Labour’s YouGov lead jumps to 7%
July 21st, 2007
The pressure builds up on Cameron
Another big boost to Brown’s Labour comes with a YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times showing the party now has a 7% margin. These are the shares compared with the last YouGov poll three weeks ago - CON 33% (-2): LAB 40% (+2): LD 15% (nc).
Also in tomorrow’s papers is a report in the Sunday Telegraph that “At least two Conservative MPs – and possibly as many as six – have called for a vote of no confidence in David Cameron’s leadership of the party”.
Under the party rules a total of 29 MPs have to request a vote which is then put immediately to MPs. The last time this happened was in October 2003 when Iain Duncan Smith was ousted.
UPDATE: Mori gives Labour a 6% lead
Another poll out tomorrow, from Ipsos-Mori for the Observer, has CON 35% (-1): LAB 41%(+2): LD 15% (nc). So fairly similar figures from a range of pollsters.
Mike Smithson
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The Brown bounce is real - but we will have to wait until the end of the summer for the real polling position.
As to DC, these MPs (edward leigh cough) are out of their minds if they think the membership wouldn’t back him now by even more than they did the first time around.
Our Gawd : “October general election please your Majesty !”
Liz Windsor : “So one’s going to piss all over the Tories once again is one ?!”
Our Gawd : “Me and roger maam, we certainly are !!
Test, much as I hate to disagree, the membership rumblings are real and there are those who are saying they will abstain. They exist and we have to deal with them.
That said, I still think in an uncontested election there would be a massive support. However I don’t think beating Davis or Hague would be as easy.
We need to put this wobble behind us and move on. All those who commented the Tories only panic in a crisis are right. Don’t panic, because it isn’t a crisis!
We ran a reasonably good campaign in Ealing Southall. It was never going to be a win, and we were wrong to ramp it as much as we did. But we have managed (thanks Grant Shapps) to put the Lib Dem dragon to the sword.
I won’t comment on Mark Field’s reported comments as I haven’t seen the full transcript.
1 - the Brown bounce is real but still relatively small. If the reports of Cons MPs writing to the 1922 are true they are bl**dy fools!
As many people have said now needs cool heads to wait until after the Conferences before forming a judgement!
1,3 but I thought under Conservative rules if the 29 letters from MPs are received it becomes a straight vote of confidence by MPs not members. I don’t think it will happen but it is MPs views of David Cameron that matter.
1 The membership would no more be allowed a vote on Cameron if he were toppled in a Palace coup than they were on IDS, as he would be disbarred from standing. I cannot see it happening, as it would effectively mean the end of the Conservative Party as the one Nation faction, voters and MPs walk out, a large chunk to the Lib Dems especially a Nick Clegg led Party. That maybe the fantasy of Timothy Montgomerie and Edward Leigh, a “Purified Party”, but the insanity of it and residual loyalty of even people like Bill Cash means the loons are in single figures. But it doesn’t help Cameron that the White Coat tendency are spreading this poison
It’s Fields is it? He took his front bench sacking REALLY badly.
Oh Gawd. Five more years of Nu Labour dictatorship, governed by shysters, mutants, and halfwitted hypocrites.
All the more reason to emigrate.
When a man is tired of London, he is tired of rain.
Those MP’s deserve a slap.
End of.
Tim M would never support that. He’s not stupid. Leigh is another matter.
“The Conservative Party only panics in a crisis.”
5. That’s true and it won’t happen. However what is driving it is a lack of policies. We seem to have this desire to have something to stay - people are asking “what does David Cameron stand for” and I’m not sure I can answer that question. Brown is cleverly playing on it and that is even more maddening. The fact that the media are compliant in calling this Brown Government a new government is equally galling - it is a reshuffle not a new government!
6. I don’t think it would actually happen that obviously - no “Gang of Four” moment. However what would happen is that the nuts would come back to the fore and we Cameronites who really do love the party would go back to simply working away from the inside rather than trying to drag the party back into the real world.
It could be that this is the last writhings of a dying resistance…
re 1,3 & 5. The rules of the party are very straightforward. Only the parliamentary party has the power to oust the leader and there has to be a 15% margin based not on those who vote but on the total of Tory MPs.
When it come to electing the leader the finally decision is with the membership who choose from a short-list of two voted upon by the parliamentary party.
I stick with the view I set out this morning that Cameron’s best strategy is to put his leadership on the line. He needs to take the initiative. Assuming he got to the final two in the MPs ballot he would probably win the member’s ballot.
But how long can the Tories go on doing this? They can’t go on ousting leaders - surely?
7. I’m not naming Mark Fields as the source! God that would get me shot locally - his mother-in-law is my Branch Chairman!
No, the PA report on the previous thread mentioned comments from him attacking the campaign in Ealing Southall, comments that I have not yet read. I merely said that I wouldn’t comment on THEM until I had read them.
9 & 11 Agreed!
9. Do you think we could run a competition to slap them for Comic Relief? Or do you think the BBC would fix it…
12 I seem to remember that the Queen invited Brown to form a Government and he certainly booted out a lot of the last one.
Cameron’s mistake was not to confront the Right in his honeymoon period. He made some pretty speeches but he didn’t make them commit to any change of substance. He won’t be able to do it now.
12 I seem to remember that the Queen invited Brown to form a Government and he certainly booted out a lot of the last one.
Cameron’s mistake was not to confront the Right in his honeymoon period. He made some pretty speeches but he didn’t make them commit to any change of substance. He won’t be able to do it now.
sorry
13 Mike S. Whilst Cammy and Mrs Dale are in Rwanda the Tory cats come out to play !!
How many in the Tombstone mob …. 40 ish ….. game on !!!
13 Mike S - NO NO NO. One swallow doesn’t make a summer. One bad week doesn’t make a crisis. Two good polls don’t make a trend.
IT’S A BROWN HONEYMOON.
