PBC By-Election Competition: the predictions
July 19th, 2007Who’ll have the most to smile about once the results are declared?
With 74 entries received before the competition closed, the breakdowns are as follows:
Sedgefield
Predicted to win: Labour 70, Lib Dems 4, Conservatives 0
Average vote shares: Lab 45.8, LD 27.2, Con 16.0
Southall
Predicted to win: Labour 54, Conservatives 10, Lib Dems 10
Average vote shares: Lab 35.3, LD 29.0, Con 26.8
JohnLoony average: 238 votes
The full listing of entries is available here:
If you don’t have Excel, these links may be helpful:
Finally, the latest from the betting markets is here.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Paul Maggs runs The Election Game - click on the logo to email for more information.
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Now received 3rd email. To 6pm Labour tellers still reporting Conservatives ahead, according to senior local party activists. ‘Late evening voters should pull it back to Labour.’ Lib Dems a respectable 3rd place.
1. Paul T, please cut out the Astroturfing. No one here is taking any notice of it whatsoever and you’re just making yourself look foolish.
Rather harsh of someone to put JohnL as low as 12 votes. Will be very surprised if he drops as low as double figures.
Sedgefield turnout report from BBC Look North: Less than 50% (less than 33,670). Therefore this would mean as a base: Lab 19,825, Con 4,845, Lib Dem 4,003. I hope that helps with people’s calculations as to how the seat might declare. No reports from Southall so far.
2 - He also got a 975 vote prediction, a little too much on the generous side I feel.
3 Hang on does that factor in Reg Keys support from last election, which is another 4,000 right. So assuming the Lib Dems gett 99.% of that, then a lot will hinge on how big the Conservative squeeze actually is
1. Paul T, that would mean that it is a two-way race between Conservatives and Labour. Could be a sensational result. First Conservative by-election win in over 25 years.
Also seeing off the Lib Dems in such a dramatic fashion could put Menzies leadership in jeopardy.
Brown’s honeymoon would be well and truly over. Now more like a hangover!
I cannot imagine the Tories or the Lib Dems getting less than 5,000 votes in Sedgefield.
8. There are indications from Sedgfield on the previous thread that the BNP are going to get a four digit vote tally. That would certainly make sense considering on how many Labour voters the BNP can draw upon. In Barking and Dagenham Labour voters switched en masse to the BNP!
as my entry failed to arrive
for what it matters, here’s what I tried to send:
Sedgefield: Lab 46, LD 32, Con 10
Southall: Lab 30, LD 30, Con 30
JohnLoony: 282
7 What?! You mean that separately or combined. If former od course the Tories can hit lower, they barely got that in 2005, add in lower turnout andin addition big tactical cvoting as even th loyalest Conservatives in Sedgefield know the score and why not exactly
Anyone else think the Conservatives might be driven into fourth in Sedgefield by the BNP?
Betfair market certainly getting very interesting (albeit small liquidity). No need for any distortion of the market any more.
From what I saw when I was there at the weekend I fear a respectable BNP vote. Tory vote eminently sqeezable as you would expect for a third party. But the new right vote of UKIP and BNP pretty unsqueezable. Tories comming 4th not impossible.
11 Luke. No. The Tory campaign in Sedgefield has been bad but not that bad.
9 - Andrea - your Southall predictions - you coward!
11 - Wouldn’t be at all surprised.
I see only Rik and myself have Labour coming third in Southall. Oh well - so much for that prediction…
Let’s not go crazy, I find all this hard to believe
Libsfought a strong campaign. Sincere kudos to any PBer from any party who got stuck in to help their side
ukpaul - That 975 prediction was mine. I used the random number generator on my calculator. Could’ve been anything between 0 and 999.
Umm.. I think the average of these predictions are a bit off.
We will se,
PaulT As Galloglass indicates some of us have worked elections and we think that is rubbish.
