Is an early election the cautious approach?
July 26th, 2007
Can Gordon risk his poll leads falling off?
Whenever the subject of an early election, perhaps as soon as October, is mentioned people dismiss the idea because of Gordon’s character. The man, they argue, is not a risk taker and why should he chance everything on an early poll.
Fine. But is waiting the risky strategy? As we’ve seen with Cameron and the Tories the opinion polls can move very fast and the longer an election is delayed the greater the chance of something happening that turns the whole political situation round.
The argument for moving quickly while the Tories are in apparent turmoil must be very tempting. Poll leads of 6-7% may not survive much beyond the summer and better to strike while there’s still the novelty of him not being Tony Blair and the media continue their uncritical coverage. Honeymoons, alas, do come to an end.
My general election date strategy looks to produce big profits on a 2007 election; quite good profits with a 2008 one; the possibility of a loss if there’s a late 2009 election and a nice profit if it goes on until 2010.
I’ve sold “Gordon Brown weeks” on the Cantor Spreadfair market at 85.5. I’ve combined this with a covering bet at 7/1 with Ladbrokes on a 2010 election. The spread bet keeps me in profit on anything upto the third week of March 2009. I then have a period of risk until 2010 when my Ladbrokes 7/1 comes in.
I’ve been quite taken by the argument that it will be either early or late.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No
My argument all along, the safe option is going early, don’t wait for events to trip you up: be a Guderian not a Montgomery!
just to re post something that might have got lost in the last thread’s deluge of euro drivel…
for an analysis of why both the courses you mention are dubious from an economic/political point of view see
http://business.guardian.co.uk/economy/story/0,,2132710,00.html
this fits in with the various figures out today re mortgage lending and house prices.
3. Only if Labour is certain to do worse than it would do in October, if it delays.
A relevant repost from last night:
What evidence is mustered to support the ‘Gordon has no balls’ theory that’s routinely trotted out here? He didn’t split the Labour party by launching a coup against Tony but with the benefit of hindsight it looks like he judged it perfectly. Is there anything else that he’s done or failed to do which suggests he’s a bottler?
If the floods don’t dampen people’s enthusiasm for him straight away, then boredom, other events and, increasingly, interest rates will do the same job fairly steadily. And he must realise it. He’ll go sooner rather than later. Next spring.
Yes, in that he’d be pretty sure of some kind of a majority - a smaller one that at present, I’d think - for the next few years. If he waits, he may lose outright. People writing off Cameron before the dust has settled in the Tory party and the Brown bounce has ended need to get some perspective. Cameron could emerge stronger than ever. Like Darth Vader.
I’d put an October election at about a one in three shot. One in three says the polls won’t be good enough and one in three says he’ll bottle it or be told Labour need more time to raise the money.
Is it his best bet yes. Who knows what will happen over the winter? DC might effect a succesful relaunch at the Party Conference. Also GB will be able to fudge the EU issue by saying he’s quite prepared to veto a treaty he won’t have signed up to by then.
The GB project is all about creating the idea that this period is a short prologue to GB’s ‘first term’. With every passing quarter that will be a more challenging act to pull off for the chief political strategis of the new Labour project. Once he goes past May 2008 he’ll have to wait until May 2009 when it will feel much more like the end of Labour’s third term.
All the Labour spinning that an October election won’t happen should be taken with a sackful of salt. GB doesn’t want to get boxed in. However, come september if the polls are this good he’ll find it very hard to resist the pressure on him. Not going this October could be the biggest risk of all.
2 Not sure that analogy holds water. By ignoring Churchill’s demands to go immediately and throw his tanks onto Rommel’s 88’s, Monty made sure of victory, he even attacked when knew Rommel was out of Africa cunning or what.
Mr Smithson. There is another aspect GB’s character you ignore the Historian. If as Mr Fear says you think he can hold or better his majority then he should go. But if as is a good chance as you yourself point Cameron shines in campaign and slashes or even eliminates his majority then why go now. Sure there’s a risk DC may win in a couple years, though the odds favour Labour, but GB the Historian may well calculate he can better secure his place in History in two to three years with a 60ish majority that he now regards as much his as Blairs thanks to his 2005 General Election role, as he couldin 4-5 years with a substantiallyreduced Majority or even no Majority at all. Had you considered that
It’s not the cautious approach - the cautious approach would be to “wait and see”.
However it is the sensible approach. Brown can’t expect to increase his lead - realistically it will decrease and may even disappear in the foreseeable future.
Personally I think we should bring in fixed-length Parliaments, unless there is a successful vote of no confidence.
6. - “Cameron could emerge stronger than ever. Like Darth Vader.”
You’re thinking of Obi-Wan Kenobi.
I have always thought that when Brown became PM he would go much, much sooner than people were banking on. So far he’s recorded an average of bounce from 35.5% to 38.8% (+3.3%), this is a percentage increase of 9.3%. When Major replaced Thatcher, his first bounce poll was from 33 to 45 (+12) a 36% increase. So based on that theory, Brown has to go to the country four times FASTER than Major did. That means that instead of going to the country in 16 months aftr taking office like Major did, he has to go 4 months after taking office which puts us in (that’s right) October 2007!
The longer he leaves it the more people with mortgages see their fixed periods ending and a large decrease in their available cash.
So each month he delays the weaker his position will get.
I agree that the least risky choice is to go this October. Also a short campaign may not burn up much more than £10m.
9 Major’s bounce was exaggerated by (a) the extreme unpopularity of the Conservatives in Autumn 1990, prior to his taking over, adn (b) the swift and successful conclusion to the first Gulf War.
8. FWIW, I’m pretty sure his majority would fall if he went in October, and maybe be completely eliminated. But if he feels that’s as good as it gets for him, then he should do it.
7. I don’t want to get right back into “euro-drivel” - promise! - but I must briefly pick you up on your idea that GB can completely finesse the Constitution issue by going in October.
