Has the Brown bounce run out of steam?
July 31st, 2007
And bleak news for the Lib Dems from Populus and CR
There are still lots of smiling Gordons to illustrate our main article this morning but not quite on the same scale as recent polls have suggested. The surveys are from two pollsters who have hardly figured as successive YouGov and ICM polls have reported big leads for Labour in the past three weeks.
Populus in the Times has with comparisons on its last poll at the start of the month CON 33% (-1): LAB 39% (+2): LD 15% (-3)
Communicate Research in the Independent has compared with its last survey carried out before Gordon moved into Number 10 CON 34% (-3): LAB 37% (+5): LD 16% (-2)
Both pollsters operate in a similar manner. Both use the telephone and very often their fieldwork is carried out by ICM; both use past vote weighting to ensure politically balanced samples and both give a value to voting intention responses based on how likely it is that respondents say they will vote.
Compared with ICM Populus operate a past vote weighting formula that is slightly more favourable to Labour. So if today’s survey had used ICM weightings my back of an envelope calculation suggests that we would be seeing a 4% or 5% Labour lead.
A key factor in the CR poll is that just 47% of Labour supporters said they were “certain to vote” compared with 64% of Tories and 53% of the Lib Dems. As far as I can see the Labour proportion of “certains” is the lowest in any CR poll this year. At the end of April, just before the local elections, the pollster found that 67% of Labour supporters were in the “certain” category.
So while Labour has expanded significantly its overall base of support since Gordon came the newer supporters might be less certain of their intention - suggesting volatility
There will of course be comparisons with the YouGov poll in Friday which had Gord’s party 9% ahead. The internet pollster does not weight by whether people say they are certain to vote and this possibly explains why its lead is so much larger.
The big losers this morning are undoubtedly the Lib Dems who have seen drops in their shares from both firms - further confirmation that a number of Labour supporters are returning home now that Tony Blair is not leading them.
These new numbers should slightly ease the pressure on Cameron and my guess will make a 2007 general election less likely. The range of general election betting markets is here.
Mike Smithson
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Hello from the US, where I’m spending this week (nothing to do with GB’s visit). I said last week after the 9% that I expected that to be the crest of the wave for a while - it was taken immediately after the Rwanda controversy. Going into the recess with a 5-6% lead looks a plausible Labour position at this point.
I can’t summon the energy on holiday to read the 260 posts on the previous thread but the fact that the 9% Labour lead in YouGov coincided with the large majority for the Tory position on the referendum says it all - people tend to disagree with the government about it, but not to feel strongly enough to make their vote hinge on it. I can well imagine Britain being difficult in the final stages for negotiating purposes, but doubt if we’ll actually torpedo the deal.
Details are here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2169854.ece
The flood issue has clearly affected people’s view of DC negatively. Both polls seem to suggest a Labour surge among low-turnout DE voters (the Times poll also shows an improvement among professionals), which as Mike says will not have been reflected as much using CR’s methodology.
Nick - I am not so sure that the lack of referendum won’t change voting intentions. It is great campaigning issue, and can be used to reinforce other reasons for changing your vote. It fits in with the primary themes used against Labour and especially Brown - excessive centralisation, lack of accountability, waste of economic resources etc.
The Conservatives are finding it a juicy target, as are the BNP.
Mike - the ICM poll of 2005 voters showed that Cameron’s strategy has worked well ganing 2 (Labour and Lib Dem) voters for every Conservative lost. It showed Labour losing 2 for each one gained. Brown’s support must be predominantly coming from previous non-voters, who are inevitably fickle and less likely to vote.
The media assault on Cameron seems to be petering out as the planned rebllion fom within - other than Qiuentin Davies - has been a damp squib.
Very happy with these polls. Shows without a shadow of a doubt there was and is a brown bounce. I think that 9% was a little overstated, and the 6% lead seems about right. I think that if any polls are carried out with their fieldwork around now then they will show a lab dip as a result of brown meeting bush. Not that i think he handled it badly, he was caught between a rock and a hard place, i mean its obviouse he would get a short term gain from declaring that bush can go screw himself, but this is not good government. So i think that the reminder of the uk’s relatively unpopular position relative to america would result in a small fall.
Most importantly from this i think is the fact that it does appear to show that brown isnt just getting his boast from lab heartlands, ie there is voter volitility. I have no doubt that come a general election there will be an increase in labours certainty to vote as the election looks closer than before.
So good polls for us, good to see the tories back in their box, (the cheek to even get out!!) and finally, finally the lib dems are appearing to show a drop in support. Personally i can’t believe they were so resiliant.
I believe all the pollsters have now conducted polls since Brown took office, would love to see what Jack’s ARSE can make of this.
Also, and tory hacks are gonna love this, the bbc has decided to run an article on their front page about this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6923304.stm
The lead on the news homepage is “tory actavist attacks cameron.”
Now just remember children, I think that the daily politics, this week, nick robinson, and the whole of ITV news is incredibly anti labour.
The Times is running the story about Saatchi and Leign - again as if they were new. Now the BBC are running this again - all about Tony Lit. It’s all last month’s news and has been wrapping fish and chips for weeks. They’re running out of anti-Cameron material.
The ICM chart on PB two days ago showing that all Brown’s support must be coming from previous non-voters was ignored by pollsters. The likelihood of people voting who didn’t vote before should have been more heavily discounted. The Brown Bounce is pretty illusory.
The Independent also leads with an anti-cameron - Men Not Supporting Cameron. Why not ‘Women Are Staying Loyal To Cameron’!!!
