PBC By-Election Competition: the results
July 21st, 2007-
So how did you do?
Full results for the competition are available here:
In Sedgefield, Ian Catchpole, Tyson, and Stephen Fielding led the way with scores of 2.3, 3.5, and 5.0, while in Southall, Mandroid, Joe Bentley, and Tyson had the best results, with 5.4, 6.8, and 7.4. Finally, on the tie-breaker, Peter Cranie and Stonch both predicted JohnLoony’s vote tally to be 187 against an actual result of 188.
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I’m quite pleased with my 61st place - because I was almost spot on for the Conservative percentages in both by-elections.
That’s progress…
Wish my tips on the Open were as good, losing cash hand over fist at present.
Congratulations Tyson
If I had successfully entered the competition, I would have ended up in a mediocre 52th place
Not bad, didn’t realise I was that high up, the others figure in Sedgefield was a surprise and mucked my figures up.
Congratulations to Tyson (if only sven could put us in teh same position by the end of thw season!)
Glad I didn’t enter - I think I’d have got the right idea with Sedgefield, but would have been a long way out on Ealing.
BTW O/T But Glyn Davies is the new Conservative PPC in Montgomeryshire. Unsurprisingly the local Tories didn’t look a gift horse in the mouth and selected him by a landslide. I stand by what I say on this one, anyobody who think Lembit will have an easy ride doesn’t know how popular Glyn Davies is in Wales. Whatever happens now this is going to be fun!
As far as Tories goes Glyn Davies is one of the better ones. Speaks his mind and his more of a common sense/man of the people politicians we need more of. I fancy him to run Lembit reasonably close next time around.
6 Punter , there is a CC byelection in Montgomery next week , a LibDem seat Welshpool Gungrog ward . 2004 Result LibDem 450 Con 182 . There are I believe 4 candidates , LibDem/Con and 2 Independents . The Conservative candidate was formerly chief executive of the old Montgomery Council and one of the independents is the former Conservative MP for Montgomery in the early 80’s . As I have said before Glyn Davies is so popular he has lost here before .
My entry for comp was finally returned as undeliverable - no idea why , would have been around 20th - not that brilliant .
8 - Did it pass you by that Glyn Davies was the candidate in something known as the 1997 Labour landslide? No matter how popular he was, the anti-Conservative wave would have swept him away. With no where near that vitriol at the next GE, it could be much more interesting, despite the Liberal’s 20+ year hold on the seat.
9 - I know , I know , Conservatives set to win Montgomery , just as they were poised to break through onto Manchester Council in Brooklands in 2006 and City Centre in 2007 , and just as they were going to win or comea close 2nd in Southall . Spare the hype until you get results that back it up .
8 Mark Senior to be clear I’m not saying Lembit will get beat. He does start with a 7,000 majority in a seat that has gone Blue once in a Century after all! But I reiterate Glyn Davies is very popular and has a good personal following there. From that is reasonable to extrapolate he can make a good impact on Lembit’s majority. Lembit is going to have to work a bit that’s all. Also I’m afraid 9 is correct it’s a tired old canard to use the 97 Election as a guide to Glyn Davies. In case you hadn’t noticed the tories were a teeny bit unpopular at that point. The good Lord himself could have been the Tory candidate in Montgomeryshire in 1997 and would still have been on the end of a thumping
THE CASE FOR CO-OPERATION
I’ve been reading some surprising posts over the last day or so.
Some seem to expect the Conservatives to win safe Labour seats. Why not then expect Labour to win in a safe Conservative seat like Richmond in North Yorkshire? Yes, thats absurd! Perhaps thats why they call this the summer ’silly season’!
All that matters is winning a majority in the Commons. In that respect neither the Lib Dems or Conservatives are separately making the big break-through, for a majority in the Commons. There is an evens chance of a hung Parliament or even a Labour majority.
Perhaps the most serious lesson for Lib Dems and Conservatives, is that if both do not learn to put aside their differences and co-operate, they will experience another 5 years of opposition.
I sense a burning desire to govern in the Lib Dems, and an equal desire in the Conservatives under Cameron. The time has come for both to look for areas of agreement and work together for the common good. There needs to be a serious look at Lib Dem-Conservative co-operation.
One lesson of such co-operation is that Labour would have lost Ealing Southall if both parties had co-operated. A highly split vote allowed Labour through the middle. The Lib Dems and Conservatives together have a 3,000 vote majority in Ealing Southall! Labour is yet again the party of the few, and not the many.
12 - I agree that there are areas where Tories and LDs can co-operate. It’s good that the Tories eventually came round to the LD way of thinking on ID cards. There are other civil liberty issues where co-operation would be appreciated, but is unlikely as long as the Tories have a vocal hang’em flog’em deport’em contingent.
