Was Cameron’s mistake to have even tried?
July 22nd, 2007
Are their lessons from what Labour did after Black Wednesday?
As we’ve discussed on the previous thread things don’t look too good for the Tory leader, David Cameron, this morning. With two new opinion polls showing Labour in the 40s and reports of Tory MPs wanting a confidence vote this is certainly going to be a period that will test him to the hilt.
Much of the current crisis has been driven by Thursday’s by elections in Sedgefield and Ealing Southall. Cameron’s audacious move on the candidate selection in the latter and the repeated suggestions from the Tory camp that they were in with a shout was a huge gamble that went wrong.
An object lesson on how the main opposition party should handle by elections where they do not have a chance is shown in the results of the Newbury and Christchurch contests from the summer of 1993. These were the first electoral tests for the Major government after Black Wednesday and what happened? The Tory vote collapsed and so did Labour’s. The 2% and and 2.7% shares for a party aspiring to government were absolutely pathetic and far far worse than anything that we have seen this week.
Yet there was no crisis for Labour and hardly anybody even mentioned their miserable totals. For Labour did little more than put up candidates and mount a token campaign.
The Labour leadership largely kept away and there was an implicit understanding that the Lib Dems were best placed to damage to the Tories - which they did big time.
Now given the Conservatives’ totally appalling record in this form of election going back over a quarter of a century was it really wise for the leadership to have suggested that a win was even possible on Thursday?
Why didn’t Cameron & Co bite the bite and not put personal reputations on the line. There could have been informal briefings to suggest that the Lib Dems were much better placed to make progress and the Tories could have stood largely aside. This would have helped the Lib Dems and the Labour machine in Ealing Southall would have found it harder to get its vote out when the Tories were not challenging hard.
A Lib Dem victory in these circumstances would have really hurt Labour and impeded Brown’s honeymoon and that could have had a lasting benefit for the Tories.
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And whenever there was comment on the Tory performance they could have just pointed to how Labour handled Newbury and Christchurch.
My betting. I’ve closed down at a loss my Labour commons seat sell spread bet that I made at the 290 seats level. I’ve paid for this with profits I’ve taken on Obama and Thompson in the US presidency spread market. I am retaining my “weeks to a general election” spread bet that could provide a great return if Gordon goes early.
Mike Smithson
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Details matter. If you are going to try, make sure the chap you are parachuting in (a) won’t upset the locals, (b) is nicely photogenic, and, oh yes, (c) hasn’t given Labour a big pile of cash just a week ago.
Like the grammar school row and, I fear, the Rwanda trip, the byelection was a case of good intentions pathetically implemented.
Cameron needs to find some policies that will give the electorate something to vote for, and his MPs something to campaign for. Without policies, he gets few votes and insurrection (or at least a couple of angry letters). Trouble is, any policy announcements leave him open to a big, clunking fist.
Well this all comes down to what the members and M.ps were willing to accept. By 1993 i think that labour members would have allowed the devil a free run if they thought they could knock out a tory m.p.
In short all Labour cared about was getting the tories out.
All the tories seem to care about (at the very best i might add) is getting themselves in.
In 1993 If you asked a labour member if they would take 10 years in power in a lib lab pack they would probally cry and then bite your hand off for it.
In 2007 if you asked a tory if they wanted 10 years in a con lib pack they would tell you get screwed.
Pride comes before a fall.
P.S can we please have 6 mini browns at the bottom of the thread so as to symbolise labours six point lead with Mori.
It cheers me up no end to see so many of his smiling faces.
Looking at the long term, and everything except internal Tory politics, it’s not clear to me that Cameron’s doing too much wrong here.
Of course he could have done better with the short-term by-election fallout by just not fighting it or by deferring to his local party, but if the main goal is to win a general election, it seems more important to practice running a proper campaign, try new things out and learn from the inevitable mistakes. Judging from the discussions here, and the betting odds, I think it’s fair to say that no-one really knew how useful the things he was trying were - the shiny non-Tory candidate, buying off a local faction, putting his own name on the ballot paper, etc. It has to make more sense to take chances at this time and see how things go than leave the risk-taking to a general election.
Tactically, there has to be some sense in holding off committing to policy until he knows what the situation will be when he actually fights the election; For example, should he take on a nation of nimby’s to get more houses built? Looking at it now, he probably should. But if the housing market tanks in the next 12 months, the picture may look a bit different…
Now, bearing in mind that Brown was going to get his bounce and have the wind behind him for some time anyway, now seems as good a time as any for Cameron to have tried things that might fail.
Obviously this doesn’t take account of internal Tory politics - if his problems are really serious, then avoiding a short term PR blow and keeping the party satisfied could be more important than preparing for a general election. In which case he has just screwed up bigtime.
repost from last thread
“Times says no election til next spring:
“GORDON Brown is preparing for a general election next year in the wake of a strong bounce in the opinion polls and signs of unrest in the Tory party over David Cameron’s leadership.
Following victory in Thursday’s two by-elections, the first electoral test for the new prime minister, it can be revealed that he is unlikely to go to the country this autumn, as has been speculated, because he wants to give enough time to show he can deliver on big issues such as housing and public services.
Plans for an election next spring or early summer are being stepped up a gear. That would allow time for voters to see the benefits of October’s spending review – and for the Labour party to try to raise the £20m needed to fight the campaign.”
Test This story is off the record rubbbish; easily deniable. Don’t believe Labour spin. They don’t want to get boxed in. Remember the rubbish about Lit being in a challenging position two days before polling day. If the polls are good in September the trade Unions will finance an October campaign; after cash for honours there’s no other way for Labour. How will GB ‘deliver’ on housing before next Spring or Summer for that matter? As for other public services like health and education there’s been barrow loads of extra cash which has either ‘delivered’ or not as far as voters are concerned. Waiting till next Spring won’t transform voters’ views here in any way. The key thing is GB’s honeymoon; if he waits there’s every chance it will have faded away by next Spring.
“The key thing is GB’s honeymoon; if he waits there’s every chance it will have faded away by next Spring. ”
More expert advice or pure conjecture?
Re 3. When there are two polls published at the same time I plan to take the bigger lead and use that for the graphic. The exception will be if one poll has Labour ahead and another the Tories.
I have prepared Gordons from 1-10 but have not done any Daves yet. I guess it could be some time before they are needed.
Interesting article.
