Could Lembit solve Ming’s London problem?
July 30th, 2007
Is this the man to take on Boris and Ken?
While all the focus has been on Cameron’s poll ratings little attention has been paid to Ming Campbell’s position. Last Friday’s YouGov poll had Lib Dem supporters saying by 54% - 24% that he should be replaced by someone younger.
On the list of Ming’s current problems is next May’s London mayoral election and finding a candidate who’ll manage to get noticed amidst all the media focus on Ken and Boris. A disaster for the LDs next May in London is going to put further pressure on his leadership.
Who can they choose who has what it takes to get more than a rare look-in when the media are likely to be obsessed with Johnson-Livingstone confrontation?
Until the Boris as candidate notion emerged Ming’s party could take comfort from the problems David Cameron was having finding someone to be the Tory flag carrier. But now that has all changed and the party needs someone good with electoral appeal to be in place very quickly.
A characteristic of this election is that it is very personal and in the last battle in 2004 about one in four of the voters who had supported the Lib Dems in the London Authority elections switched to Ken for the mayoral. With two high profile candidates in the frame for the main parties you could see even more seepage of the Lib Dem vote.
One possibility that is being talked about within the party is Lembit Opik who is eloquent, great with the media and has what appears to be a main requirement for the role - a colourful reputation! Lembit is also hugely ambitious and with no element of self doubt.
But would Lembit run? One factor is that he has got an eye on the next Lib Dem leadership contest and running for mayor would certainly increase his profile amongst the party membership. He might even look more serious when compared with Boris. Lembit might just be tempted.
Mike Smithson
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oh just for the comedy value should lembit run, more seriously a ken/boris/opik contest would at least get rid of the old adage for voter apathy that they are all the same.
Now I would have said a few weeks ago that this would be stupid for the lib dems to do - but somehow (it still amazes me personally) boris seems to be doing well in the polls and as a result the lib dems are gonna get nothing in this and be embaressed. But with opik they would get some publicity and thats what they need most. Best of all if it goes t!ts up then you can just blame opik!
The lib dems are caught betwene a rock and a hard place on this, with the exception of dyke, they are gonna be an irelevance and whats worse suffer a heavy defeat. So why not go for it, and I tell you something it would really make it a cracking election.
So far as I can recall, Simon Hughes ran last time on a policy of holding some festival or other that he’d seen in New York. Unless the LibDems have some actual policies this time, they may as well not bother.
One possibility that is being talked about within the party is Lembit Opik
Really? People have run over a few names but I’ve never heard this one.
I don’t think he has got an eye on the next leadership election.
An eye on the leadership?
The man who boycotted the Welsh coalition talks in favour of recording HIGNFY?
If I didn’t know you were a LibDem Mike I’d be calling you on bias!
If he was attacked from both sides he could always ‘turn the other cheek’.
Presumably a bid to use the London Mayor elections to expose the totally meaningless state of politics today? They could print the ballot coupons on the inside cover of ‘Hello’.
“he has got an eye on the next Lib Dem leadership contest”
Surely as Mark Oaten’s only backer last time out, his 62 other colleagues would be giving him ‘nul points’for political judgement. Or could he be eased in by Eurovision votes from the Estonian and Transylvanian juries?
Interested to see that Mark Seddon (ex-Tribune, NEC) is still trying to make life uncomfortable for Blair - pointing out that Blair’s Middle East envoy role is being funded solely by the Americans, using that favourite Blair vehicle, “a trust”. Ironic use of “trust” and “Blair” in same sentence…
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/17AB677F-05D0-43A0-8B63-D607ED8D0F45.htm
A bit more of “the debt the world owes to the United States for its leadership”, eh Mr Brown?
Oh, and here is Al Jazeera’s take on Brown’s visit to meet Bush. Brown’s gonna come to hate that photo…
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9F8F0288-5804-4640-82D1-A1A8833769C5.htm
8.
Blair in Bush’s pocket?
Nothing new there then!
I’m on the selection panel and I’ve heard quite a few names (including quite a few familiar from outside the world of politics) but Lembit’s isn’t one of them.
9.
Brown: “I thought when you went for a round of Golf you got to choose your own driver?”
Bush: “I’m just putting you in your place”
Voices off (from the Tel Aviv Hilton): “Chipper!”
9 - the pictures certainly don’t suggest a great deal of early personal chemistry. Brown looks absolutely petrified! “Keep your eyes on the road, man!”
Picture of Lembit and Co. must be a slow news day, the silly season has arrived!
The Lib Dems are not going to do well in the mayoral race - Hughes was their best bet and he gave it a fair go - the next race will only see them do worse.
They’d be better off running a serious non-entity and not trying to hype their non-existent chances, simply keeping a low profile and using the contest to do a bit of constituency mapping for the General.
