Sean Fear’s Friday slot
July 27th, 2007
- Can Labour Retain the South?
I wrote some months ago that the Conservatives could not win a working majority without significantly increasing their presence in the North of England. Conversely, Labour cannot retain a working majority without holding onto a significant number of seats in London and the South of England, particularly the South East. It was Tony Blair’s particular skill to be able to win over large numbers of affluent Conservative voters in the South, enabling Labour to win seats it had never held before.
Following the boundary changes, according to Anthony Wells, there will be 29 seats with Labour MPs, where the party’s percentage majority over the Conservatives is 3% or less. These include 11 seats that have notional Conservative majorities, as a result of the changes. Some commentators consider that a number of these remain notionally Labour seats, but all are agreed that the boundary changes have not been helpful to Labour in these seats. In addition, another 4 Labour seats are vulnerable to a similar swing to the Liberal Democrats. Were they all to fall, then Labour would be left without an overall majority.
Out of these 33 seats, 21 are located in London and the South of England. Of those, 14 have Labour leads of under 2% (including notional Conservative leads). In all but two of these, Hastings and Rye and Islington South, Labour have performed very poorly in recent local elections. Labour could retain an overall majority, even if it were to lose all of these Southern marginal seats, but it would be such a small majority as to call into question Gordon Brown’s ability to govern for a full term.
The history of John Major’s last administration suggests that it is better for a government to lose an election outright, than to hold on to power with a very small majority and see its authority sapped through endless backbench rebellions and defeats.
David Cameron seems to appeal to Southern voters far better than to voters in the North and Scotland. Were the overall vote shares of the parties to be largely unchanged at the next election, Labour’s majority would probably fall quite significantly, were the Conservatives to put on votes in the South, and lose them in the North, because the Conservatives have far fewer marginal seats in the North and Scotland than Labour has in the South.
Gordon Brown has demonstrated over the past couple of months that he is no fool. He will be well aware of his party’s vulnerability in the South, and will make every effort to retain these vital seats.
Last night, there was just one by-election in Powys CC, Grungog. Liberal Democrat 234, Independent 143, Independent 98, Conservative 95. Liberal Democrat hold.
Sean Fear is a London Tory
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I don’t think it’s accurate to describe the Labour performance in Sittingbourne and Sheppey local elections over the last two years as ‘very poor’. Their vote went up nearly everywhere, whilst the Tories have suffered more from the new Sheppey First! party than Labour have. The Tories had a net loss of seats this year, whilst Labour won back a ward that the Tories took in 2006.
Go on Gordon. Go for it. You know you want to. They say go on a high and a 9% poll lead is the best its going to get. Can’t really ask for more. How long before the media turns? No one can hold back the tide.
Insightful piece which is why I think an election this year inconceivable, and an election next year conceivable only on the basis of the most recent YouGov being a consistentish lead. Where though do you draw your artificial political line between North and South. I must say you get the impression this country’s politics are turning almost Ukrainian
BTW What 4 seats are vulnerable to the Liberal Democats
Interesting article Sean Fear.
Some time ago I thought I read that the boundary changes were likely to favour Labour but reading your article clearly this is not the case. Or at least not in the South of England. What about across the country as a whole? Do these boundary changes just favour the Tories or are there instances where Labour benefit?
3 - they damage Labour everywhere overall. there are a few seats that become ’safer’ Labour but this is usually at the expense of a neighbouring seat become more marginal or changing to the tories.
1. I think Labour were about 16% behind the Conservatives in the wards making up Sittingbourne & Sheppey this year, although I agree that there was a big vote for Sheppey First.
2. I would draw the line at Gloucestershire, Milton Keynes, Bedfordshire and Essex, but I’d include Oxfordshire as Midlands.
The 4 seats are Edinburgh South, Islington South, Watford and Hampstead and Kilburn.
2. I’ve always imagined a divide from the Severn to the top of East Anglia as the dividing line.
If Gordo holds an election we’ll get rid of him. Lets encourage him to hold one. Well done on that, Mike.
