Will Gord be saying thanks to Tom tomorrow?
July 19th, 2007
Does Watson’s campaign approach work?
This is Tom Watson - the Labour MP for West Bromwich and campaign manager in Ealing Southall who has a very personal approach to campaigning - he gets personal.
Rather than focus on policy or issues his big idea is to find what’s perceived as a weakness in the character of the opposition candidate he most fears and then attacks and attacks it.
At Birmingham Hodge Hill in July 2004 he sought to destroy the Lib Dem challenger by making Labour single election idea the fact the their opponent worked for a mobile phone company which was then involved in controversial issues over the location of masts.
The problem with such an approach is it involves repeating your opponents name time and time again. It makes clear to those wanting to give a bloody nose to Labour which party you fear, boosts the name recognition of the main opponent you most fear and reinforces opposition supporters in their desire to vote
But does it work? In the very low turnout election at Hodge Hill Labour’s vote dropped by 27.4% and the Lib Dems went up by 26.1%. This is one of the biggest LAB>LD swings on record. True - Labour saved the seat but with such a massive swing against it you could hardly call it a vindication.
If the leaked postal vote tallies from today’s election are in the right ball park then Watson will have failed big time. For if the Tories come second, from third place in 2005, and there’s a significant LAB>CON swing it will be David Cameron who is claiming victory. Will Gordon be saying “Well done Tom”.
Latest by election betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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Interesting thoughts Mike, and I see why you would like Tom to get a bloody nose on this one.
For the sheer entertainment value of it I would like Labour to come third as that really would wipe the smile off Tom’s smug face!
Is he as nice as he looks?
Isn’t he aiming this week to win another Open Championship at Carnoustie ??
Re 2, Sean, no, probably nicer but that is not saying much
(if we are getting personal as I understand he does)
I don’t do personal attacks but in Watson’s case I’ll make an exception, especially as it’s his modus operandi. The man is scum, pure unalduterated scum, there is a special place in hell reserved for politicians like him. If I was in the labour party I would want him drumeed out ASAP as he besmirches the name of the good people he comes into contact with.
Re 5, Ukpaul Have you got any more information on the mans charactor?
5 UkPaul, get off the fence - tell us what you really feel.
“Ultimately, CCHQ always calls the shots however. They were happy for the campaign to be run as it was, because they expected an easy victory.”
Truly you must really be seething at Cameron to come out with this Mr Fear. The world and his dog knows Cameron would not have selected Bob Neill, that Cameron would have had his brand owning the campaign if the Local Party had been in almost open defiance. Your pieces are some of the best written commentary ever, so why you are coming out with this stuff amazes
Re 7, Jonathan, you that that is the problem with these liberal leaning types, fence sitters the lot of them
had *not* been
OT Shocking..truly shocking…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6906105.stm
Thanks to the lovely Slugger O Toole website for highlighting this.
I bet George Galloway dreams of such an accolade…..
3. Showing yer age there Jack….mind you he has put on about 5 stine since the last time I saw him on TV…
Watson has one goal, a Labour win.
Was he also responsible for Labour’s Hartlepool campaign and the attacks on Jody Dunn the LD candidate there?
7 - It’s just that I don’t like people who use personal details to play politics, it doesn’t matter what party he’s in. My dislike of many journalists is for the same reason. I look at people like Brown, David Miliband and so on (and our own Nick Palmer) and the contrast to vermin like Watson is vast. He does the labour party no favours.
I’ve spoken to a number of people involved in the hodge hill byelection in the West Mids(though not Tom himself) .
The general view/myth amongst labour ranks is that Hodge hill stands out as the first time the LD’s were played at their own byelection game and that that is why Labour held the seat and the imposing Rennard machine was stopped.
Dunfermline is seen as a loss because they did not do this and there were problems with the local scottish campaigners ( remember this is often Brummie Labour I’ve spoken too !)
The personalised approach is Viewed as a Lib Dem tactic . The tories failure in byelections is seen to be in some part because they haven’t taken this route when competing with the LD’s.
Basically its a copying of the LD winning formula ( or at least a man to man marking of it )
On Topic:
Politicians wonder why turnout falls!