I think if you keep having this vision that the media are out to get Cameron and the Tories you should get some urgent professional help down there in the bunker.
The reasons Cameron is suffering is that 2 years is too long without much policy, PR is no substitute, and he is trying to make the Tories into something a lot of their supporters hate.
Trying to outwet the LDs is not going to work, I think Blair was right (and this is a first) that the big clunking fist will get the votes every time. Remember Thatcher?
further to Jon, I really really think that its a bit curlish of tories to complain about media bias. I would quite happily swap the clout of the mirror and the guardian (although that is hardly pro labour - just left wing) for that of the mail, the telegraph.
6 - “The Brown Bounce is pretty illusory.”
While I’d like to think that, and while a portion of the “BB” seems to be derived from apathetic sections of the electorate registering in polls as they respond to the change in PM… the BB seems also to be fueled by “soft left” voters (”Guardian Man and Woman”?) registering as Labour supporters once again with Blair out of the equation and at the same time more moderate voters seem inclined to register as Labour supporters even if just as an instance of giving Brown the “benefit of the doubt”.
There is evidence to suggest the “BB” is “soft”… but I’m not sure thats the same as it being “illusory”.
I am not a polling expert but doesnt the fact that the tories are back in their box imply that brown has got back some of the voters that flirted with the tories as a result of the new tory leader?
I know that these are respected polling organisations, but I simply do not believe that if there were a General Election tomorrow, the LibDems would only get 15% (Populus) or 16% (CR).
Reading the, ‘ritual whinge’ about the press from Tories is highly amusing, it very much resembles the, ‘ritual whinge’ that Labour made back in the eighties. I don’t remember too many Tories complaining when, the then Fleet Street, headlined the ‘Looney left councils’ just about every single day when Benn/Livingstone were attacked and pilloried every single day. What Cameron is getting is small fry to what happened then!
As for the polls, the true support for the main parties has not changed much for years, it has been remarkably consistent. Labour 36/37% Tories 32/33% Libdems 18/20% (think these low readings underrate them) the complication is the floating 5% who float between the main parties, very news concious, mainly left/liberals alienated by Blair because of Iraq, moved to the Tories because of Cameron, have now returned to Labour. An added problem the rise of, ‘the others’ voters who dislike the three main parties, in Scotland/Wales likely to support the nationalists, in England BNP/UKIP, very difficult to determine what influence they will have on the next GE. The likely/less likely to vote, I’m very dubious about that question, on the day, whose to say whether that will be the case?
Again, very pleased with these polls. 6% sounds about right to me. And as for CR, 5% up is good, but the lead swings so violently with CR they seem very unreliable. I never believed a 5% Tory lead in their last poll, when every other poll was showing at least a substantial narrowing of the Tory lead, if not a Labour takeover. But I will take the lead, thanks very much!
Though the novelty of the new leader will disappear it’ll be replaced by a much more confident Prime Minister. Blair thought of Brown as a better politician than himself and the best strategist in the Labour Party.
In the last month we’ve seen glimpses of this strategy at work-he’s running rings round his opponents-and in America we saw the politician at work. The coverage was universally good- he kept his distance without being impolite.
It’s not too late for Cameron to get his act to-gether (though I’m not sure he has the ability) and my guess is like Hague he’ll return to a core vote strategy.
So say goodbye to the stunts! No more air miles Dave!
5. The lead on the news homepage is “tory actavist attacks cameron.”
They obviously made a spelling mistake. It should read “Tory atavist attacks Cameron”
Mike will clearly have to think about how to represent negative figures on the Roger scale as the Cameron creep picks up.
re 15. If the Tories ever get back in the lead then they will be represented in the same way as my multi-Gordons. What I have not worked out yet is what to do if they are level-pegging. Do I just show a blank or have 5 DCs and 5 GBs?
16 - or you could have a morphing shot of them both combined
What ever your politics, whatever your feelings about Iraq and Afghanistan reasd this. Its good to know, that for some people, nothing in this country should be allowed to get in the way of the most important thing of all, ‘house prices’ Thank God! some people have got their priorities right. (Irony if you didn’t recognise it)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/military/story/0,,2138249,00.html
History repeats itself/ These polls show pretty much what I expected. IMHO there is no chance Brown will go early, there never was, having waited 13 yrs since Grantita, He was never going to risk an election unless Labour were 15 pts ahead. Lets look at the polls in 3 months time. We might see a different picture.
11 Disraeli ” I simply dont believe that if there were a general elction tomorrow The Lib dems would get 15%(Populus) or 16% (CR)”
Nor does ICM which produced 20% only last week( though straightvafter the by elections.However what is clear is that Lib Dem support is consistently below the last election figure of 23% and is being as Mike says squeezed from both sides .
Therewis alot of noise at present about David Chamelion but as leader of the oppsition he has the opportunity to bounce back. It is diifucult to see any poosibility of a Lib Dem bounce back.Their dilemmma is clear-thet have a a leader with little electoral appeal- but will changing bring any benefits in the sqeeze scenario,and with an elction maybe sooner would a new leader have time to be established. Th elatest tinme for a decision is post September conference.What odds on Ming surviving?
Rogerh
Cameron talking about school discipline. Methinks I am a prophet!
Interesting article Mike well done. This is a much higher standard of poll interpretation than the stuff we get in the main stream media.
I have stopped reading newspaper articles on polls because the journalists are so ill-informed.
10. That’s one of two main possibilities. The other (hinted at above by Mike) is that Labour is getting support from previous non-voters. If a greater proportion of people are intending to vote, then the Tory share will drop if that support goes disproportionately elsewhere.