For a right-leaning Lib Dem like Mike Smithson, it might seem logical for Cameron to have ‘ceded’ the Ealing election to the Lib Dems. To those on the right of the tory party, however, this would have been politically poisonous and, in any case, an unsuccessful strategy - Labour would have won anyway…
It didn’t - and couldn’t - happen because:
First, there simply is not the level of dissatisfaction with the Labour now that there was with the tories in 93 - look at this morning’s polls for goodness sake.
Second, the lib dems’ centre of gravity is too far away from the tory centre of gravity. While in the 90s, Labour and Lib Dem had a lot in common, so tactical voting was a logical option, as proved by the 97 election. We have yet to see anti-Labour tactical voting on such a scale. The Ealing election proved it.
Burbachris. Like everyone else I’m speculating. If you want us to refrain from doing so and simply comment when we have inside information we’d have some pretty short threads. I will just say this; historically all political honeymoons fade over time. This honeymoon is based on convincing people that a man who has been at the very centre of the new labour project for twelve years is offering a real change in direction. GB has pulled it off so far. All I am saying is that, if the polls look good next september, I personally wouldn’t push my luck. That would be his best chance of winning his own mandate IMHO. Of course it’s possible he’ll do equally well next Spring in which case he would have lost nothing by going early. Can he really expect double digit leads before he decides to take the plunge? If that’s his criterion he’ll be waiting until 2010-and in vain. All one can do is apply one’s own judgement to a given set of circumstances in assessing what will happen.
The soul-searching by Tories on this site very late last night was most interesting. Appreciate their honesty! There have been too many Tories here recently thinking the next election was assured for them. It simply isn’t like that.
Even those who do not wash their party’s dirty linen in public - Rik W - were loading the washing machines in public, without actually starting the cycle!
I’d like to say that it’s good to get people like Rik and Nick P contributing to this site. These guys actually earn their living for their work in politics. It allows them to give certain perspectives we would not otherwise have. We just have to accept that they sometimes need to hold back, and raise their concerns within the party privately on some matters, rather than telling pb.com what is concerning them at the moment.
For partisan non-politicans like myself, there is no excuse for ramping and hyping…
The by-elections in Newbury and Christchurch aren’t comparable. Labour started on 6 and 11% respectively. I didn’t detect much evidence that the Cons were trying in Sedgefield yet they still did much better than that. At least a part of the story has to be the LibDems failure to get any traction at all - what happened to the Reg Keays vote that they were going to eat up?
12 - the LD by-elections on 1987-92 all had Labour third. In Eastbourne and Kincardine and Deeside, they were a very clear third, in Ribble Valley it was a close third.
Not sure what happened to the Reg Keays vote. Was it a pissed off Labour vote? Was it a pro-armed forces vote? At least the by-election vote was 3 times the vote share the LDs got in 1997.
Nice theory Mike - and possibly a winner in Sedgefield (although I reckon m Labour would have sleepwalked that one) but in Southall with the Tories in second, and London being at the heart of Cameron’s appeal, the seat was too valuable not to mount a campaign in. Don’t forget you were talking about DC’s bravery yesterday - that he’s prepared to try and fail - so you seem to be advocating the coward’s position this morning!
Cheer up Tories, you’ve had it good for a while and all could be different by conference season. Too early to panic now - Grammar schools aside Cameron’s mistakes that are being pounced on are not election losers. Unity probably counts for more than anything else at the moment. If anyone reads a politics story this morning, it’s about Tory MPs voting for no confidence in DC - not exactly clever whoever leaked it.
anyway, off to run 13 miles. See you later.
Tories now given at 260 on Spreadfair… Labour 45+ ahead.
I’m not convinced that this is a ‘Brown bounce’ but rather a return to the status quo before Blair fell apart, Prescott Carol Caplin Lebanon Cabinet reshuffle Cash for Coronets etc. Brown has brought stability no more.
Cameron was always as likely to alienate voters as attract them. Here is a post from Nick P which I just saw from last night and it perfectly explains why.
“Cameron’s problem is not that a few right-wingers oppose him. His problem is that he sees politics as a marketing challenge. He’s neither a left-winger nor a right-winger: he simply adapts tactically as appropriate. The electorate are happy to have pleasanter tones, but they detect the fact that he is completely agnostic about what the Conservatives would do in Government. ‘Let’s wait for the policy commissions and see what they suggest’ seemed pleasantly democratic, but it’s simply odd for the leader to have apparently detached himself from policy-making, and to be awaiting the outcome with mild and unhurried curiosity”.
re 14. The Tories started in third place in Ealing Southall - not second.
re 15. Jon - I think I’ve been affecting the Spreadfair market overnight. From a Labour seller I’ve become a Labour buyer
14. “but in Southall with the Tories in second”
They started in third, LD were already second in 2005 GE
12. “I didn’t detect much evidence that the Cons were trying in Sedgefield yet they still did much better than that”
According to the Con candidate’s blog they tried to squeeze his vote in Tory voting villages:
“I’ve met voters in every part of the constituency and have concluded that the Lib Dems have lost, know they’ve lost, and have switched their entire attention to the Conservative voting villages around Darlington in the hope that their negative campaigning will draw away Conservatives voters from me”
Burbachchris. Blue Moon is one of the most perceptive Tory posters on the site. Probably THE most.
5. Brown would be foolish to wait for the spring. By then, another housing market slowdown like that in 2005 may well be underway on the back of further rate rises. Autumn is a very good bet.
Edmund @ 4 ‘Looking at the long term, and everything except internal Tory politics, it’s not clear to me that Cameron’s doing too much wrong here.’
In the long term he could actually have done everything wrong. His strategy for power has consisted of two parts as far as I can tell. 1)Look ‘nice’ 2)Damage Brown as much as possible before he got in that he wouldn’t actually have to fight him at all.
By putting off anything of substance (forever by the looks of it, as these commissions never seem to actually be adopted into anything that the Tories say they will actually do) any fool would tell them - and I did - that they would not be able to sustain poll leads once Labour got rid of Blair.
The attacks on Brown were a ridiculous strategy, because if they didn’t work in knocking him out before he got there, then Brown would only ever have to be half way human to look better than the demonic, Stalinist, baby-eater that they were painting him to be. Once he exceeded expectations on that front by actually walking and talking normally, the battle moved straight away on to Brown territory - i.e. policies.
The question for the Tories is, is there a plan B? I am not sure, given the sketchiness of plan A, whether they got that far in their thinking.
