Is the detail from ICM a life-line for Cameron?
July 26th, 2007
Should the Guardian’s pollster have followed the Mori approach?
Reproduced above is the detailed finding from the Guardian’s ICM poll that was played big by the paper yesterday and which has sent shock waves throughout the Tory party. It also has been covered extensively in other parts of the media and was the main reason why William Hill opened its “next Tory leader” market.
Yet looking at the options that were put respondents were not offered the chance in both cases of saying “I don’t like the leader and I don’t like the party”.
It does not seem plausible that such a high proportion of non-Tory supporters, - a total of 38% of Labour and 39% of the Lib Dems - were ready to say they liked the Tory party but not the leader or that they liked both. This is hard to credit. The proportion is almost the same with Tory supporters when they gave their view of Labour.
Also a massive 68% of Labour voters were ready to say that they either liked Cameron or the Tories or both. This compares with 53% of the Tory voters who were ready to say the same of Labour and Brown. Eh?
There’s no getting away from the fact that the finding from Tory voters is not good for Cameron but it would have been a lot more damaging if the same response had come if the question had been asked with a full range of options.
I cannot recall a similar question being asked before by ICM and the nearest I can find from another pollster is this from Mori two months ago. The pollster did not provide a party break down but as can be seen the option of not liking either the party and the leader was put.
From the way I read this the Mori questioning was a lot more coherent.
Whatever the ICM outcome is not good for David Cameron but the finding would have a lot more credibility, surely, if the pollster had followed the Ipsos-Mori approach?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
That is completely bizarre. The only plausible possibility that I can think of is that the option of disliking both was in the survey question, but factored out of the answers published (with the percentages being inflated upwards to compensate). The implausible possibility is that they didn’t include the option in the first place. If the former, it’s a cock-up on the publication front; if the latter, the whole survey is completely meaningless.
John well done on your election effort. OT has anyone ever compiled a list of looney policies that have been adopted eventually by government. I think that they can stake a claim to votes for 18 year olds and 24 hour drinking.
The reactionary Sun also seems to be throwing a lifeline to backing Cameron’s PMQ
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2007340484,00.html
The best leader the Tories have had, Cameron is more like a Socialist leader. Someone I could vote for. Only the right wing press and red nosed Carlton Club dinosaurs dont like him.
The attacks on Cameron were initiated by Rupert Murdoch according to Stephan Sheakespeare who was told three weeks or so ago by a Murdoch editor that Murdoch had decided to be rid of Cameron and replace him with Hague. This coincided with the Brown takeover and with Cameron strongly resisting the EU Constitution.
The only polling organisation to provide hopeful polls to Brown after the by-elections was ICM Guardian. The first poll was a survey which did not ask about voting intention. The questions were 1. which party did you vote for at the election and 2. which party do you feel warmest to now? From these answers, voting intention was deduced.
The results look odd as ‘others’ has been awarded 9%. Most other polls find others on around 15%. At Sedgefiled, others were on 20%. At Southall where the voting mix is not as typical, others were on 10%.
Judging by the obvious bias in the most recent poll focused entirely on Cameron, not even asking anyone if they liked Cameron and the Conservative Party, it would not be unreasonable to deduce that ICM Guardian’s recent polling has become blinded by the need to ramp up the pressure on Cameron.
The BBC has clearly been running the narrative about Cameron’s trip to Rwanda being a wrong move. His time spent in his Constituency beforehand visiting flood-affected people - two days - was not even reported. The media bias in this country and the blatant attempt to unseat yet another Conservative leader by providing effective lies to suit, is downright pathetic.
If there 2 letters written to the 1922, one would be Bercow who is usually to the fore in these media coordinated games. The other could be Ken Clarke, or another Europhile. If the pro-European conspiracy cannot unseat Cameron this time, they will probably try again in a few months time. If I was a Conservative eurosceptic doubting Cameron’s strength of will to fight on my behalf, I would be feeling most encouraged by Cameron. Not from what he’s telling me himself so much, but from what the stealth enemies of Britain and our democracy are trying to do to Cameron.
Am I missing something - why would you say you would vote for a party if you disliked both it and its leader?
An interesting view from beyond our planet…
Re 4. “The attacks on Cameron were initiated by Rupert Murdoch according to Stephan Sheakespeare who was told three weeks or so ago by a Murdoch editor that Murdoch had decided to be rid of Cameron and replace him with Hague.”
If thats true I am seriousley pi$$ed off. Who the hell does murdoch think he is. Wheather cameron is leader of the tories is a matter for paid up tory members - If they want him they keep him - if they don’t they don’t.
Its nothing to do with anyone else let alone that idiot - oh for the days when ban ownership of newspapers by non british citizens also how about only being allowed to won one paper.
7 - don’t worry red flag - it’s all bound up in Tapestry’s “Murdoch is the conscious driving force for a United States of Europe” theory. Note he apparently wants to replace him with Hague, who is now thought of as a rabid pro-European!
A confusing question will produce a confused answer. In a political opinion poll, the only question that matters is, ‘Who do you intend to vote for at the next GE’ all the rest are pointless.
Party leaders, people blow hot and cold, and can be influenced by a good or bad PMQ, or some other event, involving the party leader still fresh in their minds.How much does the party leader influence the vote, Wilson was always more popular than Heath, but Heath won in ‘70. I can remember the delight that a friend and Labour political activist, (later a Labour MP) welcomed the election of Margaret Thatcher (as party leader) ‘No one will vote for that bloody awful woman’(Ho Ho) at the time, Callaghan was by far the more popular party leader: events dear boy events!
8. alex. thanks for your vote of confidence. See the Stephan Sheakespeare column on CH. Black and white. Reported before the anti-Cameron moves began, and it seeemd curious at the time. Murdoch drove the get rid of IDS campaign in october 2003. He or someone thinks he can do it all again on Cameron. It’s not as easy now as more people are sceptical of media reporting, and Cameron can string a few words together.