Yes he can say “I will only sign a Treaty I agree with, red lines must be respected blah blah”. But I don’t think the sceptic press will let him get away with such a vague formulation during the intense scrutiny of a GE. He will be asked, time and again: if the Treaty you sign is anything like the one in Lisbon now, will we have a referendum?
To this he will, presumably, have to say No. Cue the outraged opposition of the Mail, the Sun, the Times, and a nice fillip for the Tories.
Tricky for him. But that’s my last remark on the EU… for today.
I don’t think GB will go for October, anyway, unless the polls are fabulous. Which they’re not - yet. The by-election results were not that good for Labour either. The lost voters have not come back, they’re just drifting between parties.
Even if Labour had Roger’s 10 point lead (and it won’t), then Brown would still bottle it because he’d run the risk of events during the campaign tripping him up and putting Mr Cameron into No 10 - and him serving for just 4 months as PM. What an undignified end (albeit deserved) that would be.
It’s a ballsy PM who calls a GE when he’s a 50+ majority, a need to impose his mark on the country, and nearly 3 years of a Parliament left to do it.
To be honest, I’d probably bottle it if I was in his shoes right now.
Mr Smithson I would reduce your risk to October 2009. Going onto the Historian point again if GB wants to give himself as much time as possible, I doubt equally he will want to be compared to Callaghan even if they are behind, hence the compromise as late as he dared but not so late as to invite Sunny Jim comparisons would be October or even perhaps November 2009
Mike, good article, but there is no safe option. There is a risk whenever he takes it.
Arguably getting in on the bounce is the safest option though it muist be tempting to wonder if the Conservatives will implode if given time. (I don’t think we will but that does not stop people thinking that we will)
11 Would it be though for him. I think you are hitting on two separate issue, what is good for Labour is not necessarilythe same for Gordon. Even if that it was good as it got for Labour, if you are right how can it be as good as it gets for him. He wants to be remembered he surely has a far greater chance with a 60ish majority than a vastly reduced or even eliminated Majority, you agree or not
Also, what does he really gain by going now? Another two years, very possibly with a reduced majority. Would that make him or Labour feel so much better?
An early GE just wouldn’t feel “right” to the electorate either, I don’t think. Voters might look at him and say - you’ve got a majority, you’ve got three years to run, you’re meant to be governing the country, but you want to bore us all to death with an early and unnecessary election, out of sheer vanity. Bog off!
A serious chance of alienating the electorate, I’d have thought.
sean T Look at the polls. A big majority have bought the Tory/LD argument that GB should be endorsed in an early election. Please try to keep up.
Well, Nick Palmer’s already sent he won’t go unless he believes he can increase his majority, which seems to me plain common sense. But, to paraphrase the sagacious Benny, just because that’s what I think, it doesn’t mean others will think differently…
And welcome to Sarah, if we haven’t put her off already
Hey seant you’ll like this ‘A Nation Once Again’
http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=141507&command=displayContent&sourceNode=232739&home=yes&more_nodeId1=201778&contentPK=17928446
18. Yeah, the voters may SAY that. But do they really mean it? Voters are stupid. That’s why we have a parliamentary democracy, not endless pointless referenda! We elect people to govern us, not bow to the so-called “wisdom of crowds”.
We can’t let the public can be trusted with these decisions.
21 Risible piffle. Must be catching.
20
Well If Marcus takes Torbay, I for one will be nominating him as Minister for Devon.
20. Crikey, he’s almost certainly a relative! I’ve got cousins called Prisk and they all live - or come from - Redruth or Camborne.
My family basically RULES Cornwall. Hooray! Kernow bys Vyken!
How much does an election campaign cost? Can the labour party raise enough funds to run a campaign? I would wager my house on a 2007 election if I thought that Labour could fund a campaign.
The ar$e is about to drop out of the housing market with a huge credit crunch coming over from the US.
Gordon’s miracle economy will be shown up for the debt bubble that it is and Labour will be out of power for a generation.
If he does not go early he will go at the very end
The only thing Gordon has to consider when deciding whether call a GE now or later is how big a landslide does he want to win by. Go now and we’re talking a 100 seat majority; wait a few months for the polls to improve even further - people still do not fully know and appreciate Gordon; floods have dampened spirits etc. - and I think Labour will achieve the sort of breathtaking majority that will make 1997 look like a hung parliament.
These are very, very heady times for Labour. The successes Gordon has achieved already as PM are astonishing: masterly, statesmanlike performances during a national catastrophe has shown him as the man for a crisis; two stonking by-election victories that left the opposition in meltdown; policy announcements such as abandoning super-casinos, reclassifying cannabis and setting up a border police that have both united the party and received a surprised, approving nod from the electorate; the Tories in utter disarray and on the verge of ditching yet another leader.
I wonder, also, how the people of Witney felt about Cameron abandoning them to their fate and swanning off to warmer climes? Perhaps Dave should be persuaded from standing as an MP at the next election if the Tories don’t want to loose that seat as well.
26 LOL!
20.
Prisk by name. . . .
26 Made my day there. Thanks.
20.24. It’s a small world, isn’t it? Mark Prisk and I were contemporaries at Reading Uni. We were Chairs, respectively, of Reading Uni Conservatives and Liberals in, IIRC, 1981/2.
26. Another classic…but it’s getting harder to distinguish between Mr.Harper’s fine spoofing and the actual comments of some posters.
26 - You post too infrequently …but when you do
26.
24.
“My family basically RULES Cornwall”
Regular readers will note the similarity between the regular public prouncements of Mr Camilla and the postings of Sean T. (:)
re 26. Of course in 2001 Cameron’s victory in Witney was one of the very few Tory gains that year.
Do Tories on this site really believe that they are more impartial that Labour or Lib Dem posters? The pb.com centre of gravity appears to me to be right of centre but those who hold different views are routinely criticised (or parodied) for ’spinning’ or astro-turfing.
