Was the Rwanda trip a big mistake for Cameron?
July 24th, 2007
And ICM looks like another 6-7% Labour lead
With the flooding story continuing to dominate the news the Guardian has postponed publication of its ICM survey for July which was carried out over the weekend in the immediate aftermath of Thursday’s by elections. So we don’t know the precise figures but Michael Crick on Newsnight last night suggested it was in the same region as the last ICM poll a week and a half ago which had Labour 7% ahead.
If this is correct it’s probably quite good news for the Tories who might have been expecting something worse given what was being reported during the three days when the poll was being carried out.
So it appears that there’s been no by election bounce on top of the ongoing Brown bounce.
The Mail, meanwhile, turns its formidable guns on David Cameron for going ahead with his trip to Rwanda with the memorable headline “So where’s the member for washed out Witney?”.
It reports that Cameron is handling the criticism robustly and will say in a speech that will not be welcome in all parts of his party“…there are some people in Britain who told me not to come. They said I should stay at home and worry about domestic concerns. Well let me tell them - and let me tell you - that in the 21st century, a century of global trade, global migration, and yes, global terrorism, there is no “domestic” and “foreign” any more. In this world today, we are all in it together. “The rich cannot escape the consequences of poverty and instability. What happens in one place affects many others.”
Clearly this was a very hard call for the Tory leader although there is one compensatory feature - at least he’s back on the front pages after two months of saturation Brown coverage.
Another factor that should provide some relief to Cameron is that Sunday’s story about Tory MPs making written request for a confidence vote on their leader appears to have run out of steam. Moves like this require momentum and there’s been nothing more. In fact the coverage seems to have prompted a display of unity within the party.
Whatever misgivings there might be about Cameron’s leadership there seems to be no stomach at the moment for rocking the boat.
I had been expecting several major polls this week. One that isn’t going to happen until next week is the monthly Communicate Research survey for the Independent. I am also told that the Times is bringing forward its August poll and fieldwork for that will also take place over the weekend. Those two could be very interesting.
Mike Smithson
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They say there’s no such thing as bad publicity and I do generally agree with your theory, Mike, that the more Cameron is in the news the better things are for the Tories but this time I’m not so sure this is one of those times.
Brown doesn’t look that great touring the sites in his very understated way but by compared to Camerons trip abroad he looks a lot more impressive. Even as a very strong Cameron supporting Conservative I’m starting to think the style vs substance argument has some merit.
I do not agree. Sticking to his guns against the right is what is needed from DC now. He went to Witney and the floods first, for three days. After that he kept the commitment to Rwanda.
Despite the Mail, their readers will vote Tory anyway. The humanitarian aspect of this impressed Stonch. It is people like him DC needs to reach to win a GE.
ConHome is calling for “authenticity” from DC. He passionately believes in humanitarian work and social justice. The Rwandan trip has been planned for months and he was right to go - AFTER, of course, he went to flood victims in Witney, which he did first.
Scott you may be interested to see how the Times slams Brown in a double page article for hovering over the flooded areas and not - unlike DC - going into them and meeting the people.
It’s the govt who will be on the hook for this as fallout continues. DC needed to stick firmly to what he believes in. going to Rwanda was a sign of rejecting PR advice and doing the right thing. He did it after Witney. Good call.
Times article:
“If homeowners in some of the worst-hit areas of Worcestershire and Gloucestershire had looked skywards at around breakfast time yesterday, they may have seen the helicopter containing the Prime Minister.
At 7.15am Gordon Brown took an airborne tour of the brown patchwork of towns and villages before visiting the police co-ordination centre. It was as close as he got to the misery faced by thousands of people after the swollen rivers Severn and Avon laid waste to much of the two counties.
In Upton upon Severn, the small Worcestershire town into which all four roads are cut off by fast-moving waters, residents felt that his trip was simply a public relations exercise.
Karl Hooton, 40, who helped in the rescues over the weekend, said: “He should have got out into the streets and visited the people who are suffering. He should have asked them what they wanted and needed. He can look down at the water from on high, but he doesn’t know how deep it is or how fast flowing it is. He can’t see what’s happening to people’s homes.”
Richard Myers, 51, a member of the Mercia Inshore Search and Rescue, said: “He really should have visited us. He could have landed here with ease. A helicopter landed at the school yesterday to deliver medical supplies.”
Rodney Miles, 56, added: “It would have been good of him to talk to those who have been involved in the rescue out in the water, or residents who have been affected.””
Guardian headline:
Ministers warned three years ago over flood defence failings
http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/Story/0,,2133329,00.html
It really is rotten luck for DC. This trip must have been planned long in advance and should have given him some helpful publicity at a crucial time. Instead it’s made him a soft target.
He’s right to stick to his guns. He couldn’t and shouldn’t have cancelled. The people of Witney will manage without him for a bit.
Bit ironic really. A man who is criticised for being all style and no substance gets flak for doing something of substance which turned out to be a bit of a PR disaster.
Life’s a bitch sometimes.
4. PtP, from yesterday’s thread, here’s the site it was looking for on Aust seats. Loving the interactive side to the site. Also it gives you a sense of where the seats are in most states.
The seats that will decide the 2007 are on the edges of our capital cities, with lots of first-home buyers, young families, and disproportionately Anglo (particularly outside NSW and Victoria). These are also the seats where the “Ten Pound Poms” of the 50s, 60s, and 70s came to, and where their children also live.
These are the seats that gave Howard his majority in 1996.
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com.au/
It was a mistake and you have to wonder if he even reads the papers. Did he not realise the floods were a big story?
How can he now possibly attack the government for either its response to or preparation for the floods?
It’s not even as if his Rwandan work will get much coverage: just a picture of Dave in blazing sunshine, amongst a contrasting montage of scenes from underwater Britain.
6 Thanks Alexander. I’ll have a good look at that site anon. (Only reason I’m up at this unearthly hour is work and I’d better get on with it.)
At a quick glance, I noticed the weight of money seems to be heavily in favor of Labour, but the bookies margins seem huge compared with Betfair. You have (if I read it right) L 1.69, Coalition 2.15 - Betfair has 1.76 & 2.28 - quite a difference!
As they say, a week is a long time in politics: Only last week, Saint Grant and the Tory answer to Chris Rennard, now according to the Telegraph Grant Shapps stripped of his role of by-election supremo.