In a by-election with 5 Cameron visits, the Tories should have been expected to do a bit better in ES. In the period 1974-9 they gave Labour a kicking in a few by-elections… a portent of the victory in 1979.
It may well be true that if the Tories had stood aside in Ealing, the LDs might have beaten Labour. It is sheer fantasy to think the converse - that the LDs standing down would have allowed the Tories to beat Labour.
9 - Crikey o’reilly, I did say “could” be more interesting. I notice you didn’t respond to my point that 1997 was a very exceptional election
Tyson won? Will the smug git email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail daht com?
Bah humbug!
Shortlist for London Con Mayoral candidate:
Andrew Boff, Victoria Borwick, Boris Johnson and Warwick Lightfoot
BTW, Well done Tyson Grr….
I came 27th though I did get within 0.2% of the Labour result in Sedgefield.
SBS re-paste from previous thread in response: 30 You maybe right wrt to the Tories. Let the Lib Dem By-election machine get on with its work. Sure some lost deposits maybe embarrasing, but as the Govt all the Focus will be on Labour and the commensurate damage inflicted on them by Lib Dem gains would be worth far more to the Conservatives as it was to Labour in those cases you mention perhaps.
BTW Staffordshire Moorlands an ultra marginal at the best of times IIRC. That means Dave in 1997 must have had a massive swing against him. How did he compare to others
by Punter
12 - Will L, that’s a nobel thought, but the Conservatives have repeated over and over again their will to govern alone. That’s also why they insist retaining the FPTP, because without it it would be very unlikely to get one-party majorities.
But if the Conservative really would be willing to give up the FPTP and support the PR, I can see there would be a possibility for co-operation. After all, liberals and conservatives for coalitions in many European countries which have PR. I can imagine, that if Conservatives would engage themselves to PR, there could be a possibility that the Lib Dems and Conservatives could come to an agreement on having joint candidates in each constitution (of course the share of the candidates should be fair on both parties) and forming a coalition after the elections, if they won the majority in the parliament together. But I doubt, that the Conservatives could adopt PR, even if they would never be in the government again.
On the other hand, I could see a similar agreement between Lib Dems and Labour at some point…
15 Why do you have “MP” in your email address. Has there been a secret BY-Election we don’t know about………….
Re 20, Punter, my initials, I was born an “MP” (Mark Philip) so need not bother with elections
You know the term “Cricket widow” - a woman who is virtually alone as the other half plays / watches cricket all the time…
Well, are there any Harry Potter widowers out there today? My better half has promised not to start reading it today - but I know she will. I will be unable to have a meaningful conversation with her until 600 pages later.
Punter I think DC was the candidate for Stafford, not Staffordshire Moorlands. Weren’t the the elections on new boundaries? I think he did no worse than average compared to the notional majority and much better than many. He just got swept away by the Labour tide.
Labour 7 points ahead in Sunday Times/YouGov poll. PA report below:
Labour’s “Brown bounce” in the opinion polls continued today with the party enjoying a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in a survey for tomorrow’s Sunday Times.
The YouGov poll echoes the seven-point margin in another survey last weekend, and shows Labour maintaining a comfortable advantage over the Tories for the first time since David Cameron became leader in December 2005.
Almost 1,700 people were questioned on Thursday and Friday, as voters in Sedgefield and Ealing Southall delivered a by-election rebuff to the Tories, who limped in third in both contests.
The survey put Labour on 40% - up five points on a similar poll a month ago - the Conservatives on 33% (down four) and Liberal Democrats on 15% (up one).
The dramatic turnaround from the previous Sunday Times/YouGov poll, taken before Mr Brown succeeded Tony Blair as Prime Minister, is an indication of the scale of the boost to Labour from the change of leader.
Asked what they thought of Mr Brown’s performance so far, 22% said he had exceeded their expectations and only 6% thought he had done worse.
The poll will inevitably fuel speculation about a possible early general election. And it indicated that this would be a popular move among voters.
More than half of those questioned (54%) thought Mr Brown should call an election within the next few months to secure his own mandate to govern, while fewer than a third (32%) said he should not.
Mr Brown led Mr Cameron in voters’ assessment of a range of personal attributes, outscoring the Tory leader by 44% to 12% for “sticking to what he believes in”, and by 35% to 8% for being strong. Mr Cameron’s only significant advantage was on being more charismatic.
Labour has also opened up a six-point lead when respondents were asked which party would be best for their family’s standard of living.
Only 13% of those asked thought Home Secretary Jacqui Smith’s admission of youthful cannabis use made her unsuitable to be in charge of drugs policy, while 26% thought her experiences made her more knowledgeable about the subject and 54% said it made no difference.