Lembit Opik serious - aye right!
I can assure you Lembit has no ambitions for the leadership of the Lib Dems, despite what he said in the aftermath of Kennedy’s toppling. Opik has his eyes set on the party presidency.
It would be a mistake for the LDs to draft a so-called “personality” to contest the election against Ken and Boris.
If I were a LD strategist, I would first of all say “why bother?” when there is no chance of a look-in regardless of the LD candidate because of the Ken/Boris axis. It would be a significant drain on resources.
In the circumstances, a token candidate would be better. Defeat is a certainty, but candidate X could use it as an opportunity to play the “serious politics” card… not something the LDs are known for. But it would be very useful for the future. While the other two parties engage in celebrity warfare, the LDs could be parroting themantra “we are the only serious party”.
Worth a go, innit? What are their other options, seriously?
As for the identity of Serious, but as-yet-Anonymous Candidate X… well… it wouldn’t do Lynne Featherstone any harm if she were to give Ken and Boris a kick in the ballots…
17 - thanks for saying what I said but in 4 times as many words
18 - I have always been a most verbose individual… but hey, at least I suggested an alternative candidate!
15. Seems pretty sensible. The Lib Dems can’t expect a great result out of the London mayoral election with the competition in the field, so it makes sense to use the occasion to promote a candidate with more of a future, rather than one with an already overly healthy past.
While Ken has had a reputation as a maverick, he’s also recognised in the job and that gives him political weight; Boris too has a colourful reputation, but can point to both genuine political campaigns rallying against PC nonsense (for example) and has written a number of serious books which shows a certain level of substance to him outside his work as an MP. Lembit’s problem on that score is that while he ticks the eccentric and celebrity boxes, he has little to offset it in more traditional political terms. Boris’ constituency is at least close to London; Lembit’s is in Wales and while he has other good links to Northern Ireland and the North-East, his credibility as a Londoner is less well founded.
The Libdems should be looking for a candidate, who is not necessarily a politician, but has links to the Libdems. Someone with a London and media background well connected etc, and a woman! ‘Emma Freud’ high name recognition at least.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_Freud
20 Yes, it’s the Londoner bit that kills the idea stone dead, isn’t it David?
Livingstone is a genuine Londoner (and a proven administrator to boot, maverick or no). Boris has London connections of sorts, and a strong public persona. Lembit? Frayed knot.
Btw, is it true voting is restricted to all those born within the sound of Bow Bells?
20 They can have a chance of a great result but only if Dyke stands either as an official Lib Dem candidate or more likely a Martin Bell style Lib Dem backed independent. Lembit I think could put up a decent showing, but he would still likely come third, and it would make him far more vulnerable back home among his constituents in Montgomeryshire I think
18 -
Basically, if I was the Lib Dems I’d be choosing a PPC they have lined up in a winnable London seat to boost that person’s profile and use it to focus on the General generally…
23 - that’s a fair comment. Lembit standing in London is very dangerous. He might have a tough election on his hands if Glyn Davies gives him a proper run for his money, and he certainly wouldn’t want to hand such an early “this man is not local!” gift to the Tories.
24 - good point. A PPC may be a better idea after all. Especially if they’re very ambitious…
23/4. I was going to suggest a PPC earlier. However, with the odds of a May general election next year, that would prove difficult - as it would for Boris, but at least he has such a healthy majority in Henley that he he’d be almost certain to get back in there even if he lost in London.
26 When do the Lib Dems have to select by for LM though. If it’s quite late we should know how strong the likelihood of a Spring GE is, and therefore whether a PPC could risk it. Depending on the Polls it maybe possible they can
If nothing else what other candidate could boast this, immortalised in London Rhyming slang
http://www.londonslang.com/db/e/
Have I missed something? Thought Boris hadn’t even got the Tory selection yet? Only that he has been the subject of media / silly season hype. Assuming that is still the position, I think we will see a much more “serious” Tory candidate in the end. I think Lembit is more ambitious within the Parliamentary party, and would realise that this would be an adventure too many away from the mainstream - God knows, he has had enough of those already!
Go Emma go, with credentials like that, unbeatable!
Ken beat all three party candidates as an independant and this was during Blair’s honeymoon and he’s more popular now than he was then. He’s also the shrewdest politician around after his experience in the ’70’s and ’80’s even running rings around Thatch. Boris is almost an insult as an opponent Lebit would be more so. The only chance of causing Ken discomfort would be a high profile independant with ideas. Someone like Dyke or Geldof or Grade
No. A really absurd idea to put Lembit, Welsh/Estonian, up for London mayor.