Cash for honours isn’t finished yet. It looks like no charges were brought only because key evidence would have been ‘inadmissable’ - Labour got off on a technicality.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2116324.ece
I can still remember to this day the Rugby, Eastlands ward in the Warwickshire County Council Elections in 1993 where the Labour candidate “forgot” to sign his forms properly leaving the ward to be a straight Con / Lib Dem fight (which resulted in a Lib Dem gain). It’s been the closest to a “non aggression” pact between Labour and the Lib Dems that Britain has ever seen.
Somehow though I don’t see the Conservatives allowing the Lib Dems a clean shot at seats like Ealing, Southall which means the Conservatives might have to do something drastic like disband if they ever want to win another election and fight seats as Independents.
22. Non story put about by Yates. He would do his flagging career no harm by keeping quiet. Until he explains satisfactorally why the dawn raid on Ruth turner a single woman living alone was necessary he will remain no more than an old fashioned police thug.
Under first past the post, there is no point in running a candidate who has no chance of winning. Labour should really withdraw, from many S/SW seats, the Tories from Scotland and much of the North, particularly the inner cities. Effort wasted there should go into the winnable seats.
As for Newbury and Christchurch, Labour voters going tactical, something quite common in the far South, the Tories lost Poole and Mid-Dorset, for that reason.
Strange! those of us, (me) were very much in the minority when it came to predicting an autumn election, seems to be on the cards.
As for Cameron, going to Rwanda tomorrow, could be the biggest mistake he’ll ever make, ‘While the cats away, the mice will play’
“Blue Moon is one of the most perceptive Tory posters on the site.” [Roger]
I agree with The Excellent Roger, Blue Moon, but can you please paragraph your posts. There is something intimidating about a solid wall of print.
The content deserves a better layout.
Paul@24: So the question is, what is Cameron’s Plan B?
I’d have thought it would be the standard opposition MO - wait around being vaguely critical while trying not to pin yourself down on anything specific until the government screws up, then criticise the thing they screwed up on and make up some policies that make it appear that you would have done things differently.
Obviously there are some real risks in Cameron doing that here, namely :
a) His reputation as a lightweight / PR man gets so ingrained that no-one will take any notice of anything he says.
b) He’s missed his chance to fight internal battles while he’s ahead, so he risks showing off internal disunity at a critical time.
c) Brown could hit him with an early election before he has a chance to put his policy platform together.
But it’s not obvious that those risks are greater than the risks of making policy earlier - for example, being stuck fighting the election on a plan to do something to reduce house prices, when the housing market has just crashed and everyone’s main concern is negative equity…
Roger
Why did you not enter the by-election contest? Have you been banned for deliberately trying to come last?
17 Agreed but as the Conservatives kept saying in their bar charts , they were 2nd in ES in the 2006 locals Lab 38% Con 32% LibDem 19% - change on Thursday on a fairly similar turnout Lab +3 Con -10 LibDem +9 .
For Tories wondering why? reading this might give you food for thought.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2132188,00.html
Peter the Punter If he did that who knows he might win. Incidentally how’s Mighty Fella? How much training does he need after a long lay off? When’s his first proper race?
By the way I hope you heard about the guy who put £2 on the ’sweep six’ or something like that. He won the entire pot plus backed the bonus winner. Return £620,000. Good luck to him I say the t*****r!
24. Its only a non-story if the media treat it that way - lets wait to see who is in Blair’s resignation honours list - the other part of the story is that 8 - not the 4 that we knew about - of the donors (oops! sorry ‘lenders’) were originally proposed for honours. If any of them make Blair’s list……
I think we should expect all this stuff to get into the public domain sooner or later - possibly via the Select Ctte - and see continued dancing on Blair’s political grave. And if it leads to a fully elected HOL, so much the better.
28. PtP. Certainly not! I couldn’t access it on my Apple computer. I mentioned on the thread that unless they presented it differently they would be looking for a new wooden spooner! (Incidentally after my 8-10 Labour prediction I’ve been promoted to top tipster!)
Mike
NickP commented last night on the ‘weeks to a general election’ market and I agree with him that it’s pretty risky to sell. It’s not that I rule out an early date - I don’t - but a sudden change in the political climate could leave you with a big exposure.
Buying Labour seats is a much safer option. All the spread-type markets are well behind the polls in their ‘predictions’. I closed out some of my Labour positions a week or so ago in anticipation of bad by-election results. I’m now buying again.
The electorate seems to me to be increasingly dubious whether the Tories are actually close to being ready for power. There are four elements of a team ready to take power:
1. A likeable, confident leader
2. A clear sense of direction.
3. A few popular policies, and nothing terribly unpopular
4. A disciplined party that overwhelmingly accepts all the above.
They’ve got number 1. But their best friends wouldn’t accuse them of 2, and at present they don’t have 3. And they certainly don’t have 4. I don’t mean the Wintertons and Leighs, but the mainstream - a bit of trouble and they waver between expelling each other and despairing.
Labour’s ballast in the last 10 years has been the core of 200 or so MPs who took controversy after controversy with calm fortitude, with TB and GB both notable for their unruffled public manner. I know the jibe that we’re all clones, but people like to see a bit of steadiness under fire. Even people who really want to get rid of Labour hesitate to put the fractious, twitchy and uncertain Tories in charge of running Britain.
Cameron needs to stop focussing on the mood music (trips to the North Pole, Africa etc) and get down to some hard edged, old fashioned, politics.
He should start with the floods, and be shamelessly exploiting them for all their worth. The govt DOES share a large part of the responsibility and the disaster cuts across many areas of Govt policy - housing policy, planning policy, lamentable performance at DEFRA causing insufficient investment in Flood defences, spending of the contingency reserve (money) to pay for mismanagement of Govt finances in recent years, spending of the contingency reserve (people) on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq…
You don’t even have to agree with all these points, or the extent to which the Govt is actually to blame, to see that it should be a minefield for the opposition. And yet their responses have been half-hearted, and IMPORTANTLY consistently fail to put forward an overwhelming critique of the govt - the opposition at the moment is all tactics and little strategy, and that is what inevitably leads to a situation where the Govt can brush off criticism as “opportunism”.
David Cameron is in Rwanda.
31 Mighty Fella
Thanks for your interest in Fella. A bulletin is long overdue.
The injury was much worse than originally thought and there were doubts about whether he would run again. We gave him a good long rest and he had a couple of trials last week. He has come through without any reaction, which was our main hope. He also recorded quickish times, so it seems the injury and lay-off may not have blunted his speed.
He is due to run competitively at Walthamstow next week and I’ll report back then.