:: YouGov questioned 1,664 adults online on July 19 and 20.
Anyone still ruling out October for the GE?
24.
Same poll shows 55% support for Lib Dem-Conservatives. I rest my case.
27 LOL!
22.SBS the book is sitting unread at the moment because fitaloon has taken the brood off to watch the Open today. Everyone else in the house plays copious amounts of golf over the summer, I keep threatening to take it up to see if I can finally unlock the mystery of why they want to spend hours hitting and chasing a ball round a course.
Have been busy with the Cricket Lunch - good lunch - no cricket. So only just bought my Harry Potter - Can give AC on Blair Years a rest!! Paid £11.99 in Borders - was £4.99 in Morrisons but only with the Childrens cover (!) and they had sold out!
Is Cameron still there?
25 Can anything in life be ruled out no. But I still say the odds are against it. This is GB’s life’s work. I think he may go next Spring if he has established a long lasting lead, because a) He will want to be sure that the polls are not a Chimera a la 1970 and b) He will want a few scalps under his belt to run on something of his own new record than Blair’s
26 - You may mean 48%.
At the moment I’d rather have this Labour cabinet, than a Tory-LD one with Liam Fox and George Osborne in.
Will L; if you think that all the LD voters will support an attempt now to cobble together a coalition to defeat Labour you are certainly wrong. And how many Tories would go off to UKIP - or elsewhere if that was tried? It’s a no go area now, for both parties.
This LD-Tory coalition to be set up now is a total delusion.
Interesting as it shows the bounce wasn’t a flash in the pan and is producing a straight Con->Lab switch unless there is some complex churning going on. People questioned on Friday will have been reading more about (no) cash for honours than the by-elections. (I always suspect pollsters who spread over two days of doing 99% on the first day and then calling one bloke on the next day to make it look fresher, but perhaps that’s an unworthy suspicion.)
SBS: I skip Will L’s comments as a rule (33+15=55, eh?), but as you’ve picked this one up - the difficulty about adding up scores (as seanT did Tories+BNP in Sedgfield to prove that it was really a success for the right) is that if parties get together to the point of standing down for each other than they lose lots of disgruntled supporters (this is why all but one party standing down vs the BNP tends not to work). Moreover, local parties are notoriously reluctant to step back in the interest of a national pact.
Am I the only one who thinks that some of these cabinet ministers are making up their experience of drug use?
Sorry, SBS, replying to your 13 before reading your 31!
Bravo Tyson! Not only one of the most entertaining commentators on here but also one of the most astute!
Unfortunately as usual I can’t even open the file which gives the placings.Even as an occasional ‘wooden spoon’ winner I was never able to verify the results for myself. I Know Apple computers look nice but if I’d known they would reduce my chances in PB.Com competitions to zero I would have gone for an ugly PC
29 - was £5 in John Lewis, but got one delivered from Amazon today. Postman was very late; he had apparently had many to deliver today. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went on strike over an issue like this.
You cooked the cricket lunch didn’t you? Fish wasn’t it?
31 - on the subject of delusions, there is nothing wrong with the odd delusion. Once knew a bloke who in all seriousness believe that Dexy’s Midnight Runners were the best band in the history of the world. Charming guy, but utterly deluded. Emigrated to Poland.
Re 28, ChrisD, are you Fitaloon’s other half? Wow I did not know that.
Brown isn’t going to get a chance like this again and this could well be the defining moment of his premiership. Be bold or prevaricate, have faith or be scared? Over to you Gordon…
32. Nick P many posters have said that we will not know the true level of support until after Conference, when Brown will have been in for many months and will have been judged on his ability to do the job, and when Cameron will have been able to reveal some of HIS policies rather than just watching the policy commissions report.
I also follow the PB law that one poll does not make a trend, although two may be the start of a trend.
Given that I am a committed Conservative, I cannot imagine voting for anyone other than my local Conservative MP. However a lot of what Brown has come out with has been cleverly packaged to appeal to the likes of me - a middle class Tory voter. It would work had I not received my Tax bill this morning, reminding me of Brown’s incompetent use of my money for the last 10 years.
Any thoughts on these two points?
Re 35 Roger, “I Know Apple computers look nice but if I’d known they would reduce my chances in PB.Com competitions to zero I would have gone for an ugly PC”
They haven’t, just get Open Office for the Mac. Its free, so you won’t have to forgo and expensive bottle of wine to “buy” it.
I tried it Benedict but found it quite complicated to do. I got to stage 4 and couldn’t go any further. I’d get someone at my company to see if it’s possible to install if it wasn’t that it’d give away the dark secret that I’m interested in politics!! But thanks very much anyway for your help.