37.
And there I was thinking that every time they posted they were extracting the kidney juices from themselves!
Not ‘routinely’, that’s over-stating it. ‘Frequently’.
36. Mike, you are going off message mentioning that little success. Remember Cameron is so yesterday while Brown is the new black in politics. I must admit that he hid his wonderful array of attributes so well that the electorate has been wowed beyond Nick Palmer’s wildest expectations, although Roger will claim he has been right all along.
Can people please use tinyurl.com if they’re going to post long webpage addresses!
31 Alan J, please would wou e-mail me? augustuscarp (all one word) at gmail fullstop com
Long - 10%
October - 30%
May/June - 60%
If he goes long he’ll lose.
Early he’ll win.
$64,000 question is which of the two will give him the most seats combined with the urgent need for Labour to store some cash. Hence why I think he’ll go May/June next year.
Either way he will lose seats because the pendulum has swung a bit.
We’re now prepping to be ready from Oct, as I’m sure other target seats of whichever party are.
Trevor Kavanagh has let it be known that he thinks Brown will win and he’ll win ‘Big’
27 Oh God! Labour’s answer to test, something inside of me has just died!
Gordon Brown is mortal, David Cameron is mortal, the runes are in Gordon’s favour, he must grasp the nettle, strike while the iron is hot, ok enough of the metaphors, just do it Gordo.
Mike, you’re misrepresenting the case for going early being the “risky” option. An early election isn’t “risky” in relation to his chances of success viz a viz a late election (it quite obviously isn’t), but it is risky in relation to the chances of him being in government for the next 2 years viz a viz not calling an election in the next two years.
Brown has made a huge deal about his government being a government of change,he mentioned it nine times in his Downing street speech.
If he goes for a GE in October what will he have achieved in terms of change in 3 months other than a few differnt faces around the cabinet table?
An early election could well backfire on Brown with the public asking why an election is necessary when the government has a 66 seat majority and 3 years left.
For 18 months we have had poll after poll showing that The Great British Electorate think that compared to Cameron, Brown’s a loser, they don’t like him, lack of charisma, bad leader, shocking Chancellor, poll ratings of Michael Foot etc.
We now get 2 or 3 polls showing Labour, and Brown, ahead.
Whatever your spin on it, or particular allegiance, some polls are wrong somewhere along the line.
For the time being, and I’m no scientist, but I’ll stick with the prevailing 18 month trend rather than the 4 weeks over the summer trend.
In the full glare of an election campaign, and a remotely interested electorate, Brown will be exposed.
TV debate, Gordon? No, thought not…
44 Where has that come from
Who cares when he goes, he’ll lose.
anyone else starting to work towards 25th October?
summer hols……..
party conferences……..
back to parliament (amost typed “work”)……
then off for a “quickie”………
yes, 25th feels right!
For those calling for a Referendum there has come some support from an unlikely source today:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6917944.stm
47. While I don’t think its as clear-cut as you make, the dramatic swing of opinion polls shows public opinion, whichever way, is highly superficial, and would be subject to a lot of change over an election campaign. Brown knows this and is too cautious a man to risk it. He’s finally Prime Minister and he’d rather have a definite few years than a possible five or six. If he went now he knows how history would judge him - “The guy that waited ten years for the job and then threw it away after a few months!”
Can anyone confirm whether the new constituency boundaries have actually come into force yet? Would an October election be fought on the old or new ones? Thanks
51. The utterly splendid Gisela Stuart! Not only a onetime Labour minister, but the actual representative of our government when they drew up the Constitution in the first place.
Labour are already looking highly uncomfortable on this issue. With Ms Stuart saying:
“This is now a question of trust. It is a question of having given a commitment to a referendum on a document which we say is good for Britain. If we are so confident it is good, we should have the confidence to ask the people.”
… It gets harder. Of course, she’s right. It’s a question of trust, above and beyond the EU issue. They promised us a referendum. That’s one reason they were elected. Either they call a General Election and get a mandate to sign without a referendum, or they give us a referendum.
Simple. Not quantum physics.
If they hadn’t promised a vote they could get away without giving one now. But they did promise a vote. So they’re screwed.
They cannot hold their present position.
53. Yes the new boundaries are now in force.
Sorry to go OT, but three of the eight Lib Dem Councillors on Torridge District Council have resigned from the Party after discovering one of their candidates in May (and a Bideford Town Councillor) is a “stripper, a kissogram and runs a sex phone line”.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=470983&in_page_id=1770
19. Except for the fact that GB didn’t call an election when he first came in, so it won’t look like doing one because he thinks its right, it looks like opportunism. Doing one early next year would be even worse in this respect.
Rik W Sean T
It’s not that surprising a source. Who said this in 2004 about her colleagues on the constitutional convention:
‘a self selecting group of the european political elite determined to deepen EU integration’. Along with a few other Labour MPs she is a committed eurosceptic and has always strongly opposed the EU constitution. It’ll be interested to see how many Labour MPs vote for a referendum during the Report stage of any implementation Bill(or for that matter the committee stage if it’s held on the floor of the House as it probably would be). The LDs will vote for it as will the Nats, I suppose. Another reason for an October election?
58. I’ve actually followed Gisela Stuart’s cognitive progress on this issue, and read some of her pensees on the way.
You are slightly wrong I think.
As I understand it, the evolution of her beliefs mirrors that of many on the left when they actually encounter Europe at close quarters (though a few others go the other way, like Robin Cook).
She started off as a fairly convinced europhile, I believe - for the usual vague lefty reasons that it is supranational, liberal in temperament, nice and cosy, cooperative, opposed by the right, not horrible and xenophobic etc etc.
That’s why she was appointed to the Convention - do you really think she would have been sent there if she was a “convinced eurosceptic” at the time?