Just because the LDs dumped Kennedy in response to the Cameron Honeymoon doesn’t mean we will dump Cameron in response to Brown! We have a good leader who is about to be announcing a raft of policies, which will finally give him something to actually say. NOT A TIME TO DUMP HIM AND NO-ONE OTHER THAN THE MEDIA WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT THAT. Oh, other than Edward Leigh and his idiots.
14. “No, the PA report on the previous thread mentioned comments from him attacking the campaign in Ealing Southall, comments that I have not yet read. I merely said that I wouldn’t comment on THEM until I had read them.”
Ben, I think that’s what you need to read:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2007/07/mark-field-mp-s.html
4 And you seriously thought 3 LibDem MP’s were going to defect to your shambles of a party ?
The by elections were fluff compared to the CforH revelations and unlike the latter will be forgotten quickly. They have, however, thrown up what could be the defining moments for both Brown and Cameron.
Brown likes to play safe but must know in his heart that he has to go to the country now, while he is in this honeymoon period. He must have nightmares of making the wrong decision but if he chooses not to choose then Brown will have failed his test.
Cameron also, according to the news reports, is faced with having to take the path that he wanted to avoid, that is, to cut adrift or destroy the malcontents on his right. He has no idea how that would play out in electoral terms and would prefer to keep all on board but his hand looks to have been forced. Will he try and duck this or will he make a very public show of it? This is Cameron’s unexpected choice.
The one who chooses to take on his challenge, the one who dares to think the apparently unthinkable may well win. Brown has the biggest decision because he could make the Cameron one unnecessary. Will he make a decision now or not?
16. Prime Minister, Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Minister of Justice, Defence Secretary, Transport, Communities & Local Government, Health, DEFRA, DBERR, Work & Pensions, and DIUS all members of the Blair Cabinet. Hardly new…
Re 14, Ben,, “Do you think we could run a competition to slap them for Comic Relief? Or do you think the BBC would fix it…”
no need, we just form an orderly queue of all the people who have worked so hard to get us elected and carry on until there is nothing left to bury.
(I really am that angry with this sort of sh1te)
2 MPs - two WHOLE Mps?
Wow!
You’d get 2 MPs in the Libs who wanna change the leader at any given moment, let alone the back stabbing masters of execution the Tories!
Hell, you’d probably get odd moments when 2 MPs in Plaid Cymru wanna change their leader for that matter!
19 Ben. Me thinks you do make a capital protest too much !!
13 - And you are as wrong tonight as you were this morning (being a minority of one in a long thread). There is no appetite whatsover for another leadership contest. I thought (generously) that you were just trying to be provocative to get the discussion going, but if you truly believe such nonsense then… well…
Mike,
Do you really think that Cameron is in such a dire position?
Latest Forecast (based on July average and election drift)
Lab 38% (+2% on Election 2005) winning 380 seats (+31 seats)
Con 32% (-1% on Election 2005) winning 192 seats (-18 seats)
LDm 19% (-4% on Election 2005) winning 44 seats (-18 seats)
Oth 11% (+3% on Election 2005) winning 34 seats (+ 5 seats)
Lab lead of 6% (+3% on Election 2005) with a majority of 110.
25 The report says 2 to 6 MP’s
9 benedict- agreed, they deserve a good slap and a good kick in the gonads- people should know that being in a political party requires discipline, if they want to f*** around, do it by themselves and away from damaging others who work damned hard.
Why now I could never be involved in politics- I couldn’t stick the constraints this puts on you.
Not sure this is a Brown Bounce - more a Cameron Collapse.
Oh my Ears and Whiskers, this is fun!!!
Some more poll news in the Observer:
Another survey, for The Observer, put Labour six points ahead of the Conservatives and recorded Mr Brown’s party breaking through the 40% barrier in a major newspaper poll for the first time in two years.
The Mori survey put Labour on 41% (up two points from a similar poll a month ago), the Tories on 35% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats on 15% (unchanged).
Mr Brown also gained a personal seal of approval from those questioned, with his satisfaction rating - reached by subtracting the percentage dissatisfied with his performance from those declaring them satisfied - standing at plus-16.
By comparison, Mr Cameron’s rating was minus-four and Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell’s minus-10.
:: Ipsos Mori interviewed 1,068 adults between July 12 and 17 - before the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections
30 - That’s rather a bizarre spread of numbers to give, does that mean that two MPs have given them four more possible names then?
30 - That’s rather a bizarre spread of numbers to give, does that mean that two MPs have given them four more possible names then?
12 You are very much mistaken. It’s also an incorrect analogy. The Gang of Four tried to set up a new Party from scratch. Their biggest mistake if they’d simply fused with the Liberals straight away as they eventually did, they would have been far better off. You would I think in that particular scenario undoubtedly see several high profile defections, and the mass desertion of those Tory voters who identify themselves as One Nation to pollsters.
Mr Smithson. No. For this reason they will never get the signatures for starters. Look at the agonising it took before they moved against IDS, and even those very much at odds with DC know he is light years better. Also your course would be hari kiri. Even if DC won the Party would be emotionally shatterd and Brown certain to go the Country. The best course for DC is simple, get the policies ready, wait for the autumn, and with the first Govt cock up as they will go for the throat
27 John O. I also think it unlikely …. but then the Conservatives are also called the “stupid party” !!
It’s the appearance of division that will hurt. Just been featured quite strongly on the main BBC news ….. Ouch !!
Hmm all these polls are making it clear that Btown has gained from lib dems, the key to the election is Ming, can he actually mobilise an anti-government feeling? Does he have it in him? As it is he is giving Brown a nice early Christmas present.
30 - no, it says “at least 2 and possibly as many as 6″ - that is not quite the same as ‘2 to 6′, and whilst I despise the Tories with a passion, this is the second nonsense story about them we’ve had in 2 days!
If I remember there was at least 1 Tory MP going to defect to Labour and possibly as many as 5 - well it wasn’t was it? It was just 1!