Who do you think will be next Labour leader? Perhaps its an even four way contest. Reid, Milliband, Clarke, and Darling. Its possible Staw could also put his hat in the ring.
On the Lib Dem side, its an open field, although Huhne did very well last time, so would have a big advantage at the next contest. Could Simon Hughes give it another try? Clegg, Laws and Cable would also be in a strong position. Any pointers on this?
11. luke my friends who have been in sedgefield and hate the bnp so they are likely to be paraniod - but when they say that they are almost tempted to go round to the tories on their sheets with labour rosettes on saying look we’re labour but you need to vote otherwise you finish 4th to the bnp means they must be worried for a reason.
Like i say - i just hope they are paraniod
I’ve not put any predictions in, but for what it’s worth I’m guessing Labour will hold Sedgefield comfortably, Lib Dems a good but unresounding second, Tories far behind them on third and not too far from the BNP in fourth. That’ll give both Labour and the Lib Dems some good, spinnable material there. Harder for the Tories, but their fate really depends on the Southall result.
As for Southall, I’m getting the feeling that it’s going to be really close and unpredictable, but that Labour will *just* hold on. However, it might only be by a few hundred votes. The Tories will come in second and the Libs just behind them in third.
Tories will get f*cking pasted tonight in ES, Labour will be the victorious!
Re 22, Not a fan of my party then?
When do the polls close, 9pm?
Do we know how turn out is going yet?
Labour seem to be steadily drifting in ES, almost up to evens.
Re 24, Test, 10PM
ES now a little livelier on Betfair with £2K of matched bets over the past hour.
Labour look like they’re in big trouble.
Post 21 seems like a reasonable prediction to me - that is, about the rseults I would expect. But this has been a highly unpredictable by-election, and even at this late stage, anyone could win - and anyone who claims they know who will is being economical with the truth, to put it nicely.
The past few threads have seen a ridiculous amount of ramping, but I suppose that’s what happens with every by-election… the good thing is that no one here seems to be taking the rampers’ claims particularly seriously!
29. Don’t think so Alex. I strongly suspect Labour will hold both seats thanks to the ‘Brown Bounce’.
Benedict White - no nasty evil tories! But i am neutral!
29. Well the cabinet’s gone to pot.
20 The Fascists have a tendency thrive in safe Labour seats alas, and with mass tactical voting on the cards from the usual Conservatives in Sedgefield, it is something that can all too easily happen
It’s Scally again with one of her amusing and hard to spot Tarquins, Benedict
LibDem odds crash to 2.7 - a 40% reduction in past 30 mins!
How could we have got ES so wrong? I think we were looking at other past by-elections without actually bothering to look at what was happening in ES. Labour’s defeat is more to do with bad campaigning then ineffective leadership.
all the parties are pretty close now, makes it quite interesting! when was the last time a by-election had 3 likely winners?
36 - last price matched 3.2……hactually
29 - It was a comment based purely on the betfair market.
peter the p you thought Labour were value at 1.8. How about evens? The way Betfair’s going it could look like Andrea’s 30 30 30 by 10pm. And this of course may bear no relationship to the actual result!
Just want it to be over now, so we can discuss the results.
The ramping is daft, but endearing. I quite like all the first time posters popping up saying “I’m married to/sleeping with/am Ming/Dave/Tom Watson/JohnLoony and they’re telling me it’s all over/all to play for/all gone quiet, but we can all be certain that Labour/Tories/Ming are in 1st/2nd/3rd/last place/dead”.
At this stage it is clear that there is little solid info likely to come out of any campaign. Once the tallying up is done between 2200 and 2230 we might get some idea. And then once boxes start getting opened we’ll get a few whispers - providing it is clear which boxes is being verified (not always clear in my experience if the box is numbered and not named).
In the meantime I’d go and have dinner, mow the grass, etc. Whatever you do, don’t feed Mark Senior’s betting position - he’s doing nicely already!