Cameron may well come out of this debacle much stronger. He continues to outperform Brown at PMQs (in itself not that important but crucial to party morale)and to be honest his views on EU treaty, border force, phone-tap evidence and social breakdown register well with grass roots. The Tory party will rally round him as the rebels are clearly out of step with opinion inside the party.
I preferred your earlier, non-partisan headline, Mike. DC doesn’t need a “lifeline”. He has party backing through and through minus a handful of malcontents.
These were voodoo questions and a rubbish poll.
You pointed out there was summat wrong yesterday, and even Nick Palmer conceded this section of the findings should be ignored.
test’s idea of a ‘rubbish poll’ being one that doesn’t give the Tories at least a 10% lead!
Odd question options I agree - but overall significance negligible. It’s been interesting seeing what the issues have been from much further away over the past few weeks.
Firstly, the by-elections didn’t seem to register, compared to the floods. Although they probably would have done had Labour lost one.u
Secondly, I’m not sure many people noticed Cameron in Rwanda. However there were plenty of shots of him in his wellies in Witney town centre, so I wouldn’t have thought that his going away will do any damage.
Interestingly, the story that people I’ve been speaking to have picked up on is the drugs one, the possibility of reclassifying cannabis, and making former drug use a criterion for cabinet memebership.
So no surprise things are going OK for GB so far, but he’s hardly shone while dealing with the floods.
Although Ming hasn’t exactly grabbed headlines, what he has been saying and doing has been good - 4p cut in tax rate paid for in green taxes, visiting Hull to see how the clean-up operation is being carried out etc.
Talking of polls Tory posters had better scurry along to the Mail website, they are running a poll on DC’s leadership its running 75% failure to 25% success.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/pollsanddebates/pollsanddebates.html?in_page_id=2006
To make it easy for you!
My God look at the labour figures. How come ICM Guardian found these figures gave a story about the Conservatives? 52% of Conservatives like both leader and party. Only ahem 13% of labour voters do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And while 3% of Conservatives like their leader but not their party, 25% of Labour voters do and don’t!!!!!!!!!!!!
This suggests a story about labour self-loathing, and Conservative contentment. Amazing the media is so biassed that they produce a story of Conservative discontent from these figures.
They are getting really tiresome these Gordian scribblers. Why don’t they just calm down, and start writing something sensible? They’re destroying their own credibility by the day with their fixed polls and assenine assessments.
When I write pro-Cameron on comments in nationals it rarely gets on. Don’t believe a word of the Mail’s propaganda. It’s all lies, I’m afraid and ashamed to say…ashamed because I am British and I used to be proud of our media. But really it’s become a joke now.
17 Tapestry, you say that you were once PROUD of our media?
16. “My God look at the labour figures. How come ICM Guardian found these figures gave a story about the Conservatives? 52% of Conservatives like both leader and party. Only ahem 13% of labour voters do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
I may be mis-reading and I’m happy to be corrected but that table seems to say that 75% of Labour supporters like both the party and the leader.
It also seems that it was correctly reported yesterday that only 42% of Conservative supporters like Cameron. I can’t see how offering Conservative supporters the option of “don’t like either” would have effected this. It doesn’t look like a particularly confusing question to me.
Of more cheer to the Tories is this story about party funding:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/funding/story/0,,2134805,00.html
The figures are obviously for financial year 2006 when the Tories looked more united and likely to win than they do now and donations may, very well have fallen. Nevertheless, they have a surplus of more than £4m as some sort of insurance against an early election.
I’d be interested some time in hearing Mike’s opinion regarding Gordon Brown’s fundraising potential. He may be swinging the swingers, but can he pull back his big guns? (Translation: soft labour support is returning but will the big donors be coming back as well?) It doesn’t look immediately obvious to me he that he will.
Also, repeated from last night, congrats to Mike on a nice little review in Prospect
17
When you were proud of our ‘media’ tapestry was that when, (the printed media certainly) was dominated by Tory press barons. I should think you were really proud of it, when the Murdoch press destroyed Kinnock, carried out campaigns of villification against Benn,Livingstone and the looney left in general, I’ll bet you were really proud of it then. The press today, only likes winners, it may give general support to a political party, but being a winner is more important. That and the fact that it no longer sees Labour as a threat to its ‘interests’Labour has been ‘defanged’
16 Tapestry , you are not reading the figures correctly . Only 52% of Conservatives like both Cameron and the Party , 75% of Labour supporters like both Brown and the Labour Party . 42% of Conservatives like the Conservative Party but not Cameron .
These are pretty much IDS level figures for Cameron , those who wielded the knife to depose IDS were not regarded as traitors to the Party nor should those who would speak out about Cameron .
16 - when a party is back to its core vote, its core vote often remain very satisfied. When it reaches beyond the core vote, some of the core vote will be less satisfied, but still vote for them.
A very satisfied core vote suggests a narrow church failing to reach out.
Your theories about Clarke and Bercow being behind the letters are simply ridiculous. The Europhiles are so small in the Tory party now that they know they could never mount a challenge. Clarke and Bercow are perceptive politicians who have some sense of awareness; unlike the deluded reactionary right who think Paki jokes are acceptable.
You ideas about Murdoch replacing Cameron with Hague are far more plausible. If true, he’s a bit of a git, that Murdoch.
SBS. You don’t understand that Tapestry has uncovered a dastardly plot by two secret agents of the conspiracy for a federal europe; Murdoch and William Hague. I’m not making this up; it’s on his website if you scroll back a few days. Complete nutter, I’m afraid.
23 - bear in mind Tapestry knows Romano Prodi is a KGB spy, and that the Pakistani cricket team did murder Bob Woolmer. It’s all on the blog.
Tapestry - has Inzaman been round to see you yet? We do worry when you don’t post for a day or two.
We should not forget, that Hague worked for an American consultancy firm with strong links to the dear old CIA. Hague has always been firm in his acceptance of the Neocon view of the world. Murdoch is always on the look out, for those who he thinks are weak in their defence of Western (U.S.) interests, if he believes they are a weak link in the chain, he is not above using his undoubted political strength, to ‘remove them’ in fact he would see it as his duty to do so. With anti-US feeling rising even amongst the UK right because of the Iraq war, Murdoch will be even more vigilant.
