Which leaders came out of yesterday best?
July 20th, 2007
Has Cameron got the most problems this morning?
Judged by the standards of normal mid-term by elections the reduced Labour majorities in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield were sensational victories for Labour. To have kept its average vote share loss in both seats down to 10.7% was something that the party can take real comfort from.
But these are not normal times and these cannot be judged as normal mid-term by elections. We have what’s being presented as a change of government and this was it first electoral test. Given the 40% poll ratings the party might have been hoping for better especially with the wall-to-wall the positive media coverage of Labour that has been enjoying for weeks.
So goodish for Gordon but not good enough for him to risk a general election.
But what about the Tories and the Lib Dems - should they have expected to do better? The answer must be yes and the outcomes were a real disappointment.
The Tories simply do not “do” by elections - a characteristic of UK politics that has been going on for more than a quarter of a century. They, and particularly their leader David Cameron, invested a huge amount in Ealing Southall and got almost no return.
The only reason Cameron has been able to steer his party in a different direction has been because he has been seen as an election winner. Once that perception goes he could be in for a testing time. By October/November the polls need to have got better.
What Cameron must be praying for is that he can avoid by elections in any Tory held seat.
The Lib Dems did reasonably well in terms of increasing their vote share and taking second place off the Tories in Sedgefield but by elections are their speciality. To make a bit of progress is one thing but they came nowhere near to victory in either seat.
There have been repeated murmurings against Ming Campbell and some in the party were suggesting that his leadership could be on the line if the party did badly. That did not happen and Ming is probably safe.
The by election betting. The big decline in Labour’s vote share in Sedgefield meant that those who took up the suggestions here to bet on them getting less than their 2005 share have done well. This market opened with the price at 6/4. It dropped to 6/5 and then progressively tightened. Amazingly it was still available yesterday afternoon at 1/2.
As was said repeatedly here this looked like free money throughout and I hope many PBers got on. It certainly meant that I came out of the day ahead.
The other big PB gamble, the bet on Labour losing a by election before one of a number of possible events happen remains in place. This was recommended by site users when the price was 10/1.
Mike Smithson
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A VERDICT - CHEER AND WORRY FOR ALL THREE
Labour holds two safe Labour seats. Even Ealing was their 91st safest seat in Britain.
In Sedgefield the net Labour to Conservative swing is 7.3%. We often forget to include the Labour drop in the swing (-14.1%). In ES the Conservatives have had a net swing, Labour to Conservative, of 4.2%. Labour’s drop is -7.5%.
Usually the Conservatives are hugely squeezed by the Lib Dems at by elections, but this time it failed, as the Conservative vote actually increased as a percentage in both constituenices. These are in fact the best Conservative by-election results in more than a decade. For example, this is a huge improvement on Bromley, just last year.
For the Lib Dems their by-election reputation has been hugely dented. Of course, it wasn’t so bad that Ming is in trouble. He will in fact be pleased at what is still a respectable performance.
Labour will of course be delighted. After defeats in Dunfermline and Brent East they must have feared a Lib Dem triumph yet again. The ultra-short campaign worked. They have held up. But they must be worried about holding a general election. If the Labour vote drops by even a quarter of what it has in these by-elections, Labour will lose their majority in the Commons.
Overall good and bad for all. Only the opinion polls will add to our conclusions. It does though look like a general election is more likely.
Brown will seek a mandate after all.
This was my comment on PB on July 18th, 2007 at 8:24 am -
“Nothing has happened to change my view that Labour will win with a reduced majority on a low turnout. I suspect that the Lib Dems will be in second place, and the Tories will not greatly improve their share of the vote. If a Lib Dem bandwagon starts to roll, they may even fall back.”
Why did anybody seriously expect it to be any different?
As to the question, these were rather mediocre performances by the Lib Dems, which will do nothing to silence the criticism of the leadership, while probably not being bad enough to precipitate an immediate crisis.
For the Conservatives, the news is much worse. They invested a lot of moral capital in Ealing Southall, and fell flat on their faces. Yes, David Cameron was right to perceive that the Conservatives needed to “reinvent” themselves in some way, but blue-tinted Blairism is clearly not the answer to their dilemma. What they really need is -
1. to develop a critique of Labour that resonates with the electorate, and
2. give people something distinctive to vote for that offers some prospect of actually improving their lives.
They have done neither, and are going precisely nowhere.
Just awoke from my slumbers and bewildered by these results -especially after all that`s occured in the last ten tears - I despair -what has gone wrong with the British people ?
2. I seriously expected better, as did most Tories who’d been out to campaign. No question a very disappointing result for the blues.
But also for the Libs who even late last night thoight they could take it.
At the end of the day two vibrant opposition campaigns, an awful Labour one, result standstill.
I allowed heart to rule head and forget about what ES is - Labour bedrock.
Well done to all who got involved.
The trolls on ConHome who hate DC will crow away, but I don’t think there will be any further effect.back to waiting for the next major poll.
I certainly hope Gordon is tempted to call a GE.
And congrats to our Labour posters.
“The trolls on ConHome who hate DC will crow away”
They are perfectly entitled to.
Good result for Labour. Very, very pleased.
Good for Labour, poor for both others.
Tories vote shares slightly up in both so not squeezed by LDs but they had the momentum in ES first week with earlier selection, defections and publicity, so should have done a lot better, invested lot of effort for no reward. Not a disaster but poor.
LDs gained at some disaffection from Labour but “Only LDs can win here” didn’t catch public mood which doesn’t seem to be “throw the b*****s out” so they didn’t squeeze the opposition parties. On past bye-elections not a good performance, confirms the overall picture of halt in progress possibly slight reversal from 2005.
Labour kept their seats, didn’t lose much vote share and it looks like the Brown bounce has been enough to overcome mid-term blues. Can go into the summer on a winning note.
Overall it seems a “no change here” sentiment - Brown has firmed and stabilised the Labour vote but no sign he’s attracted back the lost voters from 2001 & 2005 or the excitement that would put Labour support up near the 40’s again. An autumn election would probably see Labour vote around 2005 share, Conservatives up a bit and LDs down so Labour would be largest party but probably without majority
Reading around the papers there is no doubt who came off worst: Cameron has at the least “suffered a setback” and in some papers been “humiliated”. Tory hype at the next by=election will certainly be ignored.