Did anyone notice DC using his News at Ten soundbite to say that people had a right to be worry about “immigration, flooding, climate change and poverty, none of which can be dealt with without engaging with Africa”. The quote is from memory but ‘immigration’ was definitely at the top of his list of things that people have a right to be worried about. Sound’s like he’s listening to those telling him to shore up traditional support.
According to yesterday’s Daily Telegraph the Conservative Party spent £125,000 on fighting the Ealing Southall byelction. The relevant bit of the electoral commission “Guidance for candidates and agents” - published in June 2007 is:
Spending limits
4.2 Candidates contesting UK Parliamentary by-elections are subject to a limit of £100,000 on their spending on items and services used during the regulated period in advance of an election.
I assume the DT got their figure from someone in the Conservative organisation. What will happen if they are found to have overspent?
It is noticable how both Conservatives and Labour seem to use much more expensive paper for their leaflets than the streetwise Liberal Democrats.
I think its time that this site instituted an annual award, ‘The Mogg’ named after the Blessed William Rees Mogg. ‘The Mogg’ would be awarded to the poster, who despite all of the evidence to the contrary, gives the most upbeat, optimistic, and positive spin on any situation, which shows the party, (party leader) that they support in a negative light.
DC is now being referred to as the Rt. Hon. Member for Rwanda Central, need I say more.
I would point out to test, that if his/her assesment of DC’s Rwanda trip, is as good has his/her assesment of the Tory performance in Ealing Southall, DC is in more trouble than I thought.
[12] I wonder whether there shouldn’t be a betting market on which happens first:
- this site becomes known to lobby hacks and other assorted low life as “politicalspinning.com” or
- some bright spark parlays their contributions here into a job with one of the Party HQs…
More seriously, surely the way in which Brown deals with the worst civil emergency this country has ever had to endure will make or break his Premiership.
So far at PMQs Cameron has sounded confident and assured. The big test is this week - he will be tired - the BA flight from Kenya gets in at 6 am. Gordon will be able to “congratulate”(ie patronise) him on his work in Rwanda then remind him about the byelections.
Later on Wednesday there is a meeting of Conservative backbenchers. A less than completely successful PMQs could make things very difficult for him.
Have I got this right?
DC does three days in the floods - actually in them in his wellies in his flooded constituency, and then sticks to a pre-arranged trip to Rwanda to work on and highlight issues of global poverty and connectedness.
Brown meanwhile, slashed flood defence funding, “does” the floods from an ambulance control room and a helicopter at 2000 feet and doesn’t even chair COBRA despite only being next door. Milliband does it and briefs GB afterwards (thought PM chaired COBRA unless overseas), whilst hundreds of thousands of people face a week or more with no power or water.
And the Mail and heavily partisan creatures on here are criticising DC as leader of the opposition for what he hasn’t done?
Would have thought Brown was the soft target, considering what he has done.
The letters in reply to Ress-Moggs article are hilarious.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article2120680.ece
13 - “the worst civil emergency this country has ever had to endure”
have you been watching too much 24 hour news channel? I’d have thought the huge floods of the 1950s were much worse. I mean no-one has actually even died this time.
17 I think ther ehave been some deaths this time, but only a handful. You are right though, that 1957 was (at this point) worse.
But folk seemed better able to cope with adversity then - and no one moaned about whether they were insured in those days.
Cameron is a hypocrite for ratcheting up the air miles while his constituency is under water with people evacuated.
Brown is a hypocrite but doesn’t care about the South.
One Labour MP who should be worried about the effect of all this is Salter who may otherwise be spared from the fate he deserves by a disastrous Tory campaign and invisible candidate.
Maybe we can still do adversity after all…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6912473.stm
It’s a shame JackW is away for a bit - he’d find a great picture to illustrate this!
Maybe Roger can make a film out of this instead - “Two vicars, three organists, a flood and a wedding”??!!
Interesting times for those in charge of rebranding. Cameron continues with the largely achieved, and now counter-productive, decontamination of the Tory brand while Gordo is busy dumping on every policy he voted for and agreed under bliar.
The latest ‘review’ of 24 hr drinking is hilarious. The government that spent years telling us all that 24 hr drinking would reduce anti-social behaviour, problem drinking, drink related crime etc is now thinking of reviewing this policy. 7p on a pint anyone??
This gives DC a stick to beat the “NuGordo project” with this week at PMQs.
14
No worries, Ming makes everyone look relaxed and confident at PMQ’s!
My guess is Cameron agonised, but came to the decision whatever good he may do in Britain Brown would simply deny him a hearing after all as PM, he can “do” things Cameron as Opposition Leader “can’t”. But most of all he is addressing one of the chief things the pollsters have shown public worry about, does the guy have “steel” to him, by sticking to his guns and appearing unflinching in the face of criticism that is presumably what he is hoping to show
When Cameron was being interviewed in his wellies in Witney you could see my house 150 yards distant - fortunately up a hill
This story is unlucky for DC, but it does come from the Tabloid Vault of Stock Stories - the politician goes absent one.
Not that many Labour seats in flooded Severn and Thames valleys to punish GB.
Robin Wiggs @ 15 — it may be unfair since Cameron did get his feet wet in his constituency, as you say, but in going to Rwanda he has lost any political advantage since Brown can simply throw it in his face.
Furthermore, there is the risk that Cameron will look like Jim Callaghan in the “Crisis, What Crisis?” days being pictured in sunnier climes while the rest of us suffer at home.
24. Hence Brown’s obvious lack of interest.
10
‘“immigration, flooding, climate change and poverty, none of which can be dealt with without engaging with Africa”.’
Having seen Panorama last night I can well understand why voters are so concerned at Labour’s policy of open door mass immigration and its effects on many parts of the UK.
The voters are clearly looking for a party and policy to address their concerns other than the BNP
By the same token that the 98% of people unaffected by the flood don’t care enough to blame anyone for them neither do 98% care whether Cameron is in the country or not.
He is looking vulnerable but I think that is just a feature of being the leader of the wrong Party. Lib Dem and Labour supporters like leaders who want to save the world and care about ephemeral things not connected to themselves. Tories prefer their meat red!
21 - How many policies have there been complete u-turns on since Brown took over? He seems to be getting a very easy ride as if people think “oh this is a really good new government with popular policies” not the same lot who’ve been telling us the exact opposite for years.