I’m sure Ming doesn’t want another 5 years of Labour government, so will form a Lib Dem/Conservative coalition. Finally, we’ll be rid of Labour and its corrupt cronies.
3. Overall they benefit the Conservatives, but not in every constituency by any means. A handful of Conservative seats become notionally Labour, although I’d expect incumbent Conservative MPs to hold most of them.
5.”The 4 seats are Edinburgh South, Islington South, Watford and Hampstead and Kilburn.”
and Oxford East which is considered notionally LD by Wells but R&T have it as notionally Lab
4 and 8. Thanks Pimpernel and Sean Fear. Important information from a betting point of view.
4. “there are a few seats that become ’safer’ Labour”
2 Lab MPs who should thank the boundary commissions are Margharet Beckett and Jim Cousins (if they want to re-stand)…their seats go from being potential LD targets to safe seats again (Beckett’s majority is notionally up from 13% to 34% and Cousins’ from 11.1% to 26.2%)
Brown could get embroiled in a major new scandal over pensions. More than £27 billion was lost last year through a new chapter in the Brown Pensions Fiasco (this time on state liabilities).
Brown loses the country so much money, that this is the ERM crisis manginified fourfold. Surely this proves Brown’s monumental incompetence. Brown is an idiot.
Devious Brown tried to conceal news through hiding info in documents released as Parliament ends for summer. Looks like Brown is ratcheting up the spin and deception to levels never seen before.
Well done on the post bringing the issue to our attention. Need more like this.
5 Thanks. Interesting to note Labour have two distinct seat clusters in the South outside London. One in Kent which looks very vulnerable with so many tinyish majorities bar Dover, and the other around Bristol which looks much safer, but where the Locals have been running against IIRC. Again well done on the piece, now get studying a few seats in Wales!
9 Yes Wells is often at variance. Hence I was surprised Mr Fear had Aberconwy as a notional Conservative Seat, when Wells has it notionally Labour.
11 Aren’t there neighbouring Colleagues whose seats now take their place in Lib Dem crosshairs. BTW If you are at a loose end perhaps you can get me the Notional Lib Dem target list in Wales out of interest. Thanks
It will be interesting to see whether the Tories continue to do well in the London suburban seats where they had good swings last time but did n’t win.
Time To Gloat.
This is the time we should sing for joy. All the press and media ratcheting up attacks against the opposition. ‘Labour best thing since sliced bread.’ ‘Brown best ever PM.’ ‘Labour will take all before it. 150 seat majority here we come.’
I feel sorry for our opponents. Honestly I do. Are they crying? No really, was asking innocently. Not privately laughing at all. Not even roaring with laughter. Okay, may be just a little bit.
Who would have thought the Telegraph and Mail would be biased to us? Snotty nosed London trash like them only undermine us. But still, welcome on board. Promise we won’t throw you off after the GE.
We need to get back to traditional Labour policies. Taxes are still too low. Keep on raising them Brown.
Brown plays the best con in the book. Keep this going as well. Just make sure you actually implement left-wing policies or face a backlash within the party. There could be a rumble with Brown if he doesn’t get us out of Iraq, and go after those horrible Americans. Already a bit yes. We need more. We need to get in the EU more instead. Brown make sure you stay consistent on this.
Sean
Thanks for your article as usual. We’re all grateful for your intelligent and thoughtful weekly posts. Boundary changes clearly make Labour’s task of obtaining an overall majority marginally more difficult. A repeat of last time-a 3% lead- would give them roughly a 45 seat majority as I recall.
Sean’s figures show that on a tiny swing say 1%- 1.5% Labour’s majority would disappear. In other words if the two Parties were level in the popular vote a hung Parliament would be quite likely. The point is they’re not which is why Labour are actively preparing for an early election as Nick Palmer and press reports make clear. Of course this could be in May but it could also be in October. Nothing’s been decided of course and plans could change but if the polls look as good in September as they do now an election in October is at least as likely as not. At a minimum it is ‘conceivable’!. Labour has small majorities at risk in the South; the question is when is the best time to hold those seats; when you’re substantially up in the polls seems to me to be a pretty good time.