However, when she got to Brussels she found - in her own words - a bunch of Federalists determined to “hollow out” national identity. She realised these people really did want to stealthily overtake the nation state and supplant it with Europe. And they were determined to do it with the Constitution.
She came back a chastened eurosceptic, and thus she has remained.
But anyway, whatever her ideology, her views are hugely unhelpful to Brown. She was the Labour rep on the Convention that drew up the Constitution! I genuinely think GB is in trouble on this. The Sun banging away every day calling you a traitor isn’t nice.
I don’t think an October Election really solves his problem either. For the reasons I state above.
What he could do, though, is call a GE and, in the campaign, promise a referendum immediately afterwards. If he lost the plebiscite it would be early enough in his premiership not to really matter. And promising a vote would keep the press on his side in the GE.
59
but who would believe such a promise?
Labour’s majority is almost certainly to fall at the next election- if Brown can be convinced that he will keep a majority at all he will go, even a certainty of 300 seats plus may be tempting because it guarentees him a mandate of sorts as the largest party
so as a strategist the autumn polls are critical- if Brown polls 10% leads plus in September he must go, and go soon,
leads of 5-10% and he must be in the 70% plus range- where Labour was in 2005, but knowing that Cameron will peg back in a campaign,
between2-4%- where I expect Labour to be- then still a possibility- in the 30% range, and even if the Tories peg back 3-4% in a campaign he knows that he will have 300 seats.
But if Labour polls small leads into next spring then Brown will go next year.
The interesting question though is just how many gains does Cameron need to make to secure his position for another push
I think 30 plus will be sufficient- anything that brings Labour’s majority into single figures and below (assuming that the LD’s stand still).
If Labour have a double digit majority plus Cameron is finished.
Also, if Brown goes into an election on a slim lead or less how much will he compromise on PR as an enticement for the LD’s.
We are into a fascinating period of British politics
He won’t poll 10%+, so that’s out.
Almost invariably an early poll=smaller or no majority. To what avail?
Never has this man taken a risk, witness how all the prospective leadership contenders were “nobbled”. Why take the risk? He won’t.
As for the Euro referendum, Blair gave way. I think Brown has far less backbone.
“even a certainty of 300 seats plus may be tempting because it guarentees him a mandate of sorts as the largest party” Madness see 8 Tyson
he could go for an early election but he can never plan for ‘events’ outwith his control. Also he will be a bit cautious as he has to deal with the Salmond bounce up here.
59.
Of course her remarks are embarrassing to GB just as Ken Clarke’s remarks on the referendum were embarrassing to DC in the Commons yesterday. He may not have been on the convention but he’s a lot better known than she is. I’m just making the point that she’s been anti the Constitution from its inception. I can’t find chapter and verse for her euro views pre convention but I can well imagine that TB thought an MP of a euro-sceptic disposition would be helpful in curbing Giscard’s excesses.
I’m sure it suited her to exaggerate her ‘horror’ at how Giscard and others went about their task but I’m not convinced she was a europhile beforehand. Still if you’ve got chapter and verse I will happily bow to your superior knowledge on her polkitical journey. Still my point stands it is not surprising that she’s saying what she is now.
Punter- you make a good point in 8, and one that probably will be proved right.
marcia. I’m glad you mentioned the Salmond bounce. It is indeed a factor although I wonder whether there’s any likelihod of it disappearing for some time so GB may have to live with it. How big is it? Are you guys really likely to do well in Westminster elections though; surely you always underperform there? I presume the aircraft carrier order should help shore up Glasgow Govan for Labour? Thanks for any comments.
Harman has just became Secretary of State for Equalities…other than being Deputy Leader, Party Chairman, minister for women and Leader of the House.
It seems as everytime a new little job comes up, they give it to Harman
65 Look are you sure the Salmond bounce will translate to Westminster. You are a Party of Power now not Protest. Split ticket voting is quite common in America you know. As it happens though you may arguably be right possibly because by 2009/2010, the independence now fanatics will be putting heat on Salmond for serious measures, and the large number of SNP voters who may shall we say be unconvinced could quite easily be susceptible to a GB call to use the Westminster vote as a painless way to fire a warning shot across your bows. But in any case after Glasgow Central? your next target is to overturn a 14.9% majority as your 2nd Labour held target, so I don’t think GB will be quaking any time soon
65. Marcia, a good point. Alex Salmond and the SNP are enjoying a bounce too which might throw a spanner in the works in some Labour heartlands. On the other hand I am not sure that the voters don’t see Holyrood and Westminster as completely separate in political terms?
70. ” But in any case after Glasgow Central? ”
they can get second place in Central.
What happens to the party conferences if he calls an October election? Cancelled?
If he plays it long, his friend Ming may no longer be leader of the LDs.
The problem for SNP against Labour at Westminster level is that in 2005 GE they didn’t perform so well and so they didn’t generally cut Lab majorities by much at that time not giving them many targets next time (not as many as they had at Holyrood elections). Ochil is an obvious target but after that there’s Dundee West (as Punter said aboive a 14% majority which can be held by Lab even with a good swing to SNP
Bob Sykes @ 47 re polls on Gordon Brown — people vote for parties, not leaders.
In Brown’s case there is also the Tories’ tactic of painting him as a dour, baby-eating loser, and clearly he must be better than that. Presumably the Tories aimed at boucing Labour into electing Miliband. Labour did the same thing a couple of Tory leadership elections ago by putting it about that Ken Clarke was the one they really feared.
As there’re no boundary changes in Scotland, there’s no even the problem of the notionals and co…in 2005 GE SNP was second to Labour in 18 seats:
(seat and majority)
Ochil and South Perthshire 1,5
Dundee West 14,6
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 19,6
Linlithgow and Falkirk East 24,1
Paisley and Renfrewshire North 26,9
Glenrothes 28,5
Falkirk 29,5
Livingstone 29,5
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch 29,6
Dunbartonshire West 30,2
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahago 30,8
Inverclyde 31,2
Motherwell and Wishaw 41,0
Airdrie and Shotts 42,5
Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath 43,6
Glasgow East 43,7
Glasgow South West 44,9
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill 50,9
74. Andrea, I am not sure that the SNP would get a Westminster bounce in a GE after doing so well in May. But I also think that they are much stronger and more popular now than in 2005?