The focus (rightly) on Cameron’s present difficulties is taking the pressure off Ming, but it is there that real pressure also lies. That’s not a good score and unlike Disraeli at [11], I think it a realistic figure in current circumstances. Ming has been invisible for a while now and the negative reasons to vote Lib Dem are dropping off. As an aside, with most Lib Dem seats having the Tories as the main challangers, a drop in the Lib Dem share of more than a quarter of their 2005 vote would produce a good number of Tory gains even if the relative position against Labour is unchanged.
He is now rubbishing his critics-even accusing his ex collegue of asking for a peerage-he doesn’t get it does he. When a collegue of Brown called him Stalinist he didn’t go on the airwaves rubbishing him. He say’s Stanley Kalms doesn’t know what’s going on. He’s behaving like a spoilt schoolboy. His interviewer has just sais you’ve rubbished everyone I’ve put to you!
He’s not good!
Mike - are you completely stupid? They are 3 completely different pollsters.
Not my words, the charge levelled at me when I raised a similar point on the last thread last night.
Having been called “completely stupid” and “a tofu-head” last night, I think I may stay away for a little while until things settle down and the grating triumphalism of Labour supporters at a modest poll lead after 18 months in the doldrums recedes along with the poll ratings. And until Sean T gets his referendum.
I join in here for a bit of lighthearted banter and informed political discussion, not personal abuse. Clearly there are a number of contributors here who would rather engage in the latter…
24. Perhaps Brown thought that description was a compliment
First time I’ve heard Dave under pressure. He doesn’t like it and more to the point he’s not very good at it. I hope he is accurate about someone demanding a peerage off him yesterday. He shouldn’t have mentioned it anyway. As for Kalms and Saatchi-not the brightest move insulting them in public! One bankrolls him the other is one of the greatest practioners in advertising in the the world. Lets hope he doesn’t set his copywriters loose! And as for Brady-can you imagine Blair insulting Frank Field in public?
If we do have a spring 08 election, looking back on the Populus polls in 2004, the Lib Dems show the biggest changes. They were at 24 in July 04 and Sept 04. Now down at 15 that is a massive loss of just over 1/3rd of their support.
Interesting that the Conservatives are portrayed as suffering the most from the “Brown bounce” whereas the Lib Dems have suffered the most. It keeps the heat of Ming which maybe a good thing for the Conservatives in the longer term.
Unless there were to be a political cataclysm an event similar to the Winter of discontent/ERM disaster, coupled with much improved polling techniques, the days of the 15% lead are over!
The sort of lead labour is now getting, is more than enough to justify an early election, October the 25th: maybe.
I join in here for a bit of lighthearted banter and informed political discussion, not personal abuse. Clearly there are a number of contributors here who would rather engage in the latter…
Well Bob you’ve obviously not tangled with seant at his most vitriolic. If the first sign of a resurgent Labour Party and its supporters sends you scurrying for cover, Mr Cameron is not best served by the internal fortitude of his supporters.
Bob. I’m surprised you read SeanT I thought everyone just scrolled past? I wouldn’t have known about his insults if you hadn’t drawn attention to them
[23] It’s presumably due to the small number of prospective punters that there aren’t separate spread-betting markets on the number of seats the Tories will take off the Lib Dems and off Labour next time. Though I’m sure Our Genial Host would approve of their being created.
From PODWAS’s POV, a gain from Labour is worth two or three from the Lib Dems - he surely couldn’t survive a result in which he took almost none off Labour whilst picking up 30+ from the Lib Dems; the other way round produces a weird echo of October ‘74 & the “story” would be “Labour’s last hurrah” and PODWAS would cry “one more heave”.
PODWAS??
To answer Mike’s question a few weeks back, Labour are now ahead of no overall majority on the betfair market…
I just don’t understand how this can ‘ease the pressure’ on Cameron. Of course there would be some kind of ‘Brown Bounce.’ But do people not realise, that there is NO EXCUSE for the tories to not have a lead in the polls?! Labour have surpassed all expectations, and it is clear that people just do not want the tories back, under ANY circumstances!
[32] PODWAS = Poor Old Dave What A Shame (as used in text messages by Tory MPs about their leader)…
INNOCENT - do you have a link to explain further?
Inevitably the story that now leads the news is Mr Miraj demanding a peerage yesterday. It’ll be interesting to hear his response.
PODWAS.
[36] It was in one of the Sunday papers, I think - I came across it whilst reading yesterday morning’s thread IIRC - it’s far too good for me to have made it up myself, after all
re 37 I agree with Roger. I thought it was a mistake for Cameron to mention the peerage. He’s just making more enemies.
Cameron seems to be in a hole but has refused to stop digging. This latest outburst will keep his troubles on the front page for another day at least.
main story on the bbc now about cameron and this peerage thing, here comes two days worth of news at least and then he leaves for brittany
41: “here comes two days worth of news at least and then he leaves for brittany”
Now that is a story!
Spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin !
(I thought I’d join in with the thread)
Blimey, the left-leaners are out in force Cameron-bashing this morning. The BBC head-lining some minor activist criticism - the bloke isn’t even an MP, they’re scraping the barrel now. As I’ve said before, there not a single centre-right paper in this country so Cameron was always going to get attacked from both sides.
“Now just remember children, I think that the daily politics, this week, nick robinson, and the whole of ITV news is incredibly anti labour.”
Left-wing socialists always think the liberal-left is shamefully right-wing, what’s new?