I don’t think Cameron has much to worry about - if anything, a leadership challenge now could actually help him out by showing the grumps that they don’t have majority support. Better to sort them out now than wait until just before an election.
37 Roger may well see his 10% poll lead next week .
37 - But not THAT stupid
re 28. When this sort of rumbling starts it needs to be brought to a head. This story is not going to go away until there is a resolution.
20. Thanks Andrea. Having read it, I’ll check what he says with two friends who are senior Ealing Conservatives, and if necessary pass a slap down the line via my Branch Chairman!
24. Benedict agreed. Tombstone should be their epitaph…
Almost sounds like Militant…
33. Yes but only three men and a dog read the Observer so no one really cares what they say…!
9.”Those MP’s deserve a slap.
End of.”
Benedict, I agree and I think if the reports are true then this time I will gamble that they have made a mistake of major proportions with their own colleagues never mind the wider membership.
13.”But how long can the Tories go on doing this? They can’t go on ousting leaders - surely?”
Mike, no they can’t, and I think the majority realise that which is why this is going to backfire big time and give Cameron the backing to finally sort out this cabal where his predecessors have failed to do so.
I think the wrath of the other MP’s and ordinary members would make what happened with IDS look like a tea party. Their are some who still think that they have the luxury of doing this sort of thing because they think that as long term members of a small exclusive club they can do what the hell they like what ever the consequences, but this time I think we are all ready to tell them where to go!!
43 - Quite. He should find out who they are and withdraw the whip.
Has Cameron cancelled his visit to Africa yet?
I suppose the logic of Cameron going to Africa is that it is one of the few places he can see people even worse off than himself.
In the immortal words of beyond the fringe “There is always somebody worse off than you are. And it is the policy of the C, Con, Conservative party to keep things that way”
43 - I agree with Mike, Cameron has to have a showdown with them. You only have to read some of the rubbish on ConHome to see that they need confronting (okay, many are trolls but not all of them surely).
With reselection still being carried out I would think any disloyalty right now could be fatal to an MPs career.
43 Just wait. How about a high profile deselection pour encourager le autres
Re 31, Tyson, many thanks, there is a constraint about what you can shout to the media but it ain’t that bad.
47 - Rwanda’s an important issue, something that I was involved with, with my students. If lib dems keep giving support to Brown then the chance of a hung parliament disappears. Think on that.
46. “He should find out who they are and withdraw the whip. ”
Why withdrawing the whip? If Labour had withdrown the whip to all who tried to oust Blair during the years, there will be few people left on the green benches…
Re 46, Alex, but only after I have had a chance to beat them with it for a while.
52. I hope you don;t mean literally.
Interestingly Rwanda is the issue that first got me active - raising money for the IRC whilst the world watched, clutching it’s hands.
Whilst Brown gives £8billion for a photoshoot with Nelson Mandela, Cameron is going there to help. Yes, it will be an important photoshoot and that is why he’s doing it, but what he does will make a lasting impact as well.
The LibDems are being squeezed. As DC used to say, it’s a return to two party politics…!
52 - Err, re-reading that I meant studying the background to the genocide not being involved in it. :blush:
55 Yes Ben , LibDems squeezed into 2nd place by the Conservatives on Thursday , the 2 party politics consisted of Labour and LibDems .
1 Test
You are gracious enough to acknowledge that the moggy is full of bounce and anything but moribund. I’d like to find some words of support for you in return and the best I can do is confirm my ageement that it’s the wrong time to be taking the polls seriously. You say ‘end of summer’. I say later than that - after the Conferences perhaps. If you are seven points behind then, you have a problem. Meanwhile, cool heads and resolve are what’s called for.
If the reports of the two/six MPs are true, they must be bonkers. I’d be furious with them if I were a Party activist, or supporter even. And this leads me on by a circuitous route to my altogether unoriginal view of the by-election results.
Superficially they were good for Gordon, OK for Ming and poor for DC. The underlying reason why they were good for Gordon however is that they allowed the Party to continue its course unassailed by doubts about its objectives and leadership. The other two Parties have doubts about both and they were increased by the results, particularly in the case of DC.
That leads me to the conclusion that the problem with the Conservative Party at present is not DC, but the Party itself. It continues to be fractious and given to squabbling. This outburst by the two/six is symptomatic. Until the Party puts its house in order, it has no chance. It won’t help to keep changing the leader.
As a democrat, I see the importance of a strong opposition. We don’t have one and I’m surprised at how far from being one the Conservative Party remains.
For the first time since I struck the bet with Mike, the 7/1 I offered against an early election is starting to look generous.
Good luck. I think you and your fellow Party supporters are going to need it.
I discounted the idea of a “back me or sack me” moment by DC when Mike suggested it the other day, but frankly things are looking very bleak, the grumbles from the hard right are damaging but not threatening … at the same time DC needs to suggest to the electorate that he has some steel (!) and to challenge the Brown honeymoon, some kind of visible challenge to the dissenters on the right of the party that would be reinforced with the announcement of a firm policy framework within the next month might be the best option… perhaps Mike has a point, a new leadership election maybe not… but DC needs to get into a proper scrap not prance around the issue, challenge the “bas*ards”! and then press it home with some coherent policy proposals… the speech at conference would be the ideal launch pad (unless Brown calls an election for October– in which case I think we’d be in very a nasty fix).
re 58. PtP I’ll agree to close the bet down now for £35. I cant be more generous than that.
Spare a thought for poor Gordon Brown. Given his cautious nature, he must be suffering the torments of the damned at this moment. He is being forced to make a decision which he could potentially bitterly regret for the rest of his life.
He is probably thinking of the famous lines from Julius Caesar by his favourite playwright Shakespeare(because he is English, and Gordon loves everything English):
“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”
He is also probably thinking of the Scottish Play, where Macbeth is pushed on to act boldly by his wife, with disastrous consequences.