We should have a serious London candidate, one of our attracive London women, Lynne Featherstone, Susan Kramer(again) or Jenny Tonge; all far better than Lembit. Why is it assumed it must be a man?
As to any leadership pretensions Lembit may have, these are equally absurd. There are far stronger candidates.
The unshiftable Ming is there to stay until a general election, and then, fortunately, under party rules there has to be a leadership election very shortly after; It would be astonishing if Ming is unopposed; we couldn’t possibly go on with him into a new parliament.
There seems to be a mismatch between the leadership the parliamentary party requires to hold itself together,and the more youthful dynamic leadership the party grassroots would like.
Beth
Jenny Tonge? Are you mad. Isn’t she the one that got sacked by CK for comments about suicide bombers
Spoonerism Smithson?
Could London solve Ming’s Lembit Problem?
PS Is there a picture of Boris Piffle with the cheeky girls? Mike Read had one.
Come on Punter, please, a little less tabloidesque populism, a little more thought here! I know that being presented with names like Boris and Lembit does rather take it down to a “celeb” level! You are talking about a serious - and popular - ex-London MP here.
31. I agree with Roger 100%.
Much as I adore Boris, as a maverick backbench politician, who does wonders for Tory profile and politics in general, he is a joke candidate for the Mayoralty and a sure way of securing third place for the Tories. I do hope Tory voters in the primary will see sense and pick one of the other three, thus securing a worthy and creditable second place at least. I don’t know any of the other 3, but only one of them (the woman I think) has a sensible sounding name, so I’d plump for her.
No doubt Lib Dem and Labour activists will be voting for Boris en masse in the primary…
Mike, ” He might even look more serious when compared with Boris.”
You just can not be serious!
Ming is in trouble, but for the media that is not the story. However it seems to be inside the Liberal Democrats.
I can’t see Liberal Democrats going for Lembit in London either.
Delightful article from Tim Hames in the Times.
On George Osborne: “Shadow Chancellors, like Chancellors, are supposed to have the air of a bank manager about them. Who wants to turn up to their local Barclays or NatWest to ask for a loan and be confronted with someone who looks 14, seems immensely pleased with himself and has a voice that might qualify him for a Bee Gees tribute group, sitting behind the manager’s desk?” How true.
And re Cameron, he says at least Michael Howard had some right-wing populism about him. He says going from Howard to Cameron is like having Julian Clary replace Arnie as the Terminator! Ouch!
If the LDs had any sense they’d go after Greg Dykes. He’s a proven manager unlike Boris without the baggage of Livingstone. He has decent name recognition and would turn the mayor’s election into a genuine three horse race. Obviously he’d need to work on his name recognition but it’s reasonable already.If Dykes came second on the first ballot, by no means an impossibility, he would surely win as Tory second votes propelled him over the top.
Opik, by contrast, is a completely incredible candidate who would come a poor third and damage the LDs in the Capital. The idea that he would be a candidate for the leadership is laughable if the LDs still want to be seen as a serious Party. It’s surely Clegg versus Huhne. For some unfathomable reason Mike has a downer on Clegg but I think he’d be by far their best bet.
37.
“You just can not be serious!”
Benedict, compared with Boris, John McEnroe would seem serious. Or Kermit the Frog…. Bart Simpson…..
Susan Kramer as a complete unknown did respectably, especially given that there were four main candidates - including Ken, then independent. Simon Hughes’ result was actually worse, as there were only three candidates.
Lembit as a candidate is ridiculous. He’d lose badly, and it may be bye-bye Montgomery too. He’s every bit as much a liability of a candidate as Boris Johnson.
As for serious LD candidates - what’s the news on Brian Paddick? Emma Freud is an interesting idea too - but surely this is kite-flying - would she be interested. Is she a LD? Her partner is Richard Curtis who is, I believe, very Labour.
I’d vote for the cheeky girls.
OT Scotland exempt from Brown’s fly-the-flag plan
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=471623&in_page_id=1770
39 I have said consistently, he is their only hope either formally in their Colours or backed by them.
35 If you say she’s popular I’ll take your word for it. But if she was dismissed by CK for comments concerning suicide bombers, I find it improbable that Campbell would then allow her to be the LD candidate in a City that has been the victim of such attacks. She is not even darkly comic. She would threaten serious damage to the LDs IMHO at least
39: “he’d need to work on his name recognition”
Yup - starting with you, it’s Dyke, not Dykes….
39 / 43 - What is this about Greg Dyke?! Why would anyone think he would be particularly popular? I really dont get it at all.
jon c LOL It’s a fair cop; need to improve my proof reading!