14 I agree re. personal attacks. Some of the attacks on Brown from his political opponents (inside and outside the party) were totally out of order last year. People were really out to destroy Brown personally and they still couldn’t beat him.
I would single out George Osbourne in particular as a nasty piece of work who made high profile attacks on Brown (the autism jibe for example). He certainly hasn’t got an economic policy yet. Charles Clarke did himself no favours at all either.
In the long run, personal abuse comes back to get you. Osbourne will get his comeuppance.
I think the vicious leaflet that shocked even hard-nosed Michael Crick calling Lit a Playboy could do a lot more harm than good for Labour in a place like Southall.
Lits so-called ‘negative’ media coverage (orchestrated clearly by the Labour camp) has been good for him, I am certain having his face plastered all over the Sunday papers with Blair won’t do him any harm at all.
Labour needed Lit to cock-up somehwere for this type of campaign to resonate. He hasn’t.
I read somewhere that Gordon allegedly said he will personally cut Keith Vaz’s balls if they lose today
8. Since you post anonymously, you have the advantage of me. I am saying what I believe to be the case. If you are a senior MP or official at CCHQ posting anonymously, and you can demonstrate what you are saying is true, then I’ll be happy to change my mind.
FWIW, I believe the Ealing Southall campaign is being run much better than the Bromley & Chislehurst campaign, but we’ll have to wait till tomorrow morning to see if that is so.
Speaking of Clarke. Does anyone remember this…
http://www.the2020vision.org.uk
It has now become static. So much for 2020!
OT New Welsh Cabinet
First minister: Rhodri Morgan (Lab)
Deputy first minister, and economy and transport: Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid)
Social justice and local government: Brian Gibbons (Lab)
Education, children and young people: Jane Hutt (Lab)
Finance and public service delivery: Andrew Davies (Lab)
Health and social services: Edwina Hart (Lab)
Sustainability and housing: Jane Davidson (Lab)
Heritage: Rhodri Glyn Thomas (Plaid)
Rural affairs: Elin Jones (Plaid)
Counsel general, leader of the house and assembly business and communications: Carwyn Jones (Lab)
Was Tom Watson a collaborator in Sion Simon’s infamous (and very poor) spoof of David Cameron?
The funniest thing about the whole episode was a radio interview where Simon described it as “edgy”.
Tom Watson reminds me of the fat kid in the goonies who slapped his stomach.
19 Can you get to work finding out how many PVs have been cast in Sedgefield. Thanks
I hope he does make a f*ck up of it. Watson is an odious little cretin who doesn’t deserve to be on the winning side.
24. sorry, I don’t have a clue on how many PV have been casted in Sedgefield!
15 Crossland, sadly some truth in what you say. One of the LD tactics that seems to work well is to “attack the opponent”. So in B&C it was “3 jobs bob” and “not local”. It nearly worked because Bob was politically naive and the tory campaign organisation was inept.
http://www.geocities.com/brentlibdem/ldebre0302b.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/brentlibdem/ldebre0301c.jpg
17 - I think Osborne was trying to make an off the cuff joke, ill advised of course but not as bad because of the planning that goes into Watson’s efforts. Osborne has to learn how to curb that, can Watson curb his entire personality?
20 I’m engaging in vigorous debate so would hope you don’t take offence. I don’t see where I have the advantage on you. I’m simply making points which have been widely aired in the media, that Bob Neill was not DC’s choice, that he hardly appeared on the Bromley literature etc. I’ve obviously pushed you a little too hard though, so I will diplomatically back away
23 In order to work, a spoof has to be funny (eg Mr. Tangerine Man) - and Sion Simon’s wasn’t.
28 And of course , it nearly worked because it was true . ( add Rik W exclamation marks )
One of the Lab Hodge Hill leafler looked like a BNP material
http://www.geocities.com/hodgelab04/labhod0409a.jpg
27 I know but if anyone can discover hard to reach information somewhere it’ll be you I guess!
18 I hadn’t appreciated how nasty the Playboy slur was in the asian community until Crick asked about it.
My only hope from this election is that Labour comes third - a long shot but the only result that might stand a chance of showing up Watson for the useless and cowardly article he is.