42 OI Robin , I am doing nicely tonight in little doses up to £ 60 minimum Green now .
Labour matched at evens
38. Brecon & Radnor, 1985
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnor_by-election%2C_1985
or in Northern Ireland, North Down, 1995
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Down_by-election%2C_1995
42 Was greener earlier, but got nervous. Am neutral on anything but Lit, and win the princely net sum of £3.27 if he pulls it off.
Think I have been a bit busier than you at work today…!
41 Well it depends where you’re starting from, Blue Moon, but given a blank sheet, yes, I would say evens is pretty good value.
How good it’s looking tomorrow, who knows?!
Fascinating and very exciting. The betting suggests it’s going to be close but no real clue yet as to the stronger challenger to Labour. Hope its the LDs for my book.
44 That was me LOL .
46 Off to cook my dinner now so no bets/lays are mine at the moment .
46. Robin Wiggs. Hope you didn’t spend too much time building up that book of yours!
50 stjohn - not long - I’m clearly too busy at work! It’s the total of 5 bets over the past week. It’s the first time I’ve laid a bet, so I’m just working through the logic with small bets.
I read some of PtP’s posts about £300 bets with a mixture of admiration and anxiety!
I think I get the theory now (thanks to 2 years on this site) - but clearly you need to be very quick off the mark with some of the “free money” posts on here, and I don’t yet have the balls….
Fun though!
Betfair odds mean nothing, absolutely nothing!
Tories were 7/1 when Rik and I both knew 5 cllrs had defected. If betfair punters knew anything they would not have been.
Don’t look at them and read Tory victory, the market knows nothing.
I do not think Ming will see many more PMQ’s, never mind jokes about trap doors.
I think it will be a case of ‘oow – shut that door’ on his way out of the leadership. I think Ming will be Brown’s first victim. Even if that Cameron guy wins ES – It means f*ck all to me anyway but I am neutral anyway.
Bizarre that a Tory supporter should be dismissing the Betfair market when it is indicating the best chance of a Tory by-election gain in a generation!
its not only the market that knows nothing Test, for a bloody expert, i’d have thought you’d have known what time polling stations close.
51. Yes great fun Robin. You are very sensible to start out with small bets while you learn the process. Good luck!
lol
Remember Dunfermline, as I say why were we 7 -1 the night 5 cllrs defected it means sod all
alex. Test is being thoroughly sensible. I’m more pessimistic than Test but really no one should be shocked if anyone comes first or anyone comes third. It’s that kind of extraordinary by election. I would guess by 10 each Party ought to have a rough idea of what their percentage share is going to be and can have a fair guess as to the position into which that will put them. 35 is probably a winning number 30 should guarantee second and 25 looks like third but who knows.
I never knock up that late. Don’t claim to be an expert. Sometimes I know stuff. Not today, no idea how we are doing
It’s true that no one really knows the result, but by probably over 90% of those who are going to vote have done so, so it’s probably fair to assume that meaningful leaks should start to emerge around …..now! Always assuming, that is, that there is any discernible difference between the parties.
ES - Labour hardening over the past 10 minutes
61 they didn’t in Dunf or did they?
If they did, bet fair ignored them
62. Not surprising, around evens was way too good for many to resist I susopect.
60 - Make your mind up. One moment the market means nothing and Tories are certain victors, the next you don’t have a clue.
Luckily I posted my emotion plus what wld be good/bad in the last thread
A close second would be bloody outstanding
Alex think you better reread my comment
I actually said the market means nothing, DON’T take betfair odds to indicate Tory victory
I have consistently predicted strong second with outside chance of taking the seat.
But that was based on a hunch, I know nothing
ES Labour now matching at 1.65
67 - Well considering they’re 3-1 against I don’t think anyone would be doing that.
68 It’s still pretty light trading though, PfP. If there were any hard info out there, one of the contenders would have been backed off the boards.
May I, on behalf of The Punting Party, use this post to ask everybody to just calm down a bit?
Thanks.