The idea that Cameron knew what the Tories had to do to get elected has gone.
As pointed out on last night’s thread, Southall is quite a special seat and frankly not one where the Tories stood much chance. Way back in 1979 when the Tories won and did particularly well in the south east, Southall was the only seat in the SE which did n’t swing to them at all. Also compare third place in 2005 with some of their best results in seats quite near. If Labour were going to face a by-election in London, they were really lucky it was this particular seat. I do n’t think the choice of Tory candidate would have made much difference.
Conservative seats falling again on Spreadfair.. 260 best bid of any kind now.
Always amazing how there is so much wisdom after the event…
What were the Sedgefield shares and swings?
PS Rennard wasn’t a million miles out was he?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedgefield_by-election%2C_2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ealing_Southall_by-election%2C_2007
Very good results for Labour to win both relatively easily. Frankly poor for both opposition parties. Had Blair still been there expect the result for Labour would have been much worse (except of course no election in Sedgefield!)
1 - Whoever posted this - the spinning competition has now finished on the other thread. There is no need for you to continue to impersonate Will L with this uncharacteristcally sensible and reasoned post.
Um - a bit glum this morning. Pleased that we have not been badly squeezed as per usual, and vote share has actually slightly increased in both seats. Pleased that we have helped prevent the usual Lib Dem victory news boost the morning after a by-election - this has been their principal source of positive publicity for the past 2-3 decades.
Disappointed that we didn’t do better in ES - after all they hype and early positive signs. I think we got the tactics right for a change (well run, centralised campaign) but we clearly need to do much more on candidate selection and due diligence. We also need to learn how to build on early traction - but then we are so un-used to it happening to us!
All in all - a reasonable night for Lab & LD, not a disatser for us as some are saying, but clearly disappointing considering where we need to be if we’re to be in a majority government position at the next GE.
Not much suprise last night in hindsight - Cons are poor at b/elections, lds are great, 2 safe labour seats remain labour.
DCs new spin doctor from the NOTW needs to start earning his corn methinks…
Well, this Tory who scooted off to bed early last night had a nasty shock this morning. I mean, fancy Betfair having not settled the ES market yet, cuh…
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1. Brown appears to have differentiated himself from Blair sufficiently to hold onto most of the labour vote. That may be a temporary phenomena
2. ES is an unusual seat - Labour support is still solid within the hindu and sikh community. They aren’t mug enough to fail to spot a carpetbagger when they see one.
3. The posh end of the seat not motivated to give Labour a kicking
4. The Tony Lit and Blair picture
However if project Cameron continues then the disconnect between the parties views and those of most people will get even worse, as I suspect, even as an old leftie of sorts, that most of the country is actually well to the right of all three parties. This is the main testament to Conservative failure
18. Really ? Thought my account was lower than it should have been
Result from last night Swansea CC Llansamlat Labour hold :-
Lab 769 LibDem 581 Plaid 283 BNP 226 Ind 221 Con 0 - forgot to hand in nomination papers
2004 result 4 seats Ind 1176 Lab 1063/1062/975/959 Plaid 770 LibDem 598 Con 566/509/504
Cameron was quite successful in terms of stopping the Lib Dems winning Ealing, ie stopping himself from getting lynched by his own right wing. Limited leader:limited ambition. Lit was a roller coaster ride but without him the Tories would have been stuffed. he stopped the Lib Dems gathering real momentum. Hats off to the Lib Dem campaign team - great effort with not the strongest literature material, but then in an appallingly difficult environment with all the national media talking up the Tories and almost an assumption that the Lib Dems would end in third.
All - and a disastrous night for the commentariat all of whom without exception predicted Lit neck and neck with Labour and Lib Dems in third.
I hope they choke on their newsprint
“Has Cameron got the most problems this morning?” Well, at least it’s more civilised to ask a rhetorical question.
“Cameron stuffed” would be a more blunt way of headlining this article.
Labour did all it could to lose ES, an elderly candidate,(far to old in my opinion) a poor campaign, despite all of that, The Conservatives could not even dent Labour and in fact are sliding backwards. If test thinks there are going to be no repercussions for Cameron, he/she is showing the same symptons of self delusion that he/she showed before the result. The rightwing of the Conservative party spurred on by the triumvirate, Heffer,Hitchens,Phillips will now be out for his blood.The civil war for the soul of the Conservative Party is about to break out over the long hot summer,(ok! the long wet summer).
Mike doesnt mention the shortness of the campaign, perhaps half the length of previous by elections (good move Gordon!). That the Tories in ES used all the Lib Dem tactics, had the most photogenic candidate (he was pretty awful at the result though!) and lots and lots of money happily shows that the electorate arent stupid.
Perhaps the mistake was making so much of Cameron.
Fairly wrecked this morning and have 3 salmon to buy and cook for the Cricket lunch on Saturday!!!
Good for Labour, poor for Tories, middling for LDs (although many LDs will be quite happy, because there were real jitters among some that the Tories might push them into 3rd).
Tory spinners trying to portray these as “good” results are comical. I refer them to the last few days’ threads.
Nick Palmer’s atrocious record of by-election prediction continues, which is what he gets for buying the Labour spin every time (Tories in 2nd, he says!)
Most LDs were predicting Lab win, LD 2nd, as were a couple of Labour posters. They are proved correct. Chris Reynard’s prediction was, as usual, within a few percent.
However, Labour can be very happy with the results.
8.am. message to self; Must stop listening to Humphrys. Very depressing.
8.05. Must call Steve. Can we still blame Maude or should we blame Grant? And where’s George when the shit hits the proverbial?
‘Darling is the kitchen clean? I think I better do another webcameron. Can you polish up one of the kids?
8.10…..ring…ring…’Is that Steve? That little shit Lit claims I congratulated him and says he’s going to stand again. If we still have an ‘A’ list make sure that little creep is nowhere near it. Any mi
26. Neither Heffer or Hitchens are Conservative supporters - both UKIP.
Very very good for Labour. But no early general Election. 100 weeks.
A pair of good results for Labour. Very poor for Lib Dems as by elections are their “energiser” and it was their first “2nd place Vs Govt” failure in 17 yrs. Poor for the Tories as they made no leap forward.
Also ES was a victory for “attack the opponent” politics. Tom Watson took this to a new low. Yes you can mention your opponent as long as you chuck mud at him. “Playboy” is a nasty label in Asian communities.