Actually Benedict could you give me that link again and I’ll have a final try?
Ben at 39: Well, I think the current picture of a moderate Labour lead is fairly clear, but yes, it’s an early honeymoon period. It might rise or fall or simply stay put till after the conference - and yes, that’s the earliest we’ll have a clearer picture. An October election would preempt that, though, and I’d think that a snapshot today in the light of this morning’s press about DC would show the lead up to 10%.
Your view that Brown is incompetent is not IMO widely-shared - the contest for some time has been between people liking DC more and respecting GB more. Respect tends to trump liking in choosing PMs, especially as people are finding they like GB more than they expected.
Ahem! Who would bet against an autumn election now? That poll was taken before the by-election results and the mainly negative press ‘Cameron’s Conservatives’ ( BTW is that the official name of the Tory party now) have been getting since.
Re 41, Roger, Why don’t you just ask them to install open office because some geeky mate told you free software is cool or spin some such other line?
7% lead for us in you gov is fecking amazing - they usually give us our worst figures - watch out for a 35% lead in populas/mori!!!
re 42, Roger for a mac with OS 103 or 11 see here:
http://porting.openoffice.org/mac/download/index.html
From previous thread
118 Andrea , to put Lib Dem performance into perspective when was the last time the LiB Dems increased vote share in a by election by as little as 4%?.
Rogerh
44 - fair point! I did predict a Brown bounce, and it may now be that Roger’s 10% Labour lead is not far away.
Of course you need to wait till the conference season is gone to see how lasting or important this all is.
I’m sure some of our regular posters will give you some of the examples of Brown’s incompetence (such as the Tax Credits mess I am still getting at surgeries) but I won’t trade insults with a Labour MP - you are after all supposed to defend as much as I am!
I am intrigued that people are now trying to link this with “David Cameron’s Conservatives” being on the ballot paper. In the local elections in May many councils were won with “Cameron’s Conservatives” as the description on the ballot paper. People have short memories when it is useful.
I wonder whether our host is ready to rethink his view that Cameron is in all circumstances a vote winner? I know it’s difficult to ignore our own prejudices and I have to admit to knowing far more Cameron ’sound alikes’ than Brown ones.
Nonetheless it struck me as obvious that after Blair’s recent superficiality the last thing the voters would want would be someone even more superficial. The zeitgeist was bound to move on and like Major’s smile was a delight after Maggies scowl so is Brown’s solidity next to Cameron’s effetery (does such a word exist or have I made it up?
48 - in recent memory Livingston, Blan Gwent certainly. There will be others.
ITS TIME TO BEGIN IT
We forget that under Cameron Lib Dems and Conservatives are already on the same ground. Co-operation is natural and inevitable. Normally the Lib Dem-Conservative block has a stable majority of 50-55%. Recent Yougov poll gives 48%. Far more than Labour at 40% in the recent poll, and 38% on poll of polls average.
The Conservatives and Lib Dems know one thing - they have everything to gain, and almost nothing to lose from co-operation. Doing nothing will result in another 5 years of opposition.
UKIP is a flash-in-the-pan that is already on the wane, experienceing heavy decline as the Europe issue has subsided, as a result of the UK having never entered the Euro. Promised referendums also subdue interest in the issue. UKIP only does well in Euro elections, and is none existent outside them (at both local level and general elections).
The old ‘Alliance’ was a huge success, which actually allowed both member parties together to RAISE support, which was higher then their support when separate. The sum was greater then the parts.
Exactly the same is true of the Lib-Dems and Conservatives. If they co-operate to share governing power as a mature alliance, then I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘New Alliance’ has the support of well over 55% of the electorate in the future. Labour is the party of the few, and not the many. Labour has had 10 years in government, though an unrepresentative minority party. Its time to end it.
51 - I suppose you could exclaim after visiting MacDonalds, “That was an F-eatery”, but otherwise….
re 52. Thanks -rephrasing the question when was the last time the Lib Dems had a byelection share increase of below 4% in a ENGLISH byelection?
Rogerh
Ben at 50. I agree about the short memories (though not the example you gave which was idiocy by Cameron) and there is no better example than Matthew Parris. To-day he lambasted him. If he had thought the candidate was a poor choice why didn’t he mention it before he lost. The same goes for all those other ‘Tory’ journalists who were wise after the event. Poor Cameron with fairweather friends like those
54. JohnO LOL!
47. Thanks Benedict. I’ll try again
56 All the Media are fairweather. You think GB trusts any of the hacks currently lauding him. He know very well, one slip and they’d turn on him in an instant………
re 51. Roger. There might be something in that. But we have to wait for the honeymoon period to end and then see. I agree with Andy Grice in the Indy this morning that of the 3 PMQ clashes so far Cameron has won two and the other has been a score draw. Alas for Cameron the Brown plan of including an announcement has meant that this has got little coverage. Very smart but how long before the media gets irritated?