24 I expect that DC has the retort ready prepared if Brown tries this line on Wednesday - along the lines of his record of cutting flood defence funding against advice, and then setting a “target” budget increase to 2010. Going to Rwanda was a victory of substance over PR also.
The way to tackle Brown is through his record these past 10 years.
Look out for someone asking at PMQs if Brown owns a pair of wellies.
15. I don’t think anyone’s criticised Cameron on this thread. I think it’s slightly bad for the Rt Hon Member for Wet Witney that he’s out of the country and away from his constituency when it’s flooded: let’s be honest - three days in the floods don’t matter, it was on yesterday’s evening news that he needed to be seen to be here. More significantly, the opportunity cost of an expensive, important, and long-planned policy launch being over-shadowed is enormous. But it’s not his fault.
And it’s slightly unfair to brand those raising this point ‘creatures’.
“Going to Rwanda was a victory of substance over PR” - er, yeah, right. Seeing him trying to be pally to those workers in the textile factory on Newsnight last night was cringeworthy. I thought Gordon was supposed to be the stiff, not our “friend of the people” Cammy.
29
‘How many policies have there been complete u-turns on since Brown took over?’
I would have thought that following the Metronet scandal & 4.6 billion bill for the taxpayer, Private Public Partnerships would be the next policy for a u-turn,only problem is that its Brown’s policy and not Blair’s.
‘I am sorry that I had to cancel my trip to Rwanda, it was a very hard decision to make, certainly for someone who cares so much about the dreadful problems facing the people of that country. However, as well as being Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition, I am a constituency MP, I cannot leave my constituents at this difficult time, they must have, will always have, first call on my services’ There, that should do it.
p.s. Stanley Kalms on R4, saying he’s a little concerned about where Dave and the party are going: Ah well there goes the discount at Dixons!.
Cameron’s been very unlucky with the timing here (obviously not as unlucky as those who’ve been flooded out and we need to keep some measure of proportion here), but it’s a case of doing the right thing at the wrong time. He is right to raise the problems of (certain parts of) Africa and to emphasise that trade combined with debt relief will be a lot more effective than aid-lead solutions. However, no-one’s listening to that and to the extent that anyone is watching him, it’s that he’s left the country at a time of crisis.
What no-one’s mentioned yet (so I will) is the address to the Rwandan parliament. To be offered the opportunity to speak to a country’s parliament is an honour granted rarely and to cancel - even in understandable circumstances - must at the very least seem like letting down the people whose cause he had intended to champion. In the UK, it will have little consequence, but in terms of ‘doing the right thing’, it might have swung the decision.
Still, at times of crisis, people don’t usually look to the opposition, they look to the government and the decision to cut funding for flood defences, combined with the new housing policy this week should give Cameron and others plenty of ammunition at PMQs.
32 Who dud you end up selecting in Swansea West. Wasn’t that ex MP was it
I don’t think there is anything wrong with partizan posting as long as it tries makes a case but some of the Tory cheerleaders with their swirling skirts and pom poms just sound ridiculous. Punter being a case in point
37
Talking about ridiculous posts,have you not read your own?
Completely o/t but excellent news that the Bulgarian nurses have just been released; Sarkozy’s wife played a part in obtaining their release.
37 Your case for saying that rests on what exactly
We thrashed out the merits of the trip in yesterday’s bad-tempered thread, but speaking purely politically I’m not sure DC had a good option at this point. It might, though, have been better to say, “In view of this crisis I am delaying my departure” and then go at the end of the week, by which time the worst of the floods is expected to be over. DC has a stubborn streak which is sometimes useful in politicians (to avoid the ‘washed around by events’ jibe), sometimes not.
The stakes aren’t very high at this point. Regardless of how PMQ goes (there could well be a ‘Cameron bounces back’ story as the media like to ring the changes), by next week the floods will have subsided and politicians will have scattered to the winds. (Including me, by the way - away for one week from Saturday.) I expect Labour to retain a lead into the recess and, events permitting, hold it till the conference season, after which who knows?
35
Agree,with this crisis people and the media in particular will be looking at the government’s cuts in flood defences,permission that was given to build on flood planes and the government’s new green paper which also involves building on flood planes.
David.”He is right to raise the problems of (certain parts of) Africa and to emphasise that trade combined with debt relief will be a lot more effective than aid-lead solutions”
He is not raising these problems-have you forgotten all the work of comic relief Red Nose day all the work of Geldof and Bono not to mention all the world leaders-not least Blairs government-in the past several years. What he is doing is saying that the Conservative party are also interested. To make it sound as though his work is in any way pioneering is just silly.
More on Kalms here
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6ada7a50-396a-11dc-ab48-0000779fd2ac.html
I seem to have watched quite extensive coverage of David Cameron in his Oxfordshire constituency visiting sites whch had been flooded and talking to emergency workers on Sunday on the local news possibly not picked up by the national media . I believe he returns to England tommorow - looks like the media is trying to create a story of David Cameron’s demise on fairly weak evidence.
38. Are you the same Richard who used topost her from Leek?
40. Punter. Post 23.
43. Oh, don’t be silly. Of course he’s not claiming ownership of these solutions, nor did I claim that he is doing. He’s adding his support to that policy, which is in my view right. He is, however, raising the profile of that issue - I doubt Rwanda would have been in the news this week otherwise.
42
In a country where land prices are so high, where the demand for housing has reached critical levels, its absurd to rule out flood plains, as a source of building land. The next Conservative government,(there will be one, one day) will be no different, not if it wants to remain in office. What is absurd is that so much land, is not being considered for building, the land designated as agricultural. A sure way to help farmers, certainly farm owners, is to allow them to sell surplus land for development, reducing the subsidy accordingly. How much of England is actually built on? guess, now open your eyes, its actually 10%.
36 - Yes, we picked Geraint Davies. I am very happy with this.
As for building on flood plains, well, we have been doing this for hundreds of years. As long as the new rules are adhered to, we should be OK.
48
OK then if you have to build on flood plains then you don’t at the same time cut the budget for flood protection which this government has done.
