What’s the political fall-out from the flooding?
July 23rd, 2007
How are Gord and Dave doing as the crisis continues?
As was seen in the US in 2005 the way that governments respond to natural disasters such as flooding can have a significant and lasting political impact. The manner of the Bush administration’s response Hurricane Katrina was cited by many as a major reason why the Republicans did so badly in the US mid-term elections last November.
Clearly what we have had in the UK in the past few weeks is not on that scale but there’s a similar expectation that governments should be there to help when things like this happen and inevitably it’s going to be hard to satisfy everybody.
Already recent events have brought into focus the levels of spending on flood defences and an issue is now coming to the fore about the numbers of new homes that have been built in areas more susceptible to problems. This is likely to develop this week.
Gordon Brown has visited some of the earlier areas to be affected and is to make new visits today. How will this go down?
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For David Cameron the rising waters in his own constituency in Oxfordshire gave him lots of coverage yesterday easing some of the pressure that was being created following last week’s by elections. But is today’s trip to Rwanda to focus on global poverty a wise move when there are so many problems at home?
Looking at the list of target seats on UK Polling Report there do not seem to be many LAB-CON marginals in the affected areas. Even if there were there’s always the blame game that can go on between central and local government.
We might get some sense of the political impact in two key polls where the fieldwork started on Friday and finished yesterday. These are the regular ICM survey for the Guardian and the Communicate Research poll for the Independent which should appear in the next few days.
Mike Smithson
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It will be interesting to see whether Yvette Cooper has the sense to announce an immediate moratorium on building on flood plains pending further study. This BBC story says not but a week is a long time in politics.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6911119.stm
Though apparently not long enough for Dave to postpone his Rwanda trip.
out of interest, for anyone that likes giving the express a kicking, it is worthwhile to note that they spent the whole of april and may saying how it was gonna be a record breaking heatwaves all summer with not a drop of water.
As for how it will play i’m really not sure, although i bet cameron wished his little away trip hadnt been planned for this week. In a way I feel sorry for the guy cus as much as i think that it is a morally good cause, it will be painted as a cheap PR stunt.
1 - who will be first with the FLOODS TO HIT HOUSE PRICES headline? The Express or the Mail? I guess with the Express, it’s contending with FLOODS BURY DIANA EVIDENCE.
2 - who will be first with the FLOODS TO HIT HOUSE PRICES headline? The Express or the Mail? I guess with the Express, it’s contending with FLOODS BURY DIANA EVIDENCE.
sorry, should have been for 1 rather than 2.
3 - Anyone living on a hill is in clover
Its all God’s fault if he/she doesn’t stop this rain I’ll stop believing in him/her. What do we pay that ArchBishop of Canterbury for, hasn’t he got a decent prayer in his armoury? I’m off to Stonhenge to sacrifice a goat.
7 - It’s the wrath of Hogwarts cos the Christians wouldn’t let the filmmakers use that Cathedral they wanted!
Curiously enough, the main current issue in the southern tip of my constituency is a campaign AGAINST a flood protection proposal. There is a big scheme to protect Greater Nottingham, but it involves a flood wall along a village path, and villagers are up in arms against it as it will obscure a nice view. They would like it re-routed, partly to avoid this and partly to protect their cricket and bowls fields as well (currently seen as a potential reservoir for flood water when it arises). Many of the people affected have been flooded in the past so it can’t just be dismissed as a NIMBY issue, but it shows how localised and complex these issues get. It has to be said that recent events have weakened the prospects of their getting the planning committee to reject the proposal: if it’s rejected, the chance that the Agency will take their money elsewhere (rather than offer the campaigners’ preferred route) must be high at this point.
Conversely, those who don’t feel threatened by floods mostly just think ‘poor people, I hope they can be helped’. Political activists tend to see everything in terms of impact on voting, but most people don’t really think like that. They’ll be glad to see GB and DC visiting flood areas but it’s not the aspect that will concern them most.
When I was a kid, I used to go newt collecting in my home town in a place called “Flood Meadows”. Whren I went back a few years ago, I was amazed to see that they’ve built a housing estate on it now.
If you build houses on a place calld “Flood Meadows”, you’re an idiot.
If you buy a house in a place called “Flood Meadows”, you’re an idiot.
If you now live in a place called “Flood Meadows” and you’re now under 4ft of water, don’t blame God; don’t blame global warming; don’t even blame the government. You only have yourself to blame.
The clue was in the question. “Flood, Bloody, Meadows”
9 Interesting point Nick. You’re right - what people want and whatthey vote for is a very complex equations.
I wonder if they also acknowledge and accept the risk of occasional flooding, and weigh that against the quality of their local environment the other 99.9999% of the time.
We can’t avoid/insure/mitigate/blame someone for every natural phenomenon in our lives (nor should we) - sometimes we have to live with risk & its consequences in an understood balance.
Of course if you build houses on flood plains, you are kinda asking for it….
Labor’s blind eye to the floods is stark contrast to the 40 million Cash before the 2005 election.
Brown’s plan to build houses to house the 3 million immigrants will worsen flooding in the South.
Labour’s 3 million immigrants should be housed in Scotland where 8% of the population occupy 1/3 of the land area.