I almost feel sorry for him. (”Almost” being the operative word for someone who has picked my pocket for ten years)
Mark Senior I can’t even be bothered to rise to the bait.
PtP that is a seriously good point. As a party the Conservatives need to understand the need for unity and agreement on the major issues. We also need to be prepared to accept that not everyone in the party will agree on everything and keep quiet when we disagree - just like Labour did in the early nineties.
There is still a lot of goodwill towards DC in the party - people want him to succeed. The problem lies with those who only read the Telegraph or the Mail as their newspapers but are not yet aware they are UKIP/Tombstone newspapers. We need to get them back so they are Cameroons rather than loons.
Otherwise it won’t just be our old age Brown has stolen. It’ll be everything else as well.
53. Interesting that this comes on the back of a fraught 1922 meeting. I wonder if a couple of MP’s in a little cable are trying to flex their muscles in a fit of pique at being told at long last that they need to start being a team, and that damaging criticism of their own leader and party is just that. Funny how the story made its way into the papers, especially when if true I assume those involved are happy to enjoy the anonymity they receive in this process?
54.Benedict, join the queue.
58- Peter the Punter- good post. agree with everything you say here. The last thing we need is a 1 party state and unless the centre right get their house in order that is where we are heading.
63. Oi! ChrisD get in line.
54,63 - As a convinced abolitionist, I would say that hanging is far too merciful for these treacherous nonentities.
re 58, Peter many thanks, good post, 64, Tyson thanks for your kind words.
Re 63, ChrisD, I intend on organising the queue, one whip for the queue and one for me
That’s it! Enough. 17 years of infighting and these idiots still haven’t realised that the voters won’t tolerate it. I’m 33 - the Conservative Party have been fighting themselves my entire adult life! It’s just not on. It’s not what I’ve been voting Conservative for all these years.
Much as I admire David Cameron (I agree with him on almost everything), there’s now nothing that could ever persuade me to vote Conservative at the next GE. Sadly, I now feel it’d be totally irresponsible of me to do so. This bunch of useless ferrets are totally unfit for office.
I’ll have to look elsewhere.
Some weeks ago, I pointed out that the mental state of political activists, is akin to a sort of psychosis, the inability to perceive reality. Before someone joins a politcal party, you can have a reasonable, rational discussion about politics, once they sign on the dotted line, they open their mouths and out comes nothing but gibberish. The political activist, always produces scenarios in which their politcal party comes out on top, even when all evidence points in the opposite direction. Labour activists were very prone to this from 1980 to 1994, Tories have been subject to this peculiar syndrome, since 1997. A few weeks ago I dare suggest, that Brown would not be the disaster, that Tory posters were convinced he would be, the ‘Blue Harpies’ test, Benedict, Rick w and the rest, would then proceed to tear apart anyone who dare suggest, that all was not well on the ‘Good Ship Cameron’ that it could even be heading for the rocks. Those Tory MPs who are calling for a vote of confidence in Cameron’s leadership, have fired the first shot in the ‘War for the soul of the Tory Party.’ Good luck to you all, may the gods of war smile on you.
Mark Senior is rapidly morphing into a troll!!
62 Ben. There’s another reason.
Not enough in the party want to win bad enough …. I mean real bad !!
62″PtP that is a seriously good point. As a party the Conservatives need to understand the need for unity and agreement on the major issues. We also need to be prepared to accept that not everyone in the party will agree on everything and keep quiet when we disagree - just like Labour did in the early nineties.”
I agree Ben, but I also think that there are many in the party like myself who could see that was the problem years ago but have been powerless to do anything while our MP’s behaved this way with monotonous regularity.
They have been on many occasions been our weakest link and the fact that their numbers have not increased by much in the last 10 years is down to this as much as pre 97′ anger towards the party and this gave Labour one hell of a long unchallenged honeymoon in power.
67 Do you think the better strategy for you would be to reach out to the Sanity faction there must be one in Leigh’s Constituency Party and get them to move against him, he’s stuck his political head out more than a few times to diss your Party. Time to chop it off perhaps
Re 66, John O “As a convinced abolitionist, I would say that hanging is far too merciful for these treacherous nonentities. ;)”
That is why I wanted to whip them to death
Just before the whip is removed.
71 Jack I’m afraid too many are fearful of winning - one councillor asked me what a Conservative Government would mean for his chances of retaining his seat. I told him if that was what he cared about I’d be pleased to see him lose. I don’t think he understands how much damage Labour are doing to this country.
68 - So if you agree with Cameron on almost everything, where do you propose going? To Brown? To Campbell?
Talking about dissenters, at the end of June, Jeremy Corbyn celebrated his 300 rebellion against the whip…thankfully for him he has not John and Benedict as local party members or he would have not survived 10 years without some blood going around
77 - Oh, he’s next on our list. Oh yes!
71.”Not enough in the party want to win bad enough …. I mean real bad !!”
I disagree JackW, in fact the fact that Cameron had such a resounding win finally showed me that we have that hunger again. I would not bank on a few within the Parliamentary having the backing that they think on this. In fact I think that Cameron will have an army behind him if they try to force a high noon moment with the leadership.
I think that unlike a few who seem to be living in a bubble way above the rest of the membership and the electorate, Cameron and his team are in touch outside Westminster and the homeshires.
Keep Mr Cameron. Please.
75 Ben. Indeed. There is a certain comfort in opposition and it appears that too many in the Conservative party are resigned and happy to be the “natural party of opposition”, perhaps in the hope and expectation that buggins turn will be enough eventually for the fruits of government to fall into their hands. Oh dear.
79 I wish it were so Chris. However I have met a number of “natural Conservatives” who have attacked DC from both sides in the last couple of weeks. It is becoming fashionable. I think it is the lack of policy, and once the commissions start to report, that will solve itself.