46 How exactly? Reasonable analysis that the PM as PM has the power to do something practical because he can order things. Cameron reasoned correctly I would guess that he could wade through the floodwater but GB as PM would have all the focus on him as he does now. How exactly is that Partisan. Likwise by sticking to his plans Cameron may well be hoping to show resolve to the public, that is what he may well hope. Whether in fact it is foolishness instead is of course another matter. I’m not party plitical, so I’m at a loss to see how what I thought was straightforward political analysis has been interpreted by you n such a way
48 - absolutely agree. As I posted here on Friday, aside from the flood plans, I am fed up with people selling of their back gardens for development. They have built a close of 5 houses with an access road opposite the entrance to my son’s school - it creates a real hazard. (Rik will know - he’s a local councillor in that ward.)
A mile or two away there are hundreds of fields, where I guess the farmers struggle to make ends meet. But no building is allowed there. We do need to consider building on the green belt, I’m afraid. But as Sean Fear pointed out, for any party to announce this is electoral suicide.
What was a worthy scheme to build a new school in Rwanda (although mainly to highlight how Cameroon the Tories are) has not worked even in PR terms. The headlines are not “Cameron sets out Africa Plan”, but “Cameron defends Rwanda Trip whilst Witney Floods”. This may be a mixture of bad luck and media mischief, but there you are.
OT. Can anyone explaim me how is Irish Seanad elected?
49 I’m not sure why you rate him as such a streetfighter. He managed an above average 4.4% swing against him in Croydon Central. Is he local to Swansea originally or something
I think it unlikely that the current Brown Bounce will continue in such an emphatic way for very long, but should level out to a 2-3% lead come the conference season. Of course if this is in the region of 37% Labour 35% Tory then the news is very bad for the Libs who continue to flatline under 20%.
Despite what I’ve said previously, and the fact that I still feel it is a stupid move, I’m getting the impression an October election might well be on the cards now.
52 - now, I am now expert in these matters, but if we do allow building on the green belt, with demand and supply, the cost of land for development must surely drop.
What’s the going rate now for land for housing development per acre?
By way of comparison, I understand that bare agricultural land averages about £3,500 per acre.
Punter half an apology. I read your post wrongly.
“My guess is Cameron agonised, but came to the decision whatever good he may do in Britain Brown would simply deny him a hearing after all as PM, he can “do” things Cameron as Opposition Leader “can’t”. But most of all he is addressing one of the chief things the pollsters have shown public worry about………..”
I thought you were referring to Rwanda!
57 - “now, I am now expert ” should say “now, I am NO expert”. How embarrassing!
50
It was foolish of the government to cut the amount spent on flood defences, certainly bad PR, but the amount was marginal, and it wouldn’t have done anything to prevent the present situation. On the wider question of building on land, we spend billions on supporting farmers, many of whom,(as one time chief financial adviser to the NFU Sean Rickard said, ‘Are not very good farmers and even worse businessmen) that subsidy should be phased out, giving farmers much more freedom in what they do with their land, including selling it for housing development.
It all depended on how the media decide to show this.
I’m pretty disapointed in the Daily Mail as they are spinning the trip as ‘Conservatives teaching cricket’ to the locals during the ‘Rwandan adventure’ while Oxford is ‘underwater’.
They also call it a ridiculous stunt, such is there heart felt concern for 260,000 slaughtered men, women and children.
The more I read this paper, the more I worry that they and others who ’should’ want a change of governement will make sure that Brown wins.
Basically, they are the voice of the far right of the Conservatives who want Cameron out no matter what the cost.
I remember when the mail, the Mirror etc absolutely hammered Cameron for his trip to ‘an iceberg’ to highlgiht and research global warming.
Who looks the fool now?
As others have said, those who want a lurch to the right they will be happy to lose as long as thier political ideas are the only ones the Conservative party is peddling.
Well, I’m afraid that those in the centre will equally stand firm even if it means some painful fights with members, MP’s and the media.
It’s not about policy or substance - that’s just a lazy excuse. First it was flip-flopping, now this. The media will get bored and turn on Ming or Brown soon enough, it’s just hunting season on Cameron at the moment.
We are building our manifesto, just give it time for god’s sake. Last time I looked, we wern’t running the country and therefore we should be allowed to develop what will be our vision to take the nation forward at the next election.
I think that Cameron will now make sure that, once and for all, there is a clause 4 moment to settle this. This will come when firm commitments are decided upon regarding the manifesto - conference probably.
I know where my I’ll be putting my support.
Matt.
48, 49. With proper flood-defences there’s no good reason why you shouldn’t build on flood-plains. Look at the Netherlands. I’ve also heard Benn say that the flood defence budget has doubled since 97 and that cuts must be understood in this context.
But that’s not the point. The real question, for political betters (and, in part, for politicians themselves) is not “are they doing the right thing?” but “how will this look?” It’ll be interesting to see if DC can make this count at PMQs. It would be a big mistake, in my opinion, for Cameron to go into national emergency consensus mode.
55. “He managed an above average 4.4% swing against him in Croydon Central”
London in general had an above swing compared to the rest of the country in 2005 GE.
His biggest problem is the biggest expenses thing…LD have already mentioned it immediately after his selection. Being a former MP he has “baggages” (a voting record, for ex)
Had it not been for the silly stories over the weekend about the revolt that never was, then it may have been easier for DC to can the Africa trip. However, had he done so, it would have been “Cameron cancels Africa trip in panic bid to save his job”. I think that would have been far more damaging than what he’s getting. As others have said, he spent 2 days in Witney with his constituents; what more can he do? I thought he came across well on the news last night, and he got good coverage on Sunday night’s news when he was wading through the floods (which GB hasn’t done).
By the way, the Mail’s position is all over the place. I read yesterday’s edition (not my copy, i should add…) and it had one leader piece backing Cameron (surprisingly) and a second one putting the boot into Gordon; elsewhere, a piece on how the govt was failing to cope with the floods, and a piece attacking the building of houses on flood plains (and a dig at GB), but a two-page splash later in the paper promoting some guffy new book by Brown on the ordinary heroes who “inspired him” (how very Blair-like…).
I thought Cameron looked quite butch and virile - oo-er - in his Hunter wellies striding through flooded Witney. A stark contrast to Gordon mimsying about in his helicopter, in his suit, staring down at the deluged voters. The contrast pointed up Cameron’s youth and dynamism compared to the fusty and oddly fastidious GB.
Re 10. Yup, I also noted that, “immigration” came top of Cameron’s list of public concerns. This makes sense - its the number 1 issue in people’s minds - see the polls - and the Tories should always have a lead on the issue, because Labour are incapable of not lying on this topic. There’s millions of voters waiting for a firm hand on the subject, who don’t want to vote BNP but who despair of Labour mendacity and ineptitude.