Why is wanting to retain two local amenities disparaged as NIMBY Nick?
Is any attempt to preserve local countryside, amenities, greenery, trees, always NIMBY? Please suggest some rules that mean one can oppose plans without being accused of being the equivalent of a Chelsea Tractor driver. Frankly I reckon bowls and cricket are probably more important (says the man who was more interested in Padraig winning yesterday than any floods on the tv - he was 33/1 in the morning).Get the planners to find another solution.
Opposition to building is also about humans being in harmony with their environment - and not abusing it. I know this does not apply to the work in Broxtowe,but get building on brown field, not on green field as far as humanly possible. Do people looking for low cost housing want to be stuck out on the dge of towns?
12 Labor’s blind eye to the floods is stark contrast to the 40 million Cash for China’s Rover before the 2005 election.
Brown’s plan to build houses for 3 million immigrants will worsen flooding in the South.
Labour’s 3 million immigrants should be housed in Scotland where 8% of the population occupy 1/3 of the land area.
Floods are always the government’s fault. Gordon Brown was the lucky Chancellor. Will he be the unlucky Prime Minister?
Interesting that there is deafening silence from the Torygraph Editorial on the fracas in the Tory Party today. Even the story itself gets minor albeit slightly snipy anti Cameron treatment. From this I think we can all assume once again a split between the Cameroon faction incl Editor,and the foaming mouth group led by Heffer. Clearly as long as he’s there the Torygraph is more likely to endorse UKIP, than the party which it gets its nickname from
The Sun seems unhappy with Brown.
After ‘Dumping’ on Cameron, they have their man in No 10.
They should be pleased
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2007330836,00.html
13 - wanna try reading Nick’s post again and trying to read it correctly this time?
12/14 MBookoo. Silly us …. it’s the immigrants fault for the flooding !!
Go to bed please Creature ….. it’s way past the witching hour.
17 Actually given their Gordtastic coverage recently that’s not too bad for Cameron. Gives GB a slap on the referendum too. Effect neutral I think
Meanwhile …. Bruce Anderson in the “Independent” on the state of the Conservative Party : …. It’s Wet Wet Wet.
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/bruce_anderson/article2793054.ece
William Rees Mogg, taking time off from writing, ‘Stalingrad, Hitler’s Greatest Victory’ has penned this for the Times, you’d think the editor might have noticed by now, that’ ‘The Mogg’ is now clinically insane.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article2120680.ece?Submitted=true
22 Why? Ok the 1784 reference betrays ahem a certain eccentricity, and the argument maybe stretching the elastic. Nevertheless it is just an extension of the 2005General Election result where the Tories gained 18 was it? seats off the back of Lab to Lib switching rather than direct increase in vote share, incl ironically one of Cameron’s fieercest opponents who has yet another pop in today’s Torygraph Philip Davies in Shipley
Meanwhile II …. Francis Elliot in the “Times” on Cameron fighting back against the traditionalists :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2120919.ece
22. ‘Delusional’ does not do it justice:
“If one adds in the by-election swings, Labour would actually have fallen below the Lib Dem share of the national vote, by 29 to 25 per cent; the Conservatives would have 34 per cent.”
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth…the polls say…..
Looking at those pictures of Tewkesbury Abbey. The Benedictine Monks of 1102, when construction started, had a better realisation of the flood plain than we appear to have today!
Meanwhile III …. Janet Daley in the “Telegraph” on why Cameron should halt his headlong rush to modernise the Conservative Party :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=E1ZGZ2EXRNDHZQFIQMGSFGGAVCBQWIV0?xml=/opinion/2007/07/23/do2301.xml
Meanwhile III more ‘advice’ for Cameron in the Torygraph from Janet Daley. As ever ‘plenty of advice….and no help’….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/23/do2301.xml
Mike, how much political fallout there is will depend on whether people notice that the flood defence budget was cut and due to be kept low this year despite warnings.
This could have been averted yada yada. and so on.
Against that, everybody knows that there has been a monumental amount of rain and arguably this could not have been forseen.
So it depends on which line gets more prominence.
That said I know what sort of questions are going to be asked on Wednessday.
Meanwhile IV …. Will Woodward in the “Gruntfutock” on problems following Cameron to Rwanda :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,2132504,00.html
29 Benedict. As Brown visits the floods towns, Cameron will be in Rwanda for a few days.
Unfair, but the timing of this trip is pants !!
Weve been building in flood plains for hundreds if not thousands of years. Only in the past 20 years or so have modern planning procesdures been in force to compensate for new building. The requirements for new developments are extremely tough, i’ve designed many housing and industrial schemes that all have to retain their run off on site within balancing ponds. The Environment Agency can be akin to the Gestapo in these matters. I suppose the govt may get the blame as they always do in these matters, but for Cameron to make play on it would be extremely nauseating, so he probably will!
Meanwhile V …. Christopher Adams in the “FT” on Team Cameron underestimating our Gawd :
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ae514060-388a-11dc-bca9-0000779fd2ac.html
Re 26, Peter, “Looking at those pictures of Tewkesbury Abbey. The Benedictine Monks of 1102, when construction started, had a better realisation of the flood plain than we appear to have today!”
