villages” which are fairly small, and very clearly defined (similar to Glasgow, in that respect). Each village is clearly divided on racial and linguistic, as well as class lines; sorry, not enough knowledge to go into any accurate detail, but it is more complicated than simple Black/White, or Posh/Poor.
The area around Hanwell railway station looks like a set of drawings from an Enid Blyton book - little brick cottages, roses round the doors, perfect gardens. Stand on the station platform (Listed Building status, still painted in GWR shades of pink) and look westwards towards Bristol, and you can see the water-tower by Southall Station, a three minute ride away. And there the majority of males seem to be Sikhs, the majority of women seem to be young and the majority of whites seem to be East European. Over towards Ealing, the houses in the tree - lined avenues are a reminder of why Ealing used to be called “the Queen of the Suburbs”.
So it is perfectly possible to work in one area and get a distinctly different idea of how a campaign is going from the way one’s colleagues are getting on in the Ward next door. Any analysis is comparable to the old story about six blind men describing an elephant after touching different parts of it, and coming to very different conclusions.
By the way, for what it is worth, the Lib Dems will win.
For importantly from the Indy: “But stocking sales were worst hit, plummeting 50 per cent from £10m in 2002 to £5m last year, making up just 2 per cent of all hosiery sales.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article2782519.ece
As a former hosiery buyer for Sainsbury and John Lewis (at John Lewis I was called the Central Buyer Stockings - even though 90% of what we sold were tights) - this is a worrying trend.
Win or lose at E & S, I think our next manifesto should concentrate on saving the stocking!
Agree that this i a subject that should be treated extremely carefully. All parties are able to have observers present at the verification of Postal ballots, and AFAIK all major parties use this to check their support via sampling.
However, there’s a huge difference between doing that for internal campaign use and briefing the media on the results. In the past I’ve had inside information on PV samples at various by-elections, with both good and bad news for my own party. I’d never dream of briefing the media on them or posting them here (or betting on them), because I regard it the secrecy of the ballot as very important while the election is going on.
If it looks like people are doing this regularly, it would mean ROs would have to delay verification until after polls have closed, which would mean a Firday count, most likely.
63. Don’t get me wrong, I was of the view that Labour would likely hold and have been playing the odds back and forth between them and the Tories to small stakes. Its only in the last day or so that the Lib Dems have come into calculations.
That original analysis however was based on two things, 1. Labour had a thumping majority last time and with Gordon getting a reasonable ride as new PM and nto wanting a setback early Labour would work Ealing like nobodies business. Secoindly the Tories appeared to be really put the effort in then we had the defection business and so on.
What itw asnt based on was some mythical knowledge. I’m guessing as an outsider how the markets would play.
Meanwhile IV …. James Kirkup in the “Scotsman” on both by-elections :
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1121702007
Can those on all sides agree, that if our respective favourite does not win, we will NOT come out with the line:-
“We fought a good, honest campaign that went down very well on the streets of ES. Unfortunately, the X campaign was the dirtiest seen in a by-election for many years and was ultimately successful. It leaves a very bitter taste in the mouth, and politics is the real loser.”
Alternatively, if you do want to use the above para, please feel free to cut and paste it tomorrow morning.
74. Oh Rennard can be wrong but still how much is pumping things up and how much is based on a real sense that they’ll perform well? It’s best guess stuff again.
Having said that I would take his wrong estimation with more acceptance than mysteriously random postings on this forum. Those mysterious postings may get it right but its pure luck. Nodoubt if they get it right thety’ll be boasting about it.
There is a lot of spinning on here today!
1. If the PV’s had us behind the LD’s would say we would come in third.
2. If they had us neck and neck, they would still say we would come in third.
3. I suspect but may be wrong that if they had us ahead, the LD’s would still say we would come in third.
Now on to more substantive stuff. I have not been on the ground, but as an observation much of the bad things that have come about in the Lit campaign have happened to late to have full impact. They still may have some impact but it will depend.
Also, I do find it odd that people are prepared to get the hump with Cameron if we don’t do well, because of the amount he has invested in this by-election.