It’s perfectly possible for DC to mop up these voters while still being nice and green if he wants.
If Cameron does have to appease the right in some way, how long before we get the next defecting Tory MP?
(Now for those of you who say there is no chance, did you forsee what Quentin Davies did?)
60 - coldstone - spot on about farmers being bad at business. The idea of agricultural subsidies should be that we pay farmers to look after the countryside (pretty hedgerows etc) and look nice (and be available for leisure). Unfortunately, it does not work out that way.
I watched all the news programmes for the past few days - and I saw nothing of Cameron save his jaunt to Rwanda.
61. “They also call it a ridiculous stunt, such is there heart felt concern for 260,000 slaughtered men, women and children”
Unfortunately he has a history. His reputation for PR stunts is such that no one believes he is sincere about anything. The same happened to Blair with spin. I was saying a year ago that he was in danger from the “365 day a year sale” syndrome and predictably it’s where he now is. I’m really surprised that someone as good as Steve hilton couldn’t have seen this coming. The Labour agency who dreamt up the camelion campaign couldn’t have given him a clearer signal.
67 - to be fair he was trudging through a watering street in Oxfordshire and this was on TV. He seemed to be wearing his good constituency MP hat, rather than his leader of the opposition hat.
60
‘It was foolish of the government to cut the amount spent on flood defences, certainly bad PR, but the amount was marginal, and it wouldn’t have done anything to prevent the present situation.’
I don’t think the thousands of people that have had their homes flooded in the past two months would somehow agree with or more importantly believe that.
Where was all this news coverage when Hull got flooded - don’t they sell many copies of the Mail there ?
67 - all the news programmes on Channel 4, or all the news programmes generally, RedFlump?
Maybe the rest of just imagined seeing Cameron wading down Witney high street, engaging with his constituents…?
65. “mimsying about in his helicopter”
the first time i’ve heard that verb used in combination with a helicopter!
But GB is fastidious in a fusty, crinkly-suited kind of way. That’s what’s proving popular about him.
65
I would point out seant, that the next election, will be won by the party that appeals to the 45/65 age group, all this virility and youth stuff, doesn’t go down to well with us: nurse the pills!
Re 27, Richard, “Having seen Panorama last night I can well understand why voters are so concerned at Labour’s policy of open door mass immigration and its effects on many parts of the UK.
The voters are clearly looking for a party and policy to address their concerns other than the BNP”
The BNP are already mopping up black support, and I suspect they will start on other ethnic minorities. After all older immigrant communities are generally in the front line of new waves of immigrants.
When you look at slough with a 40% turnover of pupils in some schools in a year then you get an idea of what the problem is which is the speed of change.
” I watched all the news programmes for the past few days - and I saw nothing of Cameron save his jaunt to Rwanda. ”
BBC News covered it fairly well. BTW, I also heard the ‘imigration’ soundbite from DC. That was significant as it was said delibrately. Out of everything he said, that word stuck in my head.
Also, PMQ’s will be bad for Brown tomorrow - I can feel it. This will be the first time that GB and DC really go for each other.
Matt.
Just being on topic, it strikes me as damned if you do damned if you don’t.
Cameron has been to flood hit areas, but he can’t keep trooping around them without getting in the way. He has spoken to people and done his photo ops.
Now he has gone to Rwanda on a long standing trip, he is being slagged off, but only by some papers.
Imagine what would have happened if he had stayed around to rubber neck in front of the cameras? He would then have been labeled by other parts of the media as a PR man as well.
76- “Also, PMQ’s will be bad for Brown tomorrow - I can feel it. This will be the first time that GB and DC really go for each other.”
Disagree. I think it will be a friendly one. I don’t think DC will try to make political capital out of the floods; and I don’t GB will dwell on Cameron’s ill-timed Rwandan sabbatical.
72 76. Unfortunately BBC 24 then went on to report the reaction as quoted in the Mail article which had several of his constituents saying ‘he arrived spoke to no-one got his face infront of the camera and then left again’.
58 I was referring to both. WRT to Britain I mean’t GB can do practical things as PM he has the power. All Cameron could do was make speech on TV and have his photo taken. WRT to Rwanda Cameron clearly hoped that me hight show or demonstrate resolve to the voters. Whether he showed resolve or in fact foolishness is separate from what he was presumably hoping to achieve.
63 I though Dismore held the expenses record. BTW what was the average London swing. About 3.5% IIRC. If so he was even a touch higher than the average London swing, and starting with a bigger majority than other Lasbour MPs who survived IIRC. You are of course quite right on the expenses thing. Hence my question if he has local roots. If not the Lib Dems will hammer home the the campaign theme of “Carpet Bagger”
On the subject of an October election, I see from other sites that there’s been a cock-up at the Boundary Commission. Although the new boundaries have only just been approved, they’ve now got to do an interim report because the local government side carried on reviewing with the result that some wards are *still* split between new constituencies. Although this may just be tidying up they leave longer over the summer holidays for reps (!)so this may not be all sorted out by October.
Re 65, SeanT “Re 10. Yup, I also noted that, “immigration” came top of Cameron’s list of public concerns. This makes sense - its the number 1 issue in people’s minds - see the polls - and the Tories should always have a lead on the issue, because Labour are incapable of not lying on this topic. There’s millions of voters waiting for a firm hand on the subject, who don’t want to vote BNP but who despair of Labour mendacity and ineptitude.”
Actually iy is a very careful line he has to play. Mention it just enough so that people will know we will deal with it, but not enough so that it scares the other horses.
15 - RW - “…and heavily partisan creatures on here are criticising DC as leader of the opposition for what he hasn’t done?”
Hmmm. In my observation these days there are many more vociferous DC/Tory supporters on pb.com than there were and they do seem to be getting awfully cross these days as well. I could have sworn that even the normally calm, measured & splendid blogger Benedict White swore last week!
LD’s seem to have drifted away (in the main) - certainly as far as posting is concerned. Interesting.
For what its worth. If I do win the next GE and become an MP I’ll know the Ealing result was one of the most significant by-elections I’ve ever fought in for the liberals - and I’ve helped out in quite a few…..for reasons that are blindingly obvious, as has been shown by the media and some of his Party turning on DC over the last few days.