16. 25. This blog is really going downhill.
As I said on last night’s thread, this particular question seems so severely slanted or misreported for all parties that it’s best ignored, and I agree with Mike that any conclusions for DC drawn from it are likely to be unsound. We should get another Mori one in due course that we can compare with the last one: that’ll show how far opinion has shifted, or not, as a result of his recent problems.
O/T: there was some surprise and scepticism when I mentioned that Labour MPs in safe seats are being asked to include Tory marginals as well as Labour marginals when they help out. I’m surprised anyone is surprised (and I approve even though it represents some diversion from just helping seats like mine).
Either we have an early election or we don’t. If we do, it’ll be because the polls look healthier than in 2005, and if so it would be mad only to fight it on a defensive basis, so that the best possible result is no change. If we don’t, then there’s plenty of time to refocus only on Labour marginals.
Some Tory posters seem to think that the only possible outcomes are Labour losing a bit and Labour losing a lot, but politics is not that predictable, and Labour’s success since 1997 has been based partly on MPs keeping their heads and making cool-headed assessments. We are preparing for a possible election - unlikely but conceivable in October, very possibly in May (for punters, there may be some value in the ‘Gordon Brown weeks’ market on Cantor Spreadfair, which is predicting well over a year to the next election). Meanwhile, the Tories are angrily studying each others’ navels: that’s a good argument for going early, in my humble opinion, since they really don’t look quite ready for power.
coldstone.
Whatever else he is Murdoch is not an agent of the conspiracy for a federal europe( whatever that is), as I’m sure you’d agree. Despite being a US citizen he has always been a vehement enemy of the EU. It seems that his motivation is the impediment that it represents to his ever burgeoning business interests; ie the competence which the EU has over competition policy. If he really wishes to replace DC with Hague it will be because he considers him likely to be a more effective leader than DC. In any case he will be disappointed in that wish because DC will certainly carry the Conservative flag into the next GE.
Interesting article Mike, though the graphic in the printed paper that Guido reproduces is funny as well with no one liking both the party and the leader!
26
But I don’t accept all the ‘European stuff’, but it is amazing, that the ‘Right’ are now seeing Murdoch as a ‘threat’ Back in the 80/90’s it was the so called ‘looney left’ that were always going on about Murdoch. Chris Mullen’s ‘A Very British Coup’ for instance has a Murdoch figure who is instrumental in organising a coup against a ‘Left wing Labour government’
I wouldn’t try to paint Murdoch as a ‘Schwabe’ type figure, but there is no doubt, he has a political agenda.
got that wrong about labour on 13%. chart is hard to read IMO.
pleased to challenge your thinking on so many issues.
Evidence that Prodi was KGB spy was Litvinenko, pre-assassination, declared in the European Parliament by Gerard Batten MEP Ukip.
As for Woolmer murder, I’d like to hear from the original West Indian who carried out the post-mortem. They’ve been disappeared from view. The Chief of Police has not spoken either. It could be in shame because they got it wrong, but I feel more inclined to think that there is no political advantage in humiliating Pakistan right now with so many tensions around Afghanistan and that the true story has been swept under the carpet for convenience. That would no doubt be a very sensible decision to take, but in my own thoughts, I am not convinced by the not-murdered narrative.
So who is Tapestry? If he has a site, presumably those in the know know precisely who he is? I gather he is a “he” from what I have now read. A link to his blog, anyone? Sorry, people will be thinking I am Inzamam or someone myself!
I do enjoy reading plenty of posts from Tapestry and his like - but it really is not good for my blood pressure!
Tim13 I don’t know whether Tapestry’s a he or not. Just click on his moniker and you’ll get through.
I thought this was a site about political betting, not bizarre conspiracy theories about EU agents infiltrating every strata of society and corrupting our British ways with their foulness.
27, Nick, the news that Labour MPs are being asked to help out in Tory marginals is good news for the Tories as you are spreading your diminished resources even more thinly. Nick you lost another 8% of your Members last year and you have 1,000 (1/6th) fewer councillors than GE05.
35 Houndtang, you obviously weren’t around a few months ago for the Great “David Icke and the Shape Shifting Green Lizards” Debate.
Gosh! polls to the left of us, polls to the right of us.
Heaven for political geeks, (sad creatures) here’s another one, with a link to the full results, corrrr look at the percentages on that!
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/exclusive+tories+virtually+unchanged/564702
36 And how many members did the Conservatives lose last year , they are the only major party not to put membership figures in their annual accounts , They have certainly dropped below 250,000 but how many below ?
Sorry to rise to the bait, but just in case anyone needs reminding what Murdoch has said about Europe, see here.
40
A very timely reminder, tapestry is way off the mark on the European issue, but Stelzer is Murdoch’s representative on Earth, and we all know his views: don’t we?
Murdoch professes eurosceptic views. He manoevres to support europhile leaders like Blair, Brown, Major. He keeps in with the EU as they are in charge of Competition rules inside the EU.
He manoevres against eurosceptic leaders - IDS, Cameron notably - although Cameron plays a double game, as he’s seen what happens to openly eurosceptic leaders.
Kinnock was obviously europhile but labour were not as good a bet as Conservative at that moment for the EU. The Conservative europhiles had assassinated Maggie, and they held the reins then.
39. This is the main block to an early election - Tory finances are much healthier than Labour’s.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/funding/story/0,,2134805,00.html
Theer are some corrections to their reporting in today’s Guardian:
“A chart showing David Cameron’s personal rating in a Guardian/ICM poll (front page, yesterday) contained several mistakes. It did not include those voters who said they liked both David Cameron and the Conservative party, and muddled some other figures. The correct figures are: likes Cameron, but not the party, 18%; likes Cameron and the party, 25%; doesn’t like Cameron, but does like the party, 26%; don’t know, 26%. Five per cent refused to answer. Voters were not asked if they did not like both Cameron and the party. We did not make clear that the chart showed figures for all voters, not just Conservative voters.”