That is just daft. The only way to win by-elections is to invest in them. This is the first time it looks like we had any sort of machine. We will learn, there is no need for toys to be thrown out of prams.
Jack - is the Scotsman the first to report a sighting of the fabled Liberal Democrat Dead Russian?
“According to party workers, the Liberal Democrats have seized the opportunity of the Conservative troubles to mount a late surge(/i) in Ealing.”
Hopefully my italics.
A lot of Tory straw clutching at the PV figures.
Even if they are true (which I doubt) they amount to a Tory and Labour lead over the Lib Dems of around 200 votes - basically zero, when there are 30-40,000 votes to be cast today.
Jack - is the Scotsman the first to report a sighting of the fabled Liberal Democrat Dead Russian?
“According to party workers, the Liberal Democrats have seized the opportunity of the Conservative troubles to mount a late surge in Ealing.”
Hopefully my italics.
Better second time!
83 - I largely agree with you. With regard to Ming, I would say the results today should not have any bearing on the future of Ming. I doubt that he has been a major factor either way in the results, whatever they are. LD by-election campaigns are not like that.
Whatever the results, I look forward to a LD leadership campaign late next year. By then Ming will have done 2.5 years, and got the party internally in good order, and with a strong set of policies. But it will be time to move on!
87 Icarus. Worse both times !!
Leave the jokes to my feathered friends.
What do you think my wings are made of?
Well, whoever is spinning the PV’s is lying. Nobody knows what they show.
Right…let’s get stuck into this market then, stop spinning boys and put your money where your mouth is - anyone want £50 on the Tories @ 6.2?
90 Icarus. Ear wax !
86 - I think it may refer to Serge Gainsbourg, who was French (of Russian / Jewish extraction).
Re 88, SBS, Ming could be in trouble on the basis of looking for someone to blame for the porblems with the LD by-election machine.
However there are severe local factors so that would be, in the words of Boris, Phooey.
91. Eric, if its anything like Northern Ireland, people can gauge whats going on alright during validation. Thats not saying this story is correct but it is possible.
95 Any idea how many postal votes actually cast in Sedgefield at all
97. At Least one..I believe by a T Blair
98. But he’d actually have to have his primary residence there……..
Nick is wrong the PV total is only going to be 3000 or so according to detailed info posted by John Loony yesterday and at least some of those haven’t even been counted. Frankly I would give the Tory campaign a pat on the back for their PV total and suggest that the Labour constituency organisation is pretty poor which I think we know. Are the leaked figures accurate as regards the LD PVs or is there some spinning there? I’ve no idea. Betfair hasn’t budged in suggesting a fairly comfortable Labour victory but the great unknown is turnout: at a certain level the Labour majority is probably at risk. As to second place Nick has been suggesting, and not for the first time yesterday as he claimed, that the Tories are second based on conversations with Labour and Tory campaigners but none with LDs. I don’t feel reassured by Labour claims that we’re second; on the contrary they make me nervous. I also suspect that the Lit episode has damaged the Tory campaign; I find the arguments that it hasn’t tortuously unconvincing. Certainly both Labour and the LDs have been hammering away which suggests that they feel it’s resonating at ground level. That plus the fearsome Rennard’s excellent record on by election predictions( spinning afterwards as someone prayed in aid to the contrary is a different point) makes me veer towards the LDs second and best placed to gain the seat on a collapse in turnout if it happens. Labour are favourites though. If I’m wrong I will a) be delighted and b)happily tip my cap to Test, Rik et al.
Heard Nick Robinson on R4 this morning, he said there wouldn’t be an autumn election, ‘We’ve just had a phone call from a lady in Bristol who said sh’e heard there’s a hurricane on the way, don’t worry madam I can assure you there isn’t’ experts don’t you just love ‘em!
ES, what ever the result, its been so confused by local factors, its irrelevant anyway.
How do we reckon snowflake feels about our Home Sec taking drugs? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6905886.stm I’m pretty relaxed about it, it appears she had a “normal” university experience. Snowy, I know, has said that people that have taken drugs are effectively brain damaged so will she be calling for Jacqui Smith’s resignation given her crucial role in national security?