Will he get a grip. Yes to an extent but I think there is an odds on chance now that the damage has been done.
Which obviously was our (LD) intent.
83 Are you standing then……
And a great tumult arose from the masses; “What about Ming?” they all cried!
Well, Ming went to Hull yesterday, and it seemed to me that his coverage on the TV news was quite good. The floods hit Hull (LD controlled?) a few weeks ago, and now that the waters have abated he was able to see what was being done to put things right. He wasn’t getting in the way, or posing as a savior of the people; instead, he was able to start asking some awkward questions about responsibility, planning, repairs and government funding.
Fact is, no one watches PMQs. I thought Cameron had the best of Gordon last week, but all that was reported was the cannabis thing. The onlt people who care about the point-scoring and the cheap remarks are the people on this site.
Re 83, SAC “I could have sworn that even the normally calm, measured & splendid blogger Benedict White swore last week!”
No I feckin didn’t, that was last night
65
‘I also noted that, “immigration” came top of Cameron’s list of public concerns. This makes sense - its the number 1 issue in people’s minds - see the polls - and the Tories should always have a lead on the issue, because Labour are incapable of not lying on this topic.’
Sean am not sure whether its a case of Labour lying about this topic or that the whols system is in meltdown and nobody knows the numbers and levels.
The Panorama report on immigration last night showed that the system was clearly in chaos.
A clear policy on this issue from the Tories will be easy for voters to contrast with the Labour policy of free for all no limits mass immigration of the past 10 years.
I guess the scale of the immigration is measured by the fact that a new UK passport is handed out every 5 minutes.
Sean T DC no longer poncy boots?
Re the Ruanda trip. Opposition leaders can’t act in the way Governments do. They have to use the power of their words and that can be enormously enhanced by the right pictures. To attack DC for ‘publicity stunts’ is ridiculous. What does Roger think TB and GB did between 1994-7 and bloody successful they were at it too. Turning to the question of whether the Ruanda trip was a good idea in principle, I think it was. DC was trying to get across important messages.
1 The Tories have changed. Has he said it before? Of course. Should he go on and on saying it? Of course. How many times do you think TB talked about New Labour before it sunk in with the public?. There must however be substance; it can’t just be spin. New Labour had changed; tax, defence, council house sales, trade union ballots. The Tories have to show real change as well
2. The Tories are interested in African issues over and above the interests of white farmers in Zimbabwe ( although the treatment of white farmers has been disastrous for the country). Tories accept that poverty in africa must be addressed as a moral issue.
3. Helping African countries helps the UK because poverty in africa breeds uncontrollable population flows and in some parts of africa terrorism. The best way of doing that is by opening up our markets. Overseas aid does, however, play an important part as well and we need to do much better at assessing the effectiveness of our aid and tying its disbursement to indicators of good governance. In that connection Ruanda is a good example because governance has improved.
Will these issues resonate with C2s; probably not. However, they do resonate with LD voters in Lab/Con marginal seats who are targets for both major Parties. They also resonate with some key opinion formers which matters as well.
Should he have cancelled? I think Nick has a point. DC is obsessed with the correct notion that the most disastrous thing an Opposition can do is be seen to be kicked around by the media and his backbenchers. He visited his constituency and then went ahead with the trip. A fine judgement not obviously right or wrong,and not much influenced by the Ruanda Parliament, I suspect, who could have postponed their invitation for a few days.
My feeling is that he will do decently at PMQs just because he usually does and that, pace Icarus, there will be few if any headbangers on Wednesday and lots of deskbangers. He will get a strong show of support. After all the polls portend a possible early election. If Nick is right and they look good in September then he will be spending plenty of time in his constituency in October. Enjoy your holiday Nick; I won’t be wishing you the best of luck, though. I hope you understand!
83
Has anyone told you yet that the Lib Dems didn’t win last week?
88. Richard. You are clearly not the Richard who used to post on this site. Pity.
http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/images/Dave%20Cameron%20Arctic.jpg
85
‘Well, Ming went to Hull yesterday’
I guess its a question at his age of ‘in your own time’as these floods were 4 weeks ago,saw him on TV looked as if he’d been embalmed.
80. “though Dismore held the expenses record”
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20051028/ai_n15811554
(towards the middle there’s the Davies’ reference)
“what was the average London swing. About 3.5% IIRC. If so he was even a touch higher than the average London swing, and starting with a bigger majority than other Lasbour MPs who survived IIRC”
The London swing was 4.9% with Labour % dropping by 8.4%. 3.3% is the average swing in England.
Croydon Central was the 8th most marginal Lab seat in London. Of the 7 more marginals 2 stayed Labour (Joan Ryan in Enfield North and Rudi Vis in Finchley). The other 5 fell (Bexleyheath & Crayford, Hornchurch, Hammersmith and Fulham, Ilford North and Putney). Among the seats with a bigger majority than Croydon Central 2 fell to the Tories (Enfield Southgate and Wimbledon)
90 He was probably able to find that out in the fine print of the Daily Mail…..
84.”Are you standing then”
Eastbourne, I think
Tomorrow is the last PMQs before summer is it not ? I predict a low risk approach from both sides - a no score draw.
An extremely stark warning for GB from the Sun on the EU Constitution.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2007340136,00.html
That’s not a position that The Sun can resile from. If Brown refuses a referendum, he will totally lose the Sun’s support at the next election, and doubtless the rest of the Murdoch papers as well - the Times, Sunday Times and News of the World. Plus of course the Mail, Standard, Express, etc.
Quite a gamble for Brown.
95 - correct Andrea, as ever.
97 - Murdoch will not back Cameron if he is about to loose the next GE, referendum or not. Murdoch wants to be on the winning side.
95 A bit of a long shot for him to become an MP. Assuming reasonably the Conservatives advance % next time it is very difficult. There is hardly any Labour votes left to squeeze unlike say Eastleigh
BTW Given their strength in West Country generally why are they not challenging in Exeter
82. “Mention [immigration] just enough so that people will know we will deal with it, but not enough so that it scares the other horses.”
Almost inaudible to those for whom it’s not intended, like a dog-whistle?
I’m not being totally flippant here. I think part of the significance of the mention of immigration is that it reveals DC to be changing his position. See how his position was being reported in December 2005:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=2427922005.