Some fairly major errors there, but at least they have clarified them, including the main issue identified above - that there was no possible answer for those who did not like both the leader and the party.
26 Tess Kingham (former Labour MP for Gloucester) left politics because of “too much willy-jousting” (brilliant phrase).
A meaningless poll always brings out the moistened tips of the willy jousters.
So, unsurprisingly, the beginning of this thread contains very tiresome willy jousting from some of the most predictable jousters (coldstone in the red colours, test in blue and mark senior in orange).
Perhaps a pb prize for the most redoutable willy-jousting? Who should get it? And what should the prize be?
I’ve just done the Boris Johnson quiz on Channel 4 news website, I got 9 out of ten, Oh God! I’m off to get a life.
43
if party financing held the Labour Party back from calling a GE, they’d never call one.
For those who can’t manage the link, Tapestry is indeed male. He was a UKIP candidate in 2001, rejoined the Tories to pursue a vendetta against Michael Portillo and in the Philippines part of the year. Whether it’s a large enough part is not for me to say.
For those who can’t manage the link, Tapestry is indeed male. He was a UKIP candidate in 2001, rejoined the Tories to pursue a vendetta against Michael Portillo and lives in the Philippines part of the year. Whether it’s a large enough part is not for me to say.
Re 46, Coldstone, “if party financing held the Labour Party back from calling a GE, they’d never call one.”
Actually in 1997 and 2001 I understand party finances were in very good health.
[47][48] Don’t you just hate it when you spot a typo after hitting the “send” button?
I’m the innocent abroad.
[51] And guilty as charged here
Sir Ming is now quoting odds….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6916122.stm
45
A look through any of my posts, I think you’ll find very little actually supporting the present government. The gross over optimism of some Tory posters does however bring out the worse in me, and that’s some worse. On the question of who’ll win the next GE, if Labour go early, ‘them’ the longer they leave it the less likely that becomes. Unlike test and co. I’m no cheer leader, I try to see things as they are, If Labour were well behind in the polls at this stage, (or at any stage I wouldn’t be pretending otherwise) I go where the evidence leads me, E.A.C. Evidence, Analysis, Conclusion, the empirical tradition, the only belief I have, (I may afford myself a preference, but thats all) I don’t believe in political parties any longer, they are now redundant,TB proved that. I have a preference for an attitude if you like, which is I suppose, a wishy washy, sort of lefty way of doing things, (not unlike most of the British people really) although on law and order, I’m very anti-drugs and have no time for Seant’s ‘feckless libertarianism’ (witty and amusing though he is) very family values me. I’ve always thought that Libertariansim is a lot like Marxism in one respect, ‘Looks good on paper’ I think people who join political parties, ( I did once, it was awful) are odd, and have doubts as to what their real motives are.
31 - don’t get me started on Litvinenko! There are conspiracy theories on all sides.
We seem to have entered a fallow period in terms of political bets. Since 2005 we have enjoyed a GE, two leadership elections, a deputy leadership election, some interesting by-elections and local elections. There is little on the horizon at home. So that may be why this site seems a little weird and off-topic at the moment.
Abroad the US elections seem a long way away. All eyes on the Russian elections. Are the markets up and running still? I will be posting on the leading runners and riders at some time.
27 Nick, I admire your political optimism, which matches my own. FWIW I agree that Gordon should go now vs the spring, but he hasn’t the bottle.
27 Nick, I admire your political optimism, which matches my own.
Need I say more!
OT. 10Bet are still offering odds of 1.15/1 on Labour having most seats at the next GE. Betfair price currently 0.72/1.
44. The correction is less than helpful. As other have pointed out, there’s no point in asking Labour’s opinion of DC as distinct from the Conservative party without allowing them to say that they like neither.
But the important figure stands if you set aside Labour and Liberal supporters for a moment and see that Conservative voters were asked:
1. Do you like DC but not the Conservative party.
2. Do you like both
3. Do you dislike DC but like the Conservative party.
It’s hardly a confusing question! And the fact that 42% said that they dislike DC can’t be ignored or swept under the carpet.
This for Andrea (can you help him): From Steve Richards in todays Independent
“When a frustrated shadow cabinet member, Alan Duncan, asked Cameron recently about the leadership’s wider strategic purpose, he was told the goal was “social responsibility”.
My italics (I hope)
Link below - BTW I thought the Independent made you pay to read it online. Seems nobody paid so they have made it free again. This means I can read Alan Watkins again - as an Observer reader still miss him!
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_m_z/steve_richards/article2802600.ece
So Sir Ming does not buy the Crosby Theory!
“Sir Menzies said his message to Lib Dem members was to “hold your nerve”.
He said he did not expect there to be a hung parliament, telling journalists the British public always tended to go one way or the other.”
re 26 & 45
what with young guido coming over all ‘tired & emotional’ (due,in part, to nipper-induced sleep-deprivation) and mrs.dale only just back from his hols. it seem some of their usual hot-heads,swots & bullies ect. have spilled over from their comment threads.
dale is on the Daily Politics at noon, so it should quieten down after then…
44 Andy Coulson already on the Guardian’s case it seems.
Guido has an interesting snippet about the hole the LibDem finances are in.
http://www.order-order.com/2007/07/libdem-auditors-think-24m-fraud-funds.html
And the Telegraph has a piece about Brown backing down from his spin about being tough on Sudan on Darfur. That is a serious and tragic softening.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/26/wdarfur126.xml
Just so, Test (61). I tend to agree with him. Either Labour or Lib Dem. A straight fight. Tories third, as at Southall, Sedgefield and elsewhere.
The Sun is really hammering Brown on Europe. Two editorials in two days basically calling him a traitor.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the euroscepticism of Murdoch and his newspapers is undiluted, ferocious and heartfelt. Likewise the Daily Mail etc. Those who think otherwise are deluded.