Those who are the past need to recognise that. Those that are Mail readers need to remember that Paul Dacre loves Brown.
80. Keep Sir Ming. Please, please, please.
I return from my summer hols today to the realisation that the Conservative Party isn’t “the stupid party” after all.
It’s “the f**ing stupid party”…
I am beginning to think that Cameron, whose leadership of the Party I advocated long before he did, is beginning to lose the plot. He got Ealing Southall wrong by talking up a battle he could never hope to win and by imposing some supposedly media-friendly candidate who wasn’t even a member of the party. He’s going to end up with Boris as the Tory candidate for London mayor when he could have put his foot down and said no (another nail in the coffin for Tory credibility), and he’s still failing to announce any real policies after 18 months in office, and seemingly endless policy reviews and commissions, despite Gordon being able to relaunch the Labour Party by axing Blair’s policies and putting new ones in place in a matter of days and weeks. Tell us what you stand for David!
And then we now get Tory loons talking up a challenge in the pro-Labour press (ie, Sunday Telegraph - well, it clearly doesn’t want a Tory government, does it?).
Frankly, I can see myself losing all interest in politics, as there isn’t a mainstream party that seems remotely interested in people who think like me. I see why millions are disenfranchised.
Cameron - and his party - could be doomed if he doesn’t get a grip. Instead he’s ****ing off to Africa for a week…
80 Tabman. How were the cornflakes ??
79 ChrisD. You optimist …. btw did you receive my e-mails ??
80 Hi Tabman! Why are you so pleased with DC? Is it because the Lib Dems have done so well since he took over? A consistent 6% reduction in their vote share? Two poor Local Elections? Or is it because you’ve finally joined our party!
81. Jack. I know of at least one Conservative led council where there are those who would prefer to be in opposition. It is safer - you’re actually responsible for something if you are in control! In opposition everyone agrees with you - the Government is always to blame…
85 - settled down nicely with a family of rice cripies thanks!
60 Thanks Mike. It’s a fair offer but I still think the true odds are close to 7/1, so I’ll stick with it. Anyway, I have it covered!
84. BobSykes. Hmmm. Here goes.
1. Ealing Southall, we made mistakes. The biggest one was talking it up so much.
2. Boris will be a fantastic Mayor, and is the only person who can take on Red Ken on the day of the General Election…
3. Gordon has had 10 years to relaunch the 1997 Manifesto, which is all that he has done. These aren’t NEW policies.
4. The Sunday Telegraph isn’t pro Labour, it’s pro UKIP. Which is worse!
81 - I’ve been reflecting on the “what would a Tory government do” scenario over recent days. I do think the worst thing that could happen to the Tories in terms of “cleansing the brand” would be to have 4 or 5 years in office…
For the first time since December 2005, I am now starting to think this is becoming a hypothetical question anyway now.
Stange times…
Now is the time for Cameron to show his mettle and evict the lunatic fringe from his party - Edward Leigh, the Wintertons, Billy Cash, and any other loons.
He needs to start taking the steps that Kinnock took against Militant. Get busy deselecting the lunatics… the Tories have wasted so many years. Foot = Hague, IDS, Howard; Kinnock = Cameron (OK, different style I know, but basically same job to do). Labour made more progress in 1979 - 1985 than the Tories have from 1997 - 2007.
If Cameron roots out the extremists and faces down bloody battles at party conferences, then there is a chance in the next election but one for the Tories. Trouble is, my guess is that Labour will bring in electoral reform after the next election just as the Tories do get their act together.
91 - Edward Leigh is the Tory equivalent now of Eric Heffer in 1980s Labour.
What is Liam Fox doing in the cabinet; Cameron must face these people down!
90 - Pro bono publico, no bloody panico. Time for some steady nerves during a period of turbulence.
91. “Now is the time for Cameron to show his mettle and evict the lunatic fringe from his party - Edward Leigh, the Wintertons, Billy Cash, and any other loons.
He needs to start taking the steps that Kinnock took against Militant. Get busy deselecting the lunatics”
I don’t think Wintertons, Cash and co can be compared to Militants…their role is more like Campaign Groupers (dissenters on the right end of the party) and Labour more or less did allow them to go on (they tried not to get new ones selected, but the existing ones usually went on until retirements)
93 John O. Are you swigging olive oil and chianti ??
91 - SBS that is not the way forward. First of all the people you list are not lunatics, they are traditional Conservatives. There is no equivalent in the modern Conservative party of Labour’s Militant Tendency!
What he needs to do is hold his nerve and start coming out with some substance rather than just fluff. If I was going to sack anyone it would be the coterie of people like Hilton and Bridges (oh he sacked himself!).
The new intake of MPs are by and large sensible forward looking people but we musnt make the mistake of ditching everything we believe in or we are lost! IMHO of course
If we are looking for the election after next there might not be a country to take over, and the battles will be with Death rather than with Cameron as far as Tombstone are concerned…
we could feasibly be 8 years away from that time…
Cameron will be able to slay the dragon at Conference in October when he can start bringing out some decent policies. I still maintain that an early election will be in Spring 2008 and not before.
Andrea, given your extensive knowledge of selections, have Labour got a full slate yet or will they need that long to complete?
Dave should call their bluff and call a leadership election! Hague and Davis wouldn’t stand against them, Fox would love to but knows he’d lose badly. He’d face a Redwoodesque outsider or no-one, it would do the Tories good to know he’s the best they’ve got so they should stick with him even if they lose the next election, rather than panic like they always seem to do. Having said that, they should have picked Rifkind in 2005!
Edward Leigh et al may be sensible in your opinion Rik, but they do none of us any favours by opening their bloody gobs. Put up or shut up. I’d birch the lot of them.
85.JackW, not had a chance to read them but I will by tomorrow. Just got back from holiday and today was the first chance I got to assault my email box but did not get far. Fitaloon and the brood were at the open and the boys had a fantastic time with David Howell making their day. Another golf day tomorrow with my oldest in our local mens competition and one of the younger ones ball watching.