Many thanks for the very interesting article Sean.
I wonder how the private polling is going by region?
12
Brown is not an “idiot” but does do some very strange things that appear to be financially inept. In fact almost everything he touches appear to have been financial disasters from gold sales, tax credits, pfi, metronet, huge public spending without reform, pensions, unlimited migration trapping people on welfare, bloating the public sector, introducing massive regulation that create jobs etc. On closer inspection though they simply are financial costs of staying in power.
By borrowing and spending in a huge way he has forced the economy to ‘grow’, by flooding the counry with migrant workers he has forced the economy to ‘grow’, by creating a false impression of a miracle economy he has forced it to ‘grow’ but he has just wasted the money. The single biggest scandal has been Osbornes inability to highlight this to the electorate and thus contributed to the brown bounce. When payback time comes the Labour Party will have been in power for 12-15 years and achieved many of its social engineering goals, changing our society forever.
This disaster will take 20 years to rectify.
Interesting look at the possibilities Sean. I don’t think you’re factoring the last few weeks opinion polls in though. As much as I’d like to see Labour lose ground it all depends on the state of play when the election is called.
If he goes in September as he well might then he could well gain several seats from the opposition parties such as Shipley, Rochdale and Dundee East. I think this would offset any gains in Hampstead and Sittingbourne by the Opposition parties. I could only see the scenario laid out coming into play if Brown alienates SE voters, something he hasn’t done so far.
ps. Why is Will L posting as ‘Scottish LabourLover’ today?
17 and 20. I’m assuming that Labour won’t have a lead of 9% at the next election. If they do, then of course I’ll be proved completely wrong. Rightly or wrongly, I don’t believe that public opinion has actually shifted as dramatically as the polls suggest.
Sean.
Forgive me if I’m misrepresenting your position but you seem to me to be saying that Labour has pretty much ‘had it’ because of this Regional weakness. They’re doomed to at best a feeble majority but more likely a hung Parliament.
Even if you’re right they’ll do better when the polls, unreliable as you say they are, give them this kind of lead than if they wait and find they show a narrower lead. Actually I doubt very much that Labour do feel remotely as pessimistic as you suggest they should be. And in terms of working out what they might do that’s surely what matters.
22. Not exactly. I’d say Labour would find it difficult to avoid having its majority cut back quite sharply if it went to the country in the Autumn. I just don’t believe that Labour are, in reality, in the same position now as they were in June 2001, when they last had a lead of 9%.
But I’m not saying that Labour would be bound to worse if they left the election till later. They might do better.
21. Sean, as someone much more on the ball when it comes to reading the polls and the trends than I am, could Blair’s departure, very favourable media coverage and Labour voters returning from the Libdems have turned the polls around so dramatically in such a short space of time?
Sean Do you really believe there’s any possibility Labour will get double digit leads next year or for that matter in 2009/10 or are you basically saying that the polls should be disegarded altogether? If they’re as badly out now as you think then presumably they’ll go on being wrong until there’s a profound change in their methodologies?
24. Sean, I think you answered my query at 23.
The Rallings and Thrasher notionals will in fact effectively be the ‘official’ baseline, not least as they were sponsored by the BBC, ITN, Sky and PA. I know the Wells figures are more easily acessible on the web, but even Anthony (I recall) said they were only meant to be used until R&T came out, and very generous and swift he was too to make them freely available.
According to R&T, then, (and in my Almanac) there are 27 Labour seats with a notional majority of less than 3.0%, 19 of these to the Conservatives. Of the nineteen, 13 are in the South and London, plus Stroud, arguably in the SW. The Labour overall majority in 2005 is calculated at 47, if the Speaker is counted as neutral.