39 The reason is not unfathomable at all. It is because Clegg stood aside for Ming and threw his weight behind him. Mr S thinks this was a serious mistake and blames Clegg for helping to make it happen
Punter. If that’s really the reason he should get over it. Sulking about someone’s positioning in the last leadership race is a ridiculous reason for refusing to consider someone for the next race. And Clegg was hardly alone in backing MC who won fairly easily as I recall.
47 - I do wonder if there is bad blood between Huhne and Clegg over Huhne running and Clegg not. Bit like Portillo and the Vulcan…
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PS - If Yokel posts, can somebody please ensure his attention is drawn to this message. I am at work and do not have his email address here.
I think Mikes objection to Clegg is that he’s seriously illiberal. From a political point of view I’d think he’d be a ggod choice. He’s got everything Cameron has got but in every case a bit more. He’s even shown signs of having a political philosophy which gives him an edge.
Again I can’t urge enough people-Tories in particular-to read AC’s book. Policy and strategy are the driving force behind everything. To hope to win without either is like trying to win an F1 Grand Prix without a car.
I can’t see what the argument is here: its got to be Emma Freud. Daughter of Sir Clement Freud, onetime Liberal MP, her brother is Matthew Freud married to Rupert Murdoch’s daughter Elisabeth, her partner is Richard Curtis, you’ve got the media and luvvie vote wrapped up. Her name, ‘Touch of the Emma Freud’s’ is rhyming slang for haemorrhoids. can’t get more London than that!. She’s really tasty, the Libdems would be mad not to sign her up. ‘Mike do yourself a bit of Christmas, get on the dog, to yer governer, sign ‘er up’
[51] Beth [32] - Lembit isn’t Welsh, he’s an Ulsterman. Once a carpetbagger, always a…
51. How is Clegg “seriously illiberal”?
[53] Sorry, Roger, that [51] crept in by mistake. I’m still half asleep. it appears to be the half with the brain in it…
53 - Lembit must be a Protestant rather than a Catholic name
The LDs should choose Paddy Ashdown if he was willing. The only thing is, Paddy only likes to take jobs where he has the power to dismiss the President or Prime Minister
. Seriously, Paddy could beat Borris to 3rd place and then beat Ken on transfers. Lemibit would be an interesting candidate but it would make the whole contest a bit of a celebrity love-in.
However, I think the most realistic chance is to act a a counterweight to the celebrity duo and offer a serious but relatively unknown candidate who will run on policy rather then personality. There are a lot of moderate voters out there who dont like Ken, but think that Borris is a buffoon. Lynne Featherstone is a serious possibility. (A woman candidate would be a good idea.)
If Lembit stands they may as well give Montgomery to the Tories now.
Lembit would make Boris and Ken look like serious statemen.
[57] Yes, I think the LDs only chance of avoiding humiliation is to select a woman, assuming that Boris and Ken get their parties’ nominations. But I don’t see what’s in it for Lynne Featherstone, too much to lose. A PPC or an intelligent celeb (if that’s what the Emma Freud “write-in” vote here is all about) seems a much better bet.
Has there been a poll on Londoners’ attitude to the Olympic Games? (Said he, taking his hobby horse out of the toy cupboard and dusting it down.) An anti-Games independent could attract 10-15% of the vote IMHO, leaving the others with the awkward option of seeking to attract his/her transfers or loftily ignoring them and hoping that their opponents do the same…
56 Isnt Lembit Estonian?
So possibly Lutheran, probably atheist.
61. Sorry, agnostic.
Here is Lembit flying the Estonian flag (on his tie)
http://www.sloleht.ee/index.aspx?id=231602&rss=1
Red Flump Tim Hames is a bandwagon journalist. In trying to find new spin against Cameron he comes out with this gem: Cameron, he says,
“seems to have swung bemusingly from hug-a-hoodie to hang-a-hoodie, and is demanding a referendum on an EU treaty that is not yet finalised”.
The first is fantasy. If it were true all the UKIPers and Tuftons would be singing his praises.
As for the second, Hames, as usual, seems unaware of the reality - that the treaty has been available since Thursday but only in French. The government issued copies in that language to parliament.
Contempt or carelessness?
Red Flump Tim Hames is a bandwagon journalist. In trying to find new spin against Cameron he comes out with this gem: Cameron, he says,
“seems to have swung bemusingly from hug-a-hoodie to hang-a-hoodie, and is demanding a referendum on an EU treaty that is not yet finalised”.
The first is fantasy. If it were true all the UKIPers and Tuftons would be singing Dave’s praises.
As for the second, Hames, as usual, seems unaware of the reality - that the treaty has been available since Thursday but only in French. The government issued copies in that language to parliament.
Contempt or carelessness?
Running an unknown PPC smacks of unwarrented egotism, and if my local candidate did that then they wouldn’t get my vote. The “local choice” who is despirate to get on the greasy pole in whatever way possible? No thanks.