They will undoubtedly line up behind the Tories, come an election, if GB doesn’t grant a referendum. Labour are trying to hold the line, but it is cracking, and the full give-us-a-referendum campaign hasn’t even kicked off yet (watch for cinema ads come September).
The pro-referendum forces are well-funded and well-organised. They cracked Blair, I think they will crack Brown. Not least because Brown is actually going back on a manifesto promise: this is an outrageous breach of trust, and a betrayal of everything he claims to stand for. Blair just folded cause of the pressure. Brown is in danger of looking like a devious, lying traitor.
If Brown insists on not granting a vote, this is a strong argument against a 2008 G/E. May next year will see the EU debate at its height. Impossibly bad timing.
I don’t understand why Brown just doesn’t grant a vote. He could get it over with in six weeks, yes he’d lose but he could then move on. And he would be seen as a man of seriousness and integrity, who did the right thing. The papers would love him, and he’d shoot the last Tory fox. He’d then sweep to power in the next G/E.
Sure he’d annoy a few people in Brussels, but that’s never been a big vote-loser in the UK.
Just get on with it, Broon.
Test. You might be interested in an excellent article on Conservative Home entitled ‘we need to stop an autumn election not change leader.’ It encapsulates my views exactly.
Guido would say that, Witan (64). He’s been saying it for ages. Nothing new there.
What he (and you) have missed in your enthusiasm is the statement (also in the Boundary Comission’s publication) that the legal advice is that the Lib Dems have nothing to be worried about - but obviously the accountants are playing safe.
Calm down, Witan.
Answering the original question, The only life line for Cameron is TINA. Look at Will Hill’s list of possible next leaders!
The Conservative party is hopeless. Another couple of by election defeats and they will be toast (burnt at that)!
SeanT
Exactly correct. Brown is now stuck with the label “liar” having defended this deception in public and would obviously be crushed in a referendum. How does he spin his way out of that problem?
What is the upside of Brown preventing a vote when he knows its so universally unpopular?
Does anybody happen to know how many of the Tory candidates are millionaires?
Tony Lit for one, or has he now been quietly dropped?
I ask the question because, being able to buy their way out of problems, they are not forced to share the common experience of public services.
Re Guido at [64] What is actually said is:
“The party has received notice of possible claims over the donation. The report says: “No provision has been made in the party’s financial statements in relation to these donations, which have since been expended, as the party has continued to receive legal advice that any such claim, if made, would not succeed.”
If (Big IF) we ever had to pay it back would only need £35 from each member!
70 The curious thing about you Icarus is that you seem far more interested in the fortunes of the Conservatives (for whom you are always predicting disaster) than your own party (which has one third of the MPs, half the number of councillors, one quarter of the members, and half the level of support that the Conservatives have).
71 - most people don’t really give that much of a toss about Europe one way or the other. Was it 1% who regarded it an important issue in a recent poll?
You do get phone in polls (eg to the Sun or Mail) saying 90% want a referendum, but how representative is that?
Besides, 90% of the population would probably want a cup of tea now if they were offered one, but they don’t feel that strongly and don’t mind too much not having one made for them.
Icarus I have no idea whether you will be asked to repay the money or not but it would pretty near a catastrophe if you were, given the strong chance of an election within the year. Only £35 a member? And how are you going to pay for the election?
74. The bulk of Lib Dem posters on this site only really seem to get excited about Tory problems - they are often better Labour cheerleaders than the Labour posters.
Regarding Murdoch on Europe. Big business will always prefer to have many countries rather than just a few. The smaller countries are, the more they can be played off against each other by companies saying they will move their businesses and jobs elsewhere. If Germany comes down hard on your company for being a monopoly you can always not operate there and sell your products to Germans over the border in Austria. If the EU does it you have to abide by the regulations or lose a lot of business.
Secondly, in terms of this poll. It should be remembered this is coming out during the Brown bounce - when a lot of moderates have switched back to Labour. When those moderates were announcing their voter intention as Tory I’m sure a lot more “Conservative voters” liked Cameron but not the party.
Sean Fear (74) - Are you able to tell us precisely how many members the Tory Party currently has? It was mentioned above that they failed to report this figure to the Electoral Commission.
75. Yadda yadda yadda.
I doubt that many people overly cared about votes for women in, say, 1895; probably not that many people cared about trial by jury and habeus corpus when they were writing Magna Carta. The average peasant just wanted to get the cabbage harvest in.
This does not mean that these issues are insignificant. It just means most people aren’t geeks like us, and don’t have the time to worry about more distant and theoretical issues, day by day.
But the independence of our nation and the integrity of this government ARE vital issues. And if there is a vote people WILL get involved and engaged. Indeed a plebiscite would be an infusion of energy into our system - we would see real full-blooded debate on serious matters - great for British politics. A vote would also be the morally correct thing, of course.
By contrast, a failure to grant a referendum by this government, having promised one in the manifesto, would go down as one of the greatest betrayals of trust in modern British history.
39 - The Channel 4 poll is further fuel to the idea that Cameron needs to cut his right wing adrift, it’s becoming essential to his (and his party’s) electability.
The poll up top is clearly barmy, who cocked up - ICM?
In any case, what it might show is that Cameron is more liked than the tories among the voters that he needs to attract and Brown is the exact opposite.
77 - at the moment that may be the case. There is probably a warm feeling toward Gordon Brown - a bit of a honeymoon even among LDs.
Another reason is that the Tory cheerleaders on this site have been making the most outrageous predictions for the last year, and it is amusing to see them proved wrong. There’s been rather too much of the “You’re so crap it’s unbelievable” football terrace chanting too from Tories too. (Cheerleaders and football terraces - does that make a mixed metaphor?)
As a LD, my biggest hope is that Brown will ditch ID cards, the most appalling policy that united the Tories and Labour at the last election. I am pretty critical of my own party here too.
Welcome pom pom. You seem to be a new name round here.
77 - Some of us try and provide a bit of balance. I presume that someone like Icarus has spent his life in a tory/lib dem seat with labour nowhere. As such he doesn’t see them as a threat.