25.”If they’re as badly out now as you think then presumably they’ll go on being wrong until there’s a profound change in their methodologies?”
Bluemoon, that is an interesting observation. I am no expert on polling methodology but I wondered recently about how much change there had been in the different pollsters methodology to first correct the shy Conservative vote, and then allow for the emergence of shy Labour voters before Blair departed?
What if the shy Labour voter has suddenly got their memory back?
Take the Libdems poll ratings recently, I found the different swings on a monthly basis between pollsters quite confusing. I know that they had fallen back a bit in Scotland, but I put that down to more of a knock on effect from being so long in coalition government where there was also 4 party politics?
Sean - excellent article as always
Labour has had it in the South. Minimum 6% swing there.
So the majority has gone!
It’s hard to know what’s happening because the polls aren’t weighted to show reliable regional data (as we know they find it hard enough to wait for national data) and local elections are replete with local factors. Also, we’re looking at a moving target - we mostly think DC’s increased popularity up to recently was particularly strong among southerners and middle-class voters, and that will have been reflected in the local elections, but is it the same voters who have pushed off in the current polls, or a different set? We don’t know.
In general I trust the electoral system to produce swings and roundabouts from the national figures. If Labour is in fact doing worse in the south, as it appears to be in Scotland, then that 6-9% lead is coming from Wales, the Midlands and North, which may produce some surprising Labour gains while the Tories get surprising gains in the south and the SNP get them in Scotland. But it’s wild speculation.
I note that the Spreadfair seat markets have large spreads and pessimistic assumptions for the two nationalist parties, which is odd as the downside is small - if you offer to bet £10 on Plaid winning 2.6 seats, you can’t lose more than £26 even if they don’t contest the election at all and swoon into Gordon’s arms.
Line 2 - weight not wait!
Aye, up with the English. Independence for Scotland now. Although I’m not sure about Labour as they’ve made a mess of Scotland, we’re better off with the SNP.
Wells gives a raw Labour majority of 38 on the new boundaries, but if we factor in Sinn Fein, SDLP and possibly Dai Davies this rises to 49. That is the diffrence between an arithmetical hung parliament anfd a practical hung parliament. Those taking a punt would be well-advised to check with the bookies which one they define as a HP.
A 1.7% swing to the Tories would deprive Labour of this majority, although if the LibDems fall back, the swing required rises a little to about 2.0%+
The problem for Labour is the lesson of John Major and the third term. In 1992 the Tories were defending 60 seats which they won in 1987 with less than 45% of the vote. They lost 28 of them (47%), as well as another 16 where they started with more than 45%.
Labour starts with 107 seats won in 2005 with less than 45% of the vote. A similar performance to Major’s in 1992 would see 50-60 seats lost, taking us into a very hung parliament. Labour’s majority is far more vulnerable than the Tories’ in 1992.
As others have said, we will almost certainly see a re-adjustment of the turnout pattern of the last two elections, with Labour putting on votes where it doesn’t help them. By definition, this means they will underperform where it hurts them most, and by that I mean the South…
In 1983, Labour held only 4 seats (excluding London) south of a line joining the Severn and the Wash. That region is the battleground for the next election…
33: ‘In 1983, Labour held only 4 seats (excluding London) south of a line joining the Severn and the Wash.’
What were they?
33 - looks like Lab will only hold Ipswich and maybe Oxford East on that definition this time……
but there will be swings TO labour in the north which wont help apart from Manchester Withington…….
27 I believe you said you had a series on Doughty Street in the can. When is it showing……………………..
32. Heck no. Remember Labour gave us a form of independence under the Scottish Parliament. And we’ve kept our extra funding. Thank Labour.
33. Perhaps it was only THREE; Bristol South, Ipswich and Thurrock…
Nick
I think Sean’s thesis is that Labour has far more seats which are vulnerable to the Tories in the South than there are Tory seats in the North which are vulnerable to similar swings. This means that swings and roundabouts wouldn’t come about in the way you suggest.