77. “But I also think that they are much stronger and more popular now than in 2005? ”
yes, but the problem IMO at Wesminster level is that there aren’t many Lab-SNP marginals, so if they’re more popular now, I would expect them to cut many Labour majorities, but starting from far behind in many seats it wouldn’t be enough to take many of them.
Andrea Can one read across anything from the FPTP results for the Scottish Parliament rather than looking back at 2005? I understand that the SNP have historically done worse in Westminster but if Salmond’s breakthrough has changed the game that may put more Westminster seats in play, I suppose. SNP credibility has presumably shot up. At least at Holyrood they finally delivered and shut up the Scottish establishment who said that Labour always bounced back and hammered them.
77 They undoubtedly are. But Andrea’s point is that their performance in 2005 means they have such a mountain, that they can record very large swings in all those seats and yet still see Labour holds. Quite possible they may pinprick Gordon by maybe picking off one or two perhaps, but it would take a real tsunami for any significant number to fall to them
66. It would be enormously helpful to the Tories if Ken Clarke would come out in favour of a referendum. He doesn’t have to renounce his pro-European views - just say that, on balance, he thinks it is time the British people were consulted on this issue.
He could then campaign in favour of the Treaty.
79. “Can one read across anything from the FPTP results for the Scottish Parliament rather than looking back at 2005? ”
Blue Moon, you can try, but the different boundaries make it quite difficult to work out how some of those Westminster seats had voted in May 2007 (in some it’s easier..Dundee West was a SNP gain at Holyrood level and it would have been the same using Westminster boundaries…however would have SNP won it if a GE had taken place in May 2007? I don’t know, I think it would have been close..maybe Marcia being local can hazard a prediction of that “if” situation
Sean T
He’s already poured scorn on the idea; see GB in yesterday’s Hansard. No chance. He’s passionately against all referendums. He thought it was a disastrous error to promise one on the euro.
There were a few good old ding dongs on the previous thread. Wonder what poor old Lurker made of it?
Peter the P Come out come out wherever you are. What happened to Mighty Fella yesterday?
Btw, I’m not sure I particularly trust the Scottish yougov we had in June..I can’t see any reason to explain SSP at 5%
The economic backdrop does not favour waiting until 2008. All of the following are quite likely over the next 24 months:
i) A fall in the absolute value of house prices in large parts of the country (high interest rates; distress selling by amateur ‘buy to let’ landlords).
ii) Modest stock market declines as worries mount about debt financed transactions. Expect a few high profile corporate failures.
iii) Declining disposable income (interest rates; tax increases)
iv) Largely as a consequence of (iii), rising unemployment.
v) As a consequence of (iv), there will be increasing scrutiny of Labour’s ‘open door’ immigration policy. “Why is my Polish neighbour still in work when I don’t have a job?”
If Brown goes now, and wins a majority of 30 plus, he could reasonably hope to ride the economic cycle, and emerge five years later with Britain booming again. Courting the Lib Dems is a prudent contingency plan should his majority be wafer thin or non-existent. I believe GB is entirely reconciled to the possible necessity of power-sharing with Ming.
Cameron would be absolutely crucified if Brown went this autumn. Can you imagine the Paxman interview, which would inevitably press DC on policy specifics, which he would be unable to answer? If he did start giving specifics, this would be even worse, as inevitably another front bencher would be giving a different story to another journalist, whilst back benchers carped from the sidelines.
However, if GB does delay until 2008, there is every possibility that DC can draw some coherent policy strands from the various reviews, and if this is the case, he doesn’t lack in presentation skills.
I don’t buy the argument that party finances will stop GB going in 2007. The money will be found, especially if GB looks like a winner.
FWIW ( not a lot as the sample is small ) the stripped out Scotland figures in the last Mori poll had SNP at 22% in the Westminster voting intention - very much lower than their vote in May’s Holyrood elections .
Hmm for everyone wondering about the “odd” poll the Guardian produced Guido has just put out their now grovelling retraction:
“Thursday July 26, 2007
Corrections and clarifications
A chart showing David Cameron’s personal rating in a Guardian/ICM poll (front page, yesterday) contained several mistakes. It did not include those voters who said they liked both David Cameron and the Conservative party, and muddled some other figures. The correct figures are: likes Cameron, but not the party, 18%; likes Cameron and the party, 25%; doesn’t like Cameron, but does like the party, 26%; don’t know, 26%. Five per cent refused to answer. Voters were not asked if they did not like both Cameron and the party. We did not make clear that the chart showed figures for all voters, not just Conservative voters.”
“. I believe GB is entirely reconciled to the possible necessity of power-sharing with Ming.” I don’t. See 8
7: “Labour spinning that an October election won’t happen”? - not from me, I’ve been advocating it for some time, especially if the polls move a bit further. I think, though, that the dynamics of the situation are heading for next May as the most likely.