Tom Watson is doing what the LDs have done successfully in by elections for years; target a weakness in the main rival and hammer away. I simply don’t buy Mike’s argument that all publicity is good publicity; look at the successes the LDs have had in by elections running these tactics. I find it impossible to believe that Tony Lit has benefited from that awful photograph with Blair. From what I understand of the campaign the accent has been on damage limitation but no Tory with any sense is rubbing their hands about this episode. If the Tories don’t come second tomorrow that will be the reason.
Sion Simon was funny….once…though no one can quite remember when.
fair point about watson.
but for a lib dem like mike smithson to attack other parties for dirty tricks and smearing at by elections is more than a little hypocritical.
simon ‘the straight choice for bermondsey’ hughes anyone?
I think the problem with Simon’s clip was the content of what he said. Having said that without that it would have just been an overweight brummer talking who happened to look like the male version of Claire Short.
re 20 Sean, what I understand is that in B&C there was no clear Leadership in charge of the campaign. The local party tried to do parts and so did the CCHQ imported people. Leaflets were late and many were not delivered.
In ES the Tory operation is closer to the LD model. It also feature Cameron which B&C did not. These B&C leaflets appear to only have one small photo of DC.
http://by-elections.co.uk/bromley/Conservative.html
Just like leaving your best player on the bench.
24 no Martin, Chunk was funny, brave despite himself and all round a good lad - Watson is a fat male version of Mama Fratelli the evil ‘genius’ who succeeds in losing the great treasure despite her best laid plans.
I bloody dislike handwritten style letters on leaflets…especially when they chose not so easily readable styles!
LD leaflets usually have good colours, easy to catch the eye (even if the minute between the door and the bin)
41.
I mean’t to look at! You can just imagine tom getting the vote out by doing the stomach slapping on peoples front gardens!
Re 23, SBS “The funniest thing about the whole episode was a radio interview where Simon described it as “edgy”.”
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2006/10/sion-simon-pratt-for-birmingham.html
38 - let’s not go over Bermondsey again. (But while we’re on the subject I think the actual wording was “It’s a straight choice”, and I’ve just had a search through the campaign leaflets and “The only one to beat Tatchell” was the slogan used most. Of course, I have no idea what was said on the doorstep…
Re 31, Sean Fear, Tangerine man, yes I blogged about that too here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2006/11/question-time-tonight.html
Mike,can’t you find a more flattering photo of Watson or is the best?
On size issues, fat is something that Watson and Rennard have in common. Is that the common link in the campaign material?
40 That strikes me as being a fair summary.
47 I’m sure he looked for the most flattering photo he could find.
48. “On size issues, fat is something that Watson and Rennard have in common”
Soames leading Con campaigns in the future?
O/T saw a really embarrassing programme last night on More 4 - the “Top 30 Political Comedy Programmes” as voted for by MPs. The clips were fine, but the links and presentation made me cringe. Whatever possessed Michael Howard and Charles Kennedy to do it?
50 - or the most flattering Watson could fit into…
51 Andrea, the Soames scenario only works IF he is put in charge of by election campaigns and IF those by election campaigns personally attack the opponents.
49 sean, too kind, we both await the ES result and the analysis of it on Friday. What is having DC worth to a campaign?
47. how about this one http://static.sky.com/images/pictures/1444588.jpg I don’t think there is such a thing as a good photo of Tom
The might explain Tom Watson priorities:
http://www.sela.co.uk/news11.htm
Has anyone told fatso that shampoo is available?
What a truly revolting specimen of mankind.
You think we should forward the url of this thread to his blog?
Right o/t but the Sedgefield Lib Dems are bigging themselves up saying it’s going close to the wire. You get the impression they feel they can make a statement. Certainly didn’t have that well thanks everyone for all their help resigned sort of feel
54 It must be worth something, because he has a natural rapport with voters. Having a prominent and popular local adds something to the campaign, as well, as does having one person in charge (Grant Shapps) who has shown himself able to campaign effectively.
All in all, I would be disappointed if we couldn’t manage 25% of the vote.
Any probability of the winner having less than 33.3% of the vote?