I don’t believe that you would get a 9% majority in a GE in October but you don’t need to. Right now( but you’re not going right now) I think 5-6 as an outcome seems perfectly achievable and would be easily enough for an historic fourth term or, as GB would call, it his first term.
If you wait till next year it will be very difficult to keep making the weather with an endless stream of announcements( all the way fromn January to late March when an election would be called). In that case events and bad news stories would start crowding in. Plus GB’s honeymoon may have faded and DC may have relaunched himself at a Party Conference.
I tend to believe sudden poll shifts when they chime in with my own sense of how things have been going. GB’s had a very good start and the Tory Party has had a very rough couple of weeks. I’m not surprised at the polls and tend to accept them as a reasonable snapshot of where we are now. The latest one might be a touch, but only a touch, high.
30 That is a great bet, but I prefer traditional bookies. They will hold their current three seats very well. Adam Price and Williams are safe. Maybe Maybe the only one under threat thanks to Labour voting Bangor moving into the new Arfon is Elfyn Lloyd, but then only if you are having a good time and only if Betty Williams stands there, as she surely will than fight pointlessly in the new Aberconwy. After that is is knife edge 50/50 fights in Ynys Mon V Labour and Ceredigion V Lib Dems. On those odds worth a punt they’d get at least one of those seats I would say
1983 - I believe Labour lost Thurrock too
38 - and in 87 the mighty con won Thurrock and Ipswich!!!
So its only Bristol S which has been Labour since the war - but will Dawn Primarolo be given the opportunity for early retirement next time?!!!
Contrasting the ICM polls from May and July, the Labour share of the poll rises largely at the expense of the SNP and the Lib Dems. Any rise at the expense of the SNP is unlikely to yield more labour seats in Scotland. Presumeably the Lib Dems will defend their existing seats to the hilt, and so if Brown is to increase his majority he needs to make progress in England, but the boundary changes make that difficult.
If he’s talked up now, calls an election in the Autumn and scrapes home, then he will be damaged goods.
Just to throw in another factor (perhaps for another article). The wing back to the Tories at local level in East Midlands seats could be a factor. NW Leics in particular had a massive swing in the locals. I wonder if for the purposes of this, some of these seats may be classed as ’southern’
41. No, see 42. They lost it (and Ipswich) in 1987…
45. And only held Bristol South by 1,404. Forgot it was that close in 1987…
Interesting article from Quentin Letts.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=471101&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=228
My reasoning would be a new divide. North staying Labour, with big swing to BNP. Lib Dems may gain seats were the are contesting against Labour through-out Britain. Ming shows he can do well, as at by-elections. Midlands and South small swing to Conservatives.
Labour should be very worried by those by-elections. As Mike pointed out these were very big drops for Labour -14% in Sedgefield, and -9% in ES. This proves the Labour vote is very soft, and the attacks on the opposition do not translate into real vote advantage for Labour, despite what the polls are showing. Sean Fear’s local by-elections will be very useful in gauging if there is a ‘real Brown bounce’, rather than the fake one we seem to be getting in the polls.
Is Brown really voter-friendly? He’s had a makeover, but he will prove a flop in the general election. The man just can’t speak and communicate well. Brown is embarassingly awful. Not really someone we’d want representing us on the world stage for any longer then necessary. This will be obvious in a GE, while obvious only for those watching PMQ’s and conference speeches at the moment. Brown is also not a real economist - he’s never studied it in his life (this was yet another Brown con).
At the moment he’s getting a bit of sympathy that’s all. It won’t last when we see the ugly side of Brown - what he’s been doing to Britain over the last 10 years - how he’s ruined it in so many ways. The economy is going pear shaped, and soon the bottom will fall out. There’s been a five consecutive day of crashing markets now. This has been covered up by the press, but that won’t last. It affect everyones pensions quite dramatically.
John Denham is well aware of this, and has been talking about the ’southern discomfort’ to electoral reform groups like make votes count.