We can see from the polls today Brown’s lead is drying up already, and while I don’t believe its down to 3% it should have mostly gone by Christmas. The media seem to be staying with their “Brown boost continues” narrative for now, but its in our interest for the positive “Cameron comes back from behind” line to be put out later rather than sooner, and it will come in time. I’m sure these polls (along with the next ones) will, as expected, dry up any of Brown’s plans to have an election this year.
I think DC’s doing a good job in dismissing this criticism from a tiny minority in the party. He just needs to continue what he’s doing and the voters will come back. If he wins without any major newspaper or the BBC supporting him it will be a triumph for democracy.
25. Bob Sykes.
Someone who is frightened off a site, by my calling them ‘tofu-head’, clearly hasn’t been here very long.
Puh-leeze. I can do a LOT worse than that, as most on here will attest. Including the lovely Woger, who, though he claims to scroll past my posts, always seems able to remember them.
Indeed, I think I may be becoming the Daily Mail of pb.com. Something everyone denies reading, but everyone secretly reads.
I can vouch for this analogy. I sometimes write for the Daily Mail itself. And when I do, I inevitably get a call from a lefty friend saying: ‘Oh I saw your piece!’
‘What, in the Mail? You buy the Daily Mail??’
Cue flustered lefty.
‘Er, uhm, no, uh, I saw it at my dentist’s.’
Yeah, right.
5
‘Also, and tory hacks are gonna love this, the bbc has decided to run an article on their front page about this.’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6923304.stm
Ali Miraj is the Tory candidate that can’t get adopted for any of the Tory seats,he asked Cameron for a peerage and was refused,so you could say that he might have an agenda!
re 44 and 46 - the point i was making is that this was a non story that didnt deserve to be covered on the front page of the political subsection of the bbc, let alone the main section. Having said that cameron has just poured fuel on the fire by even bringing up the peerage so expect a response from ali miraj and it to rumble on for a few days now
46. On the other hand you could say that DC has done the right thing - out this plonker as a twat on the make. If his other detractors get tarred with the same brush then thats a bonus.
A qwik flash of my ARSE before it’s covered up for a short summer break(ing) WIND news :
WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a fresh ARSE poll of polls comprising ICM, Populus, MORI, CR and YouGov that gives :
Con 33.2% .. Lab 39.2% .. LibDem 16.4% .. Others 11.2%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 222 seats .. Lab 360 .. LibDem 40 .. Others 28.
Labour maj 70.
………………………
Sources :
WIND …. Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN ….. Jacobite News Network
ARSE …. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
PISSED .. Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES .. System Of Amending Measured Election Scores.
47
You are probably right that it was a non story,so you have to ask why the BBC raised it.So are you saying that Cameron should not have given us the full picture and explained why Ali Miraj was so pissed off when he was refused a peerage?
47. Fair enough. I don’t think this is particular BBC bias though (although they do have some), it just goes with their narrative at the moment.
Seems Dave doesn’t like it up him. He gets very rattled very easily.
As for these polls, they seem to show a consistent bounce. To say that Gordon’s appeal is waning and pointing to 9-6-3% leads obviously doesn’t take into account the different organisations and their methodologies. Look at Polulous (Lab up 2%) and CR - which I don’t put much faith in BTW (Lab up 5%) for the trend.
Come on Bob - come back, don’t let the buggers get you down.
The BBC get Graham Taylor to provide “expert summary” on England games - they have track record in giving clueless losers a platform to comment on the incumbent leader.
47. Cameron does have a tendency to play the man not the ball when he’s annoyed- Miraj, Kalms, UkIP (remember that?) Nothing wrong with an aggressive response in itself (as long as it’s true) but it should be someone else doing this, not Cameron.
No Idea why Cameron wants to get into a row with a aspiring-PPC by basically calling him a grasping hack.
I suppose it’s a way of warning off others, but it looks unpleasant and vaguely spiteful (again, I’m talking at the level of pure image.)
Can’t see what other option DC had - it’s only a non-story if nobody covers it. However the BBC ran with the original diatribe, so Cameron obviously had to respond.
As Jamie 48 just said, the story now isn’t so much “DC on rack yet again” it’s “Some bloke wanted a peerage and is now throwing his toys out of the pram”.
Cameron could try and push these sorts of things under the carpet, but they’d just keep coming back. Hence the boil lancing.
He’s also helped himself today by doing something on schools.
As for bounces, media coverage etc, I’m starting to think the whole Bash Cameron is starting to tire a little bit. Brown will probably be ahead for a little while still, due to his political honeymoon, but probably by the 3-4% and no higher.
A few weeks ago the talk was all of Cameron needing a ‘clause 4′ moment - forcing a fight against the old guard to prove that the party has changed.
To be fair to Today this morning they were (for once) asking the questions the public want answered - ‘the Tories have developed a taste for dumping leaders, how long have you got?’ is a good example.
What Cameron has needed to demonstrate is steel, people want strong leaders and Camerons extended honeymoon has meant that the public haven’t been able to measure him under pressure or judge him when he is seriously under fire.
Once he has faced down his critics and been seen to increase his authority over the party his personal ratings will improve even further; at just the time the Brown will be having his first serious challenges.
Bet on a 2010 election.
52
Enjoy it while it lasts!
One intriguing thing about these Lib Dems supposedly returning to Brown’s Labour is just what kind of Lib Dems they really are.
GB is turning into of the most authoritarian and non-democratic PMs in recent times - worse even than Blair.
Supercasinos banned, cannabis reclassified, 56 day detention, full speed ahead on ID cards, no consultation on the referendum, hints of tighter alcohol licensing, non-jury trials for terrorists. Etc etc.
If these Lib Dem voters like this type of policy, what sort of “liberal democrats” were they in the first place?