Re 100, “Frankly I would give the Tory campaign a pat on the back for their PV total and suggest that the Labour constituency organisation is pretty poor which I think we know.”
It may be poor, but it is the largest CLP in the land. Does not say much really for how well they can campaign does it?
Never mind all that. Why should anyone believe the figures anyway? They are clearly made up. But having the Tories investigated on polling day has never been a bad move, has it? It does suggest that Watson and Co believe they can tip some more people from Tory to Lib Dem without risking the win I suppose. Anyway over in by-election blog land apparently Tory Supporting hotheads are pretending that one of the candidates has hanged himself. Will Cameron stop at nothing? Police should investigate that matter too.
102 - as I’m in a betting mood, I would suggests the odds of this happening are about infinity/1.
99. Oh my god, in that case he’s a fraudelent vote.
Thats it… pack the whole show up.
99. Oh my god, in that case he’s a fraudelent vote.
Thats it… pack the whole show up.
98. Any idea who he voted for?
Re 101, Coldstone, “ES, what ever the result, its been so confused by local factors, its irrelevant anyway.”
The spinning begins already!
I take it that all losing sides can use that one whilst the winning side uses:
This shows taht teh British people and all ethnic groups support us!
O/T The law of unintended consequences will operate if the age limit on driving is raised to 18.
More will get a motorbike, on which the chances of dying are 30 times that of a car.
Why oh why don’t our politicians think through the consequences?
I don’t think Mike should worry about the supposed results of the postal votes appearing here, considering they’ve already been leaked and published elsewhere. Not sure on the strict legal position but every single blogger and moderator of an internet forum isn’t going to get their collars felt!
108. He followed Vera’s advice and voted for Phil, the local man
77… Icarus, this is terrible news. I have instructed my wife to take urgent action to support this vital British industry. Should I issue a press release?
Re 104, Chris Paul, do you still think that someone who was privately educated can’t be schools minister? If so, are you calling for Ed Balls to be moved?
103 - “It may be poor, but it is the largest CLP in the land.”
I wouldn’t read too much into that. It’s a very large seat - electorate 83,738 at the last election. I doubt if the membership as a percentage of the electorate is much higher than many other seats.
70 - you are absolutely right! The other thing that Shapps is a master of is collecting email addresses from residents and sending them regular campaign updates and responding to opposition attacks.
I have no doubt that he will have been doing this very effectively throughout the campaign “under the radar”. For obvious reasons I did not post anything about this until today (polling day) but i would be surprised if this did not have some impact.
I believe that in his own constituency Grant has over 10,000 email addresses in his list!
110 - I am all for raising the driving age, I’d raise it even higher for motorbikes…
However here’s another unintended consequence - for those 18 year olds who stayed on at school (and this government want everyone to stay on to sixth form), they’ll surely be in their “upper sixth” year and revising for A-Levels/IB/GNVQ or whatever at the same time they are trying to sit their test.
No he wouldn’t - he just can’t vote in more than one constituency on the same day.
110 - valid point. An actuary once explained to me why there is a spike in the differential death rates of boys and girls aged 16 and 17. In a word motorbikes.
116 - I thought his main skill was leaving dodgy messages on video sharing sites then coming up with weak excuses that only one person (Iain Dale) found convincing
Jon [113]- You’ve got it all wrong - Stockings are not for wives but for girlfiends! I take it all to mean that the British married man has stopped having affairs (probably for Health and Safety reasons).
118 - didn’t John Prescott once do that?
(You can of course vote in two different local authorities on local election day.)
girlfiends? I like the sound of that. Are you saying I am not liberal enough?
Benedict. No it doesn’t. I can only assume that a lot of Labour Party members in Southall are paper members only. More generally I suspect that the organisation in safe Labour seats is often poor. It’s a combination of complacency and probably demoralisation over the Blair years; Iraq war, more general discontent with the whole new Labour project among the grassroots and the steady loss of councillors which must have a demoralising effect. One can think of plenty of Tory seats in the late 80’s and 90s who were in a similar decrepit state when a by election suddenly came knocking.