Rod Crosby might know a bit more about this.
44 - the tories went backwards in the locals in nottingham, derby and leicester, did better is some district councils - tories also did badly in 2005 in seats like gedling. All during the years of blair drift. with good organisation labour should be able to defend most of its east mids seats.
50. I weren’t thinking of city seats which we’re not realistically going to win, more the semi rural ones.
44 - yes they can.
Also includes Sherwood and Broxtowe (sorry Nick)
+ Lincoln and Brigg/Cleethorpes
25 I think what I’m saying is that opinion polls are so much froth now. If, in Spring 2008, polls are still showing Labour 6-9% ahead, then I think Gordon Brown should go for it. I no more believe the huge shift in public opinion *at this point* than I belived polls showing a massive Tory lead as soon as Brown took over.
48 I think that’s overly complacent. I place very little value on Parliamentary by-elections as a predictor of future elections. If one does think them of value, then it’s interesting that Labour are down 27% in Sedgefield, and 19% in Ealing Southall, compared to 1997.
Sean: Spot on with the article. There will be some LibDem seats in the South too also going to the Conservatives.
Sean But what happens if they’re 6-9 this September and down to 4-5 by next Spring. He’ll have missed his best chance and be forced off his early election plan. Think of what can go wrong between October and the Spring( see my post at 39).
There has been a fair amount of gloating on this site during the past few days by Labour supporters over Brown’s improvement in the polls - certainly he is enjoying a significant honeymoon bounce, but will it last?
Three points worth remembering are firstly that John Major achieved a short-lived 14% lead in the polls after he succeeded Margaret Thatcher. Secondly, those painful mortgage interest hikes are just around the corner, with more likely to come and with house prices likely to start falling before the end of the year. Ultimately, it’s all about the economy stupid and that all important feel good factor. Thirdly - events Dear Boy, events!
Labour Seats on Spreadfair have risen remarkably from 270 to 315 over the past 4 weeks and are still cheap at this level if Labour can maintain anything close its current poll lead, but expensive if Brown’s bounce does indeed prove to be a temporary phenomenon.
for all those labour haters on here grasping at various straws here is an analysis by someone who can hardly be called a Brown cheerleader nor some Hefferite fundi which will hardly cheer you up
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/07/is-32-per-cent-.html
the linked spectator article has been mentioned before and again makes difficult reading for the cameronistas.
Anyway I am off to Tuscany to join the shadow cabinet in their summer breaks in the knowledge that a large lump of my two weeks has been paid for by the Brown bounce on the spreadfair market (hat tip Mike Smithson), if I bump into a member of the shadow cabinet I might even be inclined to buy them a large glass of Brunello. Ciao.
56 Not necessarily. A lead of 4-5% in Spring would be a lot more believable than a lead of 6-9% now.
Put it another way. Suppose John Major had called a snap election in November 1990. Do you really think he’d have got a double digit lead, as polls had suggested, when he took over?
A November election wasn’t practical for obvious seasonal reasons but I think he would have got a bigger majority the following Spring, the first practical option he had, than he finally did. The only reason he didn’t go then was because he didn’t want to be seen to be exploiting the Gulf war( I absolutely know my facts here).
I think any ‘froth’ will have been blown off by mid september and we’ll see where we are. However, I very much doubt that GB will go next Spring with a lead that’s substantially down on what he refuses this September. I know for a fact that many people in senior Tory circles will be very relieved indeed to get to the Party Conference with no election called.
60. I admit the Gulf War could have had a big impact on votes, then.
IMHO, Major got as big a majority (in terms of votes) as he could ever have hoped for, at 7% (Gulf war excepted) in 1992. It was his immense bad luck that so many of his votes came in the wrong places. He should have had a majority of 60, but instead got one of 21.
Sean goodnight. I’m sure this will run and run. Thanks for the article.