55 That makes him look uncannily similar to particularly revolting former employer of mine.
SBS (from previous thread): The suggestion on the ground in Southall is that the Labour membership there is the biggest because of lots of dodgy signing up of entire Asian families ‘en mass!
Also, I think this has actually been one of the more civil by-elections in recent history, as I said in the other place last night:
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=916.msg27313#msg27313
61. Very high. Somewhere amongst this lot, I’d guess….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_winning_share_of_the_vote
62 - But to his darling wife, Siobhan, he must surely remains, in those immortal lyrics from The Piglets, “he’s a real tasty geezer an’ I’m his - here - inside”
Cripes, he’s a porker isn’t he!
58
Great idea,but don’t think that it would work as all posts to his blog are censored and sanitized,only Watson’s cronies comments ever appear.
59 What is your source, Punter? My feeling was that it might just be much closer than people expected - but I wouldn’t wish to be accused of ramping, I haven’t been there, and I probably couldn’t tell if I had. In any case, Chris Rennard was fairly reserved in his assessment of Sedgefield - although I notice that he has become slightly warmer in his latest words.
There is an interesting update on Hartlepool on the Sedgefield site:
“Labour’s track record of by-election promises is not impressive. We remember when they accused us of scaremongering about the threat to hospital services during the Hartlepool election a few years ago. Tony Blair promised that Hartlepool Hospital would stay open… It’s being closed.”
He is right too
“THE Government today stands accused of betraying Hartlepool and east Durham over the future of our hospital.
“In September 2004 – days before a crunch by-election Labour was desperate to win – Prime Minister Tony Blair made a promise over the University Hospital of Hartlepool. He told the Mail: “There is no question of the hospital closing or services being rundown.
‘John Reid (the then Health Secretary] is saying it won’t close, I’m saying it won’t close. I don’t know what the next authority is you go to.’
“Labour’s Iain Wright was elected MP a few days later.
“Today we learn that following a near four-year review of hospital services, Hartlepool’s hospital is to be replaced with a single new one somewhere north of the Tees.”
No doubt Comical Tommy has written to Jody Dunn to apologise.
68 Only by the feel of their website and what they said. It had more of a c’mon lads feel, than well thanks everyone for help thing. Yes I know they might say that anyway but I think you can get a sense even from a website if they really feel it. They maybe deluding themselves of course. But I think they at least feel they’ll do themselves proud at the very least my guess. Have a look
67 - to be fair all the politicians’ blogs are the same. Iain Dale throws a hissy fit when he gets a comment he doesn’t like
70 But he isn’t a politician.
69 I had a look. It seemed more of a “I can’t rule anything out” statement to me.
E/S Cons into 4.6
LDs drifting to 5
Sedgers - Lab into 1.02 (worth a small lay ?)
There has been a considerable shortening of the Conservative odds on Betfair for ES. I was waiting for them to lengthen further (from 7) before I staked a few more Quid but I seem to have missed out!
Betfair latest from ES…
Lab 4/9
Con 7/2
LDs 4/1
One Lib Dem HQ employee indicates that they have staked money on a LD ES win.
http://duncanborrowman.blogspot.com/2007/07/ealing-southall-polling-day.html
“Well I’m not betting against my boss, and have £600 to pocket if we pull it off today.”
and he has been based in the LD ES office for past 2 weeks.
69 Punter
Hills are still offering 1/2 against Labour getting more than 59.9% of votes cast. If what you say is true, those are very generous odds.
I’ve had a big punt on this one and hope you are right. I know it’s odds on, but it still looks great vaue to me.
What do you think?
69 Punter
Hills are still offering 1/2 against Labour getting more than 59.9% of votes cast. If what you say is true, those are very generous odds.
I’ve had a big punt on this one and hope you are right. I know it’s odds on, but it still looks great value to me.
What do you think?
He is their NCD who ran the Bromley campaign.
I know the odds have tightened from just above Evens, but surely the 1/2 that Hills are (accidentally) still offering on Labour vote share in Sedgefield being 58.9% or less is free money?