Btw, as SNP and Scotland have been mentioned, maybe someone can find interesting…Holyrood’s Labour defence list (seats with a under 20% majority) and what they held and what they lost
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth (2.1% over SNP)….Lab hold
Dumfries (3.4% over Con)….Lab hold
Kilmarnock & Loudoun (3.9% over SNP)….SNP gain
Dundee West (4.3% over SNP)….SNP gain
Glasgow Govan (5.8% over SNP)…SNP gain
Western Isles (5.8% over SNP)….SNP gain
Aberdeen Central (5.9% over SNP with LD not far behind)…Lab hold
Linlithgow (7.1% over SNP)….Lab hold
Renfrewshire West (8.8% over SNP with tories just behind)…Lab hold
Eastwood (9.5% over Con)…Lab hold
Edinburgh Central (9.5% over LD)…Lab hold
Stirling (9.7% over Con)….SNP gain
Paisley South (9.8% over SNP)…Lab hold
Fife Central (10.8% over SNP)….SNP gain
Cunninghame North (11.8% over SNP)…SNP gain
Livingston (12% over SNP)…SNP gain
Greenock & Inverclyde (12.7% over LD)…Lab hold
Glasgow Kelvin (14.9% over SNP)-…Lab hold
East Kilbride (15.5% over SNP)….Lab hold
Glasgow Pollok (15.5% over SSP)….Lab hold
Dunfermline West (16.2%)….LD gain
Clydebank & Milngavie (17.1% over SNP)….Lab hold
Edinburgh North & Leith (17.2% over SNP)…Lab hold
Paisley North (19.4% over SNP)….Lab hold
They lost 1 seat with a more than 20% majority: Edinburgh East (21.9% majority) to SNP
Nick You haven’t been spinning against October but there has been a lot of Labour spinning to the Press against the idea; from No 10 or wherever I know not but it’s convinced the lobby.
I’m not sure what dynamics you’re talking about; a lot depends on the polls in September surely. I can’t magine that the views of Labour MPs and candidates in the marginals will be completely ignored in the decision making process so I’ve always been impressed by your advocacy of the idea.
Ultimately though it’ll be up to GB and a lonely decision it will be. You can associate the Cabinet all you want but he’s the one who has to press the button. The point I’ve tried to get across on this site is that not going is also a decision; it’s one option closed off which might not look too clever by next Spring.
Yes Labour held some seats I would have expected the nats to pick up. The SNP ended up with a few unexpected gains from the Lib Dems to offset this.
92. “Yes Labour held some seats I would have expected the nats to pick up”
Aberdeen Central count was suspended at one point and so it was one of the last to declare…being half-asleep I forgot it was still undeclared and when the “Aberdeen Central: Lab Hold” tag popped up, I almost exclaimed “what?!”
Andrea.` Where these seats fought on new boundaries; in other words are the figures you’re quoting notional majorities? Sorry to be ignorant.
90. Big swing in Dunfermline West entirely due to By-Election momentum I would guess
BTW Similar scenario in Wales. I could easily see big Tory % gains in Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South, Gower & Newport West etc but given2005 start position highly likely still comfortableish Labour holds
94.”Where these seats fought on new boundaries; in other words are the figures you’re quoting notional majorities? Sorry to be ignorant. ”
Blue Moon, Scotland had a boundary review for Westminster elections pre-2005 GE and so 2005 GE was held on new boundaries and next GE will be held on same boundaries as 2005.
However Scottish Parliament elections are held on the old Wesminster boundaries (same boundaries used for 1999 and 2003 Holyrood elections)
Is it clear now? I understand that it can be a bit confusing…
In comment 76 (Lab seats with SNP second at Wesminster level) I quoted 2005 GE figures as those boundaries will be used again for next GE
In comment 90 I was mentioning Holyrood Lab defence list last May and so I used 2003 Holyrood election figures as the same boundaries were used
YOuGov poll in tomorrows Telegraph, Lab 41 Tories 32.
UGH very bad poll.
I guess the likelihood of an Oct poll just increased!
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/07/is-32-per-cent-.html
Roger only one Gordon away from never having to take stick from PtP again!
Punter I’m sure you’re right about Wales. I was just trying to work out whether the SNP breakthrough might have changed the game somewhat( by giving them far greater national-that is Scottish- credibility) and opened up the possibility of the SNP picking up a few Labour seats in an early election.
In other words is the Salmond bounce an argument against seeking to capitalise on the GB bounce or not?
Incidentally Antony Wells pours scorn on those pundits who kept pointing out polls measuring GB versus DC before the handover. It almost seems as if he’s targeting Mike to be honest. He says a bounce was absolutely inevitable and will be shortlived.
He argues that that rules out an October election but also, by implication( he doesn’t state this), a May 2008 election. I’m not sure I agree on the election timing point. The bounce might well last long enough for October but not necessarily for May 2008.
Sounds like key drivers on an early election decision, in no particular order, are polls, finances, activist readiness, momentum and willingness to risk.
Polls - looking good for Labour at the moment, with balance of probabilities suggesting that they will be heading downwards rather than upwards.
Finances - clearly not great, but if everything else is right, they’d surely raise what they needed.
Activists - membership is down, councillors lost, and an emphasis on tele-canvassing coming in to replace the troops on the ground. But has Brown encouraged potential door-knockers back to the party? My guess is yes, as much as anything as Labour looks more like winning than it has for a while.
Momentum - all labour right now.
Willingness to risk - nil. This is Gordon Brown remember?
So the factors do seem to be swinging behind going early, and if GB can be convinced that it isn’t any more a risk than any other option, I can see him going for it. The ‘why now?’ question would be muted as the opposition have called for an early GE. So he’s probably best to go for it, and neither the LDs and Tories would be likely to be at their best, although the LDs have been making contingency plans for some time.
What is the earliest possible date for a general election? Could Gordon go to Buck House tomorrow?
Test Thanks, well actually no thanks! Have you read the piece in Conservative Home entitled ‘why we need to stop an October election and not change the Leader’. It’s very good.
Great Poll. 41% FORTY ONE!!
Nearly at Rogers 10%… What odd would you have got for this back in May.