So Ming stays in place albeit with a couple of more nails inserted in his coffin, Cameron needs to sort out his organisation and Brown can have a nice relaxed summer.
BTW I had 35:25:19 for the big three at E-S in the correct order. Gave the tiddlers - particular Rai - far too much credit but pretty close for the main event.
8.20 ‘Tom’? ‘Get the Lexus out. I think I’ll cycle to work’
Come on. This is about as good as it was ever going to get for Labour. Tories a poor 3rd, Lib Dems 1000s of votes off the money. Excellent.
Agree with most of the above comments. I’ve had a look at the various betting markets this morning. The Cantor Spreadfair ones look likely to shift drastically, I’d have thought - the probability of 60+ Tory gains seems at present relatively unlikely and the probability of an election within a year must be markedly higher than a few weeks ago. An oddity is that Cantor’s wording of the latter may be misleading people - by calling it “Brown weeks” it suggests that it’s about how long GB will be Prime Minister, whereas in fact it’s about how many weeks to the next GE. I’d not noticed that before, but Mike was surprised the other week when a good Labour poll produced a shift to more “Brown weeks” - maybe that’s why?
I imagine the media will cover the CPS decision and subsequent interviews with the police, Lord Levy etc. most for the next day or two, but whatever one thinks of the decision it effectively puts the story to bed. The by-elections are probably of more interest to professional observers. Without the unseemly gloating of my post last night (sorry) I think soberly that Labour are in good shape for mid-4th term and the Conservatives are going nowhere fast. The poor Respect result is also interesting - the Muslim vote in Ealing Southall is not huge, but it’s a lot larger than that, so it looks as though the religious arm of the Galloway coalition may be fading.
Finally, congratulations to JohnLoony for a very decent result. Francis must be gutted that you beat his guy!
26 I don’t think either Heffer or Hitchens are actually members of UKIP, Heffer has spoken in favour of a UKIP candidate, but considers himself a ‘Tory.’ Hitchens believes, (as I do) that the Tory Party has reached the end of the line, and should split. Those ‘Liberal Conservatives’ should then go into their natural home, New-Labour or the Libdems, leaving the field free for a new right wing party, radical economically, socially Conservative. The triumvirate, write in the two most important Conservative newspapers in the UK, their views,(whether you agree or not) are shared by millions of Conservative voters, they will use their position, to start a campaign against DC and the Cameroons, that campaign will drive many of those who have supported DC, out of the Conservative Party, just as the SDP were driven out of Labour.
p.s.
Cameron is making a big mistake by leaving the country on Monday, It won’t be the same Tory Party when he returns!
Final result from last night Ipswich BC Castle Hill Technically Con gain from Ind ( elected as a Conservative ) Con 1028 Lab 385 LibDem 284 . May result Con 1081 LibDem 502 Lab 425 Ind 111 Green 96
“Come on. This is about as good as it was ever going to get for Labour”
Not necessarily. Never underestimate the Conservatives ability to self destruct.
It occured to me that the worst result for anyone would have been Labour to lose Southall to the Tories. Brown would have been stopped in his tracks and the Tories would have momentum.
The second most significant result would have been two third places for the Lib Dems. Almost certainly goodbye to Ming.
And the third most significant result was two third places for the Tories. Not as significant as the other two but bad enough to cause at least a whispering campaign to start in the Tory Party
37. I’d be amazed if everything you predict didn’t come true - its a racing certainty ;o)
Woods for the golf open people - real free money..
The real loser from last night is the reputation of the consolidated predictive power of pb.com posters.
Together you said that ES would be Lab 35.3, LD 29.0, Con 26.8
The result? Lab 41.3 (6 points better!), LD 27.7(-1.3), Con 22.5(-4.3)
It’s the 2nd time you’ve misled me recently. I believed that brown wasn’t going to have any bounce either but look at him go. I’m never going to listen to you lot again.
Sedgefield - a ‘Conservative Party’ candidate
Southall - a ‘David Cameron’s Conservative Party’ candidate
Could this be a portend of the future?
Well, I predicted the order of the top three candidates in both seats, which was frankly pretty easy.
A wonderful night for Labour. When did a government last hold two seats in by-elections on the same night? Middling result for the LDs. These by-elections do not always produce great victories - Leeds Central didn’t, and nor did Ipswich.
The Tories tried pretty hard in Ealing, but must be gutted. Shapps was spinning so much on TV last night, I thought he would be sick.
I think it all goes to show two things:-
1) Tories are crap at by-elections
2) Labour are likely to win the next GE
From the picture above it seems that Cameron might have come out of this by-election as using the same hair colouring product which Blair had to discard because of the ‘flaming’ effect under the TV lights (and unsuitabliity of golden brown dye for once-darker hair). Must he copy Bair on everything?
Which is the more dangerous for DC? Coming out on personal drugs policy or coming out as a Grecian 2007er?
37 “start a campaign” - I think Heffer started the campaign on day 1 of Cameron leadership closely followed by Phillips, Hitchens and Daley.
All three major parties are uneasy alliances. As a Cameron supporter I’m gutted this morning but not downcast, this is something that should be a learning experience and CCHQ needs to really work a bye-election strategy out.
On your point about break up of I don’t find New Labour or the Liberal Democrats an alternative party with any attraction and I think that applies to most “liberal conservatives”. The LDs are an uneasy alliance of Liberals, a Green front and new Labour-lite Social Democrats whose overall raison d’etre I can’t quite understand. New Labour seems to have dropped any coherent philosophy and very successfully puts on the clothes of any other party that seems to have a winning idea - under Gordon Brown it seems to be all about reaching out to the angry brigade who write for the Daily Mail. It’s dominated by central plans and authoritarian directives with little understanding of individuals or civil rights.
So much good news for Labour today I think the cabinet can afford celebrate with a spliff.
5 - I tip my hat to you Test for admitting this was disappointing for the Tories.
Regrettably, I fear the most notable result was the 8.9% received by the BNP in Sedgefield. Sends a chill down my spine.
If Brown can make some progress on increasing the supply of Social Housing, as it appears he intends, then this will help a lot.
” Cameron was quite successful in terms of stopping the Lib Dems winning Ealing ”
Absolutely right, and at least we can be pleased about doing that. You would be surprised how many Conservatives fight tooth and nail to make sure that they take enough LD’s vote to keep them from winning, even if it means allowing Labour to take the win.