Better to choose a principled individual who can do for London what MC does at PMQs - solid (well, recently) core issue libertarian questions. Ego vs. Buffoon vs. Decent human being. Even if they lost it would get good coverage as the papers attacked the cult of personality.
60 Completely disagree. See 23
9 - As someone who always notes body language observing the Brown/Bush relationship was telling, as in it’s exactly the same as with Blair. When they were walking towards camera Bush looked straight ahead, Brown kept glancing at Bush. This subconscious action tells us much more than any conscious pronouncements.
Emma Freud, partner of labour supporting Richard Curtis? Hmm, that could backfire badly. I think the suggestion of a PPC in a winnable seat is much better, someone who can forensically take Livingstone apart. Anybody know who fits that bill?
In fairness, Tim Hames has been hostile to Cameron from the start (surprisingly IMHO).
51 - Clegg ’seriously illiberal’. Hahahahahahah……
Excuse me while I try and stop myself from laughing!
You want illiberal, then look at the new labour party.
66 “Ego vs. Buffoon vs. Decent human”
He dumped Sian Lloyd for a cheeky girl. I’d be interested if she would agree - or what any woman dumped for a younger model?
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2083886.ece
If I were the Lib Dems, I’d also be looking at using the platform to get exposure for a London GE candidate, but possibly concentrate more realistically on retaining their hold, rather than maknig gains.
Isn’t Sarah Teather basically going to have to win a Labour seat all over again on the new boundaries? Someone like that who needs a boost would seem like the logical choice. (And if there is a snap GE in the near future, I would expect her to lose her seat anyway).
72 What makes you think I was talking about Lembit?
73 - Good suggestion, Teather would be able to advance her cause in the new seat, she would be a change from the other two and she can give as good as she gets in a debate. Is anyone close to these things able to give a hint or two?
“I think the suggestion of a PPC in a winnable seat is much better, someone who can forensically take Livingstone apart. Anybody know who fits that bill? ”
Bridget Fox? Ed Fordham? Sarah Teather? Jo Shaw?
74 What makes you think I was talking about Lembit?
75. ” she can give as good as she gets in a debate”
Teather goes from decent performances to out of depth performances where you would almost question her suitability to be a parish councillor
65. Another example of the pathetic rubbish which passes for political journalism in the UK.
54, 71 - Don’t pay any attention to it. Socialists are always telling that x isn’t liberal, if he doesn’t conform to their views. But really what do the socialists know about liberalism, usually they seem to think that only socialists should be able to call themselves “liberal”. But they are two very different ideologies, whether the socialists liked it or not.
Mike - I assume you are still on holiday and have imbibed too much ‘local produce’. The idea of Lembit standing for one of the most powerful jobs in the country is almost as ridiculous as the concept of Boris Johnson standing.
London deserves a serious contest between serious candidates, not media junkies.
There is a big difference between celebrity and popularity and it is to the shame of new Labour that one of their legacies is the confusion of the two.
56 - As far as I know, the Estonian name “Lembit” stems from pre-christian era, and means something like “beloved one” or “lover”.
81 - Please, Lembit is far more ridiculous than Boris and a good deal less likeable too.
76 Haven’t heard of the others apart from Teather. Who are they
84. PPC for Islington South, Hampsted and Kilburn and Holborn and St Pancras.
I don’t really know any of them, so I don’t know if they “fit the bill” proposed by ukpaul..but they were the first PPCs in winnable London seats I recalled
85. Thanks picked you up again on Sean Fear’s thread I think
65. Tim Hames is a fat, ugly, Nu-Labour twit of the first water.
A few months ago he was still cheerleading the Iraq war. Indeed he is so gung-ho for further invasions he said: ‘If the Americans proposed invading Neptune I think the British should be there with them’.
I think we can take his prognostications with a pinch of salt - and a side-salad of incredulity, dressed with a vinaigrette of derision.
85 Briget Fox is competent and very active - I dont know if that “fits the bill” though. She stands a good chance of winning Islington South next time anyway. 500-odd votes and some decent campaigning is what she needs, not running around talking about the olympics and crossrail.
I dont understand this PPC idea. Wouldn’t it just look completely amateurish?
87 - he was bang-on about Osborne though.
Lembit would at least have Londoners prepared for an asteroid hit…
Not another Old Estonian….
54 and 71. ‘Why is Clegg illiberal’?
Possibly because he was trying to outdo John Reid on the ‘foreigners’ not being deported story? He certainly outbid David Davis and almost John Reid!
Nonetheless I’m only trying to answer for why Mike S doesn’t like Clegg and from memory he complained about Liberal tactics over the prisoner releases (which in my opinion he was quite right to do). But maybe there’s another reason?