82 The Holyrood seats fought in May were the same Westminster boundaries from 1997. The 2005 Dundee West election should have been neutral with the addition of some of the south western villages from Angus East and taking the central part of Dundee from Dundee East. In Dundee East with the losing of the central part to Dundee West it helped by taking in Monifieth and Carnoustie from Angus East. The previous boundaries helped Labour in the past but the election in May threw that idea away by the SNP polling 45% in Dundee West and nearly 50% in Dundee East. If Labour did lose the odd couple of seats up here they have to make sure the Tories or Libs don’t take away their Southern marginals either. I only threw in that statement as a few seats could worry Labour, Dundee West, Ochil/South Perthshire, Kilmarnock. The SNP only spent £192k at the last WGE. I expect the spend next time will be far greater. Alas our campaign for Westminster has already started here in Dundee
no rest for the wicked.
100 No way. Maybe maybe they could pick off 2-3 but after that look at the % required, it would take Labour meltdown for serious damage to happen. Can’t see it in one election. I am however in agreement with Sean Fear on one point yu will pick up these seats in Wales Aberconwy and Cardiff North barring a Labour Landslide of course!
97 What Lib Dems at? Their usual implausible 12% I suspect
any where it pitches the LDs
105. “I only threw in that statement as a few seats could worry Labour, Dundee West, Ochil/South Perthshire, Kilmarnock”
well, yes, Ochil naturally + the other 2 under 20% majorities.
But after that I find it difficult to see Labour losing other seats to SNP unless Labour is set for a defeat overall.
idea even
With interest rates still very much on the way up and an Autumn poll (historically bad news for Governments) it would be very brave, even a bit foolhardy to go the the country now.
I think Brown will wait; just a few weeks longer to make sure that poll lead is holding up …. and wait …… and just wait a couple of months more….. and …. and then, and then his poll lead will be drifting away and the moment will have passed.
The best strategy in the world still needs a leader with spirit to enact it and Brown is not that leader.
Blue Moon, don’t blame the bearer of bad news.
I still don’t think he’ll go but obviously it makes it more likely.
Real election results just do not bear these numbers out, so, bad poll but no panic!
Will SNP put up MSPs for Wesminster fights? That would be interesting as they would at least partly cut incumbency power for the sitting MP
These polls are just awesome! The more people see of Brown the more they like him. Surely Labour will be hitting 50% or more by mid August. Go now, Gordon. Finish the Tories off for good!
These are not “opinion polls” - no opinions are involved as most people don’t have any, these are “fashion statements”. It’s as simple as that.
110. I agree. My feeling is Brown willneed to be abslutely certain, by which I mean through the autumn into Spring. I still believe we’relooking at 2009. I would be surprised but not shocked at 2008 poll leads permitting, but I’d be amazed at 2007. GB is an attritional politician, he’ll want 6 months to try and grind Cameron into the dust first. The hubbub on the weekend may encourage him in this. But see 8 anyway
108 - Neither do I, but would I have believed it a year ago for the SNP to win 21 FPTP seats in May? If I believed that then, husband would had me committed as suffering from delusions! I remember after the Dunfermline by-election the voices of doom from the resident LD’s on this site that the SNP would had no hope in May and will lose seats like Inverness etc . Ho hum - things do change - some unexpectedly. Motto - never give up your delusions.
112 -not a chance
Labour last had a 9% lead with YouGov in July 2005. Prior to that you have to go back to late 2002 and the aftermath of the IDS ‘Quiet Man’ speech.
If tommorow’s YouGov poll is right that’s bad but without panicking I guess it’s margin of error stuff and in line with the rest. When was the fieldwork carried out? Am I right in thinking we’ll get a few more polls this week and then a famine for a while?
I would say how on earth can people still keep voting for this government but with Gordons barage of headline grabbing gimmicks, stolen Tory ideas and the BBC/Media love in at the moment it’s hardly surprising. Im fairly sure It’ll wear thin and the bounce will come to its inevitable end, hopefully before an early election should one come. Let the Labour posters enjoy it but they should take heed from the Major takeover in 1990
I was pleased to see Gisela Stuart criticising the government on their blatent disregard of democracy and failure to uphold their promise of a referendum. Will we get any others speaking out I wonder?
116. ” I remember after the Dunfermline by-election the voices of doom from the resident LD’s will lose seats like Inverness etc”
I think the Inverness troubles talks lasted until the polls closed
Punter.
Being absolutely sure means risking blowing the opportunity. What if the bounce is down to 4-5 points next Spring? Alternatively if GB doesn’t go early with leads of this sort in September and ‘enjoys his two years’ as a previous poster and then loses he’ll be remembered as the PM who blew it. He badly, badly wants to win his own election.
Also did anyone else see David Cameron on Midlands Today this evening out and about in Worcestershire? I thought he came across very well and genuinely seemed concerned with ensuring better management and was out and about addressing peoples concerns.
What a contrast to the PM who rather than donning his wellies flew over the affected areas and hasn’t appeared (I maybe wrong) to be talking to the ordinary men and women on the street.
I was glad to see he got some airtime (shame it wasn’t national!), was able to re-iterate he was in Whitney for two days before Rwanda and he even got a live interview. I bet the BBC did that through gritted teeth!
121 See 8
123 I’ve answered that point. Read my post!
Assuming the Lib Dems are still on 15% (as they were in the last YouGov poll), put these results in Baxter and you get a Labour majority of 134 with the Lib Dems left with only 20 MPs. Wow! So it looks like talk of a coalition with Ming is now over as the Libs will be a majorly insignificant party after the next GE.
Brown simply cannot do anything other than go for October, anything else is a lack of nerve. I’ve put a decent amount on a 2007 election, surely he won’t bodge this opportunity?
If labour gets a 10 point lead can i request 10 pictures of roger instead of gordon with the words:
Britain’s top tipster above it
54. “The utterly splendid Gisela Stuart! Not only a onetime Labour minister..”
Correction - the utterly risible Gisela Stuart. Once a Labour minister, and never again…
Gisela is one of the minority of ultra-Blairites who has moved to the extreme right in the last couple of years. She caused considerable mirth among Labour parliamentarians when she rooted for George W Bush at his last election. She is one of the two Labour MPs – the other being Denis MacShane, the sacked Europe minister - who is a signatory of the far right, slightly sinister, Henry Jackson Society.