Matt.
Please could we have a by election in a Tory held seat, please.
43
Shouldn’t have thought so - they both did equally badly!
51 Indeed the named leader effect seems to be dead.
How long before Cameron floats the modernising idea of electoral reform? Since he has already taken a lot from the other two parties the chance to work with them might appeal.
Quite apart from the fact that Nick P is right. A dispassionate analysis of the results last night has to lead you to the conclusion a Tory majority is very unlikely next time (worth laying the Tories on Betfair I would think against buying Tory seats now).
I had a flick through the last few threads. Has UKPaul morphed into Will L? Some of the most angry and bizarre posts I’ve seen on here for a while! I think at least a lie down is called for……
I agree with Ted that some of the Daily Mail instincts of our new puritanical leader are worrying but from a Labour supporting point of view I think he’s showing himself to be a master tactician. I wonder how many elections Tony would have won without him?
Roger,I said last night that mine and your prediction, came right on cash for hounours.
Also what now of our hosts theory, of the more Cameron gets publicity good or bad the vote goes up?
The ballot in Ealing described it as Camerons conservatives.
Was this a Cameron dictat relying on mike`s theory?
46. Yes, quite, I’m not sure why any self-respecting liberal-leftie would be cheering Gordon Brown’s victory. He is clearly to the right of Cameron on many issues, maybe most. Brown is moralistic, authoritarian, very pro-business, pro-Iraq, blah blah blah. He is a centrist figure, but he borrows bits of socialism and conservatism when it suits him.
He is the Jabba the Hut of British politics, a big fat blob eating everybody else’s policy pies. That makes DC the Princess Leia of Westminster, cute but ineffective, and kidnapped by Labour’s agenda.
Speaking of which, this is a very bad night for the Tories, no mistake. Cameron invested personally in ES, and lost badly. Probably the Tories should never have hyped expectations. So the tactics failed, but maybe the strategy is failing too. This is midterm in Labour’s fourth government. And the Tories still can’t win by-elections.
Hugely worrying. If things don’t improve my the Autumn the party may start to implode with the stress of its internal conradictions. Cameron has taken the party as far left as it will go. The elastic is taut. He now needs to win those votes that are peeling off to the right - BNP and UKIP - or abstaining. How does he do this without rebranding the Tories as nasty?
47: lol - idly loking through the Telegraph online comments on the Jacqui Smith story (yes, silly use of time, but I’m still waking up), I found this gem:
“Id like to make a comment but I really cant be bothered man. ”
On topic - during the ES campaign a lot of Labour MPs were comparing it with the Leicester South by-election, where a candidate from the largest ethnic community unseated Labour and Respect did well. Why was it different here?
Maybe because Sikhs and Hindu families have mostly been here for more than one generation, and are not under the collective pressure that Muslims feel because of 9/11, criticism of veils and nijabs and all the “War on Terror” stuff. They make political decisions as individuals more than as members of an embattled community. (I wonder when those defecting councillors are up for re-election…)
54,
Yes Roger I was surprised by Pauls labour hating bile that spewed out.
Unlike him he is usualy more measured in his response.
Maybe the the set back to Liberal/Conservatism Cameron style was a shock was a shock .
More spin from the tories this morning along the lines of how untypical ES is and how they cant really be expected to do well in such a safe labour seat. At the last local elections lab had 16 councillors the tories 11, libs 1 ( ignores defections and I realise some of the ealing wards are only partially in the constituency )this does not seem typical safe labour seat territory to me. Much of the constituency is made up of leafy suburban streets which should be natural tory territory ( as evidenced by their councillors ) and should have formed the basis for a good campaign. They failed badly, the libs campaigned hard in those tory wards and left the tories to get their fingers burnt playing community politics they didnt understand. The tories tactics were completely and utterly wrong, if they cannot appeal to the many affluent voters in west london then their chances of moving on from their core voters in a GE seem slim indeed.
Anyone know why Cameron chose to use ‘David Cameron’s Conservatives’? No one would see it until they were in the voting booth by which time they would have made up their mind anyway. It’s also makes him look dangerously egocentric. Even Blair at his most popular would have been laughed off stage with a stunt like that
Firstly put your wings together for the big winners of last night ….. namely Jack W’s Pigeons who safely home in their respective political lofts pulled off a useful coo and now remain safe from the clutches of game pies for at least another set of by-elections.
And as for the other winners and losers …….
LABOUR. Excellent set of results that saw much smaller swings than many had predicted and certainly anything in the Brent South/Dunfermline range. An early GE remains a distinct possibility. A suitable smug smile on Labour supporters face is entirely appropriate this morning.
LIB DEMS. A bit mixed. A decent showing in Sedgefield pushing the Tories into third but on another day the LibDems would have shaved more from Labours majority. Consolidating second place in Ealing and seeing off the Tories will please the yellow peril and yet Labours majority was much greater than the Lib Dems were working on. On balance distinctly average for the by-election masters.
TORIES. Oh dear …. and yet it could have been so much worse. In Sedgefield Graham Robb ran a decent campaign that at least held off the BNP and ensured unlike Hartlepool they didn’t fall to fourth place !! ………… and then Ealing. But for Shapps I have no doubt that the Conservatives would be looking at 10-12% in this by-election. He prevented a meltdown but failed to manage expectations as the Lit persona and Cameron’s personal investment appeared to convey a distict “winning here” message, that then failed utterly
I think it also likely that the Lit/Blair donation picture may have prevented the Tories running the Lib Dems much closer. Those who thought an indidvidual could credibly donate to a party one minute and pop up as a parliamentary candidate for another party the next minute were deluded, the voters were not.
The Brown honeymoon continues apace
No-one seemed to pick up any momentum during either of these campaigns. Do people think that the results would have been substantially different if the campaigns had run for another couple of weeks?
19 Thanks Barry. If you post directions to the Telephone box that is hosting your ‘Party Conference’ I’m sure we’ll all look out for it.
56 “Yes, quite, I’m not sure why any self-respecting liberal-leftie would be cheering Gordon Brown’s victory.”
I am not a huge fan of New Labour, and would probably feel warmer to it if it was led by Cameron rather than Brown.
Your point about elastic is very true. The key thing is that Brown carries his party with him. Brown is a moderate and so is his party. Cameron is a moderate, but so much of his party is not.