The Tory candidate in Sedgefield doesn’t seem to like the LDs (from his blog):
“I think the Lib Dems have now over reached in their quest for support here. The sheer number of negative Lib Dem leaflets, with crude propaganda and no positive messages, that have been pushed through people’s letterboxes has definately put people off. For a so-called environmentally friendly party they’ve certainly used enough paper!”
but he prefers Labour to BNP
“In Sedgefield we noticed the fly posting and aggresive campaigning of the BNP. They have not been subject to any media scrutiny in this campaign and I am worried that voters will be ill informed about the more extreme and nasty elements of their politics. On a personal basis I would rather a voter voted Labour than BNP and I know my Labour opponent has the integrity to say he would rather a voter voted Conservative than BNP.”
[69] If Alice Thomson managed to find a tube station in Southall it’s more than Ken (or even Boris) could do - she should stand for Mayor pronto
[113] Does she take your instructions, Jon? If so, be afraid, be very afraid…
William Hill have cut the odds against a 2008 election from 16/1 to 8/1.
117 As a lecturer in an FE college I can assure you this is the case anyway - it’s far more important than their AS or BTEC etc courses.
We would probably do better to make adulthood 21 again but as I get older the age at which people should be counted as grown up keeps getting higher!
25 Thanks, Andrea. The content doesn’t suggest he is very confident - certain to come behind Greg Stone, and worried that the BNP might overtake him.
Clicking through to his MySpace account I see he only has 9 friends. So perhaps he has reason to fear the worst.
128 You mean 2007, StJohn! 2008 is still 5/1 - reasonable value, imo.
128 - it is an interesting point. The “age of maturity” varies hugely for different things. Though I am not sure that raising it to 21 for everything is the right answer.
We seem as a society to have settled on 16-18 being the band and that is probably right. Reducing the age of consent to 16 for all and raising the age when soldiers can be sent to a war zone both seem to me to be correct. However, we have a lethal cocktail in allowing 17 year olds to drive and also to drink and I support the Commons Transport Committee idea of raising the driving age (unsupervised) to 18 and a complete alcohol ban for new drivers. This would however have to be policed effectively to have any impact and I would like to see a wider use of the green “P” plates for provisional drivers!
131, a sensible post from Rik W, not spinning, and with only one exclamation mark. Wonders never cease.
Really boring on here today isn’t it!
102. I wonder whether this disclosure (It is said to be because someone in the media was on to her)is due to the Moral Compass thing - that Brown advocated?
There will be some victims down the line with that one i am sure.
Frankly i don’t really care what she did at University. Although i would say this my Hellrazing at University has put an end to any political career i may have wished to persue!!!
So if she get’s a bit of a bashing by some papers though luck!
I do think though that drug’s will have missed very few people in the next generations of parliamentarians. It just means they have led an normal existance in my opinion even if it was silly.
What i would say about the Home Sec. is she is on dangerous ground saying she would not do it now because it was illegal. It misses the point it was illegal then. I wonder whether she ever did mushrooms - If she smoked dope there is a good chance.
I still say get kids hammered for 3 days straight at the age of 12, with the worst tasting alcohol possible and let them feel the after effects.
I read recently that the greatest cause of death for 17-25 year old women was not breast cancer or abduction ….. but car crashes, where their boyfriend is the driver.
If labour have complained about figures that are wrong they will look idiotic, the figures must be right or Tom Watson and cronies really are crazy.
It will be interesting to see if the tories Bromley campaign (Cameron? What Cameron?) is less successful than this Cameron led one in ES. This is their true yardstick, does Cameron’s involvement help and are they getting better at by elections?
131: We don’t allow 17 year olds to drink at all do we? Irrespective of them driving or not!
Wouldn’t all driving instructors go bust if the age was raised? A year of no new business whilst waiting for 17 year olds to turn 18? Seems daft to me, pointlessly penalising the majority for the sins of the minority, like IDS’s wonderful 7p on a pint plan.