And what did you expect when they are named after my name sake?
Re 31, JackW, “Unfair, but the timing of this trip is pants !!”
I expect he will be back and forth a bit. I certainly expect him to be at PMQ’s.
34 Are you also responsible for the exquisite liquer, Benedictine?
Re 32, Burbachris. “I suppose the govt may get the blame as they always do in these matters, but for Cameron to make play on it would be extremely nauseating, so he probably will!”
Well, this lot did cut the flood defence budget…
Meanwhile VI …. Douglas Fraser in the “Herald” on the vultures circling Jack McConnell :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1563853.0.0.php
……………
34 Benedict. The “White Monks of Tewkesbury” ??
Presumably all those arguing against building on flood plains also think that the entire west coast of North America should be evacuated as it is known to be liable to devastating earthquakes.
Re 36, Peter, I take credit for all that is good in the world whilst passing the buck for all that is back
(Perhaps I should be a Lib Dem after all
)
It appears that Will L (I presume) has used the name SBS on the previous thread at 140 writing “I’m a dirty boy. I like playing with myself.”
I have yet to see the funny side of this. Has he admitted or denied using other people’s names for postings?
Meanwhile VII …. Gerri Peev in the “Scotsman” on the problems facing Cameron :
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1145762007
Presumably Cameron misses PMQs this week - does Hague step in? Or is Brown away as well?
Cameron away from his post with Brown there, wont look very good will it?
Re 39, Innocent “Presumably all those arguing against building on flood plains also think that the entire west coast of North America should be evacuated as it is known to be liable to devastating earthquakes.”
Well, I certainly wouldn’t live there, but then living onhigh ground I am also alright as far as flodding is concerned.
The Benedictines were not Whitte Monks. Those were the Cistercians, whosee habit was undied as a gesture of humility. The Cistercians also diod not wear undergarments - in modern parlance they went “commando”
The Benedictines were not White Monks. Those were the Cistercians, whosee habit was undied as a gesture of humility. The Cistercians also diod not wear undergarments - in modern parlance they went “commando”
The Benedictines were not White Monks. Those were the Cistercians, whosee habit was undied as a gesture of humility. The Cistercians also did not wear undergarments - in modern parlance they went “commando”
I am staggered at the incompetence of the agency that gets 2 days warning of a major downpour then sees its truck with flood barriers stuck two days later on the day of the rain.
What sort of people run this agency? They could not organise a P up in a brewery. The lady (Baroness?) heading up this agency then appears on tv saying “even if we had deployed the barriers they would have been too small”.
I have been in 3rd world countries who manage to deploy their emergency measures within 24 hours of a warning.
Yesterday lunchtime there was a tv broadcast from Oxford where the backdrop was of a river level near the top of the bank and talk of a peaking in the river level in 12 hours time. Yet there were no flood barriers and not even one sand bag in sight in the doorways of the houses that were about 20 feet from the river.
The British have an amazing tolerance of govt incompetence.
[44] High ground (I’m in a second floor flat, come to that) is no defence against flodding, Benny
Re 43, Icarus, “Cameron away from his post with Brown there, wont look very good will it?”
No it wouldn’t. We will have to see what happens.
Was it all a dream?
All those environmentalists and water board executives on TV saying things like “we are just going to have to get used to the fact the Climate Change will mean that water is an increasingly precious and rare commodity…”
Was that a long time in the distant past? Oh no it was last summer.
” But is today’s trip to Rwanda to focus on global poverty a wise move when there are so many problems at home? ”
At the end of the day, the Conservatives are the opposition, it is Labour and Brown’s job to sort out the flood crisis.
If Cameron had seen people drowning in front of his eyes in Oxfordshire yesterday, I’m sure he would have stayed, otherwise he’s away for two days…
I’m sure the country will cope while he is away highlighting very important issues in Africa (and helping his party actually doing positive things, bot just PR) - something that Brown cannot and will not attack as it is also one of his priorities also…
He’ll only get critisism from people (in his own party) who want an excuse to have a pop at the man… ” Swaning off to help the third world ” rather than lurching to the right with some good old tub thumping Thatcherism.
Anyone else - Labour / Lib Dems will be just attacking for the sake of attacking - whatever the issue.
My prediction is that he will fight back over the coming days and weeks. The polls will show an increase of a couple of percentage at the expense of Labour. Hopefully the MP’s calling for a leadership contest can be weeded out and dealt with.
Matt.
Consider 42 conservatives in Ruanda for two weeks pushing wheelbarrows and digging ditches. I’m sure no-one would argue that the manual labour of these 42 isn’t useful but excludind any ‘green issues’ in 42 flights to Ruanda what about the cost?
Let’s imagine £1500 per person. For £60,000 think of the number of Ruandans that could have been employed. The PR value could have been achieved just as well by Cameron or another senior Conservative presenting a check to whatever charity is running this scheme. They could then have done their speech to the Ruandan parliament and all would have been well.
As it is it just looks like another hairbrained PR stunt which is almost offensive to the bit players who are the long suffering Ruandans.
To be successful in politics as in everything else you need to be lucky.