By the way, some dog lovers on the site have expressed concern about what happens to him when he does retire. He will go to the home one of the owners. I would like to take him myself but my flat isn’t entirely suitable, although I would do so anyway if the alternative was the retirement home.
The problem for Cameron is surely much deeper and more fundamental than you are all acknowledging.
The trouble is, Gordon Brown is a one nation Tory. As was Tony Blair. They have essentially accepted the Thatcherite economic revolution. They are very pro-market, but like to ameliorate the impact of a market economy on the poor with some socialistic welfare twiddling. The actual effect of their policies is to enrich the country - we have a strong economy - but at the expense of social mobility, and at the expense of the indigenous working classes. A rum result for supposed lefties.
Indeed, Brown is arguably further to the right than Blair was, at least on the libertarian-authoritarian axis. Brown is very pro-ID cards, he wants to reclassify cannabis, he’s stopped supercasinos, etc.
Cameron’s problem must be seen in this light. Where can he take the Tories that makes sense? Brown is already a centrist Tory, he squats amidships. Cameron can’t outflank Brown on the left, Tory MPs wouldn’t stand for it. He can’t tack back to the right - IDS and Howard tried that and it didn’t work. So what we get is a confused assault on Brown from all angles - one minute libertarian (no to ID cards), the next minute old fashioned social conservative (£20 for marrieds!). There’s no coherent theme. Rightwing policies that might actually be popular - a clampdown on immigration, or significant tax cuts - are regarded as either too nasty or too drastic. And, to be fair, when they have been tried the Labour party has whipped up the liberal elite and the liberal media to undermine Tory self confidence. Tories are pathetically scared of Polly Toynbee.
This is Cameron’s difficulty. This is the Tory party’s nightmare. We are already governed by a Tory party, called New Labour. It’s even more paternalist, even more authoritarian-Conservative under Brown than it was under Blair. As long as the economy stays good voters see no need to switch back to the old failed Tory party, which doesn’t seem to know what it believes in anymore, anyway.
Cameron needs the winds to shift. He needs events to assist him. But the political jetstream seems determined to drizzle on his parade.
33 Sorry Roger, I thought you’d got round the ‘Apple’ problem.
Yeah, I noticed you’ve had a couple of successes. Spoils the fun a bit.
“We have yet to see anti-Labour tactical voting on such a scale. The Ealing election proved it.” Dunfermline 2006, Brent East 2003, Blaenau Gwent 2005 show it happens when the Tories make token effort. Mr Smithson makes an interesting point, the risks are so great giving ammo to Edward Leigh and poison pen pieces by Melissa Kite in today’s Sunday Telegraph, and the rewards not huge enough, that short of a By-Election in a Kent marginal with a risible Lib Dem vote that may make even the legendary Rennard think twice, the Tories may think carefully about putting so much effort again in trying to reverse a 25 year pheneomenon
32. Probably right Carlotta. Incidentally If you want to see a poor loser go and have a read of Guido’s site-but take a sick bag with you
38
agree, agree, agree.
When Cameron pops off to Rwanda, he should make the following statement, ‘I’m just going outside now, I could be gone for some time’
38 - Quite. So the Tories should be hammering the competence issue for all it’s worth. There is barely a Govt department where you couldn’t highlight a failure which has cost the tax payer a few billion pounds here or there. The public know of hardly any of them. Even with tax credits people only know of them where they affect them rather than the losses sustained overall. Where people have abandoned the Govt on Tax credits they have done so because of personal losses upto a few thousand pounds, not because of national losses of billions.
34: PtP - for those who punt, I suspect that selling Tory seats is actually slightly better than buying Labour ones, as the main story at the moment is Tory disarray. The LibDems may well pick up a bit - they *are* displaying steadiness under fire, and some anti-Labour voters could start to shift to them from the Tories rather than go straight over to Labour. The LibDem freefall in the polls has halted.
River Avon has burst its banks.
38 A surprisingly well stated and lucid arguement from you with which I largely agree .
44 - “The LibDem freefall in the polls has halted.”
Because they hit the ground?
38 Yup. Me too.
45 It is no surprise , that rivers burst their banks after unusually heavy rain - it has been that way for 10’s of thousands of years . What has not been there for that long are thousands of homes built on natural flood plains so again it should be expected not a surprise that houses have been flooded .
38: Absolutely nails Cameron’s predicament.
I’d be interested to hear what people think he should do about it.
Alex’s suggestion: Hammer the government on competence issues.
My suggestion: Hang around talking vaguely and smiling at people hoping something bad happens. (Also appears to be the strategy being followed by the man himself.)
Any better ideas?
47 In a sense, Alex, they have. They are down to 45 on Spreadfair. It would actually be difficult for them to register lower than that at an election, because of the number of MPs they have with large personal votes.
Makes them a good buy.
49 - and your point is? That there is no substantial political capital to be made? Strange how that philosophy didn’t apply in New Orleans.
Put quite simply, Ming has positioned himself closer to labour so the tories are faced with what is perceived as labour or those who are working with labour (Williams, Carlile etc).
In these circumstances Cameron will want to reduce the power of lib dems, as he fears that labour will just do a post election deal with them.
Peter the Punter Mike.
I have a fair amount of Labour to sell and a few Tories to buy on Spreadfair… what sort of levels are you looking at?
FWIW I think that Labour will inevitably do worse than they did last time whatever the fluctuations of the polls.
Partly I also think buying Tories in the 250 area is a good deal. If I am expensively wrong I think the Tories probably are finished, at least in the sense that the Liberals were 80 years ago. I would have some compensation in that I think us LDs would be the eventual beneficiary… at least in this part of the world we would see a solid gold one party state within the next decade.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WING NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND has reported to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises, ICM, MORI, YouGov and Populus. CR are temporarily excluded as they have not issued a post Blair poll.
The new figures give :
Con 33.75% .. Lab 39.5% .. LibDem 16.75% .. Others 10%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 219 seats .. Labour 362 .. LibDem 40 .. Others 29.
Labour majority of 74.
………………………
Sources :
WIND….. Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN…… Jacobite News Network
ARSE….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
PISSED… Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Deteminator
SOAMES… System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
44 Yes Nick, that’s a good point.
We know that falling Conservative popularity will cause an increase in both Labour and LD seats, all other things being equal. It’s probably marginally better therefore to sell Tories rather than buy Labour.
Watch the size of the spread though. You can get some huge ‘gaps’ on Spreadfair.