77. Great minds think alike, eh!
77 Steady. I’ve only had a small punt which I hopeto cover with winnings from ES. Hope you have too…………
71 What you lookin at. For you and 77 this the latest headline on the Sedgefield Lib Dems website. If they’re just bigging themselves up without reason they’ll be mightily silly: “Sedgefield Byelection set to be close to the wire!”
68 - there you go, there’s political rhetoric and there’s the real world
as someone with family ties to that area, the NHS provision has been modernised very impressively. No doubt having the PM and a long time health mos/sos in milburn was helpful in this regard.
And can you see what they’ve done with the text, not a single stat on the quality of services in the area, not a factoid on what’s happened to waiting times (coming down, and down)
This will be the same lib dems who say whitehall shouldn’t be bossing around local health decisions, but then campaign on wanting all configuration of services to be in aspic on the binding word of whitehall.
Next they’ll be telling us they were opposed to the invasion of iraq!
Anyone got any provisional turnout numbers from telling?
77. 80. 81. PtP, Caveman and Punter. I’ve just taken some of the 1/2 also with Hills for Labour vote in Sedgefield being less than 58.9%. If we are all backing this outcome the odds should be shifting soon.
81 Only a couple of grand, Punter.
71 - isn’t he a candidate?
Gordon’s the Great Clunking Fist. Watson’s his little Flunking Cist!
Gordon’s the Great Clunking Fist. Watson’s his little Flunking Cist!
82 Read my lips, said Blair…
86 Wants to be. Think he tried for Witham but Patel got that. Who knows where he maybe looking now. Kigali Central possibly……..
Punter Sedgefield LDs might end up looking silly but I don’t think that would stop them claiming that they are within striking distance . The LDs always do that. The difference with ES is that Rennard himself nailed his colours to the mast by backing publicly figures showing them a strong second. He can’t oil his way out of that. If they come third his credibility will be badly damaged. His only claim about Sedgefield, as far as I know, is that the LDs were the clear challengers. I think we knew that. Having said that I’m amazed that William Hill are offering such odds. Surely the Labour share is bound to slide in a safe seat on a turnout that’s bound to be well below the GE. I wouldn’t be surprised if it falls below 50%, still comfortably enough to win, of course. Why, though, have both Will Hill and Ladbrokes pulled their offers on the by election results; they haven’t been available for a couple of days, as far as I can see.
I lose money on either Labour win. Never mind. At least my modest loss is less than I made on Kent beating Notts yesterday.
86 He was. Savaged by a Lamb in North Norfolk (as someone wrote on his blog).
I don’t think Labour will get 50% in Sedgefield. And in ES, I still think the winner will get 29%.
84 No chance, StJohn. Sidney doesn’t return from lunch till 4.30 and he never changes the odds during the day.
With any luck, we’ll still be able to bet on this one after the result is announced.
86 he didn’t get on the A list but may be trying elsewhere. ALso he does post things he doesn’t like but he does edit swearing - it’s not in the same league of control as Watson’s “blog”.
91 ?
Confused, Blue Moon. Hill’s 1/2 is up there now. Always has been. (Was originally 6/5 but has been 1/2 for a while.)
Have you really gone in big PtP? I haven’t been following Sedgefield but I’ve just had a decent bet. What odds would you rate the bet? I’m thinking of topping up.
Sorry Peter the P I might meant the offers on the ES by election. I haven’t seen them for a couple of days or am I going a bit pork rind?
re 22. Andrea, don’t think much of Plaid’s negotiating skills. They’ve been shafted. Thed’Hondt formula suggests that they should have got 4 cabinet seats to Labour’s 6.
100. But they left Labour with Health and Education those ministries will only ever make you unpopular. Why Labout let themselves gut stuck with those I don’t know………
98 LOL!
Depends what you call big. 
I had £50 at 6/5, and £300 at 1/2. As you know, I don’t generally play odds on but sometimes you have to make exceptions.
99 That’s right. They wiped the ES market a couple of days ago.
I guess they were frightened of inside information.
102. 6/5 was a great bet. Mike Smithson’s had £200 at 6/5 I think. I’ve has £200 at 1/2. I think I will stick with that unless you, Caveman or Mike Smithson think the correct odds should be 1/5 or less.
Now ES Betfair has Labour 1/2, LDs 3/1 Tories 4/1. Very labile market.