I live in Cheltenham & it is as bad as depicted
What worries me is that the loss of one water plant means a third of a million people without water.
The thought that we might eventually get some competent terrorists in the UK to exploit these vulnerabilities does not bear thinking about.
Re 49, Innocent, “High ground (I’m in a second floor flat, come to that) is no defence against flodding,”
If my house is flooded, then London, the South coast and just about every population center in the UK is under at least 100 feet of water.
Re post 140 on the last thread. This is not acceptable and I am seeking to identify the person responsible - who will be banned for a week
53. Arguably in the long term they will bring in more investment by highlighting this issue and returning to the UK to promote RWanda. so don’t really accept your line of argument. I also love your Labour way of dealing with anything which is look at an issue and just throw money at it without investigating the area in any depth.
This article in today’s Times lists when the Environment Agency was warned and some insights into this “Dad’s Army” unit.
“Shortly before 6am last Monday forecasters at the Met Office’s Exeter headquarters e-mailed the Environment Agency with the first warning that “a serious weather event” was likely to hit England on Friday.”
“By Wednesday morning the forecasters had narrowed down the expected location to the M4/M5 corridor in Gloucestershire and Worcestershire.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2120927.ece
“At Worcester, the Environment Agency decided that staff were best deployed checking river defences that would save thousands of households rather than spending hours assembling temporary defences which they believed would, at best, have protected some industrial premises and a handful of houses. In any event, the Environment Agency argued, the expected rainfall was so high that the defence systems would have broken up, leaving the metal poles and sheets that form the barricades to be swept by the current down the streets.
Even when it was decided to erect the emergency barriers it was too late. The barricades for Upton-on-Severn were stored 25 miles away in Kidderminster. The material was loaded on to a lorry and dispatched, only to be caught in the 10,000 vehicles trapped by floods on the M5 on Friday night. “
45-47 Peter G. I was lamely talking of the Benedict “White” monks of Tewkesbury !
I’m fed up of people saying that Africa us not important, a trip to Rwanda, especially one that creates tangible benefits for Rwandans is to be applauded by everyone. Why would anyone not, apart from for their own selfishness?
Yes, this is bad for Brown, he has been jointly responsible for the errors that have led to this, he is the one who should be here and facing the music.
140 - thanks Mike. I’m not that bothered as it was a silly message, but this sort of thing could be used to misrepresent an individual’s own views in a bogus post.
The 42 Conservatives in Rwanda aren’t there because of climate change silly - They wont find any polar bears in Africa will they!!!
61 - more importantly he used Punter’s name to launch an attack the night of the by-election thread. He’s impersonated me numerous times, but am not bothered as they were clearly spoofs. We all know who it is.
56 - The same person has impersonated many people including pounter and has used multiple user names as sockpuppets. They have insulted numerous posters and, their writing style being idiosyncratic, have made this blatantly obvious.
They shouldn’t just be banned for a week they should be banned permanently and (for good measure) ridiculed in public by publishing their name and details.
Does anyone disagree?
Was he also responsible for the “story” that two Lib Dems had been arrested for postal vote fraud in ES? It appeared mid-afternoon on the hursday of the election. Rumours are inevitable in any contest, but this looked like a deliberate attempt to rig the market.
56 Mike
Why don’t you just ask him to stop being silly? The site’s big enough to cope with the occasional silly kid.
53 - Read the updates on the Rwandan trip roger, it is a PR stunt only in your own mind, there are doctors for a start treating over 500 people a day. Do you know how few doctors there are in Rwanda? Rwad the Indy article and see the response of the Rwandans also.
In your champagne socialist world it’s enough to give cheques to ameliorate your guilt. In the real world that is not enough.
Re 67, UKPaul, “In your champagne socialist world it’s enough to give cheques to ameliorate your guilt. In the real world that is not enough.”
What is more, if you go there you get a better idea of what is going on.
60. Your hatred for Brown is well known but to blame him for Ruanda is stretching the elastic of even your credibilty!
(Or maybe you were blaming him for the rain?)
12/14 - I am reminded of an argument made by a disgruntled constituent in a letter which a friend of mine had to respond to. The lady demanded that her MP acknowledge that people from the Third World tripled their carbon emissions when they came to the UK, and so were the main cause of global warming.
All these foreigners stealing our jobs, flooding our towns, and melting our ice caps…
53 - Whether or not it’s a PR stunt, £60,000 is very soon spent, but potentially the awareness-raising impact of those Tories going over there can be more significant. You’re being unfair.
69 - For the cuts in funds which, if they hadn’t happened, would have helped to lessen the effects of the floods.
Meanwhile VIII …. an across the pond view from the “Wall Street Journal” of the first weeks of the “Un-Blair” period :
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110010367
……………………
64 Ukpaul. You are getting authoritarian in your dotage.
A weeks ban and a final warning seems appropriate. Let’s not get all NuLabour about this individual.
Is there any racing at Newmarket today?
I would imagine that GB is delighted that the floods have hit the headlines and temporarily taken the focus away from the emerging London Underground Metronet scandal.
This was Brown’s pet project despite being warned that it was unworkable,the taxpayer has now been landed with a £ 4.6 billion bill.