68. ES Labour were 1.33 earlier today Peter. The price is shortening but I don’t think you could call it yet.
70. Are you sure about that request Peter..you know..thriving in confusion, chaos and panic?
Lord Rennard concedes that is likely to be in third place. He thinks Labour will be a close second and the Tories in front by about 1,000.
http://www.ealinglibdems.org.uk/news/000151.html
If the Tories don’t take Southall and come a close second in Sedgefield they’re toast.
The Libs must at least knock Labour into third in Southall, and win Sedgefield or Ming is finished.
As long as Labour avoid coming third in either seat, then it has to be considered a good evening for them.
69 I was going by the tone of comments on this thread, thought they had us ahead! Heh.
70 Most of the change in Labour down to 1.65 was down to me . I backed what there was above 1.7 then laid it at 1.65 . Only £ 1 profit but it all counts .
Sorry Yokel, it does my head in.
If I ever catch one of those Astroturfers, there’ll be blood on the screen, I can tell you.
lol
Lord Rennard concedes that Nigel Bakhai is likely to be in third place. He thinks Labour will be a close second and the Tories in front by about 1,000.
http://www.ealinglibdems.org.uk/news/000151.html
Sorry typo
76 Proud of you, mate!
err no he doesn’t
Mark Senior, you do take account of Betfair’s 5% profit commission?
I thought recent experience suggests that betfair is a pretty unreliable guide
79. Why are you a tit? Isn’t it past your bedtime?
71 What’s your current position on ES stjohn? - After the Deputy Leader debacle, it’s time you had a winner
71 What’s your current position on ES stjohn? - After the Deputy Leader debacle, it’s time you had a winner
79. Does he? We reading the same thing?
82 I pay a little under 5% but even so that is only on the profit not on the stake .
85,86 Sorry for the “double” - Mike, why is it now taking 10-15 seconds to register a comment whereas previously it used to be almost instantaneous?
87. It is a link to the page down the bottom. I have had about 10 pints today and so I am feeling a bit forgetful!
I actually ended up with a very small profit on the DL Peter. On ES today I laid Labour at 1.35 and then backed them this evening at 2.0 so felt very pleased with myself. But my net position at present is neutral Labour, -£108 Tories and + £368 LDs. So I’m disappointed to see the LDs drifting out currently.
How about you?
Came in after 9 hours on the phone - I’ll share it honestly, make of it what you will. The main Ealing operation was on the ground, so in the central office we just got the list of uncontacted people for one last try to reach them during the day. Most were out, of course; of the remainder, they split about a third each between Labour (though wasn’t always sure they’d understood the question, anti-Labour (Tory and LibDem, no clear trend) and dunno or communications difficulties. The one thing that was really obvious was that all the main parties were trying to storm the seat by brute force - people were saying they’d had 2-3 calls from all three parties. People with Indian names were overwhelmingly Labour; Sikhs and Muslims were heavily divided three ways; non-ethnic voters mostly Tory or LD. Conclusion? Beats me.
A simpler story in Sedgfield, where we were asked to do first knock-up in the morning and second knock-up in the evening. This was all of voters who had said at some point (in a few cases going back to 1996) that they were Labour. About 70% of those we reached claimed to have voted Labour in the end, 10% had switched (a few to Tories, a few to LDs, others simply not saying), and 20% were abstaining or unsure. Given the huge starting majority this looks like enough to win, though majority obviously well down.
Half an hour ago we ran out of people to call from the central lists, and called it a day.
As I, ahem, predicted in 61, the market is now really moving. As someone once said..”They think it’s all over”
73 - Stench / Stonch - surely a ramp to get a good price. The link says nothing of the sort.
91 stjohn I am: Labour +£80 Tories -£70 LibDems -£60
90. Aye you’ll need to help me locate it. In the absence of any ability to specifically link to it, just point for me.
79 is Scally, not Stonch
I really WISH mike would stop her using 28 handles at once
She never denies it and it’s just not funny.