104 I wouldn’t be backing at 1/2 if I didn’t think the true probability was at least 1/5. The returns are too small with odds on.
In truth, I think it’s more like a 1/10 shot, but £350 is as much as I want to risk on this type of bet.
That 50% return on less than 59% in Sedgfield from Will Hill is very tempting. Its very rare for any party to hold its vote at a by-election when the seat is so safe at the prior general election that no other party bothered.
On ES I would say I have respect for Rennard as a campaign manager. However his ’smaple of 0′ opinion poll announcement on ES creates the suspicion that he is panicking. I think it will be too close to call. This is born out by the postal ballots, although they do show the Lib Dems somewhat behind compared to Labour and the Conservatives, undermining Rennard’s claims.
Only a few hours to go.
I notice that MC personally said on the Ealing Southall LDs website yesterday that the Tories were in ‘freefall’ and that the LDs were ‘neck and neck’ with Labour. It’s one thing for local campaigns to say that but Rennard and even more MC really have stuck their necks out. I wonder whether MC has decided already to go if they come third? With talk of early elections it’s hard to imagine another messy putsch but there’s nothing to stop him falling on his sword. Of course if the LDs win or just miss out the sniping will stop-until the next time!
Where do I find the Hills 1/2 bet? I want on!
*NEWSFLASH*
Sedgfield has just gone from Will Hill.
109. Go to William Hill website and click on Politics and then Sedgefield byelection. You think this bet is nailed on too RodCrosby?
110. Well spotted Will L. I dithered so I didn’t end up topping up.
Hills pulled the Sedfield market a couple of minutes ago.
Just exactly how much did you have on, StJohn?
Seems to have gone…Doh!
13 - I believe it was Kevan Jones who targeted Jody Dunn. Labour are using the same tactic (the “two faced” picture) on Greg Stone because he previously stood in Newcastle.
The LD campaign was going strong when I was there at 6:30am. If the whole constituency was like the bit I delivered, Greg would win it by a country mile (poster count: Stone 10, Rest of the World 0).
Unfortunately it is not… but there is a strong feeling that the “neglected by Labour” message is resonating and there will be a big swing.
112 Don’t give us that! You had a shedload. Hills couldn’t cope.
Rennard predicted “I think that Ealing Southall was something like Labour 37, Lib Dem 31, Con 22. From this position Lib Dems can win but it should be close. I believe that we could be into re-count territory on Thursday night.”
We shall see in about 12 hours time.
113. LOL! Wish I could take the credit.
My forecast for the Labour share in Sedgefield is 43.9%…
89
“82 Reid my lips, said Blair”
Cherie-picking the manifesto are we?
115.
“it was Kevan Jones who targeted Jody Dunn”
airi it was the Hartlepool Mial. or more precisely the Hartlepool male who they employed, who er … distracted her somewhat from her principal purpose.
Two senior Liberal Democrats have been arrested in connection with electoral fraud in Ealing Southall:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-12759810,00.html
115 Hmm but will those other areas turn out and in what strength………….
119 And the others…………
The tories in quite a bit on betfair, LD’s out, Labour static
HF exactly. Rennard’s remark indicates a strong second place. However, for the Leader of the LDs personally to go even further and stick his neck out like that is a high risk strategy. I’ve seen no hint of a forecast from DC ( Tony Lit’s a brilliant candidate and the campaign’s going well that sort of stuff) and GB is nowhere near the seat which in fairness is what any other PM would do.
122: I’m getting “Sorry, this story is currently unavailable”, like what you get when you type a non-existent number on the end of a Sky News URL.
Have they pulled the story, did you paste it wrong, or did you make the story up?
Re 122 - story now unavailable on Sky website - what was it?
122. The link is down what was the story
123. they pulled the story until after 2200.
129 Were any names mentioned?
“Knacker of the yard” - that link doesnt exist.
129: “they pulled the story until after 2200?”
How do you know that?
Sounds like FUD (”fear, uncertainty, doubt”) to me…
129 Check the IP address sounds like Grant Shapps dirty trick again .
121 - The Bl**dy Cheek leaflet (A3 with just that title, the infamous blog quote, “Darlo Dunn” and the two faced pic and not much more) did Jody at lot of damage - I know ‘cos I spent a couple of hours trying to explain it to waverers out on the Headland on eve of poll.