This change either shows 1) how he has been weakened by polls and by elections and is being forced back on to more familiar tory territory or 2) he’s genuinely shifted his position for a second time since writing the 2005 manifesto or 3) he’s shifted his view of what will play best with the public. I think 3 (and he may be right). With maybe a dash of 2.
re 99. I’m not sure that Murdoch is only prepared to back obvious winners. In 1992 he was totally hostile to Kinnock even though all the polls were pointing to Labour being top party.
99. Nope. I work for the Murdoch empire. Europe is one of the few things that gets otherwise cynical journalists in a strop. It may not matter to the voters - yet - but it certainly matters to the writers. I’m not sure why so many press journos are fiercely eurosceptic, but they are. Maybe they recognise duplicity when they see it!
Anyway, trust me. This is a crunch issue, certainly for The Sun, I would say for the Times as well. If Brown forces this through, then he will lose their support. End of.
11. “It is noticable how both Conservatives and Labour seem to use much more expensive paper for their leaflets than the streetwise Liberal Democrats”
I also thnk they are not as good negotiators (probably because they don’t have to be). At a recent election we got sent the Conservative bill (in error!) from the printer for their constituency wide newspaper (we were using the same printer). For an identical newspaper and same numbers from the same printer, but admittedly slightly better paper the Conservatives paid almost exactly twice what we paid! We were shocked.
Subsequenbt to this we checked their expense return and in additional they paid £1000 to someone to design the newspaper, we do it ourselves for nothing (which also gives you have a much shorter deadline for amendments).
101. That should say “With maybe a dash of 1.”
British attitudes to the EU, are like their attitude to the weather, they moan about it but know there’s nothing much they can do about it. I don’t feel there is any great enthusiasm for a referendum. To me if we are in, lets get on with it, if we don’t like it lets get out of it. UKIP as a party may lack credibility, but their position on the EU is clear, vote for us and we’ll come out, simple and easy to understand. The Conservative position is what exactly? vote for us and we’ll moan about it more than the other parties, but come out, nah!
Re 101, James, if you read the article, in essence his position is that immigration per se is good, net immigration needs to be looked at because it has wider implications.
It is in essence a nicer way of saying we need secure borders and a limit to immigration, which is no different to the 2005 manifesto, it is just being sold with more careful language.
Regretably some people just do not listen.
100 - punter. Lets hope your wrong. Under boundary changes the Tory MP is losing 700 votes to my couple of hundred so ‘notional’ gap will be 1%. Plus in May we turned a Con 15 cllrs and LD 12 cllrs to LD 20 and Con 7.
We’ll see.
102 Is that true. It certainly wasn’t showing a Labour landslide in other words neck and neck where Media could still influence the result unlike say 1997 when Blair was going to win no matter what. IIRC the biggest Labour Lead in the campaign was 7% at the time enough for the barest of majorities. In other words things could still swing as indeed they did ultimately……..
108 I saw only 5,000 Labour voters in 2005 not much margin there. I doubt new tactical voters will flock to the polls if voter turnout lifts. If anything it’ll be more likely that Tory voters turnout in greater numbers. Think you’d have better chances with a Lab seat. Plymouth Sutton say would have been interesting. A pretty good 3rd but with opportunity to do a Falmouth
106. The Tory position is clear: We don’t want to give any more powers to the EU. Certainly not until it is totally reformed, and totally democratic. Which, given its nature, it probably never can be.
What we want is a semi-detached position - free trade, close and friendly cooperation on several other matters, and that’s it. We don’t want to be ruled from Brussels any more than is necessary in an economic bloc, which is what we thought we joined.
The Tory position is in fact much more coherent than Labour’s. It is now clear the the EU is headed towards political union; as Barosso says, it is already an ‘empire’. This blatant fact can only be concealed or blurred for a while - and for not much longer I’d have thought. The crunchpoint will come in the next ten years.
What happens then? Either we go for full integration and absorption into the ‘empire’, or we sem-detach ourselves (as the British people want). The left is in denial about this inevitability. The Tories have accepted it.
The next Tory government will call a referendum, even if Labour doesn’t. It’s in the Tories’ DNA. Like banning foxhunting was for Labour.
Punter Mike’s right. A week before polling day three polls came out; two 6s and a 7. That would easily have given Labour a majority( even a 7.5% lead only just gave the Tories a 21 seat margin. Imagine a 7% swing from those figures!) I have no doubt that Murdoch thought Kinnock would win but he coldn’t stand him and got his papers to act accordingly.
Actually as Mike has told us repeatedly the polls were completely wrong. The excuse of that famous russian, the late ‘Serge’ was an attempt by some pollsters to excuse themselves. Where Sean T is wrong is to think you can win elections by telling voters what the most important issues are. They decide the salience not the politicians or even the Press. Europe is way down the list and that is unlikely to change. DC is not going to make Hague’s mistake of banging on and on about an issue which is simply not central to voters’ preoccupations. As far as the Sun or any other paper is concerned their editorials are not very important. It’s not much good getting their overall support if they’re hammering you in general on the news pages. The Mail will endorse DC but how many bother with their editorials? What readers are getting is a diet of generally pro GB stories and DC hammered about his trip on the front page and by Richard Littlejohn.
How things change,!in 1983, the Labour Party manifesto,(the longest suicide note in history) called for withdrawal, and then associate status, not too disimilar from the position of many Tory Eurosceptics today) don’t recall it receiving too much support from the press at the time. When the Bennite left forced a referendum on the Labour Party, on whether the UK should remain a member, this was strongly attacked. In fact I remember, Rhodes Boyston stating on the George Gale phonein on LBC, the reason that Tony Benn, (Tories think he’s cuddly now, he was the devil incarnate then) wanted us out of the EEC, was to hand the UK over to the Soviet Union, when in doubt play the Bolshevik card.
To those posters who immediately respond by saying, that was the EEC not the EU, I would refer you to Edward Heath’s biography, the chapter entitled, ‘Fanfare for Europe’ in which Heath, makes it quite clear that the E.U. was the inevitable, (and desirable) consequence of our membership.
He did the right thing, imagine the furore if he had cancelled the trip. In any case, the opposition isn’t answerable for the failings over flood planning, the government are. If they need someone to push them into explaining what went wrong they aren’t to be trusted and the failing is in government not opposition.