TROLL
C’mon Nick Palmer, give us a prediction for ES!
I am Labour + £16, Tory +£23, LD +£140! spent far too much time getting there though!
92 Nick is your mate Tom Watson as popular in the party as he is with posters on this site?
Finished my betting ( I think ) Lab + 67 Con + 58 LD + 61 Others + 2
o/t ‘Mock the Week’ suggests that Boris, as London Mayor, would create a London Confusion Zone
101 Some feat Mark!
Just looked at the prediction entries , mine seems to have disappeared into the ether - never mind .
What is certainly true and bit surprising is that there has been trading on the seat markets… Labour continue to climb and the best Tory bid is now 263… and there isn’t any decent bid above 255.
LibDems unchanged.
101 That looks a very nicely played hand, Mark. Well done!
Betfair market seems to have ground to an abrupt halt.
PtP whats your betting range?
Labour odds tumbling
Labour now matching at 1.38
108 ? Sorry. For what, Gallo?
Assumed you’d covered various positions on betfair like mark senior.
92.
“Half an hour ago we ran out of people to call from the central lists, and called it a day.”
and of course every penny of each and every one of those phone calls will be appearing on the relevent election expense returns, oh yes!
polska: ES result GUESS - narrow Labour win (1000 votes, say) over Tories, LDs about 3000 further back. But it’s not based on anything more than what you’ve seen here from everyone including me. The absence of LD victory or near-victory claims is striking - yes they might be trying for a stealth win, but total silence is unlikely if they think they’ve done it, sincer they need to show momentum to get tactical votes. I think the Tories hope they’ve won but don’t know; Labour think we’ve won but aren’t sure.
I’ve just come in from a couple of hours driving round the Ealing Southall constituency. I’ve always enjoyed visiting Southall, and had quite a few private students in the area, and the end of the campaign seems to be in vibrant good humour, with lively knots around the polling stations, particularly on Western Road, and cars from all parties touring with loudhailers. I do hope there are no allegations of malpractice, as it looked so like competitive democracy in the best of action, and in a variety of languages.
A few observations: the word Conservative did not appear to be used by the numerous cars broadcasting “vote Tony Lit, vote Number Seven” (not a reference to The Prisoner, I think); however very few Lit posters up, or Lit-up posters, and I feel he will finish third, and will do well to improve on the C percentage last time. I saw two Respect cars nearly collide head on in Johnson Street (not a big road), so they would seem to have a presence. By contrast, things appeared very quiet in the predominantly white ‘Ealing’ wards.
Who will win overall? Labour are favourites, but I don’t see them far ahead. And I never ever underestimate the Lib Dems in byelections.
113: bearing in mind the gargantuan spending limits for by-elections, I doubt if my day’s worth of calls are going to be a problem!
116: Not your Commons phone tho i hope
Lab & Libs still vibrating up and down marginally on betfair. I assume thats down to people just covering their margins then?
LDs edging ahead of Cons on betfair… ramp ramp!
Lab still miles clear though.
117 - no, Labour HQ in Victoria St. MPs are pretty careful not to use the Commons phone for canvassing.
Can’t see in meaning anything for another hour or so and they begin sorting the boxes though Jon.
blank post - just to get rid of that “as himself”…
115 When are your promised Doughty Street Programs
Well I guess most of the key activists will be packing up now and may have access to the internet… Tories are smacked out to 9 now.
Galloglass.
Sorry, wasn’t sure what you meant. Naturally I’m still betting but the current position is Lab £513, Con £190, LD £282. However that includes the winnings from my ‘what happens first to Gordon’ bets with Hills. If Con or LD win, it triggers a win of £620. If Lab win, the bet is still open, although you’d have to say the £130 I staked will probably be lost as it’s hard to see another by-election coming up for some time. Mentally, I’ve knocked it off the £513 for a Labour win.