123 - Sedgefield is a very varied constituency - more than ES - posh villages around Darlo, thru Council Estates in N Aycliffe to the mining villages. Greg will pick up votes throughout, but I’m not going further than that!
128. Postal vote irregularities.
132. The last word in my sign on indicates my profession.
122 - sounds like a wind up from a Tory using a made up name.
LD price drops through the floor on betfair.
136 - are you a “yardie”
4.8/1 is hardly through the floor
The real Sky URLs are all like
“0,,30100-1275981,00.html”
with 7 digits before the comma.
“Knacker of the yard”’s URL has 8 digits before the comma.
Either they have a special format for URLs they only disclose to the police for use in polical ramping, or “Knacker of the yard” is full of shit.
139 No, he’s a Weights and Measures Inspector (pre-metric version).
As I have indicated before, I am a newbie to betting on Betfair. Can someone tell me if it is normal for there to be such significant swings in the odds as there have been in the last day or so?
Thanks!
122 - Ignore the ramper/troll….
122, 138 - now you’ve made your bet on Betfair to back the LDs at 6 (or whatever it’s dropped to), you can say “fooled you, huh!”
Knacker Put up or shut up. Is it a joke or isn’t it? The Telegraph website clearly indicated a Tory source for the PV leak which doesn’t, of course, rule out a totally unrelated fraud accusation.
last prices
Lab 1.56
Con 3.65
Lib 5.7
138 Judging from your inappropriate terminology, TA, I should say you know little about accountancy and even less about the turf.
Are you related to To$$er of the Yard?
I think we have had this exact scam (also with an invented Sky address) in the past. Probably Watson getting his revenge for unkind comments above.
They just added an extra zero to the url of the cannabis story, you can safely ignore.
138: Good - time to pile in!
149 - well, Watson’ still a fat tw@t!
143 Please sir , a lot of it is me , asking for a silly price say 9.0 on LibDems , someone matching it , and then laying it straight away at a generous price say 7.0 for a small immediate profit . Have just calculated that 8% of all the trades on ES Betfair market involved me as better or layer .
150. Lol what a complete @rse knocker of the turd is
152. My thoughts exactly
143 Rik W
No, it isn’t.
What we have here is a three horse race in which all three have a chance. Nobody really knows the state of play and there is little reliable form to go on.
Furthermore, the market is thin, so relatively small stakes can cause big fluctuations. This is all the more so because a couple of days ago somebody at Betfair pressed the wrong button and accidentally put the market ‘in play’. That wiped out all the unmatched bets. Many would not have been replaced so the pool of unmatched bets, which generally adds some stability to markets, was much shallower than usual.
150 ukpaul - clearly the only genuine copper on here - great piece of detective work!
LOL Great post Mark
as Mike’s thread yesterday made clear, Betfair prices are absolutely no indicator of what a result will be - even up to the final moments.
If they were, Willie Rennie would not now be Lib Dem MP for Dunfermline; and Liam Fox (not Ken Clarke) would have crashed out in the first round of the ‘05 Tory leadership race.
159. Thats just not true, they are usually right. Obviously when a market is small they are more likely to be wrong.
160 - I see, so they’re right except when they’re wrong.
Sounds like Rik’s predictions
156 - thanks Peter.
156 PtP. Exactly correct.
Less than £5K has been traded on Ealing since around mid morning. This is a tiny amount by the afternoon of a by-election. It indicates almost diddly squat !!
Two people arrested in Southall Shocker! *
*nothing to do with the by-election, I just rather suspect some people have been arrested somewhere there for something.
Wonder why Knacker was reverse ramping? hoping to drive the LD price out to pick up a bet and lay back?
Benedict, yes I suspect there are rampers on the forum today who are laughing as they shift their money back and forward making pure profit.
Having said that, I couldnt help putting a small amount on LD win in Sedgefield at 50/1.