54- Roger- I too have been worried about ukPaul’s posting of late.
Sorry about the slant on apples the other night- since I know nothing about computers, I thought apples had ceased business, a bit like the zx spectrum. Someone told me they are excellent on design.
Mike I agree with your sentiment. No great result for anybody in the circumstances though obviously Labour will be pleased.
What us Conservatives must avoid doing is hitting out internally.
I was dissappointed that Ealing Southall was not closer.
Richard’s point at 3 are well made and until the Conservatives (and to a certain extent the Lib Dems) can find solid answers will mean that they have no chance of making anything other than marginal progress. I think the ask may be too big for Cameron’s brand of glib PR.
The other point I’d make is when (and why) did the Tories ’stop doing by-elections’? Up until the early 80s they were the masters of by-elections having won places like Ashfield, Middlesbrough and Walthamstow - similar asks to Sedgfield and Ealing Southall I would have thought.
37,38 - But it is the centrist wing that is in control of the Tory party, not the right-wing. The SDP split occured because of the direction Foot was taking the party - perceived to be away from the centre ground.
If a similar split were going to occur for the Tories it would have done so over Europe ages ago, but the big Europhile Tory beasts (Clarke, Heseltine, Patten) have all stayed put.
I wonder what these results would look like once you plug in a bye-election to general election “swingback”?
36 - It superficially looks as though Respect simply split the left-of-Labour vote (taking votes from the Greens). So no sign of a “religious” vote at all.
“He is the Jabba the Hut of British politics, a big fat blob eating everybody else’s policy pies.”
top stuff - worth wading through the tripe for that one
[69] No, John - think it through: if Brown is Jabba, and DC is Leia, who has the ineffable Sean cast as Luke Skywalker?
65,
Tyson congratulations on your by election predictions, from what I read you were spot on.
Combined with cash for hounours, could have been a good cross and double payout, if you had your money on both.
56 seanT- reading your post here, no one last night came close to the literary and fluent way you comment on politics. You need to get a column in the Saturday Guardian.
I am not going to gloat too much, either on my long term posts on cash for honours- always said it was a complete waste of time, for chrissakes- Blair had led us to war on a lie, and everyone was getting excited about this complete non story (Yates is at fault here- the guy was obviously a self serving gobshite)
and Ealing- why did anyone think the voting patterns that had dominated UK by elections for 20 years were going to change? Why?
Even solid observers like sean fear and Nikky P were letting the spin and froth colour their normally excellent judgement.
56 - The BNP vote is not as simple as “peeling off to the right”, they basically have a right-wing explanation (blame immigrants) for a problem (lack of social housing) which has a left-wing solution (build more social housing).
The lack of social housing predates the recent increase of immigration - I doubt that any of the EU migrant workers are eligible for social housing anyway, they’d be involved with the buy-to-let rental market instead.
Neither Cameron or the Tories offer a solution to the problem of a lack of social housing, but Brown seems to eb doing so. It remains to be seen whether he can actually get it done (and get the credit).
I don’t think anyone should be especially pleased by these results. Labour losing significant amount of ground in fairly and very safe seats. Lib Dems not picking up either (and not really being that close). Conservatives being in third place in both.
Though it isn’t that bad for either. Labour won both. Lib Dems second both. Tories did slip into 4th and their vote went up a bit. Of course everyone will say “Cameron’s under threat”, but I doubt that. He took a gamble in Ealing, which I actually respect him for - he could have played it safe and never had a chance of doing well.
if Labour really want to have a by-election in a Tory seat they have one in the locker - just get Quentin Davies to stand down
59 (jgc) - That’s uncharitable. See:
5 (Test, a Tory) - “No question a very disappointing result for the blues.”
16 (Robin Wiggs, a Tory) - “..clearly disappointing considering where we need to be if we’re to be in a majority government position at the next GE.”
Lets not spin the spinning. Please.
Dez and Tyson (and Jack W if I remember rightly) I think we were alone among the slavering Mme Defarges on this site in predicting not only that there would be no charges but that Inspector Yates-of Paul Burrel fame- would be back on the beat before you could say Cluso!. The big question is can the Met afford any more Yates enquiries before he bankrupts them!
“I don’t think anyone should be especially pleased by these results.”
What about Phil Wilson and Virendra Sharma?
Big lesson for timing of by elections - hold them as quickly as possible to avoid opposition camapigns gaining momentum.
Instructive to loook atwhere Anti Labour swing went.
Southall Lab-7.3,Lib +3.2,Others +3.2,Con +0.9.
Sedgefield Lab -15.1,Lib +8.0,Oth 5.9, Con+0.2
The success of Others has not been mentioned.Given NO Anti Iraq candidate in Sedgefield Others success understated.
Think these results pose a real long term problem for Lib Dems.
They are peceived now as one of the main parties ,but the down side is that they are no longer the party of protest.
As in Local elections people are now prepare to vote for minor parties even though they have little chance of winning.
Rogerh
71 dez- thanks- I didn’t know the by election prediction competetion results were out yet? My tips have been pretty much on the money for some time now. And yes- I always posted here that cash for honours would come to a big zilch.
ES was a tough, brutal campaign for all of us activists, of whichever Party.
In the public’s eyes Labour/Brown has come out of it well (I’m gearing up for a spring election). LD’s - we held. Media coverage this morning grudgingly appreciative of that fact. Tory - bad result becasue possible outcome ramped too high and Cameron attached himself too close to now pass off third position. Consequently, media line this morning is ES was a bad result for Cameron.
This can only be good for Lab and the LD’s.
B**** hard work this business sometimes!
FWIW, I think the Tories would have done a lot better in ES with a different (not necessarily better) candidate. The Labour donation thing was a spectacular own goal, and I feel sorry for the poor footsoldiers in the Conservative ranks who had to explain that away on the doorsteps.
Timothy: “The BNP vote is not as simple as “peeling off to the right”, they basically have a right-wing explanation (blame immigrants) for a problem (lack of social housing) which has a left-wing solution (build more social housing).
The lack of social housing predates the recent increase of immigration - I doubt that any of the EU migrant workers are eligible for social housing anyway, they’d be involved with the buy-to-let rental market instead.”
- interesting and useful post, thanks.
Why do I keep reading on a few websites that Alan Hope in Sedgefield got 147 votes? When I asked someone in the media room at Ealing at 3:30am, she specifically said that he got 129.