73. Can’t we get Neo-con on him and send him to Guantanamo via Libya?
Re 73, JackW “A weeks ban and a final warning seems appropriate. Let’s not get all NuLabour about this individual.”
ONG - You simply cannot build redundancy into the utility network as you imply.
29 - Benedict, I laughed at the Observer article about the warnings made a few months ago. The idea that the sewer network and flood defences could have been sufficiently improved in a matter of months is ludicrous. Although wrong, any recent cuts would likely have had little practical impact.
That said, the messsage from the climate impacts reports has been for several years that, whilst summers would get drier on average, when it did rain, the rain would be heavier than normal. So the flood and drought risk would both increase.
Benedict, you may remember the events of September 2000 in Sussex, which was the wettest month on record. This has been known about for many years now.
73 - I’d settle for the Saudi justice system that allows him to pay me blood money, but he otherwise gets away with it.
On the floods - dreadful things going on. There are immediate issues of livelihoods ruined, lack of water, power, also disease. Long term there are issues of global warming, sustainable development (away from flood plains), insurability…
Tis unfortunate timing for Mr Cameron. I don’t think that any politician should make capital out of this disaster. But Cameron being away, while Brown visits the sites of disaster… what can I say?
73 - In the case of Will L (and friends) I consider it our duty to run him out of town. It’s more like getting up a wild west posse, individual justice for everyone!
74 Nope. But I understand there is swimming at Lambourn.
73. interesting article - but what I found most revealing were the final paragraphs - I think the UK public has a pretty robust attitude to terrorism - its dreadful, but the Number 13 bus is still statistically a greater threat to my life (let alone guns in the US…) and I don’t recall calling the IRA ‘Christian’ terrorists - oh, but that’s right…they weren’t even ‘terrorists’ in the US…
Pimpernel - way back up there somewhere. Although Nick said “on one hand” and so on he is clearly in favour of the barrage and described the protesters as Nimbys - if not the usual sort
Re 81 Peter, was there supposed to be? (racing at Newmarket)
Only according to BBC radi 4’s Today program, there should have been.
Re 79, SBS, “Tis unfortunate timing for Mr Cameron. I don’t think that any politician should make capital out of this disaster. But Cameron being away, while Brown visits the sites of disaster… what can I say?”
Well, Cameron has already visited some areas in his constituency.
As for making political capital out of it, well, the flood defence budget has been cut, I think questions need to be asked.
73. Will L. Hang him!
86 - Too good for ‘im
67. But Paul the cheque-giving parties are oh so nice, the champagne, the hors d’ouvere…it makes the whole horrible living with malnutrition & disease and conflict thing seem that bit more far away…yet oh yet, we are doing something….as long as its sterilised.
71. He’s been further up the news reporting agenda today than I’ve seen him for a bit. I’ll give them that but when it comes to the rough and tumble of British domestic politics it’s worth nothing.
I notice the Metro paper has mentioned the European angle. I have no idea about this fund but it is clear that practical resources are missing in taking on these floods. I asked twice yesterday why the government hadn’t asked our European friends for help and from what i could see no-one ventured an answer.
I suppose asking for some helicopters and crews for example might give away the fact that the military don’t have enough.
I just hope the Conservative strategists read The Super Soarway Sun this morning. Kavanagh’s piece is on the mark yet again, the Tories are their own worst enemy. Their editorial comment at the weekend telling Cameron to wise up, stop the gimmicks and get some policies & some substance was worth reading as well, brief but well effective. It really is that simple lads.
85 - I saw Cameron on TV yesterday. He came across very well and was certainly doing it wearing his “constituency MP” hat rather than his “aren’t the government crap” hat. Full marks!
Three things:
1. Will L is making this place like Lord of the Flies, soon we’ll be prodding him with sticks.
2. According to BBC most Britons are happy to own fake designed goods, but 80% wouldn’t be if the proceeds aided terrorism - so in other words 20% of Sex in the City wannabes are help Al Quaeda as long as they can have a cheap Louis Voitton (sp?) handbag!
3. I see Newsnight are in hot soup for misrepresenting the results of some poll. A girl I know very well from my sordid past is one of the producers there, wonder if she was responsible?
84 Not according to my programme, Benny.
I think they’re still OK at Newmarket but I understand some of the stables at Lambourn have had to be evacuated.
71. I rather agree with you about the £60,000. Nontheless this initiative is a political initiative otherwise it wouldn’t be described as “42 Conservatives for Rwanda” and the effects have to be seen in that context. It is a PR excecise for the Conservative Party. That it will do some good on the ground is a given. Even the crassest of PR stunts won’t succed unless they look good.
The irony is that as a PR stunt it’s a failure.
If this was a first initiative by Cameron I’m sure it would be applauded. But he has been round the world several times to publicize climate change. 42 Tory MP’s and Councillors digging ditches in Rwanda when for the first time people are actually seeing climate change with their own eyes at home (or so they believe) makes the PR effect both here and for Rwanda a negative. If an ad agency were behind this they’d be fired.
92 - “It is a PR excecise for the Conservative Party. That it will do some good on the ground is a given. Even the crassest of PR stunts won’t succed unless they look good. The irony is that as a PR stunt it’s a failure.”