55. Another option
“Well of course, Ali has his opinion, but lets look at the facts… we’ve put the Consevatives in the centre ground, gained a thouand councillors, forced Labour to dump their leader and made Gordo Brown simultaemously steal our policies and attack us for not having any.
For an opposition party that’s serious results.
Of course the big test is the next General Election, but does anyone really imagine that the old conservative party wold be better placed to beat Gordon Brown. ”
After the interview Andy Coulson or whoever wanders round the lobby pouring poison in ears about Miraj.
[45] Sean, I’m just back from the barber’s and not a Daily Wail there for love nor money, should I start patronising a new one?
A pedant writes: No, leave the patronising to Sean. He’s so much better at it than you are.
“Once he has faced down his critics and been seen to increase his authority over the party his personal ratings will improve even further; at just the time the Brown will be having his first serious challenges.”
You may be right. However, Marcus, you are again mistaking your own wishes for the likely course of event. I doubt things will pan out as well as you predict / wish, just as the last few weeks have probably not panned out as you expected.
I could, of course, say that in the coming weeks the LDs will announce many policy initiatives that will capture the imagination of the media and public. We can even expect a modest poll lead after the conference season, as Brown and Cameron face challenges. But I would not say that, as my feet are on the ground.
Most Tories on this site have not had their feet on the ground for many months.
59 - bet that will be used eventually
54. If you actually see him on a video clip talking about it he comes over very relaxed. I actually imagine most normal people (not us politics obsessives) assume that every Tory criticising Dave is an old-style right-winger. Thus this story will probably be interpreted by most people as the right-wing trying to manipulate Dave and throwing a wobbly when it doesn’t work. As this is their perception of the hard right (mainly thanks to Alistair Campbell) they won’t think twice about it. Just looks favourable on Cameron.
“Once he has faced down his critics and been seen to increase his authority over the party his personal ratings will improve even further; at just the time the Brown will be having his first serious challenges.”
He’ll also get an extra boost of freshness when his poll ratings overtake Brown again and he’ll be billed as “the comeback kid”.
62. Always happy to help a failing leader facing repeated and consistent attacks on his credibility.. we want him winged, not down!:)
The narrative at the moment is not “What new policies do the Tories have?” but “Cameron defends his leadaership - again”. This is not good for the Tories. Luckily for him, the summer break is almost upon us.
61. Actually some of us Tories did agree there would be a Brown bounce. Admittedly its higher than we imagined - I actually said it would be in the line of 4-5% - but only Roger guessed it would be as big as it was.
Oh, and if any newspaper editor is reading this, give Mike Smithson a job analysing polls from now on. Your guys seem like amateurs by comparison.
O/T
1) - GOODWOOD
Anybody wanting an interesting speculative bet this afternoon should have a look at Assertive in the the 3.25, available at 25/1 with Ladbrokes. Obviously at those odds you are taking a chance but it is a good value each way punt.
2) - FREE MONEY ON SPREADS
Once again there’s a mismatch between Sporting Index and Cantor on Labour seats. You can sell at 315 with Sporting and buy at 313 on Cantor. There’s £50 available so that’s £100 of free money for the first one to grab it.
I’m already up to my limit with SI, so no use to me.
65. That would be confusing a single story for the narrative. It’s actually “Brown comes in and surges in the poll, old right-wing Tories start bashing Cameron again, Cameron defends his leadership.”
Its inevitable that the media line is going to be negative at least sometimes, but the benefit of this one is that most swing voters will side with Cameron against the right-wingers (who they have been trained to hate).
67. You’re due a winner PtP - this could be the one
67. You’re due a winner PtP - this could be the one
67. You’re due a winner PtP - this could be the one
I think you’ll find that most swing voters will be turned off the whole party - divided parties rarely get anywhere electorally.
71 I’ll be happy with one, Jamie. Three would be greedy.
72. A party only seems divided if its big names (i.e. shadow cabinet members) disagreeing with each other. When its nobodies it just sounds like sniping from the fringes.
The term PODWAS was in a piece by Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph, if you go back into the archive of this site, you’ll find a link early Sunday.
Ali Miraj will respond to Cameron on The World at 1 on Radio 4.
76 - Cameron has needlessly extended a little spat into a headline grabbing row. Silly boy.
74 - although the sniping from the sidelines can build up a bit in voters minds if left unchecked.
http://www.pickledpolitics.com/archives/890
Ali Miraj’s piece on institutional racism in the Tories. The one removed from his blog.
SBS at 61 “You may be right. However, Marcus, you are again mistaking your own wishes for the likely course of event. I doubt things will pan out as well as you predict / wish, just as the last few weeks have probably not panned out as you expected”
But they have panned out exactly as I expected, the polls have switched and immediately the story editors want to dig out good stories on ‘it’s all gone wrong for Cameron’ as we knew and expected that they would.
Clearly Stanley Kalms and Lord Saatchi have been critics of Cameron from the start (from before the start, actually) the difference is that now they are newsworthy.
I repeat my point, the public (justifiably, given our decade of in-fighting) need to see that the Conservatives are stable and could be trusted to run the country; this is a test and we need to pass it.
If we fail then you could be right SBS and we would (deservedly) then not be seen as fit for office.
But there is not a cat in hells chance of that.
I hope for Cameron’s sake that Miraj does not dispute his version of events.
77- It will be interesting to see if Cameron’s “headline grabbing row” has an impact on the polls. As has been previously theorised by others there is a past history of being in the news, even for a negative, leading to a boost for Cameron (eg Grammar schools row, which was needlessly blown into a big story, only to give the Conservatives 2 more points or so in the polls). Much of Browns Bounce will be as a result of his saturation media coverage, it will be very interesting how this plays out now Cameron is hitting the front pages (albeit for a negative).