52 That philosophy certainly applied to New Orleans on an even larger scale . It has led to the reluctance of many people to move back to live in an area which is prone to another natural disaster at some future date .
51 Peter actually LDs haven’t been anywhere near 45 yet - the low traded I believe it still above 50. 45 certainly hasn’t gone through - it is my bid and has been there for weeks.
24 - I wouldn’t keep stoking the fires of cash for honours if I was you, this is going to run and run, for those who thought Iraq would go away here’s another one and the evidence for this
government’s corruption is piling up.
The boil could have been lanced by a trial, now its just going to grow until it bursts.
[38] Good call, Sean - we always knew you could talk sense when you felt like it ;).
I see that pb.c features in the Sunday Times. Cameron will be instructing staff to clear rooms of any stray copies of the Sunday Times and Telegraph before he enters. horrendous reading for him. When will Hague pounce?
57 - I’m not sure if you’re being deliberately obtuse, or if we’re just at total cross purposes.
1) Natural disasters happen and only so much can be done to prevent them.
2) Political capital can be made out of them when they do happen, especially when Govt policy and mismanagement has led to many of the problems.
Have the Tory malcontents overreached themselves though by moving prematurely. The reaction from the Tories here right across the spectrum with the possible exception of Rik W took me aback in the scale of hostility. The reactions of Ian Dale and even Tim Montgomerie wereno less strong. It makes me wonder if the name of one of these MPs comes into public domain as it may,that they well may end being lynched by their Consituency Party. Like many coup plotters the malcontents may well have bungled by going off prematurely and half cocked. The end result could be a strengthened Cameron perhaps…….
43. The extraordinary thing is how Blair and Brown have managed to utterly neuter the leftwing of the Labour party - to get them to agree to such a rightwing leadership. It must be one of the most remarkable feats in modern British politics. Not one of Blair’s or Brown’s policies would seem uncomfortable coming from an old fashioned paternalistic Tory like, say, Macmillan. Most of New Labour’s policies could be happily espoused by Thatcher.
Yet the Labour party just sits there and accepts it. Or the more passionate just leave the party - witness the plummeting party membership figures. For its leftwing activists, Labour is a whited sepulchre.
I guess that’s what 18 years of opposition does to you. Makes you so desperate for victory you happily turn into your enemy.
Wonder what the Tory party will look like after its fourth consecutive defeat….
I still think this is a Cameron Collapse more than a Brown Bounce - very much for the reasons given by Sean T above. The Government is likely to become more unpopular in the autumn /next spring but Cameron’s instinct for cocking up policy announcements should see a swing away from Labour with the LDs as the likely beneficiaries.
I thought this comment from ConHome (don’t you just love them)expresses the odd situation the Tories are in: “Iain Duncan-Smith has just delivered a raft of social policy ideas that have made many people see a very different side to today’s Conservative Party, even if there are serious questions regarding the practicality and depth of the ideas which are on offer.”
I translate this as IDS has produced a rubbish set of policies which even if we understood we don’t agree with but I suppose we have at least produced something.
Wait until we get their tax (more of) and European policies!!!
63 - maybe the news of this ‘letter’ was leaked by the leadership?
50
The Peter Hitchens analysis has also to be considered, he believes (as I do) that the Tory Party is an unsustainable dichotomy, that a split is inevitable, and out of that a new party of the right will arise. One of the reasons why New Labour has been such success as a party, was the end of its internal disputes. The old neo-Marxist left was routed, the managerial types took over, not interested in ideology as such, interested in ‘problem solution’ Its most important change, it no longer threatens the middle classes, in fact the opposite, it removes guilt from wealth, ‘I know I’m wealthy send my children to private schools etc. but I do vote Labour’ That’s ok then, stop worrying, you’ll go to heaven.
60 IA. I want the poncey boots seanT back please …. my whole PB radar has gone AWOL.
Next we’ll have Rik contemplating defecting to Worthing Lib Dems, hand in hand with Mark Senior !! ….. mad, mad, the worlds gone mad !!!
62 Perhaps we are at part at cross purposes
1) Agree totally
2) Disagree because the cause of the problem goes back over decades with various governments and councils building houses where natural disasters were bound to occur at some stage .
So, who are these spineless wonders demanding a no confidence vote in Cameron?
Be careful what you wish for I say. We will deserve to be sent into the political wilderness for 50 years at the next GE (it will be soon) if we install a right wing leader again (which is what this is all about).
At least 30 or 40% or our current right wing vote who do not like Cameron or the move to the centre will not be around in 10 years… nor will many of the MP’s like Quentin Davis who don’t belong in the new party.
It would probably cause a temporary bounce in popularity, followed by a drop back to the low 30’s, where we would stay.
Currently, the only reason we are in the 30’s is because of the Brown bounce, which will hit trouble at some point soon AND when the media get boared with kicking Cameron and turn on Ming and/or Brown.
I say, if we really must, let’s have this out once and for all. Although damaging, if enough MP’s want a leadership vote, let’s do it. It will only prove to re-enforce Cameron as the man to lead this party.
Matt.
67 - …and that solution is, in the long run, labour’s greatest problem. No ideological mooring, just managerial.
I think that Conservatives are in shock - none of us believed that Brown was likeable and would have a bounce. We deluded ourselves.
Cameron has put the Conservative back in the game.
The LDs did not win either by-election - and they would have done in most years since the formation of the SDP.
I still think give Brown enough rope - and enough time for the voters to see him in action and the ‘Bounce’ will soon bump. If I was Brown I would cut and run while the going is good.
re spreadfair, I have a fair amount of labour seats that were bought at around 280 not sure how long I will keep these. I sold those I had bought at approx 275 a little while ago, I suspect that the market sentiment might rise a little over the next week or so then go into hibernation over the summer. I also have a small position on selling tory seats at 273 which I might be inclined to close down in the near future.
I have a theory that most of the money on spreadfair comes from tory inclined folk which means that this market reflects an optimistic tory view rather than a more neutral view.
Alex. The difficulty with the Tories launching an assault on Labours performance is that it always leads to the question ‘well what are your policies’ followed by incoherent noises and if infront of a studio audience- laughter. That is the crippling straight jacket that Cameron’s non direction has forced the Tory party into.
Whatever anyone thought of the ‘chamelion campaign’ it was perfectly positioned and though it doesn’t register in anyones consciousness anymore it’s effect in pointing to a truth was brilliantly effective.