165: What would be the legal situation there? Sounds like fraud to me…
Now if they used the same IP address to post here as they used on Betfair…
159/160 Joe and Polska
It’s a bit of an overstatement to say that price fluctuations tell you nothing, but it would be equally wrong to say they tell you everything. As a punter, I’m interested in what the market moves are suggesting, but they are no substitute for form study and sound judgement.
I recall at the Cheltenham Festival one year a horse, owned by a wealthy construction magnate, was backed in from 20s to 4s. Now it might only take a few hundred quid to shift prices at the by-election like that, but I promise you that at the CF, it takes the wealth of Croesus. I was a bit more naive in those days and ‘followed the money’, thinking it must be a good thing.
The horse was never sighted during the race, and as far as I know, not since either.
165 - I think ramping is unlikely to play a major part in this market. It’s a fairly specialised market, and a fair assumption is that most of the money is coming from people who know what they’re doing - to borrow a crude phrase from the BF forums, the “mug money” will not be coming to a politics market in any great quantity.
So, anyone attempting to influence the market - particularly among an exceptionally well-informed group such as this - is sadly wasting their time.
167. With the benefit of hindsight, I hope that you didn’t follow my tip yesterday.
Re 165, Yes, and 50/1 on Sedgefiled for the LD’s has got to be worth a small punt.
Re 166, Yes that does look like fraud, prooving it is another matter though.
153 Mark
I was just thinking of some similar dabbles… and then I did the maths. Frankly my time is worth far more than the miserly returns! Now if some plonker would match £1000, then it would be worthwhile. Where is francis btw?
Incidentally, why would someone match your bet at 9s, when they could match less risky bets at shorter odds? Or am I missing the point somewhere.
shouldn’t there be some indication of turnout by now? or some news about something
167 Mike
Afraid I did, Mike, but no worries. I did it to small stakes and I’m sure it was given in good faith.
Btw, what was the source of the information?
Weather (according to le beeb)… in Sedgefield “light showers” and bad visibility around Darlington and Newton Aycliffe, “cloudy” and moderate visibility in the old pit villages.
In Ealing Southall… “sunny intervals” and decent visibility everywhere.
168 - quite the reverse! Political betting surely has its own form of “mug money”, those who are utterly deluded and find it difficult to believe their own party won’t win!
I would imagine that if one tends to bet against the Conservatives, you’ll make money on betfair markets as so many true believers will be piling in cash
A Labour friend has just emailed me to say that based on the canvass outside polling stations to 4pm the Conservatives are slightly ahead. The evening voters could tip it either way, and they are relying on them to pull it back.
170 Deception, isn’t it Benedict, rather than fraud? Still illegal, of course.
171 They could not match shorter odds but they could have course offered a lay bet at shorter odds . Agree the profits are not large for the time involved but it is a bit of fun and I am all Green minimum £ 50 for an initial £5 bet .
Wow!
I guess that’s a lot of pensioners voting
The Conservative odds have just shortened considerably!!
shows someone is silly enough to take a vague anomoynous message on the internet at face value!
176. IF that is correct, then I would expect the Conservatives to win it as a greater share of our voters go and vote in the evening as they are more likely to be in employment than a Labour core voter.
Re 177, Peter the Punter, Could be.
Re 176, Is this PaulT fellow reliable?
Actually Stonch I think the conventional bookies are a better guide if you can get them to put up a market. I did a large number of surveys of bookies’ odds in marginal seats during the last GE. Of course they got seats hopelessly wrong; Enfield Southgate and Dorset South spring to mind but much more often than not they were right. It was immediately clear that the Tories would do better than average in London with the odds suggesting a 4.5% swing compared with much lower swings evident further north. Also it was clear that the decapitation strategy was failing; Howard, Davis and May were obviously safe early on and Letwin was a close run thing. The one surprise was Collins where the LDs came through with a late run. I also recall that it clearly showed overall that the LDs were not going to do well net against the Tories but would pick up virtually all their targets from Labour. The one exception was Oldham East and Saddleworth which the bookies stubbornly called for Labour. Guess what they were right to my surprise. Overall by the death I had 190 Tory seats and 62 LDs, not bad.
165 Who gave you those odds and when?!
hotting up into a 3 horse race….
labour 1.9
tories 3.3
libs 5