Brown’s great flaw is that he cannot deal criticism and I think that that is starting to show. He also lacks courage - why did he not go to Ealing Southall? At least Cameron’s got the guts to put his head on the line.
Brown’s career has been characterised by a reluctance ever to put himself in a position where he could be rejected. In the 80s he waited before putting himself forward for a safe seat until he knew that it was a certainty. He then went to great lengths to avoid facing a contest for the leadership. No wonder he sought to write a book on “Courage”.
59 refer you to 18
19 “Will L, that’s a nobel thought”.
Dynamite then?
Will L - there is no way on God’s earth that the Conservative party will go into alliance with the Lib Dems at national level. It would not be acceptable to the membership or the MPs!! NO WAY!
RE 53 Tory/LibDem alliance?Dead in the water.Charlie was right by saying clearly no pacts.Ming has muddied the waters by appearing to favour Lib/Lab working together.
Camapigning for the next election when Lib Dems have a real chance of balance of power should be clear -no deals withm eitherLab or TOry.Vote for Lib dems policies and maximum numberof MP’s to make a real difference.
Rogerh
62. and thats from a member who was in the sdp!!
55 Cheadle , Uxbridge , Beckenham , Eddisbury , Wigan , Kensington/Chelsea , Tottenham , Preston - these are back to 1997
Mike If he goes for a GE in October he only has two PMQ’s left to go! Others have suggested that it won’t be possible to judge how the land lies until after DC’s had his go at the Party conference. Answer don’t give him his go! If I was Labour I would be planning for October and denying furiously that that was my intention to avoid getting boxed in. I’d be gobsmacked if that isn’t excactly what’s happening. Of course everything depends on the polls continuing to look good from now until September. ICM awaits next week. If Labour’s off one and the Tories are up one we’ll no doubt have one of Mike’s threads suggesting the honeymoon’s finished. Of course it will mean no such thing but no doubt we Tories will take what we can get at the moment.
One interesting point is that before the election all the polls showed Labour winning much more comfortably with GB as PM. Then he went through a bad patch when his ratings slumped and now they’re way back up nagain. Any thoughts anyone?
63. Conservative Lib Dem pacts are used against both parties to the detraction of both. I don’t know any Conservative activists who would allow such a thing. Equally I don’t know any Conservative Councillors who would allow them at national level. And finally I don’t know any Conservative agents who would support them - and the agents have the ear of their MPs in most places!
Labour Lib Dem pacts are seen as extremely useful by Conservatives as it helps to reduce the Lib Dem vote all over the area - you can tar both with the same brush.
A hung parliament will make all sorts of interesting coalitions. Maybe Plaid and SNP will keep Labour in Government! Chancellor Salmond sounds rather grand doesn’t it Alex…
55. “rephrasing the question when was the last time the Lib Dems had a byelection share increase of below 4% in a ENGLISH byelection?”
I think it’s Cheadle which was a LD held seat though.
59. “why did he not go to Ealing Southall?”
When was the last time Blair (as PM) campaigned in a byelection? I don’t recall him paying many visits in Blaenau Gwent, Dunfermline and Livingston. I thought it was usual for PMs to avoid those things more than opposition leaders
If anyone is interested, Labour selection in Bolton South East (safe Lab seat barring some kind of election disaster or special circupstances) has got 53 applications. Shortlist at the end of the month and selection on late August
Welcome back Ben Redsell! A long time since your last posting (I think)
CO-OPERATION IS DESIRED
The only remaining issue is PR. And its almost certain that the Conservatives will give ground on this. We now know both centre and right do better under PR than the left. Witness what has happened across Europe over the last decade (e.g France being the best example, a country traditionally thought of as very left-wing has actually been proven to be centre-right. And note it is a real broad-church ‘coalition party’ that keeps winning power in France, and not a single inward looking party).
The Conservatives need to reach out to win power. The vehicle for this is co-operation. If Conservatives add to their seat total through co-operation, there are no valid ground for opposition to co-operation. And it is likely to be non-existent amongst the MP’s. None of them would oppose co-operation in order to win governing power. The will of the people, is more important than then being narrow-minded. Co-operation is desirable, it is inevitable.
Re 59, Mike, Not a fan of Gordon then?
I understand that it has always been the convention that the Prime Minister does not attend or campaign in by elections. Ostensibly because they are too busy running the country.
69. I’ve been too busy to post Andrea. Indeed the fact that I posted on ConHome (I know, I know) at 4am on Friday morning was questioned by my local Political Editor, so I have to be a little careful what I say as well!