81 - he will, no doubt.
His trouble is, having seen him on telly once and read his blog before the Watford election in 2005, he comes across as the archetypal “I’m special, me” politician. The sort you’d like to slap in the face after about 10 seconds of meeting him.
Ah well at least Ali is not an MP, or it would be. ‘Move over Quentin, can I squeeze in next to you’
79 - that was the real downfall of Ali Miraj. Witham, the association which supposedly turned him down for being Asian, went on to select… an Asian candidate!
Interesting how the BBC are giving so much attention to a nobody like Miraj while ignoring the damning remarks about Brown made by two of his senior MPs in recent days.
Pretty damning stuff about the guy asking for a peerage, talk about idiotic!
Which brings me back to the fact that we still await the release of all the details about Cash for Honours, they’ve got to release them soon and, believe me, this isn’t going to go away, this particular boil has not been lanced and Brown needs to watch his back.
27 - When labour had to reposition their leader spent much time insulting parts of his party. The Kinnock anti-Militant conference speech was a masterpiece of invective.
Sometimes it’s necessary to ridicule those who oppose you, otherwise people think they are liked.
Assuming that there are quite a lot of people who work for MPs here, people might find this funny:
http://www.w4mp.org/html/library/altguide/mptranslator.asp
88 - Er, Kinnock did indeed face down Militant. In 1985. Another 12 years in opposition awaited the Labour party.
Yes, I agree that Cameron may be the Tories’ Kinnock.
87. Brown won’t personally suffer for cash for honours. It was clear in the second half of Blair’s reign that there were two camps operating entirely separately. Brown was nowhere near it.
Cameron on Education… feels like standard cameroonie boilerplate with a nod to the right by talking about family, discipline and so on.
Also sounds like they thought it up last night.
90. That was because while Kinnock expelled a few extreme trots, Labour continued to espouse trot policies - nationalisation, unilateralism, swingeing tax increases etc. etc.
58 - Exactly Sean, the sort of lib dems who aren’t worthy of the name, I think that they could be replaced by an appeal to the anti-politics vote, paint the other parties as all the same and then give them a reason to vote rather than abstain. Those left in the other parties are too flaky.
Bob Sykes, Sean T is a pillock and everyone who’s anyone on PB has been insulted by him.
95 Makes me feel small, Test. I’ve always wanted to be insulted by SeanT. Never had the honor.
Peter the P Shouldn’t be difficult to arrange. Repeat after me. The EU’s not as bad as it’s painted in the British media. Should do the trick.
90 - Kinnock’s major problem was that he took his party a bit towards the centre but not enough for the electorate to believe it. He should have been even stronger and ripped into his labour opponents whilst esposuing more centrist policies. He was too faint hearted.
Haven’t checked out Camerons education announcement yet, will report back and try and pick it apart…..
I was quite impressed by the way Ali Miraj campaigned in Watford, but I’m not sure what’s got into him lately.
There is some merit in some of his points, but they’d be best expressed privately.
does anyone know where you can watch kinnocks anti militant speach on the internet?
Voluntary Sector behaviour units; well the current ones are not great but what will change this by doing something else?
Stopping exclusion appeals and home-school contracts; good ideas, although the schools need to be able to operate independently.
Full anonymity for accused teachers - this is so obvious that I can’t understand why it isn’t happening now.
What is not there is more important, however, such as matters of curriculum and school organisation. Not a lot to agree or disagree with really.
Well, interesting line in your article Mike. I still don’t think we will know what is going on for a while, poll wise.
97 Won’t work, Blue Moon. He knows my views on the EU but he also knows I agree on the need for a referendum. That apparently exempts me from punishment.
He also knows I not only bought but read and enjoyed his book, so he has me marked down as a good guy.
Not much I can do about it.
Red flag - no, but tell us if you find it. I looked a few months ago and couldn’t even find a transcript of it beyond the most famous passage, let alone a video.
58, 94. “One intriguing thing about these Lib Dems supposedly returning to Brown’s Labour is just what kind of Lib Dems they really are.”
The point is that they are “returning”. They really never were Lib Dems but long-term Labour supporters who have put up with all sorts of authoritarianism but couldn’t support Blair’s invasion of Iraq. The fact that Brown supported the invasion and is basically promising continuity of purpose in that respect just underlines how desperate these people are to return to what they see as their natural home. Some of the BB will be bankable. The BBB.
Paul. I know you wont want to give A Cambell any of your hard earned money but try getting his diaries out of the library.
My only knowledge of politics from the inside was a PPB for the Lib Dems-the first under Paddy’s leadership. The only reason I did that was because the writer of the broadcast was a senior writer at JWT-a good client- who asked for a favour for free. It was a pretty easy narrative. Lots of footage of broken down Britain intercut with close-ups of Paddy saying how passionate he felt about this human waste.
Reading AC’s book makes me realize how out of date this way of doing things is. Though there seems to be a lot of scrabbling around under the surface the movement and direction is part of a grand plan. There are day to day issues-read Britspin’s template-and then there is the strategy. Kinnocks speech didn’t just come out of thin air as Cameron’s attacks on his critics are doing. It was part of a plan. It doesn’t seem like Cameron has one.
Some interesting comments from Mike. It seems an appropriate time for the web-site to address how long is Ming likely to remain as leader and who would replace him.
Yes Cameron may have taken a risk over the “peerage” story but far better for him that he does this than effectively be blackmailed or appear to be weak.