I’ll probably trade off some of that Labour profit, depending on the prices, but we’ll see how things develop.
I tried to get on at 9 and it’d gone, back to 6. That would’ve been free money.
Labour now trading 1.3
Nick Palmer This doesn’t necessarily measn a thing but you’re quite wrong to say the LDs haven’t made bold claims. MC is personally on the record testerday claiming the Tories are in ‘freefall’ and that it’s neck and neck between Labour and the LDs . Earlier Rennard hung his hat on figures showing them within striking distance of you at the weekend.
123 Punter, if you mean the regional surveys of constituencies, you’d better ask Iain Dale, as I recorded two of them some time ago … the half hour on the Almanac was put up on the Doughty Street site in May. Thanks for your continued interest!
Why have the Betfair odds changed - We don’t know any more than we did at 7pm.
130 - horsetrading
130 On that logic the share markets would only move a few times a month!
BREAKING NEWS NO CASH FOR HONOURS CHARGES BBC
BBC News No charges in Cash For Honours
OT no charges over cash for honours on No 10 aides.
BBC reporting NO charges in the cash for coronets scandal.
Sky News: CPS decision on Cash for Honours to be revealed tomorrow morning.
cash for honours CPS decision tomorrow morning
Ok thats polls closed. Am going to be (very) upset if Rik W gets to say ‘I told you so’
Will the drug revelations have hurt Labour at all today?
o/t: Sky saying announcement tomorrow that no-one to be charged in Cash-for-Honours…
Leaked by Lab b/c of bad results?
As the polls close both Tories and LDs way out….. 12 trading for Tories and LDs 10
Test
Oops well if I win it’ll be a miracle as I seem to have by Sedgefields and Ealing Southalls mixed up. Did I really do them that way round?
142 - not quite that high but both have moved out noticeably.
Funny how BBC left it until 10pm
Or (covering arse as pundit) leaked by Lab to compound great results and stregthen bounce?
They have traded there Iain sadly.
Well I have bet a bit more on a Conservative win, so my book is no longer all green but it is much better than earlier today!
So if you win in ES Rik - how much will you win?
Conservatives now at 8s, LDs at 9s, Labour unmoved around 1.25
No charges in cash for peerages say the BBC.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6907594.stm
The wash is white.
150 - Several hundreds but not saying more! I dont have the spare cash to bet big lol
149 - that post doesn’t make sense
153 Ah, but you can afford to send me that tenner you owe me, Rik?!
Thanks for reminding me! Lol.
154 - It does make sense! Earlier today I won big if Cons won but had a medium liability if they didnt. I then got it to an “all green book” but will small amounts every which way.
Now I have bet a bit more on a Cons win and have big winnings if Cons win but with small liaibility if we dont!
Does that make sense?
155 - I dont owe you ANY tenner. I declined your bet!
Nice try though!
Right come on, anyone got any rumours from the count(s) yet? We need information!
Won’t be any info worth having until after 11 me thinks. Neither of these seats are what you call ’speedy counters’.
Big changes in the odds on Betfair in the Cons favour!
Two likely Labour wins.
I think I’ll be in bed before the results are announced.
157 Not the bet, you dummy! The Book Launch Party!!!
You’re the only one who hasn’t paid. Get it to me quick and I promise not to tell anybody.
Been out breaking my new bike in (got it from Cycle Surgery in the end). For the record, the real me doesn’t think the Tories will get pasted in Southall, I think they’ll do very well, possibly even come second, but nonetheless won’t get any kudos because they set themselves up for a fall.
I see I’ve had an impersonator tonight, and that Will L is back to his pillar-biting loonery and posting under different names in sad attempts to ramp.
bluemoon - ah, I missed Ming’s comments. The LDs here including our host have been notably restrained.
(No) cash for honours - I’m delighted for the people who were unfairly accused, but as with Hutton, I presume that those who detested TB will scream whitewash: the days when independent investigation convinced entrenched cynics are gone, if they ever existed. Nick Robinson’s second report was odd - he was brought back to say much the same thing again, but this time round stumbled several times in saying it.