60. Blue Moon. This is exactly my feeling. The Tories have run into trouble and need time for “events” to restore their fortune. I’m sure they are terrified of him calling a snap election.
Brown NOW has his honeymoon period, media approval, soaring poll results and a weakened opponent. It’s a no-brainer to me. He won’t get a better chance than this of winning an election in his own right. To delay risks squandering all of these advantages and also exposes him to the consequences of the uncertain economic picture.
53 Couldn’t agree more, SeanF.
And once again, thanks for the article.
Alastair Campbell on the SNP and the lack of media coverage of Scottish politics down South.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6917079.stm
But on the other hand maybe they should occasionally take a little more notice, especially now that Labour and therefore Gordon Brown is not in charge of the agenda in Holyrood?
Margot Macdonald has re-tabled a parliamentary motion calling for a vote on the redrafted EU Treaty.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1173192007
63 “It’s a no-brainer to me”
stjohn - you mean ever since you changed your mind by selling your Brown Weeks bet recently!
58 jgc Brogan is wrong about the Cameron top team not expecting the Brown bounce. Although the U-turns of government policy at such a pace may well be a different matter. As is the incidence of a silly defector and daft letter writers. Nothing much you can do about the terminally egotistical. Well, nothing legal, anyway.
Hmm.. having just had a few chats, what I can tell you is this:
If Brown is going to go early, he should go early. Frankly I am surprised he has not called an election already*.
Gordon is riding high in the polls, I suspect it won’t last.
*actually I am not, he is a cautious man but he has the wind with him now, and that won’t last.
One fair question has been raised by posters. Why don’t Labour u-turns show chaos in the Labour government? They are chopping and changing policies on a daily basis that Brown himself was responsible for over the last 10 years. He seems more than a little confused. Of course, most of this is just headline grabbing, without any genuine change in policy. This is a valid point.
10 years of Brown. Enough of him! A stale government in chaos.
Re 69, Perspex, good point, and you are right to highlight it, however the press are not playing it that way.
66. Too right Peter!
The greatest betting lesson I have, eventually, learnt this year, well almost learnt, is not to stick to my strongly held and expressed positions when either the evidence changes or wiser voices persuade me otherwise. So yes I now frequently reverse my positions and then argue just as robustly for my new position.
I have noticed in the Church Times that the parish of Bray are advertising for a replacement vicar. I may well apply!
Excellent article from Sean and it does get behind the headline polls at the moment to the problems facing both Brown and Cameron in different regions of the country. I have my bug bears with the media and the accuracy of the polls right now which in some ways Sean’s comments during the thread have backed up.
But what will be interesting is the million dollar question, if the polls continue to show a Labour lead during the holidays which remember go on into August will Brown call an election in October?
I think if he does he will win and by leaving it to the Spring or even later does not mean he will lose but it does make the gamble even more risky because it allows *events* or polls to possible conspire against him.
This sudden dramatic swing in the polls for both the main parties carries longer term caveats if he does not go this Autumn. I don’t buy the idea that Labour are skint, because I am sure that Brown has factored in both a treasury and Labour GE fund to his plans. But what if he did not expect such a dramatic bounce and always planned for a Spring GE instead, could the fact that his natural caution and need to adhere to a long planned strategy end up showing his lack of courage or to put it a more gentle way his over cautious nature?
72 stjohn - Good luck with the job application, I doubt it will pay as well as your present occupation though!
I know you appreciate my football bets - so here’s a suggestion for the forthcoming season. Sunderland to finish top of the other newcomers, i.e. above both the Blouse and Derby, available at even money with Blue Square. An absolute “no-brainer” I would say, wouldn’t you agree?
74 ….or here’s another suggestion. Derby are currently approx 1/2 in the market to go down (Gulp!), i.e. they are reckoned to have a 33% chance of achieving the generally assumed 40 points target required to survive. On Blue Square’s handicaped Premiership, with both Man Utd & Chelsea rated at scratch and Derby at +50 points, they are quoted at 15-1. Were they to exceed this magic 40 point level, this would result, therefore, in them achieving 90+ points on the handicap and in with a good chance of delivering on such a long-priced bet. Anything above 45 points and they would be home and hosed!