59: Mike, I don’t remember a sitting PM ever campaigning in a by-election: it’d be counter-productive as people would ask why he wasn’t dealing with whatever the current issue was instead of pottering round doorsteps.
Ben R at 50: there was a time when putting DC’s name on the ballot paper was a good wheeze, but arguaboly that isn’t currently the case.
44 - ‘Cameron’s Conservatives’ ( BTW is that the official name of the Tory party now)
So here is a departure point for some Saturday night anorakking - parties around the world whose name incorporate’s an individual’s name.
I’ll start things off with the National Movement for Simeon II in Bulgaria…
re 62/53 - Rik is absolutely on the button - sorry Will L - come to the SW and you will find any talk of an LD pact as anathema to any right thinking coinservative (pun un-intended as I am a card acryying ’shire-tory’ cameroon).
As I posted on a previous thread, for me the major result of ES by Grant Shapps et was in stopping the LD by election machine absolutely dead in its tracks.
But PR means that the make up of the parliament or council reflects the will of the people. Conservatives (Capital C) are not interested in what people want, only what Conservatives want.
Slightly off thread but struck me with use of term “fairweather” friends. Its rained almost continuously since Gordon became PM. Is Gordon’s personality better suited to a sodden summer? Does a sunny optimist like Cameron just seem too light when all about is sodden?
After tracking down this morning my 80 year old dad who went off yesterday to visit my brother on the Shropshire/ Welsh border intending to travel on the M5 going through Gloucs/Herefordshire and didn’t arrive - safely spent the night in a village the police had directed him to thank god - I wonder how the Government has got away so far with the obvious deficiencies in flood control and planning? Doubt its just been this government but we have been warned for years now of increasing flood dangers as result of climate change and little effective work seems to have been done. There is talk of staff reductions and budget constraints in recent years. Will Gordon escape the consequences?
75 - Yulia Tymoshenko bloc (in Ukraine)
“Mike, I don’t remember a sitting PM ever campaigning in a by-election” How interesting so that wasn’t TB but a body double in Uxbridge in 1997 then
7.
“I fancy him to run Lembit reasonably close next time around.”
How close? Does that mean he’s a cheeky boy?
I know I didn’t win the comp, but I should have been in the top 10 as far as I can tell - why am I not ranked, grumble, grumble, grumble…. Was only a few points out on Lab on E&S and got the Lib Con split pretty damn close, and was a couple of points out on Lab in Sedgefield! Mr Carpet???
53.
“ITS TIME TO BEGIN IT…
We forget …. ……..Its time to end it.”
Jump and we promise not to catch you Will. With all the press speculation about when politicians stopped taking strange substances it’s clear that it’s not just CallmeDurr whose brain has gone to pot.
78 Doubtless Gordon will escape because he will be able to point to some long forgotten Home Secretary or Environment Secretary - or even DPM Prescott - as the guilty party. We aren’t good enough at pointing out that whatever Brown may have thought of policy for the last ten years, he signed the checks.
Sorry - make that 11th, I missed 1 on my fingers!
Re 82, Paul what name did you enter under?
85 - you have 11 fingers?
Can someone explain why the Metronet affair has had such little coverage in the press, with little attempt by the Opposition to make an issue of it? A flagship Gordon Brown policy, rejected as a disaster waiting to happen by almost all interested parties in the project, and so it has come to pass at the cost of up to £2bn to the taxpayer.
Am i missing something?
Re 85, Paul there is an LD Lloyd at 18
A side issue to the floods, but it is noticeable that at no point has the Govt suggested that they would “bring the army in” (because the emergency services clearly can’t cope). Only one reason for that… we don’t have an army available in this country any more.
re 74 & 80. Indeed - Tony Blair paid a visit to Uxbridge for his first by election as PM less than 8 weeks after taking office
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_by-election,_1997
Re 88, Alex, the press don’t care because tit’s (in the case of teh tabloids0 and by-elections, floods etc sell more papers?
37. Benedict, yes.
Welcome back Ben Redsell, its good to see you posting again.
78. Ted, I agree with you about the flooding situation and if it continues there is going to be a lot of anger about the planning and preparation especially after all the warnings. I noticed that Brown was quick to praise the emergency services and the army for their response but he was not asked or had anything to say on the Telegraph article about armed service shortages of men and equipment.
If the substance of that article is correct then we might be in real trouble if this freak summer weather persists and we have more flooding. This is exactly the type of situation where the armed services might be needed quickly and with the right equipment to hand.
“we don’t have an army available in this country any more.” hmm! that wouldn’t the “Tory issue of the week” by any chance, would it?
94 - is it? I would have thought it would be the LibDem one!