If you think that, why are you complaining so bitterly about it? Surely your attitude should be “more fool them”.
91 Look on the bright side, I understand that they are going to introduce national Hunt Water Polo at Newbury.
Is Brown ever going to modulate his voice? Just listening to the press conference and he hasn’t changed his delivery in over ten minutes - same pitch, same tempo, same timbre. Is he trying to send us all to sleep? ‘You are feeling sleepy, when you wake up you will remember nothing from the last ten years…’, where’s Rory Bremner when you need him?
On topic : I wonder if the floods will add to a general feeling of mailase. If the weather doesnt improve soon then summer will be over without any sunshine. People wont feel refreshed, the high street will have had a poor season, house hold insurance premiums will rise, interest rates are going up etc etc.
Wont cause the govt to collapes but the “feelgood” factor will not be there - can’t be good for the incumbent govt.
95 - yes I noticed that. He tends to be very wordy as well. Doesn’t seem to have done John Howard any harm though.
96. What happens when people can’t get flood protection for their homes.
95 ukpaul. It’s deliberate. The smooth, calming, dull, re-assuring headmaster tone. The antithesis of the Blair “Diana” years.
“67. But Paul the cheque-giving parties are oh so nice, the champagne”
My girlfriend at the time used to work for ‘Shelter’ and their ad agency organized a dinner on the Thames for a load of weathy celebs much to the disgust of the ‘Shelter’ workers who believed it sent out the wrong message.
There were threats of resignation and so on but the Director won the day and the £500 per person dinner took place. The first speech of the evening was by one of the Shelter workers who proposed a toast:
“To the homeless. Without which none of this would have been possible”.
94 - waterpolo was a national sport of the former Yugoslavia. Popularising it here would do the Union no good, but may excite francis.
99 - It’s like a hypnotist at work, I find it quite unnerving. I had to stop myself from losing consciousness.
98. They take a risk or sell up. House prices in flood plains take a dip ?
I guess floods could stimulate the economy - massive spending at b&q or Comet on insurance claims or credit cards for replacement goods. Further increasing the nations debt - cant be good. Increasing premiums will push up inflation - or has GB tactfully taken them out of the CPI ? I guess floods could also increase food prices if crops are destroyed.
101 Yes, SBS, but in Yugoslavia they don’t use real horses.
97. Stonch, it’s looking like it’s starting to hurt him now. Consider this article on John Howard’s no-show on FM radio:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22107158-11949,00.html
(To translate, the Sydney radio station mentioned in the story is like a cross between Radio 1 and Capital FM)
PS: A contact from the ministerial wing of Parliament House tells me the Lib-Nat Coalition is up one point to 45% on the 2PP in tomorrow’s Newspoll (i.e. margin of error). I’ll confirm later.
UK Paul. If I understood it right you’re a fellow Man C supporter. All we need now is another top class striker, left and right wide men with real pace and skill, a really good play maker, a left back strong in defence who can also get forward, a quick, powerful left footed centre back and another goalkeeper. Not too much to ask is it?!
92. Roger, if you actually read some of the coverage from say Iain Dale’s diary about the trip you realise the importance of this trip. These are some key opinion formers in the country seeing what happens when people who can maje a difference don’t make tough decisions. That a lot of MPs will return with a keen idea of problems facing Africa, Rwanda in particular and a sense of responsibility not to let massacre and genocide on that scale happen again then I think that might be a good thing.
OT. The 7/4 Hills are offering in the GB specials category for him to Announce Complete Withdrawal Of Troops From Iraq first now looks good value IMO, especially if like me you’re sitting on the earlier 10/1 for a By-election loss and are already well in profit for an 07 or 08 election.
I would expect something might be announced round about Sep following the Gen Petraeus report to congress which will clarify the US position.
105 Are there any value bets in Govt ministers going down. I.e if the Coalition get a real tanking, who’s favourite to have the Aussie “Portillo Moment”
Re 108, Caveman, it depends on what counst as a complete withdrawal as I expect there to be a residual force there for some time to come.
But Cameron says he is going to increase overseas aid - fine. But is he going to be honest about the need to increase taxes to pay for it? Or will he mumble and stumble when asked how he is going to pay for it?
Clearly off topic but - is it just me and my pals who are finding Victoria Beckham more attractive recently? Never rated her in the past but, ta-dow, she seems to be doing something right these days
106 - Since we managed to get out of the second division (what used to be the very old third division) anything else is a bonus in my opinion!
It’s amazing that we talk of the “Portillo moment” but not the “Rifkind moment”, considering the latter was actually Foreign Sec!
Re 114, Stonch “It’s amazing that we talk of the “Portillo moment” but not the “Rifkind moment”, considering the latter was actually Foreign Sec!”
No it isn’t, Rifkind was liked.
112. Mate you are just getting older. I used to find davina mccall fairly plain but as i have got older I find my standards slipping….and i look at her in a different light!
VB is so skinny it scares me…..it would just be wrong!
110. The phrase says “Announce Complete Withdrawal”. Therefore this should cover a situation where he announces a complete withdrawal timetable by 2010 (say) when the last residual force is expected to leave. Only my opinion of course.