There is a big difference between tax revenue raised in London and the SE and the provision of hospitals and other services which may not play in Brown’s favour. Neither will rising house prices and present stamp duty and inheritance thresholds help Brown. both thresholds are ‘low’, not fully adjusted in line with inflation, and tend to hit the South hard.
Brown has been rather disingenuous about the floods, are the river defences in order or not; is his ‘investment’ in flood defences for the UK or for England? Why should he expect insurers to pay up, if central government has been failing to keep flood drainage systems in order.
Brown is not a financial wizard, and it is still possible that his Alice in Wonderland economy begins to unravel. Is it really in the UK interest to see the dollar falling against sterling? Doesn’t help UK export revenues, does it? The stock market’s volatility could be a temporary blip, but if it isn’t there is trouble ahead.
On the other hand, are enough voters in Southern constituencies convinced that David Cameron is able to offer a competent alternative to Brown?
14.”BTW If you are at a loose end perhaps you can get me the Notional Lib Dem target list in Wales out of interest. Thanks ”
I think the most Welsh marginal seats where they’re second are Swansea West (12.9% majority), Newport East (21.5%) and Wrexham (22.4%)
77 Thanks LOoking at the Map they seem to have a long term strategy based on the M4 coridor. Their challenge in those 2nd seats you mention is to close the gap there and in others to hailing distance as in Swansea West, and in other seats like Cardiff West where they saw big % increases to move into 2nd, and become challengers in the long term. Although their performance in Cardiff West this May was very disheartening for them IMHO at aleast
78. yes. One potential problem for long term strategies can be demographic changes and changes in the political trends (for ex what will happen when Lab is thrown out of power if they don’t get those seats whilst Lab is in power.
However I agree with your general thought on that even if the uncertainty on when the next GE will be makes things, well, a bit more uncertain (if there’s a snap election on October I suppose they will be Lab holds, but if the next GE is in 2009/10, I think 2 of them will be “in play” for LDs).
And I agree that in some seats (Cardiff South, Brigdend) the battle next time will be for second place between Con and LD to establish who the challenger is
80 Which 2 do you have in mind do you think. By play do you mean winning or more likely a strong 2nd putting themselves well into contention for the future assuming you don’t mean Swansea West where they already are in play
81. yes, I meant Swansea West and I had Newport East after it.
82 Well I can see them winning Swansea West, but do you really think they take Newport East. I admit they had a very impressive swing in May, and the others vote collapsed behind them. Have they got much to squeeze from other Parties
83. At Wesminster level there’s a good Con vote to squeeze. With current polling it should be a Lab hold..however if the next GE is in 2009, everything can happen….I would tend towards a Lab hold though more than a LD gain depending on Lab’s national situation
84 I agree. I think Newport East will be a two stage operation (assuming 2009 and after Election) like Cardiff Central a slashed majority next time with a view to taking it the time after, as a 10%+ swing is quite an ask in one election. They will be helped though by the fact as in May the Tories have a target of their own in Newport West and every last man jack of them will be there. I’d be surprised if they do very much more than go through the motions in Newport East. Plus on May’s evidence the Tory voters there seem happy to be squeezed unlike say in Cardiff I think
85. “I think Newport East will be a two stage operation (assuming 2009 and after Election) like Cardiff Central a slashed majority next time with a view to taking it the time after”
yes, theoretically speaking it’s a good plan. However a potential uncertainty can be if Lab lose the next GE and it will be out of power: what will happen in that case can be difficult to forecast (depending on how Lab would adapt to opposition)
86 Oh I agree. They’ll go all out to win as they did in Cardiff Central in 2001, but I think like there they would come up just short unless the tide really was then against Labour. Even if Labour are in opposition we’ll see. Much may depend how much their activist base is eroded or not next year