65 Tyson - upsetting Apple users is a lot more dangerous than upsetting Tories, you will need to be careful for a while until people forget your unwarranted slurs
Defunct! The company dominating with the iPod and about to generate a lot more publicity with the iPhone and they make much better computers.
73. That’s a little simplistic. The increasing BNP vote is not just about social housing. Though that is, of course, something to do with it.
Stopping immigration overall is surely the BNP’s USP, though they espouse other values that were once traditionally Tory. They are virtually the only party to say stuff political correctness, bring back the noose, sod the EU, etc. UKIP do it, but they are a joke. The BNP are no longer a joke. Their underlying agenda is sinister, but their overt opinions are not that outrageous. Indeed a lot of their opinions were once standard Tory fare - the tough no-nonsense rightwingery of “working class Tories”.
These are the people who Maggie successfully courted, who deserted the Tories in 97. DC has moved further away from them, rather than nearer. 2500 of them went to the BNP yesterday, which should depress us all.
A decent home should be found for these voters; it used to be the Tories.
Short answer - none of them, labour lost a shedload of votes and vote share, tories didn’t advance and they have to to be credible and lib dems have to win by elections to increase profile and they didn’t.
Above all, and I’m not going to back off on this, the whole corrupt political system has been blown open because all of the evidence to charge in cash for honours has been ignored. In people’s eyes, on a day when we are told that crime is stable (huh?), they see a bunch of white collar crooks get away with it. It’s as bad as the Scooter Libby pardon.
Politicians have just taken a step further into the gutter with this, the activists on here just help them believe they are doing no wrong and they share a lot of that shame.
A total change, with current parties ripped apart and reconstituted, would be nice but people are too apathetic to even realise they are being regularly shafted by the political class. We have an electoral system that doesn’t reflect the will of the electorate, a broken backed union, an economy based on hope and they are oblivious.
I hope nobody on this thread has tried to justify the cash for honours stuff, there really is no excuse.
We know what will happen in a by-election in a Tory stronghold - the same as happened in Bromley. And what will happen in the next Labour stronghold that comes up? What happened in Sedgefield.
Cameron will be very careful now, he’s had his fingers burnt.
86 - “sod the EU” is not a traditionally Tory view. It has only really been a Tory view since 1997.
On quite a lot of issues, the BNP are left wing - national socialists if you like. I don’t think they pick up too many disaffected Tories; I would suggest that a lot of their voters have previously voted Labour.
Re 84, John Looney, I typed the results in as they were announced to put on my blog and Alan Hope got 147 votes.
Re 61 yes, Jack, I think you’re summarising it more astutely than Mike. It’s better than ‘goodish’ for Lab.
50:
Which MP would you wish dead?
How incredibly nauseating.
Tories at 4 on betfair for overall majority.
2007 election - good odds at 10.
77- Dez, and Roger- the investigation was always going to be more about Yates’s delusional meglamania a la Kenneth Starr
Yates is obviously a maverick- he was given this case probably as a poison chalice- someone high up has got it in for him knowing full well that he would cock it up.
But the whole cash for honours charade has been grossly embarrassing for the UK. The likes of Mugabe, and others internationally have used it to suggest that the political establishment here is completely corrupt. Even my in laws (Italian) have said that it is has been reported there- Blair questioned by police was the story. They think UK politics is the same as Sicily.
It was actually one of the main reasons why I stopped posting here. I got fed up going into the threads to read and comment on the drivel posted here. And this clamour to get people arrested, convicted and imprisoned was appalling. It became worse than the baying crowds at the ampitheatre.
And people like ukPaul’s hysterical post last night. This outrage expressed now because they cannot witness the spectacle of innocent people’s lives ruined just because they are attached to the Labour party. Pathetic- and they should all be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
The posts I’m reading that these results are good for labour really are not credible, actually I hope that Brown listens to them because he will lose an election with this sort of swing. Neat psychology from non-labour voters if that’s what they are doing.
Come on Gordon, call an election, come on, you know you want to……
How anyone could be surprised by either result is beyond me. Sedgefield was easy enough but Ealing. There were 3 big things at work that made my decision within a few seconds of looking at it.
-Labour had nearly half the vote in Ealing last time, in 2005 when a fair number of Labour supporters nationally sat at home or went Lib Dem
-You had an opposition vote that was fairly even split
-You had Brown in as PM and with it an attendant drift of Labour voters back to their normal voting patterns
Call me a mere amateur for not doing detail but add those together and anything but a Labour hold would have been a shock.
As for the Conservatives and not doing by-elections. Learn.
Violent criminals are being let out early, many won’t get good supervision, it’ll propbably take forever for new prison places, NHS Trusts are laying off staff despite a huge splurge in spending.
How many easy targets do you need?
You’ve hit a reasonably positive note over the improved tax position for married couples. Have you followed it up?
Nah.
I’ve said it before (before Portillo in the Times so I’m not just copying) and I’ll say it again, get some steel.
Tory critics are correct, its all fur coat and no knickers on Cameron’s part.
86,
Seant the BNP candidate in Sedgfield was one of the leading fuel protestors.
Saw him do his speech last night after the count.
Don`t know if that means much, but he had a populist cause once that had its week in the sun, then evaporated as quick as a summer showe in cost del sol.
95 - Paul, it’s not psychology. I do actually think it’s good for Labour. Governing parties often get hammered in by-elections. Major, on his honeymoon, got slaughtered in Ribble Valley - 25% swing or something of that order.
I reckon had ES happened with Blair as leader, the result would have been different
Let’s see a few opinion polls. I thought there’d be a Brown bounce, and I don’t think I’m wrong. But will he cut and run? And will Cameron and co keep demanding an election is called asap?
82, The issue is not Lit, but DC’s bad decision to select him as a candidate, and wheel him out as the ‘new’ conservatives. To portray Lit in this light under the title of Camerons Conservatives, in an apparently unwinnable seat speaks of the stupidity of the man and his advisors. He set himself and his supporters up for this fall and deserves all the blame.
Paul. You sound like a very bitter Cameroonie and not a very bright one at that. Unless you want to join the Will L-scroll past fast-I’d try being a little more circumspect. If you have any further evidence on the ‘cash for honours or evidence that the PCS are bent then take it to the police. as for your reading of last night’s results……..enough said!