95 - Yes, but don’t tell Popeye…he’s very jealous
97. “Andrea, given your extensive knowledge of selections, have Labour got a full slate yet or will they need that long to complete? ”
Ben, Labour should have selected in around 55 constituencies so far with more CLPs having already started their selection process.
I read somewhere that the party told CLPs to finish trigger ballots for sitting MPs by the end of the month (I think the majority of CLPs already done it)
99.Well said Ben!
It isn’t a question of centre or right. Cameron has failed to make a sustained impact. Seeing as he has no policies that the public know of and the much hated Blair has gone at last, it is amazing the Tories are still doing so well.
The Tories get what they deserve for failing to oppose or put forward any clear alternative vision. Cameron’s goodbye speech to Blair showed even he was a fan of the previous PM and his questions to Brown in PMQT are like a school bully’s at best.
Presumably Tories love opposition. About time they brought in yet another new leader.
100/101 ChrisD/John O. Ok guys and gals …..
Time for bed. G’Nite all.
ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
96 - First of all the people you list are not lunatics, they are traditional Conservatives.
Probably not the sentiment either IDS or Howard held about Ann Winterton when they both disciplined her over racist remarks.
104 Mike do you agree that it is sensible to take time in opposition to reflect on the issues facing the country then to craft policies designed to tackle that? The trouble with this is that it doesn’t sell newspapers or provide enough news for the 24 hour news world we live in. Therefore they make stuff up or encourage splits. I doubt there is that much about DC that Edward Leigh and his merry band of dimwits actually disagree with! They just want to present it differently or use different language. It is the dreaded media who are constantly looking for a story who are behind much of the discontent. It is like a never ending circle. The dissidents are fed negative press by the media and become more dissident, which is then fed back in to the top!
102 Thanks Andrea. I knew you’d know the answer!
Does this mean that they will or won’t be in a position to go to the country in October?
99/103 - I didnt say they were sensible. I said they cannot be compared to Militant and should not be expelled etc! We could do without witch hunts right now!
102.
Labour has 21 MPs retiring at next GE (including Clare Short’s Ladywood as a Lab seat)…in those cases…in 3 cases no new selections will take place as their seats will be used to fill sitting MPs wishing to stand (boundary changes abolish a seat in the area)….in the remaining 18 seats, Labour has selected in 5 (Brighton Kemptwon, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol North West, Nuneaton and Swansea West). The selection process has officially started in Leeds West, Easington, Bolton South East, Glasgow Central and Washingston and Sunderland West.
Selby and Ainsty, Burton, Medway, Calder Valley, Nottingham South, Walthamstow, Streetham and Birmingham Ladywood still have to officially start the selection process (if they’ve set the official timetable and I’ve missed it, please forgive me).
Re 109, RikW, “We could do without witch hunts right now!”
We could do with them to find the sh1ts who have gone to the Sunday Telegraph.
Walthamstow is an all woman shortlist though, isn’t it…
Rik W - they may not be the Militant Tendency but they are acting as a party within the Party, seeing themselves as some sort of torchbearers for “traditional” conservatism. Their activities are becoming less a pressure group and more of an internal opposition. We don’t need an opposition in the Party, we’ve had enough of that. The grammar school debacle was a debacle because suddenly they realised that Cameron wasn’t all PR, putting a pretty face on the same policies but he was intent on changing the party.
In 2005 the Labour Government should have lost - it gained the support of just over a third of the electorate. It held on because the Tories hadn’t accepted, and many still don’t accept, that spouting the same manifesto in 1997, 2001, 2005 with a different frontman wasn’t going to work. The electorate voted for change in 1997, the Tory party didn’t catch on to that fact until after its third defeat and some of the party still thinks that somehow the electorate will come to its senses and choose a return to 1992 (in the case of the Leighs and Wintertons probably decades earlier).
They are reacting exactly as Brown wants - they should be pilloried by their fellow MPs and if they want to cross the floor or lose the whip then lets face up to that and do that now.
108. Ben, I think that if a GE is called, the NEC will become in charge of selections, drawing shortlists in a quick range of time, so making all selections faster.
Cameron gives Labot an easy ride.
Actually, does he do anything?
Conservatives need a new leader. Replacing Cameron without an obvious candidate is risky.
Cameron must change.
112. “Walthamstow is an all woman shortlist though”
yes, the NEC agreed for an AWS at their last meeting. However I haven’t seen the full officially timetable published yet. However since they’ve agreed on the AWS, I think they will start soon.
2 names I saw mentioned so far are Stella Creasy and Laura Bruni
If GB decided he wanted to call a GE in October the number of seats with PPCs in place would be unlikely to influence his thinking. It would not be that difficult a task to select at short notice and both the tories and libs would be in a similar position.
113 - there is no point in power for power’s sake. You have to believe in something and stand up for it, even IF it is temporarily unpopular!
113 Here here.
114 Thanks Andrea
ALL - I’ve had enough for tonight. Sleep will be welcome!
if labour do win the next election - is it possible to say “it was the cameleon that won it”
Afterall everyone has typcast this as a battle between the boring dour but firm and serious Brown and the chrasmatic and endering but leightweight and filmsy qualities of cameron.
I really think that the much derided cameleon advert could have won the election at that point.
71 “Not enough in the party want to win bad enough …. I mean real bad !! ”
Does that mean they have principals? Or are theytactually doing quite well under Labor?
Serious question.
Re 118, RikW “there is no point in power for power’s sake. You have to believe in something and stand up for it, even IF it is temporarily unpopular!”
Like what? We currently stand for reduced immigration, discipline in schools, marriage, lower taxes over the course of a parliament, strong law and order (whilst trying to solve some of the problems that cause crime, see that namby pamby softy lefty IDS for that).
What do these pr1cks want exactly?