The national picture should be seen as different though, localism is fine but you can’t fight such local battles at a national level.
79 No I couldn’t tell you precisely. I would estimate that as at 31.12.06, there were c.245,000 Conservative members with full voting rights within the Conservative Party, and another 20,000 or so who don’t have full voting rights.
80 Yes, very many important issues are of interest to relatively few people.
80 - seanT - you consistent make an eloquent and valid argument regarding the referendum on this site. Perhaps you are the new Bruce Anderson. I disagree with much of what you say, but it’s nice to see it put coherently.
But I still disagree with you. And I disagree with my party and oppose a referendum on the issue.
“The Channel 4 poll is further fuel to the idea that Cameron needs to cut his right wing adrift, it’s becoming essential to his (and his party’s) electability.”
The strategy of the lemming?
77- I think it depends on events, also Cameron made it pretty clear he aims to do maximum damage to the LD’s on his way to Govt and this forms a central part of his strategy.
87 At which he’s had some success. He has picked up affluent former Lib Dem voters in the Home Counties and London. The problem with Cameron’s strategy, so far, is that it has been almost exclusively focussed on such voters, and the election result won’t turn on them.
Maximum damage a la Ealing Southall and Sedgefield, no doubt.
89 250 Council seats and a swing of anything from 1-4% from the last election (if polls are to be believed) is quite hefty damage.
86 - Targetted well, in the same way that Militant was targetted, it shouldn’t cause lasting problems. Militant had two MPs at the time I think (Nellist and Fields), with many CLPs being run by them, but labour managed it.
The important thing is to find those who have the views that other voter’s find unacceptable, and then issue an ultimatum. If that doesn’t work then expel them.
The Conservative Democratic Alliance for a start, is that a proscribed organisation now? It’s people like that that you should be ‘cutting adfrift’.
88 - I think the picking up of “affluent former Lib Dem voters” actually predates Cameron by a little and was already happening at the 2005 GE. There were swings to the Tories against the LDs in a lot of SE LD / Tory marginals. What he needs to do is to get the C2 vote had, in N Kent, for example to desert Labour. A lot of these families, would have voted for Thatcher, for Blair in 1997 and have probably stayed at home since 1997.
Thank you for those figures, Sean (84). So it would appear that the Lib Dems do have OVER a quarter of the Tory membership, in terms of head-count.
In terms of the quality of that membership, however, clearly the Lib Dems are streets ahead, as the poor third places of Cameron’s Conservatives in Southall and Sedgefield showed.
The Conservativer percentage in the latest poll is about the same as at the last election - 32% (election 32.4%).
We are mid way through the parliament!! You have a shiney new leader. And came third in the by elections. Not much progress yet.
I think another spell in opposition will have a more serious effect on the Conservative party than the Lib Dems, don’t you?
91 - that’s tricky. I am not an expert, but I imagine that some Conservative Associations would rather stick to the true path and be in opposition forever, than compromise.
It may be thus until Margaret Thatcher has been dead for a number of years. She still casts a shadow as far as I can tell. At least when Kinnock and Blair pulled off their series of mini-coups in the Labour party, all the successful Labour heroes of the past were long gone.
Cameron has a hell of a job to do, and somebody should have started doing it about 6 years ago.
Even so, Sean (90), you are talking about the Lib Dems’ second best ever result in local elections. If you Tories find comfort in that, you are welcome to it. But it is hardly worth spinning it as a great triumph for Cameron.
85. Fair enough. There are some people (perhaps including you) who have consistently opposed an EU referendum all the way through. I revile their views, utterly, however they at least have the virtue of consistency - they are not complete hypocrites.
The ones who are beneath contempt are those in Labour who were so vehemently in favour of a referendum but now suddenly have changed their minds because it suits them. For instance, one Labour MP to my knowledge said in his 2005 manifesto: “I believe in democracy, therefore I fully support the referendum on the European Constitution”.
What, now he doesn’t believe in democracy? Perhaps these people think this is no longer a Constitution. But of course it is. Everyone across Europe agrees it is 90-98% of the old Treaty. With a few amendments. And as Blair himself said - “what you can’t have is anyone bringing back the old Treaty with a few amendments, and saying, here, have another go”.
And now have the old Treaty, with a few amendments. But they aren’t even having another go - they’re just ramming it through the various parliaments.
This contempt for the people is insupportible. I think it is potentially disastrous in the long run. We are building up to a situation where the anger will be so great, when it is finally unleashed, under the next Tory government, Britain may be sundered from the EU altogether. Not many people want that. We need to release the pressure now. The voice of the people should be heard. A referendum is a safety valve.
BTW I wasn’t aware, however, that the Lib Dems had come to a conclusion on the EU Treaty. Does your party officially support a vote or not?
92. Actually Cameron needs to win over both sets of voters to reassemble the 1980s coalition, though the proportions may differ a little since back then (more hand wringing middle class types and fewer white van men). It’s tricky.
Nick etc. Can someone explain to me how TECHNICALLY this new treaty changes the UK’s implementation of the EU.
1) The previous acts that enforced the treaties (Rome, Maastricht etc) still in place intact? This will be added too by an additional bill that doesn’t need to repeal previous measures.
2) The repeal of parts of previous treaties to allow new EU powers or new methods to devolve/exercise existing EU powers.
3) The wholesale repeal of previous acts and the introduction of a new legal framework.
97 - I THINK the LD line has been to support referenda - on Maastricht, the single currency and the new treaty too. It’s populist line and a cloak for any embarrassment caused by being pro-Europe.
Sean T
What you consistently ignore is that red top readers don’t give a t**s about the leader columns. Today we have splashed all over the Sun front page ‘petting sounds on big brother-with mikes!’ What passes for their news columns is not particularly anti Gord or pro Dave.
Turning to the Mail they are relentlessly anti Cameron on their news pages as is Littlejohn even if their leader line is pro referendum. Do you think CCO is happy; I can tell you they’re not.