90 - “we don’t have an army available in this country any more” - chimes nicely with Tory press release of the day! - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6910048.stm
sorry for double post - didn’t realise the first one had made it here.
Been at the cricket, hadn’t seen it.
70. “Co-operation is desirable, it is inevitable.”
Resistance is futile!!!! Rik has told you (with three exclamation marks) that this is not on. Your defeatism is reminiscent of the tank brigades retreating from Stalingrad. The loaded revolver awaits you in the nearest Conservative club. You will do the decent thing, no doubt.
DC is trying to do what Blair tried to do - to squash the Lib Dems with a killer cuddle and stand on their ground. It was not Blair’s most succesful move and he eventually stepped over the Lib Dems and took his Party ro a position on their ‘right’. We may well see Cameron trying to take the Tories to the ‘left’ of the Lib Dems if they don’t move out of his way. Whether the Daily mail will be too chuffed is another question.
Benedict - I entered as ‘Paul Lloyd’.
No talk of coalition until after an election. It’s bad enough with the electorate thinking there’s nobody worth voting for as it is, to stand aside would just boost the loonier fringe parties. Equidistance should also be the watchword, it’s not been the case recently and the lack of by election breakthroughs is partly a testament to that.
88. ” Can someone explain why the Metronet affair has had such little coverage in the press, with little attempt by the Opposition to make an issue of it?”
Possibly because Brown’s policy in this matter was essentially a Conservative one, backed by most of the press barons and the city and opposed by Ken Livingstone? It’s just embarrassment all round for most of the establishment.
100 My entry never got there , Paul , no idea why but it was returned as undeliverable .
Re 100, Paul, you don’t appear on the list.
103. Mark, it happened the same thing to me. It was sent back as undeliverable
I was disenfranchised. Couldn’t access the spread sheet. Predicting the winners and second was easy, but would have been blown out by independent in ES and BNP showing in Sedgefield.
102 - couldn’t the same thing have been said about the ERM? (For Con read Lab). A proper opposition should be able to make at least something of it.
It should be pointed out that the Conservatives are still suffering from their abdication of the responsibilities of opposition in the years after 1997 - it is a similar story with PFI, a policy which they tried to claim as their own, when the truth is that Labour adapted it from a cautious policy which found little take-up in the Private sector into one which lined the pockets of companies, with long term consequences that could haunt future generations (after Gordon is long gone).
67. “Labour Lib Dem pacts are seen as extremely useful by Conservatives….. - you can tar both with the same brush.”
as you can where the Conservatives are in bed with Labour, such as in controlling the Merseyside and Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Authorities.
Guido Fawkes site seems to be down?? can someone please check 4 me//
110 - seems like it’s there to me.
ty Alex. it appeared but took forever, must be my poxy broadcband connection.
109. Exactly like Ipswich…. except we increased our share of the vote on Thursday, so maybe it doesn’t work so well…
74. Nick P I’m sure you aren’t trying to argue that Ealing Southall is the sort of seat you’d expect the Conservatives to be winning, whatever nonsense CCHQ is ramping?
93. Thanks Chris and others!
88 and 90, maybe if you want examples of Brown incompetence Nick P you’d like to look no further. Remind me, who’s been in charge of signing the cheques for the last 10 years?
Thank you- Andrea, ukPaul, Roger, Benedict, Dez- for recognizing my achievement- all the more surprising since I didn’t really look at the 2005 results as a baseline. To be honest didn’t even know that that the LD’s were 2nd in 2005 in Southall, and 3rd in Sedgefield. Only knew that they were both pretty safe seats for Labour. I have promoted you all into my favourite group of posters on pbCOM.
Can someone please nobble Sergio Garcia though? Unless the guy trips up I am going to lose alot of cash.
And welcome back Ben Redsell- must be strange coming back to pbCOM seeing me (Tyson) at the top of the punting league. A bit like that the Polish guy who has awoken from a coma after 19 years!!
I saw this reported on ConHome.
TORY MPs ‘CALL FOR NO CONFIDENCE VOTE ON CAMERON’
By Andrew Woodcock, PA Chief Political Correspondent
At least two Conservative MPs – and possibly as many as six – have called for a vote of no confidence in David Cameron’s leadership of the party, it was reported today.
The report, in the Sunday Telegraph, did not name any of the MPs supposedly involved, and aides indicated that it was not being taken seriously by the party leadership.
But its appearance in a paper read by many Conservative activists and sympathisers will add to the pressure on Mr Cameron following a string of poor polls and the party’s third place in this week’s by-elections in Sedgefield and Ealing Southall.
According to the paper, at least two MPs and possibly as many as six have written to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Michael Spicer, requesting a vote of no confidence.