He would be much too polite to say so, but I can’t imagine that Gordon gives a toss about what Gisela has to say about the EU, or indeed any other subject.
If Brown doesn’t go then there is more than a good chance that that lead will be eaten in to and the headlines will change to ‘Brown honeymoon over’. He is in charge but does he want to take control of his destiny?
125. I think Baxter tends to be a bit over-zealous in it’s culling of Lib Dem MPs at the next election. Experience tells us that they seem to do well with the power of the incumbent and manage to hold on (local factors at play) so I very much doubt there will be as few as that. Anthony Well’s swing calculator probably does a better job at predicting the Lib Dem total.
110
Marcus dear chap, you’ll be delighted to know, that as the Tories are to announce that Cornwall is to have its own minister, In the event of you taking Torbay, (lucky people) I’ve nominated you as minister for Devon. As for your predictions about GB’s intentions, your predictions of what would happen when GB became PM I think you’ll admit were somewhat wide of the mark. If that yougov poll that someone mentioned, is correct, don’t go putting your mortgage on there not being an autumn poll.
P.S. that yougov poll, if anyone knows where, ‘test’ lives, suggest they pop round and remove the tablets from the bedroom cabinet and anything with a cutting edge from the kitchen drawer.
Very good poll for Gordon Brown, but what has really shocked me has been just how unbalanced the press reporting has been. Seriously, as someone who reads the political websites and who follows the Conservative party I have still found myself going to check that I have got my facts right because of some of the flaky reporting. I mean if I rely on just one source of information like a news channel I would be voting Brown in a poll on the back of some pretty favourable and at times very unbalanced reporting.
Andy Coulson has got his work cut out for him over the next few months.
Sorry SeanT, but I am beginning to sound as obsessed as you once you get a particular issue between your teeth.
124 Have you? It’s all about risks and rewards. He wants a place in History a 60ish majority gives him that for 2-3 years Red Moon. There is a 50/50 chance of a slashed majority/hung parliament. Technically by your light hed have won. But won’t he be equally look on as the man who blew a comfortable Majority in three months for a limping shambolic administration. Now of course it might come off, it might be a glorious victory, but given I think he still fancies his chances against DC in 2 years+, I don’t think he’ll be in a great rush to risk that very fat majority. In Jan 2008 if they’re still polling 6-9% maybe. But this year, well it’d be out of synch with everything he’s ever done. Could it happen, yes, probably I’d say not
130 I actually think that this poll doesn’t increase the chances of an early election. It’s the polls in September that matter. What it does do is explode the idea that Mike hangs onto that all publicity is good publicity for DC and by extension for the Tories. He made the same argument about Tony Lit.
But those who are ruling out an October election are in complete denial.
132. Iain Dale has more about concerns at the Daily Mail.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/07/mail-staff-to-rebel-against-pro-brown.html
I watched Quentin Letts a couple of nights ago on the sky news paper review and he actually said that there “was some really shoddy journalism going on regarding Cameron”.
And when I say Labour has started targeting Tory marginals, nobody believes me? (plaintive look) I see the City punters on Cantor Spreadfair are still betting on 50 Tory gains - wonder how long that’ll last.
To be fair I think this is the Tory Rwanda splosh (the opposite of a bounce) - people contrasted the two leaders’ reactions to the floods and responded accordingly. But I expect a lead of 6-7% to be sustained over the summer: people are making up their minds that DC isn’t really a budding PM and he’ll need to do a lot to change that.
128:
Strange isn’t it? I remember when Stuart and MacShane, feted by the BBC and others, were the very embodiment of wholesome, liberal, new Labour pro-Europeanism. Now you say (and who am I to doubt it) that they’re a pair of scary neo-con zealots. How times change.
131.
“I’ve nominated you as minister for Devon.”
and Rik W is Shadow Secretary of State for Runnymede!
ChrisD.
The coverage is awful and Littlejohn stuck the boot in about Rwanda as well, Dale is wrong. Andy Coulson will urgently be talking to the Mail in the near future, I have no doubt.
132. “Andy Coulson has got his work cut out for him over the next few months.”
The Newstatesman (Kevin Maguire’s column) had a rumour last week about Coulson not wanting to speak with Dinky anymore! Shameful behaviour, no-one can be so insolent towards Dinky!
Punter I think we could have done without the Red moon bit; bit silly. I thought you were a neutral? I call things as I see them .
137:
…but then again Blair himself turned into a scary neo-con zealot, so perhaps they were just following their hero.
Defection Alert:
Blue Moon is Red Moon..he has defected to Labour bringing Lab at 41% in the polls!
141 It was a small jibe at your annoyance at 124 Red as in annoyed not Labour
139.Bluemoon, I am as partisan as the next poster on this site. You won’t see me criticising Cameron any more than I would expect Nick Palmer to do the same with Gordon Brown.
I am beginning to sound like a broken record stuck in a groove over the last few days, if we get a bad press over a mistake fair enough we take it on the nose and deal with it. But when I am seeing such blatant misreporting or inaccuracies being passed off as fact I am really worried.
I have highlighted a few on the news and Guido had another pointed out in the Guardian. These are serious mistakes and everyone should be concerned because at the end of the day politics is in enough trouble and this just debases it further.
Punter Fair enough but I wasn’t particularly annoyed. None of us can see each other typing so it’s hard to tell sometimes I suppose!
146.I sometimes think ConHom could do with allowing the odd smiley to lighten the mood.
Yes it’s all the press! Some of you tory fools were confidently predicting no brown bounce. Wrong. Election in the coming weeks over a weekend. Labour majority up. Bye bye dave.
132. completely agree!
136. Nick, despite party differences your posts are always a welcome read. They’re balanced, thoughtful, logical and you always “write what you see”, then I wouldn’t expect anything less from a fellow mathematician =)