161 Yokel. Ditto …. what side of the political bed do you want tonight ?!?!
162 - oh blimey!! Can you email me ur address again?!
159 - Yeah I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek about it anyway. I was hoping though that someone would have some tittle-tattle from the count, guess we’ll have to wait…
Was a rather bad impersonation though Stonch. Your ‘admirer’ has been at it all evening…
165. Er my politics are the same as Angelina Jolie’s so…
Just got on to see rumours on Sky about no charges over the cash for honours events. All I can say is ‘it’d better not be true’.
Politicians are viewed as scum by many people and if we allow them to get away with it this time then they’ll be viewed as worse than scum. Just as the Butler report wasn’t believed outside of a few labour politicians people won’t believe this. This was the chance to make them pay and, frankly, I was prepared to give the government some slack as long as they did pay. If they don’t then they are going to face one hell of a series of attacks, when criminals get away with crimes in broad daylight then anger rises and this will be the case here.
No quarter from me either, if nobody paid the price for this then the benefit of the doubt will no longer be given.
Remember, politicians are distrusted and often hated, what this will do is make you hated and distrustwed even more., If you’ve saved your skins now you’ve paid a heavy, heavy price.
Game on.
(and have a good evening)
Breaking News - Green Party could win in Ealing with 17% of the vote.
166 LOL! I wasn’t really bothered Rik, but if you don’t pay me, you may have to put up with me teasing you again.
I’ll email you tonite.
40% turnout in s
sedge turnout at 40% so says sky news
Isn’t it exciting eh.
Proper politics. Tories street fighting, hopefully learning about modern Britain while they’re at it. Labour feeling vulnerable.
And then this no charges for cash for honours thing comes along and makes everyone feel cynical again.
174. bad news for Labour. I was expecting a 15% drop in t/out. That looks like 22% down…
176 Reckon my Hills bet is safe though, Rod!
176 Do I have hope for my 20/1?
We have two threads on the go. Mike, can we have a new one.
Lib Dem odds on Betfair are now 10 !
My entry failed to get on as well, even though I sent off the form to the e-mail address required, with the attached file on there in excel format with the result filled in (double checked). Shame, but here would have been my predictions anyway:
Sedgefield:
Con 17.3
Lab 48.2
Lib Dem 24.5
Southall
Con 26.2
Lab 34.3
Lib Dem 31.5
John Loony number of votes: 117
180 lib dems 12s now
Re 162, Peter the Punter ” Not the bet, you dummy! The Book Launch Party!!!
You’re the only one who hasn’t paid. Get it to me quick and I promise not to tell anybody.
”
Could you tell Rik W that for a small consideration I won’t mention it either
Newsnight saying Lib dems are close second in ES
Newsnight saying Lib dems are close second in ES
183 Benedict “Could you tell Rik W that for a small consideration I won’t mention it either :)”
You mean it isn’t on your blog yet? You do still have a blog, don’t you?
My prediction is
Sedgefield:
Lab 44
LD 36
Con 13
Ealing Southall
Lab 32
LD 34
Con 24
he he!
Interesting timing on the cash for honours news.
Could it be looking to drive bad results of the front pages?
Grant Shapp is downplaying massively on News 24 - so guess that whatever happens, the Tories don’t have Southall.
189 - agree with that, he was playing up having 5 cllrs as the big move forward from the campaign, he wasn’t very “up” for an “up” type of character.
Re 186, Robin, “You mean it isn’t on your blog yet? You do still have a blog, don’t you?”
Shh.. I do try to keep it quiet
My understanding of what Newsnight said in from the count was that the Liberal Democrats had surged in the last couple of days and could get second, I did not take it as a very certain prediction of second.
But I have no idea on the result.
Where are you Mike. For goodness sake can we have a new thread. The site is like a snail.