As for timing of the GE relative to the referendum, GB has three choices.
First autumn 2007 GE pre agreement on the text in December( if there’s no UK GE there might be agreement in October but a GE here would postpone that to december). Optimal in my view as I posted yesterday.
Second May 2008. Post agreement and pre Parliamentary ratification. In other words the necessary legislation would be postponed until after the GE. The GE might however coincide with an Irish or other referendum, though, I suppose.
Third post Parliamentary ratification( eg May 2009). That leaves DC with a tricky choice; does he say he will not honour a treaty commitment which has already been ratified and seek a mandate via a referendum post election to achieve the unachievable ( asking 26 other countries to ditch what they’ve just agreed to).
91 I would be very surprised if more than a handful of CDA members are actually paid up members of the Conservative Party. Those who were members mainly resigned during the course of the last Parliament, and, if they belong to any party, it would be UKIP (or in the case of one member, the BNP). By a curious coincidence, I belong to the same social organisation as the Chairman of CDA, so I’m pretty confident about that. He hates the Conservative Party.
I just don’t think there’s any equivalent of Militant Tendency within the Conservative Party
93 ” Thank you for those figures, Sean (84). So it would appear that the Lib Dems do have OVER a quarter of the Tory membership, in terms of head-count.”
Well, they have slightly over a quarter, if that’s any consolation to you.
“In terms of the quality of that membership, however, clearly the Lib Dems are streets ahead, as the poor third places of Cameron’s Conservatives in Southall and Sedgefield showed. ”
I’m sure the proportion of activists to members is higher in the Lib Dems than it is in the Conservatives, but you’re really clutching at straws if you think a couple of by-election results mean anything.
.
94 You also have a shiny new leader. But you’re a distant third in surveys of voting intention.
96 Well, I think I can take comfort in making a gain of 900 seats, and taking nearly 300 off the Lib Dems.
102 - If there are only a handful in the CDA then that’s a very practical option for Cameron, a lot of noise and little damage to be done.
103 Since the May elections when the Conservatives made 900 gains Conservative support in the polls has collapsed from 40% to 32% . There is no doubt that if the local elections were fought now , post Brown , you would lose those 900 gains and more .
105 We would probably lose some of them, if the local elections were fought now, but certainly not the majority. May’s polls were placing the Conservatives on 36-39%, compared to 32-35% now, but oppositions can expect their vote in local elections to exceed their poll ratings.
101. Blue moon. You always sound either defeatist or anti-referendum when you post on this issue. Are you a europhile? Apathetic on the subject? Or what?
I agree with you that in terms of avoiding-the-issue an October GE is perfect for Gord. In his manifesto he will presumably say - “I will sign the Treaty as its good for Britain”, no mention of a referendum, ergo no broken promise.
But this is dangerous in itself. He opens himself up to attack from all the papers as well as the Tories. The pro-referendum campaign will also be kicking in then - the election might become a referendum on the referendum.
And anyway I don’t think he will go for a GE in Oct. The polls just aren’t good enough. Labour is skint and the Tories have big money. Way too risky.
May 2008 is appalling timing for a GE, in Labour terms, vis-a-vis Europe. Height of the controversy,
2009 isn’t great, just pre implentation. But the worst may be over - IF Gordon has managed to avoid allowing a vote. The papers may have forgiven him by then….
But I still think there’s a good chance he will crack. Back in 2004 no one thought Blair would grant a vote. But he folded under pressure.
[102] Sean, that “same social organisation” - wouldn’t be one that has Lodges by any chance, would it?
Of course you don’t need to answer that - FWIW I was once invited to join a Masonic Lodge, but thought it a little moribund so didn’t take the offer up - I do know you can’t take a view on Masonry as such, only on individual Lodges (because they’re all very different).
108 Well guessed.
109 Oh Sean F! I wish you had kept that to yourself! I can forsee a whole new line of conspiracy theories cluttering up the site from now on.
[110] Oh come on Gus, Peebies and conspiracy theories go together like crumpets and butter…
seanT- your twittering on about a plebiscite is really quite amusing. You know at best the tone of the referendum would be based on a pound of bananas argument with about 20% turnout, and probably less than 1% reading the damned thing. Hardly democratic stuff.
Why don’t we have plebiscites on hanging, castrating paedophiles, creating concentration camps for asylum seekers- all again on about 20% turnout.
Infact let us get rid of Parliament altogether- according to you just a bunch of elitists anyway who think they know better than the plebs.
Off to Granada and five days in the sun. Make a nice change from this cold damp isle!
this is one reason why I don’t support NickP’s favourite charity http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6917113.stm “get away from me you creature of Hades…..argggghhhh”
I don’t think this poll tells us much. On the face of it the 42% figure isn’t great for Dave, but is it the case that Tory voters are a much more hard-to-please lot, who don’t like chucking plaudits around about their leader? And of course we don’t know how previous Tory leaders would have fared with the same poll. Cameron might be Mr Popular in comparison.
One crumb of comfort for the Tories. 17% of Labour voters actually like both Cameron and the Conservatives (compared to only 13% of Tory voters who like both Brown and Labour). So Dave and the Tories seem more successful at reaching out to voters who won’t be voting for them.
110- a ha- Augustus- not conspiracy theorits but people like myself who believe that people who hang out in silly secret socities to safeguard their personal interests are lower in the pecking order than those who pay for their children to go to elitist schools. Invariably though the two are the same.
So we have a profile of sean fear- a reactionary public school, educated, mason who wants to bring back capital punishment. Wouldn’t be on my xmas card list. That said I doubt mine would be on his.
105. But as you yourself have pointed out, Mark, neither local or parliamentary by-elections bear out the supposed increase for Lab we see in the national polls.
Blue moon, I would welcome an autumn GE. I expect us to win a slim majority at one, and at worst deprive Brown of his.
Anyone know the answers to my post #99
Tyson, can you email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail daht com?