126 Given the squeeze on him this may not entirely be surprising.
136 Absolutely. If they do do better, it should silence Sean Fear who claimed anybody else but the locally run Bob Neill campaign would have been beaten. If they do do better, I would suspect that no CCP in a BY-Election situation will ever again be allowed to behave like Bromley’s mob. On Watson if they are right and he complained he was bonkers to compound it by doing it now. It helps the Tories and if he wanted to complain he could have done so tomorrow as a useful distraction. Who’s advising this guy…………
re 137, Jon “We don’t allow 17 year olds to drink at all do we? Irrespective of them driving or not!”
No, 17 years olds can drink. In fact I am not sure what the lower limit is, it certainly is below 12.
The limit to which you refer is the buying of alcohol.
I have noticed over the last few days of the ramping that ES is make or break for Cameron. Any Tory reading these types of comments is reasuured that Cameron is the right leader if political opponents are doing this. Just carry on! The non - Tory posters must really fear Cameron, who is after all head and shoulders above Brown and Ming.
Just look at PMQ’s yesterday even the Guardian Journalist on sky said he “won”. Cameron is very good indeed and i remember what it was like when we had turkey’s before like IDS. I think Brown is a turkey but that will not surprise people. I am just surprised the press have not hammered him more for all the “gaffes” he and his team have made since he took over.
135 Augustus, quite correct. But better your daughter is in a car than on the back of a motorbike.
The “no alchohol” limit for young drivers makes more sense as there seems to be fewer unintended consequences. Getting a licence is a lot harder these days so it may encourage the right behaviour.
I also read somewhere that the problem of young drivers is the raised risk in their first year of driving after passing the test. This risk was there whether they passed at 17, 18, 19, 20 etc.
Every driver has to have a “first year” no matter what age that starts at.
81 - You can’t say that SBS because, to tell the truth, the campaign has been disgusting and politics has been the real loser. To try and stifle that opinion isn’rt very useful! I will post that truth and hang what anyone else thinks.
133 “Although i would say this my Hellrazing at University has put an end to any political career i may have wished to persue!!!”
It is hard to put one´s finger on it, but there is something rather frightening about this sentence.
130. Thanks Ptp. You’re quite right. I meant 2007. Apologies for inaccurate post. Yes I’ve taken the 5/1 on 2008. Good value, as identified here yesterday by Caveman
134. Heavily watered down wine at the dinner table has been available to our lads from a young age. Some times they would have some - usually not, but there certainly was no mystery insofar as alcohol is concerned in our household. The eldest, 19 and 18, have the odd glass of wine or beer and now and again pop out to the pub with their mates at the weekend. Probably because of my Italian roots ( we make a few hundreds litres of wine a year for family consumption ) the lads view drinking as a social activity and act accordingly.
101 - Bingo, the first comment which uses something from my ‘ready to use list of excuses’ as posted yesterday!
140 Heard anything more on Sedgefield then………………
143. What is frightening other than me having John Prescottitess???!!!
117 - Stonch, in the lower sixth year they are sitting their AS levels so there’s no real difference there. I’m torn on this one, regarding safety it might help but it’s infantilising those who shouldn’t be and I fall on the side of keeping it as it is.
146 the first of many, from all sides!
Re 146, UKPaul, Are we playing bingo on that one?
Who will be the first to get a full house?
136 and 138 CCHQ were intimately involved in the Bromley & Chislehurst campaign. The campaign was certainly not left up to the local party (although candidate selection was).
151 - We should just put a numbered list at the top of the thread and then people can say something like ‘I’ll take excuse number three and excuse number six as a supplementary’. Makes things so much easier.
And the b&c problems were very much candidate related; Cameron was cut out of literature and did not visit.
Meanwhile V …. Over at Mrs Dale’s diary the latest story is - “Where Gove Leads, Balls Will Follow”
I couldn’t have put it any better Iain !!
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
152 Of course they were providing support, but the candidate, the themes chosen, and the near total airbrushing of Cameron from their campaign literature were all locally driven. Can’t help but feel your desperation to exculpate the muppets responsible for your near car crash is driven by your own hostility to your own Party Leader….
154 Test. Wrong !!
http://www.bob4bromley.com/getfile.php?selectid=9&type=local
&