I am amazed by comments from both Labour & Tory supporters above which suggest they are confident they know where the polls will go in the Autumn. We are in “uncharted waters” and both the possibility of the Tories recovering their lead by say October & the alternative of Labour moving further ahead are real options.
Anthony - I found this, it has a clip of it the 85 speach in the middle - its the labour party broadcast from 1987
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/07/31/has-the-brown-bounce-run-out-of-steam/
103. I note you read his book. Do millions of women now want you? Where did you say you could get a copy?
95. Mrs Test, you are close to breaking our vow of non aggression. Anymore of these playground insults and matron will have to hit you with a cold spoon.
You know how much it hurts - because you always run off crying, then come back posing as someone else, two weeks later.
Be good now.
106 - You’re right Roger, I wont be giving Campbell any of my #money, I also dislike his form of politicking intensely. He is the problem and not, in any way, a solution.
Don’t forget, I was in the labour party at the time of Kinnock and as, what he would have seen as, one of his opponents. From my inside knowledge of that his problem was that he didn’t do things quickly and ruthlessly enough, he reacted to events rather than having a plan.
Re 107, Mike I, Yes you are right the polls could go either way.
109.
http://www.play.com/Books/Books/4-/1813095/Millions-of-Women-are-Waiting-to-Meet-You/Product.html
£4 for a brand new copy. Can’t say fairer than that for a lifetime of hilarity and insight. And, if you agree with me on a referendum, I’ll sign it for you. In fact if you buy it I’ll become a europhile.
And people say I’m cheap.
Regarding the decline in Brown’s poll performance discussed in today’s article. What might this be down to? MoE? Floods? A shortage of spontaneous and well-delivered gags at PMQs?
111 - You wew in Kinnock’s Labour Party and now you’re a Tory? What happened?
114 - There is no “decline” in Brown’s performance - look at the individual organisations - Labour up across the board and increasing with some.
114 - Brown as he became leader became an empty vessel filled with people’s hopes and expectations, the terrorist attacks only fuelled that, from this point onwards Brown now has to deal with reality, however, and he cannot fulfil the disparate expectations that there are of him.
A good example will be the Bush visit, people can say how well it went and whatever, but the actuality of it will start to shift voters, those who liked the Blairite position will be disappointed *or* those who felt the opposite will be disappointed.
This is why I believe Brown would be best served by an Autumn election; his psychological unpreparedness for this, however, could cost him.
Re 114, James F, “Regarding the decline in Brown’s poll performance discussed in today’s article. What might this be down to? MoE? Floods? A shortage of spontaneous and well-delivered gags at PMQs?”
It could be a number of things like the earlier polls or indeed these ones being wrong.
If all the polls are reflecting a change in sentiment then it could just be that Brown got a bounce out of exuberance.
115. I think the clue is in the line “as one of his opponents”- UK Paul was a trot, probably, and it’s much easier to move from being a trot to being a rightwinger than many think.
114. I think it is probably Brown is ceasing to be a novilty, the switch from Blair to Brown after so many years is a change in personality. This is does not mean he is going to lead ballon either. I do think however he may have stored trouble for himself in the long run in the way he has orchestrated his attacks on Cameron - whilst i do conceed they have been succesful and some silly idiots within the tory party have fallen for the bate (That “tory activist” has just ended his career IMO - to say that on the telly - pointless).
In the longer run Brown’s charges may ring hollow with swing voters, the captulation to Tory ideas and the drift toward accepting tory policy in an number of areas. In addition some of the most unpopular planks of the “Labour Government” from 1997 - ongoing are still there and they have not changed - Yes Brown has substance but it is also baggage!!!
I think in the longer run Brown could well fall fowl of Cameron’s current predicament as i don’t think Labour activists have thought that Labour is too left wing in the recent past. So Brown has sent out some conflicting signals that then open him to Flip Flopping or open deciet.
115 - I’m a liberal (voting lib dem) you plank. Don’t listen to tyson, he has his own agenda because he can’t dismiss someone like me, unless he misrepresents me.
It was good to find many similar lib dems at the book launch, there are a lot of lib dem activists from tory areas here and they, understandably, give you a false position of what a lib dem supporter actually is.
I was a teenage Trot by the way, I attended LPYS conference and was elected later, via NOLS, as a student and also attended NUS conference as such.
Labour, however, have become too illiberal for someone like me. Any party that has gone so far to the authoritarian side is no place for someone who believes in freedom of the individual. I see new labour as the natural home for disaffected tories in fact, you are much closer to teh tory party than I could ever be.
I’m sorry, but at the moment there is simply no “decline”. Unless you are doing a Bob Sykes and going, “mmm, 9% to 6% to 3% - Labour are going down!”
118. Alternatively he may simply have grown up.
118 - You’re right with the Trot bit, I do, however, see new labour as being to the right of me so I haven’t changed in my relative position. Labour and the new tories are really in the same area and I see you as pretty much similar, which makes it even more hilarious given any attempts to misrepresent.
I suppose you could call me an ultra-liberal. I’m pretty much in the centre (and to the left of the other main parties) but way way off the scale regarding libertarianism.
116. I agree with almost all of that apart from the example you choose to illustrate the point. I agree with Roger at 14 when he says “he kept his distance without being impolite”. This was noticeably different from Blair’s fawning and will please those who were hoping for a bit more distance in the relationship.
121. Well depends on how you look at it i think Labour were at 41% but they were in different polls and i suppose it is within the margin of error. Certainly Labour have reached a glass ceiling and are static from your point of view on a poll of poll basis. Less charitable view is Labour are in reverse.