112 and some evidence - http://justjared.buzznet.com/2007/07/19/victoria-beckham-leg-lumps/
118 - ah you’re putting me off her
114, 115 - no Rifkind was known to be in a marginal. Portillo losing was a shock. When they repeated the election night broadcast, Dimbleby said “Of course we’re not suggesting for one moment that Portillo may lose his seat…”
Other Cabinet casualties - Ian Lang, Roger Freeman, Michael Forsythe, there must have been two others…
See here - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/6911340.stm
Nice to see the Highland Clearances getting some recognition, but a shame it’s all so concentrated on the North American angle. Most of the migrants driven off the land went to the lowlands or to other parts of Britain. My own ancestors opted for Tyneside eventually, leaving me with this bloody accent instead of the Scots lilt that would make me bloody irresitable to women.
95:
Quite agree. Surely Brown is the most boring PM in modern times - John Major seemed sparkling in comparison.
114. Rifkind never said “Who Dares wins. WE DARE WE WILL WIN!!” at a party conference.
PS It surely isn’t true that Peter Lilley is in charge of this trip to Rwanda?
re117, Caveman, fair enough, though I doubt he wiould put a final date on it for military reasons, but then there would be more money for the war if he listened to the military, so maybe you are right.
120 - yes I suppose there was that. Seeing Rifkind lose again in 2001 was very sad. Seeing his stillborn leadership effort in 2005 even sadder.
119. Although She was my favourite spice girl when wannabe came out….but as the years have moved on baby spice took her place in my affections.
Jeez - its like the teen angst forum sponsored by Kleenex in here today
111- Icarus- increasing 3rd world aid, marriage tax alliances, increasing the number of prison places, more cash to the army, stopping hospital closures…all to be paid by hmmmmm
ukPaul & Robisticus- Brown is very boring, and…
I mean if you want to be entertained go to Blackpool pleasure beech.
Was there a similar rejoicing in the streets and/or a wailing and gnashing of teeth when George Brown, the Foreign Secretary in Wilson’s government, lost Belper in 1970?
127. Thats so unfair http://www.bbc.co.uk/northamptonshire/features/2003/talking_teenagers/images/kevin_teenager_270.jpg
115- benedit -I liked Rifkind- he did well to hang onto Edinburgh Pentlands in 1992 from memory, so the loss in 1997 was no great shock. Still like him
I also like Portillo now, but loathed him in the Thatcher period.
Politicians always become much more agreeable when they are no longer constrained, and speak their own minds.
129 - when I was at primary school, I remember the buzz among teachers when Shirley Williams (then S of S for Education) lost her seat in 1979. My class teacher kept sending me off with notes for other teachers about it.
131 The thing I really liked about Rifkind was his voice. He had a beautifully modulated speaking voice, with clear but not forced diction, and a wondeful “Educated Edinburgh” accent. He seems to have lost it a bit recently - I am not sure if that is age catching up with him, or having to slum it with the Esturine Mockneys of the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea.
Probably the latter.
Yes these Cameron’s Conservatives Policy Groups will all come up with some good things to spend money on. So far we have had two the first, at least, suggested a tax of 7p on beer to pay for what it wanted to do. It will be interesting if the other groups propose specific tax increases to finance their wish lists! Tax, tax, tax, is becoming the Tory theme.
Interesting to compare Ming and Dave - Ming is getting a clear, detailed and attractive policy and has sorted out the Lib Dem organisation.
Dave couldn’t run the proverbial whelk stall, his appointments are seriously odd, no one knows if his policies actually are policies yet, and he is proving crap even at PR which is what he is supposed to be good at.
BTW, I see Dave’s trip to Rwanda is only for 2 days - he will be able to help a lot in 2 days. Whats the betting his plane is late getting back and he misses PMQ’s after all!
re 10. Just before I left Cambridge they built an estate of “executive homes” at some ridiculous prices on the river near Elizabeth Way. I was overjoyed that just as the show home opened the entire estate was flooded. If they will build in such an utterly stupid place.
121 Yes, but you really want to be trying to make a living on about 5 acres in the Highlands?
Augustus - You are Nuala and I claim my £5.
136 Any views on the ructions on the weekend. Given your oft announced suspicion of your Dear Leader we can only assume your silence signifies approval of the Letter Writers……..
106 Blue Moon- I say bring back David White, or the mighty Rocastle.
And yes ukPaul is another of the long suffering brigade here on pbCOM.
Being a City fan gives me some empathy with the travails of the Tory party- lots of false dawns, glimpses of the bygone times when we were a force, but ultimately doomed to perpetual dismal failure.
At least with City the fans are loyal, which is a damn site more than those pesky Tory MP’s!!!
17. Good to see the Sun still banging the EU tambourine, like a nutty woman from the Sally Army, standing in the rain outside a pub.
We may laugh at her now, but this will be an issue - a momentous issue - in several months. It hasn’t gone away.
On this one matter the Brown bounce could collapse - because virtually all the papers will briskly shift behind Cameron, the only leader proposing a referendum, whereas Brown wants to nakedly renege on his election promise and flush Britain down a Brussels p1ssoir. So much for the new integrity.