If there had been any kind of united anti-Labour campaign in ES, the seat could have fallen.
The ES result simply highlights the sickening double standards and hypocrisy of the Lib Dems - delighted to be involved in tactical voting when it benefits them, and stubbornly refusing to do so against the Labour government.
I think I am largely vindicated by my opinion that certain Tory posters were setting themselves up for a fall.
I agree that the Lib Dems’ performance was mediocre, but only based on this by-election form that they have. I think at the end of the day Labour have done very well in holding both with really a great deal of ease, at this point in the electoral cycle after 10 years. You can’t have it both ways abd blame the Brown Bounce: Brown is not new and is not seen as such by the electorate, yet they chose in great part more of “the same”. People believe in the macro Blair-Brown “New Labour” agenda of capitalism with a social conscience.
Cameron needs to be very careful now. In my eyes this reinforces to idea that the Conservatives need to continue the grasp for the centre ground - after all that is where the great weight of electoral opinion is. However he cannot ignore the constant hounding in his era about the lack of right-wing policies. His reaction should, though, not be reactive to this hounding but to actually produce some solid policies at conference this year, which have centrist appeal and which do challenge the party both intellectually and emotionally. It is only through going such a catharsis that he can push on towards the victory at the next generaly election which I certainly believe is in him.
re 99 spot on. Lab learned it had to take central control of by-elections and keep many people off short-list. But it this fairly smartly and mostly kept local parties and members on board. it certainly didn’t start imposing non-members as candidates or putting TB’s name on the ballot! DC’s judgement is starting to look flaky.
I am on the phone to Alan Hope at the moment and he confirms that he got 129 not 147.
If the spinning will cease for a moment…….an attempt to look at the electoral runes dispassionately.
I did not expect a result any different to what we have in ES because the Labour majority was so big and the polls are so positive as people give Brown the benefit of the doubt.
The Tories might have hoped for second place but that was unlikely as Labour and Tory voters rarely move as a mass from one of these parties to another even in by elections unless the government is so unpopular as to be completely terminal.
Mostly they move to a protest position, a half way house of abstention or a third party - and that is what often gives the Libs a boost at by elections that fades in general elections.
So this election suggests that the government is not terminally unpopular but has real electoral weaknesses when it loses a significant share of the vote (7%) while the opposition parties increase theirs - Tories by under 1% and the LibDems by 3%.
An autumn election would be a real risk for the government and the opposition. The government because a similar weak defence elsewhere would lose them seats, and for the Libs and Tories because, although they improved on their general election vote share, nearly half of the lost Labour vote clearly went to other parties not to them.
54 - Roger, you want an argument? You are the biggest labour tub thumper out. You’ve been pontificating about no charges in cash for honours. Well, you look just as corrupt as the rest of them now. There are millions of people like me who are just sick to the back teeth of the political system. We are angry and your smug arrogance just makes that more so. If I was you I’d keep away from the subject.
Yet again I attacked Will L last night by the way; you just don’t get it roger do you? You really are insulated away from the world, look at the fall in the labour vote, look at minor parties doing well. Now *think*.
92.
MPs can leave a seat without shuffling off to the House of Lords in the sky.
Take Sedgefield for instance.
58 - Dez, I’m angry because of cash for honours, the by elections are minuscule in comparison and everyone lost out in them so who cares?
101 - “The ES result simply highlights the sickening double standards and hypocrisy of the Lib Dems - delighted to be involved in tactical voting when it benefits them, and stubbornly refusing to do so against the Labour government.”
I think that’s probably the funniest line I have read here in a while!
1) Why would you assume Liberal Democrats would want to vote for a party containing some hang’em flog’em sod’ems like Ann Winterton, Bill Cash and David Amess? These individuals are the most unpalatable characters on the floor of the House of Commons. It is wrong to assume that Liberal Democrat voters en masse would rather have a Tory than a Labour MP or government.
2) It is rather odd that you think that the party that finished second last time should have its voters switch to the party that finished third. Not very tactical, eh?
100- Roger- Will L effectively called me a rapist on the thread last night. I don’t mind banter here, some of it quite rough, but thought that it was taking things too far.
On the late post he (Will L) started impersonating Punter to go well below the belt on poor stonch. The idiot though forgot to change his name back to Will L on later posts and completely exposed himself. Comical reading- and ukPaul did point this out.
The swing against Labour in Ealing Southall is the smallest against a Governing party since the 1982 Beaconsfield byelection.
Clearly Tony Lit is the next Conservative Prime Minister in about ~16 years.
65 - dez, roger and tyson commenting on me? No surprise that it’s a group of new labour supporters is it? You know full well my disklike of your party, the sheer anti-liberalism of it and being in hock to neo-con foreign policy, on top of that I’m afraid that cash for honours will not be forgotten. I thought that the government would pay a price but if they don’t then I shall do my but to make it as uncomfortable as possible for those who stuill support them.
(and I hope you have a good day too)
69 / 70 Innocent. Don’t take it too literally
Tyson, Roger,
The writing was on the wall when the Police arrested Des Smith a headmaster for boasting to a journalist he had contacts.
For gods sake the cells would be full of teachers and other proffesionals if they carried on like this.
Kenneth Starr is the right comparison delusional reaction in the first instance set the agenda.
Uk paul would be the fist to complain if any member of his proffession were treated like Mr Des Smith, bet it nearly ruined his life for some in approriate comments.
106, you’re getting seriously boring now.
Your line goes ‘I think Labour are guilty, so Labour must be guilty.’
Do you honestly expect Labour supporters (of which there are still an awful lot judging by last night’s results and the opinion polls) to put up with that without attacking your utter lack of a reasoned argument?
106- ukPaul- to your credit you poibnted out Will L’s impersonating others.
If any of you here want a laugh go to last nights thread (circa 2.00am I think) and the posting exchange between stonch, Will L and Will L impersonating Punter. Classic stuff.
72 - I agree tyson that people fell or the spin on these by elections, every day you could see the reality being perverted. The tory spin made people change their perception so that, now, it’s seen as a good result for labour when that isn’t the case. Think back to when they were called, both easy labour holds, I said that all along but so many were imagining something different. As it happens, the result compared to what you might expect was poor for all parties. Bin the spin is what I say….
O/T Brown is in the Elysée at the moment for a first meeting with Sarkozy.