Either way it is just a poll and given that both main parties are in the 30’s bracket - it is all to play for.
Some Labour gloaters have recently talked about Labour landslides - I think this is very wide of the mark indeed. THe old Hung parliament is still the most likely proposition in IMO as it has been for quite some time. As i have said before the LD’s are far too low on 15% - they are a bare minimum of 18% i think and quite possibly 18 - 20% for next GE.
I often look at the top of a thread to see who has the most angst about the story above. Today it seems the Labour Praetorians are carpet bombing the early morning spaces. Wonder what they are worried about?
124 - But, and this was my point, it will disappoint those who want to continue the Blair approach (and there are quite a few neocons in labour circles, witness the Euston Manifesto).
I am implacably opposed to neo-connery (not Sean) whatever party it appears in. Liberal imperialism is an oxymoron for morons.
116, 124. Sorry correction. There’s another bit of 116 that I disagree with. “psychological unpreparedness”. Is this a reference to his failure to finish of Blair?
125. I did not see the communicate poll until i posted that. That does look like Labour in a bit of a decline doesn’t it.
127. How then do you feel about your former party leader Ashdown having wielded colonial governor-style authority in Bosnia, including the ability to dismiss elected officials?
Red Flag - link doesn’t work, but I found the same clip on YouTube. Thanks!
128 - No, something different, just that he is so prepared for his first few years of being PM that, as he is faced with a chance of an election that could give him an increased majority, he is unprepared to go to the country. He should call an election but he is not psychologically prepared for it.
109 Millions of women have always wanted me, Blue Moon.
You can buy the book in most ‘Adult’ shops. You can buy it in a lot of other places too, but it’s more fun searching for it in Adult shops.
Sean T, a few months ago wasn’t I a retired 50 year old Colonel who wasn’t getting any? Now I am apparently a housewife going through “the change”. Who will I be next week?
You are indeed a loser who can’t help but chuck “tofu head” and other insults around. It is a bit of a miracle that PtP cannot join the other 85% of us in the ‘Sean T’s bad book’ corner.
130 - I would rather it was someone like Ashdown than anybody else. The same way that, because we are in Iraq, I don’t think we should cut and run. The decision was made, I opposed it, but now you have to do what is right regarding the situation that we are faced with.
126. Yes Nick Palmer must have been axious to post once he got news of these polls. If he had not said he was in the states i would have thought there is a worried man posting at 4:30AM in the morning!!! Still he felt it was his duty to post and spin an appropriate response. That is commitment for you on holiday and still posting stuff or is he on business like a parliamentry visit to inspect the hotel and catering industry???!!!!
No just joking there!!!
Peter the P Silly me.
I think I should put together an FAQ on my political beliefs to link to as, every month or two, I have to explain it yet again. It’d be so much easier to be a die hard supporter of some party I feel.
To add to the above, I often drift into an abstentionist position. Mainly because I dislike lib dem election tactics and it rubs me up the wrong way. The things that I *really* dislike are negative campaigning and a lack of positivity in politics and the corruption inherent in the system and the way it is glossed over.
But those who supported Blair’s neo-connery (which I’m immediately appropriating as a phrase) are far fewer in number that those who opposed. And neo-connery is out of fashion. Brown’s distance from Bush will look good I think and entrench the BBB.
As for ‘psychological unpreparedness’ - yes, I see what you mean and you have a point. He’d like to be in charge for a while. But I don’t think this will weigh so heavily in the balance that it will stop him seeking re-election this Autumn if that’s looks like his best bet. And I think, for the same reasons as you, that it will be.
123. I know it’s poor form to tie someone to their teenage politics- but I’m intrigued- I never saw the Trots as being particularly libertarian. Culturally rebellious yes, but most trot organisations I ever came into contact with were horrifically centralised, being run out of some kind of central committee with everyone in lockstep…
140. Indeed, but teenage politics, in most cases, is about as permanent as teenage girlfriends.
My voting pattern goes UKIP - Tory - Lib Dem.
So much for becoming more right-wing with age. I fully expect to be leading a hippy commune by the time I’m 40.
140 - I know, I found out by my early twenties that, what I perceived as a distrust of ‘the system’ was not best served by its replacement with a different, but equally statist, system.
Redflump. I think that the last two ICM polls showed Labour ahead by 7 and 6% respectively. Mike suggests the raw data for this poll would give them a 4-5% lead using ICM’s methodology. So there has been a small decline. Within MoE as I said, but possibly something else.
122. I don’t know how people who were communists at university can dismiss the accusation with “I’ve grown up since”. People are 21 by the time they leave university, and communism, like fascism or religious fundamentalism, are philosophies for people with the thinking mind of a 15-year-old.
141 - UKIP?!?
Interesting that we’ve arrived at a similar conclusion from two completely different positions.
Maybe I am missing the point about these polls which Mike and others are interpreting as less good for Brown. Mike refers to 4 pollsters who all use different methodologies. And all are showing an increase in support for Labour and Brown since their last poll, giving Labour a lead ranging from 3-9%.
The smallest lead is from Communicate Research at 3%. But this is 5% higher than their last poll position for Labour. So 3 of these pollsters show a 6%+ lead for Labour and the other shows their position improving by 5%.
I struggle to see how these results are bad news.
Re 141, Julian H, “So much for becoming more right-wing with age. I fully expect to be leading a hippy commune by the time I’m 40.”
145 - I’m from quite an insular northern working class background, in a situation like that you don’t get to experience other lives much, only beyond university did I get the necessary life experience. I’ve made up for it since then, by moving around, both geographically and socially though.