112 There is a difference between a weak Labour Govt small majority difficult economy which could easily be kicked out next time and a landslide one, which could hurt you seriously. IIRC 6% was the estimated UNS Labour needed in 1992
Cameron was unlucky in the timing of his trip.
In terms of the floods, the damage is the fault of the Liberal and Conservative governments of the mid 19th century. Not only did they allow far too much building on flood plains, it was very slapdash of them to build infrastructure that could only last about 150 years.
112. Er, but I never said that DC would win an election on Europe. FWIW nor do I think he is best advised to bang on about it. I just said GB will lose the support of the Sun and the rest of the Murdoch press on this issue. Which he will, if he refuses a referendum.
And not having the Sun on board when it comes to an election does matter, quite a lot. Ask T Blair.
Of course Brown might calculate he can win without the Sun, et al, and he could well be right. But it is a gamble. Which is what I said - and is all I said - originally.
113. Yawn. You always trot out this line. Dull. No matter what is on paragraph 13, page 784, of Edward Heath’s 2nd volume of self-serving puffery, sorry memoirs, the British people thought they were joining an economic community. Which is fair enough, as it was called an “economic community” at the time.
Anyway, the answer to all these problems is - if the EU is so good, give us a vote on it. Let us decide, once and for all. End the debate, lance the boil, extract the poison. It will happen in the end, anyway.
61 - The Daily Mail is a hateful paper (exactly why it’s referred to as the ‘Hate Mail’), I doubt I could support anyone that they liked. Still, I suppose you could balance that out with la Toynbee and The Guardian, as opposed to la Phillips and the Mail. I’ve recently stopped reading newspapers apart from on a Sunday, I don’t mind reading opposing views but there’s a huge chunk of the market in the centre that none of them appear to be targetting.
103. SeanT. “99. Nope. I work for the Murdoch empire”
By that token I work for Mercedes BMW Fiat Seat Peugeot General Motors Lufthansa British Airways Ferrero Mars Elida Gibbs Kellogs Procter and Gamble Unilever and just about every other well known household name. So if you want an authoratative opinion on any-or at least as authoratative as SeanT’s is on Murdoch-I’m your man!.
I forgot the Express!
I think the importance of newspapers is greatly overstated. With the quality press, relatively few people read them, and many of those do not need to be told how to vote.
With the Sun, many don’t vote. They like the tits, and read the paper from the back (sport) to the middle (gossip). We always hear things like “It’s the Sun wot won it”, but isn’t it the case that the Sun just likes to back a winner?
Even in 1987 and 1992, I would have thought that more Sun readers voters Labour than Tory, but I don’t have the figures.
As for the Mail - I acknowledge that it is an excellent newspaper. What it does, it does very well. It is also fairly interesting - and is certainly independent.
The Express, on the other hand is utter crap!
119. Er, what? Your analogy is juvenile.
Because my main employ is with the Sunday Times - and it used to be with the Times - I’ve met a lot of Murdoch journalists, from the Sunday Times editor downwards. So I have a good idea what they think. Ergo, I know their euroscepticism is serious.
If you had spent the last ten years doing adverts for Mercedes, during which time you spent many hours discussing the car’s performance with Mercedes engineers - then you would have a genuine insight into the strengths and weaknesses of Mercedes cars.
That’s a better analogy. Try harder, Woger.
120 - that said, I disagree with 95% of what the Mail says.
The Mail is a truely disgusting paper. On topic today - a few people have lost their dvds and need new carpets - be still my beating hearts how will they survive.
Meanwhile in Rwanda people were slaughtered in their millions - luckily for Mail readers “no Britons were involved”.
Even Trevor Cavanah has said several times that he has no idea which way the Sun will go. So why an occasional freelancer sdhould have Murdochs ear is beyond me. My analogy was perfect. I’ve sat in many PPM’s where company aims and objectives have been discussed. But I would only claim a very small insight into the business.
123 - Exactly, it’s this sort of rabid right wing thinking that seems to be infesting people who would previously never have considered their sort of little Englander view as being credible. Attacking Cameron for actually seeking to do *good* for others being a case in point.
He’s not around today, but the poster who considered it laudable to ridicule my students, because they have the temerity to raise money for African schools is typical, a vicious mix of all that is bad about state socialism and right wing nationalism.
At the end of the day the Murdoch press will do as as Murdoch decides. Trevor Kavanagh has never been happy about the Sun’s support of labour but he is given freedom to push his views up to a point when it comes down to who the paper is going to support at an election the decision is taken by Murdoch. Clearly he favours a referendum but if labour continues to be seen as the likely winner of the next election with the tories looking distinctly second best ( and Murdoch is known to not like toffs ) will he want to change the habits of a lifetime and not back the likely winner?
124 - I think Murdoch is definitely a pro-European. But I think his preferred vision, of a possibly federal Europe, does not include the UK. Bit like Churchill and his “United States of Europe.”
108 SAC One of your problems is the Greens and you’re not the only LD candidate in that position. 2.5% isn’t a heck of a lot but if they didn’t run a candidate it would transform your chances in a tight race. Of course if UKIP put on a few votes that would have the same effect for you. If Sean T is right and europe is a big issue you might get your wish; another reason for DC not running the issue too hard.
Sean T You didn’t answer my point about editorials versus general news coverage. Also DC doesn’t agree with you about europe. What you want is unachievable inside the EU. It would require 26 other countries to rip up the existing basis of the EU and start again. They’re not going to do that and DC knows that; see his rowing back on the Common Fisheries Policy. If DC were elected post ratification he’d be stuck with the new treaty amendments and europe as is and so would you. If not I agree he could demand wholesale renegotiation of the package because he would have the power of veto. That would certainly put the chat parmi les pigeons!
127. Interesting, possibly true.
124. Not interesting, laughably trite.
I don’t think politicains should play one another off over the floods, but Brown did not convince me that he cared about it or is it just his body language? Cameron faces a dilema if he goes to Africa he is accused of neglecting his constituents, and if he doesn’t he’s accused of not caring about the third world.
I believe the best way for the flooding to be dealt with is to have an English Parliment which will deal with English problems and disasters better than the current UK Westminster Parliament - Brown did cut the Flood Budget against advice. English people want an English Prime Minister (or at least an English First Minister to deal with these disasters).
Could anyone tell us what the odds are for an English Parliament to in place by 2011? I will place a bet that it will.
128 Blue Moon. Your quite right.