Ben, Labour seats currently selecting (selection timetable set…some are already at the hustings stage, others still at the applicantions phase):
Seat: Bolton South East
Seat: Oxford West and Abingdon
Seat: Suffolk Coastal
Seat: Bury St Edmunds
Seat: Filton & Bradley Stoke
Seat: Congleton
Seat: Basildon & Billericay
Seat: Hitchin and Harpenden
Seat: Maidstone and the Weald
Seat: North West Cambridgeshire
Seat: Macclesfield
Seat: Washington and Sunderland West
Seat: North East Herts
Seat: Maidenhead
Seat: Spelthorne
Seat: Leeds West
Seat: Guildford
Seat: Hertford & Stortford
Seat: South West Bedfordshire
Seat: Mid Bedfordshire
Seat: Bath
Seat: Rugby
Seat: Central Devon
Seat: Aldershot
Seat: Easington
Seat: Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Seat: Glasgow Central
Seat: Hertford & Stortford
Seat: Altrincham & Sale West
Seat: Sutton Coldfield
Seat: Folkestone & Hythe
Seat: South West Norfolk
Seat: North Norfolk
Seat: Hazel Grove
Seat: Rayleigh & Wickford
Seat: Gosport
Seat: Beaconsfield
Seat: Romsey & Southampton North
Seat: Surrey Heath
Seat: Shipley
Seat: Liverpool West Derby
Seat: Sheffield Hallam
Seat: South West Bedfordshire
Seat: South Staffordshire
Seat: Mid Sussex
Seat: Westmoreland & Lonsdale
Seat: Horsham
Seat: Bexhill & Battle
Seat: Chesham and Amersham
Seat: New Forest East
Seat: York Outer
Seat: Huntingdon
Seat: Bracknell
Seat: Chesterfield
Seat: Maldon
Seat: Brentwood
Seat: St Austell & Newquay
Seat: Epsom & Ewell
Seat: Epping Forest
Seat: South Leicestershire
Seat: South West Hertfordshire
Seat: Derbyshire Dales
Seat: Windsor
Seat: North Herefordshire
Labour is up in the polls - but 2 byelections show a massive drop in support.
Can we imply anything from this - or are safe seat byelections irrelevent?
Oh dear, but the Cameron to be the first leader to go market looks value at the moment.
I think al this demonstrates is that the Tories are essentially still in the post 1993 ‘box’ - a bit of smooth talking Blairite spin gets them to 36% or so, but the shine wears off that as quickly as the next day’s headlines.
The problem for Cameron - which his cheerleaders on this site made clear was that the Ealing Southall campaign was the blueprint ‘Cameron campaign’ and it was no more successful than the Hague or Howard predecessors (I’ll give you IDS and Brent East).
The Tories problem really isn’t that difficult to deal with. If you look across the Atlantic (or the Channel) there are plenty of recognisably conservative parties espousing conservative values that are popular and winning elections.
The Tories problem is one of nerve. They believe they are the natural party of government and can’t understand why they are not in power and therefore demand a quick fix to ‘return them to their rightful place’. So they give a new leader a year or so and when they have failed to turn the party’s fortune around in that time they go for the next ‘quick fix’.
Given this context you can see why there is no mood for a change in leadership of the Lib Dems - where Ming and his team are looking rather more strategically than Cameron ever did. And you can see why the tories remain the internecine shambles they are.
A desire to win is not sufficient.
Amazing that after 10 years of a useless Labour government the Tories are still contriving to c*ck things up. Yes, Cameron is lame but calling for his head after a couple of poor results is pure madness unless there is some outstanding candidate ready, willing and able to take his place. There is no one and he at least is telegenic unlike pretty much anyone else in the party. I do feel thought that he has blown a magnificent chance - he had 18 months of great press and party unity and with a few poor decisions and overemphasis on PR stunts has given himself the image of an incompetent lightweight. Once these things stick to a politician they are very difficult to dislodge.
122 - I dont think we do! Half of those policies have been shelved!
125 - oh and up pops the Dan Falchikov troll!!!
“I think al this demonstrates is that the Tories are essentially still in the post 1993 ‘box’”
- so Dan are the Lib Dems still in their ‘post 1918 box’ ?
“Ming and his team are looking rather more strategically than Cameron”
- dont make me laugh!
“you can see why the tories remain the internecine shambles they are”
- but of course there are no rumblings about Ming are there? and the Conservatives are at more than twice the poll rating than the LDs in case you had forgotten!
“I think al this demonstrates is that the Tories are essentially still in the post 1993 ‘box’ - a bit of smooth talking Blairite spin gets them to 36% or so, but the shine wears off that as quickly as the next day’s headlines.”
Erm, Dan - were you living in a cave for several months? The Tories were well above 36% in most polls for long periods of time, until Brown came in - though the grammar schools started things changing earlier.
“The Tories problem is one of nerve.”
In part - there’s too much refusal to stick things out. But it stems from denial that the party needs to change. If they realised that, they’d see they need to sort themselves out. However, it’s easier to blame the leader than criticise yourself.
Striking to compare Harry Hayfield’s projection with the Cantor Spreadfair seats predictions (which are still showing 60 Tory gains) and the increasing probability of an election by spring with the Brown Weeks market, which is showing the midpoint about the end of 2008. Of the two, I’d think that you’re safer betting against Tory seats than on a short Parliament, since the latter could get you seriously burned if it’s a 5-year Parliament, whereas few the Tories are poised to get more than 60 gains.
I’m no fan of Ann Winterton, as those off long memories will know, but the objective of having all MPs on-message is not achievable, and it’s startling to see some of the positively Stalinist posts above - if we adopted that approach to dissent in the Labour Party, we’d be awfully short of MPs.