38. Sean, as always (though I dislike your politics) I always have thought that when you leave the bitterness aside, you are capable of putting forward a valid and coherent argument. Your argument, however, does raise two fundamental questions. 1) If Brown is a ‘Tory’, how did they ever think they could paint him as a ‘wolf in sheeps clothing’, the unacceptable face of Socialism waiting in the wings, when it was clear that if he got in (I still think their whole strategy was to prevent that from happening at all costs) and 2) what can they do now?
Are you essentially saying that if Cameron fails to challenge at the next election, that Tony will have succeeded in destroying the Conservative Party for good? And are you essentially saying (by calling Brown a ‘Tory’) that Labour are the new millenium’s ‘natural party of Government’- with essentially 100-200 years of Labour rule, punctuated by short bursts of other government’s to rejuvinate the establishment? And furthermore, how are the opposition going to realign in the wake of this?
69 - I think you are confusing the issue of whether the Govt is actually to blame for the failings, with whether the blame can be pinned to them politically. There is enough to go on (as referred to above in 36) that the Opposition should be piling in for all they’re worth.
Bush and the Federal Govt arguably wasn’t to blame for most of the failings in New Orleans. His opponents did a pretty good of attaching the blame to him though.
After ten years of Labour Govt the Conservatives should no longer fear attempted comebacks from Labour about “decades of mismanagement and underinvestment”. That is not a defence that is likely to work any more, however much justification it might have.
74 - Managerial Competence and policy implementation are too different issues. You don’t have to have a raft of policies to attack on the former.
71
The British people do not like ideology, (probably something to do with the old Puritan Commonwealth) they despise it. The success of the Old Conservative party was it wasn’t a political party, it was a social movement, dominated by old patrician families, who saw themselves as protectors of ‘Albion’ supported by those who shared that vision. The ideal state for most ‘Old Conservatives’ was Arthur’s Britain, a wise monarch, ruling justly, surrounded by his brave knights sallying out to protect the weak, and bash the bounders.
68. Jack W - heh - yes, I’ve come over all Captain Sensible this morning, er, if you know what I mean. I’ve got an “amusing” chapter to do in my memoirs today, so I think I’m offloading all the serious stuff first. I’ll be back to normal soon, promise.
75. I do think a fourth defeat for the Tories (which right now looks quite likely) could precipitate a political earthquake. What that will constitute I’m not sure. Will they give Cameron another go? What’s the point? How many more orphans can he hug? Does it convince anyone?
That said, we should remember two things. There is a huge bedrock vote for the Tories, especially in England (perhaps a bedrock plurality). That isn’t going anywhere. Also, as John Wheatley said on here the other day, the political heartbeat of the nation is probably to the right of ALL the major parties - absurd but true. On issues like the death penalty, immigration, the EU, etc, all three major parties are on the left of the British people.
Eventually this remarkable anomaly will surely be corrected. Quite how that will happen, I confess I don’t know. Maybe electoral and Lords reform will shift the paradigm…
58 Jon
That’s the trouble with quoting Spreadfair prices when there is so little liquidity. The bare numbers don’t tell the full story.
As regards your earlier query, you seem to be looking at the question the wrong way. It’s not what the Tories will get at the GE that matters from a punting perspective, but how the markets will move of the short to medium term. I closed out my Conservative buys at a loss this morning on the basis that they are unlikely to go above 253 for some while, and may well go a fair bit lower.
As to what they will get at the GE, who knows? I suspect about 250 (Hung Parliament territory) but that’s a real shot in the dark.
The interesting poll will be next weeks Guardian ICM.
Todays MORI poll was pre byelections and You Gov was Thursday Friday.
Anyone like to conjecture on how the ratings will change from ICM guardian end of June which had Lab 39,Con 35,Lib18?
To asess real impact of Brown honeymoon/damage to Tories/Lib dem stagnation w ewill have to wait until after Parliament reassembles say Early December.
On an Brune calling an early election whatever current polls show,I don’t beleve voters like an unneccasary election - they may punish rather than praise.
Rogerh
90% of all govt cock ups are the fault of civil servants. The Govt gets the blame for them. Harsh but that’s the way it is. Politics is a hard business and a serious opposition should not spend their time debating whether the Govt is responsible before trying to exploit an issue for political capital.
David. This Tory idea that Brown would/will implode has always been built on flaky foundations. Until ‘05 and his leadership problems with Blair he was possibly the most popular member of the government.
So much so that before the last election the polls were giving Labour several extra points if Brown had been leader. He lost some support because of the failed coup but the idea that Blair was much more popular is a just an Osborne myth.
58 Jon - I read the wrong line. It should have been 48 on Spreadfair. Still very low though and a probable buy.
No matter what the Tories had done, there is just not the utter hatred of Labour that there was of the Tories in the 90s and there was never going to be a swing against Labour in the region of the swings recorded in the above examples.
81 I quite liked the comment on Conhome . Let’s wait and see what a Yougov poll has to say . That was a Yougov poll SHIIIIITT !!!!
First time post, please be gentle..
63: Agree. I think there’s a line that was crossed last night with this letter. It was a case of “here we go again”, and by the look of it patience has finally snapped with those wanting another change of leadership. The reaction of everyone from the Telegraph leader today to even ConIDS.
Whether it’s a turning point for recent fortunes remains to be seen, but I can’t imagine anyone sensible in the Tory party wanting yet another round of infighting. A good 10-15 years of it must get pretty waring.
The Tories’ big problem is that they are doing now what they should have been doing in 2001. Perhaps in 1997 as well, although Hague couldn’t have done much else.
For years, the party has (to an outsider like me) tried to put off the reforms by moving to the centre. They bottled out of it in 2001 when they elected IDS instead of Ken Clarke. As a result, the “traditional” mindset became too entrenched.
Now Cameron is trying to do exactly that and he’s getting the inevitable backlash by his own party.
If anything, I think it’s a generational thing. Cameron is 2001 intake, and has a far different approach to life in general than many of his detractors (who I suspect are either quite elderly or absolutely entrenched in their desire for “clear blue water”).
I think Cameron wants an early election not just to beat Brown (which he won’t at the moment), but to get many more of “his” type of MP in. Leaner, meaner and more hungry ones.