A vote would automatically be triggered if letters were received from 15% of the parliamentary party – currently 29 MPs – as happened when Iain Duncan Smith was ousted as leader in 2003.
While there is no prospect of that threshold being reached, the dispatch of any letters would indicate a level of concern on the Tory backbenches about the direction Mr Cameron is taking the party in.
Discontent with his approach surfaced in the recent row over grammar schools, which saw Altrincham MP Graham Brady quit the frontbench in protest.
And there were criticisms of Mr Cameron’s handling of the Ealing Southall by-election from some Tories, including Westminster MP Mark Field, who publicly criticised the campaign for alienating ethnic minorities in the constituency.
Mr Cameron’s espousal of causes like climate change and social responsibility ahead of traditional Tory concerns like tax cuts and immigration have led to grumbling among right-wingers.
The Sunday Telegraph quoted an unnamed MP as saying he had written a letter: “I felt I had to register my deep-seated dissatisfaction. I am not the only one and I know there are a number of others who are thinking of writing.”
The paper said that Sir Michael Spicer refused to confirm or deny whether he had received any letters, and he made no immediate response to a request for a comment from the Press Association tonight.
There is no requirement on Sir Michael to inform Conservative headquarters or Mr Cameron if he receives a letter, and in the normal course of events it is understood that the party machine would not expect to be told.
A party spokesman tonight declined to comment on the report.
59- Mikey S, mate- try and put you personal dislike of Brown to one side. It not only makes your posting comments look a bit silly- yeh right Brown should have been electioneering, it would appear extremely opportunistic for a new PM (maybe any PM) to be seen fighting a by election.
Also, it is affecting your betting, and tips, and starting to cost you hard cash. Selling a spread on Labour at 290- absolute madness.
The reverse situation- I know you thought Sego was pretty damn gourgeous, but that too blinded you on the French market (as much of your instinctive dislike of Brown is now). I know because I got my fingers burnt on that market following your tips.
110. I hope Guido gets the money and support for his private prosecution.
The more I think about this cash-for-honours no-prosecutions thing, the more it stinks. Does anyone honestly believe Labour behaved correctly? Does anyone with an IQ higher than their weight in kilos really think those “secret loans” were all above board? If so, why didn’t the Labour Treasurer know? Why were the loans “secret”? What was all that about K’s and Big P’s? Just a bit of a laugh? Is it sheer coincidence that so many donors get peerages?
Ugh. Labour brought in legislation to stop sleaze in party donations, then circumvented Their Own Legislation. This isn’t even denied. Yet we are all supposed to chortle and say boys will be boys and that’s politics. Yuk.
Whether it’s Iraq or cash-for-honours, Labour are the O J Simpson of British politics. We all know they did it, they know they did it, the world knows they did it, but no one dares convict them. They are poisonous reptiles, and Peter Mandelson is their living god.
Someone stop them, please. Labour are the headlice of British politics. We need the nit nurse.
New thread - Labour’s lead moves to 7% with YouGov
Thanks for the welcome back PJ/Tyson. See you on the new thread!
AnnaK, are you the same as Anna who was a Tory?
seanT, making me chuckle to myself as ever!
119: No, Ben, I am not that Anna
75
Lijst Pim Fortuyn, Netherlands
List Dedecker, Belgium
And the original name of the Norwegian populist Progress Party was “Anders Lange’ Party”
59. “Brown… also lacks courage - why did he not go to Ealing Southall?”
I’m sorry but this is silly. He didn’t go because a) the local constituency + central office had it under control, and b) he had a country to run!! And it’s not as if Labour lost - we won vindicating that his judgement that it was all under control and didn’t need his presence.
When will people understand that every hour spent on photo-ops is an hour not spent on dealing with red boxes, meeting civil servants, holding cabinet meetings and making policy decisions? There’s a tendency to ask “why isn’t the PM here, why isn’t the PM there” over the most trivial things. But the day remains fixed at 24 hours, and the workload of actual government has increased even compared to ten years ago (because people expect more) and the PM still needs to have time to do such basics as eat, sleep and cuddle the kids. Most of the population understands this and understands the trade-off between doing lots of photo-ops and getting actual work done. And guess what? They prefer the PM to concentrate on actual work.
David Cameron had time to go to Ealing-Southall because he had nothing else to do. Ditto Ming Campbell. Cameron will be in Rwanda next week for the same reason - it fills up the time and makes him look busy. What else has he got to do? People who tend to complain “why isn’t the PM putting this or that photo op above the business of governing” tend to be LibDems or those Tories who have no experience of office and believe that government is like opposition (either because they’ve been out of office for 90 odd years or because they have come into politics during an opposition period and cannot imagine the work that governing involves).
75. Congress Party (I)