Cameron’s problem is not that a few right-wingers oppose him. His problem is that he sees politics as a marketing challenge. He’s neither a left-winger nor a right-winger: he simply adapts tactically as appropriate. The electorate are happy to have pleasanter tones, but they detect the fact that he is completely agnostic about what the Conservatives would do in Government. ‘Let’s wait for the policy commissions and see what they suggest’ seemed pleasantly democratic, but it’s simply odd for the leader to have apparently detached himself from policy-making, and to be awaiting the outcome with mild and unhurried curiosity.
By contrast, Brown suits the public mood at the moment. That net positive rating in the Observer poll is something of a rarity in British politics - on the whole, people are net-negative about all politicians except anyone they know personally.
NEW POLL:
An Ipsos MORI poll for today’s Observer puts Labour on 41 per cent, a six-point lead over the Tories on 35 per cent. This is the first time Labour’s support has risen above 40 per cent since November 2005. The Liberal Democrats remain unchanged on 15 per cent.
129 - Nick P talks more sense than most as usual!
131 Fascinating. You believe this is well intentioned advice from a Labour MP. How many CCPs will value a man who buys that
129 “I’m no fan of Ann Winterton, as those off long memories will know, but the objective of having all MPs on-message is not achievable” Wonderful and you say that in full and not self exculpated denial concerning her remarks about Chinese cockle pickers in Morecambe Bay which were also presumably off message then
Nick, you’re right that you can’t have everyone on message, but you have to admit Labour has been better able to control/manage members as a whole. Many Tories still lack the hunger Labour had to get back into office - they were unhappy with 8% leads in the polls, insisting it be double that.
There was always the image that Labour was more united - even the Iraq war wasn’t enough to cause a serious split. In contrast the Tories are often seen as knife-wielding traitors. You’d have to admit to that either being spin and media-bias, or having an element of truth about it.
132 - dont be so silly! I happen to believe that Nick is a decent human being, which is more than can be said for some posters here!
127 - someone’s had too much coffee.
I’ve never liked your tone and your banal posts have always annoyed me, Rik. Finding out you’re on the headbanging right of the Tory party (and that you think that MPs who make racist jokes about tragic events aren’t lunatics) convinces me further that you’re a waste of space.
People - this is just the poll bounce for Brown. It was bound to happen.
If Cameron’s leadership is challenged in any way, the public will be mytified - he’s the first decent leader they’ve had in years.
135 - Stonch the feeling is oh so mutual!
But to suggest I am “on the headbanging right of the Tory party” demonstrates how little you know about me or anything else. I was a signed up Cameroon before many people I know. I just happen to be somewhat disillusioned.
Wow! Tories wield the knives at the drop of a hat, don’t they?
I think the problem with the Tories is that ever since they did away with their “magic circle” method of choosing their leader in the late 60’s/early 70’s, they’ve gone for one outsider-cum-wild-gamble after another. They always seem to pick some complete unknown that no-one has heard off (mainly because they are too new for any faction to have developed hatred for them yet) and they then dump them equally suddenly. I don’t think anyone expected Mrs T, John Major, William Hague, IDS, Michael Howard or David Cameron to be leader. And of all these, only the gamble on Mrs T worked. Most of the time ignoring the front-runner/obvious choice hasn’t panned out.
In practice it’s hard to tell whether someone will be a good leader after a single speech at party conference or a couple of months campaigning. It’s best to put people through several years apprenticeship before you decide (not least because the press can be counted on for a creating a trial by fire after year two).
Labour does things differently - Blair went through quite a lengthy apprenticeship under Kinnock and Smith (and was the front-runner) and of course Brown got the job because he’d withstood over a decade’s worth of trial by fire and was still standing at the end (and he was the front-runner too).
‘Cameron’s problem is not that a few right-wingers oppose him. His problem is that he sees politics as a marketing challenge. He’s neither a left-winger nor a right-winger: he simply adapts tactically as appropriate. The electorate are happy to have pleasanter tones, but they detect the fact that he is completely agnostic about what the Conservatives would do in Government. ‘Let’s wait for the policy commissions and see what they suggest’ seemed pleasantly democratic, but it’s simply odd for the leader to have apparently detached himself from policy-making, and to be awaiting the outcome with mild and unhurried curiosity.’
Nick P puts it far more eloquently than I could - but this is Cameron’s essential weakness (along with his bad temper). If anyone saw his lamentable performance on Friday and compared it with the ‘master Blair’ one could only conclude that Cameron can only deal with benign circumstances - he’s plenty of previous including a ‘you’ve been framed moment’ on a campaign visit to Kingston with the Tory PPC for Yeovil.
Re 136, RikW, “I just happen to be somewhat disillusioned.”
Why?
139 - Benedict unlike some I dont generally believe in washing the party’s dirty linen in public. It gives far too much comfort to the likes of Dan, Paul Lloyd, Stonch, ColinW et al.
Feel free to email me!
Some real nonsense being spouted on here tonight from those who want the Conservatives to fail, and who seize on the slightest thing because there is so little to seize on in the first place.
Re 140, RikW, what is your email address?
129. 131. Agreed Rik W. Sensibly argued post from Nick P. who accurately describes Cameron. But I disagree with Nick P. that the threat comes from the public in detecting Cameron’s political agnosticism. The public haven’t and won’t properly consider what Cameron is about until properly asked, ie in a GE. The threat currently lies squarely with the right wing in his own party and the predominantly right wing press, who both recognise the fact that he has no strong beliefs, other than achieving power from the broad centre.
I think tactically this is a strength. As I have argued before he is a tabula rasa. An Everyman for an uncertain political age. Idealists will disappprove but by seeking to represent the views of the public, as identified through policy groups etc, I don’t feel he would do great harm if successful. I’m not a supporter but as he is essentially a centrist politician who seeks power by public approval I don’t fear a Cameron government.
His challenge is to ride the current adverse wave. To call a leadership election, as Mike suggests, asking opponents to “Put up or shut up”, would be an overreaction and a panicky response. The political tide will turn again before an election, unless Brown has the courage to call an early election. This must