73 Re ‘Tory’ bias in political betting. As I posted yesterday the conventional bookmakers were very accurate overall at the last GE as far as betting on individual seats were concerned anyway. As far as Spreadfair is concerned you’d be remarkably foolish to let your heart rule your head; you can lose a lot of money in a hurry here. The seats odds are way out of line with the polls but bear in mind that the GB bounce hasn’t been going for too long. If the Guardian’s ICM next week is in line with this weekend’s polls we will surely significant continuing moves up for Labour and down for the Tories. If Labour bottle it this September I’d be looking to buy the Tories expecting a bit of a bounce on the back of a likely good conference performance by DC but that’s a long way ahead; a lot of water will have passed under the bridge before then.
59. Paul. I wouldn’t bet on that. Jonathon Powell’s wife described the police tactics as Gestapo like in an article this morning. The early morning arrest of Ruth Turner is proving very difficult to brush aside. I’ve heard two policemen on the radio this morning very much on the back foot failing to do so.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2132043,00.html
Newbury and Christchurch weren’t remotely comparable to Southall and Sedgefield - Labour started in a very poor third place in both seats. More comparable are two other by-elections in the 1992-7 Parliament: Eastleigh (1994)and Littleborough & Saddleworth (1995).
In both cases Labour also started third, but with a significant base: 21% in Eastleigh and 20% in L&S. Lab put in the kind of effort that the Tories mounted in Southall. The Lib Dems won both by-elections - but Labour’s support still rose, by 7 and 14 points respectively, to overtake the Tories, which fell from 1st to 3rd place in both contests.
Now THAT is the kind of main-opposition performance in difficult seats that leads to victory at the following general election - and the kind of governing party performance (Tories down 27 points in Eastleigh and 21 points in L&S) that presages defeat.
Cameron’s problem is fairly clear..the approach of him and his cohorts is plain crap. It’s fluff, no backbone, no fight and no offensive.
On these floods. Given that there seems to be a shortage of such things as helicopters and so on shouldnt we be asking our European friends for some help?
I’d forgotten how high the turnout was at Newbury and Christchurch: over 50,000 votes cast at each. Astonishing for a by-election.
Hasn’t Rob Hayward (the Tory candidate at Christchurch) posted here once or twice?
87 AaD. Welcome. Keep posting.
90 - that is absolutely correct. If the by-elections had been in Liverpool Garston and Newcastle Central (where Greg Stone stood last time in fact) then the analogy with Newbury and Christchurch might have worked. The Tories could have stuck out an election address and shrugged their shoulders when they lost their deposit.
80 depends what kind of punter you are… if you take a “day trader” type view then yes but otherwise you have to think about what can actually take place at the next election.
I think this is actually a very poor market for a day trader type strategy as dealing spreads are so large compared with the plausible range.
I’m prepared to see it go miles against me… a 50 grand loss would be rather upsetting but it could only happen in a world where myself and a lot of my little yellow friends would see ourselves getting elected - it’d be worth a thumping loss for the greater good of Britain ;).
95 Very altruistic Jon. Personally, I’d sooner have the 50k.
90 With those By-Elections there wasn’t a new PM just a month into his term though was there. Wrt to ES they were in 3rd place a long way off Labour anyway
Peter Kellner. Fair point but these Labour performances were achieved in the run up to a Labour landslide; I don’t think anyone has ever suggested that we were looking at that scenario for the Conservatives at any time since DC became leader.
Although Tony Lit’s photograph was a hammer blow for the campaign I’ve no doubt that he did far better than a conventional candidate who would have been squeezed mercilesssly by the LDs. Then we’d have had headlines; ‘Cameron under mounting pressure after poll disasters’. I can imagine Mark Field’s post on Conservative Home: ‘The worst of these dreadful results was that, unforgivably, the Party didn’t even seem to try, going down to defeat pathetically like lambs to the slaughter’ The truth is that the by elections on their own would be quickly forgotten; it’s their combination with poor polls that are causing today’s bad press. The Conservatives need to use the next couple of months seeking to dent Labour’s lead sufficiently that GB decides not to risk an autumn poll. That will then give DC that most precious commodity- time- to rebuild his and the Party’s fortunes.
88 - Do you think conventional bookmakers make money out of political betting? They have a good record in that they seem to base their initial odds on a uniform expected swing, adjusting them as large bets go on. But there is so much inside information. I have made a huge amount betting on seats at General Elections (indeed I have never lost and paid for a couple of excellent holidays).
I know at least a dozen people who made £500 plus (and in a couple of examples much more than that) out of the North Norfolk result last time. It was so obvious what was happening on the ground that it was effectively a one way bet. Were these balanced out by Tory mugs backing Dale? Or were Conservative workers in the constituency also making a sly monkey out of it? Maybe it’s an odd case - Dale’s blog was so bullish and well read even in those days that a fair number of mugs outside the constituency may have artificially supported his odds.
Here is something to make you sick:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2132043,00.html
Does she know what the Gestapo actually was?
Re 32, Carlotta, “lets wait to see who is in Blair’s resignation honours list ”
I don’t think he has got one, and if he had it would have been out by now.
99 - there were other great bets as well. 6/4 against the Lib Dems winning Bristol West, and this was available at least as late as the Monday of election week.
AaD [87] You say: “Whether it’s a turning point for recent fortunes remains to be seen, but I can’t imagine anyone sensible in the Tory party wanting yet another round of infighting. A good 10-15 years of it must get pretty waring.”
The operative word must be “sensible” - not much evidence of many sensible ones left!
101 - I guess now he’s gone, he’s not concerned enough about Labour’s bank balance to bother with one…
James, Jon, Icarus and Book Value … I am transported back to the heady days of Jody Dunn!
120.. yes because I believe she had an involvement with a book on the SOE in WW2….like she wrote it..assuming its the same Sarah Helm.
99 James
Outside of the big elections, I think they lose money. The amounts however are so small by their standards that they are not worried about it.
102. 13/2 against Tories winning Ham & Fulham in 2006 locals was rather juicy as well.
100. Absolutely. I think the Labour party is in danger of pouring gasoline on a dying flame by attacking the police on this.
Let’s face it, the whole thing stinks. Labour were very lucky, they got off on a technicality. Everybody knows honours are sold, by all parties. See the Sunday Times today. What makes Labour’s position even more insecure is that they made new laws to prevent this kind of corruption, laws which they then deliberately circumvented with secret loans at bizarre interest rates, loans which they concealed from their own Treasurer. All this is undisputed.
If Labour have any sense they will shut up immediately about this, and quietly cash their Get Out of Jail Free card, and count their lucky stars. And never mention this again.
Any hint of whingeing or assaults on the police with absurd comparisons to the Gestapo looks very very bad, and will provoke unpredictable reactions.