I’m not sure if they will get along well (VERY different kind of politicians) but they are not supposed to talk about difficult subjects (Europe, economic policies…), just the usual consensual ones (Africa, global warming,…).
Re 104, Johny Looney, really? Well 147 was what the returing officer said, but then the BBC do love to speak over the top of them so maybe I got it wrong.
109 - it’s called repaying the favour.
Countless times throughout the last decade, Tory supporters in Labour seats have voted Lib Dem where that would be the most effective way to put pressure on the incumbant.
The LDs unashamedly (and effectively) encourage this with their ‘winning here’ spin, and squeezing the soft Tory vote where possible.
I wouldn’t have a problem with this *if* they gave a little back once in a while.
Instead, they’ll happily take votes from the Tories under the deluded premise that they are in a position to win the seat even when they are not, and then to add insult to injury, use the reduced number of votes for the Tory candidate as a taunting stick with which to beat them.
Tony Lit was a good candidate, his share of the vote held up, but the usual LD by-election machine was in effect, and so as expected by many (myself included) Labour triumphed against divided opposition. Would it be too much to ask for the LDs to say ‘nah, you take him on this time?’ once in a while. They did that with Martin Bell… oh, wait, the incumbant was a Tory there wasn’t he. Double standards again.
I find the whole LD approach despicably underhanded. I can just see them rubbing their hands with glee every time an MP dies. I guess a 70-year-old getting elected is seen as a pretty damn good result in itself…
If UKPaul is convinced that the Labour result was poor last night, can we have some honest opinions from all pbers about the likely GE result next spring. Based on figures please and not wishful thinking.
I will suggest a small Labour majority 25-30 seats.
100 - Roger, I’d stop now if I was you before things get nasty. You know what I am and it’s not what you try and paint me as, you want to look like a fool then try and say I’m a Cameroonie when I’ve just spent the last few weeks attacking every single party, I’m angry at your cash for honours stuff, period. No charges will just make me ensure that it isn’t brushed under the carpet the way you hope.
120 - you’re being daft. The Tories don’t voluntarily “lend” votes to the Liberals - voters just choose the Liberals over the Tories. The fact that Liberals voters are less inclined to switch the other way is something you have to live with.
Dave H
For a start, I suspect large swathes of Labour voters will probably shrug their shoulders and reckon its standard practice for politicians to be involved in all sorts of back hand, back door dealings, just like large sections of Tory & Lib Dem voter do as well. Activists, hand on heart probably believe much the same.
Secondly, I suspect the person keeping most quiet about this will be Gordo himself. If the claims of friends of Tony Blair are true then it hastened Tony’s exit. I’m sure Gordo couldnt give a fiddlers under those circumstances.
Thirdly it would do some of those involved no good at all to start trying to sue anyone or making a big play of it. People get investigated over all kinds of issues a every day and few get charged with anything including killers and rapsists and so on.
Fourthly, the cops may well have to mount a rear guard action for simply doing their job if people start throwing flak at them and, from my experience in Northern Ireland, thats a really stupid position to put them in because they know plenty. Just because the CPS didnt go ahead with any prosecution, it means nothing if people want to get dirty over it on both sides.
Those involved will be urged by plenty of people with influence to shut up and just quietly move on.
77 Roger. Indeed. I’ve been highly critical of the whole cash for coronets shambles. Unless one of the fingered few was incredibly stupid then this investigation was going nowhere fast … or slow as it turned out.
An utter and complete waste of time and money. We all “know” … wink wink .. that for decades all parties have flogged peerages to pay for the running costs of party. So be it. At least I’m not paying for the “honour” in more than one sense !!
109 - Quite right SBS, people like Winterton, Leigh et al are the reason that the tories are destined to fail in the future. If Cameron had the guts he’d get rid of them now and manufacture a row, does he have the guts or is he frightened of them and the Heffer/Philips/Hitchens’ that support them? I think he’s scared of them.
116 - when Punter next emerges, he’s going to be pretty hacked off about Will impersonating him. I was less bothered about him posting under a *spoof* of my name - that’s not impersonation really - but he was actually pretending to be Punter when he got caught out. Nasty piece of work - another ban is in the offing hopefully.
Where is Test? Not being nasty, just will be interested to see what she makes of these results.
114/115 Dez/Dave H- what blatantly annoyed me about comments (ie ukpaul’s) on cash for honours is that they have been presented as objective, reasoned, non partisan. This was tosh- they let their hatred of the Labour party delude them into thinking that the cash for honours investigation was about dealing with corrupt politicians and spin masters who deserved to go to prison.
And Dave H- I can’t help of thinking of people like Ruth Turner, Des Smyth, even Levy himself- all who have gone through months of raw anxiety.
It was clear that when Yates switched the investigation from cash for honours- no joy there, to perverting the course of justice- the guy was a delusional maverick a la Starr, willing to bring the political establishment into disrepute to get himself a reputation.
Yates is a vile character, one of those hateful meglamaniacs who doesn’t care about anyone else. There will be massive fall out over this.
116 - when Punter next emerges, he’s going to be pretty hacked off about Will impersonating him. I was less bothered about him posting under a *spoof* of my name - that’s not impersonation really - but he was actually pretending to be Punter when he got caught out. Nasty piece of work - another ban is in the offing hopefully.
Where is Test? Not being nasty, just will be interested to see what she makes of these results.
O/T Gordo and Sarko “ready to go to Darfur together” !!
witan - you’re making me laugh.
remember these by elections?
Dudley West 1994 - Labour beat Tories on a 28% swing
South East Staffs 1995 - Labour beat Tories on a 22% swing
Wirral South 1996 - Labour beat Tories on a 17% swing
These are the kind of results your party needs to win the general election.
[Sorry for double post above]
126 - I think that’s right. The real malcontents in the Tory party may look and sound like a lot of grassroots Tories but lets be honest - if the party split, the vast majority of members and voters would go for the Cameron/moderniser side because they want to win. So if he needs to have a bloody battle with all these far right bods like Leigh and Winterton, he should. Otherwise they’re constantly there to remind everyone of the worst aspects of the Tory party.
130. What for?
115 - You misrepresent me, do you think that after Hutton people thought that the findins were true? No they didn’t. Too much is now in the public domain (with more to come) that people will reach a very different conclusion about Levy et al.
Politics has been sullied, once this was ionvestigated some form of trial was necessary to stop the public thinkin