Can Brown win an election without any Murdoch, Associated, Express or Telegraph newspapers?
Maybe. Maybe not.
I’d be surprised if Steve Hilton isn’t the next sacrificial lamb and possibly deservedly so. He’s a very fine PR man and it’s not really his fault that all his schemes are taken up by the leadership. After all he’s not a politician but a £275,000 a year PR man. But a quick glance at ConHome and it’s obvious that his card is marked
Sorry to interrupt the love in with Rifkind but he was totally and disgracefully wrong over Bosnia. A huge moral black mark against him IMHO.
109 - Actually, Howard himself is extremely vulnerable - his once safe seat in Sydney has become progressively marginal and the recent boundary changes have made his hold even more tenuous.
Also on a knife-edge is Malcolm Turnbull, Minister for Environment, who is best known here as the lawyer who made a mockery of the attempts to prevent publication of Spycatcher’ back in the 1980s.
(I learnt quite a bit during my recent Imperial Foray: EMUs are solidly coalition, koalas strongly Labor, and the one cassowary we encountered fluffy green)
Excellent job by Vaizey on the Daily Politics.
121- “Nice to see the Highland Clearances getting some recognition, but a shame it’s all so concentrated on the North American angle”
The harsh truth is the diaspora tended to lose its sense of Scottish identity much more swiftly if they moved to other parts of the UK than if they moved to North America etc. So, even though there are undoubtedly many people in England who are there as a result of the Clearances, their ‘folk memory’ of being such is practically non-existent (you are something of a rarity I think!).
Also, appealing to North American etc diaspora makes economic sense as shown by the efforts the Irish government puts into this area.
109 & 143 The prices on the Bennelong seat are interesting. They’ve been between 3.5 and 4 for a while now but I note that once the £210 at 3.45 goes, it’s a long drop down to the next price - 2.8. Maybe it’s worth a small buy.
137-Icarus- is Augustus Carp Nuala? Have we flushed out the Nuala fox by the tempting bait of talking pleasantly about Rifkind?
143 John O. And the Tasmanian Tigers vote UKIP !!
145 Stephen B. SOD’s Rule OK
Scottish Overseas Diaspora.
53 Roger “Let’s imagine £1500 per person. For £60,000 think of the number of Ruandans that could have been employed. ”
And so all those DFID admin staff based overseas costing say £150,000 pa a head to keep there should be brought home?
And lets not get into the cost of DFID consultancies that cost tens of millions every year whose main achievement is the cutting down forests of trees to provide paper to print the report: reports that for the most part have failed to add any real lasting value to the development of the country concerned.
149. I have a friend who has worked around the world with a range of NGOs and GOs like DFID - which he reckoned was among the best of the bunch. Not without sin - but a lot better than most of the others.
Meanwhile IX …. Kevin Rennie of the US Courant.com on why McCain’s time has passed :
http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/columnists/hc-rennie0722.artjul22,0,6527548,full.column
135 People tend to forget why old streets have names like Flood Street, and Water Lane. Our ancestors were admirably blunt when it came to street naming (Grape Street in London, for example, was originally Grope-C**t Street, which left one in no doubt about the principal occupation of its inhabitants).
152. Inland Revenue offices ?
Totally off-topic, but is anyone offering a market on the Japanese Upper House elections on Sunday?
Quite an interesting case - a serious electoral test for Ichiro Ozawa, the right-wing politicial leader who:
1) pulled his right-wing faction out of the Liberal Democratic Party and brought down a government that had been ruling for 38 years.
2) promptly brought down the left-wing coalition that replaced it.
3) went back into coalition with the Liberal Democrats, then pulled out of that, causing the Prime Minister to have a heart attack and die.
4) took over leadership of the opposition Democratic Party, and is now single-mindedly trying to bring down the government.
109, 143, 146.
Yes I think Malcolm Turnbull is an interesting proposition in Wentworth. Visitors to Sydney might be familiar with the eastern suburbs of Sydney - everything through from the downtown area (CBD) to Bondi Beach.
The larger Wentworth grows, the further it drifts from its true-blue Liberal base, and absorbs areas with strong Labor booths. Turnbull has got to be in trouble if the swing is on.
Bennelong is also an interesting proposition. Of the 20 most racially diverse seats in Australia, all but one - Bennelong - are held by Labor. Bennelong is now a “John Howard” seat, not a Liberal seat. Howard’s opponent is Maxine McKew - our version of your Kirsty Wark.
If you’re looking for a “Portillo moment”, I suggest Turnbull because of his profile, but the difference is that Enfield Southgate was a lot safer going in to the 1997 UK GE than Wentworth in the 2007 Australian election.
There are plenty of ministers and parly secs with marginal seats, but if you define a “Portillo moment” as when a big beast loses a previously safe seat in amazing circumstances, then I think if the swing is really, really on, my local member (and cabinet minister), Joe Hockey might be vulnerable in North Sydney.
117. Depends on how the bookies wish to cut that one. It is suggested that training teams could be there for years upon years.
If the bookies can carify that it means operational combat troops it might be worth a bash.
154. Ain’t seen one myself