Silly people.
Lifted from ConHome:
Cameron on prison reform
“I believe that we need to harness the expertise, the compassion and the common sense of independent organisations who have a freedom and flexibility that national agencies like the prison service and the probation service can sometimes lack. Ex-offenders needs human relationships as well as official ones. I am convinced that the voluntary sector has a central role in resettlement, putting in place the supportive structures so that former criminals make the right decisions for themselves: our society, your life.Knowing Gordon Brown, he will shortly announce plans with a striking similarity to those I am proposing.” - David Cameron in the Sunday Telegraph.
Reading between the lines -”Its not fair that Brown takes all my policies. I really dont have a clue what to do about it”
And Tabman - too few posts from you recently!- has BT (or Mrs T) got you doing some work!
Can anyone help? I keep trying to connect to a weblog called politicalbetting.com. This is a website where Partisan posters slag off each others opinions with blinkered vituperative language, spiced up with lavish dollops of personal abuse.
I keep clicking on the usual connection but all I am getting is this thread full of polite reasonable and well argued contributors.
Please someone tell me where it’s gone?
103 - “The operative word must be “sensible” - not much evidence of many sensible ones left!”
I would have agreed with you until I read the Telegraph leader and most of the comments pages this morning
Perhaps the headbangers have opened their mouth once too often?
109 SeanT
Second time I’ve agreed with you this morning. (A third brings automatic referral to the Disciplinary Committee.)
Everybody concerned would be well advised to let the CfH thing quietly expire. The Police know a lot. Anybody gets lippy about them and there will be trouble, I’m sure.
106 - so she really should know better…
108 - yes, I had that bet too, and won on Richmond too as well as a couple of others: in fact those London locals probably gave the biggest ratio ever of financial return compared to the amount of analysis needed to do the bet.
114. Book Value, how many times have you been arrested by the police?
Book Value. Did you read the articlke before you posted it?
“‘I know one shouldn’t make these comparisons, but I was writing about Nazi Germany right then and I couldn’t help think: Gestapo tactics! Pick on the vulnerable, preferably a single woman, living alone. No matter that you may have nothing on her that will ultimately stand up in court - give her a scare.’”
111 It’s still here, StJohn, but we’re playing by Sunday morning rules.
Book Value. Did you read the article before you posted it?
“‘I know one shouldn’t make these comparisons, but I was writing about Nazi Germany right then and I couldn’t help think: Gestapo tactics! Pick on the vulnerable, preferably a single woman, living alone. No matter that you may have nothing on her that will ultimately stand up in court - give her a scare.’”
87 Ouch just read the ST editorial. Calling for the headbanging nuts to “be crushed.” The letter writers must be praying Heffer can come to their aid in the Daily tomorrow. I see your point. I now think they may well have made a serious mistake. They have shot their bolt prematurely and now there maybe a price to pay……
99 - “Dale’s blog was so bullish” - small typo in the word bullish?
109. Its not the party. From what I can tell the grandees of Labour want it shut down, put in a box and left.
Whether Powell, Levy & ilk are going to play ball with that approach is another story.
They are welcome to try to start screaming over it. The cops’ case was pulled fairly late by the CPS and they have plenty of items to leak to defend themselves.
we all knew thats what is going to happen in the first few months of the brown takeovera bohnce in the polls
we have to keep calm and give all our support to our leader, and not to get involved in what laber wants us to,
lets not forget there is not going to be a GE soon,
119 - it’s a bit insincere though isn’t it: “I know I shouldn’t say this but… [goes right on to say it]“.
Your leader should have been “Should Cameron have bothered trying at all to be leader of the Tories, let only bother trying to change them?”
Is this the time for the SDP moment in reverse British politics? Is this the time when Cameron, Osbourne, Letwin, Gove reaching out to Laws, Clegg, and to Frank Field, Kate Hoey. The likes of Milburn and Charles Clarke may also come.
Is this the time for a new centre right party in British politics? The DEMOCRATS. There appear to be enough unhappy bunnies, unhappy in the clothes of their party. The Tories as they are now are clearly unelectable and beyond redemption. The council elections, like so many before, were simply a false dawn.
This is probably the only way Cameron in my opinion could defeat Brown and become PM.
117. Picking on people and giving them a scare! What naughty people those Gestapo types were.
“13/2 against Tories winning Ham & Fulham in 2006 locals was rather juicy as well.” - that was a case of bookies looking at the size of the majority on the council and not noticing that the individual wards had tiny majorities.
116. They didn’t “pick on the vulnerable”.
She was a suspect in a very serious case. Suspects get arrested at dawn. So they can’t erase evidence. That’s how it works. Or do Labour bigwigs think they should be treated differently to ordinary people?
Ah, but bless her, she was a poor single woman living alone on £100,000 a year. With only the Prime Minister for a friend. How did she cope?!
Pass the sickbag. Labour leaders really should lay off playing the victim card. It sticks in the craw.
87: Welcome to “a & d” - interesting first post.
ukpaul has subsided from his “I’ll smash anyone in the room who disagrees with me” line after the CPS decision, but he’s clearly still very angry about it and thinks it has electoral potential. He’s a serious contributor and eeserves a serious reply. For what it’s worth, this is my take:
1. It’s well known that if you assist a political party over a period - whether by hard work or donations - you are more likely to get a peerage in the party category. I doubt if there’s ever been a political system anywhere in the world where that wasn’t true. Everyone knows it and most people find it mildly distasteful but they don’t get worked up about it (especially if the laternative is to take money from taxation). Lords reform will help address it, though the distinction from people who get a safe seat because they’re loyal supporters is not that sharp.
2. It is however illegal to make a specific link: “give me £X and we’ll make you a peer”. That was the original basis for the police investigation. It became rapidly apparent that there was no solid evidence for this. At that point, I’d argue that the investigation should have been wound up.
3. However, Inspector Yates believed that some people might be concealing solid evidence, and he’s a gung-ho sort of chap, so he undertook a series of high-profile maneoevres to ’shake the tree’ - the cautions, the arrests, the dawn raid, and (I suspect) the leaks to the press. He hoped that this would shake people into producing the evidence that he thought they might be concealing.
4. Since this didn’t have that effect, the CPS decided there was no basis to prosecute.
Now I think that ukpaul is failing to separate anger over point 1 with facts on point 2. He’s outraged by the way the system works. But if there is no concrete evidence of anyone breaking the law, then the CPS decision is not a cover-up, it’s simply a refl