89. Yes, he is “bang on” about Osborne, but then, being “bang on” about Osborne doesn’t take the Wisdom of Solomon.
I said - and I wasn’t alone - many months ago that the appointment of Osborne was a mistake by Cameron. The guy is obviously smart, but he’s too young and posh and puppyish to serve in a major Front Bench position next to a leader who is also young and posh and puppyish.
It makes the Tories look juvenile and, well, posh - and opens them up to the class-hatred attacks of Labour. The fact that Cameron couldn’t see this is worrying for Tories.
Osborne needs five years, at least, in a less high profile position, to knock some of the annoying gloss off him.
Rifkind would have made a good Shadow Chancellor.
maybe they can fill the top candidate for 2009 Euro Parliament (Baroness Ludford can’t stand again) and so boosting his/her profile for following year’s Euro Elections hoping to improve London score and trying to get a second Euro seat (the reduction of 1 seat in London isn’t helpful for their quest for a second seat, but still achievable).
91. should say ‘Foreign prisoners’
61-63 - I was being ironic in suggesting Lembit was a Catholic name. Estonia is pretty Lutheran - my wife was baptised there.
It could be fun having the Etonian v the Estonian.
I believe than Sian dumped Lembit not vice-versa. Paddy would be a great candidate, but he’d never want it.
92 - seanT - Why is it that so many Tories on this site think Osborne is a genius?
96. Dunno. Do they?? Can’t say I’ve noticed that..
Osborne is undoubtedly clever, but he’s just too like DC. A good chancellor should be a foil to the premier, the straight man to the charismatic leader (or sometimes vice versa). Think of Thatcher and Howe. Blair and Brown. Robert Plant and Jimmy Page. They were good teams.
Incidentally I have doubts about Brown and Darling, on the same score. One enormously boring man with Asperger’s syndrome next to another enormously boring man with Asperger’s syndrome.
This is one of the reasons I think the shine will come off New New Labour (now with extra gravitas!) in the coming months. They are monumentally dull. People do like a period of dullness after political excitement. But they like it for about five minutes. As a breather. A pit-stop. Then they get very bored and irritated by it.
That’s what happened to Major. It will happen to Brown.
Cameron and Osborne’s entire strategy rested upon them rubbishing Gordon before he became PM. This lowered expectations to the point where Gordon could impress people by simply walking in a straight line! They began to believe their own propaganda. The fact that a lot of them actually believed in those spurious “tory lead to soar once Brown is PM” polls just shows how ropey their judgement is. They all shout “oh, but OF COURSE Gordon would get a bounce - we never said anything else!” However, their nerves seem to have been shot to pieces by a few opinion polls. Doesn’t take much for the Tories to turn, does it?
98. Yes. It was a clear tactical error to rubbish Brown so heartily, when he is very obviously a smart and capable man, albeit a tad creepy, and scared of golf carts.
But maybe the Tory rubbishing-of-Brown was a double-bluff - done in the hope that Labour would ditch the Chancellor. If so, they should have realised it would never work.
I think its a disgrace - Britain is under water and Gordo is swanning off to talk to a Texan about a war in the middle east - surely the Daily Mail will highlight this gross neglect of duty on tomorrows front page ?
99 - Yes Sean, I think they were trying to get us to dump Gordy for Miliband - like that would ever happen!
99 - It’s playing the long game as, after an initial honeymoon, Brown will start to be judged more closely by the media. The way that Brown can stop the tory strategy is to call an election before the end of the year, the tory strategy hinges on eating away at Brown and this would circumvent it.
101 - Miliband would be a much more difficult opponent; his approach to his portfolio has been excellent so far and he has cultivated a more human persona. The difference between him and someone like Reid, Beckett and Blunkett could be measured in light years.
101. “… Gordy for Miliband - like that would ever happen”. Almost certain, methinks, in about 6 years time.
Miliband would have been far too lightweight to make an effective leader.
I agree with Red Flump and Sean T that this was a big tactical error.
The next Labour leader market is an interesting one. Jacqui Smith looks a tasty bet, if she can last a while as Home Secretary.
104. Or the 6th of May next year ?
All the focus at present is on The Tories poor poll ratings.By the end of 2007 as the Brown honeymoon wanes the Tory’s will recover.
The Lib dems are the ones with real worry-ratings consistently below the 2005 election and no events on the horizon that are likely to improve them.
The best suggestion so far for Mayoral candidate is Lynn Featherstone(..Though Dick Whittington and his cat could be a runner)
Rogerh
104. Labour may well win a fourth term, but they will not win a fifth term. I think that’s a pretty safe bet. The disgust that will have built up by then, the sheer boredom, irritation, contempt and ennui, will ensure that the Tories win even if they are led by a blow-up sex-doll.