116 Thanks Tyson. I knew I could rely on you to lower yourself to the occasion.
116 - is there really much of a difference between the Masons, the Round Table, the Rotary Club and the Lions?
Who was it who went on about the Illuminati on this site, and how Masons were taking over the world?
Will Hills have a new market up on next LD leader. Nothing particularly interesting at the top; but perhaps Featherstone at 33-1 or Webb at 66-1 might be worth considering.
There may only be a comparatively small number of people who get as worked up about the EU Consti…err, sorry, tidying up treaty as SeanT, but to those discontented sorts you can add those who aren’t terribly impressed by Governments who blatantly break crystal clear promises, many of whom could not be dismissed as foaming right-wingers.
Sean T
As usual you totally ignore my points; read my post and deal with them! If there’s an October election GB won’t say he’ll sign no matter what. On the contrary he’ll say what he said in The Sun yesterday ‘I’ll veto an EU treaty which crosses my red lines’.
As for May 2008 as I said he will postpone the legislation( he couldn’t possibly get it through by then anyway) so it won’t be ‘at the height of the controversy’; the October European Council agreement will be long gone.
As for my views I don’t think post the changes that the case for a referendum is any stronger than for the Maastricht treaty. You may have wanted one then but the Major Government went ahead without one as did Thatcher over the single european act, which was arguably much more important than the proposed Treaty amendments.
I hope that DC does not ‘bang on’ ( his words) about the EU during the election when only 1% think important and instead concentrates on issues which resonate with the public ; immigration, crime, national security, tax and spend, better public services.
You’re obsessed with this issue; the vast majority aren’t. Face it. I simply don’t agree with your view that our national independence will be brought to an end by the proposed treaty amendments. It’s hysterical hyperbole IMHO.
Any EU related legislation has to be approved by the Council of ministers first so your argument that a very high percentage of UK legislation is EU related is completely bogus. The vision you have for the UK in the EU is unachievable without our leaving and negotiating a free trade agreement( which could certainly be done, I agree). That is not the Tory Party’s position and I don’t think it ever will be.
100 LD policy is to support referenda.
Personally, I don’t agree. Representative democracy is OK by me. At least MPs are more likely to vote on the issue raised not on some other whim. Even better with STV elections to parliament, of course.
124. Pure European Movement hogwash.
102.
“I just don’t think there’s any equivalent of Militant Tendency within the Conservative Party”
No, but there’s a sizable malevolent tendency! The average time between a new leader being elected and a chunk of his own party dancing (officially in private but scarcely-concealed) on his grave seems to get ever-shorter.
121 Probably me, SBS, probably me….
“116 - is there really much of a difference between the Masons, the Round Table, the Rotary Club and the Lions?”
Not really, although Freemasonry is more fun, IMHO?
“Who was it who went on about the Illuminati on this site, and how Masons were taking over the world?”
One infallible way of spotting the rantings of a nutter is if they use two out of the three following words placed together. Jewish/banking/masonic.
112. “So we have a profile of sean fear…”
Here’s my profile of Sean Fear: well-informed, generous with his time, balanced in his presentation and polite.
Although I’ve rarely posted before this week, I’ve been reading for a while. So I’m grateful to those writing and running the site and posters who are measured and interesting for making it such a useful resource. They deserve better than you dole out in that post Tyson.
Hello everyone:
I usually watch these boards but have never had the courage to really engage, i have only just found politics and enjoyable subject. However, I couldn’t resist asking a question on this.
SeanF - what is it like being in a lodge? What do you actually do? I can only think that it is a bit of a talking shop for old men who like to think the are important members of the coumminity but really 95% of people don’t know who they are and see them as no different to everyone else. Oh and their wifes wait outside in vectra’s.
So sean please do tell, i lost my poster virginity to ask these questions, so please do reply.
116 - Have you decided to stop supporting labour yet tyson, you are clearly well to the left of them?
125 - Referendums not referenda (I’m with the OED on this one)!
On the issue, if it’s a constitutional change then there should be a referendum, this is clearly the case here, as were the Welsh and Scottish parliaments. Something like hanging isn’t a constitutional matter so there is no need for a referendum.
116 - I imagine you send and receive countless Christmas cards to and from yourself such is the limitless and unbounded admiration of the relationship.
Jonathan at 99: My understanding is that it’s the first, but remember we don’t actually have an agreement yet (it’s due to be finalised in December), let alone the legislation to implement it.
114: rofl! A pleasant final sight to take into the next world.
I’m away for a week from Sunday. Might look in from an internet cafe, but my wife tell me that real people can manage a week without politics. Seems hard to believe, but I might give it a try. They say pb.com contributors think about an opinion poll every 22 seconds, y’know.
129 Actually, I think the word “international” has to be included as well, if the Conspiracy Theorist wants me to award an Alpha; just using the other three words only gets a Beta Plus.
122. William Hill next Liberal Democrat leader market has seen Nick Clegg who opened at 2/1 this morning cut to 11/8
124. So you are unmasked. You claim to be a Tory, I think, but you Don’t Want A Referendum on the Treaty. In this you completely differ with 95% of your fellow Tories, and with 80% of the British people.
The European Constitution gives the EU a single legal personality, a foreign minister, a diplomatic corps, it obliges our parliament to act in support of the European ideal, it takes away the right of veto in another 40 areas, it is the capstone on a thirty year effort to forge a Federal Europe.
You obviously agree with this. Yet you claim to be a Tory! Your idiotic views are therefore not worthy of rebuttal. It’s like talking to a Christian who, er, actually doesn’t believe in all that Jesus mumbo-jumbo and finds prayer rather embarrassing.
130 Many thanks.
131 Think of the medieval morality plays that guilds used to produce, and it will give you a good idea of what goes on. Other than that there’s fund raising for a variety of charities, and a very good social life.
138. Thanks for replying
Sean I am quite young and not that intelligent i’m afraid please could you expand with answers that can be understood without the need to read between the lines.
The SUN today has a headline: “Tories plan disaster supremo” Has nobody told them that they already have Disastrous Dave?