I think even if Labour introduce PR or something, the Tories would still win the fifth time round. It’s just the law of the pendulum, and the sense that ‘it’s time to give the others a go’.
So if Miliband takes over - and he has a good chance - he will be in opposition. Will Cameron still be leading the Tories?
105 - It’s probably best for Miliband to be leader after Brown given that people tend to want a differing personality from the previous leader, hence Thatcher to Major, Blair to Brown, Wilson to Heath to Wilson etc. He would, however, have provided a much more difficult target for the tories, being of a different generation and not to be tarred with the things that Brown will be.
109. Who is going to beat Miliband in 2012/13?
111. Practically anyone. Nick Griffin. Ronald McDonald. Truman Capote’s bizarrely longlived cockatoo.
Labour will be booted out of office bigtime, if they make it as far as 2012. Law of British democracy.
Not that it will matter by then, as we will be governed by fiat from Brussels.
“the Etonian v the Estonian”…
like it!
112. What a prat you are. Don’t bother to respond, I’m out of here.
111 - James Purnell? Yvette Cooper?
114: ‘What a prat you are. Don’t bother to respond, I’m out of here.’
I’m sure you’ll be sorely missed.
It seems as if the accepted wisdom is that the Brown poll lead will fade by Christmas. I tend to agree somewhat, but what if it doesn’t? What will Cammy & co do if Labour are 6,7 or even 8% ahead in January?
117. Resign and support IDS to be the comeback kid with Mark Oaten as deputy.4
87: ‘Tim Hames is a fat, ugly, Nu-Labour twit of the first water.’
Shame, really. Years ago I used to find Hames an amusing writer. Then he decided to style himself as a new-lab-neo-con court jester and sadly, but correctly, forfeited any claim to be taken seriously.
112. Did I miss something? Duh?
The Cheeky Girls would make wonderful cheerleaders for Lembit.
I can also feel a campaign single being released.
I have managed to obtain leaked lyrics:
All boys vote for cheeky boy
All girls vote for cheeky boy
All boys vote for cheeky boy
All girls vote for cheeky boy
Cheeky Lembit’s not limp
We should remember
We’ve seen the member
Cheeky boy is not a wimp
We should remember
We’ve seen the member
London Mayor: he’ll put up a fight
He’ll save us from a meteorite
He’s had weather girls
And cheeky girls
The member for Montgomeryshire
He’s the man whose rising higher
Come and smile, don’t be shyer
Touch my bum in his election.
(bottom wriggling routine)
We are the cheeky girls
We are the cheeky girls
Opik is the cheeky boy
Boris and Ken: we don’t care
Vote Lembit Opik for London Mayor
(batton twirling routine)
Ooooooooooooh
OT: Sorry if this has already been asked, but what are the likely/possible dates for polling day if Brown does go fo an October election?
122 - the twelth of Never
Ain’t gonna happen.
121 - fantastic. Do we really think he’s had/having them both though?
122 - October 25th, called on the 4th, 3 week campaign.
Dinky gets angry..and call LDs “shits”
http://www.newstatesman.com/200707300007
112. Sean T. Fiat is from Turin not Brussels.
125 - is this an oblique reference to Mark Oaten?
121 123 How would he know who he was shagging anyway?
Its like sleeping with Jeremy Irons in Dead Ringers…
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094964/
…but im guessing it will end more like Audition.
121. It can’t compete with the song Kate Bush wrote about Ken Livingstone:
We look to the left and to the right
We need help but nobody’s in sight
Where is the man that we all need
Well tell him he’s to come and rescue me
Chorus:
Do do ‘n do do ‘n do dow
Do do ‘n do do ‘n do dow
Ken is the man that we all need
Ken is the leader of the GLC
Now head ‘em up
Rope ‘em in
Move ‘em out
Now can’t you see
That we need the leader of the GLC
Do do ‘n do do ‘n do dow
Do do ‘n do do ‘n do dow
Ken is the man that we all need
Ken is the leader of the GLC
Who is the man we all need?
(KEN!!)
Who is the funky sex machine?
(KEN!!)
Who is the leader of the GLC?
(KEN!!)
Who is the man we all need?
(KEN!!)
125 From Sean Fear’s thread: “86 Oh I agree. They’ll go all out to win as they did in Cardiff Central in 2001, but I think like there they would come up just short unless the tide really was then against Labour. Even if Labour are in opposition we’ll see. Much may depend how much their activist base is eroded or not next year
by Punter July 29th, 2007 at 12:06 pm “
Andrea: looks like the LDs hit a raw nerve there! Tellingly, the NewStatesman did its own diggin to heap the “shit” on Cameron too. Conservative MPs dont like being reminded of their voting records. Thank heavens for publicwhip.org etc.
Seant admitting Labour could win a fourth term, don’t think, he gave much for their chances, a few months ago. Can’t wait for half way throught Labour’s fourth, when Seant admits, ‘They may win a fifth, but they won’t win a sixth’ (Stand by for a stream of invective, vicious, but superbly put) BTW in case I haven’t mentioned it, Emma Freud is the obvious choice for the Libdem candidate for London Mayor, get on with it Libdems.
132 - What’s your source for knowing that she’s a lib dem member?
Going for Brown’s personality was not a tactical mistake. it was a strategic decision laying down a line that will self resurrect at some point in the future and seem ever so recognisable to the electorate as a result, especially as most of the evidence and malevolence came from within the Labour party itself. And like all attacks that are effective it is based on truth and will be demonstrable.
The simultaneous attack on Brown’s record as Chancellor and co-PM will also ratchet up over the next few months, and like the doubts over his character, will blossom into electoral problems when the time is right.
And that time is when the government gets into trouble. Oppositions can press and preen and speechify laying the ground work as much as they like but real damage is done to a government only when there is a festering wound to work your political fingers into. That is the real world of politics. Not nice but well demonstrated by Labour over the last twelve years.
Labour have been laying down the charge of Dave being policy-lite and a PR man not a man of substance for nearly 18 months now, and only now is it paying off in terms of giving the talent free hacks something to chunter about.
Brown’s turn will come. There are signs already, not least the article from Gisela Stuart yesterday and Frank Field earlier, as well the article in the Times that Red Flump didn’t flag ” Gordon the going backwards PM’ and the news today that MPs of all parties are not convinced about extending the detention without trial period beyond 28 days.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2158137.ece
132
I doesn’t matter if she is or not, membership of a political party, is not a requirement to run as a candidate. You can be signed up then run, Tony Lit did, and I’m sure plenty of others have to.
132.Poor political point that. I remember in the 1992 to 1997 parliament many Labour inclined Journo’s and even MP’s saying the Tories could win a Fifth.
As they say Governments usually lose elections - oppositions don’t normally win them!!! Most media speculated that the tories “could” win in 1997. We have the same sort of thing in play for 1978 and Jim Callaghan bottled it - Somehow i doubt it, i think the IMF loan thing etc sowed the seeds. The winter of discontent was the icing on the cake.
Labour could win another election but i think there likelyhood is less than currently proposed by Labour’s exponents. There is nothing diffinitive either way until the GE is called and the votes are cast.
Unfortunately Witan, the vast majority of the Labour party supports the fact that Gordon is putting the brakes on further public sector involvement with the public services. This was all very Blairite orthodoxy which can quietly be junked. Well done Gordon.
Stewart and Field are just disgruntled and embittered. She should be focussing on holding her seat, not slagging off Gordon.
The perception is hardening of Cameron being a non-entity PR man. A nice guy, but trying to be Blair when the public want nothing like that anymore.
New thread - “Could Gordon torpedo the Tory EU lifeboat?”
134. I agree with what you say there. The Tories highlighted Brown’s publically alleged flaws by his work mates. The Tories also highlighted what Brown is responsible for directly i.e. Pensions, Higher Taxes, increased business regulation, environment and NHS budget cuts + distortion of budgets and a road block to the reform agenda etc(Which he seems to have been bloking for his own interest not the national interest). I think that the Tories have also earmarked Brown’s consistant tendency to spin and try and decieve the electorate.
It was interesting that i was drinking with some “swing” voters who said they thought Brown was now alright. I reminded them of what he had done in the past (as above) and how Brown is merely talking about parliament whereas he has neglected it for many years i.e. his voting record 18%!!!
At the end of the evening the floating voters tended to agree that Brown tended to be more spin than substance, a deciever and a manipulator. The passable evening they started the evening with declined into quite a depth of contempt. They were drinking orange juice (No vodka!!!).
Re 87, SeanT “I think we can take his prognostications with a pinch of salt - and a side-salad of incredulity, dressed with a vinaigrette of derision.”
Tim Haimes not your favorite writer then?
Seriously good piece of invective their!
140. I could not agree more with SeanT’s description.
Running for London Mayor while trying to hold a rural welsh seat is hubris. We should go for Teather or Featherstone. If it is Ken vs Boris they’ll be a gap in the market for a non celebrity woman. Featherstone dug up a number of bodies when she was on the GLA and the name recognition boost would really help her.
If she could be persuaded to stand Shami Chakribati of LIBERTY would give both Ken and Boris a run for there money.
125.
“Dinky call LDs “shits””
Coming from where it does, this is surely a term of endearment? One expects Blue members hurtling towards Lib Dems in droves.